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Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball
2. Quyết định trì hoãn - Chỉ đầu tư nếu các điều kiện tốt
Tính huống Xác suất 0 1 2
Tốt đáng tin cậy 25% -$20,000,000 $2,523,200
Thường xảy ra nhất 50% -$20,000,000 $715,575
Xấu đáng tin cậy 25% $0 $0
$31,353,199,244,847.10
$421,291,228,540.61
$21,916,159,985,720.90
$53,690,650,459,108.60
3 4 5
$14,866,698 $17,900,197 $26,678,760
$9,235,777 $12,071,956 $26,530,924
$4,935,406 $7,585,038 $27,478,408
$ - $ - $ -
NPVE
ĐLC
` ` CV
Giá trị quyền chọn từ
3 4 5
$14,866,698 $17,900,197 $26,678,760
$9,235,777 $12,071,956 $26,530,924
$4,935,406 $7,585,038 $27,478,408
NPVE
ĐLC
CV
3 4 5
$9,978,035 $14,866,698 $17,900,197
$5,548,830 $9,235,777 $12,071,956
$0 $0 $0
3 4 5
$14,866,698 $17,900,197 $26,678,760
$9,235,777 $12,071,956 $26,530,924
$4,935,406 $7,585,038 $27,478,408
NPVE
ĐLC
CV
NPV
$15,373,731 $31,353,199,244,847.10
$3,257,023 $421,291,228,540.61
-$5,187,994 $21,916,159,985,720.90
$ 4,174,945.86 $53,690,650,459,108.60
7327390.42627787
1.76
6 NPV
$26,678,760 $12,649,113
$26,530,924 $2,628,751
$0 $0
NPVE $ 4,476,653.82
ĐLC 4838878.94420845
CV 1.08
Giá trị quyền chọn thời điểm đầu tư $ 301,707.96
NPV
$15,373,731 $31,353,199,244,847.10
$3,257,023 $421,291,228,540.61
-$5,187,994 $21,916,159,985,720.90
$ 4,174,945.86 $53,690,650,459,108.60
7327390.42627787
1.76
NPV
$15,373,731
$ 21,029,545 $ 59,603,385,851,779.60
$3,257,023 $ 2,718,823,632,242.25
-$5,187,994 $ 29,035,356,450,996.80
$ 5,588,899.30 $ 91,357,565,935,018.70
9558115.18736925
1.71
$ 1,413,953.44
$16,697,270,350,908.90
$1,707,371,722,006.35
$5,010,107,363,788.64
$23,414,749,436,703.90
Scenario Summary
Current Values: TH tốt đáng tin cậy TH thường xảy ra
Changing Cells:
$B$12 $1,500 $1,800 $1,500
$C$17 50% 40% 50%
$C$25 0% 3% 5%
$D$31 15% 10% 15%
Result Cells:
NCF_0 -$20,000,000 -$20,000,000 -$20,000,000
NCF_1 $635,100 $2,523,200 $715,575
NCF_2 $5,176,583 $9,978,035 $5,548,830
NCF_3 $8,278,002 $14,866,698 $9,235,777
NCF_4 $10,348,728 $17,900,197 $12,071,956
NCF_5 $21,315,600 $26,678,760 $26,530,924
NPV_TIP $3,949,213.16 $15,373,731.38 $3,257,022.96
Giá trị thanh lý tại năm 2 21,709,500.00 23,362,400.00 21,951,375.00
SCK danh nghĩa 18.00% 21.54% 23.90%
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
TH xấu đáng tin cậy
$1,300
60%
7%
20%
-$20,000,000
-$749,000
$2,239,500
$4,935,406
$7,585,038
$27,478,408
-$5,187,993.84
21,229,000.00
26.26%
Vốn đầu tư
Đất (thuê/ 1 năm)
MMTB
TGHD (năm)
Nhà xưởng (năm)
TGHD (năm)
Doanh thu
Sản lượng thiết kế 30000
Giá bán $1,500
Năm 0
Công suất huy động
Thông số khác
Thuế
PP hạch toán HTK
CP vốn chủ sở hữu trong TH không vay Thực
Danh nghĩa
Tỷ lệ lạm phát
Vốn vay
Lãi suất vay Danh nghĩa
Số kỳ trả nợ
Hình thức trả nợ
Năm
Chỉ số giá
MMTB
Nhà xưởng
Đất (thuê)/1 năm
Tổng vốn đầu tư
Nhà xưởng
Giá trị đầu kỳ
Khấu hao trong kỳ
Giá trị cuối kỳ
Giá trị thanh lý
BẢNG KẾ HOẠCH VAY VÀ TRẢ NỢ
NPV
IRR
PP (Năm)
TIP 3.57
D 3.13
E 3.93
AEPV 3.63
P/I
B/C
ARR
Tốt
50% giá bán 40%
15% doanh thu
20%
FIFO
18%
18.00% Tốt Kỳ vọng
0% 3% 5%
0 1 2
1.00 1.00 1.00
Cuối kỳ
0 1 2
$ 8,000,000
$ 12,000,000
$ 700,000 $ 700,000
$ 20,000,000
0 1 2
$ 8,000,000 $ 4,800,000
$ 3,200,000 $ 1,920,000
$ 8,000,000 $ 4,800,000 $ 2,880,000
$ 1,600,000 $ 1,200,000
$ 1,600,000 $ 720,000
`
0 1 2
8,000,000 8,382,615
960,000 1,005,914
2,633,875 3,490,093
Khoản vay mới 960,000 1,005,914
1,673,875 2,484,179
8,000,000 8,382,615 5,898,435
8,000,000 2,056,490
(8,000,000) 577,385 3,490,093
0 1 2
8,000,000 6,000,000
960,000 720,000
2,960,000 2,720,000
960,000 720,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000
8,000,000
(8,000,000) 2,960,000 2,720,000
0 1 2
8,000,000 8,000,000
960,000 960,000
960,000 3,330,792
960,000 960,000
0 2,370,792
8,000,000 8,000,000 5,629,208
8,000,000
(8,000,000) 960,000 3,330,792
0 1 2
15000 21000
0 2250
2250 3150
2250 900.000000000001
12750 20100
$ 19,125,000 $ 30,150,000
0 1 2
$ 750 $ 750
$ 245 $ 114
$ 995 $ 864
$ 12,690,500 $ 17,667,000
$ 2,868,750.00 $ 4,522,500.00
0 1 2
$ 19,125,000 $ 30,150,000
$ 12,690,500 $ 17,667,000
$ 2,868,750 $ 4,522,500
$ 15,559,250 $ 22,189,500
$ 3,565,750 $ 7,960,500
960,000 1,005,914
$ 2,605,750 $ 6,954,586
$ - $ -
$ 2,605,750 $ 6,954,586
$ 521,150 $ 1,390,917
$ 2,084,600 $ 5,563,669
0 1 2
2,868,750.00 4,522,500.00
2,868,750.00 1,653,750.00
4,781,250.00 7,537,500.00
4,781,250.00 2,756,250.00
4,500,000.00 6,300,000.00
4,500,000.00 1,800,000.00
2,239,500.00 2,722,500.00
2,239,500.00 483,000.00
0 1 2
$0 $14,343,750 $27,393,750
$19,125,000 $30,150,000
-$4,781,250 -$2,756,250
TIP D E
$3,949,213.16 $ - $3,949,213.16
23.78% 12.00% 28.30%
Ngân lưu ròng tích lũy
-$20,000,000 (19,364,900.00) (14,188,317.24)
-$8,000,000 -$7,422,615 -$3,932,522
-$12,000,000 -$11,942,285 -$10,255,796
-$20,000,000 -$19,556,900 -$14,581,500
TIP D E
1.20
1.05
0.318829354113445
21,709,500.00
Phân tích
với giá bá
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,30
(2,000,000.00)
Phân tích độ n
với tỷ lệ lạm p
$4,500,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$500,000.00
$0.00
0% 2% 4%
Phân tíc
với CPS
12,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
35% 40% 45%
(2,000,000.00)
(4,000,000.00)
(6,000,000.00)
(8,000,000.00)
$4,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$500,000.00
$0.00
$5,000,000 $10,000,000 $15,000,000 $20,000,000 $25,000,000 $30,000
$6,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$0.00
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
($2,000,000.00)
($4,000,000.00)
($6,000,000.00)
($8,000,000.00)
$7,000,000.00
$6,000,000.00
$5,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$0.00
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Phân tích độ nhạy một chiều
GK với CSHĐ 2
$6,000,000.00
$5,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$0.00
10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%
$4,000,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$0.00
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
($1,000,000.00)
HN
1% 2% 3%
-$1,294,063.97 -$1,396,493.35 -$1,496,876.39
-$19,254.42 -$131,362.22 -$241,235.76
-$113,691.66 -$225,082.49 -$334,252.97
$1,255,555.13 $1,133,768.90 $1,014,404.87
$2,530,364.67 $2,398,900.03 $2,270,045.51
$3,805,174.22 $3,664,031.15 $3,525,686.14
$5,079,983.77 $4,929,162.28 $4,781,326.77
$6,354,793.32 $6,194,293.40 $6,036,967.40
$7,629,602.86 $7,459,424.52 $7,292,608.04
$8,904,412.41 $8,724,555.65 $8,548,248.67
HN
20% 30% 40%
-$3,504,765.67 -$2,686,644.72 -$1,868,523.77
-$2,367,572.43 -$1,475,076.85 -$615,801.61
-$2,451,815.12 -$1,564,829.18 -$706,581.13
-$1,230,379.20 -$263,508.98 $609,632.42
-$93,185.96 $948,058.89 $1,835,066.44
$1,044,007.28 $2,159,626.75 $3,060,500.47
$2,181,200.51 $3,337,974.28 $4,285,934.49
$3,318,393.75 $4,504,160.79 $5,511,368.52
$4,455,586.99 $5,670,347.31 $6,736,802.54
$5,592,780.22 $6,836,533.82 $7,962,236.57
HN
20% 30% 40%
-$3,951,049.62 -$3,398,742.29 -$2,846,434.97
-$2,917,416.86 -$2,314,899.78 -$1,712,382.70
-$2,993,987.85 -$2,395,190.28 -$1,796,392.71
-$1,883,784.11 -$1,231,057.27 -$578,330.43
-$850,151.36 -$147,214.76 $555,721.84
$183,481.40 $936,627.75 $1,689,774.10
$1,217,114.15 $2,020,470.26 $2,823,826.37
$2,250,746.90 $3,104,312.77 $3,957,878.64
$3,284,379.66 $4,188,155.28 $5,091,930.91
$4,318,012.41 $5,271,997.79 $6,225,983.17
NH
28.13% 30% 40%
-$4,085,602.64 -$3,997,855.32 -$3,529,798.27
-$3,064,201.98 -$2,968,477.63 -$2,457,869.94
-$3,139,866.82 -$3,044,733.41 -$2,537,277.84
-$2,042,801.32 -$1,939,099.94 -$1,385,941.61
-$1,021,400.66 -$909,722.25 -$314,013.27
$0.00 $119,655.44 $757,915.06
$1,021,400.66 $1,149,033.12 $1,829,843.39
$2,042,801.32 $2,178,410.81 $2,901,771.72
$3,064,201.98 $3,207,788.50 $3,973,700.05
$4,085,602.64 $4,237,166.19 $5,045,628.38
NH
20% 30% 40%
-$3,285,177.18 -$2,935,899.81 -$2,586,622.45
-$2,191,010.56 -$1,809,980.71 -$1,428,950.86
-$2,272,065.87 -$1,893,388.22 -$1,514,710.58
-$1,096,843.95 -$684,061.61 -$271,279.27
-$2,677.34 $441,857.49 $886,392.32
$1,091,489.27 $1,567,776.59 $2,044,063.90
$2,185,655.88 $2,693,695.69 $3,201,735.49
$3,279,822.50 $3,819,614.79 $4,359,407.08
$4,373,989.11 $4,945,533.89 $5,517,078.67
$5,468,155.72 $6,071,452.99 $6,674,750.25
ẢNG THÔNG SỐ CỦA DỰ ÁN
Năm 3 Năm 4 Năm 5
Xấu
1300
Năm 4 Năm 5
80%
Kỳ vọng Xấu
50% 60%
Chỉ số giá tiêu dùng Việt Nam từ 2003 - 2020 theo tổng
Xấu 2003 2004
7% 103.18 107.71
=> Tỷ lệ lạm phát là: 3.18% 7.71%
3 4 5
1.00 1.00 1.00
3 4 5
$ 700,000 $ 700,000
3 4 5
$ 2,880,000 $ 1,728,000 $ 864,000
$ 1,152,000 $ 864,000 $ 864,000
$ 1,728,000 $ 864,000 $ -
$ 960,000 $ 864,000 $ 864,000
$ 192,000 $ - $ -
$ 864,000
3,490,093 3,490,093
3 4
4,000,000 2,000,000
480,000 240,000
2,480,000 2,240,000
480,000 240,000
2,000,000 2,000,000
2,000,000 0
2,480,000 2,240,000
3 4
5,629,208 2,973,921
675,505 356,871
3,330,792 3,330,792
675,505 356,871
2,655,287 2,973,921
2,973,921 0
3,330,792 3,330,792
3 4
27000 24000
3150 4050
4050 3600
900 -450
26100 24450
$ 39,150,000 $ 36,675,000
3 4
$ 750 $ 750
$ 60 $ 56
$ 810 $ 806
$ 21,322,200 $ 19,724,700
$ 5,872,500.00 $ 5,501,250.00
3 4
$ 39,150,000 $ 36,675,000
$ 21,322,200 $ 19,724,700
$ 5,872,500 $ 5,501,250
$ 27,194,700 $ 25,225,950
$ -
$ 11,955,300 $ 11,449,050
707,812 373,939
$ 11,247,488 $ 11,075,111
$ - $ -
$ 11,247,488 $ 11,075,111
$ 2,249,498 $ 2,215,022
$ 8,997,990 $ 8,860,089
3 4 5
5,872,500.00 5,501,250.00
1,350,000.00 (371,250.00) (5,501,250.00)
9,787,500.00 9,168,750.00
2,250,000.00 (618,750.00) (9,168,750.00)
8,100,000.00 7,200,000.00
1,800,000.00 (900,000.00) (7,200,000.00)
3,282,300.00 2,901,600.00
559,800.00 (380,700.00) (2,901,600.00)
3 4 5
$36,900,000 $37,293,750 $23,014,350
$39,150,000 $36,675,000
-$2,250,000 $618,750 $9,168,750
$ 10,944,000
$2,901,600
$28,621,998 $26,945,022 $1,698,750
$ 700,000 $ 700,000 $ -
$ 20,250,000 $ 18,000,000 $ -
(1,800,000.00) 900,000.00 7,200,000.00
$ 5,872,500 $ 5,501,250 $ -
1,350,000.00 (371,250.00) (5,501,250.00)
$ 2,249,498 $ 2,215,022 $ -
$8,278,002 $10,348,728 $21,315,600
$3,490,093 $3,490,093 $0
$4,787,909 $6,858,635 $21,315,600
$ 141,562.45 $ 74,787.71 $ -
$8,136,440 $10,273,940 $21,315,600
2.37 2.97
AEPV
$3,517,281.03
23.13%
(5,910,314.79) 4,438,412.92 25,754,012.92
-$442,429 $3,047,665 $3,047,665
-$5,467,886 $1,390,748 $22,706,348
-$6,445,060 $3,828,880 $25,144,480
AEPV
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000
(2,000,000.00)
$4,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$4,000,000.00
$3,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$500,000.00
$0.00
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
10,000,000.00
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
4,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
0.00
35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
(2,000,000.00)
(4,000,000.00)
(6,000,000.00)
(8,000,000.00)
ạy một chiều
ạy một chiều
4% 5% 6% 7%
-$1,595,284.38 -$1,691,784.89 -$1,786,442.03 -$1,879,316.68
-$348,951.73 -$454,582.93 -$558,198.48 -$659,864.09
-$441,279.42 -$546,234.21 -$649,186.13 -$750,200.51
$897,380.92 $782,619.03 $670,045.07 $559,588.50
$2,143,713.57 $2,019,821.00 $1,898,288.63 $1,779,041.08
$3,390,046.22 $3,257,022.96 $3,126,532.18 $2,998,493.67
$4,636,378.87 $4,494,224.92 $4,354,775.73 $4,217,946.26
$5,882,711.52 $5,731,426.88 $5,583,019.28 $5,437,398.85
$7,129,044.17 $6,968,628.85 $6,811,262.83 $6,656,851.44
$8,375,376.82 $8,205,830.81 $8,039,506.38 $7,876,304.02
90%
$1,417,377.59
$2,939,049.18
$2,826,324.53
$4,460,720.77
$5,982,392.36
$7,504,063.95
$9,025,735.54
$10,547,407.13
$12,069,078.72
$13,590,750.32
90%
-$84,898.34
$1,300,202.71
$1,197,595.14
$2,685,303.77
$4,070,404.82
$5,455,505.87
$6,840,606.92
$8,225,707.98
$9,610,809.03
$10,995,910.08
90%
-$1,189,512.99
$95,168.55
$0.00
$1,379,850.09
$2,664,531.63
$3,949,213.16
$5,233,894.70
$6,518,576.24
$7,803,257.78
$9,087,939.32
90%
-$840,235.62
$476,198.40
$378,677.64
$1,792,632.43
$3,109,066.45
$4,425,500.48
$5,741,934.51
$7,058,368.53
$8,374,802.56
$9,691,236.58
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
118.58 109.21 106.6 104.09 100.63 102.66 103.53 103.54 102.79
18.58% 9.21% 6.60% 4.09% 0.63% 2.66% 3.53% 3.54% 2.79%
2020
103.23
3.23%