STATISTICS 200 CHAPTER 4 [PROBABILITY]

4.1-4.2
Probability: It is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.
Experiment: A process that generates well-defined outcomes. On any single repetition of
experiment, one and only one of possible outcomes will occur.
Examples
Experiment Outcomes
Toss a coin Head or Tail
Role a die 1,2,3,4,5,6
Play a football game Win, lose, draw
Select a part for inspection Defective, non-defective

Sample space: The list of all possible outcomes for an experiment.

Event: Any subset of sample space.
Example:
Experiment: Roll a die.
Sample space: S={1,2,3,4,5,6}.
Event A=The result is an even number, so A={2,4,6}
1 2 3 4 5 6

Event B=The result is less than or equal to 4, so B={1,2,3,4}

1 2 3 4 5 6

Event C=The result is greater than 2, so C={3,4,5,6}

1 2 3 4 5 6
! Notice that all the events above A, B, and C are the subsets of S.

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Probability of an event: If is an event of a sample space , then means the
probability of the event , and

 The number of the elements in

 : The number of elements in the sample space .
! Note that so if you devide both sides by , then

so probability of an event can’t be bigger than 1.

! If is an empty set, then , in this case the probability of ,

, therefore the smallest probability is zero.

Basic requirements for assigning probabilities

Let be a sample space of an experiment.
 for each i.


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Example: You toss two coins at the same time.
1. What is the sample space?

2. What is the ?

3. Write the elements of the event that there is at least one head in the outcomes.

4. Write the elements of the event that both coins have the same face.

5. Find and .

Example: You roll two dice at the same time. The sample space is as follow:

Let the event is the sum of the numbers on the top face of two dice is greater than 8.
Write the elements of event , then find its probability.

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 The relative frequency method to find the probability
Most of the time the data is given with frequency table and we compute the probability
from relative frequency.
Example: In a hospital, a nurse recorded the number of the patients waiting for the x-ray at
9:00 am for 20 days. See the frequency table below.
Number of the patients waiting for x- Number of the days
ray at 9 am
0 2
1 5
2 6
3 4
4 3
Total 20 days

Answer the following questions:

1. Find the probability that there is no one waiting for the x-ray.
Notice that only 2 days out of 20 there were no patients for the x-ray, so probability is
2/20=0.10
2. Find the probability that there are only 3 people waiting for the x-ray.
It was recorded that out of 20 there was only 4 days that 3 patients were waiting for
the x-ray, so probability is 4/20=0.20

Subjective method for the probability

Subjective probability is where you use your opinion to find probabilities. For example:

 You think you have an 80% chance of your best friend calling today, because her car
broke down yesterday and she’ll probably need a ride.
 You think you have a 50% chance of getting the job you applied for, because the other
applicant is also very qualified.
 You’re taking your dog to the vet today, and based on past experience you’re pretty
confident (higher probability) you’ll need over $100 for the bill.

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Example: Suppose that a manager of a large apartment complex provides the following
subjective probability estimates about the number of vacancies that will exist next month.
Vacancies Probability
0 0.10
1 0.15
2 0.30
3 0.20
4 0.15
5 0.10

1. What is the probability of no vacancies?

2. What is the probability of at least for vacancies?

3. What is the probability of two or fewer vacancies?

4.3
Complement of an event. If is a event, then the complement of is ̅ which equals to all
elements in the sample space but not in .
Draw

!Note that ̅

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If and are two events:
 The union of and is that is all outcomes in A or B or both.
 The intersection of and is that is all outcomes in A and B.
 If we say A and B are mutually exclusive.
 Addition Law:
Example: If you roll a die, the sample space is .
Event A= The result is even.
Event B= The result is odd.
Event C= The result is prime.
1. Write the elements of A, B, and C.

2. Find

3. Find

4. Find

5. Find ̅ and ̅

6. Find ̅ and ̅

7. Find ̅

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4.4 Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events conditional probability of A given B is:

Example.
Police Department Promoted=A Non-promoted=B Total
Male=M 250 550 800
Female=F 50 150 200
Total 300 700 1000

a. What is the probability of a randomly selected officer being Female?

b. What is the probability of a randomly selected officer is Non-promoted and Male?

c. What is the probability of a randomly selected officer is Promoted or Female?

d. What is the probability of a randomly selected officer is promoted given that she is
female?

e. What is the probability of a randomly selected officer is male given that he is non-
promoted?

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Example.
How many hours do study in a week?
Course Grade >5 (M) 1-5 (N) 0 (L) Total
A 30 10 0 40
B 15 10 5 30
C 10 10 10 30
Total 55 30 15 100

a. What is the probability of a randomly selected student had a grade A?

b. What is the probability of a randomly selected student studied more than 5 hours?

c. What is the probability of a randomly selected student studied between 1 to 5 hours

and had a grade B?

d. What is the probability of a randomly selected student had a grade A or having

studied more than 5 hours?

e. What is the probability of a randomly selected student not studied

at all given that he got B?

f. What is the probability of a randomly selected student not studied

at all or studied more than 5 hours given that he got C?

( | )

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 g. What is the probability of a randomly selected student studied between 1 to 5 hours
given that he/she got B or C?

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h. What is the probability of a randomly selected student studied between 1 to 5 hours

or not studied at all given that he got B or C?

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