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Ijae 247
Ijae 247
Ijae 247
lisTIRODUCTION
alternative market
Helmberger(1964) made a theoretical analysis of co-operative marketing under
es in the determination
set-up and the interaction between the co-operatives and the private enterpris
dimensio n of market structure
of market performance. Recognition of co-operative enterprise as a
y worth analysing . Sexton
gives rise to a myriad of possible structural cases that are potentiall
will have a pre-competi tive
(1990), on the other hand, argues that the presence of a co-operative
'yardstic k of competiti ve effect'.
effect on the behaviour of other private firms, which he calls as the
effect depends on factors
He opines that the existence and the magnitude of the pre-competitive
ive membersh ip, pricing policy
such as the competitive relations among the other firms, co-operat
nd, the paper makes an attempt to
and the quantity handled by the co-operative. In this backgrou
arecanut market and on the growth and
analyse the impacts of the CAMPCO Ltd. on the structure of
structure is interprete d to mean all those
stability in the prices of arecanut in Karnataka. Market
to influence the composit ion, competi-
characteristics of the organisation of the market that seem
of the market was
tiveness and nature of pricing within the market(Bhide et al., 1981). The structure
concentra tion and o on.
studied indirectly through the behaviour of arrivals, prices,
II
in the country,
The Mangalore market, one of the major and oldest arecanut marketing centres
market handles almost 35 per cent of the total productio n in the
is considered for the study. This
direct purchase of arecanut mainly through the South Kanara
state. The CAMPCO Ltd. makes
Marketin g Society (SKACM S), another commissi on agent marketing
Agriculturists' Co-operative
the market take
co-operative society operating in Mangalore. Nearly 25 per cent of the total sales in
. Open auction, tender and open agreemen t systems are the main features
place through the SKACMS
main types of arecanut which come to Mangalor e market are choll, new supari
in the market. The
and koka.
below:
The data and analytical techniques employed in the study are briefly described
monthly data on
1. To study the impact of CAMPCO on the competitiveness in the market,
their share in the
arrival, prices and sale of arecanut along with the market intermediaries and
is used to measure the
SKACMS for the year 1993-94 are considered. The Hirschman's index (HI)
concentration in the market.
n of a more
The values of HI would vary between 0 and 1; a value nearer to zero is an indicatio
equal purchasing pattern by the different categories of market intermediaries.
of arecanut
2. To study the presence of CAMPCO and its intervention effects on the growth
PCO decade (1964 to 1973),
prices, the analysis of data is done covering three periods: pre-CAM
AGRICULTURAL MARKETING: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 335
CAMPCO decade(1974 to 1983)and CAMPCO consolidation deca& (1984 to 1994). The growth
in the arrival and prices (both nominal and real) is analysed separately with the help of exponential
growth function of the form;Y = ab,Y = abt, where Y = the variable under study, a = constant, b =
regression coefficient, t= time(years or months).The 'b' value in the above function is used to derive
the compound growth rate(r)as r =(b-1)X 100. Annual 'real' price series was estimated by dividing
the nominal prices with the annual 'All India whole price index numbers'. For the analysis of
stability or otherwise in the economy, two measures of variability, namely, the standard deviation
(SD)and the coefficient of variation(cV)in the price series are used.
3. To study the impact of CAMPCO on structural change in arecanut prices, 30 years monthly
average prices of arecanut from 1964 is used. A change in the structure of prices is determined based
on a change in its direction due to time. Structural change is measured through a change in the.'b'
coefficient of the trend equation. To capture the change in the parameters and thus in the structure of
the market series, dummy variable technique has been used to capture the difference in growth
during different periods (decades). The dummy variable technique segregates the prices into three
periods, for which two dummy- variables for slope and two for intercept have been included. The
form of the model is:
Y = a + b,t + b2D1 + b3D2 + t Di + bst Dr where
Y is the series (average price/qtl) under study, t is trend (months 1, 2, 3, ..., n) variable.
D,is the dummy variable for intercept, as 1 = CAMPCO decade,0= otherwise.
D2 is another dummy variable for intercept, as 1 = CAMPCO consdlidation decade,0 = other-
wise.
t D,is dummy variable for slope during the CAMPCO decade, which is obtained by multiplying
the trend variable with the dummy variable Di.
t D2 is dummy variable for the slope for CAMPCO consolidation decade, which is obtained by
multiplying the trend variable with dummy variable D2.
The growth function for the three periods derived from the above function are as follows:
Pre-CAMPCO period:Y= a + bit
CAMPCO decade:Y=(a + b2)+(bi + b4)t
CAMPCO consolidation decade: Y=(a + b3)+(bi + b5)t
4. To study the possible type of relationship that may exist between CAMPCO's procurement
and market price of arecanut, one year daily data from May 1993 .to March 1994 was.used. The
proposed methodology is to estimate whether 'leader-follower' relationship between CAMPCO
price/quantity and market prices of arecanut exists by using the concept of 'Granger casualty'
(Granger 1969). The ARIMA model as developed by Box and Jenkin (1970) is used to 'filter' the
series to remove and make the series free from all the 'explainable variations' like trend, cycle and
seasonal Components. Three types of relationships were identified, viz., causation, price leadership
and independence.
5. Multiple regression model of the following type is employed to study the magnitude and
direction of the impacts of CAMPCO's procurement price as well as quantity and other factors on the
market prices of arecanut.
Y = a + biX,+ b2X2 + b3X3 + + bnXn, where Y is independent variable, i.e., market price of
arecanut,
336 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
III
Months Total of
Sr. No.Particulars Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1994
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)
NIJ2NJVLJ IVIlfIllf1D1110V
1. Arrivals(qt1) 28966 28648 31039 29775 25584 21849 21903 14510 18826 15357 13490 18061 268008
2. • %to annual arrival 10.81 10.69 -11.58 11.11 9.55 8.15 8.17 5.41 7.02 5.73 5.03 6.75 100
3. Price(Rs./qt1) 6122 5696 5938 5758 5556 5376 5092 7378 6078 6418 6018 6052 5957
4. Sales at 5283 7045 5792 10163 6317 5784 3518 3489 3534 3591 3280 3255 61051
SKACMS (qt1)
5. Per cent of sales
to arrivals 18.24 24.60 18.66 34.13 24.70 26.47 16.10 24.04 18.80 23.38 24.31 18.02 22.78
6. Purchase by 935 1080 1398 1775 883 889 406 96 200 403 701 701 9467
CAMPCO (qtl)
Pre-CAMPCO (1964-73)
I. Nominal 629 -0.63 87.15 13.86
II. Real 403 -6.88* 97.55 24.21
CAMPCO (1974-83)
I. Nominal 1,097 10.15* 346.48 31.58
II. Real 273 2.93** 33.14 12.12
Consolidation(1984-94)
I. Nominal 3,663 15.38* 1,871.24 51.10
II. Real 393 5.76*** 110.57 28.14
market. This was further increased during the CAMPCO consolidation decade. The increase in the
price was at the rate of Rs.9.39 per quintal per month during CAMPCO establishment decade which
rose sharply to Rs.47.19 per quintal per month during the consolidation decade. The 'b' coefficients
were highly significant and R2 values were also very high, indicating the adequacy of the models
fitted. These results have further reinforced the previous findings that the CAMPCO's market inter-
vention measures had a positive impact with a structural change on arecanut prices in Karnataka.
To study the possible type of relationship that may exist between CAMPCO's procurement and
market price of arecanut, one year daily data from May 1993 to April 1994 related to sales at
SKACMS were used. The proposed methodology is to estimate whether leader-follower relationship
between CAMPCO price/quantity and market prices of arecanut exists by employing ARIMA filter-
ing process and 'Granger casualty' test. The model fitted in this respect and the results are presented
below:
340 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Some indications about the impact of CAMPCO's procurement on the market competitiveness
and prices of arecanut are given in the previous sections. In this section an attempt is made to
empirically measure the magnitude and direction of the impact of the above-mentioned factors on
the market prices of arecanut. For this purpose,daily market price of arecanut is taken as a dependent
variable and CAMPCO purchase price and quantity are taken as two major explanatory variables. In
addition, the number of traders, and the quantity handled per trader which represent the market
structure are also considered as other independent variables. Several models were tried to explain
the market prices of arecanut, and the results of the model which performed reasonably well are
reported in Table 3.
R'= 0.38
No. of observations = 192
* Significant at 1 per cent level.
The result confirms the positive impact of CAMPCO on arecanut market in Karnataka. The
CAMPCO's price lagged by one day has a significant and positive impact on the market prices of
arecanut at SKACMS,Mangalore. Every 100 rupees increase per quintal of arecanut in the purchase
price of CAMPCO on the previous day resulted in an increase of Rs. 9 in the market arecanut price
of the day. As noted in the previous section, the presence of a mutual feedback relationship between
the CAMPCO and other private traders and the leadership role played by CAMPCO in setting the
342 INDIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Iv
CONCWSIONS
could
Though the CAMPCO was not a dominant buyer in Mangalore market, its purchase
in the market. The presence and performa nce of CAMPCO could
induce a degree of competitiveness
e action' on the
prevent the concentration of buying among few dominant traders and any 'collusiv
number of
part of the market intermediaries. As per Lele (1971) and Bhide et al.(1981) the large
cent of the total registered traders in Mangalor e market) operating at
buyers (nearly 100 or 15 per
number of small and
SKACMS ruled out the possibility of any such collusive action. Similarly, large
the market (who purchase less than 20 bags per day and form nearly 42 per
medium purchasers in
market. Thus the co-
cent of the total buyers) reflects the condition of easy and free entry into the
competitive market. In
operative arecanut marketing system has fulfilled another vital feature.of a
a significant and positive
addition, it emerged as a 'leader' in the market and in turn could exercise
AGRICULTURAL MARKETING:ISSUES AND CHALLENGES 343
impact on the'market prices. These results throw some evidence for Sexton's(1990)'pre-competitive
effects' ofCAMPCO in mitigating the potentially adverse implications of structural 'oligopsony' by
competing private purchasers.
The CAMPCO's performance in the market had a positive impact even in 'real' terms on the
prices of arecanut. This has resulted in higher incomes to the arecanut growers of Karnataka. In
addition, the CAMPCO could induce a structural change with an acceleration in the monthly prices
of arecanut. The CAMPCO's price influencing mechanism was effective in this regard compared to
its intervention through procurement quantity. In this respect the CAMPCO has to execute its
'procurement policy very carefully; it is like using a double edged knife. As an enterprise it has to
make sufficient transactions so as to run the business efficiently. While doing so, it is supposed to
give remunerative price and a fair deal to the grower members. On the other hand, as an integral part
of the entire marketing system, it has the responsibility to ensure the stability of the arecanut
economy. For this purpose, it has to intervene and influence the market through its procurement
programmes so as to assure high and stable prices of arecanut in the market. Again, here, it has to
make purchases in such a way that it should not have an unfavourable impact on the market prices
of arecanut.
The CAMPCO's procurement and market intervention, however, did not achieve significant
long-term stability in the economy. Arecanut prices witnessed high year-to-year fluctuations during
the post-CAMPCO period compared to he pre-CAMPCO period in the Mangalore market. This
highlight§ that growth and instability are not mutually exclusive in the arecanut economy of
Karnataka. The CAMPCO's procurement programmes,in this respect, should be aimed at moderat-
ing the annual fluctuations in the prices of arecanut and provide the 'inter-seasonal' stability in the
market. Stabilising the production of arecanut helps to achieve this objective to some extent. In
addition, provision of market intelligence services, long-term price trends and future projection of
the prices, supply and demand for arecanut on a regular basis will assist the growers to take appropri-
ate decisions regarding the stock, disposal of arecanut, new planting, expansion of area under
arecanut and so on. The CAMPCO can establish a separate market information cell, and bring out
periodicals to disseminate production as well as marketing information to the arecanut growers in,
Karnataka.
REFERENCES
Bhide, S.; A. Chowdhury, E.O. Heady and M.A. Muralidharan (1981), "Structural Changes in an Agricultural
Assembling Market: A Case Study of Arecanut (Betelnut) Market in Mangalore, Karnataka State." Indian
Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 36, No. 2, April-June, pp. 25-43.
Box, George E.P. and Gwilym M. Jenkins (1970), Tinze Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San
Franscisco.
Granger, C.W.J. (1969), "Investigating Causal Relationship by Econometric Models and Spectral Methods,
Econonzetrica, Vol. 37, pp. 424-438.
Helmberger, PG. (1964), "Co-operative Enterprise as a Structural Dimension of Farm Market", Journal of Farm
Economics, Vol. 46, No. 3, August, pp. 603-617.
Lele U.J. (1971), Foodgrain Marketing in India - Private Petformance and Public Policy, Popular Prakasan. New
Delhi.
Sexton. R.J. (1990), "Imperfect Competition in Agricultural Markets and the Role of Co-operatives: A Spatial
Analysis". American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 72, No. 3, August, pp. 709-720.