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Carlsson - On The Nature, Function and Composition of Technological Systems
Carlsson - On The Nature, Function and Composition of Technological Systems
Carlsson - On The Nature, Function and Composition of Technological Systems
Abstract. This paper suggests that the economic growth of countries reflects their
developmental potential which, in turn, is a function of the technological systems
in which various economic agents participate. The boundaries of technological
systems may or may not coincide with national borders and may vary from one
techno-industrial area to another. The central features of technological systems
are economic competence (the ability to develop and exploit new business oppor-
tunities), clustering of resources, and institutional infrastructure. A technological
system is defined as a dynamic network of agents interacting in a specific eco-
nomic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure and involved
in the generation, diffusion, and utilization of technology. Technological systems
are defined in terms of knowledge/competence flows rather than flows of ordi-
nary goods and services. In the presence of an entrepreneur and sufficient critical
mass, such networks can be transformed into development blocks, i.e. synergistic
clusters of firms and technologies which give rise to new business opportunities.
I. Introduction
Since the work by Abramovitz and Solow in the 1950s and by Denison, Kendrick
and many others in the 1960s, it is commonly accepted that technological change
is a main determinant of economic growth. Yet, because of the difficulty of study-
ing technological change using neoclassical models which predominate in the
analysis of economic growth today and which treat technological change as an
exogenous factor, the causal connections between technological change and eco-
nomic growth are still poorly understood. A more dynamic approach in which the
technological base (broadly conceived) is better integrated as an endogenous
factor in the analysis is clearly needed.
94 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
structure of capital investment .... its technical infrastructure and other factors determining the
externalities on which firms can lean (Chesnais 1986).
Since the seminal contributions by Max Weber, the importance of social institu-
tions in economic development has been widely recognized. For example,
Christopher Freeman has recently emphasized the significance of social innova-
tions for both effective generation and economic exploitation of new technologies.
Summing up two centuries of technological and industrial rivalry he writes:
When Britain opened up a major technological gap in the first industrial revolution, this was
related not simply to an increase in invention and scientific activity, important though these
undoubtedly were, but to novel ways of organising production, investment and marketing and
novel ways of combining inventions with entrepreneurship. When Germany and the United
States overtook Britain in the late nineteenth and in the twentieth centuries, their success was
also related to major institutional changes in the national system of innovation, as well as to big
increases in the scale of professional research and inventive activities (Freeman 1987, p. 31).
The purpose of the present paper is to define the concept of "technological
systems," to study their constituent parts, and to suggest some questions and
hypotheses for further research. The more precise linkages between technological
systems and economic growth will be analyzed in subsequent research within the
project of which this paper represents a part. We have chosen an evolutionary
approach because of its ability to bring within a single conceptual framework the
institutional/organizational as well as the cognitive/cultural aspects of social and
economic change.
The paper is organized as follows. We begin by focusing in Section II on the
sources of economic change, namely variety-driven largely by innovation and
diffusion. Section III analyzes the nature and role of institutional and organiza-
tional factors (namely economic competence, "clustering" of resources, networks
and development blocks and their constituent parts, and the institutional infra-
structure) which define technological systems. In Section IV we conclude the
paper by suggesting some hypotheses regarding the structure and dynamics of
technological systems to be further investigated.
1. The importance of variety and the relationship between variety and innovation
"The tendency to variation is a chief cause of progress; and the abler are the undertakers in any
trade the greater will this tendency be" (Marshall 1910, p. 355).
The idea that it is variety (operating under some selective mechanism such as a
market) that drives economic change and that technological innovation is the
chief long-run source of economic variety has been around for a long time but has
only recently been the subject of analysis by economists. As evidenced by the
above quotation, Marshall was aware of the importance of variety. He pointed
out that in the absence of variety, there will be a tendency to diminishing returns:
every economic agent will invest in his current business until no further invest-
ment is judged to be profitable (Marshall 1910, pp. 355-356). Schumpeter, in the
first German edition of the Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (1912), intro-
duced the notion of "new combinations" (new products or processes, new forms
of organization, the emergence of new suppliers or the opening up of new mar-
kets) as the dynamic elements which break the impass of the static economic
circular flow and constitute the heart of economic development. In the second
edition, published in 1926, he introduced the concept of "innovations" in refer-
ring to the new combinations (Heertje 1988, p. 75). The variety created by inno-
vations or new combinations opens up new opportunities.
For a number of reasons which will not be explored here, Schumpeter's
contribution lay largely dormant for several decades. As pointed out in a recent
paper by Metcalfe (1989), it was not until Alchian published a controversial paper
in 1951 that the economic significance of diversity of economic behavior began to
be explored systematically.
Alchian put forward the view that in a world of incomplete information and uncertain foresight
individual behavior is not predictable. Faced with changes in information, say a change in the
price of an input, individual firms will typically react in different ways and may not even react
in the same direction. None the less, Alchian argued, the effects of such changes can still be
predicted at the aggregate, industry, level, once it is recognized that the market mechanism is an
adoption mechanism selecting across different forms of behavior, and that realized profits are the
criterion which drives the selection process (Metcalfe 1989, p. 59).
The central argument in Alchian's analysis is that the focus of economic analysis
should be on the properties of distributions of economic behavior rather than on
the behavior of individuals, and on the presence of differential adaptation of
individual agents, not on individual adaptation. The technological differences
among firms resulting from such behavior drive the process of economic change
(Metcalfe 1989, pp. 59-66).
Other authors, notably Allen (1988), have emphasized diversity among firms
not simply in statistical terms (i.e., as distributions with particular means and
variances) but rather as a result of erratic or divergent behavior of individual
agents.
In an evolutionary landscape of hills and valleys representing levels of functional efficiencyof
different possible organisms, it is the error-maker who can move up a hill, eventually outcompet-
ing a perfectly reproducing rival. And this despite the fact that at each and every instant it would
be better not to make errors, since the majority of these are loss-making (Allen 1988, p. 107).
It is the success of such risk takers which expands the economic opportunity set.
Evolution is the result of two seemingly contradictory processes: the creation
of variety and its successive reduction through selection. Effective long-term
adaptation requires that these two processes be kept in balance.
Technological systems 97
Selective processes consist of chains of events over time. In the course of its
development, a technology is likely to pass through several different selective
environments; there is a progressive filtering mechanism in operation.
Techno-economic selection takes place in a socio-cultural environment. The
process typically involves interaction and communication among actors. Com-
plex systems rely on hierarchies of selection processes, i.e., they internalize the
variety creation and reduction, thus increasing the efficiency of their learning and
adaptive processes. The function of the market is essentially to create competitive
pressure rather than to test a wide variety of alternatives. The character and
structure of the selective mechanisms constitute important characteristics of tech-
nological systems affecting their innovative ability.
The ways in which markets are organized play an important role. The exten-
sion and scope of markets, their complexity and sophistication, the degree of
concentration, the relative importance of consumer as opposed to industrial mar-
kets, and the ways in which the capital markets function will affect the selective
processes to which technology is subjected. Markets may differ in levels of com-
petitive pressure, in the potential for development of generalized technical solu-
tions as opposed to particular ones, in the dimensions of development they em-
phasize, in the degree of preference for short-term vs. long-run investments, etc.
The nature of the pre-market mechanisms will determine which technical
options will be actually tested in the markets. By pre-market mechanisms we
mean those selective processes which operate chiefly within the firm. The implicit
and explicit technology and business strategies are expressions of these pre-mar-
ket mechanisms. They are the results of the experience accumulated within the
firm and also of the particular business culture which characterizes the economic
system.
In addition to market and pre-market selection mechanisms there is a variety
of non-market or quasi-market mechanisms, such as regulations, standards, and
public procurement policies.
In a recent paper, Arthur (1990) has pointed out that the selection process may
not always be fully "rational" or logical but guided instead by luck or chance. In
an economy functioning strictly according to conventional economic theory, non-
rational solutions are quickly weeded out; there is a strong negative feedback
(diminishing returns) at work which tends to give unique, predictable solutions
and hence ultimate stability. But Arthur suggests a different type of regime where
the selection mechanisms are not always logical and where there is positive feed-
back in the form of increasing returns:
Where positive feedbacks are present, there are usually several possible outcomes or time-paths
the economy can follow; which one the economy "selects" often depends on chance historical
events; there is no guarantee that the best outcome is "selected"; and once economic forces
"select" an outcome, the economy may be locked in to it. Positive feedbacks cause band-wagon
effects, so that if one product or firm or country gets ahead by "chance" it tends to stay ahead:
stability and predictability are no longer guaranteed (Arthur 1990, p. 1)
An example of positive feedback is the video-system market. Two rival systems
(VHS and Betamax) competed initially, with fluctuating market shares. For what-
ever reason ("luck", external circumstances, technical superiority, etc.), the VHS
system obtained a small market share lead. Because of increasing benefits to
market share increased prevalence ~f VHS encouraged video stores to stock
more film titles in VHS than in Betamax - VHS eventually came to dominate the
market (ibid).
98 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
The idea that diversity among micro units (e.g. firms) is necessary for stable
growth at the macro level is central also in Burton Klein's recent research (Klein
1977, 1984, 1988).
2. Innovation
There are several sources of diversity in economic life. Their main characteristic
is that they broaden the set of assumptions governing economic decisions. The
removal of barriers to communication opens up new possibilities. The merger of
firms with different technologies and corporate cultures may generate new ideas,
in addition to creating possibilities of exploiting economies of scale and scope.
The elimination of trade barriers which result in increased economic integration
opens up vast new opportunities. This happened in the United States when the
railroad and the telegraph made possible a national and not only local and
regional markets. It happened and is still happening in Europe as a result of the
formation and extension of the European Communities and now the opening up
of Eastern Europe. Migration of people with different skills and heritage can also
expand the opportunity set. But here we will focus on only one particular source
of diversity, namely innovation.
According to Dosi, "innovation concerns the search for, and the discovery,
experimentation, development, imitation, and adoption of new products, new
production processes and new organizational set-ups" (Dosi 1988, p. 222). He
lists five "stylized facts" about innovation:
(1) uncertainty (which is not simply the lack of all the relevant information about
the occurrence of known events but also the existence of techno-economic
problems whose solution procedures are unknown and the inability to predict
precisely the consequences of one's actions);
(2) increasing reliance of major new technological opportunities on advances in
scientific knowledge;
(3) increasing complexity of research and development activities which causes
such activities to be more formally organized rather than carried out by
individual innovators;
(4) increasing role of experimentation in the form of learning by doing and learn-
ing by using; and
(5) the cumulative character of innovative activity (Dosi 1988, pp. 222-223).
As a result of these characteristics, innovation tends to be an interactive process,
sometimes involving both users and producers (von Hippel 1988; Lundvall 1988;
Carlsson and Jacobsson 1990), sometimes involving cooperative efforts among
producers (see e.g. Fusfeld and Haklisch 1987; Link and Tassey 1989; von Hippel
1989), and sometimes organized more loosely in the form of networks (see below).
Clearly, innovative activity is heavily influenced by the organizational and insti-
tutional structures around it.
3. Diffusion
It is the function of invention and innovation to expand the opportunity set for
various economic agents. The impact of the new technology on the economic
Technological systems 99
The foregoing analysis has stressed the importance of the context (economic
environment, historical circumstances, and organizational/institutional factors)
in which the factors causing economic change operate; this is inherent in the
100 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
1. Economic competence
Invention and innovation lead to economic change only to the extent that agents
within the system are successful in taking advantage of the opportunities to which
they give rise. This is where the notion of economic competence enters in.
In neoclassical theory, firms are generally assumed to have perfect knowledge
so as to be able to optimize their behavior. As pointed out by Pelikan (1988), once
it is recognized not only that firms do not have perfect knowledge but also that
they operate with different knowledge bases and under different assumptions
concerning technology, markets, etc., an entirely different theoretical framework
is called for, namely evolutionary theory. 1 Firms differ in the information they
have, in the extent to which they use the knowledge they have, and in how they
use it. They differ in the resources they devote to advancing their knowledge base
and the effectiveness with which they conduct research. They also differ in their
ability to learn from experience; organization and the quality of individuals
matter (Metcalfe 1989, pp. 79-80). Firms differ in their ability to perceive oppor-
tunities and in their willingness to take risks. When opportunistic risk taking
(whose outcome cannot be calculated beforehand) is successful, pressure is put on
other firms to take risks and to be dynamically flexible (able to make changes in
the production process and product mix not programmed beforehand) if they
hope to survive (Klein 1988, p. 96). This is the kind of competition that generates
new opportunities and hence long-term growth, whereas competition in a static
sense tends to reduce the number of options and thereby leads to static equilib-
rium.
What, then, are the factors that might lead to differential adaptiveness in
response to changed circumstances ?
The most obvious and well known answer resides in the phenomenon of bounded rationality.
Individuals do not face the same choice sets because information is not distributed equally to all,
and the capacity to translate information into knowledge differs between them. Differential
capacities to acquire costly information and differential creativity in the use of that information
are the twin pillars of variety in behavior. Extending this argument to organizations reinforces
it considerably. Firms are coalitions of thinking, information-processing individuals each with
their own life experiences and accumulated stock of knowledge. Through its communication and
decision-making structures the firm filters and combines the knowledge of its individual mem-
bers. Different organizational structures then provide a further basis for differential adaptation
to changing circumstances. The firms simply do not perceive the same choice sets: they know
different things about the world they share. At best their optimizations are local and hence
different (Metcalfe 1989, pp. 61-62).
1 For further elaboration on this point, as well as the notion of economic competence more
generally, see Pelikan (1988 and 1989). In particular, Pelikan has stressed the importance and
implications of economic competence as a scarce resource which is itself in need of efficient
allocation; it is therefore fundamental to the nature and functioning of the economic system and
cannot be taken for granted.
Technological systems 101
The economic competence of a firm may be defined, then, as the sum total of its
abilities to generate and take advantage of business opportunities. It includes the
firm's competence in all areas of its activity, whether defined by function (such as
R & D, engineering, production, marketing, service, and general administration),
product, or market; it certainly includes the ability to perceive new opportunities,
to read and interpret economic signals and adjust accordingly, to learn from
success as well as failure, to coordinate activities, to take the appropriate risks, and
to estimate correctly the limits of the competence of one's own firm and that of
other firms.
In a recent article, Prahalad and Hamel (1990) have elaborated on the "core
competence of the corporation" which they describe as
management's ability to consolidate corporate-wide technologies and production skills into
competenciesthat empowerindividualbusinessesto adapt quicklyto changingopportunities...
Core competenciesare the collectivelearningin the organization,especiallyhow to coordinate
diverse production skillsand integrate multiplestreams of technologies... [C]orecompetence...
is also about the organizationof work and the deliveryof value... Competenciesare the gluethat
binds existing businesses. They are also the engine for new business development.Patterns of
diversificationand marketentry may be guidedby them,not just by the attractivenessofmarkets.
(Prahalad and Hamel 1990, pp. 81-82).
Prahalad and Hamel give the following examples of core competencies: miniatur-
ization as a focus of business strategy at Sony; Honda's emphasis on engines and
power trains; and Canon's competence in optics, imaging, and microprocessor
controls - and their combination - which have enabled the company to obtain a
strong position in markets as seemingly diverse as copiers, laser printers, cameras,
and image scanners (ibid, pp. 82-83).
The concept of"core competencies" comes close to Gunnar Eliasson's notion
of"the firm as a competent team" (Eliasson 1988, 1990) which stresses experimen-
tation and organizational learning via the career paths of key personnel within the
organization. Eliasson (1989) has also emphasized the competence of the multina-
tional firm to "learn" in the international market by perceiving market opportu-
nities (by identifying, interpreting, and quickly acting upon market signals in
various parts of the world) and by constantly monitoring a wide variety of mar-
kets, competitors, and technologies.
It is important to note that in a dynamic (evolutionary) context, economic
competence refers not so much to the set of maximizing or optimizing skills
normally attributed to the firm in static theory as to the qualities which make for
good performance in the long run: to generate opportunities, not just react to
exogenous changes; to make educated guesses and take risks, to maintain flexibil-
ity, and to learn. This is why it is so difficult to define the content of economic
competence.
2. Clustering of resources
It is probably because of the need for interaction among agents with different
competence, background, foresight, etc., that successful innovation seems to
require some form of bunching together or clustering of resources. For example,
the formation of new technology-based firms appears to be heavily concentrated
both in terms of geographic areas (such as Route 128 in Massachusetts and Silicon
Valley in California) and in terms of technologies (e.g. computers, electronics, and
instrumentation) (Utterback 1989, pp. 10-14).
102 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
better defined and more standardized, external suppliers emerge and the original
firm can specialize on whatever aspect of the product or process it deems most
strategic.
3. Networks
4. Development blocks
In order for a development block to come into being, there must be not only an
embryo (core) but also a fertile environment, as well as something or someone to
2 Dosi defines "technological paradigm" as follows: "a technological paradigm can be defined
as a 'pattern' for solution of selected techno-economic problems based on highly selected
principles derived from the natural sciences. A technological paradigm is both a set of exemplars
basic artifacts which are to be developed and improved ... and a set of heuristics - 'Where do
we go from here?', 'Where should we search?' 'On what sort of knowledge should we draw?'
etc... Putting it another way, technological paradigms define the technological opportunities for
further innovations and some basic procedures on how to exploit them. Thus they also channel
the efforts in certain directions rather than others: a technological trajectory ... is the activity of
technological progress along the economic and technological trade-offs defined by a paradigm"
(Dosi 1988, pp. 224-225).
106 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
get the process started. In the economic realm, the existence or at least the
possibility of the core has to be perceived and the potential for growth (i.e., an ex
ante development block) must be identified. That is the role of the entrepreneur,
G. L. S. Shackle put it this way:
All perception is no doubt an act of interpretation, of finding in, or injecting into sense-impres-
sions a meaning, the collating with them of numberless memories of experience, the seeing in
them of possibilities. This is in its own degree an act of origination. This same activity of thought,
but at an enormously enriched, intensified and out-ranging degree, is what marks the creative
writer, composer or theoretician, and it is what marks the entrepreneur (Shackle, quoted in
H6bert and Link 1989, p. 39)
Thus, the role of the entrepreneur is to provide the spark or the vision that turns
a network into a development block. He must be able to see beyond that which
currently exists to what is possible in the future. He has to perceive the (future)
need, identify the necessary ingredients, secure the resources that may be missing
initially, and communicate his vision to the relevant agents - capitalists, suppliers
of raw materials, people with the required skills, etc. Sometimes this bringing
together of resources and needs can take place in spite of great distances or other
barriers - as witnessed for example in the role of English and Scottish merchant
houses and their Swedish correspondents in converting Swedish subsistence agri-
culture into a thriving export business within a few years in the early 1850s
(Carlsson 1980) - but the chances of success are, of course, much greater if the
network that has to be brought together or activated is much denser. In some
cases, e.g. when the technology is complex and when there are many missing
elements in the required resource set, the entrepreneur or " c h a m p i o n " needs to
command large influence and/or financial resources, such as the U.S. Department
of Defense, Japan's MITI, or a major business firm (first echelon firm or "lead
user"). In other cases, when large parts of the required network are already in
place, the champion needs to muster much more modest resources. It is also
conceivable that in some instances it may not be possible to identify the develop-
ment block until it is already in existence (i.e., ex post).
The role of the U.S. Department of Defense in the development of computers,
numerically controlled machine tools, the atomic bomb, military aircraft, space
vehicles, etc., is well known and well documented. The role of MITI in the
postwar development of Japan is much less understood and subject to much more
varied interpretations. But in our reading of the evidence, the following features
stand out: Vogel (1980) stresses the informal, network-like, aspects of contacts
between MITI and various Japanese business firms, rather than formal, hierarchi-
cal linkages. Allen (1981) emphasizes the dynamic approach advocated by MITI:
"Their policies were designed to furnish the drive and to raise the finance for an
economy that might be created rather than simply to make the best use of the
resources it then possessed" (quoted by Freeman 1988, p. 331). Freeman rein-
forces this view: "The not-so-invisible guiding hand of MITI shaped the long-
term pattern of structural change in the Japanese economy and this influence
was largely exerted on the basis of judgements about the future direction of
technical change and the relative importance of various technologies" (ibid,
p. 331). Furthermore,
[i]n this context the organizing and energizing role of the Japanese forecasting system is impor-
tant. The 'Visions' of the future produced by STA, MITI, NIRA and other government and
private sources do not pretend to be accurate predictions, nor do they commit companies to
inflexible plans. They chart the broad direction of advance for the economy and for technology
Technological systems 107
and give companies sufficientconfidence in this vision to make their own long-term investments
in research, development, software, equipment and training. In this respect technological fore-
casting plays a role similar to that of project evaluation in sophisticated research-intensive
companies. Nobody believes that it is possible to eliminate uncertainty, but a thorough discus-
sion serves to mobilize resources, to expose difficulties,and bottlenecks, and above all to energize
the participants, secure consensus and heighten awareness (Freeman 1988, p. 344).
As indicated already, a certain disequilibrium (i.e., unexploited development po-
tential) is inherent in any development block or else it ceases to have dynamic
force. But the process also requires a certain kind of balance or coherence. Suc-
cessful firms seem to be characterized by a balanced product portfolio as a basis
for sustained success: firms which attempt to innovate in several unrelated areas
or which are constantly leaping toward new technologies, or unknown markets,
or both, are much less likely to succeed and grow than those which build carefully
around their core strengths and early successes. Absence of or weakness in one or
two elements might not completely inhibit the growth of new firms, but strength
and balance across the entire complex of stimulating factors enhance chances for
success (Utterback 1989, p. 7).
It is interesting to note in this context that the "back to basics" strategy
observed among leading Swedish industrial firms a decade ago (Carlsson et al.
1979) seems to be pursued currently in the United States and in many other
industrial countries as well (Carlsson 1989). The primary impact of the current
wave of mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. seems to be a downsizing and
specialization of firms. Firms seem to shed businesses outside their core areas and
acquire others within, or closely related to, the core. This also suggests an interpre-
tation of the recent finding that firms in the United States, Europe, and Japan tend
to strive for a broadening of their technology base: they may try to do so primarily
in their core businesses (based on their core competencies - see above) (Gran-
strand et al. 1990).
Swedish economy is becoming increasingly reliant on fewerand larger enterprises as the source
of its continuing creativity and competitive potential in international markets and at home
(Utterback 1989, p. 17).
5. Institutional infrastructure
Institutions are the normative structures which promote stable patterns of social
interactions/transactions necessary for the performance of vital societal func-
tions. Institutions reduce social uncertainty and prevent or mitigate conflicts
between different value systems. They do so by structuring or segmenting various
spheres of activity and subjecting them to specific regimes (Burns and Flam 1987).
These regimes may be formal and embodied in legislation or informal and im-
plicit. In either case they must be supported by effective social sanctions. Crucial
for the survival and effectiveness of institutions is their legitimacy.
By the institutional infrastructure of a technological system we mean a set of
institutional arrangements (both regimes and organizations) which, directly or
indirectly, support, stimulate and regulate the process of innovation and diffusion
of technology. The range of institutions involved is very wide. The political
system, educational system (including universities), patent legislation, institutions
regulating labor relations are among many arrangements which can influence the
generation, development, transfer, and utilization of technologies. It is conve-
nient to discuss this infrastructure under two main headings: (i) the basic econom-
ic institutions and the role of government; and (ii) the system of production and
distribution of knowledge (the R & D system).
6. Technological systems
This definition of technological systems opens up a whole new set of questions for
empirical investigation. Among these questions are the following: (a) What are, in
fact, the boundaries of technological systems, and how are they determined ? How
and why do they differ among techno-industrial areas? (b) What are the most
pertinent aspects of institutional infrastructure in each techno-industrial area?
(c) Who are the important actors? (d) What is the role of the nation/state in the
context of technological systems whose boundaries may be either more narrowly
(e.g. regional) or more broadly (international) defined than those of the nation?
It is possible, based on the work already carried out within the research project
on "Sweden's Technological System and Future Development Potential," to for-
mulate some hypotheses, or at least conjectures, with regard to the questions just
posed. 3 The emergence and evolution of technological systems is a function of
many factors. At present, two groups of such factors appear particularly impor-
tant: (i) the changing character of technology (cf. Section 11.2 above) and (ii) inter-
national economic integration.
It seems quite clear that the relative importance of generic, articulated knowl-
edge is increasing, particularly in the most dynamic areas of technology. There are
several reasons for this. The most important seem to be the increasing complexity
and growing "scientification" of technology which manifests itself with particular
Regardless of the precise answers to these questions, it seems clear that both
the extended selective networks and the dense local environments are essential
features of a firm's environment. Companies will seek environments characterized
by high technological density and diversity and, if necessary, migrate to them. The
failure to create such environments will lead to a progressive weakening of the
technological and industrial strength of a country. This said, it is important to
emphasize that high technological density and diversity are properties of regions
rather than countries. They are the results of local agglomeration of industrial,
technological and scientific activities. At the heart of such agglomerations one
usually finds a "knowledge industry" consisting of universities, engineering schools,
R & D laboratories of large companies, small R & D firms, government laborato-
ries, a variety of consulting firms, and other forms of activities whose primary
output is knowledge and competence. These local agglomerations of industrial
and technological activity constitute dense nodes in a web of local and distant
contacts maintained by the actors involved. One important set of links is created
by academic institutions which establish close communication with similar envi-
ronments throughout the world. Government initiatives, such as national pro-
grams, provide another set of linkages. The third set consists of links cultivated by
the individual companies of which the multinationals are particularly important.
Thus the national technology policy must deal with two somewhat divergent
problems: (1) the promotion of local technological agglomerations of sufficient
critical mass; and (2) the promotion of effective integration with the emerging
international technological systems.
In dealing with these problems one must answer a wide range of questions
including: How many such agglomerations can a country of a given size sustain?
What should be their character? How can their development be stimulated? How
should the problem of resulting regional imbalances be handled ? How should the
national R & D infrastructure be integrated with those of other countries? How
can foreign firms be encouraged to locate their R & D activity within the country's
technological centers? How can one organize and encourage various forms of
international technical cooperation ? These and similar questions are critical for
all countries today but have special significance for the smaller industrial nations.
It is important to recognize, however, that national technology policy can
address only a part of the problem. To the extent that the boundaries of the
technological systems do not coincide with national borders, national policies
may not be effective. Also, and probably even more importantly, it is the economic
competence of the agents within the system that determines ultimate success or
failure. Given the tacit character of much economic competence, only the business
units themselves can take the appropriate action. This is illustrated in a recent
analysis of the world computer industry: the decline of the U.S. and European
computer industries relative to that of Japan can not be attributed to failure of
national technology policy or R & D infrastructure but rather to the failure of the
firms within the industry to choose appropriate strategies, to build up their com-
petence, and to form cooperative networks (Ferguson 1990).
In the light of what has been said here about the importance of variety,
clustering of resources, and critical mass for the creation of effective technological
systems, it may be claimed that small countries find themselves in a position of
hopeless disadvantage compared with large ones. Indeed, if technological systems
are locked into the relatively closed national systems, small countries such as
Sweden or Switzerland could never achieve the same level of technological and
116 B. Carlsson and R. Stankiewicz
economic performance as, say, the United States or Japan, and they would be
progressively "squeezed out" of the international markets for technologically
advanced goods and services. Yet it is an empirical fact that, at least up to now,
some of the smaller industrial nations have been remarkably successful in holding
their own, technologically and economically, against larger and more powerful
competitors.
There are at least two possible explanations for this. One is that if the national
economic systems are becoming more open and the technological systems more
international, there exists a possibility for the small countries to neutralize some
of the limitations of size. Secondly, small countries (or at least some of them) m a y
in fact have certain advantages relative to the large ones, because (a) they are less
constrained by nationalistic ambitions which create the need for sulf-sufficiency;
and (b) several of them have developed organizational and cultural features which
make them particularly effective operators in the international system. Countries
like Sweden, Switzerland and the Netherlands are characterized by: (i) very large
share of exports in their G N P ; (ii) great importance in their economies of domes-
tically based multinationals; (iii) integration of companies in the international
industrial networks; and (iv) scientific and technical communities well linked to
the international centers of excellence. Whether these countries will be able to
further develop and exploit these advantages is an important question for the
future and hinges largely on the extent to which the boundaries of technological
systems coincide with national borders.
Acknowledgements. This paper was written within the framework of the research project "Swe-
den's Technological System and Future Development Potential" financed by the Swedish Na-
tional Board for Technical Development (STU) and the Swedish Board of Research Councils
(FRN) whose generous support is gratefully acknowledged. We would also like thank our
colleagues within the project, especially Gunnar Eliasson, Anders Granberg, and Staffan Jacobs-
son, as well as Zoltan Acs, Pavel Pelikan and Frank Stafford, for constructive criticism of earlier
versions of the paper.
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