Seismic fragility

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What is seismic fragility?

• Expresses the conditional probability of a particular structural

component/system exceeding a certain damage state /limit state
when subjected to given measure of ground motion intensity.

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Why do we need fragility curve?

• Seismic performance evaluation of existing system (to access

functionality).
• Determine seismic performance of new system (optimize design).
• To access the efficiency of some new intervention on existing system.
• In seismic damage and loss estimation studies.

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How do we obtain fragility curve for a system?

1. Expert-judgement fragility
2. Empirical fragility
✓ by post earthquake assessment
3. Analytical fragility
Any of the methods can be used:
✓ Elastic spectral response
✓ Non-linear static analysis/Capacity spectrum method
✓ Non-linear dynamic analysis

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 Our interest: Component fragility
• can be obtained using laboratory testing
• Provision in FEMA p-58-11

: median of the demand

: uncertainty in actual value of demand
• Testing a component isolated from in-situ condition
• Imperfect simulation of boundary condition
• Variability in configuration
• Loading history cannot replicate actual loading
• Variability in material properties

1. FEMA, P. (2012). Seismic performance assessment of buildings. California: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 108. 5
…component fragility

= 2𝑟 + 2𝑢

• r: represents variability in test data from which the fragility parameters are
determined (to be calculated)

• u: represents uncertainty that the test represent actual condition of loading and
available data are adequate sample size to accurately represent true random
variability (=0.25 or 0.10 depending on loading condition and number of
specimen )

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…component fragility
Procedure to calculate component fragility
(Based on available data)

1. Actual demand data

2. Bounding demand data
3. Capable demand data
4. Derivation
5. Expert opinion

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…component fragility
Procedure to calculate component fragility
(Based on available data)
(eg: Suppose our damage state of interest is 3mm residual crack width and we have
5 specimens)
1. Actual demand data (all 5 specimens had residual crack>3mm at some point of test)
2. Bounding demand data (less than 5 specimens had residual crack>3mm at some
point of test)
3. Capable demand data (NO specimens had residual crack>3mm)
4. Derivation
5. Expert opinion

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…component fragility
Actual demand data
Median value of demand at which damage state is likely to initiate:
1 𝑀
σ ln 𝑑𝑖
=𝑒 𝑀 𝑖=1

Value of random dispersion in test data:

𝑀 2
1 𝑑𝑖
𝑟 = ෍(ln
𝑀−1 
𝑖=1

Dispersion representing uncertainty in loading and sample size:

𝛽𝑢 = 0.25 (𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑀 ≤ 5)
Total dispersion:
𝛽= 𝛽𝑟2 + 𝛽𝑢2
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…component fragility….Actual demand data

Fragility function

𝑑
ln
𝜃𝑖
𝐹𝑖 𝑑 = 𝜙
𝛽𝑖

where,  denotes standard normal cumulative distribution function.

obtained fragility parameters should be tested using goodness of fit test to be deemed
acceptable.

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