Professional Documents
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2021 10 11 Bloomberg Businessweek
2021 10 11 Bloomberg Businessweek
2021 10 11 Bloomberg Businessweek
3
PHOTOGRAPH BY VIRGINIA HANUSIK FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
IN BRIEF 6 Volvo heads for an IPO ○ More real estate worries in China COVER TRAIL
OPINION 8 D.C.’s workforce needs fewer appointees and more pros How the cover
AGENDA 8 Big bank earnings ○ G-20 corporate tax meeting gets made
①
“So we have a great
REMARKS 10 Financial apps bring ease, fun—and risk—to banking story this week
about a stablecoin
called Tether.”
BUSINESS 13 Corporate clients pressure elite law firms on diversity
1 15 The electric car revolution may drive past Michigan “Stable-whatnow?”
“It’s a type of
cryptocurrency that’s
TECHNOLOGY 18 Startups lead a space race to gather climate data designed to provide
2 20 A whistleblower’s plan for a safer Facebook stability by being
backed by real U.S.
21 Salesforce has a streaming service. Seriously dollars. Bitcoin traders
love—wait, did you ever
see the 1994 film D2:
FINANCE 25 A great time for companies to retire from running pensions The Mighty Ducks?”
3 27 The under-30 crowd joins the SPAC party “I mean, what kind of
28 Mobile money is off to a fast start in Brazil question is that?”
“Uh … not quite.
Do you have a pen?”
PURSUITS 63 What it’s really like behind the scenes at Disney World
ECONOMICS: COURTESY MIT SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
○ A leak of financial ○ Natural gas prices ○ The first vaccine for ○ Tesla was
records known as the surged 60% in Europe malaria, the mosquito-borne
Pandora Papers exposed before sliding fast there illness that kills ordered to pay
the offshore financial and in the U.S. on Oct. 6, $137 million in
assets of world leaders and
celebrities, including former
British Prime Minister Tony
after Vladimir Putin said
Russia was ready to help
stabilize energy markets.
400k
people each year, is set to
damages to a
Black former
6 Blair and his wife, Cherie; be deployed more widely elevator operator.
Russian President Vladimir Dutch gas futures after the World Health
Putin and his inner circle; Organization recommended
and King Abdullah II of €100 its use in children in sub-
Jordan, who spent lavishly Saharan Africa and other
on properties in the U.K. regions with moderate to A judge found the EV pioneer failed
50 high rates of transmission. to intervene to stop the racial taunts
and offensive graffiti Owen Diaz
said he experienced while working
at Tesla’s Fremont, Calif., auto plant
MARKEY: STEFANI REYNOLDS/BLOOMBERG. BLAIR: DITMAS ARDIAN/BLOOMBERG. BLAIR: MONEY SHARMA/GETTY IMAGES.
0 in 2015 and 2016. The damages are
PUTIN: EVGENY PAULIN/GETTY IMAGES. ABDULLAH: STEPHANIE KEITH/GETTY IMAGES. DATA COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG
among the largest ever in an individual
6/1/21 10/6/21 employment discrimination case.
○ In Sweden’s biggest
○ Crime in listing in more than two
New York City decades, Volvo Car Group
plans to raise at least
has declined
to its lowest
level in three
decades.
25b
kronor ($2.9 billion) in an
IPO later this year. Current
owner Zhejiang Geely
Holding Group says it will
remain Volvo’s largest
shareholder.
3 compromised passwords
protecting your
accounts from hackers.
We keep more people safe online than anyone else with products that are
secure by default, private by design, and put you in control.
g.co/safety
BLOOMBERG OPINION October 11, 2021
shielding you
from malware.
We keep more people safe online than anyone else with products that are
secure by default, private by design, and put you in control.
g.co/safety
REMARKS
10
consumers than you could ever imagine.” capital from such outfits as SoftBank Group Corp., are push-
Browse potential homes for sale, and Zillow will offer you ing digital finance deeper into our wallets than the Venmo-
a mortgage. Buy a pair of sneakers online, you’ll be presented style bill-splitting services of old.
with 16 ways to pay at checkout, from Apple Pay to Klarna. See Zillow Group Inc. is buying houses. Square Inc. offers busi-
a stock tip on Reddit, and you can act on it, commission-free, ness loans. Such buy now, pay later firms as Klarna are turn-
on Robinhood. Should you want to deposit your paycheck ing checkout credit into something frictionless, cardless, and
directly into cryptocurrency trading app Coinbase, you’ll be potentially careless. Fintech companies now originate 38% of
able to. (Please don’t.) U.S. unsecured personal loans, up from 5% in 2013. Plentiful
If you want a no-frills bank account or something close to funding also allows them to woo clients with better savings
it, several hundred are vying for your attention: BankMD for rates than banks.
REMARKS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
Some discounts, coverages, payment plans, and features are not available in all states, in all GEICO companies, or in all situations. Boat and PWC coverages are underwritten by GEICO Marine Insurance Company. Homeowners, renters, and condo coverages are written through
non-affiliated insurance companies and are secured through the GEICO Insurance Agency, LLC. Motorcycle and ATV coverages are underwritten by GEICO Indemnity Company. GEICO is a registered service mark of Government Employees Insurance Company, Washington, DC
20076; a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. subsidiary. GEICO Gecko® image © 1999-2021. © 2021 GEICO 21_7 13276269
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
13
Big Law’s
White Male Problem
ILLUSTRATION BY 731
Elite law firms in the U.S. and the U.K., long seen How Law Offices Stack Up on Diversity
as fusty bastions of mostly White men, are being
Share of lawyers at elite Gender and ethnicity at U.S. firms
pushed by some of their biggest customers to firms who are women
White men White women Men of color Women of color
change. Facebook, HP, and Novartis are part of a
growing number of major global companies that Summer Associates Partners
associates 100%
have warned they’ll take their work elsewhere or U.K. 52%
cut fees unless they see more racial and gender
diversity in the law firms they hire.
It’s a serious threat: Facebook Inc. last year 50
San Francisco. “And using buying power to push for 2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020
change will oftentimes start to move the needle.”
It’s not that the companies pushing for change DATA: PIRICAL ANALYSIS OF GENDER ACROSS BLOOMBERG SAMPLE OF FIRMS AS OF AUG. 1;
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR LAW PLACEMENT DIVERSITY REPORT
are models of diversity. Most have their own dis-
tinct struggles with representation, and Facebook The movement was gaining momentum even
this week faced criticism in Congress that its pol- before last summer’s Black Lives Matter protests
icies foster division (page 20). But corporate law turbocharged the push for diversity and represen-
firms have proved particularly slow to shape up, tation; Dawson says her clients, mostly banks, began
with many structured as partnerships that give rel- asking about diversity five to eight years ago. A big
atively few dealmakers decades of influence over break came in 2019, when 170 companies—including
how a firm is run. That’s an increasing concern for Heineken NV’s U.S. unit and Etsy Inc.—sent an open
clients, who say diverse legal teams deliver more letter to law firms criticizing their lack of diversity.
creative and well-rounded advice. That same year about 60 top lawyers at European cor-
14 Many law firms have made public commitments porations signed a separate commitment to increase
on racial, gender, and economic diversity, but they diversity and inclusion across the legal sector. Signees
have a long way to go. Women make up a little more to that pledge have since doubled and include Anglo
than a quarter of partners at 10 of the most pres- American, BHP Group, Royal Dutch Shell, Unilever,
tigious firms on either side of the Atlantic, shows Vodafone Group, and other deep-pocketed clients.
research by diversity-analytics company Pirical. Participants recognized their responsibility to use
About 10% of partners at U.S. firms are people of “the power of our purse as clients to help encour-
color, according to a 2020 survey of 883 law offices by age greater diversity,” says Richard Price, general
the National Association for Law Placement. Racial counsel at mining company Anglo American Plc.
minorities make up only 8% of U.K.-based part- “That isn’t so much about threatening the firms to
ners at elite British firms, according to Bloomberg take our business away from them. It’s really about
calculations based on company data. To put that working with them to encourage their initiatives to
in perspective, about 12% of directors at the U.K.’s drive diversity.”
100 largest companies are from an ethnic minority, HP Inc. was one of the first companies to warn it
data from a government-commissioned report show. would penalize law firms that flunked certain diver-
“There are enough clients who are focused on sity benchmarks, saying in 2017 it would temporar-
this—passionate about it and see it as their respon- ily withhold a portion of fees from those that didn’t
sibility to improve diversity across the legal sector— have someone diverse handling staffing issues, or
that it will definitely have an impact on balance at least one racially diverse attorney either manag-
sheets,” says Georgia Dawson, who last year became ing or performing 10% of the work. The California-
the first woman to be elected senior partner—a cru- based company has on average enforced that threat
cial management role—at Freshfields Bruckhaus on one or two firms each quarter since then, accord-
Deringer. The 278-year-old firm is part of London’s ing to a spokesperson.
so-called Magic Circle, a group of elite law offices that Others have followed suit. Facebook requires
have dominated the U.K. legal sector for decades. that half the lawyers on its external U.S. legal teams
This year, Linklaters, another Magic Circle firm, are diverse—in terms of race, gender, sexual orien-
picked its first female senior partner since its found- tation, or disability status—boosting the mandate
ing 183 years ago, and 132-year-old rival Slaughter & from 33% earlier this year, and is considering a pol-
May chose a woman as managing partner, a newly icy to withhold fees from law firms if they don’t
created role, in September. meet targets, Hauber says. Swiss pharmaceutical
BUSINESS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
giant Novartis AG has said it will withhold 15% of it may give rise to lawsuits against the company.
fees if firms don’t meet its diverse staffing commit- A more diverse pipeline of young lawyers may help
ment, and telecommunications provider BT Group tackle representation in years to come, based on law
Plc has promised a seat on its advisory panel to the school data and the number of women in lower lev-
law office with the best representation. els. Below the rank of partner, 50% of the attorneys
“If any law firm turns up on a matter with noth- at top U.S. and U.K. law firms are women. That’s even
ing but men working for us, they would have failed higher in transactional practices such as mergers
to meet one of our criteria,” says Rosemary Martin, and acquisitions, where women account for 60% of
general counsel at U.K.-based Vodafone Group Plc. nonpartner attorneys in the U.K. and 49% in the U.S.
Such requirements are not without controversy. Many top U.K. firms have trainee cohorts that are
In January, Coca-Cola Co.’s top lawyer proposed a majority female, and they’re pushing to attract can-
policy demanding that outside law firms include didates from racial minorities, too. Almost 40% of
diverse attorneys on at least 30% of new business summer associates at U.S. firms surveyed last year
with the company and that Black lawyers receive were people of color, a number four times higher
at least half of the billable work. He left after eight than at the partner level.
months on the job, and his successor is reviewing Still, “we don’t want anyone to feel complacent
the standard. The company declined to say whether about this,” says Jennifer Newstead, Facebook’s gen-
this personnel change was related to the diver- eral counsel. “This is a journey that’s not finished.”
sity push, and a spokesperson said in August that —Ellen Milligan and Todd Gillespie, with Ruiqi Chen
Coca-Cola remains “fully committed to advancing and Rebekah Mintzer
equity, diversity, and inclusion in the legal profes-
THE BOTTOM LINE Elite law firms now have a financial incentive
sion.” The policy spurred at least one group of share- to promote women and people of color as a growing number
holders to write to the board in opposition, saying of clients threaten to dock pay or work from nondiverse offices.
15
Where EV Growth
Is Bad News
○ Traditional carmaking made Michigan the Motor Capital. Electric cars could do the reverse
Ever since Henry Ford’s Model T brought mobility in a rural area near Memphis. The four factories,
WHITMER: DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES. DINGELL: SARAH SILBIGER/GETTY IMAGES
to the masses a century ago, Michigan has been which Ford is building with South Korean battery
America’s automotive epicenter, home to scores partner SK Innovation Co., will employ almost ○ Gretchen Whitmer
of vehicle parts and production plants—and the 11,000 workers.
tens of thousands of jobs that go with them. Now The setback has led to criticism from pundits and
the birthplace of the U.S. auto industry is suffer- politicians of Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
ing a crisis of confidence after being passed over and her economic development officials for failing
by hometown hero Ford Motor Co. for $11.4 bil- to get in the game because they didn’t submit a bid
lion in new electric vehicle and battery factories on the project. “It was a shock, and I’m extremely
in favor of Kentucky and Tennessee. “The reality,” disappointed,” says Tim Walberg, a Republican con-
the Detroit News wrote in an editorial on Sept. 28, is gressman from Michigan. “The key question is: How
that Michigan is “unprepared to achieve its dreams did this happen on Governor Whitmer’s watch? And
of dominating the automotive future.” what is it about Governor Whitmer’s economic pol- ○ Debbie Dingell
The project includes three battery factories in icies that has Ford looking out of state?”
Kentucky and Tennessee and Ford’s first brand- On the defensive, Whitmer accused Ford
new assembly plant in a half-century, to be located of not giving Michigan “a real opportunity”
BUSINESS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
to bid on the big deal. Whitmer declined an Bill Ford, great-grandson of founder Henry, told
U.S. passenger
vehicle sales outlook
interview request for this story. But the gover- the Detroit News that the company considered by drivetrain
nor, a Democrat, sent a letter to the Republican- Michigan for its EV expansion, but it just didn’t Internal combustion
controlled Michigan Legislature on Oct. 5 have a shovel-ready location that met the auto- Hybrid, plug-in hybrid,
imploring it to use a big chunk of $6.5 billion in maker’s needs, including enough acreage to match and fuel cell
federal coronavirus recovery funds the state has the 6-square-mile megasite in Tennessee. Battery electric
coming to “put more tools in our economic tool Behind the bickering is the uncomfortable truth
box.” She also noted that the state has work to do for Michigan that winning investment during the 18m
to attract business expansion, saying, “Let’s not century of the internal combustion engine is no
sell ourselves short—we have plenty to offer, but guarantee of riches during the dawning electric age.
we need to do more to be the number-one desti- Although Ford plans to produce the electric F-150
nation for any business.” Lightning pickup at the vast Rouge factory com- 9
Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan plex that founder Henry constructed a century
Democrat whose district includes Ford’s home base ago in Dearborn, no automaker has announced
in Dearborn, says the state’s previous Republican a single new battery factory in the state. General
governor dismantled some of the economic devel- Motors Co. and its South Korean battery partner, 0
opment programs that could have been used LG Chem Ltd., have chosen Ohio and Tennessee for 2021 2040
to offer incentives to rival what Kentucky and their first two plants, with no sites yet announced
Tennessee gave. But she acknowledges that the for two others.
state needs a better and less fractious approach Moreover, because EVs don’t use conventional
to land the automotive factories of the future. engines and drivetrains, Michigan is at consider-
BLUE OVAL CITY: FORD. EV SALES OUTLOOK BASED ON BLOOMBERGNEF ECONOMIC TRANSITION SCENARIO. DATA: BLOOMBERGNEF ELECTRIC VEHICLE OUTLOOK 2021 REPORT PUBLISHED IN JUNE
“Pointing fingers at each other just gives another able risk as the industry transforms. The state’s fac-
reason for companies not to come to Michigan,” tories produce 1 in 6 internal combustion engines
Dingell says. “This is a wake-up call for all of us.” in America and a third of transmissions, accord-
Ford has tried to placate its unhappy neigh- ing to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann
16 bors, with Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley tak- Arbor. More than 32,000 workers in Michigan built
Digital rendering
ing to Twitter to declare his “love” for the Great gasoline-fueled engines and transmissions in 2019, of Blue Oval City,
Ford’s coming EV and
Lakes State, where the automaker has invested when factories were still running at full tilt before battery factories in
$7 billion in the past five years. Executive Chair the pandemic. “What’s at stake is really the future Stanton, Tenn.
BUSINESS Bloomberg Businessweek LEGAL NOTICE
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MANAGEMENT, AND CIRCULATION
(Act of August 12, 1970: Section 3685, Title 39,
United States Code)
1 Title of publication: BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK.
of mobility and the automotive industry,” has said that’s one reason it books a profit 2 Publication No.: 080-900.
says Carla Bailo, CEO of researcher CAR, on every Mach-E it sells. “We’re seen as a 3 Date of filing: October 7, 2021.
4 Issue Frequency: Published weekly except for one week in
who counsels Michigan’s leaders on luring union state, and that has baggage,” Bailo January, February, March, April, June, July, August, September,
October & November.
investment. “If all this work goes some- says. She contends that can be “turned 5 No. of Issues Published Annually: 42.
where else, we have a number of plants around” by training UAW members for the 6 Annual Subscription Price: Domestic $99.00
7 Complete Mailing Address of Known Office of Publication:
that do internal combustion engine work high-tech jobs of the future and encourag- 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022.
Contact Person: Daniel Murphy. Telephone: 212-318-2000.
that are really going to be in jeopardy. We ing greater teamwork on the factory floor. 8 Complete Mailing Address of Headquarters or General
Business Office of Publisher: 731 Lexington Avenue,
really need to take this seriously.” UAW spokesman Brian Rothenberg New York, NY 10022.
9 Full Names and Complete Mailing Addresses of Publisher,
Among Michigan’s biggest drawbacks is took issue with such thinking. “That is Editor, and Managing Editor: Publisher: Bloomberg
L.P., 731 Lexington Ave., New York, NY 10022; Editor:
its high cost of energy. The state has indus- a 1980s analysis that does not apply to Joel Weber, 731 Lexington Ave., New York, NY 10022;
Managing Editor: Kristin Powers, 731 Lexington Ave., New
trial energy rates of 8¢ per kilowatt-hour, today’s Michigan,” he says, noting that York, NY 10022.
10 The owner is Bloomberg L.P., 731 Lexington Ave., New
more than the national average of 7.53¢ Ford, GM, and Stellantis NV, the former York, NY 10022.
and well above its neighbors to the south, Fiat Chrysler, are building and renovating 11 Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security
holders owning or holding 1 percent or more of total
with Tennessee at 5.85¢ and Kentucky factories around Detroit. amount of bonds, mortgages or other securities: None.
12 Not applicable.
at 6.06¢, according to the U.S. Energy Michigan’s fractured political envi- 13 Publication Title: BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK.
Information Administration. ronment also takes a toll on economic 14 Issue Date for Circulation Data Below: September 6, 2021
15 Extent and Nature of Circulation: Average No.
That price premium would add up fast development. Mask mandates and school No. Copies Copies
Each of Single
in the factories Ford and SK are building, shutdowns during the pandemic exposed Issue Issue
A Total No. Copies
which together will have the capacity to deep divisions. Armed right-wing extrem- (Net Press Run) 450,753 295,508
B Paid Circulation
produce 129 gigawatt-hours of batteries— ists stormed the Michigan State Capitol (By Mail and Outside the Mail)
enough to power more than a million months before the siege on Jan. 6 in 1 Mailed Outside-County Paid
Subscriptions Stated on PS Form
electric cars annually. The highly auto- Washington, and federal investigators 3541 (Include paid distribution
above nominal rate, advertiser’s
proof copies, and exchange copies) 247,703 155,286
mated and antiseptic environment that broke up a plot to kidnap and possibly 2 Mailed In-County Paid
battery plants require results in five times harm Whitmer. Subscriptions Stated on PS Form
3541 (Include paid distribution
above nominal rate, advertiser’s
the energy consumption of a typical auto Those hostilities continue to simmer proof copies, and exchange copies) 0 0
plant, according to Ford. as Republicans seek to oust Whitmer 3 Paid Distribution Outside the Mails
Including Sales Through Dealers 17
and Carriers, Street Vendors,
Making matters worse for the indus- in the gubernatorial election next year. Counter Sales, and Other Paid
Distribution Outside USPS® 79,996 66,322
try, Michigan’s utility regulations cap the “Our governor has been concerned about 4 Paid Distribution by Other Classes
of Mail Through the USPS
amount of energy that industrial users cloistering us away and putting masks on (e.g., First-Class Mail®) 0 0
C Total Paid and/or Requested
can buy via competitive bids at only 10% our faces and keeping us out of school Circulation (Sum of 15B)(1), (2),
(3), and (4) 327,699 221,608
of their consumption, which keeps rates and out of work and out of church for
D Free or Nominal Rate Distribution
elevated, says Greg Keoleian, director the better part of two years,” says GOP (By Mail and Outside the Mail)
1 Free or Nominal Rate Outside-County
of the Center for Sustainable Systems at Representative Walberg. “This better just Copies included on PS Form 3541 111,340 63,427
2 Free or Nominal Rate In-County
the University of Michigan. “That would sock us between the eyes and wake us up.” Copies Included on PS Form 3541 0 0
account for a lot of the differences with Tennessee’s Republican governor and 3 Free or Nominal Rate Copies
Mailed at Other Classes Through
the USPS (e.g., First-Class Mail) 3 2
other states that have more competitive Kentucky’s Democratic governor are 4 Free or Nominal Rate Distribution
markets,” he says. boasting about their new role in usher- Outside the Mail (Carriers or other
means) 3,296 2,943
Michigan’s reputation as a stronghold ing in the automobile’s electric era. They E Total Free or Nominal Rate
Distribution (Sum of 15D (1)(2)
of organized labor also works against paid dearly for it, with Tennessee giving (3) and (4) 114,638 66,372
F Total Distribution (Sum of 15C
it, Bailo says. Electric vehicles are more half a billion dollars in incentives and and 15E) 442,337 287,980
G Copies Not Distributed 8,415 7,528
costly to build, mostly because of high Kentucky forking out almost $300 million H Total (Sum of 15F and G) 450,753 295,508
battery costs, so automakers are head- and handing over a 1,551-acre site south I Percent Paid
(15c divided by 15f times 100) 74.1% 77.0%
ing south to Kentucky, Tennessee, and of Louisville. 16 Electronic Copy Circulation:
A Paid Electronic Copies
other states with right-to-work laws to But the Southern states’ leaders say 24,302 25,000
B Total Paid Print Copies (Line 15c) +
lower their operating expenses. The the payoff will likely last at least as long Paid Electronic Copies (Line 16a) 352,001 246,608
C Total Print Distribution (Line 15f) +
employees Ford and SK hire in Tennessee as Michigan has been the Motor Capital. Paid Electronic Copies (Line 16a) 466,639 312,980
D Percent Paid (Both Print &
and Kentucky will choose whether they At a splashy ceremony on Sept. 28 on the Electronic Copies) (16b divided by
16c x 100) 75.4% 78.8%
want union representation. Workers in vast, 3,600-acre site in Stanton, Tenn., 17 Publication of Statement of Ownership: Publication
Tennessee have already rejected orga- to be known as Blue Oval City, Governor required. Will be printed in the October 11, 2021 issue of
this publication.
nizing drives by the United Auto Workers Bill Lee declared, “West Tennessee will 18 Signature and Title of Editor, Publisher, Business
Manager or Owner
at Nissan Motor Co. and Volkswagen now lead the nation in the next industrial Joel Weber, Editor 10/11/2021
AG factories. revolution.” —Keith Naughton I certify that all information furnished on this form is true
and complete. I understand that anyone who furnishes
Ford builds its electric Mustang Mach-E false or misleading information on this form or who
omits material or information requested on the form
THE BOTTOM LINE Ford’s $11.4 billion investment in EV
in Mexico, where wages are a fraction of and battery plants will result in almost 11,000 jobs. But
may be subject to criminal sanctions (including fines
and imprisonment) and/or civil sanctions (including civil
what U.S. workers make. The automaker they won’t go to workers in its home state of Michigan. penalties).
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
T
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C
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18
O
L
O The View
G From Space
Y A startup uses satellites and AI to measure,
and maybe mitigate, the climate crisis ILLUSTRATION BY MARIA CHIMISHKYAN. DYER: COURTESY MUON SPACE
Over the past few years technology companies and ability to pull carbon dioxide out of the air.
have started to build something akin to a Advances in hardware and machine-learning
computing shell around the Earth, where satel- software are vastly expanding what’s possi-
lites gather massive amounts of photos and other ble with satellite data. Once the province of
measurements and artificial intelligence software government-backed research, the most ambi-
systems analyze the data. The results can be quite tious work today comes from private companies.
spectacular. It’s no longer enough for systems Startups in the field say they want to assist scien-
like these to count every tree on the Earth’s sur- tists grappling with climate change by providing
Edited by
face; now they aim to measure each one’s health, precise data about the health of the planet. But
Joshua Brustein size, and species to compute their total biomass they’re also chasing profits and counting on the
TECHNOLOGY Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
information they’re generating being valuable to of the most ambitious corporate climate pledges to
those judging whether corporate and government date. Dubious of the quality of some reforestation
programs to better the environment are effective. and carbon capture ventures, Microsoft has been
One of the most ambitious startups in the field is looking for ways to assess its own efforts. “We are
Muon Space. While other companies have focused the largest participant in the carbon removal mar-
on one part of the process—maintaining networks ket today,” says Lucas Joppa, Microsoft’s chief envi-
of satellites, say, or creating computer models to ronmental officer. “How in the world are we ever
monitor specific situations such as wildfires or going to monitor and validate the removal that we
methane leaks—Muon wants to do it all. Founded paid for in any sort of scalable way? The answer lies
by a team of satellite experts and scientists, it plans in remote sensing.”
to launch a fleet of satellites designed to analyze Microsoft’s Planetary Computer is one of the big-
Earth’s atmosphere, land, and water in fine detail. gest repositories of climate-related data ever assem-
The company will combine measurements from its bled. Joppa warns that many problems still exist
own equipment with decades of publicly available around working with satellite data, including basic,
satellite data to create a meticulously detailed pic- painstaking work such as pulling subpar images
ture of the planet’s ecosystems. from databases and finding the right algorithms to
Muon’s goal is to build a single application to simplify complex scientific measurements. “This is
help companies do things like monitor the efficacy not easy, and it’s not cheap if you want to extract
of their reforestation programs and allow regula- meaningful information,” he says.
tors to prove which farmers are polluting certain Startups have also begun picking off various
rivers. “We think that over the next 10 years there’s aspects of the undertaking. Salo Sciences, Chloris
going to have to be a huge reckoning in terms of Geospatial, and NCX are applying image recognition
transparency around things like carbon credits and other machine-learning techniques to existing
and that we’re going to need better data to adapt data. Planet Labs Inc. has the largest network of
to climate changes,” says Jonny Dyer, Muon’s chief image-taking satellites ever built and can take mul- ○ Dyer
executive officer and co-founder, in his first public tiple photos of almost all of the Earth’s landmass 19
comments about the company’s technology. “We every day. MethaneSAT, a subsidiary of the non-
need to move from images of the planet to funda- profit Environmental Defense Fund, is planning a
mental geophysical measurements.” Muon recently fleet of satellites to monitor methane emissions at
raised $10 million. more than 80% of the world’s oil and gas fields.
Historically, governments have openly shared Hamman says this kind of approach has the
much of the data gathered from their satellites. potential to lead to improvements on satellite work
But working with the information has been tough. that’s been going on for decades. Still, he’s con-
Much of their systems’ technology predates any cerned that the typical startup hype cycles could
planning for the modern era of cloud computing prove a distraction at a time of extreme urgency
and AI-based data analysis. “Twenty years ago, for climate-related work. “I don’t want to downplay
the idea of putting every satellite image where what people are trying to do, but there are marginal
any scientist could access it was unheard of,” says benefits on many of these things,” he says. “There
Joe Hamman, a research scientist at the National are fundamental challenges that we face with the cli-
Center for Atmospheric Research. “That vastly mate that don’t go away because we have a new sat-
limited how scientists thought about the problems ellite or a clever way of doing accounting.”
they would work on.” Muon’s founders are veterans of the space
Government bodies have been working to industry. Dyer was the chief engineer of Skybox
modernize their tech, but private industry tends Imaging, a startup that created techniques to
to outpace their efforts. Microsoft, Google, and make satellites smaller and cheaper, which was
Amazon.com have built systems that gather pub- purchased by Google in 2014. His co-founder, Dan
lic climate data, often obtained via satellites, and McCleese, is the former chief scientist at NASA’s Jet
make it available to just about anyone who wants Propulsion Laboratory.
to poke around the images and measurements. Muon’s satellites, which the company expects
The motivation is a mix of altruism and a desire to to launch in the next two years, will use thermal
showcase their networks’ power to potential cli- infrared sensors, infrared spectroscopy, and low-
ents of their cloud computing products. frequency radar to scrutinize almost every inch of
Microsoft Corp. also wants to monitor its own the planet. Until then it’s applying its algorithms to
environmental programs. Last year the company existing image databases and calculating soil mois-
said it planned to be carbon-negative by 2030, one ture levels, snow depth, and the types of standing
TECHNOLOGY Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
water in various locations. Muon has projects platform safer, healthier, and less polarizing.
with Google and weather forecaster Tomorrow.io There are lots of ideas on this subject—Congress
to prove out its data and image analysis techniques, and federal enforcement agencies have spent the
which have already allowed it to catch businesses last several years formulating their own plans to
polluting areas meant to be protected. hold Facebook to account—and Haugen’s sugges-
“In areas like agriculture where there are some tions didn’t always align with those of the compa-
bogus things going on, you can see something ny’s harshest critics.
like waste discharge very clearly with these Haugen’s overarching point: Facebook needs
Facebook share price
approaches,” Dyer says. He considers a satellite- to make big product changes that, she said, would
based system for automatically monitoring likely lead to less engagement, a decline in advertis- $380
environmental conditions as inevitable, whether ing dollars, and ultimately less profit. She called out
it’s built by Muon or someone else. “When we look one of the core aspects of the social network’s expe-
back in 20 years, it’s going to be obvious that the rience, its “engagement-based ranking” system that
only way markets can develop around this stuff and determines what people see in their news feeds. 350
regulators can feel comfortable is if this is real and In 2018, Facebook prioritized engagement as part
you have good data.” —Ashlee Vance of a shift toward “meaningful social interactions,”
which the company said would lead to more vis-
THE BOTTOM LINE Private companies are leading the charge in 320
the use of satellites to keep track of both those polluting the planet
ibility for posts from friends and family and less
and those trying to save it. for brands and publishers. The impact, according 8/31/21 10/5/21
to Haugen, was to emphasize content that elicited
strong emotional reactions, even if it was hateful
or polarizing.
Instead of engagement, Haugen would prefer
The Whistleblower’s that Facebook show content mostly in chrono-
logical order. It already offers this option but
20 Guide to Fixing doesn’t allow users to make it their default setting.
Company executives have said chronological feeds
Facebook would be less relevant to many users than one in
which its algorithms choose personalized content.
Another idea that Facebook has partially imple-
○ A former employee calls for big changes but mented is the removal of “like counts” showing
doesn’t want the company to be broken up how many people reacted to posts on Instagram,
a feature that’s been linked to the social anxiety
that the product causes, particularly in teens.
A product manager who’d worked at Facebook Inc. After toying with the idea for years, the com-
turned over reams of pages of internal documents pany said recently it would allow people the
to government officials and the Wall Street Journal option to hide the like counts. Haugen called for
Haugen during her
earlier this year because, she said, she’d reached more sweeping action, saying minimum ages congressional testimony
the conclusion that the company was unable to
for social networks should be raised to as high members of both parties agree on the need for
as 18, because young people don’t have the self- stronger privacy protections, they differ on the
regulatory skills to adjust their behavior. The more politically charged issue of content modera-
platform’s algorithm has “feedback cycles where tion, with Democrats focused on the spread of mis-
children are using Instagram to self-soothe but information and Republicans accusing technology
then are exposed to more and more content that companies of bias against conservative views.
makes them hate themselves,” she said. There is already bipartisan support for bills
Facebook’s own research about the harms of confronting the market power of Facebook and
youthful Instagram use was one of the most explo- a handful of other huge tech companies, and the
sive aspects of the Journal series based on Haugen’s Federal Trade Commission has challenged the
revelations. In a statement, Nick Clegg, Facebook’s company’s acquisition of Instagram and instant-
vice president for global affairs, said the reports messaging platform WhatsApp. Haugen said
contained “deliberate mischaracterizations” with- breaking up Facebook wouldn’t help. Doing so,
out offering specific details. The company said in she argued, would lead only to smaller companies
another statement that Haugen wasn’t high enough with the same privacy and transparency prob-
on its totem pole to understand its approach to lems. And without Instagram to drive its growth,
the issues she testified about. It repeated its call Facebook would stagnate and “continue to be this
to reform an important 1996 law governing social Frankenstein that is endangering lives around the
media sites. world.” —Naomi Nix and Anna Edgerton
Lawmakers have introduced several bills tar-
THE BOTTOM LINE Facebook’s fixation on engagement has
geting large technology companies, some of made its products less safe, says a whistleblower, and the company
which deal with aspects of product design. While should accept lower profits to improve its social networks.
21
In her essay “The White Album,” Joan Didion Cramer) talk about themselves. The series Leading
famously wrote, “We tell ourselves stories in order Through Change focuses on “how business lead-
to live.” As far as human beings go, it’s as good an ers are navigating the Covid-19 pandemic.”
explanation as any. But how about business-to- Simply Put promises, in six-minute episodes,
business software companies? Why do they do it? solutions to “complex industrywide problems.”
At this late stage of the streaming wars, it seems A lot of the interviews are about telling stories:
like there’s no business that isn’t in show busi- either of personal journeys, or corporate
ness. Consider Salesforce+, the online transformations, or, ideally, stories that
streaming channel that Salesforce.com tie the two together into parables
Inc., the world leader in customer rela- of purpose-driven capitalism. In
tionship management software, started one episode of Connections, Sarah
in September. The channel, which I Franklin, Salesforce’s chief market-
recently spent a couple days watching, ing officer, travels to Austin to speak Astro, Salesforce’s
mascot
is a collection of shows available through to Carla Piñeyro Sublett, IBM
Salesforce’s website where people (usually Corp.’s chief marketing officer. As
company executives) interview busi- the two walk through a park wear-
COURTESY SALESFORCE
ness owners, entrepreneurs, and fel- ing athleisure clothing and match-
low executives. There’s The Inflection ing foam-and-mesh trucker hats,
Point, where chief executive offi- Sublett confides that she wants IBM’s
cers (and, in one episode, CNBC’s Jim marketing to win an Academy
TECHNOLOGY Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
and thought there was a place alongside them for keting consulting firm Metaforce. At the same
“engaging content and inspirational stories” related time, the public backlash against cookies and ad
to business. tracking software more broadly has led Apple
22 On some level, Salesforce+ is just Salesforce tell- Inc., Google, and the other big software and hard-
ing its own story. What good is it to be a purpose- ware platform companies to pledge (with vary-
driven, change-making company if you can’t tell ing degrees of enthusiasm) to phase them out. A
people about it? In Episode 3 of Leading Through streaming service could be a way to connect to
customers who won’t let you pay to reach them. Franklin interviewing
surfer Laird Hamilton for
Obviously, this only works if people come Connections
and watch the stuff. Salesforce+ was launched at
Dreamforce, the company’s annual conference,
a mostly virtual affair this year streamed on the
new channel. Much of the content retains the feel
of something adapted from a conference stage. But
instead of sitting in the same room for a few hours
until the alcohol-lubricated networking begins,
Salesforce+ viewers are being asked to focus on a
screen that could just as easily be playing sports
highlights, episodes of their favorite childhood TV
Change, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff interviews shows, or pornography. While I was watching it, I “I want to bring
Julie Sweet, the CEO of Accenture Plc. At one found myself constantly clicking away to deal with these stories
point, he unspools, with justifiable pride, a long my online to-do list. to life in a way
soliloquy that starts with how Salesforce secured Salesforce+ is still new, of course, and a work that no B2B
and distributed to health-care workers early in in progress. Franklin is thinking of expanding into tech marketer
the pandemic millions of pieces of personal pro- scripted content—she mentioned the HBO satire ever has done
tective equipment, then describes the company’s Silicon Valley as an inspiration. I’m definitely curi- before ”
work with Accenture to help clients do contact trac- ous what that would look like. For now, though,
ing, before segueing into a discussion of the con- the channel failed for me, at least as infotain-
COURTESY SALESFORCE (2)
tagion risk of elevators, all while Sweet nods along ment. As a productivity aid it worked pretty well.
politely. “Tell me,” Benioff concludes, “how are you —Drake Bennett
thinking about that?”
THE BOTTOM LINE Having trouble reaching customers
The context for all of this is that it’s getting through traditional advertising, some unlikely companies including
harder for companies to reach people the way Salesforce are getting into the entertainment business.
YO U G O T HE D ISTAN CE
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SO D O W E.
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or hiring new employees, Dell Technologies Advisors are here to help with
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F
I
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A
N
C 25
Take My Pension E
Plan, Please
Booming markets have made it a great time for a
company to offload its retirement obligations
Many Americans who still have a traditional of a life insurance company. The insurer makes
pension—the kind that pays a regular income no money if it can earn more from investing the assets
matter what the market does—could soon have a than it has to pay out. (Another risk-transfer option
different company paying their benefits. U.S. com- is to offer to pay benefits in a lump sum; in that
panies owe current and future retirees and their case, the risk of ensuring the money lasts is taken
beneficiaries more than $3 trillion, and many have on by the pensioner rather than another company.)
been trying to exit the retirement business for These deals with insurers aren’t new, but record
years. Right now they have a golden opportunity high markets are making them especially attractive
ILLUSTRATION BY KATI SZILÁGYI
transfers a plan that’s not fully funded, it has to plan. Athene’s retirement assets have provided
pay to cover the shortfall. There’s a very small Apollo with a big pool of long-term capital it can
amount to make up right now. The 100 largest cor- invest and on which it’s earned lucrative fees.
porate pensions were funded at 97.1% in August, In March, Athene and Apollo announced a plan
according to the consultant Milliman Inc., and they to merge. “The reaction
could creep as high as 102% by the end of the year Pension plan participants might wonder how whenever
under optimistic projections. A year ago, pensions their benefits change after a risk-transfer deal there is change
were less than 87% funded. goes through. Most things will seem quite similar: is concern”
The window to strike a pension deal could close Payments will still arrive monthly and in the same
quickly. If the markets start to fade, an employer amounts; Prudential Financial Inc. says it matches
would need to pay more to top off its plan before previous payments down to the penny.
handing it over. Conversely, if a plan’s investments The big difference is in how these plans are
do well enough to surpass 100% funding, the spon- supervised. Rather than being insured by the
soring company has less incentive to exit as it could PBGC, which pays benefits up to a limit when a
face a tax bill. And it doesn’t benefit from having plan fails, they’re monitored by the state regu-
excess cash sitting idle in the fund. “There’s a bit lators who oversee insurance companies. Each
of an inflection point for sponsors as they reach state also has a guaranty association that can pro-
full funding,” says Matt McDaniel, a pension con- vide some protection if an insurance company
sultant with Mercer, which advises companies on collapses. Joshua Gotbaum, who served as the
their benefit plans. director of the PBGC during the Obama admin-
There have already been a handful of jumbo pen- istration, told a federal panel in 2013 that there
sion deals this year, including a $4.9 billion transac- was no real difference between a plan backed by
tion by Lockheed Martin Corp. and insurer Athene the PBGC and one managed by an insurer. James
Holding Ltd. and a $5.2 billion accord between Szostek, a vice president for the American Council
Prudential Financial Inc. and HP Inc. By yearend, of Life Insurers, says life insurers have “decades
26 insurance broker Willis Towers Watson Plc expects of experience managing long-term obligations” as
more than $30 billion worth of transactions, which well as being subject to regulatory oversight.
could make 2021 the busiest year since 2012. Even so, retiree advocates say the shift can be a
Companies have been eager to shed the plans source of consternation for pension participants.
for several reasons. The simplest one is risk: A pen- “The reaction whenever there’s change is con-
sion is a liability that sits on an employer’s balance cern,” says Norman Stein, a law professor at Drexel
sheet for a very long time, and it has to be paid University and a senior policy adviser to the Pension
even if business is slow and markets are down. Most Rights Center. In a stroke, people go from relying
companies now prefer to fund 401(k) plans, which on the company they worked for over a career to ○ Pension liabilities of
U.S. companies
put the burden of managing retirement assets on an insurer they may have never given a thought to.
the employee. Additionally, low interest rates and
bond yields mean that companies could struggle
Stein says some of the regulations around PRT trans-
actions and the protections for workers and retir-
$3t
in the future to earn high enough returns to fund ees after a switch can be murky. He says the shift
their obligations, even as the plans remain costly to can be particularly worrying in the case of insurers
maintain. Providers are required to pay premiums backed by private equity firms, which have a rep-
to the federally backed Pension Benefit Guaranty utation for risk-taking investments. Sean Brennan,
Corp., which insures the trillions of dollars of obli- executive vice president of pension risk transfer
gations the plans carry. at Athene, says insurers are a safer bet than many
Many life insurance companies like pension employer-run plans “with a bunch of equity and
assets because they can balance the obligations interest rate risk.”
against other products in their portfolios. For Since Prudential brokered two giant pension
example, pension payments are made as long as deals nine years ago, life insurers have expanded
a participant lives, while a life insurance policy is aggressively. There are now 19 life insurers willing
paid out only upon death. The insurer can hedge to strike PRT deals, and more are expected to enter
the risk of people living longer than expected the fray, Mercer’s McDaniel says.
ILLUSTRATION BY SAM ISLAND
against that of customers dying too soon. “Competition is certainly there,” says Melissa
Insurance companies backed by private equity Moore, senior vice president for U.S. pensions at
have also jumped into the business. Apollo Global MetLife Inc. That’s helped bring down the main
Management Inc. is the largest shareholder in cost of a transfer, which is buying the annuity.
Athene, which is taking on the Lockheed Martin “Annuity pricing is currently exceptional, and the
FINANCE Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
annuity market is bustling as a result,” says Steve plenty of businesses are looking to get out for good,
Keating, managing director at BCG Pension Risk according to Yanela Frias, president of Prudential’s
Consultants/BCG Penbridge, which helps employ- group insurance business. “The reality is that an
ers manage their retirement costs. insurance company is much better positioned to
A recent study commissioned by MetLife found manage this liability than a car manufacturer or a
that 93% of 250 plan sponsors surveyed intend telephone company,” Frias says. “We do this for a
to divest all of their obligations, up from 76% in living.” —Max Reyes
2019. Companies can choose to fully divest the
THE BOTTOM LINE U.S. employers have been trying for years to
plans or reduce the scope of pensions on their bal- get the cost of funding employees’ retirement off their books, and
ance sheets without removing them entirely. But insurance companies are ready to make them a deal.
Twentysomethings Spending
Other People’s Money
○ Young people are taking on Wall Street elites and joining the SPAC rush
Camarero’s team brought in Yoann Delwarde, a regulatory “quiet period” ahead of the IPO.
a 30-year-old consultant living in Shanghai, to serve Of course, for every SPAC managed by a
as chief executive officer of a SPAC seeking to raise twentysomething, dozens more are run by peo-
$50 million for a tech acquisition. A French engi- ple with decades of experience. Many in the busi-
neering grad who’s been in China for seven years, ness welcome fresh faces getting an opportunity
Delwarde advises startups on business develop- to take on the old guard. But with growing num-
ment and motivating their sales staff. He sees run- bers of SPACs chasing a shrinking pool of good
ning the blank-check company as a logical next step targets, the more established players are likely
and insists investors don’t care how old—or young—a to snap up the best deals, says David Pogemiller,
SPAC’s leaders might be. “It’s about the skill set and president of research firm Boardroom Alpha. “I
quality of the team and quality of the network,” he don’t think SPACs will go to the world of young
says, “rather than the age and the traditional ladder up-and-comers,” Pogemiller says. “Access to deal
of progress in the corporate environment.” flow and access to capital will be the real differ-
Many of the companies run by this new genera- entiators—and that access goes to those with
tion are targeting businesses with particular appeal experience.” —Ben Scent and Crystal Kim, with
to the young. Vikas Desai, the 30-year-old founder Eduardo Thomson and Rachel Adams-Heard
of cannabis investment firm WelCan Capital, plans
THE BOTTOM LINE Some 450 SPACs have had IPOs valued at
to raise $100 million for a SPAC focused on the $130 billion in the U.S. this year, 55% ahead of last year’s haul, and
emerging industry. Alexander Hornung, a 27-year- more and more often they’re being run by young people.
old living in Zurich, is chief financial officer of
Mountain & Co. I Acquisition Corp., which says it
will buy an internet business with the $200 million
it hopes to raise. Former Goldman Sachs Group
Brazil Speeds
Inc. banker Claire Councill, a board member of
a SPAC that plans to acquire an entertainment or
28 other consumer-focused business, was 26 when
the company raised $173 million in June.
Others are like Rose Hill Acquisition Corp.,
seeking to bring capital to a relatively neglected
corner of the world. Started by teammates on
the Cornell tennis squad, Rose Hill aims to raise
Up Mobile
$125 million to hunt for an acquisition in Latin
America, with a listing likely in October. Founders
Albert G. Hill IV and Juan Jose Rosas, both mem-
bers of the Delta Upsilon fraternity, spent time at
Chardan Capital Markets LLC, an adviser that’s
Payments
carved out a niche arranging blank-check deals. ○ A year ago the Pix platform didn’t exist.
Hill, a great-great-grandson of the legendary Now half the population uses it like cash
gambler-turned-oil baron H.L. Hunt, also had a
for those who already have bank accounts, but
Digital real-time
achieving financial inclusion is a whole different payments by market
50
the owner of a small cat-sitting business in Águas the economy has reopened, adding that “our plat-
Claras near Brasília uses it. “Before Pix existed, I form allows us to make adjustments very easily.”
had to have accounts in many different banks, so Policymakers in August added safeguards similar
that my clients wouldn’t have to pay the fee to send to those put on ATMs, such as limiting the amount
money to another bank—which could be 30% of the one can transfer at night, when such assaults are
cost of one of my visits and would weigh heavily most common.
on customers,” she says. “Now I just need to have Pix already faces competitors, such as a new
one account. This helps me control my finances.” payment service through the Facebook Inc.-owned
She often works on weekends and holidays, when messaging system WhatsApp. But the central bank
pet owners are traveling, and she’s able to receive aims to keep expanding Pix’s reach. It will soon offer
payment immediately instead of having to wait for ways for users to make payments when they aren’t
banks to open. connected to the Internet. Pix is also working on
One of the goals of the Central Bank of Brazil in allowing international transfers as well as making
creating Pix is to get more people inside the for- it possible for users to get cash from retailers as an
U.K.
mal financial system. “We want to offer an infra- alternative to ATMs. “We haven’t even started yet,”
structure able to meet all the needs of our society, said Campos Neto at an event hosted by the news- Mexico
especially in those sectors where needs are not paper Folha de São Paulo in August. “I would say we China
currently met,” Brandt says. But Pix by itself won’t have only used 5% of its potential.” —Maria Eloisa
South
be enough. Brazilians still need a bank account Capurro and Shannon Sims Korea
or some kind of payment service to use it, and
THE BOTTOM LINE Brazil’s central bank built a payments
about 30% still don’t have one. Initiatives such platform that works with multiple banks and payment services.
Japan
0
as Pix “make payments more efficient, especially It hopes this will bring more people into the financial system.
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
4
The Only College Beer
E Game That Matters
C A decades-old business school simulation exercise illuminates
how human error can snag up supply chains
N
last month when a couple of MIT students bought supply-and-demand dynamics among a brewery,
10,000 cases of beer. distributor, wholesaler, and retailer. At the Sept. 24
The purchase order wasn’t real. It was part game, held at a Marriott in Cambridge, Mass., Team
of a role-playing exercise called the Beer Game Bemba got nervous, made the big buy, and amassed
O
that’s something of a rite of passage for first-year $213,000 in make-believe carrying costs.
30
M
I
C
S
ILLUSTRATION BY THOMAS COLLIGAN. COURTESY MIT SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
Edited by
Cristina Lindblad
ECONOMICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
The real-life takeaway: The urge to hoard, which and fittings such as shelves, shopping carts, and “Traditionally
has fueled panic buying of everything from flour to lighting, and ships them to Europe. “I have no clear with inventory,
microchips, was alive and well in this crop of bud- predictability on when our goods can be shipped, the lower the
ding corporate managers. “The pandemic revealed so the obstacle is transportation from the factory better. But
flaws that were latent all along our globalized sup- to my warehouse in Germany because there are a the world is
ply chains,” said management professor John lot of uncertainties in between,” he says. different now”
Sterman, addressing the 125 assembled students Testrite Group, a Taiwanese trading company
before the game got under way. “It’s urgent that we that helps American big-box retailers source home
figure out how to improve them so we are prepared goods from more than 4,000 suppliers in markets
for the next shocks, whether another pandemic, including China, India, and Southeast Asia, is hav-
civil unrest, climate change—or all of the above.” ing to triple inventory levels, especially at U.S.
When the game wrapped after three hours, warehouses, because of shipping disruptions.
all 15 of the MIT teams had logged higher-than- “Traditionally with inventory, the lower the better.
average costs. So Sterman shifted the discussion to But the world is different now,” says Bruce Shen,
understanding how such a select group could “all
do so badly. And not just badly, but really badly.”
Sterman, who has been running students
through the Beer Game for four decades and has
written papers about it, compares it to the flight
simulators used to train airline pilots. The pan-
demic has driven home the importance of putting
would-be corporate managers through comparable
exercises to determine how they’ll react under
pressure. “In an aircraft, or a firm, failure is too
costly,” Sterman says. “Simulation is then the best,
and sometimes only, way we can learn for our- 31
selves how to manage complex systems.”
The Beer Game is designed to teach players
about the bullwhip effect, a systems theory devel-
oped around the work of Jay Forrester, a computer
engineer who joined Sloan’s faculty in the late 1950s.
In the simulation, an unexpectedly large order for a spokesman for the company. “An inventory rush The Beer Game
in action
beer typically sets off a wave of panic orders and like this was very rare before.”
inventory building, with the effects amplifying Sterman believes that focusing on Covid-related
along the supply chain back to the factory. anomalies as the main source of supply chain strains
All sorts of bullwhip effects are observable in underplays the cascading effect of bad decisions.
the global economy right now—ships backed up at “It’s not because of the pandemic. It’s because of
U.S. and Chinese ports, Britons lining up for gas, the way human beings reacted to the fear that the
carmakers idling production lines in response to pandemic induced,” he says. “That’s missing in the
a scarcity of chips. “Fear of running out is causing supply chain discussion these days.”
every company to over-order—like the toilet paper That diagnosis resonated with Michelle Diab,
shortage, but at epic scale,” Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk a student who took part in the September Beer
tweeted in June about semiconductors. Game. “The amygdala surges into powerful over-
More recently, American retailers have indicated drive with frantic orders for hundreds of units of
they’re stocking up as much as possible based on inventory, high levels of frustration, and blaming
expectations that consumer demand will stay strong the customer,” she says, referring to the zone of the
for the foreseeable future. “We’re ordering as much brain associated with fight-or-flight and other sur-
as we can and getting it in earlier, and I think as evi- vival behaviors. “I was left wondering how it is pos-
denced by most recent sales results, we’re doing OK sible that any organization is capable of any good if
with this,” said Richard Galanti, executive vice pres- this is our human disposition when under threat.”
ident and chief financial officer of Costco Wholesale One of the lessons from the Beer Game is that
Corp., on a Sept. 23 earnings call. trust and collaboration are integral to the smooth
As director of Schwarz Asia Pacific Sourcing functioning of supply chains. These can break
Ltd., a unit of one of the world’s biggest super- down when there are production bottlenecks or
market operators, Bjoern Lindner buys fixtures other types of stresses. For instance, a wholesaler
ECONOMICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
that suspects a usually dependable supplier may after the Biden administration froze assets held
prioritize orders from bigger clients is more likely at U.S. banks in mid-August, with others follow-
to place duplicate orders with several factories— ing Washington’s lead. Funding from the Word
even if it risks damaging valuable relationships and Bank and the International Monetary Fund is also
winding up with too much stock. on hold.
Mike Swartz, who played a wholesaler on the To conserve what little reserves are left, the
winning team, MmmmmmmBeer, says he focused Taliban have resorted to capital controls, includ-
on tracking orders from the retailer and antici- ing barring Afghans from taking dollars out of the
pating its needs without sending any bogus sig- country and limiting bank withdrawals to $200 a
nals in the form of an oversize order. The key, he week. In Kabul, some residents are selling furni-
says, was “trusting our teammates and keeping a ture and other household goods at flea markets to
cool head.” —Brendan Murray and Enda Curran, raise cash. “The liquidity crisis is worsening, and
with Cindy Wang many banks aren’t able to pay depositors,” says
Ahmad Khesrow Zia, the former chief executive
THE BOTTOM LINE A role-playing game devised by researchers
at MIT illustrates the workings of the bullwhip effect, a dynamic that
officer of Bank-e-Millie Afghan and now an eco-
has worsened supply chain disruptions amid the pandemic. nomics professor at a private university in Kabul.
Small and medium-size enterprises flourished
in the years after the Taliban were ousted in 2001,
increasing their role in Afghanistan’s $20 billion
economy. Now they’re at risk of extinction. “If
Afghanistan’s these companies collapse, the whole nation’s econ-
omy collapses,” says Khanjan Alokozay, a senior
Dollar Drought member of Afghanistan’s chamber of commerce.
Haleem Gul, an auto mechanic in Kabul, says
almost none of his customers have money to
32 ○ Cut off from central bank reserves and foreign pay for repairs. “Cash has absolutely vanished,”
aid, the economy is collapsing he says. Jawed Mehri, who runs a rug factory in
FROM TOP: ORIANE ZERAH/ABACA PRESS/ALAMY. MARCUS YAM/LOS ANGELES TIMES/POLARIS. DATA: WORLD BANK
gees. The UN in September announced $1.2 billion
in emergency pledges, while the U.S. has granted
sanctions exemptions for humanitarian organiza-
tions. China, which has criticized the U.S. freezing Currency dealers at
Kabul’s largest money
funds, will give $31 million in emergency aid. But exchange market
this will only go so far in a country where external
aid accounted for about 75% of public spending in
recent years.
Bismillah Zakeri, who left his job as an admin-
istrator in the Ministry of Education before the fall
of Kabul, has taken to selling his family’s belong-
ings on the street to raise money for food and to
fund his planned journey to neighboring Pakistan.
“What else can we do to survive?” he says. “If the
hunger doesn’t kill us, the fear, anxiety, and depres-
sion because of the Taliban regime definitely will.”
—Eltaf Najafizada, with Ismail Dilawar
join his cabinet. The role of treasury secretary was central banker. In public she has remarked about
tough to turn down, and it made her the first per- monetary policy in ways that her predecessors
son to hold the three top economic jobs in govern- avoided, causing hiccups in financial markets one
ment: helming the Treasury Department, the Fed, day in May by saying interest rates will likely rise
and the White House Council of Economic Advisers. as government spending ramps up. Although the
With staff, she’s been frank about her reluc- statement was self-evident, the rare outlook on
tance to take the job, joking that she came out of rates from a cabinet member gave jitters to some
retirement to work for Biden, according to people in the White House. Asked during an interview with
familiar with the matter who asked to remain anon- Bloomberg in June if the administration would give
ymous because they aren’t authorized to speak to up on massive spending plans if inflation got out of
the press. That has Wall Street and administration control, she quickly launched into a speech about
officials wondering when she will step down from a higher interest-rate environment.
the Treasury Department. Some aides inside the Even on Fed issues, where her expertise is
administration are even taking bets on whether she strongest, Yellen has been unable to unite the
resigns before or after midterm elections in 2022, Democratic Party behind her recommendation to
according to people familiar with the matter. reappoint Powell as Fed chair. In keeping with Fed
Inside the White House, officials say Yellen’s tradition, she rarely takes questions from the press.
desire to go back into retirement is clear, and some Yellen didn’t have a direct hand in molding
have privately criticized her approach as not ener- Biden’s key policies, which were shaped before
getic or visible enough. White House Chief of Staff his inauguration by close, longtime advisers such
Ron Klain disputes this. “You can’t overstate how as Jared Bernstein. From Duy’s perch as an econ-
invaluable Secretary Yellen is to President Biden,” omist advising Wall Street clients, Yellen appears
he said in a statement. “She brings unmatched to be “playing a supporting role” in setting an eco-
experience and credibility to the job.” nomic policy agenda that is “largely driven by the
Eight months into Yellen’s tenure, “we’re all White House.” Blinder, the ex-Fed official, agrees,
36 learning that she’s not speaking as Fed chair noting that most of Biden’s economic plan had
but as treasury secretary,” says Tim Duy of SGH been built before Yellen joined the administra-
Macro Advisors. tion. “They weren’t waiting for Janet Yellen to be
But she sometimes seems to still be acting like a named,” he says.
This role, of policy taker rather than maker, sug-
gests a Treasury Department that’s less visible than
it’s been in previous administrations, when treasury
secretaries would shuttle from office to office on
Capitol Hill to talk with lawmakers and appear regu-
larly on TV to tout the president’s economic agenda.
An administration official who requested ano-
nymity to discuss an internal matter says Yellen
is the only cabinet official who participates in Top: Yellen, who
then chaired the White
daily White House senior staff calls. She regularly House Council of
engages with members of Congress in both par- Economic Advisers, with
President Bill Clinton
ties, the person says, and with Democratic, but not and other officials in FROM TOP: JOYCE NALTCHAYAN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES. KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS
Fostering
the Desire to
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bloomberg.com/familywealth
Yellen has already notched some significant speaks, everyone listens both at home and abroad.”
wins. In July she led the Group of 20 finance min- Yellen is also using her voice to try to convince
isters in striking a deal on global taxes that had voters, lawmakers, and Wall Street that massive stim-
eluded negotiators for almost a decade. In March, ulus won’t translate to runaway prices. So far she
Biden signed a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill, and Powell are on the same page: The spike in prices
which passed Congress after Yellen helped con- is a temporary headache caused by an economy
vince lawmakers that the economy was in need of adjusting to a once-in-a-century crisis. Whether that
another fiscal boost, and she has shoveled more assessment is correct may not be obvious for years,
than $700 billion to families and businesses. She but the results are likely to be factored into Yellen’s
has also filled her agency with the most diverse legacy. —Saleha Mohsin, with Christopher Condon
senior officials in its history.
THE BOTTOM LINE Yellen’s approach to the job of treasury
Klain, Biden’s chief of staff, calls her a “tireless secretary involves less politicking than some would like, but her
driving force” of the president’s agenda: “When she credibility on economic issues transcends partisan divides.
After Joe Biden locked up the Democratic away. Rather, Biden’s agenda was split between
38 presidential nomination in the spring of 2020, two bills to create a dynamic of mutually assured
Democrats in the party’s progressive and centrist destruction that was supposed to ensure that nei-
wings exhibited what was, for them, an unusual ther side could walk away. Centrists hoping to cam-
type of behavior: unity. Although the presidential paign on the $550 billion roads and bridges package
primaries highlighted Democrats’ growing ideo- would have to agree to a reconciliation bill in the
logical fissures, even left-wing firebrands such as neighborhood of $3.5 trillion; liberals eager to
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expand the welfare state and protect the climate
spurned reporters’ efforts to sow division and would have to back robust spending on mundane
quickly fell in behind the centrist Biden. Democrats construction projects. As long as the party stuck
across the spectrum calculated that they would fare together, it would have just enough votes to push
better with one of their own in the White House. the president’s agenda across the finish line.
That same logic underlies the Democrats’ two- But that logic foundered in late September
step strategy for realizing Biden’s agenda. By marry- when two centrist Democratic senators, Joe
ing an infrastructure bill with a social spending bill, Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of
both wings of the party would advance their agen- Arizona, balked at the size of the reconciliation
das in tandem while showing voters that Biden bill and quickly unwound 18 months of Biden- “Everybody is
really was the dealmaker he touted himself to be led party unity. “Failure to pass it rips the ban- trying to make
on the campaign trail. The infrastructure bill passed dage off the wound within the Democratic Party this marriage
the Senate in August. But House Speaker Nancy between the progressive and centrist wings of the work”
Pelosi’s decision on Oct. 1 to delay indefinitely a party,” says Jim Kessler, executive vice president for
vote on an infrastructure bill brought a swift end to policy at the centrist Democratic group Third Way.
Democratic comity. It also raised a possibility that Kessler remains optimistic that Democrats will
most Democrats are loath to confront: They could come together, if only because recent history illus-
ILLUSTRATION BY RICHARD A. CHANCE
end up with nothing and pay a steep electoral price. trates just how costly their failure to do so could be.
“The midterms are already going to be hard,” “In both 1994 and 2010, Democrats had a new pres-
says Rebecca Katz, a progressive strategist aligned ident in the White House, majorities in Congress,
with several groups and politicians on the party’s and major legislation that failed leading up to the
left flank. “They don’t have to be a bloodbath.” midterm elections,” he says, alluding to Bill Clinton’s
Lawmakers and strategists from both wings of health-care bill and Barack Obama’s climate legis-
the party concede that tensions never really went lation, respectively. Both times, Democrats were
POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
routed at the polls. “If we don’t have a reconciliation disappointed in some things,” Democratic Majority
bill, it’s a disaster for Democrats,” Kessler says. Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters on Oct 5.
Veterans of those administrations say mitigating Voters have already begun to waver. In a Sept. 22
the political damage from such a collapse is all but Gallup Poll, Biden’s approval rating fell to only 43%,
impossible. “I tried to get Clinton to give a speech the lowest point of his eight-month presidency. His
explaining the reason [the health-care bill] was not approval rating among independents has fallen
happening,” says Stanley Greenberg, Clinton’s poll- 24 points since January, to 37%.
ster at the time, “that it had been stopped by the Jentleson says he worries that a midterm rout
insurance companies—the powerful special inter- wouldn’t be the full extent of the price Democrats
ests who control Washington and Republicans would pay for failing to deliver the president’s
who hated this change.” Clinton demurred, and agenda. Biden ran for office on the strength of his
Democrats went on to lose 54 House seats and lengthy experience as a senator and vice president
$3.5t
39
eight Senate seats. They fared no better in 2010, and a promise that he could restore Washington
losing 63 House seats and seven Senate seats in to a functional civility that disappeared during the
what Obama aptly characterized as “a shellacking.” chaotic tenure of President Donald Trump. The
Those losses remain vivid in the mind of most early collapse of his main legislative efforts would
Democrats. They’re the driving force behind both undermine the whole premise of Biden’s presi-
sides’ grudging efforts to come to an agreement dency. “Ultimately,” Jentleson says, “Biden’s case
on a more modestly scaled reconciliation package. for reelection relies on being able to say that his
“Everybody is trying to make this marriage work,” approach worked.”
says Adam Jentleson, a former top aide to Harry The specter of losing the White House in 2024
Reid of Nevada, who was the Democrats’ Senate could be the glue that holds Democrats together
leader under Obama. “Things could get really ugly in the rocky weeks ahead, as they work to salvage
if Biden’s agenda goes down.” Biden’s legislative agenda. “It should be in every
For now, it’s in deep freeze. In an effort to revive Democrat’s interest to have Biden be widely pop-
it, Biden has worked to lower progressives’ expec- ular,” Katz says. “But if a few centrist holdouts
tations for a reconciliation bill, suggesting to House tank his agenda, they’re making him a weaker
Democrats in a recent private meeting that a price president.” —Joshua Green
tag of $1.9 trillion to $2.3 trillion is more realistic,
THE BOTTOM LINE Failure by Democrats to pass a reconciliation
although neither Manchin nor Sinema has indicated package would undermine Biden’s presidency, a fate that centrists
they’d accept that. “Just about everyone will be and leftists alike are eager to avoid, whatever their differences.
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In July, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen summoned the chair of could cascade into the regulated financial system by crashing
the Federal Reserve, the head of the Securities and Exchange credit markets. If the trolls are right, and Tether is a Ponzi
Commission, and six other top officials for a meeting to dis- scheme, it would be larger than Bernie Madoff’s.
cuss Tether. The absurdity of the situation couldn’t have been So earlier this year I set out to solve the mystery. The money
lost on them: Inflation was spiking, a Covid surge threatened trail led from Taiwan to Puerto Rico, the French Riviera, main-
the economic recovery, and Yellen wanted to talk about a dig- land China, and the Bahamas. One of Tether’s former bankers
ital currency dreamed up by the former child actor who’d told me that its top executive had been putting its reserves at
missed a penalty shot in The Mighty Ducks. But Tether had risk by investing them to earn potentially hundreds of millions
gotten so large that it threatened to put the U.S. financial sys- of dollars of profit for himself. “It’s not a stablecoin, it’s a high-
tem at risk. It was as if a playground snowball fight had esca- risk offshore hedge fund,” said John Betts, who ran a bank in
lated so wildly that the Joint Chiefs of Staff were being called Puerto Rico Tether used. “Even their own banking partners
in to avert a nuclear war. don’t know the extent of their holdings, or if they exist.”
Tether is what’s come to be known in financial circles as
a stablecoin—stable because one Tether is supposed to be A green pentagon emblazoned with a white T represents the
backed by one dollar. But it’s actually more like a bank. The Tether coin on the company’s website, which promises
company that issues the currency, Tether Holdings Ltd., takes “Digital money for a digital age.” The logo doesn’t look like
in dollars from people who want to trade crypto and cred- much, but it’s probably the most normal thing about Tether
its their digital wallets with an equal amount of Tethers in Holdings, which is weird in almost every way imaginable.
return. Once they have Tethers, people can send them to Only a dozen employees are listed on LinkedIn, a tiny num-
cryptocurrency exchanges and use them to bet on the price ber for a company with $69 billion under management.
of Bitcoin, Ether, or any of the thousands of other coins. And Tether’s website also touts a settlement with New York’s
at least in theory, Tether Holdings holds on to the dollars attorney general, but the announcement of that settlement
so it can return them to anyone who wants to send in their made it sound like the company had been up to some horri-
tokens and get their money back. The convoluted mechanism ble stuff. Tether Holdings had been “operated by unlicensed
became popular because real banks didn’t want to do busi- and unregulated individuals and entities dealing in the dark-
ness with crypto companies, especially foreign ones. est corners of the financial system,” Letitia James, the attor- 43
Exactly how Tether is backed, or if it’s truly backed at all, ney general, said in a statement.
has always been a mystery. For years a persistent group of Elsewhere on the website, there’s a letter from an account-
critics has argued that, despite the company’s assurances, ing firm stating that Tether has the reserves to back its coins,
Tether Holdings doesn’t have enough assets to maintain along with a pie chart showing that about $30 billion of its
the 1-to-1 exchange rate, meaning its coin is essentially a fraud. dollar holdings are invested in commercial paper—short-term
But in the crypto world, where joke coins with pictures of loans to corporations. That would make Tether the seventh-
dogs can be worth billions of dollars and scammers period- largest holder of such debt, right up there with Charles Schwab
ically make fortunes with preposterous-sounding schemes, and Vanguard Group.
Tether seemed like just another curiosity. To fact-check this claim, a few colleagues and I canvassed
Then, this year, Tether Holdings started putting out a huge Wall Street traders to see if any had seen Tether buying any-
amount of digital coins. There are now 69 billion Tethers in thing. No one had. “It’s a small market with a lot of people who
circulation, 48 billion of them issued this year. That means know each other,” said Deborah Cunningham, chief invest-
the company supposedly holds a corresponding $69 billion ment officer of global money markets at Federated Hermes,
in real money to back the coins—an amount that would make an asset management company in Pittsburgh. “If there were
it one of the 50 largest banks in the U.S., if it were a U.S. bank a new entrant, it would be usually very obvious.”
and not an unregulated offshore company. It wasn’t clear which regulatory body is responsible for
On Twitter, on business TV, and on hedge fund and invest- overseeing Tether. On a podcast, a company representative
ment bank trading floors, everyone started asking why said it was registered with the British Virgin Islands Financial
Tether was minting so many coins and whether it really had Investigation Agency. But the agency’s director, Errol George,
the money it claimed to have. An anonymous anti-Tether told me in an email that it doesn’t oversee Tether. “We don’t
blog post titled “The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday and never have.”
Machine” went viral, and CNBC host Jim Cramer told viewers The chief executive officer listed on Tether’s website, J.L.
to sell their crypto. “If Tether collapsed, well then, it’s going Van der Velde, is a Dutchman who lives in Hong Kong and
to gut the whole crypto ecosystem,” he warned. seems never to have given an interview or spoken at a confer-
As far as the regulators are concerned, the size of Tether’s ence. The chief financial officer is Giancarlo Devasini, a former
supposed dollar holdings is so big that it would be dangerous plastic surgeon from Italy who was once described on Tether’s
even assuming the dollars are real. If enough traders asked for website as the founder of a successful electronics business.
their dollars back at once, the company could have to liquidate The only reference to him that turned up in a search of Italian
its assets at a loss, setting off a run on the not-bank. The losses newspapers showed he was once fined for selling counterfeit
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
Microsoft software. He didn’t respond to emails or messages viewed it as an industry standard. Even so, many had their
on Telegram, where he goes by Merlinthewizard. own conspiracy theories about the currency. It’s controlled
Tether’s lawyer, Stuart Hoegner, told me by phone that Van by the Chinese mafia; the CIA uses it to move money; the gov-
der Velde and Devasini prefer to avoid the limelight. He called ernment has allowed it to get huge so it can track the criminals
Tether’s critics “jihadists” set on the company’s destruction. who use it. It wasn’t that they trusted Tether, I realized. It was
“We maintain a clear, comprehensive, and sophisticated risk that they needed Tether to trade and were making too much
management framework for safeguarding and investing the money using it to dig too deeply. “It could be way shakier, and
reserves,” he said, adding that no customer had ever asked I wouldn’t care,” said Dan Matuszewski, co-founder of CMS
for money back and been refused. Holdings LLC, a cryptocurrency investment firm.
But when I asked where Tether was keeping its money, he
declined to say. Nor was I reassured when he told me the com- In the 1800s the hunters, trappers, and cowboys on the
pany had more than enough cash to cover the most money American frontier faced a currency shortage. The U.S. govern-
it had ever had to pay out in a single day. Bank runs can last ment didn’t issue paper money at the time, only gold and silver
longer than 24 hours. Hoegner later responded to follow-up coins, because its early leaders were fearful of inflation—“an
questions with an emailed statement saying my reporting was infinity of successive felonious larcenies,” according to John
“nothing more than a compilation of innuendo and misinfor- Adams. So some states allowed banks to print their own notes,
mation shared by disgruntled individuals with no involve- redeemable for U.S. coins on demand. But certain banks didn’t
ment with or direct knowledge of the business’s operations.” bother to hold the corresponding reserves. These institutions
He added: “Success speaks for itself.” came to be called “wildcats,” supposedly because they discour-
It was hard to believe that people had sent $69 billion in aged borrowers from bringing notes in to exchange by locating
real U.S. dollars to a company that seemed to be practically branches in remote areas where wild animals roamed.
quilted out of red flags. But every day, on cryptocurrency Many of these banks failed. One in Michigan filled boxes
exchanges, traders buy and sell Tether coins as if they’re just with nails and glass, then covered them with a thin layer of
as good as dollars. Some days, more than $100 billion in Tether silver coins to fool examiners, who weren’t fooled. “What
changes hands. It seemed the people with the most at stake in a temptation was this for the unscrupulous speculator, the
44 the crypto markets trusted Tether, and I wanted to know why. adventurer, dreaming only of wealth, and ready to hazard all
Luckily, in June, 12,000 of them were gathering in Miami for in pursuit of it,” Alpheus Felch, a state bank commissioner at
what was billed as the biggest crypto conference ever. the time, later wrote.
At the Mana Wynwood Convention Center, I found the Almost two centuries later, the same temptation appeared
usual cringey crypto signifiers. Models walked the floor body- before Brock Pierce, a former child actor who’d played the
painted with Bitcoin’s logo. A podcast host screamed, “F--- younger version of Emilio Estevez’s character in the Mighty
Elon.” A dumpster full of Venezuelan bolivars was labeled Ducks films. Now Pierce wears loud hats, vests, and bracelets,
“cash is trash.” The place was full of people who held Tether. like Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean, and speaks in rid-
Sam Bankman-Fried, a 29-year-old billionaire who was in town dles, like Johnny Depp in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
to rename Miami’s basketball arena after his cryptocurrency After founding a successful brokerage for buying and selling
exchange, FTX, told me he’d bought billions of Tethers, using video game items—at which he employed, of all people, future
them to facilitate trading other coins. “If you’re a crypto com- Trump consigliere Steve Bannon—Pierce was one of the few
pany, banks are nervous to work with you,” he said. early Bitcoiners with real money to invest. “I’m not an amateur
His explanation doesn’t make much sense if you still think of entrepreneur throwing darts in the dark,” he told me by phone
Tether still hasn’t disclosed where it’s keeping its money. But when I asked Chalopin if he knew for sure that Tether’s
The only financial institution I could find that was willing assets were fully secure now, he laughed. It was a difficult
to say it’s currently working with the company was Deltec question, he said. He only held cash and extremely low-risk
Bank & Trust in the Bahamas. I met the bank’s chairman, bonds for Tether. But recently the company had started using
Jean Chalopin, in Deltec’s office, on the top floor of a six-story other banks to handle its money. Only a quarter of it—$15 bil-
building ringed with palm trees in a nice part of Nassau. In a lion or so—is still with Deltec. “I cannot speak about what I
past life, Chalopin co-created the cartoon Inspector Gadget, cannot know,” he said. “I can only control what’s with us.”
and a painting of the 1980s trenchcoat-wearing cyborg After I returned to the U.S., I obtained a document showing
policeman hung on his office door. Magazine covers fea- a detailed account of Tether Holdings’ reserves. It said they
turing Chalopin’s wife, a former model, and his daughter, include billions of dollars of short-term loans to large Chinese
a singer, were displayed on a shelf. Now 71, Chalopin has companies—something money-market funds avoid. And that
a mop of red hair and wears rimless round glasses. As we was before one of the country’s largest property developers,
sat down, he pulled a book about financial fraud, Misplaced China Evergrande Group, started to collapse. I also learned
Trust, off the shelf. “People do funny things for money,” he that Tether had lent billions of dollars more to other crypto
said, cryptically. companies, with Bitcoin as collateral. One of them is Celsius
He made himself a cup of tea and told me he’d come to the Network Ltd., a giant quasi-bank for cryptocurrency inves-
Bahamas in 1987 after selling his first animation studio, DIC tors, its founder Alex Mashinsky told me. He said he pays an
Entertainment. The sale had made him rich—he bought a cas- interest rate of 5% to 6% on $1 billion in loans from Tether.
tle outside Paris and a pink colonial in the Bahamas, which Tether has denied holding any Evergrande debt, but Hoegner,
later served as the villain’s home in the 2006 James Bond film Tether’s lawyer, declined to say whether Tether had other
Casino Royale. He banked at Deltec, Chinese commercial paper. He said the vast majority of its
then befriended its aging founder. commercial paper has high grades from credit ratings firms,
The bank, which once conducted and that its secured loans are low-risk, because borrowers
investment banking throughout have to put up Bitcoin that’s worth more than what they bor-
Latin America, had dwindled to row. “All Tether tokens are fully backed,” he said.
just a few billion dollars of assets. Tether’s Chinese investments and crypto-backed loans are 47
Chalopin invested, eventually potentially significant. If Devasini is taking enough risk to earn
becoming the biggest shareholder. even a 1% return on Tether’s entire reserves, that would give
Bahamian banks are often depicted him and his partners a $690 million annual profit. But if those
in movies as a haven for money laun- loans fail, even a small percentage of them, one Tether would
derers, but Chalopin said Deltec’s become worth less than $1. Any investors holding Tethers
Chalopin
edge was customer service, not would then have an incentive to redeem them; if others did
secrecy. He decided to seek out clients in new lines of busi- it first, the money could dry up. The bank run would be on.
ness, such as biotech, gene editing, and artificial intelligence, The officials who gathered in July at the Treasury
that were too small to get personal attention from bigger Department are discussing regulating Tether like a bank, which
banks. Another area was cryptocurrencies. “Crypto was like, would force Devasini to finally show where the money is, or
‘Don’t touch, it’s very dangerous,’ ” he said. “Well, if you dig even undermining it by issuing an official U.S. stablecoin. The
a little bit deeper, you realize it’s not, actually.” strange thing is that, at least for now, most participants in the
He said he was introduced to Devasini in 2017 by a cus- crypto market, including some very large and sophisticated
tomer who’d gotten rich from Bitcoin. Devasini cooked operators, don’t seem to care about any of the risks. Just last
Chalopin a risotto lunch and impressed him with his forth- month, traders bought $3 billion in new Tethers, presumably
rightness. When they discovered that Devasini had grown up sending billions of perfectly good U.S. dollars to the Inspector
in the same Italian village as Chalopin’s mother, they began Gadget co-creator’s Bahamian bank in exchange for digital
calling each other cugino (cousin). Devasini bought a house tokens conjured by the Mighty Ducks guy and run by execu-
near Chalopin’s in the Bahamas, and together they purchased tives who are targets of a U.S. criminal investigation.
and divided the waterfront lot between the two properties. The situation has parallels to the wildcat banking days. The
Chalopin told me Tether had been unfairly maligned. “There’s customers patronizing those not-banks weren’t rubes; sketchy
no agenda or plot,” he said. “They are not Enron or Madoff. notes were the only money they could find. But that ended
When there’s a problem, they fix it honorably.” when, in the early days of the Civil War, President Abraham
Chalopin said he investigated Tether for months before tak- Lincoln started printing federal paper money and instituted
REBECCA SAPP/GETTY IMAGES
ing the company on as a client in November 2018. He signed a a prohibitively high tax on other currency. The wildcat notes,
letter vouching for its assets. He was surprised that critics still which once fueled frontier cities’ economies, fell into dis-
insisted Tether’s currency was not backed by cash. “Frankly, use. Some gave them to children to play with. In rural areas,
the biggest thing was at the time ‘the money doesn’t exist,’” he they were used for wallpaper. —With Daniele Lepido,
said. “We knew the money exists! It was sitting here.” Alex Harris, Joanna Ossinger, Amanda Wang, and Allen Wan
Bloomberg Businessweek
↓ Cheniere Energy’s
liquefied natural gas
facility in Cameron
Parish; (inset) house in
the Holly Beach area
48
B o o mt o
In the Eva c u a t i ein g b a tte re d
hwe s t Lo u isia na is b
Sou t
in g o ut , w or ke r
lo c als a re m ov
But while l iz e o n a
to cap it a
October 11, 2021
o 49
ion Z o n e
by hurricanes. e sw arm ing in
th e c ou ntr y ar
rs from around
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Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
f you drive far enough down through only a lost fence or a roof puncture the American Press newspaper. Many
L
ast Oct. 10, hours after the eye
DATA: U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION; NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
of Delta struck Cameron, I was
splashing down Highway 27 in stranded shrimping boat like a beached modern run of megastorms began with
hip waders when I noticed the birds. turquoise whale, bags of Zapps potato Audrey, which made landfall in 1957
The pelicans and terns were flying chips still clinging to racks inside. I sent between Holly Beach and the mouth of
twisted and scattered, as though they Smith a pic, but she didn’t write back. the Sabine River, where Cheniere LNG
were still caught in the 100 mph winds, Maybe she was busy, or maybe she is located now. Lacking a storm-warning
desperately disoriented. couldn’t bring herself to reply. system, advanced radar, Doppler tech- 51
I was lost, too. I was trying to find One block over, a home alarm was nology, or the Saffir-Simpson category
Tressie Smith’s restaurant, Anchors beep-beep-beeping beneath a pile of scale and its cones of danger, the peo-
Up, but with most buildings destroyed debris. The only other sound was the ple of Cameron only had the word
or partly submerged and all the signs rhythmic lull of waves lapping against of their local weatherman to go on.
blown away, the town I’d known since the remains of people’s lives. A small Hundreds died.
childhood no longer seemed to exist. herd of newly stray dogs and cats The day before Audrey hit, the
Smith had asked me to take a photo of started following me around, meowing Weather Bureau warned everyone liv-
Anchors Up so she’d know if there was and yipping, jumping from one junk ing in “low and exposed places along
anything worth going back for. She’d pile to the next, hoping for food. the beach” to move to higher ground,
been at a relative’s house in Lake Charles At First Baptist Church, the windows but many people didn’t, either because
during Laura, texting me as things esca- Laura had blown out were replaced by they weren’t on the beach or they didn’t
lated: “Raining like hell.” “Lights flicker- plastic sheets that flapped and swished believe they lived in a low-lying area. A
ing.” “Power off.” When Cameron was in the wind. Inside, dozens of folding man named Whitney Bartie lost his fam-
evacuated in advance of Delta, Smith got tables had been set up, with donations ily when the storm swept them off the
wise and drove all the way to Houston. sent after Laura stacked high: cloth- roof, one by one. He sued the federal
The morning after the storm, they let ing, loaves of bread, water, diapers. It government, claiming its warnings had
the media in, and I told her I’d report would have been a heartwarming scene been insufficient to the point of negli-
back on what I found. of community resilience, had Delta not gence. The lawsuit recounts that a TV
I walked through the main ceme- swept in. Clothes and diapers were news broadcast the night of the storm
tery and saw that the mausoleum was sopped with swamp water, as were the had said “there is no need for alarm
exposed, with rows of empty slots where bread slices that littered the floor. Water tonight” and “you can rest well tonight.”
bodies had once rested; the caskets had jugs had fallen and burst. In one cor- It later emerged that the advice had
floated out into the floodwaters. A lit- ner a whiteboard cheerfully announced, been intended only for Lake Charles
tle farther along the road, I spotted “Take what you need!” It was a pic- residents, not Cameron, but the words
Anchors Up. The place had lived up to ture of compounded sorrow: Cameron became local legend down here anyway.
its name, casting off from its foundation hadn’t recovered from the first disaster So, too, did the accounts of survi-
and drifting, intact, on the storm surge before the next one hit. vors. Archives compiled by the National
to the parking lot behind the Capital In a sense, that’s how history has Weather Service and the Louisiana
One, about a block away. It sat next to a played out here for decades. The Digital Library include the story of
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
a man and his niece who “floated for a rummage sale with hardly any beckoning Texans over the bridge to
out the window” and then were sepa- customers. “I’ve been fighting water for its gaudy casinos. And Guilott-Mcinnis
rated by a tidal wave that cast the man, so long. I’m so tired of fixing shit. I feel was now a four-time loser, one of many.
clinging to a piece of wood, 3 miles so defeated.” She gasps between hic- U.S. Postal Service address-change
away. Cameron, population 3,000, cups. “I-I-I just want to leave and start records suggest that Lake Charles lost
was left looking, in the words of Mrs. fresh somewhere else, anywhere.” a greater share of its population in
John R. Smith, “as if no one had ever Guilott-Mcinnis had a baby right 2020 than anywhere else in the coun-
lived there.” I still remember reading, before the pandemic hit. A few months try, shrinking 6.7%. The true figure is
later she took over the laundro- likely higher, because registering an
mat business her grandfather address change isn’t at the top of most
had started, only to watch the evacuees’ priority list. Following the
virus drive customers away. May floods the city government esti-
“I thought that was the worst of mated that 3,000 of 80,000 residents
it—Covid plus a baby plus a fail- were displaced, and it wasn’t clear if
ing business,” she says. “Then they’d ever come back. The trend is
the hurricanes began.” best described as a climate exodus.
In August, Laura ripped Guilott-Mcinnis and her husband
down the chimney and many are moving to Fayetteville, Ark. She
of the eaves of her home, a doesn’t know anyone there, but she
↑ Ruined homes in Cameron after Audrey
midcentury geodesic dome heard it was nice.
in the town’s old library (itself since with a sunken den. Six weeks later,
destroyed by a storm), the tale of a when Delta dumped its record-setting own in Cameron you can find
child who’d seen a ghost dressed in a
long white gown calling his name before
water sucked her out the back door. His
21 inches of water in Lake Charles, the
rain streamed down the inside walls— D signs of a revival, albeit one
that’s leaving the town look-
“like from a faucet,” Guilott-Mcinnis ing much different than it’s ever been.
52 mother. says—and drenched the bedrooms. Homes that became debris piles are
Stories such as these have suffused Come February, the freeze caused a being raked up and hauled out, and in
Cameron with a haunted, gothic feel, pipe to burst. She and her husband had their place hundreds of RVs have moved
persisting through a relative quiet spell to rip down a wall by hand so they could in. Many are company-owned: shiny,
until Rita (2005) and Ike (2008) pum- stanch the spray. matching, and new, powered by a hum-
meled the region in short sequence. In May, Guilott-Mcinnis was dropping ming chorus of generators.
With every new storm, people’s rela- off her baby at her mom’s when she got The change has happened fast.
tionship to nature frayed further. Many stranded by high water from the ran- Cameron is no longer a deep-rooted
locals carry the trauma defiantly, as a dom, pre-summer swirl of storms that shrimping town. It’s become a get-in-
sword against impending reality, insist- were bringing the thousand-year flood. and-get-out LNG town, the lodging site
ing on finding ways to stay put, storm Her husband phoned and said the
after storm after storm after storm. water was up to their front door. ↓ Guilott-Mcinnis and her daughter, Celeste
In her 2016 book about southwest Half an hour later came the call
Louisiana, Strangers in Their Own Land, she’d feared all year. “It’s done,”
sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild he told her. Their home, which
calls this attitude the “Great Paradox.” she’d bought at 23, poured almost
She concludes that people here dis- $100,000 into, and blogged about
miss skeptics, critics, and reality itself, because of its historic design, had
because they want badly to hold on to completely flooded. The family’s
the “elation” that comes with living most important possessions were
their own truth. But the storms of the floating around in Tupperware,
past few years are testing that elation a precautionary measure they’d
like never before. taken as the forecast worsened.
THE BEAUMONT ENTERPRISE/AP PHOTO
I
feel powerless against Mother the doorjamb below where they’d
Nature.” measured the two kids’ heights in
Sarah Guilott-Mcinnis is sob- green marker.
bing in her kitchen in Lake Charles, Lake Charles is a gambling
where she’s opened up her cabinets town, with billboards and leg-
full of colorful dishes and glass pitchers ends of pirates and buried bullion
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
for one of America’s most Covid-proof, each fit a 747 inside. There are two ship down. Miller points out that employees
booming industries. As of this June the berths; a third is on the way. are required to back in their cars when
local government placed the permanent All of this investment has to be pro- they park, so they can get out quickly in
population at 50 to 75 people, compared tected, of course. After Hurricane Ida an emergency. The only time the plant
with 900 more-transient facilities work- made landfall to the southeast in late has ever shut down and evacuated com-
ers. A gig at one of the plants brings in August, the Coast Guard received thou- pletely was during Laura.
$1,796 a week, on average, a wage the sands of reports of pollution seeping After Laura, some of the area’s LNG
Cameron Parish port touts as the coun- from the industrial corridor envi- terminals went offline, but within two
try’s highest for counties with a com- ronmentalists have dubbed Cancer weeks feed gas deliveries were again on
parable number of jobs. In the past Alley, and the National Oceanic and the move, and cargo ships were churn-
15 years, the parish’s median house- Atmospheric Administration received ing up and down the Sabine Pass. Delta,
hold income has almost doubled, from 55 spill reports. A similar storm in south- the freeze, and the floods saw only
$35,000 to $67,000. west Louisiana could be even more peril- a chlorine plant explosion, outside
Workers are bused daily to the two ous. Laura threatened 3.5 million barrels Lake Charles where the petrochemical
LNG facilities already operating here,
Cheniere and Cameron, and to the
six additional developments that are
under construction. Right over the bor-
der in Texas two more are being built.
According to a report from McKinsey
& Co. in February, 200 million met-
ric tons’ worth of new capacity will
be required by 2050 to meet global
demand. A big share of that will be in
southwest Louisiana.
On a sinisterly hot afternoon, I 53
toured Cheniere’s sprawling LNG facil-
ity, situated on a plateau of old Army
Corps of Engineers dredge spoils. LNG
is methane gas in liquid form. The
gas is piped into southwest Louisiana
from fracking sites around the country,
then cooled for liquefaction. The liquid
takes up one-six-hundredth the space
as the gas, making it vastly more cost-
effective to export. Once it reaches its
destination, it’s heated back into gas
↑ The Cheniere LNG facility
form for consumer use. Cheniere is
the largest American LNG producer per day of refining capacity, according refineries are—not bad for a place rife
and one of the world’s biggest export- to the American Fuel & Petrochemical with hazmat sites. Before I head back
ers. China and the European Union Manufacturers, and the flurry of LNG to Cameron, Miller reminds me of how
are its biggest customers, and Brazil is construction has left a vulnerable collec- much Cheniere has invested in storm-
gaining quick. tion of massive, half-built facilities. The proofing and notes that LNG would
Cameron and the Sabine Pass’s posi- industry has spent millions to safeguard “evaporate 100%” if it were to spill.
tion on the coast and in the middle of infrastructure in the area, and thus far, Within the industry, LNG is seen as a
the U.S. made the site ideal for import it has escaped major damage. solution to climate change, not a contrib-
terminals back when the country was As we tour Cheniere’s facilities in a utor to it. “Natural gas combines high
bringing in LNG. But the fracking boom truck, Amy Miller, the plant’s super- heating intensity and efficiency with low
led Cheniere to retrofit its facilities for visor for local government and com- emissions and virtually no pollution,”
export. From the highway bridge that munity affairs, who’s also a Cameron an executive from the International Gas
leads to Texas, the plant dwarfs the local, tells me the buildings are forti- Union, an advocacy group, said in a 2018
nearby fishing camps. It features five of fied against winds of 150 mph and the report. In some of the world’s poorest
the “trains” that liquefy and purify the cooling trains are elevated 18 feet in areas it replaces coal or can be used in
gas, with one more under construction, case of flooding. The site can also gen- lieu of cow manure or camel dung. India
and it has five storage tanks that could erate its own power if the local grid goes is set to almost double the length of
Bloomberg Businessweek
aid had arrived in New Orleans The amount destined for southwest Harvey, which didn’t significantly affect
10 days after Katrina and on the East Louisiana is $600 million, far short of other parts of Lake Charles. “The buy-
Coast 98 days after Sandy. The situ- the $3 billion the state government had out is the best of a bunch of imperfect
ation on the ground, he said, was “a estimated was needed. options,” Mayor Hunter says. He’s
humanitarian crisis.” Hunter responded on Facebook. “I pledged to fight to make sure the resi-
For weeks over the summer, the thank President Biden for his support. dents are offered fair market value.
Lake Charles Convention & Visitors Though the final numbers are woefully If everyone leaves, the plan is to
Bureau’s Visit Lake Charles website inadequate,” he wrote. They “represent remove all the impervious surfaces—
eschewed its usual colorful photos about 1/5 of what the state estimated our concrete slabs and structures—in the
of slot machines and kids holding up unmet need to be.” And that estimate, area to turn it into a drainage basin for
baby alligators. A time counter on the Hunter added, was from before the win- surrounding neighborhoods. In other
homepage ticked off the seconds, min- ter storm and May flood. words, the community is slated to
utes, hours, days “SINCE HURRICANE “Ultimately, we will do what we become marshland.
LAURA WITH NO SUPPLEMENTAL always do in SWLA. We will never give “This is not normal,” Diamond
FEDERAL DISASTER RELIEF FOR up,” he said. That elation again. Meche, a Terrace resident, tells me on
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.” But the hurricanes keep coming. her lunch break from her job at the
In the meantime, in Cameron, a “There’s a lot of fatigue,” says Andy Walmart across the freeway. The appli-
$32 million project got under way, seek- Patrick, the National Weather Service cation period for the program is only
ing to scoop 2.36 million cubic yards meteorologist responsible for Lake just beginning, and she and her par-
of sand out of the Gulf of Mexico and Charles. “It’s no surprise a lot of people ents don’t know how much they’ll get
plop it into what’s left of the marsh in just want to move away.” for their one-story brick home, but they
the name of coastal restoration. It’s a plan to take the buyout and join the exo-
Sisyphean way to approach nature, end- dus. The people who want to stay or
lessly lugging sand after each hurricane can’t afford to leave, she says, should
in preparation for the next one. expect more problems: “I wouldn’t
advise people here to buy furniture, 55
F
orecasters predicted that the to be on the safe side. And I would
2021 hurricane season would advise you to live out of Tupperwares.”
be major—with 13 to 20 tropical Meche still doesn’t know where her
storms, 6 to 10 of them hurricanes. Ida, family will go.
for one, delivered. In August, as radar Down in Cameron, Tressie Smith
showed its red and yellow pinwheel has converted Anchors Up into a food
spinning north through the Caribbean truck. “I realized that if I was gonna
toward Louisiana, I checked in on my stay here, I needed to be on wheels so I
people. Everyone was on edge. Social can pick up and go,” she says. The cost
media was lit up with expletive-laden of rebuilding to meet new local con-
posts and “NOT NOW, IDA” pleas. There struction rules that require everything
was a palpable sense that the region sim- to be up high made it too onerous to
ply didn’t have the fight left for another root down. The LNG facilities have kept
storm. Instead, Ida went toward New Smith in business. “I depend on that
↑ Smith outside Anchors Up
Orleans, sparing southwest Louisiana. lunch rush,” she says, stubbing out a
Local newspapers began pondering In Lake Charles’s Greinwich Terrace cigarette. “How else is someone sup-
whether it would help bring in fed- neighborhood, the mostly Black resi- posed to survive down here?”
eral assistance for their region at last, dents were given that option in May— She cusses, laughs, and ducks back
or steal away aid that might otherwise quit rebuilding and take a buyout. The into the truck as a facilities worker steps
have headed their way—a Louisiana-style community was identified for a vol- up to the window to order. He’s from
hunger games. untary program that’s operated by Seattle, living in a man camp and wear-
On Sept. 7, perhaps goaded by Ida, the Louisiana Watershed Initiative ing a work vest from one of the engi-
the White House asked Congress to fund and funded with federal money, after neering and construction companies
additional relief for southwest Louisiana. an engineering company found the building LNG facilities. While he waits
A few weeks later the Biden administra- neighborhood was guaranteed to flood for his shrimp basket, he looks around
tion said it was authorizing an increase during significant rain events. The res- at the piles of tree branches and flat-
in federal funding to the state for debris idents already knew this: It had hap- tened homes. “There’s nothing here,”
removal and unspecified “emergency pened three times in the past four years, he tells me, “but it’ll make you all the
protective measures” as a result of Laura. including in 2017 during Hurricane money you need.”
ich K i d
Bloomberg Businessweek
he R
T
Got a modest income but access
to lots and lots of cash? New York City
has an apartment ownership
program for you! Even if it wasn’t
meant for you at all
By Caleb Melby
56
d Next Do
October 11, 2021
or
57
T
he changes at the building The children of America’s wealthy receive. Dozens have been foreclosed
in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg are quietly sewing up deals like this on in recent years for unpaid taxes.
neighborhood began in 2009, in some of New York’s most desir- In short, because of inadequate rules,
when a guitar shop owner able neighborhoods, in buildings poor design, and decades of lax over-
whose father was a renowned art known as Housing Development Fund sight, these low-income tax subsidies
appraiser purchased a four-bedroom Corporation cooperatives, or HDFCs. are being scooped up by the well-to-do.
apartment. His mom lent him the These buildings were at one time in “They’re just gaming the system,” says
money. Then came a writer who bor- financial (and often physical) distress, Penny Gurstein, an expert on afford-
rowed from her mother, a psychologist. and many are still shunned by conven- able housing who directs the Housing
A movie production manager and her tional mortgage underwriters—hence Research Collaborative at the University
partner, a photo director, bought their the need for buyers to pay cash. Many of British Columbia. “This is now just
unit with a loan from her father, a physi- are no longer cheap, because the agree- being used as a playground for the rich.”
cian in Maryland. A flurry of additional ments that once limited resale prices Across the U.S., studies have shown
purchases without mortgages followed, have expired. But even at prices that that local property tax systems, which
including by a Shakespearean actress can crest well above $1 million, they’re raise more than $500 billion annually,
whose father lives in a terraced pent- discounted to the market, because of are deeply unfair, favoring the wealthy
house overlooking Central Park and a the income limit on buyers and the and systematically applying higher effec-
fashion designer whose father is a gyne- lack of available financing in some tive tax rates to lower-valued properties.
cologist in California. cases. And the taxes can be remarkably New York’s outcomes are among the
Similar colonies of young people with low. On South 2nd Street, the owners most unequal. But even in a system shot
creative sensibilities and well-off par- enjoy annual property tax discounts of through with inequalities, the exploita-
ents have taken root in Williamsburg for roughly 70%. tion of the HDFC program by affluent
years, but the gentrification of this par- The tax break was designed to be bargain hunters stands out.
ticular six-story building on South 2nd simple—too simple, as it turns out. HDFC sales are infrequent, and not
Street had a surprising set of enablers: The program sets a maximum taxable all of them go for big-dollar prices.
the taxpayers of New York. It’s one of value for every HDFC unit across the Nonetheless, it happens often enough
about 1,000 properties across the city city. This year it’s $11,079, in a market that the city’s Department of Housing
58 that receive a special property tax break where the median price for a home has Preservation and Development acknowl-
created to make homeownership afford- risen to $770,000. Because of this sys- edges that “strong reforms are needed.”
able for low-income people. The building tem, half the aggregate tax benefit will The agency made a run at that in 2016
had income restrictions, and these buy- go to the top 20% of eligible buildings but failed in the face of what a spokes-
ers met them. At the same time, they had by value. Struggling buildings in poorer man called “strong objections from many
access to a lot of cash, which they used areas, meanwhile, will get no benefit at HDFC co-ops and their elected represen-
to score their units at well below market all. Their values are too low for the tax tatives.” Since then, the most desirable
prices. Never mind their wealth or their break to have any effect, and because HDFC apartments, swept along by the
parents’; the tax break doesn’t require of their HDFC status, they don’t get an forces of the New York real estate mar-
any limit on assets or preclude gifts. abatement that most market-rate co-ops ket, have only drifted further beyond the
reach of the people they were set up for.
6-UNIT LOFT BUILDING,
A
CHELSEA n HDFC cooperative exists,
per New York state law,
SALES BUYERS “exclusively to develop a
$1.6m Former Purdue
Pharma executive housing project for persons
Cash, and a microbiologist of low income.” That doesn’t stop some
February 2021 HDFC buildings from advertising how
lax they are about enforcing income lim-
its. Bloomberg Businessweek found doz-
$1.8m Co-owner of a
bicycle equipment ens of listings dating to 2010 that failed
Cash, June 2018 company and a to mention income restrictions for the
writer and editor
building or plainly said there were none.
A four-bedroom unit at 238 W. 106th St.
was listed this year for $1.85 million
and advertised as having “no income
restrictions,” despite city records show-
TAX EXEMPTION PER UNIT ing it benefits from the exemption for
low- income housing. The building’s
$84k/year HDFC status lowered its taxable value
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
buildings keep it simpler—and perhaps Angeles, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and owners of some of New York’s most
DATA: NEW YORK CITY PROPERTY RECORDS; TAX RECORDS; LINKEDIN; CORPORATE AND PERSONAL WEBSITES; NEWS ACCOUNTS
get to a higher number—by using a per- other cities on purchasing documents. economically vulnerable people.
centage of the area median income, or In extreme cases, cash buyers have ties
I
AMI, for the New York metropolitan to the wealthy and powerful. A son of n 1970s New York, the economy
area. Buildings that are committed to British lord Simon Gavron bought an had collapsed, and slumlords had
low-income ownership might set the HDFC unit; a son of former Grumman stopped making repairs on their
limit at 80% of AMI, which matches the Corp. Chairman John Bierwirth did, too. buildings and paying property
city’s definition of low-income. But an Parents say HDFCs offer financial taxes. Eventually, officials seized the
HDFC can go as high as 165% of AMI. breathing room for creative children. properties, making city government
This year that translates to $137,940 for Jessica Nacheman says a one-bedroom one of the largest landlords in town. The
a single person and $196,845 for a fam- unit on the Upper West Side, purchased buildings remained in disrepair, and the
ily of four. last year for $410,000 in cash, “was really city couldn’t afford to fix them. Rather
For buildings with high prices and kind of a godsend” for her daughter, a than return them to unscrupulous slum-
tight income caps, gifting is just about 2015 Bryn Mawr graduate and harpist lords, city officials sold them to tenants,
the only way a qualified person can buy who needed her own place to avoid dis- typically for $250 per unit.
some of these apartments, especially if an turbing roommates with rehearsals. “She The buildings were organized as
all-cash deal is necessary. The upshot is had been able to put some money aside, cooperatives, then the dominant form
that a child of well-to-do parents is some- from gifts, etc., etc.,” says Nacheman, of apartment ownership in New York.
thing of a perfect buyer. who’s worked as a lawyer for a division But the co-op boards they formed
“They didn’t think about rich kids of Exxon Mobil Corp. and whose hus- often lacked the expertise to man-
with a trust fund but who make 30 grand band retired as a principal in an engi- age the buildings’ finances or upkeep.
a year working for a nonprofit,” says neering firm. “Now she can go forward Education programs offered by the city
Matt DeSilva, a real estate agent who with lower maintenance.” Maintenance and affiliated nonprofits received
mixed reviews. “The training was very year for $2.1 million) is taxed the same
threadbare,” says Glory Ann Kerstein, amount as a one-bedroom in the Bronx.
who’s lived in her HDFC unit since 1982. The tax break itself wasn’t made con-
Unpaid taxes, building code violations, tingent on keeping prices affordable.
and fines piled up. Some HDFC co-ops signed temporary
Faced with the awkward prospect of agreements with the city that included
seizing the very same properties again, price caps—tied to fixed schedules or
city officials came up with a solution complex formulas—but the agreements
in 1989: a 40-year tax break that would have been expiring over the years;
help the cooperatives dig out of debt. they’re now in effect at fewer than 25%
The benefit was structured as an of HDFC buildings, according to the
absolute cap on the taxable value of housing department. The agency says a
each HDFC unit, set at $3,500 in the small number of new cooperatives have
first year and climbing on a schedule. been formed with stricter rules around
That means a four-bedroom in Upper income and assets.
Manhattan (like the one that sold last The rise in prices is warping one
of the few shields against New York’s
50-UNIT BUILDING,
exploding housing costs. For work-
UPPER WEST SIDE
WHERE THE TAX BREAKS ARE ing people who made up the first gen-
Average discount on taxable value of HDFC
eration of owners, including Black, SALES BUYERS
apartments, by block Puerto Rican, and Dominican families,
0%-40% 40%-60% 60%-100% the buildings offered a chance at eco- $1.3m Engineer
H
nobody to call for repairs,” Baez recalls. DFC units can sell for 50%
Still, “it was a big improvement from or less of what a compara-
what we had in the Dominican Republic.” ble apartment might sell
It took more than a decade for the for, depending on factors
city to officially transfer the deed of like the financial and physical condi-
the complex to its residents, 66 units tion of the building. Because they are
for $16,500, in 2003. Over time the new often such bargains, cheating on appli-
owners pulled together to improve the cations for them does occur, brokers
property. Because the taxable value of say. “They’ll hand you a tax return that
the apartments fell below the HDFC they did on QuickBooks or Quicken
cap, the owners didn’t receive any tax or TurboTax,” says DeSilva, the guitar
relief until 2015—$230 per unit, while far dealer-turned-real estate agent. He’s
wealthier buildings were reaping mil- started asking for tax transcripts from
lions of dollars. Still, ownership offered the IRS.
tranquility and stability, and Baez and For many buildings, the city doesn’t
his siblings were able to attend college. monitor sales. That leaves agents and
Only a handful of apartments in the the cooperatives to catch dishonest buy-
complex have traded hands since the ers, but they have incentives to see high-
buildings became a cooperative, all for priced sales take place. Original owners
under $50,000. Baez would like to see from the 1980s and ’90s often experi-
his neighbors get more financial relief ence the biggest wealth-creation event
from the city, and he’s frustrated that of their lives when their unit goes for
he and they pay the same in tax as a high six-figure price; it’s the equiv-
DATA: NYC OPEN DATA owners of wealthier buildings. But he alent of a retirement account. The
Bloomberg Businessweek October 11, 2021
economic diversity. That will change. I our HDFCs and convert to normal co-ops, be amended to prevent the problem
think that’s inevitable.” if only to keep city government from from spreading across other buildings.
On the other side of the block, in a taking over our private homes,” John If the system is left unchanged, it isn’t
24-unit HDFC building, recent sales have McBride, a leader of the group, said in hard to envision a future in which gentri-
topped $1 million. Only three apart- an email. McBride and others question fication fans out across more and more
ments are still held by original own- whether city officials who set HDFCs in neighborhoods and their HDFC cooper-
ers. Thanks to the HDFC tax break, motion really intended to create a last- atives. Hardly a surprising outcome in
the entire property’s taxable value is ing low-income housing break. They New York real estate, where the logic of
$281,856. Bart Platteau, a Belgium-born say the larger policy goal was to trans- the market wins more often than not. At
jazz flutist who owns a unit in the build- fer hundreds of often stressed and dubi- least there’s a consolation prize: tidy nest
ing, says it doesn’t make sense for him ous buildings off the city’s books and eggs for exiting owners, as their homes
and his new neighbors to be receiving a into stable, private hands. If the original and city are cleared for the affluent.
P
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U
I
T
S 63
68
SECRET DISNEY Disney hacks 2.0
70
Will this electric truck
save the world?
parents just leave their children with Mansion. “I’d venture to say, if the
Mary Poppins and wander off,” says a 3. On Any Given Haunted Mansion is temporarily
former Character. Adults often embrace closed, it means someone tried to
their inner children at the parks rather Day, There’s a spread grandma’s ashes and we’ve
than watch their own. “It’s like, ‘Here, had to bio-vac the entire place,” a for-
stay with her, she’ll take care of you— Circle of Life mer cast member says. The ritual hap-
she’s a governess!’ ” Inevitably, Miss pens often—at least once a month.
Poppins has to stay Chim-Chim-cheery Aaron Crecraft, a guest experience And you thought the hologram ghosts
despite missing breaks to take her dis- manager at 2,416-room Coronado were spooky.
oriented wards to the Lost Child Center. Springs Resort at Walt Disney World,
Even more frequently, parents bully estimates that 75% of guests are visit-
their kids into taking photographs with ing the parks to celebrate a milestone, 4. You Don’t
villains, says a former Character. “I pay from baby gender reveals (will it be a
$20,000 for you to go to Catholic school Mickey or a Minnie?) to memorials. On Want to Be a
to not be afraid of the devil—now smile a day with official PhotoPass photogra-
for mommy!” one woman screamed at pher Tyhra Heintz, we spent 30-minute “Treasured
her petrified daughter in an attempt private sessions shooting graduations,
to make her pose with Narnia’s White quinceañeras with elaborate costume Guest”
Witch. (The child pulled down her changes, and engagements. Marriage
mother’s pants in protest.) proposals happen almost daily, and Sleepy, Grumpy, Dopey … they’re not just
If some adults behave like babies, some go wrong. “We shoot it anyway— the names of the Seven Dwarfs—they’re
others try to make them. “It happens it’s still something to remember!” also the prevailing attitudes among
on any attraction that’s dark enough Heintz’s assistant says. guests around 3 p.m. on any given day.
and slow enough for a little action,” a Weddings are where people pull “It’s hot, humid, everyone’s needing a
cast member says, amused that visitors out all the stops. The most elaborate sugar bump,” says Kenzie Palm, my skip-
are still surprised to learn that rides request, at the Four Seasons Orlando per trainer on the Jungle Cruise attrac- 65
have video cameras for safety purposes. at Walt Disney World Resort, involved tion, a favorite place to sit down and
Midride souvenir shots are rigorously a bride who was particularly fond of recharge. It’s also the holy grail of dad
screened to expunge any overly magi- Belle from Beauty and the Beast—she jokes, since the skippers also double as
cal moments. “I can’t believe I’m saying had the catering team learn the cho- comedians. (See that sandstone cliff ?
this,” says Kerstin Cote-Crosson, a for- reography to Be Our Guest so they “Don’t take it for granite!”)
mer attraction operator who’d watched could dance out like cancan-ing cut- A skipper’s job, in many ways, is
the cameras, “but I once had to kindly lery during meal service. to turn Grumpy and Sleepy back into
ask a young woman on Splash Mountain Even death finds room for cele- Timon and Pumbaa. “When someone
not to spit bodily fluids into the flume.” bration, particularly at the Haunted answers a business call or if a teen-
ager’s zoned out on TikTok, I usually
put in a joke request for them to order
me a pizza,” Palm says. Elsewhere
in the park, complaints range from
the mundane (“My kid dropped her
Dole Whip soft serve!”) to the insane
(“Where’s the dome over the park for
when it rains?”).
Those who ac t like wicked
stepsisters—and get passed between
cast members to resolve trivial gripes—
are called “treasured guests,” as in, staff
want to bury them like Jack Sparrow’s
booty. Screamers get cajoled into a fur-
nished “quiet room” off Main Street
or, worse, taken to security backstage
to await municipal authorities. (While
its movies include plenty of whimsical
prisons—Rapunzel’s tower, Quasimodo’s
belfry—Disney doesn’t have a jail.)
SECRET DISNEY Bloomberg Pursuits October 11, 2021
SECRET DISNEY
At Walt Disney World, the kids can’t hug Mickey and Minnie third quarter of 2021, Disney’s theme park division turned a
these days. Instead, because of the ongoing pandemic, they profit for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Chief
wave to them on parade floats and balconies. One water Executive Officer Bob Chapek says the parks are welcoming
park, Typhoon Lagoon, has yet to reopen, along with attrac- the maximum number of visitors allowed by capacity restric-
tions such as Disney’s Festival of Fantasy parade and a half- tions. That demand is only set to rise further, now that Disney
dozen shows. Even the way you wait in line—or skip it—will World kicked off an 18-month celebration of its 50th anniver-
evolve this fall, as FastPass+ is being phased out in favor of a sary on Oct. 1. VIP offerings are therefore harder to procure
paid digital system called Disney Genie+ for expediting entry than ever. If you’re planning your visit with an eye to luxury,
at popular rides. here are some workarounds to ensure you can still cut lines
None of this has stopped the crowds from returning. In the and greet princesses, without a hitch.
68
WANNA HANG WITH GOOFY? TRYING TO PLAN ONE AVOIDING LONG WAITS?
NICE MEAL TOGETHER?
Head to the Get a line-cutting
Bypass the classic
Four Seasons concierge
restaurants
Your best chance at meeting a favorite Private VIP tours that whisk guests
character won’t be in the park. It’s There are plenty of places to have directly onto rides with the help of a
at Ravello, the airy first-floor Italian a knockout meal at Walt Disney knowledgeable guide are a mainstay
restaurant at the Four Seasons World: Takumi-Tei’s omakase menu among well-heeled travelers. And for
Resort Orlando, located right outside in Epcot’s Japan Pavilion and gas- good reason: For about $4,500 these
the Magic Kingdom’s gates but within tronomic crown jewel Victoria & experts play fixer for the day, handling
the Walt Disney World Resort complex. Albert’s at the Grand Floridian Resort every detail from chauffeured transpor-
For its prix fixe Good Morning Breakfasts & Spa come to mind. But they and tation (along out-of-sight routes) between
every Thursday and Saturday, the spot is others have remained closed in the parks to securing viewing spots for fire-
staffed by friendly servers bearing bagels 14 months since the parks reopened. works shows such as Harmonious, a
with house-smoked salmon. Mickey Thankfully, notable newcomers new multilingual spectacle at Epcot.
and Minnie’s crew are also there stroll- include Topolino’s Terrace, which No surprise, they’re very much in
ing through to offer socially distanced serves fresh seafood and pastas at the demand amid Covid-19. Reservations
photo ops for each family. (Brunch is $48 Riviera Resort, and Steakhouse 71, must be made by phone (407 560-4033),
for adults, $28 for children; reservations which mixes a traditionally indul- starting 60 days before arrival; set a
are required.) It’s a better choice than gent menu with a family-friendly reminder to book as soon as slots open
the character meals at Disney’s half- atmosphere at the Contemporary at 9 a.m. local time, or you may wind up
dozen official venues, which offer more Resort. California Grill, sitting atop with a gourd instead of a golden carriage.
basic breakfast fare. Can’t snag a res- that iconic A-frame building, is also There’s one other back channel to
ervation? The hotel can arrange a pri- reinventing dishes from its first menu— getting in-park assistance. Although
vate meet-and-greet event, which runs such as duck à l’orange pizza—for a Disney hotels don’t offer traditional
about $7,500. 50th anniversary throwback. concierges, guests in certain room
TRAVEL Bloomberg Pursuits October 11, 2021
LOOKING TO BE
CHAUFFEURED?
Think outside
the bus
C ommunal buses, though not 69
glamorous, have long been the most
seamless form of Disney transporta-
tion. But the red-polka-dotted “Minnie
Vans” that used to privately take fam- Breakfast at the
ilies to the parks, hotels, and even the Four Seasons Orlando
is your best chance
airport haven’t yet returned. What’s at meeting Goofy
more, Disney’s Magical Express compli-
mentary airport shuttle is being phased
out in early 2022. NOT FEELING LIKE OR JUST ITCHING TO STAY IN
If you’re driving yourself, opt for CINDERELLA? AND ORDER ROOM SERVICE?
preferred parking, which shortcuts
the long walk to the front gate. Costing Get a makeover Turn to local apps
$45 to $50 a day—about $20 more than
standard parking—it will smooth out the Bibbidi Bobbidi Boutique is Disney’s Disney’s resorts don’t contain any
hectic early-morning and late-evening most iconic kids’ salon (yes, that’s a minibars, and because of ongoing
rush. Ride-sharing apps such as Lyft thing), with three locations that trans- pandemic protocols, the only one
and Uber are also an option; they have form the 3-to-12 set into princesses and currently offering room service is the
clear pickup points in convenient spots, knights. While they remain closed, a Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, so
with rides between hotels and parks handful of professionals—“fairy god- plan ahead for any post-park hunger
usually topping out around $15. mothers,” as the insiders call them— if you’re staying on property. Food
That said, eliminating the airport bus have sprung up to fill the void. My delivery apps aren’t the best solution,
is likely to spur demand for these apps Magical Makeover, Have Wand and either: They’ve been known to show
come January—making local black-car Will Travel, and Sharon Judy can listings from inaccessible park restau-
outfits such as Mears Luxe a valuable give young ones a Disney-inspired rants, resulting in orders that dis-
COURTESY FOUR SEASONS
addition to your contact list (you can look in the comfort of your hotel appear at the last minute, which no
dial 407 422-2222 or download the app). room (starting at around $100), and parent of hungry kids wants to face.
Whichever option you choose, remem- Your Fairy Godmother’s ornate But three reliable (and good) options
ber those comfy shoes: You’re still going dress rentals ($60 to $130) make for are Earl of Sandwich, Chicken Guy!,
to clock your 10,000 daily steps. picture-perfect memories. and D-Luxe Burger.
CRITIC Bloomberg Pursuits October 11, 2021
plenty of power for hauling—more than the Ford F-150 and its
peers—but towing rapidly drains the battery. The bed is more
than a foot shorter than that of the F-150, too. Moreover, its
stiff, not-very-adjustable seats lack the comfort of the premium
work rigs that double as offices for contractors on the move.
After nine hours of driving, my neck and shoulders felt as if
they’d been wedged into the rear row on a trans-Atlantic flight.
Nonetheless, clever tools are hidden about. An 11.6-cubic-
foot gear tunnel runs the width of the truck without eating
into rear-seat legroom, and there’s an additional 14.3-cu.-ft.
space under the truck, plus an 11-cu.-ft. front trunk unlocked
via key fob, button, or the Rivian app. A cargo net helps hold
loose items, and lights inside illuminate automatically. A
12-volt outlet runs power from its deep recess. It feels like a
fisherman’s tacklebox—everything has its place.
The removable Bluetooth speaker doubled as a lantern as
we ate tacos off the camp kitchen. The driver’s-side door holds
vs. the Hype The R1T proved capable enough crawling over gullies and
up hard-packed inclines, with almost 15 inches of clearance
and an onboard air compressor for adjusting off-road tire
pressure on the fly. I loved the shape and feel of the steering
The Rivian R1T promises to save the wheel and the craftsmanship of the natural-grain ash-wood
trim along the doors and dashboard. These fit-and-finish ele-
70 world and change the way Americans ments are better than what Tesla Inc. has given us so far.
drive. Is it really that good? But those seductions come at a cost: The $73,000 starting
By Hannah Elliott price of the R1T soars above Ford’s coming F-150 Lightning
electric pickup, which will start at less than $40,000. And let’s
remember: The R1T isn’t a workhorse.
On Sept. 22 I started test-driving a forest-green R1T pickup Rivian (like all electric vehicle companies) still lacks a conve-
from Rivian Automotive LLC, an electric-car maker based in nient charging network, instead relying on existing Combined
Plymouth, Mich., that anticipates an $80 billion initial public Charging System stations. Although I experienced no range
offering this fall. Over three days, I crossed the Continental anxiety during my drive, and in fact the truck gained energy
Divide on paved switchbacks and scaled dusty peaks near a through regenerative braking down steep grades, towing
family of fluffy mountain goats. I drove 200 highway miles another vehicle would’ve depleted range by as much as 50%.
round trip between Denver and Breckenridge, Colo., and Larger 22-inch wheels drop the 314-mile maximum by 15%.
can attest that the R1T is quick. Its 800-plus horsepower Most troubling, the truck lacked the ability to monitor bat-
and 900 pound-feet of torque from four electric motors eas- tery life in real time. (There’s no Apple CarPlay or Android
ily pushed it to 100 mph; its three-second reported sprint connectivity, either.)
time certainly felt legit. “Not yet” was the refrain from Rivian engineers when asked
The people who make this truck, led by Rivian founder and about those capabilities. “These are preproduction models,”
Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe, are campers at heart, and employees assured me when the rubber lining inside my win-
their truck feels as if they took notes over many backcountry dows jammed, preventing them from rolling up. And when
climbing and biking trips, and then made a vehicle. The $5,000 the windshield wipers in the Rivian truck ahead of me went
two-burner camp kitchen option cooks a mean meal. on the fritz, erratically jerking. The trucks that customers get
But there are some significant red flags. The discerning won’t have any of these pesky glitches, they promised.
consumer would do well to pause to consider them before Even if the R1T does prove rugged and reliable, Rivian has
making a blind—and I do mean “blind,” as sales are restricted only four service centers currently for the entire U.S.—Tesla has
to online—purchase. almost 200. Truck repairs will eventually be done via “mobile”
Laden with vegan-leather seats and an all-glass panoramic repairmen, which sounds to me like waiting for the cable guy.
COURTESY RIVIAN
roof, the R1T is no workhorse. Its front end won’t sustain a For the core of America’s truck-loving customers who love day-
snowplow, and its 16-inch center touchscreen shouldn’t get to-day utility perhaps more than camping glory and climate
wet and won’t respond to input from gloved fingers. It has friendliness, that’s a tough appointment to risk.
THE ONE Bloomberg Pursuits October 11, 2021
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Three Challenges to
Central Bank Autonomy
By Daniel Moss
Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro signed a bill into law ear- higher inflation in the short term—provided it settles to
lier this year that formalized autonomy. The Central Bank within their targets. But as three important emerging econ-
of Brazil has taken the freedom to heart, raising rates dra- omies have indicated, there is a risk that independence is
matically in a bid to crush inflation. It comes at a cost, only for the good times. Yet it might be the really tough
however; gross domestic product shrank in the second days when it is needed most. —Moss is a columnist for
quarter. Bolsonaro has denied an Associated Press report Bloomberg Opinion