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    Tutorial 5

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    Phan Như
    This document introduces several concepts in probability, including: 1) Calculating the expected net winnings of a game involving rolling dice and potential prize money. Whether you would want to play depends on how many times you can play. 2) Finding the expectation, variance, and probability distribution of random variables. 3) Determining the variance and expected winnings of a dice game where players are paid the difference in scores. Fixing the dice outcomes can increase expected winnings. 4) Solving probability problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, expectations, variances, and medians. 5) Considering conditional probability mass functions, expectations, and variances in examples involving serv

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    Tutorial 5

    Uploaded by

    Phan Như
    515 views2 pages
    This document introduces several concepts in probability, including: 1) Calculating the expected net winnings of a game involving rolling dice and potential prize money. Whether you would want to play depends on how many times you can play. 2) Finding the expectation, variance, and probability distribution of random variables. 3) Determining the variance and expected winnings of a dice game where players are paid the difference in scores. Fixing the dice outcomes can increase expected winnings. 4) Solving probability problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, expectations, variances, and medians. 5) Considering conditional probability mass functions, expectations, and variances in examples involving serv

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    Profitability tutorial session

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    This document introduces several concepts in probability, including: 1) Calculating the expected net winnings of a game involving rolling dice and potential prize money. Whether you would want to play depends on how many times you can play. 2) Finding the expectation, variance, and probability distribution of random variables. 3) Determining the variance and expected winnings of a dice game where players are paid the difference in scores. Fixing the dice outcomes can increase expected winnings. 4) Solving probability problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, expectations, variances, and medians. 5) Considering conditional probability mass functions, expectations, and variances in examples involving serv

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    515 views2 pages

    Tutorial 5

    Uploaded by

    Phan Như
    This document introduces several concepts in probability, including: 1) Calculating the expected net winnings of a game involving rolling dice and potential prize money. Whether you would want to play depends on how many times you can play. 2) Finding the expectation, variance, and probability distribution of random variables. 3) Determining the variance and expected winnings of a dice game where players are paid the difference in scores. Fixing the dice outcomes can increase expected winnings. 4) Solving probability problems involving probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions, expectations, variances, and medians. 5) Considering conditional probability mass functions, expectations, and variances in examples involving serv

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    of 2

    Introduction to Probability

    Tutorial 5

    Week 6

    1. A players pays $1 to play a game where three fair dice are rolled. If three 6s are obtained, the player

    wins $500. Otherwise the player wins nothing. What are the expected net winnings of this game?

    Would you want to play this game? Does your answer depend upon how many times you can play

    the game?

    2. Suppose that the random variable X takes the values -2, 1, 4 and 6 with probability values 1/3, 1/6,
    1/3 and 1/6 respectively.

    (a) Find the expectation of X.


    (b) Find the variance of X using the formula

    Var(X) = E((X − E(X))2 ).

    (c) Find the variance of X using the formula

    Var(X) = E(X 2 ) − (E(X))2 .

    3. Suppose that you are organizing the game described in slide 7 of Lecture 9, where you charge players

    $2 to roll two dice, and then you pay them the dierence in the score.

    (a) What is the variance in your prot from each game? If you are playing a game in which you

    have positive expected winnings, would you prefer a small or a large variance in the winnings?

    (b) If you x the dice so that each die has a probability of 0.2 of scoring a 3 and equal probability

    of 0.16 of scoring the other ve numbers, do your expected winnings increase beyond 6 cents

    per game? Is it a surprise?

    √
    4. A random variable X has a probability density function f (x) = A/ x for 3 ≤ x ≤ 4.

    (a) What is the value of A?


    (b) What is the cumulative distribution function of X?
    (c) What is the expected value of X?
    (d) What is the standard deviation of X?
    (e) What is the median of X?

    5. Consider the Air Conditioner Maintenance Example in Lecture 10.

    (a) Suppose that a location has only one air conditioner that needs servicing. What is the

    conditional probability mass function of the service time required?

    What are the conditional expectation and standard deviation of the service time?

    1
    (b) Suppose that a location requires a service time of 2 hours. What is the conditional probability

    mass function of the number of air conditioner units serviced?

    What are the conditional expectation and standard deviation of the number of air conditioner

    units serviced?

    6. Do the exercise on Slide 17 of Lecture 10.

    7. Two safety inspectors inspect a new building and assign it a safety score" of 1, 2, 3, or 4. Suppose

    that the random variable X is the score assigned by the rst inspector and the random variable Y
    is the score assigned by the second inspector, and that they have a joint probability mass function

    given below.

    (a) What is the probability that both inspectors assign the same safety score?

    (b) What is the probability that the second inspector assigns a higher safety score than the rst

    inspector?

    (c) What are the marginal probability mass function, expectation, and variance of the score

    assigned by the rst inspector?

    (d) What are the marginal probability mass function, expectation, and variance of the score

    assigned by the second inspector?

    (e) Are the scores assigned by the two inspectors independent of each other? Would you expect

    them to be independent? How would you interpret the situation if they were independent?

    (f ) If the rst inspector assigns a score of 3, what is the conditional probability mass function of

    the score assigned by the second inspector?

    (g) What is the covariance of the scores assigned by the two inspectors?

    (h) What is the correlation between the scores assigned by the two inspectors? If you are respon-

    sible for training the safety inspectors to perform proper safety evaluations of buildings, what

    correlation value would you like there to be between the scores of two safety inspectors?

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