INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL

DEMAND FORECASTING

PREPARED BY:

ENGR. PRECIOUS PRINCESS T. SABA

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 TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
 Is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that
can be expected to travel on a given segment of transportation
system under a set of given land use , socioeconomic, and
environmental conditions.
 is a quantitative input to evaluate supply strategy of transport
facilities and land use planning.
 is to predict future transport demand when establishing transport
plans within a given budget.
 Is based on current travel patterns of transport systems and under
the assumption that general conditions will not greatly change.
Therefore, drastic or detailed changes can result in prediction errors.
 is used as important basic data to evaluate the efficiency of transport
facility supply and transport policy, such as road construction, public
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transport introduction, and transport demand management

implementation.
 DEMAN FORECASTING APPROACHES
 There are two basic demand – forecasting situations in transportation planning.
01 URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND
Factors Affecting Urban Travel Demand
a) location and intensity of land use
b) socioeconomic characteristics of people living in the area
c) the extent , cost, and quality of available transportation service

02 INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND

 In the intercity case, data generally aggregated to a greater extent than for urban travel
forecasting, such as city population, average city income, and travel time or travel cost
between city pairs.
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Norte: This lecture tackles about the urban travel demand process. However, the
concepts to be discussed ,ay be also applied to intercity travel demand.
 SEQUENTIAL STEPS FOR
TRAVEL FORECASTING
Land Use and Travel
Characteristics

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution

Transit and Highway

Mode Choice
System
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Assign Trips to Network

 TRIP GENERATION
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 Trip Generation
 Trip generation he process of determining the number of trips that will begin or end in each traffic
analysis zone within a study area.
 Since the trips are determined without regard to the destination, they are referred to a trip end. Each
trip has two ends, and these are described in terms of trip purpose, or whether the trips are either
produced by a traffic zone o attracted to a traffic zone. For example, a home – to – work trip would be
considered to have a trip and produced in the home zone and attracted to work zone.
 Trip generation analysis has two functions: (1) to develop a relationship between trip end production
or attraction and land use, and (2) to use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated
at some future date under a new set of land-use conditions.
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 Methods of trip generation analysis:
A) CROSS - CLASSIFICATION
 A technique developed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to determine the number of
trips that begin or end at home.
 Home – based trip generation is useful because it can represent a significant proportion of all trips.
A relationship between socioeconomic measures and trip production is developed. The variables
most commonly used are average income and auto ownership. Other variables that could be
considered are household size and stage in the household life cycle.

Example 1
A travel survey produced the data shown in Table 1. Twenty households were interviewed.
The table shows the number of trips produced per day for each of the households (number 1 –
20), as well as the corresponding annual household income and the number of automobiles
owned. Based on the data provided, develop a set of curves showing the number of trips per
household versus income and auto ownership.
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Table 1
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 SOLUTION:
 From the information in Table 1, produce a matrix that shows the number and percentage of households as a function of auto
ownership and income grouping.
 The numerical values in each cell represent the number of households observed in each combination of income – auto ownership
category (refer to table 2). The value in parentheses is the percentage observed at each income level.( In actual practice, the
sample size would be at least 25 data points per cell to ensure statistical accuracy.

Income Auto Owned

($1000s) o Group the households based on their
0 1 2+ Total income (5 groups), refer to the first
column.
≤24 2(67%) 1(33%) 0(0%) 3(100%) o Count the number of household
owning 0 car, 1 car, 2 or more cars
24-36 1(25%) 3(50%) 1(25%) 5(100%) (based on Table 1), then write it in
columns 2, 3 and 4. Get the
36-48 1(20%) 2(40%) 2(40%) 5(100%) percentage (which is written inside
the parentheses) by dividing the
48-60 - 1(33%) 2(67%) 3(100%) number of households owning 0, 1,
2+ cars by the total number of cars.
>60 - 1(25%) 3(75%) 4(100%)
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Total 4 8 8 20

Table 2 Number and Percent of Households in Each Income Category Versus Car Ownership
 STEP 2:
 Make a new table showing the average number of trips per household versus income and cars owned( Refer to Table 2). The
table depicts the relationship between trips per household per day by income and auto ownership, which indicates that for a given
income, trip generation increases with the number of cars owned. Similarly, for a given car ownership, trip generation increases
with rise in income.

Income Autos Owned

($1000s) o Group the households based on their
0 1 2+ income (5 groups), refer to the first
column.
≤24 3 5 - o Count the number of trips 0 car, 1 car,
2 or more cars (based on Table 1),
then write it in columns 2, 3 and 4.
24-36 4 6 9

36-48 5 7.5 10.5

48-60 - 8.5 11.5

>60 - 8.5 12.7

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Table 3 Average Trips Per Household Category Versus Car Ownership

 STEP 3:
 Make a curve using the data obtained in step 2 to present the relationship between number
of trips versus ownership of cars and income category..

2+ autos

Number of Trips /Household

1 auto
13
8
0 auto
2 Low: < $32,000
Medium: > $32,000 - $48,000
low Medium High High: >$48,000
Income Income Income

Figure 1 Trips Per Household per Day by Auto Ownership and Income Category
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