1 October 2021

Economics
Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker Asia

Eyeing local tourism

 Japan ended its nationwide State of Emergency on 30 Sep, Yun Liu

while Singapore has tightened restrictions to curb rising cases Economist
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
 Singapore is the first to start a national booster shot scheme, yun.liu@hsbc.com.hk
+852 2822 4297
while others have used the shots for their high-risk population Frederic Neumann
 Co-Head of Asian Economics Research
Although mass international tourism may take time to resume, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
countries are set to encourage local tourism fredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk
+852 2822 4556

Joining the pack Maitreyi Das

Associate
As the Delta impact gradually dissipates in many countries, more authorities are set to Bangalore
ease some of the curbs. In Japan, daily infections have consistently dropped from their
peak of 25k in mid-August to 2.5k on average lately, leading to a lifting of its nationwide
state of emergency (SoE) from 30 September covering Tokyo and 18 other
prefectures. While some restrictions, including on dining, will only be eased gradually,
this will be the first time Japan will see no SoE since early April.
Meanwhile, Thailand is also gradually reopening: from 1 October, more services (e.g.
cinemas and spas) will be allowed to operate and the night curfew in the 29 dark red
zones will be reduced by an hour, though it will remain in place for at least two more
weeks (Bangkok Post, 27 September). Thailand will also shorten its quarantine from
14 to 7 days for fully vaccinated foreign travellers.
On the other hand, Singapore has seen a sharp rise of cases, reaching a record high
of 2.2k in one day. The government has re-imposed restrictions on social gatherings
from 27 September to 24 October.

Booster shots to the rescue?

Singapore also kicked off a rollout of a third booster shot. It has started with seniors
above 60 from 14 September, with 50+ year olds next from 4 October. While it’s not
the first Asian country to use a booster shot, Singapore is the first one to start a
national program with a high full vaccination rate of 80%+. Elsewhere, over half of
Indonesian health workers received a booster shot, while Thailand has also started
the rollout of booster jabs from 24 September for 3m who are fully vaccinated.
Outside of ASEAN, South Korea will start its third booster for the elderly from
October while Japan plans to begin in early 2022.

Local tourism revival

While international tourism may take a while to pick up meaningfully, some ASEAN
countries are eyeing an immediate revival in domestic tourism. In addition to its 4-phase
international tourism re-opening plans, Thailand has extended its local tourism support
package until February 2022, including partially subsidizing flights and accommodation.
In Malaysia, Langkawi island has re-opened from 16 September as a pilot area for fully
HSBC Global Emerging Markets Forum
vaccinated locals. Its fast vaccine rollout has also given the government confidence, as
PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob recently announced that more tourist destinations would be 27 Sept – 15 Oct 2021 | Virtual
open once 90% of Malaysian adults are fully vaccinated, which is equivalent to around Register now
65% of its total population.

Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai

Disclosures & Disclaimer Banking Corporation Limited
This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications View HSBC Global Research at:
in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. https://www.research.hsbc.com
 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker

Chart 1: Total confirmed vaccine doses by country and territory (% of population)

Most economies have % of population

secured enough vaccine 600
doses to vaccinate at least 500
50% of their population
400

300

200

100

0
AU NZ JN SK TA HK MA SI TH PH IN VN ID BA *CH
Oxford university Pfizer Janssen (J &J) Moderna Sinovac Novavax
Gamaleya Research CanSino Biologics Bharat Biotech Sinopharm Corbevax Others

Note: *CH – mainland China. Duke University’s data do not include domestic supply for mainland China (not made publicly available).
Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC

Chart 2: Percentage of people who received at least one dose and were fully vaccinated

90 81.3
Mainland China and 79.4
80 75.1
Singapore lead Asia in terms 70.7 70.0 67.2 67.1
of vaccination progress 70 63.0
59.2
60 53.7
50 46.1
42.2
40 32.0 31.5
30 22.7
20 15.0
10
0
*CH SI SK MA JN NZ SL AU HK TA IN TH ID VN PH BA
People vaccinated per 100 Fully Vaccinated per 100

Note: *CH – mainland China data is our estimates from total number of doses given. As of 18 September, 70.8% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Source: Our World in Data, HSBC

Chart 3: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per one million population

Number of confirmed COVID- No of confirmed cases %

19 cases (per one million 140,000 6.0
people) in Asia remains far
120,000 5.0
below those in Western
economies 100,000
4.0
80,000
3.0
60,000
2.0
40,000
20,000 1.0

0 0.0
US UK MA IN SL PH TH SI ID JN BA VN SK AU HK NZ TA *CH
Cases per m Mortality rate

Note: *CH – mainland China.

Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker

Chart 4: Daily vaccination rate per economy (7-day moving average)

7 dma 7 dma
Asia continues to see steady 10,000,000 800,000
vaccination rates, with some 9,000,000 700,000
ASEAN countries increasing 8,000,000
600,000
vaccination pace as of late 7,000,000
6,000,000 500,000
5,000,000 400,000
4,000,000 300,000
3,000,000
200,000
2,000,000
1,000,000 100,000
0 0
IN CH* ID JN VN TH SK BA PH MA AU TA SL NZ HK SI
Latest daily doses 1 week ago Latest daily doses 1 week ago
Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – mainland China.

Chart 5: Daily vaccine rate per million of population

Per m
Australia, Korea and New 14,000
Zealand continue their steady
12,000
vaccine progress in terms of
daily doses per million 10,000
population
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
AU SK NZ JN TH MA TA SL VN ID IN SI HK PH BA CH*
Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago

Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – mainland China.

Chart 6: Projected timeline, given the pace of daily vaccination, of reaching 70%
population vaccination rates
At current daily vaccination *CH
rate, when might 70% of the SI
population be fully MA
vaccinated? JN
SK
AU
SL
NZ
TH
HK
TA
IN
ID
VN
PH
BA
Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Feb-22 May-22 Aug-22 Dec-22
Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH – mainland China.

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

COVID-19 in Asia

Chart 7: Indonesia Chart 8: Malaysia

Confirmed cases Indonesia Daily change Confirmed cases Malay sia Daily change
Daily cases continue to 2,400,000 30,000
4,500,000 60,000
moderate in Indonesia; 4,000,000 54,000 2,100,000
Malaysia’s daily cases have 48,000 25,000
3,500,000 1,800,000
started to drop 3,000,000 42,000 20,000
36,000 1,500,000
2,500,000
30,000 1,200,000 15,000
2,000,000
24,000
1,500,000 900,000
18,000 10,000
1,000,000 12,000 600,000
500,000 5,000
6,000 300,000
0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases

Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 9: Philippines Chart 10: Singapore

Confirmed cases Philippines Daily change Confirmed cases Singapore Daily change
Daily cases in the Philippines 3,000,000 30,000 100,000 2,500
remain high; Singapore’s 90,000
2,500,000 25,000 80,000 2,000
new cases have reached a
new record high 70,000
2,000,000 20,000
60,000 1,500
1,500,000 15,000 50,000
40,000 1,000
1,000,000 10,000 30,000
500,000 5,000 20,000 500
10,000
0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases

Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 11: Thailand Chart 12: Vietnam

Confirmed cases Thailand Daily change Confirmed cases Vietnam Daily change
Thailand’s daily continue to
1,800,000 25,000 900,000 19,200
drop; Vietnam’s new cases 800,000
1,600,000
have appeared to drop below 16,000
1,400,000 20,000 700,000
10k 1,200,000 600,000 12,800
15,000
1,000,000 500,000
9,600
800,000 400,000
10,000
600,000 300,000 6,400
400,000 5,000 200,000
200,000 3,200
100,000
0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases
Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

COVID-19 in Asia

The Delta outbreak has been Chart 13: Mainland China Chart 14: India
largely contained in mainland
China; while new cases Confirmed cases Mainland China Daily change Confirmed cases India Daily change
120,000 6,000 36,000,000 480,000
stabilised in India
32,000,000 420,000
100,000 5,000
28,000,000 360,000
80,000 4,000 24,000,000 300,000
20,000,000
60,000 3,000 240,000
16,000,000
40,000 2,000 12,000,000 180,000
8,000,000 120,000
20,000 1,000
4,000,000 60,000
0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases

Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 15: Australia Chart 16: New Zealand

Confirmed cases Australia Daily change Confirmed cases New Zealand Daily change
New cases continue to 120,000 2,500 5,000 100
remain elevated in Australia;
100,000 2,000 4,000 80
while daily infections remain
low in New Zealand 80,000
1,500 3,000 60
60,000
1,000 2,000 40
40,000
20,000 500 1,000 20

0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases

Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 17: Japan Chart 18: South Korea

New cases continue to drop Confirmed cases Japan Daily change Confirmed cases South Korea Daily change
1,800,000 30,000 360,000 3,600
in Japan but remain high in 27,000
1,600,000 320,000 3,200
South Korea 1,400,000 24,000 280,000 2,800
1,200,000 21,000 240,000 2,400
18,000
1,000,000 200,000 2,000
15,000
800,000 160,000 1,600
12,000
600,000 9,000 120,000 1,200
400,000 6,000 80,000 800
200,000 3,000 40,000 400
0 0 0 0
Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21 Feb-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Feb-21 Jun-21
Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases

Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Vaccine Data and Timelines

Chart 19: Potential vaccine coverage by population (confirmed doses + doses under
negotiation)

Potential vaccine coverage 479% % of population

500%
not yet 100% of population
450% 395%
for few Asian economies
400%
350%
300%
230% 223%
250%
200% 170%
150% 145% 133%
150% 100% 96% 86% 81% 79%
100% 64%
34%
50%
0%
AU NZ SK JN TA HK MA VN SI SL IN TH PH ID BA
Potential vaccine coverage

Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC

Chart 20: Share of confirmed vaccine dose purchases vs doses still under negotiations

A large portion of Vietnam’s India

total vaccine commitment Indonesia
Japan
has not yet been finalised Vietnam
and is still under negotiation Australia
China*
Philippines
South Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
Thailand
New Zealand
Hong Kong
% - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Confirmed dose purchases Dose purchases still under negotiation Donations

Note: China* – mainland China.

Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC

Chart 21: Vaccination timelines to reach 70% vaccination rate (analyst estimates)

Most economies in Asia VN

could reach 70% vaccination TH
rates by 1H22e, but it may TA
SL
take longer for ASEAN KR
SG
PH
MA
JN
ID
IN
HK
CH*
NZ
AU
Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23
Timeline to vaccinate 70% of the population

Note: *CH – mainland China.

Source: HSBC projections extrapolated from current rates of vaccination and vaccine supply.

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

ASEAN COVID-19 Trends

Chart 22: Daily new COVID-19 cases

The Philippines have taken New cases

over Indonesia to be the new 120,000
epicentre in ASEAN
100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
Aug-20 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-17 Feb-16 Mar-18 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-15 Sep-14
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 23: Oxford Stringency Index time series

Index Index
Government containment 100 100
measures persist across
ASEAN 80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
01-Jan 01-Mar 01-May 01-Jul 01-Sep 01-Nov 01-Jan 01-Mar 01-May 01-Jul 01-Sep
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 24: Number of new fatalities per day

Daily fatalities have appeared No of new deaths

to drop across ASEAN 3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
Mar 20 May 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Economic Indicators

Chart 25: Ground traffic trends in capital cities

Ground traffic in key ASEAN

cities remain depressed 20

10

-10

-20

-30

-40
Bangkok Kuala New Delhi Singapore Jakarta Manila Tokyo Taipei Hong Kong
Lumpur
Change in % from peak traffic hrs in 2019

Source: TomTom, HSBC

Chart 26: Air traffic trends across Asia

Air traffic remains depressed
in many ASEAN cities, but No of flights tracked
500
has shot up significantly in 450
Beijing 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Bangkok Colombo Hanoi Kuala Manila Taiwan Singapore Seoul Hong Jakarta Tokyo London Beijing New York Delhi
Lumpur Kong
Latest 1m ago

Source: Flight Tracker, HSBC

Chart 27: Oxford Stringency Index

Government stringency Index

measures broadly remain the 90
same in the region
80

70

60

50

40

30
MA SL CH* PH VN IN ID HK TH JN SI SK
Latest 1 m ago

Note: *CH – mainland China.

Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Economic Indicators

Chart 28: Average non-residential mobility (recent vs one month ago)

VN SL MA TH AU NZ TA PH SI ID JN US KR IN HK
20 15
10
0
-10 0
-6
-20 -7 -3
-13 -9
-18
-30
-25 -23 -17
-40 -32 -25
-27
-50
-60
-48
-70

21-Sep 1 month ago

Note: Comparison to Google baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period of 3 January 2020-6 February 2020.
Source: CEIC, HSBC

Chart 29: Mobility data: Average non-residential COVID-19 tracker

Average Non-residential mobility
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

Asia
AU
NZ
JN
HK
IN
ID
KR
MA
PH
SI
SL
TA
TH
VN
Elsewhere
US
UK
Key (Amount of time spent in each location vs baseline levels)
Low High

Note: Comparison to Google baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the five-week period of 3 January 2020-6 February 2020.
Source: CEIC, HSBC

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)
whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering
analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or
issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other
views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect
their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Yun Liu and Frederic Neumann

Important disclosures
This document has been prepared and is being distributed by the Research Department of HSBC and is intended solely for the
clients of HSBC and is not for publication to other persons, whether through the press or by other means.

This document is for information purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to
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Additional disclosures
1 This report is dated as at 01 October 2021.
2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 30 September 2021, unless a different date and/or a specific
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Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

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 Economics ● Asia
1 October 2021

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12
Global Economics Research Team
North America CEEMEA
Global
Global Chief Economist US Chief Economist, CEEMEA
Janet Henry +44 20 7991 6711 Simon Williams +44 20 7718 9563
janet.henry@hsbcib.com Ryan Wang +1 212 525 3181 simon.williams@hsbc.com
ryan.wang@us.hsbc.com
Global Economist Economist, CEE
James Pomeroy +44 20 7991 6714 Canada Agata Urbanska-Giner +44 20 7992 2774
james.pomeroy@hsbc.com agata.urbanska@hsbcib.com
David G Watt +1 416 868 8130
Analyst david.g.watt@hsbc.ca Chief Economist, Turkey
Henry Ward +44 20 7359 5611 Melis Metiner +44 20 3359 2636
henry.ward@hsbc.com Asia Pacific melismetiner@hsbcib.com

Trade Economist Co-Head Asian Economics Research and

Economist, South Africa
Shanella Rajanayagam +44 20 3268 4118 Chief Economist Greater China
David Faulkner +27 11 676 4569
shanella.l.rajanayagam@hsbc.com Qu Hongbin +852 2822 2025
david.faulkner@za.hsbc.com
hongbinqu@hsbc.com.hk
Europe Co-Head of Asian Economics Research Latin America
Chief European Economist Frederic Neumann +852 2822 4556 Chief Economist, Brazil
Simon Wells +44 20 7991 6718 fredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk Ana Madeira +55 11 2802 2558
simon.wells@hsbcib.com ana.madeira@hsbc.com
Chief Economist, Australia, New Zealand and
European Economist Global Commodities Senior Economist, South America ex-Brazil
Fabio Balboni +44 20 7992 0374 Paul Bloxham +612 9255 2635 Jorge Morgenstern +54 11 4130 9229
fabio.balboni@hsbc.com paulbloxham@hsbc.com.au jorge.morgenstern@hsbc.com.ar

Senior Economist Chief Economist, India Senior Economist, Mexico and Brazil
Chris Hare +44 20 7991 2995 Pranjul Bhandari +91 22 2268 1841 Jose Carlos Sanchez +52 55 5721 5623
chris.hare@hsbc.com pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.in jose.c.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx
Joseph Incalcaterra +852 2822 4687
United Kingdom joseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc.com.hk Currency Strategy
Economist Global Head of Currency
Elizabeth Martins +44 20 7991 2170 Jamie Culling +612 9006 5042 Paul Mackel +852 2996 6565
liz.martins@hsbc.com jamie.culling@hsbc.com.au paulmackel@hsbc.com.hk

Jingyang Chen +852 2996 6558

Germany
Jingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk
Stefan Schilbe +49 211 910 3137
stefan.schilbe@hsbc.de Jing Liu +852 3941 0063
jing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk
Christian Fuertjes +49 211 910 7051
christian.fuertjes@hsbc.de James Lee +65 6658 0609
james.dh.lee@hsbc.com.sg
France
Yun Liu + 852 2822 4297
Chantana Sam +33 1 4070 7795 yun.liu@hsbc.com.hk
chantana.sam@hsbc.fr
Aayushi Chaudhary +91 22 2268 5543
aayushi.b.chaudhary@hsbc.co.in

Erin Xin +852 2996 6975

erin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk

Ki-Hyuk Lee, CFA + 852 2822 4523

ki-hyuk.lee@hsbc.com.hk

Shanshan Song +86 10 5999 8234

shan.shan.song@hsbc.com.cn