October 20, 2021

To: Interested Parties

Fr: ALG Research
Re: Minneapolis Municipal Poll Findings

Mayor Jacob Frey leads Sheila Nezhad by 20% (up 1% from September) in the final round of
our ranked choice vote simulation. Question 2 is likely to be defeated with 44% (no change from
September) of voters supporting the measure compared to 53% (no change from September)
who are opposed. Question 1 is a toss-up with 46% supporting to 45% opposing. Question 3 is
in a position to pass with 51% supporting the ballot measure to 44% who oppose. Given the
unpredictable electorate, these outcomes aren’t certain, but Frey will likely be reelected and
Question 2 defeated.

• Nezhad and Knuth’s name ID has grown. Nezhad is now known by 60% (33%
favorable / 27% unfavorable) of the electorate, with 19% having a very favorable opinion
of her. Knuth is known by over 50% (51% name ID – 29% fav. / 22% unfav.) of voters for
the first time in our polling, but only 10% have very favorable opinions of her.

• The mayor’s race has held steady since September. Similar to our findings in
September, Frey leads throughout the ranked choice vote simulation, starting with 44%
of the vote followed by Nezhad with 25%, Knuth with 10%, and 13% of voters still
undecided. In the final round, Frey leads Nezhad 47% to 27%, with both candidates
taking equal shares of Knuth’s supporters. Frey leads with key demographics like:
o White (45% Frey / 27% Nezhad) and Black voters (60% Frey / 25% Nezhad)
o Men (45% Frey / 29% Nezhad) and women (48% Frey / 26% Nezhad)

• Question 2’s path to passing continues to narrow. The majority of voters (53%) oppose
it, with the number definitely voting “no” rising to 48% from 42% in September. Support for
the ballot measure stayed at 44%, with 34% definitely voting “yes.” Support and opposition
to the measure continue to solidify and the support is not where it needs to be to pass.

• The margin for Question 1 is razor thin. Support for the measure currently is 46%,
with opposition at 45%. Definite support and opposition are both 30% leaving 40% of the
electorate persuadable. The ballot measure is shaping up to be a referendum on Frey,
with 67% of voters who have unfavorable opinions of him opposing Question 1.

• Question 3 is winning. Currently 51% of voters support the ballot measure compared to
44% who oppose it. Similar to Question 1, there is a sizeable portion of the electorate who
aren’t definitely “yes” (33%) or definitely “no” (33%). Much of the support for Question 3
lies with voters ages 18-34 who support it by an over 2:1 margin (68% “yes” / 25% “no”).
Findings are based on the results of a combined telephone and text-to-web survey conducted by ALG Research
from October 16-19, 2021 in Minneapolis among N=600 likely voters. The results are subject to a margin of error
of +4.0%. 77% of interviews were conducted via cell phone or text-to-web.