Excel Tables

Standard
Variables Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis

Deviation
Aggregate Trade Flow 16.39 0.31 15.58 16.88 -0.92 3.01
Export 15.41 0.24 14.88 15.8 -0.62 2.29

Import 15.91 0.37 14.89 16.53 -0.99 3.44
Foreign Direct 13.43 0.54 12.32 14.63 0 2.39
Investment
Interest Rate 2.32 0.26 1.65 2.67 -0.66 2.52
Remittances 14.72 0.59 13.72 15.53 -0.29 1.63
Industrial Production 11.5 2.54 5.84 15.56 -0.5 2.56
Inflation 6 0.4 5.3 6.52 -0.34 1.61

Nominal Exchange 4.41 0.24 4.05 4.78 -0.33 1.52
Rate
Exchange Rate 0.85 2.15 -4.42 5.48 -0.24 2.93
Volatility
Standard
Deviation
Aggregate Trade Flow 13706880 3751770 5836915 21392083 -0.92 3.01
Export 5043877 1103038 2910461 7242548 -0.62 2.29

Import 8663003 2755235 2926455 15068713 -0.99 3.44
Foreign Direct 780991 431931 224003 2265703 0.00 2.39
Investment
Remittances 2884355 1494867 906500 5529000 -0.29 1.63
Industrial Production 707577 1291154 342 5728389 -0.50 2.56
Standard
Deviation
01. Live Animals 11.55 0.53 10.56 12.33 -0.24 1.71
02. Vegetable Products 13.19 0.44 12.19 13.88 -0.69 2.45
03. Animal, Oils and 10.03 0.42 9.16 10.72 -0.56 2.5
Waxes
04. Foodstuffs; Beverages 11.78 0.7 10.44 13.04 -0.05 1.96

and Tobacco
05. Mineral Products 12.65 0.56 10.51 13.47 -1.59 6.16
06. Products of Chemical 11.43 0.29 10.8 12.1 -0.29 2.55
07. Plastics and Articles 11.44 0.4 10.58 12.03 -0.68 2.33
08. Raw Hide and Skins, 12.44 0.17 12.04 12.72 -0.32 2.27
and Leather
09. Wood and Articles of 8.73 0.6 7.49 9.5 -0.42 1.76
Wood
10. Pulp of Wood or of 9.56 0.57 7.98 10.59 -0.68 3.27
other Fibrous
11. Textiles and Textile 14.86 0.18 14.51 15.16 -0.4 1.86
Articles
12. Footwear and 10.15 0.2 9.69 10.67 0.03 3.17
Headgear
13. Stone, Plaster, and 9.8 0.34 9.1 10.54 -0.14 2.27
Cement
14. Pearls, Precious 9.06 1.02 7.93 11.95 1.26 3.44
Stones, Metals
15. Base Metals and 11.41 0.58 10.11 12.21 -0.61 2.26
Articles
16. Machinery and 10.84 0.26 10.3 11.42 -0.02 2.71
Mechanical
17. Vehicles, Aircraft, and 9.41 0.47 8.38 10.57 0.19 2.57
Vessels
18. Optical and 11.22 0.28 10.62 11.69 -0.34 2.19
Photographic
19. Arms and Ammunition 8.06 0.87 6.29 10.79 0.8 4.05
20. Arts, Collectors, and 7.27 0.99 4.65 10.14 -0.07 3.83
Antiques
Standard
Variables (Thousands US dollars) Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness
Deviation
01. Live Animals 118134.46 56509.63 38724.19 226188.78 -0.24
02. Vegetable Products 582170.46 222730.43 195875.32 1061489.22 -0.69
03. Animal, Oils and Waxes 24462.22 9188.25 9481.71 45042.10 -0.56
04. Foodstuffs; Beverages and Tobacco 163273.13 109766.94 34165.36 459019.09 -0.05
05. Mineral Products 351723.40 148532.68 36812.33 710106.93 -1.59
06. Products of Chemical 96016.61 26997.11 48921.99 180214.54 -0.29
07. Plastics and Articles 99865.44 34869.50 39160.99 167827.53 -0.68
08. Raw Hide and Skins, and Leather 255589.27 41240.89 169529.63 334963.71 -0.32
09. Wood and Articles of Wood 7283.09 3713.71 1798.48 13334.11 -0.42
10. Pulp of Wood or of other Fibrous 16384.61 8307.77 2923.26 39753.25 -0.68
11. Textiles and Textile Articles 2890709.47 489868.63 1997526.07 3833593.90 -0.4
12. Footwear and Headgear 26056.71 5267.08 16083.82 42843.84 0.03
13. Stone, Plaster, and Cement 19143.05 6462.37 8924.85 37707.26 -0.14
14. Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals 17201.80 28083.81 2775.87 154359.05 1.26
15. Base Metals and Articles 104425.70 50786.66 24593.01 201211.34 -0.61
16. Machinery and Mechanical 52764.81 13906.06 29614.88 91468.39 -0.02
17. Vehicles, Aircraft, and Vessels 13670.90 6906.80 4345.07 39093.52 0.19
18. Optical and Photographic 77264.57 20801.10 40793.88 118892.51 -0.34
19. Arms and Ammunition 5082.13 7522.17 539.35 48508.05 0.8
20. Arts, Collectors, and Antiques 2375.39 3507.87 104.59 25400.98 -0.07
Kurtosis
1.71
2.45
2.5
1.96
6.16
2.55
2.33
2.27
1.76
3.27
1.86
3.17
2.27
3.44
2.26
2.71
2.57
2.19
4.05
3.83
Descriptive Statistics Unit Root Analysis
Variables (Market share) Standard ADF- ADF-1st
Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis
Deviation Level Diff
Foreign Direct Investment 13.43 0.54 12.32 14.63 0.00 2.39 -2.34 -6.83
Interest Rate 2.32 0.26 1.65 2.67 -0.66 2.52 -1.37 -4.38
Remittances 14.72 0.59 13.72 15.53 -0.29 1.63 -1.85 -3.99
Industrial Production 11.50 2.54 5.84 15.56 -0.50 2.56 -3.87 -3.07
Inflation 6.00 0.40 5.30 6.52 -0.34 1.61 -2.16 -4.43
Nominal Exchange Rate 4.41 0.24 4.05 4.78 -0.33 1.52 -0.49 -4.99
Exchange Rate Volatility 0.85 2.15 -4.42 5.48 -0.24 2.93 -3.57 -3.49
11-Textiles (0.59) 2890709 489869 1997526 3833594 -0.40 1.86 -1.79 -6.61
02-Vegetable (0.11) 582170 222730 195875 1061489 -0.69 2.45 -2.48 -3.87
05-Minerals (0.05) 351723 148533 36812 710107 -1.59 6.16 -3.13 -4.41
04-Foodstuff (0.05) 163273 109767 34165 459019 -0.05 1.96 -1.42 -3.11
08-Skins and Leather (0.047) 255589 41241 169530 334964 -0.32 2.27 -2.53 -4.41
01-Live Animals (0.03) 118134 56510 38724 226189 -0.24 1.71 -1.30 -3.51
06-Chemicals (0.03) 96017 26997 48922 180215 -0.29 2.55 -2.36 -4.82
15-Metals (0.02) 17202 28084 2776 154359 1.26 3.44 -2.26 -5.97
07-Plastics (0.02) 99865 34870 39161 167828 -0.68 2.33 -2.58 -7.76
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) 77265 20801 40794 118893 -0.34 2.19 -2.01 -10.26
16-Machineries (<1) 52765 13906 29615 91468 -0.02 2.71 -1.32 -4.51
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (<1) 26057 5267 16084 42844 0.03 3.17 -3.08 -3.46
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) 16385 8308 2923 39753 -0.68 3.27 -1.31 -4.62
17-Vehicles (<1) 13671 6907 4345 39094 0.19 2.57 -3.16 -15.66
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) 24462 9188 9482 45042 -0.56 2.5 -1.04 -7.70
13-Stones & Cement (<1) 19143 6462 8925 37707 -0.14 2.27 -1.24 -11.89
09-Woods (<1) 7283 3714 1798 13334 -0.42 1.76 -0.97 -4.21
19-Arms & Ammunition (<1) 5082 7522 539 48508 0.8 4.05 -0.22 -6.81
14-Precious Stones (<1) 104426 50787 24593 201211 -0.61 2.26 -1.70 -8.50
20-Arts & Antiques (<1) 2375 3508 105 25401 -0.07 3.83 -0.11 -7.63
1%Critic. Value -3.55 -3.55

5%Critic. Value -2.91 -2.91
10%Critic. Value -2.59 -2.59
Unit Root Analysis
PP- PP-1st
Integration Variables Mean STD Min. Max. Skew. Kurt.
Level Diff
-3.84 -15.53 I(1) 17-Vehicles (0.0031) 13.67 6.91 4.35 39.09 0.19 2.57
-2.51 -3.09 I(1) 03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) 24.46 9.19 9.48 45.04 -0.56 2.5
-1.57 -11.44 I(1) 13-Stones and Cement (0.00183) 19.14 6.46 8.92 37.71 -0.14 2.27
-3.12 -3.34 I(0) 09-Woods (0.0018) 7.28 3.71 1.80 13.33 -0.42 1.76
-2.12 -4.38 I(1) 19-Arms and Ammunition (0.00083) 5.08 7.52 0.54 48.51 0.8 4.05
-0.33 -4.94 I(1) 14- Precious Stones (0.00065) 104.43 50.79 24.59 201.21 -0.61 2.26
-2.02 -8.01 I(0) 20-Arts and Antiques (0.000477) 2.38 3.51 0.10 25.40 -0.07 3.83
-1.78 -6.60 I(1) 1%Critic. Value
-2.13 -10.27 I(1) 5%Critic. Value
-2.82 -7.92 I(1) 10%Critic. Value
-1.63 -20.71 I(1)
-2.88 -8.63 I(1)
2.68 -24.25 I(1)
-2.08 -13.52 I(1)
-2.24 -8.95 I(1)
-2.47 -9.19 I (1)
-1.59 -30.25 I(1)
0.25 -21.37 I(1)
0.56 -17.60 I(1)
-2.66 -8.30 I(1)
0.53 -20.72 I(1)
-2.00 -13.90 I(1)
-1.39 -12.12 I(1)
-2.06 -12.73 I(1)
-0.35 -17.46 I(1)
-0.07 -10.25 I(1)
-0.29 -10.24 I(1)
-3.55 -3.55
-2.91 -2.91
-2.59 -2.59
ADF-1st PP-1st Integration
ADF-Level PP-Level
Diff Diff Order
-3.16 -15.66 0.53 -20.72 I(1)
-1.04 -7.70 -2.00 -13.90 I(1)
-1.24 -11.89 -1.39 -12.12 I(1)
-0.97 -4.21 -2.06 -12.73 I(1)
-0.22 -6.81 -0.35 -17.46 I(1)
-1.70 -8.50 -0.07 -10.25 I(1)
-0.11 -7.63 -0.29 -10.24 I(1)
-3.55 -3.55 -3.55 -3.55
-2.91 -2.91 -2.91 -2.91
-2.59 -2.59 -2.59 -2.59
Column1 Column2
x11 2,890,709 59%
x2 582,170 12%
x5 351,723 7%
x8 255,589 5%
x4 163,273 3%
x1 118,134 2%
x15 104,426 2%
x7 99,865 2%
x6 96,017 2%
x18 77,265 2%
x16 52,765 1%
x12 26,057 1%
x3 24,462 0.497%
x13 19,143 0.389%
x14 17,202 0.349%
x10 16,385 0.333%
x17 13,671 0.278%
x9 7,283 0.148%
x19 5,082 0.103%
x20 2,375 0.048%
4,923,597 100%
Standard
Deviation
01. Live Animals 10.15 0.79 8.22 11.25 -0.73 2.6
03. Animal, Oils and 12.84 0.43 11.95 13.5 -0.61 2.05
Waxes

and Tobacco
05. Mineral Products 14.68 0.54 13 15.36 -1.24 3.95
08. Raw Hide and Skins, 9.77 0.36 8.98 11.26 0.81 6.39
and Leather
Wood
10. Pulp of Wood or of 11.72 0.38 10.87 12.33 -0.48 2.26
other Fibrous
11. Textiles and Textile 13.08 0.48 12.18 14.09 0.11 2.16
Articles
12. Footwear and 8.78 0.83 7.23 10.1 -0.17 1.79
Headgear
13. Stone, Plaster, and 10.49 0.37 9.92 11.34 0.73 2.65
Cement
14. Pearls, Precious 6.9 0.67 5.51 8.07 -0.28 2.07
Stones, Metals
15. Base Metals and 13.27 0.41 12.18 14.08 -0.48 3.68
Articles
16. Machinery and 13.97 0.33 13.08 14.58 -0.21 3.45
Mechanical
Vessels
18. Optical and 11.55 0.38 10.74 12.51 0.37 2.79
Photographic
19. Arms and 8.57 0.96 7.05 10.66 0.4 2.33
Ammunition
20. Arts, Collectors, and 12.47 0.49 11.59 13.75 0.63 3.21
Antiques
Importing Industries Standard
Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis
(Thousands US dollars) Deviation
01. Live Animals 32874.82752 20118.35174 3723.886 76781.674 -0.73 2.6
03. Animal, Oils and 408725.2535 153042.0882 154434.678 730203.104 -0.61 2.05
Waxes

and Tobacco
05. Mineral Products 2672708.393 1102644.803 443802.889 4691794.77 -1.24 3.95
08. Raw Hide and Skins, 18860.1921 9181.17713 7910.162 77514.473 0.81 6.39
and Leather
Wood
10. Pulp of Wood or of 131408.5626 45199.82067 52482.964 226647.139 -0.48 2.26
other Fibrous
11. Textiles and Textile 538343.9618 264155.1673 194681.155 1321692.556 0.11 2.16
Articles
12. Footwear and 8826.803017 6484.745469 1386.249 24283.487 -0.17 1.79
Headgear
13. Stone, Plaster, and 38839.91343 16270.55819 20403.351 84380.129 0.73 2.65
Cement
14. Pearls, Precious 1219.147267 743.6666286 248.134 3211.063 -0.28 2.07
Stones, Metals
15. Base Metals and 628145.9318 249336.8211 194890.658 1297929.574 -0.48 3.68
Articles
16. Machinery and 1224956.207 402666.0226 481605.463 2155397.99 -0.21 3.45
Mechanical
Vessels
18. Optical and 112447.1459 47071.15927 45998.784 270968.084 0.37 2.79
Photographic
19. Arms and Ammunition 8496.7694 9466.585947 1148.138 42514.819 0.4 2.33
20. Arts, Collectors, and 294957.9335 173588.2564 108498.496 933539.6706 0.63 3.21
Antiques
Standard
Variables (Trade Share) Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis ADF-Level
Deviation
Foreign Direct Investment 13.43 0.54 12.32 14.63 0.00 2.39 -2.34
Interest Rate 2.32 0.26 1.65 2.67 -0.66 2.52 -1.37
Remittances 14.72 0.59 13.72 15.53 -0.29 1.63 -1.85
Industrial Production 11.5 2.54 5.84 15.56 -0.50 2.56 -3.87
Inflation 6 0.40 5.30 6.52 -0.34 1.61 -2.16
Nominal Exchange Rate 4.41 0.24 4.05 4.78 -0.33 1.52 -0.49
Exchange Rate Volatility 0.85 2.15 -4.42 5.48 -0.24 2.93 -3.57
5-Minerals (0.25) 2672708 1102645 443803 4691795 -1.24 3.95 -2.75
16-Machineries (0.16) 1224956 402666 481605 2155398 -0.21 3.45 -2.12
06-Chemicals (0.11) 1065103 284337 480345 1682549 -0.69 2.63 -1.89
15-Metals (0.08) 628146 249337 194891 1297930 -0.48 3.68 -1.61
11-Textiles (0.07) 538344 264155 194681 1321693 0.11 2.16 -0.25
2-Vegetables (0.06) 426383 189164 97725 844294 -0.59 2.93 -1.21
17-Vehicles (0.06) 425116 160905 198048 990046 0.26 2.8 -0.64
07-Plastics (0.05) 430823 145147 160842 764987 -0.56 2.77 -1.93
03-Oils and Waxes (0.04) 408725 153042 154435 730203 -0.61 2.05 -1.54
20-Arts and Antiques (0.03) 294958 173588 108498 933540 0.63 3.21 -1.86
10-Pulps of Wood (0.02) 131409 45200 52483 226647 -0.48 2.26 -1.36
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) 112447 47071 45999 270968 0.37 2.79 0.33
04-Foodstuffs (0.01) 133496 85868 15903 481173 -0.73 3.41 -3.36
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 38840 16271 20403 84380 0.73 2.65 -0.08
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 32875 20118 3724 76782 -0.73 2.6 -2.62
09-Woods (0.0035) 24334 11581 6801 50727 -0.12 2.25 -1.29
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) 18860 9181 7910 77514 0.81 6.39 -2.71
8827 6485 1386 24283
12-Footwears & Umbrellas(0.0016) -0.17 1.79 -0.36
8497 9467 1148 42515

19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0014) 0.4 2.33 -2.97
14- Precious Stones (0.000172) 1219 744 248 3211 -0.28 2.07 -5.20
Integration
ADF-1st Diff PP-Level PP-1st Diff
Order
-6.83 -3.84 -15.53 I(1)
-4.38 -2.51 -3.09 I(1)
-3.99 -1.57 -11.44 I(1)
-3.07 -3.12 -3.34 I(0)
-4.43 -2.12 -4.38 I(1)
-4.99 -0.33 -4.94 I(1)
-3.49 -2.02 -8.01 I(0)
-7.84 -2.60 -7.95 I(1)
-9.83 -2.15 -9.76 I(1)
-4.78 -2.30 -23.02 I(1)
-6.55 -2.02 -11.70 I(1)
-4.33 -1.91 -29.25 I(1)
-4.75 -2.01 -32.22 I(1)
-7.70 -0.89 -9.33 I(1)
-9.21 -1.97 -9.42 I(1)
-9.74 -1.73 -9.74 I(1)
-7.40 -2.93 -33.66 I(1)
-7.49 -1.83 -15.24 I(1)
-7.80 -2.21 -16.41 I(1)
-5.46 -2.24 -8.89 I(1)
-12.01 -1.06 -12.01 I(1)
-5.53 -2.32 -25.41 I(1)
-3.01 -1.11 -36.22 I(1)
-5.16 -4.07 -12.31 I(1)
-4.06 -2.03 -22.29 I(1)
-7.97 -4.87 -22.08 I(1)

-9.25 -5.31 -17.48 I(0)
Nominal Foreign Direct
Variables Volatility Interest Rate Remittances Inflation
Exchange Rate Investment
Nominal Exchange Rate 1.000
Volatility 0.138 1.000
Foreign Direct Investment -0.281 0.344 1.000
Interest Rate 0.100 0.192 0.104 1.000
Remittances 0.959 0.087 -0.227 -0.035 1.000
Inflation 0.985 0.119 -0.227 0.039 0.986 1.000
Industrial Production 0.645 0.049 0.042 -0.403 0.679 0.677
Industrial Prodution
1.000
Level of
Variables ADF-Level ADF-1st Diff PP-Level PP-1st Diff
Integration
Ln Aggregate Trade
-2 -15.102 -2.121 -24.084 I(0)
Flow
Ln Export -1.812 -3.75 -2.646 -26.183 I(1)
Ln Imports -2.388 -18.912 -2.235 -21.896 I(0)
Ln Nominal exchange
-2.103 -10.586 -2.087 -10.534 I(1)
rate
Ln Interest Rate -2.662 -6.648 -2.616 -8.987 I(0)
Ln Inflation -2.702 -5.197 -2.163 -11.13 I(1)
Ln PK Industrial
-1.646 -4.117 -2.137 -5.858 I(0)
production
Ln Remittances -1.115 -16.563 -1.322 -52.571 I(0)
Ln Foreign direct
-2.7 -10.898 -8.125 -44.67 I(0)
investment
Ln Exchange rate
-13.44 -10.53 -13.45 -91.7 I(0)
volatility
1%Critic. Value -3.467 -3.469 -3.466 -3.466
5%Critic. Value -2.877 -2.878 -2.877 -2.877
10%Critic. Value -2.575 -2.575 -2.575 -2.575
ADF-1st PP-1st Level of
Export Industries ADF-Level PP-Level
Diff Diff Integration
01. Live Animals 1.539 -3.478 2.681 -24.25 I(1)
02. Vegetable
-2.709 4.82 -2.741 -14.627 I(1)
Products
03. Animal, Oils
-2.192 -9.075 -5.445 -31.402 I(0)
and Waxes
04. Foodstuffs;
Beverages and -2.762 -15.84 -2.554 -18.506 I(0)
Tobacco
05. Mineral
-4.801 -14.237 -4.3 -24.71 I(0)
Products
06. Products of
-3.051 -14.301 -4.345 -24.269 I(0)
Chemical
07. Plastics and
-2.638 -14.36 -3.552 -25.64 I (0)
Articles
08. Raw Hide and

-2.6397 -8.5124 -4.9531 -28.077 I(0)
Skins, and Leather
09. Wood and

-1.819 -11.822 -3.803 -43.544 I(0)
Articles of Wood
10. Pulp of Wood

-3.213 -15.2 -4.037 -25.8 I(0)
or of other Fibrous
11. Textiles and

-1.69 -22.222 -3.113 -38.113 I(0)
Textile Articles
12. Footwear and
-8.405 -11.666 -8.342 -34.051 I(0)
Headgear
13. Stone, Plaster,

-1.979 -15.872 -3.835 -38.5 I(0)
and Cement
14. Pearls,
Precious Stones, -3.2 -14.016 -5.445 -26.531 I(0)
Metals
15. Base Metals
-2.29 -14.703 -3.036 -23.98 I(0)
and Articles
16. Machinery and
-5.203 -22.38 -8.954 -50.895 I(0)
Mechanical
17. Vehicles,
Aircraft, and -2.214 -9.791 -9.35 -53.48 I(0)
Vessels
18. Optical and
-3.195 -10.571 -9.508 -126.97 I(0)
Photographic
19. Arms and
-3.581 -14.195 -11.76 -33.367 I(0)
Ammunition
20. Arts,
Collectors, and -4.099 -12.62 -10.767 -39.554 I(0)
Antiques
1%Critic. Value -3.467 -3.469 -3.466 -3.466
5%Critic. Value -2.877 -2.878 -2.877 -2.877
10%Critic. Value -2.575 -2.575 -2.575 -2.575
10. Pulp of Wood or of other Fibrous & 16384.614 & 8307.7687 & 2923.262 & 3
-0.68 & 3.27 \\
11. Textiles and Textile Articles & 2890709.5 & 489868.63 & 1997526.1 & 383359
1.86 \\
12. Footwear and Headgear & 26056.713 & 5267.0819 & 16083.816 & 42843.84
3.17 \\
x5
13. Stone, Plaster, and Cement & 19143.05 & 6462.3674 & 8924.851 & 37707.25
2.27 \\
14. Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals & 17201.799 & 28083.808 & 2775.865 & 1543
& 3.44 \\
15. Base Metals and Articles & 104425.7 & 50786.663 & 24593.009 & 201211.3
2.26 \\
16. Machinery and Mechanical & 52764.807 & 13906.056 & 29614.879 & 91468.
2.71 \\
17. Vehicles, Aircraft, and Vessels & 13670.902 & 6906.7998 & 4345.074 & 39093
& 2.57 \\
18. Optical and Photographic & 77264.568 & 20801.101 & 40793.876 & 118892.
2.19 \\
19. Arms and Ammunition & 5082.134 & 7522.1724 & 539.351 & 48508.049 & 0
20. Arts, Collectors, and Antiques & 2375.3904 & 3507.8708 & 104.586 & 25400.9
3.83 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}%
}
\end{table}
x11
x17
x19
x20
\textbf{Export Industries} & \m
\multicolumn{1}{p{4.215em}}{\textbf{P
& 8307.7687 & 2923.262 & 39753.254 &

7 \\
68.63 & 1997526.1 & 3833593.9 & -0.45 &
0819 & 16083.816 & 42843.843 & 0.03 &
2.3674 & 8924.851 & 37707.259 & -0.14 &
28083.808 & 2775.865 & 154359.05 & 1.26

04. Foodstuffs; Bevera
.663 & 24593.009 & 201211.34 & -0.61 &
06.056 & 29614.879 & 91468.39 & -0.02 &

08. Raw Hide and Skin
906.7998 & 4345.074 & 39093.516 & 0.19
10. Pulp of Wood o
1.101 & 40793.876 & 118892.51 & -0.34 &
4 & 539.351 & 48508.049 & 0.8 & 4.05 \\

507.8708 & 104.586 & 25400.975 & -0.07 & 14. Pearls, Precious
ule
r}%
}
20. Arts, Collectors,
\toprule
\textbf{Export Industries} & \multicolumn{1}{p{4.5em}}{\textbf{ADF-Level}} & \multicolumn{1}{p{4.715em}}{\textbf{ADF-1st Diff}} &
umn{1}{p{4.215em}}{\textbf{PP-Level}} & \multicolumn{1}{p{4.215em}}{\textbf{PP-1st Diff}} & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{\textbf{Level
Integration}} \\
\midrule
Ln Nominal exchange rate & -2.103 & -10.586 & -2.087 & -10.534 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
Ln Interest Rate & -2.662 & -6.648 & -2.616 & -8.987 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(0)} \\
Ln Inflation & -2.702 & -5.197 & -2.163 & -11.13 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
Ln PK Industrial production & -1.646 & -4.117 & -2.137 & -5.858 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(0)} \\
Ln Remittances & -1.115 & -16.563 & -1.322 & -52.571 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(0)} \\
Ln Foreign direct investment & -2.7 & -10.898 & -8.125 & -44.67 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(0)} \\
Ln Exchange rate volatility & -13.44 & -10.53 & -13.45 & -91.7 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(0)} \\
01. Live Animals & 1.539 & -3.478 & 2.681 & -24.25 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
02. Vegetable Products & -2.709 & 4.82 & -2.741 & -14.627 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
03. Animal, Oils and Waxes & -2.192 & -9.075 & -5.445 & -31.402 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
04. Foodstuffs; Beverages and Tobacco & -2.762 & -15.84 & -2.554 & -18.506 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
05. Mineral Products & -4.801 & -14.237 & -4.3 & -24.71 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
06. Products of Chemical & -3.05 & -14.30 & -4.35 & -24.27 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
07. Plastics and Articles & -2.638 & -14.36 & -3.552 & -25.64 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
08. Raw Hide and Skins, and Leather & -2.6397 & -8.5124 & -4.9531 & -28.077 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
09. Wood and Articles of Wood & -1.82 & -11.82 & -3.80 & -43.54 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
10. Pulp of Wood or of other Fibrous & -3.21 & -15.20 & -4.03 & -25.80 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
11. Textiles and Textile Articles & -1.69 & -22.22 & -3.11 & -38.11 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
12. Footwear and Headgear & -8.405 & -11.666 & -8.342 & -34.051 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
13. Stone, Plaster, and Cement & -1.979 & -15.872 & -3.835 & -38.5 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
14. Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals & -3.2 & -14.016 & -5.445 & -26.531 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
15. Base Metals and Articles & -2.29 & -14.703 & -3.036 & -23.98 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
16. Machinery and Mechanical & -5.203 & -22.38 & -8.954 & -50.895 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
17. Vehicles, Aircraft, and Vessels & -2.214 & -9.791 & -9.35 & -53.48 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
18. Optical and Photographic & -3.195 & -10.571 & -9.508 & -126.97 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
19. Arms and Ammunition & -3.581 & -14.195 & -11.76 & -33.367 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
20. Arts, Collectors, and Antiques & -4.099 & -12.62 & -10.767 & -39.554 & \multicolumn{1}{p{5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
1\%Critic. Value & -3.467 & -3.469 & -3.466 & -3.466 & \\
5\%Critic. Value & -2.877 & -2.878 & -2.877 & -2.877 & \\
10\%Critic. Value & -2.575 & -2.575 & -2.575 & -2.575 & \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}%
}
\end{table}
{\textbf{ADF-1st Diff}} &
n{1}{p{5.57em}}{\textbf{Level of
m}}{I(1)} \\
)} \\
\\
m}}{I(0)} \\
0)} \\
m}}{I(0)} \\
}{I(0)} \\
} \\
{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
(1)} \\
{I(1)} \\
{I(1)} \\
5.57em}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
7em}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
7em}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
em}}{I(1)} \\
em}}{I(1)} \\
em}}{I(1)} \\
m}}{I(1)} \\
7em}}{I(1)} \\
Coefficient Estimates
Particulars (Trade Share)
Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnR LnINF LnIP
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 34.15** 0.010* 0.33 -0.06** 0.536 -0.19 3.62** 0.137**
Ln Exports (0.37) 20.89** 0.018** 0.227 -0.002 -0.372 -0.014 2.46** 0.063
Ln Imports (0.63) 32.64** -0.008 0.446 -0.049* 0.893* -0.198 3.38** 0.326**
F-stat. Adj.R
88.7** 0.973
65.7** 0.972
61.8** 0.97
ADF- ADF-1st PP-1st Level of
Import Industries PP-Level
Level Diff Diff Integration
01. Live Animals -1.914 -11.65 -3.719 -33.93 I(0)
02. Vegetable
-1.828 -11.16 -4.67 -37.35 I(0)
Products
03. Animal, Oils and
-2.02 -14.08 -3.341 -29.44 I(0)
Waxes
04. Foodstuffs;
Beverages and -4.29 -16.84 -4.04 -17.79 I(0)
Tobacco
05. Mineral Products -2.99 -19.93 -2.76 -24.53 I(0)

06. Products of
-2.31 -14.94 -3.43 -39.94 I(0)
Chemical
07. Plastics and
-2.44 -50.82 -2.9 -10.01 I(1)
Articles
08. Raw Hide and
-3.85 -11.83 -7.41 -41.87 I(0)
Skins, and Leather
09. Wood and
-0.96 -5.71 -3.02 -40.57 I(1)
Articles of Wood
10. Pulp of Wood or
-2.49 -21.99 -2.59 -33.04 I(0)
of other Fibrous
11. Textiles and
-2.94 -9.79 -2.46 -20.25 I(1)
Textile Articles
12. Footwear and
-0.89 -12.01 -3.45 -34.67 I(0)
Headgear
13. Stone, Plaster,
-1.24 -9.8 -2.55 -41.97 I(1)
and Cement
14. Pearls, Precious
-7.09 -10.88 -12.09 -72.79 I(0)
Stones, Metals
15. Base Metals and
-2.29 -19.84 -2.44 -22.65 I(1)
Articles
16. Machinery and
-2.27 -17.39 -3.46 -33.15 I(0)
Mechanical
17. Vehicles, Aircraft,

-2.62 -14.8 -3.98 -37.93 I(1)
and Vessels
18. Optical and

-2.76 -10.79 -6.54 -63.14 I(0)
Photographic
19. Arms and
-5.85 -9.47 -9.6 -44.45 I(0)
Ammunition
20. Arts, Collectors,
-9.65 -11.33 -10.38 -88.65 I(0)
and Antiques
1%Critic. Value -3.467 -3.469 -3.466 -3.466
5%Critic. Value -2.877 -2.878 -2.877 -2.877
10%Critic. Value -2.575 -2.575 -2.575 -2.575
Diagnostic Statistics
Particulars (Trade Share) Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM

Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 5.48** 88.73** 1.594 1.045 7.46** S
Ln Exports (0.37) 7.89** 65.68** 0.1911 0.665 9.297** S
Ln Imports (0.63) 2.352 61.80** 1.6846 2.73 0.653 S
Particulars (Trade Share) Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM

CUMQ
S
S
S
CUMQ
Long-run Coefficient Estimates
Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnR LnINF
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 20.99** 0.006* -1.04** -0.05** 0.167** -0.94** 2.162**
Ln Exports (0.37) 19.94** 0.018** -0.019 -0.09** 0.224** -0.81** 1.208
Ln Imports (0.63) 21.14** -0.007 -1.155** -0.053** 0.115** -0.98** 2.19**
LnIP
0.084**
0.061
0.139**
Short-run Coefficient Estimates
LnDV LnDV LnV LnV LnNEX LnNEX LnNEX LnFDI LnFDI
Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.622** 0.356** 0.010* 0.328 1.025* -0.06**

Ln Exports (0.37) 0.447** 0.018** 0.227 1.035* 0.708 -0.002 0.042*
Ln Imports (0.63) 0.529** 0.259* -0.008 0.012 0.446 1.473** -1.560** -0.049*

LnIP LnIP LnIP ECM
Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.137** -1.627** (-6.75)
Ln Exports (0.37) 0.063 0.138 -0.173** -1.048** (-6.71)
Ln Imports (0.63) 0.326** 0.104 -0.042 -1.545** (-5.57)

LnIR LnIR LnIR LnRT LnRT LnRT
Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.536 0.27 -0.971** -0.19 0.307** 0.069

Ln Exports (0.37) -0.372 0.665 -0.930** -0.014 -0.114 0.155
Ln Imports (0.63) 0.893* 0.24 -0.827 -0.198 0.288 0.14
LnINF LnINF LnINF
3.62** -2.37**
2.46** -2.31** -2.573*
3.38**
Industry (Trade Coefficient Estimates
Share) Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP F-stat.
11-Textiles (0.59) 8.62** 0.013** 0.473* -0.025 0.229 0.181** 0.907* 0.215** 56.06**
02-Vegetable (0.11) -10.28 -0.001 2.698* 0.054 1.176 0.406 -0.7 0.105 20.19**
05-Minerals (0.05) 12.99** 0.031* -0.024 0.081 0.576 -0.396 7.77** 0.294 27.43**
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 20.29 -0.022 -4.137 0.065 0.283 -0.288 15.6** 0.101 29.47**
08-Skins and Leather
24.6** 0.044** 0.016 -0.047* -0.774 0.085 4.41** 0.263** 20.37**
(0.04708)
01-Live Animals
13.94** 0.018 -0.26 0.029 -0.015 0.085 1.604 0.056 93.47**
(0.034)
06-Chemicals (0.027) 9.45* -0.001 -1.842* 0.047 2.768** 0.078 -1.538 0.252 13.70**
15-Metals (0.023) 8.94 -0.011 1.087 -0.27** 0.642** -0.001 1.15 0.039 30.03**
07-Plastics (0.020) 3.18 -0.05** 2.055 -0.104 3.627** 0.655* -1.436 0.245 15.15**
18-Photographic
13.85** 0.025** -0.848* 0.057** 0.595* 0.556** 1.219 -0.171* 79.52**
(0.01831)
16-Machineries
33.82** 0.043** 1.909 -0.114 0.118 -0.288 -0.496 -0.713** 5.09**
(0.00665)
12-Footwears &
35.72** 0.079** -1.654 -0.120* 2.605** 0.028 3.66** -0.018 6.88**
Umbrellas (0.0043)
10-Pulps of Wood
31.2** -0.11** -1.358 -0.39** 2.66 1.28** -16.93** 0.172 11.31**
(0.0038)
17-Vehicles (0.0031) 62.3** 0.016 -7.00** -0.017 -5.47* -0.554 23.8** -0.218 10.9**
Industry (Trade Coefficient Estimates

Share) Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP F-stat.
03-Oils and Waxes
66.5** 0.029 2.752 -0.106 -1.95 0.1498 5.74** -0.824** 12.7**
(0.00213)
13-Stones and Cement
3.38 0.030** -0.861 0.037 1.038** 0.232 4.47** -0.054 28.79**
(0.00183)
09-Woods (0.0018) -4.74 0.031 1.527 0.074 -3.035* -0.28 4.19** 0.367 22.76**
19-Arms and
-12.66 -0.071 -1.093 -0.455 -0.073 0.561 -0.378 0.656 5.02**
Ammunition (0.00083)
14- Precious Stones

9.61 -0.18** -6.45 -0.376 6.34* 0.945 8.55* 0.779 8.76**
(0.00065)
20-Arts and Antiques
1.525 -0.28** -2.987 -0.082 1.125 -0.275 28.7** -0.765** 6.75**
(0.000477)
Adj. R
0.966
0.926
0.939
0.952
0.908
0.976
0.893
0.924
0.889
0.979
0.641
0.803
0.857
0.886
Adj. R
0.865
0.827
0.92
0.701
0.792
0.764
Industry (Trade Share)
Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM CUMQ
11-Textiles (0.59) 6.417** 56.05** 2.33 1.108 7.54** S S
02-Vegetable (0.11) 7.665** 93.47** 1.18 2.88 2.639 S S
05-Minerals (0.05) 5.915** 27.43** 1.679 2.864 2.399 S S
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 7.623** 29.47** 1.924 2.51 0.0082 S U
08-Skins and Leather (0.04708) 7.294** 20.37** 0.043 1.776 2.293 S S
01-Live Animals (0.034) 7.66** 93.47** 1.18 1.76 2.639 S S
06-Chemicals (0.027) 5.23** 13.70** 1.214 2.7 0.0299 S U
15-Metals (0.023) 4.145** 30.03** 1.0749 0.923 1.646 S S
07-Plastics (0.020) 5.05** 16640.4** 0.768 1.86 7.59** S S
18-Photographic (0.01831) 12.41** 79.59** 0.003 2.066 0.516 S U
16-Machineries (0.00665) 5.47** 12423.6** 1.809 0.796 0.693 S S
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (0.0043) 7.864** 6.886** 0.553 1.509 0.0404 S S
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 6.53** 11.31** 0.666 4.45** 0.879 S S
17-Vehicles (0.0031) 6.18** 5527.9** 0.5092 4.05 5.65** S U
03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) 3.91** 12.77** 2.7187 0.93 1.66 S S
Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM CUMQ
13-Stones and Cement (0.00183) 3.61** 28.79** 1.2411 0.707 0.0058 S S
09-Woods (0.0018) 3.43 22.76** 1.361 2.88** 7.68** S S
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.00083) 6.06** 5.02** 0.4942 4.57** 0.402 S S
14-Cultured Pearls & Precious Stones

3.26 8.76** 1.412 1.565 18.4** S S
(0.00065)
20-Arts and Antiques (0.000477) 5.32** 6.75** 2.73 2.74 1.175 S U
Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP
11-Textiles (0.59) 13.45** -0.012 -0.327 -0.039* 0.167** -0.202 0.967 0.004
02-Vegetable (0.11) -2.731 0.018** 0.999* 0.043 0.797** 1.17** -1.358 -0.014
05-Minerals (0.05) 6.69** 0.082** -0.995** 0.181** 1.475** -0.204 1.171* 0.009
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 29.53** -0.27 -20.08* 0.228 -1.101 -6.05** 28.17** -0.805
25.04** 0.05** 1.21* -0.40** 0.28** -0.64** -1.19 0.27**
(0.04708)
01-Live Animals (0.034) 21.34** -0.023 -3.707** 0.044 -0.023 -3.03** 8.70** -0.125
06-Chemicals (0.027) 5.099* -0.005 -2.505** 0.063 0.398** 0 2.86** -0.135**
15-Metals (0.023) 12.14* -0.084** 2.685 -0.165 0.871** -1.505* 1.56 0.053
07-Plastics (0.020) 1.919 -0.030** 0.002 -0.354** 0.419** 1.24** -0.956 0.041
18-Optical and Photographic
5.59** 0.015** 0.078 0.019 0.023 0.442** -0.351 0.046**
(0.01831)
16-Machineries (0.00665) 17.67** 0.023** 0.065 -0.202** 0.737** -0.429 -0.025 0.031
12-Footwears & Umbrellas
26.13** 0.093** 2.372 -0.325** 0.327** -0.788 -2.44 0.303**
(0.0043)
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 21.39** -0.028 -0.931 -0.191 0.338 -1.88** 3.34** 0.171*
17-Vehicles (0.0031) 45.29** 0.054 -7.596 -0.12 0.509 -5.26* 12.77* -0.132
03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) 36.75** -0.007 -2.080** -0.611** 0.918** -2.13** 3.167** 0.083

3.578 0.032** -0.912 0.039 1.099** 0.246 0.908 -0.176**
(0.00183)
09-Woods (0.0018) -4.51 0.058* -3.389** -0.014 0.186 0.459 3.99** -0.269**
19-Arms and Ammunition
-17.97 -0.22 -31.61* 0.988 -3.93* 0.795 28.03* -1.691
(0.00083)
14-Cultured Pearls & Precious
10.96 -0.539** -4.135 -0.820* 2.33** -2.21 9.75* -0.309
Stones (0.00065)
1.96 -0.386** -3.842 0.813 -3.48** -6.08 19.94 -0.984*
(0.000477)
Short-Run Coefficient Estimates
Industry (Trade Share) LnDV LnDV LnDV LnV LnV LnV LnV
11-Textiles (0.59) -0.079 -0.116 -0.38** 0.013** 0 0.010* 0.005
02-Vegetable (0.11) 2.481** 1.448** 0.52 -0.001 -0.032 -0.025
05-Minerals (0.05) 1.148** 0.881** 0.201 0.031* -0.014 -0.04** -0.04**
04-Foodstuff (0.052) -0.404 -0.67** -0.358* -0.022 0.022 0.016 0.104**
08-Leather (0.04708) 0.259** 0.044** -0.013*
01-Live Animals (0.034) -0.56** -0.55** -0.58** 0.018 0.003 0.003 0.016
06-Chemicals (0.027) 0.465** 0.544** 0.243 -0.001 0.021 -0.027*
15-Metals (0.023) -0.069 -0.02 -0.255* -0.011 0.035*
07-Plastics (0.020) 0.813** 0.299 -0.05** -0.04**
18-Photographic (0.01831) 0.993** 0.422** 0.025** 0.008 -0.009 -0.02**
16-Machineries (0.00665) 0.692** 0.318** 0.043**
12-Footwears (0.0043) -0.207 -0.248 -0.118 0.079** -0.028 -0.026 0.025
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 0.816** 1.654** 0.770** -0.11** -0.06**
17-Vehicles (0.0031) -0.242 -0.098 0.128 0.016 0.034 -0.025 -0.03
03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) 0.855** 0.537** 0.279** 0.03 -0.021 0.027 0.027
13-Stones and Cement (0.002) 0.030**
09-Woods (0.0018) 0.325 0.413** 0.175 0.031
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0008) -0.480* -0.369* -0.45** -0.071 -0.074 0.316**
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00065) 0.064 -0.370* -0.37** -0.18** 0.061 -0.071 0.207**
20-Arts and Antique (0.00047) -0.045 -0.034 0.291** -0.28** 0.016 0.187**

Industry (Trade Share) LnFDI LnFDI LnFDI LnIR LnIR LnIR LnRT
11-Textiles (0.59) -0.025 0.229 0.024 -0.566* 0.18**
02-Vegetable (0.11) 0.054 0.013 -0.13** 1.176 -3.85** -2.046 0.406
05-Minerals (0.05) 0.081 -0.007 -0.15** 0.576 0.643 -2.042 -0.396
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 0.065 0.283 1.351 -0.288
08-Leather (0.04708) -0.047** 0.055* 0.077** -0.774 1.259* -1.007* 0.085
01-Live Animals (0.034) 0.029 -0.015 0.085
06-Chemicals (0.027) 0.047 0.072 -0.003 2.768** -0.623 0.078
15-Metals (0.023) -0.271** 0.071 0.063 0.642** -0.001
07-Plastics (0.020) -0.104 0.185** 0.073 3.627** -2.119 -1.615 0.655*
18-Photographic (0.01831) 0.057** -0.046** 0.043* 0.595* -0.812* 0.55**
16-Machineries (0.00665) -0.114 0.017 0.213** 0.118 3.491 -3.38** -0.288
12-Footwears (0.0043) -0.120* 0.270** 0.098 2.605** -0.195 -1.452 0.028
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) -0.388** -0.099 -0.094 2.659 1.846 2.581 1.27**
17-Vehicles (0.0031) -0.017 0.336** 0.111 -5.474* 3.227 -0.743 -0.554
03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) -0.107 0.083 0.308** -1.95 4.738* -2.69** 0.15
13-Stones and Cement (0.002) 0.037 1.038** 0.232
09-Woods (0.0018) 0.074 -0.184* -3.035* 4.294* -2.436* -0.28
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0008) -0.455 -0.527* -0.262 -0.073 3.174 -15.0** 0.561
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00065) -0.376 0.446* -0.152 6.34* 0.945
20-Arts and Antique (0.00047) -0.082 -0.073 0.531** 1.125 -1.5 -3.994 -0.275

Industry (Trade Share) LnINF LnINF LnINF LnIP LnIP LnIP ECM
11-Textiles (0.59) 0.907* -1.680** 0.215** 0.11** -0.64** (-5.77)
02-Vegetable (0.11) -0.7 -10.65** 8.664* 0.105 -0.107 -0.043 -3.76** (-4.40)
05-Minerals (0.05) 7.776** -4.23 -3.359 0.294 0.251 -0.79** -1.94** (-6.08)
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 15.61** 3.189 -19.2** 0.101 1.02** -0.419 -0.68** (-2.13)
08-Leather (0.04708) 4.412** 0.263** -0.98** (-7.84)
01-Live Animals (0.034) 1.604 -8.481** 0.056 -0.65** (-3.73)
06-Chemicals (0.027) -1.538 0.333 -3.129 0.252 0.326* -1.85** (-5.77)
15-Metals (0.023) 1.15 0.039 -0.74** (-3.31)
07-Plastics (0.020) -1.436 -3.103 2.895 0.245 -0.197 0.79** -1.66** (-4.46)
18-Photographic (0.01831) 1.219 0.235 1.489* -0.171* -2.47** (-9.89)
16-Machineries (0.00665) -0.496 -8.149** -0.72** 0.134 -0.276 -1.91** (-6.06)
12-Footwears (0.0043) 3.66* -0.707 -0.054 -0.018 -0.199 0.082 -1.37** (-5.63)
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) -16.92** -9.454 13.92** 0.172 0.063 -0.484 -1.46** (-6.21)
17-Vehicles (0.0031) 23.81** -2.522 -19.3** -0.218 0.264 -0.638 -1.37** (-3.14)
03-Oils and Waxes (0.00213) 5.73** -0.83** 0.523 -0.62** -1.81** (-5.93)
13-Stones and Cement (0.002) 4.468** -0.054 -0.94** (-6.22)
09-Woods (0.0018) 4.197** 0.367 0.44 -0.782* -1.05** (-3.57)
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0008) -0.378 20.42 0.656 -1.028 3.59** -0.70** (-2.46)
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00065) 8.546* 0.779 3.08** -1.418 -0.87** (-2.63)
20-Arts and Antique (0.00047) 28.72** -0.76** -0.77** (-4.11)
LnNEX LnNEX LnNEX
0.473*
2.698* 3.880* -2.476
-0.024
-4.137 3.289 7.635**
0.016 -0.791 0.83
-0.26 2.054**
-1.842* 1.829
1.087 -1.365 1.244
2.055
-0.848* -1.593**
1.909
-1.654 -0.237 2.716
-1.358
-7.00** 6.404 7.581**
2.753 -1.781
-0.861
1.527 0.555 -6.325**
-1.093 -9.264 6.04
-6.452 14.809**
-2.987
LnRT LnRT
0.005 -0.028
-1.985** -0.89**
1.241* -0.016
0.179 -0.045
0.563** 0.484**
0.560* 0.092
0.835**
0.215 -0.84**
-0.39**
0.815** -0.64**
2.57** 2.832**
1.088 1.530**
0.292 1.778**
-0.502 0.694
-3.781** 3.763**
Industry (Trade Share) Constant LnV LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP F-stat.
5-Minerals (0.255) 71.76** 0.022 1.682 -0.111* -0.869 -0.049 11.52** 0.662** 26.55**
16-Machineries (0.16) 15.53** -0.021** -1.165** 0.129** 0.860* -0.324* 0.96 0.111* 48.81**
06-Chemicals (0.11) 13.69** 0.001 0.604 -0.066* 0.839 0.259 3.105** 0.104 23.14**
15-Metals (0.085) 21.94** -0.012 -0.532 0.018 1.23** -0.041 -0.164 -0.063 37.62**
11-Textiles (0.075) 18.55** -0.041* 0.092 -0.024 -1.829 -1.070** -0.982 0.238** 19.98**
2-Vegetables (0.06) 7.318 -0.056** -4.313** -0.007 2.973** -0.142 2.263 -0.508** 16.36**
17-Vehicles (0.06) 8.22** -0.033** 0.785 -0.001 2.065** -0.259 1.215 -0.148** 24.73**
07-Plastics (0.052) 62.96** -0.039** 0.04 -0.085 -2.39** 0.156 4.196** 0.435* 43.11**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 12.65** 0.014 -1.681* -0.193** 0.180** -0.297 10.31** 0.036 72.13**

50.78** -0.1 -7.78** 0.099 -0.692 -1.547 5.43 -0.115 3.036**
(0.038)
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 34.26** 0.033** -1.568** -0.094** 1.681** -0.043 3.003** 0.297** 39.09**
18-Optical and
51.14** 0.026* 1.594** 0.075 -3.37** 0.079 1.109 0.061 27.41**
Photographic (0.02)
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) -24.59** 0.02 1.25 0.478** 2.843** 1.134 -23.92** 0.632 5.74**
11.62** -0.025** -0.329 0.058* -0.935* -0.293 1.247* 0.109** 74.62**
(0.006)

Constant LnV LnNEX LnINF LnIP F-stat.
LnFDI LnIR LnRT
01-Live Animals
2.962 0.002 1.915 -0.15 0.772** 0.933* -9.49** 0.283** 38.46**
(0.004587)
09-Woods (0.0035) 15.69** -0.037* 0.184 0.043 2.461** -0.939** -3.58* -0.359 29.17**
33.06** 0.053 0.969 -0.131 -3.22** -0.419 6.44** 1.224** 5.72**
(0.0018)
12-Footwears &
-5.061 -0.025 2.377 -0.083 -2.76** 0.322 3.16** 0.034 57.2**
Umbrellas(0.0016)
-6.83 -0.048 0.785 0.358 4.43 -0.751 16.28** -0.720** 3.61**
(0.0014)
14- Precious Stones
-38.14** -0.156** -4.705 0.048 -0.444 2.115 1.935 0.605 3.46**
(0.000172)
Adj. R
0.939 5-Minerals (0.255) 0.939
0.961 16-Machineries (0.16) 0.961
0.906 06-Chemicals (0.11) 0.906
0.941 15-Metals (0.085) 0.941
0.868 11-Textiles (0.075) 0.868
0.883 2-Vegetables (0.06) 0.883
0.896 17-Vehicles (0.06) 0.896
0.971 07-Plastics (0.052) 0.971
0.925 03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 0.925
0.55 20-Arts and Antiques (0.038) 0.55
0.953 10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 0.953

0.926 0.926
(0.02)
0.655 04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 0.655
0.955 0.955
(0.006)
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 0.916
09-Woods (0.0035) 0.941

0.673
(0.0018)
12-Footwears &
0.955
Umbrellas(0.0016)
Adj. R 19-Arms and Ammunition
0.412
(0.0014)
14- Precious Stones
0.916 0.413
(0.000172)
0.941
0.673
0.955
0.412
0.413
Bound Adj. R Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM
5-Minerals (0.255) 6.82** 0.939 26.55** 2.19 2.19 0.38 S
16-Machineries (0.16) 7.80** 0.961 48.81** 0.31 1.31 0.17 U
06-Chemicals (0.11) 5.93** 0.906 23.14** 1.14 0.35 0.12 S
15-Metals (0.085) 6.13** 0.941 37.62** 2.06 1.33 0.26 S
11-Textiles (0.075) 3.71** 0.868 19.98** 0.39 1.21 3.77 S
2-Vegetables (0.06) 9.84** 0.883 16.36** 7.11** 1.59 0.18 S
17-Vehicles (0.06) 6.48** 0.896 24.73** 1.97 2.75 2.49 S
07-Plastics (0.052) 4.82** 0.971 43.11** 0.13 0.68 1.85 S
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 6.70** 0.925 72.13** 0.64 0.56 2.45 S
20-Arts and Antiques (0.038) 4.10** 0.55 3.03** 0.89 1.42 3.89 S
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 3.56** 0.953 39.09** 1.23 2.87** 0.31 U
18-Optical and Photographic (0.02) 10.12** 0.926 27.41** 1.98 2.71 0.95 S
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 4.33** 0.655 5.74** 0.09 1.13 0.15 S
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 9.21** 0.955 74.62** 0.01 0.45 1.12 S
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 14.85** 0.916 38.46** 0.45 0.84 6.66 S
09-Woods (0.0035) 4.46** 0.941 29.17** 0.34 2.31 1.49 S
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) 3.64** 0.673 5.72** 22.01** 1.14 9.14** S
12-Footwears & Umbrellas(0.0016) 5.31** 0.955 57.21** 4.19 2.14 0.81 S
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0014) 6.90** 0.412 3.61** 1.54 2.05 0.34 S
14- Precious Stones (0.000172) 7.84** 0.413 3.46** 1.08 3.42 0.49 S
CUMQ
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
U
S
U
U
S
S
S
S
U
S
S
S
S
5-Minerals (0.255) 40.75** -0.002 0.758 -0.429** 0.624** -3.076** 2.574** 0.398**
16-Machineries (0.16) 13.08** 0.023** -1.218* 0.295** -0.393** -0.273* 1.022 0.094**
06-Chemicals (0.11) 11.25** 0.001 0.497 -0.149** 0.224** 0.304 -0.675 0.124**
15-Metals (0.085) 19.11** 0.035** -0.463 0.016 -0.144 -0.720* 0.764 0.211**
11-Textiles (0.075) 20.03** -0.044* 1.255 -0.026 -0.685** -1.155* 0.525 0.257**
2-Vegetables (0.06) 4.087 -0.014 -7.62** 0.413** -0.502** -0.562 8.25** -0.284**
17-Vehicles (0.06) 11.26** -0.095** -3.317** 0.291** -0.302** -1.70** 6.79** -0.203**
07-Plastics (0.052) 15.80** -0.007 -0.075 -0.123** -0.156** -0.304 0.274 0.191**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 16.54** 0.018 -3.44** -0.253** 0.235** -0.389 3.212** 0.048
20-Arts and Antiques (0.038) 23.56** -0.047 -3.61** 0.101 -0.478 -1.737 4.92** 0.043
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 15.18** 0.015** -1.753** -0.041** 0.093* -0.492** 1.732** 0.130**
26.99** 0.052** 0.841** 0.04 -0.86** -1.66** 0.585 0.286**
(0.02)
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) -15.83** 0 0.8 0.56** 1.83** 0.73 0.65 -0.2
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 11.84** -0.004 -1.715** 0.059* -0.927** -0.09 1.270* 0.111**
Long-Run Coefficient Estimates

01-Live Animals (0.004587) 2.103 -0.021 -1.588 -0.107 0.548** 0.663* 0.534 0.201**
09-Woods (0.0035) 5.85** -0.044** -2.791** 0.082** -0.226** -0.350** 3.595** -0.03
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) 49.69** 0.137** 1.457 -0.837** -0.009 -2.449 -1.437 0.743**
12-Footwears &
-2.894 -0.036* -0.112 -0.048 -0.414** 0.184 1.810** 0.02
Umbrellas(0.0016)
-6.329 0.074 -7.259 1.419** -1.019** -3.59* 15.08** -0.667**
(0.0014)
14- Precious Stones (0.000172) -34.08** -0.140** -4.204 0.803** -0.396 1.89 4.555 -0.515**
Industry (Trade Share) LnDV LnDV LnDV LnV LnV LnV LnV
5-Minerals (0.255) 0.523** 0.267 0.256* 0.022 -0.022 0.040** 0.031
16-Machineries (0.16) 0.448** 0.397** -0.02** 0.018* -0.03** -0.014
06-Chemicals (0.11) 0.003 0.001 0.039 0.079 0.001 0.199
15-Metals (0.085) 0.185 -0.012 -0.005 -0.02 -0.03**
11-Textiles (0.075) 0.183 -0.041*
2-Vegetables (0.06) 0.517** -0.027 -0.263* -0.06** 0.009 -0.028 -0.029
17-Vehicles (0.06) -0.03** 0.04**
07-Plastics (0.052) 2.24** 0.893** 0.411 -0.04** -0.018 0.011 0.025*
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 0.014
20-Arts (0.038) 0.827** 0.848** 0.432* -0.1
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 1.08** 0.635** 0.253* 0.033**
18- Photographic (0.02) 0.568** 0.349** 0.026* -0.005 -0.029* -0.04**
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 1.033** 0.482** 0.02 0.15** 0.033 -0.14**
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) -0.03**
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 0.002 0.036 0.041 -0.07**
09-Woods (0.0035) 1.22** 0.599** 0.322* -0.037* 0.055**
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) -0.162 0.053 -0.013 -0.081** 0.038
12-Footwears (0.0016) 0.38 -0.079 -0.243* -0.025 -0.065** 0.046 0.045*
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0014) -0.048
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00017) -0.16**

Industry (Trade Share) LnFDI LnFDI LnFDI LnIR LnIR LnIR LnRT
5-Minerals (0.255) -0.111* 0.267** 0.002 -0.869 -0.049
16-Machineries (0.16) 0.129** -0.004 -0.037 0.860* -0.324*
06-Chemicals (0.11) 0.001 0.917 0.239 0.071 0.082
15-Metals (0.085) 0.018 1.234** -0.041
11-Textiles (0.075) -0.024 -1.829 0.477 -2.29** -1.07**
2-Vegetables (0.06) -0.007 -0.162** -0.12 2.97** -0.142
17-Vehicles (0.06) -0.001 -0.045 -0.096** 2.065** -0.259
07-Plastics (0.052) -0.085 0.263** 0.115** -2.39** 1.121 -0.899 0.156
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) -0.19** 0.180** -0.297
20-Arts (0.038) 0.099 -0.298* 0.379** -0.692 0.402 -1.405 -1.547
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) -0.09** 1.681** -1.51** -0.043
18- Photographic (0.02) 0.075 -3.37** 1.766 2.874** 0.079
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 0.478** 2.843** 1.134
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 0.058* -0.935* 1.196** -0.293
01-Live Animals (0.00458) -0.15 0.772** 0.933*
09-Woods (0.0035) 0.043 -0.104* 2.46** 2.736 -2.33* -0.939*
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) -0.131 0.037 0.295** -3.22** -0.419
12-Footwears (0.0016) -0.083 -2.77** 3.96** 0.322
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0014) 0.358 -0.63** -0.567** 4.43 -0.751
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00017) 0.048 -0.434** -0.444 2.115

LnINF LnINF LnINF LnIP LnIP LnIP ECM
5-Minerals (0.255) 11.52** 0.662** 0.049 0.019 -1.76** (-6.39)
16-Machineries (0.16) 0.96 -4.448** 4.143** 0.111* -1.18** (-7.74)
06-Chemicals (0.11) 0.326 0.01 0.021 0.08 0.00(-5.57)
15-Metals (0.085) -0.164 1.786 -2.729* -0.063 -0.022 0.274 -1.15** (-6.38)
11-Textiles (0.075) -0.982 -7.066 -0.49 0.238** -0.93** (-4.43)
2-Vegetables (0.06) 2.263 -0.51** -1.79** (-6.68)
17-Vehicles (0.06) 1.215 0.175 -4.502** -0.15** -0.73** (-5.41)
07-Plastics (0.052) 4.196** 3.619 -3.183 0.435* 0.21 0.09 -3.98** (-4.92)
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 10.32** 0.036 -0.76** (-7.47)
20-Arts (0.038) 5.435 -5.23 -10.073 -0.115 -0.18 -0.664 -2.15** (-4.71)
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 3.003* -1.407 1.651 0.297** -0.071 -0.24* -2.26** (-5.99)
18- Photographic (0.02) 1.109 0.061 0.183 -0.145 -1.89** (-9.01)
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) -23.9** 14.48* -19.7** 0.632 -1.136 0.721 -1.55** (-5.56)
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 1.247* 0.109** -0.98** (-7.96)
01-Live Animals (0.00458) -9.49** 0.283** -1.41** (-11.42)
09-Woods (0.0035) -3.587* -2.135 -8.94** -0.359 -0.212 -2.68** (-6.24)
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) 6.44** -4.571 7.77** 1.22** -0.66** (-4.08)
12-Footwears (0.0016) 3.164** 0.034 -1.75** (-5.15)
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.0014) 16.29** -0.72** -1.08** (-7.49)
14-Cultured Pearls (0.00017) 1.935 -11.009 23.29** 0.605 0.505 -0.897 -1.12** (-8.25)
LnNEX LnNEX LnNEX
1.682 5.648** -1.445
-1.165** 2.370** -2.044**
0.054 0.019 0.033
-0.532
0.092 5.456** -5.605**
-4.31** 4.578** -2.275
0.785
0.04 1.688 1.801
-1.68**
-7.787**
-1.568** 0.242 0.601
1.594**
1.25
-0.329 1.283**
1.915 -1.644 3.451**
0.184 0.092 1.267
0.969
2.377 -2.117 4.543**
0.785
-4.705
LnRT LnRT
1.289** 0.780**
0.481** -0.394*
0.854**
0.308 0.133
-0.679 1.268
0.633** -0.894**
1.292** 0.405
0.332* -0.361**
0.48 0.837*
Constant LnPCH LnNCH LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP F-stat.
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 29.236 -0.014 0.029* 0.751 -0.025 0.058 0.049 2.874** 0.299** 85.33**
Ln Exports (0.37) -17.97* 0.018** -0.022 0.559* 0.025 0.470* 0.388* 0.27 0.552** 240.0**
Ln Imports (0.63) 20.18* -0.031** 0.007 0.411 -0.012 0.447 0.17 4.105** 0.472** 67.76**
Constan LnPCH
t
Adj. R
0.982
0.995
0.978
LnNCH LnNEX LnINF LnIP F-stat. Adj. R

LnFDI LnIR LnRT
Bound Wald-S Wald-L Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM CUMQ
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 4.074** 4.53** 18.67** 0.613 2.78 0.0048 S S
Ln Exports (0.37) 27.18** 6.43** 15.35** 1.091** 1.3 0.778 S U
Ln Imports (0.63) 5.63** 5.70** 13.15** 1.38 2.73 0.011 S S
Constant LnPCH LnNCH LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 14.38** 0 0.027** 0.005 -0.048** 0.133** -0.308 0.908*
Ln Exports (0.37) -14.993 -0.038 0.080** 0.003 0.234** 0.005 1.443* 1.129
Ln Imports (0.63) 11.63** -0.018* 0.020* 0.114 -0.03 -0.001 -0.179 0.822
LnIP
0.147**
0.065**
0.203**
Particular (Trade Share)
LnDV LnDV LnPCH LnPCH LnPCH LnPCH LnNCH LnNCH LnNCH LnNCH
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 1.042** 0.534** -0.014 0.020** 0.029* -0.031* -0.017 -0.012
Ln Exports (0.37) 0.101 -0.241 0.018** 0.007 0.006 0.032* -0.022 -0.028** -0.016 -0.075**
Ln Imports (0.63) 0.64* 0.306 -0.03** 0.037** 0.007 -0.05** -0.031

LnNEX LnNEX LnNEX LnFDI LnFDI LnFDI LnIR LnIR LnIR LnRT
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) 0.751 1.688** -1.187** -0.025 0.058 2.19** -2.35** 0.049
Ln Exports (0.37) 0.559* 0.202 0.389 0.025 -0.047** -0.07** 0.47* 1.31** -2.14** 0.388*
Ln Imports (0.63) 0.411 2.228** -1.618** -0.012 0.447 1.241 -1.53** 0.17

LnRT LnRT LnINF LnINF LnINF LnIP LnIP LnIP ECM
-2.03** (-
Ln Trade Flows (1.00) -0.094 0.126 2.87** -2.045* -1.404 0.30**
6.38)
-1.20** (-
Ln Exports (0.37) -0.49** -0.45** 0.27 -0.968 -0.572 0.55** 0.432** 0.35**
4.65)
-1.735 (-
Ln Imports (0.63) -0.101 0.017 4.11** -1.31 -0.576 0.47** 0.121 0.074
4.18)
Industry (Trade Share) Constant LnPCH LnNCH LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP
11-Textiles (0.59) 5.68** 0.018** 0.054** 0.66** -0.008 -0.263 0.08 -0.118 0.18**
02-Vegetable (0.11) 44.84** -0.065* 0.129* 1.789 0.02 -0.657 -0.519 1.186 -0.41
05-Minerals (0.05) -2.36 0.02 0.022 -0.507 0.09 0.418 -0.107 7.540** 0.401*
04-Foodstuff (0.052) 36.85 0.024 0.062 -2.494 -0.307 0.55 -1.86** 12.06** 0.14
08-Skins and Leather (0.0471) 26.94** 0.047** 0.035** 0.225 -0.064** -0.798 0.002 4.33** 0.238**
01-Live Animals (0.034) 8.49* 0.015 0.037** -0.509 0.046 -0.084 0.139 1.167 0.132
06-Chemicals (0.027) -52.84** 0.006 -0.045 -1.95* 0.271** 1.537* 0.751* -5.54** 0.142
15-Metals (0.023) -30.84** -0.060* 0.008 -0.845 -0.061 0.35 0.085 -0.381 -0.255
07-Plastics (0.020) -37.9** -0.124** 0.008 -0.481 0.169* 1.396 1.38** -1.152 -0.265
-10.67 0.025 -0.025 -0.623 -0.046 0.668 1.53** 4.28** 0.288*
(0.018)
16-Machineries (0.0066) 52.46* 0.015 -0.179 4.54** -0.322** 0.162 -0.23 -1.928 -0.83**
12-Footwears & Umbrellas
-4.407 0.006 0.141** -2.05** 0.044 0.415 0.775** 7.67** 0.081
(0.0043)
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 56.95** -0.214** 0.152 -3.15 -0.286** 0.647 1.298 -7.798 0.328
17-Vehicles (0.0031) -100.6** 0.004 -0.065 -0.541 0.242** -0.735 -0.411 5.295 0.755**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.0022) -16.31 0.100* -0.148 1.253 0.06 -1.671 1.85** 4.354 -0.602*
Industry (Trade Share) Constant LnPCH LnNCH LnNEX LnFDI LnIR LnRT LnINF LnIP
13-Stones and Cement (0.00183) 26.02* 0.021 0.153* -0.904 -0.153 0.588 0.507 5.569 0.1
09-Woods (0.0018) -72.18** 0.101** -0.067 3.51* 0.285** -3.62** -0.225 -5.88 0.541
39.3 0.222* 0.323 -2.003 -0.44 -1.119 -0.75 -1.348 0.323
(0.0008)
14-Precious Stones (0.00065) 23.84 -0.329** 0.343* -13.6* 0.33 -4.925 0.088 26.61* -0.91
20-Arts and Antiques (0.00048) 221.4* -0.08 -0.175 -5.46 -1.109* 6.404 -2.362 47.64** -0.433
F-stat. Adj. R
86.8** 0.982
15.4** 0.913
43.1** 0.966
20.4** 0.935
19.3** 0.909
106.7** 0.977
11.6** 0.866
34.8** 0.958
17.4** 0.92
39.7** 0.965
4.68** 0.727
9.66** 0.859
10.7** 0.864
9.35** 0.84
12.52** 0.885
F-stat. Adj. R
8.60** 0.825
21.2** 0.929
5.47** 0.734
7.62** 0.819
3.04** 0.59
Diagnostic statistics
Bound Wald-S Wald-L
11-Textiles (0.59) 11-Textiles (0.59) 6.89** 7.47** 30.34**
02-Vegetable (0.11) 02-Vegetable (0.11) 4.69** 3.18** 0.11
05-Minerals (0.05) 05-Minerals (0.05) 13.59** 8.37** 6.51**
04-Foodstuff (0.05) 04-Foodstuff (0.052) 4.93** 5.41** 1.29
08-Skins and Leather (0.047) 08-Skins and Leather (0.0471) 4.60** 6.82** 0.03
01-Live Animals (0.03) 01-Live Animals (0.034) 6.92** 1.12 1.91
06-Chemicals (0.03) 06-Chemicals (0.027) 6.33** 3.67** 16.63**
15-Metals (0.02) 15-Metals (0.023) 7.303** 9.16** 7.94**
07-Plastics (0.02) 07-Plastics (0.020) 7.91** 5.70** 14.49**
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) 18-Optical and Photographic (0.018) 3.303* 3.52** 5.73**
16-Machineries (<1) 16-Machineries (0.0066) 4.67** 6.56** 15.67**
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (<1) 12-Footwears & Umbrellas (0.0043) 13.47** 5.98** 12.0**
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) 10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 6.79** 5.40** 2.34
17-Vehicles (<1) 17-Vehicles (0.0031) 3.05 8.94** 112.18**
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) 03-Oils and Waxes (0.0022) 4.23** 0.03 16.01**
13-Stones & Cement (<1) 3.21* 2.69** 0.25 0.75

09-Woods (<1) 3.12 2.58 8.87** 0.79
19-Arms & Ammunition (<1) 9.65** 3.06** 4.60** 1.49
14-Precious Stones (<1) 2.78 3.61** 7.08** 1.48
20-Arts & Antiques (<1) 5.16** 4.25** 13.88** 0.85
Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM CUMQ
0.64 1.83 0.03 S U
4.20** 3.14 0.26 S S
1.16 1.77 0.00 S S
0.30 5.58** 0.05 S S
0.59 1.65 3.59 S S
0.97 1.82 2.77 S S
8.15** 2.59 0.02 S S
1.26 3.22 0.00 S S
0.29 2.86 7.97** S S
0.57 3.26 0.00 S S
0.57 2.89 0.21 S S
0.88 1.89 1.52 S S
0.44 4.48** 0.47 S S
9.185** 2.77 14.4** S U
1.47 1.73 4.55** S S
1.88 0.01 0.82 S S

6.92 6.92** 0.92 S S
2.66 2.86 0.73 S U
2.17 17.80** 0.81 S S
5.14** 0.17 0.59 S S
Diagnostic statistics
F-Stat. Wald-S Wald-L
11-Textiles (0.59) 6.89** 7.47** 30.34**

02-Vegetable (0.11) 4.69** 3.18** 0.11
05-Minerals (0.05) 13.59** 8.37** 6.51**
04-Foodstuff (0.05) 4.93** 5.41** 1.29
08-Skins and Leather (0.047) 4.60** 6.82** 0.03
01-Live Animals (0.03) 6.92** 1.12 1.91
06-Chemicals (0.03) 6.33** 3.67** 16.63**
15-Metals (0.02) 7.30** 9.16** 7.94**
07-Plastics (0.02) 7.91** 5.70** 14.49**
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) 3.30* 3.52** 5.73**
16-Machineries (<1) 4.67** 6.56** 15.67**
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (<1) 13.47** 5.98** 12.0**
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) 6.79** 5.40** 2.34
17-Vehicles (<1) 3.05 8.94** 112.18**
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) 4.23** 0.02 16.01**
13-Stones & Cement (<1) 3.21* 2.69** 0.25
09-Woods (<1) 3.12 2.58 8.87**
19-Arms & Ammunition (<1) 9.65** 3.06** 4.60**
14-Precious Stones (<1) 2.78 3.61** 7.08**
20-Arts & Antiques (<1) 5.16** 4.25** 13.88**
Long-run
effect
Importing Industries Short-run Long-run

Long-run
Asymmetr Asymmetr
Cointegrat
ic Effect ic Effect
ion
(Wald-S) (Wald-L)
11-Textiles (59%) P P P
02-Vegetable (12%) P P NS
05-Minerals (7%) P P P
08-Skins and Leather (5%) P P NS
04-Foodstuff (3%) P P NS
01-Live Animals (2%) P NS P
15-Metals (2%) P P P
07-Plastics (2%) P P P
06-Chemicals (2%) P P P
18-Optical/Photograp. (2%) P P P
16-Machineries (1%) P P P
12-Footwear/Umbrell. (1%) P P P
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) P NS P
13-Stones & Cement (<1) P NS P
14-Precious Stones (<1) NS P P
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) P NS P
17-Vehicles (<1) NS P P
09-Woods (<1) NS P P
19-Arms/Ammunition (<1) P P P
20-Arts & Antiques (<1) P P P
Constant LnPCH LnNCH LnNEX
LnFDI LnIR
11-Textiles (0.59) 6.078** 0.019** 0.069** 1.019** -0.009 0.225**
02-Vegetable (0.11) 13.47** 0.053** 0.026 1.706 -0.112 0.834**
05-Minerals (0.05) -1.3 0.067** 0.099** -0.28 0.236** 1.377**
04-Foodstuff (0.05) 31.3 0 0.101 -3.578 -0.256 -0.184
08-Skins and Leather (0.047) 28.21** 0.049** 0.028 1.096 -0.42** 0.341**
01-Live Animals (0.03) 13.90* -0.006 0.060* -3.59** 0.075 -0.138
06-Chemicals (0.03) -45.48* -0.074** 0.161** -3.80** 0.734** -0.492
15-Metals (0.02) -82.04 -0.14 0.443 6.347 1.119 -0.743
07-Plastics (0.02) -16.83** -0.072** 0.022 -0.847 -0.056 0.025
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) -6.53 -0.042 -0.023 2.025 -0.028 -0.242
16-Machineries (<1) 38.72* -0.082 -0.234* -3.384 -0.163 0.378
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (<1) -4.538 0.050* 0.219** 6.79** -0.188 -0.525*
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) 36.57** 0.004 0 1.432 -0.57** 0.098
17-Vehicles (<1) -55.76** -0.145** 0.266** -3.414* 0.768** -0.47**
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) -7.824 -0.095** 0.044 -1.33* -0.25** 0.369*
13-Stones & Cement (<1) 13.61* 0.073** 0.061* 2.971 -0.26** 1.104**
09-Woods (<1) -88.11** 0.008 0.321** -2.737 1.03 -0.297
19-Arms & Ammunition (<1) 243.5 1.378 0.015 -138.18 0.798 -2.644
14-Precious Stones (<1) 15.99 -0.220** 0.131 2.235 -0.737* 1.057
20-Arts and Antiques (<1) 270.15 0.064 -1.171** -48.57 0.285 0.922
LnINF LnIP Importing Industries Increase Decrease
LnRT
Volatility Volatility
0.312 -0.181 0.093** 11-Textiles (59%) + +
-0.093 -1.421 0.092 02-Vegetable (12%) + NS
0.382 0.387 0.075** 05-Minerals (7%) + +
-4.165* 9.655 0.4 08-Skins and Leather (5%) + NS
-0.79** -1.251 0.249** 04-Foodstuff (3%) NS NS
-2.78** 9.24** -0.049 01-Live Animals (2%) NS +
1.894 7.284** -0.258* 15-Metals (2%) NS NS
0.226 9.818 0.005 07-Plastics (2%) - NS
1.560** 1.979* -0.077 06-Chemicals (2%) - +
1.942* -3.403* 0.142* 18-Optical/Photograp. (2%) NS NS
-1.994 2.986 -0.245 16-Machineries (1%) NS -
0.722 -4.135* 0.448** 12-Footwear/Umbrell. (1%) + +
-2.523* 1.07 0.437** 03-Oils and Waxes (<1) - NS
0.267 12.25** -0.017 13-Stones & Cement (<1) + +
0.887** 2.555* -0.01 14-Precious Stones (<1) - NS
0.224 -3.529 0.125 10-Pulps of Wood (<1) NS NS
4.939* 5.478 -0.476* 17-Vehicles (<1) - +
-13.987 107.86 -7.74 09-Woods (<1) NS +
-6.593* 15.33 0.155 19-Arms/Ammunition (<1) NS NS
-26.42 58.69 -3.133 20-Arts & Antiques (<1) NS -

ΔPCHt ΔPCHt-1 ΔPCHt-2 ΔPCHt-3 ΔNCHt ΔNCHt-1 ΔNCHt-2 ΔNCHt-3
11-Textiles (0.59) 0.018** 0.054** -0.004 0.019** -0.015

02-Vegetable (0.11) -0.065* -0.062 0.025 -0.10** 0.129* 0.063 -0.118* 0.09
05-Minerals (0.05) 0.02 -0.045* -0.03 0.022 0.014 -0.03 -0.120**
04-Foodstuff (0.05) 0.024 0.149* -0.098 0.109 0.062 -0.142 -0.036 -0.14
08-Skins and Leather (0.047) 0.047** 0.035** -0.033* 0.022
01-Live Animals (0.03) 0.015 0.037**
06-Chemicals (0.03) 0.006 -0.045 0.067 -0.067* -0.139**
15-Metals (0.02) -0.06* 0.091** 0.110** -0.17** 0.008 -0.024 -0.197** 0.063
07-Plastics (0.02) -0.12** -0.06 0.066* 0.008 0.113* -0.156** -0.100**
18-Optical & Photographic (0.02) 0.025 -0.004 -0.027 0.083** -0.025 -0.011 0.04 -0.097**
16-Machineries (<1) 0.015 -0.003 0.143** 0.054 -0.179 0.072 -0.098
12-Footwears & Umbrellas (<1) 0.006 -0.07** 0.008 0.054* 0.141** 0.005 -0.104**
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) -0.22** -0.0519 -0.0757 0.1515
17-Vehicles (<1) 0.004 0.005 0.134** -0.065 0.109 -0.304** -0.204**
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) 0.100* -0.028 -0.029 0.155** -0.148 -0.08 0.115 -0.142*
13-Stones & Cement (<1) 0.021 -0.043 -0.056 0.153*
09-Woods (<1) 0.101** -0.067 -0.003 0.032 -0.136
19-Arms & Ammunition (<1) 0.222* 0.323 -0.062 0.968**
14-Precious Stones (<1) -0.33** 0.343* 0.31 -0.355 0.32
20-Arts and Antiques (<1) -0.08 0.447** -0.175 -0.613* 0.388 0.354
Short-run effect
Short-run
Importing Industries Increase Decrease Asymmetr
ECMt−1
Volatility Volatility ic Effect
(Wald-S)
-0.94** (-5.77) 11-Textiles (59%) + +
-0.69** (-3.89) 02-Vegetable (12%) - M
-0.80** (-7.85) 05-Minerals (7%) - -
-0.82** (-2.42) 08-Skins and Leather (5%) + M
-0.95** (-7.88) 04-Foodstuff (3%) + NS
-0.61** (-3.46) 01-Live Animals (2%) NS +
-0.95** (-4.32) 15-Metals (2%) M -
-0.376 (-1.11) 07-Plastics (2%) M M
-0.69** (-6.65) 06-Chemicals (2%) NS -
-1.64** (-2.47) 18-Optical/Photograp. (2%) NS -
-1.35** (-2.68) 16-Machineries (1%) + NS
-0.97** (-5.23) 12-Footwear/Umbrell. (1%) - M
-0.57** (-6.06) 03-Oils and Waxes (<1) + -
-0.91** (-15.2) 13-Stones & Cement (<1) NS -
-0.69** (-7.06) 14-Precious Stones (<1) - +
-0.98** (-4.68) 10-Pulps of Wood (<1) - NS
-0.82** (-2.30) 17-Vehicles (<1) + -
-0.81** (-0.48) 09-Woods (<1) + NS
-1.49** (-4.09) 19-Arms/Ammunition (<1) + +
-0.82** (-3.19) 20-Arts & Antiques (<1) + -
Short-run effect
Importing Industries Short-run
Increase Decrease
Asymmetric Effect
Volatility Volatility
(Wald-S)
11-Textiles (59%) + + P
02-Vegetable (12%) - M P
05-Minerals (7%) - - P
08-Skins and Leather (5%) + M P
04-Foodstuff (3%) + NS P
01-Live Animals (2%) NS + NS
15-Metals (2%) M - P
07-Plastics (2%) M M P
06-Chemicals (2%) NS - P
18-Optical/Photograp. (2%) NS - P
16-Machineries (1%) + NS P
12-Footwear/Umbrell. (1%) - M P
03-Oils and Waxes (<1) + - NS
13-Stones & Cement (<1) NS - NS
14-Precious Stones (<1) - + P
10-Pulps of Wood (<1) - NS NS
17-Vehicles (<1) + - P
09-Woods (<1) + NS P
19-Arms/Ammunition (<1) + + P
20-Arts & Antiques (<1) + - P
Long-run effect
Long-run
Long-run Increase Decrease
Asymmetric Effect
Cointegration Volatility Volatility
(Wald-L)
P + + P
P + NS NS
P + + P
P + NS NS
P NS NS NS
P NS + P
P NS NS P
P - NS P
P - + P
P NS NS P
P NS - P
P + + P
P - NS P
P + + P
NS - NS P
P NS NS P
NS - + P
NS NS + P
P NS NS P
P NS - P
Industry Coefficient Estimates
(Trade
Share) Constant
05---
Mineral
Products
30.60** -0.011 0.067 0.709 -0.033 -0.313 0.128
(0.255)
16---
Machinery
and
Mechanical
43.26** -0.002 -0.093** 0.48 0.116** 0.999** -0.178
Appliances
(0.1617)
06---
Products of
Chemical
or Allied
-37.45** -0.004 0.005 -0.9 0.015 0.577 0.752**
Industries
(0.112)
15---Base
Metals and
Articles or 57.55** -0.027* -0.178** 2.22** 0.056 1.850** 0.209
Base Metal
(0.0846)
11---
Textiles
and Textile 49.53** -0.156** 0.033 -0.397 -0.154* -1.635 -1.59**
Articles
(0.075)
02---
Vegetable
Products
47.51** -0.132** 0.003 -3.564 -0.081 2.44 -0.611
(0.0593)
17---
Vehicles,
Aircraft,
Vessels and
Associated
100.7** 0.047 0.039 4.58 -0.55** 1.82 0.783
Transport
Equipment
(0.0585)
07---
Plastics and
Articles
thereof;
Rubber 29.15** -0.014 0.005 0.742 -0.10** -0.058 -0.018
and
Articles
thereof
(0.052)
03---
Animal or
Vegetable
Fats, Oils
-138.5** 0.022 -0.306* 0.687 -0.263* 4.509 1.35
and Waxes
(0.0428)
20---Works
of Arts,
Collectors,
Pieces,
Antiques 20.29 -0.136 0.390** -6.82** 0.187 2.419 -1.756
and Special
Transactio
ns NES
(0.0372)
10---Pulp of
Wood or of
other
Fibrous 70.59** 0.045** 0.129** -0.293 -0.21** 1.405 -1.09**
Cellulosic
Material
(0.0158)
18--Optical,
Photograph
ic,
Cinematogr
apher, 50.53** 0.033 0.071 1.668 0.076 -3.84** -0.561
Measuring
Precision
Apparatus
(0.0152)
04---
Prepared
Foodstuffs;
Beverages,
Spirits, 220.2** -0.127* -0.134 -0.285 -0.40** 6.88** -0.487
Vinegar
and
Tobacco
(0.0119)
13---
Articles of
Stone,
Plaster,
Cement,
Asbestos,
92.80** -0.029 0.103 -0.287 0.138* -1.499* -1.54**
Mica or
similar
Materials
(0.00596)
01---Live
Animals
and
Animals
11.09 -0.054 -0.231* 1.036 -0.42** 4.12** 3.377**
Products
(0.00459)
09---Wood
and
Articles of 33.84** -0.075** 0.081 0.24 0.07 1.618 -1.32**
Wood
(0.0035)
08---Raw
Hide and
Skins,
Leather,
Fur skins 21.45 0.134** -0.175 7.49** -0.16 -1.98 1.458*
and
Articles
thereof
(0.00172)
12---
Footwear,
Headgear,
Umbrellas, -35.99** -0.107** 0.079 -0.043 -0.01 -1.667 0.434
Walking
Sticks etc.
(0.00162)
19---Arms
and
Ammunitio
n, Parts
and
-76.95* -0.005 -0.477* 1.247 1.175** -3.10** -1.131
Accessories
thereof
(0.0014)
14---
Natural or
Cultured
Pearls,
Precious or
Semi-
-28.39 0.004 -0.303** -4.809 -0.029 -0.282 2.051
Precious
Stones,
Metals
(0.00017)
F-Stat.
11.007** 0.812** 29.88** 0.947
-1.975* 0.261 54.66** 0.971
4.498** 0.268 25.82** 0.946
-2.194 0.305 34.59** 0.955
1.299 0.629** 18.70** 0.905
7.116* -0.24 12.63** 0.894
3.473 0.075 14.31** 0.921
2.36** 0.328** 53.72** 0.965

-0.989 1.072* 27.27** 0.957
16.82** 0.554 2.70** 0.468
-0.636 0.232 39.55** 0.966
-0.037 0.071 19.44** 0.919
-7.037 0.021 7.43** 0.784
-0.745 -0.208 31.82** 0.96
3.102 0.969** 26.63** 0.952

-5.42** -0.56** 25.29** 0.942
-5.854 1.408** 4.88** 0.727
-0.555 -0.191 70.71** 0.976
31.98** 2.44** 2.76** 0.439
1.127 0.276 3.51** 0.447

Industry Diagnostic statistics
(Trade Wald Jarque-
Share) Bound Test Bera
LM RESET CUM
05---
Mineral
Products
9.17** 29.88** 0.434 5.024** 1.452 S
(0.2551)
16---
Machinery
and
Mechanical
11.43** 54.66** 1.205 1.061 4.62** S
Appliances
(0.1617)
06---
Products of
Chemical
or Allied
7.09** 25.82** 1.144 3.84 0.05 S
Industries
(0.112)
15---Base
Metals and
Articles or 6.91** 34.59** 0.771 3 0.176 S
Base Metal
(0.0846)
11---
Textiles
and Textile 7.02** 18.70** 2.774 1.969 2.212 S
Articles
(0.0751)
02---
Vegetable
Products
6.75** 12.63** 20.27 5.12 0.246 S
(0.0593)
17---
Vehicles,
Aircraft,
Vessels and
Associated
2.689 14.31** 1.057 2.06 0.769 S
Transport
Equipment
(0.0585)
07---
Plastics and
Articles
thereof;
Rubber 5.23** 53.72** 0.928 2.22 0.047 S
and
Articles
thereof
(0.052)
03---
Animal or
Vegetable
Fats, Oils
3.73** 27.27** 8.69** 3.778 1.346 S
and Waxes
(0.04279)
20---Works
of Arts,
Collectors,
Pieces,
Antiques 3.33 2.69** 2.201 4.39** 0.018 S
and Special
Transactio
ns NES
(0.0372)
10---Pulp of
Wood or of
other
Fibrous 11.17** 39.55** 1.384 0.968 3.86** S
Cellulosic
Material
(0.0158)
18---
Optical,
Photograph
ic,
Cinematogr
apher,
8.29** 19.44** 0.535 1.25 0.237 S
Measuring,
Precision
Apparatus
(0.0152)
04---
Prepared
Foodstuffs;
Beverages,
Spirits, 7.22** 7.43** 3.279 2.94 1.055 S
Vinegar
and
Tobacco
(0.0119)
13---
Articles of
Stone,
Plaster,
Cement, 3.62** 31.81** 1.626 1.174 0.995 S
Asbestos,
Mica
Materials
(0.00596)
01---Live
Animals
and
Animals
5.797** 26.63 1.002 0.949 0.002 S
Products
(0.00459)
09---Wood
and
Articles of 6.24** 25.28** 0.017 3.12 1.65 S
Wood
(0.00354)
08---Raw
Hide and
Skins,
Leather,
Fur skins 2.45 4.88** 0.245 1.088 5.97** S
and
Articles
thereof
(0.0017)
12---
Footwear,
Headgear,
Umbrellas, 6.06** 70.71** 0.1898 2.65 0.246 S
Walking
Sticks etc.
(0.00162)
19---Arms
and
Ammunitio
n, Parts
and
5.55** 2.76** 6.818 3.92** 3.247** S
Accessories
thereof
(0.0014)
14---
Natural or
Cultured
Pearls,
Precious or
Semi-
6.75** 3.51** 0.051 2.355 0.895 S
Precious
Stones,
Metals
(0.00017)
CUMQ
U
S
S
S
S
F-sta. Adj. R Wald-S
5-Minerals (0.255) 9.17** 0.95 3.21**

16-Machineries (0.16) 11.43** 0.97 6.22**
06-Chemicals (0.11) 7.09** 0.95 4.39**
15-Metals (0.085) 6.91** 0.96 7.69**
11-Textiles (0.075) 7.02** 0.91 4.68**
2-Vegetables (0.06) 6.75** 0.89 4.74**
17-Vehicles (0.06) 2.689 0.92 10.72**
07-Plastics (0.052) 5.23** 0.97 1.28
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) 3.73** 0.96 7.40**
20-Arts and Antiques (0.038) 3.33 0.47 3.92**
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 11.17** 0.97 6.77**
18-Photographic (0.02) 8.29** 0.92 3.90**
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 7.22** 0.78 4.06**
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 3.62** 0.96 3.60**
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 5.797** 0.95 5.06**
09-Woods (0.0035) 6.24** 0.94 1.71
08-Skins and Leather (0.002) 2.45 0.73 5.03**
12-Footwears & Umbrellas(0.002) 6.06** 0.98 4.87**
19-Arms and Ammunition (0.001) 5.55** 0.44 3.23**
14- Precious Stones (0.0001) 6.75** 0.45 3.22**
Cointegr
Wald-L Wald-L Wald-S
ation
29.19** P LC P
25.34** P LC P
31.99** P LC P
21.09** P LC P
5.70** P LC P
9.32** P LC P
0.92 NS P
7.01** P LC NS
35.33** P LC P
0.89 NS P
0.31 LC P
5.61** P LC P
30.92** P LC P
0.72 LC P
19.27** P LC P
2.39 LC NS
0.86 NS P
29.83** P LC P
0.93 LC P
2.35 LC P
Table 6: Long-Run Coefficient Estimates of Nonlinear Industry-Level Import Model
Industry (Trade Share) Constant PCHt NCHt LnNEXt LnFDIt LnIRt
5-Minerals (0.255) 24.14** -0.030+ 0.053 1.036 -0.346** 0.393**

16-Machineries (0.16) 23.32** 0.036** -0.022 0.125 0.113** -0.256**
06-Chemicals (0.11) -31.12** -0.043** 0.128** 1.335 0.212 -0.267**
15-Metals (0.085) 23.03** -0.011** -0.081** 0.283 -0.025 -0.014
11-Textiles (0.075) 59.46** 0.039 -0.072 4.056 -0.520** -0.19
2-Vegetables (0.06) 22.41* 0.001 -0.086* -6.075** 0.164 -0.325
17-Vehicles (0.06) 40.50** -0.004 -0.176** 3.034 -0.741** 0.927**
07-Plastics (0.052) 10.7** -0.011** 0.012 -0.214 -0.063** -0.075**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.043) -88.14** -0.222** 0.079 -1.117 0.586** -0.628
20-Arts and Antiques (0.038) 6.926 -0.038 0.007 -2.328** 0.266** -0.351
10-Pulps of Wood (0.0158) 24.89** 0.061** 0.046** -0.953* -0.165** 0.322**
18-Photographic (0.02) 26.98** 0.088** 0.107** 1.737** 0.041 -0.738**
04-Foodstuffs (0.012) 122.42** -0.006 -0.529** -4.70** -0.819** 1.999**
13-Stones and Cement (0.006) 44.09** 0.084** 0.021 -3.08** -0.126 -0.546**
01-Live Animals (0.004587) 7.753 -0.297** -0.543* -4.618* -0.319 -0.03
09-Woods (0.0035) 10.41** -0.006 0.011 -1.293** -0.034 -0.117
08-Skins and Leather (0.0018) 29.23 -0.015 -0.125 19.70** -1.679** 0.096
12-Footwears &
-9.09** -0.016** 0.072** -0.937* 0.023 -0.510**
Umbrellas(0.0016)
-46.15* -0.003 0.054 -11.24** 2.072** -1.860**
(0.0014)
14- Precious Stones (0.000172) -24.99 -0.167** -0.267** -4.233 0.792** -0.248
A. **indicate significance level at 5%. *indicate significance level at 10%. B. Pch=Positive changes in volatility, NCH=Negati
Exchange rate volatility, NEX=Nominal exchange rate, FDI=Foreign direct investment, IR=Interest rate, RT=remittances, IN
IP=industrial production. C. Trade share is the percentage proportionate share of each industry in the total trade over the samp
The description of each industry is provided in the notes of Table ??.
stry-Level Import Model
LnRTt LnINFt LnIPt PCH NCH
-2.137** 2.860** 0.446** + NS

-0.267 -1.673** 0.188** + NS
2.841** -0.616 0.109 - +
-0.39 -1.410* 0.205** - -
-2.796** -4.479 0.756** NS NS
-1.194 5.699** -0.198 NS -
0.339 -7.392** 0.284** NS -
-0.134 0.754** 0.163** - NS
7.324** -0.868 0.065 - NS
-0.931** 4.707** -0.036 NS NS
-1.055** 0.858 0.236** + +
-1.735** -0.02 0.351** + +
-7.880** 4.224 -0.095 NS -
-2.998** 4.151** 0.128* + NS
2.458 -2.084 -0.086 - -
-0.678** 2.597** 0.088** NS NS
4.315 -27.50** 1.328** NS NS
-0.073 4.054** 0.097** - +
-0.679 16.88** -0.96** NS

NS
1.805 3.143 -0.61** - -
changes in volatility, NCH=Negative changes in

R=Interest rate, RT=remittances, INF=Inflation,
ustry in the total trade over the sample period. D.
Industry (Trade Share) LnΔIMt-1 LnΔIMt-2 ΔPCHt ΔPCHt-1 ΔPCHt-2 ΔPCHt-3 ΔNCHt
5-Minerals (0.25) 0.162 -0.0113 0.0177 0.045 0.0666
16-Machineries (0.16) 0.631** 0.674** -0.002 -0.014 -0.035** -0.04** -0.09**
06-Chemicals (0.11) -0.004 0.042** 0.005
15-Metals (0.08) 1.21** 0.87** -0.027* -0.18**
11-Textiles (0.07) -0.16** 0.061 0.049 -0.064 0.033
2-Vegetables (0.06) 0.688** 0.127 -0.13** 0.062 -0.017 -0.052 0.003
17-Vehicles (0.06) 1.38** 0.331 0.047 0.083 -0.21** 0.216** 0.039
07-Plastics (0.05) 1.288** 0.736** -0.014 0.017 0.028 0.005

03-Oils and Waxes (0.04) 0.583 0.622 0.022 -0.026 0.045 0.189* -0.31*
20-Arts and Antique (0.04) 1.425** 1.066** -0.136 0.232* -0.138 0.39**
10-Pulps of Wood (0.02) 1.61** 1.13** 0.045** 0.041* -0.065** -0.047* 0.129**
18-Photographic (0.02) 0.474 0.166 0.033 0.027 -0.002 -0.12** 0.071

04-Foodstuffs (0.01) 0.668** 0.257 -0.127* -0.134
13-Stones and Cement (<1) 1.205** 0.599 -0.029 0.075** -0.028 -0.14** 0.103
01-Live Animals (<1) -0.265 -0.318 -0.054 -0.096 0.051 0.327** -0.231*
09-Woods (<1) 1.627** 0.919** -0.07** 0.048 0.046 -0.16** 0.081
08-Skins Leather (<1) 0.201 0.691* 0.134** -0.26** -0.123 0.209** -0.175
12-Footwears (<1) 2.122** 1.006** -0.11** -0.034 0.13*** -0.09** 0.079

0.423** -0.005 -0.477*
(<1)
14-Cultured Pearls &

0.004 -0.30**
Precious Stones (<1)
ΔNCHt-1 ΔNCHt-2 ΔNCHt-3 PCH NCH
NS NS
- -
-0.08** -0.075** -0.029

+ -
-0.033 -0.04
- -
-0.107 -0.204** 0.125**

- both
-0.06 -0.108 0.138* - -
-0.202* 0.31** both
both
-0.01 -0.039 NS
-0.09 -0.106 -0.28** + -
-0.191 0.173 0.151

+ +
-0.055 0.088** both
both
-0.034 -0.068 -
0.297** 0.182 - +
-0.032 0.051 0.112**

both +
0.281** 0.132 -0.25** + both
0.046 0.01 0.118**

- +
0.13 0.188
both
-0.053 -0.186** 0.07

both -
(0.592**) -0.541** 0.261 NS -
NS -
Table8(Continued)
LnΔNEXt LnΔNEXt−1 LnΔNEXt−2 LnΔFDIt LnΔFDIt−1
5-Minerals (0.25) 0.709 4.028** -1.945 -0.033 0.168**

16-Machineries (0.16) 0.480 2.292** -2.94** 0.17**
06-Chemicals (0.11) -0.900 -1.481 2.763** 0.015 -0.036
15-Metals (0.08) 2.218** 3.73** -3.31** 0.056 0.002
11-Textiles (0.07) -0.397 8.178** -7.989** -0.154*
2-Vegetables (0.06) -3.560 7.92** -2.311 -0.081 -0.103
17-Vehicles (0.06) 4.580 -0.809 -1.136 -0.55** 0.192
07-Plastics (0.05) 0.742 0.238 -0.483 -0.10**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.04) 0.687 -6.88** 1.575 -0.263* -0.306*
20-Arts and Antique (0.04) -6.8** 0.187 -0.52**
10-Pulps of Wood (0.02) -0.293 -1.498 -2.286 -0.21** -0.068
18-Photographic (0.02) 1.668 1.040 -2.083* 0.076
04-Foodstuffs (0.01) -0.285 -3.400 -3.712 -0.40** 0.121
13-Stones and Cement (<1) -0.287 3.87** -1.780 0.138* 0.003
01-Live Animals (<1) 1.036 -2.024 8.866** -0.42** 0.182

09-Woods (<1) 0.240 0.070 -0.062
08-Skins Leather (<1) 7.488** 3.649 -3.684 -0.160 0.455**
12-Footwears (<1) -0.043 -0.695 6.131** -0.010
1.247 25.51** 1.17** -0.89**
(<1)
-4.809 -0.029 (0.453**)
ued)
LnΔFDIt−2 LnΔIRt LnΔIRt−1 LnΔIRt−2 LnΔRTt
0.018 -0.314 0.482 -0.846 0.128

0.99** -0.178
0.001 0.577 -0.456 0.076 0.75**
-0.08** 1.85** 0.982 0.209
-1.635 6.877** -7.11** -1.59**
-0.077 2.440 -0.611
0.436** 1.820 7.30* -8.69* 0.783
-0.058 0.827 -0.910 -0.018
-0.146 4.510 1.288 -4.835 1.350
2.419 -1.756
0.123** 1.405 2.978 -4.541** -1.09**
-3.84** 2.990 1.260 -0.560
0.407** 6.88** -0.487
0.113* -1.50* 4.59** -2.390 -1.5**
-0.146 4.1** -1.904 1.786 3.37**

0.155** 1.618 3.872 -3.022 -1.32**
0.289** -1.980 -9.66** 7.355** 1.458*
-1.667 3.979** 0.434
(1.069**) -3.10** -1.131
-0.280 2.051
LnΔRTt-1 LnΔRTt-2 LnΔINFt LnΔINFt-1 LnΔINFt-2
5-Minerals (0.25) 0.515 0.1855 11.0**
16-Machineries (0.16) -0.008 0.263* -1.97* -3.63** 3.401*
06-Chemicals (0.11) -1.1** -0.961** 4.49** 4.124* 1.763
15-Metals (0.08) 0.389 -2.194 -0.047 -5.97**
11-Textiles (0.07) 1.299 -10.7** -5.854
2-Vegetables (0.06) 0.907 0.751 7.12* -7.045 -3.771
17-Vehicles (0.06) 0.127 0.169 3.47 -22.9** 24.85**
07-Plastics (0.05) 2.36**
03-Oils and Waxes (0.04) -1.9** -2.34** -0.989 10.55**
20-Arts and Antique (0.04) 16.8** -17.8**
10-Pulps of Wood (0.02) 1.107** -0.552** -0.636 -4.858 6.837*
18-Photographic (0.02) 1.02** 0.288 -0.037
04-Foodstuffs (0.01) 3.81** 4.58** -7.037
13-Stones and Cement (<1) 1.55** 1.17** -0.745 -4.71 -4.127
01-Live Animals (<1) 0.011 -0.226 3.102 4.479
09-Woods (<1) -5.423** 1.091 -12.22**
08-Skins Leather (<1) -5.854 -2.98 22.03**
12-Footwears (<1) -0.555 -1.469 -11.17**
19-Arms and Ammunition (<1) 31.9** -44.3** -14.83
14-Cultured Pearls & Precious

1.127 -15.71 27.357**
Stones (<1)
LnΔIPt LnΔIPt-1 LnΔIPt-2 ECMt-1
0.81** 0.089 0.1684 -0.96** (-7.66)
0.261 0.044 -0.049 -0.89** (-8.11)
0.268 0.623 0.022 -0.86** (-6.76)
0.305* 0.109 0.351** -0.96** (-7.13)
0.63** -0.83** (-5.36)
-0.24 0.049 -0.396 -0.92** (-5.22)
0.075 -0.32 0.395 -0.51 (-2.82)
0.33** -1.58** (-5.73)
1.07** 1.41** 0.928* -0.98** (-5.39)
0.554 -0.515 -0.986 -0.93** (-5.57)
0.232 -0.54** -1.01** (-7.04)
0.071 0.116 -0.295 -0.87** (-4.50)
0.021 -0.755 -0.98** (-6.39)
-0.208 -0.334 -0.63** -0.74** (-3.54)
0.97** 0.880* 0.387 -1.43** (-3.22)
-0.56** -0.73** -0.75** (-6.14)
1.408** 0.256 0.225 -0.73** (-2.56)
-0.191 -0.95** (-6.27)
2.44** -1.66** (-6.81)
0.276 0.625 -0.938 -0.51** (-8.49)

Long-Term Coefficient Estimates
Particulars
LnV PCH NCH Wald-L
Ln Aggregate Trade 0.006 0 0.027** 18.67**
Ln Export 0.018** -0.038 0.08** 15.35**
Ln Import -0.007 -0.018 0.02 13.15**

Short-Term Coefficient Estimates
Particulars LnV PCH PCH NCH NCH Wald-S
Ln Trade 0.01 -0.014 0.020** -0.031 -0.012 4.53**
Ln Export 0.018** 0.018** 0.007 -0.028** -0.075** 6.43**
Ln Import -0.008 -0.03** 0.037** -0.05** 5.70**

Long-Term Effect of Volatility
Coefficients
LnV PCH NCH Total Significant Wald-L
Significant 10 11 8 13 12
Positive 6 4 4 7
Negative 4 7 4 4
Short-Term Effect of Volatility
Coefficients
LnV PCH NCH Total Significant Wald-S
Significant 15 14 11 18 18
Positive 6 8 5
Negative 8 5 6
Mixed 1 1 -
Long-Term Coefficient Estimates
Results
Short-run Coefficients
Significant
Positive
Negative
Mixed (lag values)
Long-run Coefficients
Significant
Positive
Short-Term Coefficient Estimates Negative
Results Significa Wald-S

nt
Significan
15 14 11 18 18
t
Positive 6 8 5
Negative 8 5 6
Mixed 1 1 -
PCH NCH Total Significant Wald Test
14 11 18 18
8 5
5 6
1 -
11 8 13 12
4 4
7 4
Short-run effect
Decreas
Importing Industries Short-run
Increase e
Asymmetric Effect
Volatility Volatilit
(Wald-S)
5-Minerals (0.25) NS NS y P
16-Machineries (0.16) - - P
06-Chemicals (0.11) + - P
15-Metals (0.08) - - P
11-Textiles (0.07) - both P
2-Vegetables (0.06) - - P
17-Vehicles (0.06) both both P
07-Plastics (0.05) NS NS
03-Oils and Waxes (0.04) + - P
20-Arts and Antique (0.04) + + P
10-Pulps of Wood (0.02) both both P

18-Photographic (0.02) - P
04-Foodstuffs (0.01) - + P
13-Stones and Cement (<1) both + P
01-Live Animals (<1) + both P

09-Woods (<1) - + NS
08-Skins Leather (<1) both P
12-Footwears (<1) both - P
19-Arms & Ammunition
NS - P
(<1)
NS - P
Long-run effect
Decreas
Long-run Increase Long-run
e
Cointegrati Volatilit Asymmetric Effect
Volatilit
on y (Wald-L)
LC + NS y P
LC + NS P
LC - + P
LC - - P
LC NS NS P
LC NS - P
NS NS - NS
LC - NS P
LC - NS P
NS NS
NS NS
LC + + NS
LC + + P
LC NS - P
LC + NS
NS
LC - - P
LC NS NS NS
NS NS NS NS
LC - + P
LC NS
NS NS
LC -
- NS
Variable Name Abbreviation Measurement Source
Cost of capital COC Weighted average cost of capital. (Massari et al., 2008).
Cost of equity COE Total cost of shareholder equity (Massari et al., 2008).
Cost of debt COD Total cost of debt.
(Sultana, 2015).
Board size BS Number of members on the board. (Singhal, 2014), (Wan
Mohammad et al., 2018).
(Ahmed Sheikh & Wang, 2011).
Independent directors/ total number of

Board independence BI (Hermalin & Weisbach, 1991)
Directors
and (Abdul Rahman &
Haneem Mohamed Ali, 2006).
(Gavrea & Stegerean, 2012)

Board meetings BM Number of meetings
and Liao (Liao et al., 2018).
(Kipkoech & Rono, 2016).
Audit committee size ACS Total member of audit committee.
(Wan Mohammad et al., 2018).
Audit committee Number of independent directors/total (Al-Mamun et al., 2014).

ACI
independence number of audit committee members. (Kipkoech & Rono, 2016).
(Al-Mamun et al., 2014).
(Hsu, 2007),(Raghunandan et
Audit committee meeting ACM “Number of general meetings in a year” al., 1998); (Abbott et al.,
2004),(Menon & Williams,
1994) Beasley (Beasley et al.,
2000).
Percentage of foreign owners in the (Gedajlovic et al., 2005).

Foreign ownership FO
company.
Percentage of managerial ownership in (Moh'd et al., 1998) and

Managerial Ownership MO
the company. (Bokpin & Arko, 2009).
(TL/TA) is used to control for the effect
Leverage LEV
of leverage.
Expected Sign
Significant
Significant
Significant
Significant
Insignificant
Significant
Significant/Positive
Insignificant
Insignificant
Insignificant
Significant/Negative
Significant/Negative
Variable Name Abbreviation Measurement Source Expected Sign
Weighted average cost of
Cost of capital COC capital. (Massari et al., 2008). Significant
Total cost of shareholder
Cost of equity COE equity (Massari et al., 2008). Significant
Cost of debt COD Total cost of debt. Significant
Number of members on the
Board size BS board. (Sultana, 2015). Significant
(Singhal, 2014), (Mohammad et al.,
2018). Insignificant
(Ahmed Sheikh & Wang, 2011).
(Hermalin & Weisbach, 1991) and
independent directors / (Abdul Rahman & Haneem Mohamed
Board independence BI number of directors Ali, 2006). Significant
(Gavrea & Stegerean, 2012) and Liao Significant/Positiv
Board meetings BM Number of meetings (Liao et al., 2018). e
Significant/Positiv
(Kipkoech & Rono, 2016). e
Total member of audit
Audit committee size ACS committee. (Wan Mohammad et al., 2018). Insignificant
Significant/Positiv
Number of independent (Al-Mamun et al., 2014). e
Audit committee directors/total number of
independence ACI audit committee members. (Kipkoech & Rono, 2016). Insignificant
Audit committee “Number of general Significant/Positiv

meeting ACM meetings in a year” (Al-Mamun et al., 2014). e
(Hsu, 2007; Raghunandan et al., 1998;

Abbott et al., 2004; Menon & Williams,
1994; Beasley et al., 2000). Insignificant
Percentage of foreign Significant/Positiv
Foreign ownership FO owners in the company. (Gedajlovic et al., 2005). e
Managerial Percentage of managerial (Moh'd et al., 1998) and (Bokpin & Significant/Negati
Ownership MO ownership in the company. Arko, 2009). ve
(TL/TA) is used to control for Significant/Negati

Leverage LEV the effect of leverage. ve

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Variables Mean Minimum Maximum Skewness Kurtosis

Aggregate Trade Flow 16.39 0.31 15.58 16.88 -0.92 3.01

Export 15.41 0.24 14.88 15.8 -0.62 2.29

Industrial Production 11.5 2.54 5.84 15.56 -0.5 2.56

Inflation 6 0.4 5.3 6.52 -0.34 1.61

Aggregate Trade Flow 13706880 3751770 5836915 21392083 -0.92 3.01

Export 5043877 1103038 2910461 7242548 -0.62 2.29

04. Foodstuffs; Beverages 11.78 0.7 10.44 13.04 -0.05 1.96

05. Mineral Products 12.65 0.56 10.51 13.47 -1.59 6.16

06. Products of Chemical 11.43 0.29 10.8 12.1 -0.29 2.55

05. Mineral Products 351723.40 148532.68 36812.33 710106.93 -1.59

06. Products of Chemical 96016.61 26997.11 48921.99 180214.54 -0.29

07. Plastics and Articles 99865.44 34869.50 39160.99 167827.53 -0.68

12. Footwear and Headgear 26056.71 5267.08 16083.82 42843.84 0.03

16. Machinery and Mechanical 52764.81 13906.06 29614.88 91468.39 -0.02

18. Optical and Photographic 77264.57 20801.10 40793.88 118892.51 -0.34

19. Arms and Ammunition 5082.13 7522.17 539.35 48508.05 0.8

1%Critic. Value -3.55 -3.55

01. Live Animals 10.15 0.79 8.22 11.25 -0.73 2.6

02. Vegetable Products 12.85 0.5 11.49 13.65 -0.59 2.93

04. Foodstuffs; Beverages 11.59 0.71 9.67 13.08 -0.73 3.41

05. Mineral Products 14.68 0.54 13 15.36 -1.24 3.95

06. Products of Chemical 13.84 0.29 13.08 14.34 -0.69 2.63

01. Live Animals 32874.82752 20118.35174 3723.886 76781.674 -0.73 2.6

02. Vegetable Products 426382.6924 189163.5455 97724.794 844294.176 -0.59 2.93

04. Foodstuffs; Beverages 133496.1604 85868.22723 15903.071 481173.44 -0.73 3.41

05. Mineral Products 2672708.393 1102644.803 443802.889 4691794.77 -1.24 3.95

06. Products of Chemical 1065103.28 284336.6031 480344.79 1682549.36 -0.69 2.63

09-Woods (0.0035) 24334 11581 6801 50727 -0.12 2.25 -1.29

8497 9467 1148 42515

-4.06 -2.03 -22.29 I(1)

-7.97 -4.87 -22.08 I(1)

08. Raw Hide and

09. Wood and

10. Pulp of Wood

11. Textiles and

13. Stone, Plaster,

& 8307.7687 & 2923.262 & 39753.254 &

0819 & 16083.816 & 42843.843 & 0.03 &

2.3674 & 8924.851 & 37707.259 & -0.14 &

28083.808 & 2775.865 & 154359.05 & 1.26

06.056 & 29614.879 & 91468.39 & -0.02 &

4 & 539.351 & 48508.049 & 0.8 & 4.05 \\

05. Mineral Products -2.99 -19.93 -2.76 -24.53 I(0)

17. Vehicles, Aircraft,

18. Optical and

Particulars (Trade Share) Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM

Particulars (Trade Share) Bound Wald Test Jarque-Bera LM RESET CUM

Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.622** 0.356** 0.010* 0.328 1.025* -0.06**

Short-run Coefficient Estimates

Ln Exports (0.37) 0.063 0.138 -0.173** -1.048** (-6.71)

Ln Imports (0.63) 0.326** 0.104 -0.042 -1.545** (-5.57)

Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.536 0.27 -0.971** -0.19 0.307** 0.069

Industry (Trade Coefficient Estimates

14- Precious Stones

19-Arms and Ammunition (0.00083) 6.06** 5.02** 0.4942 4.57** 0.402 S S

Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.622 0.356 0.010* 0.328 1.025* -0.06**

Ln Exports (0.37) 0.063 0.138 -0.173 -1.048 (-6.71)

Ln Imports (0.63) 0.326 0.104 -0.042 -1.545 (-5.57)

Ln Trade Flows (1.0) 0.536 0.27 -0.971 -0.19 0.307 0.069

19-Arms and Ammunition (0.00083) 6.06 5.02 0.4942 4.57** 0.402 S S

Ln Imports (0.63) 0.64* 0.306 -0.03 0.037 0.007 -0.05** -0.031

11-Textiles (0.59) 11-Textiles (0.59) 6.89 7.47 30.34**

02-Vegetable (0.11) 02-Vegetable (0.11) 4.69 3.18 0.11

05-Minerals (0.05) 05-Minerals (0.05) 13.59 8.37 6.51**

04-Foodstuff (0.05) 04-Foodstuff (0.052) 4.93 5.41 1.29

06-Chemicals (0.03) 06-Chemicals (0.027) 6.33 3.67 16.63**

15-Metals (0.02) 15-Metals (0.023) 7.303 9.16 7.94**

07-Plastics (0.02) 07-Plastics (0.020) 7.91 5.70 14.49**

16-Machineries (<1) 16-Machineries (0.0066) 4.67 6.56 15.67**

10-Pulps of Wood (<1) 10-Pulps of Wood (0.0038) 6.79 5.40 2.34

17-Vehicles (<1) 17-Vehicles (0.0031) 3.05 8.94 112.18

9.185 2.77 14.4 S U

11-Textiles (0.59) 6.89 7.47 30.34**

11-Textiles (0.59) 0.018 0.054 -0.004 0.019** -0.015

11.007 0.812 29.88** 0.947

4.498 0.268 25.82 0.946

1.299 0.629 18.70 0.905

2.36 0.328 53.72** 0.965

16.82 0.554 2.70 0.468

3.102 0.969 26.63 0.952

-5.854 1.408 4.88 0.727

31.98 2.44 2.76** 0.439