I'mPresented to the Faculty of the

Department of Management Sciences

INDUS University

Gulshan Campus

In the fulfillment of the

course “Macro Economics”

BBA Morning Program

COVID-19 IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY:
INTRODUCTION:
The World Bank and score companies had first of all revised India's growth for FINANCIAL
YEAR 2021 with the bottom figures India has visible in 3 decades when you consider that
India's economic liberalization within the 1990s. However, after the statement of the monetary
package deal in mid-May, India's GDP estimates were downgraded even extra to negative
figures, signaling a deep recession.
On 26 May, Credit Rating Information Services of India Limited (CRISIL) introduced that
this can perhaps be India's worst recession considering that independence. State Bank of India
studies estimates a contraction of over 40% in the GDP within the contraction will now not be
uniform, rather it'll differ in line with numerous parameters which include state and area. On 1
September 2020, the Ministry of Statistics released the GDP figures for (April to June)
FINANCIAL YEAR 21, which showed a contraction of 24% in comparison to the same duration
the year earlier than.
According to Nomura India Business Resumption Index monetary activity fell from 82.9 on 22
March to 44.7 on 26 April. By 13 September 2020 monetary activity become almost lower back
to pre-lockdown. Unemployment rose from 6.7% on 15 March to 26% on 19 April after which
backpedal to pre-lockdown levels by mid-June. During the lockdown, a predicted 14 crore (140
million) people misplaced employment even as salaries had been reduce for plenty others. More
than 45% of households across the country have reported a profit drop in comparison to the
preceding yr. The Indian financial system become predicted to lose over ₹32,000 crore (US$4.5
billion) every day during the first 21-days of complete lockdown, which was declared following
the coronavirus outbreak. Under complete lockdown, much less than a quarter of India's $2.
Eight trillion financial motion turned into purposeful. Up to 53% of agencies in the USA Had
been projected to be notably affected. Supply chains were positioned under pressure with the
lockdown restrictions in place; first of all, there was a lack of clarity in streamlining what an
"important" is and what isn't. Those within the casual sectors and each day salary agencies were
on the maximum hazard. A huge quantity of farmers around the country who develop perishables
also confronted uncertainty.
FINDINGS:
Article 01: The Impact of Covid 19 In Indian Economy
Introduction:
The present pandemic scenario has detrimental deep effect on Indian commercial enterprise.
Domestically, the effect of the corona virus pandemic COVID-19 could cause slowdown in
home call for. This will result in erosion of purchasing energy because of job losses or pay cuts
and gradual-down effect of deferred demand will have a longer-lasting effect on one of a kind
sectors, specially wherein call for is discretionary in nature. India’s real GDP depleted to its
backside in over six years for the duration of 4Q 2019-20. India’s boom for next year 2020-21 is
forecasted in between of 5.3% to five.7%. The COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic has found
out many weaknesses in the international device. Despite our accumulated revel in in disaster
control, this virus has been capable of isolate us all in our houses. COVID-19 has induced
excessive disruption for the Indian financial system. The modern corona virus pandemic should
result in a 4 in line with cent everlasting loss to actual Indian gross domestic product (GDP). It is
estimated for India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boom charge to 1.9 consistent with cent for
2020-21. This can be the lowest after India recorded increase fee at 1.1 in step with cent in 1991-
92. The COVID 19 has disrupted fundamental sectors, it’s actually obvious that diverse sectors
tourism & aviation, telecom, auto area, transportation are maximum impacted sectors which
might be dealing with poor repercussion of the present disaster. In the given situation, with all of
the retail sectors shutting down their commercial enterprise the livelihood of the employees is at
optimum hazard. The Government of many countries has given assist to the employers to pay
salaries to their employees. The gift looks at is undertaken to study the impact of COVID 19 in
numerous sectors considering the information that are secondary in nature, one of a kind
appropriate statistical equipment and strategies are carried out for analysis and conclusion. On
the basis of locating guidelines are recommended to overcome those detrimental conditions.
Conclusion:
Outbreak of corona virus has pushed the whole world into kingdom of ambiguity. The gift
depression is a complete trade the from recessions that we had faced in 2008. This has many
outcomes which includes modified the thoughts set of people, challenge for the industry,
shakeup the sector financial order. Everyone is making an attempt to measure this pandemic. It is
certain that we are regularly adapting the changes towards our existence in an everlasting
manner.
Most organizations have will increase resilience to paintings remotely and allowing their
personnel to earn a living from home. While these many measures had been already at the music,
they have now going to be new normal very soon. Risks to supply chains are significant and will
have long time effect. Hence it is important that we improve the skills for you to counter the
consequences of unforeseen events. We need speedy repair the income of enterprise and resume
the authentic state which became destroyed via the risk. One small virus has devastated the world
that is past conceivable for mankind. The crucial mastering, we have learnt to date is the
criticality of universal cost manage in enterprise and residing our livelihood to the minimum.
[ CITATION DrK20 \l 1033 ]

Article 02: IndianEconomyAmidCOVID-19 Lockdown

Introduction:
It is expected via ICRA score agency that amid COVID-19 crisis the Indian economy might also
develop at simply 2% in the current financial year. The lockdown can have an detrimental united
states in which human beings are lots extra at danger from the serious consequences of poverty
in the event that they pass several weeks without working. A quandary protocol has been
promulgated in India that forestall people from leaving the location they are, however vital
elements, grocery shops, pharmacies, and banks maintain to serve for certain hours as deliberated
by using the Government Public transport have been completely suspended till in addition
orders.
COVID-19 virus has resulted inside the lockdown of schools, places of work, factories, temples,
railway stations, and even the airspace. It is expected that due to the lockdown, the Indian
financial system may also face extended destructive effect. The paper is an attempt to confirm
the impact of lockdown at the Indian economic system and explore future attitude. The study has
addressed vital problems like intake expenditure, demand & supply, unemployment rate,
purchasing power, economic marketplace, and so on. Under the given occasions, the lockdown
will price India round USD 120 billion. The manufacturing and provider sector has come to an
abrupt prevent and interrupted domestic supply chains. If this crisis non-stop it will in a
roundabout way affect all economic sectors. The study has given guidelines as a gaining
knowledge of curve which can be used by extraordinary stakeholder to improve the economic
scenario of the united states of America and minimize negative effect of lockdown.
As the lockdown will continue, the Indian financial system will revel in a huge however transient
decline in intake boom of 2% point, because of precautionary behaviors and rules adopted by
way of diverse authorities. It is anticipated that with tour bans and precautionary behavior
abating after three months, India’s hit can be $640 million however if the scenario worsens and
there may be prolonged lockdown intake expenditure in India may decline through $1.2 billion.
A file issued by way of the UN Conference on Trade and Development predicted that India
ought to lose $348 million and declared it a number of the pinnacle 15 most-affected economies,
after the EU, the USA, Japan, and South Korea.
Conclusion:
The COVID-19 has created a grave situation and what's petrifying is that we aren't positive while
the scenario will normalize, till then India has to fight a lonely warfare. India has little coverage
firepower to offer a consequential shove to development, and the pandemic has created extra
stringent limitations. The biggest mission in the front of India is to finance the authority’s deficit,
which is growing because of accelerated expenditure and decreased revenue. Though there's
marginal aid because of fall in the worldwide oil prices, it's going to take a long term to reduce
the deficit. One can also count on explanation of all direct taxes and corporate taxes, as a way to
increase groups. There could be a precipitous deceleration in international growth and India’s
exchange, what's unforeseeable is the importance of the effect at the economy via home channels
of manufacturing (deliver) and consumption (call for). With the wide variety of COVID-19
instances continuously increasing, the impact of the virus on worldwide sentiment, financial and
otherwise, has been large.[ CITATION Jos20 \l 1033 ]

Article 03: Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India through Daily Electricity

Consumption and Nighttime Light Intensity
Introduction:
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic pastime in India. Adjusting guidelines to
comprise trans- mission whilst mitigating the financial impact requires an evaluation of the
monetary scenario in close to real-time and at excessive spatial granularity. This paper indicates
that daily power consumption and monthly midnight light intensity can proxy for economic
activity in India. Energy intake is in comparison with the predictions of a consumption version
that explains 90 percentage of the variation in regular times. Energy intake declined strongly
after a country wide lockdown was carried out on March 25, 2020 and Remained a quarter under
normal tiers at some point of April. It Recovered rather finally, but electricity consumption
became on average nevertheless thirteen.Five percent decrease than ordinary in May. Not all
states and union territories have been affected equally. While electricity consumption halved in
some, others had been no longer affected in any respect. Part of the heterogeneity is defined by
using the superiority of producing and go back migration. At the district stage, higher COVID-19
contamination quotes were related to larger declines in nighttime mild depth in April. Together,
every day electricity intake and middle of the night light depth permit monitoring monetary
activity in close to actual-time and excessive spatial granularity.
Daily Electricity Consumption and Nighttime Light Intensity:
Figure shows India’s daily electricity consumption from April 1, 2013 to May 31, 2020.9

A couple of functions are simply noticeable. First, until the cease of 2019, there is a clear
upward fashion with electricity consumption on common growing 4.Three percent every 12
months. Second, there's a clear seasonality within the information with energy consumption
being better among May and September than at the beginning and end of the yr. Third, there has
been a considerable decline already on the cease of 2019, lengthy before the COVID-19
pandemic disrupted financial interest in India.10 Fourth, across the national lockdown
announced on March 24, energy intake dropped strongly. Fifth, at the give up of May strength
intake first recovered before falling once more.A

India’s electricity evolution since April 2013

Deviations from predicted electricity consumption in India from January 1, 2020 and until May
31, 2020.
Conclusion:
In this paper, we confirmed that each power consumption and midnight mild intensity can
proxy financial interest in India. We then quantified the drop in energy intake in reaction to
the COVID-19 pandemic and the country wide lockdown, which the Indian government
carried out from March 25 onwards. Compared to anticipated intake based totally on a
model explaining 90 percent of the variant in power consumption, real electricity intake
declined round 20 percentage rapidly after the lockdown changed into carried out. It fell
further subse- quently, to a most decline of 30 percentage at the give up of March. It
changed into round 25 percentage underneath everyday throughout April and finally
recovered rather, following the stepwise relaxation of regulations, but became on common
still 13.5 percentage lower than normal in May
Concluding, power consumption tracks GVA fluctuations closely and has been used to assess
the financial effect of lockdowns in the European Union. We confirmed that power
consumption can also be used in rising markets and developing economies. For India, we
will replace this degree of financial interest with handiest a one-day delay, which presents a
close to actual-time view on financial hobby. This provides a valuable supply of information
for policy makers and researchers alike. We additionally provided a primary assessment of the
impact at the district and city degree primarily based on nighttime light depth that may be
further subtle as extra information becomes available.

Article 04: Covid-19 and Its Impact on Indian Economy

Introduction:
In this research paper, I will explore and describe the effect of Covid-19 on the Indian financial
system. If past traits of comparable infections are analyzed, it may be helpful to carry any
conclusion as to What we need to do to move ahead. How can we triumph over this pandemic?
Either thru mass Vaccination or social distancing. What type of lifestyles are we looking forward
to in the time of Covid-19? In simple words, I can specific that liquidity is anticipated to lessen
because the borrowing fee in actual Terms will be multiplied. Though, RBI is continuously
making an effort to soften hobby charges. Commercial banks and financial institutions are tensed
because of the concern of insolvency, NPAs and Bankruptcies growth very a whole lot. The
awareness and pressure of presidency might be to meet out the Hyper call for for necessity
goods. In comparison, enterprise owner of pricey and comforts goods Will pressure on covering
their high-quality cash amount due from debtors. Mergers and Partnerships will now not take
location on this pandemic length while every person is bearing significant Losses. The overall
impact on business is given below:
 Chemical Sectors 129 Million Dollars
 Textiles and Apparel 064 Million Dollars
 Automobile Sector 034 Million Dollars
 Metals and Metal Goods 027 Million Dollars
  Wood Products and Furniture 015 Million Dollars
 Electrical Machinery 012 Million Dollars
 Leather Goods 013 Million Dollars
Conclusion:
 There is a need to reduce the cost of funds through a reduction in policy rates.
 There is a need to increase credit limits for all banking accounts by 25 percent.
 There is a need to provide relaxation in the factory compliances to enable the industries
to Continue operation even in fewer laborers over longer work keeping in mind the
healthier And safe environment. Social distancing is followed in this and can bring a
positive outcome. If required, health concerns and lockdown decisions must be followed
strictly.
 There is a need to raise expenditure on public health to maintain adequate supplies to
Manage the problem of COVID-19: medicines, medical kits for the medical
professionals, Masks, gloves, more health clinics, more hospitals, etc.

Article 05: Effect of COVID-19 on Economy in India: Some Reflections for

Policy and Programmed
Introduction:
The outbreak of COVID-19 brought social and economic life to a standstill. In this study the
focus is on assessing the impact on affected sectors, such as aviation, tourism, retail, capital
markets, MSMEs, and Oil. International and internal mobility is restricted, and the revenues
generated by travel and tourism, which contributes 9.2% of the GDP, will take a major toll on the
GDP growth rate. Aviation revenues Will come down by USD 1.56 billion. Oil has plummeted
to 18-year low of $ 22 per barrel in March, and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have
withdrawn huge amounts from India, about USD 571.4 million. While lower oil prices will
shrink the current account deficit, reverse capital flows will expand it. Rupee Is continuously
depreciating. MSMEs will undergo a severe cash crunch. The crisis witnessed a horrifying mass
exodus of such floating population of migrants on foot, amidst countrywide lockdown. Their
Worries primarily were loss of job, daily ration, and absence of a social security net. India must
rethink on her development paradigm and make it more inclusive. COVID 19 has also provided
some unique Opportunities to India. There is an opportunity to participate in global supply
chains, multinationals are Losing trust in China. To ‘Make in India’, some reforms are needed,
labor reforms being one of them.
Conclusion:
The spiraling and pervasive COVID-19 pandemic have distorted the world’s thriving economy in
Unpredictable and ambiguous terms. But it significantly indicated that the current downturn
seems Primarily different from recessions of the past which had jolted the country’s economic
order.
While the unprecedented situation has caused a great damage to the economy, especially during
Periods of lockdown, the nation will have to work its way through it, by introduction of fiscal
measures. As the national government envisions, protection of both lives and livelihood is
required. The economic Activity must begin gradually after screening of the labor force.
However, every crisis brings about a unique opportunity to rethink on the path undertaken for the
Development of a human being, community and society. The COVID-19 pandemic has a clear
message For the Indian economy to adopt sustainable developmental models, which are based on
self-reliance, Inclusive frameworks and are environment friendly.