4Q13

Continuous Trend modeling

Creating trend models for continuous 3D properties based on multiple secondary
data - Advanced property modeling workflows
Product Analyst David Marquez and Advisor Colin Daly discuss the importance of
building trend models and show how to use the Trend Modeling Process to combine
multiple continuous trend models into a single trend to use in Cokriging algorithm in Petrel.
David Márquez
Product Analyst
Petrel Modeling

Industry challenge
Trends are ubiquitous in reservoir facies and petrophysical properties. Transport patterns of depositional environments determine different Facies
associations and successions. Vertical profiles as well as the extent and direction of continuity of petrophysical properties such as porosity and
permeability also exhibit large-scale changes associated to diagenetic (i.e. compaction, cementation) and depositional geological processes.
Accounting for these trends is paramount in order to obtain reliable predictive models of facies and petrophysical properties and help reduce the
inherent uncertainty.
Many tools and algorithms have been developed in geostatistical modeling to account for systematic deterministic components in the spatial
distribution of discrete and continuous properties. Several methodologies are currently available in Petrel property modeling, including Co-kriging
with locally varying mean and Collocated Co-kriging. However, analyzing the available data to evaluate and ultimately build reliable trend models
remains a big challenge in geostatistical modeling.

Should trends always be modelled?

Although, as mentioned before, virtually all geological processes will cause the distribution of subsurface properties to exhibit large-scale trends,
the definition of what constitutes a trend is subjective. The presence of a trend will depend on the scale of observation of the available data. Even if
some sort of trend can be observed in the data, the question is: ‘Is the trend significant enough so that it needs to be explicitly modeled?’
Ultimately, using an explicit trend is a modeling decision.
• Know the depositional environment or structural setting. Understanding the nature of the geology helps identifying a trend and explaining why
certain trends are present, what they are, and how they are likely to behave when extrapolating away from wells.
• Look for a physical or geological explanation for what might be causing the trend in the area of study. The spatial distribution of the different
properties of the rock is ultimately a consequence of geological processes.
• Analyze the well log data to detect the presence of a trend. Check variograms and crossplots.

If there is strong evidence of a trend in the available data that is consistent and geologically meaningful, and if, and only if, enough good quality and
consistent data is available to build the trend model (e.g. log data, seismic attributes, geological information), then a trend model can explicitly use
in the geostatistical method. If, on the other hand, you do not have strong evidence of a trend that is consistent and geologically meaningful or not
enough data is available to build a reliable trend model, then it is better to keep it simple and not model an explicit trend.

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• If you don’t have a plausible geologic explanation, you may be looking at a processing issue which should be handled differently.
• The vertical extent of the reservoir layers may not be large enough to include a deterministic large-scale tendency or pattern in the spatial
distribution of reservoir properties.
• Some regional and lithology dependent large-scale trends can be implicitly handled by defining different geostatistical parameters for different
zones and different discrete property types.

Continuous trend modeling with Petrel

The Trend modeling process allows combining multiple input continuous trend models of different scales and spatial coverage to create a single
output 3D trend model. The output 3D trend model can then be used as soft secondary control in most facies and petrophysical modeling
algorithms. By explicitly using a weighted linear combination of the input trends, the Trend modeling tool provides a flexible and transparent way of
combining the input trends into a single trend model, which can be easily inspected and checked for non-physical features prior to be used as a
constraint in any geostatistical modeling algorithm.

Many different types of trends can be combined, including

• Upscaled well log data
• Vertical trends such as vertical function or vertical mean curve created within the Trend modeling process
• Areal trend models build from laterally dense secondary data
• 3D trend models

Fig 1. Combining multiple trend models into a single 3D trend

Optimal combination of multiple continuous trend models

The Trend modeling tool allows estimating the weights that produce the optimal combination of the input trend models, that is, the combination that
minimizes the variance of the estimation error. The Estimate trend weights functionality perform a multivariate linear regression between the
primary variable (upscaled continuous data) and the set of secondary variables (input trends) and assign the estimated regression coefficients as
weights for the input trends. Using the resulting optimal trend model as an input for the collocated co-kriging algorithm in Petrel is then equivalent to
directly doing a co-kriging or cosimulation with several variables, a standard methodology used in geostatistical modeling to account for information
from several secondary variables.
When computing the Trend model using Estimate trend weights, a detailed regression diagnosis is provided in the message log. This information
is very useful to quantify the goodness of fit of the resulting trend model, that is, how good the output trend model is at explaining the existing well
data, and the statistical significance of the estimated weights.

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• The Total Sum of squares is the overall variability of the data
• The Regression Sum of squares is the amount of total variability that is explained by the trend model. Typically, if this figure is 20% or more of
the Total variability then we can conclude we have a useful trend model
• The F-test of the overall fit quantifies the statistical significance. A critical value Fcrit at a given significant level α must be computed. This is
the number that the F-test statistic must exceed to accept the significance of the regression results. Then if F > Fcrit we can conclude that the
results are significant at the α % significance level.

Fig 2. Optimal combination of the input trend models. The Estimate trend weights functionality perform a multivariate linear regression.

Include vertical trends from the well data

The Trend modeling process also allows including a vertical trend from the well data. This is useful to model for example ‘fine upward’ sequences
observed in porosity and permeability profiles mainly due to depositional factors. When using the vertical mean trend (by toggling on the vertical
mean trend button), this is combined with any other input horizontal/volume trends to obtain the output trend model. The vertical trend model can
be interactively edited in the process dialog, so informed changes can be made based on the number of data points used to estimate the trend
value in each layer and the bulk rock volume of the layers.

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 Fig 3. Including a vertical trend from the well data. The vertical mean trend tab allows interactively editing the vertical trend model

Define different trends per region using discrete variables

It is also possible to use a discrete variable to define the trend model conditioned on individual ‘regions’ in the selected zone. Different settings and
input variables can then be used on the different regions, so the output trend will be different per region. In particular, a facies model could be used
as a region parameter so we can obtain a facies conditioned continuous trend model.

Fig 4. Different settings and input variables can be used on the different regions or facies codes.

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Sensitivity analysis of individual trend models
The optimal weights obtained from the regression analysis give the best linear combination in the sense that it gives the trend model that explain
most of the data variability. However, in the absence or scarcity of well data, weights can also be manually entered to define the trend model.
Although there is no objective way of deciding the adequate set values for the weights, plausible trend models can still be obtained using user
judgments and understanding of the underlying geology. The influence of each individual trend of the output trend model can also be easily
assessed by interactively changing the weights used for the linear combination function.

Fig 5. The influence of each individual input trend of the output trend model can be assessed by changing the trend weights

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Using output trend model an input for collocated co-kriging workflow
A simple workflow can be followed to model a continuous property using several input data types as trends:
1. Combine the different trend models using the Trend modeling process, either through a regression or manually selecting the trend weights
2. Use the single output 3D trend model as a secondary variable in Petrophysical modeling and select the Collocated co-kriging algorithm.

Fig 6. Using the resulting optimal trend model as an input for the collocated co-kriging algorithm

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