Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Corporate Treasury Risk Management - Cheat Sheet
Corporate Treasury Risk Management - Cheat Sheet
FX of FOREX risk can be classified into 3 key categories, i.e., managed in different ways, we mostly manage this risk
using the following derivatives: Forwards, Futures, Options
The classification breakdown is as follows:
Transaction exposure changes in value of outstanding debt caused by unexpected changes in FX rates.
Operating (or economic exposure) Changes in PV of firm’ CFs caused by unexpected changes in FX spot rates
Translation (or accounting) exposure accounting-derived changes in owners’ equity due to FX translations in
fin.statements
FX Forwards:
In a spot transaction cash is exchanged for an asset even if settlement occurs a few days later, ownership changes
instantly. While in a forward transaction both parties agree to exchange cash for the asset at some future date (T) at
a price agreed upon now (in t), the ownership changes at settlement (at T).
Forwards are a binding agreement, specifying that in time t: a $ amount is to be paid, an exchange rate and a
transaction date.
At t there are no cash flows and there is no uncertainty about cash flows in T. There is a counterparty risk (CP Risk)
that the other party will be unable at T to fulfill its obligations.
Forward contracts are: not standardized, OTC traded, the buyer is termed as a long position & the seller is termed a
short position
Example: forward contract on January 5th where a French firm agrees to purchase CHF 100K on April 5 th
The CHF is sold at a spot of 0,8275
The Swiss annual interest rate is 0,5% and the Euro area’s is 0,75%
F = 0,8275 * e(0,075 + 0 – 0-0.05)*(4/12) = 0,8275 * exp[ (0,75% - 0,5% ) * 0,25]
F = 0,828 Euros
Forward mkts are OTC bilateral mkts where you need to find a CP and an intermediary.
Thus, in addition to CP risk, we have the risk of illiquidity.
FX Futures:
Future contracts convey the obligation to buy or sell a standard Q of an asset or security at a fixed priced on a fixed
future date.
Futures are standardized and the contract specification ties down the nature, timing, location of the product to be
delivered, etc. This helps generate more liquidity in the futures contract mkt compared to forwards.
Mark-to-mkt:
Total payoffs to long or short sides of a future contract are exactly the same as forwards.
Futures money is exchanged daily throughout the lifetime of the contract rather than in one lump on the delivery
date.
The marking-to-market calls for:
Margin accounts to hold $ deposited by the buyer in the futures contract
Initial margin deposited by the buyer in the margin account
Variation (changes in the margin account balance) as the mkt price of the futures contract changes
and daily gains/losses accrue.
Maintenance margin which is the least $ available before being required to deposit enough to
restore the initial margin (margin call).
Example: a US investor speculates that the price of gold will rise over the coming 2 to 3 months, rather than buying
gold itself and facing the whole risk and costs alone (storage, security, etc), the investor takes a long position on gold
futures with the specifications:
Size: 100oz
Futures price: $300/oz
Maturity: 90days
Initial margin: $1500
Maintenance Margin: $1000
the margin balance fluctuates by the variation or relative change between periods. If the Margin Balance falls
below the maintenance margin, a margin call is made to bring back the balance to the initial margin. Between the
initial margin value and the maintenance margin values, no margin calls happen.
the loses are thus spread over time, in opposition the forward contracts where they are computed as a
lump sum.
the CP default risk is reduced: as soon as the speculator decides not to respond to a margin call, the
exchange closes the contract limiting the losses at a day at most.
** if the maturity is the same, and interest rates are constant over time and across maturities (or predictable over
time), futures and forwards prices are seen as identical.
IRL interest rates do not fulfill any of the two conditions which makes the prices different. futures contracts are
slightly more expensive than forwards because of the existence of this correlation:
If S rises, an inflow of daily gains to the long position that can be invested at a relatively high interest rate
If S falls, the daily losses have to be finance with lower interest rates.
Whenever we own an asset and a price of a future purchase we forward payoffs with future
we might sell it sometime in the can simultaneously take a contracts fails sometimes.
future we are considered to be position in futures or forwards of basis risk is the difference
on a long position. To lock in a the same asset that is negatively between spot and futures price.
price for a future sale, we can correlated with the asset Basis risk arises whenever there
simultaneously take a position in we use long futures/forwards’ is uncertainty about interest
futures or forwards of the same hedge. rates and hence about the basis.
asset that is negatively correlated
with the asset short Notes:
futures/forwards’ hedge. futures and forward prices
diverge systematically (by a small
When we are short on the asset amount) due to (1) the volatile
and we expect to purchase it interest rate (2) replicating
sometime in the future, to lock in
A perfect short forward hedge:
If there is no basis risk (no volatile interest rates) St = Ft
If we have Q units of an asset that we have to sell in time t=1 and the forward price in t=0 is F 0.
*each unit is worth S1 (spot) in t=1. The total value at maturity is aS 1
*shorting h forwards at t=0 pays h(F0 – S1) in t=1
total value is:
qS1 + h(F0 – S1) = hF0 + S1 (q – h)
if q=h, the CF stops being exposed to all mkt risk of the asset!
if we are short on the asset, we go long forward by h units, the total payoff is:
- qS1 + h*(S1 – F0) = -hF0 – S1*(q – h)
With - qS1 being the short exposure // & // h*(S1 – F0) being the long hedge
again, if q=h, the CF is not exposed at all to the mkt risk of the asset
+ Spot price of Euros in t=0 is $2, how can the firm remove its exposure to the Euro?
the firm has a long position on the Euro, to hedge its exposure the firm has to simultaneously short Euro futures
contracts deliverable at maturity (t=3).
CASE1:
The hedging ratio is 1 the firm shorts 1M contracts (100M Euros) // margin gains are deposited to make interest
and losses are covered with risk-free rate borrowing which is 10%
The average payoff at t=3 is:
E(c) = 0,5 * (3+ (2-3)*1,1)*100M + 0,5(1+(2-1)*1,1)*100M = 200M
With volatility:
Vol(c) = [0,5*(190-200)2 + 0,5*(210-200)2]0,5 = 10M
A tailed hedge:
A hedging ratio of 1 makes abstraction of interest gained or paid before maturity
gains and losses are magnified
to reduce their impact, we can reduce the hedging ratio
NOTE:
The idea is to give up a little bit of return each year to purchase protection against a market meltdown. The focus
is on identifying the key aggregate balance sheet risk factors and determining the cheapest way to protect
against these risks.
CASE2:
Tailing the hedge – slide 35
A perfect hedging ratio makes the CF constant
We need to choose h to equalize payoffs ex-hedging in both states of
1) [3 + h(2-3)*1,1]*100M
2) [1 + h(2-1)*1,1]*100M
If r=0,1 => the loss of 1 per contract accrues with interest to a value of -1,1 ( = - (1+r) )
For a face value of -1 we take a position of 1/(1+r) = 0,909 short futures per Euro, i.e, we make the hedging ratio h =
0,909
Example slide39
Dynamic hedging by a gold mine;
A gold mine has sales contracts maturing on December 31st for £100,000.
It is January 1st and the price of gold in the spot market is £10 per ounce.
Futures contracts for gold mature on March 31st, June 30th, September 30th and December 31st of every
year and each contract must be for 100 ounces of gold.
Suppose that there is no basis risk.
Suppose the annual interest rate for continuous compounding is 5%.
Since we are long on gold (we are a gold mine), and we ill hedge the exposure with the same underlying then we will
short gold futures with the following program:
We open the futures account on Jan 1 st,
Our roll-over dates will be: March 31st, June 30th and September 31st
On December 31st (sales contracts maturity) we do not roll-over to match the maturity of our sales contracts
with the futures
Which yields:
January : 0,96319 x [100K Ponds / 10 Ponds] x 1/100 = 96
March : 0,97531 x … x …. = 98
June : 0,98758 x … x …. = 99
September :1 x … x …. = 100
The perfect hedge may not be feasible ⇒ we need to find an optimal hedging ratio with futures contracts.
*the hedge ratio takes account of the correlation between the two assets and then uses the ratio of the standard
deviations to adjust for differences in the scale of the two asset returns.
If ρ = 1 and σS = σF the optimal hedge ratios is -1,0 since the spot and futures contracts move in lockstep
If ρ = 1 and σS = 0,5 σF the optimal ratio is – 0,5 since the futures price moves by twice as much as the spot’s
<!> a better estimate can be derived from: allowing variances and correlating to time-vary using multivariate GARCH
framework
Lecture 3: Options
The basics of options:
Hedges we have seen before are for linear risks. These hedges will typically:
Eliminate risk by guaranteeing a forward price / Minimize risk effectively if basis risk is low with future contracts
our downside losses are removed at the expense of upside potential. The alternative to which would be to buy an
insurance.
Notes on insurance contracts:
Insurance contracts are contingent claims, they only pay if something happens
payoffs are non-linear
o If the event insurred against happens, buyer receives a pmt, in the opposite case, no cash is paid out
Option contracts have similar payoffs to insurance contracts.
Definitions:
Call option buy a certain asset by a certain date for a strike price K
Put options sell a certain asset by a certain date for a strike K.
o The seller of either type is called an option writer
o The date of exercise is maturity
o An option itself is bought at a price called option premium
o Option premia, c and p, are quoted per units of the underlying asset, e.g., share of MSFT stock or per
oz. of gold, but contracts are for
bundles of 100 units only.
Options moneyness:
Price of the underlying maturity ST, and a strike K.
the payoffs to all types of positions are:
Protective puts:
We are long an asset; we risk that its price might fall
a fixed exposure (linear), we lose 0,01 Ponds for each 0,01 Ponds drop in value
A Long-Put profits at maturity by 0,01 for each 0,01 fall in the underlying (but only once the underlying drops below
the strike price) is an option position that pays off as the underlying falls in value.
Example: we buy stock at $125,94 and a put option in this stock with K=$125 and a premium of $11,50. This matures
in one year.
The total payoff is: (ST – SO) + max(K – ST,0) – p
<!> The breakeven point is when the total payoffs = 0; i.e., when ST = 137,44
A short hedge using futures has a unit CF: G(ST) + h*(F0 – ST)
A short hedge using put options has the unit CF: G(ST) + h*max(K – ST,0) – p
Key elements from this part:
1. When the correlation between ST and the cash flow, G(ST ) weakens, there is less need to hedge
a futures hegde makes the overall position becomes more exposed to the downside risk.
2. This downside is avoided with the options contract because the put eventually becomes out-of-the-money.
3. For linear, i.e., fixed exposures to a risk factor, the choice between using forwards or options depends on how
the firm values
a. having surplus cash available in the upside vs.
b. the costs of the options premia.
4. For non-linear exposures, i.e., with changing sensitivities to different values of the risk factor, options hedges
tend to be superior because they have non-linear payoffs themselves.
Exercise slide 21
We have a real option: the firm can sell the widgets at market that maximizes profits, ether in France for 1 Euro now
or in the UK for 1 Pond in 3-Months.
⇒ In fact, the firm will realize a higher cash flow because it has written (shorted) a call option.
⇒ We must add the future value of the premium ce rT.
Summary:
There exist several strategies to approach FX transaction exposure. You can
• choose between forward, futures and options;
• choose within instument classes, e.g., different strikes; or
don’t bother.
Pros and Cons of hedging alternatives:
Forwards
• can be tailored to perfectly remove FX risk
• BUT, item may be illiquid and involve CP risk
Futures
• Are liquid
• BUT, trying to match maturities (tailed hedging) may fail due to basis risk
• AND, hedge poorly against non-linear exposures
Options
• Allows for upside potential while protecting the downside,
• Hedge non-linear exposures as well,
• BUT, have an up-front cost.
one can evaluate the relative benefits and costs of futures vs. options by simulating future exchange rates
e.g., expecting appreciation, options may be a good idea but futures and options prices incorporate these
views no arbitrage
hedge based on future expectations are actually bets.
In this OTC traded contract, we specify the notional amount N, the dates t to T, and a price, i.e., the forward rate F 0
such that:
the buyer accept (Lt – F0)*N in time T,
the seller accepts (F0 – Lt)*N in time T,
*** Lt is the reference rate, generally LIBOR (that’s why we denote it L)
Coupon-paying, floating rate bonds will typically set the coupon due in T using the reference market rate determined
some time in advance, i.e., t < T . Therefore, the terms of an FRA exchange are settled also in t < T .
The FRA hedge:
The notional is set as to implement the optimal mix of floating and fixed rate, say: (1 – α)% to α%
If the floating rate debt principal is worth D, then the total CF is:
- D Lt + N*(Lt- F0)
As – D Lt is the exposure to hedge
Example slide 9
The first quarterly service of a total debt of 100M Ponds is due in 7-Months
The 3-Months coupon (debt service) is determined using the spot value of LIBOR 3 months before its due, i.e., in 4
months from today.
Let the annualized FRA for 4-Month maturity be 5%
We suppose that a 7-Month FRA with 4-Month reset is agreed today for the quarterly payment of a 100M notional.
And suppose that in 4 months from the agreement, LIBOR was 6% (denoted L 4 = 6%)
The exchanges of cash are:
The exposed CF in 7 months is: - L4 x 90/360 x 100M
Where L4 is random so it constitutes the risk factor.
the coupon due in 7Months is therefore:
0,25 x 0,06 x 100M = 1,5M
When the FRA is settled in the 4th month:
the buyer gets: [0,25 x (0,06 – 0,05) x 100M] / [1 + 0,25 + 0,06] = 246,305
if this CF is invested at LIBOR for 3 Months then it becomes:
0,25 x (0,06 – 0,05) x 100M = 250,000
The next coupon is: 250K – 1,5M = - 1,25M
<!> this amount is equivalent to the coupon on a 5% fixed rate exposure: (-0,05/4)*100M
This 5% fixed leg of the FRA comes from the no-arbitrage relationship.
===> the forward rates are completely determined by the LIBOR term
structure.
SWAPS:
A swap is an agreement to exchange payments of different kinds in the future
Interest rate swap: the exchange is for a sequence of coupon payments over a fixed notional and a specified
period:
• exchange a fixed rate stream for a variable rate stream, i.e., a repeated FRA;
• exchange floating rate streams based on different basis, i.e., a basis swap, e.g., between LIBOR and Treasury
bills.
A currency swap: the exchange is for coupon and principal in one currency for coupons and principal in another
• e.g., CHF150 M at 5% for ¬£100 M at LIBOR
Steps in currency swap:
1. Borrow according to comparative advantage
• CalTech issues CHF150M 5-year debt at 5% fixed rate
• Nestl ́e issues USD100m (USD1=CHF1.50) 5-year floating debt at LIBOR
2. Exchange principal
• CalTech and Nestl ́e exchange their proceeds from borrowing
3. Periodic coupon exchanges
• Each CalTech coupon date,Nestl ́e pays CalTech 5% in CHF
• Caltech pays Nestl ́e LIBOR whenever Nestl ́e’s interest payments are due
4. Re-exchange principal
• At the end of the deal, Nestl ́e and CalTech exchange the principal sums so that each can repay their issued
debts
SWAP Mkts:
Swaps are private deals flexibility
Standardized versions, like FRAs or Eurofutures are therefore: More liquid, Easier to price, less CP risk
Cap payoffs:
=> a cap provides a hedge to a debtor, who wants to lock-in a maximum rate of r
Example slide 22
Constructing a cap hedge.
Suppose that a floating rate loan for $100 M is contracted on January 1st 2021 and:
• must be serviced quarterly, i.e., on 31 st March, 30th June, 30th September and 31st December
• reset dates are two months before each quarterly pmt; i.e., 31 st Jan, 30th Apr, 31st July and 30th October.
To hedge this exposure, the firm can simultaneously buy a cap
• with a notional of $100M
• for the same maturity as the loan
• and with quarterly pmts and reset dates
matching those of the loan.
Example slides 25 to 28
• We borrow e25M for one year on Jan 2nd 2022
• Payments will be quarterly (Apr, Jul, Oct, Jan)
• On each payment date, the rate for the next three months will be the spot 90-day SOFR rate
• SOFR on Jan 2nd is 10%
• To hedge against risk of rising SOFR we also buy a cap with exercise at 10% for a premium of 70K Euros
upfront
At each pmt date the caplet is worth:
25M x max (0, SOFR – 0,10) x 90/360
The loan’s April pmt will be:
25M x 0,10 x 90/360 = 625K Euros
Suppose on April 2nd, LIBOR is 9,75%:
the loan July pmt would be: 25M x 0,0975 x 91/360 = 616,146 Euros
With no extra pmt from the out-of the money April caplet.
Suppose on July 2nd, SOFR is 12,375%
25M x 0,12375 x 92/360 = 790,625 Euros
But the caplet is in the money, so it pays in July:
25M x (0,12375 – 0,10) x 92/360 x 1 / [ 1 + 0,12375 x 92/360 ]
Which in October is worth the following:
25M x (0,12375 – 0,10) x 92/360 = 151,736 Euros
net, we pay the maximum of 638,889 Euros
Suppose on Oct 2nd, SOFR is 11,5%
the Jan 2nd 2014 caplet will be in the money and we will pay the max of 638,889 Euros plus principal
Summary of this part:
With the 10% cap, the effective quarterly interest rate paid is
Without
the cap,
the
implied
yield
would
have
been
11,5%