Module: Introduction To Demography

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University of Rwanda
College of Business and Economics
School of Economics
Year I. Economics and Applied Statistics
Module: INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY
===== Hand Book =====
Prepared by:
Dr Dieudonne N. MUHOZA
Demographer,
Senior Lecturer
Academic Year 2019 – 2020

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I. WORLD POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

1.1 How the world Population is distributed?
The Earth contains over 7.2 billion people. But these seven billion are not evenly spread over the
world's habitable surface. Many factors contribute to the geography spread of populations around
the globe, such as climate, terrain and topography, physical and political boundaries, and more.
However, broad general patterns of populations on Earth can still be understood.

Step 1: Two-thirds of Earth's population lives within the mid latitudes, and almost 90 percent of
the world's population lives north of the equator.
Step 2: Around 90% of the world's population is concentrated on only 20% of the land surface.
Therefore, a large majority of Earth's inhabitants live on a small portion of Earth's total
habitable land area.
Step 3: Three major population centers around the world include: East Asia (China, the Koreas,
and Japan); South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh); and Europe (Western, Eastern,
and Southern Europe). In fact, two countries each contain over one billion people: China
and India. Each major world region contained the following percentage of the Earth's total
population in 2014: Africa (14 %), Asia (60%), Europe (12%), Latin America and the
Caribbean (8.5 %), North America (5 %), Oceania (0.5 %).
Step 4: While low-lying areas are more preferable for the locations of settlements, still a large
portion of the Earth remains quite uninhabited. The sparsely population regions include
northern and western North-America, northern and central Asia, and interior South
America, interior Africa, and the interior of Australia.
Step 5: Cities and urban regions have seen dramatic increases in population over the last fifty
years, with much growth continuing at present and into the future. Currently the Earth's
urban population is estimated to be around 3.8 billion people.
1.2. Trends in World Population Distribution
Table below illustrates how the developed world is losing its weight. In 1950, the five first
countries were totalizing 53% of the world population while their areas represented 29% of the
total world areas. In 2013, the corresponding figures were 49% and 21%. The projections indicate
that in 2050, the five first populated countries will have 46% of the world population on a total
area of only 16%.
Overtime, the more developed countries are losing their ranks which are taken by the less
developed. In 2013, only 4 developed countries are included in the 20 first populated countries.
In 2050, only USA will be among the top 20, seven will be Africans.
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Table 2. Twenty most populated countries in 1950, 2013, 2050
1. China 563 1. China 1357 1. India 165

2. India 370 2. India 1277 2. China 131
3. Russia 180 3. USA 316 3. Nigeria 440
4. USA 132 4. Indonesia 249 4. USA 400
5. Japan 84 5. Brazil 196 5. Indonesia 366
6. Indonesia 83 6. Pakistan 191 6. Pakistan 363
7. Germany 68 7. Nigeria 174 7. Brazil 227
8. Brazil 53 8. Bangladesh 157 8. Bangladesh 202
9. U. K 50 9. Russia 143 9. RDC 182
10. Italy 46 10. Japan 127 10. Ethiopia 178
11. Bangladesh 46 11. Mexico 118 11. Philippines 152
12. France 41 12. Philippines 96 12. Mexico 150
13. Pakistan 39 13. Viet Nam 90 13. Russia 132
14. Nigeria 32 14. Ethiopia 89 14. Tanzania 129
15. Mexico 29 15. Egypt 85 15. Egypt 126
16. Spain 28 16. Germany 81 16. Uganda 114
17. Viet Nam 26 17. Iran 77 17. Viet Nam 109
18. Poland 25 18. Turkey 76 18. Iran 99
19. Ethiopia 22 19. RD. Congo 71 19. Japan 97
20. Egypt 21 20. Thailand 6620. 20. Kenya 97
1.3. Brief overview on the World Population Growth
The historical Estimates of the World Population set the human population to about 4 million on
the eve of the agricultural Revolution. The main living activity was hunting and gathering and the
population was mainly nomad. The Homo sapiens became sedentary with the agricultural
Revolution and began to grow more noticeably. For example, between “8 000 BC to 5 000 BC”,
about 372 people on average were being added to the world‟s total population each year. By 500
BC, major civilizations were established in China and Greece and 139 000 new people were being
added to the world population each year. By the time of Jesus Christ (1 A.D- the Roman Period),
more than 200 million people lived on the planet and were increasing by more than 300 000
people every year. In the middle of the 18thcentury, the growth increased to 2.6 million every year
as an effect of industrial revolution and reached 1 billion.
Table 3: Evolution of world population (in billion)
Year 1800 1925 1960 1974 1987 1998 2012 2027 2051
Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
During most of human history, population increased very slowly. It historically took hundreds of
thousands of years for world population to reach 1 Perspective billion, in about 1800. At that point,
growth began to accelerate as death rates fell. World population reached 2 billion 130 years later,
around 1930. It passed the 3 billion mark in 1960 and reached 4 billion only 15 years later, in 1975.
World population reached 5 billion in 1987, and it will reach 6 billion in 1999 and 7 billions in
2014.
The characteristics of population growth during the 20th century are unique in world history. At
the beginning of this century, the world had fewer than 2 billion people, and at the end it has
reached 6 billion people. Over 80 percent of the world‟s people are living in developing countries.
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Today, the world population is more than 7 billion. Though information about African population
was only available with colonial power censuses for political objective, estimations show that its
(African population) progression followed the same route as other continents‟ populations. Even if
high mortality and fertility is still observable in some African countries, the growth of the
population was very slow at the beginning and increased with the introduction of modern
medication and nutrition, technology and so on. The global demographic transition curve shows a
slight decrease of the world population. In developed countries, the growth of the population
decreased significantly as an outcome of modernisation (economic development, new social
cultural values). In less developed countries, the demographic Transition has not yet reached its
peak and still a high birth rate is prevalent even if those countries have already reached a
population momentum.
In year 2000, sub-Saharan Africa rebounded in population size, reaching 10% of the world
population. The population of this region is projected to 16.8% of the world population in the year
2050, more than twice as many people as are projected to be in Europe in the same year.
More recently in the 20th century, data have showed that the world population growth result
mainly from the developing countries and that the share of those countries is increasing (table
below).
Table 4: World population growth (past and future estimations)
Period Annual increase Share (in %) of developing Population growth

(en 106) in the increase rate (in %)
1950-1955 47 79 1,78
1970-1975 76 89 1,96
1990-1995 86 95 1,57
2000-2005 87 97 1,37
2015-2020 84 98 1,09
2025-2030 69 100 0,78
During the whole second half of the 20th century, the population increase come from mainly or
exclusively the developing countries. The population increase rate has started declining since the
1960ies. However, the contrasts between regions or countries remain striking. The difference
between more developed countries (1 per thousand) and the least developed ones (25 per
thousand) is 25 times. The natural increase is higher in Africa (2.6%) and lower (0%) in Europe.
Asia and Latino-America occupy an intermediate position. The main factor that makes a
difference in population increase in fertility (births). Note that the population growth is negative
in some developed countries: fertility is low while mortality is relative high due to a great
proportion of older people in the population that has a high risk of death.
Table 5: Evolution of the world population by region, 1900 to 2050

Region 1900 1950 2000 2050
Africa 8,1 8,9 13,5 21,8
Latino America 4,5 6,6 5,0 8,5
North América 5.0 6,6 8,5 3,9
Asia 57,4 55,6 60,7 58,4
Europe 24,6 21,8 11,8 6,9
Oceania 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5
Developed countries 29,6 28,4 20,3 10,8
Developing countries 70,4 71,6 79,7 89,2
Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0
Population (x10 ) 6 1.650 2.520 6.168 9.857
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This table above shows that at the beginning of the 20th century, Asia was populated with nearly
60% of the total world population, Europe one person out 4. In total, 8 out 10 people were Asians
or Europeans. Until 1950, the distribution of 1900 has not much changed.
However, around 2000, Europe has lost more than half of its share of 1900. Africa by contrast has
so much increased. In 2050, projections indicate that Asia will maintain his place (nearly 60%),
and Africa will be the second with 22% while Europe would fall to 7%.
Table 6. Disparities in the World Population Growth

Region 2013
Births Deaths Nat. increase
Rate (%)
World 20 8 1.2
More developed 11 10 0.1
Less developed (- China) 25 7 1.7
Least developed 34 10 2.5
Africa 37 11 2.6
Sub-saharan Africa 39 12 2.7
Northern Africa 26 6 2.0
Rwanda 36 8 2.9
Europe 11 11 0.0
Latino America 19 6 1.3
North America 12 8 0.4
Asia 18 7 1.1
Asia (-China) 21 7 1.4
China 12 7 0.5
India 22 7 1.5
Afghanistan 37 8 2.8
Japan 8 10 -0.2
Oceania 18 7 1.1
Table 7. Some indices of Population Age structure in 2013
Country or region Median Young index Old index (65 Dependence

age (under 15 year) years +) Ratio1
Germany 36,3 13 21 49,3
Mexico 20,0 30 6 70,3
Chili 25,3 22 10 57,7
Morocco 19,4 30 6 78,9
Senegal 17,2 44 3 93,8
China 25,4 16 9 49,3
Europe 34,9 16 16 49,7
SS Africa 17,4 43 3 92,3
Developed countries 33,6 16 17 50,2

Developing countries 22,0 41 3 66,7
Total 24,2 26 8.0 62,6
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Dependence ratio is the report of under 15 years and 65 years + on the population aged 15-64 years.
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II. POPULATION GROWTH

2.1. Demographic Balancing Equation
Vital statistics on births and deaths, together with census data on population totals, are the basic
data needed for studying the demographic transition, and comparing trends through time. The
difference between the numbers of births and deaths comprises the population natural increase.
Where migration has little impact on population numbers, natural increase accounts for overall
population growth or decline. Thus, the two components of population growth or decline are
natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, and net migration, the excess or arrivals over
departures.
The demographic balancing equation expresses this as follows:
Population growth = natural increase plus net migration
Or Population growth = (births – deaths + (arrivals – departures)
As the population growth is the difference between population totals at two dates, the
balancing equation can be written:
(Pt - Po) = (births – deaths) + (arrivals-departures) and Pt can be expressed as
Pt = Po + (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)
When analyzing population changes, an important strategy is to discuss the components of growth,
since these show the sources of gains and losses, which in turn can suggest possible explanations of
trends. Changes in population numbers are always the outcome of natural increase and net
migration. Natural increase and net migration are the processes immediately responsible for
change, whereas social, economic, political or environmental factors are the underlying causes of
change.
The demographic balancing equation refers to changes in total numbers, rather than changes in
growth rates. Total numbers are important in themselves because planning for the provision of
goods and services depends substantially on the number of customers or service users. However, to
compare populations in different times and places, other measures-such as rates and percentages-
are needed to show the relative pace, or relative size, of changes in different population totals.
2.2 Population growth rate, doubling time and required time between two
population sizes
The population growth rate noted “r” is the number of increased individuals per individual (or
100 people). It is calculated as follows:
r = Pt+1 – Pt
(Pt+1 + Pt) * 1/2
r = (b - d) + (i - e) Where b, d, i and e are respectively crude births rate, crude deaths

rate, crude immigration rate and crude emigration rate.
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Generally, the population growth rate calculated on year basis is expressed in percentage. If the
observation period is different from a year, data have to be extrapoled to a year duration.
Example: Given p = rate calculated on 120 days, then r = p * 365

120
For a short period the formula above may be represented by the following :
r = Pt+1 – Pt or Pt+1 = Pt (1+r)

Pt
The above formula can be extended to a given period. For the second period, the population
size will be:
Pt+2 = Pt+1 (1+r)
Pt+2 = Pt (1+r) (1+r) = Pt (1+r)2 , then:
Pt+n= Pt (1+r)n
Pt, P t+1, Pt+2, … ,Pt+n constitute a geometric sery with raison (1+r).
From the basic formula of population growth, we can have others formula helping to respond to
some questions.
a. Population growth rate (r)
r = nPt+n- 1
Pt
b. Doubling time
The doubling of a population requires (1+r)n to be equals to 2. In this case, the required
number of years (n) for doubling is:
n = ln 2
ln (1+r)
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Below is the doubling time for some growth rates:
Population growth rate % 0,1 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4

Doubling time (in years) 690 140 70 46,5 35 28 23,5 20 17,7
Similarly, we can calculate the tripling time or quadrupling time of a population by replacing
in the same formula 2 with 3 or 4:
c. Determination of a period (in years) required for the present population po to

grow at the population Pn.
A population increasing at a given rate r changes from a number Po to a number Pt after the
following number of years:
X = ln (Pt+n) – ln (Pt)
ln (1+r)
Where : X = number of years ; Pt and Pt+1 = population at starting time t and end periods
t+n, r the population increase rate.
2.3. Trends of the Rwandan population
a. Evolution of Rwanda population, 1934 to 2012
Year Population Year Population

1934 1.595.400 1970 3.756.607
1940 1.913.322 1975 4.242.604
1944 1.523.726 1978 4.898.000
1945 1.585.448 1980 5.257.000
1948 1.806.371 1983 5.908.000
1950 1954.870 1991 7.157.551
1955 2.326.512 2002 8.128.553
1960 2.694.990 2012 10.500.000
The table above shows that the Rwandan population was always increasing except in 1943-1944
because of a great famine called Matemane-Ruzagayura which devasted the country. Many
people died, others emigrated.
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Table: Evolution of population growth rate, 1934 et 1990
Period Rate (%) Period Rate (%)

1934-1935 5,48 1974-1975 2,4
1940-1941 0,33 1977-1978 3,5
1943-1944 -17,0 1984-1985 3,7
1949-1950 3,09 1988-1989 3,7
1954-1955 2,34 1991-2002 2.6
1964-1965 3.9 2002-2012 2.6
The increase of the population reflects in population densities (table below). Between 1934 and
1970, the population density of Rwanda has almost doubled, from 61 to 143 inhabitants per Km2.
From, 1970 to 1991, it has doubled again. In 2012, it was 400 inhab/Km2. That density makes
Rwanda the most densely populated country in Africa, after Mauritius. In some rural regions, the
population density exceeds 1000 people/km2.
Table : Population density in Rwanda, 1934 et 2002
Year Population density

1934 61
1940 73
1950 74
1970 143
1991 272
2002 308
2012 400
b. Trends in demographic indicators
Table Evolution of demographic indicators, 1934-2002
Year Crude Birth Total fertility Crude Death q0 5q0

Rate en %0 Rate Rate %0 ( %0) (%0)
1934 48 - 19 - -
1949 42 - 20 - -
1970 51 7,7 22 137 -
1978 54,1 8,6 18,5 144 224
1983 54 8,4 18 144 215
1991/ 45,7 6,9 13,8 120 191
1992 - 6,2 - 85 -
2000 - 5,8 - 107 196,2
2002 41,2 5,9 15,4 139 226,8
2012 36 4,6 - 86
Crude Birth Rate: number of births per 1000 people in the year
Total fertility Rate: average number of births per woman in her life
Crude Death Rate : number of deaths per 1000 people in the year
q0 : probability of dying before one year or number of children who die before reaching one year (first
anniversary) out 1000 births in the year.
5q0 : probability of dying before five years or number of children who die before reaching five years
out 1000 births.
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III. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based
on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the
observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates, in industrialized societies over the past
two hundred years or so.
By "model" we mean that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these

countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not
accurately describe all individual cases. Whether or not it applies to less developed societies today
remains to be seen.
This model became the basis for similar models, including the Migration Transition Model and
the Epidemiological Transition Model, which predict the patterns of international and
intranational migration flow and the characteristics of disease, respectively.
As shown, there are four stages of transition. They will be described first in terms of a typical fully
developed country today, such as The United States or Canada, the countries of Europe, or
similar societies elsewhere (e.g. Japan, Australia etc.).
STAGE ONE is associated with pre Modern times, and is characterized by a balance
between birth rates and death rates. This situation was true of all human populations up until the
late 18th.C. when the balance was broken in western Europe.
In this stage, birth and death rates are both very high (30-50 per thousand). Their approximate
balance results in only very slow population growth. As a result, population size remains fairly
constant but can have major swings with events such as wars or pandemics. Over much of pre-
history, at least since the "Agricultural Revolution" 10,000 years ago, population growth was
extremely slow. Growth rates would have been less than 0.05%, resulting in long doubling
times of the order of 1-5,000 yrs.
High birth rate and high death rate were due to various factors. Historically, high birth rates are
attributed to societies that relied heavily on agricultural productivity or unskilled manual labor,
because larger families meant a larger workforce.
A high birth rate is often the response to a high death rate as a country seeks to achieve or
maintain replacement level (total fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman). Through a deeper
analysis of circumstances that lead to high death rates, demographers often point to the rate of
infant mortality and life expectancy as rubrics for determining a high or low death rate. Infant
mortality is high when medicine and maternal care are limited or insufficient, and life expectancy
is low when sanitation and public health are not adequate. Social, environmental, and political
action all have severe consequences during this stage in regards to population because the birth
rate and death rate are so fragile.
Given its characteristics, Stage One is sometimes referred to as the "High Stationary Stage" of
population growth ("high" birth and death rates; "stationary" rates and "stationary" total
population numbers).
Death rates were very high at all times in this stage for a number of reasons, including:
 Lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure;
 occasional food shortages.
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The model is illustrated below: History of the glacial theory Development of the glacial theo
1 billion in 1804 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)
2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)
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Spikes in the rate of death were caused by outbreaks of infectious diseases such as influenza,
scarlet fever, or plague. However, on a daily basis, it was primarily the lack of clean drinking
water and efficient sewage disposal, and poor food hygiene that created an environment in which
only a minority of children survived childhood.
STAGE TWO sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rate
remains high, or perhaps even rises slightly. The result is a rapid population growth which raises
the total population. The decline in the death rate in Europe began in the late 18th.C. in
northwestern Europe and spread over the next 100 years to the south end east. Many of the least
developed countries today, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, are in Stage 2 for a variety of social and
economic reasons.
The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:
 First, improvements in food supply brought about by higher yields as agricultural practices
were improved in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th.C. These improvements included
crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill technology.
 Second, there were significant improvements in public health that reduced mortality,
particularly in childhood. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (which did not
come until the mid 20th.C.) as they are improvements in water supply, sewage, food
handling, and general personal hygiene following on from growing scientific knowledge of
the causes of disease. In fact, perhaps the most important factor here was increased female
literacy allied with public health education programs in the late 19th and early 20th
Centuries.
A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population
growth (a "population explosion") as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. Note that
this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths. This
change in population growth in north western Europe begins the population rise that has
characterized the last two centuries, climaxing in the second half of the 20thC.
Another characteristic of Stage Two of the demographic transition is a change in the age structure
of the population. In Stage One the majority of death is concentrated in the first 5-10 years of life.
Therefore, more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the increasing
survival of children. Hence, the age structure of the population becomes increasingly youthful.
This trend is intensified as this increasing number of children enter into reproduction while
maintaining the high fertility rate of their parents. The age structure of such a population is
illustrated below by using an example from the Third World today:
STAGE THREE moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate. In
developed countries, this decline began towards the end of the 19th.C. in northern Europe and
followed the decline in death rates by several decades.
In this stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic
conditions, an increase in women‟s status, and access to contraception. Population growth
continues, but at a lower rate given the lower birth and deaths rates. Most developing countries
are in Stage 3.
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Demographic Indicators
Birth Rate: 36 per thousand

Total fertility rate: 4.8 births
Natural increase: 2.9% per year 1990-
2000
Age structure: 43% under 15 yrs.age
The decline in birth rate varies from country to country, as does the time frame in which it is
experienced. Some countries go through rapid transitions where the birth rate plummets by more
than 40%, while others maintain a much more gradual decline. The rate of decline is dependent
upon the economic and social factors at play – the quicker gains are made in areas such as
education and gender equality, the faster birth rates decline.
Countries making the transition to Stage 3 all have some relative stability – economic, social or
political. It has been debated whether or not these factors influence birth and death rates or if
birth and death rates influence a country‟s development. Regardless, stable population growth
provides significant advantages for a country, offering opportunities to strengthen its economy as
a prominent number of its citizens will be in their working years. As such, Stage 3 is often viewed
as a marker of significant development. Examples of Stage 3 countries are Botswana, Colombia,
India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, just to name a few.
There are several factors contributing to this eventual decline, although some of them remain
speculative:
 In rural areas continued decline in childhood death means that at some point parents
realize they need not require so many children to be born to ensure a comfortable old age.
As childhood death continues to fall parents can become increasingly confident that even
fewer children will suffice.
 Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value
of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children to a
nuclear family (education acts and child labor acts increased dependency through the late
1800s). People begin to assess more rationally just how many children they desire or need.
Once traditional patterns of thinking are broken the decline is likely to accelerate.
 Increasing female literacy and employment lower the uncritical acceptance of childbearing
and motherhood as measures of the status of women. Valuation of women beyond
childbearing and motherhood becomes important. In addition, as women enter the work
force their life extends beyond the family and the connections they make with other
women serve to break their isolation and change their attitudes towards the burdens of
childbearing. Within the family they become increasingly influential in childbearing
decisions.
 Improvements in contraceptive technology help in the second half of the 20th.C. However,
contraceptives were not widely available in the 19th.C. and likely contributed little to the
decline. Fertility decline is caused by a change in values than by simply the availability of
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contraceptives and knowledge of how to use them. Today in the world there exists a close
correspondence between fertility and contraceptive use, but this likely means that those
families that have chosen to limit family size find contraceptives the easiest and most
effective way to do so.
The age structure of a population entering Stage Three is illustrated below by using an example
from the Third World today:
In Mexico one can see the decline in growth by means of its increasing impact on the age
structure. The youngest base of the population is no longer expanding.

2000
14
STAGE FOUR is characterized by the stability the population. In this stage the population age
structure has become older: birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. Most
developed countries are in Stage 4.
The decline in both birth and death rates of most Stage 4 countries have been attributed to strong
economies, highly educated citizens, ample healthcare systems, the migration of people from
rural communities to cities, and expanded employment opportunities for women. As these factors
play out the total fertility rate decreases until it reaches replacement level (2.1 births per woman),
at which point the country enters Stage 5. It is understood that countries in Stage 4 of the DTM
have experienced significant economic and social advances allowing for reduced family size in
relation to decades prior.

2000
In some cases the fertility rate falls well below replacement and population decline sets in
rapidly:

Natural increase: -0.1% per year 1990-
2000
A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below
replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful
population.In Stage 5 of the DTM a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death
rate becomes higher than the birth rate. The negative population growth rate is not an immediate
effect however. Based on demographic momentum, in which total population growth increases
even while birth rates decline, it will take a generation or two before a negative population growth
rate is observed.
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Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model
Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition
Model is no different. Additionally, there are things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other
demographic variables such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how
long a country will be in each stage. But even so, the relationship between birth rate and death
rate is an important concept when discussing population and any patterns, such as those provided
by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.
It has to be remembered that the DTM is only a model and cannot necessarily predict the future.
It does however give an indication of what the future birth and death rates may be for an
underdeveloped country, together with the total population size. Most particularly, of course, the
DTM makes no comment on change in population due to migration. It is not applicable for high
levels of development, as it has been shown that after a HDI of 0.9 the fertility increases again.
Non-applicability to less-developed countries
DTM has a questionable applicability to less economically developed countries (LEDCs), where
wealth and information access are limited. For example, the DTM has been validated primarily in
Europe, Japan and North America where demographic data exists over centuries, whereas high
quality demographic data for most LEDCs did not become widely available until the mid-20th
century. DTM does not account for recent phenomena such as AIDS. Some trends in waterborne
bacterial infant mortality are also disturbing in countries like Malawi, Sudan and Nigeria; for
example, progress in the DTM clearly arrested and reversed between 1975 and 2005.
Economic development not sufficient cause to affect demographic change
DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth,
without taking into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the
education of women. In recent decades more work has been done on developing the social
mechanisms behind it.
DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. Nevertheless, demographers
maintain that there is no historical evidence for society-wide fertility rates rising significantly
after high mortality events. Notably, some historic populations have taken many years to replace
lives after events such as the Black Death.
Some have claimed that DTM does not explain the early fertility declines in much of Asia in the
second half of the 20th century or the delays in fertility decline in parts of the Middle East.
Nevertheless, the demographer John C Caldwell has suggested that the reason for the rapid
decline in fertility in some developing countries compared to Western Europe, the United States
of America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand is mainly due to government programs and a
massive investment in education both by governments and parents.
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3.1 Epidemiological transition
Diagram showing sharp birth rate and death rate decreases between Time 1 and Time 4, the
congruent increase in population caused by delayed birth rate decreases, and the subsequent re-
leveling of population growth by Time 5.
In demography and medical geography, epidemiological transition is a phase of development

witnessed by a sudden and stark increase in population growth rates brought about by medical
innovation in disease or sickness therapy and treatment, followed by a re-leveling of population
growth from subsequent declines in fertility rates. "Epidemiological transition" accounts for the
replacement of infectious diseases by chronic diseases over time due to expanded public health
and sanitation. This theory was originally posited by Abdel Omran in 1971.
Theory
Omran divided the epidemiological transition of mortality into three phases, in the last of which
chronic diseases replace infection as the primary cause of death. These phases are:
 The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Where mortality is high and fluctuating, precluding
sustained population growth, with low and variable life expectancy, vacillating between 20
and 40 years.
 The Age of Receding Pandemics: Where mortality progressively declines, with the rate of
decline accelerating as epidemic peaks decrease in frequency. Average life expectancy
increases steadily from about 30 to 50 years. Population growth is sustained and begins to
be exponential.
 The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases: Mortality continues to decline and
eventually approaches stability at a relatively low level.
The epidemiological transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization from
developing nation to developed nation status. The developments of modern healthcare, and
medicine like antibiotics, drastically reduces infant mortality rates and extends average life
expectancy which, coupled with subsequent declines in fertility rates, reflects a transition to
chronic and degenerative diseases which were more important causes of death.
17
History
In general human history, Omran's first phase occurs when human population sustains cyclic,
low-growth, and mostly linear, up-and-down patterns associated with wars, famine, epidemic
outbreaks, as well as small golden ages, and localized periods of "prosperity". In early pre-
agricultural history, infant mortality rates were high and average life expectancy low. Today, life
expectancy in third world countries remains relatively low, as in many Sub-Saharan
African nations where it typically doesn't exceed 60 years of age.[
The second phase involves advancements in medicine and the development of a healthcare
system. Half of the deaths prevented during the 19th century may be due to clean water provided
by public utilities with a particular benefit for children.[6][7] One treatment breakthrough of note
was the discovery of penicillin in the mid 20th century which led to widespread and dramatic
declines in death rates from previously serious diseases such as syphilis. Population growth rates
surged in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, to 1.8% per year and higher, with the world gaining 2
billion people between 1950 and the 1980s alone.
Omran's third phase occurs when human birth rates drastically decline from highly positive
replacement numbers to stable replacement rates. In several European nations replacement rates
have even become negative.[8] As this transition generally represents the net effect of individual
choices on family size (and the ability to implement those choices), it is more complicated. Omran
gives three possible factors tending to encourage reduced fertility rates:
1. Bio-physiologic factors, associated with reduced infant mortality and the expectation of
longer life in parents;
2. Socioeconomic factors, associated with childhood survival and the economic perceptions
of large family size; and
3. Psychologic or emotional factors, where society as a whole changes its rationale and
opinion on family size and parental energies are redirected to qualitative aspects of child-
raising.
This transition may also be associated with the sociological adaptations associated with
demographic movements to urban areas, and a shift from agriculture and labor based production
output to technological and service-sector-based economies.
Regardless, Chronic and degenerative diseases, and accidents and injuries, became more
important causes of death. This shift in demographic and disease profiles is currently under way
in most developing nations, however every country is unique in its transition speed based on a
myriad of geographical and socio-political factors.
Controversy
Many question whether or not epidemiological transition really took place during the twentieth
century. The transition during this time describes the replacement of infectious diseases by
chronic diseases. This replacement of diseases has been identified to be caused by multiple factors
such as antibiotics and increased overall public sanitation. Even though these factors undeniably
affected society in ways such as increased lifespan, many believe that the increase from infectious
disease to chronic disease may be an illusion. It is debated that there was an actual increase in
chronic diseases. Instead it is argued that due to new techniques of diagnosing and managing
diseases that previously had not been diagnosed and untreated, it gave the appearance of an
emergence of new chronic illnesses. Multiple factors made chronic diseases more visible to health
care professionals such as increased use of hospitals as treatment centers and improved statistical
evaluation. This led to the question, "Was an epidemiological transition really taking place in the
twentieth century?"
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3.2. Migration Transition Model: Zelinsky Model
The Zelinsky Model of Migration Transition, also known as the Migration Transition
Model, claims that the type of migration that occurs within a country depends on how developed
it is or what type of society it is. A connection is drawn from migration to the stages of within
the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). It was developed by Wilbur Zelinsky (1921-2013),
longtime professor of geography at the Pennsylvania State University.
Model Stages
 Phase one (“Premodern traditional society”): This is before the onset of the urbanization,
and there is very little migration. Natural increase rates are about zero.
 Phase two (“Early transitional society”): There is “massive movement from countryside to
cities... as a community experiences the process of modernisation”. There is “rapid rate of
natural increase”. Internationally, there is a high rate of emigration, though the total
population is still rising.
 Phase three (“Late transitional society”): This phase corresponds to the “critical rung...of the
mobility transition” where urban-to-urban migration surpasses the rural-to-urban migration,
where rural-to-urban migration “continues but at waning absolute or relative rates”, and a
“complex migrational and circulatory movements within the urban network, from city to city
or within a single metropolitan region” increased, non-economic migration and circulation
began to emerge. Here, the net-out migration trend shifts to a net-in migration trend as more
people immigrate than emigrate.
 Phase four (“Advanced society”): The “movement from countryside to city continues but is
further reduced in absolute and relative terms, vigorous movement of migrants from city to
city and within individual urban agglomerations...especially within a highly elaborated lattice
of major and minor metropolises” is observed. Significant urban to suburban migration also
occurs. There is “slight to moderate rate of natural increase or none at all”.
 Phase five (“Future superadvanced society”): “Nearly all residential migration may be of the
interurban and intraurban variety….No plausible predictions of fertility behaviour,...a stable
mortality pattern slightly below present levels”.

IV. POPULATION COMPOSITION
4.1. Population pyramid
A population pyramid, also called an age pyramid or age picture diagram, is a graphical
illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population (typically that of a
19
country or region of the world), which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is
growing. It is also used in ecology to determine the overall age distribution of a population; an
indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of the continuation of a species.
It typically consists of two back-to-back bar graphs, with the population plotted on the X-axis and
age on the Y-axis, one showing the number of males and one showing females in a particular
population in five-year age groups (also called cohorts). Males are conventionally shown on the
left and females on the right, and they may be measured by raw number or as a percentage of the
total population.
Population pyramids are often viewed as the most effective way to graphically depict the age and
sex distribution of a population, partly because of the very clear image these pyramids present.[2]
A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a
population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of development and other aspects of the
population. A population pyramid also tells how many people of each age range live in the area.
There tends to be more females than males in the older age groups, due to females' longer life
expectancy.
4. 2. Types of population pyramid
Population pyramids for 4 stages of the demographic transition model
While all countries' population pyramids differ, four general types have been identified by the
fertility and mortality rates of a country.
Stable pyramid
A population pyramid showing an unchanging pattern of fertility and mortality.
Stationary pyramid
A population pyramid typical of countries with low fertility and low mortality, very similar
to a constrictive pyramid.
Expansive pyramid
A population pyramid that is very wide at the base, indicating high birth and death rates.
Constrictive pyramid
A population pyramid that comes in at the bottom. The population is generally older on
average, as the country has long life expectancy, a low death rate, but also a low birth rate.
This pyramid is becoming more common, especially when immigrants are factored out,
and is a typical pattern for a very developed country, a high level of education, easy access
to and incentive to use birth control, good health care, and few negative environmental
factors.
20
In some countries the above "pyramids" are referred to by a description of their shape. The classic
one is of course the pyramid. The stationary pyramid is referred to as a "clock-model" (like the
bell in a clock tower). The contracting pyramid is referred to as "onion" shaped. Sometimes even
as "urn" shaped.
4.3. Youth bulge

The expansive case was described as youth bulge by Gary Fuller (1995). Gunnar
Heinsohn (2003) argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably
leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the "third and fourth sons" that find no prestigious
positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political
ideology.
Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as
rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most genocides can
be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-
century fascism, rise of Communism during the Cold War, and ongoing conflicts such as that
in Darfur and terrorism. This factor has been also used to account for the Arab
Spring events. Economic recessions, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Late
2000s recession, are also claimed to be explained in part due to a large youth population who
cannot find jobs. Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest
and uprisings in society. A 2016 study finds that youth bulges increase the chances of non-ethnic
civil wars, but not ethnic civil wars.
Youth bulge theory represents one of the most recently developed theories of war and social
unrest, and has become highly influential on U.S. foreign policy as two major U.S. proponents of
the theory, political scientists Jack Goldstone and Gary Fuller, have acted as consultants to the
U.S. government.
A large population of adolescents entering the labor force and electorate strains at the seams of
the economy and polity, which were designed for smaller populations. This creates
unemployment and alienation unless new opportunities are created quickly enough – in which
case a 'demographic dividend' accrues because productive workers outweigh young and elderly
dependents. Yet the 16–30 age range is associated with risk-taking, especially among males. In
general, youth bulges in developing countries are associated with higher unemployment and, as a
result, a heightened risk of violence and political instability. For Cincotta and Doces (2011), the
transition to more mature age structures is almost a sine qua non for democratization.
4.4. Use of population pyramids

Population pyramids can be used to find the number of economic dependents being supported in
a particular population. Economic dependents are defined as those under 15 (children who are in
full-time education and therefore unable to work) and those over 65 (those who have the option of
being retired). In some less developed countries children start work well before the age of 15, and
in some developed countries it is common to not start work until 30 (like in the North European
countries), and people may work beyond the age of 65, or retire early. Therefore, the definition
provides an approximation. In many countries, the government plans the economy in such a way
that the working population can support these dependents.
Median Age
21
Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups - that is, half
the people are younger than this age and half are older. It is a single index that summarizes the
age distribution of a population.
Country/Region Total Male Female

World 29.7 28.9 30.4
Uganda 15.5 15.5 15.6
Mali 16 15.4 16.7
Burundi 17 16.7 17.2
Rwanda 18.7 18.4 18.9
Norway 39.1 38.2 39.9
Greece 43.5 42.4 44.6
Italy 44.5 43.3 45.6
Germany 46.1 45.1 47.2
Japan 46.1 44.8 47.5
Currently, the median age ranges from a low of about 15 in Uganda to 40 or more in
several European countries, Canada and Japan. The median age for females tends to be much
greater than that of men in some of the ex-Soviet republics, while in the Global South the
difference is far smaller or is reversed.
4.5. Sex Ratio
Sex Ratio of some countries
Country /Region At birth Under 15 15-64 Over 65 Total

World 1.07 1.07 0.99 0.80 1.01
Rwanda 1.03 1.01 1.00 0.66 0.99

Cote d'Ivoire 1.03 1.02 1.04 0.99 1.03
Kenya 1.02 1.01 1.01 0.84 1.00
Belgium 1.05 1.04 1.02 0.71 0.96
Iran 1.05 1.05 1.02 0.92 1.02
Israel 1.05 1.05 1.03 0.77 1.00
United States 1.05 1.04 1.07 0.75 0.97
Libya 1.05 1.04 1.06 0.96 1.05
Netherlands 1.05 1.05 1.02 0.76 0.98
Nigeria 1.06 1.05 1.04 0.94 1.04
Spain 1.07 1.06 1.01 0.72 0.96
India 1.12 1.13 1.13 0.90 1.08
China 1.12 1.17 1.06 0.93 1.06
22
In anthropology and demography, the human sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in
a population. The sex ratio at birth worldwide is commonly thought to be 107 boys to 100 girls,
although this value is subject to debate in the scientific community. The sex ratio for the
entire world population is 101 males to 100 females.
Gender imbalance may arise as a consequence of various factors including natural factors,
exposure to pesticides and environmental contaminants, war casualties, gender-selective
abortions and infanticides, aging, and deliberate gendercide.
Human sex ratios, either at birth or in the population as a whole, are reported in any of four ways:
the ratio of males to females, the ratio of females to males, the proportion of males, or the
proportion of females. If there are 108,000 males and 100,000 females the ratio of males to
females is 1.080 and the proportion of males is 51.9%. Scientific literature often uses the
proportion of males. This article uses the ratio of males to females, unless specified otherwise.
4.6. Dependency ratio
A dependency ratio is a mathematical sum that allows governments to judge how many people
of working age they have relative to how many people are said to be DEPENDENT.
In economics, geography and demography the dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of
those typically not in the labor force (the dependent part) and those typically in the labor force
(the productive part). It is used to measure the pressure on productive population.
The inverse of the dependency ratio, the inverse dependency ratio can be interpreted as how
many independent workers have to provide for one dependent person (pension & expenditure on
children)
In published international statistics, the dependent part usually includes those under the age of 15
and over the age of 64.The productive part makes up the population in between, ages 15 – 64. It is
normally expressed as a percentage:
As the ratio increases there may be an increased burden on the productive part of the population
to maintain the upbringing and pensions of the economically dependent. This results in direct
impacts on financial expenditures on things like social security, as well as many indirect
consequences.
The (total) dependency ratio can be decomposed into the child dependency ratio and the aged
dependency ratio:
As of 2010, Japan and Europe had high aged dependency ratios compared to other parts of the
world.
A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a
government's expenditure is on health, social security & education, which are most used by the
youngest and the oldest in a population. The fewer people of working age, the fewer the people
23
who can support schools, retirement pensions, disability pensions and other assistances to the
youngest and oldest members of a population, often considered the most vulnerable members
of society.
Nevertheless, the dependency ratio ignores the fact that the 65+ are not necessarily dependent
(an increasing proportion of them is working) and that many of those of 'working age' are actually
not working. Alternatives have been developed', such as the 'economic dependency ratio', but they
still ignore factors such as increases in productivity and in working hours. Worries about
increasing (demographic) dependency ratio should thus be taken with caution.
According to the categories of ages, we distinguish:

Total dependency ratio - ratio of combined youth population (ages 0-14) and elderly population
(ages 65+) per 100 people of working age (ages 15-64). A high total dependency ratio indicates
that the working-age population and the overall economy face a greater burden to support and
provide social services for youth and elderly persons, who are often economically dependent.
Youth dependency ratio - ratio of the youth population (ages 0-14) per 100 people of working age
(ages 15-64). A high youth dependency ratio indicates that a greater investment needs to be made
in schooling and other services for children.
Elderly dependency ratio - ratio of the elderly population (ages 65+) per 100 people of working
age (ages 15-64). Increases in the elderly dependency ratio put added pressure on governments to
fund pensions and healthcare.
Migrant Labor Dependency Ratio

Migrant Labor Dependency Ratio (MLDR) is used to describe the extent to which the domestic
population is dependent upon migrant labor.
World Bank Indicators of Dependency Ratio

1990 2000 2014
Population ages 0-14 (% of total) in World 32.9 30.2 26.2
Population ages 15-64 (% of total) in World 61.1 62.9 65.7
Population ages 65 and above (% of total) in World 6.1 6.9 8.1
Age dependency ratio (% of working-age 65.4 60.3 53.9
population) in World
Age dependency ratio; old (% of working-age 10.0 11.0 12.3
Age dependency ratio; young (% of working-age 53.8 48.1 39.9
24
V. THEORIES FOR THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

POPULATION AND RESOURCES
Introduction
For a long time ego, almost all-primitive societies shared the view of valuing reproduction as a
means of replacing people who die. The main reason laying behind this is the high mortality,
which was prevalent. We will analyse some of the points of view of philosophers on this issue.
Population concern is fundamentally a concern about the balance between human needs and the
resources available to meet those needs, now, and for the foreseeable future. From the period of
Confucius and Aristotle, observers throughout history have noted the consequences of
unsustainable population growth. Such concerns tended to increase at times when population
grew, but then subsided when technology enabled resources to catch up. However, their concerns
about a rising population have too often been drowned out by those who support population
growth for economic or political reasons.
5.1. Pre-modern Population doctrines
Since time immemorial, scholars and thinkers have concerned themselves with the population
question. Of course the points of view have differed, especially as they related to the size and
growth of human populations. A large and rapidly growing population has sometimes been
considered to be desirable as a source of the nation's strength and wealth and as an essentially
useful factor underlying technological development. At the other extreme, it has been viewed as a
contributory factor in poverty and such catastrophes as wars, famines and epidemics. The size
and growth of population has thus been viewed as an important factor underlying the
development of any country.
It is, therefore, worthwhile to trace the development in the thinking of scholars and the different
points of views expressed by them with respect to population phenomena within the socio-
economic-political context.
In ancient times, several statesmen and thinkers applied their minds to the question of the
desirable size of population and the need for either encouraging or discouraging population
growth. The basis for such concern was mainly practical, covering military, political, social
and economic issues, and usually led to the formulation of a specific public policy. Such
thinking, however, cannot be designated as any statement of a consistent population theory. In
the true sense of the term, a population theory can be considered to have emerged only in the
eighteen century when the well-known work of Thomas Malthus was published, though some
thought was given to population issues in earlier periods. Since Malthus, impressive contributions
have been made to the population theory. In this chapter it is, therefore, proposed to discuss the
various theories as they relate, first, to the early periods and then to the pre-Malthusian,
Malthusian and post-Malthusian periods.
The two opposite viewpoints regarding population size and growth will be examined in the
context of the social-economic-political thinking of the times as well as the actual demographic
situations.
25
Population theories in ancient China: Confucius (551 – 479 BC)
The traces of some ideas, which have gained prominence in recent theoretical writings on
population such as the effects of excessive population growth on the levels of living, internal
peace, and productivity per worker may be noticed in the writings of some ancient thinkers and
philosophers.
It appears that the great Chinese philosopher, Confucius, and those belonging to his school of
thought, as well as a few other Chinese thinkers, had given some thought to the concept of
optimum population as it related to agricultural land. They had also considered population
growth in relation to the availability of resources and the possible checks on this growth. It must,
however, be pointed out that the doctrines of Confucius on marriage, family and procreation were
generally in favour of population increase.
Population Theories in Greece: Plato and Aristote
Plato’s writing in the laws in 360 B C, on the other hand mentioned the importance of
population stability rather than growth. Aristotle, in the Politics written in 340 BC
advocated that the law limits the number of children, and that if a woman became
pregnant after already having all the children that the law allowed, an abortion would
be appropriate.
For him, large increase in population would bring certain poverty on the citizenry, and
poverty is the cause of sedition and evil.” At his time world population was
estimated at 100 million.
The population theories and policies of the Greeks and the Romans may best be understood with
reference to their ideals. In the Greek scheme of political life, the individual was only a part of the
state and had to play a subordinate role to it.
This viewpoint was reflected in their thinking on various social institutions. For instance, in
ancient Sparta, marriage was considered as an institution created by the legal and political
system, to provide the state with inhabitants and citizens.
The real purpose of marriage was, therefore, emphasised as being the procreation of children.
Continual wars, which decreased the population size, demanded a constant supply of men. All
Spartans were therefore, compelled to get married. Celibacy was punishable by law and
denounced in public. The state required that all marriages should be good, in the sense that
children, sound in body and mind, should be born of such marriages. Fathers, who had sired
three or for sons, were publicly rewarded in Sparta. The Spartans, however, were also very much
concerned about the quality of their population and disfavoured the overburdening of the state
with useless inhabitants. As a result, deformed babies were invariably eliminated.
In Athens, the rules concerning procreation were somewhat less rigid, though Athenian customs
and laws also encouraged frequent child bearing.
It is remarkable that policies relating to population growth underwent changes to suit changing
situations. During times of peace, when population increased rapidly, the usual recourse was to
an expansionist policy of colonization, while, in order to avoid over-population, the Greeks even
encouraged abortions and exposure of the new-born babies, leading to infanticide.
It must, however, be remembered that, like the Spartans, the Athenians were also interested in
maintaining and improving the quality of the population.
26
From this, it is obvious that the Greeks were concerned about the size of the population more
from the points of view of defense, security and government than from that of economic
resources.
Plato (427-347 B.C.) was more specific on this point when he stated that if the "highest good"
was to be achieved, the city-state should have 5,040 citizens and land, houses and property
should be equally divided among them.
It may be noted that Plato referred only to citizens, and did not include women, children and
slaves in this ideal number of 5,040. The total population of such an ideal city- state was about
50,000.
The possibility that demographic trends may not follow the ideals laid down by him was not
overlooked by Plato. To tackle the problem of over-population, he recommended infanticide,
exposure and abandonment of deformed infants on grounds of eugenics, and even advocated
colonisation, if necessary. If the population decreased, Plato's remedy was immigration. His
ponytails measures included rewards, advice and scolding to young persons failing in their duty to
achieve a certain family size.
According to Plato, the purpose of marriage was to bring forth children. He recommended that
women should get married between the ages of 16 to 20, and even went so far as they say that
marriage should be made compulsory for girls between these ages.
The figure of 5,040 citizens, which Plato mentioned as ideal for a city-state, appears to be a little
intriguing. It is obvious that Plato attached some importance to this figure, for it is mentioned at
least four times in The Laws. He has not offered much of an explanation for recommending this
figure, beyond the one that the number 5,040 can be divided by all the numbers from one to
twelve, except eleven. Even after dividing this figure by eleven the correction required would only
be marginal, and by deducting two families from this figure, the defect would be taken care of.
Plato's views on population, as expressed in his Laws, were based upon his ideal of the city-state
rather than upon a broad view of human society.
Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) was of the opinion that an excessive number of people would give rise to
poverty and other social ills, since it was not possible to increase land and property as rapidly as
the size of the population. As preventive checks, he suggested abortion and exposure of babies. In
order to control the size of the city-state, Aristotle even proposed a limit on the number of
children each couple should have.
To sum up, the Greeks were interested in maintaining population size which was
appropriate for a city-state. They also emphasised the quality of the population. They were
interested in what may be called political, rather than economic, questions, and their politics were
the politics of small city-states.
5.2. Modern Population doctrines: Malthusianism Theory
Modern population theories start with the English clergyman Thomas Malthus (1766 – 1834),
who wrote when the human population was at 900 million. He attempted to theorise humanity‟s
growth pattern, observing, “Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical
27
ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.”Malthus therefore advocated

family planning to ensure the demand for food did not exceed supply.
a. Malthusianism theory
Thomas Robert Malthus was a British scholar, influential in political economy and
demography. He popularized the economic theory of rent.
Malthus has become widely known for his theories concerning population and its increase or
decrease in response to various factors. The six editions of his An Essay on the Principle of
Population, published from 1798 to 1826, observed that sooner or later population gets checked
by famine, disease, and widespread mortality. He wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-
century Europe that saw society as improving, and in principle as perfectible. William Godwin
and the Marquis de Condorcet, for example, believed in the possibility of almost limitless
improvement of society. So, in a more complex way, did Jean-Jacques Rousseau, whose notions
centered on the goodness of man and the liberty of citizens bound only by the social contract, a
form of popular sovereignty.
Malthus thought that the dangers of population growth would preclude endless progress towards
a utopian society: "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to
produce subsistence for man". As an Anglican clergyman, Malthus saw this situation as divinely
imposed to teach virtuous behaviour. Believing that one could not change human nature, Malthus
wrote:
 "That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence,

 That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase, and,
 That the superior power of population it repressed, and the actual population kept equal to
the means of subsistence, by misery and vice."
Malthus became hugely influential, and controversial, in economic, political, social and scientific
thought. Many of those whom subsequent centuries term evolutionary biologists read him,
notably Charles Darwin and Alfred Russell Wallace, for each of whom Malthusianism became an
intellectual stepping-stone to the idea of natural selection. Malthus remains a writer of great
significance and controversy.
b. Biography
Robert Malthus was born in "the Rookery", a country estate in Dorking, Surrey (south of
London). He was the second son (among seven children) of Daniel and Henrietta Malthus, a
country gentleman and avid disciple of Jean-Jacques Rousseau and David Hume.
Accordingly, Malthus was educated according to Rousseauvian precepts by his father and a
series of tutors. Malthus entered Jesus College, where he took prizes in English declamation,
Latin and Greek, and graduated with honours, Ninth Wrangler in mathematics. He took the
MA degree in 1791, and was elected a Fellow of Jesus College, Cambridge two years later. In
1797, he took orders and in 1798 became an Anglican country curate at Okewood near Albury
in Surrey.
Malthus married his cousin, Harriet, on April 12, 1804, and had three children: Henry, Emily
and Lucy. In 1805 he became Professor of History and Political Economy at the East India
Company College (now known as Haileybury) in Hertfordshire. His students affectionately
referred to him as "Pop" or "Population" Malthus. In 1818 Malthus became a Fellow of the
Royal Society.
28
c. An Essay on the Principle of Population
Between 1798 and 1826 Malthus published six editions of his famous treatise, An Essay on the
Principle of Population, updating each edition to incorporate new material, to address criticism,
and to convey changes in his own perspectives on the subject. He wrote the original text in
reaction to the optimism of his father and his father's associates (notably Rousseau) regarding the
future improvement of society. Malthus also constructed his case as a specific response to
writings of William Godwin (1756–1836) and of the Marquis de Condorcet (1743–1794).
In this famous work, Malthus posited his hypothesis that (unchecked) population growth
always exceeds the growth of means of subsistence. Actual (checked) population growth
is kept in line with food supply growth by "positive checks" (starvation, disease and the like,
elevating the death rate) and "preventive checks" (i.e. postponement of marriage, etc. that keep
down the birth rate), both of which are characterized by "misery and vice". Malthus's hypothesis
implied that actual population always has a tendency to push above the food supply. Because of
this tendency, any attempt to ameliorate the condition of the lower classes by increasing their
incomes or improving agricultural productivity would be fruitless, as the extra means of
subsistence would be completely absorbed by an induced boost in population. As long as this
tendency remains, Malthus argued, the "perfectibility" of society will always be out of reach.
In his much-expanded and revised 1803 edition of the Essay, Malthus concentrated on bringing
empirical evidence to bear (much of it acquired on his extensive travels to Germany, Russia and
Scandinavia). He also introduced the possibility of "moral restraint" (voluntary
abstinence which leads to neither misery nor vice) bringing the unchecked population growth rate
down to a point where the tendency is gone. In practical policy terms, this meant inculcating the
lower classes with middle-class virtues. He believed this could be done with the introduction of
universal suffrage, state-run education for the poor and, more controversially, the elimination of
the Poor Laws and the establishment of an unfettered nation-wide labor market. He also
argued that once the poor had a taste for luxury, then they would demand a higher standard of
living for themselves before starting a family. Thus, although seemingly contradictory, Malthus is
suggesting the possibility of "demographic transition", i.e. that sufficiently high incomes may be
enough by themselves to reduce fertility
Malthus regarded ideals of future improvement in the lot of humanity with skepticism,
considering that throughout history a segment of every human population seemed relegated to
poverty. He explained this phenomenon by arguing that population growth generally expanded in
times and in regions of plenty until the size of the population relative to the primary resources
caused distress:
"Yet in all societies, even those that are most vicious, the tendency to a virtuous attachment
is so strong that there is a constant effort towards an increase of population. This constant
effort as constantly tends to subject the lower classes of the society to distress and to prevent
any great permanent amelioration of their condition".
"The way in which these effects are produced seems to be this. We will suppose the means of
subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort
towards population... increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are
increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millions must now be divided among
seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and
many of them be reduced to severe distress. The number of labourers also being above the
proportion of the work in the market, the price of labour must tend toward a decrease, while the
price of provisions would at the same time tend to rise. The labourer therefore must work harder
29
to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragements to
marriage, and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great that population is at a stand. In the
mean time the cheapness of labour, the plenty of labourers, and the necessity of an increased
industry amongst them, encourage cultivators to employ more labour upon their land, to turn up
fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage, till ultimately
the means of subsistence become in the same proportion to the population as at the period from
which we set out. The situation of the labourer being then again tolerably comfortable, the
restraints to population are in some degree loosened, and the same retrograde and progressive
movements with respect to happiness are repeated".
Malthus also saw that societies through history had experienced at one time or another
epidemics, famines, or wars: events that masked the fundamental problem of populations
overstretching their resource limitations:
"The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for
man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of
mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great
army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in
this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in
terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still
incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the
population with the food of the world".
d. Proposed solutions
Malthus argued that two types of checks hold population within resource limits: positive checks,
which raise the death rate; and preventative ones, which lower the birth rate. The positive
checks include hunger, disease and war; the preventative checks, abortion, birth control,
prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy.
In the second and subsequent editions Malthus put more emphasis on moral restraint. By that he
meant the postponement of marriage until people could support a family, coupled with strict
celibacy (sexual abstinence) until that time. "He went so far as to claim that moral restraint on a
wide scale was the best means—indeed, the only means—of easing the poverty of the lower
classes." This plan appeared consistent with virtue, economic gain and social improvement.
This train of thought counterpoints Malthus's stand on public assistance to the poor. He proposed
the gradual abolition of poor laws by gradually reducing the number of persons qualifying for
relief. Relief in dire distress would come from private charity. He reasoned that poor relief acted
against the longer-term interests of the poor by raising the price of commodities and undermining
the independence and resilience of the peasant. In other words, the poor laws tended to "create
the poor which they maintain".
It offended Malthus that critics claimed he lacked a caring attitude toward the situation of the
poor. In the 1798 edition his concern for the poor shows in passages such as the following:
Nothing is so common as to hear of encouragements that ought to be given to population. If the

tendency of mankind to increase be so great as I have represented it to be, it may appear
strange that this increase does not come when it is thus repeatedly called for. The true reason is
that the demand for a greater population is made without preparing the funds necessary to
support it. Increase the demand for agricultural labour by promoting cultivation, and with it
consequently increase the produce of the country, and ameliorate the condition of the labourer,
and no apprehensions whatever need be entertained of the proportional increase of population.
30
An attempt to affect this purpose in any other way is vicious, cruel, and tyrannical, and in any
state of tolerable freedom cannot therefore succeed.
e. Influence on religion
As a believer and a clergyman, Malthus held that God had created an inexorable tendency to
human population growth for a moral purpose, with the constant harsh threat of poverty and
starvation designed to teach the virtues of hard work and virtuous behaviour.
The issue has occurred to many believers: why should an omnipotent and caring God permit the
existence of wickedness and suffering in the world? Malthus's theodicy answers that evil energizes
mankind in the struggle for good. "Had population and food increased in the same ratio, it is
probable that man might never have emerged from the savage state". The principle of population
represented more than the difference between an arithmetic and a geometric series; it provided
the spur for constructive activity:
"Evil exists in the world not to create despair, but activity."

Malthus saw "the infinite variety of nature" which "cannot exist without inferior parts, or
apparent blemishes". Such diversity and struggle functioned to enable the development of
improved forms. Without such a contest, no species would feel impelled to improve itself.
Without the test of struggle, and the failure or even death of some, no successful development of
the population as a whole would take place. For Malthus, evil invigorates good and death
replenishes life. Malthus painted a picture of fecundity in the face of enduring resource-scarcity,
in which adversity and evil can stimulate beneficial outcomes.
f. Demographics and wages

Malthus saw poverty as a positive check to population growth, believing people without means
less likely to have children whom they could not support. Similarly, as wages increased, the birth-
rate could be expected to increase while the death-rate decreased. Consequently, wage increases
caused populations to grow. Malthus believed that this inevitably led to economic oscillations
between relative prosperity and distress, though the oscillations were not always apparent.
5.3. Reactions to his ideas

Malthus became subject to extreme personal criticism. People who knew nothing about his
private life criticized him both for having no children and for having too many. In 1819, Shelley,
berating Malthus as a priest, called him "a eunuch and a tyrant" (though the Church of England
does not require celibacy, and Malthus had married in 1804). Marx repeated the lie, adding that
Malthus had taken the vow of celibacy, and called him "superficial", "a professional plagiarist",
"the agent of the landed aristocracy", "a paid advocate" and "the principal enemy of the people."
In the 20th century an editor of the Everyman edition of Malthus claimed that Malthus had
practiced population control by begetting eleven girls. In fact, Malthus fathered two daughters
and one son.
31
a. The socialist Karl Marx
Karl Marx and Friedrick Engels were sceptical of Malthusian eternal curve of the
population tending to outstrip resources. According to them, this problem could be solved
by socialism where population growth would be absorbed by the economy with no side
effects. They believed that Science and technology would increase as quickly as the
population increase the availability of food and that the result of the population growth
should lead to a significant increase in production. According to them, population pressure
would only lead to reduce means of employment rather that means of existence.
Another strand of opposition to Malthus's ideas started in the middle of the nineteenth century
with the writings of Friedrich Engels (Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy, 1844) and Karl
Marx (Capital, 1867). Engels and Marx argued that what Malthus saw as the problem of the
pressure of population on the means of production actually represented the pressure of the means
of production on population. They thus viewed it in terms of their concept of the reserve army of
labour. In other words, the seeming excess of population that Malthus attributed to the seemingly
innate disposition of the poor to reproduce beyond their means actually emerged as a product of
the very dynamic of capitalist economy.
Engels called Malthus's hypothesis "...the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a
system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love the neighbour and
world citizenship." Engels also predicted that science would solve the problem of an adequate
food supply.
In the Marxist tradition, Lenin sharply criticized Malthusian theory and its neo-Malthusian
version, calling it a "reactionary doctrine" and "an attempt on the part of bourgeois ideologists to
exonerate capitalism and to prove the inevitability of privation and misery for the working class
under any social system".
b. Ester Boserup (1910 – 1999)
Born in Ester Børgesen in Copenhagen, Boserup was a Danish economist. She studied economic
and agricultural development, worked at the United Nations as well as other international
organizations, and she wrote several books. Her most notable book is „The Conditions of
Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure’. This
"classic ... work on agricultural intensification" presents a "dynamic analysis
embracing all types of primitive agriculture. The work challenges the assumption dating
back to Malthus‟s time (and still held in many quarters) that agricultural methods determine
population (via food supply). Instead, Boserup argued that population determines
agricultural methods. A major point of her book is that "necessity is the mother of
invention". It was her great belief that humanity would always find a way and said: "The power
of ingenuity would always outmatch that of demand".
Scholarly contributions
According to Malthusian theory, the size and growth of the population depends on the food
supply and agricultural methods. In Boserup‟s theory agricultural methods depend on the size of
the population. In the Malthusian view, in times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the
excess population will die. However, Boserup argued that in those times of pressure, people will
find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers. The
process of raising production at the cost of more work at lower efficiency is what Boserup
describes as "agricultural intensification".
32
c. Other dissenters
Some 19th-century economists believed that improvements in finance, manufacturing and

science rendered some of Malthus's warnings implausible. They had in mind the division and
specialization of labour, increased capital investment, and increased productivity of the land due
to the introduction of science into agriculture. Even in the absence of improvement in technology
or of increase of capital equipment, an increased supply of labour may have a synergistic effect on
productivity that overcomes the law of diminishing returns.
Economist Julian Lincoln Simon has criticized Malthus's conclusions. He notes that despite
the predictions of Malthus and of the Neo-Malthusians, massive geometric population growth in
the 20th century did not result in a Malthusian catastrophe. Many factors may have contributed:
general improvements in farming methods (industrial agriculture), mechanization of work
(tractors), the introduction of high-yield varieties of wheat and other plants (green revolution),
the use of pesticides to control crop pests. Each played a role. The enviro-sceptic Bjørn Lomborg
presents data showing that the environment has actually improved. Calories produced per day per
capita globally went up 23% between 1960 and 2000, despite the world population doubling
during that period. Anthropologist Eric Ross depicts Malthus's work as a rationalization of the
social inequities produced by the Industrial Revolution, anti-immigration movements, the
eugenics movement and the various international development movements.
d. The Neo-Malthusianism theory
At Haileybury, Malthus developed a theory of demand-supply mismatches which he called gluts.

Considered ridiculous at the time, his theory foreshadowed later theories about the Great
Depression of the 1930s, and the works of economist and Malthus-admirer J. M. Keynes (1883–
1946).
Malthusian ideas continue to have considerable influence. Paul R. Ehrlich has written several
books predicting famine as a result of population increase: The Population Bomb (1968);
Population, resources, environment: issues in human ecology (1970, with Anne Ehrlich); The
end of affluence (1974, with Anne Ehrlich); The population explosion (1990, with Anne Ehrlich).
In the late 1960s Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions would die from a coming
overpopulation-crisis in the 1970s. Other examples of applied Malthusianism include the 1972
book The Limits to Growth.
More recently, a school of "neo-Malthusian" scholars has begun to link population and
economics to a third variable, political change and political violence, and to show how the
variables interact. In the early 1980s, James Goldstone linked population variables to the English
Revolution of 1640-1660 and David Lempert devised a model of demographics, economics, and
political change in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius. These approaches suggest that political
ideology follows demographic forces.
e. Influence of Malthusianism in Biology
Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace each read and acknowledged the role played by
Malthus in the development of their own ideas. Darwin referred to Malthus as "that great
philosopher", and said: "This is the doctrine of Malthus, applied with manifold force to the animal
and vegetable kingdoms, for in this case there can be no artificial increase of food, and no
prudential restraint from marriage". Darwin also wrote:
33
"In October 1838... I happened to read for amusement Malthus on Population... it at once
struck me that under these circumstances favourable variations would tend to be
preserved, and unfavourable ones to be destroyed. The result of this would be the
formation of new species."
Wallace stated:
"But perhaps the most important book I read was Malthus's Principles of Population... It
was the first great work I had yet read treating of any of the problems of philosophical
biology, and its main principles remained with me as a permanent possession, and twenty
years later gave me the long-sought clue to the effective agent in the evolution of organic
species.
Ronald Fisher commented sceptically on Malthusianism as a basis for a theory of natural
selection. Fisher did not deny Malthus's basic premises, but emphasized the role of fecundity.
John Maynard Smith doubted that famine functioned as the great leveler, as portrayed by
Malthus, but he also accepted the basic premises:
"[A population] cannot increase logarithmically forever. Sooner or later, a shortage of
resources must bring the increase to a halt. It was this insight which led both Darwin and
Wallace acquired by reading... Malthus, and which led to the idea of natural selection."
5.4. Population Growth and Economic Development
The relationship between population growth and Economic Development has been discussed
upon and created a genuine tension among all kinds of scientists for the past several decades. For
some of them (boomsters), population growth is beneficial to development whereas for others
(doomsters), it is detrimental.
For Boomsters, population growth stimulates economic development and people will find a
magical formula whereby everybody is better off in the future and will all live happily forever.
Their idea contrasts Malthusian‟ point of view, that population growth outstrips the food supply
based on the fact that food production has outpaced population growth over more than 200 years.
Julian Simon, one of the most prominent boomsters, thinks that policy choices oriented to
development strategies should not deliberately slow down population growth, because, according
to her, this growth on one hand is at the same time a cause and a symptom of economic
development. On the other hand, she thinks that population cannot grow indefinitely but that
people will lower their fertility when they see an advantage from doing so, which means lifting
them from poverty.
Supporting the idea of population Growth, a British agricultural economist Colin Clark stated the
following:
“Population Growth is the only force powerful enough to make such communities change
their methods, and in the long run transforms them into much more advanced and
productive societies. The world has immense physical resources for agriculture and mineral
production still unused. In industrial communities, the beneficial economic effects of large
and expanding markets are abundantly clear. The principal problems created by population
growth are not those of poverty, but of exceptionally rapid increase of wealth in certain
favoured regions of growing population, their attraction of further population by migration,
and the unmanageable spread of their cities (Clark 167: preface)”
34
Thus, it is a fundamental postulate that people will resist a lowering in their standard of living;
but in opposite, the community will now be able to exploit the opportunities for economic growth
that existed previously without being utilized. In this perspective, the history of Europe shows
that agricultural and industrial revolutions were accompanied almost universally by population
growth. On this aspect, the thesis of Esther Boserup shows that population growth is the
motivating force that brings about the clearing of uncultivated land, the draining of swamps, the
development of new crops, fertilizers and irrigation techniques (linked to agricultural revolution)
but also about the invention of new technologies (linked to modernisation)…
Doomsters are neo-Malthusians. According to them, continued population growth will lead to
certain economic and environmental collapse (carrying capacity of ecosystems). Thus, population
control must be a part of any development strategy for its success. Their attention is focused
mainly on the problem of providing sufficient food and other resources to meet the needs of a
growing world population. This idea comes from the fact that for many occasions, experience has
shown that when a particular group reached a stage where it was difficult or impossible to supply
all the subsistence needs of the community; such situations have often been important motivating
factors behind migrations. We should mention Ireland in the 19th century where some 800 000
people left the country in the space of only five years or so after the potato crop failures of the
1840. In addition to this, many people may die from hunger and starvation-diseases related to
environmental degradation when inadequate food supplies and environmental protection policies
are available, as happened in India and are still happening in Ethiopia and several other African
countries. This motivated neo-Malthusians (doomsters) to conclude that economic development
is hindered by rapid population growth. On their point of view, for an economy, the addition of
people involves expenses (demographic overhead-beyond demographic momentum) in terms of
feeding, clothing, sheltering, education, other goods and services for those people, and if
demographic overhead exceeds national income, disaster will come. So many underdeveloped
countries are confronted to the demographic overhead surpassing the level of national income
and therefore, this leads to the accumulation of loans-dependence on rich countries. In Nigeria
for instance, the population increased from 71 million to 12.3 million people between 1980 and
2000. The average annual rate of population growth reached 2.7 percent per year. At the same
time, Nigeria‟s economy was also growing at a rate of 2.3 per year (almost the same rate as most
European countries between 1980 and 1992) (World Bank report-1994a). As an outcome of this
disproportion between the population growth rate and the economic growth, the per capita gross
national product was decreasing along this time period and thereafter, the average income per
person was worse off. In addition to this, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) estimates
a growing number of people without adequate access to food, this leading to a growing number of
children dying from malnutrition (FAO 2002 report quoted by J.R. Weeks 2005: 506). In
modernised countries, the decrease of the population growth rate is a consequence of the
adoption of the beneath new life styles and values:
- In modern sentiment, a child is a heavy burden to his/her parents
- Freedom is a main motive for the modern society and a child is considered as a barrier to
the enjoyment of life
- A delay in marriage and childbearing among women
- The encouragement of some anti-procreation practices like abortion, divorce, infanticide,
euthanasia contributed to the reduction of the fertility in developed countries
Most of western countries have reached a replacement level of fertility and even below with an
average total fertility rate ranging from 1.7 up to 2.1 per woman because of modernist values.
Today, countries that initiated antinatalist doctrines are facing serious harassment related to
aging and to the overpopulation of immigrants…Some of these countries like France (one of the
first European countries to encourage antinatalism) came back to pronatalism by allocating a big
rate of its budget to support new born and their parents.
35
In under-developed countries, the growth of the population remains high since the introduction
of modern medical practices with western occupants. The high rate of population growth is again
caused by ignorance and conservatism of traditional values (considering a child like wealth or
security) and some leaders of under-developed countries rejected the pressure of developed
countries (through development partnerships and International Organisations- World Bank,
UNDP, IMF) to reduce the number of children per family and considered the idea of family
planning as genocidal for these nations whereas for developed countries, the high fertility in poor
countries constitutes a serious threat given that globalisation dispatches the population increase
problems among poor and rich countries at the same time. In most of under-developed countries,
the number of children per woman goes up to 7.2 (the case of Somalia in 2003), this explaining
the growing in numbers of populations in these areas compared to developed countries. This map
gives an insight on differences related to the number of children per woman and hence to the size
of populations in these areas.

Module: Introduction To Demography

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Module: INTRODUCTION TO DEMOGRAPHY

===== Hand Book =====

Academic Year 2019 – 2020

I. WORLD POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

However, broad general patterns of populations on Earth can still be understood.

1.2. Trends in World Population Distribution

Table 2. Twenty most populated countries in 1950, 2013, 2050

1. China 563 1. China 1357 1. India 165

1.3. Brief overview on the World Population Growth

Table 3: Evolution of world population (in billion)

Table 4: World population growth (past and future estimations)

Period Annual increase Share (in %) of developing Population growth

Table 5: Evolution of the world population by region, 1900 to 2050

Table 6. Disparities in the World Population Growth

Table 7. Some indices of Population Age structure in 2013

Country or region Median Young index Old index (65 Dependence

Developed countries 33,6 16 17 50,2

II. POPULATION GROWTH

The demographic balancing equation expresses this as follows:

Population growth = natural increase plus net migration

Or Population growth = (births – deaths + (arrivals – departures)

(Pt - Po) = (births – deaths) + (arrivals-departures) and Pt can be expressed as

Pt = Po + (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)

r = (b - d) + (i - e) Where b, d, i and e are respectively crude births rate, crude deaths

Example: Given p = rate calculated on 120 days, then r = p * 365

r = Pt+1 – Pt or Pt+1 = Pt (1+r)

Pt+2 = Pt+1 (1+r)

Pt+2 = Pt (1+r) (1+r) = Pt (1+r)2 , then:

a. Population growth rate (r)

Below is the doubling time for some growth rates:

Population growth rate % 0,1 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4

c. Determination of a period (in years) required for the present population po to

2.3. Trends of the Rwandan population

a. Evolution of Rwanda population, 1934 to 2012

Year Population Year Population

Table: Evolution of population growth rate, 1934 et 1990

Period Rate (%) Period Rate (%)

Table : Population density in Rwanda, 1934 et 2002

Year Population density

b. Trends in demographic indicators

Table Evolution of demographic indicators, 1934-2002

Year Crude Birth Total fertility Crude Death q0 5q0

III. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

By "model" we mean that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these

The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

Birth Rate: 36 per thousand

Birth Rate: 13 per thousand

Birth Rate: 12 per thousand

Birth Rate: 9 per thousand

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

3.1 Epidemiological transition

In demography and medical geography, epidemiological transition is a phase of development

3.2. Migration Transition Model: Zelinsky Model

IV. POPULATION COMPOSITION

4.1. Population pyramid

4. 2. Types of population pyramid

Population pyramids for 4 stages of the demographic transition model

4.3. Youth bulge

4.4. Use of population pyramids

Country/Region Total Male Female

4.5. Sex Ratio