Manchester United vs Atalanta

By Joseph King
Champions League Group F
October 20th, 2:00 PM EST
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
Weather Forecast: scattered showers, 80% chance of rain

Probable Lineups:

Man U: 4-2-3-1 Atalanta: 3-4-2-1

Odds
Match Winner:
Man U (-145) / Atalanta (+358)

Total Goals:
over 3.25 (-103) / under 3.25 (-112)

Asian Handicap
Man U -0.75 (-117) / Atalanta +0.75 (+101)

odds provided by Bookmaker

 Preview

All is not well at Old Trafford as Manchester United find themselves teetering on the brink of turmoil.
With just 1 win in their last 5 matches, manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær finds himself on the hot seat yet again.
As United enter an important stretch of games that will go a long way to shaping their season - facing Atalanta twice,
Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester City all within the next 18 days, failure to pick up positive results over the coming
matches could ultimately spell the end for the Norweigen's tenuous reign over the storied English club.
There is a feeling of deja vu however, as the former United player-turned-manager has certainly faced this level
of pressure and scrutiny in the past but has been able to weather the storm and avoid the sack.

Ole Gunnar Solksjaer has had mixed results during his tenure

The high-profile return of club legend Cristiano Ronaldo has only seemed to temporarily paper over the cracks
and there is a sentiment amongst supporters that the money would have been better invested in a holding defensive
midfielder, an area where the Red Devils have struggled as of late. With the glacial Nemanja Matic clearly past his
best and the likes of McTominay and Pogba not being natural holding mids, this is an area of the pitch that opponents
have often been able to exploit.
 However, you certainly would be hard-pressed to find a United supporter who flat out wouldn't want CR7 back at the
club. Even at 36 years of age, Ronaldo continues to produce the goods - a testament to his almost
mythical work ethic and fitness. Yet despite the boost received from his return, United have struggled to
produce quality chances and appear at times unable to play in a style that best utilizes the wide array of attacking
talent they have at their disposal.

Let's take a deeper look at their last 3 matches:

Here we have United's (red) most recent match, a 4-2 away loss to Leicester City (blue).
A key tactical element to note is that this was the first time this season that Ole Gunnar Solskjær's team had come up
against a 3 at the back formation, with Leicester lining up in 3-4-1-2. Ominous for United as they will encounter a
very similar system of play when they come up against Atalanta on Wednesday and they looked uncomfortable from the
start, unable to cope with the press and having difficulties dealing with the energetic runs in behind the defense from Vardy
and Iheanacho. United were well beaten here, only mustering 1.09 xG.
 Next, Manchester United's 1-1 draw at home vs. Everton (blue). We start to see now the trend that has been
developing over their recent matches: a real failure to create and finish quality chances. The Red Devils only managing to
create 1.03 xG on this occasion.

And finally, their last champions league match in which they managed a 2-1 win at home vs Villareal (black).
A fortunate result for United, as the Spanish side created the higher quality chances and will feel hard done
by the result.
 The most alarming statistic in these recent Manchester United performances is their failure to
create more expected goals than their opponent in each of the last 3 results. While xG (and xG allowed)
is not the be-all and end-all and it of course has flaws, it is a fairly reliable metric to gauge how well a team is
functioning as an overall unit given that the defensive, transition and offensive phases of play are inherently linked.

Atalanta on the other hand, find themselves in a good run of form - only losing once in their last 5 matches and
coming off an emphatic 4-1 away win at Empoli in the Italian Serie A. One of the most exciting attacking teams in
all of Europe over the past few seasons, they appear to be coming into full stride in this still young season.
Lauded for his progressive style of play, manager Gian Piero Gasperini lines his team up in a 3 at the back system,
usually a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-1-2. With aggressive wingbacks looking to surge forward at every opportunity and the technical
wizardry of the likes of Josip Ilicic and Luis Muriel, on their day the dangerous La Dea attack are up there with the very
best in world football.

Atalanta has become one of the most entertaining teams to watch

Despite the uptick in recent form, the Bergamo based club are facing somewhat of an injury crisis coming into this
pivotal group stage clash: missing their influential captain Rafael Toloi as well as energetic wingbacks
Hans Hateboer and Robin Gosens - all first team regulars when fit and Gosens, in particular, now an integral
member of the squad off the back of his impressive performances for the German national team during the Euros
in the summer.

Let's also take a look at Atalanta's last 3 matches to get an idea of their recent form:
 Their most recent performance, the previously mentioned 4-1 away win at Empoli. Advanced metrics tend to
love Gasperini's side, and on this day was no different – Atalanta thoroughly dominating in the major statistical
categories.

Next up, a 2-3 home loss to Serie A title challengers AC Milan – their only loss over the past 5 matches. While it was a
dreadful start, falling behind by 3 goals, they were able to scrape back 2 goals late on, even if they were ultimately just
consolations. Analytics wise they actually managed to play quite well on paper, having more of the ball, shots and chances
created.
 Finally, their most recent Champions League match: a 1-0 home win vs. Young Boys of Switzerland.
A dominating defensive performance and a very comfortable win, despite the only 1 goal margin of victory.

Best Bet
It's hard to look past Atalanta in this one. We have a case of 2 teams heading in opposite directions, and while
form is of course temporary, I believe there is enough evidence in recent matches to feel confident backing the
Italian side. Atalanta should be able to find the net, as I have serious questions as to whether United will be
sufficiently prepared to deal with their high intensity style, so I certainly would not find fault with backing the over
in the goals market if that's the direction you want to head. But for this one, I like La Dea to get a result here at
Old Trafford. I'll pay the extra juice and take Atalanta +1 (-130) on the asian handicap for a little bit of added
insurance, meaning that even if Atalanta do lose by a 1 goal margin, the bet is a push we get
and we get our money back.

Official Pick: Atalanta +1 (-130)