ISRM International Symposium 2008

5th Asian Rock Mechanics Symposium (ARMS5), 24-26 November 2008 Tehran, Iran

THE FUTURE FOR ROCK MECHANICS AND THE ISRM

J. A. Hudson1, 2
1
Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine,
South Kensington, London SW7 2AZ, UK
2
President, International Society for Rock Mechanics
(e-mail: john.a.hudson@gmail.com)

Abstract
The future for rock mechanics and the International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM) is considered by assessing what has
been achieved in the first 50 years of rock mechanics and hence identifying some of the major remaining unsolved problems. By
noting the direction that technology might take in the future, the possibilities for future rock mechanics developments are also
considered. The near-future encompasses the current ISRM modernization programme that the Board is implementing and
developments that are clear from known technology. The further-future is predicted from likely technological innovations and
their implications for rock mechanics. Additionally, the purpose, nature and potential evolution of professional societies such as
the ISRM are briefly discussed. The emphasis in this paper is on rock mechanics as it supports rock engineering, the subjects
covered being geology, rock stress, intact rock, rock fractures, water flow, engineering activities and numerical modeling.
Keywords: Rock Mechanics; Achievements; Fundamentals; Technological Future; Coupled Modelling.

1. Introduction
It is important for our subject of rock mechanics “Consider the past,
and its application to rock engineering that we diagnose the present,
consider the directions that are likely to be taken foretell the future.”
in the future. Indeed, this is a suitable time for
So, in this paper, and based on what has been
such speculation as the 50-year anniversary of
achieved in the past (essentially over the last 50
the founding of the ISRM is due in 2012, with
years), let us identify some of the major
the celebrations beginning at the 2011 ISRM
remaining problems that have not yet been
Congress in Beijing. Additionally, this year,
solved. This leads naturally to the consideration
2008, is the centenary of Leopold Müller’s birth,
of which technological developments are likely
the founder and first President of the ISRM.
in the future and hence whether these will enable
the remaining problems to be solved. In terms of
the ISRM, there is currently a major
modernisation underway which will, to some
extent, enable a prediction of the near future for
the ISRM. However, the far future for the ISRM
will also be discussed because this encompasses
interesting questions relating to the nature of
individual and group interactions and the storage
and dissemination of corporate knowledge.

Fig. 1. Hippocrates (460-377 BC). 2. Summarising the Current Rock

Mechanics Knowledge and Capabilities
The rock mechanics knowledge and capabilities
Hippocrates’ method for predicting the future
have been summarized in encyclopaedic form
was to:
via the 4407 page compendium “Comprehensive

105
Rock Engineering” which was produced by
Elsevier in 1995 [1]. The five volumes cover the
subjects of:
1. Fundamentals
2. Analysis and Design Methods
3. Rock Testing and Site Characterisation
4. Excavation, Support and Monitoring
5. Surface and Underground Case Histories.
Although it is now 13 years after this
compendium was published and advances have
been made in many areas, the essence of the
state-of-the-art remains similar.
3. Unsolved Problems in Rock Mechanics
Despite the major progress that has been made in
rock mechanics and rock engineering over the
last 50 years, there are still outstanding
problems. In fact, Leopold Muller’s motivation
for founding the ISRM was encapsulated in his
May 1962 comment, “We don’t know the rock
mass strength. That is why we need an
International Society.” However, in many cases
we still have problems estimating the rock mass
strength!
In this Section, some of the major unsolved
problems in rock mechanics will be outlined.
These occur under the subject headings of
• Geology
• Rock stress
• Intact rock
• Fractures
• Water flow
• Modelling
Within each of these secondary headings,
italicized text is included concerning the
likelihood that these problems will be solved in
the near future.
3.1. Geology
The roles of geology, particularly structural
geology, and rock mechanics for engineering are
highlighted in Fig. 2.
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Structural geology
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
Interpretation of natural Prediction of natural
processes that have geohazards, such as
created the rock volcanic eruptions,
structures we see today earthquakes, landslips
Interpretation of past Prediction of the rock
engineering practice: mass response to
past successes, and engineering
past failures perturbations
Rock mechanics and rock engineering
Fig. 2. Similarities in the roles of structural geology and
rock mechanics for engineering.
In both cases, we are interested in deciphering
the mechanisms that led to the current
circumstances and in predicting what will
happen in the future. In fact, the quintessence of
rock mechanics is predicting the future. We wish
to predict what will happen in the future so that
rock engineering designs are appropriate. This
entails predicting, for example, what will happen
if a tunnel is driven in a certain direction and
depth as opposed to other directions and depths.
Because the engineered structure will be
founded on or contained within a rock mass, it is
essential to have an adequate understanding of
the geological circumstances relating to the host
rock, yet the engineer will be sorely stretched
without expert geological advice in obtaining the
correct data for modeling and identifying the
hazards that may accompany certain geological
formations. For example, many rock mechanics
modeling exercises require a knowledge of the
rock fractures, but this may be difficult to obtain.
The three photographs in Figs. 3-5 illustrate
three different types of fracturing – all observed
in close proximity within the same Lower
Middle Coal Measures strata in South Wales,
UK.

Fig. 3. Orthogonal fracturing in the Coal Measures strata,
South Wales, UK (~ 1 m wide sample).
Fig. 4. More irregular fracturing in the Coal Measures
strata, South Wales, UK (~ 1 m wide sample).
Fig. 5. Even more irregular fracturing in the Coal
Measures strata, South Wales, UK (~ 1 m wide sample).
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Needless to say, significant help can be given to
the rock mechanics modeler and designer in
dealing with these types of fracture networks by
a geologist who is familiar with the host rock
circumstances. Illustrations of the value of
structural geology interpretations can be seen in
Price and Cosgrove [2].
However, the major unsolved problem in this
context is that often either a geologist is not
consulted or the geologist is not intimately
involved with the rock mechanics studies so that
the advice is only received remotely, e.g. through
some form of standardized site investigation.
This is a management problem but one that we
must address and one that ought to be easy to
solve.
3.2. Rock Stress
Unlike other forms of engineering, in
underground rock engineering the primary
activity is to remove material from a pre-loaded
rock mass, i.e. rather than fabricating
components and then assembling them, as in
other forms of engineering. This means that we
need to estimate the natural stress state existing
in the rock mass – both for basic considerations
of the intensity of loading and as boundary
condition input to numerical modeling.
Rock stress estimation is one of the most
intractable problems that we have to face. Stress
is a tensor quantity which requires six
independent pieces of information; measuring
rock stress is difficult; and the rock stress may
vary considerable at all scales, mainly through
the various types of fracturing inherent in the
different rock types.
A Special Issue of the International Journal of
Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences (Vol. 40,
Issues 7-8, 2003) was devoted to rock stress
estimation. This Special Issue contained the four
new ISRM Suggested Methods on rock stress
estimation and 17 supporting papers describing
various aspects of rock stress and rock stress
estimation campaigns. A summary of the
contents of these 17 papers in eight words is:
“Rock stress estimation is not an easy task.” The
actual measurement is a problem and the stress
varies. Principal Stress Magnitude (MPa)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Magnitude (MPa)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0
0 σ1
σ1 σ2
σ2 50 σ3
200 σ3

Sum of Principal Stress Magnitudes (MPa)

100
400
Depth Below Surface (m)

600 150

800 200

1000
250
σ1σ /1 /σσ2 2≈≈1.5
1.5

σ 2 / σ 3 ≈ 1.5
σ2σ / /σσ3 ≈≈1.5
1 3 2.3
1200 σ1 / σ3 ≈ 2.3
300

Fig. 7. Principal stress data plotted versus the first stress

invariant (the sum of the three principal stresses) for
Fig. 6. Principal stress data plotted versus depth for
Western Australia (from Lee [3]).
Western Australia (from Lee [3]).
In addition to the now more coherent principal
However, recent developments in presenting
stress distribution, it is evident that there are
the stress information have improved the
ratios between the principal stresses. Lee [3]
situation. Lee [3] has shown that plotting each
found the same ratios between the principal
principal stress versus the first stress invariant
stresses in Western and Eastern Australia,
(i.e. the sum of the principal stresses) provides a
despite the different geological formations.
more coherent picture than plotting the principal
Harrison et al. [4] found similar principal stress
stresses versus depth.
ratios for stress data from Chile, Finland and the
It can be seen from Fig. 6 that the principal UK – indicating that the Earth’s crust is in a state
stress data when plotted against depth appear of limiting equilibrium.
somewhat incoherent. It is difficult to specify the
The major unsolved problems in the context
stress state at a given depth with any confidence;
of rock stress are:
indeed, there may be a suspicion that the stress
measurements have not been satisfactory. • developing a method of rapidly and reliably
estimating the six components of the rock
But compare this presentation with that in Fig.
stress tensor at a given location; and
7 where the principal stresses have been plotted
against the first stress invariant. Clearly, these • understanding variations in the stress state
stresses are forming a pattern and there is no due to the presence of fractures at various
longer any suspicion that the stress scales.
measurements were inadequate. The first problem is intractable and not likely to
be solved quickly. The second problem is

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amenable to numerical modeling studies and will
be solved relatively soon.
3.3. Intact Rock
Because it is easy to obtain and test samples of
intact rock, this subject has been studied in
greater detail than any other in rock mechanics,
and we now have a good understanding of intact
rock behavior and the relation between the type
of rock and its mechanical characteristics. Also,
through the advent of high speed, servo-
controlled testing machine in the 1970s, the full
mechanical behavior, from initial loading
through to complete disintegration of the
specimen, can be studied in detail. An example
of a complete stress-strain curve for marble is
shown in Fig. 8.
Fig. 8. Complete stress-strain curve for marble (courtesy
EPFL Laboratory, Switzerland, 2007).
Through the use of a polyaxial testing machine
with appropriate servo-control, the behavior of
intact rock can be studied in circumstances only
limited by the imagination.
Nevertheless, there are still aspects of the
intact rock requiring further study, particularly in
relation to inhomogeneity, anisotropy and time
dependency. The illustration in Fig. 9 shows how
studies of the potential failure of rock around the
periphery of an excavation is a function of both
the concentrated rock stress around the opening
and the rock strength in different directions. For
this problem, a knowledge of the rock strength as
a function of the anisotropy is required. This
applies also to the inhomogeneity of the rock and
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its time dependency.
Fig. 9. The concentrated stress around the periphery of
an underground opening is parallel to the periphery but
the anisotropy induced by foliation is in one main
direction.
So, although a great deal of work has been
conducted on the mechanical behavior of intact
rock, there are still unsolved problems relating to
its DIANE nature (Discontinuous, Inhomo-
geneous, Anisotropic and Not Elastic).
Perhaps the most surprising omission is the
general use of a failure criterion that incorporates
the three principal stresses. Despite the nature of
rock stress as a tensor with three principal
stresses, the failure criteria most commonly used
in modeling and in practice for intact rock and
rock masses are the Mohr-Coulomb and Hoek-
Brown criteria, but both of these only contain the
major and minor principal stresses – the
intermediate principal stress is not included.
In terms of solving these problems, the
inhomogeneity and anisotropy characteristics
are easily approached via testing and numerical
modeling but the issue of time dependency is
more intractable. The general use of a failure
criterion incorporating the three principal
stresses is imminent because candidate criteria
have already been suggested in the literature.
3.4. Fractures
Figs. 3-5 have already indicated the types of
fracture variation that can occur and the
importance of including a structural geologist in
rock mechanics studies has been emphasized. In
fact, it is useful to consider the spectrum of rock
Fig. 10. The types of deformation and fracturing that can
develop in rock masses, from tensile fractures through to
a pervasive ductile fabric.
fractures that can occur from a geological
viewpoint, as shown in Fig. 10. Note the remarks
in the lower horizontal band in Fig. 10, i.e. that
characterizing the undeformed rock that with a
pervasive deformed fabric is much easier than
characterizing the complex forms of rock
fracturing.
The fracture properties recommended for
measurement by the ISRM are shown in Fig. 11.
It can be seen that these fracture properties are
variable in terms of whether the measurement is
possible from a borehole core or television
image of the borehole wall. The spacing between
the fractures can be readily estimated but many
aspects, such as the fracture tracelength
(persistence) cannot.
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Fig. 11. The fracture properties recommended for
measurement by the ISRM.
In Fig. 12, Follin [5] has illustrated the limited
scales at which one can obtain fracture
information. Given the D in the DIANE nature
of the rock, the Discontinuousness, the ability to
characterize the geometry and mechanical
behavior of the fractures is essential for input to
our modeling for rock engineering design – and
to achieve Leopold Müller’s original ISRM
ambition of estimating the rock mass strength.
Fig. 12. The limited scales at which one can obtain rock
fracture information (from S. Follin of SKB, Sweden
[5]).
Thus, developing the ability to adequately
establish and chararacterise the geometry and
mechanical properties of rock fractures at a
given site is the major unsolved problem in
relation to the subject of rock fractures.
Although solving the problem of reliably
obtaining fracture information may be
considered easier than obtaining reliable stress
information for a given rock mass, there is still a
long way to go because of the multi-parameter
nature of rock fracturing and the uncertainty
related to reducing the mass of fracture data to
the quantity that can be input to numerical
models.
3.5. Permeability
Fig. 13. Idiosyncratic water flow in a fractured rock mass
(the Mountsorrel granodiorite, UK).
Following on from the need to characterize the
rock fractures is the subject of establishing the
rock mass permeability – another tensor with
three principal components. Note the white
arrow in Fig. 13 indicating the highly localized
nature of water flow in the rock mass illustrated.
For rock masses where the intact rock is
relatively impermeable, water flow and the
associated hydraulic conductivity tensor will be
dominated by the network of fractures (their
geometry, connectivity, aperture) plus the rock
stress state. Not only is the water in the heavily
fractured rock mass in Fig. 13 only exiting
through one fracture but it is exiting at specific
points along the fracture, indicating channel flow
within the fractures. Additionally, this channel
flow can change if there are any significant
fracture displacements due to engineering
activities.
Considerable advances have been made in
incorporating fracture geometries into discrete
fracture networks and establishing the flow
characteristics of the associated rock masses.
However, the problem is obtaining sufficient
accurate data on the fracture characteristics. This
is the major unsolved problem relating to rock
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mass hydraulic conductivity/permeability.
The solution to this problem is also
intractable because not only are the geometrical
fracture data required but also the
hydrogeological data, especially the fracture
apertures.
3.6. Modelling
In the early years of rock mechanics, physical
models played an important role in supporting
rock engineering design, especially for dams
located on rock masses. Also, today such
physical models can play a useful role in
establishing mechanisms and verifying
numerical models. However, the emphasis has
gradually changed to rock mass classification
methods and computer numerical modeling,
especially using discrete element methods (see
Jing and Stephansson [6]).
The major unsolved problems in the
numerical modelling area begin with developing
one model which captures all the required
variables, mechanisms and parameters, i.e. the
models relating to the separate sub-disciplines
giving way to the required all-encompassing
coupled model. It is anticipated that such a
model will include, inter alia, the following
aspects.
Geological: site geometry, lithology, fractures
Thermal: heat loads, heat flow
Hydrological: water pressures, water flow
Mechanical: rock stress, stiffness, strength
Chemical: rock and water chemistry
Engineering: effects of excavation
Currently, the separate models constructed
within separate sub-disciplines, e.g. mechanical
and hydraulic, often have to be ‘stitched
together’ – which cannot always be done
smoothly.
 firstly, by a selection of anticipated advances in
Audit
'Soft' Audit 'Hard Audit' the subject and, secondly, through the
Evaluation
modernization programme for the ISRM,
currently being implemented by the ISRM 2007-
Obtains the basic Obtains the Establishes
information for detailed whether the
2011 Board.
establishing the information on all modelling is
essence of the the procedures adequate to meet 4.1. Anticipated Developments in Rock
problem being used the objectives
Mechanics in the Near Future
Ability to state
Ability to
Ability to state
whether the
4.1.1. Improved methods of
the details of accessing/collating information
present what is modelling is
what is being
being done adequate for the
done
purpose There are many aspects of information
processing that are developing rapidly – from
Fig. 14. The technical auditing required for numerical laser capture of rock surface geometry, to
modeling used to support rock engineering design. seismic tomographic methods of rock mass
A complementary necessity is the properties, to internet databases of rock
development of methods to technically audit properties. All these are functions of the current
such a fully-coupled numerical model, and rapid technological and computer advances and
indeed existing sub-models, both concurrently there is every reason to expect that this will
during their use and subsequently when they are continue.
used for back analysis after observation of the
construction perturbation. The validation of 4.1.2. More emphasis on geophysical
numerical model inputs, operation and outputs is methods in site investigation
a particular problem in rock mechanics because As mentioned earlier, there is a fundamental
of the scale of rock masses. We can test small need to obtain more rock property information,
samples in the laboratory and we can conduct especially on the geometry and mechanical
tests in underground laboratories at specific sites properties of rock fractures. The ideal method of
but the overall problem of technically auditing non-destructive rock mass interrogation is
computer models supporting rock engineering through the also rapidly developing seismic
design in large rock masses is an unsolved and techniques, especially tomography, and the
intractable problem. associated advanced 3-D visualisation methods.
It is unlikely that the validation problem will
be solved quickly because of the need to conduct 4.1.3. More integration of subjects (e.g. fully-
large experiments. However, projects such as coupled numerical modelling)
DUSEL (Deep Underground Science and
Engineering Laboratory) presently being As also mentioned earlier, there are initiatives
developed at the Homestake Mine in South underway to enhance the degree of coupling in
Dakota, USA (e.g. www.lbl.gov/nsd/homestake) numerical models which may eventually lead to
will eventually lead to full validation checks. a Geo-Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical-Chemical-
Basic technical auditing can be implemented Biological model. Currently, the numerical
now but the final auditing with validation checks models tend to be developed separately within
will take much longer. specific subject areas, such as geology, rock
mechanics, petroleum engineering, soil
4. The Near Future mechanics, hydrogeology, etc. The future must
lie in more expansive models firmly based on
In this section, the ‘near future’ for rock thermodynamic principles with a range of
mechanics and the ISRM will be described, primary state variables and incorporating the

112
associated coupled mechanisms that hence allow
more coherent and auditable modelling to
support rock engineering and the other fields of
endeavour.
4.1.4. More international co-operation
On studying the early issues of journals, i.e.
those published in the 1960s, there were often
papers written by a single author – because it
was possible for a single person to make
significant contributions. Although this is still
possible, it is certainly more stimulating and
probably more efficient for a group of people to
tackle a given problem. Indeed, on looking at the
contents of the June 2008 issue of the
International Journal of Rock Mechanics and
Mining Sciences, one notices that all 17 of the
contributions are written by two or more authors.
This trend will definitely continue as the
facilities for national and international co-
operation continue to improve.
4.1.5. More use of neural network
‘intelligent’ computer programs
Currently, the researcher/engineer inputs the
required values into the computer, runs the
program, and evaluates the result. There is
considerable scope for augmenting this
procedure through the increased use of more
‘intelligent’ computer programs, ranging from
further development of neural network
architectures to the inclusion of ‘perception’ into
the programs. Even in the near future, it is not
beyond the realms of possibility to relay
television images of underground excavation
surfaces, e.g. the roof, and arrange for the
computer to automatically alert the user to
developing hazards and to conduct continuing
re-analyses based on new automated
displacement values.
4.1.6. Larger, deeper and longer
excavations
As the demand for materials and underground
space continues to increase, it is anticipated that
there will be larger, deeper and longer
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excavations. Currently, the largest cavern open
to the public has a span of 61 m: the Gjøvik ice
hockey stadium in Norway. How large can a
cavern be? The Kirsch solution for the stress
concentrations around a circular hole includes
neither the absolute size of the hole nor the
elastic properties of the rock. In a rock mass free
of fractures, such as can be found in the
Canadian Shield, it should be possible to
construct caverns with spans considerably larger
than 61 m. But how far can we go? A 100 m
span? A 1000 m span? No doubt the 61 m span
record will soon be broken by some
entrepreneurial group of engineers.
4.1.7. Emphasis on environmental aspects
It may appear at first sight that the construction
of underground excavations in rock is
intrinsically environmentally friendly, but it must
be remembered that any engineering activity
results in an increase in entropy. Whatever, the
order created in the engineered structure, there
will be a greater degree of disorder induced in
the surrounding environment. This is often
clearly manifested in mining operations but it is
also true for all civil engineering projects. Of
course, the disturbance can be reduced to some
extent but it cannot be avoided.
This leads to the question, “Is the exploitation
of underground space compatible with the
concept of sustainable development?” The
Bruntland 1987 definition of sustainable
development [7] is
“Development that meets the needs of the
present generation without compromising the
ability of future generations to meet their
own needs.”
Thus, when planning a new rock engineering
project, we should ask the question, “Given the
existing system (whether a virgin rock mass or a
rock mass already containing developed space),
is it acceptable to locate a new facility in the
rock mass — i.e. within the context of
sustainable development as defined above?
The whole subject of sustainable development
in rock engineering has not yet been properly
tackled in the above context but the subject
urgently needs attention.
4.1.8. Increased rate of mechanised
excavation
It is difficult to imagine how rock support can be
improved. The rock blocks can be held together
with rock bolts so that a fractured rock mass
behaves more like a monolithic continuum. A
resisting force can be induced through the use of
introduced supports. Shotcrete can be used to
provide additional resistance and to combat
deterioration of the rock surface induced by
weathering.
Conversely, overall energetic principles
indicate that mechanised excavation can be
greatly increased. In Fig. 15, the two ways that
energy is input during current methods of tunnel
construction are illustrated. When blasting, large
amounts of energy are input for a few seconds at
widely spaced intervals, e.g. eight hours. This is
represented in Fig. 16 by the narrow vertical
white bands. However, when a tunnel boring
machine (TBM) is operating, a lower level of
energy is continuously input, represented by the
lower horizontal white band. It is extraordinary
that we have only these two excavation methods
characterised by the two extreme conditions.
Blasting: large amounts of energy input
at widely spaced intervals
Energy
input
Time
Fig. 15. Energy input during blasting and the use of a
TBM.
Since there is generally no problem in
providing energy to the tunnel construction, it is
likely that new methods of excavation with
significantly improved penetration rates will be
developed, as represented by the wider
horizontal band in Fig. 15. This may be by some
combination of blasting and a TBM or by some
entirely new procedure. The point is that the
potential is there.
4.2. Current Modernization of the ISRM
For the ISRM to have any purpose, it must
provide a benefit to the members. Accordingly, it
must continually develop to provide the required
benefits in our changing world. The new Board
of ISRM, operating from 2007-2011, is currently
engaged in a modernization process to ensure
that the necessary benefits are provided. The
separate items in this modernization process are
summarized below.
4.2.1. Directly improving the benefits to
members
This has involved implementing a survey of
ISRM Members to establish what they want. The
results of the survey will be available by the time
this paper is published. Also, the availability of
downloadable publications from the ISRM
website is being increased. A database of
companies is being established. Generous
discounts to ISRM- supported events will be
provided and the exposure of the ISRM will be
improved
4.2.2. Improving the ISRM website
Much of this improvement has already been
Increasing the input
energy would enable
realised, as is evident from a website visit to
much faster www.isrm.net. The ISRM website will be the
penetration and
advance rates major medium for communicating with Members
and therefore it needs to be as comprehensive
TBM: smaller
amounts of energy
and as up-to-date as practical. Major aspects are:
• having links to various rock mechanics
input essentially
constantly
journals and publications,
• developing a digital library of ISRM
publications and others, including setting
up a database for uploading/downloading
case histories and educational material,
• having more information about Member
Countries and the ISRM in general, plus
key contact information, and
• making a clear separation between
Members and non-Members access to the
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 ISRM information.
4.2.3. Enhancing the availability of
literature
The key objective is to make relevant literature
more accessible to ISRM Members through
• developing and maintaining a digital library
of downloadable material (a hardcopy
library already exists),
• establishing areas of the digital library for
different kinds of documents, e.g. Müller
Lecture, Manuel Rocha Prize thesis, books,
papers, National Group publications,
educational material, etc.,
• the ISRM Suggested Methods are already
downloadable and the hard copy ‘Blue
Book’ which contains all the ISRM
Suggested Methods produced from 1974-
2006 is being promoted.
4.2.4. Identifying major technical issues
The ISRM should identify the major issues in
rock mechanics and rock engineering which
require clarification and/or research. This can
start with a case example issue: e.g., the long
term strength of hard rock in the engineering
design of nuclear waste repositories. How do we
in general establish the long-term strength of
rock to be used in engineering design?
Expert groups should be convened for
identifying and studying such technical issues,
e.g. through ISRM Commissions, Speciality
Workshops in association with symposia, Invited
Workshops – leading to an ISRM document
summarising the problem and solution. The
ISRM then acts as a point of contact for the
relevant specialists.
4.2.5. Focussing the content of ISRM
international symposia and conferences
The ISRM Board should play a major role in
ensuring that international symposia and
conferences have relevant and excellent
technical content. A Guidebook is being
produced to outline the associated procedures. A
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member of the ISRM Board should be on the
Organising Committee of each
symposium/conference to ensure that the
Guidebook procedures are implemented – which
will include both general principles and items
specific to the meeting. An example of the latter
is the start of the celebrations of the 50th
Anniversary of the ISRM at the Beijing
Congress in 2011.
4.2.6. Increasing the number of prizes
There should be a greater appreciation of the
achievements of ISRM Members. To this end,
the existing prizes will be evaluated and the
number of awards will be increased. Currently
the ISRM only has the 4 yearly Müller Award
and the annual Rocha Award. Additional prizes
are likely to include awards for an outstanding
contribution to the profession, for a major
accomplishment in fundamental rock mechanics,
for the best published paper each year, and
awards for the best paper at an ISRM meeting
and for the best poster at an ISRM meeting.
4.2.7. Arranging lecture tours
The ISRM has already organised two successful
lecture tours to China and there is the possibility
of extending this concept to other countries.
4.2.8. Interacting with other Societies
The advantages of interacting with other
researchers and engineers has already been
mentioned in Sections 4.1.3 on coupled models
and 4.1.4 on international co-operation. The
same applies to increasing the co-operation with
other societies. For example, the ISRM has a co-
operation agreement with the International
Tunnelling Association which is proving fruitful.
Additionally, cross promotion of websites and
events is being developed, together with
interaction between similar commissions and
interest groups.
4.2.9. Improving communication with
members
The best methods of communicating with the
ISRM members are being studied. The website
will be the main day-to-day method of
communicating with members and will be
upgraded continuously. A digital newsletter is
now being sent to members regularly. A hard
copy version of the ISRM News Journal is being
produced annually.
5. Beyond the Near Future
As described already, it is possible to make
predictions for the near future, but what is likely
to happen in the longer term, beyond the near
future? The technological developments will no
doubt be dramatic and possibly difficult for us to
comprehend now.
5.1. Future Computing Power
Now
All human brains
One human brain
One mouse brain
One insect brain
Fig. 16. Anticipated development in computing power to
the year 2100.
In Fig. 16, one prediction for the anticipated
development in computing power is presented.
The x-axis is the year and the y-axis is the
computing power in calculations per second that
can be bought for $1000. At this time, we are
somewhere between the computing power of an
insect brain and a mouse brain that can be
bought for $1000. However, somewhere
between 2020 and 2040, we will be able to buy
116
the computing power of a human brain for $1000
and about 2050 this amount of money will
purchase the computing power of all human
brains in the world. These predictions may not
be completely accurate but the trend is certainly
likely to be. What could we do with such
massive computing power and how could it
assist rock mechanics?
5.2. Potential Long-Term Developments
5.2.1. Computers as authors
Already most published papers are available
online. Microsoft and Google are currently
enabling books from major libraries to be
available on the Internet. In the long-term, all
publications will be available online. It will then
be possible for computer robots to automatically
search all literature relevant to a given profile.
Computers could then compile papers about the
cumulative advances in rock mechanics via all
the papers and information generated each year.
If computers become authors, how should they
be identified, or identify themselves? Will we be
able to tell if the author is human or a computer?
5.2.2. Computers as rock engineering
designers
If computers are monitoring construction
experiences and already have installed or can
themselves write fully coupled programs, will
the computers be able to design rock engineering
projects on their own? It is tempting to say that
human input will always be required but will this
actually be so? — certainly in the near-future but
not necessarily in the long-term future.
5.2.3. Internet conferences
In the long-term future, it will be an option
whether we attend a conference physically or
electronically. Some people will wish to attend
physically but, with more and more pressure on
everyone’s time, the electronic attendance will
be preferred by many others. Electronic
conferences have many advantages, not least of
which is that one could attend many more
conferences, e.g. one every Monday morning.
The Powerpoint presentations and pdfs of papers
would be instantly available. One could talk
through the computer to any other registrants.
The registration fee would be much less than
now and travel and accommodation expenses
would be eliminated.
As we change now from hard copy
conference proceedings to electronic
proceedings, many people complain about the
absence of the hard copy proceedings at the
conference but the progress is inevitable because
of the advantages of electronic proceedings.
Similarly, I see the advent and eventual switch to
electronic conferences as inevitable in the long
term.
5.2.4. Extra-terrestrial rock mechanics
For almost 50 years now, the ISRM has studied
rock mechanics on Earth – but do all the
fundamentals that we have developed also apply
on the planets? At the moment a theoretician is
required to go through the fundamentals of rock
mechanics and establish whether they all apply
‘out of this world’. The information will be
required in the longer term future for the
facilities which will be constructed beneath the
surface of asteroids and planets.
5.3. The Long-Term Future for the ISRM
Given the rapid advances in computing power
and communication systems which are expected
to continue, the long-term future for the ISRM is
difficult to predict.
On the one hand, one could predict that in a
world with an increasing information overload,
the Society will be increasingly needed to
provide clear and focused guidance to its
members on rock mechanics advances and new
capabilities as they develop.
On the other hand, one could predict that the
type of user profiling pioneered by Google will
be increasingly effective and it will only be
necessary to be individually profiled to receive
all the information that one needs in whatever
discipline and sub-discipline one happened to be,
117
and hence the Society would not then be needed.
No action can be taken now to anticipate this
longer term future – because either of the two
possibilities above could come to pass.
6. Conclusions
The intention of this paper has been to outline
the future for rock mechanics and the ISRM.
This has been done through the Hippocratic
method of considering the past, diagnosing the
present, and foretelling the future.
It was noted that the past developments had
been summarized in the 1995 compendium
“Comprehensive Rock Engineering” but that
there are still unsolved problems needing to be
tackled. The ones mentioned in this paper are as
follows.
• Ensuring that geological knowledge is
incorporated into rock mechanics studies,
both in the technical and management
senses.
• Developing better methods of measuring
and estimating the rock stress in a given
rock mass.
• Implementing the general use of a failure
criterion that includes all three principal
stresses.
• Developing better methods of establishing
and characterizing the geometry and
mechanical properties of the fractures in a
given rock mass.
• And the related problem of improving
discrete fracture network models for water
flow predictions.
• Constructing a fully coupled numerical
model that captures all the required
variables, parameters and mechanisms.
• Developing a method of auditing rock
mechanics modeling and rock engineering
design.
The predictions for the near future in rock
mechanics and the ISRM were outlined through
the anticipated developments and the current
ISRM modernization initiative. The anticipated
developments mentioned in the paper are as
follows.
• Improved methods of accessing/collating
information.
• More emphasis on geophysical methods in
site investigation.
• More integration of subjects (e.g. fully-
coupled numerical modeling).
• More international co-operation.
• More use of neural network ‘intelligent’
computer programs.
• Larger, deeper and longer excavations.
• Emphasis on environmental aspects.
• Increased rate of mechanised excavation.
The items relating to the ISRM
modernization are
• Directly improving the benefits to
members,
• Enhancing the availability of literature,
• Identifying major technical issues,
• Focusing the content of ISRM international
symposia and conferences,
• Increasing the number of prizes,
• Arranging lecture tours,
• Interacting with other Societies, and
• Improving communication with members.
In terms of the events beyond the near future,
the increase in computing power was
highlighted, together with
• Computers as authors
• Computers as rock engineering designers,
• Internet conferences, and
• Extra-terrestrial rock mechanics
Two possibilities were envisaged for the
future of the ISRM in the longer term but no
action is required now because either of these
two possibilities could prevail.
118
Acknowledgements
For their many suggestions that have supported
the current ISRM modernization programme and
which are summarized in Section 4.2, the author
is grateful to the 2007-2011 ISRM Board
Members: Claus Erichsen, Xia-Ting Feng,
Abdolhadi Ghazvinian, Alvaro Gonzalez-Garcia,
Nuno Grossmann, Luis Lamas, Francois Malan
Derek Martin, and Tony Meyers.
References
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Engineering. Pergamon Press, Elsevier. Oxford,
5 vols, 4407p.
2. Price, N.J., Cosgrove, J.W., 1990. Analysis of
Geological Structures. Cambridge University
Press, 502p.
3. Lee, M.F., 2006. In situ rock stress
measurements in Western Australia’s Yilgarn
Craton. In-situ Rock Stress: Measurement,
Interpretation and Application (Eds. M. Lu, C.C.
Li, H. Kjørholt, H. Dahle), Taylor and Francis,
London, 35-42.
4. Harrison, J.P., Hudson, J.A. & Carter, J.N.,
2007. Is there a relation between the in situ
principal stress magnitudes in rock masses?
Proceedings of the 1st Canada-US Rock
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