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Atlantic Files
Jun 21 2021

The failure of the Biden doctrine exposes the true emerging contours
of the world
John C. Hulsman

The White House/Flickr

G7
Joe Biden

“Lofty words cannot construct an alliance or maintain it; only concrete deeds can do that.”

–John F. Kennedy

Albert Einstein perfectly summed up political risk thinking when he said, “Everything should be made as
simple as possible, but not simpler.” The best analysts understand that there is an absolute need to explain a
planet of infinite complexities in accurate, relatable terms that captures the essence of what is going on.
However, there is an accompanying great danger that the drive toward elegant simplicity intellectually
morphs into a shallow caricature of the world that fundamentally misleads.

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At last week’s G7 meeting in Cornwall, the US President Joe Biden’s theory of the world was found wanting,
proving to be an oversimplification of a very complicated place. Faced with a new era with two discernible
superpowers (the US and China), the new President is rightly aware that the key to ultimate success in this
bipolar competition is which superpower crafts genuine alliances with the great powers just below it, in order
of importance (the Anglosphere countries, the EU, Japan, India, and Russia).

Biden, correctly condemning the outgoing Trump administration for not doing enough to curry favour with
these great powers—which, unlike during the US–Soviet Cold War, now have a great deal of latitude in
setting the trajectories of their respective foreign policies—sees a geostrategic opening here based on
ideology. He correctly points out that the great democratic powers are all more pro-American than they are
pro-Chinese, while Russia is closer to China. This, Biden is certain, is the basic new strategic division in the
world.

Biden, correctly condemning the outgoing Trump administration for not doing enough to curry favour
with these great powers—which, unlike during the US–Soviet Cold War, now have a great deal of
latitude in setting the trajectories of their respective foreign policies—sees a geostrategic opening here
based on ideology

It is here that Biden’s worldview slips from simple to simplistic. Of course, Biden hopes that this democracy
versus autocracy theme has intellectual legs (fawning US commentators have even labelled the new idea ‘the
Biden Doctrine’), as it suits America’s geostrategic position. With the Anglosphere, India, Japan, and the EU
all firmly on the US’ side (with only economically sclerotic Russia supporting China), America is likely to
retain its pre-eminent global role into the new era.

The G7 meeting served as perfect experimental template for Biden’s thesis, as its membership comprises
most of the other great powers in question: The EU (Germany, France, and Italy), Japan, and the Anglosphere
countries (UK, Canada). Surely, all these democratic allies would easily coalesce around a common position
balancing China?

Of course, they did not. Beyond the abundant flummery of the G7 meeting—by far, its most important
initiative, the plan for putting a common floor on global taxation of multinationals (Amazon, Google,
Facebook), was worked out well in advance of the photo ops in Cornwall—almost nothing of substance was
agreed about how to commonly deal with China, which is by far the single most important foreign policy
challenge faced by the democratic grouping.

The G7 countries did agree to yet another World Health Organisation (WHO) investigation into the causes of
the pandemic. However, given the WHO’s appalling recent track record over this issue, the world needn’t
wait with bated breath. The official Communiqué, while clearly wishing to identify the elephant in the room,
hesitatingly mentions China in its narration of the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The real-world G7 diplomatic failure stands as an intellectual rebuke to Biden’s putative doctrine. This
is because, in his over-simplification of the world, the Wilsonian President has assumed that, just
because the democratic states have similar values, they are bound to have similar interests. The
ineffectual G7 meeting showed this to be a gross over-simplification

The real-world G7 diplomatic failure stands as an intellectual rebuke to Biden’s putative doctrine. This is
because, in his over-simplification of the world, the Wilsonian President has assumed that, just because the
democratic states have similar values, they are bound to have similar interests. The ineffectual G7 meeting
showed this to be a gross over-simplification. At present, as the meeting attests to, Japan, India, and the
Anglosphere countries are lining up firmly in the American camp on the need to balance against China.
However, both Russia (though certainly tilting towards Beijing) and the EU (tilting towards Washington) are
instead struggling to maintain more of a neutralist stance independent of either superpower.

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The Kremlin, fearful of its subordinate position in any Sino-Russian alliance, with a regime founded on the
principle of the Great Russian nationalism, is wary of being swallowed whole by the Chinese whale. The EU,
chafing for decades under US domination and beguiled by the perceived riches of the Chinese market, is
tempted to not fully commit to the American camp.

Leaving out the complexity that the great powers today can pursue independent neutralism as well as align
with either superpower led Biden to naively believe all the democratic great powers would be with him; the
G7 decisively proved otherwise. To emerge victorious in the great Sino-American competition, such
intellectual oversimplifications must be avoided at all costs. Otherwise, expect an endless series of G7
meetings amounting to nothing.

This article has been revised and updated for clarity and in response to reader comments.

Great Power Dynamics

International Affairs
Russia and Eurasia
Strategic Studies
US Foreign Policy
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The views expressed above belong to the author(s).

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