October 27, 2021

McAuliffe and Youngkin deadlocked in Virginia governor race;

contests for lieutenant governor and attorney general also tied;
Republican likely voters’ enthusiasm advantage surges in October
Summary of Key Findings
1. Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has a razor-thin lead over
Republican Glenn Youngkin, 49% to 48%, among likely voters,
which is within the survey’s margin of error (+/- 3.5%). In this
virtual tie, third-party candidate Princess Blanding 1% share of the
vote looms larger, with another 1% undecided.

2. Seeking a third term, Attorney General Mark Herring narrowly

leads Republican Jason Miyares 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided.

3. For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala has a 1-point lead

over Republican Winsome Sears, 49% to 48%, with 4% undecided.

4. Republican likely voters are significantly more enthusiastic about

voting in this election than Democratic likely voters (80% to 65%
very enthusiastic), an advantage that has surged 9 points since the
October 8 Wason Center survey.

For further information, contact:

Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo rebecca.bromleytrujillo@cnu.edu O: (757) 594-9140
Research Director @becky_btru M: (269) 598-5008
Dr. Quentin Kidd qkidd@cnu.edu O: (757) 594-8499
Academic Director @QuentinKidd M: (757) 775-6932
Analysis
With a week to go, Virginia’s statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor and
attorney general are tied, according to our survey of likely voters in the Nov. 2 general
election. Since we polled these races in early October, Democratic leads have all but
disappeared. Independent voters continue to favor all three Republican candidates,
while partisans on both sides are locking into position for their party’s candidates. We
see a large gender gap emerging, with male voters shifting towards Republican
candidates and women moving towards Democratic candidates. As Election Day
nears, Republicans are increasingly more enthusiastic about voting, with 80% of
Republican likely voters indicating they are very enthusiastic, compared to 65% of
Democrats. That 15-point enthusiasm advantage was only 6 points in our October 8
survey (61% to 55%). Regionally, the hotly contested Richmond/Central region has
tilted significantly in Republicans’ favor since our last survey, going from a 3-point
lead to a 12-point lead (55% to 43%) at the top of the ticket.
Governor: Democrat Terry McAuliffe maintains a narrow 1-point lead against
Republican Glenn Youngkin, 49% to 48%, in the race for governor. His lead is well
within this survey’s margin of error of +/- 3.5% and this represents a continued
tightening in the race. As shown in the figure below, McAuliffe began the election season
in late August with a 9-point lead that shrank to 4 points in early October and now
stands at 1 point. With McAuliffe and Youngkin now in a virtual tie, third-party
candidate Princess Blanding’s 1% share of the vote looms larger.
Independent voters largely favor Youngkin, 51% to 44%. Youngkin’s support within
his own party has also increased significantly since our last poll to 97% (from 90%).
Youngkin’s support is currently driven by white voters (58% to 39%), male voters
(56% to 42%) and those from the South/Southwest region (65% to 33%).
Former Governor McAuliffe has maintained his overall support at 49%, as Youngkin
has gained ground among previously undecided voters. McAuliffe’s support is
strongest among women (56% to 41%), Black voters (93% to 7%), voters age 44 and
younger (51% to 46%) and voters in the Northern Virginia region (61% to 36%).
McAuliffe has also solidified his support among Democratic voters, with 98% support
(compared to 92% in early October).
“McAuliffe is facing strong headwinds in a state that has historically selected
governors from the party not in the White House and with a Democratic president
whose approval rating is underwater,” said Wason Center Research Director Dr.
Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo. “Republican voters also appear hungrier for a win and
increasingly see a chance to take a statewide race for the first time since 2009.”
Lieutenant governor: The lieutenant governor’s race is also a statistical tie, with
Democratic Del. Hala Ayala leading former Republican Del. Winsome Sears by 1 point
(49% to 48%), with 3% undecided. With Sears’s results tracking Youngkin’s closely
across all demographics and regions, the lieutenant governor’s race falls within this
survey’s margin of error (+/- 3.5%).
Since our October 8 poll, Sears has gained 7 points among Republicans (from 87% to
94%). Ayala shows similar gains among Democrats, expanding her support by 9 points
since early October (88% to 97%). Overall, Ayala’s support is driven primarily by voters
age 44 and younger (52% to 46%), Black voters (91% to 7%), women (56% to 40%), and
an advantage in Northern Virginia (60%-39%). Sears’ strongest support comes from
white voters (57% to 40%), Independents (53% to 43%), and voters in the
South/Southwest region (64% to 33%).
Attorney general: Seeking a third term as attorney general, Democratic incumbent
Mark Herring narrowly leads Republican Del. Jason Miyares, 48% to 47%, with 5%
undecided. This race has tightened since early October, when Herring led by 6 points
(49% to 43%). Miyares has a 5-point lead among Independents (49% to 44%) while
both candidates have shored up their respective bases since our last poll. Miyares has
support from 95% of Republicans while Herring holds 96% of Democrats. Herring
continues to have support among the conventional Democratic base of women (54% to
40%) and Black voters (85% to 9%). Younger voters give modest support for Herring
(48% to 45%), though he has lost some ground among this voting group since our last
poll, dropping from 53% support. Miyares shows an advantage over Herring among
white voters (56% to 40%) and voters in the South/Southwest region (64% to 34%).
Q2: And how enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the elections this fall? Would you say you are…

All

Rep

Dem

Ind
Very Enthusiastic 68 80 65 62
Somewhat Enthusiastic 22 15 26 24
Less Enthusiastic 6 3 6 6
Not Enthusiastic 3 1 1 7
Don’t Know 1 0 2 1

Q3: :Thinking about the election for governor… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE: “Glenn Youngkin, the Republican, Terry McAuliffe, the Democrat, or Princess Blanding, the
Liberation Party”], or if you’ve already voted who did you vote for? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS
UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”, “DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are
you leaning toward right now?
Rep

Dem

Ind

Male

Female

White

Black

18-44

45 +

NoVa

Rich/Central

HR/East

South/SW
All

Glenn Youngkin 48 97 2 51 56 41 58 7 46 49 36 55 45 65
Terry McAuliffe 49 2 98 44 42 56 39 93 51 49 61 43 53 33
Princess Blanding 1 0 0 2 2 1 2 0 2 1 2 1 1 0
Undecided/DK (vol) 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 2

Q4: Thinking about the election for lieutenant governor… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE: “Winsome Sears, the Republican, or Hala Ayala, the Democrat”], or if you’ve already voted
who did you vote for? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”,
“DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are you leaning toward right now?
Rep

Dem

Ind

Male

Female

White

Black

18-44

45 +

NoVa

Rich/Central

HR/East

South/SW
All

Winsome Sears 48 94 2 53 56 40 57 7 46 48 39 53 42 64
Hala Ayala 49 3 97 43 41 56 40 91 52 48 60 42 54 33
Undecided/DK (vol) 3 4 1 4 3 4 4 3 2 4 2 5 4 3

Q5: Thinking about the election for attorney general… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for
[RANDOMIZE: “Jason Miyares, the Republican, or Mark Herring, the Democrat”], or if you’ve already voted
who did you vote for? [INTERVIEWER: IF RESPONDENT IS UNSURE (“DON’T KNOW”,
“DEPENDS”, “NOT SURE”, ETC.) PROBE ONCE WITH: Which one are you leaning toward right now?
Rep

Dem

Ind

Male

Female

White

Black

18-44

45 +

NoVa

Rich/Central

HR/East

South/SW
All

Jason Miyares 47 95 3 49 54 40 56 9 45 48 35 54 44 64
Mark Herring 48 2 96 44 43 54 40 85 48 48 61 42 49 34
Undecided/DK (vol) 5 3 2 8 3 6 4 6 7 4 4 4 8 3
Demographics Full Survey n=944

EDUC: Could you tell me the highest level of school SEX:

or college you had the opportunity to complete:
Male 49
High school or less 49 Female 51
College or more 51
AGE: (Recorded as exact year of birth)
HISPANIC: Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic
or Latino? 18-24 3
25-34 10
Yes 3 35-44 17
No 94 45-54 14
55 & older 56
RACE: Do you consider yourself to be:
INCOME: And, just for statistical purposes, in which
White 69 of the following categories does your family income
Black or African American 20 fall?
Other 11
Under $25,000 5
IDEOL: When it comes to your ideology, would you $25-$49,999 8
consider yourself to be a… $50-$74,999 15
$75-$99,999 13
Very conservative 13 $100,000-$149,999 19
Conservative 27 Over $150,000 21
Moderate 33 Dk/ref (vol) 20
Liberal 16
Very liberal 7 CELL/LANDLINE
Dk/ref(vol) 4
Cell 53
PARTYID: In politics today, do you generally Landline 47
consider yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat, or
an Independent? REGION

Democrat 34 Northern 33
Republican 30 Richmond-Central 23
Independent 32 Hampton Roads-East 24
No Preference (vol) 2 South/Southwest/West 2
Other Party (vol) 1
Dk/Ref (vol) 2

PARTYLN [among Independents/No Pref]

Lean Republican 46
Lean Democrat 34
Independent 10
Dk/ref (vol) 10
How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 944 interviews of registered Virginia voters who are likely
general election voters, including 446 on landline and 498 on cell phone, conducted October 17-25,
2021. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general
elections or is newly registered in the last 12 months and indicates they are enthusiastic and plan to
vote (or already have) in the upcoming November 2 election. The margin of error for the whole
survey is +/-3.5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a
topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is
somewhere between 46.5% and 53.5%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error
margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.2 in this survey.
The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and
takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In
addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question
wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The response rate
(AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 11%. Five callbacks were employed in the
fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Civic
Leadership survey research lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are
weighted using an iterative weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as
closely as possible the population of Virginia’s November 2, 2021 electorate. Parameters for the
weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census, 2017 and 2019 American Community
Survey, and data from the last eight election exit polls in Virginia.