(Balkema-Proceedings and Monographs in Engineering Water and Earth Sciences) Campus, Stefano - Evaluation and Prevention of Natural Risks-Taylor Francis (2007)

Evaluation and Prevention of
Natural Risks
BALKEMA – Proceedings and Monographs
in Engineering, Water and Earth Sciences
Evaluation and
Prevention of
Natural Risks
Stefano Campus & Ferruccio Forlati
Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research,
Arpa Piemonte, Torino, Italy
Secondo Barbero & Stefano Bovo
Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area,
Arpa Piemonte, Torino, Italy
LONDON / LEIDEN / NEW YORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE

Arpa Piemonte
Via della Rocca, 49 – 10123 Torino – Italy
www.arpa.piemonte.it
Translated by: Andrea Brusa, New Millennium Language Services, Torino; with the
collaboration of Marie Scarano.
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Dalla valutazione alla previsione dei rischi naturali. English.
Evaluation and prevention of natural risk / edited by Stefano Campus … [et al.].
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-415-41386-2 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Hydrogeology–Italy–Piedmont.
2. Natural disasters–Risk assessment–Italy–Piedmont. 3. Natural disasters–Italy–
Piedmont–Prevention. I. Campus, Stefano. II. Title.
GB1099.P54D3513 2007
363.34–dc22 2007002564
ISBN 0-203-93461-X Master e-book ISBN
ISBN 13: 978-0-415-41386-2

ISBN 13: (e-book) 978-0-203-93461-6
Table of contents
Presentation ix
By Vincenzo Coccolo, General Manager Arpa Piemonte
Foreword xi
By Stefano Bovo and Ferruccio Forlati
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPT OF HAZARD

AND RISK
1.1 Forecasting, Hazard, and Risks Related to Natural
Phenomena 3
Stefano Campus, Luca Paro
Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research
Arpa Piemonte
1.2 Forecasting Natural Phenomena for Emergency
Management 9
Secondo Barbero
Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area
Arpa Piemonte
1.3 A Knowledge Base and the Diffusion of Knowledge
as Supports for the Assessment of Hazard and Risk 15
Enrico Bonansea, Carlo Troisi
Arpa Piemonte
1.4 Glossary 33
Luca Paro
Arpa Piemonte
2. THE ASSESSMENT OF HAZARD AND RISK

2.1 Meteorological Phenomena 45
Paolo Bertolotto, Daniele Gandini, Nicola Loglisci, Giovanni
Paesano, Renata Pelosini, Serena Poncino, Christian Ronchi
Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area
Arpa Piemonte
2.2 The Large Alpine Landslides 109
Michele Morelli, Luca Paro
Arpa Piemonte
2.3 Rock Falls 133
Marta Castelli*, Ermes Fusetti**, Luca Mallen**
vi Table of contents
*Department of structural and geotechnical engineering

Technical University of Torino
**Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research
Arpa Piemonte
2.4 Shallow Landslides 151
Stefano Campus*, Gabriele Nicolò*, Davide Rabuffetti**
*Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research
Arpa Piemonte
**Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area
Arpa Piemonte
2.5 Torrential Processes 169

Federica Marco
Arpa Piemonte
2.6 Avalanches 201
Andrea Bertea*, Marco Cordola*, Maria Cristina Prola*,
Alberto Cotti**, Enrico Olivero**
*Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area
Arpa Piemonte
**TOROC – Torino Organising Committee XX Winter
Olympic Games Torino 2006
2.7 River Flooding 231
Secondo Barbero*, Gianfranca Bellardone**, Claudia Giampani**
Arpa Piemonte
Arpa Piemonte
3. FORECASTING AND WARNING

3.1 Meteorological Forecasting 265
Daniele Cane, Massimo Milelli, Antonella Sanna, Marco Turco
Arpa Piemonte
3.2 Indicators of Rainfall Hazard 301
Secondo Barbero, Milena Zaccagnino
Arpa Piemonte
3.3 Towards a Different Approach to Forecasting Methods 317
Stefano Campus
Arpa Piemonte
3.4 Forecasting Floods 321
Secondo Barbero*, Roberto Cremonini*, Claudia Giampani**,
Mariella Graziadei*, Davide Rabuffetti*
Table of contents vii

Arpa Piemonte
Arpa Piemonte
3.5 Forecasting Landslides 353
Fabrizio Bosco*, Stefano Campus**, Luca Mensio*,
Gabriele Nicolò**, Davide Tiranti*
Arpa Piemonte
Arpa Piemonte
4. THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTING AND

ASSESSMENT METHODS
4.1 Limitations and Constraints of Forecasting 393
Secondo Barbero*, Stefano Bovo*, Stefano Campus**,
Ferruccio Forlati**
Arpa Piemonte
Arpa Piemonte
4.2 The Case of the Scrivia River on September 15–16, 2004 399
Elena Oberto
Arpa Piemonte
4.3 The Mass Movement of the Rio Frejus (Bardonecchia,
NW Italian Alps) on August 6th, 2004 409
Fabrizio Bosco*, Daniele Gandini*, Ilaria Giudici*,
Federica Marco**, Luca Paro**, Mauro Tararbra**,
Davide Tiranti*
Arpa Piemonte
Arpa Piemonte
5. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
5.1 General Conclusions 451
Stefano Bovo*, Ferruccio Forlati**
*Director of the Regional Forecasting and Environmental
Monitoring Area – Arpa Piemonte
**Director of the Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological
Research – Arpa Piemonte
Author Index 455
Presentation
The safeguarding of the territory is one of the fundamental aspects of the

action strategy for sustainable development established by the European
Union. One of the aims of this sustainability policy is the reduction of
risks and, more specifically, with direct focus on Natural Risks, which is
also the main objective of Arpa Piemonte in its mission for environmental
protection. These issues are dealt with by the Arpa in keeping with national
guidelines regarding the reorganisation of environmental and territorial
competencies.
The Italian region of Piemonte is known to be prone to natural risk,
especially hydrogeological risk. If we assume that critical events are
unavoidable phenomena that occur cyclically and with a certain regu-
larity, with greater or lesser intensity but with similar mechanisms and
effects, the prevention program of the Regional Department of Preven-
tion Technical Services has been developed and integrally adopted by
Arpa Piemonte, focusing on non-structural measures with the objective
of minimising the effects of natural risk in terms of safeguarding human
life and property through the knowledge and understanding of the phe-
nomena of instability, the forecasting of indicators, the monitoring of
evolving situations, and the application and management of regulations
and restrictions.
In keeping with Arpa Piemonte’s philosophical approach to problem-
solving, the program was conceived with a globally integrated vision
that calls for increased technical and scientific knowledge together
with the development and experimentation of new technologies and
communications systems. Our work has also often branched out into inno-
vative experiences, like the longstanding and ongoing collaboration with
the National Department of Civil Protection, which has resulted in the
definition and application of the guidelines and methodologies of the
Piedmontese system throughout the national territory.
This volume intends to present the evolution of natural risk forecasting
from the points of view of methodology and examples, marking a quar-
ter of a century of dedicated work by the Regional Prevention Technical
Services in the fields of research and operational applications by high-
lighting the continual spirit of collaboration and reciprocal stimulation
and enrichment through the description of the most significant results
obtained.
The strategy of transnational action actuated through European Union
projects aimed at the creation of a communications network among
national and regional technical services was truly a success. The contribu-
tion made in cultural, operational, and financial terms was fundamental
for the realization of instruments for monitoring, analyses, and elaboration
x Presentation
that were both suitable and indispensable to the highly specific context of
the Alpine and Mediterranean regions and developed in the experiences
described.
Vincenzo COCCOLO
General Manager Arpa Piemonte
Foreword
All of us remember the tragic 1994 flooding of the Tanaro River or the
flooding in the province of Turin in 2000, but we have all but forgotten
the year 2002, during which there were five outstanding events:
• June 4th–6th in the valleys of Cuneo;
• July 13th–15th in the area of Biella;
• September 1st–2nd in the plains of Pinerolo;
• November 14th–18th and 23rd–26th in the Scrivia Valley.
Such events motivated Piedmontese administrators to establish prior-

ities concerning territorial management and natural risk prevention and
to heavily engage technical-scientific and operational structures.
Over recent years, the assessment and prevention of risks inherent
to natural phenomena is one of the main objectives of pressing interest
to the scientific community and various other authorities who deal in
territorial management. The historical analysis carried out for the territory
of Piemonte concerning the consequences of such hydrogeological risks
underlines how the amount of damage is constantly increasing and with
more significant increases occurring after World War II. On one hand, this
can be partly explained by an increase in readily accessible information
and awareness of the problem, but on the other it is due to the consistent
expansion of urbanized areas at the expense of areas that are essential to
the natural modelling processes of the territory.
The damage resulting from hydrogeological instability is therefore
often associated with incompatible territorial decisions and, in perspec-
tive, is likely to increase considerably, causing a continual and repeated
destruction of resources, only some of which are renewable, and resulting
in costs and efforts that are much greater than those that would be required
by prevention and restoration.
Within this context, the program of the Regional Department of Pre-
vention Technical Services (now fully adopted by Arpa Piemonte) has
been developed and which, since the 1980’s, has established prevention
strategies by choosing to develop non-structural interventions, due to their
immediate applicability and compatibility with the economic and social
situation of Piedmont. On the other hand, structural solutions present actu-
ation times similar to those that have resulted in the current urbanization
of the areas in question.
One of the first steps is certainly related to the geological risk assess-
ment or the identification of the probability of a specific disastrous process
occurring in a certain area, within a certain time period, and with a certain
intensity. From a point of view of practical application to real cases, it is
evident that the geological risk assessment, according to a standard and
complete understanding of the term, implies a series a problems that must
xii Foreword
be addressed, due to the number of variables involved and the degree of

uncertainty they present.
The same risk assessment faces yet another difficulty in relation to
the extension of the area in question. The analysis of a limited portion
of the territory allows a better identification of the secondary conditions
and the geometry of the problem as well as a more detailed collection
and elaboration of significant elements. This in turn allows a contextual
application of various methods, resulting in a considerable reduction of
time and costs, and consequently guarantees a higher level of reliability
and optimization of the results. On the contrary, considering the vast area at
hand, territorial studies are more difficult to manage and therefore require
an approach that is more suitable to the bulk of information processed and
less concerned with details.
The physical mechanisms that regulate the evolution and triggering
of critical hydrogeological events like landslides and river flooding are
extremely complex and almost never linear. This means that, if the cause
of the event appears to be more significant than any specific case, the
consequences observed will not increase proportionately; in other words,
the relationship between rainfall and landslides or floods is influenced by
several factors that may determine the involvement of different surface
areas and different intensities, even in apparently similar situations.
Obviously there are processes that are easier to forecast because they
can be traced to a better-known and proven model, and others that are more
difficult to forecast, like certain slope movements where the mechanisms
are still not fully understood or depend on a complex series of interacting
factors.
The correct perception of hydrogeological risk associates an awareness
of the inevitability of flash floods and their consequences to the earth with
an understanding of the economic and social damage connected with such
events. As a consequence, the aspects of forecasting and warnings that
mitigate such effects assume a fundamental importance.
In the past, flood prevention was a problem perceived mostly on a local
scale and generally resolved by means of localised protective interventions
with no regard whatsoever for an overall vision of the hydrographical
network and its territorial environs, while a lack of an efficient commu-
nications system, together with inadequate cultural evolution and social
organization regarding such issues, limited the effectiveness of emergency
interventions.
Today, warning systems are based on the forecast for territorial areas
that are significantly homogeneous in their likelihood to become scenarios
of such events, as well as the consequential effects on the well-being of
life, property, settlements, and the environment.
The identification of threshold values constitutes an initial quantita-
tive indicator of the onset of risk: for some types of landslides, the
identification of critical precipitation threshold is associated with the
Foreword xiii
triggering of such events, and therefore the curve of separation of the

stable field from the instable one can be calculated; for flooding phe-
nomena, the definition of the critical flow in a fixed control section can
facilitate the calculation of the precipitation that may generate such a
critical discharge.
Arpa Piemonte is aware of the high frequency of the effects produced
by natural phenomena and has actively worked to improve the reliability
of risk forecasting in terms of space (zoning) and time (alerts). To this
view, the global viewpoint taken in order to deal with hydrogeological risk
successfully involved a synergy amongst multidisciplinary knowledge and
experts (meteorologists, hydrologists, hydraulic and geotechnical engin-
eers, geologists, etc.). The inspiring criterion was in fact that of increasing
the reliability of the methodologies aimed at assessing risk by reducing
the margin of uncertainty related to the choice of entry parameters and
to the variability of measurements. The knowledge of phenomena gained
by the various disciplines led to the identification of the most significant
elements in outlining calamitous processes.
The introduction of the warning system, together with an increased
knowledge and awareness of the authorities and the general population,
contributed to limiting the number of victims during the 2000 event in
Turin, which was nevertheless comparable in size and effect to the 1994
event.
The validity of this choice is demonstrated by the Guidelines of the
Prime Minister of February 4th, 2004 concerning the new functional
organization of the National Warning System distributed on a national and
regional level for geological and hydraulic risk, which set emergency man-
agement guidelines by establishing organic and functional interactions
between emergency management and the phases of prevention, monitor-
ing, and forecasting of the effects. In this field, Piemonte was a forerunner:
the national organization adopted the guidelines and the methodologies
of the Piedmontese system; Arpa Piemonte contributed directly to the
definition of warning areas and threshold systems for the assessment of
critical levels for all of Italy.
This text give a detailed account of a series of experiences related to the
development of the project on a European level and explores the activities
that Arpa Piemonte carries out in this field, focusing on the cognitive and
forecasting aspects related to risk assessment and the warning procedure.
Stefano BOVO
Ferruccio FORLATI
Introduction
to the Concept 1
of Hazard and Risk
1.1 Forecasting, Hazard, and Risks
Related to Natural Phenomena
1.1.1 INTRODUCTION
What is a disaster? It can be defined as an extraordinary event that sur-

passes the standard response capacity that an organization is prepared to
sustain. They may range from emergency situations that regard a limited
area and the elements directly involved (a traffic accident, a single isolated
rock fall) to those events whose intensity can be managed only through
the coordinated participation of national or international authorities, like
the Tsunami of December 26th, 2004.
An initial classification of various types of dangers may be made by
considering the origins of such events; natural, technological, and social
dangers (Table 1.1.1).
TABLE 1.1.1 CLASSES OF DANGERS (Alexander, 2002)

CLASS OF DANGER EXAMPLES
NATURAL
Earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide
Geological (including rockfall, debris avalanche, mudflow),
episode of accelerated erosion, subsidence
Hurricane, tornado, icestorm, blizzard, lightning,
Meteorological intense rainstorm, hailstorm, fog, drought, snow
avalanche
Hydrological Flood, flashflood
Tsunami (geological origins), sea storm
Oceanographic
(meteorological origins)
Biological Wildfire, disease outbreaks (meningitis, cholera...)
TECHNOLOGICAL
Hazardous materials
and processes Carcinogens, mutagens, heavymetals
Dangerous processes Structural failure, radiation emissions
Devices and machines Explosives, unexploded ordnance, vehicles,

trains, aircraft
Bridges, dams, mines, refineries, power plants,
Installations and plants oil and gas terminals and storage plants, power
lines, pipelines, high-rise buildings
SOCIAL
Terrorist incidents Bombings, shootings, hostage taking, hijacking
Riots, demonstrations, crowd crushes and

Crowd incidents
stampedes
4 Introduction to the Concept of Hazard and Risk
This volume deals only with natural dangers, and more specifically
with geological, hydrological, and meteorological dangers, which are
the specific fields to which Arpa Piemonte dedicates its structures and
services, even though other natural and technological hazards also have
a considerable impact on human activity. Disasters caused by natural
phenomena constitute an enormous obstacle to development in indus-
trialised society. It can certainly not be said that calamities did not exist
in the past, but the probability of one occurring are now higher than ever
and involve increasingly extensive areas of the environment in which we
live. The hypothesis of repeated calamitous events, which is now univer-
sally accepted, results in the outlining of the cycle of activities related
to their management in four phases. These four phases, after the passing
of the emergency stage itself, can be defined as: recovery, mitigation,
preparation, and response (Figure 1.1.1).
Recovery Mitigation
Reconstruction
Restoration Quiescence
After Before
the event the event
Emergency Pre-impact
Response Preparation
Figure 1.1.1 The cycle of Impact

disaster (from Alexander,
2002).
Recovery is the reconstruction phase, which may continue for many

years. The mitigation phase includes all the actions planned to reduce the
impact of future events (structural and non-structural measures). Prepar-
ation refers to actions that reduce the impact when events that potentially
causing risks are imminent and include safety measures like evacuation.
Forecasting, Hazard, and Risks Related to Natural Phenomena 5
Response is the actuation of procedures during the event or immediately

following it, with the main purpose of saving human lives.
Forecasting, intended as a cognitive awareness of natural phenomena
and efforts to quantitatively predict the possibility/probability of an event
actually occurring, together with the sharing of such information, com-
prise the mitigation phase, while prevention measures belong to both the
mitigation and the preparation phase; both are also part of the general
pre-impact phase.
The annual economic costs associated with disasters were an average
of 75 billion dollars during the 1960’s, 138 billion during the 1970’s, 214
billion during the 1980’s, and 660 billion during the 1990’s, with such
losses being either (UNDP, 2004):
• direct, which is to say material damages caused to productive
settlements (industries, agricultural harvests), to economic infrastruc-
tures (roads, electrical energy supplies, etc.) and social infrastructures
(homes, schools, etc.) or
• indirect, due to the interruption of the supply of basic services
like telecommunications or drinking water, which have widespread
implications.
In developed countries, the impact of calamitous events has mostly

an economic impact, while the price to be paid for disasters in develop-
ing countries tends to be mainly social. The reason for this is that the
impact depends largely on the development decisions actuated by govern-
ments. In fact, when countries attain a certain level of prosperity, they are
generally capable of planning investments aimed at reducing their vul-
nerability (for example, the construction of earthquake-proof buildings).
At the same time, the growth of emerging economies often spurs chaotic
urban development. During a calamitous event, the response in these two
situations is the opposite, and in the second case results in a larger number
of deaths. Therefore, even on an international level, the global challenge
to be faced is how to better anticipate, and therefore manage and reduce,
the risks related to natural phenomena by taking potential dangers into
consideration when drafting local and national development plans and
environmental policies. The establishment of measures to guarantee civil-
ian safety has evolved and there are now, in addition to the traditional civil
protection interventions regarding issues related to the actual emergency
phase, forecasting and prevention activities that are an integral part of the
risk management process.
Yet what is actually meant by risk and hazard? Risk is the probability
that an event, caused by the interaction between the evolution of natural
events and human activities in a broader sense, may have negative conse-
quences for human life, property and resources, for economic activities,
and the environment. With the term “hazard”, we intend the probability
that a phenomenon of a certain intensity may occur in a specific area
within a certain period of time. Therefore, from a more descriptive and

more comprehensible point of view, by risk we mean a combination of
hazard and damage.
To this view, interdisciplinary experts play an obvious role in the iden-
tification of all the components necessary to define both hazard and risk.
These analyses subsequently result in the actions aimed at the develop-
ment and effective actuation of risk reduction plans. So hazard and risk are
complementary aspects of the same problem: the interaction of physical
force with typically human or, more in general, environmental systems. In
some way, such concepts tend to sometimes overlap and are often used in a
confused or ambiguous manner, perhaps by inverting their meanings. In
Italian, for example, the term hazard, which is normally used in scientific
literature to indicate hazard or danger, is translated as catastrophe, disas-
ter, risk, calamity, or with terms that indicate very different conditions.
Even the italian term “rischio” (risk) is often misconstrued and used to
indicate the probability that an event will occur or a “hazard” itself.
By definition, forecasting is intended as the activity of identifying
hazard or risk. The cognitive phase that precedes the forecast implies
considerable effort because it is based on systematic activities effectuated
over an extended period of time. Forecasting is a logical procedure that
is essentially founded on a method of retrospective analyses. Historical
analyses and the analysis of evolving processes play a fundamental role
in establishing the reference framework.
In order to effectively outline the underlying criteria of actions aimed
at safeguarding the territory, it is necessary to clarify and standardize
the meanings of the terms used, also by referring to legislation regarding
the institution of the national civil protection services (Italian legislation
n. 225 of February 24th, 1992, Istituzione del servizio nazionale della pro-
tezione civile). Forecasting is intended as an essentially cognitive activity
that is oriented towards “the study and identification of the causes of
calamitous phenomena, the detection of risks, and the identification of
vulnerable areas in the territory”. Prevention measures instead include
“activities carried out in order to avoid or minimize the possibility of dam-
age occurring and are based on the knowledge acquired as a result of fore-
casting”. In other words, prevention is intended as actions aimed at avoid-
ing the effects of natural processes by means of measures to be actuated
before a dreaded event occurs. The more accurate, reliable, and accessible
the forecasting data is, the more effective prevention activities will be.
Forecasting activities belong to a complex framework of actions articu-
lated during three successive, and consequentially closely interdependent,
phases: the cognitive phase, the analysis and elaboration phase, and the
management phase.
Through the completed development of these phases, it is possible to
arrive at assessments of hazard and risk according to the pertinent environ-
ment and to the basic information available that allows the quantification
TABLE 1.1.2 COMPONENT OF NATURAL HAZARD FORECAST
Exposed Expected Products
TYPE OF DANGER Typological Spatial Temporal Intensity Territorial environment
elements damages obtained
Context of
Spatial
Source Propagation actual
resolution
application
Meteorological regional operational
area
service
Large Alpine local methodology
point
landslides applied
point uniform model
Rock falls
area context applied
uniform model
Planar slides point
context applied
area model
Shallow landslides regional
point applied
area methodology
Debris flows local
point applied
area uniform operational
Snow avalanches
point context service
operational
Floods point local
service
Forecasting, Hazard, and Risks Related to Natural Phenomena
7
of the temporal, spatial, intensity, and evolution component. Therefore,

forecasting, intended as an assessment of hazard and risk, implies:
• forecasting of the typology (or the answer to the question “what?”);
• spatial forecasting (or the answer to the question “where?”);
• temporal forecasting (or the answer to the question “when?”);
• forecasting of the intensity (or the answer to the question “how much?”);
• forecasting of the evolution (or the answer to the question “how?”);
• forecasting of exposed elements and of the relative expected damage
(or the answer to the question “which elements?”).
The logical outcome of this reasoning is the knowledge that there
is no such thing as “absolute” forecasting. Rather, it is articulated in
components that are analysed by different disciplines. When a forecast of
a particular natural hazard is carried out, it is important to specify which
component and level are being referred to.
In Table 1.1.2, the various forecasting components are identified and
put into relation with the typologies of natural processes that constitute the
target of Arpa Piemonte’s activities. The colouring of the cells indicates the
feasibility of carrying out forecasts concerning that specific component.
The column relative to the territorial environment of the forecast validity
is subdivided into spatial resolution, intended as the minimum territorial
unit to which the results obtained by the various methods of analysis are
applied, and the context of the current application, which refers to the
regional territorial environment in which the forecasting methodologies
of the particular phenomenon have been applied and for which services
have been activated. Finally, the products obtained indicate the degree
of existing operability Arpa Piemonte maintains regarding that type of
forecast.
The evaluation of each component into which the concept of Forecast-
ing of Natural Hazards has been divided contains errors and uncertainties,
often inherent to the instruments and the approaches adopted, which con-
dition the results. For this reason, the awareness of such limitations and
the relative method of analysis allow us to evaluate for precisely which
aspects it would be possible to minimise the error and globally improve the
Forecast. In the following chapters, these aspects will be developed with
particular reference to the efforts that Arpa Piemonte has made to identify
these uncertainties for the purpose of improving forecasting methods for
various typologies of natural hazards present in Piemonte.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alexander D. (2002), Principles of emergency planning and management. Oxford

University Press.
U.N.D.P. [United Nations Development Programme] (2004), Reducing Disaster
Risk. A Challenge for development. Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery.
New York. [www.undp.org/bcpr]
1.2 Forecasting Natural Phenomena for
Emergency Management
1.2.1 INTRODUCTION
A series floods on Italian territory have called attention to the fundamen-

tal role played by forecasting and monitoring systems and, in particular,
the importance of acquiring real time data to be elaborated and diffused
immediately to all subjects involved in the forecasting and emergency
management phases. These events served to consolidate the need to pro-
vide an organisational model for the coordinated management of a national
monitoring and warning system within the framework of Italian law L. n.
183/1989 concerning soil conservation and L. n. 225/1992 concerning the
institution of Civil Protection.
During its meeting on January 15th, 2002, the Technical Commit-
tee instituted by Law n. 267/1998 approved the project for a national
monitoring and warning system with a distributive type of architecture,
or in other words, consisting of national and regional Centri Funzionali
(Functional Centres) interconnected to form a network for the real-time
exchange and elaboration of all the information inherent to hydro-
meteorological monitoring systems as a support for Civil Protection.
1.2.2 THE NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM
The new organisational structure is defined specifically in the Directive

of the Prime Minister dated February 27th, 2004 and meets the needs
for clarity and overall guarantees concerning responsibility procedures.
In light of national Law n. 401/2001 and according to Legislative Decree
n. 112/1998, as well as the amendment to Article V of the Constitution,
the Directive also regulates the responsibilities and functions of a distribu-
tive national warning system, which are assigned to the various subjects
involved as follows:
• the State, by means of the Department of Civil Protection;
• Territorial Government Offices;
• the Regions, through the Presidents of the Regional Council and
regional Offices and Services for forecasting and prevention, as well
as emergency management.
The Directive, mainly and firstly, applies to the Civil Protection
Authorities responsible for notifying the part of the system destined to
intervene with emergency measures. The management of the national
warning system is ensured by the Department of Civil Protection, by
the Regions, and by the Autonomous Provinces through the Centri

Funzionali network, as well as by regional structures and pertinent
centres called upon to contribute functionally and operationally to this
network. All these elements must operate according to common criteria,
methods, standards, and procedures. The task of the Centro Funzionale
network is to combine, concentrate, and integrate:
• the qualitative and quantitative data obtained from the meteo-
hydropluviometric network, from the radar-meteorological network,
and from the various satellite platforms available for observations of
the earth;
• territorial, geological, and geomorphologic data;
• meteorological, hydrological, hydrogeological, and hydraulic
modelling.
The scope of this task is to provide a continual service for every day
of the year and, if necessary, 24 hours a day, as a support for compe-
tent Authorities in the decision-making process regarding warnings and
for emergency management, as well as to meet the operational needs of
the civil protection system. The system consists of 22 Centri Funzionali,
one for each Region or Autonomous Province, plus two National Centres,
located within the Department of Civil Protection and the other at Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency and Technical Services (APAT). The Centro
Funzionale operates in essentially two phases.
The first is the forecasting phase and concerns the assessment of the
meteorological situation expected and the forecasting of the effects on the
ground through the interpretation of the numerical model simulations as
in the following stages: the first concerns the forecasting of the meteoro-
logical events (wind, rain, snow, freezing, etc.). The second is relative
to the forecasting of expected residue risk and the effects that the occur-
rence of such events may have on the life, properties, settlements, and the
environment on the territory under the jurisdiction of each Centro Fun-
zionale. The third is relative to the assessment of the level of criticality,
which is obtained by comparing the elaborated forecasts with the estab-
lished thresholds. The second is the surveillance and monitoring phase,
during which the formulation and/or confirmation of the forecasted sce-
nario or the subsequent updating of an ongoing event, are carried out by
means of the transmission, collection and concentration of the data
resulting from various kinds of sensors located in the Centri Funzion-
ali. Direct and instrumental qualitative and quantitative observations
of the ongoing meteo-hydrological and hydrogeological event can be
distinguished from short-term forecasting of the relative effects (meteoro-
logical “now casting” or initialized ground-based measurement models)
(Figure 1.2.1).
For the purposes of forecasting and prevention activities, the Centri
Funzionali subdivide and/or unite the hydrographic basins in their area
of competence, or parts of them, into territorial areas that are signifi-
cantly homogeneous with regards to the expected occurrence of intense
Forecasting Natural Phenomena for Emergency Management 11
MONITORING
FORECASTING
remote sensing
meteorological
effects on the ground automatic monitoring network
Figure 1.2.1 Components of the regional Centro Funzionale.
meteo-hydrological events, the typology, and the severity of the relative

effects; such territorial areas are called Warning Areas. In each Area and
for each type of hazard, adequate dimensions must be identified, such as
precursors and their values, as indicators of the probable occurrence of
prefigured scenarios of an event and its potential effect on human lives,
property, settlements, and the environment. This identification must be
obtained according to the historical knowledge of the occurrence and
evolution of significant events over time in the territory and their relative
effects and according to models, even if speditive, of the events and most
likely effects. During the transitory phase, the regional Centri Funzionali
will be supported according to the principle of subsidiarity by the National
Department of Civil Protection until they are capable of fulfilling their
assigned tasks autonomously. The challenge for years to come will be
to organise the competencies of each structure that participates in this
network, which implies that considerable organizational efforts must be
made by the regional Technical Structures.
1.2.3 THE “CENTRO FUNZIONALE’’ OF PIEMONTE
Regional Law n. 28/2002 assigns Arpa Piemonte the regional planning,

actuation, and management of the monitoring network and relative alarm
and pre-alarm systems under the regional Centro Funzionale, which then
assumes a specific role within the Forecasting and Environmental Mon-
itoring Area, according to the organizational regulations established by
Arpa. The Centro Funzionale of Piemonte is the evolution of the “Sala
Situazione Rischi Naturali” – or “Natural Risk Situation Centre”, which
since 1996 has been responsible for the surveillance of the regional ter-
ritory. It is staffed 365 days a year by technical personnel who work in
shifts with progressive extensions of up to 24 hours if a warning has been
issued, in that there is a continuous on-call service for technical support
and logistic functions. The Centro Funzionale guarantees the presence
of specialised experts assigned to functional groups that are capable of
supporting the interpretation of the data and consequential operational
decisions. The administration of Regione Piemonte has absorbed the oper-
ational guidelines of the Prime Minister’s Directive dated February 27th,
2004 through its own guidelines that establish the procedures and the
warning methods of the system on various regional, provincial, and town
levels, as called for by Legislative Decree n. 112/1998 and Regional Law
n. 7/2003. The Centro Funzionale is responsible for the issuing of weather
and regional criticality notices; the former are contained in the meteoro-
logical watch bulletin, while the latter are found in the criticality bulletins,
which are in turn divided into hydrogeological and hydraulic bulletins,
snow bulletins, and heat wave bulletins (Figure 1.2.2).
The effect of the regional weather warning system is to extend the
protection and surveillance activities of the regional Centro Funzionale
and inform the various civil protection structures present in regional terri-
tory, which will then be activated according to the modalities established
in individual plans that the administrations themselves must adopt in
keeping with the provisions of Regional Law n. 7/2003. The effect of
regional criticality warnings is to alert all the civil protection structures
involved in order to trigger their activation according to the modalities
established by each individual plan. The weather advisories and crit-
icality warnings are issued by the Regional Civil Protection Sector to
the Territorial Government Offices and the Provinces involved. Accord-
ing to reciprocal agreements already stipulated and the organizational
framework adopted with regards to civil protection, the abovementioned
authorities must inform, in case of regional weather advisories, and alert,
in case of regional criticality warnings, the Towns and other subjects that
depend functionally on these same administrations. Following the receipt
of a regional criticality warning, all the regional civil protection structures
involved must activate the procedures as defined in their own emergency
and civil protection plans. The same warnings are also transmitted to the
Department of Civil Protection, which then publishes them in a national
bulletin, which is in turn useful in compiling an overall view (Figure 1.2.3)
and bringing about improved coordination functions in case of flood events
with interregional characteristics.
Forecasting Natural Phenomena for Emergency Management 13
Figure 1.2.2 Bulletins issued by the regional Centro Funzionale.
National Regional
Centro Funzionale Centro Funzionale
NATIONAL REGIONAL
make
METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL
WATCH BULLETIN WATCH BULLETIN
issue
send
NATIONAL REGIONAL
CRITICALITY CRITICALITY
BULLETIN BULLETIN
Regional Civil
Protection
Territorial Government Regional Offices Provincial Offices

Offices
Figure 1.2.3 Flow plan for the diffusion of warnings.

1.3 A Knowledge Base and the Diffusion
of Knowledge as Supports for the
Assessment of Hazard and Risk
1.3.1 THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

SYSTEMS IN THE ANALYSES OF ENVIRONMENTAL
PHENOMENA AND IN THE DIFFUSION OF
KNOWLEDGE
Analysing the role of Geographic Information Systems in the field of

preventing natural risks and, more generally, in the study of environ-
mental phenomena requires an introduction aimed at outlining what is
intended today as GIS (acronym for Geographic Information System) and
the role such instruments play in the analyses and management of the Arpa
Piemonte knowledge base.
On a bibliographic level, the definition of Geographic Information
Systems has always been variable and essentially divided into two main
schools of thought: one that considers the GIS as an IT instrument for
the management of geographic data, using the term to refer to individual
software products and the relative hardware platform, while the other
focuses its attention on the GIS as a system-discipline, and therefore as
a set of instruments, methods, and competencies that interact to create
and manage “geo-pertinent” information, useful in the decision-making
process of the organization that uses it.
Today these two positions, even if different, are commonly adopted,
also because, historically speaking, one is the evolution of the other. Dur-
ing the history of the GIS, in fact, following an initial planning phase
and the realization of the models and information technology instruments
specifically used for research, the expansion phase began heading towards
an ever-growing user base in organisational and production contexts that
were much more complex and with an increasing level of integration with
other technologies.
From the first half of the 20th century, with the development of aviation
and aerial photography, both cartography and, more generally, geography
were given a considerable boost, followed by the first electronic technolo-
gies during the 1960’s, which led to the idea of adopting IT models to
memorise and elaborate spatial and cartographic data.
At the end of the 1960’s (Mc Harg, 1969) the GIS model was formalised
and intended as a spatial analysis model to be used in territorial planning
and decision-making, based on the overlapping and joint analyses of more
than one information level, constituted by individual thematic cartogra-
phies in order to produce new knowledge or synthetic cartographies.
GIS sw
RDBMS remote
printer server sensing charts
devices
Personal SOFTWARE geographical
Computer images
workstation
HARDWARE DATA tables
TLC
GIS
ITC staff HUMAN workflow

PROCESSES
RESOURCES
planning
topographer METHODS
cartographer management
specification
thematic theories
staff models standard
Figure 1.3.1 Components of a Geographic Information System.
During the same years, projects aimed at implementing these con-

cepts through the development of specific hardware and software based
on emerging IT technologies, although with different scopes, were born
in Canada and the United States (CGIS – Canadian Geographic Infor-
mation Systems; Harvard Laboratory for Computer Graphics and Spatial
Analysis). Beginning in the 1980’s, with the development of personal com-
puters and networks, GIS technologies began to establish themselves as
information system instruments in research organisations, public admin-
istrations, and businesses. This evolution introduced new ways of defining
GISs, in that the technological component was enhanced by new aspects
related to methodologies, organisation, interoperability, and, above all,
the human component intended as a specialised capacity and competence
finalised at the governing of management, elaboration, and analyses pro-
cesses and the correct use of the instruments. The in-depth development
of some of these aspects has recently led to new interpretations of the
original meaning of GIS (Geographic Information System). For example,
Geographic Information Science means the study of the theory and man-
agement models, and the communication of geographic information, as
well as the evolution of geographic information systems. In contrast,
Geographic Information Studies is meant as the analysis of all the organ-
isational aspects (organisation models, the promotion of GIS in society),
regulations (conditions for data use, copyrighting of data), and economics
(cost of the geographic information, analyses of the supply and demand
of geographic information) relative to the Geographic Information
Systems.
A Knowledge Base and the Diffusion of Knowledge 17
Today, Geographic Information Systems represent one of the main

tools for the management, elaboration, and analysis of environmental
knowledge thanks to their specific capacity to represent and model com-
plex natural phenomena. There is no technical or scientific field that
does not adopt its principles and technologies: from ecology to the man-
agement of technological infrastructures, from agriculture to territorial
planning, from marketing to military defence, just to mention a few
examples. Their gradual affirmation in all fields of territorial manage-
ment has brought uncountable technical and economic advantages and
resulted in changes in the logic of data creation itself and the manage-
ment of knowledge, introducing new interpretive models on one hand
and requiring the adaptation of new organisational models and levels of
competence and professionalism on the other.
Figure 1.3.2 Virtual three-dimensional DEM Digital Elevation Model with a 10 m grid and orthoimages.
The management of a complex Geographic Information System in fact

requires diversified experience capable of governing the various system
components: systems experts and specialised IT skills for the design and
management of technological infrastructures, specialists for the acquisi-
tion and elaboration of geographical data, experts in numerical modelling
in various applicative fields, experts in remote sensing and treatment of
aerial and satellite images, cartographers and topographers. Today, the
entireArpa Piemonte geographical-environmental database is managed by
a complex Geographic Information System that constitutes an instrument
for the analysis and support of all new information acquisition processes,
data elaboration, the production of specific numerical modelling (like the

one illustrated in the following chapters), and knowledge sharing.
For many years, the use of GIS technologies in the field of preven-
tion and natural risks has been a reality on a regional level, also as a
logical evolution of the typical instruments of this discipline, like photo
interpretation, geological and geothematic interpretation, and traditional
data banks. The considerable bulk of topographical, territorial, and the-
matic data managed (technical documents, satellite images, geographical
dataset, DEM, etc.) is subjected to constant integration and updating
through the results of all the activities of environmental safeguarding,
monitoring, and analyses carried out as part of Arpa’s institutional activ-
ities, specific surveys and information campaigns on individual envir-
onmental themes, from the results of national and international projects in
which Arpa participates, and by information exchanges with information
systems of other Piedmontese and national Public Administration offices.
Each field of action of Arpa Piemonte’s studies and research in the
fields of geology, geomorphology, geotechnics, and more specifically in
the study of instability phenomena on slopes or along the hydrographical
matrix is based on a widespread use of GIS technologies beginning with
the collection phase and the analyses phase and then on to the publication
and diffusion phases.
National projects coordinated by Italian Environmental Protection
Agency (Apat), like IFFI (Inventario dei Fenomeni Franosi in Italia,
or Inventory of Landslide Phenomena in Italy) or CARG (Carta Geo-
logica d’Italia, or Geological Map of Italy) have produced substantial
geographical data bases on a detailed scale (1:10.000–1:25.000) in Geo-
graphic Information System logic. This allows us to go beyond the
traditional scheme of thematic cartography to that of the geographic
data bank, where the geographic and topological components are inte-
grated with alpha-numerical and descriptive ones, opening numerous
prospects for subsequent study and re-elaboration of the data, beginning
with the knowledge inventory itself. Examples of such analyses include the
re-elaboration of geologic cartography for the purpose of analysing poten-
tial formations containing asbestiform minerals, the analyses of potential
factors for specific typologies of landslide phenomena, and the analysis of
hazard and vulnerability of the road network due to rock fall phenomena.
The Arpa Piemonte Geographic Information System is therefore the
reference base for the development of specialised vertical informative
components of the Agency’s Environmental Information System, like the
Geological Information System (SIGeo – Sistema Informativo Geologico),
briefly described below, but above all as a transversal instrument for the
contextual reading and integration of different environmental phenomena
in the territory, as demonstrated in many of the case studies included in
this publication. The evolution of GIS instruments towards an increasing
integration with network technologies through the concept of Web-GIS
information services also allows the Arpa Geographic Information System
to make a significant contribution to the diffusion and sharing of environ-

mental information with the other Agencies of the Public Administration
as well as with a wider user base that ranges from the world of research
to businesses to private citizens.
1.3.2 GEOTHEMATIC INFORMATION AS AN INSTRUMENT

OF KNOWLEDGE AND IN THE ANALYSIS OF
NATURAL PHENOMENA
The Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological

Research carries out its studies and research in the field of modelling
processes of the natural environment, geological knowledge, and deals
with the management and evolution of the SIGeo (Geological Informa-
tion System) and of the Agency’s Geographic Information System. The
creation of a Geological Information System is part of the territorial pre-
vention program with the scope of carrying out a coherent planning of
anthropic activities and concrete territorial safeguarding activities. For
years there has been a systematic collection and evaluation of historical
data accompanied by direct studies of the processes aimed at the quanti-
tative and qualitative evaluation of the hazard conditions in the territory.
The use of GIS technologies allows the global management of all the
geo-related data pertaining to the various subsystems, guaranteeing the
integration of alpha-numeric, iconographic, and geographic information
connected with the Agency’s Geographic Information System.
The SIGeo (Geological Information System) is a service structure
capable of rapidly and precisely producing information and data in the
field of forecasting and prevention of natural risks. It is logically structured
in various interacting specialised components (subsystems) as follows.
Processes and Effects Subsystem

This consists of instruments for the management of the information inher-
ent to the slope, fluvial, and torrential processes that involve, or have
involved, the Piedmontese territory in typological terms of induced effects
and damage. The data are can be any of the following: specialised sources,
published material, general technical assessments (from the ordinary
activities of the Centre and other Agencies), newspaper articles, local
chronicles, archives, from both on-site surveys and the direct observations
of the ongoing natural instability process. Particular attention is paid to the
contextualization of the instability in terms of both time and space, which
must be as objective as possible, seeking to distinguish that which regards
the intrinsic aspects of the phenomenon and the direct and indirect effects
it has on the environment. The cross-comparison of the sources, in addi-
tion to allowing the evaluation of data quality, also allows the collection of
variety of aspects related to processes in terms of incidence, recurrence,
distribution, and characterisation. The integration of the historical data

with those deriving from studies and observations carried out on site makes
it possible to obtain the information needed for a zoning of the territory in
function of the most commonly recurring phenomenology. At the moment
the archives contain more than 30,000 individual reports. Therefore, the
32 significant flood events that struck the regional territory during the
20th century and the hundreds of “minor” events that occurred over a
period of time that reaches back to the middle of the 19th century can now
be described in considerable detail. As far as the “geometric” component
of spatial representation of the process in concerned, it must be consid-
ered with regards to the topic of landslide movement alone, about 34,000
landslide bodies have been identified (Arpa Piemonte, 2004). If, instead,
we intend to specify a particular typology, always in the field of slope
instability for the event of November 1994 and an area of about 600 km2
zone of the Piedmontese Langhe, 17,000 individual shallow landslides
were reported and recorded.
Source and Documentation Subsystem

The information derived from geological-morphological and geological-
technological studies regarding the regional territory are organised as
follows: scientific publications, monographs, studies for major works,
basin management plans, territorial studies of an environmental nature,
technical reports, aerial photographs, or other material that may pro-
vide useful information relative to the geological characterisation and
knowledge and in the analysis of instability processes. To this view, it is
transversal with respect to the other subsystems. Furthermore, the his-
torical collections of local newspapers with information on instabilities,
as well as planning instruments on a municipal or basin scale (Munici-
pal and Intercity Zoning Plans, Basin Management Plans) are part of the
Documentation Archive.
Geotechnical Subsystem
The purpose of this subsystem is to collect, homogenize, and analyse the
information pertinent to the physical-mechanical characterisation (in situ
and in the laboratory) of grounds, intact rocks, and rocky deposits and sub-
sequently itemize it in the Survey Archive, Field and Laboratory Testing
and Research Archive (ground and rocks), and in the Rocky Deposits
Archive. The sources consist mostly of technical reports for projects.
The stratigraphies of surveys are often taken into consideration, taking
care to homogenize the stratigraphic descriptions reported in relation to
the univocal classification implemented; furthermore, eventual tests car-
ried out in holes with the relative values are indicated (SPT – Standard
Penetration Test, permeability, dilatometric, etc.). For laboratory tests,
the archives are separated according to whether they contain informa-
tion dealing with either earth or rocks. For the latter, the geomechanical
properties of the discontinuity (JRC, JCS, shear strength, etc.) as well

as physical-mechanical parameters most frequently indicated (monoaxial
compression strength, weight per unit volume) are reported.
The characterisation of the grounds takes place by annotating the
granulometric classifications, the physical parameters (weight per unit
volume, humidity, carbonate content, etc.) and mechanical property tests
(triaxial compression, oedometric tests, shear tests, etc.). The data col-
lected, before being inserted, undergoes a rigorous verification in order to
standardise them to the input criteria adopted by the Information Sys-
tem (or the quality of the data and reference standards). Even today
the subsystem contains about 5,500 descriptions of details of test holes,
4,500 geotechnical characterisation files, 4,000 granulometric analyses,
more than 200 triaxial compression tests, 400 direct shear tests, 16,000
test holes, 200 permeability tests, as well as hundreds of rocky deposit
characterisations.
Landslide Phenomena Monitoring Subsystem

Directly inter-related to the Geotechnical Subsystem, with which it shares
the same data base, the purpose of this subsystem is to analyse the data col-
lected by the regional network for monitoring landslide movements. The
objective of this subsystem is the archiving, management, and elaboration
of the data collected by the landslide movement control systems installed
in the regional territory. There are currently about 300 sites under control
with a total of more than 1,000 instruments (conventional and fixed inclin-
ometers, piezometers, GPS and theodolite controlled survey stations,
clinometers, tape extensometers, wire strain gauges, depth, multibase test
holes, joint measurers, TDR, thermometers, crackmeter, etc.). The func-
tions made available to the user allow the characterisation of the landslide
from the point of view of movement modality (velocity and module). The
knowledge framework of the landslide allows the user to access opportune
slope reorganization interventions in order to protect people and property.
Territorial Geology Subsystem

This subsystem is fuelled by the activities of Project CARG – Surveying
and recording of the geological cartography of Italy on a 1:50.000
scale that calls for the survey and completion of 8 Geological sheets
and 4 Geothematic sheets distributed differently over the regional terri-
tory, according to national framework regulations (Laws n. 183/1989,
305/1989, 438/1995, 226/1999, 363/2000) and a specific Arpa-Apat
convention: or in other words:
• Bardonecchia and Susa geological sheets (concluded), Trino and Dego
geological sheets (being completed), Torino Est, Torino Ovest, Cesana,
Cabella Ligure, Genoa, and Voghera geological sheets (underway);
• Dego, Alba, Fossano geothematic sheets – Quadro del dissesto indotto
dall’evento del novembre 1994 (Overview of the instability induced
by the November 1994 event), Dego Sheet – Geological hazard (slope

instability).
The subsystem also contains a data base derived from a rereading
of the Geological Map of Italy on a 1:100,000 scale regarding the geo-
lithological characterisation of the Piedmontese territory. The use of GIS
technologies allows the global management of all the geo-related data
pertaining to the various subsystems, guaranteeing the integration of
alpha-numeric, iconographic information located in the various data banks
with the geographic information. The georeferencing of each individual
datum (found and managed within the relative specialised Subsystem)
allows either a territorial/cartographic reading and representation of the
datum itself or its interpretation and analysis with respect to all the
other information managed in the other Subsystems by means of a single
environment of consultation, research, and elaboration of the geographic
base. It is also capable of managing the specific applicative domains and
producing and integrating new information and service levels.
1.3.3 THE INSTRUMENTS FOR THE DIFFUSION OF

GEOTHEMATIC INFORMATION
The enormous knowledge base gathered and managed has been subjected
to a constant process of controlled and documented diffusion throughout a
diversified user base that includes all the different levels of local and cen-
tral Public Administration, corporate and private businesses, and various
academic, scientific, and environmental poles.
Beginning in 1999, the process of diffusion was strengthened through
the power of the Internet: the first experiences in diffusion through the on-
line Thematic Cartography Repertory (Repertorio di Cartografia Tema-
tica) of the Region of Piemonte (consultation and download of static
cartography, datasets, and relative meta-documentation) has quickly given
way to the implementation of the first Web-GIS on line, capable of
providing basic functions of GIS type spatial analysis (navigation of geo-
graphical data, inquiries, spatial and alpha-numerical searches, production
of personalised cartographic views, etc.) through the most common Inter-
net browsers. Among the first Web-GIS services published was the one
intended for the consultation of the information base resulting from the
Project CARG (Servizio Geologico d’Italia, 2002a, 2002b).
This step certainly contributed to the introduction of a new approach
to the sharing of geographical information: firstly, by offering a high
level of accessibility and, secondly, by introducing the culture of spa-
tial analysis, which was innovative in comparison with traditional cartog-
raphy. The parallel introduction of the meta-documentation process of the
geographical data sets through the CEN/TC 287 standard further refined
the process of diffusion by directing both the producers and users of the
Figure 1.3.3 The Internet section of the on-line Geographic Information System.
geographical data towards a logic of certifying data quality and, above

all, the usability of the data in various application contexts. Over recent
years, the evolution and consolidation of the new Web-GIS technologies
has created the opportunity and the need to extend the number of infor-
mation services to cover all the themes managed by the Arpa Geological
Information System. The diffusion system is now designed according to
a modular view based on three fundamental components: The GIS hard-
ware and software infrastructural component, the availability of a standard
data base for the multiscale topographical framework, and the application
component based on a standard Web-GIS framework.
The need for a topographical data base of reference for the presenta-
tion of the data on different scales has resulted in in-depth analyses for the
purpose of selecting, and in some cases the restructuring of, information
levels useful for a coherent territorial framework for the various scales of
data consultation (DEM with resolutions of 500 m, 50 m, and 10 m, level
extractions derived from IGM 1:100,000 cartographies, use of selections
from the CTR 1:10,000, etc.), in some cases favouring the simplicity of
reading this information over the rigour of traditional cartography. All
the information services realised are also based on a single application
component; the objective was to realise an interface with Web-GIS stan-
dard functions that could be used modularly for any thematic information
service. This facilitates the realisation and management of many different
information services that are homogeneous from a graphical point of view,
integrated functionally, and easily usable by even the less-experienced
user. The technology adopted (ESRI© ArcIMS) also makes the same infor-
mation services accessible to other traditional GIS instruments connected
in a local or geographic network (from free GIS displays like ESRI© Arc-
Explorer to professional GIS instruments) through which it then becomes
possible to integrate the data provided by means of network services with
local or resident data in a local business network. This configuration has
allowed the extension of the concept of diffusion towards an approach
of geographic data sharing, extending accessibility and integrability of
data and guaranteeing its usability by a growing user base. The same ser-
vice may in fact be implemented by users with different needs, different
instruments, and different GIS competencies.
1.3.3.1 Web-GIS active geothematic services

The information services, grouped into thematic categories and access-
ible on the Internet http://gisweb.arpa.piemonte.it/arpagis/index.htm and
RUPAR, or Rete Unitaria della Pubblica Amministrazione Regionale
(Unitary Network of the Regional Public Administration), are meta-
documented through a general descriptive form that includes the objec-
tives, authors, limits, update levels, and references to the individual
meta-documentation pages of the dataset managed. For each dataset pub-
lished, a meta-documentation form has been completed in compliance
with a new ISO 19115 standards. For the Geology and Instability cate-
gories there are the various information services available as described
below.
GEOLOGY BASE Section

• Geological Data Bank on a 1:100,000 scale. This service offers access
to the cartographic data realised between 1982 and 1993 with topo-
graphic reference base of IGM sheets on a scale of 1:100,000 (floodable
areas map, tributary and bed-type map, landslide movement map, road
network damage map, etc.).
• Geotechnics This manages the direct and guided access to the con-
sultation of all the information inherent to the physical-mechanical
characterisation of the rocks and grounds managed by the Geotechnical
Subsystem.
• Seismicity in Piemonte Direct and guided access to the consultation

of information relative to the seismic events recorded from historical
sources (earthquakes from the year 1000 to 1981) or from the instru-
mental network (earthquakes from 1982 to today) managed by Arpa
Piemonte.
• Project CARG – Geologic Map of Italy. The scope of this service is to
provide a direct and guided access to the consultation of the information
collected and electronically recorded as part of the CARG Program in
Piemonte, which has been institutionally assigned to Arpa Piemonte.
The data currently available are those relative to the Geological Sheets
Susa and Bardonecchia.
SLOPE PROCESSES Section

• IFFI – Inventario dei Phenomena Franosi in Italia (Inventory of
Landslide Phenomena in Italy). Access to the regional informa-
tion collected as part of Project IFFI in Italy and promoted by the
Figure 1.3.4 Web-GIS Information Service of the IFFI Project.

Figure 1.3.5 The Web-GIS Information Service on morphology (DEM data and 3D virtual models).
ex-National Geological Service, which today has merged into Apat,

and carried out in Piemonte between 2001 and 2004. Information con-
cerning more than 34,000 landslides that have been mapped by area,
lines, and points and their relative files with associated syntheses are
available.
• Avalanches – Direct access to cartography, an alpha-numerical data
base, photographs, and updated documents from the Avalanche Infor-
mation System shared by Arpa Piemonte and the Province of Torino.
FLOOD EVENTS Section

Users can access several services grouped for each event (flood event
October 1993, flood event November 1994, flood event October 2000)
and for the water way involved. The services allow access to all the data
collected on the ground during the days immediately following the event
and the results of the successive surveys and ground data controls. In
the case of the November 2000 event, it is also possible to consult the
iconographic archive consisting of more than 700 digital photographs and
films taken from helicopters during the hours-long event.
TOPOGRAPHY AND MORPHOLOGY Section

• Basic Territorial Elements. This service intends to offer a sim-
ple basic territorial overview on a regional level through multiple
levels of information available on different scales of visualisation.
The information presented and it modality of representation consti-
tute the basic territorial overview for most of the thematic services
available.
• 3D Morphological Model. This service offers direct access to all the
main information concerning the morphology of the regional territory.
All the information presented derives from the elaboration of data bases
and, in particular, from the DEM with a regular grid of 10 m per side,
produced experimentally by Arpa Piemonte in 2003. Data pertaining
to altimetry, slope incline and exposure, morphology, and charac-
terisation of the drainage basins may be consulted. The service also
offers a new approach to the consultation of the territorial and environ-
mental data through the implementation of virtual three-dimensional
modelling of the ground. This service also allows the consultation
of virtual 3D ground models realized with the VRML (Virtual Real-
ity Model Language) technique, which allows simplified exploration
through functions of virtual flight over a three-dimensional view of the
ground.
This catalogue will be supplemented with new information services
regarding the new geothematic information levels and other environmental
themes developed by Arpa Piemonte, like biodiversity, radiation, noise
pollution, and conservation.
Figure 1.3.6 Web-GIS

real-time integration and
diffusion scheme for
meteorological data
1.3.3.2 The extension of the Web-GIS diffusion model to

meteorology
A field that is evolving and developing significantly within the Arpa net-
work system for the diffusion of information is that of the mapping of
meteorological variables in real time.
The model adopted for the development of the system in fact allows
the management, representation, and diffusion of any spatially referenced
object to which the temporal variable may be conceptually integrated.
According to this principle, the Geographic Information System can
become an integrated analysis instrument for different thematic objects,
adding the temporal vision of the evolution of environmental phenomena
to the spatial one. According to this logic, processes for the automatic inte-
gration and elaboration of measurement data from the meteo-hydrographic
monitoring system with the data from the geographic information sys-
tem have been designed and realised in collaboration with Area for
the Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring of Arpa Piemonte. The
purpose of these processes is to construct an instrument for the analysis
Figure 1.3.7 Web-GIS Geographic Information Service on meteo data in real time (intranet version available for
the Centro Funzionale).
of meteorological phenomena capable of supplying a geographical visu-

alisation of the events and their evolution in space and time.
Web-GIS systems capable of mapping all the measurement data from
theArpa meteo-hydrographic network and from two Meteorological Radar
of Bric della Croce (TO) and Monte Settepani (SV) in real time are cur-
rently operative at the Centro Funzionale. Through these systems it is
therefore possible to follow and analyse the evolution of meteorological
phenomena in a standard geographic context regarding the measurements
from the fixed network for temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, and pre-
cipitation as well as the qualitative and quantitative estimate of the ground
precipitation deriving from radar mapping (instantaneous values accumu-
lated over 12 and 24 hours), hydrometric levels, spatial interpolations of
temperature and precipitations (minimum, maximum, and average) over
the entire regional territory and the surrounding regions.
1.3.4 THE ARPA PIEMONTE LANDSLIDE MOVEMENT

CONTROL NETWORK
The Piedmontese regional territory boasts numerous landslide movement

control systems installed by the Town or Provincial Administrations, by
Mountain Communities, or by other Agencies. These control systems are
usually realized following a flood event, following an obvious movement
of a slope, or on a sector of a slope that seems susceptible to land-
slide phenomena. In most cases, these interventions were financed by the
regional organisation following a request by the administration involved
or in response to a notification from a regional technical office. All the
control systems, in order to be efficient and effective, require attention,
maintenance, and control that may continue for several years. The man-
agement of landslide movement control systems and the interpretation of
the relative results require personnel with specific technological-scientific
skills. The abovementioned Administrations rarely have the specific tech-
nical knowledge available to be able to directly follow the carrying out
and interpretation of the necessary measures and would hardly have suf-
ficient economic resources to outsource such long-lasting assignments to
experts. The Region of Piemonte therefore instituted a special structure
called RERCOMF (Rete Regionale di Controllo sui Movimenti Franosi, or
Regional Landslide Movement Control Network), which is now part of the
Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research.
In this way controls are facilitated and their activities result as a service
offered by the regional technical structure for the benefit of LocalAgencies
in the field of instrumental controls on landslide movements.
The management of the instrumentation operated by RERCOMF has
the objectives of:
• guaranteeing that the instrumentation, installed thanks to public
financing, are fully exploited and adequately maintained;
• evaluating the evolution of landslide phenomena over time;

• verifying the effectiveness of eventual organisational interventions
actuated;
• informing the competent authorities (Towns, Law Enforcement offices,
regional offices, etc.) of the state of the evolution of landslide pheno-
mena at regularly;
• evaluating the variation of the hazard levels of landslide phenomena
following intense or prolonged rain.
The activities essentially include:
• responsibility for the instrumentation installed in situ by various
agencies;
• collection of all the documentation available on the sites where
instrumentation was installed;
• carrying out of instrumental measurements through outsourcers;
• interpreting of the overall results;
• transmitting the results and relative observations to the Municipalities
involved;
• technical consultation for Municipalities or other agencies involved in
the design and/or installation of new control systems;
• planning, design, and installation of some systems;
• promotion of research and experimentation of new control systems,
also through conventions or agreements with other agencies that deal
in the control of landslide movements;
• proposing of control systems installations on those movements whose
evolution may generate risk for persons or infrastructures.
Arpa Piemonte offers the financing necessary for the services men-
tioned above; the Municipality or the agency involved faces no costs
whatsoever. Furthermore, the Agency provides, with its own funds,
the continuous installation of measurement instruments where they are
deemed necessary for a better understanding of the changing dynam-
ics at the more critical sites. The network is extensive and includes
numerous sites, today just fewer than 300, each of which is equipped
with relatively few instruments. There are some exceptional phenom-
ena, the main ones being the landslides of Rosone in the Town of
Locana (TO) and Ceppo Morelli (VB) that are equipped with complex
instrumentation connected to central systems, which also carry out alert
functions.
The most common instruments are the manually controlled inclinom-
eters and the measurements are controlled with a frequency that varies
from once every two years to four times per year according to the criticality
of the site (Table 1.3.1). Today movements from about 100 sites are being
reported. The results are transmitted to the agency involved with varying
frequency according to the criticality of the site; overall, RERCOMF
transmits about 500 reports per year.
TABLE 1.3.1 ARPA PIEMONTE LANDSLIDE

MONITORING NETWORK
Monitored sites [n] 300
Topographic surveys 35
(conventional or GPS) [n]
Inclinometers [n] 650
Inclinometers [m] 23’000
In-place inclinometers [n] 20
Piezometers [n] 350
Extensometers [n] 120
Automated data
100
recording units [n]
In the immediate future an expansion of these activities is planned

through the following:
• analyses of the results of the IFFI project in Piemonte in order to produce
a rational list of landslide phenomena that may require the installation
of a control system;
• verification of the applicability and the results of the satellite interfer-
ometry technique with the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) applied
to the controls of the landslide movements. Some Piedmontese
administrations have already carried out SAR studies on their own
account; Arpa Piemonte is developing a self-financed project on four
sample sites;
• evaluation of the details of the changing dynamics of some landslide
phenomena equipped with continual instrumentation in order to trace
the relationships between rains, piezometric levels, and movements that
may be useful for the integration of the regional warning procedures
for the hydrogeological risk managed by Arpa Piemonte;
• network diffusion, through the Web-GIS instruments described above,
of the data base relative to the controls;
• use of the RUPAR for the diffusion of results to the agencies involved.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Arpa Piemonte (2004), Il Progetto IFFI in Piemonte: Inventario dei penomeni

franosi in Italia. Archivio Centro Regionale per le Ricerche Territoriali e
Geologiche (http://gisweb.arpa.piemonte.it/arpagis/index.htm) (in Italian).
Mc Harg I.L. (1969), Design with Nature. Doubleday & Company, Inc. Garden
City, New York.
Servizio Geologico d’Italia (2002a), Carta Geologica d’Italia in scala 1:50.000
Foglio 132-152-153 Bardonecchia. Servizio Geologico Nazionale, Ente realiz-
zatore Regione Piemonte – Direzione Regionale Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione
(in Italian).
Servizio Geologico d’Italia (2002b), Carta Geologica d’Italia in scala 1:50.000
Foglio 154 Susa Servizio Geologico Nazionale, Ente realizzatore Regione
Piemonte – Direzione Regionale Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione (in Italian).
1.4 GLOSSARY
In order to establish a standardised glossary of terms related to risk, it

is necessary to make a few considerations. In contemporary culture, risk
assumes different meanings that have undergone a profound scientific
evolution over the centuries and that sharply reflect different social, cul-
tural, political, and religious contexts in which ideas are developed. Since
ancient times, literature has offered a great variety of interpretations of
risk and probably the historic-linguistic analysis of this concept, beyond
any pretext of completeness and precision, can contribute (methodologic-
ally) to the analysis of the question. The term “risk” derives from the Arab
word rizq, indicating the tax that natives paid in kind for the maintenance
of occupying troops, while the term “azar” was used by Arabs to indi-
cate events that happen without due or foreseen causes. This last term
is the root of the concept of “hazard”, today used frequently as a syno-
nym of risk. The Latin language instead uses three distinct terms: (1) alea
[-ae], uncertain result, jeopardy; (2) discrimen [-inis], separation, discern-
ment; (3) periculum [-i], danger. These three terms appropriately identify
the three-part nature of risk: its stochastic dimension, the uncertainty
of the inherent choices to be made, and its dangerous nature (Marchis,
1999).
Over the centuries, the Arab term rizq spread throughout the Mediter-
ranean basin in the neo-Latin form risicum or resicum, thanks to Genoese
and Venetian navigators, in reference to a maritime insurance to guarantee
their cargo. In pre-modern time, the term “risk” indicated the possibility
of an objective danger (a storm or some other maritime threat) that was
not caused by human error. This concept of risk excluded the idea of a
human error or responsibility (Lupton, 2003). The changes in meaning
and usage of the term “risk” are linked to the onset of modernity, a process
that began during the 17th century and took shape during the 18th century.
Modernity is founded on the idea, elaborated by Illuminists, that the key to
human progress is an objective knowledge of the world, pursued by means
of scientific investigation and rational thought. This assumes that both the
natural and the social world follow constant laws that can be measured, cal-
culated, and therefore, predicted. Over the 18th and 19th centuries, while
the first modern European states were organising their populations with a
view to industry, the birth of the theory of probability and statistics led to
the calculation of the standard and its deviations. These new disciplines,
by contributing to the “control of disorder and unpredictability”, played
an important role in the elaboration of the technical and modernistic con-
cept of risk. With the development of the insurance sector during the 19th
century, the risk factor no longer resided exclusively with nature, but also
with human beings and with their conduct. In modern times, the concept of
risk was used in its purely technical acceptation, exclusively in reference

to events with noted or estimable probability; instead, for circumstances
with an unknown probability, the term “uncertainty” was used.
An important consideration to be underlined is that the modernist
notion of risk left space for the distinction between “good” risk and “bad”
risk. The concept of risk, as elaborated in the field of insurance, evokes the
notion of chance or probability on one hand, while on the other it brings
to mind loss or damage. From this perspective, risk is a neutral concept.
Currently, these minor distinctions between risk and uncertainty, “good”
risk and “bad” risk, tend to fade: today, the term “risk” is generally used
exclusively in reference to negative or undesirable results and not positive
ones (Lupton, 2003). Risks associated with activities that imply bene-
fits are unconsciously ignored or, at least, underestimated, while risks
associated with activities that do not imply benefits are often otherwise
emphasised. This leads to the belief that the perception of risk is not a
rational phenomenon, but originates in the fear of the unknown and the
possible harmful consequences of any type that it may be (Piccinini, 1999).
The expression “good risk” survives exclusively in economic jargon where
it is used in relation to the accumulation of profits. In daily speech, the
term “risk” tends to be used almost exclusively to indicate threat, hazard,
danger, and damage. In contemporary western society, the noun “risk” and
the adjective “risky” are used extremely frequently in all speech, whether
profane or refined. The concept of risk is immersed in a vast range of
specific investigations, knowledge, and indications: analysis, evaluation,
information, and management are fields of research and activities aimed at
measuring and controlling risk in environments that range from medicine
and public health to finance, law, business, industry, etc.
Today, the political world is increasingly aware of the need to deal
with risk management, which requires technical-scientific and human-
istic disciplines to provide clear answers. However, the considerable
specialization that has currently reached these disciplines inevitably leads
to an increased specialization of the definitions. It is therefore neces-
sary, when faced with the problem of compiling a glossary on risk, to
specify the range of application of the terms and sources of the relative
definitions.
This chapter includes the main terms inherent to natural risk with the
relative definitions, extrapolated and translated from some leading stud-
ies (UN-DHA-IDNDR, 1992; Cruden & Fell, 1997; UN-ISDR, 2002;
Bonnard et al., 2004) that have synthesized a vast lexicon present in
international literature. Furthermore, some definitions of natural risk
according to standards currently accepted in Italy that mainly refer to the
report of Varnes & IAEG (1984) and reported in the Decree of the Prime
Minister of September 29th, 1998 (actuation of the Decree of the Prime
Ministry 180 on June 11th, 1998 in Law n. 225 of February 24th, 1992)
are cited herein. The present glossary does not, instead, refer to terms spe-
cifically related to the characterisation of the individual natural processes
Glossary 35
in that, for some, there are detailed glossaries adopted on international

levels (Multilingual Glossary for Landslides – UNESCO-WP/WLI, 1993;
RIG, 1995; il Multilingual Glossary snow and avalanches – published
in 2003 on the Internet site www.avalanches.org; Environment Gloss-
ary by European Environment Information and Observation Network –
EIONET – www.eionet.eu.int/gemet).
A
Acceptable Risk
This corresponds to the level of loss that a community considers accept-
able in relation to pre-existing social, economic, political, cultural, and
technical conditions. In other words, it is the level of risk beyond /or below
which a society does not intend to invest resources for its reduction (for
example, because the investments surpass the benefits).
Area involved
Area involved in the evolution of a phenomenon. It includes the triggering
area and the run out area of the phenomenon.
C
Calamity (or Calamitous event)
Large scale destruction that causes high losses in terms of human life, the
environment, and material and economic goods. The damage surpasses
the capacity of the community involved to resolve the situation with their
own resources.
Calamitous event See Calamity.
Civil protection plans
Non-structural measures finalised at the reduction of social risk through
the identification of risk areas and the programming and organisation
of emergency interventions. They take into consideration numerous risk
scenarios. The safe and unsafe areas, number of people to be warned and
eventually evacuated, and the logistics of emergency rescue operations
are identified for each scenario. The great advantage of these plans is that
they are not very costly and can be prepared and tested before an event.
The civil protection plan must be combined with a monitoring and alert
system.
D
Danger (natural)
A potential or evolving natural process that can produce negative effects
for man or for the environment. Danger is represented by the intensity of
the process and by the area involved.
Disaster (or Disastrous event) See Calamity and Natural
catastrophe.
Disastrous event See Calamity and Natural catastrophe.
E
Element at risk
The entity (for example, people, property, economic activities, services
and infrastructures, etc.) within the area involved.
Emergency
A critical situation linked to a natural event (imminent, ongoing, or that
has just occurred) that demands urgent and extraordinary intervention
finalised at reducing the damage.
Emergency management
The organisation of the competencies/responsibilities and resources in
relation to all the aspects regarding emergencies (an ongoing event or
one that has just ended). Emergency management integrates, within a
limited time interval, special structures and procedures by combining
and coordinating ordinary activities of public and private organisations
(institutions and/or volunteers).
Expected damage (or Potential damage)
The amount of potential losses in case of an event of a certain intensity.
Conventionally, the expected damage (D) is expressed as the product of
the value of the element at risk (E) and its vulnerability (V).
D =E×V (1.4.1)
The unit of measure used to indicate damage depends on the unit of
measure used to indicate the value.
F
Forecasting
A precise or statistically estimated indication on the occurrence of a future
event. This term, which assumes a vast range of meanings according to
the discipline in which it is used, includes numerous implications of a
terminological nature. In fact, forecasting regards different aspects:
• forecasting the type of event;
• forecasting in terms of time;
• spatial forecasting;
• forecasting the consequences.
H
Hazard
The temporal probability that an event of a given intensity involves a cer-
tain area during a specific time interval. Hazard includes latent conditions
representing a future threat for man and the environment and is generally
expressed in terms of annual probability.
Hazard analysis
Identification and evaluation of characteristic elements that define danger:
process typology, intensity, area involved, and probability of occurrence.
Glossary 37
These elements can be described in qualitative, quantitative, or semi-

quantitative terms.
I
Intensity
The geometric and mechanical severity of a phenomenon. Intensity can
be expressed on a relative scale or in terms of one or more characteristic
dimensions of the phenomenon (volume, velocity, energy, etc).
L
Land use planning
Programming of the different uses of the land (productive, residential,
agricultural, etc.). Correct planning, which occurs on various territorial
and administrative levels, balances the distribution of human settlements
in the natural environment, taking into account the harmonic development
of anthropic activities (economic, social, productive, cultural, etc.) as well
as environmental needs. Rational programming of the territory greatly
facilitates the reduction of risk in that it regulates anthropic expansion in
the areas potentially involved in natural events (for example, by imped-
ing the creation of new settlements in flood prone areas or defining the
construction characteristics for buildings in seismic areas).
M
Magnitude
A measure of the intensity of some natural phenomena. In particular, in
the field of natural risks, the term magnitude is used to express the energy
of an earthquake and the volume of the debris flows.
Mitigation
This is one of the important phases of risk management that is carried
out continually and progressively in times of emergency and not. It con-
sists of the limitation of expected damage through the use of structural
and non-structural measures. The choices of action may be directed in
three directions: towards a reduction of danger, towards a reduction of
risk, or towards a reduction of both. Reducing danger means diminishing
the probability of occurrence or the intensity of an event. Diminishing
risk means, instead, reducing the vulnerability or the number of ele-
ments exposed to danger, whether people or property (building, infra-
structures, etc.).
N
Natural catastrophe
A disastrous natural event that causes the passage from well-being to ruin
and misery. This term is often used as a synonym for calamity or natural
disaster.
Natural event
Process or phenomenon with origins as follows:
• geological (earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic activity, gravitational slope
movement, subsidence, etc.);
• hydro-meteorological (fluvial and torrential processes, avalanches,
cyclones, precipitations, drought, etc.);
• biological (epidemics, diffusion of flora-fauna, etc.).
Usually this is attributed to natural events with a negative significance,
intended as those phenomena that can cause damage to anthropic systems
(also see Danger). It is important to specify, however, that such events are
normal processes in the evolution of the biosphere that intervene mostly
independently of human presence and not always with negative impact for
man (for example, flood capable of fertilizing the land).
Non-structural measures
Planning instruments capable of reducing the risk level. These measures do
not seek to physically contrast the natural process, but rather monitor their
evolution in order to eventually manage human response in a more rational
manner (for example, civil protection plans). Traditionally, non-structural
interventions were taken into consideration when the realisation of struc-
tural measures was ineffective, unfeasible, or too costly. Today, the ten-
dency of those who manage risk is to consider the possibility of realising
combined structural and non-structural interventions contemporaneously.
P
Perception of risk
The subjective evaluation of risk by an individual or a community.
Preparation
Activities and measures readied in advance to provide an efficient response
to the impact of a natural event, including the timely emission of warning
codes and the eventual temporary evacuation of the population from the
risk area.
Prevention
The set of activities aimed at reducing or annulling the risk level. The
following are part of prevention actions:
• development of knowledge (study and research);
• diffusion of information (awareness of a “prevention culture”);
• planning of contrasting interventions (mitigation measures);
• realisation and management of the warning system (monitoring,
forecasting, civil protection).
R
Reconstruction
Actions carried out following an event in order to restore the areas involved
to the pre-event living conditions, with particular regard to risk reduction.
Glossary 39
This generally consists of two main phases: an initial phase consists of the
restoration, even if only temporary, of the most important infrastructures
(telecommunications, energy, strategic roadways, etc.) during the event
and immediately following; a second phase consists of reconstruction of an
undetermined duration that must be planned and regards all the structures
and infrastructures.
Residual risk
The rate of risk that persists in spite of or following a reduction of risk.
Response
Intervention and assistance provided to the population during or imme-
diately after an event. These actions are aimed specifically at safety for
human life and to the meeting of primary needs. They are generally of a
limited duration.
Risk
Risk is the probability that an event, caused by the interaction between
the evolution of natural events and human activities in a broader sense,
may have negative consequences for human life, property and resources,
for economic activities, and the environment. Conventionally, risk
(R) is expressed as the multiplication of hazard (H ) by the expected
damage (D):
R=H ×D (1.4.2)
Risk is generally expressed in temporal terms of annual probability, as is

hazard.
Risk analysis
The identification and elaboration of all the information inherent to risk
based on the results of the hazard analysis. Risk analysis includes the
following phases:
• hazard analysis;
• identification and evaluation of the elements at risk (persons, prop-
erty, etc);
• evaluation of vulnerability;
• calculation of expected damage;
• definition of risk.
Risk management
The systematic process regarding the analysis and the control of risk
aimed at actuating policies and strategies for the reduction of the risk
itself. Risk management consists of administrative, organisational, and
operative decisions based on the evaluation of risk analysis and the com-
petencies and responsibilities of the actors involved (public and private
agencies and volunteers).
Risk reduction
Systematic development and application of policies, strategies, and
procedures aimed at reducing vulnerability, impeding (prevention) or
limiting (mitigation and preparation) the negative impact of natural events.
Risk reduction includes:
• knowledge and assessment of the risk (danger and risk analysis);
• diffusion of information (technical-scientific training and publications);
• institutional political action (legislation, organisation, and financing);
• the application of active measure (planning, realisation of structural
works, evaluation, etc.);
• the realisation of warning systems (forecasting, warning codes, coor-
dinated response).
S
Scenario
The quantitative, qualitative, or semi-quantitative description of a hazard
or risk situation. A risk scenario includes the description of the damage
in relation to a hazard scenario, which in turn includes the description of
the danger and the relative probability of occurrence.
Structural measures
Works capable of acting actively or passively in order to contrast a natural
process. Active when the works avoid the triggering of the phenomenon;
passive when the works avoid the run out. The choice of the type of active
or passive intervention or a combination of both depends largely on the
characteristics of the process, of the operational possibilities with regards
to the construction, and the cost/benefits ratio. In order to size the work,
or in other words, to define the geometric and structural characteristics,
it is necessary to know the intensity of the process that makes the work
necessary: the greater the intensity of the process, the more resistant the
work must be to contrast it, and generally, the stronger the works, the more
they cost.
V
Value of the elements at risk
The quantification of the elements at risk, through the attribution of a quan-
titative evaluation (economic value, number of entities), semi-quantitative
or qualitative (high, mid, or low value). The attribution of a value to each
element at risk is a controversial aspect of the risk analysis in that it is
difficult to express it univocally. In fact, even if it is possible to attribute
a monetary value to economic activities or to properties, it is difficult to
place a value on people or the environmental heritage. Furthermore, the
evaluation of elements at risk is strongly linked to the political, social,
cultural, and religious context of where the risk analysis is conducted.
The European IMIRILAND Project (Bonnard et al., 2004) proposed a
Glossary 41
methodology by which four categories of value are identified (phys-

ical, economic, social, and environmental). A specific risk analysis is
conducted for each category (see §2.2).
Vulnerability
The degree of loss of a certain element of risk, or groups of elements, due
to the impact of a natural phenomenon of a given intensity. It is expressed
in qualitative and quantitative terms on a scale from 0 (no loss) to 1 (total
loss) and is a function of the intensity of the acting process and the typology
of the element at risk.
W
Warning (or Warning systems)
The set of procedures that provide effective real time information,
allowing the institutions and population involved in a natural event
to react to the risk situation. The warning is composed of four main
elements:
• monitoring of the situation;
• forecast of the imminent events (data processing and application of
forecasting models);
• spread of warning codes to institutions and the population;
• response action (protection and/or evacuation).
Warning systems See Warning.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bonnard C., Forlati F. & Scavia C. (eds.) (2004), Identification and mitiga-
tion of large landslide in Europe. Advances in risk assessment. IMIRILAND
PROJECT, European Commission – Fifth Framework Programme. Rotterdam,
Balkema.
Cruden D. & Fell R. (eds.) (1997), Landslide risk assessment. Proc. Int. Workshop,
Honolulu, 19–21 February 1997. Rotterdam, Balkema.
Lupton D. (2003), Il rischio. Percezione, simboli, culture (a cura di Maria Filippi).
Bologna, Società Editrice il Mulino (in Italian).
Marchis V. (1999), La dimensione storica del concetto di rischio, in Mela A.,
Piccinini N. & Vineis P. (eds.), Rischio e ambiente. Istituto di Studi Superiori
di Scienze Umane e Politecnico di Torino. Torino, Otto srl (in Italian).
Piccinini N. (1999), Significato attuale del termine rischio, in Mela A.,
Piccinini N. & Vineis P. (eds.), Rischio e ambiente. Istituto di studi Superiori
di Scienze Umane e Politecnico di Torino. Torino, Otto srl (in Italian).
RIG [Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica] (1995), Glossario Internazionale per le frane,
n. 2/95.
UNESCO-WP/WLI [Working Party on World Landslide Inventory] (1993),
Multilingual Glossary for Landslides, Canadian Geot. Society.
UN-DHA-IDNDR [United Nations/Department of Humanitarian Affairs/

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, 1990–1999] (1992), Inter-
national Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management.
Genevre (CH), United Nation.
UN-ISDR [United Nations/Inter-Agency Secretariat for Disaster Reduction]
(2002), Living with Risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives.
Genevre (CH), United Nation.
Varnes D.J. & IAEGS [Int. Ass. of Eng. Geology Commission on Landslides
and other Mass Movements] (1984), Landslide hazard zonation; a review of
principles and practice. Paris, UNESCO.
The Assessment
of Hazard and Risk 2
2.1 Meteorological Phenomena
2.1.1 INTRODUCTION
Meteorological conditions constitute one of the elements of nature that

most strongly influence not only the environment and the territory, where
in some cases they bring about significant and violent modifications, but
also man in his overall social, economic, and productive context, his
settlements, his properties and infrastructures, his short-term and long
term well-being, and his general quality of life. In order to be understood
and correctly interpreted within a system for forecasting, preventing, and
mitigating natural hazards, the meteorological factor must be considered
in relation to the effects that it causes, depending on the sensitivity, vul-
nerability, and exposure of the ecosystem and its interaction with other
typologies of risks that may result a significant cumulative effect.
The analyses and forecasting of these effects call for the integrated
modelling of diverse phenomena and processes at the base of the poten-
tial impact on the territory, the environment, and man, for the following
purposes: 1) to carry out an overall evaluation of the seriousness, the range,
and the intensity of the impact itself, 2) to identify the elements to be acted
on for effective prevention, and 3) to verify the usefulness of mitigation
measures. The effects of intense precipitation may, for example, differ
greatly according to the ground capacity, even if contingent, to absorb
and drain meteoric water, or to the transformation rate of snow to water,
to the condition and level of catchment basins, or even more simply, to
the season of the year during which the event takes place. If emissions are
largely unchanged, the knowledge of the daily fluctuations in atmospheric
pollution depends exclusively on meteorology and its forecasts for the
development of solutions or provisions to diminish exposure of the most
susceptible categories of the population, but that for optimal effective-
ness must be integrated with epidemiological and exposure models. This
contextualization and finalization of meteorological forecasting guides
the development of all Arpa-related activities, including those of system
quality evaluation. The verification of a meteorological forecast must also
take into consideration the specific target application of that forecast: a
few millimetres of precipitation forecasted correctly has no significant
impact on the warning procedures for hydrogeological risk, but it may be
essential for the eventual lifting of traffic limitation provisions.
An important characteristic of meteorological phenomena is the space-
time scale that distinguishes them. Several forecasting possibilities are
available that allow the application of integrated risk assessment method-
ologies up to a certain degree of detail and with varying precision. From
a temporal point of view, the use of short-term forecasting during a
46 The Assessment of Hazard and Risk
significant meteorological event is fundamental for the management of

all the safeguarding operations and safety provisions and, for this pur-
pose, an observatory network that allows reliable monitoring, together
with the interpretative capacity of the data, is still today the most effi-
cient instrument. For longer periods of time, from short term (1–2 days)
to mid-term (7–10 days), numerical modelling allows even quantitative
forecasting with a certain degree of spatial detail, but with an accuracy
rate that declines rapidly from the third day of forecasting onwards. This
anticipated forecast/forecast accuracy coupling also governs the timing
framework upon which an efficient system of forecasting, surveillance
and alarm must be planned. In fact, the assessment of many typologies of
risk, like the diffusion and dispersion of pollutants from localized sources
in the vicinity of large industrial plants or from extemporaneous or volatile
sources like fires or heavy hailstorms that may impact cultivated areas,
calls for a meteorological forecast with precise temporal details. The appli-
cation of suitable post-processing algorithms, provided there is also a
reliable associated measurement, results in a quantitative forecasting of
highly contextualized and verifiable local meteorological parameters that
can be more effectively applied to the decision-making process. In any
case, for a forecast for a few days, the refinement of the spatial scale
is now possible through the application of a model hierarchy capable of
obtaining horizontal resolutions as high as one kilometre, which is how-
ever accompanied by a progressive uncertainty regarding the verification
of its coherence with reality.
This sort of magnifying glass has in fact allowed the multiplication of
the modalities of representation of the physical processes within meteoro-
logical models as well as the description of the physical environment
to which such processes belong from different points of view and with
increasingly greater detail, therefore generating more complex interaction
among the factors in question. The result of this operation, which also coin-
cides with the avant-garde of meteorological modelling, is the generation
of diverse scenarios of forecasted precipitation for the same event, each of
which is self-referential and univocally presents itself as a deterministic
scenario. In the case of intense precipitations that cause flooding, land-
slide, and hydrogeological instability, there is almost always a common
signal of potential criticality in the various scenarios. However, the diverse
distribution of the quantity of precipitation over time makes the use of the
forecasted quantity of precipitation for the purpose of the point assessment
of the level hydrogeological risk expected on a significant portion of the
territory impractical with regards to the adoption of prevention or contrast
measures, from safeguards to the closing of bridges or even an evacuation
of inhabited areas. There is an ongoing effort by the scientific community
to experiment the joint use of different forecasted precipitation scenarios,
intended as different representations of the same natural phenomenon,
through objective methodologies. This should improve the quantity of
precipitation forecasted for the purpose of applying warning systems for
Meteorological Phenomena 47
natural hazards triggered or favoured by intense precipitation. Regarding

more extended forecasts, recent developments in seasonal forecasts allow
large scale applications of indicators or bioindicators on various levels of
complexity that are capable of supplying information that allows the adop-
tion of planning strategies, especially in potentially critical environmental
situations: for example, drought indicators in situations of water deficit or
the persistence of hot-humid conditions that may cause psycho-physical
discomfort.
A meteorological danger has a good possibility of being foreseen and
the most recent developments are oriented above all on the improvement of
the space-time details of the forecast and on extending its anticipation. The
experiences conducted by Arpa during the construction and finalization
of the regional warning system for hydrogeological risk has demonstrated
how coordinated surveillance, forecasting, and prevention – the latter
being defined with all those involved in the process – can reduce the poten-
tial effects of an adverse meteorological situation and allow contrasting
intervention, actually diminishing the level of risk that the community
must face.
2.1.2 CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES
Among the meteorological variables, rainy or snowy precipitation,

together with the altitude limit of its transformation between the two states,
is undoubtedly the meteorological variable that causes the greatest impact
in the genesis of potentially dangerous hydrogeological and nivological
situations. Flood phenomena with the overflow of drainage basins of aver-
age and ample surface areas are normally caused by intense and persistent
rains while the processes of alluvial slopes and the flooding in proxim-
ity of small torrents and streams are frequently triggered by brief but
considerably intense storm phenomena sometimes accompanied by hail.
The hazard thresholds are different for the various morphologically
homogeneous areas that Piemonte can be divided into; in a zone where
rains are frequent, the ground has a higher precipitation absorption
capacity, resulting in trigger thresholds that are higher than in areas
subjected to less rain.
The analyses of intense precipitation situations have clarified the
importance of humidity flows in an orographically complex territory.
Moreover, flows that are perpendicular to the orography and trigger ver-
tical upward speeds are intensified by their interaction with reliefs. In
these cases the humid air reaches saturation conditions more easily and
more rapidly with a greater probability of having high precipitation val-
ues. Vice-versa, the sites that are downwind from the humid flow have
less precipitation, with the exception of localities in the proximity of
watersheds.
Low pressure areas with an ample space-time scale usually cause

episodes of widespread, persistent, and locally intense precipitation that
are frequently associated with overflow phenomena of a certain relevance
and extension. These, however, are usually forecasted with sufficient
accuracy by the meteorological models that are currently in use.
Greater difficulties are related to the analyses and forecasting of
thunderstorm phenomena: in fact, they are characterised by an intrin-
sic unpredictability related to multiple factors that determine their cause
and influence their evolution. With the exception of cases in which the
phenomenon is not strongly organised in a frontal system or squall lines,
the storm can be structured with such a local nature that even a numeri-
cal model for a limited area and with high spatial resolution would have
difficulty tracking it. It is therefore necessary to constantly monitor the
general evolution of the atmospheric circulation based on satellite and
radar imaging (the so-called nowcasting), on analysis and forecasting
documents, as well as on the latest radiosonde equipment in such a way as
to have quantitative information on the stability or instability of the atmo-
sphere. The fields of precipitation forecasted by models are in fact not
very reliable in the case of storms that, as already mentioned, can be influ-
enced by various factors (atmospheric instability, changes in temperature
and humidity at various levels, wind shear, jet-effect wind, and orographic
effects). It is therefore important that the forecaster make a detailed exam-
ination of the various fields available in the output from meteorological
models, especially from local models, in order to recognise the conditions
that favour storm development.
The thunderstorms that occur in Piemonte can be divided into two main
categories: heat thunderstorms and frontal and prefrontal thunderstorms.
They usually occur in the spring, summer, and early autumn. Heat thun-
derstorms are typical of the Alpine and pre-Alpine areas when humid air is
made instable during the daytime by intense solar radiation, setting off the
development of cumuliform clouds with heating of the lower layers of the
atmosphere and rising air along reliefs. In the case of strong solar heating,
the absence of significant winds and the presence of stagnant, humid air,
and with the addition of daytime evaporation, this type of thunderstorm
can also develop in the flat lands, especially those inland and behind
the reliefs; these are the heat thunderstorms that bring the most intense
precipitation. They generally occur during summer afternoons when the
thermal activity reaches its maximum intensity.
The typical period of heat thunderstorms is shorter on the higher
reliefs due to the snowy mantle that keeps the environment somewhat
cold, inhibiting the daytime rising of air masses. In any case, a heat thun-
derstorm occurs with good weather conditions, even with relatively high
surface pressure (1012–1018 hPa) when the existing air mass is forced to
stay put by the scarce circulation and is capable of heating and humidify-
ing itself sufficiently and increasing its instability. Moreover, conditions
exist that can further favour the development of this type of phenomena,
Figure 2.1.1 Analyses of

the geopotential height at
500 hPa (colours) and of the
sea level pressure (isolines)
of the 12 UTC on June 4th,
2003.
like weak infiltrations of cooler air rising from the Alpine valleys or due
to weak flows from W-NW. Heat thunderstorms are phenomena that tend
to last a short time and, as already pointed out, their predictability is very
low. An example of heat thunderstorm is that of June 4th, 2003 (Figure
2.1.1): in this case Piemonte found itself along the borderline between
a trough in western Europe and an upper level ridge of high pressure
that was expanding onto the central Mediterranean. This situation did not
change substantially for the entire day, but the influx of hot, humid air into
Piemonte and a modest advection of upper-level cold air (of approximately
1–2◦ C at 500 hPa), was sufficient to cause a situation of atmospheric insta-
bility (Figure 2.1.2), triggering thunderstorms of essentially convective
origins (Figure 2.1.3).
Frontal and pre-frontal thunderstorms are the most violent and long-
lasting (about 6–12 hours and in some cases even longer) and are
associated with the highest values of precipitation, even if the transla-
tional motion of the cells, driven by the front, can spread the quantity over
wider portions of the territory. These thunderstorms are generally associ-
ated with high instability, sudden drops in pressure, influxes of cold air
following a hot spell, strong convergence in lower levels, intense convec-
tive motion, and the absence of strong winds that impede the development
of vertical motion. More specifically there are:
1) frontal thunderstorms generated by a cold front. The passage of a cold
front induces the rising of hot, humid air already present in the territory
with a consequential rapid condensation of the humidity present, which
triggers precipitation. These are the most predictable phenomena that
Figure 2.1.2 Analyses of the Whiting instability index at 00 UTC. 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC of
June 4th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.3 Precipitation accumulated in 12 hours: first and second part of the day June 4th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.4 Lightning in 12 hours that occurred during the first and second part of the day of June 4th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.5 Analyses of the geopotential height at 500 hPa on July 8th, 2004 at 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC
and on July 9th, 2004 at 00 UTC.
may occur any time during the day, driven by a precise force. We can
observe a concomitant sudden drop in surface pressure;
2) prefrontal thunderstorms are more likely in the hot sector of a frontal
system; their predictability is inferior to that of frontal thunderstorms
in that they depend strongly on the hot, humid air of the warm front, the
speed of the advancing cold front, and may be strongly influenced by

orographic effects. They tend to form in frontal mesolines and may set
off a chain reaction by which the appearance of some cells promotes
the subsequent triggering of other storm cells, which are in turn driven
by the constant decrease in surface pressure.
The widespread situations of criticality that occurred in Piemonte over
the past 20 years, and in particular during the floods of November 1994
and October 2000, saw intense and persistent precipitation conditions
linked to large scale configurations, which then caused intense convective
phenomena that gave higher precipitation values concentrated over time.
These conditions were responsible for the main effects. An example of a
frontal thunderstorm is the one that occurred on July 8th, 2004 when a
cold front associated with a trough over western Europe approached Italy,
bringing a strong flow of cold air and strong thunderstorms, especially
in northern Piemonte where the frontal drive joined an orographic one,
which brings the duration of the phenomena to approximately 24 hours
(Figure 2.1.6).
Figure 2.1.6 Analyses of the temperature at 500 hPa of July 8th, 2004 at 06 UTC, 12 UTC, and 18 UTC and
on July 9th, 2004 at 00 UTC.
Figure 2.1.7 Precipitation

accumulated in 24 hours
from 00 UTC on July 8th,
2004 until 00 UTC on July
9th, 2004.

from 00 UTC on July 7th,
2004 until 00 UTC on July
8th, 2004.
It must also be emphasised that a thunderstorm is rarely caused by

only one of the above mentioned conditions (for example, a cold front
may pass during the afternoon hours, or prefrontal thunderstorms may
be followed by true frontal thunderstorms) and the overlapping of more
forces can increase the unpredictability of the thunderstorm and amplify its
potential negative effects (rain, hail, lightning, strong winds, whirlwinds).
The unpredictability of the phenomena is often amplified by systematic
errors in the models (even over a limited area).
Situations that are favourable to the development of violent thunder-

storms driven by large scale conditions are advections of upper-level cold
air following at least two days of humid air flow under anticyclonic condi-
tions, a cold airshed following high humidity due to a previous depression
that caused weak or no precipitation, or a cold airshed associated with
the formation of a depression over Piemonte. The atmospheric instabil-
ity indices like Whiting, Showalter, Total-totals, Lifted index, and CAPE
characterise thunderstorm situations. Table 2.1.1 summarises some of
these characteristics. The application of the calculation of thermodynamic
indices to the analyses of the thunderstorm of August 17th–18th, 2004
supplies the indices values reported in Table 2.1.2.
Other characteristics of the atmosphere observed during the period
before the development of intense convective situations are the vertical
profile, forecasted or observed during the moments before the develop-
ment of the thunderstorm, saturated for at least 2000–3000 m altitude,
and the unstable humid vertical profile (potential equivalent temperature
decreasing with the altitude).
Intense low-level snowfalls lead to problems with traffic on roads,
airports, motorways, and in urban centres with risk of accidents, flight
cancellations, and vehicle traffic slowdowns with consequential fall-out
on the socio-economic system; in hilly areas, abundant snowfall can lead
to the isolation of a hamlet that is far from urban centres, creating sup-
ply problems for the inhabitants. The condition for snow accumulating
on the ground is conventionally given by a negative value, or <0◦ C,
dew point; while the conversion from mm of precipitation to cm of
snow is on an average 1 mm to 1 cm; however, in the case of snow-
fall with large snowflakes, the ratio can reach up to 1.5 cm of snow,
while with temperatures below −10◦ C the ratio may fall to values of less
than a cm.
Forecasting experience in recent years has called attention to how the
occurrence of snow at low altitudes can rarely be predicted with a reason-
able degree of certainty on Piedmontese territory, as in the cases in which
the temperature in proximity of the ground surface is decidedly lower
than 0◦ C: episodes in which the freezing level is around 600–700 m with
a temperature around 2◦ C in the flatlands are in fact frequent. In the latter
case, an error of only 1–2◦ C in the forecasted temperature can determine a
situation of rain rather than snow or vice-versa, with completely different
ground effects.
Thick fog is another meteorological phenomenon that has serious neg-
ative impact on road and traffic conditions, especially on motorways and
rural roads, where the danger lies mostly in the possibility of multiple car
accidents due to the low visibility. There is also a strong effect on airport
activity, with departure flight cancellations and arrivals being diverted to
other airports.
In the Po River valley, the fog and the mists are mainly of a radiative
type, or determined by the cooling of the earth’s surface until the air
TABLE 2.1.1 DEFINITION AND FEATURES OF MAIN THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY INDEXES
Index Features Threshold values Notes
It estimates the instability of an air mass Instability and probability of storms to It is not suitable for forecasting extreme
by means of thermic and hygrometric occur are moderate with values between conditions but is a good indicator of the
parameters in the low troposphere, i.e. in 15 and 35 and high with values between convection extent.
the layer between 850 hPa and 500 hPa. 25 and 35.
Triggering and development of storms With regard to the analysis of case
depend on three main thermic factors and histories in Piemonte, a threshold of 30
two corrective dynamic ones: can be significant for the development
Whiting 1) Vertical thermic gradient T850–T500; of violent storms.
2) Air humidity in the lower levels Td850;
3) Vertical extension of humid levels
T700–Td700;
4) Convergence and divergence of flow in
the volume involved (wind at 500 hPa);
5) Relative vorticity.
It measures the atmosphere potential Showers can occur for Sh ⬍ 3°C, A thick layer of condensed humidity has to
instability in the level between 850 hPa storms with Sh ⬍ 1°C, violent storms be present, in order to go up to 850 hPa.
and 500 hPa. for Sh ⬍ ⫺2°C, exceptional event
It is calculated as the difference between (tornado) for Sh ⬍ ⫺5°C.
Showalter the temperature at 500 hPa and the
temperature of a particle following a humid
adiabatic line from the lower level of clouds,
provided that they start from a quote
higher than 850 hPa.
It gives a measure of potential instability Showers can occur for LI ⬍ 4°C, It should be used with reference to
of the atmosphere in the level between LI must be negative in order for deep radiosonde from which it is derived.
surface and 850 hPa isobar. convection to occur;
It is calculated as the difference between violent storms for LI ⬍ ⫺2°C.
Lifted index (LI) the ambient temperature at 500 hPa and Since the driving force role played by
the air portion temperature having a the Piemonte orography for atmospheric
mixing ratio mediate in the 100hPa instability, a threshold significative for
closest to the surface rised up along a dry regional territory is LI ⬍ ⫺2°C.
Meteorological Phenomena
adiabatic line at 500 hPa pressure.

55
56
It is calculated as the difference between Storms can occur for values higher than
the sum of temperatures at 850 hPa 40–45°C,
Total-totals (atmospheric and dew temperatures) and violent storms can occur for values higher
twice the temperature at 500 hPa. than 45–50°C.
High values of humidity in the medium and Higher than 65%.

Mean humidity value higher layers of the atmosphere can help
between 500 hPa and 850 hPa or amplify storm genesis.
It measure the available energy between Deep convection occurs for values It is better to interpret the CAPE values
free convection level and equilibrium level. between 1’000 J/kg and 3’000 J/kg. with reference to radiosonde from which it
The indicative maximum value of velocity Values higher than 1’000 J/kg indicate is derived.
of rising flow can be estimated from CAPE. unstable atmosphere. It has to be interpreted with CIN (convective
CAPE inhibition) index, that measures the energy
The Assessment of Hazard and Risk
(Convective Available between the surface and the free convection

Potential Energy) level.
When CAPE values are mostly concentrated
in the upper part of the unstable area, higher
upwards acceleration of particles occurs.
It is an empirical index of stability and it Violent storms can occur for values As far as other indexes are concerned,
evaluates the presence of meteorological between 250 and 300, if a strong lifting SWEAT index has proved the best for the
SWEAT conditions suitable for tornado genesis. is present. identification of violent phenomena
When the index is equal to 400, or higher, occurence.
the probability that a tornado occurs is
very high.
TABLE 2.1.2 ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INDICES DURING 17–18 MAY 2004. (red values are critical)
Time Blitz Whiting index Lifted index CAPE Sweat index
17/08/2004, 06 UTC 20 32 1 123 98

17/08/2004, 12 UTC 7 29 1 8 148
17/08/2004, 18 UTC 203 35 0 147 210
18/08/2004, 00 UTC 121 31 −2 471 230
temperature on the lower layers is lower than the dew point. The following
conditions contribute to the development of radiation fog:
1) clear skies and the presence of clouds only at higher altitudes (oth-
erwise, the high reflectivity of the clouds would reduce the radiative
emmission of the earth’s surface);
2) high relative humidity (higher than 80%) in the lower levels (1000,
925, and 850 hPa);
3) stable stratification with frequent presence of thermal inversions above
the superficial layer;
4) calm or weak winds (1–5 m/s) in the lower levels because the turbulence
that impedes the formation of fog develops with steadier winds. To
verify the presence of light winds it is also useful to see the surface
pressure trends over Piemonte: there must be uniform conditions or a
variation of not more than 2 hPa.
Such fogs may sometimes be widespread, even to the point of involving
all the Po River Valley and lasting for several days.
A second type of fog, comparable to frontal or post-frontal fog, occurs
following the passage of a front, normally a warm front, with these
conditions:
1) clearing during the evening or night-time following one or more days
with precipitation or sometimes also with only the presence of low
clouds caused by high humidity in the lower layers, with a clear sky
that favours night-time radiation and a consequential condensation of
water vapour;
2) increase in pressure values and freezing level with a consequential situ-
ation of atmospheric stability that potentially favours the development
of thermal inversions;
3) lack of wind in the lower layers of the atmosphere; in fact also a
moderate wind strongly induce the dissipation of the fog;
4) the presence of descending winds in the upper levels that determine a
heating of the mid-high layers of the atmosphere, causing conditions
favourable to stability and thermal inversions.
Post-frontal fogs are normally in banks in that the clearing can occur
irregularly; they are thick in limited areas, but not very widespread or
long-lasting.
The most favourable period for fogs and mists in the flatlands is
between October and February, the months during which night-time cool-
ing lasts longer. However, they may occur during other months as well,
especially frontal and post-frontal fogs.
In the valley bottoms where radiative cooling is more common due to
the presence of the surrounding mountains, temperature inversions and
fogs may occur even during other months of the year. Fogs can also occur
on the slopes when air is forced to rise along reliefs under stable conditions
than cools adiabatically, causing the condensation of water vapour, while
low, layered clouds form over the piedmont bench zone.
Situations of anomalous temperatures, either heat waves or intense
cold spells, are another meteorological phenomenon that may result in situ-
ations of criticality. An anomalous heat wave creates problems in public
health with an increase in mortality and morbidity, often contemporan-
eously with agricultural impacts related to drought and water supplies for
cultivations.
A significant example for all of these aspects is that of the sum-
mer of 2003, during which northern Italy was subjected to extraordinary
meteorological conditions with long periods characterised by high tem-
peratures and humidity with values well above seasonal averages during
both daytime and night-time.
The dominant meteorological configuration also witnessed the influ-
ence of the North African anticyclone that, due to its considerable range
in both longitude and latitude, remained somewhat stationary. The max-
imum range was reached during the first ten-days of August when the
influence of the anticyclone originating out of Africa extended into the
entire central-western Mediterranean, western and central Europe, from
Italy to the limits of the Arctic Polar Circle, and finally over a good part of
south-eastern Europe (Figure 2.1.9). The consequential positive anomaly,

500 hPa over Europe (August
11th, 2003).
of about 3–4◦ C in the average temperature at 850 hPa, was observed over
all the Mediterranean and Europe.
During this ten-day period, extreme temperature values were reached
in the city of Torino, in the region of Piemonte, and in various Italian and
European localities. In the table (Figure 2.1.10) average, minimum, and
maximum recorded temperatures recorded by the Torino Buon Pastore
meteorological station during the months of June, July, and August can be
observed.
June 2003 Climatology
Tmin 20.4°C 16.4°C 4.0°C
Tmean 26.0°C 21.1°C 4.9°C
Tmax 32.0°C 25.8°C 6.2°C
July 2003 Climatology
Tmin 20.9°C 19.0°C 1.9°C
Tmean 26.4°C 23.9°C 2.5°C
Figure 2.1.10 Temperature Tmax 32.2°C 28.8°C 3.4°C
data measured in the city of
August 2003 Climatology
Torino: monthly averages of
Tmin 21.1°C 18.2°C 2.9°C
the 2003 summer, and
Tmean 27.4°C 22.8°C 4.6°C
anomalies from the reference
Tmax 34.4°C 27.8°C 6.4°C
climatology.
In the graph in Figure 2.1.11 we find the maximum and minimum

daily temperature values measured during the period between May 1st
and September 30th, 2003.
Air Temperature (May 01 2003 – September 30 2003)

45 113
40 Max 104
35 Min 95
30 86
T [°C]
T [°F]
25 77
20 68
15 59
10 50
Figure 2.1.11 Maximum and
minimum daily temperatures 5 41
recorded during the period 0 32
05/01
05/06
05/11
05/18
05/21
05/26
05/31
06/05
06/10
06/15
06/20
06/25
06/30
07/05
07/10
07/15
07/20
07/25
07/30
08/04
08/09
08/14
08/19
08/24
08/29
09/03
09/08
09/13
09/18
09/23
09/28
between May 1st, 2003 and

September 30th, 2003 in the
Torino Buon Pastore station. Days
In Piedmontese territory, the freezing level remained around 4000

metres for the entire period in question; this fact determined the presence
of higher temperatures not only in the lowlands, but also in mountain
localities. The presence of humidity was instead more significant during
the month of June when frequent flows from southern quadrants brought
humid air from the Mediterranean, causing high humidity together with
high temperatures. Over this period there were increases in afternoon and
evening convective clouds caused by strong daytime heating and some-
times accompanied by brief showers; the development of clouds increased
the relative humidity, even during the night-time and contributed to the
duration of the situation with considerable physical discomfort, especially
in the urban area of the city of Turin.
Epidemiological studies indicate that these conditions cause physio-
logical discomfort among the population: the subjects most at risk are
persons suffering from cardio-respiratory diseases and elderly people who
have debilitated thermoregulatory capacities. Under these meteorological
conditions, the risk of being stricken with heat cramps, dehydration, and
heat strokes increases over the entire sample of the population with a
consequential increase in morbidity and mortality rates.
During the month of June, two periods stand out as being characterised
by conditions critical for health: from June 10th to June 14th and during
the week between the 20th and the 27th. During the month of July the tem-
perature and relative humidity values remained critical, but with values
near the average for the period. The values measured during the month of
August departed notably from the climatic values and caused a spike in
the mortality rate: for many consecutive days during the period between
August 4th and 14th, for many consecutive days, maximum temperatures
were measured around 38◦ C with a peak of 40.5◦ C. The stormy precipita-
tions on August 15th temporarily cooled the air, but the following days of
the month were still characterised by high temperatures. September 2003
was still a hot month climatologically speaking, but no excesses in the
number of health events were recorded: subjects at risk who overcame the
critical conditions during the month of August also overcame the heat of
September with minor problems thanks to acclimatization.
In order to objectively evaluate and describe the physiological condi-
tions of well-being or discomfort in man as a consequence of the climatic
situation, synthetic bio-meteorological indices are used that combine tem-
perature, relative humidity of the air, and in some cases, wind speed: the
Apparent Temperature, the Humidex, and the Discomfort Index are some
of these indices; Figure 2.1.12 is a graphic representation of the maximum
daily values reached by the three indices during the summer of 2003. From
a quick comparison with the thresholds extracted from the bibliography,
we can observe that during the period in question the threshold values
for “extreme caution” were surpassed frequently, as was the “danger”
threshold during the days of high criticality.
In the urban area of Torino during the summer of 2003, about 600 more
deaths were recorded than expected. The excess death rate was due to the
conditions of extreme heat during the period and represents the highest
value every reached in Torino over the past 20 years. This anomaly is equal
to 33% of the population (+25% in the male population and +40% in the
female population). The increase in the mortality rate was recorded mainly
in the older population (>64 years old) and very elderly (>74 years old)
Apparent temperature – Discomfort Index - Humidex

(May 01 2003 – September 30 2003)
120 Apparent Temperature
50
Discomfort Index
110 Humidex
40
100
index [°F]
index [°F]
90
30
80
70
20
60
Figure 2.1.12 Summer 2003; 50 10

05/01
05/06
05/11
05/18
05/21
05/26
05/31
06/05
06/10
06/15
06/20
06/25
06/30
07/05
07/10
07/15
07/20
07/25
07/30
08/04
08/09
08/14
08/19
08/24
08/29
09/03
09/08
09/13
09/18
09/23
09/28
maximum daily
biometeorological indices
recorded during the period. Days
which respectively represent 96% and 86% of the total of the excess cases.
Explanations are to be sought in the reduced capacity of thermoregulation
and the preponderance of chronically ill that render the elderly population
more vulnerable. The mortality rate differed according to gender, striking
more women than men; this can be explained because the women are more
numerous and their average age is higher. The causes of death involved
mainly the circulatory, respiratory, nervous, and endocrine systems, as
well as psychic illnesses.
The graph in Figure 2.1.13 compares the number of deaths to the
conditions of extreme heat that were recorded during the summer of 2003
in the urban area of the city of Torino. The deaths due to the summertime
meteorological conditions were calculated as the difference between the
number of deaths recorded and the average number of deaths expected
Number of excess deaths and daily maximum temperatures

(Torino, May 01 2003 – September 30 2003)
80 50
Excess deaths
Figure 2.1.13 Summer 2003: 70 T max 40
daily maximum temperatures
60 30
and number of deaths. In this
figure it is possible to observe 50 20
N. excess deaths
the considerable number of 40 10

excess deaths recorded
T max [°C]
30
during the extremely hot
period between August 4th 20
and August 14th. The points 10
that fall along the 0 line
0
represent situations in which
the number of deaths ⫺10
observed is equal to the ⫺20
05/01
05/05
05/09
05/13
05/17
05/21
05/25
05/29
06/02
06/06
06/10
06/14
06/18
06/22
06/26
06/30
07/04
07/08
07/12
07/16
07/20
07/24
07/28
08/01
08/05
08/09
08/13
08/17
08/21
08/25
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/10
09/14
09/18
09/22
09/26
09/30
number of deaths expected

according to the regression
model. Days
Precipitation deficit
from January 01 2003 to August 31 2003

deficit (difference between
the observed value and the
climatological value) from
January 1st, 2003 to August
31st, 2003 with regards to the
climatological average of the
period between 1913–2002.
due to the same causes during the same period: the expected values were
calculated by means of a regression model that takes into account the long
and short term variations in the number of inhabitants.
The summer of 2003 was also the end of a period characterised by
extremely low rainfall: the most critical situation was verified in the north-
eastern sector of the region, in the provinces of Verbania, Novara, and
Vercelli, where the pluviometric deficit in comparison to the climatic
average resulted as being generally higher than 70% with peaks higher
than 90%. As described for the summer of 2003, all the first period of the
year was in fact characterised by meteorological conditions that limited
the duration and intensity of precipitation, causing a significant overall
deficit throughout the region, and in particular, in northern Piemonte.
For example, during the month of March 2003 (Figure 2.1.15 and
Figure 2.1.16) it can be seen how the presence of the anticyclonic ridge
extended over south-western Europe impeded the entry of the Atlantic
perturbations into the Mediterranean, thus inhibiting humidity and the
consequential precipitations. This was anomalous according to standard
climatology, which called instead for an Atlantic flow with cyclonic
components.
Periods of drought like the one of 2003 have called attention to how
conditions of scarce rainfall, even for periods of a few months, can influ-
ence the availability of overall water resources and therefore bring on a
Monthly mean geopotential height (dam)

at 500hPa – March 2003
Figure 2.1.15 500 hPa

geopotential height
average for the month of
March 2003.
Mean geopotential height (dam) at 500hPa – March
Figure 2.1.16 Climatological

average of the geopotential
height at 500 hPa relative to
the month of March 2003
over the years between
1979–1993 (ERA15,
ECMWF Project). Climatology from ERA15 (years 1979–1993)
critical situation for agricultural and productive activities. The association

with the hot summer period, in addition to direct consequences on health
and the mortality rate, caused a worsening of the air quality, an increase
in the insect population, which also adapted to higher altitudes, causing a
critical situation for the high mountain environment, as demonstrated by
the numerous rock falls and a consistent reduction in the glacial mass.
The social and economic significance of such impacts, together with
the recurrence of such events (even 2001 and in particular the autumn of
Figure 2.1.17 METEOSAT

satellite image in the visible
channel of the foehn
situation of February 13th,
2004 at 12 UTC.
the same year were characterised by drought with average annual precipi-
tation reduced to 46% of the 1913–2001 average and to 62% of the average
of the second semester) and the increase of the long-term forecast possi-
bilities triggered studies and pre-operative tests for the experimental use
of seasonal forecasts as an early warning of drought periods, also through
the use of specific indicators that today are part of the warning system.
In contrast, damage to agriculture may also be caused by an intense
cold spell, which is more serious if it is too soon or late in relation to the
expected climatology, because this (especially in the case of late frosts)
increases the seriousness of the effects on crops. Intense cold spells, with
extensive freezing on the roadways, also have repercussions on the road
and traffic conditions and, in turn, on public health.
The wind is another meteorological variable that may cause damage to
infrastructures, mid to large size trees, potentially causing interruptions
to the road and railway conditions and, last but not least, may also have an
impact on outdoor anthropic activities, including tourism, and in general
influence the psycho-physical conditions of man.
Strong wind in Piemonte is often associated with episodes of the foehn.
The foehn is a diving wind that descends from the mountains towards the
Alpine valleys and the adjacent lowlands. It is a hot and dry wind that
occurs when a mass of humid air moves against a mountainous relief and
manages to surpass it. The rising air, while climbing up the windward
slope, falls in temperature, favouring the condensation of the humidity in
such a way that the windward slope is subjected to extended clouds and
consistent precipitation. This phenomenon is known as stau.
As soon as the mass of air rises over the mountain, it bursts onto the
underlying valley, descending in altitude while its temperature rises (about
1◦ C every 100 m): in fact, the air mass is compressed by the increase in
atmospheric pressure and the ground temperature may rise as much as

10–20◦ C in just a few hours. At the same time, the air is now lacking
humidity, which has been discharged in the form of rainfall on the wind-
ward slope, making the sky limpid and clear on the downwind slope. When
the foehn reaches the bottom of the Alpine valleys or the lowlands, it may
surpass speeds of 100 km/h.
The orographic disposition of the Piedmontese valleys favours the
channelling of these flows; a wind from the W-NW touches upon the
western valleys (especially the Susa Valley, the Chisone Valley, and the
Valleys in the Canavese zone) while the flow from the N causes the foehn
in the Val d’Ossola and the Sesia Valleys. For the foehn to occur in the
lowlands, in addition to the conditions already mentioned, there must also
be a persistent phenomenon of strong down winds (for at least 10–12
hours).
A foehn is sometimes preceded by irregular layered clouds. This occurs
if the cold air manages to surpass the Alps, also generating downwind
instability.
The Alpine foehn occurs mostly during the winter and in the spring and
less frequently during the summer season. On the Ligurian-Piedmontese
Apennines there can be conditions for the Apennine foehn when the Ligur-
ian Sea has moderate or strong SW anticyclonic currents, although this
phenomenon is obviously less intense.
Concerning the effect of the foehn on the temperature in lowland
localities and valley bottoms, it must be emphasised that the tempera-
ture observed during this phenomenon depends mostly on the value of
the temperature associated with the air mass arriving at the mountainous
crests and the adiabatic heating that it undergoes.
For example, if an air mass arrives with isotherm at −5◦ C at about
3000 m, it can be hypothesized that at sea level the adiabatic compression
would result in a temperature of about 20–25◦ C. Clearly, in different
seasons the changing solar insulation implies variations around this value,
however we can affirm that if the day before there was not foehn, during the
winter there is definitely be an increase in the minimum and most likely an
increase in the maximum; during the summer it is instead possible to see a
drop in the maximum temperatures, especially if values of the maximum
temperature had been recorded at approximately 30◦ C the days before.
During the mid-seasons of spring and autumn, cases must be considered
one at a time in order to discriminate if the effect of the foehn is that
of rising or decreasing in the extreme temperatures. Therefore, because
the foehn occurs more frequently during the winter or at the beginning of
spring, it is known as the hot wind, but not always does it bring an increase
in temperature to the valley bottoms and lowlands.
Other episodes of strong wind, especially gusts, are associated with
thunder storm phenomena. In fact, the strong thermal currents present in
storm cells attract the masses of converging ground air near the thermal
current, which result in strong horizontal winds with gusts sometimes
over 150 km/h. The intensity of these winds is proportional to the speed
of the thermal current and depends on the maturity status of the storm. In
the case of very intense thermal currents with their own rotary motion,
whirlwinds may develop. A significant case occurred on August 29th,
2003, when a whirlwind developed over Palliate (NO), unroofing several
buildings. The development of a whirlwind is favoured by wind veering
with height, valued by SWEAT index. The SWEAT index calculated by
the radiosonde of Milano Linate shows a value of 507, which is very high
for the territory of Piemonte.
The last situation for criticality regarding public health caused by pre-
cise meteorological conditions is the persistence of structures that cause
stagnant air in the lower levels of the atmosphere with the accumulation of
pollutants and substances that are harmful for the population. This is linked
to conditions of long-lasting high pressure over the Italian peninsula, with
persistence in the stability of the atmosphere that maintains sparse ven-
tilation and impedes the exchange of air, preventing the advance of the
Atlantic depressions. The latter is the main system capable of bringing
a consistent remixing of the atmosphere over Piemonte with rainfall or
the triggering of consistent winds, the two main factors that favour the
dispersion of the pollutants present in the atmosphere. In order to support
the actions and policies to reduce air pollution, an Air Quality Index that
supplies an indication of the state of the air over the provincial territory
has been developed according to specifications for the Province of Torino.
The diagnostic algorithm of the AQI calls for the calculation of the relative
index for individual chemical parameters monitored in the area of Torino.
The Arpa Piemonte Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area
have developed products capable of supplying the forecast of meteoro-
logical phenomena that favour and govern the accumulation mechanism
according to data, knowledge and methodologies deriving from the mete-
orological disciplines. One of the applications of these methodologies has
allowed the association of an estimated forecast of the AQI. Forecasting of
the tendency of the dispersive conditions during the winter is calculated
by means of a decision tree that provides the stability conditions of the
PBL (planetary boundary layer) with respect to the pollutant accumulation
mechanisms, beginning with vertical temperature profiles and meteoro-
logical fields of rainfall and wind forecasted by the LAMI meteorological
model (Limited Area Model Italy), respectively on a point station and an
area that are both representative of the province of Torino.
Due to the fact that the phenomenon that most greatly influences the
air quality during the summertime is photo-chemical smog, the summer
algorithm corrects the maximum concentration of ozone forecasted by the
neural network model (RENOIR II) at the point station of the Torino urban
area with fields of cloudiness, precipitation, and wind forecasted over the
entire province by the LAMI model.
Since the summer of 2002, a neural network statistical model has been
operative for two-day forecasts of the maximum daily concentration of
Daily maximum values of ozone concentration

in the province of Asti
400
observed forecasted +48
350
forecasted +24 forecasted +72
300
250
200
150
Figure 2.1.18 Temporal
series of daily maximum 100
values of concentration of
50
ozone forecasted and
observed in the province of 0
Asti during the summer of
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
06
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2004 (June 1st–September
6/
6/
6/
7/
7/
7/
8/
8/
8/
9/
9/
9/
0/
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/0
/1
07
17
27
07
17
27
08
18
28
05
15
25
05
30th).
ozone at a point station that is representative of the Torino urban area. The
reason a neural network model is used is that these networks are extremely
adaptive structures equipped to find the solution to problems according to
noted examples; the model, in fact, operates for a certain period of time
in parallel with the real system it is designed to emulate and modifies its
structure while minimising the margin of error between reality and the
model itself. Neural networks therefore exploit the multidimensionality
of the information (like air quality and meteorology) without requiring
models that preventively interpret cause-effect relationships.
The RENOIR II model, used daily from May to September, consists of
two neural networks. The first is RENOIR 24, which supplies the forecasts
of the maximum concentration of ozone for the day of emission and has
input data of the maximum value of ozone concentration and humidity
observed the day before and the maximum temperature forecasted and
humidity elaborated by the Kalman filter on a point station of the Torino
urban area (these are the parameters that most strongly influence the photo-
chemical dynamics that produce ozone). Instead, the RENOIR 48 network
has an input of the maximum values of ozone concentration observed the
day before the day of emission and the one provided by the RENOIR 24
network with the maximum temperature forecasted for the day after the
emission of Kalman, providing the maximum ozone concentration for the
day after the day of emission. This information also constitutes an input
to the model for the forecasting of heat waves.
Following the need to monitor and forecast the state of air quality over
the entire Piedmontese territory, the AQI forecast methodology, which
was originally developed for the province of Torino, has been extended
to the regional specificity. To this view, around each provincial capital in
Piemonte, some areas have been identified as the most homogeneous and
significant possible from a point of view of relative risks for pollution

episodes (for this reason Alpine zones were not considered); on each of
these areas the algorithm for the tendency of PBL dispersive conditions
was exported and adapted in order to have a mosaic coverage of the entire
region.
2.1.3 THE METEOROLOGICAL CONFIGURATION AT THE

BASE OF CRITICALITY
Here is a detailed analysis of the meteorological configuration that

most frequently sets off the critical situations described in the previous
paragraphs.
A fundamental starting point for the analysis and forecasting of crit-
ical meteorological situations is the comprehension of the predominant
large scale structure in order to eventually identify the phenomena on
a local scale in consideration of data and information with an increas-
ing space-time detail. Climatological data and forecasting experience
allow the outlining of the synoptic characteristics of the meteorological
configuration that directly or indirectly influence the territorial region.
2.1.3.1 Precipitations
The meteorological situations that are potentially dangerous from the point
of view of intense and persistent precipitation in Piemonte, associated
with a widespread and organized area of low pressure, can be subdivided
into classes. In the first place, it is necessary to consider the large scale
(synoptic) situation and then the mid-scale one.
Hazardous situations on a synoptic scale

A) The presence of a blocking meteorological situation with a low pres-
sure area or a deep trough localised over central and southwestern
Europe (usually over the Gulf of Biscay, over France, on the Iberian
Peninsula, or the Balearic Islands) moving slowly eastward and a
strong blocking anticyclonic ridge over the Balkans or eastern Europe
(Figure 2.1.19). These situations cause a strong flow of warm, humid
air from S-SW Mediterranean over northwestern Italy.
B) A persistence of at least two days of a anticyclonic ridge of African
origins over the Mediterranean with a S or SW flow that causes a strong
accumulation of humidity in the various layers of the atmosphere due
to stable conditions with a subsequent arrival of a cold front (Figures
2.1.20 and 2.1.21).
In correspondence to large scale situations, the localization of the
minimal low pressure must be verified at lower levels.
Figure 2.1.19 Situation A, the

deep trough of the October
2000 flood in Piemonte seen
from the geopotential height
at 500 hPa at 12 UTC on
October 13th, 2000.
Figure 2.1.20 Situation B,

first phase, North African
anticyclone extended over
the central-eastern
Mediterranean on July 7th,
2004 at 00 UTC; in the figure
the temperature at 700 hPa is
represented.
A significant example of A is the flood of October 2000 in Piemonte.

The phenomenon was caused by a deep Atlantic trough, initially localized
over the British Isles, that progressively sank S of France and the Iberian
Peninsula (Figure 2.1.22). The formation of a marked anticyclonic ridge
blocked the depression at the level of the Balearic Islands, causing a
prolonged phase of intense precipitation over northwestern Italy.
The Atlantic trough, associated with a low pressure circulation centred
over the British Isles, recalled the high level cold air from the higher lati-
tudes towards the western Mediterranean, where it promoted the formation
of secondary minimums of surface pressure.
Figure 2.1.21 Situation B,

second phase, passage
of a cold front that causes
the weakening of the North
African anticyclone at 00
UTC on July 9th, 2004. The
variable is always the
temperature at 700 hPa.
Figure 2.1.22 Evolution of the geopotential height, at 500 hPa, of the deep trough of the October 2000 flood
in Piemonte between 12 UTC on October 12th, 2000 and 12 UTC on October 15th, 2000.
The block determined by the presence of the anticyclonic ridge over

the Balkans caused the persistence of the low pressure structure and a
longitudinal contraction of the trough with an increase in the pressure
gradient and intensification of the SW flow over Piemonte. The intense
southern currents transported humid and unstable air.
At the same time, the rotation of the flow from E-SE in the lower layers
also brought humid air from the Adriatic Sea towards the western confines
of the Po River Valley with a mass convergence zone over Piemonte that
favoured convection. The winds that interacted with the mountain range
caused a rising of the humid air mass with a consequential intensification
of the rainfall due to the orographic effect.
The surface temperature of the sea was relatively high for that season of
the year, contributing to the humidity in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
A critical factor during the event was the high freezing level, which was
around 3000 m altitude, due to which the precipitation was also of a rainy
nature even in the mountains, with a consequential immediate contribution
of liquid precipitation in the mountainous sections of the catchment basins.
A meteorological configuration similar to a B type situation took place
towards the end of the first ten days of July 2004. For more than three
days, from July 4th to 8th, 2004, an anticyclonic ridge of African origin
remained active over the central-east Mediterranean, causing the flow of
humid air from SW Piemonte under meteorologically stable conditions,
constituting a blocking structure for the advance of low pressure Atlantic
circulation (Figure 2.1.20).
The breakdown of the high pressure area of the African matrix began
during the late afternoon of July 8th; a cold airshed of about 3–4◦ C in
12 hours at 700 hPa (Figure 2.1.21), sufficient to cause unstable condi-
tions in an atmosphere with very high humidity, caused the development
of intense and stormy precipitation over Verbano and in the Sesia Valley,
with a surpassing of the rainfall risk threshold and consequential criticality
in the territory.
Hazardous situations on a mesoscale

Among the configurations described previously on a synoptic scale,
some mesoscale characteristics that make the intense precipitation in the
regional territory even more severe are obvious.
A) The presence of low pressure minimums downwind of theAlps over the
Piedmontese Plain or the Ligurian Gulf, formed due to the interaction
of a depression with the Alpine range. A minimum over the Ligurian
Gulf causes an unfavourable situation mainly for lower Piemonte; if
instead the minimum were located over the Piedmontese Plain, all of
the region, especially the reliefs, would be involved (Figure 2.1.23).
B) The presence of a trough between France and northern Italy with
flows from the SW and the contemporary formation of a secondary
minimum on the surface in the vicinity of the Gulf of Leone causes
Figure 2.1.23 Final stage of

the sea level pressure
configuration in situations A
and C.
Figure 2.1.24 Configuration

of the sea level pressure in
situation B.
intense precipitation above all in northern Piemonte (Ossola, Valsesia,

Verbano, and the Canavese area) (Figure 2.1.24).
C) The presence of depressions that form downwind of the Pyrenees or the
Cordillera Cantabrica and then head from the Balearic Islands towards
Liguria (an unfavourable situation for lower Piemonte) or towards the
western Alpine range (remaining however always W of Piemonte). In
the latter case, a minimum between the French Riviera and Provence
channels a strong flow from E-SE over western Piemonte with the
development of intense rainfall emphasised by the orographic ascent
of the flow (Figure 2.1.23).
Frontal and pre-frontal thunderstorms are triggered by structures simi-

lar to the previous ones, but characterised by a reduced space-time scale.
Among these we must add the case in which there is a contemporary air-
shed of destabilizing cold air from E or NE in the lower layers (eventually
associated with a trough over eastern Europe) and humid air from W or
SW in the upper layers.
Particular attention should be paid to all situations in which there are
two or more days of humid air flow from the S or SW transported by
an anticyclonic ridge of African origins and in general when there is a
pre-existing situation characterised by a strong presence of humidity (for
example, conveyed by a depression that brings in clouds but not rain-
fall over Piemonte). In fact, a subsequent airshed of cold air, however
modest, or the development of a highly unstable configuration (with poten-
tial temperatures decreasing with altitude and high Whiting and CAPE
indices values) is sufficient to cause the development of very intense local
thunderstorms.
An example of intense thunderstorm precipitation is that which took
place from July 14th to 16th in 2001, when rainfall of a mostly stormy
nature and high intensity involved the northern sector of Piemonte, asso-
ciated with an outbreak of cold air from the NW (Figure 2.1.25). The
Figure 2.1.25 Evolution of the temperature at 700 hPa between 12 UTC on July 13th, 2001 and 12 UTC on
July 16th, 2001.
masses of cold air from the British Isles quickly became very unstable
due to the high content of pre-existing humidity and heat in the lower
layers. The rainfall that followed the phase of instability involved mostly
the northern sectors of the region intermittently over the course of 48
hours: on Saturday the 14th, the first thunderstorms began over the west-
ern part and then shifted northwards with high local values, especially
in the area of Biella. Throughout Sunday the 15th, there was an out-
break of increasingly unstable cold air from the W, causing a more intense
convective phase with intense rainfall over the northern sector and very
intense over the areas of Biella and Verbano (Figure 2.1.26 and 2.1.27).
During the late evening, with the shifting of rainfall phenomena towards

between 12 and 15 UTC on
July 15th, 2001, during the
highest intensity of rainfall.
Lightning recorded on July 15, 2001
Figure 2.1.27 Lightning

recorded on July 15th, 2001.
the NE, the prevalently stormy phase stopped over Piemonte, leaving a
residue instability that resulted in some weaker, scattered precipitation on
Monday 16th.
2.1.3.2 Snowfall
Low level snowfall begins during the winter over the territory of Piemonte
in cases in which there is a layer of cold air over the plains, often isothermal
for the first 1000–1500 metres, into which a humid flow from S-SW enters
in the upper layers, frequently associated with a warm front. The warmer
and more humid air, which either arrives from the Atlantic or is humidified
due to its transit over the Mediterranean, rises over the cold air and forms
altostratus or nimbostratus clouds that bring precipitation. The layer of
cold air in the lower layers may be pre-existent and may later be weakened
by the hot-humid airshed, or it may be continually fed by currents of
low-level, cold air from the E-NE; in this case the snowfall will be more
persistent.
The event taken as an example is the snowfall on the regional plains
that occurred on the days of February 18th–22nd, 2004, during which we
can observe the succession of mechanisms of the layer of colder air that
created and fuelled the snowfall.
February 18th, 2004 is the most appropriate starting point in order to
understand the dynamics of the event: on that day a trough located over
northeastern Europe extended towards the SW, meeting with a pre-existing
depression over France and resulting in a notable drop in upper level
temperatures, cloudiness, and light precipitation. A drop in the freezing
level, which remained at about 1000 m – or at the value that had already
been recorded the day before – had not yet occurred.
On February 19th, a closed circulation of low pressure was isolated
over France and moved backwards towards the W during the day, while
a low took hold in the lower layers over the French Riviera, inducing a
circulation from the E that contemporarily conveyed cold, humid air over
the territory of Piemonte (Figure 2.1.28).
Consequently, the sky was overcast over the entire region, the freez-
ing level fell to 400–500 m, there was a strong drop in the temperature,
especially in the maximum values, and light to moderate snowy precipi-
tation occurred even in the lowlands. The precipitation of February 19th
(Figure 2.1.29) involved mostly the northern sector of the region in that
the wind in the upper levels continued from the S-SE and the orographic
interaction of the humid air masses with the northern Alps favoured the
condensation.
On February 20th, the circulation of the area of low pressure in the
upper levels remained substantially stationary over the Bay of Biscay.
The strong variation in the wind direction at high and low levels contin-
ued: from S at the upper levels and from the E-NE in the upper layers.
Yet another day of overcast skies, freezing level at around 500 m, low
Figure 2.1.28 Geopotential height at 500 hPa and sea level pressure.

on February 19th, 2004.
temperatures (average of the highs around 2◦ C), diffused precipitations,

also snowy at levels near the plains areas, even if with less intensity due
to the westward movement of the low.
The next day, the upper layer situation did not change notably in com-
parison with the previous day; however the continued humid airshed from
the southern quadrants caused an increase in humidity, especially at higher
levels. At sea level, the low moved from the Strait of Gibraltar towards
the NE, causing a drop in pressure also over Piemonte, together with a
strong convergence near the Alpine range. The configuration of the wind
at various levels over Piemonte remained essentially unchanged. During
the evening, however, the intensity of the wind from eastern quadrants
decreased causing an increase in the freezing level from 500 to 1,000 m
(Figure 2.1.30).
The precipitation was intense (Figure 2.1.31), reaching the highest
values of all the event, with maximums concentrated over the south-
westernAlps and accumulating up to 50 cm of snow in the lowlands around
Cuneo. On this day, the snowfall was more abundant on Torino as well
Figure 2.1.30 Wind on February 21st, 2004 every 6 hours at 925 hPa.

on February 21st, 2004.
(approximately 20 cm). During the night time, the depression gradually

moved further westward and the episode ended.
The low level snowfalls that occurred in this example were caused by
the westward retrograde movement of a trough that came from eastern
Europe; during the first phase the effect resulted mainly in the creation of
a buffer of cold air in the lower layers caused by a wind from the E. Later,
when a depression formed over western Europe, the flow in the upper
levels blew from the southern quadrants, bringing humid air with a conse-
quential intensification of the precipitation, which remained snowy even
at lower altitudes until the flow from the E to the lower levels maintained
a significant intensity. The snow level maintained its near-ground values
until the flow from the S caused a notable increase in the temperature
values in the lower layers.
In other events characterised by snow in the plains, the creation of the
cold air layer in levels near the ground is caused by the expansion of the
Russian thermal high towards central Europe and the precipitation caused
by the subsequent arrival of an Atlantic depression. However, over recent
years the expansion of the Russian thermal high has been somewhat rare.
2.1.3.3 Fog
From a large scale meteorological point of view, the typical condition
for the formation of fog in Piemonte consists of the presence of weak
anticyclonic currents from the SW in the lower layers with an airshed
of humid air. Usually this occurs when an anticyclonic structure exists
between central-northern Africa and central-eastern Europe.
The formation of fog can also occur with a weak anticyclonic flow
from the NW in the upper layers (over 700 hPa) and currents from the
W-SW in the lower layers with a deviation of the flow caused by the
Alpine orography. In this case the weak flow descending from the NW
contributes to stabilizing the atmosphere.
The second situation is frequent when an anticyclonic structure is
located between northwestern Africa and France.
The persistence of foggy phenomena can also occur with almost no
circulation at higher altitudes when there are maximum values for an
anticyclone or if the axis of a ridge is localized over Italy.
As an example of the meteorological configuration that determines
persistent fog phenomena, we will take into consideration an event during
which the two most frequent types of fog in Piemonte occurred during the
period between November 17th–20th, 2003.
On November 16th, 2003, the day before the beginning of the event, the
weather was characterised by overcast sky conditions, diffuse precipitation
with high local values over the Ligurian-Piedmontese Apennines later in
the day, and a gradual increase in the freezing level from 1,700 to 2,500 m.
On November 17th, the trough responsible for the precipitation
described arrived over the Balkan Peninsula, the anticyclone of the Azores
expanded towards central Europe, joining with a pre-existing area of high
pressure over the eastern Mediterranean (Figure 2.1.32). The rotation
from SW to NW of the winds in the upper levels and the increase in
pressure caused a noticeable improvement of the weather with clear skies
or sparse clouds during the morning. In the higher levels there was a
decrease in humidity, an increase in temperature, and the rotation of the
wind from N-NW.
Until the morning of November 17th, the visibility sensors of the Arpa
Piemonte network noted fog and mist conditions over the lowland areas
while denser fogs occurred in the southern sector. The table below presents
the values recorded by the visibility sensors during a moment in which
there was a more intense and extensive reduction, while excellent visibility
was recorded in the mountain stations.
During this first phase of the event, the fog was characterised mainly
as post-frontal fog. Post-frontal fogs are normally in banks in that the
clearing can occur irregularly; they are thick in limited areas, but not very
widespread or long-lasting.
At around 12 UTC, the visibility was once again more than 2 km over
the entire region, and remained so until 19 UTC when the fog formed
again. On November 18th, the anticyclone consolidated over central-
western Europe; on this day the visibility remained under one kilometre
until about 09 UTC over almost all the lowland areas; at about 20 UTC the
fog began forming again. In Alessandria the fog was present for almost the
entire day. In the Cuneo Levaldigi radiosonde of 00 UTC on November
18th, we can note a thermal inversion and high presence of humidity in
the lower layers, which is typical of fog events (Figure 2.1.33).
Figure 2.1.32 Geopotential height at 500 hPa on November 17th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.33 Radiosonde of

Cuneo Levaldigi at 00 UTC
on November 18th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.34 METEOSAT

image of the visible channel
at 09 UTC on November
19th, 2003.
During the morning of November 19th, the area most greatly influ-
enced by the anticyclonic ridge was the Italian peninsula. It was
the day during which the fogs were more diffuse and persistent, as
shown in the following METEOSAT image in the visible channel of
09 UTC of November 19th (Figure 2.1.34). The extension of the fog
can be observed covering nearly all of the Po River Valley and a
good part of the Adriatic coast. The Arpa Piemonte visibility measure-
ment stations of Torino Caselle, Carmagnola, Govone (CN), Novara
Cameri, and Alessandria recorded fog that persisted for almost the
entire day.
On November 20th, the anticyclone subsided due to the action of an
Atlantic trough approaching central Europe; in the late morning the fog in
Piemonte had dissolved. Table 2.1.3 presents the duration of the fog. In the
second part of the fog event the reduction in visibility had characteristics
more typical of radiation fog.
TABLE 2.1.3 CONSECUTIVE FOGGY HOURS BETWEEN

NOVEMBER 18 AND NOVEMBER 20, 2003
Consecutive foggy hours

Station
between November 18th–20th 2003
Torino Caselle 33.0

Vercelli 19.5
Novara Cameri 40.5
Alessandria Lobbi 55.0
Carmagnola (TO) 41.5
Govone (CN) 17.5
Cuneo Levaldigi 21.0
TABLE 2.1.4 VISIBILITY MEASURED BY REGIONAL

MONITORING NETWORK
Visibility measured on
Station
November 17 2003 08:30 UTC
Novara Cameri (NO) 1.7 km
Carmagnola (TO) 0.1 km
Alessandria Lobbi (AL) 0.2 km
Vercelli (VC) 1.4 km
Govone (CN) 0.1 km
2.1.3.4 Anomalous temperatures

The positive anomalies in temperature are normally caused by the
expansion of an anticyclonic ridge of African origins towards central
Europe, bringing condition of humid heat and, if it persists for several
days, average temperature values above the seasonal average with extreme
values that can surpass any available historical data.
High maximum temperature values also occur during the winter
months together with episodes of foehn. Instead, negative temperature
anomalies that persist for several days are associated with the outbreak of
continental cold air from eastern Europe; low minimum temperature val-
ues also occur together with a clearing immediately after sunset following
a day characterised by overcast skies.
2.1.3.5 Strong wind

The typical foehn over Piemonte occurs when a trough from the Atlantic,
coming in from central-eastern France, crosses towards the mid-high Adri-
atic with formations of a surface low over the Gulf of Trieste, while
strong high level currents from the NW are present. The cold front
associated with the trough undergoes a deformation (frontolysis) when
it interacts with the Alpine range. Under such conditions, strong pres-
sure and thermal gradients between the Po River Valley and the north-
western Alps are generated, with the triggering of the foehn mostly over
the northern valleys.
Another situation of foehn, which is rare but not infrequent, occurs
when strong high currents from the W, caused by a strong pressure gradient
between northern and southern Europe. In this case the foehn phenomenon
is mostly over the western valleys of the region. Normally, there is a low
pressure present over western Europe quickly moving eastward and the
foehn establishes itself when the minimum is located over central-eastern
Europe.
The foehn taken as an example occurred from February 4th to 6th in
2003; this was a particularly intense and long-lasting event with a flow
rotation that caused a development of the foehn first over the western
valleys and then over the northern ones.
In order to examine this event, it is better to begin on February 3rd,

2003, when a depression with a minimum N of the British Isles extended
southward, directly involving Piemonte during the second half of the day.
The wind recorded in the Arpa Piemonte anemometric stations did not
yet present a particularly significant configuration, with the exception of
some intensification in the Alps.
The following day, the depression expanded further S and at the same
time shifted eastward; this brought on a rotation of the currents in the
upper atmosphere from W to NW. During the evening, a secondary low
formed over the upper Adriatic (Figure 2.1.35).
Figure 2.1.35 Geopotential height at 500 hPa between 18 UTC on February 4th, 2003 and 00 UTC
on February 5th, 2003.
The interaction of the depression with the Alpine range triggered two
important typical phenomena found in these cases and mentioned at the
beginning of this paragraph:
1) The cold front associated with the low pressure area underwent a defor-
mation and frontolysis visible in the map that illustrates the evolution
of the temperature, humidity, and wind at 700 hPa (Figure 2.1.36);
2) The analyses of the pressure at sea level indicated the shifting of the
low southeastward until it settled in the lower Adriatic during the
evening (Figure 2.1.37) and consequently established a strong pres-
sure gradient in the vicinity of the northwestern Piedmontese Alps with
lower pressure values in the Po Valley and higher values in Savoy and
Provence; this pressure configuration caused an increase in the flow
of the air masses from the Alps towards the Po River Valley with the
development of the foehn.
Beginning in the late morning of February 4th, the wind began to
intensify and the sky cleared, while clouds remained along the borderline
reliefs. In Figure 2.1.38, we can see how a consistent portion of the
Piedmontese plain was subjected to strong gusts of wind that caused an
average increase of 4◦ C in the temperatures (Figure 2.1.39).
On February 5th, the secondary low moved northeastward, from the
upper Adriatic towards the Czech Republic: however the pressure at sea
Figure 2.1.36 Temperature, relative humidity, and wind at 700 hPa on February 4th, 2003.
level denotes the persistence of the strong pressure gradient (about 10 hPa)
over the Alpine range. The analyses of temperature, humidity, and wind at
levels 500, 700, 850, and 925 hPa at 06 UTC on February 5th indicated a
strong thermal gradient at the lower levels of the Alpine range (about 6◦ C
at 925 hPa) and the presence of humidity over the Alpine reliefs above the
wind in France and Switzerland. On this day, the foehn continued with-
out interruption for the entire day, especially in the northern and western
mountain zones and piedmont bench (Figure 2.1.40); the relative humid-
ity dropped to very low levels (about 20–30%) essentially throughout the
region (Figure 2.1.41).
On February 6th, this widespread low tended to move eastwards, reach-
ing Russia during the evening; The currents tended come mostly from the
N. This eastward movement of the surface low brought on an attenua-
tion of the pressure gradient over the western Alps during the night. On
that day, the foehn continued, even if with less intensity than during the
two previous days, and involved mostly the central and eastern sectors of
Piemonte.
On February 7th, the depression began losing energy and vorticity; the
pressure gradient over northwestern Italy was much less evident and the
sea level pressure was much more levelled; the event had ended.
Figure 2.1.37. Sea level pressure on February 4th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.38 Wind on

February 4th, 2003 at
14 UTC.
Figure 2.1.39 Variation of

temperature between 14 UTC
on February 3rd, 2003 and 14
UTC on February 4th, 2003.
Figure 2.1.40 Wind on

February 5th, 2003 at
12 UTC.
2.1.3.6 Accumulation of pollutants

The accumulation of pollutants during the autumn and winter occurs in
meteorological situations characterised by the influence of the Azores or
African anticyclones over Piemonte for a prolonged period of time. The
resulting atmospheric stability emphasises the thermal inversion in the
lower layers, usually during the autumn and winter months, favouring
the stagnation of the polluting substances in urban areas. These periods
are also characterised by the absence of the foehn with winds that reach
Figure 2.1.41 Relative

humidity on February 5th,
2003 at 12 UTC.
the surface of the plains and by the total lack or insignificant amount of
precipitation.
In reality, some foehn situations may favour the formation of thermal
inversions in the plains, which then impedes the vertical mixing of air,
especially in the cases in which the wind does not reach the surface,
but blows above a layer of pre-existing air. A relevant case was that of
January 31st, 2000. During the previous days, a weak low pressure wave
from the Atlantic involved northwestern Italy, favouring the formation of a
consistent thermal and barometric gradient behind the PiedmonteseAlpine
arc. The contemporary expansion of the Azores anticyclone towards the
western Mediterranean set the stage for a flow of northwestern currents
over Piemonte, contributing to mostly stable conditions.
Beginning during the evening of January 29th (Figure 2.1.42), foehn
conditions were triggered along Alpine reliefs and extended over most of
the valleys and western and northwestern valley bottoms of the region
during the next day, with a consequent rise in the temperature over the
Alpine zones subjected to the fall winds (Figure 2.1.43).
Over the plains, the fall winds were not able to drive out pre-existing
cold air and therefore slid over it, causing a compression and compaction
towards the surface. The prevalent effects of this situation, which are eas-
ily recognisable in the literature of vertical temperature profiles recorded
by radiosonde, are represented by the thick fogs and highly stable con-
ditions of the Planetary Boundary Layer, which particularly facilitate
the accumulation of pollutants (Figure 2.1.44). Although the presence of

500 hPa on January 29th,
2000 at 18 UTC.
Figure 2.1.43 Evolution of

the temperature at 2 m
between 06 UTC on January
29th, 2000 and 06 UTC on
January 30th, 2000.
fall winds slackened during the afternoon of January 31st, stable condi-
tions remained throughout February 1st with the surface inversion and the
formation of dense fogs over the plains.
During the day of February 2nd, due to the consistent worsening of
conditions due to the Atlantic trough approaching the Alpine arc, there
was a significant change in the atmospheric stability.
Figure 2.1.44 Surface

temperature measured on
January 31st, 2000 at 06
UTC where the difference in
temperature between
lowlands and mountainous
lands can be recorded.
2.1.4 THE REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF PIEMONTE IN

THE MODIFICATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
DRIVING FORCES
The Piedmontese territory is part of a complex region from an orographic

point of view, with ample flat lands surrounded by the high and extensive
relief of the Alps to the N and to the W, by a Apennine chain very close
to the sea to the S, while to the E it stretches out towards the plains
of Lombardia and Emilia. It includes Alpine regions that are subject to
episodes of intense precipitation, both localised and widespread, with high
vulnerability of the territory due to the complex hydrographic network
and the high population density of the valley bottoms; Apennine regions,
which are the first to feel the influence of Atlantic perturbations and where
the contrast between the hot-humid southwestern air mass and the cold NE
intrusions often intensify the phenomena, consequently localising them
with a strong impact on slope stability; and finally the plains with where
intense convective systems transit and whose surface humidity are capable
of fuelling precipitation systems.
The entire region is subjected to the influence of the Mediterranean
Basin that, even though it mitigates the climate, constitutes a notable
reserve of energy and humidity that feeds the perturbations and favours the
development of intense precipitation systems – events that may produce
more than half the average annual rainfall in a few days and more than a
monthly average rainfall in one single hour.
Figure 2.1.45 Annual

average precipitation
1913–2002 (data from the
ex-Ufficio Idrografico e
Mareografico Nazionale).
Annual maximum hourly precipitation (1989–2004)

140
26/06/1994 123.20 mm
Capanne di Marcarolo
120
05/06/2002 98.8 mm
Camparient
100
80
mm
60
Figure 2.1.46 Annual
maximum hourly precipitation 40
recorded by the stations of
the regional 20
meteohydrographic network
during the period from 1989 0
to 2004. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Due to the territorial complexity of the region, the meteorological phe-

nomena result as being caused not only by the meteorological barometric
configuration on a synoptic scale and mesocale, but also from small scale
dynamics; the flows perpendicular to the orography with a rising of air
along the reliefs can result in an increase in the intensity of the rainfall,
especially in the situation where there is also convection, or may create
thermodynamic conditions of instability that result in precipitation.
An example in which a change, although minimal, of the flow direction
caused relatively significant variation in the distribution of the precipita-
tion in Piemonte is the precipitation recorded on October 14th, 2000,

accumulated in 96 hours from
12 UTC on October 12th,
2000 until 12 UTC on
October 16th, 2004.

accumulated in 24 hours from
00 UTC on October 15th,
2000 until 00 UTC on
October 16th, 2000.
which is part of the flooding of October 2000. Clearly this event was
caused mainly by a deep, widespread, and persistent low pressure circu-
lation from the Atlantic that was blocked in its eastward movement by
a blocking anticyclone over eastern Europe; however, an examination of
the low level winds helps in understanding the reasons why the intense
Figure 2.1.49 Evolution of the wind speed at 925 hPa every 6 hours from 06 UTC on October 14th, 2000
until 00 UTC on October 15th, 2000.

between 00 UTC and 12 UTC
on October 14th, 2000.
precipitation involved mostly certain areas of Piemonte. It can be noted

how the wind came mostly from the E during the morning, causing the
rain influence mostly the western sector of Piemonte (Figure 2.1.50) while
the rotation from NE with intensification that occurred during the second

between 12 UTC on October
14th, 2000 and 00 UTC on
October 15th, 2000.
part of the day contributed to the extension of the precipitation with higher
values, especially in the area of Cuneo (Figure 2.1.51).
The very highAlpine reliefs can cause very different upwind and down-
wind meteorological conditions: a cloudy situation with rainfall on the
French or Swiss Alps is sometimes limited to the crests of the border of
Piedmontese territory, while the rest of the region has sunny weather with
a chance of foehn.
In order to the foehn influence a particular valley, the geographic ori-
entation of the valley summit to the valley bottom must coincide as much
as possible with the direction from which the wind is coming. In this way,
if it is sufficiently intense and persistent, it will be effectively channelled
along the valley and reach the adjacent plains.
The situation taken as an example is the foehn episode of February
13th–14th, 2005; from Figure 2.1.52 it can be noted how at 12 UTC on
February 13th, a strong wind came from the W-NW and touched upon
all the Piedmontese valleys with a W-E orientation or, more specifically,
those in the Canavese and Val Pellice areas with run out over much of
the plains. This configuration of the wind was correctly forecasted by the
limited area, non-hydrostatic, LAMI numerical meteorological model; in
Figure 2.1.53 it is possible to visualise the wind forecast elaborated from
the running of the model at 00 UTC on February 13th for this particular
case, at levels 500, 700, 850, and 950 hPa.
Twenty-four hours later, at 12 UTC on February 14th, the wind
came from the N, so its highest intensity was near the northerly
reliefs whose orientation is N-S, and more specifically in the Ossola
Valley and over eastern Piemonte, while there was a considerable
mitigation over western reliefs; instead, the southern reliefs saw a
rising of the air masses with the formation of orographic clouds
(Figure 2.1.54).
Figure 2.1.52 Wind recorded

on Piedmontese territory at
12 UTC on February 13th,
2006.
Figure 2.1.53 Wind forecast at levels 500, 700 , 850, and 950 hPa elaborated by the LAMI meteorological
model for 12 UTC on February 13th, 2005.
Figure 2.1.54 Wind recorded

on Piedmontese territory at
12 UTC on February 14th,
2006.
Figure 2.1.55 Wind forecast at levels 500, 700, 850, and 950 hPa elaborated by the LAMI meteorological
model for 12 UTC on February 14th, 2005.
Figure 2.1.56 Analyses of the wind at isobaric levels of 500, 700, 850, and 925 hPa at 06 UTC
on September 16th, 2004.
Figure 2.1.55 presents the forecasting of the model for the same time:
the rotation of the wind from N was forecasted correctly. Instead, due to
the lower orographic altitudes and the modest steepness, especially of the
slopes facing the plains, there was a lesser influence of the Apennine
reliefs; therefore the situation in which a low develops over the Lig-
urian Gulf, with a consequential low circulation in the lower layers, as
highlighted in Figure 2.1.56, the precipitation that develops in Liguria
frequently tend to spread out over the lower Asti and Alessandria areas
(Figure 2.1.57).
2.1.5 THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATIC

CHANGE
The problem of climatic changes has become increasing urgent over recent
years due to the always more frequent recurrence of phenomena of a certain
significance like drought, heat waves, floods, or prolonged periods of
intense cold.

between 12 UTC and
September 15th, 2004 at 12
UTC on September 16th,
2004.
Beginning with these considerations, the scientific world has set out
in search of a confirmation of an eventual change in the current world
climate and the possible repercussions that it made lead to in the future.
As part of the studies on the global climatic change, strategic signifi-
cance has been assumed by the capacity to evaluate the regional impact
of different scenarios that are being outlined. Climatic variability on a
regional scale is an important theme in climate research but has not yet
been fully explored. Both elements of uncertainty and essential informa-
tion must take into consideration in order to make rational decisions as
well as for orienting the long-term programming and planning policies
and for understanding how the concept of risk as related to natural phe-
nomena can evolve. To this view, it is important to analyse the potential
effects of global climatic change in the characteristics and frequency of
critical meteorological configurations.
According to research policies established by the IPCC (Intergovern-
mental Panel on Climate Change), natural, technical and social sciences
can supply essential information for the decisions upon what constitutes
“the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatic system”. The
final 2001 IPPC summary report established that this danger varies from
region to region depending on the local nature and the consequences of
global climatic change on the climatic impact. In fact, there is no single
and best policy to follow, but it is important to consider the consistency of
the diverse policies with regards to the diverse possible world scenarios.
The synthesis in questions accentuates to what extent climatic changes can
depend on anthropogenic interference and, at the same time, to what extent
scientific research is indispensable for identifying an ongoing climatic

change and the defining of possible future scenarios.
The final report of the IPCC Task Force 1 (Observed and forecasted
climatic variations) points out how, over the past one hundred years
the boreal hemisphere demonstrates increased heating over any other
previous period. In particular, the last decade proved to be one of the
hottest of all times. This increase in temperature is due to, always accord-
ing to the IPCC, a climatic change on a planetary scale, the causes of
which should be sought in anthropogenic factors rather than in natu-
ral ones (Figure 2.1.58 a, b, c), due to a constant increase in human
activity.
Knowing the climate of a region or of a particular locality is the starting
point for a possible climatological forecast and consists of the knowledge
of prevailing weather patterns that can be expected in a given locality at a
particular period of the year. According to this, there must then be a good
statistical analysis of the weather and the past climate, which requires the
continuous measurement of certain physical variables.
These measures assume diverse forms. Considering, for example, the
air temperature, the most immediate among these forms is monitoring
through manual, mechanical, and automatic measures. The direct meas-
urement of the meteorological parameters are however available only from
the middle of the past century. For a valid reconstruction of the past cli-
mate, therefore, it is necessary to form temperature measurements derived
from natural processes like the analysis, for example, of the rings of tree
trunks (dendroclimatology), corals, and glaciers. These latest estimate
have an intrinsic variance higher than the direct measurements of the
meteorological variables.
Arpa Piemonte is active in this climate monitoring operation. In fact it
manages a complex regional climatological data bank. This archive con-
sists of manual and mechanical meteorological surveys derived from the
ex-National Hydrographic Service (Torino, Milano, Parma Section): 273
stations supplied pluviometric data at different times (during the period
between 1913–2002), 161 supplied thermometric data at different times
(during the period between 1951–2002) and 123 supplied both tempera-
ture and rainfall measurements at different times. The historical series of
data undergo a careful retrospective validation procedure so as to guar-
antee the consistency and coherence of the information. According to
these measurements, researchers can identify and calculate climatological
indices useful for an in-depth analysis of the climatic changes on a regional
level over the last eighty years. In particular, the European Interreg IIB
MEDOCC Projects – Sedemed I and Sedemed II provided for the study
and calculation of indicators that the international scientific community
believes more suitable for the characterisation of response of regional
hydrometeorological regimes to climatic variability or, in other words,
the Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI (McKee et al., 1993) and the
Palmer Drought Severity Index – PDSI (Palmer, 1965).
1.0
Measured
Forecasted
Temperature anomaly (°C)

0.5
0.0
⫺0.5
a
⫺1.0
1850 1900 1950 2000
Year
Measured
Forecasted
b
1850 1900 1950 2000
Anno
Measured
Forecasted
Figure 2.1.58 Comparison

between the variations in the
earth’s surface temperature
observed (gray) and
simulated (red), considering c
the natural effects a), the
anthropogenic effects b) and 1850 1900 1950 2000
both factors c). Year
The SPI index is used to evaluate the rainfall deficit according to a

series of pluviometric data in correspondence to different time periods
and various climatic regimes; it is therefore applicable to different geo-
graphic regions. It is based on a temporal scale that has average intervals
of 3, 6, 12, 24, or 48 months and allows the identification of a monthly

climatological trend. The index, which is calculated according to diverse
temporal scales, is commonly indicated as SPI3, SPI6, SPI12, SPI24, or
SPI48. The index is presented in standardized form, making it possible to
compare the trends in precipitation for different areas, independent of the
location of the measuring site. Due to its structure, the index memorises
past precipitations and provides for the monitoring of drought phenom-
ena. The range of values that the index may assume is included between
−2.00 and +2.00. Positive index values refer to a rainfall situation with
an entity higher than the median value of the pluviometric series, while
negative values refer to dryer cases with point rainfall values less than the
median value of the distribution at hand.
The PDSI index is based on an equation of hydrological balance
expressed as a function of temperature measurements, precipitation, and
average ground water content (AWC - available water content). In fact, for
a correct estimate of drought periods from an agricultural point of view, a
correct estimate of the supply, of the loss, and of the need for water for a
land area is indispensable. In order to calculate this index an estimate of
the following variables is necessary:
1) precipitation (supply);
2) evapotranspiration (consumptive use);
3) run off, or the amount of water that flows on the surface or underground
(loss);
4) loss and gain of soil moisture.
It is also necessary to have an estimate of potential values of the vari-

ables described above, or of the maximum values that they can assume.
This index constitutes a highly valid indication of the situation in agricul-
ture in that it evaluates the moisture content of the soil. The fundamental
difference between the two indices is the fact that the SPI considers only
precipitation, while the PDSI takes the entire hydrological balance into
account.
On a regional level, the results of the analysis of these indices call atten-
tion to alternating periods of drought and humidity and, especially in recent
years, they seem to manifest a tendency towards prolonged dry periods
with shorter return times than in the past (Figures 2.1.59 and 2.1.60).
This hypothesis is also supported by the analysis of distribution of the
duration of dry spells, where a dry day is intended as a day during which
the accumulated precipitation is less than 1 mm (Figure 2.1.61).
This trend constitutes a further verification of the IPCC affirmations,
but with a regional significance, further confirmed by the trend of the
temperatures calculated according to the historical series ofTorino (Figure
2.1.62).
The trend of the temperatures in the Piedmontese regional capital in
fact signals a positive trend in the temperatures, especially over the past
century, where anthropogenic activity has had a greater influence.
24 months SPI Sicilia

24 months SPI Emilia R.
24 months SPI Piemonte
SPI index
SPI index
SPI index
1955/11
1957/11
1961/11
1965/11
1969/11
1973/11
1977/11
1981/11
1985/11
1989/11
1993/11
1997/11
2000/11
Date
Figure 2.1.59 Comparison of the historic series of SPI at 24 months calculated for three different Italian
regions (Piemonte, Emilia Romagna, and Sicilia) for the period 1955–2000. The positive and negative
(drought) anomalous periods are highlighted in the index.
Figure 2.1.60 Application of

the monthly PDSI to the Arpa
PDSI
Piemonte climatological
database station for the
evaluation and analysis of
past droughts in relation to
climatological studies The red
area represents drought
periods. The use of the
Palmer index is highly valid in
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
agriculture in that it evaluates

the moisture content of the
soil. Year
1915–1939
1951–1975
1976–2000
pdf (d)
Figure 2.1.61 Distribution of

the duration of dry periods of
each decade beginning in 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1921 in Piemonte. d (days)
28
27
26
25
Temperature [°C]
24
23
Figure 2.1.62 Temporal 22

historic series of
temperatures measured in 21
the Piedmontese capital city
of Torino. The violet 20
highlights in this figure
19
represent the data from the
last one-hundred years, 18
which indicate a positive
53
63
73
83
93
03
13
23
33
43
53
63
73
83
93
03
13
23
33
43
53
63
73
83
93
03
trend.
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
To complete the regional meteo-climatic analysis scenario, it is

possible to correlate the indices described above with meteorological con-
figurations on a synoptic scale (approximately 10,000 km). The results of
these analyses demonstrate how the correlation between the local indices
and the meteorological figures on a larger scale can be used as a simplified
statistical model of forecasting particular types of extreme meteorological
events related to anomalous precipitation (Figures 2.1.63 and 2.1.64).
In order to study the impact of an eventual ongoing or forecasted cli-
matic change, it is however necessary not only to study the past and present
climate, but also the future one. For this purpose, complex numerical
models based on physical atmospheric laws and interactions with the
earth’s surface have undergone constant and rapid development over recent
12 month SPI and Nao index
spi EMR+PIE 12 m
NAO 12 AA
spi SICILY 12 m
1956/03
1957/07
1960/03
1961/07
1964/03
1965/07
1968/03
1969/07
1972/03
1973/07
1976/03
1977/07
1980/03
1981/07
1984/03
1985/07
1988/03
1989/07
1992/03
1993/07
1996/03
1997/07
1954/11
1958/11
1962/11
1966/11
1970/11
1974/11
1978/11
1982/11
1986/11
1990/11
1994/11
1998/11
Date
Figure 2.1.63 Inter-annual variability: Comparison between the historic SPI 12-month series calculated on
Piemonte, Emilia Romagna, and Sicilia and the running averages at 12 members of the NAO index. An
example of interaction between large scale atmospheric variability and the surface effect on a local level
(regional).
12 month SPI and EuBLK index
spi EMR+PIE 12 m
spi SICILY 12 m
EuBLK 12 AA
1956/03
1957/07
1960/03
1961/07
1964/03
1965/07
1968/03
1969/07
1972/03
1973/07
1976/03
1977/07
1980/03
1981/07
1984/03
1985/07
1988/03
1989/07
1992/03
1993/07
1996/03
1997/07
1954/11
1958/11
1962/11
1966/11
1970/11
1974/11
1978/11
1982/11
1986/11
1990/11
1994/11
1998/11
Date
Figure 2.1.64 Inter-annual variability: comparison between the historic SPI 12-month series calculated on
Piemonte, Emilia Romagna, and Sicilia and the running averages at 12 members of the European Block
(EuBLK) index. An example of interaction between large scale atmospheric variability and the surface
effect on a local level (regional).
years, favoured by the ever-increasing attention that is paid to this problem

and by a development in calculation resources.
These models are divided into two groups:
1) the first AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model)
combines the models that resolve the complex physical laws that reg-
ulate the atmospheric and marine circulation on fixed points of the
globe, including the interaction between two air-ocean systems;
2) the second AGCM (Atmosphere General Circulation Model) includes
all those numerical models that resolve the same physical laws but only
for atmospheric parts, while the marine one is approximate.
Both groups belong to the wider category of GCM (General Circula-

tion Model) and are very sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions,
to be sought in the chaotic nature of the system and that limit the meteoro-
logical forecast to no more than 14 days. In spite of the chaotic nature
of the system, the very long term forecasts and the climatic forecasts are
possible thanks to a number of components that show variations on more
extensive time scales (seasons and years). For example the ENSO (El Niño
Southern Oscillation) and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are the
two phenomena most commonly studied. The ENSO implies fluctuation
of sea surface temperature, rains, atmospheric circulation, vertical motion
and the atmospheric pressure over the Pacific; NAO concerns the fluctu-
ation of pressure between Iceland and the Azores. The temporal scale of
these fluctuation is very spread.
In order to give forecast scenarios that are useful in forecasting the
future climate of the Earth, these models are used after having modified
the initial conditions of the atmosphere-ocean system (like the sea surface
temperature or the concentration of gas in the atmosphere, or the different
uses of the soil, etc.). Each initial condition generates different future
scenarios.
The models in these categories (GCM) have an intrinsic limit consisting
of the impossibility of resolving physics on a scale lower than the mesocale
(about 100 km of resolution). These spatial scales are, however, important
for the study of the climate of particular regions that have a microclimate
due to the regional and local driving forces that act on spatial scales of
tens of kilometres or even less.
As already mentioned, the climatic variability on a regional scale is
a field that has yet to be explored, especially on the regional climatic
forecasting level. The major difficulty lies in the reporting the results of
the numerical models described previously on a regional scale, or resolv-
ing the problems connected to the low resolution of general circulation
models. This problem is known as downscaling.
In order to resolve this problem deterministically, the so-called RCM
(Regional Climate Model) or limited area models have been developed
over recent years. These consist of numerical models that resolve the
complex equations of atmospheric-marine physics in a limited and closed
dominion that is no longer global. They practically isolate a part of the

globe and, within this portion, increase the spatial resolution considerably.
In order to function, these models require data from the GCMs described
above, in that they require initial and contour conditions of the portion
of globe analysed. Having a much larger spatial resolution (about 10–
20 km), these models may simulate the regional climate beginning with
the diverse scenarios produced by the GCM.
One of the objectives of the current European projects regarding the
climate is precisely the comparison between the different climatological
scenarios on a regional level, in order to identify the consequences of the
more realistic scenarios in a particular region (for example, the Alpine
Arc and, therefore, the region of Piemonte itself). For this purpose it is
also possible to use all the instruments described previously. For example,
a correct vision of the past climate is fundamental in seeking the more
realistic futures from among the multiple scenarios offered by the GCMs
and RCMs. Furthermore, it is possible to adapt the study of the previously
described indices to the RCM results to experiment a forecasting of the
impact of climatic changes on the regional climate.
One of the works carried out through the use of the RCMs was the
explanation of the anomalous heat wave that occurred during the summer
of 2003 (Schär et al., 2004). In this study an RCM model was used to
simulate the possible future European climate by using a scenario that
foresaw an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmos-
phere. With regards to this scenario, it was found how there could be an
increase of up to 100% of the temperature variability with maximums over
eastern and central Europe (and therefore also Piemonte), which explains
the anomalous heat wave of 2003 (Figure 2.1.65).
In conclusion, over recent years the scientific world has demonstrated
a continually increasing awareness towards the thematic of climate change
on a regional scale. The reason can be found in the possibility of identifying
Figure 2.1.65 Variation of the

temperature and of the
thermal variability forecasted
by a regional climatological
model relative to the
June–July–August period and
for a scenario from 2071 to
2100 that calls for an increase
in greenhouse gas emissions
into the atmosphere (Schär
et al., 2004).
the appropriate measures and projects for the adoption of the correct
prevention policies and adaptation to diverse future scenarios.
Proof of this lies in the conclusion arrived during the meeting entitled
“Climatic changes in the Alpine Area): consequences for the popula-
tion and the environment”, which was held in Rosenheim (Germany) in
November of 2004, as part of the Interreg III B Alpine Space Project: “Cli-
matic changes are of fundamental importance for the Alpine Area. They
alter the natural landscape, bringing about new changes and natural risks,
whose rapidity and intensity was previously unknown”.
Therefore, the importance of RCM models becomes essential in this
context in that they are instruments capable of supplying realistic future
scenarios upon which interventions can be planned to deal with the social,
economic, and natural impacts that the regions must face. During the
meeting in Rosenheim, a preliminary research proposal was drafted that
also included contributions by Arpa Piemonte. This proposal is based on
the in-depth analyses of the scenarios forecasted by different RCMs on
different regions of the Alpine Space, using successfully-tested analysis
techniques, like the use of indices and applications of actual forms of
prevention, like the Arpa Piemonte Warning System, for diverse scenarios
provided for the RCMs. The objective is to shed light on the modifications
that can be made to the system, basing them precisely on the climate
variability and changes.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
The publications marked with an asterisk are not quoted explicitly in the text.
*Bluestein H.B. (1992), Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Oxford
University Press, Oxford.
*Costa G., Colombo S., Zanetti R., D’Ambrosio R., Rosso S., Ponti A. &
Segnan N. (1984), Stato di salute della popolazione a Torino. Cause di morte
nei residenti, anno 1982. USL 1/23, Torino. (in italian)
*Kalkstein L.S., Jamason P.F., Greene J.S., Libby J. & Robinson L. (1996), The
Philadelphia Hot Weather-Health Watch/Warning System: Development and
Application, Summer 1995. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
pp. 1519–28.
Kalkstein L.S. & Watts J. (2003), The Development of a Warm Weather Rela-
tive Stress Index for Environmental Applications, October 2003. University of
Delaware, Newark.
*Masterson J.M. & Richardson F.A. (1979), Humidex, A method of quantifying
human discomfort due to excessive heat and humidity. CLI 1–79, Environment
Canada, Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, Ontario, p. 45.
*Matveev L.T. (1967), Physics of the atmosphere. Israel Program for Scientific
Translations, Jerusalem.
McKee T.B., Doesken N.J. & Kleist J. (1993). The relationship of drought fre-
quency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied
Climatology, 17–22 January, Anaheim, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp.

179–184.
*Michelozzi P., Fano V., Forastiere F., Barca A., Kalkstein L.S. & Perucci C.A.
(2000), Weather conditions and elderly mortality in Rome during summer.
Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization; 49(4), pp. 348–355.
*Morabito M. & Bacci L. (2002), Gli indici biometeorologici nella valutazione
dello stato di benessere dell’uomo. Manuale CNR-IBIMET. (in italian)
Palmer W.C. (1965). Meteorological Drought. Research Paper n. 45, U.S.
Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C., p. 58.
Schär, C., Vidale P.L., Lüthi D., Frei C., Häberli C., Liniger M.A. &
Appenzeller C. (2004). The role of increasing temperature variability for
European summer heat waves. Nature, vol. 427, pp. 332–336
*Von Handenberg J., Provenzale A., Ronchi C. & Costafrola E. (2005), Technical
report: Analysis of an ensemble of long daily precipitation time series in North-
Western Italy – Interreg IIIB/MEDOCC Sedemed Project.
2.2 The Large Alpine Landslides
2.2.1 INTRODUCTION
Landslides have been defined by Cruden (1991) as movements of masses

of rock, debris or earth down a slope and are responsible for con-
siderable losses in terms of both economic resources and human life.
The gravity of such losses increases with urban expansion and the
transformation of land use that increasingly involve mountain areas
for reasons related to tourism development and for the improvement
of transportation systems. Therefore, it is not surprising that consider-
able resources have been invested in recent years for the research, the
application, and the thematics inherent to territorial planning on a world-
wide level. Attention has been especially focused on those catastrophic
phenomena generically defined as large landslides, the consequences
of which have a significant effect on human communities on a large
scale.
The literature contains numerous definitions used to describe the large
landslides. For example, the recent World Landslide Inventory conducted
by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) defined large
landslides as those gravitational phenomena that involve a volume greater
than one million cubic metres, that cause one or more victims, or that
induce losses equivalent to the annual labour of one person. This defin-
ition focuses mainly on the effects related to a sudden and catastrophic
movement of portions of unstable slopes and does not consider, for
example, entire slopes that are subjected to slow movements. In fact,
these phenomena are generally characterised by a low probability of
evolution as catastrophic landslides, but may potentially produce mas-
sive damage, either direct or indirect, to people, to property, and to
the environment. Furthermore, the generalised movement of vast por-
tions of slopes produces numerous secondary phenomena (like smaller
landslides or debris flows) that sometimes have a higher frequency. Very
often these secondary phenomena attract the attention of the commu-
nity and institutions, which require protective action without develop-
ing, however, awareness with regards to the overall movement of the
slope.
On the other hand, in almost all cases, it is not possible to carry
out interventions for large landslides in that such interventions are
either technically unfeasible and ineffective or excessively costly from
an economic point of view. In this context, the methodologies for the
evaluation and the mitigation of the risk assume a particularly signifi-
cant role.
2.2.2 A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH FOR HAZARD

AND RISK ANALYSIS
As part of the IMIRILAND Project (Impact of Large Landslides in the

Mountain Environment: Identification and Mitigation of Risk) financed
by the European Union (5th Framework Programme), a multidisciplinary
methodology has been recently established for the quantitative risk assess-
ment (QRA) related to large gravitational phenomena (Bonnard et al.,
2004). The QRA generally provides a useful scheme for the assessment of
the cost-benefit ratio of the mitigation measures by indicating strategies
for risk reduction and management. The QRA applied in the IMIRILAND
methodology was experimented in eight sites in the Alps and the Pyrenees
and allowed the quantification of risk through a systematic analysis of all
the factors that characterise the danger connected with large landslides
and the relative consequences for man and the environment. According to
the cases studied, four typical situations connected to the evolution of the
large Alpine landslides were highlighted:
1) slow and constant movements in extensive inhabited areas;
2) movements in extensive areas capable of production the paroxysmal
evolution of a gravitational phenomenon with the consequential mod-
ification of the geometry of the foot of the slope and the valley bottom
(landslide damming);
3) potential rapid or very rapid evolution of gravitational phenomena
(rock falls and avalanches) that involve inhabited areas;
4) evolution of gravitational phenomenon with the run out of considerable
debris flows in the drainage channel.
The principles upon which the IMIRILAND methodology is based
derive from the methodology for landslide risk analysis proposed in the
literature (Cruden & Fell, 1997) and refer to the following general outline:
• hazard analysis (analysis of the phenomena and relative probability of
them occurring);
• identification of elements at risk;
• analysis of the vulnerability of the elements at risk;
• calculation of risk.
The IMIRILAND methodology has especially improved the following
aspects:
1) organisation of a process based on the numerical expression of each
component of the hazard and risk developed sequentially by means of
simple mathematical operations and a matrix approach;
2) use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) for the spatial elab-
orations based on the principle that each component of the hazard and
risk is represented spatially.
According to these considerations, each component of the hazard
and risk, represented inasmuch as possible in quantitative and objective
The Large Alpine Landslides 111
terms, can be considered the numerical attribute of a specific spatial

representation. The analysis of risk can be synthesized in the following
three phases:
1) hazard analysis;
2) damage analysis;
3) calculation of risk.
2.2.2.1 Hazard Analysis

The first fundamental step that allows us to define hazard is the character-
isation of the danger. For danger to be strictly characterised, especially for
large landslide movements, it is necessary to develop a multidisciplinary
methodological approach that integrates the contribution obtained from
different complementary analyses: geological, geomorphological, histori-
cal, instrumental, geomechanical (models of triggering and propagation).
These analyses are developed consequentially, each of them supplying
a series of data and information that are used as input for the succes-
sive analyses (Figure 2.2.1). This process therefore continues to develop
together with the progress of knowledge. It is important to point out that
each analysis of this process may introduce intrinsic errors that may be
limited through a feedback procedure. The data, the knowledge, and the
instruments supplied by each analysis are briefly described below.
Geological analysis
Analysis of
historical data
Geomorphological
Analysis of GEOLOGICAL MODEL analysis
monitoring data
back analysis
GEOMECHANICAL MODEL
Figure 2.2.1 Scheme of the

analyses and models used
and integrated for the study HAZARD ANALYSIS
of large landslides.
Geological and geomorphological analyses

These are analyses that provide an initial characterisation of the phe-
nomenon being studied with the purpose of gaining an understanding
of the geometry of the landslide body (area, volume, depth, etc.) and
possible mechanisms of deformation and triggering.
These analyses provide a numerical simulation and qualitative defin-

ition of the probability of triggering (predisposition). In order for this to
be carried out correctly, the analyses must be carried out on-site (which
is to say on the landslide body itself), and around-site (which is to say
within the surrounding geological locality and region). The around-site
analyses become necessary above all when the gravitational deformation
is so extensive that it prevents the recognition of the basic geometrical
relationship among the discontinuities that affect the landslide body and
the principle structural units, not allowing a reconstruction of the original
geometrical-structural framework of the landslide. These analyses are also
necessary for an assessment of the hazard over large areas (for example,
the entire slope or valley), based on lateral extrapolations of the regional
geological features.
This geological-geomorphological approach, outlined in Figure 2.2.2,
links meso- and macro-scale data of regional geological models, as
summarised below.
On-site analyses of a landslide
These analyses allow the identification of the following models:
1) geometric, aimed mainly at a characterisation of the geometry and
the physical properties of the discontinuity system (type, number of
systems, orientation, persistence, type of termination, and intersection
relations), also providing indications on the dimensions and geometry
of the unstable rock blocks for a qualitative analysis of the kinematic
and failure mechanisms. However, an in-depth collection of data on
the landslide site is not always possible due to logistics difficulties, the
scarcity of rocky outcroppings on site, the high degree of fracturing of
the rock, etc.;
2) morpho-structural, aimed at providing a knowledge of the geo-
morphological characteristics peculiar to the entire slope (for
example: the deep-seated gravitational slope deformation) upon which
the landslide develops. This model defines the principle limits of the
gravitational phenomenon and the various landslide sectors identi-
fied according to the different kinematic behaviours (zoning of the
landslide). Over recent years, the geomorphological analysis of large
landslides has been more frequently aimed at the characterisation of the
entire slope or the entire valley in order to identify those geomorpho-
logical common (ubiquitous) elements that can govern the processes of
instability on a smaller scale. This type of morpho-structural approach
is aimed mainly at seeking the correspondence between morpholog-
ical and structural elements and is based on the assumption that the
morphological characters of landslides are the superficial expression
of structural elements of the substratum.
The integration of geometric and morpho-structural models allows
the identification of local features and of the kinematic behaviour of the
landslide.
GEOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
Imiriland Methodology
“on-site” data “around-site” data
Analysis of number, type Characterisation of the Analysis of shape and extension Analysis of fault and fracture Interpretation and statistical
Subdivision of landslide geomorphological
and geometries of faults into sectors (zonation) of morphological, lithological and kinematics: degree of analyses of remote
and fracture systems boundaries of the sectors structural rock units structural maturity sensed lineament systems
Geometric model of Morphostructural Local geological Regional geological Geometrical model

discontinuities system model model model of lineaments
Local features and Definition of morphological features, tectonic and

kinematic behaviour of the landslide mechanical units and their relationships with the main
geomorphological unit (slope, valley etc.)
Are the “on-site” and “around-site”
structural associations consistent?
Non consistent: Consistent:

Why? Geomorphological and
A) Prevailing local causes
structural constraints for
B) Different kinematic maturity
landslide interpretation
C) ? ?
Choice of geological parameters

and elements for
landslide modelling
The Large Alpine Landslides
Figure 2.2.2 Geologic methodology adopted in the study of large landslides (in Bonnard et al., 2004).
113
Around-site analysis
These analyses allow a better identification of the local models in that
they refer not only to the landslide site, but also to its surroundings (slope
and valley). These analyses are based on the knowledge of the:
1) geometry and extension of the morphological, lithological, and struc-
tural units that induce different kinematic and mechanical behaviour
of the rock mass (for example, the structural units can be distinguished
in order to identify sectors that are more susceptible to instability
according to the different degrees of fracturing);
2) kinematics and degree of structural maturity of faults and fractures.
The characterisation of the thickness and the type of fault rock, the
persistence and the architecture of the fracturing associated with faults
provide limits for the characterisation of the shape and dimension of
rock blocks or sectors that constitute the landslide body;
3) geometry, hierarchy, and distribution density of remotely sensed linea-
ments (from satellite images). The geometric and hierarchical models
of the lineament systems can be qualitatively and quantitatively com-
pared with the structural pattern. If this comparison provides an
acceptable correspondence, the lineament information can be used
as being representative of geological structures and extrapolated to the
different scales (from local scales to regional scales and vice-versa).
This type of information offers the advantage of being homogeneous
and can therefore be used for automatic statistical and numerical anal-
yses in that it is characterised by a number of elements that are more
representative in statistical terms and referable to widespread territorial
contexts.
The integration of local and regional models allows the identifica-
tion of mechanical and tectonic units and of their relationship with the
main morphological units (slopes, valleys, etc.), within which landslides
develop. Consequently, landslides can be subdivided into sectors char-
acterised by distinct morphologies, dimensions, geometries, and fracture
densities. The intensity of the danger will therefore depend on numerous
factors: position of the sectors in function of the slope geometry, config-
uration of the litho-stratigraphy, fracture density and intensity, maturity
of the structural elements, etc.
Comparison of data and on-site and around-site interpretations

of the landslide
In this methodological approach, the geometric and kinematic features
of the gravitational phenomenon are compared with the main geomor-
phological and structural features (tectonic and mechanical units) of the
slope, the valley, or the watershed in order to verify if the main features
of the regional geological context condition the instability inside and/or
outside the landslide body. If ever these conditions are satisfied, it can
be assumed that the interpretations on and around the landslide sites are
coherent, making it possible to laterally extrapolate the interpretations

around the landslide site and vice-versa.
If the interpretations are not coherent, the slope instability may be
caused by peculiar features of the landslide body. For example, this occurs
when the landslide is very mature or the kinematic evolution is no longer
controlled by pre-existing structural features (due to the presence of local
levels with mechanically weakened layers or conditioning by particu-
lar geomorphological features). This methodology allows the qualitative
description of the geometry and the evolution mechanisms of the unstable
area and provides a typological classification of the landslide, with the
space-time identification of its evolution (slide mechanisms, qualitative
behaviour of the landslide body, geometric parameters, and a prelim-
inary probability of occurrence) and a characterisation of the slope upon
which the landslide is developing. The contribution of this approach to the
quantitative risk analysis also consists of a preliminary definition of the
scenarios as a starting point for geomechanical and numerical models.
Analysis of historical data

There are generally two types of documentation available for the recon-
struction of events that precede gravitational phenomena. The first consists
of public or religious institutional archives (synthetic descriptive chron-
icles of the facts, old cadastral maps, etc.) in which the information must
often be re-elaborated through a critical rereading that takes into account
the historical context within which the documents were written and the
period the phenomenon in question occurred. This documentation is par-
ticularly useful in defining a preliminary knowledge framework and in
establishing a time-space recurrence.
The second type of document consists of aerial and ground photo-
graphs and technical documents that allow a precise identification and
quantification of the movements and volumes involved over time. The
precision of the interpretations depends on the quality, the number, and
time intervals to which the photographs or documents refer.
Analysis of monitoring data

As part of the study of large landslides, the data from a monitoring system,
if statistically representative and from an adequately positioned instrumen-
tation, can be particularly significant in the reconstruction of relations
between movements of landslide body and time. These data, according
to the type of instrumentation used and their level of sensitivity, allow
the quantification of the surface deformations (localised or areal), the
movements in deeper levels, the geometry of aquifers, etc., which is fun-
damental in establishing the constraints in geological and geomechanical
models.
Geomechanical models
Geomechanical models allow the simulation of a phenomenon/process in
conformity to realistic conditions by adopting simplified approaches to
mechanisms that determine and control gravitational movement and its
evolution. In this sense, they represent the synthesis and the validation
of the models described up to this point (geological, geomorphological,
etc.). The literature illustrates different geomechanical models developed
for various geological contexts, methodological approaches, and pur-
poses (for example Jing & Hudson, 2002) and generally divides them
into triggering and run-out models.
Numerical triggering models

Numerical triggering models are used in evaluating hazard in the attempt to
determine, on the basis of geomechanical elements, the temporal probabil-
ity of a landslide occurring. However, the probability of a slope breaking
over time cannot be determined unless the variation in the solicitations
or degradation of the mechanical parameters can be analysed over time.
Given that these variations cannot be quantitatively predicted over time,
only a non-temporal probability can be numerically calculated, as in Ein-
stein (1988) and Scavia et al. (1990). The evaluation of the probability
of triggering is even more complex when dealing with large landslides
because the geometric and mechanical parameters and their spatial and
temporal variability increase in the analysis. For these reasons, the geome-
chanical model is usually used as an instrument for the verification of the
mechanical congruence of geological models. In case of discrepancies,
new geological and geomechanical analyses are necessary.
Furthermore, in order for the model to adequately analyse the gravi-
tational phenomenon at hand, the expert in this sector must be capable
of: numerically discretizing the main discontinuities present in the rock
mass, specifying whether a 2D or 3D models is used, and selecting the
most suitable methodological approach (discontinuous medium or equiva-
lent continuous medium). Please see the works of Prat et al. (1993) and
Carol et al. (1997) for more on the theoretical principles.
Numerical run out model

The run out models are used to complete the definition of hazard scenarios;
the results of these analyses are aimed at quantifying, for a given volume
of mobilized material, the area of propagation of the landslide and its
intensity. These models are used to simulate the trajectories of individual
masses and the behaviour of widespread and complex phenomena like
rock avalanches, where the movement of the masses of broken rock is
simulated as a flow of interacting rock blocks. The methods of forecasting
obtained from these models can be classified as:
• empirical methods that supply and estimate of the run-out distance
of the landslide. They are based on the correlation between the mass
involved in the movement and the slope geometries, as in Howard

(1973) and Hsü (1975). These methods consider the slope profile, the
landslide deposit area and the quantity of material. They are methods
that are refined through the subsequent back analysis;
• analytical methods are aimed at the reconstruction of the movement
of each portion of the landslide body in space and time. These
methods take into account the slope topography, the characteristics
of the material, the forces inside the rock mass in movement, etc. For
the theoretical principles, see the work of Hungr (1995, 2001), Evans
et al. (1994), Potter (1972).
Occurrence probability assessment

The quantitative analysis of risk necessarily requires the assessment of
occurrence probability in temporal terms, as this represents the greatest
uncertainty in landslide hazard and risk analyses.
The occurrence probability can be expressed in relative (qualitative) or
probabilistic (quantitative) terms. In the latter case, a rigorous procedure
that includes mechanical and probabilistic methods should be applied to
take into account the uncertainties of all the geometric and mechanical
parameters (slope, shear strength, piezometric pressure, etc.). In the case
of large landslides, however, such a procedure cannot be applied due to the
high number of parameters involved and their temporal and spatial vari-
ability; furthermore, the number of catastrophic events is not statistically
relevant enough to conduct a probabilistic type of analysis.
An alternative procedure considers the relation between the landslides
and the intensity of the pertinent triggering events, like rainfall or earth-
quakes, through empirical correlations or more sophisticated methods
like, for example, the neural network methods (Bonnard et al., 2004). In
any case, it is difficult if not impossible to establish a relationship between
the magnitude of a landslide with the intensity of its triggering event. More
specifically, in the case of landslides induced by rainfall, the real cause
of the paroxysmal phase often lies in the combination of long periods of
modest precipitation prior to periods of brief but intense rainfall. The lack
of data and often of knowledge regarding the precipitation/slope move-
ment relations makes the application of this approach impossible. Above
all, in the case of large landslides often characterised by individual parox-
ysmal events, it is not possible to statistically determine the occurrence
probability.
The occurrence probability of a landslide can be estimated by means
of semi-quantitative methods that establish a relation between the his-
torical data on gravitational movements and the detailed geological-
geomorphological knowledge of the unstable area, together with the past
experiences concerning events comparable to those being analysed. The
historical approach consists of the careful evaluation of every type of
movement that occurred in the past, of which traces have remained, and in
the accurate description of its characteristics (typology, volume and area

involved, possible localization, etc.).
2.2.2.2 Damage Analysis

After the identification of the various hazard scenarios, each of which is
characterised by an area where the distribution of the process intensity and
the relative probability of occurrence is known, it is possible to proceed
with the damage analysis according to the following phases:
1) identification and evaluation of the elements at risk;
2) evaluation of the vulnerability;
3) calculation of expected impact.
The identification of the elements at risk is carried out by automatically
superimposing the area involved in each hazard scenario with the territo-
rial data (classes of land use derived from the territorial plan, population
distribution according to demographic data, strategic elements like trans-
portation systems or energy production plants, etc.) In the IMIRILAND
methodology, the elements at risk are classified in different categories,
each of which is attributed a relative hierarchical value from 1 to 4
(Tables 2.2.1 and 2.2.2).
The attribution of a value to each element at risk is a controversial
aspect of the risk analysis in that it is difficult to express it univocally.
In fact, even if it is possible to attribute a monetary value to the eco-
nomic activities or to properties, it is difficult to place a value on people
or the environmental heritage. Furthermore, the evaluation of assets at
risk is strongly linked to the political, social, cultural, and religious con-
text of where the risk analysis is conducted. As part of the Project Plan
d’Exposition aux Risk (DRM, 1990), in which a relative scale of social
costs for victims exposed to risk was utilised, a paradox emerged, accord-
ing to which injured people had a value 2–3 times higher than fatalities
due to the high costs of medical care, assistance, and rehabilitation of
persons who had became invalids. Within the IMIRILAND methodology
four categories have been identified as a basis for conducting distinct risk
analyses that allow the separation of property from people, and economic
activities from environmental resources. The four categories of value are
the following:
• physical, value of property in consideration of its typology and also
eventual reconstruction costs;
• economic, value related to production activities; commercial (turnover,
earnings, income, etc.);
• social, value related to the presence of man and the social utility of a
property (for example: a hospital);
• environmental, flora/fauna and landscape value (historical-cultural-
architectural) of an area.
The vulnerability of the elements at risk expresses a degree of loss
that the elements at risk (whether property or persons) may suffer if ever
TABLE 2.2.1 ASSESSMENT OF RELATIVE VALUES FOR EXPOSED

OBJECTS (BONNARD ET AL., 2004)
Relative value of
Assets Environmental
Element at risk economic
relative value relative value
activities
interruption
Densely built modern cities (with high-rise buildings) 4 4 1
Historical city centers 4 2 4
Residential areas 4 1 1
Productive or industrial areas 4 4 1
Strategic services and facilities 4 4 2
Extra-municipal infrastructures and plants 4 4 2
Valuable buildings or valuable rural centers
(historical, architectonic, artistic and/or cultural value) 3 1 3
Tourist accommodation – buildings 3 3 1

Valuable environmental areas – buildings 3 2 2
Local infrastructures and plants 3 3 2
Transportation facilities (highway and international 3 4 1
railways with relative services)
Strategic lifelines 3 4 1
Great traffic or strategic roads 3 4 1
Tourist accommodation – campsite 2 2 1
Valuable environmental areas – no buildings 2 1 4
Parks, sport and parking areas 2 1 3
Local services 2 2 1
Secondary roads 1 2 1
Secondary lifelines 1 2 1
Rural areas – farming and domestic animals 1 2 2
Forests (private and public properties) 1 1 3
Strategic risk objects
hospital 3 4 1
school 2 4 1
rubbish dump 2 3 4
TABLE 2.2.2 ASSESSMENT OF RELATIVE VALUES FOR

EXPOSED PERSONS (BONNARD ET AL., 2004)
Human lives
Relative value of human lives
(Number of persons involved)
0–1 1
2–9 2
10–19 3
> 20 4
involved in an event. Vulnerability is a function of the type of element

considered and the intensity of the process, mostly because it is the result
of interaction between energy released by the impact of the event upon
the element at risk and the capacity of the latter to resist the impact itself.
The methodology in question, beginning with the four value categories,

distinguishes four categories of vulnerability.
• Physical vulnerability considers: (a) the intensity of the phenomenon
(speed or energy), (b) the type, function, and resistance of the struc-
ture, (c) the state of maintenance and the deformation capacity of the
structure.
• Economic vulnerability considers: (a) the intensity of the phenomenon
(capable of producing temporary or definitive interruptions in eco-
nomic activities), (b) the type of economic activity or service involved
(industrial, tourism, transport, etc.), (c) the possibility of avoiding
inconveniences (for example, through the use of alternative roads).
• Social vulnerability considers: (a) the intensity of the phenomenon (in
relation to warning times), (b) the awareness of the population (depend-
ing on age and the capacity of the people to anticipate the event),
(c) the capacity of the people to understand the phenomenon and
evacuate the areas involved.
• Environmental vulnerability considers: (a) the intensity of the phe-
nomenon (in relation to the negative effects that it may produce directly
or indirectly on environmental resources), (b) the typologies of environ-
mental resources (species of flora and fauna and anthropic elements),
(c) the degree of resistance of anthropic structures (like Alpine villages
of historical importance, usually constructed in stone or wood) or the
repopulation capacity of natural species (especially rare or endemic
species).
The landslide task force of the IUGS (IUGS/WGL/CRA, 1997)
emphasised that, even if the identification of elements at risk and their
characteristics is sufficiently developed, the state of the art for the evalu-
ation of vulnerability is generally inadequate. For structural elements
(buildings, roads, railways, etc.), the evaluation of vulnerability depends
on the model that establishes a relation between the evolution of the land-
slide and the structure in question. This is relatively well-documented in
the case of rock fall while it is less so in the case of debris flow and slow
slope movements. For this reason, in order to evaluate vulnerability, the
IUGS task force suggests using common sense.
From a practical point of view, the IMIRILAND methodology suggests
two approaches for evaluating vulnerability: one based on the recorded
effects on elements at risk and the other based on the intensity of the
processes (Figure 2.2.3). In the first case, five classes of loss percentage
were applied (0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1) for each vulnerability category, while
in the second approach energetic thresholds obtained from the run out
geomechanical model were used.
The last phase of the damage analysis is the calculation of the damage
itself. It is expressed as the result of the multiplication of the values of the
element at risk (E) by the vulnerability (V):
D =E×V (2.2.1)
Figure 2.2.3 a) Quantification of the impact in terms of energy per unitary mass; b) Qualitative description of the
impacts according to the description of damage (Bonnard et al., 2004).
Maintaining risk analyses separate, each value category has been

multiplied by the relative vulnerability (for example, physical
value × physical vulnerability = physical damage, social value × social
vulnerability = social value and so on). Therefore this is a phase that
is carried out through an objective and automatic process (mathemat-
ical calculation). It is therefore important to emphasise that for the
evaluation of the damage to be reliable, the degree of subjectivity
in the previous phases (defining the process, evaluation of the ele-
ments at risk and of their vulnerability) must be limited as much as
possible.
2.2.2.3 Calculating risk

As previously defined (§1.4), the risk is obtained by multiplying the
hazard (H ) by the expected damage (D) and is expressed, analogously
to hazard, in temporal terms of annual probability.
R=H ×D (2.2.2)
In this phase, the calculation of risk considers only the probability of

occurrence and for this reason is expressed in terms of probability. In fact,
the two other components of hazard are already included: the intensity
(for the evaluation of vulnerability) and the area involved (identification
of elements at risk). The process for the calculation of risk leads to four
separate analyses: physical risk with physical damage, economic risk from
economic damage, social risk from social damage, and environmental
risk from environmental damage. This process must be repeated for each
hazard scenario or for the different probabilities of occurrence identified
during hazard analysis. In conclusion, synthesizing the entire process,

there are the following phases:
• hazard analysis supplies the hazard scenarios (area involved, intensity
of the process, probability of occurrence);
• the area involved identifies the elements at risk;
• through evaluations of interaction between intensity of the process and
elements at risk, four categories of vulnerability (physical, economic,
social, and environmental) are obtained;
• multiplying each category of vulnerability by the relative value of elem-
ents at risk results in four categories of expected damage (physical,
economic, social, environmental);
• multiplying each category of expected damage by the probability of
occurrence of the scenario considered, the risk scenario is divided into
four categories (physical, economic, social, and environmental);
• the entire process is repeated for all the scenarios or for the different
probabilities of occurrence identified.
In order to obtain a synthetic outline of risk, subdivided into various
scenarios and categories, it is possible to move on to different summa-
tions. In order to express the total risk of the scenario considered, one
possibility is to sum the different risk categories (physical, economic,
social, and environmental) within the same scenario; the sum of the dif-
ferent risk categories, maintained distinctly separate up to this point, must
be supported by detailed considerations that allow the homogenization
of the value scale and the clarification of the demonstrative significance
of the result. A second possibility is that of summing the risks of all the
scenarios identified within a single risk category, obtaining in this way a
total physical risk, a total economic risk, and so on. Even this sum has
a purely demonstrative significance and is justified only if it taken into
consideration that the elements damaged in a scenario have been repaired
or reconstructed before being newly damaged by the successive scenario
(Figure 2.2.4).
The problem of managing numerous data and a large quantity of spa-
tial representations of risk is dealt with effectively through the Geographic
Information Systems, which allow the overlaying of various levels of spa-
tial information and the development of mathematical operations among
the various terms considered rapidly and automatically.
The methodology proposed here highlights the importance of a cor-
rect calculation of the intensity and of the occurrence probability for
different scenarios in order to obtain an appropriate evaluation of the haz-
ard and risk in areas susceptible to large landslides. This is true above
all in relation to the facts that such phenomena are often associated
with a vast range of secondary processes, sometimes interlinked, that
tend to complicate the hazard and risk situations. The resulting complex
scenarios can include the extreme situation in which rare events occur
simultaneously.
Figure 2.2.4 Example of representation of different risk maps obtained by considering specific vulnerability factors
and through the GIS elaboration (Bonnard et al., 2004).
In order to demonstrate its validity and applicability in different con-

texts, this methodology has been experimented in some large landslide
phenomena in the Alps (Ceppo Morelli, Cassas, and Rosone in Italy,
Séchilienne in France, Oselitzenbach in Austria, Sedrun and Conters-
Gotschang in Switzerland) and in the Pyrenees (Encampadana in Spain).
The following paragraph presents on overview of the results obtained in
the case of the Ceppo Morelli landslide.
2.2.2.4 Example of the application of the IMIRILAND

methodology in the case of the Ceppo Morelli landslide
The landslide of Ceppo Morelli extends along the left slope of the mid-
Valley Anzasca (Monte Rubi) in the territory of the town of the same name
in the Province of Verbano-Cusio-Ossola. This phenomenon (which his-

torical data indicate as being complex, ancient, and large) was reactivated
during the meteorological event that struck northern Piemonte in October
2000. The landslide, which involved an area of about 160,000 m2 and an
estimated volume of 4–6 million cubic metres of gneissic rock belonging
to the Pennidico Units above the Monte Rosa nappe (Figure 2.2.5), caused
a displacement of more than 5 m and triggered numerous rock falls that
reached the valley bottom. The fallen blocks, some of which were big-
ger than 300 m3 , heavily damaged the highway S.S. 549 heading towards
Macugnaga, interrupting it, and threatened two small Alpine settlements
(Prequartera and Campioli).
Figure 2.2.5 Location of the

Ceppo Morelli landslide (star
and red circle) and geological
framework from the Structural
Model of Italy on a 1:500,000
scale (CNR, 1990). The
landslide is located inside
one of the main Alpine
tectonometamorphic units
(Monte Rosa Unit), consisting
mainly of eyed-gneiss and
micaschist folded by the
antiform of Vanzone (VA) and
bound by the Piedmontese
Zone (in yellow). East of the
Monte Rosa Unit there is the
Austroalpine domain (in
dotted brown and orange)
while to the southeast of the
Canavese Line (CL), one of
the main faults of the Alps,
there is the South Alpine
Domain.
Hazard Analysis
In order to understand the evolution of the gravitational phenomenon and
characterise the context studied from a geological-geomorphological point
of view, an accurate geological survey of the land and a systematic analysis
of aerial and satellite images were carried out. In particular, by integrating
the on-site data with the around site data, it was possible to define the geo-
metric and hierarchical relations of the discontinuity system (Figure 2.2.6)
as well as the lithological and mechanical characteristics of the rock mass
involved.
Figure 2.2.6 a) Landsat TM Images elaborated in false colours (band combination 7-5-4 RGB) with
lineaments (in red) and the landslide of Ceppo Morelli (in violet). The area within the dotted green line
represents the sector analysed in b); b) aerial photo with photo-lineaments (in red) and the Ceppo Morelli
landslide (in dotted blue); c) average cyclographics of the structural systems measured around the landslide
body and used in the stability analysis; legend) S1 and S2: schistosity; ZT: shear zone; K, K1, K2 joint
systems; F: regional faults and Fb: faults that bound the right flank of the landslide body; Ft: joint systems
(Bonnard et al., 2004).
Figure 2.2.7 Main characteristics of the Ceppo Morelli landslide (to the left, in Castelli et al., 2004):
1) detachment area; 2) translation area; 3) accumulation area; 4) main open fractures; 5) trajectories of rock falls,
and 6) main blocks of the October 2000 event; 7) cross-section of the landslide right (Bonnard et al., 2004).
According to the structural and geomorphological analysis, three main

areas were distinguished and are described below (Figure 2.2.7):
1) the detachment area borders the unstable sector in the upper part and
partially along the right flank. Two main discontinuity systems are
found in this area and are subvertical and orthogonal to each other in
NE and NW directions. The NE system, together with a secondary N-S
discontinuity system, corresponds on the right border of the landslide;
2) the translation area corresponds to a rock mass that has been released
and partially disarticulated, further subdivided into three main sectors
characterised by different morpho-structural features (Figure 2.2.7):
• Sector B1, consisting of an intensely fractured rock mass in which
the larger translations resulting from the October 2000 event are
more evident (more than 5 m). The translation occurred in a SSW
direction along the surface sub-parallel to the regional schistos-
ity. Following these movements, a series of persistent fractures
appeared, especially in the higher part of the slope along the border
with the detachment area;
• Sector B2, characterised by a rock mass that is less fractured than
the previous one;
• Sector B3, consisting of a rock mass released and separated from

Sector B2 by subvertical fractures in a NW-SE direction. In Sector
B3, where the slope presents an inclination higher than that of sector
B2, the rock mass shows evidence of valley bulging and toppling.
The lower margin of this sector is represented by the morphological
limits of the slope in which, even if partially masked by the vegeta-
tion, an alignment of rocky escarpments where the rock fall related
to the October 2000 event originated can be recognised.
3) the accumulation area consists of a scree slope mostly overgrown with
vegetation. It originates at the base of the rock scarps of sector B3
and reaches the valley bottom. The eastern sector of the accumulation
area above inhabited town of Prequartera seems somewhat older and
less active than the western sector, even if both are involved in the
translation and accumulation of the rock fall related to the October
2000 event.
The integration of the geological and geomorphological analyses has
allowed a zoning of the phenomenon and characterisation of the sur-
faces that border it, as well as the extent of the rock mass (estimated
between 20 m and 40 m). The movements recorded by the monitoring sys-
tem installed following the 2000 event confirm the zoning defined by the
geological and geomorphological models. In effect, the B1 and B3 sectors
manifest substantial behavioural differences (for example, the translation
speeds measured in sector B3 are higher than those in sector B1).
The geostructural and morphodynamic models have provided the geo-
metric and mechanical parameters for the realisation of the geomechanical
triggering model (Figure 2.2.8). The analyses conducted through the
implementation of 2D and 3D numerical models have substantially con-
firmed, from a mechanical point of view, the geometric hypotheses related
to the triggering and run out of the gravitational phenomenon.
In keeping with the previous considerations integrated with historical
analysis, three main scenarios have been identified:
• Scenario 1: rock fall, toppling, and sliding of rock blocks of different
dimensions (from a few cubic metres to a few hundreds of cubic metres)
that, when detached from the lower part of sector B3, will fall along
the rest of the slope with roto-translational mechanisms and reach the
valley bottom. The historical data document a certain frequency of
such phenomena as recorded in 1940, in October 1971, in April 1977,
in October 2000, and in June 2002, from which an average annual
probability of occurrence has been estimated to be 1/15. Numerical
models have been used to simulate the rock fall and the trajectographic
results were used to define the area involved (Figure 2.2.9);
• Scenario 2: collapse of sector B3. Considering the volume involved,
about one million cubic metres, it can be hypothesized that the phe-
nomenon will evolve as a rock avalanche. In order to identify the area
involved, the phenomenon was simulated by means of the integration
Figure 2.2.8 Volume of the

unstable rock mass obtained
from a 3D numerical
simulation. The acronyms in
the legend are compared with
those in Figure 2.2.6c
Figure 2.2.9 Result of the run

out model for scenario 1.
of some numerical models (Bonnard et al. 2004). The average annual

probability of occurrence for this hazard scenario was estimated at
1/115, or between scenarios 1 and 3;
• Scenario 3: total collapse of Sector B (translation area of the rock
mass). For this scenario it is also possible to hypothesize that the move-
ment may evolve from slide to rock avalanche in consideration of the
enormous volumes involved (about 5 million cubic metres). In order to
estimate the average annual probability of occurrence of this hazard sce-
nario, reference was made to the following historical documentation:
old chronicles containing references to important slope movements in
312 and 843 A.D., while more recent documentation is traced back
to 1816 and the event of October 2000. Beginning with this informa-
tion, an average annual probability of occurrence has been estimated
at 1/600.
Quantitative risk analysis

In keeping with the IMIRILAND methodology, three risk analyses were
carried out, or one for each of the hazard scenarios previously described.
The first phase regards the identification of the elements at risk, beginning
with the areas involved in the evolution of the phenomena, which are in
turn defined through numerical simulations. The elements at risk identi-
fied generally include residential areas (the historic villages of Prequatera
and Campioli) and forest, waterways, highways (S.S. 549) and secondary
roads, important infrastructures (power lines and hydroelectric plants).
The residential areas have a high social and environmental value, the lat-
ter in consideration of the significant historic and architectural patrimony
of the old villages of Walser involved; the highway has a high economic
value in that it is the only means of communications for the upper valley
where the important tourist resort of Macugnaga is located; the power
lines, the hydroelectric power plant, and the Torrent Anza that supplies
the reservoir have a high economic value, while the torrent and the forest
areas obviously have a high environmental value. The vulnerability of the
elements at risk was evaluated according to their structural characteristic
and the energetic information supplied from run out numerical models.
The buildings, most of which are old, do not present particular characteris-
tics of resistance to impact in the processes considered. Even the roadways
were heavily damaged by the falling of blocks with interruptions in the
traffic for more than 24 hours. Social vulnerability depends, instead, on the
degree of exposure of people to phenomena: in this study, it was decided
to consider the worst possible scenario in which people have no protection.
In the case of rock avalanches, the energy released from the evolution of
the process is the sufficient for all the elements involved to be destroyed or
heavily damaged, for which the vulnerability was assumed to be equal to
1 (100% loss).
According to the above mentioned considerations, the damage was

calculated first, multiplying the vulnerability values by the respective
categories of value of elements at risk. Then, the risk for each scenario
was calculated by multiplying the damage of each category (physical,
economic, social, and environmental) for the probability of occurrence
of each scenario (Figure 2.2.10). Lastly, the total risk was calculated by
summing, within each category, the result of the three scenarios in order to
present a synthetic overview of risk related to gravitational phenomenon
of Ceppo Morelli. From this synthesis we can see that the areas subjected
to high intensity of the rock falls (scenario 1) present higher values of
risk than the surrounding areas, other elements involved being equal. This
situation is due to the difference between the probability of occurrence of
the various scenarios that, in case of rock fall, is about 7 times greater than
scenario 2 and a good 40 times greater than scenario 3 (Figure 2.2.4).
Figure 2.2.10 Example of the

GIS elaboration of the social
risk map for scenario 2
Indirect risks and consequences on a regional scale

In order to complete the risk analysis, it is necessary to make some con-
siderations concerning the indirect effects related to the evolution of the
Ceppo Morelli landslide that were not considered in the quantitative risk
analysis. In fact, it is important to point out that damage can occur in the
area surrounding the borders of the scenarios described above due to the
airblast effect and dusts, processes associated with the hypothesized rock
avalanches. Furthermore, backwater may generate upstream from the rock
fall accumulation with the consequential involvement of extensive terri-
tories on the valley bottom. In this case, even sectors downstream from the
hypothetical backwater may be involved: due to overtopping or seepage
of the detrital barrier, a sudden emptying of the landslide dam lake may
occur, with the formation of a flash flood. Such effects were carefully
evaluated while establishing the civil protection plan for the entire valley
(Bossalini & Cattin, 2002). Other mitigation measures proposed consider

the protection of the inhabitants and road and traffic conditions. In the first
case, a rock fall protection wall was realized to protect Prequartera from
rock falls and another barrier is now being evaluated to protect Campioli;
in order to protect the road and traffic conditions from falls, a provisional
road was constructed on the opposite slope following the October 2000
event, while a tunnel is being planned in order to guarantee transportation
safety from and to Macugnaga.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bonnard C., Forlati F. & Scavia C. (eds.) (2004), Identification and mitiga-
tion of large landslide in Europe. Advances in risk assessment. IMIRILAND
PROJECT, European Commission – Fifth Framework Programme Rotterdam,
Balkema.
Bossalini G. & Cattin M. (2002), Studio dell’onda di piena conseguente ad una
ipotetica frana in località Prequartera. Regione Piemonte, Comunità montana
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Carol I., Prat P.C. & López C.M. (1997), A normal/shear cracking model.
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Castelli M., Amatruda G., Scavia C., Paro L. & Forlati F. (2004), The IMIRILAND
methodology: a proposal for a multidisciplinary risk assessment procedure
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Janeiro, June 28–July 2, 2004. Lacerda, Ehrlich, Fontura & Sayao (eds), Taylor
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Cruden D. (1991), A simple definition of a landslide. Bull. Int. Ass. of Eng. Geol.,
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French).
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July 1988 (2), pp. 1075–1090. Rotterdam, Balkema.
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2.3 Rock Falls
2.3.1 INTRODUCTION
Rockfall phenomena are common throughout all mountainous regions and

along the coastal cliffs, constituting a constant source of danger for lives,
property, and human activities in areas that are generally very active from a
point of view of tourism and main roadways. Of the approximately 34,000
landslide phenomena recorded in Piemonte by the IFFI project (see section
1.3 and Arpa Piemonte, 2004), 20.9% were made up of single rock falls
or areas susceptible to diffuse falls. In spite of such a wide diffusion of
the phenomenon, the literature contains few examples of analyses carried
out on a basin scale.
In fact, the process, even though apparently traceable to a rather sim-
ple scheme of the mechanisms that govern it, is complicated by the high
degree of uncertainty in the definition of the parameters that control both
the triggering and the run-out phases. Furthermore, the wide extension of
the areas involved (consider the maps of major transportation systems like
motorways and railways) makes it difficult to collect sufficient informa-
tion to conduct detailed analyses. For this reason the stability of a slope
can be evaluated only in a probabilistic way and the mitigation of the risk
should be linked to the calculation of the hazard, as a function of the
extension of the area involved, the intensity of the phenomenon, and the
probability of occurrence. In the case of vast areas this procedure must
necessarily be carried out through the use of simplified methods. For this
purpose, some countries, like the United States and Canada, have adopted
systems for the classification of unstable slopes, as for example the RHRS
classification (Pierson et al., 1990), based solely on visual inspection of
the cliffs and very simple calculations. These systems, developed essen-
tially for the analysis of roads and railways, have the purpose of identifying
slopes particularly susceptible to rock fall phenomena (Hoek, 2000), but
are not capable of evaluating the extension of the invasion zone and can-
not therefore be used for calculating the hazard in mountainous areas
where villages, tourist structures, and economic activities in general are
present.
One of the first examples of methodologies dedicated to the defi-
nition of rockfall hazard in vast areas is the STONE computer code
(Guzzetti et al., 2002), which is capable of evaluating the invasion area
and producing thematic maps on the basis of the topographical and geo-
morphological information available on a basin scale and using a 3D
simulation model of the trajectories of falling masses. A limitation of
this approach is due to the absence of a mechanical model that allows
the evaluation of the possibility of a detachment of rock volumes from

the cliffs; STONE is not in fact capable of taking into account the struc-
tural conditions of the slope and limits the probabilistic evaluation to the
evolution phase of the phenomenon, for which it is sufficient to know
the morphology of the slope, its lithological conditions, and the land use
(essential for the evaluation of the impact damping coefficient).
The CROLLI Project, carried out by Arpa Piemonte-Regional Cen-
tre for Territorial and Geological Research, in collaboration with the
Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering – Technical Uni-
versity of Turin (Politecnico di Torino), set the objective of developing
a methodology that allows an evaluation of the hazard conditions for
rockfall phenomena on the basis of a probabilistic mechanical method
for calculating the probability of detachment from the cliff. In consid-
eration of the large size of the area to be studied, the methodology is
based on the use of simple calculation methods that require physical-
mechanical and geometric parameters which can be easily obtained on a
large scale (e.g. available through the GIS). The result is a zoning of the
territory into areas with different degrees of relative spatial hazard, which
is a very useful instrument in territorial planning on a regional scale. In
fact, it allows the identification of areas susceptible to higher danger,
where more detailed studies should be carried out and more sophisticated
methods should be used in order to plan eventual mitigation interventions
to protect roadways and inhabited areas or prepare the civil protection and
emergency management plans.
The purpose of this section is to illustrate the potential of the method-
ology and the results that can be obtained. Following a brief description of
the phases of the methodology and their integration within the regional
Geological Information System data base, developed within the GIS
itself, an application on the site of Cels-Exilles (Middle Susa Valley,
North-Western Italy) is presented as an example.
2.3.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PHENOMENON
Rock falls are landslide phenomena that imply the detachment of rock
blocks and/or fragments of varying dimensions from a few decimetres to
several hundreds of cubic metres from slopes, cliffs, or excavation fronts,
and their successive movement along the slope until they stop (Varnes,
1978; Cruden & Varnes, 1996). The collapse may also occur due to the
mobilization of blocks contained in loose soils.
The detachment of blocks from a slope is strongly influenced by the
structural conditions of the rock mass (orientation, persistence, spac-
ing of discontinuities), by the geometry (orientation of the slope face
in relation to that of the discontinuities), by the mechanical characteristics
(discontinuity shear strength, tensile strength of rock bridges, etc.), and
Rock Falls 135
by eventual external loads (presence of water under pressure in the

discontinuities, earthquakes, etc.).
Once the detachment has occurred, the trajectory followed by a block
is the combination of four principal processes: sliding and/or toppling,
free falling, bouncing, and rolling. These processes are governed by
well-known physical-mechanical laws and may be described with simple
equations.
Sliding is generally limited to the initial phases of a collapse, takes
place over short distances (ranging from a few centimetres to a few metres),
and is characterised by low speeds and a considerable dissipation of energy
due to friction. For larger masses, sliding can also occur at the time of
impact but with a significant loss of energy.
Free falling represents the prevalent state of motion during a rock fall.
Guided by gravity, the process is described by parabolic trajectories and
is characterised by high speeds. During the free fall, the potential energy
of the mass is transformed into kinetic energy.
Rarely does the main movement of a mass consist of rolling only. It
usually occurs by means of a close sequence of bounces that generate
somewhat high parabolic trajectories (Broili, 1973; Azzoni et al., 1991).
Rolling can be observed only in round, oval, or cylindrical-shaped blocks
when the speed of the mass is modest and the slope presents pseudo-flat
surfaces that are only slightly steep and with almost no surface roughness.
The impact with the ground is the least known, most complex factor,
making it difficult to model. At the moment of impact, generally con-
sidered instantaneous for reasons of simplification, there is a loss of energy
and the direction of the movement of the mass can change.
Rock falls represent an example of a relatively simple mechanical sys-
tem that respects known laws, but whose behaviour cannot be foreseen in
terms of space and time, even though the initial conditions and the forces
involved are known. The trajectory of a falling mass depends in fact on a
series of prevalently uncertain factors, like the localization of the detach-
ment area, the structural conditions of the rock mass, the geometry of the
mass, the mechanical properties of the block and the slope, and the topog-
raphy (Ritchie, 1963). All of these factors are difficult to verify on the
field and cannot be determined with any degree of exactness. The geom-
etry of the topographic surface and the material properties vary notably
along a slope and cannot be determined with precision. Furthermore, the
total energy dissipated with each impact or during the rolling depends on
a variety of factors that include the geometry of the block, the type of
material, the geometry of the topographic surface, the speed of the block,
and the angle of impact (Azzoni & de Freitas, 1995; Jones et al., 2000),
all of which are difficult parameters to determine with precision.
For these reasons the study of the phenomenon cannot but occur in
probabilistic terms, on the basis of the frequency distribution of the
input parameters, so as to take their variability into account, even if in
a simplified way.
2.3.3 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
With the purpose of studying areas of a considerable size in a relatively

short time, the methodology is based on the use of simple calculation
methods that require physical-mechanical and geometric parameters
which can be easily obtained on a large scale. The data collection is there-
fore based on the analyses of the informative layers available in the Arpa
Piemonte Geological Information System combined with speditive field
analyses.
The procedure calls for the subdivision of the slope into homogeneous
areas, distinguishable by their structural, morphological, and lithological
conditions, which may be considered as constant. Within each of these
homogeneous areas, the structural conditions may lead to the definition of
one or more types of failure (planar or wedge sliding, toppling). For each
homogeneous area and for each type of failure identified, a speditive field
survey supplies the geometric and structural data needed for conducting
stability analyses through the Limit Equilibrium Method; such data are
translated into statistical terms with very simplified distributions. Through
the Monte Carlo method it is therefore possible to estimate a relative
probability of detachment for each type of failure indicated.
During the first phase of work, the WINTAM calculation code (Major
et al., 1974) was used for this purpose. This code is capable of analysing
the stability of rock wedges formed by intersections of two planar dis-
continuities. This phase was therefore limited to the consideration of
the probability of wedge failure, in order to focus on the definition of
a methodology and the integration of its principal components, leaving
the development of the calculation of the probability of planar or toppling
failure to future research.
According to the results of the probabilistic analysis, it is finally pos-
sible to carry out rock fall analyses (run out) through the computer code
ROTOMAP3D (Geo & Soft International, 2003). By simulating the trajec-
tories of falling blocks and associating a volume and relative probability
of detachment with each block, the susceptibility of each point of the val-
ley bottom can be estimated as a summation of the product between the
probability of failure and the energy of the impact extended to each block
in transit in that point. The simulation of rock fall trajectories requires the
selection of certain parameters – restitution coefficients – function of the
land use. Indications for a correct definition were obtained from the data
present in the literature and from back analyses of events that had already
occurred.
In synthesis, the methodology developed is articulated in the following
phases (Figure 2.3.1):
• data collection phase: collection and organization of field data using
the speditive technique; creation of a survey data file to be used within
homogeneous areas;
Rock Falls 137
Database
Literature
Field data collection Run out parameters
Volume of the blocks

Potential DEM
unstable blocks
Probabilistic model Run out model
Data collection phase Kinetic energy

Probability of failure
Detachment phase Stopping points distribution
Run out phase

Susceptibility index
External input
Figure 2.3.1 Schematic description of the methodology.
• detachment phase: calculation of the probability of the detachment of

rock blocks from the cliff through the Limit Equilibrium Method and
the Monte Carlo probabilistic technique;
• run out phase: determination of the fall trajectories of boulders through
a three-dimensional kinematic method and determination of rock fall
hazard.
The final result supplies the zoning of the territory into areas with
different degrees of relative spatial hazard, here illustrated through an
example of application on the site of Exilles, situated in the Middle Susa
Valley.
2.3.4 DATA COLLECTION PHASE
The first phase of the project is dedicated to the collection of field data
(Fontan, 2003). This phase essentially regards the surveying of the rock
mass, the surveying of potential unstable blocks, and the description of
the slope.
The survey of the rocky mass consists of the following operations:
• identification and outlining of the homogeneous areas;
• estimation of the average orientation of the slope face;
• identification of the main discontinuity sets and determination of their
characteristics.
The survey of the potentially unstable blocks consists of the collection

of the following information:
• type of failure (wedge, planar sliding, and toppling);
• discontinuities that border the potential unstable blocks (sliding planes,
tensile joint) and local orientation of the slope face;
• height and volume of the blocks.
The slope is finally described following observations on the field and
photo-interpretation that supply indications regarding:
• the type of slope (type and use of land, presence of anthropic facilities);
• the envelope of the maximum stopping distance of the main boulders
identified at the foot;
• the estimate of the volume of the main boulders identified at the foot;
• the identification of the discontinuity set subparallel to the direction of
the slope face in order to define eventual tensile joints.
Since this is a methodology to be used on a mid-large scale, the field
surveys must be of a speditive type. Over recent years, remote structural
survey methodologies have been developed alongside classical survey
methods (Pahl, 1981; Jaboyedoff et al., 1996; Rouiller et al., 1998). On
one hand, such methods are more speditive and suited to a large-scale
analysis, while on the other they have the advantage of identifying the
most important discontinuity sets and supplying significant average meas-
urements that cannot always be correctly estimated on an outcropping
scale. Considering the objectives of this work, remote survey methodolo-
gies were preferred, limiting more detailed surveys on sites considered
particularly significant. The data were therefore collected through the
observation of the slope from some viewpoints located at the foot or on
the opposite side of the valley. In order to facilitate the acquisition of field
data and create an objective analysis instrument, some acquisition stand-
ard forms were prepared. These forms were completed by the operator
for each homogeneous area identified. All the data collected were then
inserted into a specific database structured to allow easy access to and full
management of the data during the successive phases of the project. There-
fore, the parameters required by the probabilistic model (mean orientation
of the discontinuity sets, orientation of the slope face, height and dimen-
sion of the potential unstable blocks) and the parameters required for the
kinematic model (volume of the potential unstable blocks, eventual modi-
fications of the land use with regards to existing information, presence of
anthropic facilities, etc.) are identified for each homogeneous area.
2.3.5 PROBABILISTIC PHASE
The quantitative forecasting of rock falls is difficult due to the fact that
the detachment may be caused by a combination of minor variations in
Rock Falls 139
the geomechanical parameters (hydraulic pressures, discontinuity orien-

tation, shear and tensile strength, etc.). Such variations are often difficult
to evaluate in relation to the degree of uncertainty in the knowledge of
the characteristics of the rock mass. One way to take them into account
is to introduce mechanical methods into a probabilistic scheme in order
to evaluate how the uncertainties in the parameters influence the uncer-
tainty of the results (i.e. the safety factor) through the probability of
failure Pf ).
The analysis of the stability of a rock slope from a mechanical point
of view requires the knowledge of a series of parameters:
– geometry of the discontinuities: orientation, location, dimensions, and
shape;
– roughness of discontinuity surfaces;
– presence of filling material;
– mechanical parameters on a real scale and their decay over time;
– loads present at the moment of the analysis and their variation over time.
On the basis of this knowledge, a geomechanical model of the slope

can be constructed and numerical analyses can be carried out. The assess-
ment of the stability of a slope is provided according to the comparison
of the calculated safety factor and the design safety factor, established
by previous experiences and fixed by the Geotechnical Regulations.
Conventionally, the safety factor F is calculated as a ratio between the
representative values of the resistant actions and the destabilizing actions
(Hoek & Bray, 1981):
C∗
F= (2.3.1)
D∗
This operation, however, is particularly complex in the case of deposits
of large dimensions, for which the value of the geometric and mechan-
ical parameters cannot be determined in each point of the rock mass.
As a matter of fact, the resulting C ∗ and D∗ are functions of the input
parameters, generally of a random nature; they are therefore represented
by distributions of probability with regards to which the values of C ∗
and D∗ constitute only one possible choice. Their identification can
therefore result problematic and, assuming they are representative of
the entire corresponding distribution, they are in fact attributed with a
probability equal to 1. Defined as E(C) and E(D), the average values
of resistant C and destabilizing D actions, a nominal value of C ∗ less
than E(C) and a nominal value of D∗ greater than E(D) are assumed;
the conventional safety factor F obtained in this way provides the slope
with a margin of additional safety, the entity of which is unknown
(Figure 2.3.2).
In order to overcome this problem, it is possible to resort to a
probabilistic approach, with which the safety factor is instead considered
f
D
Figure 2.3.2 Statistic

distribution of destabilizing
forces D and of resistance
forces C. E(D) D* C* E(C) C, D
Figure 2.3.3 Definition of the

probability of failure. 1 F
as a true random variable and the judgement on the stability is given

according to the so-called probability of failure Pf , i.e. the probability
that the safety factor is less than one (coloured area in Figure 2.3.3).

C
Pf = P ≤1 (2.3.2)
D
2.3.5.1 The Monte Carlo method

Among the probabilistic methods available in the literature, the Monte
Carlo simulation technique requires resorting to an automatic calculation
code. In synthesis, starting from the cumulative distribution of frequency
F(xi ) of the base variables zi , the generation process of the safety factor
probability density is articulated (Harr, 1987) in:
1) extraction of a casual number R(0,1) between 0 and 1, by means of an
automatic generator;
2) assumption of a value F(xi ) equal to R (0,1);
3) calculation of the value of zi corresponding to F(xi ), according to the
particular cumulative distribution (Figure 2.3.4);
4) deterministic calculation of the safety factor F;
Rock Falls 141
F(x1)
R(0–1)
Figure 2.3.4 Monte Carlo

simulation: extraction of the
value of the zi variable,
having the cumulative
zi zi
distribution F(xi ).
5) repetition n times of points 1–4 until the construction of the statistical

distribution of F;
6) evaluation of the probability of failure:
• assuming a density law for F and considering the cases with F < 1;
• directly calculating the ratio:
n∗
Pf = (2.3.3)
n
where n* is the number of F less than 1 and n is the total number of
samplings.
The evaluation of Pf , characteristic of complete probabilistic methods,
calls for the knowledge of the statistical distributions of the base variables
and can imply a notable computational effort. For this reason, the safety
factor is calculated with the limit equilibrium method which represents a
simplified rapid solution for the study of slope stability.
2.3.5.2 Description of the three-dimensional mechanical-

probabilistic method used
The calculation method used during the project and implemented in the
WINTAM (Wedge along line of INTersection Analysis including Monte
Carlo simulation) calculation code applies the limit equilibrium method
to analyse the stability of a wedge made by the intersection of two planar
discontinuities (Major et al., 1974). The code allows to consider dif-
ferent shear strength parameters on the sliding surfaces, to introduce a
tensile joint, different distributions of water pressure, and eventual exter-
nal forces. The analysis of stability is based on a scalar analytical solution
for the general case as shown in Figure 2.3.5.
In the case of probabilistic analyses, all the variables are assumed to
be independent. Even if several types of distribution can be assumed for
the statistical variables (Gaussian, triangular, uniform, truncated normal,
Tension crack
Upper surface
of slope
Plane B
Plane A
Figure 2.3.5 Wedge failure: Slope face
scheme of the planes and
lines of intersection used in
the stability analysis.
f
uniform frequency distribution
Figure 2.3.6 Uniform

ϕ min ϕ med ϕ max ϕ
frequency distribution of the
input parameters: definition of
the variables. limits of distribution
exponential, or histogram), in the case of the project the distribution of fre-

quency of the geometric parameters is considered to be uniform since, in
the light of a speditive land survey, the variability of the data is provided in
terms of minimum and maximum value. Within this interval all the values
are considered to have equal probability of occurrence). The mean value
is therefore considered the base distribution value while the minimum
and maximum values are considered as the extremes of the distribution as
indicated in Figure 2.3.6.
The probability of failure is calculated with the Monte Carlo method.
For each variable, a value is extracted according to the specific statistical
distribution and, for each set of values obtained in this way, the volume
involved and the relative safety factor is calculated using the Limit Equi-
librium Method. At the conclusion of the sampling, the statistical analysis
on the volume of the wedge and the safety factor is carried out and the cal-
culation of the probability of failure is made as a ratio between the number
of cases where F is less than 1 and the total number of extractions.
2.3.6 THE RUN OUT PHASE
The value of the probability of failure and the block average volume
obtained by mechanical probabilistic analysis, together with other param-
eters that will be listed below, were used for the simulation of the
Rock Falls 143
trajectories of the falling blocks. The software used for the elaboration
is ROTOMAP3D© , developed by Geo & Soft (2003) for the analysis of
slopes where detachment at a high altitude and successive rolling of blocks
into the valley may occur. For the study of such a complex problem the
code uses a statistical approach that allows the calculation of the dis-
tribution of probability of the blocks stopping in the valley bottom, the
distribution of the kinetic energy along the slope, the trajectories of the
blocks and the maximum bounce heights.
The main geomechanical parameters used in the model are the normal
and tangential restitution coefficient, associated with the different cat-
egories of land use within the project. This is one of the most sensitive
points of the entire project because a small variation of this parameter
leads to a notable modification of the results provided by the program.
At the end of the elaboration, the code generates the following
output files:
Average specific kinetic energy – estimate of the isoenergetic curves
obtained from the elaboration of average specific energy levels. Using the
grid defined in the input phase, ROTOMAP3D carries out the calculation
of the energy for each stretch of trajectory, attributing the value obtained
to the closest node. The sum of the energy accumulated divided by the
number of segments associated with the node supplies the specific average
energy value (J/kg) to the node considered.
Maximum specific kinetic energy – estimate of the isoenergetic curves
obtained from the elaboration of maximum specific energy levels. The
procedure is the same as described above for the average specific energy.
Maximum flight height – calculation of the maximum height reached
by the blocks during the phases of flight and bouncing, used for the
verification of the characteristics of the protection interventions.
Stopping points distribution – grid that provides the distribution of the
stopping points of the blocks in order to evidence eventual accumulation
zones and the maximum distance covered by the blocks.
Susceptibility index – given by the product of the kinetic energy (calcu-
lated) for the probability of failure (input). This value is then normalized
with regards to the spacing between the grid and the number of trajectories
simulated for each starting point. The practical significance, less than the
terms of probability, can be summarised as total energy that should be
absorbed by one metre of a rock fall protective barrier. By introducing
the term of probability, the result can be interpreted as a relative spatial
probability of rock fall occurrence (susceptibility).
2.3.7 INTEGRATION OF THE PROCEDURE INTO THE GIS
The entire procedure for the evaluation of the trajectory of falling blocks
was integrated into the GIS by creating a graphic interface that allows the
Figure 2.3.7 Graphic interface through which it is possible to manage the code ROTOMAP3D© in ESRI© ArcView.
user to insert the input parameters, to start the calculation procedure, and
to analyse the results obtained with GIS instruments. This is a fundamental
aspect for the susceptibility evaluation process because it allows the inter-
section of the kinematic analysis with the informative layers relative to
the lithology, land use, built-up areas, road and traffic conditions, etc.,
and to obtain a real time distribution of the most vulnerable areas.
2.3.8 EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION
The entire methodology was tested on some sample areas of the province
of Torino, including the portion of the mountainside between the towns
of Exilles and Cels (left-hand side of the Middle Susa Valley), described
here. The site involves an area of about 1.5 km2 with altitudes between
850 m and 1,400 m and with an average orientation of the slope esti-
mated at 150◦ /60◦ . The cliffs studied consist of compact mica schist with
local intercalations of several decametres, locally hectometric, of striped
amphibolite belonging to the pre-Triassic unit of the Massiccio d’Ambin,
or more specifically, the Clarea series. Such cliffs historically manifested
numerous falls that involved the hamlet of Cels (locality of Morliere) and
some stretches of highway S.S. 24.
Rock Falls 145
Figure 2.3.8 Location of the testing area of Cels-Exilles. The homogeneous sectors identified during the field
observations are highlighted in red.
2.3.8.1 Probabilistic analyses

From the speditive field surveys carried out, 16 homogeneous areas in
the Cels-Exilles sector were identified, highlighted in red and numbered
from 1–16 in Figure 2.3.8. A successive and more in-depth analysis of the
discontinuity systems recorded during the survey have demonstrated that
only some of the homogeneous areas are capable of generating wedges of
potentially unstable rock (areas 1, 2, 4, 9, 15, and 16). For the analysis of
other homogeneous sectors, where the presence of potential planar sliding
(and, more rarely, toppling) type of failure was found, it is necessary
to use adequate mechanical methods, which will be implemented in a
probabilistic code in the future developments of the work. Due to the high
variability in the orientation of the slope in the area being studied, in some
cases the analysis of a kinematic system was repeated in order to take into
account some local front variation.
As an example, Table 2.3.1 indicates the geometric input parameters
of the wedge 15_4_fl (sector 15, wedge 4, local front), represented in
TABLE 2.3.1 WEDGE 15-4-FL: INPUT GEOMETRICAL PARAMETERS (MINIMUM, MAXIMUM

AND AVERAGE VALUES) AND RESULT OF THE MECHANICAL-PROBABILISTIC PHASE
PLANES DIP DIRECTION DIP SPACING H Imposs. cases Fs mean Pf
[°] [°] [m] [m] [%] [⫺] [%]
min mean max min mean max min mean max
A 140 145 150 30 35 40 3 21.2 0.96 59.1
B 214 222 230 5 40 75
GT 320 340 360 75 80 85 1 3 5
FL 155 175 195 40 60 80
1 2
3
W 4 E
2 1
DIP/DIR.
3
1 35/145 Plane A
Figure 2.3.9 Stereographic 2 40/222 Plane B
representation (lower 3 80/340 Tension crack
hemisphere) of wedge 4 75/175 Slope face S
15_4_fl (average values).
Figure 2.3.9. The parameters indicated in the table are: orientation of the
discontinuity planes on which the sliding occurs (plane A and plane B),
orientation of the tensile joint (GT ) and the local front (FL), spacing of
the tensile joint and height of the wedge (H ). Except for the height of
the wedge, supplied in deterministic terms, the minimum, maximum and
average value are indicated for each parameter. It must be remembered
that the frequency distribution is considered in a very simplified, uniform
way; this means that all the values of the interval included between the
minimum and the maximum have the same probability of being extracted
during the Monte Carlo simulation.
Concerning the strength parameters of the sliding surfaces, the spedi-
tive land survey provides no indication. For the sake of safety and with
reference to the Coulomb criterion, cohesion was always considered as
nil (taking into account fully persistent discontinuities), while a residue
value of 25◦ on all planes was adopted for the friction angle.
Rock Falls 147
Table 2.3.1 includes the results of the mechanical-probabilistic analy-

sis in terms of probability of failure and average value of the safety factor.
With regards to this it should be observed that, due to the variability of the
geometric input parameters, not always does the set of parameters sam-
pled with the Monte Carlo technique lead to a potentially unstable wedge.
For the calculation of the probability of failure, these cases are classified
as impossible and considered as equivalent to cases of possible wedges,
but whose safety factor is >1 (or stable). In this way the probability of
failure is computed as the ratio between the number of cases with F < 1
and the total number of Monte-Carlo samplings.
Finally, in Figure 2.3.10, the results of the analysis are provided in
terms of the frequency distribution of the safety factor calculated on pos-
sible cases (78.8% of the total) sampled with the Monte Carlo technique
and the resulting volumes. The latter distribution indicates that approxi-
mately 68% of the wedges analysed present a volume less than 1 m3 and
only 6% have a volume greater than 4 m3 (this percentage drops to 2% if
volumes greater than 10 m3 are taken into consideration).
0.45
b
0.40 0.40
a
0.35 0.35
0.30 0.30
Frequency
Frequency
0.25 0.25
0.20 0.20
0.15 0.15
0.10 0.10
0.05 0.05
0 0
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 >2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 >4
Fs<1 Fs Volume of the blocks (m3)
Figure 2.3.10 Results of the probabilistic analysis in terms of distribution of the safety factors (a) and
volumes of boulders (b).
2.3.8.2 Kinematic analysis

The kinematic experimentation carried out on the sample area of Cels-
Exilles consisted in the elaboration of a series of scenarios and in the
successive comparison of the results obtained with the historical data and
those collected during the survey (e.g. the location of the stopping points
of the blocks following a rock fall event occurred in the past).
This process resulted in feedback of the input parameters, in particular
the restitution coefficients, in order to obtain, by means of successive
iterations, results that are gradually closer to the observed behaviour of
blocks in case of a collapse.
Figure 2.3.11 Site of

Cels-Exilles: distribution of
the stopping points of falling
blocks. The cells in which two
blocks stopped are in yellow,
while cells in which more than
two blocks stopped are in
red. The red line is the
envelope of the historical
stopping points.
The following figures demonstrate the results of the first elaboration
carried out on the Cels-Exilles site. Figure 2.3.11 represents the distribu-
tion of the stopping points of the masses along the slope and the valley
bottom. The colours yellow and red highlight the cells within which two
(yellow) or more (red) boulders stopped.
In Figure 2.3.12 the spatial distribution of the Susceptibility Index
parameter is shown. The areas most involved by an eventual rock fall are
highlighted in yellow and red.
Figure 2.3.12 Site of

Cels-Exilles: distribution of
the susceptibility index:
higher levels are located in
the yellow and red areas. For
the legend, please see the
legend of Figure 2.3.11.
The analyses carried out on the results demonstrate that the estimated
fall trajectories follow a coherent trend with the morphology of the slope
and the stopping points of the blocks present a distribution that is basic-
ally in keeping with historical data (solid red lines of Figures 2.3.11
and 2.3.12), except in the inhabited zone of Cels. However, evidence
of boulders being removed after the falls has been found in this zone
Rock Falls 149
and therefore the envelope of the historical stopping point does not seem
reliable here.
2.3.9 FINAL OBSERVATIONS
Purpose of the present study was the development of a mechanical-

probabilistic methodology for the definition of rock fall susceptibility.
According to the results obtained in the experimentation and calibration
phases of the model, the following can be observed:
• the results obtained quite faithfully reflect historical data and confirm
that the forecasting model is correctly calibrated at the scale of interest;
• the whole procedure allowed researchers to work with georeferred data
during all the project phases; this aspect was proven to be essen-
tial for the correct interpretation of the results during the calibration
process of the parameters. The complete integration of the kinematic
component with the GIS also made the immediate intersection of the
results obtained with the Arpa Piemonte geographic dataset possible,
which proved to be fundamental in the identification of the zones most
vulnerable to rock fall phenomena;
• the calibration process that led to the definition of the coefficients of
restitution and friction will improve the organisation of the geographic
dataset of these parameters on a regional scale. These, together with the
other geographic data bases available (land use maps, colour orthopho-
tographs, numerical regional technical maps, etc.), will make it possible
to use the forecasting model in regional environments with contained
costs in time and resources.
Finally, it should be noted that such a result takes into account only
the formation of a wedge sliding type of failure. The integration of
mechanical-probabilistic methods for the calculation of the probability
of failure in the case of planar sliding and toppling types of failure within
the methodology will be the object of future developments. Moreover, the
possibility of taking into account a temporal probability of failure will
be evaluated on the basis of the analysis of the historical frequency of
rockfall events. Finally, the evaluation of the vulnerability of the exposed
elements (buildings, infrastructures, economic activities etc.) will allow
the consideration of rockfall risk.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Arpa Piemonte (2004), Progetto IFFI – Inventario Fenomena Franosi in Italia,

l’esperienza in Piemonte. Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological
Research – Arpa Piemonte (in Italian).
Azzoni A., La Barbera G. & Mazzà G. (1991), Studio con modello
matematico e con sperimentazione in sito del problema di caduta massi.
Associazione Mineraria Subalpina, Torino 28 (4), pp. 547–573 (in Italian).
Azzoni A. & de Freitas M.H. (1995), Experimentally gained parameters,

decisive for rockfall analysis. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 28 (2),
pp. 111–124.
Broili L. (1973), In situ tests for the study of rockfall. Geologia Applicata e
Idrogeologia 8 (1), pp. 105–111.
Cruden D.M. & Varnes D.J. (1996), Landslide types and processes. In Landslides
investigation and mitigation, Turner A.K. & Schuster R.L. (eds), Transporta-
tion research Board, National research Council, Special Report n. 247, National
Academy Press, Washington D.C., chp. 3, pp. 36–75.
Fontan D. (2003), Valutazione della pericolosità dei fenomeni di caduta massi,
proposta per il rilevamento speditivo dei giunti in pareti rocciose e delle carat-
teristiche del pendio sottostante – Relazione Geologica. Politecnico di Torino,
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica (internal report, in Italian).
Geo & Soft International (2003), ISOMAP & ROTOMAP for Windows (3D surface
modelling & rockfall analysis), User’s guide. Torino, Italy.
Guzzetti F., Crosta G., Detti R. & Agliardi F. (2002), STONE: a computer program
for the three-dimensional simulation of rockfalls. Computers & Geosciences,
vol. 28, pp. 1079–1093.
Harr M.E. (1987), Reliability-based design in civil engineering. New York,
McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Hoek E. (2000), Practical Rock Engineering. Course notes, (www.rocscience.com).
Hoek E. & Bray J.W. (1981), Rock Slope Engineering. Institute of Mining &
Metallurgy. London.
Jaboyedoff M., Philippossian F., Mamin M., Marro Ch. & Rouiller J.D. (1996),
Distribution spatiale des discontinuitées dans une falaise. Approche statistique
et probabiliste. PNR31. Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zurich (in French).
Jones C.L., Higgins J.D. & Andrew R.D. (2000), Colorado Rockfall Simula-
tion Program Version 4.0. Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado
Geological Survey, March 2000, pp. 127.
Major J., Marder F. & Kim H.S. (1974), WINTAM (Wedge along line of intersection
analysis including Monte Carlo simulation). Mining Research Laboratories,
CANMET, Department of Energy, Mines and Resources.
Pahl P.J. (1981), Estimating the mean length of discontinuity traces. Int. J. Rock
Mech. Min. Sci. Geomech. Abstr., 18, pp. 221–228.
Pierson L.A., Davis S.A. & Van Vickle R. (1990), Rockfall Hazard Rating
System Implementation Manual. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).
Report FHWAOREG-90-01. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Ritchie A.M. (1963), Evaluation of rockfall and its control. Highway Research
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Research Council. Washington, DC, Vol. 17, pp. 13–28.
Rouiller J.D., Jaboyedoff M., Marro Ch., Philippossian F. & Mamin M. (1998),
Pentes instables dans le Pennique Valaisian. Matterock: une méthodologie
d’auscultation des falaises et de détection des ébolulements majeurs potentiels.
Rapport final PNR 31. Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zurich (in French).
Varnes D.J. (1978), Slope movement types and processes. In Schuster R.L., and
Krizek R.J. (eds) Landslides analysis and control. Transportation Research
Board, Special Report 176, pp. 12–33. Washington D.C.: National Academy of
Sciences.
2.4 Shallow Landslides
2.4.1 INTRODUCTION
This typology of natural hazard is closely related to severe meteorological

events characterised by very intense rainfall. The landslides develop more
frequently in pre-Alpine and hilly zones, involving mostly limited portions
of loosened soil from the surface layer that has reached a saturation point
of water infiltrations.
The particular danger of these phenomena is related to their rapid
development and the difficulty in predicting their locations, as well as the
high distribution density of each individual phenomenon, whose down-
ward trajectories along the mountainside have such a high probability of
interfering with anthropized areas. Landslides consisting of the downward
movement of shallow layers of loose soil is one of the fastest natural pro-
cesses and can begin and end within a few minutes and sometimes even
in tens of seconds.
It is interesting to observe how, where the presence of a minimally
developed hydrographic system allows, the landslide material assumes the
kinetic characteristics of a flow when channelled along a wash-out bed.
2.4.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE PHENOMENON
These phenomena are characterised by:

• moderate thicknesses (s) and volumes (v); s: from tens of centimetres
to 150 cm; v: from a few cubic metres to a few hundred cubic metres;
• a high number of slides, up to even a few thousand, in relatively limited
areas, triggered by a single rainstorm;
• high spatial concentration (about 200 landslides /km2 , Langhe, Novem-
ber 1994).
These phenomena frequently demonstrate the following tendencies:
• the coalescence of the erosion scars and/or accumulations (aggregations
even of dozens of individual landslides);
• the transfer of the accumulations into the smaller hydrographic system
(resulting in the triggering and/or intensification of torrential debris
flow);
• high velocities (even faster than 50 km/h), which is translated into high
impact energy with buildings (4 victims in Serravalle Scrivia (AL),
October 1977; 18 victims in Tresenda (SO), May 1983; 11 victims in
Tartano (SO), July 1987; 14 victims in Varallo Sesia (VC), November
1994);
• the translation and stopping of landslide accumulation on level land

beyond the foot of the mountainside;
• strongly conditioned by intense rains;
• the almost total or total lack of premonitory clues;
• morphogenetic actions that have little effect on the original structure
of the mountainside;
• very low probability of reactivation at the site of the previous trig-
gering, but high probability of occurrence of new phenomena in the
immediately adjacent area.
The highest frequency of triggers is observed on slopes characterised
by inclinations between 25◦ and 35◦ , generally lacking arboreal covering
and with woody and shrubby vegetation in evolution, usually used as
meadow-pasture land or cultivated (in the case of the Langhe, mostly with
vineyards). The erosion scars are located frequently in the upper area of
the slope in correspondence with sharp changes in inclination (from gentle
to steeper) or in the vicinity of natural escarpments or anthropic terracing.
Even though the phenomena localized on straight open slopes are quite
common, a quite frequent and characteristic distribution is also observed
inside the catchment area, where there are very high concentrations of
landslides with a typically radial structure converging towards the centre of
the catchment basin (Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2). Given the triggering
of the phenomena and their localization, related anthropic conditioning
must not be underestimated, due to the fact that there is very often a total
Figure 2.4.1 Scheme of different geomorphic contexts in the landslide scar areas
(in Region Piemonte, 1998): a) slope characterised by a significant variation in the
inclination. The triggering zone of the movement is located just below the stretch
that is less steep; b) slope characterised by a weak overall concavity and by a
significant variation in the inclination. The trigger zone of the movement is located
just downstream of the stretch that is less steep; c) continuous slope; d) continuous
slope characterised by a weak overall concavity.
Shallow Landslides 153
Figure 2.4.2 November 1994 flood. On the slope under Cerreto Langhe some buildings were touched slightly by the
surface flows. The coalescence of the landslide trajectories is also obvious (in Regione Piemonte, 1998).
lack or insufficient retention of the rill and runoff waters in anthropized

areas and along the roadway network.
Landslide phenomena that involve shallow soil layers are marked
by movements that can be schematized in two main phases: trigger-
ing of the landslide and mobilization of the material. The triggering
phase generally occurs according to translational and rotational mech-
anisms. During the mobilization phase, the shifted mass runs quickly
along the mountainside, can remain more or less integral or destruc-
ture itself completely (flow) according to the mineralogical, geotechnical,
and hydrogeological characteristics of the soil involved. The vegeta-
tive covering and the topomorphology of the underlying slope also play
a role.
Figure 2.4.3 Types of

shallow landslides (in
Regione Piemonte, 1998).
An attempt to classify shallow landslides in the hilly context of the

Langhe (Regione Piemonte, 1998) resulted in the definition of five
categories that can be recognised according to the characteristics of the
initial movement and the degree of destructuration of the shifted mass
(Figure 2.4.3):
• Type A) portions of the altered surface layers that, even though they
are bordered and decomposed by fractures, are not subjected to move-
ments intense enough to expose the rupture surface. Only the incipient
translational soil slide is evident (Varnes, 1978);
• Type B) portions of the altered surface layers that have been subjected
to translations intense enough to expose the rupture surface. The shifted
mass, where it remains unaltered, is made up of disunited clumps that
have maintained their individual integrity thanks to the cohesive effect

of the radical apparatus – translational soil slide (Varnes, 1978);
• Type C) portions of the surface layers with superficial alterations that,
following the initial movement and the successive destructuration of
the shifted mass, degenerate into a flow. The movement of the shifted
mass is often associated with an erosive activity with the consequential
collection of other material. The accumulation, usually in a lobed form,
is usually easily identified – earth flow (Varnes, 1978);
• Type D) portions of the surface layers with superficial alterations that,
following the initial translation and the destructuration of the shifted
mass, degenerate into an extremely fluid flow with the transport of
suspended materials. The flow covers an ample laminar section and
progresses with little friction along the field plane without the occur-
rence of erosive forms. Generally there is no accumulation zone in that
the material is totally dispersed along the route – disintegrating soil slip
(Kesseli, 1943);
• Type E) are landslides that can refer to types B, C, and D, triggered on
escarpments that are very steep and very high (more than 30◦ ), directly
overlooking torrential beds. While moving, the mass is generally
destructured due to its high velocity and water content. The accumula-
tion is not visible in that it is picked up and swept away by the water flow.
2.4.3 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHOD: APPROACH FOR

ASSESSING HAZARD
Every assessment of hazard and risk must necessarily begin with specific
studies on landslide phenomena that identify the geometric, physical-
mechanical, and kinematic characteristics as well as the boundary condi-
tions. In the literature, the modelling of shallow landslides follows various
approaches (Crosta et al., 2001 with bibliography):
• with multivariate statistic techniques;
• through deterministic approaches based on mechanical-hydrological
models;
• through heuristic methods with empirical evaluation of the triggering
thresholds according to the instabilities observed.
For the absolute assessment of shallow landslide hazard over extended
areas, it is advisable to resort to models that are conveniently managed
within Geographic Information Systems and are valid instruments of
phenomenological synthesis yet offer the required simplicity of implemen-
tation. The concept at the base of these models is likelihood: an attempt
is made to reconstruct a phenomenon, a process, or an effect that reflects
reality as much as possible while adopting simplified approaches.
Due precisely to their simplified nature, the models, whether physical,
numerical, deterministic, empirical, or statistical, reduce the degree of
complexity of reality, allowing the desired representation to emerge more

clearly.
In the study of shallow landslides and, more generally, of all natural
processes, the use of models is designed to respond above all to the ques-
tions – “Why will it happen?” (a mechanical response, for example), “How
will it happen?” (intensity), “Where will it happen?” (spatial component)
and “When will it happen?” (temporal component).
Unfortunately, it is not always possible to predict where and when.
Not only is this particularly evident in the case of landslides, but also for
other natural phenomena, like earthquakes. The reason why it is difficult
to predict where and when a natural phenomenon will occur is that such
answers depend on the exact knowledge of a number of parameters and
boundary conditions that instead are known only approximately.
The choice of a model must be based firstly on the objective to be
reached and the difficulty in obtaining all the data required for its proper
functioning.
These requirements strongly condition the selection of the model
because even the simple extension of the study domain does not allow
the use of overly complex mechanical models, which require hydrological
and mechanical parameters that are difficult to determine. In fact, identi-
fication of such parameters requires considerable burden in terms of time
and effort (and therefore costs) and reliability of the results, not to men-
tion the objective difficulty of extrapolating local information to a much
wider study domain.
In any case, it is also possible to make a prediction without an under-
standing of the nature of the phenomenon, as in the case of repetitive
phenomena. For example, in the case of recurring shallow landslides
from a spatial and temporal point of view, the availability of historical
data enables researchers to find a relationship between the occurrence of
a landslide and some of the descriptive elements of the territory (physical,
mechanical, environmental, etc.).
In any case, whichever approach is followed, the response of a model
is characterised by unavoidable uncertainties. The degree of uncertainty
that one is willing to accept depends not only on the question formulated
by decisional authorities, but also on the type of problem and its spatial
extension.
In order to overcome at least the uncertainty of the spatial variability of
the input parameters and the results, methodologies have been developed
that call for the integration of forecasting models within the GIS.
The direct relationship between rainfall and the triggering of shal-
low landslides and the availability of a high amount of information
on such phenomena have directed the choice towards deterministic
methods based on mechanical-hydrological models (white box models)
where the dynamic factors of landslide triggers are explicitly taken
into consideration (rainfall, land use). Such approaches are generally
combined with a stability (limit equilibrium) model and a hydrological
model. The triggering of shallow landslides is usually attributed to the

following:
1) the vertical infiltration of water generates a temporary water table in
contact with the less permeable underlying substratum. The conse-
quential increase of pore pressure makes the slope unstable. A typical
approach is that developed by Montgomery & Dietrich (1994), who
called attention to the fact that shallow landslides originate more fre-
quently in areas where there is a convergence of subsurface runoff. The
method proposed is based on the evaluation of the capacity of each
element, in which the study zone is discretized, to drain the waters
from upstream, under steady state shallow subsurface flow conditions;
2) the soil is considered not to be saturated before the rainfall and there-
fore has an apparent cohesion due to suction; the vertical infiltration of
water causes the reduction of the suction and the consequential reduc-
tion of the apparent cohesion. A typical approach has recently been
developed by Iverson (2000) and Baum et al. (2002), who identified
the mechanisms of interaction between the soil and the infiltration,
evaluating the effects of the transitory behaviour of the rainfall on the
variations in the pore pressure in the ground and, in a final analysis,
on the times and localization of the shallow landslides.
The approach described in point 1 can be adopted in the case of shallow
landslides of a limited thickness where the failure surface corresponds
to the contact point between the soil and the substratum. The second
approach, even though it describes the phenomena in question in extreme
detail on their own scales, is difficult to apply on vast areas because of
the intrinsic complexity of the processes it is designed to model. In fact,
it requires considerable effort in the detailing and regionalizing of many
variables from the following points of view:
• economic and temporal;
• the significance of the input parameters;
• the representativeness of the results.
In light of the considerations discussed above, even though it is
believed that the response supplied by the non-stationary approach is
generally more rigorous, it is believed that an equally valid and coherent
response that meets the requirements for the application of a hazard assess-
ment methodology on a large scale is represented by the combination of
a stability model (limit equilibrium) of the infinite slope and a stationary
hydrological model method proposed by Montgomery & Dietrich.
2.4.4 DESCRIPTION OF THE METHOD: THE MECHANICAL-

HYDROLOGICAL MODEL
The Montgomery & Dietrich model combines the classic model of limit
equilibrium for slope stability with a hydrological model. It calls for the
discretization of the study domain into elementary cells for which the
variables and the input parameters are known. The hypothesis upon which
the formulation of this model is based is the following:
• infinite slope;
• failure plane parallel to the slope and localized at the colluvium-
substratum boundary (weathered bedrock or Quaternary deposits);
• soil strength according to Mohr-Coulomb criterion expressed in terms
of effective stress;
• steady state shallow sub-surface flow;
• absence of deep drainage and flow in the substratum.
In Montgomery & Dietrich’s original formulation, the aim was to
essentially study the influence of the topography on the triggering of shal-
low landslides. In fact, the model allowed the verification of the stability
of each individual cell where the study domain is discretized by using
variables and parameters. The variables are the attributes derived from
the topography and the morphology: inclination of the mountainside, the
drainage area, and width of the discharge are, in general, different for each
of the cells considered and derive automatically from the DEM (Digital
Elevation Model). The parameters are the physical-mechanical dimen-
sions that must be attributed to the surface sheets: thickness, soil bulk
density, shear strength parameters, hydraulic conductivity, and height of
the infiltrated rain. The model determines the quantity of infiltrated water
needed for each element to make the Safety Factor unitary, that is to say,
to destabilize the cell. Having an infiltration model available, for example
the Green & Ampt model (1911), to determine the precipitation, begin-
ning with the infiltrated water and a regional rainfall model, it is possible
to relativize the result by associating a return period. In this way, it is
possible to determine the spatial and temporal components of the hazard,
even if it is possible to provide a probability only for the latter. The appli-
cation of this approach calls for the participation of many professional
figures: hydraulic and geotechnical engineers, geologists, experts in the
Geographic Information Systems, and pedologists. The latter have proven
themselves to be fundamental in attributing the soil with certain properties.
The mechanical-hydrological model will be discussed in Chapter 3.5.5.
2.4.5 EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION: THE CARG PROJECT

EXPERIENCE IN THE DRAFTING OF A THEMATIC
CARTOGRAPHY OF HAZARD WITH SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL COMPONENTS
2.4.5.1 The project

The map of hazard due to slope instability for Planar landslides and
for Shallow landslides, on a scale of 1:50,000 have been drawn as
part of the CARG (Geologic Cartography of Italy Program) through
a convention between the Italian National Agency for the Environmen-

tal Protection (APAT), and Arpa Piemonte. The activities inherent in the
drafting of the Map of Hazard, part of the context of a special project called
Eventi Alluvionali in Piemonte (Floods in Piemonte), took into consider-
ation the Piedmontese territory within the limits of Sheet IGM 1:50,000
n. 211 Dego.
The aim was in fact to increase the reliability of the methodologies
used to assess risk by reducing the margin of uncertainty related to the
choice of input parameters and to the variability of measurements. The
in-depth knowledge of phenomena gained by the various disciplines
involved led to the identification of the most significant elements in
outlining the process of instability.
2.4.5.2 The survey sector

The study domain (approximately 470 km2 ) coincided with the portion
of the Piedmontese territory of topographic surfaces represented in the
cartographic field Sheet n. 211 Dego on a scale of 1:50,000. The map is
in the UTM ED 1950 coordinate system and respects the frame defined
by IGM (Italian Army Geographic Institute).
The area in question (Figure 2.4.4) includes an important sector of
the Piedmontese Tertiary Basin (Langhe) that is generally characterised
by a hilly landscape with asymmetric valleys. These valleys feature long,
slightly inclined hillsides that are parallel to the general stratification and
Figure 2.4.4 Location of the Dego Sheet.

dip in a NW direction. These gentler hills are faced by short, often very
steep hillsides, characterized by counter slope stratification and incised
onto the heads of layers belonging to a lithological series of the late
Miocene age, consisting mainly of marly-silty and arenaceous-sandy sedi-
ments in rhythmic succession. The essential lines of the geomorphological
layout are essentially controlled by the lithology and tectonic structure.
The lithological units are involved in a system of fractures with regional
diffusion and a mostly NW-SE and SW-NE direction.
The structure of the drainage network assumes a differentiated articula-
tion within the study domain, depending on which side of the Thyrrenum-
Po divide it incises. The Tyrrhenian mountainside, whose slope from the
watersheds to the coast often surpasses 20%, presents a drainage system
with a typical comb pattern and short waterways. In the Dego portion of
the Sheet, the Po river side demonstrates a less-pronounced acclivity on
an average of less than 5%. The main rivers that cut through it from NW
towards SE, Torrente Belbo, Fiume Bormida, Torrente Uzzone, pertinent
to the Tanaro River basin, mainly have orientations from SW to NE with
valley bottoms generally level mostly due to fluvial modelling processes.
According to surveys, the maximum quotas reached are almost 1,000 m,
while the most common average values lie between 400–600 m.
2.4.5.3 The workflow in brief: from basic data to cartographic

layout
The process of assessing hazard was governed entirely within the GIS and
was based on a consolidated scheme that had already been successfully
experimented for a series of studies on a territorial scale carried out by the
Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research
(Figure 2.4.5 and Figure 2.4.6). The nucleus of the entire process is
represented by the Montgomery & Dietrich mechanical-hydrological
Figure 2.4.5 Experimentation

of the mechanical-
hydrological model in an
Alpine context; simulation of
the August 1978 flood in the
basin of the Eastern Melezzo
Torrent, in the upper Val
Vigezzo (VB).
Figure 2.4.6 Experimentation

of the mechanical-
hydrological model in an
Alpine context; simulation of
the June 2002 flood in Valle
Cervo (BI).
stability model. The data that fuel the model, each one of which is
structured on an independent information layer in order to be processed
in the GIS, can be regrouped into three classes:
• physical-mechanical parameters;
• topographical variables;
• hydrological parameters.
From a methodological point of view, the process may be summarised
in the following phases (Figure 2.4.7):
1. collection of basic data;
2. discretization of the study domain into cells to form a grid of the desired
dimensions (10 m cell size);
3. acquisition and structuring of the input data in order to render the
information usable in a GIS; attribution of the raw data to the elemen-
tary reference units (pedologic units and land use) and finally to the
cells; pre-elaboration of the raw data in order to structure them into the
information required by the model;
4. implementation of calculation algorithms;
Meteorological Morphometry Pedological and

reference event land cover studies
Geotechnical data base
1 Geological and
geomorphological studies
Literature
Discretization of spatial domain into 10 m square cells

2 Numerical values are given to cells for each input variable
Estimated Digital
rainfall map Elevation Model
3 Infiltration model DEM data processing procedures
Infiltrated Topographical variables Geomechanical variables

rainfall map
4 Hydro-mechanical stability model
1:10,000 scale reference landslides scenario simulation Model

Critical triggering rainfall evaluation calibration
5
Positive Validation of the Negative
result simulation result
Filtering procedures to convert HAZARD

6 the simulation results 7 MAP
into 1:50,000 scale
Model parameters and variables Elaboration procedures in

GIS environment
Hydrological component
Final output
Topographical component
Geomechanical component
Figure 2.4.7 Making of shallow landslides hazard map.

5. model testing and calibration;

6. filtering and reducing to the scale selected;
7. production and laying out of the map.
Phases 1 and 2 regard the collection and structuring of the raw data
in the GIS. These data may derive from different kinds of sources: data
measured punctually and spatialized (rainfall, meteorological precursors),
data acquired especially through systematic studies of the soil (pedo-
logical, geological, geomorphological, and land use studies), basic data
acquired from other subjects (topography and DEM). In phase 3, the
raw data are pre-processed to structure them in the format required to
feed the model (infiltrated rainwater, topographical variables, physical-
mechanical parameters). At the same time, the algorithms of the hazard
model (phase 4) are implemented in a geographic environment. More
specifically, Avenue of ESRI© ArcView 3.x was chosen as the develop-
ment environment. In phase 5 the instability scenario of the reference flood
is reconstructed and the heights of the critical rains that triggered the shal-
low landslides are calculated. If the result of the comparison between the
real scenario and the scenario produced by the model is positive, the next
step is the final phase of producing the hazard map, subject to the applica-
tion of suitable filtering techniques (phase 6) in order to convert the results
from the 1:10,000 scale, which corresponds to the simulation scale, to the
scale decided upon for the map (for example 1:50,000); otherwise it is
necessary to continue with a calibration of the model to verify the cor-
rectness of the input data and the plausibility of the hypotheses assumed.
2.4.5.4 The results: zoning of the territory studied into classes

with different connotations of hazard
Figure 2.4.8 represents the image of the cartographic layout realized
following the process illustrated in the previous section.
The main field of the map, or the portion of the topographical sur-
face represented on a 1:50,000 scale, represents the spatial distribution of
the hazard categories in the territory examined. The legend used is found
in Figure 2.4.9. It can be noted that the hazard categories are expressed
both according to a nominal scale (very high, high, average, etc.) and in
absolute terms. The aim of the nominal scale is to supply an intuitive con-
notation of the degree of hazard expressed in absolute terms. To further
facilitate the reading of the map, it was decided to clarify the absolute val-
ues like the height of the critical rainfall and report the dimensions of the
corresponding return period of the phenomenon. The hazard scale calls for
six classes, indicated in the legend, from high to low, in order of decreas-
ing hazard and in increasing order of the height of the critical rainfall.
Only for the last of these classes, or the least hazardous one concerning
Tendentially Stable Areas, are there no indications for the heights of criti-
cal rainfall: these zones were assessed as being unconditionally stable by
Figure 2.4.8 Hazard Map of Shallow Landslides on the Dego Sheet 211 on 1:50,000 scale.
POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
HAZARD
SLOPE DISTINGUISHED BY THE
CATEGORY
HEIGHT OF CRITICAL RAINFALL
≤
Very high
< ≤
High
< ≤
Average
< ≤
Moderate
≤
Low
Figure 2.4.9 Legend for the Tendentially

Hazard Map of Shallow stable areas
Landslides.
Figure 2.4.10 Example of

application of the filtering
procedure: a) unfiltered
image; b) image after filtering.
The hazard categories
represented correspond to
those found in the legend of
Figure 2.4.9.
the mechanical-hydrological model (compare Section 3.3.5). The return

period classes used are coherent with those found in the literature (Fell,
1994).
As already mentioned in the previous paragraph, the scale constraints
explicitly required by this project (1:50,000) have made it necessary to
carry out an intermediate elaboration before being able to represent the
mechanical-hydrological results on paper (phase 6 of Figure 2.4.7). This
phase consisted of the application of suitable filtering algorithms to the
hazard model results. Figure 2.4.10 contains an example.
2.4.6 CONCLUSIONS
Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research

has years of experience in the application of a mechanical-hydrological
hazard assessment model for diverse morphological contexts. This vast

experience allowed the analysis of the limits and advantages of this
methodological approach. The most obvious limits and proposed solutions
are the following:
• the accuracy of the DEM, according to which the morphometrical vari-
ables of the slope are derived, can be overcome by using a detailed
DEM;
• the numerical and spatial consistency of the land measurements, espe-
cially when the study domain is extended, can be overcome either with
a careful selection of testing locations or by simplification;
• the hypothesis of the steady state flow, which can be overcome by
adopting more complete but more complex non-stationary models.
In any case, this model is worthwhile in light of the following
considerations:
• it is a method that has been studied, is known, and is universally
accepted;
• it is easy to use and required the knowledge of relatively few parameters;
• it provides acceptable results for the low costs that the data base requires;
• it creates valid models of the processes related to long-term meteoro-
logical events.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
The works marked by an asterisk have not been quoted explicitly in the text.
*Campus S., Forlati F., Nicolò G. et al. (2005), Note illustrative della carta della
pericolosità per instabilità dei versanti alla scala 1:50,000 – Foglio 211 DEGO
(in Italian).
Baum R.L., Savage W.Z. & Godt J.W. (2002), TRIGRS – A Fortran Program
for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope Stability
Analysis. USGS. Open file Report 02–424.
Crosta G., Frattini P. & Sterlacchini S. (2001), Valutazione e gestione del rischio
da frana – Principi e Metodi, Vol. 1. Regione Lombardia, Università Milano
Bicocca (in Italian).
*Dietrich W.E. & Montgomery D.R. (1998), SHALSTAB: A digital terrain
model for mapping shallow landslide potential. Technical Report by NCASI,
(http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/∼geomorph/shalstab/).
Fell R. (1994), Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk. Canadian Geotech-
nical Journal, National Research Council of Canada. vol. 31 n. 2, pp. 261–272.
Green W.H. & Ampt G. (1911), Studies of soil physics, part I – The flow of air and
water through soils. The Journal of Agricultural Science. vol. 4, pp. 1–24.
Iverson R.M. (2000), Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resources
Research. vol. 36, pp. 1897–1910.
Kesseli J.E. (1943), Disintegrating Soil Slips of the Coast Ranges of Central
California. J. of Geology. Bull. 51 n. 5, pp. 342–352.
Montgomery D.R. & Dietrich W.E. (1994), A physically based model for the topo-
graphic control of shallow landsliding. Water Resources Research. vol. 30,
pp. 1153–1171.
Regione Piemonte (1998), Eventi alluvionali in Piemonte, p. 414, L’artistica di
Savigliano, Torino (in Italian).
Varnes D.J. (1978), Slope movements, types and processes, in Schuster R.L.
& Krizek R.J. Ed., Landslides, analysis and control. National Academy of
Sciences, Transportation Research Board. Sp. Rep., n. 176, pp. 11–33.
2.5 Torrential Processes
Torrential processes occur in the Alpine basins along the smaller hydro-
graphic network and may cause considerable destruction due to their
rapidity, intensity, and unpredictability, damaging urbanized areas and
roadway and railway networks, as well as cross-border connections.
2.5.1 TORRENTIAL DYNAMICS: PECULIAR

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PROCESSES AND THEIR EFFECT
ON THE TERRITORY
The study of the causes, as well as of the triggering conditions and evolu-
tion of these phenomena, is of fundamental importance for the prevention
of related risks, which are often underestimated due to the long time inter-
val there may be between torrential flooding episodes in the same basin.
2.5.1.1 Characterisation of the transport typologies

Torrential dynamics are distinguished by erosion and transport processes
that vary greatly from a temporal and spatial point of view, and are espe-
cially active during even brief floods. The solid material present in the bed
and near the banks can be mobilized and involved in the movement in the
following ways:
• ordinary solid transport (bed load or suspended load): this occurs with
slopes moderate enough for the mixture formed by water and particles
to resemble a Newtonian fluid (hydrodynamic behaviour);
• hyperconcentrated solid transport: characterises the currents with a
significant solid content with non-Newtonian behaviour, where the
sediment is continually agitated by gravity and by reciprocal impact
among the particles (hyperconcentrated flows or debris floods); very
high concentrations of debris and/or muddy material and/or vegetable
material characterise debris flows, which are particularly destructive.
Debris flows may have different characteristics and effects on the ter-
ritory according to the concentration and spatial distribution of the
solids in the mixture (immature or mature debris flow), the granulo-
metric composition of the sediment (stony debris flow or mud-earth
flow), the density of the liquid-solid mixture, and the slope of the bed
(Ghilardi et al., 1999).
The result of the torrential activity is visible at the embouchure of
the tributary channels in the valley bottom: due to the reduced slope of
Figure 2.5.1 Upstream view

of the Rio Noaschetta in
correspondence to its
confluence with the Orco
Torrent in the Town of
Noasca (TO); an example of
interference between
torrential activity and
infrastructures.
the channel, the energy of the current is suddenly reduced, causing the
deposition of the solid material transported and so forming an alluvial fan.
The deposition in fan areas occurs during ordinary torrential activity, but
more often during paroxysmal torrential floods or flows, after which the
morphology may change considerably.
In mountainous environments, the fan areas with slight slopes and
elevated on the valley bottom have long constituted favourable sites for
urbanization, which is increasing considerably in Alpine valleys with a
view to tourism. For this reason, the danger assessment is fundamental to
a subsequent risk analysis.
2.5.1.2 Hazard assessment in alluvial fans: geomorphological

approaches and numerical models
For the outlining of the fan area potentially exposed to debris floods and
debris flows, historical-geomorphological analysis and numerical mod-
elling can be used individually or in combination. The first type of analysis
represents a preliminary study tool, that is fundamental for the delimit-
ing of areas that have been historically exposed to danger in terms of
enveloping the effects of past events. Through the integrated examina-
tion of available documents relative to events that occurred in the past,
of traces of more recent events, and the morphological features of the
fan, it is possible to delimit sub-areas exposed to different degrees of
torrential-related danger. For a more sophisticated quantitative assess-
ment, numerical simulations can be used. The wide range of available
models can be divided into three main categories: empirical-statistical
models, energy line models, and models that forecast the conservation of
Torrential Processes 171
mass, the quantity of momentum, and energy. In the first type of model, the
triggering, transport, and deposition processes are described according to
the distribution of probability in relation to precipitation threshold values.
The second class of models includes methods that identify the average
slope of the route between the detachment area and the deposition zone
as a dimension that represents the energy possessed by the moving mass.
The third class includes:
a) the initial approaches proposed for the modelling of the stony debris
flow (Takahashi et al., 1991) and of the mudflows according to the
rheological models of Bingham;
b) a group of models developed originally for the calculation of avalanche
trajectories (Voellmy, 1955), that allow a valid reconstruction of the
fields of velocity observed and of the described trajectories of debris
flows (Perla et al., 1980; Rickenmann, 1990; Rickenmann & Kock,
1997);
c) a series of models that describe the phenomenon from a hydraulic point
of view by defining of the liquid and solid hydrograph, beginning with
the parameters derived from the physical and rheological studies of the
process (Mizuyama et al., 1984).
2.5.2 HISTORICAL-GEOMORPHOLOGICAL CRITERION

FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN ALLUVIAL FANS
AS APPLIED IN THE CATCHRISK PROJECT
The Work Package 3, Alluvial fan flooding of the CatchRisk Project –

Mitigation of the hydrogeological risk in Alpine catchments, as part of the
Alpine Space Interreg IIIB Program, set the objective of identifying the
criteria shared on a European level for risk assessment in alluvial fans and
involved all the Italian Alpine regions in the Po Basin (Piemonte, Lom-
bardia, Veneto, Friuli, Trentino Alto Adige), together with the Professional
University School of Italian Switzerland (SUPSI–CH). In this section of
the Project, some from among the main historical-geomorphological and
numerical approaches available from various regions were applied in order
to share tools and knowledge; the results of the application are described
in the two volumes of the Project, the Report (AA.VV., 2005a) and the
Guidelines (AA.VV., 2005b). TheArpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Ter-
ritorial and Geological Research applied a historical-geomorphological
criterion to a significant geographical area (several hundred square
kilometres). This application was subdivided into:
1) a basic study component according to the Aulitzky method (1980),
which was applied to all the territory examined;
2) an in-depth study component intended for a limited number of allu-
vial fans, selected according to major interference with buildings and
infrastructures and to the high number of reactivations of the fan in
the past.
Regional scale study: hazard assessment according to

homogeneous criteria
During the first level of the study, a static methodology for the evaluation
of hazard in alluvial fans was applied to a consistent number of fans in
the Western Alps, according to homogeneous criteria. The main activities
were:
• analyses of available archive documents, mostly from regional data
bases relative to torrential flooding in the distant and recent past,
in order to find indicative frequency values of events for each basin
examined;
• cartographic and photo-interpretive multi-temporal analyses integrated
with land surveys of all the alluvial fans with the purpose of identifying
channels, deposition planes and critical points for the flow, whether of
natural or anthropic origins; photo interpretive multi-temporal analyses
of all the basins;
• inventory of the defence structures present in alluvial fans with the
evaluation of their state of maintenance and degree of efficiency;
• calculation of the slope distribution of the alluvial fan by application
of the Digital Elevation Model;
• cartography of the typology and the distribution of the plant cover in
the alluvial fan;
• GIS-analyses of the basin for the purpose of quantifying the predictable
theoretical magnitude for each basin examined, in terms of the debris
volume that may reach the fan area, obtained by applying empirical
formulas from the literature;
• outlining of hazard.
In order to guarantee regional homogeneity, within the WP 3 CatchRisk
Project the same criteria was used to realign the data pertinent to 110 allu-
vial fans in the Susa Valley (TO) produced in the previous Collection
and organization of territorial data; hazard and risk assessment for nat-
ural phenomena and Municipal Civil Protection Plans as part of the EU
Interreg IIC Operative Programme (Regione Piemonte, 2001a).
Proposal for in-depth study of sample basins: quantitative

estimate of the availability of debris in the basin and definition of
deposition scenarios in alluvial fans.
On a limited number of alluvial fans, the level of base studies was
integrated with geomorphological surveys of the basin and subsequent
specific elaborations. More specifically, the basin surveys were aimed at
directly estimating the quantity of sediment that was available along the
drainage channels and slopes and whether it could be mobilized in the
case of two hypothetical events: 1) minimal, in case of reactivation of
landslides that do not interfere directly with the drainage system and/or
reduced mobilization of the Quaternary covering 2) maximal, in which
the reactivation of major landslides interfering with the drainage sys-

tem, diffused phenomena of accelerated erosion, and mobilization of the
Quaternary covering are hypothesized.
In the following phase of elaboration on the surfaces of alluvial fans
with very high and high hazard levels, deposition scenarios (volume/
thickness patterns) were identified in order to quantify the debris that
can be stocked in such areas.
The volumes that can be deposited in the fan were compared with the
volume of sediment available in the basin in order to verify the preventive
measures actuated along the boundaries and the estimates of magnitude
deduced indirectly.
2.5.3 EXPECTED RESULTS
The aim of the first level of analyses was to provide a description of the
hazard that every alluvial fan is exposed to, with reference to homogeneous
criteria based on the analyses of the basin and the deposition areas. The
available historical documentation was also taken into consideration.
The purpose of the in-depth evaluation on a limited number of alluvial
fans was to provide a specific description of the factors that condition
the magnitude of the flows, supported by a quantitative estimate of the
sediment available in the basin and may potentially be accumulated on the
fan areas with the highest degree of exposure to floods.
2.5.4 APPLICATION ON TWO ALPINE CONTEXTS: THE

ORCO AND STURA DI DEMONTE VALLEYS
In order to make an evaluation criterion as homogeneous as possible and

then extend it throughout the regional territory for the updating of the
Arpa Piemonte Geological Information System, the alluvial fan hazard
was evaluated in two Piedmontese contexts that differ greatly from a
lithological and morph-climatic point of view: the Orco Valley (TO) and
the Stura di Demonte Valley (CN) (40 and 60 alluvial fans respectively)
(Figure 2.5.2).
The data base previously produced for hazard assessment of torrential
processes on 110 alluvial fans in the Susa Valley, with different degrees of
detail, in the Collection and organization of territorial data; hazard and
risk assessment for natural phenomena and Municipal Civil Protection
Plans (Regione Piemonte, 2001a) was reorganized according to this criter-
ion in order to produce a uniform database on three valley environments.
The basins being studied in depth are the Rio Vallungo, the Torrente
Ribordone and the nameless Rio in Ronco for the Valle Orco and the Rio
Becchi Rossi, the Rio Neraissa of Vinadio, and the Torrente Cant for the
Figure 2.5.2 Framework of

the area under study and the
location of the sample basins
being studied in detail.
Stura di Demonte Valley (Figure 2.5.2). In the Susa Valley it was decided
to study the Rio Pissaglio basin in detail within the CatchRisk Project in
order to have some means of comparison for the realignment of the data.
2.5.4.1 Approach to the regional scale study: hazard assessment

in alluvial fans according to homogeneous criteria
The basic analyses carried out on 100 alluvial fans in the Orco and Valle
Stura di Demonte Valleys are described in distinct phases below, sum-
marising the outstanding points of the methodology applied and providing
an example of the results; it must be pointed out that these phases were
heavily integrated with a view to overall hazard assessment.
Morphometrical analyses of the basins, alluvial fans, and

channels
The morphometrical analysis at the base of all the assessments made
was carried out with a Digital Elevation Model with a 10 × 10 m2 grid
designed by Arpa Piemonte and elaborated in ESRI© ArcView (Spatial
Analyst module), in order to outline all the basins and the alluvial fans
and map their main drainage channels. More specifically, when defining
the boundaries of the alluvial fans, it was useful to interpolate the contour
lines at a constant distance of two metres (Figure 2.5.3).
MEANING OF DATA BASE FIELDS

CODICE
Univocal identification
DENOMINAZIONE
Reference frame univocal denomination
AREA_KM
Fan area [km 2]
H_MIN_M_S_
Minimum altitude of the distal sector [m asl]
H_MAX_M_S_
Maximum altitude near the fan apex [m asl]
H_MED_M_S_
Mean altitude [m asl]
DISLIVELLO
Difference in altitude of the main channel in the
catchment area [m]
PENDENZA
Mean slope [°]
Figure 2.5.3 Typical database mappings concerning the description of the alluvial fans and example of
boundaries.
Analysis of historical data

A fundamental aspect consisted of the researching and cataloguing of all
archive documents that contained information on past torrential activity
in the study area. Most of these materials come from regional data bases.
This collection resulted in the production of a homogeneous dataset that
contains: site, event year, source code, coordinates, town, hamlet, body
of water, process typology, damages, and source.
The morpho-climatic differences between the two valleys analysed
seem to be reflected in the typologies and distribution of the torrential pro-
cesses: as demonstrated by the information contained in theArpa Piemonte
Geological Information System, the Orco Valley witnessed debris floods
and debris flows of significant intensities and frequencies over the past
fifteen years (Figure 2.5.4), while modest frequency values characterise
the Stura di Demonte Valley during the same period. If we wish to con-
sider time intervals on a century scale, it must be pointed out that there
is a much greater amount of recorded data available for the Orco Valley
(Figure 2.5.5).
Where historic data was available, average values were calculated for
the frequency of reactivation of the alluvial fans during debris flood and/or
debris flow events for the 20th century and for the previous period in the
Orco and Stura di Demonte Valleys (Table 2.5.1). Frequency is intended as
the ratio between the number of events recorded in a given time interval and
the interval itself. The maximum absolute values of frequency found for
Figure 2.5.4 Extract of data relative to the floods of 1993 and 2000 in the Orco Valley, available in the Arpa Piemonte
Geological Information System; from left to right, Vallone del Rio della Frera, Rio di Giroldi and Rio di Nora.
60
50 Orco
Stura
Number of Events
40
30
20
10
the events by century in the
Orco and Stura di Demonte 0
Valleys. XVII cent. XVIII cent. XIX cent. XX cent.
TABLE 2.5.1 FREQUENCY OF EVENTS IN VALLE ORCO AND VALLE STURA

FROM AVAILABLE DOCUMENTS BEFORE 1900 AND AFTER 1900
Before 1900 After 1900
ORCO
[events/period] [events/period]
Mean 0.011 0.027
Std. Dev. 0.008 0.024
Var. Coeff. 75% 87%
Before 1900 After 1900
STURA DI DEMONTE
[events/period] [events/period]
Mean 0.007 0.016
Std. Dev. 0.003 0.011
Var. Coeff. 38% 67%
TABLE 2.5.2 FREQUENCY OF EVENTS IN VALLE SUSA

FROM AVAILABLE DOCUMENTS
Frequency
SUSA
[event/100 years]
Mean 0.049
Std. Dev. 0.091
the 20th century in the Orco and the Stura di Demonte valleys were those
recorded for the Noaschetta (0.08) and Valletta (0.05) valleys respectively.
In the Susa Valley, the frequency value was calculated by considering
all the historical data available and the period of time between the first and
last event recorded, which was then compared to a period of 100 years;
in this case the maximum absolute value is that of the Rio Gerardo (0.51)
(Table 2.5.2) (Regione Piemonte, 2001a).
Multitemporal cartographic analyses

The multitemporal cartographic analysis was aimed at reconstructing the
morphological modifications of the alluvial fans due to the combined
effect of torrential processes, anthropic settlement, and the presence of
existing protection structures, by examining the Map of the Sardinian
States (Carta degli Stati Sardi) (scale of 1:50,000, 1848–1856), of the
IGM Tables (scale of 1:25,000, 1902–1931, with updates) and of the CTR
sections (scale of 1:10,000, 1991). Where available, other cartographies
were analysed (Figure 2.5.6).
Multitemporal photo-interpretive analyses

Multitemporal photo-interpretive analysis was useful in recognising the
peculiar morphological features of the active region of the alluvial fan.
This information is indispensable for reconstructing the evolution in
terms of:
• position and size of the drainage channel(s);
• development of control measures;
Figure 2.5.6 Example of historical cartography analysis available, Cant Torrent in the Stura di Demonte Valley.
• interference with settlements and infrastructures;

• vegetative pattern;
• relationships between the depositional dynamics in the alluvial fan and
the morphological evolution of the receiving watercourse.
The aerial photography from the following flights was analysed: Gai
1954, Ferretti 1979–1980, Rossi 1991, Regione PiemonteAlluvione 2000;
for the Orco Valley the Regione Piemonte 1973 flight was also used.
Figure 2.5.7 Extract from the

alluvial fan survey card.
Field surveys
The results of the cartographic analysis and the photo-interpretation were
verified and integrated during the field surveys aimed at systematically
acquiring information on the apical, median, and distal zones of the allu-
vial fan. The information collected was archived in a special survey file
(Figure 2.5.7) and georeferenced in ESRI© ArcView.
The photographic documentation on the alluvial fans was organised in
a quick-find photo index (Figure 2.5.8).
The data recorded in the file are synthetically traceable to the
characterisation of:
• channels upstream of the apex: bed in rock, deposits or vegetation;
dominant process: erosion, deposits or an equilibrium between the two;
most common granulometry of the bed deposits;
Figure 2.5.8 Example of the photo index.
• threshold (closing point of the basin that coincides with the fan apex):
in rock, in unconsolidated material, or a mixture of the two;
• straight, curved, or elbowed inlet angle of the channel in the fan;
• degree of channel incision in the apex, median, and distalzone: incised,
slightly incised, or perched;
• granulometry of the bed deposits in the apex, median and distal zones;
• presence of recently deposited materials on the surface of the allu-
vial fan;
• secondary drainage channels (which may or may not be reactivated in
case of ordinary events/catastrophes);
• potential overflowing points in the apex, median, and distal sectors;
• works and infrastructures capable of conditioning the propagation of
the discharge in the channels;
• anthropic elements historically involved in the flow or that may
potentially be involved;
• relationships with the receiving watercourse.
As an example, see the summary of the values observed in the Orco
and Stura di Demonte valleys for the granulometry of riverbed materials;
the differences between the two study environments from a lithological-
structural point of view seem to influence the different grades of erodibility
of the materials and, consequentially, the maximum and average dimen-
sions of the blocks in the riverbed (Table 2.5.3, Figures 2.5.9 and
2.5.10).
Inventory of protection devices

The control measures, hydraulic and crossing structures on the alluvial
fans were recorded and georeferenced according to the criteria for the
SICOD (Information System for the Registry of Protection Devices of the
Regione Piemonte (2001b) (Figures 2.5.11 and 2.5.12).
TABLE 2.5.3 MEAN VALUES OF MEDIUM AND MAXIMUM DIAMETER OF BOULDERS

IN THE CHANNEL (VALLE ORCO AND VALLE STURA DI DEMONTE)
DIAMETER
Fan apex max 2.39 1.84
Std. Dev. 1.13 0.79
mean 0.68 0.38
Std. Dev. 0.32 0.23
Middle sector max 1.79 1.45
Std. Dev. 0.72 0.65
mean 0.57 0.27
Std. Dev. 0.27 0.15

of the Rio Deserta alluvial fan
at approximately 900 m (Orco
Valley).
Estimate of the liquid discharge, the transport typology and the

expected magnitude
Beginning with the morphometrical parameters of the basins and
the alluvial fans, the liquid discharge, the transport typology and the
expected magnitude were calculated by using empirical formulas from the
literature.
The specific liquid discharge estimated with the Anselmo method
(1985) is included:
• for the Orco Valley, between 3.2 (m3 /s)/km2 for the Torrente Piantonetto
and 7.7 (m3 /s)/km2 for the Muà and Arianas Rios and for the nameless
Rio, in Pianchietti;

of the Rio Corborant alluvial
fan at approximately 960 m
(Stura di Demonte Valley).
Figure 2.5.11 Visualisation of

the features of the numerical
coverage dams realised
according to the SICOD light
standard; alluvial fan of the
Rio Neraissa in Vinadio (CN).
• for the Stura di Demonte Valley the values were on average a bit lower,
between 2.5 (m3 /s)/km2 for the Torrente Cant and 7.7 (m3 /s)/km2 for
the various waterways: the Rio Costa Piala, the Stiraculo Valley, the
Rio Becco Rosso, the Rio Sant’Anna, the Rio Neghino, the nameless
Rio in the town of Aisone and the Marchio Valley.
The typology of prevalent solid transport expected, deduced empir-
ically from the relationship between the average slope of the alluvial fan
and the Melton index (1965) and confirmed by field studies, is the debris
Figure 2.5.12 Detail of a dam

along the Rio Deserta in the
Orco valley that, even if in
good condition, is not very
effective in comparison to the
quantity and dimensions of
the solid material transported.
flow for all the alluvial fan except for the two cases in the Stura di Demonte
Valley (Rio Ferriere and the Torrent Cant).
For the evaluation of the magnitude, the empirical formulas of Ceriani
et al. (2000) and Bianco & Franzi (2000) were used and compared with the
formula of Hampel (1977) for all the basins examined in the CatchRisk
Project. For the alluvial fans in the Susa Valley examined during the pre-
vious Interreg IIC Project (Regione Piemonte 2001a) the formulas of
D’Agostino et al. (1996), Marchi & Tecca (1996), Rickenmann & Zim-
mermann (1993) and Takei (1984) were used, in addition to the formulas
of Ceriani et al. and Hampel. The results obtained led to the decision to
apply formulations perfected in contexts comparable with the Piedmon-
tese one in the following Project. The application of the Ceriani et al.
method requires, in addition to morphometrical parameters, the estimate
of the basin landslide index, which is 1 if there are significant landslides
that interact with the drainage system, 2 if there are landslides that are not
however in direct connection with the drainage system, and 3 if there are
no significant landslides in the basin.
The application of the Bianco & Franzi method requires the knowledge
of a series of integrative elaborations for the evaluation of the Geological
Index (GI), which expresses the degree of erodibility of rocky formations
and soils. The formula provides two values of magnitude: one minimum
referring to a recurring event and one maximum that can be traced to a
catastrophic event. A third value of average magnitude is located some-
where between the two previous values and is obtained by derivation. With
regards to the assigning of the GI in the CatchRisk Project a methodolog-
ical proposal finalised at improving the thematic coverages available in
the Arpa Piemonte Geographic Information System has been identified,

by referring specifically to two main control factors:
1) the degree of specific erodibility of the rocky outcroppings in the basin,
beginning with the lithological-lithotechnical differentiation proposed
by the Lithological Unit 1:100,000 information layer available in the
Arpa Piemonte Geographic Information System and then assigning
each unit a score according to the table proposed by the authors in the
empirical formula;
2) the typology of the soil covering as deduced from the numerical
coverings of the Forest Map drafted for the Mountain and Forest
Economy Authority by the Institute for Timber Plants and the Environ-
ment (IPLA-Istituto per le Piante da Legno e l’Ambiente), (Regione
Piemonte, 2002). These coverings, which are compatible with a scale
of 1:10,000, provide the areal extension of the class known as Rocks
and scree, which includes the outcroppings of the rocky substratum
and the loose debris covering that is lacking vegetation and pedologic
sheets. Hypothesizing a direct proportionality between the degree of
erodibility and the percentage of zones lacking plant cover or pedologic
sheets (abbreviated hereafter as %RD), the corrective factor of the GI
deduced according to erodibility of the geological formations alone is
introduced. Furthermore, in consideration of the fact that the degree of
erodibility is mainly controlled by the nature of the rocky substratum
(already taken into consideration in the GI estimate) in keeping with
the higher slope areas of the basins, the %RD conventionally refers
to the extension of the Rock and scree zones with inclinations of less
than 35◦ (Figures 2.5.13 and 2.5.14).
The Hampel method (1977) considers the values of the morphometrical
parameters of the basin area and the alluvial fan channel slope and was
used for comparison (Figure 2.5.15).
Once the estimation of the magnitude was completed by applying
the calculation formula described above and taking into consideration
the constraints of each one, it was deemed important to continue with the
identification of the factors capable of qualitatively increasing or reduc-
ing the debris volume that could potentially be mobilized in the basin:
the first group includes landslides directly over the terminal stretch of the
main drainage channel upstream of the alluvial fan sector and the pos-
sible formation of a temporary debris dam in the bed, while the second
includes the presence of artificial dams or natural lakes along the main
channel, important deposition zones along the main channel, areas with
karstic morphologies, or in any case lacking surface drainage channels,
and efficient and well-maintained retention devices of solid transport.
Parameterization of hazard
The hazard assessment of the alluvial fan areas referred to a static scenario;
for an assessment that takes into account a time factor, it would be better
Figure 2.5.13 Extract of the

Region of Piemonte Forest
Map; Rocks and scree class
highlighted in red.
Figure 2.5.14 Subdivision of

the Rock and scree class
according to the dip,
assuming 35◦ as the
discriminant value.
to associate the recurrence of expected events on each homogeneous area

of the alluvial fan with information regarding the spatial aspects and the
intensity of the processes in question.
The parameterization of hazard in the CatchRisk Project was defined
with reference to two groups of principal parameters – 1) primary and
2,000,000
Ceriani
1,500,000 Gsmax
M Hampel
[m3]
1,000,000
500,000
0
0 20 40 60
Fan Id
3,500,000
Ceriani
3,000,000
Gsmax
2,500,000
M Hampel
[m3]
2,000,000
Figure 2.5.15 Magnitude 1,500,000
values resulting from the
empirical formula of Ceriani 1,000,000
et al. (2000), Bianco & Franzi
(2000, maximum value 500,000
Gsmax ) and, for comparison, 0
Hampel (1977) in the Stura di
0 10 20 30 40
Demonte Valley (above) and
in the Orco Valley (below). Fan Id
2) secondary – whose spatial distribution is described in specific numerical

coverings:
1) morphological features of the alluvial fan and flow conditions of the
main channel (points I and II below);
2) local conditioning factors (points III, IV, and V below).
The primary factors that contribute to potential flooding of the alluvial
fan due to debris floods and debris flows are:
I. the morphological features in a strict sense of the word, which may
be evaluated mainly through the recognition of the area of influence
of the channel(s) (active and inactive but can be reactivated) and the
presence of gullies or deposits (recent and not) on the surface of the
alluvial fan;
II. the critical points along the main channel and the relative areas of
influence in case of bed obstruction.
Other factors, generically indicated as secondary, may contribute to
important changes in the degree of geomorphological propensity of the
alluvial fan as defined according to primary factors alone, including:

III. acclivity, as defined with the Digital Elevation Model with a
10 × 10 m2 grid;
IV. the vegetation, as defined in the numerical informative layers of the
Forest Map of the Region of Piemonte (2002);
V. the role played by control measures in conditioning the run-out of
debris flows and debris floods, georeferenced through a set of numer-
ical coverings structured in conformity with the Region of Piemonte
SICOD archive (2001b).
Each factor is assigned a score between 1 and 4 according to the
criteria described in Tables 2.5.4–2.5.7. The geomorphological propen-
sity (Table 2.5.4) is evaluated by integrating the results of the photo-
interpretive and multitemporal cartographic analyses as well as the
detailed morphological field surveys and the analyses of traces of events
(Figure 2.5.16).
Flow conditions in the active channel and in adjacent zones that may
be reactivated (Table 2.5.5) and the related areas of influence in case
of event are expressed with homogeneous degrees of geomorphological
propensity.
The analysis of the slope distribution constitutes a further element
of local conditioning in relation to the run out speed and average
TABLE 2.5.4 GEOMORPHOLOGICAL

FEATURES CLASSIFICATION
Score
4 points
Active or potentially reactivable channels; areas
inundated with debris in the past (maps of flood
events); accumulation/erosion features along
depositional surfaces.
3 points
Abandoned channels or not reactivable channels
in current morphological conditions; areas inundated
with fine-grained material in the past and lateral
zones of the active channel (the width is a function
of the local morphology); diffused erosion features.
2 points
Areas not influenced by the presence of active or
reactivable channels, which can be reached by
the flow in critical cases during catastrophic events.
1 point
Fan areas never influenced by the presence of
active or reactivable channels: surfaces
superelevated on the channel level.
TABLE 2.5.5 FLOW CONDITIONS

CLASSIFICATION
Score
4 points
Suspended channel; obstructed flow: very high inflow
angle in the apex zone, sharp bends, high inflow angle
of the channel in the main watercourse, critical sections;
active channel higher than adjacent surfaces; potential
morphological connection with reactivable channels.
3 points
Poorly engraved channel; obstructed flow: narrow
sections, quite sharp bends, potential morphological
connection with reactivable channels.
2 points
Free flow in the active channel, with remote possibility
of obstruction/overflow in case of catastrophic event.
1 point
Free water flow in the active channel.
TABLE 2.5.6 STEEPNESS (S)

CLASSIFICATION
Score
4 points
S > 15%
3 points
7% < S < 15%
2 points
2% < S < 7%
1 point
S < 2%
granulometry of the clasts transported. Reference was made to Aulitzky

(1980) (Table 2.5.6) for the classification of the acclivity.
Even the vegetation was parameterised in keeping with the subdivi-
sions proposed by Aulitzky (1980) as described in Table 2.5.7.
The roles played by control measures are classified according to their
effectiveness and functionality in Table 2.5.8.
The final degree of hazard of the alluvial fan is obtained through
an algebraic summation of the scores assigned to each control factor as
described above.
TABLE 2.5.7 LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION, IN ACCORDANCE WITH AULITZKY (1980)
LAND COVER CLASS PLANT FEATURES (Aulitzky) SCORE
Urbanized areas, infrastructure - 0

works
Pebbly riverbanks - 0
Lands fit for seed D No block trenches, no terracing, 1

slightly stony soil
Open grasslands C Predominantly meadows divided by 2
block trenches and stony soil
Unused open grasslands
Rupicolous open grasslands
Grass lands-pasture lands
Maple-lime-ash woods
Chestnut woods
Beech woods
Woody arboriculture system Trees (pines, larches) of different ages
B 3
Larch groves and stone pine woods and red spruce on stony and coarse soil
Black hornbean woods

Scots pine forests
Spruce woods
Unciform pine forests
Sessile oak woods
Durmast oak woods
Mosaic unit
Fir-woods
Water
Alpine and plain Alder woods
Subalpine shrub woods
Pioneer scrub Pioneer vegetation on pebbly soil with
A 4
Bush the first larches and pines
Pastured bush
Riparian woody formations
Reforestation
Locust-tree woods
Rocks and debris
Figure 2.5.16 Classification

of the geomorphological
features; alluvial fans of the
Rio della Frera and the Rio di
Giroldi in the Orco Valley with
indications of the critical
points for the discharge and
the significant morphological
features (morphological
lines).
Figure 2.5.17 Classification

of the acclivity according to
Aulitzky (1980); alluvial fan of
the Rio Vallungo in the Orco
Valley.
Through the sum of individual scores of the factors considered,

hazard is also expressed in 4 classes: low, medium, high, very high
(Figure 2.5.19).
2.5.4.2 Detailed analysis of sample basins: quantitative estimate

of the availability of debris in the basin and defining of
deposition scenarios in alluvial fans
The following specific activities were carried out for the sample basins:
1) field survey: (a) of the alluvial fan: detailed topographical survey on
the main channel for the purpose of calibrating the Digital Elevation
TABLE 2.5.8 CLASSIFICATION OF EFFICACY AND

EFFECTIVENESS OF CONTROL MEASURES
Influence of control measures on the flow/score
Positive (ⴚ1)
Correctly realized and really effective control measures,
in good maintenance conditions; bridges do not (or hardly)
impede the flow in the main channel.
Uninfluential (0)
Absence of control measures; control measures with
uninfluential effect on the flow in the main channel.
Negative (ⴙ1)
Ineffective control measures; scarce maintenance;
bridges and cross-sections which can cause obstructions
to the flow in the main channel; dams upstream of the
structure which can cause elevation of the bottom of the
river-bed; service paths to the river-bed divergent from
the channel; potential overflow direction(s); control
structures or crosses near the fan apex, which can cause
temporary obstruction or deviation of the flow; artificial
narrowings in the channel section in the median-distal
sector of the fan; embankments which impede re-entry
in case of overflow.
Figure 2.5.18 Map of the

plant cover according to
Aulitzky (1980); Rio della
Frera and Rio di Giroldi in the
Orco Valley.
Model (Figure 2.5.20); (b) in the basin: estimation of the volumes

of debris present along the main and secondary channels (taking into
account the presence and the role of the control measures) and poten-
tially deriving from the slope areas affected by landslides recorded by
the IFFI Project and by other typologies of gravitational instability;
HAZARD ASSESSED BY MEANS OF PRIMARY

(GEOMORPHOLOGY, RUN OFF CONDITIONS)
AND SECONDARY FACTORS (SLOPE, LAND
COVER, SLOPE STABILIZATIONS)
LOW
Figure 2.5.19 Hazard map of
MEDIUM
the alluvial fan of the Cant
Torrent in the Stura di HIGH
Demonte Valley. VERY HIGH
Fan SD37
920.0
Altitude from DEM [m asl]
900.0
Figure 2.5.20 Correlation
between the topographic 880.0
information deduced from the
Digital Elevation Model and 860.0
from detailed topographic
surveys along the channels in 840.0
correspondence to the banks 850.0 860.0 870.0 880.0 890.0 900.0 910.0
of the alluvial fan. Altitude from topographic survey [m asl]

2) elaboration aimed at: (a) quantifying the debris volumes in the basin
and compare these volumes with those obtained from the application
of empirical formulas; (b) verifying the debris volumes that can be
deposited on the surface of the alluvial fan with high and very high
hazard levels (according to different scenarios), and comparing these
scenarios with the volume observed in the basin. The criteria followed
during the (a) and (b) phases of elaboration are described in detail
below.
a) In order to quantify the volume of debris present in the basin along
channels and slopes, specific procedures that attempt to consider and
quantify of the highest number of parameters were followed. More
specifically, the dimensions measured for estimating the quantity of
debris along the drainage channel are the following:
• length of the homogeneous reach;
• percentage of unconsolidated deposits along the reach;
• width of the cross section occupied by unconsolidated deposits and
deposits that are potentially mobile during flooding;
• thickness of the unconsolidated deposits in the cross section and
deposits that are potentially mobile during flooding;
• availability of deposits in the reach deriving from the product of the
previous dimensions;
• calculation of the availability of debris for the homogeneous reach
by dividing the previous dimension by the length of the reach.
This latter figure, visualised in reference to the four classes of

increasing intensity, provides an important element for the assessment
of the specific magnitude, or of the volume of the potentially mobilized
sediment in the cross section (1 m long reach). The analysis of the vari-
ations of the intensity of this parameter along different channels of the
drainage system within each basin allows the immediate visualization
of the preferential zones of debris accumulation.
The areal analysis of the slope instability process, which affect
the slopes pertinent to the drainage channels, takes into account the
classifications established by the IFFI Project. More specifically, the
following parameters were evaluated for each typology:
• the surface of the landslide;
• the average depth of the sliding/failure surface;
• the theoretical volume of the landslide body;
• the percentage of the theoretical volume that would be poten-
tially mobile in the drainage system during an eventual reactiva-
tion of the landslide, with reference to a minimal or maximum
hypothesis;
• the average unitary areal contribution of the landslide to the loose
materials (expressed by the ratio between potentially mobilized
volume pertinent to the drainage system and unstable surfaces in
m3 /km2 ).
During the surveys, the areal distribution, the typology, and the
degree of stability of the unconsolidated Quaternary covering were
observed for the purpose of calibrate the indirect analyses, including
the following:
• accelerated erosion processes;
• the remobilization of the partially stabilized scree slopes;
• smaller landslides near the drainage system.
In all cases, the theoretic volume that could potentially be mobilized
in the drainage system was estimated.
The product of this study was a specific cartography of the generating
factors of solid transport with the evaluation of the availability of debris
in the sample basins on a scale of 1:10,000 (Figure 2.5.21).
b) In order to verify the volume that may be deposited on the surface of
the alluvial fan susceptible to greater hazard, a hypothetical deposition
surface was interpolated with reference to three scenarios of increas-
ing intensity. This allowed the evaluation of the degree of caution
used in establishing the hazard borders according to the availability of
sediment verified in the basins (Figure 2.5.22).
The reconstruction of the depositional surfaces is based on the results
of the topographic surveys carried out along the main drainage channels,
with the purpose of specifying the distribution of the real quotas of the
channel bed and the adjacent fan surface. The depositional surfaces were
generated by varying the deposit heights expected in the main drainage
channel in all three hypotheses and subsequently interpolating the new val-
ues areally. In each hypothesis, the estimate of the volumes was obtained
by finding the difference between the current initial reference surface and
the depositional surface generated.
In the example in Figure 2.5.22 (Cant Torrent in the Stura di Demonte
Valley) the volumes that may theoretically be mobilized in the basin in case
of a hypothetical reactivation of significant landslides cannot be contained
within the high and very high hazard surfaces of the alluvial fan; if, how-
ever, we take into account the presence of important solid transport reduc-
tion factors, consisting of the Fedio artificial dam, located downstream
from the most important slope instabilities, and of the low probability of
all the phenomena reactivating simultaneously, the debris volumes effec-
tively mobilized according to a hypothesis that can be assumed as being
highly probable are comparable to an ordinary scenario (a).
2.5.5 CONCLUSIONS
The hazard analysis of alluvial fans was conducted with different levels
of detail, beginning with a linear combination of parameters available
in regional databases (Digital Elevation Model, vegetation features),
integrated with indirect analyses and field surveys intended to collect
Figure 2.5.21 Extract of the

cartography of generating
factors for solid transport with
evaluation of the availability
of debris in the basins.
Figure 2.5.22 Height of the deposits foreseen in the high hazard and very high hazard areas of the alluvial fan
of the Cant Torrent in case of ordinary (a), serious (b), and catastrophic (c) events.
geomorphological information and complete an inventory of the control

measures while measuring critical sections.
At the first level of analysis, for a number of cases typical of the
larger Alpine valleys (100 alluvial fans), the evaluations were supported
by an estimate of the magnitude of flow events through the application of
regional empirical formulas. The application of these formulas requires
physiographical data, an estimate of the GI, and slope stability maps.
A higher level of detail was reached on representative basins for which
a recognisable geological and geomorphological pattern needed to be
extended in more detail throughout the basin in order to identify potential
sources of debris, the effective availability of the debris in the main chan-
nel, the position of eventual intermediary deposition zones, the efficiency
of the defence works and the contribution to the production of sediment
from the landslides and zones susceptible to high erosion rates.
It is important to notice that a certain margin of subjectivity in param-

eterization of the factors that influence hazard is intrinsic to this method,
but does not affect individual parameters (geomorphology, acclivity, veg-
etation, flow conditions), objectively quantifiable in a system of relative
values; in case of attribution of relative weight for the various parameters
some themes should be considered as having more influence on hazard
then others: for this reason it was decided not to attribute relative weights
other than 1 to individual themes.
Even though somewhat inadequate from a rheological point of view,
the method in its detailed section provided a semi-quantitative estimate
of the basin fragility in terms of its propensity to generate torrential mass
transport, while allowing the forecasting of scenarios with different hypo-
thetical intensities through the comparison of the potential debris available
in the basin and the volume of sediment potentially stored in the higher
hazard level areas on the alluvial fan.
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Aulitzky H. (1980), Preliminary two-fold Classification of Torrent. Proc. Int.
Symp. Interpraevent, Bad Ischl, vol. 4, pp. 285–309.
Bianco G. & Franzi L. (2000), Estimation of debris-flow volumes from
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*Ceriani M., Crosta G., Frattini P. & Quattrini S. (2000), Evaluation of hydroge-
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*Ceriani M., Fossati D. & Quattrini S. (1998), Valutazione della peri-
colosità idrogeologica sulle conoide alpine; esempio della metodologia di
Aulitzky applicata al conoide del torrente Re di Gianico – Valcamonica
(BS), Alpi Centrali. Convegno di Idraulica e costruzioni idrauliche, 3, pp.
15–26 (in Italian).
D’agostino V., Cerato M. & Coali R. (1996), Il trasporto solido di eventi estremi
nei torrenti del Trentino Orientale. Proc. Int. Symp. Interprevent 1996, 1,
*ESRI (1998), ArcView, ArcGis, Spatial Analyst, Environmental System
Research Institute inc., Redlands, California, (http://www.esri.com).
*FEMA (1996), Alluvial fan flooding. Federal Emergency Management Agency.
National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
Ghilardi P., Natale L. & Savi F. (1999), Il rischio idraulico nelle aree di conoide.
Quaderni Regionali di Ricerca n. 34. Regione Lombardia. (in Italian).
Hampel R. (1977), Geschiebewirtschaft in Widbächen. Wildbach und Lawinen-
verbau, vol. 41, pp. 3–34 (in German).
*HYDRODATA S.p.A. (2004), Rapporto tecnico sulle attività svolte per conto di
Arpa Piemonte nell’ambito del Progetto CatchRisk, Work Package n◦ 3 Alluvial
fan flooding: Fornitura di consulenza tecnico-scientifica comprendente rilievi
geomorfologici e successive analisi di sintesi finalizzata alla delimitazione delle
aree di conoide a diverso grado di pericolosità in ambiente alpino. Rapporto
interno (in Italian).
Marchi L. &Tecca P.R. (1996), Magnitudo delle colate detriche nelleAlpi Orientali
Italiane. Geoingegneria Ambientale e Mineraria, 33(2/3), pp. 79–86 (in Italian).
Melton M.A. (1965), The geomorphic and paleoclimatic significance of alluvial
deposits in Southern Arizona. J. of Geology, 73, pp. 1–38.
Mizuyama T., Ikeya H. & Imamura R. (1984), Methods for zoning debris flow
vulnerable areas. Int. Symp. on Effects of Forest Land Use on Erosion and
Slope Stability, pp. 281–287.
Perla R., Cheng T. & Mc Clung T. (1980), A two-parameter model of snow
avalanche motion. J. of Glaciology, 26(4), pp. 197–207.
*PROGETTO IFFI (2004), (http://www.webgis.csi.it/arpagis/index.htm; http://
www.apat.gov.it/site/it-IT/Progetti/IFFI/).
*Regione Piemonte (1997), Esame di alcuni dati storici relativi ad eventi allu-
vionali e fenomeni di instabilità naturale nelle valli dei Torrenti Orco e Soana,
Alto Canavese, Provincia di Torino. Quaderno n˚ 7 della Collana informativa
Tecnico-scientifica edita dal Settore Studi e Ricerche Banca Dati Geologica
della Regione Piemonte (in Italian).
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Direzione Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione, p. 120 (in Italian).
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utazione di pericolosità e rischio dei fenomeni naturali e predisposizione di
Piani Comunali di Protezione Civile, Programma Operativo UE Interreg IIC

(in Italian).
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(http://www.regione.piemonte.it/sit/argomenti/difesasuolo /catasto/home. htm).
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Direzione Economia Montana e Foreste, (http://www.regione.piemonte.it/
montagna/foreste/pianifor/home.htm).
Rickenmann D. (1990), Debris flows 1987 in Switzerland: modelling and sedi-
ment transport. International Association of Hydrological Sciences Publ.,
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Rickenmann D. & Koch T. (1997), Comparison of debris flow modelling
approaches. Proc. of First Int. Conf. Debris-Flow Hazard Mitigation: Mechan-
ics, Prediction, and Assessment. ASCE, Cheng Iung Chen (ed), pp. 576–585.
Rickenmann D. & Zimmermann M. (1993), The 1987 debris flows in Switzerland:
documentation and analysis. Geomorphology, vol. 8, pp. 175–189.
Takahashi T., Ashida K. & Sawai K. (1991), Debris Flow. IAHR Monograph,
Balkema, Rotterdam.
Takei A. (1984), Interdependence of sediment budget between individual torrents
and a river system. Int. Symp., Villach, Austria, 2, pp. 35–48.
Voellmy A. (1955), Über die Zerstörungskraft von Lawinen. Schweizerische
Bauzeitung, 73(12), pp. 159–162; (15) pp. 212–217; (17) pp. 246–249; (19)
pp. 280–285 (in German).
Whipple K.X. & Dunne T. (1992), The influence of debris flow rheology on fan
morphology, Owens Valley, California. Geological Society of America Bulletin,
104, pp. 887–900.
2.6 Avalanches
2.6.1 INTRODUCTION
The historical analysis of avalanches and their effects over the past 150
years, carried out through the consultation of archive data, monographs,
and period newspaper articles, has led to the estimation of serious events
in the Piedmontese Alps recurring over every 20–30 years approximately.
2.6.2 AVALANCHES IN THE TERRITORIAL CONTEXT OF

THE PIEDMONTESE ALPS
Historic events with decidedly catastrophic characteristics were those that

occurred in Piemonte during the 19th century, especially in January 1845,
January 1885, and February 1888. During the latter event the quantity of
snow that accumulated over several consecutive days reached the height
of 325 cm of snow on the ground in Oropa (BI), 350 cm in Prali (TO),
432 cm in Entracque (CN), 144 cm in Cuneo (Denza, 1889).
In 1888 avalanches of enormous dimensions resulted in serious dam-
age throughout the Italian Alpine Arc, causing a total of 248 victims. The
most serious damage occurred in mountain zones of an intermediate quota
in that exceptional avalanche phenomena involved many hamlets located
on the slopes and valley bottom, even at altitudes below 1000 meters, that
were densely inhabited at the time.
At the beginning of the 1900’s, a historically significant event tragically
struck the community of Pragelato (TO): an avalanche of huge dimensions
Figure 2.6.1 The Deveis

(Exilles – TO) avalanche
caused the destruction of 14
houses and 39 victims on
January 18th, 1885. Drawing
by Oreste Silvestri (Serra,
1997).
Figure 2.6.2 The avalanches during the month of April 1986 caused heavy damage to road and traffic conditions in
the Sesia and Ossola Valleys.
caused the death of 81 workers in the Beth mines in Val Troncea on April
19, 1904 (Avondo et al., 2003). This event was counted among the most
serious avalanche incidents in modern history because of the number of
victims involved. The occurrence of such exceptionally intense snows
over the regional area today would surely cause fewer victims than it did
in the past. This is due to both the higher level of technological and scien-
tific development over recent decades in the field of short and mid-term
forecasting snow meteorological events and the improvements in commu-
nications and warnings for civil protection purposes. Furthermore, even
the environmental and socio-economic contexts have changed consider-
ably: a more widespread wooded coverage of the slopes in comparison to
the past reduced the amount of land susceptible to the release of avalanches
and the concentration of the population in larger towns of mountain ter-
ritory, which are generally located in low-risk zones, further reduces the
number of people exposed to danger in comparison to the past.
However, the knowledge of the effects of past catastrophic events and
of statistic probability, even if low, that historically significant emergency
situations may in any case repeat themselves in the future, establishes the
Avalanches 203
Figure 2.6.3 The nivometric

stations of the Arpa Piemonte
automatic meteorological
network constitute an
important source of
information on the snow
conditions for the forecasting
of avalanche risk.
need to take the risk of avalanches into consideration when planning for
the use of mountain territory.
Even in relatively recent times, highly intense snowy precipitation
has caused situations of high criticality for the Piedmontese territory. For
example, a significant event that involved mostly the northern sector of
the Piedmontese Alpine Arc in April 1986 caused numerous interruptions
in the road and traffic conditions along main and secondary roads of
the Sesia Valley and the Formazza Valley, luckily without causing any
victims.
On this occasion there was damage to several road and traffic infra-
structures, some of which could be traced to an underestimation of
avalanche risk during the planning phases. One example was the destruc-
tion of the viaduct of the State Highway of Alagna over the Sesia River
in the village of Isolello di Riva Valdobbia (VC) by an enormous ground
avalanche of wet snow.
The sustainable development of human activities in mountain terri-
tories must therefore include the risk assessment of avalanches that may
pose a threat to the structures and infrastructures of the mountain and
tourism economy.
The prevention of this type of risk is possible above all through correct
planning of mountain land use based on two essential requisites:
• the availability of knowledge concerning past avalanches and their
effects, facilitated by the use of a Geographic Information System that
allows quick and efficient access;
• the application of scientific criteria in outlining the dangerous zones
through the use of models for calculating avalanche dynamics or
historical-statistical analysis tools.
The Region of Piemonte boasts advanced regulations in the planning
of land use in mountain territories, as outlined in Regional Law 56/1977
Land preservation and use (Tutela ed uso del suolo), and regarding the
aspects of hydrogeological, hydraulic, and avalanche risk prevention, by
the P.G.R. (President of the Regional Administration) Circular n. 7/LAP of
May 8th, 1996, Technical guidelines for the elaboration of geological stud-
ies to support urban planning tools (Specifiche tecniche per l’elaborazione
degli studi geologici a supporto degli strumenti urbanistici). The principle
behind these regulations is that of a balanced and sustainable development
of the territory through the development of construction and infra-
structures following an adequate assessment of the natural risks and the
application of prevention and protection provisions for their minimization.
Over the past twenty years the Regions and the Autonomous Provinces
of the Italian Alpine Arc have been coordinating their efforts to improve
avalanche forecasting services and the public information services for
the prevention of avalanche incidents following the 1983 institution of the
AINEVA (Associazione Interregionale Neve eValanghe), or Inter-regional
Snow and Avalanche Association, in which Arpa Piemonte represents the
Region of Piemonte in the Association’s Directive Technical Committee.
The results of this collaboration between the technical structures of the
individual Regional and Provincial Administrations specialised in activ-
ities related to the prevention of avalanche risk, are above all the adoption
of shared methodologies for actuating provisions and verification of snow
cover analyses, of standards for their elaboration, and the diffusion of
snow-weather information to the public. Moreover, the association plays
a leading role in the diffusion of knowledge in the field of snow science
through the publication of the four-monthly journal “Neve e Valanghe”
(Snow and Avalanches) and in the field of professional training in snow
science on a national level.
The forecasting of avalanche hazard constitutes a determining element
in the prevention of avalanche risk and is actuated on two territorial levels:
regional and local.
On a regional level, Arpa Piemonte contributes with the issuing of a
three-weekly snow bulletin recognised as a forecasting instrument within
the Piedmontese Civil Protection warning system, managed by the Cen-
tro Funzionale according to the operative guidelines provided by the
D.P.C.M. (President of the Ministerial Council Decree) of February 27th,
2004.
Avalanches 205
Figure 2.6.4 The avalanche

hazard bulletin for the Region
of Piemonte.
The regional snow bulletin is edited according to short and mid-term

meteorological forecasts and the snow data acquired from the auto-
matic regional network, from the manual observatory network, from
survey results, stratigraphic analyses of the snow cover, and snow cover
stability tests.
The bulletin contains information on the snow cover (average depth
of the cover at 2000 metres, distribution of the cover, quantity of new
snow), on snow cover conditions (stratigraphy, consolidation, identifi-
cation of elements that may lead to the release of an avalanche), on the
degree of avalanche hazard (type and dimensions of the avalanches that
have fallen or are expected, identification of hazard zones), and on the

evolution during the successive 24–48 hours. The degree of danger is
established according to the definition of the European Avalanche Danger
Scale, which is unified and differentiated by 7 geographic areas in the
Piedmontese Alpine Arc.
On a local level, the technical support to the Mayor in carrying out
his institutional tasks in order to guarantee public safety in avalanche
hazard situations is the responsibility of the Local Avalanche Com-
mission, instituted by the Mountain Communities as per Article 40
Difesa dalle valanghe (Defence from Avalanches) of Regional Law
02/07/1999, n. 16, Testo unico delle leggi sulla montagna (Unified
Code of Laws concerning Mountains), “for the actuation of snow phe-
nomena controls and for the purpose of indicating avalanche hazard
on towns or inhabited nuclei, public works and facilities, or public
infrastructures.”
The corresponding regulation, enacted by P.G.R. Decree n. 4R of
June 7th, 2002, Modalità costitutive e di funzionamento delle Commis-
sioni Locali Valanghe (Constitutive and Functional Modalities of Local
Avalanche Commissions), assigns Arpa Piemonte, by virtue of the transfer
of function as provided for by Regional Law 28/2002, the responsibility
of providing technical-scientific support to the Local Avalanche Com-
mission for the adoption of standard operative methodologies on regional
territories for the availability of snow and meteorological data.
2.6.3 THEMATIC AVALANCHE CARTOGRAPHY FOR LAND

USE PLANNING
2.6.3.1 Maps of probable avalanche locations

The knowledge of the difficulties related to the verification of avalanches
in mountain territories is of fundamental importance for technical bodies
of the Public Administration occupied on the various levels of planning
and management of the Alpine territory.
The Carte di Localizzazione Probabile delle Valanghe (CLPV) (Maps
of ProbableAvalanche Locations) constitute a synthetic cartographic prod-
uct of an avalanche knowledge base as effectuated by the Region and the
Autonomous Provinces belonging to AINEVA, according to a method-
ology that was shared and elaborated at the beginning of the 1970’s by the
French National Geographic Institute. This product was adopted as a refer-
ence document for the realization of follow-up in-depth studies finalized
at planning the use of mountain territories.
CLPVs are the integrated product of desk study through photo-
interpretation and field surveys on the territory in question, including
interviews and local testimony, the researching of archive data (parish
Avalanches 207
Figure 2.6.5 Excerpt from a

Map of Probable Avalanche
Locations.
archives, forestry archives, town and editorial archives). The work was
carried out in three consequential phases:
• identification of avalanche sites by means of photo-interpretation and
summer aerial photograms;
• carrying out field surveys on the territory being studied and the
collection of oral testimony;
• verification of land data with historical information from archives and
bibliographies.
The CLPV reports the borders of avalanche sites, or the areas sus-
ceptible to simultaneous and sudden movement of the snow pack in the
maximum extension known at the time of drawing the map, even if this
border refers to events that occurred in past epochs and with high return
times of even more than 100 years.
Analytical files are compiled that report the topographical and mor-
phological data of the three areas that characterise each avalanche site: the
release zone, the run out zone, and the stopping zone. The description of
damages ascertained with the relative data of occurrence, as well as the
defence works actuated (represented also in the thematic map with specific
symbols), complete the characterisation of the site, together with eventual
photographic, journalistic, or technical documentation. Up until about
twenty years ago, the only example of an organic collection of archived
data on avalanches in Piemonte was the Archivio Storico-Topografico delle
Valanghe in Italia (Historical-Topographical Archive of Avalanches in
Italy) (Capello, 1977, 1980) for the territory of the Provinces of Cuneo
and Torino.
More or less at the same time as the birth of the Regional Nivometric
Service (Servizio Nivometrico Regionale) in 1983, on the occasion of
major precipitations, a permanent survey was initiated on avalanches in
Piemonte. These studies were structured around the use of special forms
standardised for the whole Alpine Arc as part of the inter-regional coor-
dination carried out by AINEVA (Model 7) and recorded by collaborators
of the regional nivometric network.
Figure 2.6.6 The Avalanche Information System shared by Arpa Piemonte and the Province of Torino.
In 1993, the Meteo-hydrographic Sector of the Region of Piemonte

began the realisation of the CLPV on a scale of 1:25,000 in collaboration
with the Soil Conservation Service of the Province of Torino and the
Cartographic Service of the Province of Cuneo.
In order to further detail the knowledge base of avalanches from a
distant past, a survey of the archives of local newspapers from the province
of Torino for the period 1885–1951 (Tomasuolo, 2001) was carried out;
the study resulted in the census of 203 historic avalanches associated with
162 different sites. The information extracted from the newspaper articles
of that time allowed the validation of the border of known avalanche sites
and, in many cases, increased the data base relative to events and damage
produced by the avalanches, even if in many cases it was not possible to
deduce the areal extension of the avalanches with precision from reading
the articles. The information obtained from thematic cartography and
documents are available in the Avalanche Information System, produced
with the collaboration of the Soil Conservation Service of the Province of
Torino and can be consulted on the Arpa Piemonte web site.
Avalanches 209
2.6.3.2 Hazard maps

The adoption of risk mitigation measures in urbanized areas calls for
progressively in-depth studies, beginning with the representation of as
much historical data as possible concerning avalanches.
The availability of a registry of past avalanches and its synthesis in a
CLPV is considered to be the first step in a progressive process for refin-
ing prevention tools in the context of territorial planning. This level of
detail is appropriate on the planning scale of Territorial Plans and con-
stitutes the methodological base, for example, for the drafting of the
Hydraulic and Hydrogeological Risk Atlas attached to the Master Plan
for the Hydrogeological Safeguard (PAI, or Piano Stralcio per l’Assetto
Idrogeologico) adopted by the Po River Basin Authority with Resolution
of the Institutional Committee n. 18 on April 26th, 2001.
A correct and detailed evaluation of the interaction between avalanches
and forecasts to be used in local urban planning must be based on the
elaboration of specific studies aimed at outlining the areas with different
degrees of exposure to avalanche hazard to be effectuated during the pre-
liminary phases of drafting the General Municipal Regulatory Plan. The
identification of the perimeters is generally done with reference to the
frequency and intensity of the phenomena considered.
Over the past four years, AINEVA has, through an agreement stipu-
lated with the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the University of
Padua and in collaboration with Arpa Piemonte, promoted research ori-
ented towards the definition of the scientific criteria for identifying the
perimeter of the zones at risk of avalanches as a support for the legislation
pertinent to regional territorial planning.
The research resulted in the publication of two specific documents:
Linee di indirizzo per la gestione del pericolo di valanghe nella piani-
ficazione territoriale (Guidelines for avalanche risk management in
territorial planning) and Criteri per la perimetrazione e l’utilizzo delle
aree soggette al pericolo di valanghe (Criteria for identifying the perim-
eters and the use of areas at risk of avalanches), approved by the AINEVA
Assembly respectively on February 23rd, 2001 and June 19th, 2002.
These two specific documents, which defined the framework of the
various phases of urban and territorial planning, were later supplemented
by the Linee guida metodologiche per la perimetrazione delle aree esposte
al pericolo di valanghe (Methodological guidelines for identifying the
perimeters of the areas exposed to the risk of avalanches), which developed
the technical-engineering aspects of the process while providing criteria
for the elaboration of detailed studies aimed at the drafting of Piani delle
zone esposte a valanga (Plans for zones exposed to avalanches) (Barbolini
et al., 2004a).
The document entitled Criteri per la perimetrazione e l’utilizzo delle
aree soggette al pericolo di valanghe defines the criteria adopted for out-
lining the perimeters of the areas exposed and suggests the most suitable
categories of potential use with a view to urban planning. The defining of

the different degrees of exposure to hazard, expressed essentially through
the parameters of return time of the avalanche and its impact pressure,
results in the outlining (even if temporary and subject to potential con-
tinual updating) of the areas subjected to avalanches, through the use of
mathematical models supported by historical and land data. The outlining
of areas subjected to different hazards therefore becomes a fundamental
instrument for defining the correct land usage system as part of the draft-
ing of urban planning tools for mountain communities, and consequently,
of Municipal Civil Protection Plans. The classification proposed calls for
the defining of three zones of decreasing hazard.
Figure 2.6.7 Example of

boundaries of different
avalanche hazard areas
obtained by the analysis of
historic and land data and
with the application of an
avalanche dynamics
simulation model.
Red Zone (high risk)

Red zones (zones of high risk) are those portions of the territory that can
be impacted by avalanches with a certain frequency, even if with modest
destructive potential, or more rarely by highly destructive avalanches. In
particular, a portion of territory is attributed to the red zone when there is
a possibility of:
• frequent avalanches (for which a conventional return time equal to 30
years is used as a reference) that cause pressure equal or greater than
3 kPa;
• rare avalanches (for which a conventional return time equal to 100 years
is used as a reference) that cause pressure equal or greater than 15 kPa.
Only one of these two conditions is in itself sufficient to attribute

the portion of territory in question to the red zone; for such areas, the
Avalanches 211
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
P (kPa)
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 290 300
T (anni)
Figure 2.6.8 Representation of the different hazard zones according to frequency and impact pressure of a design
avalanche (Barbolini, personal communication).
application of urban planning restrictions for areas subjected to building

bans is advised.
Blue Zone (moderate risk)

Blue zones (zones of moderate risk) are those portions of the territory
that can be impacted by the residual effects of avalanches with a certain
frequency, or more rarely by moderately destructive avalanches. In par-
ticular, a portion of territory is attributed to the blue zone when there is a
possibility of:
• frequent avalanches (for which a conventional return time equal to 30
years is used as reference) that cause pressure less than 3 kPa;
• rare avalanches (for which a conventional return time equal to 100 years
is used as a reference) that cause pressure between 3 and 15 kPa.
Only one of these two conditions is in itself sufficient to attribute
the portion of territory in question to the blue zone; for such areas, the
application of restrictions for urban planning and building is advised.
Yellow zone (low risk)

Yellow zones (zones of low risk) are those portions of the territory that
can rarely be impacted by the residual effects of avalanches. In particular,
a portion of territory is attributed to the yellow zone when there is the
possibility that it produces rare avalanches (for which a conventional return
time equal to 100 years is used as a reference) that cause pressure of less
than 3 kPa.
A yellow classification will also be assigned to portions of the territory
involved in the stopping of avalanches of exceptional occurrence (those
for which an indicative return time of 300 years used as a reference). For
such areas, building may be allowed with some reservations.
2.6.4 MITIGATION MEASURES FOR AVALANCHE RISK

IN THE PLANNING AND USE OF MOUNTAIN
TERRITORIES
In dealing with problems related to avalanche risk and the outlining of

relative mitigation measures, it is better to introduce some terminological
and conceptual definitions that identify some structural and non-structural
prevention measures, the role of short and mid-term forecasting, the sub-
jects involved in the various scales of the warning system (from a regional
level to that of a single town or a portion of it – for example, ski facilities),
the necessary education for acting when confronted with risk, and finally,
some aspects concerning regulations related to the specific problem.
Prevention includes all the measures adopted before the risk arises, in
order to diminish, avoid, or mitigate the damages expected as a conse-
quence of the occurrence in question. These are long term measures and
generally imply adequate territorial planning and management according
to the results obtained from a propaedeutic project (which was extensively
discussed in the previous section) that essentially amounts to the elabor-
ation of a zoning of risk for areas exposed to avalanches. These measures
back up and follow structural actions (works of classical engineering,
soil bio-engineering, improvements in forest management, etc.) or non-
structural actions (legislation and regulations on land use in risk zones,
civil protection plans, risk management plans in ski facilities, etc.). Until
recently, structural measures in inhabited centres and along major traffic
arteries was the most common solution sustained by a culture unwilling
to coexist with, and therefore to manage, such risks (for example through
temporary suspension of ski-lift facility operations or temporary closing
of roadways, etc.) and that aim instead at radical solutions, even if much
more costly.
In recent years, especially abroad, a more ecological line of inter-
vention based on risk management through a balance of structural and
non-structural measures has become more common in dealing with ski
facilities and road infrastructures, with the possibility of actively interven-
ing through the programmed release of snow masses during the preventive
closure of areas at risk following the development of critical situations.
Prevention therefore implies actions related to the identification and
in-depth characterisation of the phenomena and the outlining of areas
Avalanches 213
that may potentially be involved (CLPV, Plan for Zones Exposed to

Avalanches, Local and Territorial Urban Planning, etc.), to national and
regional legislation, to specific sector regulations (limitations for land use
in areas at risk, Civil Protection Plans, regulations regarding the ski-lift
facility safety, etc.), and to parallel structural measures (active and passive
defence works) that can be actuated to mitigate risk.
With regards to the role of Arpa Piemonte avalanche structures, fore-
casting instead refers to a series of operations that, according to the
recording of the phenomena that involve the territorial region and the
short and mid-term meteorological forecasts, results in the publication of
regional avalanche risk forecast bulletins.
2.6.4.1 Ski slopes and lift facilities

In the case of ski facilities, which represent a fundamental element from
a socio-economic and tourism point of view for various Piedmontese
Alpine valleys, below is an overview of the principal national and regional
regulations that define the avalanche safety requirements for cableway
installations:
• Ministerial Decree 04/08/1998, n. 400 of August 4th, 1998. Regola-
mento generale per le funicolari aeree e terrestri in servizio pubblico
destinate al trasporto di persone (General regulation for air and land
cableway installations for the transport of persons for public use);
• Ministerial Decree n. 392 of December 5th, 2003, Regolamento con-
cernente modifica dell’art.7 del D.M. 4 agosto 1998, n. 400 (Regulation
concerning the modification of Article 7 of Ministerial Decree n. 400
of August 4th, 1998);
• Regional Law dated December 14th, 1989. Disciplina degli impianti
funiviari in servizio pubblico per il trasporto di persone (Regula-
tions for public service cableway installations for the transport of
persons);
• Decree n. 13/R of the P.G.R., dated November 29th, 2004, Regola-
mento regionale relativo alle procedure per l’approvazione dei progetti
per la realizzazione di nuovi impianti a fune e per l’ammodernamento
di impianti esistenti da parte delle comunità montane (Regional reg-
ulation concerning the approval procedure for cableway installation
construction projects and for the modernisation of existing installations
by mountain communities).
With regards to components relative to the stability of the slopes and
the environmental compatibility of the interventions, new regional regu-
lations, including actuation provisions that define conformity standards
for ski lift and ski slope installations are applied. These include: Regional
Law 09/08/1989, n. 45 concerning interventions to be carried out in lands
subject to hydrogeological restrictions, Regional Law 14/12/1998, n. 40
with provisions concerning the environmental compatibility and assess-
ment procedures, Regional Law 05/12/1977, n. 56, and P.G.R. Circular
Figure 2.6.9 A steel snow-fence to defend a lift facility from avalanches in the Rio Nero Valley in the Town of Cesana
Torinese (Via Lattea ski district).
n. 7/LAP 08/05/1996 regarding technical specifications for the elabora-

tion of geological studies to support the drafting of Municipal General
Zoning Plans.
The various regulations define a somewhat detailed and complex legi-
slative framework with a view to different objectives, primarily that of
guaranteeing the safety of persons, property, and infrastructures while
never losing sight of the need to preserve slope stability and optimize the
compatibility of the works within the Alpine environmental context.
In the preliminary procedure for obtaining authorization for the real-
ization and operation of new cableway installations, the recent Ministerial
Decree n. 392 of December 5th, 2003 states that conditions “for immunity
from avalanche risk, or the efficiency of the proposed interventions” must
be verified by competent authorities.
For this reason, those who make such proposals must program defence
works to avoid the possibility of avalanches impacting the fixed struc-
tural elements of the installation during the planning phase; this refers
Avalanches 215
Figure 2.6.10 Active

avalanche defence works
and gas blasters for
programmed release of
avalanches (indicated with
red circles) on the NE slope
of Monte Fraiteve (Via Lattea
ski district).
to all types of active structural interventions (stabilization of the snow

cover, snow nets, snow fences, etc.) or passive types (deviation dams or
wedges, etc.) that impede the mass from reaching man-made structures.
The innovation introduced by Ministerial Decree 392/03 is the alterna-
tive of actuating active measures of risk management, consisting of the
controlled release of snowy masses that in any case must not reach the
fixed structural elements of the installation. If ever the risk of avalanches
should involve only the borderline of the facility and not the actual struc-
tural element, the temporary closure (prevention measure) of the facility
is allowed until the high risk situation has passed.
If conditions call for the actuation of risk management measures
through the preventive closure of the facilities and programmed release, a
Safety Management Plan that identifies the operative procedures and the
safeguards to be taken and an eventual Intervention Plan for the Artifi-
cial Release of Avalanches (PIDAV – Piano di Intervento per il Distacco
Artificiale di Valanghe) must be written and approved.
The Safety Management Plan must be actuated by personnel certified
in the issues related to the role they are called upon to play within the safety
plan: this qualification must be issued byAINEVA or by specialised Italian
or foreign institutions.
The Region of Piemonte does not yet have a law that regulates the safety
of ski slopes, including that concerning avalanche risk, even if the relative
Council Commission is discussing a bill that, among other things, should
absorb and enact the recent law L. 24/12/2003, n. 363 Norme in materia di
sicurezza nella pratica degli sport invernali da discesa e da fondo (Safety
regulations for practicing downhill and cross-country winter sports).
Figure 2.6.11
Snow-meteorological surveys
for local forecasting of
avalanche hazard.
Preliminary procedures concerning the verification phase, accord-

ing to Article 10 of Regional Law 40/1998, Disposizioni concernenti la
compatibilità ambientale e le procedure di valutazione (Regulations con-
cerning environmental compatibility and assessment procedures), for ski
slope projects of a total length of 1,500 metres also analyse the safety
aspects of the work, especially in relation to avalanche risk.
In particular situations and with sufficient technical motivations, for
example where the adoption of fixed structural works would be too costly
or have an excessive impact on the landscape, avalanche safety on ski
slopes may also be guaranteed through management measures, as have
been implemented for several years in France and in the Autonomous
Avalanches 217
Province of Trento, and which are provided for in the implemental regu-
lation of Provincial Law 21/04/1987 Disciplina delle linee funiviarie in
servizio pubblico e delle piste da sci (Regulation of cableway installations
for public service and for ski slopes).
The Safety Management Plan is based on the continual monitoring
of meteorological and snow cover conditions in the ski district for local
forecasting of avalanche risk and the application of suitable procedures
for the preventative closure of the slopes under critical conditions.
An operative job description defines the procedures for the acquisition
of daily snow science-meteorological data to be carried out by specialised
personnel or acquired by automatic nivometrical stations; in these cases
nivometric poles may be installed in the sectors susceptible to avalanche
release for a remote reading of the height of the snow cover.
The need for the preventative closure of ski slopes at risk and their
successive reopening is established by the safety manager through the
adoption of scientific reference material (critical precipitation levels, wind
activity, temperature, etc.) and other information (stability tests, effects
of eventual artificial release with explosives).
In many cases the management of an avalanche risk safety plan is also
backed by the operative support of programmed avalanche release.
The programmed release of avalanches can be carried out with diverse
systems, from the more traditional ones with classic explosives to more
innovative ones that use gaseous substances (hydrogen or propane, mixed
with oxygen) that are easier to use in that they are not subjected to safety
regulations for transport and application.
This latter system consists of the high-quota installation of remote-
controlled release mechanisms; the plan for using these devices requires
a rigorous safety procedure to avoid the risk of accidents and a model
study of avalanche dynamics in order to evaluate the operative modes and
timing that allow the triggering of the release under optimal conditions
according to the height of the snow, which in turn allows the analyses of
avalanche stopping distances and eventual effects. An in-depth review of
the programmed avalanche release theory and the various systems being
used is given in Cresta (2002).
An example of the application of avalanche safety management pro-
cedures is represented by the case of the ski district of Belvedere in
Macugnaga (VB). The typically Alpine morphological characteristics of
the eastern slope of the Monte Rosa Massif considerably condition tourism
during the winter, when even very large avalanches may strike the area.
In 1991, the Region of Piemonte commissioned the Snow Science
Division of the CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole,
du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forets) of Grenoble (France) to carry out
a specific study entitled Study of the avalanche risks on the ski district
west of Macugnaga (Buisson & Charlier, 1993), which resulted in the
development of avalanche risk scenarios for lift facilities and ski slopes
located in the area of Pecetto-Burki-Belvedere.
Figure 2.6.12 Direct snow

cover stability test
(Rutschblock).
This study included the analysis of potentially feasible solutions to

guarantee the operational safety of ski district facilities by specifically
evaluating the possible alternatives between structural interventions and
risk management procedures through programmed avalanche release
similar to systems implemented in comparable contexts in France. The
realization of active defence structures (snow nets or bridges) resulted as
not being feasible from technical and economical points of view for the
extension of the release area to be developed and for the presence of areas
with glacial coverings on which it is not possible to build.
According to these restrictions and analogous experiences conducted
for some time in France, CEMAGREF technicians prospect the actuation
of risk management procedures through the preventive closing of the ski
district, carried out according to scientific criteria based on the acquisition
and analysis of snow science and meteorological data, snow cover stability
tests, and observations by a team of qualified experts to be nominated by
the managing Company.
Since 1993 until today, an Avalanche Safety Plan that constitutes an
integral part of the ski lift operations regulations has been actuated in
the western ski district of Macugnaga. This plan is based on specific
provisions as indicated by the results of the above mentioned study and
defined by Arpa Piemonte. In order to back up the Plan Management,
another actuation of a PIDAV is being planned, thanks to the installation
of four gas blasters in quota and the use of explosives transported by
helicopter for interventions on slopes with critical snow conditions.
Avalanches 219
Figure 2.6.13 Effect of a powder snow avalanche fallen from Cima Jazzi on a larch wood at Burki,
Macuganaga (VB) Photo by R. Cresta.
2.6.5 A CASE STUDY: THE RISK OF AVALANCHES ALONG

THE ROADWAYS OF THE UPPER SUSA AND
CHISONE VALLEYS
2.6.5.1 Scope
In order to support the activities of the Safety Planning Group for the
2006 XX Winter Olympic Games in Torino, instituted by the Prefecture
of Torino, within which the Civil Protection Service of the Province of
Torino was responsible for defining the risk scenario following intense
and prolonged snowfalls, the Arpa Piemonte Regional Forecasting and
Environmental Monitoring Area carried out an avalanche risk study on
the roadways and transportation system in the Olympic area.
The study constituted a detailed consolidation of the knowledge base
for avalanche phenomena represented in the CLPV of the Upper Susa
Valley and the Upper Chisone Valley and contained in the Avalanche
Information System shared by Arpa Piemonte and the Province of Torino.
It represented a contribution from a viewpoint of managing a situation
of critical snowfall – meteorological conditions that may have caused
avalanches on access roads to the Olympic Alpine area. In consideration of
the strategic importance that mobility played in the context of the Olympics
(held February 10th–26th, 2006) and the Paralympics (held March
10th–19th, 2006), the results of the study were aimed at identifying
stretches of transport routes along the bottom of the valley exposed
to avalanches if there should be critical snowfall conditions. This was
done through opportune elaborations of the available knowledge of past
avalanches and the morphological conditions of the territory with a view
to avalanche release.
The scenarios that were derived can be used to assist the agencies and
authorities responsible for traffic safety in optimising the preventive trans-
portation route closing procedures and the safeguarding measures to be
implemented in order to guarantee public safety with a secondary view of
rapidly recovering use of the road network once the emergency situation
has passed.
This study was carried out with another secondary objective of evalu-
ating the site-by-site applicability of programmed avalanche release
procedures with either conventional explosives or helicopter transport
innovations. The adoption of programmed release systems, where feasible,
would facilitate emergency management.
2.6.5.2 The study area

The study area was within the Alpine sector of the 2006 Torino Win-
ter Olympic Games and focused especially on the mountain territories
susceptible to avalanches (Figure 2.6.14).
More specifically, the valleys studied were:
• Upper Chisone Valley, from the municipal territory of Roure as far as
that of Sestriere;
• Upper Susa Valley, territory upstream of Salbertrand, in the Cesana and
the Bardonecchia Dora River Basins.
Figure 2.6.14 Identification of

the mountain territory of the
2006 Torino Winter Olympic
Games, object of the study.
Avalanches 221
Only avalanche sites that interfere with the transport network that were
strategic during the Olympic period and within the portions of these valleys
indicated were studied.
2.6.5.3 The methodology

The work was organised according to a classical scientific methodology.
The first phase consisted of the bibliographic collection of documentary
and cartographic data from the archives of the Arpa Piemonte Regional
Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area.
The historic data were collected mostly from the Historic-Topographic
Archive of Italian Avalanches (Capello, 1980) and a specific study carried
out on local newspaper articles from the period (Tomasuolo, 2001). The
1:25,000 scale CLPV of the communities involved were referred to as
thematic cartography.
The second phase consisted of a land survey campaign, site by site, to
verify and eventually correct past data and to collect data on avalanche sites
not yet known or not sufficiently characterised by the bibliography. This
phase was also supported by the collection of oral testimony, in particular
from personnel involved in the removal of snow from the roadway network,
in order to optimise the outlining of the perimeter and characterise the
frequency of phenomena on each individual avalanche site. Together with
the land survey, a stereoscopic photo interpretative analysis of colour
aerial photographs from 1979 and 2000 was carried out.
The third phase consists of the graphic and conceptual elaboration
of the data collected during the first two phases. The attribution of
each individual site to a class of probability (high, moderate, or low)
of avalanche release under specific critical threshold snowfall conditions
was defined according to the geomorphological, topographical, and plant
covering features of the site. The evaluations carried out were verified
through a comparison with the available historical documentation and
with the effects of a moderately critical snowfall, which, during early
March 1993, caused avalanches of a certain importance on the road-
ways of the Chisone Valley and the effects of which were recorded in
detail.
The objective assessment of the land inclination values in order to
identify the potential release areas was obtained through the elaboration
of 10 metre grids with the Digital Elevation Model realized by Arpa
Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Research. The
use of ESRI© ArcGis software allowed the subdivision of the study area
into classes of significant slope (Figure 2.6.16). The areas susceptible to
release, or with slopes between 28◦ and 60◦ , were later examined with
orthophoto maps from the Regional Technical Map to verify the presence
of tree coverings, allowing the identification of zones where the tree cov-
ering guarantees the stability of the snow covering from those areas where
the retention of the snow cover is negligible or inexistent.
METHODOLOGY
1 PRELIMINARY STEP
- COLLECTION OF:
• HISTORICAL DATA
• BIBLIOGRAPHY
• MAPS
• SNOW-METEOROLOGICAL DATA
- STEREOSCOPIC PHOTO INTERPRETATIVE ANALYSIS
2 LAND SURVEY
- VALIDATION OF PAST DATA
- MORPHOLOGICAL AND VEGETATIONAL SURVEY
- CATALOGUE OF PROTECTION WORKS
- CATALOGUE OF AVALANCHES DAMAGES
- COLLECTION OF ORAL TESTIMONY
3 DATA ELABORATION
- STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SNOW-METEOROLOGICAL DATA
- MODELLING AVALANCHES
- AVALANCHE SITES MAPPING
- ANALYSIS OF SNOWFALL CONDITIONS VS AVALANCHES PAST
EFFECTS RELATION
- ASSESSMENT OF RISK SCENARIOS
Figure 2.6.15 Scheme of the ATTRIBUTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SITE TO A CLASS OF PROBABILITY
methodology implemented.
Figure 2.6.16 Excerpt of the

slope map for the study area,
discriminated with an
algorithm applied in ESRI©
ArcGis.
Avalanches 223
Maximal Pressure of Simulation
120
1600
100
Max Pressure (kPa)

Height (m asl)
1500 80
1400 60
40
1300
20
1200
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Track width (m)
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Projected Track Length (m)
Figure 2.6.17 Output of a simulated model obtained with AVAL-1D software for calculating the run out distance of
an avalanche.
The morphological tendency of individual release areas to function as

sites where snow drifts accumulate in relation to the vicinity to the main
crests or secondary watersheds that may influence the dynamics of the
transport and the drifts was considered as an aggravating element in the
site risk rating. Risk assessment is intended as the expected recurrence
of avalanches and not their magnitude, which was not considered as a
differentiating element in identifying stretches of roadways at risk of being
interrupted. Other parameters considered in the assessment of potential
avalanche sites and the long distance run out of the snow mass are the
roughness of the land and the transversal geometry of the slope, or its
degree of channelling and the tortuosity of the track channels.
In case of doubtful interpretation in areas where the moderate slope and
the linear development of the deposition area of the avalanche impeded,
due to scarce historical data or the semi-quantitative assessment, a reliable
definition of involvement of the transportation system in an avalanche and
the snow cover conditions, recourse was made to a modelling of avalanche
dynamics through the use of a one-dimensional mathematical model to
identify the stopping distances of an avalanche in order to calculate the
height of the snow at the release point. The AVAL-1D dynamic numerical
calculation program used was developed by Davos by the Federal Institute
for Snow and Avalanches (Christen et al., 2002), allows the calculation
Avalanche n.
Topographic map
Pictures
General description
Province
Municipality
Place
Site denomination
Basin
Morphometric features
Max height of release (m asl)
Min height of stopping (m asl)
Difference in level (m)
Real length (m)
Real area (m2)
Release zone
Position
Morphology
Bedrock
Max length (m)
Max width (m)
Mean inclination (°)
Aspect (°)
Real area (m2)
Run out zone
Position
Morphology
Bedrock
Profile
Planimetric profile
Stopping zone
Position
Morphology
Buildings
Presence of evidences
Defense works
Typology
Possible defense works
Typology
Damages
Figure 2.6.18 Avalanche site Sure
information form. Potential
of the run out distance, speed, and pressure of the both dense and pow-
dery type avalanches. According to the results obtained, it is possible to
distinguish situations that present greater uncertainty through a critical
and careful assessment of the modelling results.
2.6.5.4 Cartographic documentation

Each individual avalanche studied was graphically represented in a Geo-
graphic Information System with ESRI© ArcView software to allow the
management of all the existing georeferenced documentation for a single
site in one single information system. The study led to the identifica-
tion and characterisation of about 60 avalanche sites that interfere with
mountain roadway and traffic systems of Olympic interest.
Avalanches 225
The cartographic elaboration was done on a scale of 1:10,000 (with an

overall framework on a scale of 1:25,000): each avalanche site mapped
was defined with a limit and characterised with a specific colour.
A descriptive form that includes the geographic, morphological, and
dimensional characteristics was completed for each site; furthermore,
each description form also includes, when possible, the data relative to
the damage caused by the avalanches (date of the event, detail of dam-
ages, eventual injuries and/or victims). Each form is subdivided into fields
completed with a series of codified definitions.
The photographic documentation consists of some photographs with
captions that describe the different zones of each avalanche site and the
documented damage in detail (when possible).
2.6.5.5 The map of probability of exposure of the transport

system to avalanches
The Map of Probability of Exposure of the Roads to Avalanches (Carta
di Probabilità di Esposizione della Viabilità alle Valanghe) is a thematic
cartographic document drawn on a scale of 1:25,000 (with details on a
scale of 1:5,000 and/or 1:10,000) on a topographic base of the Regional
Technical Map.
Each avalanche site mapped is characterised with a specific colour –
red, orange, or yellow – according to the legend found in Figure 2.6.19.
The three classes of risk, intended in this case as a degree of probability that
the avalanche will involve major roads and transportation systems under
specific critical snow conditions, are compared to an event with daily
snowfall equal to 60–80 cm. This snowfall can be characterised, according
to statistical analysis of climatic series referred to four nivometric stations
in the Olympic area, with a return time (Tr) of decades. In other words,
each class is compared to an event that has a 10% probability of occurring
annually in this area.
In the elaboration of the study, such values were considered as thresh-
olds that identify critical snow conditions for the triggering of spontaneous
avalanche activity; the three classes of risk defined in this way allow
the identification of roadway and traffic sectors that are more exposed
to the risk of avalanches. During critical threshold snowfall, these sec-
tors should be immediately subjected to a preventive closing to traffic
while monitoring and assessment of the stability of the snow cover is
carried out.
The objective of the study was therefore to outline a scenario of moder-
ate criticality for road and traffic conditions in the Olympic area in relation
to avalanche risk, to define the snow conditions comparable to those that
occurred during an intense snowfall early in March 1993, for which there
exists detailed information concerning avalanches that occurred along the
ex-State Highway n. 23 in the Chisone Valley.
Avalanche site with high probability of involving major

roads under specific critical snow conditions (daily
snowfall equal to 60-80 cm)
Avalanche site with moderate probability of involving

major roads under specific critical snow conditions
(daily snowfall equal to 60-80 cm)
Avalanche site with low probability of involving major

roads under specific critical snow conditions (daily
snowfall equal to 60-80 cm)
Avalanche site not involving major roads under

specific critical snow conditions (daily snowfall equal to
60-80 cm), in Map of Probable Avalanche Locations
Figure 2.6.19 Excerpt of thematic Map of Probability of Exposure of the Roads to Avalanches on orthophoto
paper.
Avalanches 227
Figure 2.6.20 Avalanche sites on the ex-State Highway n. 23 in the Val Chisone.
2.6.6 CONCLUSIONS
The functions and competencies of the Arpa Piemonte-Regional Fore-

casting and Environmental Monitoring Area cover the various sectors
concerning the prevention of avalanche risk.
The management of the regional nivometric network, consisting of
more than 70 automatic teletransmission stations and 40 station managed
manually, allows continual monitoring of the snow science-meteorological
conditions of the entire Piedmontese Alpine Arc.
The forecasting of avalanche risk on the regional territory constitutes
a public information service that frequents the mountain territory during
the winter and constitutes an important element of the regional warning
system managed by the regional Centro Funzionale in compliance with
the D.P.C. (Decree of the Prime Minister) provision dated February 27,
2004.
In the same context of prevention, Arpa Piemonte provides technical-
scientific support for the prevention activities carried out by the Local
Avalanche Commissions instituted by the Mountain Communities in com-
pliance with Article 40 of the Regional Law n. 16/1999, in their function
of controlling snowfall phenomena in order to signal avalanche risk for
urban centres or hamlets, public works and facilities, or infrastructures.
The realisation and continual updating of the shared Avalanche Infor-
mation System makes all the information concerning known avalanche
sites on regional territory available, representing the knowledge synthe-
sized in the cartography or the archive documentation for each site on
different informative layers.
The knowledge of avalanches in the Information System offers an
updated overview of the problems that may interfere with the use of moun-
tain territory, either during the planning phase or during the adoption of
protection measures for the construction of buildings or infrastructures.
The interaction with analogous technical structures of the regions or
the autonomous provinces of the Italian Alpine Arc belonging to AINEVA
allow reciprocal comparison and professional personnel updating on

avalanche risk prevention methodologies actuated in each individual
region from both technical and legislative points of view.
Research in territorial planning promoted by AINEVA and in which
Arpa Piemonte participates actively, allows the introduction of risk pre-
vention principles into preliminary procedures for the authorisation of lift
facilities, ski slopes, or artificial snow equipment. Even if not specif-
ically required by regional regulations, such intervention tends to instil
ski facility management with an increasing awareness for the need to
adopt preventive measures, be they structural and managerial, to avoid
avalanche-related accidents.
This perpetually updated knowledge base allows Arpa Piemonte to
carry out its own institutional task of providing technical-scientific
support to the Region, to the Provinces, and to Municipalities during the
preliminary phases of authorisation procedures for works and interven-
tions related to the tourist uses of the mountain territory, guaranteeing
the application of criteria and methods that are indispensable for the
sustainable development of the Piedmont Alpine areas.
The profound knowledge of the regional mountain territory and its cli-
matic conditions, together with the use of modelling applications and study
methodologies shared on an international level, allows the Regional Fore-
casting and Environmental Monitoring Area to play a role as consultant
in avalanche warning problems that may involve roadway infrastruc-
tures of strategic importance, as demonstrated by the study conducted
on avalanche safety for the Olympic road system.
The adoption of a regional sector regulation that calls for the safe
management of ski districts through the use of avalanche risk prevention
methods and systems, which has already been consolidated in practice
and recognised in sector regulations for some Alpine Arc regions, would
allow a more effective prevention of avalanche accidents.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Avondo G.V., Castellino D. & Rosselli D. (2003), Pragelato, il Beth e le sue miniere
ad un secolo dalla grande valanga. Pinerolo, Alzani editore (in Italian).
*Barbolini M. (1996), Sulla modellazione delle avalanches di neve densa.
Technical University of Milano. Thesis (in Italian).
*Barbolini M. & Cappabianca F. (2003), Calcolo della danger e analisi di rischi:
un nuovo metodo basato sull’utilizzo dei modelli di dinamica. Neve e Valanghe,
n. 50, pp. 62–71 (in Italian).
Barbolini M., Natale L., Cordola M. & Tecilla G. (2004a), Linee Guida
metodologiche per la perimetrazione delle aree esposte al pericolo di valanghe.
Neve e Valanghe, n. 53, pp. 6–13 (in Italian).
*Barbolini M., Cappabianca F. & Savi F. (2004b), Risk assessment in avalanche
prone areas. Annals of Glaciology, n. 38.
Avalanches 229
*Bariffi A. (2002), GIS e modellizzazione del rischio valanga. Neve e Valanghe,

n. 45, pp. 32–41 (in Italian).
Buisson L. & Charlier C. (1993), Studio dei rischi valanghivi sul comprensorio
sciistico Ovest di Macugnaga. Grenoble (F), CEMAGREF. Consultancy report
for the Region of Piemonte (in Italian).
Capello C.F. (1977), Archivio storico-topografico delle valanghe italiane
(Provincia di Cuneo). Torino. Istituto di Geografia Alpina dell’Università di
Torino (in Italian).
Capello C.F. (1980), Archivio storico-topografico delle valanghe italiane
(Provincia di Torino). Torino. Istituto di Geografia Alpina dell’Università di
Torino (in Italian).
Christen M., Bartelt P. & Gruber U. (2002), Aval-1D Numerical calculation of
dense flow and powder snow avalanches. Davos (CH). Swiss Federal Institute
for Snow and Avalanche Research.
Cresta R. (2002), L’esplosivo e la neve. II ed. Milano, Club Alpino Italiano (in
Italian).
Denza F. (1889), Relazione sulle valanghe degli anni 1885 e 1888. Bollettino del
Club Alpino, vol. XXII, p. 181 (in Italian).
*Fontana E. (1991), Storie di antichi inverni. Varallo, ed. Club Alpino Italiano,
Sezione di Varallo (in Italian).
*Ghinoi A. (2004), STARTER – Un metodo per la valutazione della suscettibilità
valanghiva. Neve e Valanghe, n. 51, pp. 12–25 (in Italian).
*McClung, D.M. (2001), Characteristics of terrain, snow supply and forest
cover for avalanche initiation caused by logging. Annals of Glaciology, n. 32,
pp. 223–229.
Serra M. (1997), Le valanghe del 1885–1888. I terribili inverni dei nostri nonni.
Self-published (in Italian).
*Sobilla B., Bartelt P., Barbolini M., Christen M., Gruber U., Maggioni M., Tiefen-
bacher F., Turnbull B. & Amman W. (2001), La dinamica delle valanghe: lo
stato dell’arte e la ricerca. Professione Montagna, n. 64 (in Italian).
Tomasuolo E. (2001), Creazione di un archivio GIS degli eventi valanghivi in
Provincia di Torino nel periodo 1885–1951, Facoltà Scienze Matematiche,
Fisiche, Naturali dell’Università di Torino. Thesis (in Italian).
2.7 River Flooding
2.7.1 INTRODUCTION
The morphological analyses of waterways conducted by the Arpa

Piemonte – Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological Studies are
above all aimed at providing an overview of the evolutionary and cur-
rent dynamics of the main waterways, forecasting future tendencies to the
morphological variations that have already taken place. The activities con-
ducted are essentially morphological surveys (photo-interpretation and
field survey) and studies directed during floods for the production of
thematic maps aimed at the classification of flood probability and the
identification of the areas at risk.
The Arpa Piemonte Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area,
through its own Centro Funzionale, supplies a continuous forecasting
service for discharges of the main waterways of the Piedmontese hydro-
graphic network that allows the anticipated forecast of hydraulic risk
conditions, the issuing of forecast bulletins, and the alerting of the civil
protection structures involved. The warning requires a short-term forecast
that indicates when and where critical situations might occur in the most
reliable way possible.
The integration of knowledge and experiences within the two Struc-
tures of Arpa Piemonte is consolidated in interdisciplinary studies
finalised at the classification of the territory in function of the hydraulic
risk, with a view to completing the forecast of the temporal evolution of
the phenomena in real time, even with the indication of the areas involved,
especially those at higher risk, in function of the flooding dynamics and
the effects of the expected damage.
2.7.2 FLUVIAL PROCESSES
The genesis of waterways and their evolution depend on four principal

factors: morphodynamic processes, structural control, climatic variations,
and time. All of these factors operate on different scales, sometimes imper-
ceptible to man, conditioning the form of the landscape and its evolution.
The processes that influence the territory during floods are in any case
closely connected and conditioned by these factors; therefore studies can
increase our knowledge of them and about how they change, which is a
fundamental aspect of forecasting the effects of floods on the anthropic
fabric and implementing the instruments necessary for a correct territorial
management policy.
The climatic variations that have involved the earth have had more or
less regular fluctuations with cycles of millenniums, like the succession
of the glacial and interglacial ages during the Quaternary and with shorter
century and decade-long cycles, like the more recent minor ice ages that
occurred between the years 500 and 700 A.D., and between 1500 and 1850
A.D. These latter cycles, even if brief, considerably influenced the life of
man and the morphology of the territory.
Recent climatic studies predict the beginning of a period marked by a
gradual increase in the temperatures, accentuated by the emission of gas
produced by fossil fuels into the atmosphere. Environmental modifica-
tions linked to the average increase of the temperature have been already
verified naturally, with 150–200-year cycles. The current period would
represent the climatic transition between the last Little Ice Age and the
next Greenhouse Effect. The latest hot periods noted are during Roman
times (150–350 A.D.) and Medieval times (1000–1300). Multidisciplinary
studies have allowed us to quantitatively evaluate the modifications of the
physical environment that have occurred at various latitudes over the past
thousands of years: during hot-arid periods, desertification took place
along the coastal areas of the Mediterranean with sudden 80% reductions
in rainfall, while in hilly and mountainous areas there was a reduction
of precipitation of more than 50% and a concentration of rainfall during
limited periods.
It has therefore been hypothesized that upcoming modifications,
according to the climatic-environmental history of previous periods and
other miscellaneous scientific data, together with other variations like the
desertification of coastal regions, a reduction in the pedogenetic processes,
a reduction in the vegetable covering, an increase of the soil erosion, etc.,
as well as the following changes:
• a strong reduction in total precipitation in mountainous and hilly areas
(more than 50% of the current level) but more violent occurrences with
the consequential increase of river discharges;
• a progressive shift of the neutral point towards the foothills area of the
waterways with a diminution of sediment transport;
• an increase in the erosion of sandy-gravelly coastlines;
• an increase in the freezing level with consequential progressive fusion
of permafrost and increase of the rainy precipitations in mountainous
Alpine areas (Ortolani & Pagliuca, 2001).
Geological processes have also influenced and continue to influence

the course of rivers and related processes. Below are three significant
examples of the geological conditioning of Piedmontese rivers.
During the Quaternary, continual geodynamic action was the main
cause of three important fluvial deviations during the Pleistocene that
involved the drainage system of the upper Po River Valley: the diversion
of the Po, that of the Dora Baltea River, and the capture of the Tanaro
River.
River Flooding 233
The diversion of the Po was the consequence of the geodynamic evo-

lution of the Torino hills associated with erosive-depositional processes
of the glaciofluvial fan of the Rivoli-Avigliana Morainic Amphitheatre
during the lower Pleistocene. This combination of factors led to the north-
ern closure of the Southern Piedmontese Basin near Moncalieri. Since
then, the flow direction turned south of the Torino Hills and the reliefs of
Monferrato (Paleo Po).
The Quaternary evolution subsequently produced increased compres-
sion of theTorino Hills anticline together with an increase in the southwest-
wardly inclination of its axis. The main consequence of these processes
was the subsidence of the north-eastern sector of the Southern Piedmon-
tese Plain, causing a deformation structure now known as the Marginal
Flexure of the Poirino Highlands, with a north-south axis and a tectonic
lowering of the reliefs in the area of Asti. This progressive phenomenon
caused the return of the drainage of the Southern Piedmontese Basin north-
ward, inducing the diversion of the Po River, which began flowing north
of the Torino Hills and the reliefs of Monferrato, even if with a different
conformation (Polino & Sacchi, 1995; Nigrelli, 2005) (Figure 2.7.1).
Figure 2.7.1 The current

course of the Po River (in
blue), north of the Torino
Hills. The old course of the
river can be observed,
parallel to the current one,
incised in an east-west
direction between hilly reliefs.
The Tanaro, descending from the Maritime Alps, ran along the plain
and flowed into the Po River in correspondence with the town of Carig-
nano and, towards the end of the Upper Pleistocene, underwent a sort of
capture near Bra. The capture took place due to the regressive erosion
of the watershed that separated the ancient riverbed from the valley of
one of the torrents that moulded the hills to the east. The river waters
abandoned the old riverbed to flow into the Po in the plain of Alessandria
(Figure 2.7.2).
The third and last modification is that of the Dora Baltea River at the
closure of its valley run. Currently the Dora Baltea passes the City of
Ivrea through a narrow gorge in the rock of the crystalline substratum.
Northeast of the city the little Rio Ribes today runs in an ancient yet
clearly-marked channel of the river. The terminal part of this channel is
Figure 2.7.2 Current

eastward course of the
Tanaro River (in blue). Notice
the ancient course of the river
that deviates westwards,
running along the current
eastern boundaries of the
Cuneo plains.
now occupied by the Chiusella Torrent, which in post-glacial times had

undergone a capture due to regressive erosion caused by tectonic lifting
(Carraro, 1992). It is probable that the ancient glacial stream was divided
into several channels at its entry onto the plain downstream of Ivrea: one
of these channels passed through Ivrea along its current course, while
the others headed towards Fiorano. Probably the combination of tectonic
movements and erosion at the expense of filling deposits of the plain north
of Ivrea caused the formation of the present terraced surface of Fiorano
and the consequential abandonment of the Ribes channel. This particular
morphological situation, due to the presence of a minor watershed repre-
sented by the lower terrace of Fiorano, causes spillover during flooding
with discharges higher than 2,000 m3 /s and the reactivation of the aban-
doned branch. This is what happened during the floods of September 1993
(Bellardone & Forlati, 1996a) and October 2000 (Bellardone & Giampani,
2003), and one other time during the XX century in October 1920. Other
older reactivations were also noted in 1834 and in 1775 (Figure 2.7.3).
As already seen, the magnitude of the morphological changes can
vary greatly over time, but the most evident changes (because they are
on a humanly perceivable temporal scale) are associated with anthropic
activities and occur more quickly than the surrounding environment is
capable of sustaining, causing an imbalance of the entire system.
A stable river is dynamically balanced when, on a basin scale, the pro-
cesses of sedimentation and removal compensate each other. The boundary
conditions include the slope of the valley, the geo-lithological characteris-
tics, the type of soil, the characteristics of the vegetation, as well as climatic
conditions. Modifications in the quantity of solid transport during floods
and in the boundary conditions may disturb the balance of the waterway,
which may respond with evident and even sudden morphological changes,
until the system rebalances itself.
River Flooding 235
Figure 2.7.3 Current course

of the Dora Baltea River (dark
blue), with flooded areas
during the September 1993
flood (light blue grid, fuchsia
arrows) and the October 2000
flood (light and dark blue grid,
red and fuchsia arrows) that
indicate not only the old
westward along the current
course of the Rio Ribes and
Chiusella Torrent, but also
other fluvial courses between
Ivrea and Pavone Canavese
that were reactivated in 2000.
When the erosive processes exceed the sedimentation, a natural inci-

sion is made in the channel. A reduction in the amount of sediment may
be related to climatic factors, but is also due to the creation of artificial
retention structures, the building of protection works, and the removal of
sediment from the riverbed for anthropic use.
On one hand, such actions favour the planimetric stability of the chan-
nel and the containment of minor or moderate flooding with decade-long
return periods, but on the other, they cause problems for both the environ-
ment and anthropic settlements. One of the major problems caused is the
lowering of the groundwater surface and the consequential lowering of the
quota reached by the capillary rise, which causes the impoverishment of
the soil. Among the problems caused to the anthropic fabric is the contin-
ual damage to bridges, even by flooding that is not particularly exceptional
(return periods of 20–50 years). Furthermore, the river training with the
reduction of areas involved by flows causes a reduction in the probability
of flooding for protected areas on one hand, but on the other causes an
increase in the velocity and the downstream discharge with the possibil-
ity of more widespread flooding. This problem had already been dealt
with by Visentini (1952): “the sight of these vast territories abandoned by
the river ways disgusts those who think of the pressing social needs that
spur the cultivation of new lands, but in spite of what has been said, the
narrowing of the riverbeds with embankments or other protection would
increase the value of the flood peaks in embanked rivers and therefore, at
least under current conditions, must be absolutely excluded”.
Figure 2.7.4 The Chisone

Stream near Pinerolo before
the flood of October 2000:
the waterway presented a
single active channel, with
the exception of a brief
secondary channel which is
now being abandoned.
Figure 2.7.5 The Chisone

Stream near Pinerolo,
following the flood of
October 2000: the flows are
distributed between two
channels on the right bank,
while the channel that was
previously active has been
abandoned.
The braided channel Piedmontese waterways have undergone modifi-

cations due to anthropic factors resulting in the almost total disappearance
of braided models and their replacement by single channel forms. Such
changes, which are also due to variation in hydrological patterns (Maraga,
1989) were already taking place as far back as the 17th century, but
accelerated considerably during the last decades of the past century. This
accelerated metamorphosis, which was induced essentially by anthropic
River Flooding 237
Figure 2.7.6 The river

channel modelled by the flood
as photographed a few days
later (photo by V. Giraud).
Figure 2.7.7 Orco Stream

during the mid-19th century.
The width of the stream
channel varied from a
minimum of 60 metres at the
bridge of Cuorgnè, at the
mouth in the plains, up to a
maximum of more than 900
metres between the towns of
San Benigno Canavese and
Foglizzo.
factors, may be impeded by the occurrence of exceptional floods and a

return to the original morphologies, as exemplified by the following cases.
In 1858, the Chisone Torrent, in the zone between its mouth in the
plain and the State Highway 559 bridge, consisted of a riverbed with two
active channels that covered approximately 300 metres at its widest point
(Sheet LII, Pinerolo of Gran Carta degli Stati Sardi in Terraferma on a
scale of 1:50,000). Beginning in the first decades of the past century, a
progressive reduction of the width of the riverbed was noted, with the
concentration of the flow in a single channel that, at the beginning of the
1990s, had a width of approximately 70 m in the area near the bridge and
considerably narrower further upstream.
Figure 2.7.8 Channel of the Orco Stream following the 2000 flood (upstream of Rivarolo Canavese).
During the flood of October 2000 (estimated discharge at San Martino

of 980 m3 /s, return period approximately 130 years) (Barbero et al., 2003)
the torrent regained a braided channel in this zone, with a width calculated
at approximately 250 m.
Until the 1950s, the Orco Torrent had a wide riverbed with several
channels. A comparison of the torrent in different periods demonstrates
how the riverbed tended to diminish in width before the 1950s (Maraga,
1989). Its mutation into a single channel continued and was promoted by
the excavation of riverbed material and, above all, by the realisation of
structures aimed at containing the flow in increasingly narrow spaces. At
the end of the 1970s, the flow had been directed into a single channel,
but still with brief stretches of riverbed with two or more branches, in any
case characterised by main channels that were deeper than the lateral ones,
which were progressively being abandoned. This tendency persisted over
time, as can be observed by 1991 aerial photographs where the riverbed
is almost totally characterised by only one active channel (Bellardone &
Forlati, 1996b).
River Flooding 239
Following the flood of September 24th–25th, 1993, with a peak dis-

charge in Pont Canavese of 1,500 m3 /s and return period of 50 years
(Ravera et al., 1996), the original river channel pattern prevailed with
the occurrence of the characteristic processes associated with flooding in
braided rivers: an increase of the bed section due to bank erosion, newly
formed channels, the reactivation of secondary channels not ordinarily
involved, flows, and bed load transport. Following the October 2000 flood
in Cuorgnè, with an estimated discharge of 1,650 m3 /s and return period
of 80 years (Barbero et al., 2003), the morphology of many stretches of the
bed was once again comparable to that of the middle of the past century,
Moreover, many stretches that were characterised by a single channel for
more than a century, like that near the bridge of Cuorgnè, had regained a
braided morphology.
Significant changes, also associated with the 2000 flood, towards the
original braided bed were observed along the stretch of the Dora Baltea,
downstream from the glacial deposits of the Morainic Amphitheatre of
Ivrea (Bellardone & Giampani, 2003).
2.7.3 THE GEOMORPHOLOGICAL DIAGNOSIS: AN

APPROACH FOR THE STUDY OF FLOOD
PROBABILITY
With the Interreg CatchRisk: Mitigation of Hydro-Geological Risk in

Alpine Catchments, the Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and
Geological Research conducted morphological studies aimed at the iden-
tification and the classification of natural flooding probability for the
purpose of supplying guidelines to be applied in analogous studies in the
valley bottoms and plains (AA.VV., 2005a). The morphological diagnosis
method is oriented towards the identification of areas potentially suscep-
tible to flooding and their cataloguing into classes of relative probability,
also by evaluating the existing and past morphological features of the river
(Maraga & Turitto, 1998).
The geomorphological approach presumes that the flow propagation
can occupy the entire system, and that for this reason it is first of all neces-
sary to identify this category defined as natural flood probability, and then
classify it by priority of submersion and by the energy of the potential
flows. The flows in areas naturally susceptible to flooding are often con-
trolled by the macro-morphology as well as by the micro-morphology as
represented by relic fluvial forms, with a low or null degree of incision.
The intersection of these features with the anthropic infrastructures, which
in turn condition routing, sometimes even in conflict with the former, may
determine an increase in the flood probability and its effects in the zone
of influence of these conditionings and on the infrastructure (especially
roadways and artificial channels). Spatially locating such features is

therefore indispensable and can happen only through a careful morpholog-
ical analysis aimed at recognizing the past beds they were associated with.
The project calls for the analysis of two sample areas by selecting
of two stretches of river with very different morphological-environmental
characteristics and a corresponding availability of thematic cartographies.
The first area corresponds to the stretch of the Po River between the
confluences of the Stura in Lanzo and the Orco Torrent (for a stretch of
about 18 km). The second sample area is the Alpine stretch of the Sesia
River between the towns of Alagna Valsesia and Borgosesia (about 50 km).
For the Po River, the morphological reconstruction of the river channels
is founded essentially according to a topographic base (1858, 1923) and
existing thematic cartography (Dutto, 1993), while the reconstruction of
the river channel and the significant morphological elements modelled
from the October 2000 flood and the current terraced surfaces was carried
out through the interpretation of aerial photographs. In order to classify
the flood prone areas, existing maps of the flooded areas from the 1992,
1994, and 2000 floods were also used (Dutto, 1993; Mensio, 1996; Paro,
2003; Susella et al., 2003).
For the second sample area (Sesia River) the recognition of the forms
connected to the river in the 19th century is based on the analysis of topo-
graphic maps (1884–1886). The mapping of the river channel and other
significant morphological features from the second half of the 20th cen-
tury up to the year 2000 was carried out by means of photointerpretation
with optical stereoscope of aerial photographs (4 series) taken between
1954 and 2000, selected also because they were taken after significant
floods (1948–1951, 1976–1977, 1993–1994, 2000).
For the Sesia River, in addition to the planimetric reconstruction of the
channels, the morphometric parameters like the height of streambanks in
2000, the width of the riverbed and active channels, the riverbed length,
the length according to the valley axis, the length of the thalweg line, the
ramification index, the sinuosity index, the total length of bank erosion,
and the entrenchment index were all evaluated for homogeneous stretches.
The altimetric evolution of the water profile was estimated mostly
through indirect planimetric evidence, like the modification of the channel
pattern, the tendency of the waterway to channel, or on the contrary, a
tendency towards a ramified and unstable situation in the flood plain,
and secondly through direct observations on the state of undermining or
filling of channel work foundations (piles, defences), and finally, but
very limitedly, from a comparison of the cross-sections measured during
different times.
The significant parameters, for each homogeneous behaviour of bed
reach, were finally summarised in the descriptive notes and the tables.
The fluvial morphological features were then used for the identi-
fication of areas susceptible to flooding, flood prone areas seeking
to assign each individual area a degree of propensity to reactivation
River Flooding 241
according to the height of the streambanks and the current fluvial struc-
ture, also in consideration of the typologies of associated vegetation
(sown, arboreal, shrubby). The areas susceptible to flooding were therefore
classified as:
1) area at very high possibility of flooding (Class 1). It corresponds to
the area containing the current bank full channel (2000), widened to
include the adjacent areas for the Po River, within the belt of recent his-
toric mobility (from 1923). For the Sesia River, this area was extended
to the belt of historic mobility (including the forms of the riverbed that
have been active since 1884–1886 in the presence of banks between 0
and 5 metres in height;
2) area susceptible to high flood possibility (Class II). For the Sesia River,
this corresponds mostly to first and second order terraces associated
with banks less than 5 m high. For the Po River, it corresponds to
the envelope of the areas involved in the 1994 and 2000 flooding and
to areas containing bed forms recognised on the oldest cartographies
(1858), in absence of embankments or reliefs in general;
3) area susceptible to average-low flooding (Class III). Corresponds to
areas usually outside of the bands of historic mobility, bordered by
older terraces located at quotas higher than the waterway, or areas
opposite stretches with banks of such a height as to be considered
at risk of limited flooding in case of particularly intense and violent
floods;
4) areas potentially susceptible to flooding only for catastrophic events
with a very low natural propensity of flooding (Class IV). It corres-
ponds to the areas of clear fluvial origins (envelope of the incised
or non-incised ancient fluvial forms), that for distance, or for average
quota in comparison with the waterway, presents a very limited genetic
propensity.
For the classification of natural propensity of flooding, the most dan-
gerous morphological situation for each individual area was taken into
account: for example, areas classifiable for their general characteristics,
like mid-low flood probability were placed in class II (high) due to the pres-
ence of critical points due to low banks upstream or for the branching off
of diversion channels, potential overflow flooding zones, or preferential
flow lines.
2.7.4 RESULTS OF THE APPLICATION OF THE

GEOMORPHOLOGICAL DIAGNOSIS
Here the results of the morphological analyses applied in the two different
contexts of the Po River in the Torino plain and the Alpine stretch of Sesia
River will be summarised.
Figure 2.7.9 The stretch of

the Po River analysed.
TABLE 2.7.1 MORPHOMETRIC FEATURES OF

ANALYSED STRETCH OF PO RIVER
Features Value
Max height 209.0 m asl
Min height 171.0 m asl
Low water channel length 21.0 km
Flood channel length 18.4 km
Channel slope 0.18%
In the stretch analysed (from Torino to Chivasso), the Po River can be

classified as a single channel, sinuous, meandering, type C as described
by Rosgen (1994), with an average sinuosity index of Is = 1.14.
Analysing the maps of the morphological aspects of the Po River dur-
ing different periods, it can be observed how the maximum planimetric
extension of the area occupied by the active channels was recorded at the
beginning of the 20th century and how, until the early 1990’s, was sub-
ject to a progressive reduction, which was successively interrupted by the
floods of November 1994 with a 20-year return period (Regione Piemonte,
1998), and of October 2000 with a return period of 80 years (Barbero
et al., 2003), reflecting the analogous behaviour of other Piedmontese
waterways.
The classification of flooded areas was based not only on the analysis
of their forms, but also on flood maps of the 1994 and 2000 events, which
River Flooding 243
TABLE 2.7.2 MAXIMUM PLANIMETRIC EXTENSION

OF PO RIVER IN XX CENTURY
Period Channel Area [km2] Reduction [%]
1923 6.8 –
1958–1988 5.2 24
1992 3.9 43
1994 4.9 28
2000 5.8 15
TABLE 2.7.3 FLOOD PLAIN OF

PO RIVER STRETCH
CLASS FLOOD PLAIN [km2]
Class I 9.74
Class II 11.92
Class III 9.19
Class IV 9.93
Total 40.78
were comparable to reference floods of Warning Code 2 (less than or equal

to 20 years for the 1994 flood) and for Warning Code 3 (more than 20
years for the 2000 flood) of the Warning Bulletin for hydrogeological risk
of the Arpa Piemonte Natural Risk Situations Hall (Sala Situazioni Rischi
Naturali). All the areas flooded during the above-mentioned events, in
absence of morphological conditioning aimed at containing the flooding
(like terraced embankments), were included in the Class II for flood prob-
ability. The exceptions were those zones where flooding, caused in 1994
by the breakage of the flood embankments, no longer occurred in 2000 due
to the proper functioning of the reconstructed embankments; these areas
were assigned to a lower flood probability class (Class III), Table 2.7.3
includes the extensions of the flooded areas according to flood probability
class. The second sample area chosen for the floodability analyses is the
Alpine stretch of the Sesia River.
According to studies conducted, the River was subdivided into 12
reaches of homogeneous behaviour. Analyses of the dimensions of the bed
between 1884 and 1978 indicated that the braided stretches were subjected
to reductions in the average and maximum values nearly everywhere.
Between 1978 and 1994, both the average and maximum widths of the
bed increased and then, in 2000, maintained an extension comparable to
that of 1994.
Instead, by analysing the areas occupied by the active channels, it can
be observed that the maximum extension corresponding to 1884 under-
went a 20% reduction in 1978 and an increase in 1994 to once again
meet the 1884 measurement. In 2000, a minimal reduction over 1994 was
Figure 2.7.10 Second

sample area: Alpine stretch of
the Sesia River between the
towns of Alagna Valsesia and
Borgosesia.
Figure 2.7.11 Channel of the

Sesia in 1884 (IGM base
1:25,000). At that time all the
valley bottom was occupied
by the Sesia. For the legend,
please see the Figure 2.7.14.
recorded. The 1954 bed was not considered because the entire stretch
being studied was never mapped.
According to the analyses carried out, the Sesia River demonstrates a
limited streambank erosion along most of its single channel development
River Flooding 245
Figure 2.7.12 Channel of the

Sesia in 1978 (CTR base
1:10,000). Note how the
flows are concentrated in a
single channel. The legend
for the bed forms is the same
as for Figure 2.7.14.
(where it is often incised into rock), while the wider stretches in the valley
bottom, where it acquires more channels, the lateral activity streambank
erosion is significant in keeping with the classic tendencies of braided
reaches.
Finally, from the value of the area of the riverbeds in 1994 and 2000,
it can be observed how also the Sesia River, like most of the braided
Piedmontese waterways, together with floods with not particularly signifi-
cant return periods, like those of 1993, 1994, and 2000, totally or almost
totally reacquired the width it had at the end of the 19th century, with a
reaffirmation of its multi-channel nature.
Arriving at the analysis of natural flood probability, of the 17 km2 of
classified valley bottom, 30% is in Class I (elevated propensity), 20% in
Class II (high propensity), 15% in Class III (mid-low), 11% in Class IV
(very low) and only 16% of the valley bottom would not be susceptible to
flooding.
Associating areas belonging to different classes of flood probability
with the information obtained from the morphological analyses resulted
in a further classification according to the expected impact, placing par-
ticular attention on the identification of areas that could be involved in
concentrated flows due to the presence of more or less remodelled chan-
nels associated with one or more active stream channels during the period
considered. The flood probability classes I, II, and III were therefore fur-
ther subdivided into categories A and B in function of the presence of such
elements.
TABLE 2.7.4 EXAMPLE OF REPORT ABOUT MAIN MORPHOLOGIC

FEATURES OF RIVER STRETCH
PLANIMETRIC EVOLUTION OF THE RIVER (1885–2000)
PAST NOW
1954 – braided Braided irregular
CHANNEL TYPOLOGY 1978 – braided Locally braided
1994 – braided
1954 – 49.1
MEAN WIDTH [m] 1978 – 46.5 65.3
1994 – 66.1
1954 – 2
BRAIDING INDEX 1978 – 2 2
1994 – 2
1994 – left bank – 567.6 left bank – 310.64
(15.10%) (16.50%)
EROSIONE DI SPONDA [m]
1994 – right bank – 772.8 right bank – 1028.1
(20.28%) (28.54%)
ALTIMETRIC EVOLUTION OF CHANNEL BOTTOM

Present state
Evidences of deepening
REACTIVATION OF OXBOWS
Late abandoned meander 1 on left bank and 1 on the right one
Old abandoned meander –
GRAIN SIZE DISTRIBUTION
Boulders and cobbles
VEGETATION ALONG RIVER SPACE
Trees and shrub
Man-made measures
2.7.5 INTERDISCIPLINARY ANALYSES FOR THE PURPOSE

OF CLASSIFYING FLOOD RISK AREAS
The morphological approach to the flood probability analysis allows the

identification of areas of a fluvial nature (active channels, and flood-
prone areas), but allow only their classification according to their relative
probability of being flooded, while the morphological approach does not
allow the correlation of areas to probable flood events. Therefore, for the
recognition of areas at risk of flooding, it is necessary to associate the
above-mentioned morphological analyses with other studies for the pur-
pose of classifying the flooding of each individual waterway in terms of
discharge, frequency, and impact on the territory. Only through the inte-
gration of geomorphological analysis with hydraulic studies and with the
River Flooding 247
Figure 2.7.13 Channel of

the Sesia River in 1994.
Observe the reactivation of
the channel making up the
bend in the valley (flow from
left to right). The legend for
the bed forms is the same
as for Figure 2.7.14.
Figure 2.7.14 The Sesia

River in 2000. The form of
the stream channel can be
compared to that of 1994,
but observe the lateral
channel upstream that has
been abandoned and the
formation of a small lateral
channel in the middle area
of the stretch.
recognition of the effects and damage caused by past floods, it is possible

to establish the identification of the boundaries of floodable areas with
known discharges (as reference for warning interventions, for example)
and the recognition of the other elements at risk. This information, asso-
ciated with a meteorological forecasting system and a real time flood
advisory system, allow the definition of scenarios thanks to which it is
possible to actuate protection interventions as well as controls on works

and infrastructures in case the set warning thresholds should be surpassed.
Arpa Piemonte has experimented different methodologies for studying
Piedmontese waterways, allowing the development of a procedure used
in studies aimed at recognising risk areas, founded on an interdisciplinary
approach that combines historical information with geomorphological and
hydraulic analyses.
The next chapters will briefly summarise the main stages of these
analyses.
2.7.5.1 Analyses oriented at the morphological characterisation

of the water system and the elements at hydraulic risk
As already affirmed, the effects related to the passage of floodwaters
are the consequence of long-lasting physical and climatic factors and
anthropic conditioning that may aggravate or, on the contrary, reduce the
damages it causes; therefore, information on the impact of past floods,
if analysed with a view to the current state of the territory, in terms of
land occupation and the presence of defence/retention works, allow the
prediction of what may be the effects and damages caused by future floods.
In general, the study of past floods calls for a photointerpretive analysis
to recognise the morphological elements modelled by the floodwaters and
of the areas flooded. The directed analyses must be integrated with infor-
mation from historical or technical-scientific documentation (available in
various town, provincial, and regional archives, etc.) needed mostly for
the identification of the entities involved and for the identification, even if
only qualitative, of the damage (built-up zones, roadway infrastructures,
defence works, etc.). The GIS allows, through the informatization and
layering of data, a spatial and multi-temporal overview of the water system,
to visualise the historical evolution, and to forecast future developments
through suitable and targeted syntheses of the various informative layers.
The use of these techniques also allows researchers to spatially highlight
all those elements that have denoted signs of vulnerability to flooding over
time, frame them in their environmental context by individual episodes,
and classify them into classes of risk.
The analyses of the altimetry modifications of the river-bed complete
the data base by contributing to the construction of the picture of the cur-
rent and past morphological features of the waterway and its evolutionary
tendencies, according to bed reaches with homogeneous behaviour.
The morphological information on historic flooding of a waterway,
set into the current situation and integrated with land use information,
will lead to the forecasting of expected effects on the anthropic fabric,
with regards to risk scenarios classified and described according to grow-
ing levels of danger and specifically associated with suitable reference
discharges.
River Flooding 249
Figure 2.7.15 Classes of

flood possibility divided into
categories A and B according
to the presence (A) or
absence (B) of associated
channels with at least one of
the stream channels
recognised during the period
analyses (1882/86–2000).
2.7.5.2 Hydraulic analyses

The reference discharges that are used to describe the scenarios are gen-
erally obtained from statistical elaborations of the historic series of the
waterways being studied. When discharge data is not available for a suffi-
cient period of time, the reference discharges may be gathered from basin
scale regionalization studies like those proposed by many Basin Author-
ities and by Operational Units of the National Group of Hydrogeological
Catastrophes of the Italian National Research Council.
For each bed reach with homogeneous behaviour, at least reference
discharges associated with moderately or elevated risk scenarios are iden-
tified; hydraulic verifications aimed at identifying the maximum flood
level for these discharges are conducted. These verifications are used to
examine the hydraulic freeboard of the longitudinal works (embankments,
defences, etc.) and transversal works (bridges, viaducts, etc.); these dis-
charges are to be used in the analyses for the defining the boundaries of
flood areas.
The modelling approach applied depends on the complexity of the
phenomenon to be represented. In some cases a continuous hydraulic
verification with one-dimension flow is sufficient, while in more com-
plex situations it may be opportune to use 2-D variable flow models
that take into account transversal components of the flow and mitigation
phenomena.
Particular attention should be paid to points that correspond to critical
stretches susceptible to overflowing, especially:
• in correspondence to transversal structures;
• in correspondence to diversion structures;
• in correspondence to embanked stretches know to be at risk of
overflowing;
• in correspondence to structures that impede water flow;
• upstream of zones that, according to the morphological analyses
described above, are indicated as susceptible to flooding with a high
relative probability.
It is always advisable to verify the degree of reliability of the model
applied whenever significant divergences should be found. The veri-
fication consists of a comparison of the modelled simulations with
morphological effects and damages caused by past floods, for which it

is possible to reconstruct the flood areas and review the schematization
adopted.
2.7.5.3 Risk scenarios

The mapping of flood risk is a useful tool for warning activities if asso-
ciated with an adequate flood forecasting, activities that are the responsi-
bility of national and regional warning systems for hydrogeological and
hydraulic risk for civil protection purposes.
Operational guidelines for the organizational and functional manage-
ment of the system require the defining of an articulated scale on at least
two levels of criticality – moderate and high – for each type of risk, as
well as an ordinary situation base level in which possible criticalities
are believed to be generally accepted by the population. Excluding the
base level, the other levels can be classified according to the following
definitions:
• Level 2: moderate criticality, which corresponds to the surpassing of
ordinary flood levels defined as the discharge that transits and entirely
occupies the waterway bed with levels approaching those of ground or
dike levels. The erosion of the most vulnerable banks begins to become
significant and areas adjacent to the waterway begin to flood.
• Level 3: elevated criticality, which corresponds to the surpassing of
the extraordinary flood level defined as the discharge that cannot be
contained in the bed, therefore causing serious flood conditions.
Once the levels of criticality and the corresponding reference floods
have been defined, the corresponding risk scenarios are designated for
each bed reach with homogeneous behaviour. For each warning level
adopted, opportune maps with adequate topographic scales (at least
1:10,000) are drawn to indicate the flood fields forecasted according to
the morphological analyses and hydraulic models, as well as flood-related
works. It is of fundamental importance that the risk scenarios highlight
those structures that may influence the flow distribution, especially if they
determine preferential high hydraulic heads.
2.7.6 RESULTS OF THE INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

TO THE FLOOD PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE
MAPPING OF THE HYDRAULIC RISK OF THE
SESIA RIVER
The methodology relative to the mapping of flood risk areas, briefly

described above, was developed and applied to a stretch of the Sesia River
(from Borgosesia to the confluence with the Cervo Torrent), as part of the
Floodaware Research Project – Flood Prevention and Forecasting and the
River Flooding 251
Figure 2.7.16 The Sesia

River, Alpine tributary of the
Po, begins at Monte Rosa
and has a drainage basin
of 3,100 km2 . The main
contributions are taken from
the Sessera Torrent,
downstream from
Borgosesia, and Cervo
Torrent (drainage basin of
1,088 km2 ), just upstream
from Vercelli. Many of the
waterways from the Vercelli
plains converge in the Sesia.
European Union research programs activated following the extreme cli-

matic events that struck Europe during the early 1990s, dictating the need
to mitigate and manage flood events, given their high social-economic
impact (Figure 2.7.16).
The objective of the project was to supply emergency management bod-
ies with a decision-making support tool that was easily read, clear, and that,
in relation to the danger of forecasted floods, allowed the identification of
risk areas and the actuation of suitable civil protection measures. Within
the Floodaware Project, the scenarios were subdivided into two classes
that corresponded to the criticality levels described above. The reference
floods associated to the two levels were floods with return periods of 20
and 200 years respectively.
According to the analysis of the main flood events for the stretch in
question over the past century (Table 2.7.5), the floods of September 1948
and November 1968 were analysed. These events, according to the doc-
umentation analysed, were characterised by return periods much longer
than 20 years in the stretch in question (Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Po,
1997). Of the two of these, the 1968 flood was documented better and
was therefore considered as the reference flood for the elevated criticality
scenario.
TABLE 2.7.5 HISTORICAL FLOODS AND RELATIVE WATER LEVELS OF SESIA RIVER
Hydrometric station August 1934 September 1948 November 1968 September 1993 November 1994
Q [m3/s] h [m] Q [m3/s] h [m] Q [m3/s] h [m] Q [m3/s] h [m] Q [m3/s] h [m]
Borgosesia 2,990 7.5 3,070 7.9 2,150 6.8 2,400 5.05 1,800 3.37
Vercelli 2,970 6.4 – – 3,900 6.9 3,400* 5.68* 3,200* 5.65*
* Hydrometric station at Palestro (downstream to Vercelli)
TABLE 2.7.6 DISCHARGE WITH GIVEN RETURN PERIOD FOR SESIA RIVER
(AUTORITÀ DI BACINO DEL FIUME PO, 1997)
Hydrometric station TR = 20 years TR = 200 years

Q [m3/s] q [m3/s km2] Q [m3/s] q [m3/s km2]
Borgosesia 2,730 3.93 4,220 6.07
Vercelli 3,370 1.48 4,900 2.15
With regards to the 1968 flood at the station of Vercelli “whose

hydrometrograph – (which was) seriously damaged – stopped working
before the peak, the flood diagram was partially reconstructed according
to direct readings. During the peak, which occurred at 10 PM on Novem-
ber 2nd, the fluvial level reached a height of 6.90 m. […]. The height of the
peak would certainly have been greater if, just before and in conjunction
with the same (N.d.R. time?), there had not been overflowing in the tribu-
taries and in the Sesia itself” (Ministero dei Lavori Pubblici, 1969). Other
sources indicate very different discharge values (Carraro et al., 1970): “the
flood wave was evaluated by technicians of the Consorzio Ovest Sesia at
about 6,000 m3 /s (other sources indicated lower values)”.
The September 1993 flood, with an estimated return period of about
20 years, was used as a reference for moderate criticality scenarios.
The definition of the past scenarios was therefore based on the study
of the processes and the effects related to historic floods as reconstructed
through the interpretation of aerial photographs of the major flood events
(1948 photographs for 1954 flood; photographs made in 1968, 1977, 1993
after each event). The photointerpretive analysis led to the recognition of
the flooded areas and the induced effects of floods (damage to works,
erosion, overflowing, and dike failure). Punctual information from the
Arpa Piemonte Geological Information System (SiGeo) is added to this
areal data. The information contained in the SiGeo, wherever it was not
sufficiently complete, was integrated with updates from various State
archives, town archives, and on-site interviews.
Even for the Sesia River, as for other Piedmontese waterways, the
flood analyses, especially that of 1968, demonstrated how the most signifi-
cant floods reactivate the relict fluvial morphology and how this strongly
influences the distribution of the flows. The level of energy reached by
the current in the marginal strip of the active channel are greater in cor-
respondence to the relict fluvial forms that, in branching off from the
River Flooding 253
active channel, develop for considerable distances and become preferen-

tial courses for high energy flows. In this way, the significant effects of
the flood impact areas that are even very distant from the waterway and
sometimes occupied by settlements and infrastructures.
The scenarios reconstructed through the processes and the effects of
flooding mentioned were then applied in the current daily environmen-
tal context to verify their validity in keeping with the current territorial
landscape and existing defence works.
The current landscape was defined through the steps below:
• the plano-altimetric evolution of the bed was analysed and the points
with the most significant variations were identified;
• the territory studied was subjected to an in-depth morphological analy-
sis for the purpose of distinguishing the most important forms for the
flood probability classification and the reconstruction of risk scenarios;
• the effectiveness and the efficiency of hydraulic defence interventions
were verified;
• the photointerpretive analysis and the historical cartographies allowed
the reconstruction of the modifications of the active bed of the Sesia
River over time and the recognition of the belt of historic mobility.
The comparison of the bed limits of the Sesia River of 1882–1884 and
that of 1994 indicated a general reduction in its cross-section over the
past century. In particular, the study conducted on the modifications of
the Sesia River from 1954 until 1994 indicated a general tendency of the
active channel to narrow, characterised by the triggering of channel scour
with the possibility of serious consequences on the stability of works like
bridges or other types of transversal structures.
In order to evaluate the plano-altimetric variations of the Sesia River
more precisely, the cross-sections measured during different years and
the corresponding hydrometric levels for reference floods were compared.
The cross-sections obtained from documentation available (property of the
Po Magistrate) cover up to 1992, while six sections were specially surveyed
in 1997 in order to highlight the subsequent altimetric modification.
The comparison of the cross-sections in the stretch between Romag-
nano and the Torino-Milano motorway called attention to a general
increase in the discharge cross-section of the active channel as a con-
sequence of the removal of large quantities of bed materials between 1971
and 1992.
This tendency was confirmed by the comparison of the hydrometric
levels for reference floods. For a flood with a return period of 20 years, the
level reached in the cross-section in 1992 was generally less than 0.5–1 m
compared to that of the section in 1971 (a significant example is found in
Figure 2.7.17).
For the hydraulic analyses, the hydrometric level was calculated by
means of a hydraulic model that simulates the hydrodynamic routing of
the flood with a one dimensional schematization with non-stationary flow,
178
177
176
175 h 1971
174
Height (m als)
h 1992
173
172
171
Figure 2.7.17 Comparative
170
cross-section of the Sesia section n. 8 in 1971
River 1971–1992, upstream 169
section n. 8 in 1992
from the Torino-Milano
motorway and the 168
hydrometric levels for a flood 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500
with a 20-year return period. m
or MIKE11© of the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI, 2001–2004). In

the same stretch, the comparison of the cross-sections of 1992 and 1997
demonstrate an inverse tendency toward sedimentation (Figure 2.7.18)
that matches with the results of the morphological analyses of the Alpine
stretch of the Sesia River, conducted as part of the CatchRisk Project
described above. It can therefore be hypothesized that if a phenomenon
with a discharge similar to that of the 1968 event should occur, the water-
way would reacquire the width occupied by the river channel in that date
and the flooding could involve the same areas but would cause even more
serious damage because in the meantime the anthropic occupation of the
area in proximity to the waterway has increased.
216
214
212
210
Height (m asl)
208
206
204 section n. 13 in 1971

202
Figure 2.7.18 Comparative
cross-sections of the Sesia 200
River 1971–1992–1997 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100
upstream of Carpignano. m
River Flooding 255
From Borgosesia to Romagnano and from the Torino-Milano motor-

way to the tributary of the Cervo Torrent, downstream of the head reach
described, it is not possible to make any considerations on the altimetric
variation of the channel bottom due to a lack of comparison cross-sections.
A second focal point for the definition of hydraulic risk scenarios was the
recognition of stretches of levees with a high risk of failure or collapse. The
analysis was carried out according to historical information on levee fail-
ure and the current state of adequacy and maintenance of the dikes. The
same criterion was applied to identify the defence works that are most
vulnerable to erosion. Beginning with topographic surveys of the bed
cross-sections (1992 survey of the Po River Authority) integrated with
cross sections of bridges, a one-dimensional non-stationary flow model,
as mentioned above, was used to reconstruct the flood discharge profiles
with return periods of 20 and 200 years.
In this way the stretches at risk and the degree of bridge safety were
verified. The stretches of dikes at risk of overflowing were identified
by comparing the height of the embankment with the hydraulic profile to
floods being used as reference. The degree of bridge safety, referred to the
dynamic action of the current on the floor system, was evaluated through
the comparison of the flood profile with the level of the bridge soffit.
The static safety of the bridge, in reference to the undermining of the
foundations, was classified according to the efficiency of the protection
works and the entity of the ongoing erosion. The overall lowering of the
channel bottom is particularly evident in proximity to the bridges; often
the footings present signs of undermining that, during flood conditions,
may compromise the static safety of the work itself. When analysing flood
effects, some important considerations must be made on the role played
by the presence of the levees along the Sesia River. In 1968, from Romag-
nano to Vercelli, there was a continuous right/left embankment system
that was proven to be inadequate during the flood of November of the
same year. The waters, which overflowed and broke down the embank-
ments in several points, were distributed over the outside areas that had
been considered protected; the embankments also aggravated the effects
of the flooding by impeding the return of the water to the riverbed. Due
to the fact that this embankment system has not improved in its func-
tionality over the next thirty years, the problem may recur in analogous
situations.
The integration of the information resulting from the analyses
described above led to the definition of risk scenarios associated with
warning levels.
For Level 2 (moderate criticality), the flood-prone area under ordin-
ary conditions was made to correspond to the bank-full channel of the
1993 flood (return period of about 20 years) and extended for as far
as the embankments continued; in this scenario the flood flow occurred
mainly inside the incised channel with the possibility of reactivating sec-
ondary channels near the waterway and flooding of lower adjacent areas.
Figure 2.7.19 Example of flood risk map.

River Flooding 257
Figure 2.7.20 Table of scenarios associated with the risk map.
TABLE 2.7.7 BUILT-UP ZONES FOR THE TOWNS LOCATED IN AREAS NATURALLY PRONE TO FLOOD
OR FLOODED IN 1994 AND 2000 ALONG THE STRETCH OF THE RIVER PO STUDIED
Municipality Built-up zones subdivided in flood classes [m2] Flooded area [m2]
Name Buildings I II III IV Sum I-IV 1994 2000

[km2]
Brandizzo 1.29 0 17,565 0 177,059 194,624 17,565
Castiglione T.se 2.04 115 33,924 480,394 267,792 782,225 33,900 17,183
Chivasso 4.69 6,123 459,884 0 0 466,007 331,746 378,710

Gassino T.se 1.40 0 0 25,962 25,962 26,216
San Mauro T.se 3.91 47,143 720,008 673,434 414,022 1,854,607 85,666 788,112
San Raffaele Cimena 0.87 0 41 0 374,243 374,284 41
Settimo T.se 7.10 0 0 360,815 1,039,244 1,400,059
Torino 53.20 25,686 579,622 1,901,176 494 2,506,978 91,310 596,776
The effects on structures and infrastructures overlooking the bed were

forecasted only locally.
For Level 3 (elevated criticality), the area susceptible to extraordinary
flooding was obtained by the envelope of the flooded areas during the
flood that took place on November 2nd–4th, 1968 (return period between
20 and 200 years) with the 1882 active channels; in fact, the comparison
of the areas flooded in 1968 with the areas occupied by active chan-
nels of the Sesia in 1882 resulted in how the former were almost always
contained within the second and how the now relict elements, associated
with the 1882 bed, were strongly influenced by the flow distribution. The
boundaries of the areas susceptible to flood were further extended where
indications of frequent damages had emerged from the historical analy-
sis of flood events. The resulting belt is very wide in some stretches in
that it takes into account the reactivation of relict morphologies or dis-
charge routing through artificial diversion channels. The recognition of
the 1882 riverbed brought to light how many pertinent areas were gradu-
ally occupied by civil and industrial settlements. Some of these areas were
flooded during the 1968 flood with the involvement of many structures,
while others that were subsequently settled and built-up, can currently be
considered at risk.
All of the information useful during the warning and monitoring phases
of the events, obtained from the hydraulic, morphological, and historical
analyses, were synthesized in the risk scenarios, classified according to
the warning level of the forecasted flood, and represented on a map with a
scale of 1:10,000 (Figure 2.7.19), with tables detailing the expected effects
and damage (Figure 2.7.20). The risk scenarios also include works that
must be kept under control and for which the effects of flooding for the
two warning levels have been summarily described.
2.7.7 CONCLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENTS
The actions of Arpa Piemonte for forecasting floods and their potential
effects is aimed, on one side, at refining meteorological, hydrological, and
hydraulic forecasting and, on the other, at the realisation of a solid, at the
realisation geomorphological data base concerning waterways and their
fluvial environment, not only for civil protection actions but also with a
view to ordinary territorial management. The morphological analyses of
waterways conducted by theArpa Piemonte Regional Centre forTerritorial
and Geological Research had the objective of providing an overview of the
ongoing dynamics and forecasting of future tendencies in keeping with
the morphological variations that had already occurred. The results of the
studies were consolidated in geomorphological maps and in synthetic risk
maps and flood risk maps, to be used as support for decision-making with
regards to territorial planning and protection.
An example of application of the classification of areas genetically
susceptible to flooding in the Arpa Piemonte forecasting activities is to
identify the urbanized zones that may be potentially involved in floods and
classified according to their probability of inundation. This information
is important in warning activities because it allows an overview, even if
only indicative, of the distribution of subjects at risk; it is then possible
to focus on those municipalities where inhabited zones may be involved,
especially if located in flood probability classes I and II.
River Flooding 259
The classification of the flood risk areas in function of the expected

effects also provides a priori knowledge of the areas that may be involved
in the passage of high energy currents capable of seriously damaging prop-
erty and making the eventual evacuation of persons present difficult. In
fact, transversal works in zones where there are known forms of aban-
doned fluvial forms that may be reactivated, like ancient channels, may
be struck and destroyed, causing serious danger for back areas in the case
of dikes and with serious risk of isolation for communities if roadways
should be involved. These classifications are also based on the recognition
of abandoned forms that are currently slightly incised or not at all incised,
and therefore recognisable only through the specialised analyses of aerial
photography or older maps.
For this reason, the morphological approach to flood probability also
allows the contextualization of hydraulic studies because it provides a
morphological view of the territory, highlighting even the minor features
that would be irrelevant from a topographic point of view, but that strongly
condition flow dynamics. In highly urbanized areas, the morphological
approach instead finds limited application in defining the boundaries of
flood risk areas. In fact, in the case in which the flood waters involve
urbanized areas, the extension of the inundated areas, the levels of energy
reach by the current, and the preferential flow paths are influenced more by
the distribution and density of structural works like buildings, roads, and
bridges than by the morphology of the land. From this point it becomes
necessary to implement other types of analyses like historical analyses
(Giampani & Loi, 2000) and hydraulic modelling. All the territorial analy-
ses described here were carried out according to the principles of the
Geographic Information Systems that allows the realisation of data bases
that can be shared and updated.
However, in order to better exploit the potential of the Geographic
Information Systems, homogeneous and semantically correct and stand-
ardised information must be available and based on common languages
and shared procedures to be applied immediately during the creation of the
data, or at the time of survey (whether field survey or photointerpretation).
For this reason, Arpa Piemonte has organised a series of instruments and
procedures dedicated to researchers so that they can develop numerical
cartographies according to an GIS perspective as soon as the data produc-
tion phase. The result of these efforts are IT tools and instruction manuals
aimed at integrating the cartographies of the individual experts involved
in fluvial analyses into a unicum of homogeneous and comprehensible
data to be shared by all.
The Floodaware Project represents a methodological example for
mapping flood risk areas where the hydraulic, morphological, and histor-
ical analyses of the water system are synthesized in an interdisciplinary
approach for the definition of real risk scenarios imposed onto the territory,
which indicate true actions to be taken during the warning and emergency
phases, according to the level of criticality established by the regional alert
system. This work can be viewed as a basic risk study upon which ter-
ritorially competent administrations may base their civil protection plans
and define safeguards to be activated as a consequence of forecast and
surveillance evaluations of the regional Centro Funzionale assigned to
this task.
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Forecasting and
Warning 3
3.1 Meteorological Forecasting
3.1.1 PREDICTABILITY
The atmosphere is an intrinsically chaotic dynamic system with a high

number of degrees of freedom. At any given moment, its state is described
by the spatial distribution of wind, temperature, pressure, humidity and
other variables. The atmosphere, because it is a fluid, belongs to the branch
of physics called fluid dynamics and its evolution can be described in
mathematical terms like those for the conservation of mass, energy, and
momentum.
Figure 3.1.1 An example of

data coverage from WMO
(World Meteorological
Organization) soundings.
The solution of these differential equations requires the knowledge of

an initial condition from which integrations over time can be carried out.
This initial condition is the result of a complex procedure of assimilation
which evaluates the state of the atmosphere from available observations
(the so-called analyses). The fact that the supply of observed measure-
ments is limited and irregular introduces a significant factor of uncertainty
in the initial conditions that inevitably impact the forecast as a source of
error. For a forecast to be accurate, models must also be capable of real-
istically reproducing dominant atmospheric phenomena. As a matter of
fact, models can only simulate a limited number of processes according
266 Forecasting and Warning
Figure 3.1.2 An example of

data coverage from WMO
surface observation stations.
to their space and time resolution scales. This is the second main source
of forecast errors.
Finally, in spite of the surprisingly fast development of computer
resources, including increasingly powerful and faster machines, compu-
tational resources often limit the complexity and resolution for numerical
models, making it necessary to find a compromise between model accu-
racy and computing times for operational purposes. These three main
sources of error cause the accuracy of the forecasts to deteriorate with an
increase forecast time. The uncertainty of the initial conditions can never
be completely removed due to both the intrinsic error of the measuring
instruments and the limits imposed by the irregular distribution coverage.
This means that minor uncertainties related to the observation system can-
not be eliminated from the initial conditions. As a consequence, even in
the hypothesis of a perfect equation system, two initial states that differ
even slightly tend to diverge more and more rapidly with an increase in
forecast time. Observation errors are amplified in time until they nega-
tively affect forecast reliability. Over the past 15 years, the accuracy of
forecasts for the first 5 days has improved substantially, but the reduction
of error for successive days is still very limited. The scientific community
is presently aiming to resolve the problem of predictability by tackling
forecasting in terms of probability through the so-called EPS (Ensemble
Prediction System). This approach takes into account the chaotic compo-
nent of atmospheric movements that are usually neglected by deterministic
numerical models. Lorenz (1963) was the first to find out that repeating
the same simulation with slightly different values as initial conditions
resulted in drastic differences in the evolution of the numerically elabo-
rated atmosphere. The results of his experiment led to the development of
the EPS forecast technique. This is obtained by carrying out a high number
of simulations which start from different initial conditions, which are in
Meteorological Forecasting 267
turn obtained by slightly modifying the analysis. Every scenario obtained,

which may greatly differ from the others, is associated with a probability;
for example, if 25 out of 50 simulations forecast more than 20 mm of
precipitation, this event is assigned a 50% probability of occurrence.
Figure 3.1.3 Scheme of

possible atmospheric
evolution in time in a
deterministic model. Starting
from initial conditions that
differ even slightly from each
other, the trajectories that
describe the evolution in time
of the atmosphere diverge
greatly; the gap between the
arrival points evaluates the
forecast uncertainty.
While high resolution models have been proven to be very sensitive

to small variations in the initial conditions, the EPS approach derives an
advantage from this uncertainty. This technique is used by the Piemonte
meteorological service, which receives the daily results of a 51-member
ensemble produced by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range
Weather Forecasts) for precipitation and temperature. These forecasts are
used for the so-called medium range forecast (from 4 to 7 days). An exam-
ple is given in Figure 3.1.4, which refers to the probability of precipitation
for October 15th and 16th, 2000. This flood was in fact forecasted with
sufficient notice thanks to this product. Currently in Piemonte, medium
term forecasts are considerably important in the Olympic system bulletin
for the description of meteorological trends.
3.1.2 MODELS
There are two main categories of numerical weather forecasting models:

• GCM (Global Circulation Model);
• LAM (Limited Area Model).
The GCMs are the starting point of the forecast process for atmospheric
phenomena. They simulate the evolution of the atmosphere over the entire
globe and a vertical range of 30 km from the earth’s surface (even if the
area involved in the evolution of weather is limited to the first 15 km from
the surface – Troposphere). What makes this atmospheric layer particu-
larly interesting for meteorology is the presence of water vapour in its
Figure 3.1.4 Precipitation probability forecasted by ECMWF for different thresholds (1, 5, 10, 20 mm), between
October 15th and 16th, 2000.
composition; consquentially, this is the place where all phase changes and
heat flows, which are at the basis of meteorological events, occur. Due to
this vast domain of integration (the entire globe), GCMs have a low spatial
resolution (about a few hundred kilometres). In order to understand the
concept of resolution, it is necessary to consider that the continuous func-
tions that represent the dynamic variables in models are represented as
matrixes. The latter assume their values on a domain, constituted by a set
of points in space, which in turn constitute the so-called grid of the model.
The resolution is given by the distance between two contiguous points:
the smaller the interval, the greater the resolution. The type of phenomena
that may be correctly simulated is defined according to the resolution. In
fact, a model is capable of realistically reproducing phenomena that occur
on a scale that is approximately twice its characteristic scale. On the other
hand, atmospheric phenomena present an enormous variety with regards
to type as well as in space-time scales. They include the so-called large
scale, of approximately 3,000 km, the mesoscale processes, or hundreds of
kilometres, breezes and squall line processes (tens of kilometres), convec-
tive phenomena (1–2 km) and even molecular motion. GCMs can usually
correctly simulate large scale and mesoscale phenomena.
LONG-WAVE SHORT-WAVE O3 CHEMISTRY

RADIATION RADIATION CH4 OXIDATION
CLOUD
CLOUD SUBGRID-SCALE
OROGRAPHIC DRAG
DEEP
CONVECTION
TURBULENT DIFFUSION
SHALLOW
CONVECTION
Latent Sensible
Long-wave Short-wave heat heat flux
flux flux CE
flux SURFA
WIND WAVES
OCEAN MODEL
Figure 3.1.5 Scheme of atmospheric processes.
LAMs, instead, are used on more limited areas. Reducing the domain
of integration reduces the load on the computer, making it possible to
increase the spatial resolution of the model (below 40 km), so that phe-
nomena that take place on smaller space and time scales can be correctly
simulated. LAM models are used to simulate mesoscale phenomena with
features that cannot be resolved by large scale models. According to
Orlanski’s definition (1975), such phenomena regard the following scales:
• microscale, less than 2 km (vortex turbulence, for example);
• meso γ, between 2 km and 20 km (for example, convection and flows
over complex orography);
• meso β, between 20 km and 200 km (sea and land breezes);
• meso α, between 200 km and 2,000 km (for example, frontal systems
and the development of low pressure areas).
GCM models typically have a longer forecast time and are gener-
ally used for medium term forecasts, which would be from the third day
onward. Instead, the first three days of forecasts are simulated more accu-
rately by limited area models. LAMs can in turn be divided into hydrostatic
and non-hydrostatic models, according to their horizontal resolution. The
former uses the so-called hydrostatic approximation, which is an equa-
tion that assumes a perfect balance between the gravity force and pressure
gradient. In this case, vertical acceleration is derived from the difference

of vertical velocities diagnosed by the model, imposing the conservation
of mass, instead of being explicitly computed. This approximation is valid
on a horizontal scale greater than 10 km.
Non-hydrostatic processes become non-negligible when the vertical
motions in the atmosphere change rapidly, or in other words, when ver-
tical accelerations reach the same scale as horizontal ones, as in the
case of intense convective phenomena. Given H as the vertical scale
and L as the horizontal scale of a process, if H/L 1, then the approx-
imation is valid and the vertical accelerations are negligible; otherwise,
if H/L ≥ 1, non-hydrostatic conditions prevail and other equations that
explicitly describe the vertical motions are needed. Usually, LAM models
include non-hydrostatic effects when their resolution is higher than 10 km.
If the resolution is increased, in fact, the hydrostatic equation is no
longer suitable for describing phenomena like some types of lee-waves or
cumulonimbus dynamics. In these cases non-hydrostatic models must be
used.
The advantages of LAMs in terms of resolution are, however, limited
by the fact that they evolve in a restricted portion of the atmosphere and
independently from the rest of the atmospheric system, they risk giving
unrealistic results. Obviously, it would be ideal to have a GCM with a
resolution as high as that of a LAM; this, however, is not achievable
with existing computing resources. In order to sum the advantages of
LAM resolution without losing those of the GCM, the so-called “nesting”
technique is applied. This technique uses the result of a low resolution
model as an initial and boundary condition to carry out the simulation
with a higher resolution model. Nesting is used for both passing from
a GCM to a LAM and for further refining the results by telescopically
increasing the resolution of the LAM itself.
As high as the resolution of the numerical model may be, it would not
be capable of solving the complexity of phenomena and the variety of
space and time scales involved in atmospheric processes.
The so-called dynamic variables, or the atmospheric variables explic-
itly computed by the model equations, are usually:
• horizontal components of wind velocity, U and V, and the vertical one,
W, if the model is non-hydrostatic;
• the temperature, T;
• relative (or specific) humidity, q;
• pressure, p.
These variables are derived directly from the Navier-Stokes equations:
dv
ρ = −∇p + ρg − 2 × (ρv) − ∇ · (ρv v )
dt

dp cpd cpd
=− p∇ · v + − 1 · Qh
dt cvd cvd
dT dp
ρcpd = + Qh
dt dt
dqv
ρ = −∇ · Fv − (I I + I f )
dt
dqI , f
ρ = −∇ · (P I , f + F I , f ) + I I , f
dt
−1
Rv
ρ = p Rd (1 + − 1 qv − qI − qf )T (3.1.1)
Rd
where ρ is the air density, v is the vectorial wind speed, g is the accel-
eration of gravity, is the angular velocity of the earth, and the terms
marked by superscripts represent turbulent terms not explicitly resolved
by the model; Cpd represents the specific heat at a constant pressure of dry
air, Cvd is the specific heat at constant volume, QH is the heat flow, q is the
specific humidity (the superscripts refer to its various states: vapour, liq-
uid, solid), I represents the microphysical developing processes of clouds
and precipitation, F is the evaporative flow, P precipitation flow, T is tem-
perature, and Rd is the gas constant for dry air while Rv is the one for
vapour. These prognostic equations constitute the dynamics of the model.
Other meteorological fields – like precipitation, snow cover, radiative
flow, and momentum in the planetary boundary layer – are not computed
directly, but rather by means of parameterization. This is intended as the
evolution of processes that occur on scales smaller than those resolved by
the model through empirical expressions. The latter are obtained through
direct observations, rather than through mathematical formulas that would
require heavier computations. Empirical formulas are derived from trends
observed during direct measurement campaigns and express a correlation
between the actual variable and one or more dynamic variables of the
model so that the variation of the first is a function of the second. An
example of parameterization is given in the following equation for the
computation of momentum flux τ (Wu, 1982):
τ = ρaria CD U10 2 (3.1.2)

where ρaria represents air density, U10 represents 10 m height model wind
speed, and CD is a constant (drag coefficient) given by the following
formula, once again as a function of U10 .
CD = 10−3 (0.8 + 0.065 · U10 ) (3.1.3)
Thus, the momentum flux is expressed as a function of dynamic variables

(in the specific case of wind speed at 10 m) instead of the explicit equation
for its evolution in time.
Another serious issue in atmospheric modeling is the initialization
problem. Both GCMs and LAMs, initiate their computations with a few
values observed within their domain of integration. These represent the
initial condition of the actual model. Different data assimilation techniques

can be used to produce an analysis which represents the atmospheric con-
figuration from which the model starts. The more reliable and detailed this
analysis is, the more easily problems related to “spin up”, or the initial
divergence between the model and the real atmosphere, are avoided. In
a LAM configuration, an initial condition given by an analysis derived
from a global model is known as cold start. In this case the LAM slowly
reproduces the atmospheric circulation. During the first integration steps,
oscillations may develop, due to the model’s attempts to stabilise the
boundary conditions with its internal dynamics. On the other hand, when
the model analysis is obtained from a data assimilation system, the initial
condition is called warm start. Observed data are then assimilated homo-
geneously both in space and in time, through opportune weight functions
in the model, taking care to maintain its internal consistency.
Figure 3.1.6 LAMI domain

together with model
orography.
The Arpa Piemonte Centro Funzionale makes use of the global model
IFS, of ECMWF, which is distributed daily through the national meteoro-
logical centre of the Military Service (Aeronautica), and the Italian version
of the Lokal Modell, known as the Limited Area Model Italy LAMI. The
latter was developed under the auspices of the COSMO project (COnsor-
tium for Small-scale MOdelling, www.cosmo-model.org), in which the
national meteorological services of Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Greece,
and Poland joined forces with other regional centres, including Arpa
Piemonte and Arpa SIM (Emilia Romagna). These institutions stipulated a
convention that provides for the maintenance of the operational model and
its development. Since February 2001, the model produces daily forecasts
by means of numerical simulations carried out at the CINECA scientific

computation centre in Bologna. The current configuration is as follows:
• a domain covering the national territory;
• 7 km of horizontal resolution;
• 35 vertical levels;
• 72-hour forecast;
• output every 3 hours;
• 2 runs per day (00 UTC and 12 UTC);
• initial and boundary conditions given by the German global GME
model;
• assimilation of parameters aloft during the 12 hours prior to the run.
The model prognostic variables are: longitudinal and latitudinal and
vertical components of momentum, the temperature, pressure perturba-
tion from a reference condition, specific humidity, cloud water content.
The diagnostic variables are total density and fluxes of precipitation and
snow. The coordinate system is rotated and has uniform horizontal resolu-
tion and a generalised vertical coordinate system. The model uses a second
order finite differences space integration scheme and an Arakawa C-type
grid for horizontal variables and a Lorentz grid for vertical. The time inte-
gration is performed with a second order Leapfrog-type scheme (which
is explicit in a horizontal direction and implicit in a vertical direction).
The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from data interpolated
from the GME global model having higher horizontal resolution. Tiedtke’s
classic convection scheme is used.
The GME (German global circulation model) and the Swiss (called
aLMo) and the German versions (LM-DWD) of the Lokal Modell are
also used. The differences between the different LM versions are shown
in Table 3.1.1.
TABLE 3.1.1 DIFFERENCES AMONG DIFFERENT LM VERSIONS

LM CONFIGURATIONS ARPA DWD METEOSWISS
Domain Size (grid points) 234 x 272 325 x 325 385 x 325
Grid Spacing (horizontal) 0.0625° 0.0625° 0.0625°
(7 km) (7 km) (7 km)
Number of Layers 35 35 45
Time Step 40 sec 40 sec 40 sec
Forecast Range 72 hrs 48 hrs 72 hrs
Initial Time of Model Runs 00,12 UTC 00,12,18 UTC 00,12 UTC
Lateral Boundary Conditions GME GME IFS
LBC Update Frequency 1 hr 1 hr 3 hr
Initial State Nudging Scheme Nudging Scheme Nudging Scheme
External Analysis None SST, Snow Snow Depth

Depth, Soil from DWD
Moisture
3.1.3 FORECASTS AND VALIDATION: THE IMPORTANCE

OF FEEDBACK
Forecast verification, especially the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Fore-

cast) verification, is one of the most important activities of a Centro
Funzionale because it allows a better understanding of how the model
behaves in different meteorological configurations, highlights the sys-
tematic characteristics, and helps in evaluating reliability, whether for
average or extreme values, or over the long term or in the current situa-
tion. A good verification method represents different levels of feedback
concerning the warning system as a whole. It allows operators to under-
stand not only where interventions may bring improvements, but, above
all, affords the Centro Funzionale optimal exploitation of all the forecasted
fields in function of the forecast target.
In order to verify the quality of any forecasting model, there must be
the highest possible number of observed data so that a comparison is car-
ried out over a long period of time and over an area wide enough to be
considered a statistically valid sample. To reduce the problem of represen-
tativeness in verifying the mesoscale model, it is preferable to examine
detailed meteorological data like the ones provided by high-resolution
non-GTS stations, which may be integrated with those produced by radar.
For forecast validation, Arpa Piemonte uses the observed data of about
400 automatic ground stations managed by Arpa itself (Figure 3.1.7), the
data available from the COSMO project regarding northern Italy (Figure
3.1.8), and the data observed from the ground network of the Centri Fun-
zionali system that is now available at the Department of Civil Protection
(Figure 3.1.7).

the automatic stations and
warning areas in Piemonte
(left) and rain gauges
available at the Department
of Civil Protection (right).
Figure 3.1.8 Subdivision of warning areas (about 3,000 km2 ) (left); subdivision into boxes with sides of about
50 km (right); observation network available in the framework of the COSMO project.
The quality of the forecasted precipitation field is evaluated according

to statistical indices based on contingency tables. These are double entry
tables in which, for a specific threshold of precipitation accumulated over
a certain interval of time, the number of cases forecasted and observed
that surpass this threshold are evaluated as follows, where:
• A is the number of cases in which the event is neither forecasted nor
observed;
• B is the number of cases in which the event was forecasted but not
observed (false alarm);
• C is the number of cases in which the event observed was not forecasted
(misses);
• D is the number of cases in which the event observed was forecasted
(hits);
From the abovementioned values for the warning areas, the classical
quality indices are calculated (BIAS, which indicates the errors of overes-
timation or underestimation, ETS, which indicates the error of space-time
localization, FAR, which gives the number of false alarms, HRR, which
represents the number of hits), over a long period, to evaluate the average
reliability of the model, and seasonally, to evaluate the situation in func-
tion of the different climatic and phenomenological characteristics and the
modifications that the model undergoes periodically during its continual
evolution.
For further information concerning standard indices, please see
Stanski et al. (1989), Wilks (1995), and Ebert & McBride (1997, 2000).
Table 3.1.3 contains the definitions and ideal values of the classical
statistical indices.
In the following pages, the reader will find some of the results
of verifications of areal precipitation forecasts of the Lokal-Modell
TABLE 3.1.2 CONTINGENCY TABLE

EXPECTED
OBSERVED
NO YES
NO A B
YES C D
TABLE 3.1.3 DEFINITION AND IDEAL VALUES OF

CLASSICAL STATISTICAL INDEXES
ideal BIAS = 1
ideal FAR = 0
ideal HRR = 1
where
ideal ETS = 1
non-hydrostatic model developed within COSMO. The Italian version of

this model, called LAMI, is the limited area model used by the Depart-
ment of Civil Protection. Furthermore, the global model of the ECMWF
and the subjective numerical forecast of forecasters in Arpa Piemonte are
also subject to verification.
Oberto et al. (2003) and Milelli et al. (2003) examined the depen-
dence of LAMI QPF on the characteristics of the zone and, in particular,
on its dimension. They considered the different possible results accord-
ing to whether the model output was averaged on boxes of different areas
(0.25◦ ×0.25◦ , 0.50◦ ×0.50◦ , 0.75◦ ×0.75◦ ) or on warning areas. In these
studies, where the Piemonte network was considered, different perfor-
mances were obtained according to the different areas. Following up on
the work with warning areas for Northern Italy and using the observation
network available through the COSMO project (Figure 3.1.8), the above
results were confirmed (Figure 3.1.9).
The BIAS of LAMI QPF for thresholds greater than 35 mm/24 h indi-
cates a lower overestimate for the QPF on the warning area, while the ETS
1.8 0.45
1.6 0.40
1.4 0.35
1.2 0.30
BIAS
ETS
1.0 0.25
0.8 0.20
0.6 0.15
0.4 box 0.10 box
0.2 area 0.05 area
0.0 0.00
5 10 10 35 50 75 5 10 20 35 50 75
mm/24h mm/24h
Figure 3.1.9 BIAS (left) and ETS (right) for quantitative precipitation forecasts of the LAMI model (12 UTC
run) averaged over warning areas or boxes with sides of 50 km (Figure 3.1.8) during the period of June
2002-August 2003.
index shows better accuracy, considering each threshold, for the areas with
respect to the boxes. The QPF on the warning areas demonstrates better
results than the QPF calculated on boxes with dimensions comparable to
the zones. This result represents important positive feedback: the criteria
for defining warning areas are valid to obtain improved performance in
quantitative precipitation forecasts.
To evaluate improvements in the subjective analysis of the quantifica-
tion of precipitation information, the skills of subjective forecasting (PSA)
are compared with those of the LAMI model. Figure 3.1.10 provides the
results obtained varying the thresholds of the different statistical indices
relative to the areal average over the 24 hours of the second day of forecast
(+24/+48 hours of forecast) and to the period between January 2003 and
October 2004. In this analysis it is possible to carry out the hypothesis test
developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated
with the bootstrap method to establish the real difference between the skill
scores of the two models.
2.5 0.50
0.45
2.0 0.40
0.35
1.5 0.30
BIAS
ETS
0.25
1.0 0.20
0.15
psa psa
0.5 lami 0.10 lami
0.05
0.0 0.00
1 2 4 8 16 32 1 2 4 8 16 32
mm/24h mm/24h
Figure 3.1.10 BIAS and ETS indices as a function of the QPF threshold produced subjectively (PSA) and
by the LAMI model.
The error bar in Figure 3.1.10 indicates 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of the
resampled distribution assigned to the reference model. It can be noted that
the test is symmetric: the reference model can be the competitive model
and vice-versa. The performance difference is statistically significant if
the skill score of the competitor model is outside a given confidence
interval (in this case 95%) of the resampled distribution.
Figure 3.1.10 indicates that both the forecasts overestimate the QPF,
especially the PSA for low thresholds (less than 4 mm/24 h): there are
no significant differences for thresholds greater than 8 mm/24 h in terms
of BIAS, while for thresholds greater than 16 mm/24 h, the PSA is more
accurate than the LAMI (ETS index).
In conclusion, we include a synthesis of more general results obtained
from validation studies (Turco et al., 2005):
• in spite of the overall improvement on a global scale and the fact that
the resolution of the limited area models has increased considerably
over recent years, the QPF produced by meteorological models has
not improved enough to allow it to be used directly. QPF subjective
forecasting continues to offer the best performance;
• in regions with complex orography (especially Alpine reliefs), the pat-
tern of precipitation forecasted is still not satisfactory; in particular,
there is overestimation in the maximum precipitation upwind and under-
estimation downwind (this effect is more pronounced during the winter
than the summer);
• generally, the 12 UTC runs demonstrate better skills than the 00 UTC
runs. In fact, the analysis of the 12 UTC can count on a longer cycle
of assimilation and on a greater number of available observations. Fur-
thermore, the initialization of the model from a more energetic state (12
UTC) allows a better representation of the triggering of precipitation
and a greater destabilisation of the atmosphere;
• the tendency of the model to perform worse during the summer;
• in general, the performance is less satisfactory when the threshold is
increased, or in other words, forecasting skills diminish for intense
rains. However, this result is also influenced by a small number of data
relative to the high thresholds that make the statistics less significant;
• there is a daily error cycle and, in particular, the worsening with the
forecast time is evident; furthermore, a skills periodicity of 24 with
greater BIAS values during the central hours of the day has been noted;
• considering more than 60% of the Italian territory, it can be stated
that LAMI overestimates most of the zones considered, especially the
Alpine ones, while the ECMWF model underestimates in most areas,
especially along the coasts;
• the new configurations introduced (for example, variational soil mois-
ture analysis, the scheme for prognostic precipitation, the correction
of some variables forecasted by means of assimilation of GTS obser-
vations through the Nudging technique) in operational versions of the
Lokal-Modell have brought significant improvements to the QPF.
In reference to the verification process of the quantitative use of mete-

orological forecasting in the Arpa Piemonte warning system, the main
conclusions are:
• the added value of the subjective analysis in providing QPF for warning
areas is significant: the performance of the warning system QPF is
generally good;
• the QPFs produced by meteorological models for the warning areas
demonstrate better results than the QPFs calculated on boxes with
dimensions comparable to the zones. This result represents an impor-
tant positive feedback: the criteria of definition of warning areas are
valid for obtaining improved QPF performance;
• it is difficult to determine long term systematic trends (in the Piemonte
warning system the quantitative precipitation forecasts on the warning
areas have been issued daily since March 2000) concerning the sub-
jective performance of the QPF, given the great annual variation in the
predictability and quantity of precipitation;
• performances are better for thresholds of 10 mm/24 h than for
1 mm/24 h; it is generally more difficult to obtain good performances
for weak and local rainfall forecasts that are difficult for models
to reproduce, while more consistent precipitation linked to synoptic
forcings are forecasted with greater precision;
• the quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warning areas present
decreasing overestimations considering the Alpine zones to the North,
then the southern areas, and finally the plains, where there is the best
space-time localization.
3.1.4 PROSPECTS AND TECHNIQUES FOR IMPROVING

METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING
A meteorological model is not a static and immobile tool over time, but
a dynamic system that evolves according to the most recent innovations
of science and technology. The methods for improving a model may be
divided into two categories:
1) acting from inside by developing new parameterization schemes, new
numerical schemes, an increase in the space-time resolution, or by
inserting improved data assimilation techniques;
2) acting from outside with post-processing techniques applied to the
direct output of the model.
Concerning the development of new schemes, the model was tested
on some intense rainfall events in Piemonte as part of the Interreg IIIB
Hydroptimet project. In particular, the case of November 25th, 2002 was
taken into consideration. Different simulations were carried out differing
from the reference simulation (which was simply called s4) in the param-
eterization of some physical processes or in numerical schemes. The goal
was to highlight which of these schemes had the greatest impact on rainfall
forecasting. The results of the different simulations were mainly analysed
in terms of comparison between the values of precipitations forecasted
and observed over the warning areas in Piemonte.
More specifically, the following changes were made: the convection
scheme, the value of the Raymond filter applied to the orography, and the
number of vertical levels defined in the model; furthermore, other prog-
nostic variables like the ice phase of clouds (produced by the sublimation
of water vapour) and rainy and snowy precipitation were introduced.
The set of simulations produced is given in Table 3.1.4.
The results obtained with this set of simulations, limited to this case
study, indicate that the change that has the greatest effect on the localiza-
tion and quantification of rain forecasted is the introduction of the new
prognostic variables. This is especially true in a zone with a complex orog-
raphy, where the exact consideration of the advection of the precipitation
across the reliefs is fundamental. The results of this configuration are
further improved by increasing the number of vertical levels.
The meteorological model used at Arpa Piemonte has a resolution of
about 7 km, but may initially produce results at a higher resolution, pro-
vided some substantial changes are made in the equations describing the
physical phenomena. One possibility (from a purely numerical point of
view) of increasing the resolution of the model is to use a multiscale
approach, that is to say, multiple grids with space (and time) resolu-
tions that can also vary in dimensions and that transmit information to
each other. The advantage is a dynamic interaction between different
scales at a reduced computational cost, an improved representation of
the geometry of the domain and of the physical forcings, an improved
conservation of mass, and a more accurate and robust simulation of small
scale dynamic phenomena, as well as an improvement of the large scale
simulation. For this reason a testing phase has begun with numerical exper-
iments and applications to relevant cases for the Olympic simulations.
The purpose of these ongoing efforts is to obtain very high resolu-
tion forecasts (up to 1 km) by using innovative techniques for refining
the grids.
From the point of view of meteorological modelling and its appli-
cations, the prospect for the next few years is to reach an operational
resolution of approximately one km in areas that are large enough to
represent phenomena like the formation and propagation of storm clouds.
In addition to increasing the resolution in order to allow a more detailed
description of turbulent motion, it is necessary to refine the description of
those physical processes that occur in the atmosphere and on the earth’s
surface, causing exchanges of energy and the transformation of water into
its different states. For this purpose, other parameterization techniques
must be studied. The analysis of the interaction of surface geomorphologi-
cal parameters (both meteo-climatic factors and parameters inherent to the
vegetation and the ground) with the surface layer of the atmosphere, with
TABLE 3.1.4 LIST OF SIMULATIONS MADE
S4 Reference
S5 Without orographic filter
S6 With stronger orographic filter
S7 With ice and snow phase calculated
prognosticly
S8 With all water phases calculated
prognosticly
S9 Kain Fritsch convective scheme
SA Without convective scheme
SB 45 vertical levels without orographic filter
45 vertical levels without orographic filter
SC
and all water phases calculated prognosticly
45 vertical levels without orographic filter
SD
and ice and snow phase calculated prognosticly
particular reference to the processes of air-land and geosphere-biosphere

interaction from a hydrological point of view can be conducted with the
help of SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) models. These mod-
els simulate the physical processes at the ground-atmosphere interface,
reproducing energetic and hydraulic balances.
1.3
1.2
1.1
BIAS
1.0 s4
Figure 3.1.11 Average BIAS s8
over Piemonte from 00 UTC, 0.9 sC
November 25th 2002 to 00
UTC, November 26th 2002 0.8
for different configurations of 5 10 20 35
the meteorological model. threshold (mm)
Arpa Piemonte uses a SVAT model for operative agricultural-

meteorological applications: the LSPM (Land Surface Process Model),
developed by the University of Torino (Loglisci et al., 2001). The struc-
ture of the LSPM can be outlined as follows: the spatial domain is limited
above by a reference level in the atmosphere above the vegetation and
below by the ground layer under the plants’ root system. In the atmo-
sphere, the boundary parameters are: temperature, humidity, wind, global
radiation, pressure, and precipitation at the height of the vegetation. The
vegetation is considered as a uniform layer (big-leaf approximation) in
both the atmosphere and the substratum, while the soil can be subdivided
into three or more layers (as the user prefers). Both are described by a
series of physical parameters.
The LSPM model assumes that the precipitation that reaches the
ground partially infiltrates into the first layer of the soil until it is saturated
(the excess water runs off), and that the roots extract humidity from the
layers of soil around them (transpiration). The sensitive and latent heat
fluxes are calculated according to the formulation of the analogy with
electrical circuits. The typical outputs of the model are: net radiation, heat
fluxes , temperature, and humidity in the substratum, in the air, and at the
vegetation level. The use of the model described above is important for the
forecasting of physical variables that cannot be easily measured, but that
are of fundamental importance from an agricultural point of view, like the
humidity content or the ground temperature, and find application in the
forecasting of late and early frosts or the establishment of agricultural-
meteorological conditions that are critical for the growth of particular
parasites.
The future of research in the field of mathematics as applied to
meteorology is, moreover, also related to the assimilation techniques of
meteorological data that aim at the optimal usage of all the atmosphere
observation data that arrives daily from fixed and mobile stations, weather
balloons, airplanes, ships, buoys, and satellites.
Making better use of these observations, especially satellite informa-
tion, which even though affected by notable errors of precision, are very
dense in space and time, requires mathematical instruments based on par-
ticular versions of the same forecasting models and so-called variational
algorithms. To solve these problems, a computational power greater than
the one used for meteorological models is needed.
Only through the use of such assimilation systems is it possible to
fully exploit certain observations like those from satellites. The satellite,
in fact, receives a great number of measurements of the radiance coming
from the surface below, from which it is possible to indirectly derive esti-
mates of the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere. For many years,
these remote measurements were of limited usefulness because they were
difficult to translate into information useful for atmospheric forecasting;
newer generations of meteorological satellites and new measuring instru-
ments that are much more articulated and sophisticated (radiometers) have
improved the situation.
Another field in which work is being done to improve model results is
the post-processing, or the treatment (usually based on statistics) of direct
meteorological model output. The post-processing methods used as part
of the services distributed by Arpa are:
• Kalman Filter;
• Multimodel Ensemble and SuperEnsemble.
These are currently applied to the surface meteorological parameters
that present variations on a space-time scale smaller than those resolved
by general circulation or limited area models. Therefore, the physical pro-

cesses that describe their evolution cannot be calculated explicitly by the
model, but must be parameterized off-line by using appropriate schemes.
In fact, the direct use of the output from a model does not yet provide sat-
isfactory forecasts; these techniques, in aiming to reduce the gap between
the model and the observations trajectories, tend to favour the latter.
In order to take into account extreme atmospheric variability, pre-
dictors and predictants could be used only during the final 2–3 weeks
and their statistical link should be evaluated every day. In this context,
recursive methods are the best option.
Attributing a greater weight to recent data results in a greater impact
on the estimates of the coefficients, which more faithfully reflect present
conditions. The Kalman filter technique (Kalman, 1960; Kalman & Bucy,
Figure 3.1.12 Example of soil

moisture calculated with the
LSPM model.
Figure 3.1.13 Example of soil

temperature calculated with
the LSPM model.
Interpolator
Model input Notes
(forecasting the
(GRIB file) (text file)
measured data)
Covariance
matrix Kalman filter
(data/models)
Meteorological products
Regione Olympic Heat Wave

Piemonte Meteo Forecast ……… ………
Figure 3.1.14 Flow chart of Meteo Bulletin Bulletin Bulletin
the Kalman algorithm.
1961) allows the construction of an optimal recursive scheme. The Kalman

filter algorithm is presented below in more detail:
• calculation of the filter pay-off matrix;
• calculation of the innovation;
• calculation of filter pay-off;
• updating of the filter parameters;
• updating of the covariance matrix;
• updating of the filter pay-off matrix;
• calculation of the correct forecast.
The regional meteorological service currently performs several runs
of the Kalman filter on different models (ECMWF IFS, LAMI, in the
runs at 00 UTC and 12 UTC) and on different meteorological variables
(air temperature, humidity, dew point, wet bulb temperature, heat index,
humidex, discomfort index). The Kalman filter temperature forecast at
mountain stations are not sufficiently accurate. For this reason, work has
been done in two directions to improve the performance:
• modifications made to the internal parameters of the filter (x and p), in
order to give greater freedom to the filter’s response to input variations;
good results were not obtained because good and bad forecasts often
alternate in the performances of the models. Therefore the filter presents
a response to these variations that induces resonance and, therefore, the
subsequent worsening of the forecast;
• improvement of input (DMO, Direct Model Output): rather than using
the temperature at 2 m calculated by the model, the temperature fore-
casts at a pressure level higher and lower than the station altitude are
used and interpolated at the station altitude by means of the geopoten-

tial. In this way a reduction of the DMO error and, above all, a reduction
in the daily forecast variability were obtained, allowing an improved
functioning of the Kalman filter. Figures 3.1.15 and 3.1.16 respec-
tively demonstrate the reduction of the average error and of the average
quadratic errors obtained with the interpolation of the temperatures for
four stations of the Piemonte network.
ecm12 t2m DMO lkd00 t2m DMO alm00 int. t DMO ecm12 t2m KAL lkd00 t2m KAL alm00 int. t KAL
ecm12 int. t DMO lkd00 int. t DMO ecm12 int. t KAL lkd00 int. t KAL
2.0 2.0
MEAN ERROR (°C)
MEAN ERROR (°C)

0.0 0.0
-2.0 -2.0
-4.0 -4.0
-6.0 -6.0
-8.0 -8.0
-10.0 -10.0
-12.0 -12.0
Torino - 240 m Torino - 240 m
-14.0 -14.0
2.0 2.0
MEAN ERROR (°C)
MEAN ERROR (°C)
0.0 0.0
-2.0 -2.0
-4.0 -4.0
-6.0 -6.0
-8.0 -8.0
-10.0 -10.0
-12.0 -12.0
Bardonecchia Prerichard - 1353 m Bardonecchia Prerichard - 1353 m
-14.0 -14.0
2.0 2.0
MEAN ERROR (°C)
MEAN ERROR (°C)
0.0 0.0
-2.0 -2.0
-4.0 -4.0
-6.0 -6.0
-8.0 -8.0
-10.0 -10.0
-12.0 -12.0
Sestriere - 2020 m Sestriere - 2020 m
-14.0 -14.0
2.0 2.0
MEAN ERROR (°C)
MEAN ERROR (°C)
0.0 0.0
-2.0 -2.0
-4.0 -4.0
-6.0 -6.0
-8.0 -8.0
-10.0 -10.0
-12.0 -12.0
Sestriere Mt Banchetta - 2480 m Sestriere Mt Banchetta - 2480 m
-14.0 -14.0
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
forecast time forecast time
Figure 3.1.15 Mean error in the temperature forecast with respect to the observations of four regional network
stations at different altitudes (one in the plains, one in the mid mountains, and two in high mountains)
Left: direct output of models; right: Kalman filter output. ecm12 t2m: temperature at 2 m of the ECMWF IFS;
ecm12 int.t: interpolated temperature of the ECMWF IFS; lkd00 t2m: temperature at 2 m of the LM-DWD;
lkd00 int.t: Interpolated temperature of the LM-DWD; alm00 int.t: interpolated temperature of aLMo.
A second method of post-processing used at Arpa Piemonte is the

Multimodel approach that consists of the simultaneous use of more than
one model for estimating meteorological parameters. This method was
proposed by Krishnamurti et al. (1999) with the use of an Ensemble of
ecm12 t2m DMO lkd00 t2m DMO alm00 int. t DMO ecm12 t2m KAL lkd00 t2m KAL alm00 int. t KAL
ecm12 int. t DMO lkd00 int. t DMO ecm12 int. t KAL lkd00 int. t KAL
9.0 9.0
8.0 8.0
7.0 7.0
RMSE (°C)
RMSE (°C)
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 Torino - 240 m 1.0 Torino - 240 m
0.0 0.0
9.0 9.0
8.0 8.0
7.0 7.0
RMSE (°C)
RMSE (°C)
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
Bardonecchia Prerichard - 1353 m Bardonecchia Prerichard - 1353 m
0.0 0.0
9.0 9.0
8.0 8.0
7.0 7.0
RMSE (°C)
RMSE (°C)
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
Sestriere - 2020 m Sestriere - 2020 m
0.0 0.0
9.0 9.0
8.0 8.0
7.0 7.0
RMSE (°C)
RMSE (°C)
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 Sestriere Mt Banchetta - 2480 m
1.0 Sestriere Mt Banchetta - 2480 m
0.0 0.0
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
forecast time forecast time
Figure 3.1.16 Root mean square error in the temperature forecast with respect to the observations of four
regional network stations at different altitudes (one in the plains, one in the mid mountains, and two in
high mountains) Left: direct output of models; right: Kalman filter output. ecm12 t2m: temperature at 2 m
of the ECMWF IFS; ecm12 int.t: interpolated temperature of the ECMWF IFS; lkd00 t2m: temperature at 2 m
of the LM-DWD; lkd00 int.t: interpolated temperature of the LM-DWD; alm00 int.t: interpolated
temperature of aLMo.
suitably weighted models. Krishnamurti et al. (2000) also proposed the

Multimodel SuperEnsemble, which uses different weights for each model
considered. These weights are calculated for each model, in each point,
and at each time-step according to a certain previous period of time called
the training period. It is then hypothesized that the average systematic
error and the weight of each model are constant also for the following
forecast period.
In detail, the Multimodel Ensemble and SuperEnsemble algorithm
works in the following way:
1) the calculation of the forecast averages for each model and of the average
of the observations during the training period;
MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3 …… MODEL N

(GRIB files) (GRIB files) (GRIB files) (GRIB files)
Interpolator Interpolator Interpolator Interpolator

…… Notes
(forecasting the (forecasting the (forecasting the (forecasting the
(text files)
measured data) measured data) measured data) measured data)
Calculation of weights during training period
Statistical values
Weights of
during training
each model
period
Multimodel Ensemble and SuperEnsemble application
Forecast Temperature
Wetness
on warning forecast in ………
forecast
areas alpine areas
Figure 3.1.17 Flow chart of the SuperEnsemble algorithm.
2) calculation of SuperEnsemble weights;

3) calculation of the forecast for the Ensemble and for the SuperEnsemble.
This technique was used for the temperature forecast at 2 m (Cane &
Milelli, 2005a) and its potential extension to other variables like relative
humidity and precipitation is currently being studied (Cane & Milelli,
2005b). It should be emphasized that the temperature forecasts of limited
area models contain serious errors in determining the daily cycle, espe-
cially in the mid mountains and in the high mountains, as noted in the
figure that follows.
Instead, notable improvements can be made at all altitudes with the
application of this technique (Figures 3.1.18, 3.1.19, and 3.1.20), with
results comparable to those obtained with the Kalman filter, but with the
advantage of being extendable to other variables. The Kalman filter, in
fact, is a complex technique and cannot be generalized to other parameters.
Furthermore, another disadvantage of the Kalman filter is that it cannot
take into account sudden variations of the meteorological conditions.
Stations at altitude < 700 m

Figure 3.1.18 Comparison of January 2005 mean
6
Temperature (°C)
forecasted data from the
direct output of the model (in 4 Measured data
blue) and from the Multimodel 2
SuperEnsemble
SuperEnsemble (in red) with 0 model
observation data from the ⫺2 Model output
Arpa Piemonte network ⫺4
temperature for plains 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
stations (altitude < 700 m). Forecast time (h)
Figure 3.1.19 Comparison of Stations at altitude between 700 m and 1500 m

forecasted data from the January 2005 mean
Temperature (°C)
direct output of the model (in 5

blue) and from the Multimodel Measured data
SuperEnsemble (in red) with 0 SuperEnsemble
observation data from the model
⫺5
Arpa Piemonte network Model output
temperature for mid-mountain ⫺10
stations (700 m < 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
altitude < 1500 m). Forecast time (h)
Figure 3.1.20 Comparison of Stations at altitude >1500 m

forecasted data from the January 2005 mean
direct output of the model (in
Temperature (°C)
0
blue) and from the Multimodel Measured data
SuperEnsemble (in red) with
Super Ensemble
observation data from the ⫺5
model
Arpa Piemonte network
Model output
temperature for high ⫺10
mountain stations 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
(altitude > 1500 m). Forecast time (h)
3.1.5 THE WEATHER WATCH BULLETIN
The National System of Centri Funzionali promoted by the Department of

Civil Protection has proposed the realisation of a network of operational
centres for the national warning system with purposes of civil protection
that, through real time forecasting, monitoring, and surveillance of mete-
orological events and the consequential effects on the territory, would be a
support to the authorities in charge of warnings in making their decisions.
The Directive of the President of the Ministerial Council dated Febru-
ary 27th, 2004 (supp. G.U. n. 59 11/03/2004) modified by the Directive of
the President of the Ministerial Council (G.U. n. 55 8/03/2005) dictates the
operative guidelines for the management of this warning system. In par-
ticular, it defines the institutional subjects and territorial organs involved
and establishes the tools and modality of transmitting the information. The
national warning system therefore requires a forecasting phase with the
assessment of the expected meteorological situation as well as the effects

that such a situation may have on the ground, following by a monitor-
ing and surveillance phase. Based on this, the Department must issue a
national Weather Watch Bulletin to the public on a daily basis, as well
as a National Criticality Bulletin in a more reserved form. The individ-
ual meteorological services or the meteorological forecast areas of the
decentralised Centri Funzionali must instead issue, in a reserved form,
notification of adverse weather conditions and contextual criticality if nec-
essary in their own warning zone, indicated as significantly homogeneous
territorial environments for the expected occurrence of the typology and
severity of the intense precipitation and its relative impact. Indicators of the
probable occurrence of the prefigured scenarios as well as consequential
ground effects are identified for each zone and for each risk type.
Consequently, a set of values of the indicators that determines a thresh-
old system articulated on two levels of moderate and high criticality is
defined for each type of risk, as well as an ordinary situation base level
in which possible criticalities are believed to be acceptable by the popu-
lation. Following a Weather Advisory, the individual assessments of the
criticality level expected in the different warning areas of the regional
territory are given.
The Centro Funzionale Weather Watch Bulletin of the Piemonte
Region, which may be followed by a Regional Criticality Advisory, reports
the possibility of occurrence of the meteorological phenomena listed
below, over the following 60 hours (the afternoon and the two following
days), referred to the warning areas.
Thunderstorms, intense and localized phenomena

Highly localized, very intense precipitation over brief time periods (heavy
and very heavy showers or storms) is taken into consideration. These
phenomena may lead to the exceeding of critical hydrometric levels of
National Regional
Centro Funzionale Centro Funzionale
make
NATIONAL REGIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL METEOROLOGICAL
WATCH BULLETIN WATCH BULLETIN
issue
send
NATIONAL REGIONAL
CRITICALITY CRITICALITY
BULLETIN BULLETIN
Regional Civil
Protection
Territorial Government Regional Offices Provincial Offices

Figure 3.1.21 Flow chart of Offices
the information.
Figure 3.1.22 Example of the

Weather Watch Bulletin.
the smaller drainage network (which have a torrential nature) with the
development of flooding in urban areas due to inadequate drainage, or of
mass transport and landslides localized in mountainous or hilly sectors.
Storms may also include strong wind gusts, especially in correspondence
to the most active cells, with consequential inconvenience for human
activities and, in particular, damage to vegetation, light poles, and roofs.
Furthermore, it is possible to have intense storms associated with hail,
which causes damages to crops, traffic systems, and people. In consider-
ation of the tremendous impact that storms have on the territory, specific
studies have been carried out in order to characterise the qualitative and
quantitative aspects of thunderstorms, with the aim of creating an oper-
ational instrument for warnings in case of significant convective events
capable of predicting the occurrence of a storm event in probabilistic or
deterministic terms (with a limited but known margin of error). In par-
ticular, a study of the most common thermodynamic indices (K, CAPE,
Lift, SWEAT) was carried out as predictor of storm events, beginning
with ECMWF analysis and observed lightning and precipitation data.
This analysis was carried out on several case studies and over several
time periods in order to verify the reliability of the indices and to identify
the thresholds that are representative on a local level. The verification of
the capability of LAMI in predicting storms through the more signifi-
cant indices obtained with the previously described analysis is currently
ongoing.
Rain
The precipitation is computed for each warning areas as the average value
of precipitation forecasted over a 12 or 24-hour interval. The quantities
of precipitation exceeding the reference thresholds are identified. The
thresholds are differentiated for each warning area and are represented by
a fraction of the moderate criticality threshold.
Exceeding these thresholds may lead to the exceeding of critical hydro-

metric levels along the main rivers with a consequential development of
flooding, mass transport along the rapid flow, and landslides in moun-
tainous and hilly sectors. For this reason, the most important field is
clearly the value of precipitation forecasted by the models. In particu-
lar, the global circulation models provide a better indication of average
values and are more reliable for long term forecasts, while more intense
quantities of precipitation are better forecasted by limited area models,
even if the maximum forecasted values are often is very different from
those observed, in terms of space-time localization and in quantity, as
demonstrated by the example in Figures 3.1.23 and 3.1.25, during the
convective event of September 15th, 2004.
For these reasons the forecaster must not directly use the field fore-
casted by the models, but must also elaborate (and filter) the information
according to a series of preliminary considerations such as:
• a comparison of the synoptic configuration forecasted by different
models paying attention to the flow over the region at all levels
(consistency);
Figure 3.1.23 Field of

observed precipitation.

precipitation forecasted by
the ECMWF (UK) global
model.

the LAMI (Italy) model.
• assessment of the shift between the first forecast times (+12/+6 h) and
the measurements (satellite images and data observed on a synoptic
scale);
• comparison of the configuration forecasted by the same model with dif-
ferent initialization time and with forecasts of the previous day (internal
consistency);
• assessment of seasonal characteristics;
• assessment of the performance of models during previous days
(validation);
• comparison with previous reference situations (in case of doubts and/or
critics).
The analysis of the meteorological situation and of its probable evo-

lution is therefore defined in great detail. The regional area is taken
specifically into consideration and the attention is focused on each indi-
vidual expiration dates to which the forecast is extended (currently the
second day following the day of issue is reached) and on some specific
aspects:
• the presence of instability (convective and frontal);
• interaction of the flow with the orography (induction, modification,
intensification, control of precipitation);
• localisation of pressure lows (ground/altitude).
Only at the end of the evolution process is the meteorologist capable
of producing a reasonable quantitative forecast of precipitation over the
region.
Other important information associated with the intensity of precipi-
tation is the forecast of the level above which the precipitation becomes
snow. The forecasting of this quota is based firstly on the forecast of the
freezing level in the atmosphere: provided that that a falling snowflake
can remain in a solid state until about 2−3◦ C, the level of the snow alti-
tude is determined as a consequence, and is normally situated at about
400–500 m below the freezing level. However, the thermal stratification
of the atmosphere can be very different from the standard thermal pro-
file, which is equal to about 6◦ C/1,000 m. Recent studies revealed that
in almost isothermal conditions of temperature profile or with weakly
reducing temperature with altitude, or even in the presence of thermal
inversions, the difference between freezing and snow level can reach as
much as 1,500 m. Vice-versa, if the atmosphere presents a highly unsta-
ble stratification with a marked reduction in temperature with altitude,
the snow level can be only 100–200 m below freezing level. For the
forecast of the thermal stratification, thermodynamic soundings are pro-
duced at all levels by the meteorological limited area models in Torino,
Cuneo, Alessandria, Novara, Verbania, Susa, Cesana, Domodossola, and
Aosta. Another useful indication is provided by the examination of the
latest soundings observed at Milano Linate and Cuneo Levaldigi and
by their comparison with the soundings forecasted by the latest run of
the model.
For the various localities, and in particular for those in the plains, it
must be remembered that the temperature values at 2 m, which are also
fundamental in identifying the type of precipitation forecasted for the
locality, are subject to variations caused by radiative effects during the
day. Therefore, in order to obtain the most correct temperature forecast
possible for individual localities, it is necessary to correct systematic
errors and minimize casual errors by applying suitable statistical filters,
which have been previously elaborated by meteorological models, to the
direct output of temperature variable.
Snowfall
The forecasted snowfall intensity is examined in terms of classes. The
reference thresholds vary according to the altitude (lower or higher than
700 m) and according to the time interval considered (12 or 24 hours).
The exceeding of the established thresholds results in serious difficulties
in carrying out fundamental human activities like public and private trans-
portation. In particular, various problems may arise, including mobility
drawbacks due to slowdowns and snow-removal operations, the inter-
ruption in the supply of services (electricity, telephone, etc.) caused by
damage to distribution structures overloaded with snow, and the tempo-
rary isolation of hamlets and individual homes. Furthermore, persistent
intense snowfall may cause the structural collapse of the roofs of civil and
industrial buildings.
Frosts in the plains

Early and late frosts (before December and after February) will be sig-
nalled with particular reference to their impact on agriculture (with
possible crop damage) and traffic circulation (difficulty in travelling along
all main and secondary roadways). The Arpa Piemonte Regional Fore-
casting and Environmental Monitoring Area implemented and developed
a model that offers a 24-hour numerical forecast of temperature and road

surface conditions, beginning with the observed air temperature values,
dew point, relative humidity, cloudiness, wind speed, and precipitation.
Wind
Notification will be given regarding conditions in the mountains that may
cause inconveniences for human activities at high altitudes and in the
plains, especially in the case of foehn with possible local damages to
vegetation and buildings. Reference thresholds are defined according to
the altitude (1,500 or 3,000 m). The criticality is linked to potential damage
of temporary structures, problematic road and traffic conditions, potential
collapse of pavilions, inconveniences for human activities at high altitudes,
and flight safety. The highest criticality regards the forecast of katabatic
winds (foehn), which are strongly influenced by the complex orography
of the region. Studies are underway to empirically develop a foehn index
that takes into account the parameters of wind speed, surface pressure,
humidity, and temperature.
For this kind of forecast, an excellent support is the direct output of the
wind at the various altitudes supplied by the models, especially limited
area ones that have a high-resolution representation of the orography and
are therefore more realistic. Another indication is supplied by examining
the presence of strong baric gradients (higher than 4 hPa, responsible for
intense wind) and thermal gradients (4.5◦ C at 925 and 850 hPa and 6◦ C
at 700 hPa, which imply a stable atmosphere downwind) between the Po
River Valley and the Alps.
Fog
Low visibility will be signalled with particular reference to problems
related to road and traffic conditions (for both main and secondary roads)
and flight safety (airports). Currently this parameter is estimated mainly
according to the visibility and humidity data observed on the ground.
From a forecasting point of view, it is important to take into consid-
eration that fog situations normally occur under anticyclonic conditions
with the presence or advection of humidity in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. The examination of the situation, together with the analy-
sis of the forecasted soundings to determine the development of thermal
inversions, supplies useful indications. In the case of persistent fog,
the METEOSAT geostationary satellite images of the visible band and
the analysis of the observed soundings offer considerable support in
identifying the phenomena and in forecasting its short-term evolution. The
forecasting of postfrontal fogs is more difficult than the one for radiation
fogs since a precise forecast of clearing times and wind arrival is needed;
delays or anticipations of even a few hours may determine radically dif-
ferent situations. Even in this case, valid help is offered by the detailed
examination of the atmosphere in the lower layers through the planned
soundings.
A study is underway to develop an initial definition of a statistical index

for forecasting fogs based on the correlation between relative humidity,
wind speed, temperature, presence of a thermal inversion in lower layers as
in the LAMI model and corresponding visibility values. Moreover, initial
contacts have been made with the University of Bonn for the development
of a new model of cloud microphysics to be integrated into the operational
meteorological model, even if the direct model forecast of this variable
is very costly from a point of view of calculation time and therefore not
very useful.
Heat waves in the plains

This is where the assessments carried out in the Heat Wave Forecast Bul-
letin for provincial capitals are reported. This variable takes into account
the discomfort suffered by the population as a consequence of prolonged
heat with elevated humidity and no ventilation.
Meteorological conditions of extreme heat and their impact on health
constitute a very common problem in Italy, especially after the events of the
summer 2003, during which northern Italy was subjected to long periods
characterised by high temperatures and humidity with values well above
seasonal averages during both daytime and night-time. Epidemiologi-
cal studies indicate that these conditions cause physiological discomfort
among the population: the subjects mostly affected are persons suffer-
ing from cardiorespiratory diseases and elderly people who have reduced
thermoregulatory capacities.
The possibility of forecasting meteorological variations for brief peri-
ods with their potential impact on human health allows the planning and
management of prevention interventions and the reduction of damage. In
order to provide the city of Torino and the region of Piemonte with a spe-
cific warning system for preventing the effects of heat waves on health,
the Environmental Forecasting and Monitoring Area, in collaboration with
the Environmental Epidemiology Service, has activated a project to anal-
yse and study historical climatological and epidemiological data for the
purpose of realizing a forecasting model of adverse meteorological con-
ditions represented by the presence of heat waves and, in particular, for
the urban area of Torino aimed at estimating the impact of heat waves on
mortality.
The meteorological parameters used by the model are: maximum
temperature, apparent maximum and minimum temperature (Steadman,
1984), number of consecutive days with high apparent temperatures,
ozone levels, and other meteorological parameters necessary for the
calculation of some public health indices. The bio-meteorological thresh-
olds of these indices are chosen in function of the local climatic conditions
and criteria of specificity and sensitivity that do not derive directly from
literature values . The perception of the discomfort due to meteorological
conditions is peculiar to the region and to the local area. For this reason
it was decided to use a relative index, the Heat Stress Index (Kalkstein,
Calculation of meteorological indexes:

Issue of Metorological and - Heat Stress Index (HSI) Statistical estimate of the
Ozone levels forecast - Apparent Temperature (HI) number of health care
within 72 hours - Humidex Index (hum) events in excess (HCE)
- Discomfort Index (DI)
Yes Yes Yes

HSI ≥ 7 or HSI ≥ 9 or HCE ≥ 15
HCE ≥ 3 HCE ≥ 5
No No
No
No Yes
HI ≥ 27 and HCE ≥ 5
No hum ≥ 30 and Yes
DI ≥ 24
No HI ≥ 32 and HI ≥ 32 and
Yes No
hum ≥ 35 and hum ≥ 35 and
DI ≥ 27 DI ≥ 27
Yes
NO ALARM
ATTENTION
ALARM
No
Alarm for 2
days or more
EMERGENCY Yes
Figure 3.1.26 Decision tree of the risk levels.
2003). The Heat Stress Index is a bio-meteorological index that assesses

the physiological response of the population to the meteorological vari-
ables according to the localisation and the seasonal period. The assessment
is carried out through the distribution analysis of the probability of the
meteorological variable measured in the past.
This development resulted in a service capable of providing different
types of forecast information:
• meteorological: type of heat (according to the forecasted tempera-
tures and the expected relative humidity), maximum temperature, daily
average humidity, temperature perceived (maximum and minimum),
maximum daily ozone level, and synthetic index of stress caused by
heat;
NO ALARM
0) No critical meteorological 5) Meteorological conditions
ALARM conditions and no health associated to HSI >= 9
care events in excess and concise bio-meteo
2
indexes in “high caution”
0 class
ATTENTION 1a) 15% < HCE <= 30%, ALARM 6a) 15% < HCE <= 100%,
meteorological conditions meteorological conditions
associated to HSI < 7 and associated to HSI >= 7 and
concise bio-meteorological concise bio-meteorological
1 2
indexes in “caution” class indexes in “high caution”
class
1b) 30% < HCE <= 100%,
meteorological conditions 6b) HCE > 100%,
associated to HSI < 7 and meteorological conditions
concise bio-meteorological associated to HSI >= 7 and
indexes not in “high concise bio-meteo indexes
caution” class in “caution” class
1c) 30% < HCE <= 100%,

meteorological conditions
associated to HSI >= 7 and
concise bio-meteorological
indexes in “wellbeing
class”
2) Meteorological conditions 7) Risk level equal to “Alarm”

ATTENTION associated to HSI >= 7 EMERGENCY for number of health care
and concise bio-meteo events in excess and
indexes in “caution” class persistence of risk level
1 3 for 2 days or more
3) 15% < HCE <= 100%, 8) Risk level equal to “Alarm”

ATTENTION meteorological conditions EMERGENCY for critical meteorological
associated to HSI >= 7 conditions and persistence
and concise bio-meteo of risk level for 2 days or
1 indexes in “caution” class 3 more
4a) HCE > 100%, 9) Risk level equal to “Alarm”

ALARM meteorological conditions EMERGENCY for number of health care
associated to HSI < 7 events in excess and
critical meteorological
4b) HCE > 100%, conditions and persistence
2 3 of risk level for 2 days or
associated to HSI >= 7 and more
indexes in “wellbeing
class”
4c) 30% < HCE <= 100%,

associated to HSI < 7 and
indexes in “high caution”
class
Figure 3.1.27 Legend of the risk levels.

• public health: the number of excess health care interventions;

• level of risk: no alarm, attention, alarm, or emergency.
Schemes for post-elaboration through statistical correlations among
the parameters forecasted by the LAMI limited area model and ground
parameters are used to provide a more accurate forecast of temperature,
humidity, and wind parameters, while predictors and predictants of the
previous 2–3 weeks prior to the forecast were used to take into account
for the extreme atmospheric variability. The apparent or perceived tem-
perature of Steadman (1984) is calculated with the forecasted values: an
index that allows the estimation of physiological discomfort due to expo-
sure to meteorological conditions characterised by high temperatures and
high hygroscopic levels, as well as reduced surface wind speed.
The forecast model of the heat waves used the daily perceived tem-
perature maximums and minimums as input variables. Epidemiological
studies in fact verified that the high temperature and humidity during
the night time do not allow the human body to physiologically recover
from the discomfort accumulated during the day time. Consecutive days
of extreme heat are observed with the maximum perceived temperature
exceeds the average climatological value for the period of 1990–2003 by
a standard deviation with no solution of continuity. Other input data con-
sist of the maximum daily concentration of ozone forecasted by a neural
network statistical model.
The synthetic index for heat stress used is Heat Stress Index (HSI),
a relative bio-meteorological index that is calculated following the pro-
cedure indicated by Kalkstein (2003) and using the data of a measuring
station located in the urban centre of the city of Torino.
The variable derived from these data and used in the HSI elaboration
are: the apparent temperature, the degree of daily cooling, the number of
consecutive days of extreme heat, and the cloud covering. From the anal-
ysis of climatological data measured over the past 14 years and relative
to the decade centred on the considered day, the statistical distribution
of each variable and the corresponding curve of cumulative probability
is determined. For each value assumed by the variable , the correspond-
ing percentile is then calculated. The percentile value of each value is
them summed, giving the SUM dimension. The HSI is nothing but the
percentile value associated with the position of the daily SUM value on
the relative cumulative probability curve. For its forecast, in addition to
the meteorological data previously described, the values of cloud cover
forecasted through the LAMI are used, after being verified subjectively.
The associated epidemiological model is a multivariate model that esti-
mates the number of health care events in excess (the health care events
are intended as the daily number of deaths of people above 64 years old.
The excess being defined as the difference between the number of events
expected and the number estimated from the theoretical model; the daily
events expected – an average of 15 – are calculated according to the histori-
cal series of May–September 1990–2002, with non-parametric regression
methods along the axes of the years, over about 5 days and, successively,
along summer periods of 153 days).
Multivariate regression methods led to the selection of cases observed
in relationship to expectations: HIS of the day, maximum apparent tem-
perature recorded or forecasted during the two previous days, consecutive
days of extreme heat, maximum daily ozone level of the day and the day
before. The multivariate model then suggested parameters to be inserted
into the estimation algorithm for the number of cases in excess, around
which four possible classes were defined: none, low, average, high. It is
important to observe how the model takes into account the input variable
relative to the day before the forecast date: a time interval between severe
meteorological conditions and the consequential excess in the mortality
rate was frequently observed. A complex decision tree synthesises the
expected level of risk (0-1-2-3) by joining the meteorological and health
care forecast information, which may derive from critical meteorologi-
cal conditions, from an excess of health care events, or from both. The
objective of this bulletin is to supply the local health care service with
the information needed to organize medical intervention and prevention
in case of forecasted heat waves.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
*Bluestein H.B. (1992), Synoptic-Dynamic Meteorology in Midlatitudes. Oxford

University Press, Oxford.
Cane D. & Milelli M. (2005a), A new method for T2m forecast in complex
orography areas. COSMO Newsletter, submitted.
Cane D. & Milelli M., (2005b), Use of Multimodel SuperEnsemble Technique for
Mountain-area weather forecast in the Olympic Area of Torino 2006. Croatian
Meteorological Journal 40.
Ebert E.E. & McBride J.L. (1997), Methods for verifying quantitative precipi-
tation forecasts: Application to the BMRC LAPS model 24-hour precipitation
forecasts. BMRC Techniques Development Report n. 2, p. 87.
Ebert E.E. & McBride J.L. (2000), Verification of precipitation in weather
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3.2 Indicators of Rainfall Hazard
3.2.1 INTRODUCTION
The Prime Minister’s Directive dated February 27th, 2004 (G.U. n. 59 of

March 11th, 2004), regarding the organisational and functional manage-
ment of the national and regional warning system for hydrogeological
and hydraulic hazard for civil protection purposes, requires that each
region identify adequate dimensions and relative values as precursors and
indicators of pre-established scenarios occurring on its own territory.
The Regional administration must define a set of thresholds on at
least two levels of criticality – moderate and high – for each type of risk,
as well as an ordinary base level situation in which possible criticalities
are believed to be generally accepted by the population. At each level
of criticality, the Regional administration must establish that the civil
protection system warning levels correspond to specific actions called for
in the Emergency plans to be progressively activated on various territorial
levels (national, regional, provincial, and municipal).
3.2.2 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF RAINFALL THRESHOLDS

AS A WARNING TOOL
Rainfall represents a fundamental indicator of the onset of hydrogeologi-

cal and hydraulic risk. Therefore, the rain thresholds (RT) are an important
component in the warning system; on a Cartesian plane (R vs d), in which
R represents the accumulated precipitation and d represents the progres-
sive duration of the event, the rain thresholds are represented as a curve that
outlines the following possible conditions: above the threshold the precipi-
tation establishes a situation that may be considered potentially critical,
while under the threshold the event lacks the intensity to trigger a warn-
ing. Theoretically, it is possible to identify a family of curves that define
a series of increasingly hazardous states, but in practice, this is limited to
a reduced number of hazard levels with a view to simplifying the organ-
ization of operative Civil Protection plans (Cipolla & Sebastiani, 2000).
There are two critical levels for Piemonte – moderate and high – which
correspond to the two relative rainfall thresholds. Figure 3.2.1 presents
an example of a rainfall threshold with the limits of two critical states.
One approach for determining the RT associated specifically with the
triggering of landslides consists of identifying the relations between the
precipitation-duration variables that divide the field of stability from
the field of instability, beginning with famous events for which the
LOCAL RAINFALL THRESHOLD

250
Rainfall depth P [mm]

200
High criticality
150
Moderate criticality
100
Ordinary base level situation
50
Figure 3.2.1 Local rainfall 0

thresholds associated with 0 6 12 18 24
moderate and high criticality. d [hours]
precipitation and the triggering time are known. Two types of models
are essentially used when defining rainfall thresholds:
a) empirical models based on statistical elaborations. These use statistical
and qualitative evaluations concerning the environmental variables
mentioned above to identify direct relationships between precipitation
and the triggering of landslides;
b) deterministic models based on numerical models capable of supplying
an evaluation of the stability of a slope through the quantitative analysis
of variables like the hydrological balance, the static head and recovery
cycle, and the geotechnical and morphometrical data of the slope.
The empirical approach uses the fundamental parameter of accumu-
lated precipitation (usually expressed in millimetres) over a given time
interval (usually expressed in hours or days). The next step consists of
associating the following type of function
y(t) = f [x(t)] (3.2.1)
that depends on the rainfall before instant t, the probability (P) of trigger-
ing a landslide (E) at instant t. There are many similar examples in the
literature, especially with regards to two families of thresholds:
1) 1st order thresholds are defined by means of envelope or interpolation
of the minimum quantities of rainfall needed to trigger landslides;
2) 2nd order thresholds are similar to the previous ones but different in
that geological, geomorphological, rainfall measurements procedures,
as well as the contribution of past rainfall are also considered.
The deterministic approach attempts to identify the conditions by
which a slope is or is not stable by defining the Safety Factor, which
defines the stability limit given the relationship between the stabilizing
and destabilizing factors. In order to obtain the Safety Factor, complete
models of slopes based on the physical modelling of landslides are used.
These models require a detailed geotechnical and geomechanical charac-
terisation of the slope being modelled. In contrast to empirical models,
Indicators of Rainfall Hazard 303
the use of these models is not considered applicable on regional scales,

but suitable only for well-defined and limited territorial environments (for
example, the site involved in landslides or of individual slopes). In any
case, there are also much more complex numerical approaches based not
on the balance of forces – like in the limit equilibrium method, but rather
where tensions and deformations are considered, allowing researchers to
follow the evolution of a slope, even under post-rupture conditions.
In order to determine the RTs associated with overflow flooding of
waterways, numerical simulations may be used: beginning with a hydro-
logical ground model that simulates the physical processes that determine
the response of the basin being studied, a model is calibrated and validated
according to the hydrometric and rain gauge information available in the
control section and is used to resolve the inverse hydrological problem – or
the evaluation of precipitation capable of generating the critical discharge
(Rosso, 2002).
3.2.3 METHODOLOGY FOR DEFINING RAINFALL

THRESHOLDS
The rainfall thresholds used for the Region of Piemonte warning system
were obtained by using a simpler method than the one described above,
in which the RT is a function of a limited number of parameters:
SP = f (d, TRH , A, I ) (3.2.2)
where d is the duration of the precipitation, TRH is the return period
relative to each level of hazard H, A is the areal extension of the expected
processes, and I is the indicator of the hydrological state.
The model adopted for determining the RT is a conceptual model in
which the return period TR represents the calibration parameter. It must
be obtained in such a way as to minimise the number of false alarms and
missed alarms, taking into account that an increase in the TR with the
corresponding increase in the threshold signifies an increase of missed
alarms with a reduction in the number of false alarms and vice-versa.
These studies have defined missed alarm (MA) as the situation in which,
when damage occurs, the associated precipitation has not surpassed the
rainfall threshold, while false alarm (FA) was defined as the verification
that the threshold had been passed without any effect on the territory.
The optimum return period results as being that for which the objective
function , defined by the following ratio:
= p1 · MA(TR) + p2 · FA(TR) (3.2.3)
assumes the minimum value. The selection of weight p1 and p2 of the

objective function represents a particularly delicate aspect in that they are
related to the evaluation of a somewhat less than technical nature, but

rather a social-economic one. In fact, a missed alarm determines a delay
in the activation of emergency procedures and, therefore, a reduction of
the effectiveness of safeguarding actions for property and, above all, for
public safety (Becchi & Castelli, 1998). On the contrary, a false alarm
causes no direct damage, but rather a social cost related to the activation of
operational levels of civil protection structures and contributes to lowering
the effectiveness of the warning.
With reference to the areal extension A, the thresholds are subdivided
according to spatial distribution:
1) punctual rainfall thresholds (RTp) that refer to a point/station and
as such are representative of phenomena like landslides, torrential
activity, and floods limited to the smaller drainage system;
2) areal rainfall thresholds (RTa) intended as precipitation in relation
to the reference area that represent phenomena like river flooding
involving the basin in question.
The indicator of the hydrological state (I), which is introduced to take
into account the hydrological and hydrogeological processes that depend
on the condition of the system or the degree of saturation of the soils,
refers to the precipitation over the days prior to the event. Two values
of the indicator are considered here: dry conditions or wet conditions.
In order to evaluate the indicator in the case of punctual processes, the
Moser formulation (Honensinn & Moser, 1983), developed for the Aus-
trian Alps and applied by Cancelli & Nova in the Valtellina Alps (1985),
was used and extended to the study area through the application of a
normalization factor:

I = 44.66D(−0.78) N (3.2.4)
where I is the intensity of rains expressed in mm/h, D is the duration

expressed in hours, and N is the factor of normalization equal to the ratio
between average annual rainfall in the area in being studied and that of the
area in which the ratio was obtained. This empirical formulation, which
has a general validity and separates the field of stability from that where
the probability of landslides is high, was used exclusively in this study
to assign the indicator value of the hydrological condition for the RTp.
The accumulated rainfall of the previous days compared with the area
considered and normalised with regards to average annual rainfall was
used as an indicator for the hydrological condition for the RTp.
3.2.3.1 Warning areas

For the purposes of warning activities, each Regional administration,
through its own Centro Funzionale unites the hydrographic basins, or
parts of them, into territorial areas that are significantly homogeneous
with regards to the expected, real-time occurrence of intense meteo-

hydrological events, the typology, and the severity of the relative effects.
Such territorial areas are called Warning Areas.
Hydrographic, meteorological, and orographic criteria play a fun-
damental role in the various refining phases of the process of defining
warning areas and the response of the territory to meteorological effects
and administrative limitations are also taken into account.
The warning areas are identified according to the spatial scales that are
characteristic of meteorological forecasting and take into account rain-
fall and climatic characteristics; these criteria require the introduction
of boundaries that consider the orography, separating mountainous areas
from plains areas, where the orography plays an important role in the
distribution of intense precipitation.
In general, the defining of boundaries takes place by following the
boundaries of the drainage basins: the hydrographic criterion allows the
identification of homogeneous areas from a point of view of the evolution
of flooding processes in that the rainfall within a basin generates effects
on the basin territory itself. In other words, the ground effects of rainfall
on the basin head can also impact plains sectors independently of the
distribution of the rains within the basin itself.
The warning areas are “carved out” along the administrative confines
of the region. The hazard and risk assessment is then carried out on the
associated “reference area”, which may also include territories outside of
the region, making reference to forecasted/observed precipitation on the
entire drainage basin.
Figure 3.2.2 illustrates the Warning Areas adopted by the Region of
Piemonte.
3.2.3.2 Characterisation of intense rains

In order to determine the precipitation of a specific return period, or of the
IDF (Intensity-Duration Frequency curves), the results of the Evaluation
of Floods in Italy Project were used, while the Atlas of Intense Rains over
the Western Alps (Atlante delle Piogge Intense sulle Alpi Occidentali, Boni
et al., 2002b) was used for Piemonte.
The VAPI – Valutazione delle Piene in Italia (Evaluation of Floods
in Italy) procedure was applied by the Research on the Forecasting and
Prevention of Extreme Hydrological Events (Line 1) of the National Group
for Defense from Hydrogeological Catastrophes (Gruppo Nazionale per la
Difesa dalle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche – GNDCI) of the National Research
Council (Boni et al., 2002a).
VAPI reports were developed for all of Italy, even if with unhomo-
geneous application, by the various Operational Units of the GNDCI
and contain a statistical base that allows the identification of return peri-
ods associated with maximum precipitation lasting 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24
hours over the entire national territory. Two distributions were used for the
Figure 3.2.2 Subdivision of

the territory of the Region of
Piemonte into warning areas.
drafting of the VAPI Report: the Two Components Extreme Value (TCEV)
e la GEV (Valori Estremi Generalizzata) – or Generalised Extreme Values,
which was used only for the departments of Parma and Genoa.
The Atlas of Intense Rains over the Western Alps was produced by the
Interuniversity Environmental Monitoring Research Centre of the Uni-
versity of Genoa as part of the Progetto Interreg II Italia-Confederazione
Elvetica. The rain gauge data at the base of this task are relative to a
total of 537 stations, including all those in Piemonte as well as those in
the Ticino Canton and the French stations north of the Pelvoux Massif;
these stations cover an extensive area with a density of approximately
one station every 100 km2 . Following a careful post-analysis, researchers
discarded the series in which the only outlier produced by an event was
already described by data from another series in a nearby station, thereby
attaining a base of 365 rain gauge stations.
The approach used was that of the regional analysis as had already been
proposed in the VAPI Report, as it was believed to be more suitable in
establishing a reliable estimate of the quantiles of the maximums of precip-
itation for high return periods. The TCEV distribution (Rossi et al., 1982)
was used and its peculiarity is that of translating the different origins of
hydrological extremes into statistical terms, formally leading to the prod-
uct of two Gumbel-type probability functions: the first is denominated
base component and assumes frequent values rather than very high ones,
while the second generates rarer events that are more significant on an
average (extraordinary component). The TCEV depends on 4 parameters
(1 , 2 , 1 , 2 ) which, when combined suitably, provide the asymmetry
and variation coefficients (CS and CV respectively). The presence of four
parameters give the probabilistic model increased flexibility, however it
must be taken into account that it is more difficult to estimate parame-
ters and that there are notable variations in this estimation with regards
to the dimension of the historic series available. These parameters were
calculated for each homogeneous region and for every duration from 1–24
hours.
With a qualitative analysis of the spatial distribution of the parameters
that define the form of the TCEV on the territory, homogeneous regions
were identified (the Po River region, the Tyrrhenian region, and southern
Alps) within which the distribution of original probability can be assumed
in its dimensionless form.
The IDF expression used is:
h(d, TR) = mk(d, TR)d n (3.2.5)
where h (d, TR) is the depth of maximum annual precipitation per duration
of return period TR, m is the value of the rainfall index to be deduced in
function of the geographic location of the site, and k (d,TR) is the dimen-
sionless quantile that can be obtained by referring directly to the expression
that provides the accumulated probability in function of the TCEV dis-
tribution parameters. Finally, n is the exponent of the scale relation
which is also a function of the geographic localization of the site. Fig-
ure 3.2.3 represents the trends of the rainfall index over the entire Italian
territory.
For the calculation of the areal rainfall depth, it must be taken into con-
sideration that the increase in the surface leads to noticeable characteristics
of the spatial evolution scale of the rainfall, which must be considered a
factor of areal significance that transforms the punctual estimate into an
areal one. The method proposed by Eagleson of the U.S. National Weather
Service was used to extend the analysis of the precipitation measured from
the station point to the rest of the area. This method has the comparison
coefficient r, also known as the areal reduction factor (ARF), expressed
in the following form (Eagleson, 1972):
r = 1 − e(−1.1d ) + e(−1.1d )
1/4 1/4−0.01A
(3.2.6)
where d is the duration expressed in hours and A is the area expressed

in km2 .
Figure 3.2.4 demonstrates, for the various durations examined, the
trend of the comparison coefficient with the area from which it is observed
that, for areas larger than 500 km2 , r is more or less constant with
Figure 3.2.3 Trend of rainfall

index m.
COMPARISON COEFFICIENT
1.0
24 h
0.9
ARF
0.8
Figure 3.2.4 Trend of the 0.7

ARF Reduction Factor in 1h
function of the area for the 0.6
durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
24 hours. km2
regard to the area. Specific studies conducted on rainfall fields in Emilia

Romagna (Brath, 2004) have allowed the development of an expression
of the ARF factor specifically for the Reno River basin outlet at Casalec-
chio (1,051 km2 ). In Figure 3.2.5 there is a comparison of the ARFs
proposed by Eagleson and Brath: the former demonstrates considerable
limitations for the spatial scales of the study. In order to call attention to
Brath vs Eagleson
1.0
24 h
0.9
6h
0.8
ARF
24 h
0.7
Brath
Figure 3.2.5 Comparison 0.6 Eagleson 6h
between the ARF Reduction
Factor of Eagleson and the 0.5
one proposed by Brath for the 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Reno basin. km2
this fact, specific studies for the characterisation of the fields of space-time
precipitation in the Italian context are recommended.
By introducing the formula of comparison, the expression for calculat-
ing the depth of maximum areal precipitation as specified for the duration
of 1 to 24 hours becomes:
haT (d) = m(d)KT (d)r(d) (3.2.7)
while for the RTp, the duration of rainfall representative of phenomena

considered range from 1–24 hours. For the RTa, durations even a few days
long are taken into consideration, according to the dimension of the area
considered. For this study, the durations studied ranged from 6 to 48 hours.
The extension of the durations longer than 24 hours was calculated by
extrapolating the values for the known durations through a power law in
the following form:
haT (d) = ad n (3.2.8)
3.2.3.3 Historic events and characteristic precipitations

As has already been extensively described, the return period represents the
calibration parameter of the conceptual model in such a way as to minimize
the number of missed alarms and false alarms. The objective function
(3.2.3) can be reconstructed through retrospective historical studies of the
events and historical damage. The typologies of data researched and then
elaborated are:
• rainfall data on an hourly scale;
• slope processes;
• processes on waterways.
One database on the effects for hydrogeological risk available on a
national scale is the Aree Vulnerate Italiane da Frane ed Inondazioni
(AVI) Project (Italian Areas Vulnerable to Landslides and Flooding) of the
GNDCI that, in spite of its numerous limitations due to the inconsistency

of the information, remains the most important archive on flooding and
landslides in Italy and can be used in regions where a smaller, organic,
and computerized data base is not available.
All the information recorded was collected in a continually updated
digital archive that, as of 2001, counts more than 22,000 data relative to
landslides in 18,500 localities and more than 7,500 data relative to flooding
in 12,000 localities. The census files of the AVI project are also available
on line at (http://avi.gndci.pg.cnr.it/) with various types of information
(administrative and general on the event, cartographic data, trigger-
ing events, morphological, geological, and geotechnical information on
damage).
There are also data bases on a regional level like the one managed by
Arpa Piemonte. This collection of georeferenced and organic information
inherent to slope processes (landslides), as well as torrential and fluvial
processes (floods) that involve and have involved the Piedmontese terri-
tory, are organised in the GIS. Within the GIS, the processes and effects
subsystem consists of instruments for the management of the informa-
tion inherent to the slope, fluvial, and torrential processes that involve, or
have involved, the Piedmontese territory in typological terms of induced
effects and damage. The data are collected from various sources (publica-
tions, technical reports, newspaper articles) and from surveys and direct
observation of the processes of natural instability.
Even though information concerning damage from as far back as the
early 20th century is available, the difficulty in obtaining rainfall data on
an hourly scale for historic events and the notable changes in the vulner-
ability of the territory that has taken place over recent decades and led
to a concentration of attention on the period following 1990. The natural
processes have been classified in two sets according to the typology: punc-
tual (landslides, torrential activity, secondary drainage systems) and areal
(floods); in function of the amount of pertinent damage, on two levels of
criticality defined in the warning system.
Those relative to modest damage to works, infrastructures, and agri-
cultural areas were considered to be of moderate criticality, while cases
of consistent or widespread damage, or the destruction of building, roads,
hydraulic works, bridges, and infrastructures, or even cases of loss of
human life due to the magnitude of the event were considered as being of
high criticality.
The selection of the significant events was followed by the pluvio-
metric characterisation of the same. Each element of damage has been
matched with one or more pluviometric recordings with the objective of
identifying the characteristic return periods of the precipitation that caused
each one. From the set of all the reports available for the period analysed,
only phenomena directly traceable to precipitation were considered.
Concerning punctual damage, the selection of the rain gauge station
that was representative for the phenomenon was based on the distance, on
the planimetric height, and on the absence of separating orographic reliefs.

The cases in which it was not possible to obtain rain data for a signifi-
cant part of the area involved were discarded from successive analyses.
For flooding, all the rain gauge stations present in positions useful for
determining the discharge volume to the catchment basin were used.
3.2.4 APPLICATIONS TO SOME ITALIAN REGIONS
The methodology described was applied to hydrogeological instabilities

in Piemonte, in Emilia Romagna, and in Calabria. Each case with the
results obtained is described below.
3.2.4.1 Region of Piemonte

The analysis for Piemonte was carried out by using the information
obtained in the GIS from 1990 until 2002 and the rain gauge data of
the regional meteo-hydrographic network. The damage and reference rain
gauges for each event were plotted on maps: Figure 3.2.6 is an example
of the maps produced.
Figure 3.2.6 Flood of

October 13th–16th, 2000 in
the province of Verbano
Cusio Ossola.
In order to identify the objective function (3.2.3) of all the events, the
missed and false alarms for different return periods were counted. In order
to evaluate false alarms for the RTp, the excesses recorded from all the
rain gauge stations grouped by warning area were counted in relation to
rainfall with return periods of 2, 5, 10, and 20 and for durations of 1, 3,
6, 12. and 24 hours. Regarding the RTa, rains compared to the drainage
basins of the same period were calculated and the excesses with regard to
the rains with TR equal to 2, 5, 10, 20 years were counted for durations of
6, 12, and 24 hours. The excesses obtained in this way were then grouped
by warning area and by event, while those for which no damage was
reported were considered false alarms.
The choice of weights p1 and p2 of the objective function, as mentioned,
is related to the social-economic evaluation; in any case, it is logical to
hypothesize p1 > p2 in that a missed alarm certainly leads to more serious
repercussions than a false alarm. Therefore, the trend of the objective
function for different values of the p2 /p1 ratio was calculated. Table 3.2.1
indicates the values of the objective function associated with moderate
damage and punctual extension. Table 3.2.2 indicates the values of the
objective function associated with high damage and punctual extension.
Table 3.2.3 indicates the values of the objective function associated with
areal damage and moderate degree. Table 3.2.4 indicates the values of the
objective function associated with high damage and areal extension.
3.2.4.2 Region of Emilia Romagna

For Emilia Romagna, the only archive available was the AVI project, from
which information on about 450 landslides and 40 floods that occurred
TABLE 3.2.1 VALUES OF THE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION

ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DAMAGE
AND PUNCTUAL EXTENSION
TR Annual Annual p2/p1
[years] mean FA mean MA 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
2 63 1.8 27 20 14 8
5 44 5.9 23 19 14 10
10 37 6.7 22 18 14 10
20 33 7.8 21 17 14 11

ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DAMAGE
5 44 5.9 23 19 14 10
10 37 6.7 22 18 14 10
20 33 7.8 21 17 14 11

ASSOCIATED WITH AREAL DAMAGE
AND MODERATE DEGREE
2 27.5 0.5 12 20 14 8
5 14.0 2.4 8 19 14 10
10 9.0 2.9 7 18 14 10
20 6.0 3.8 6 17 14 11

5 14 1.6 6 5 3 2
10 9 2.2 5 4 3 3
20 6 3.6 5 4 3 3
between 1990 and 2000 were extracted. A critical analyses of the contents
of each file resulted in the discarding of all those that did not present details
or complete information on the triggering causes, the type of movement,
the soil involved, the typology and degree of damage, or referred to the
reactivation of old landslides or rockslides, and seismic phenomena. This
led to the definitive use of 60% of the files that were originally selected.
Then the rain gauge data of approximately 150 rain gauge stations of the
ex-Hydrographic Offices of the Parma and Bologna Divisions, which is
now Arpa Emilia Romagna, were obtained. The data referred to the period
between 1990 and 2000, but was not complete for all the stations.
One or more rain gauge recordings were matched to each element
of damage reported for a total of 98 rain gauges, of which 80% were
significant for moderate criticality levels and 20% were significant for
high criticality levels. These were then used to calculate the rainfall depth
for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours recorded during the days of the
event, and the daily accumulation for the days prior to the beginning of
the same and calculated the return period of the associated precipitations.
The false and missed alarms were then calculated, beginning with the
exceeding of local thresholds for about 150 rain gauge stations located
on the Emilian territory. Reference is made only to local thresholds. The
results obtained can be found in Tables 3.2.5 and 3.2.6.
3.2.4.3 Region of Calabria

The data relative to hydrogeological instability in Calabria were also
obtained from the AVI Project. About 450 files on damage with punc-
tual extension that occurred between 1990 and 2000 were selected. The

ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DAMAGE
2 48.6 1.8 21 16 11 7
5 22.1 4.6 13 11 9 7
10 11.7 5.4 10 9 8 7
20 7.2 6.0 9 8 7 7

5 22.1 1 10 8 5 3
10 11.7 1.3 6 5 4 2
20 7.2 1.4 4 4 3 2
validation then led to the discarding of those that did not present details
or were not exhaustive regarding triggering mechanisms or referred to
causes not directly correlated to precipitation, therefore counting 300 AVI
files, of which 80% represented damage of moderate criticality and 20%
for high criticality. Each instability was matched with one or more rain
gauge stations. The data regarding durations from 1 to 24 hours and for
the daily accumulation of the days prior to the beginning of the meteoro-
logical event were acquired for each station. This data was provided by
Arpa Calabria, which is responsible for managing the rain gauge stations
of the ex-Hydrographic Office of Catanzaro.
It is possible to estimate the return period of precipitations with dura-
tions from 1 to 24 hours for 82 rain gauges, of which 64 are associated
with moderately critical damage and 18 with highly critical instability. The
unavailability of continuous series of precipitation limited the application
of the methodology to damage that occurred in Calabria, in that it was not
possible to calculate the false alarms. The results of the missed alarms can
be found in Table 3.2.7.
3.2.5 CONCLUSIONS
The results obtained for the events associated with a moderate criticality
scenario for hydrogeological and hydraulic risk indicate that the average
annual number of false alarms is particularly high for return periods of 2
years, while if it the average increases, the missed alarms are no longer
negligible (especially for TR > 5 years). If the p2 /p1 ratio is equal to 0.1,
the function is minimal for return periods equal to 2 years, while it is
TABLE 3.2.7 ANNUAL MEAN OF MISSED

ALARMS ASSOCIATED WITH
PUNCTUAL EXTENSION DAMAGE
TR Moderate High
[years] criticality criticality
2 1.0 –
5 2.5 0.8
10 3.5 0.9
20 3.7 1.1
50 –
considered prudent to assume a TR of 5 years for higher values of the

ratio. For events associated with high criticality scenarios, the function
assumes a minimum for return periods equal to 5 years only if p2 /p1 = 0.1,
while in all other cases, the minimum corresponds to a return period equal
to 20 years. The results obtained from a complete analysis of the events in
Piemonte and a partial analysis for Emilia Romagna and Calabria, suggest
the adoption of return periods indicated in the contingency matrix found
in Table 3.2.8.
TABLE 3.2.8 RETURN PERIOD ASSOCIATED TO RAINFALL THRESHOLDS

VALIDITY OF ASSESSMENT RETURN PERIOD OF THRESHOLDS TRH [YEARS]
Threshold Territorial Duration Moderate criticality High criticality
environment [hours] dry moist dry moist
soil soil soil soil
Local Maximum 6, 12, 24 5 2 20 5
Regional Medium
The study also highlights how the hypothesis of a causal relationship

between meteoric forces and ground effects does not allow an explanation
of all the cases examined. In fact, the observation of false and missed
alarms in correspondence to the same threshold indicates the limits of
the proposed approach. Nevertheless, this methodology represents a valid
speditive instrument, as demonstrated by the results of its application in
the Region of Piemonte ever since 1996.
The work described is the result of an activity carried out by Arpa
Piemonte on behalf of the National Department of Civil Protection as the
CentralAuthority responsible for the national and regional warning system
for hydrogeological and hydraulic risk for purposes of civil protection,
with the aim of developing instruments for the evaluation of criticality that
assure uniformity on a national level. The generalization and territorial
environments different from those analysed will have to be followed by an
in-depth punctual study and verified with the support of more detailed data
bases that were not available at the time the study was being carried out.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Arpa Piemonte – Area Previsione e Monitoraggio Ambientale (2004), Soglie

pluviometriche, Convenzione tra il Dipartimento per la Protezione Civile e
Arpa Piemonte per l’assistenza alla gestione delle situazioni di rischio idro-
meteorologico sul territorio nazionale, Report for internal use, Torino, 2004
(in Italian).
Becchi I. & Castelli F. (1998), Sulla gestione economicamente ottimale di misure
anti-alluvioni integrate di tipo strutturale e non. XXVI Convegno Di Idraulica
e Costruzioni Idrauliche, Catania (in Italian).
Boni G., Messori C., Morando M. & Siccardi F. (2002a), L’uso del VAPI
in meteoidrologia. XXVIII Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche,
Potenza (in Italian).
Boni G., Parodi A., Roth G. & Tognetti F. (2002b), Sintesi pluviometrica regionale
e realizzazione di un atlante delle piogge intense sulle Alpi occidentali Italo-
Svizzere, Progetto Interreg II Italia-Svizzera 1994–99 Connection of the survey
networks and sharing of experiences and knowledge for the management of
hydrogeological risk, Torino (in Italian).
Brath A. (2004), Sistema regionale di monitoraggio, valutazione speditiva del
rischio idraulico e allertamento ai fini di protezione civile– Seconda Fase: per-
fezionamento del sistema. Rapporto inedito della Regione Emilia Romagna,
aprile 2004 (in Italian).
Cancelli A. & Nova R. (1985), Landslides in Soil Debris Cover Triggered by Rain-
storms in Valtellina (Central Alps- Italy). Proc. IV Int. Conf. and Field Conf.
on landslides. Tokyo, pp. 262–272.
Cipolla F. & Sebastiani C. (2000), Linee guida per la redazione di un piano di
Protezione Civile dal rischio idrogeologico. Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa
dalle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche (in Italian).
Direttiva del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri del 27 febbraio 2004, Indirizzi
operativi per la gestione organizzativa e funzionale del sistema di allertamento
nazionale e regionale per il rischio idrogeologico e idraulico ai fini di protezione
civile. Gazzetta Ufficiale n. 59 del 11 marzo 2004 – Supplemento Ordinario n.
39 Roma (in Italian).
*De Michele C. & Rosso R. (1999), La valutazione delle piene nell’Italia Nord-
Occidentale: bacino padano e Liguria tirrenica. CNR-GNDCI (in Italian).
Eagleson P.S. (1972), Dynamics of flood frequency. Water Resour. Res. 8,
pp. 878–898.
Honensinn F. & Moser M. (1983), Geotechnical Aspects of soil slips in Alpine
Regione. Eng.Geol., vol. 19, pp. 185–211.
*Kottegoda N.T. & Rosso R. (1997), Statistics, Probability and Reliability for Civil
and Environmental Engineers. McGraw-Hill Publishing Company, New York.
Rosso R. (2002), Manuale di Protezione Idraulica del Territorio. Cusl, Milano (in
Italian).
Rossi F. & Versace P. (1982), Criteri e metodi per l’analisi statistica delle piene.
Valutazione delle piene. CNR. PF conservazione del suolo n. 165 (in Italian).
3.3 Towards a Different Approach to
Forecasting Methods
The forecasting of a natural event requires the application of a criterion

of behaviour, the knowledge of variables and parameters, and the control
of boundary conditions. The system of reference is that of complex inter-
actions between the ground and water, through which the phenomena in
question can be traced to meteoric precipitations, to the infiltration and
circulation of ground water, to evapotranspiration, to the surface runoff,
and the concentration of flows. The more or less rapid evolution of these
phenomena is frequently at the base of critical events.
If, on one hand, it is extremely complex to mathematically interpret
the phenomena correctly, on the other hand, it is often possible to trace
the main cause of geological and hydrological hazard to a single natural
agent: rain.
In fact, the simplest approach consists in the correlation of the effects
that the event itself causes to a single factor that is thought to be inherently
linked to the natural event. Generally, the rainfall measured by a rain gauge
network is attributed with the task of synthesizing the causes of a complex
phenomena like a landslide or river flooding.
This approach allows the direct connection between the measuring of
precipitation and the possibility of verifying a natural hazard by prepar-
ing a rainfall threshold system that functions with a view to warning the
prevention structure.
In the specific case of Arpa Piemonte, the regional territory was sub-
divided into homogeneous rain gauge areas (warning areas) for which
distinct thresholds have been identified and where hydrogeological slope
instability or drainage network instability may occur.
The selection of the warning areas and relative boundaries reflects the
need to conveniently distribute the identified precursor, which is to say
the weather forecast, spatially.
Therefore, the cause-effect approach is a useful and efficient tool
because it is not necessary to know all the laws that govern a specific
phenomenon. Instead, a direct law between the occurrence of an event
and an action that “summarises” the causes is hypothesized.
The need for the passage from one simplified approach, like that of
thresholds, to a more complex and sophisticated one lies in the knowledge
of the limits inherent to the method. This is a “black box” approach, where
the laws that govern the phenomenon are intentionally ignored and, above
all, it is a well-known fact that many situations elude these threshold
forecasts. In fact, some times there can be different responses in a zone
when set thresholds are met, even under otherwise equal conditions.
This is due to the fact that there is a clear non-linearity of response

between the event and the threshold, and unexpected situations may occur,
perhaps having also been influenced by additional factors that may have
amplified the effects, causing them to act in different ways within the
various territorial contexts.
This would indicate the need to understand the phenomenon to be
forecasted and to find some criteria capable of representing behaviour.
Two different methodological approaches can be identified, both of which
are finalised at increasing the forecasting capacity:
1) beginning with the criterion of the existing thresholds and specifying
them by typology of instability and territorial/geological, geomorpho-
logical context. In this way, the approach changes from a “black box”
to a “grey box”, because the cause-effect approach is “tainted”, having
taken into consideration the environment and the type of instability one
wishes to forecast;
2) constructing models of the phenomenon/process. These can be
mechanical, statistical, or empirical, but in any case, an attempt is
made to analyse the problem from the inside, seeking to highlight the
characteristics that govern the phenomenon and, according to these
characteristics, define a forecasting system.
With regards to the latter method, historically the initial approach was
to interpret the mechanism that seems to regulate the development of the
events from a strictly physical point of view.
In addition to the difficulties related to the resolution of complex
mathematical systems, the main obstacles consist of assigning values to
the parameters involved (which are often evaluated according to labo-
ratory scale samples and cannot be interpreted on a real scale due to
the intrinsic heterogeneity of the system), the insignificance of the local
measurements, and the perturbations that are often introduced during the
sampling phases.
Instead, the statistical approach is based on an analogous knowledge of
intellectual incapacity in completely understanding “the nature of things”
and evaluates hazard and risk conditions by associating them with a pre-
sumed error. Even in this case, it is necessary to have a long, historical
series of events available in order to evaluate expected behaviours.
This qualitative leap does not mean abandoning a method of analysis
that in any case has proven itself to be satisfactory, but flanks it, consti-
tuting a more detailed comprehension of those types of phenomena and
for those zones that demonstrate criticality conditions.
In fact, the use of more sophisticated models certainly improves the
possibility of forecasting some phenomena, but also implies costs (com-
putational, temporal, and economic) that are sometimes impossible to
sustain indiscriminately over the entire regional territory. For this reason,
the efforts being made by Arpa Piemonte have established the objective
of increasing knowledge of some phenomena in order to forecast them
Towards a Different Approach to Forecasting Methods 319
and to have access to more sophisticated instruments for those zones that
effectively have a higher probability of reaching critical conditions.
With regards to the general threshold method, it is therefore possible
to spatially improve the forecast and target it for some types of instability.
Whatever the approach used, it is important to remember that the key
to forecasting future effects is the reconstruction of the past, by follow-
ing interactive and repetitive cycles in which the observational criterion
supports each forecasting method.
To this view, it must be also observed that, when the causes are typically
natural, the events must be interpreted as evolutionary processes of the
landscape that have always occurred and will continue to occur. They
are, therefore, inherently inevitable because they tend to lead the territory
towards a geomorphological balance.
The experiences being conducted by Arpa Piemonte in the overcoming
of the cause-effect concept in the prevention of natural risks are discussed
more thoroughly below.
What results from these experimentations is the awareness that the
application of more targeted and specialised approaches to different
typologies of instability will eventually lead to obtaining indicators of
criticality that are as reliable and precise as possible.
3.4 Forecasting Floods
3.4.1 FLOOD FORMATION PROCESSES
The subject of technical hydrology is represented by the drainage basin,

a system consisting of that portion of territory where the ground and
the substratum convey the inflow of water in a given outlet section nor-
mally identified as a cross section of a river. The formation processes for
water discharges of rivers can be classified from a theoretical point of
view as hydrological and hydraulic. The former include all the transform-
ation mechanisms of the catchment basin inflow into discharge to the
drainage channels, while the latter is the transfer of this discharge within
the individual beds and the overall drainage network.
The hydrologic mechanisms regard several processes of interaction
between the ground, the substratum, vegetation, and the atmosphere.
These define the mass flow of water, illustrated in Figure 3.4.1, and
of energy from the atmosphere towards the drainage basin and vice-versa,
as well as amongst the different components of the basin itself.
RAINFALL ATMOSPHERIC EVAPORATION

atmospheric water
SURFACE DETENTION
TRASPIRATION
surface water
GLACIERS AND SNOWFIELDS
SURFACE RUNOFF RIVERS, LAKES AND OCEANS

gound water
INFILTRATION HYPODERMIC RUNOFF
WATER RECHARGE GROUND RUNOFF
Figure 3.4.1 Diagram of the hydrological cycle.

With regards to mass flow, the influx to the system from outside are
made up mainly of liquid meteoric precipitation, which must be added
to the contribution of liquid mass from the snow-glacial melting; in
particular contexts, direct condensation of water vapour like dew or hoar-
frost must be taken into account. This water influx is later redistributed
among other different flows within the basin itself, undergoing numerous
transformations.
A part of the influx not intercepted by the ground covering vegetation,
infiltrates into the substratum while a part flows along the surface until it
reaches a river. Once again, a part of the flow infiltrated into the first layer
of the ground reaches the river, filtering in the saturated and/or unsaturated
ground as runoff, the other part percolates in the underlying aquifer, or
groundwater, that in turn interacts with the drainage channel in the valley
bottom and the plain, producing discharge in the river, called base flow,
or draining discharge from a body of water.
Not all the mass that reaches the basin is transformed into discharge.
A part of the influx returns to the atmosphere before reaching the chan-
nels due to evaporation from the ground, by means of transpiration from
the vegetation, or evaporation directly from the surface of water bod-
ies. The evapo-transpiration processes depend strongly on the dynamics
of the incoming energy flow: among these, short-wave solar radiation
incident on the ground represents the main input to the hydrological sys-
tem, to which long-wave energy from and towards the atmosphere must
be added. Furthermore, the evapo-transpiration is influenced by the avail-
ability of water in the ground and also by the conditions of the atmospheric
layers in proximity to the ground: air humidity and ventilation constitute
important predisposing or inhibiting factors, All this makes the interaction
between the ground and the atmosphere extremely complex (Penman,
1948; Priestley & Taylor, 1972).
The various components briefly described up to this point have dif-
ferent weights in function of the specific hydrologic regimen at hand.
In flood hydrology, only the rapid dynamic phenomena are significant
on the temporal scale of the flood event itself (hours or days): The ris-
ing limb and the peak are due essentially to runoff while the subsurface
flow mainly influences the falling limb of the hydrograph but may thus
influence dynamics of the floods that immediately follow.
The influence of runoff increases with the reduction in the basin dimen-
sions, becoming crucial in the sudden flooding of small basins, generally
known as flash floods; vice-versa, the subsurface flow conditions the flood
dynamics increasingly with the increase of the dimensions of the basin.
In the analysis of low water levels, which define the discharge duration
curve, determining the water resources that are effectively available in a
given basin, reference is made to the formation of the base flow, which in
turn derives from the interaction with groundwater systems: these inter-
actions have very slow dynamics (months or years) and depend strongly
on evapotranspiration flows.
Forecasting Floods 323
When studying flood phenomena, much attention must therefore be

paid to the correct identification of rapid dynamics processes that deter-
mine the formation of surface flows and runoff. Between these, infiltration
and seepage are the most important aspects to be represented through
suitable modelling.
A physical description of the process is theoretically possible, referring
to studies on water flow in porous materials, even if this calls for the
characterisation of the hydraulic properties of the material, in this case the
ground, evaluating above all the permeability and the retention capacity.
These capacities are generally not constant, but depend on the state of
the water content of the ground itself, making the phenomenon very non-
linear (Richards, 1931; Brooks & Corey, 1964, 1966; Van Genucten,
1980). Therefore, this phenomenon is particularly complex to describe
and must be simplified at least on a ground particle scale when analysing
the integrated process.
Moreover, these hydraulic characteristics are difficult to measure in
either a laboratory or on site, and above all, they present a high spatial
variability, whether planimetric or vertical (Santini et al., 1995), resulting
in further approximations when the process must be studied on a catchment
basin scale, which instead represents the scale in question for flooding.
Usually two complementary approaches are adopted, both of which are
the basis of different descriptive models of the infiltration process. In one
case, the ground mechanisms for repelling precipitation are linked to the
excessive intensity of the precipitation itself, which exceed the capacity
of the ground to absorb (Horton, 1933). The main characteristics of the
ground that determine this mechanism are summarised in the permeability
curve that describe how the permeability of the soil varies in function of its
degree of saturation; this is closely linked to the type of soil, in particular
to the texture, the use of the soil itself, which is to say the presence of
organic material or root systems.
In the other case, the runoff generation mechanisms of the soil are
linked to the state of progressive saturation of the ground that little by little
prevents further absorption (Dunne, 1978). In this case the predominant
characteristics of the ground are summed up by the structure and the
porosity that quantify the water volume that the soil itself can hold. In
any case, it is evident that in order to correctly describe the infiltration
process, it is necessary to define the ground characteristics and their spatial
variability correctly, and at the same time the spatial variability of the
precipitation that triggers the process.
The former approach is highly suitable for describing floods that
originate from brief and intense rainfall, while the second is more suitable
for the effects of prolonged rainfall. Obviously, there is no shortage of
models that develop both approaches in order to manage both types of
events.
In particular, the territory of Piemonte is characterised by a high vari-
ability from a point of view of the physical territory and from a climatic
one, which imposes the analysis of formation processes on different tem-

poral scales. The Alpine chain, with its high peaks and deep valleys,
is characterised by small catchments with snow-glacial and snow-rain
driven hydrologic regimes, but susceptible to flash floods due to summer
thunderstorms that often cause consistent solid transport.
In the pre-Alpine zone, where the Alpine valleys converge with major
valley bottoms and the catchments are larger with decidedly pluvial
regimes, the typical spring and autumn flooding is often caused by pro-
longed precipitation. However, convective phenomena and high-intensity
precipitation are often caused by the orographic rise of humid Mediter-
ranean currents: given the strong anthropic presence, they can often be
extremely risky. The formation of the flood wave in these catchments gains
fundamental importance in causing flooding in the main drainage chan-
nel. In this case, in addition to the simulation of the infiltration process,
it is essential to correctly quantify the altitude beyond which the precipi-
tation becomes snow, and therefore does not produce immediate runoff.
Lastly, the hills and the plains are characterised by a higher concentration
of precipitation during the autumn, when floods are often linked to ground
saturation.
On the contrary, the hydraulic processes mainly regard the run out of
the discharge into the river and the determination of hydraulic heads and
flow velocity. The transfer times of the flood waves in different branches
constitute a fundamental variable in that, in addition to determining the
arrival time of the peak discharge, they influence the offsetting of tributary
waves and, consequently, the form of the wave and the peak value of the
receiving watercourses. In particular, with flood routing in the natural
channel pattern, it is necessary to take into account two phenomena that
contribute significantly to the modification of the translation of the flood
wave on the channel pattern scale: the reduction of the wave and the
influence of the backwater profile.
The term attenuation is intended as the phenomena of progressive
reduction of the flood peak during its translation along the river. This phe-
nomenon is due to the dynamics of the progressive influx of water volumes
into the bed and is correctly described in hydrodynamic equations. This
phenomenon is much more evident when the river beds become wider and
less inclined, and it is therefore very important in all portions of the plains
of regional rivers (an example is provided in Figure 3.4.2).
The backwater phenomenon occurs due to the increase in the head
caused by the particularly high water levels downstream, and is described
implicitly by motion equations. These increases are generally caused by
the convergence of another flooded river or by the increase in the levels
caused by a narrowing of the bed due to either natural or anthropic causes.
In the presence of backwater, the hydrometric level does not reflect the
relative trend of the discharge, resulting in the permanence of a high
level even when the bed discharges diminish (an example is provided in
Figure 3.4.3).
Tanaro River
1400
Alba
1200 Asti
800 Masio
m3/s
Montecastello
600
400
200
0
13/11/00 12:00 14/11/00 0:00 14/11/00 12:00 15/11/00 0:00 15/11/00 12:00 16/11/00 0:00
Figure 3.4.2 Example of the reduction of the flood wave along the Tanaro River.
Bormida River at Alessandria

1400 89
portata 88
1200 livello
87
800
86
m asl
m3/s
600
85
400
84
200 83
0 82
23/11 24/11 25/11 26/11
Tanaro River at Montecastello

1400 89
Figure 3.4.3 Backwater at portata 88
1200 livello
the levels of the Bormida 87
Torrent in Alessandria were 800
caused by the flooding of the 86
m asl
m3/s
600
Tanaro River. The water level 85
of the Bormida remained 400
84
high, conditioned by the level
200 83
of the Tanaro, while the
discharges diminished 0 82
rapidly. 23/11 24/11 25/11 26/11
This phenomenon is especially significant in the plains where, under

specific topographic conditions, the backwater can be perceived for many
kilometres upstream. In particular, in the Piedmontese drainage network,
the backwaters are important in correspondence to all the Po tributaries:
for example, those of the Dora Baltea, the Sesia, the Tanaro, and the
Scrivia Rivers; the confluence of the Stura di Demonte, of the Belbo,
and of the Bormida into theTanaro; the confluence of the Orba into the
Bormida, and of the Toce in the Verbano Lake.
Furthermore, the effect of the backwater may occasionally and locally

be very important near structures like bridges, whose bearing distances
are subjected to strong variations caused by occlusions due to solid trans-
port. These occlusions may provoke intense and sudden flooding. Such
phenomena are often linked to the hydrology of the slopes and represent
another close link between hydrological and hydraulic phenomena. In this
case, the difficulty in correctly forecasting floods is linked to the extreme
difficulty of forecasting when the causes of the backwater will occur.
In conclusion, it is important to emphasise that numerous other phe-
nomena may interact with the natural flood routing and produce extensive
inundations, like the rupture of embankments or the occlusion of the bed
due to landslides or mudslides. Even in this case, the difficulty of fore-
casting is linked to the impossibility of forecasting the causes. For this
reason, these phenomena must be considered offline when defining risk
scenarios.
3.4.2 FORECASTING MODELS
There are multiple factors that determine the choice of mathematical

models to be used in constructing a flood forecasting system. There-
fore, the choice of the type of model to be used is not univocal and must
be evaluated through a multi-objective analysis that takes into account
the requirements and the potentials of each individual model in terms of
necessary data and the precision of the results.
In particular, it is essential that the territory to be modelled from a
geo-morpho-climatic point of view be analysed, and the prevalent physical
processes that condition the flood dynamics of the sections of the river in
question and the relative space-time scale of reference be defined.
Moreover, it is necessary to evaluate which answers the simulation sys-
tem is capable of providing and the relative calculation times, in function
of the operational requirements of the prevention measures to be under-
taken after the warning phase, in order to mitigate the exposure and the
vulnerability of the territory.
3.4.2.1 Hydrological models of surface runoff formation

In general, hydrological phenomena are of fundamental importance in
the study of flooding in small mountainous, very rapid dynamic drainage
basins (small scale: surface area less than 100 km2 and response times less
then 3–6 hours; mid-scale: surface area less than 1,000 km2 and response
times less than 18–24 hours). In this type of study, it is necessary to accur-
ately consider, with particular attention paid to the significant space-time
variability, all the processes that contribute to the transformation of the
rain discharge into runoff in the drainage network (Siccardi, 1995; Barbero
et al., 2002).
The literature presents countless models that can be used for the
simulation of surface infiltration, deep seepage, slope runoff, and rapid
subsurface flow. In general, even before analysing the equations consider-
ing of each individual model and the numerical methods used to resolve
them (an often complex undertaking and irrelevant to the objectives of
this chapter), it is advisable to classify the models according to some of
the categories typically used in hydrology.
According to the equations solved in the calculation code, physical
models based on the accurate description of diverse processes on an
adequate space and time scale can be identified; conceptual models, based
on approximations of the dynamics of phenomena through similarities
with simpler systems; empirical models, based on the use of equations
obtained from the direct interpretation of experimental evidence. In this
case, physical models are more complex, while conceptual and empirical
models are somewhat less complex. The degree of complexity is linked
to the numerical solution of the equation: the choice of a simpler equa-
tion generally leads to increased parameterization and therefore a need for
calibration.
There are also concentrated models where the processes are resolved
on a much larger integral scale with the entire catchment used as a base
unit, or distributed models, where the base units are parcels of land of
the desired dimensions. In this case, the greater complexity of models
distributed is linked to the fact that the finer the spatial resolution of the
model allows in itself a greater accuracy in the physical description of the
phenomena and generally implies a high computational cost.
Finally, continuous simulation models for the description of the hydro-
logical cycle are considered. These models simulate the overall dynamics
of the different processes, reproducing the entire hydrological cycle for
extensive periods and representing all the components, from superficial
ones to those of groundwater, and then directly determine the hydrological
state of the catchment instant by instant. These complex models are backed
by various simplifications linked to the study of floods, also called “event-
based”, limiting the description to the aspects of the hydrological cycle
that have greater influence on flood formation. Some models study the
surface runoff and rapid subsurface flow and neglect the dynamics of
the seepage and oscillations of the groundwater, while others simulate
only the surface flow and consider the precipitation that infiltrate into the
ground as a loss. This schematization generally results in a simpler model
that, however, does have the disadvantage of requiring knowledge or a
hypothesis concerning the initial state of soil saturation, which strongly
conditions the infiltration process (Figure 3.4.4).
In general, continuous simulation models imply greater complexity
in that they require the simulation of the entire hydrological cycle over
the long term; however, the choice of an event model can be linked not
so much to the need for simplification, but the need to accurately study
the principal processes that cause floods, isolating them from the overall
Bogna at Ponte Caddo

200
180 saturated soil
160 moist soil
dry soil
Portata [m3/s]
140
measured
120 discharge
100
80
60
40
20
Figure 3.4.4 Influence of the 0
initial conditions on the flood 16/11 17/11 18/11
forecast for a small basin. Forecast time: 00:00 UTC 17-11-2000
hydrological context by exploiting their different time scales. In this case,

the simplification introduced often results as being totally negligible.
The compared analysis of the advantages and disadvantages offered
by each type are extensively documented in the literature (Chow et al.,
1988).
3.4.2.2 Hydrodynamic models of flood routing

Hydraulic phenomena are decisive in the study of the drainage network
of the valley bottom and the plains, characterised by large catchment
basins and longer response times (large scale: surface areas greater than
1,000 km2 and response time greater than 1 day) (Barbero et al., 2002). In
this case the literature proposes a limited number of possible approaches.
This is substantially due to the fact that the physical phenomenon of fluid
motion is described in a highly accurate manner by Stokes equations. With
a view to river flooding in particular, these equations are simplified in the
De Saint-Venant equations, considering that the motion of the natural
currents is absolutely turbulent and making use of the one-dimensional or
two-dimensional hypothesis of motion. The characteristic that most clearly
distinguishes this type of model is the numerical solution method of the
base equations, which determines its computational cost, the stability, and
the accuracy.
The hydraulic models have performances that are highly conditioned
by the quality of the topographic surveys available. Generally regarding
one-dimensional models, the geometric description of the river cross-
sections can be easily obtained from specific topographic surveys, while
the roughness parameter must be calibrated according to the simulation
of historic events.
3.4.2.3 The hydro-meteorological forecasting chain

The set of data relative to the meteorological forces observed and fore-
casted, together with the various treatments required by hydrological
and hydraulic models, constitute the so-called hydro-meteorological

forecasting chain.
The real-time hydrometric data are a starting point for the forecasting
of flood routing in major rivers (large scale basins and limb length meas-
ured in hundreds of kilometres) based on hydraulic models. In this case,
the translation times of the flood waves in the river channels are high
enough to allow an adequately anticipated forecast. These applications
have been consolidated in scientific and technical literature by numerous
operative examples. The precise knowledge of the geometry of the river
beds generally allows very precise forecasts.
Real-time meteorological observations allow forecasts to be carried
out on the drainage channel of the mid-scale basins through hydrological
and hydraulic models; in this case, the use of short and mid-term meteoro-
logical forecasts allows an increased anticipation of an albeit less accurate
system forecast, due to the uncertainty of the meteorological forecasts. The
interaction between hydrology and meteorology in forecasting extreme
events is actually a field of applied research that has been gaining increased
coverage in the scientific community in recent years. There are not many
examples of application in either in the literature or in operational reality
(WMO, 2002).
Finally, the information from meteorological radar and short-term
meteorological forecasts are particularly important in that the character-
istic formation times for floods in small, mountain basins do not allow
the population sufficient advanced warning; in this case, the uncertainties
linked to the meteorological forecast are summed with those of the high-
resolution hydrological modelling. The results must therefore be carefully
analysed. These applications represent a highly advanced field of applied
research for which most examples available are still in the prototype stage.
In any case, the crucial point in the management of an operational
forecasting chain to be taken into account is that forecasts provided by
model simulations of river flooding are not exact, but rather prone to
notable uncertainties. These are essentially due to: the use of meteoro-
logical forecasts, the estimate of initial ground saturation conditions, and
the approximations implicit in hydrological and hydraulic models. Such
uncertainties inevitably produce defects like missed and false alarms in the
forecasting system. Therefore, a correct management of warnings must be
directly and objectively quantified from the simulation model, or rather
the flood forecasting system, through an expert analysis of the forecast.
Deterministic forecasts
A forecast is deterministic when the numerical model does not take directly
into account the uncertainty of the estimates produced. Rather, it treats
the variables that describe the evolution of the system in a deterministic
way. This means that once the initial conditions and forces have been
fed into the system, the solution provided from the model is unique and
determinate. Therefore, the propagation of the uncertainties present to the

discharge values in the channel pattern in the three components cited –
forces, initial conditions, and boundary conditions – is not quantified.
When the uncertainties present are acceptable, as in the case of
short-term hydraulic forecasting, the deterministic simulation needs no
interpretation. On the contrary, when the weight of uncertainty increases,
as in the mid- to long-term hydrological forecast, only an analysis of the
behaviour and the precision of the model being used on past events allows
an expert to interpret the numerical simulations in light of the ongoing
situation and to issue qualitative forecasts concerning the magnitude of
flood phenomena.
Probabilistic forecasts
In order to exceed the limits of a qualitative and subjective forecast, the
objective and quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of the forecast is
indispensable. This is obtained by using models capable of managing
random variables and providing solutions for equations in probabilistic
terms, which is to say by specifying the probability that a certain variable,
for example the discharge of a specific cross-section, is higher than a fixed
value of risk.
From an applicative point of view, the complexity of a model capable
of characterising the entire probability distribution of the solution often
prevents approaching the study in this way. In general, models that are
limited to determining the second order moment, or variance, of this
distribution are used. This represents a reliability index of the solution
and provides a confidence interval within which the forecasts may vary.
However, even in this case, the role of the expert forecaster cannot be
neglected in that the interpretation of the solution with a view to warnings
requires careful analysis.
Alternatively, an operative methodology, which is simple to apply but
effective in obtaining a reliable estimate of the forecast, is based on the
hypothesis that the main source of uncertainty is linked to the meteoro-
logical forecast. This methodology calls for the use of multiple runs of
the hydrological-hydraulic model with different rainfall-meteorological
scenarios for the subsequent verification of the variation in forecasted
discharges. In this way the forecaster has an indirect estimate of the
uncertainty and can better weigh his qualitative forecast.
3.4.2.4 The operational model in Piemonte

The currently operative Flood Forecast Information System (Sistema
Informativo di Previsione delle Piene or SIPP) was developed, verified,
and validated during the Interreg IIC and IIIB Projects to meet the needs
of the Centro Funzionale warning activities. The objective of the SIPP is
to provide discharges and the relative levels along all the major drainage
channels of Piemonte in real time for the purpose of assessing risk.
The heart of the flood forecasting and management system consists of
software called FLOOD WATCH, which manages the information flow,
organises and controls the input data for forecasting models, and prepares
the publication of the results of model simulations. FLOOD WATCH
is constructed in ESRI© ArcView environment. The forecasting of river
discharges (not only floods, in that the system also refers to ordinary regi-
mens) is carried out through the application of a series of numerical models
that, according to the input data obtained from observations of the hydro-
meteorological network, is capable of simulating the inflow-outflow
transformation process and reconstructing the dynamics of river beds.
The simulation models used to build SIPP are deterministic and based
on physical models. The model system consists of three modules of the
MIKE11© simulation code of the Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI, 2001–
2004):
• the Rainfall-Runoff (RR) hydrological module, which simulates the
inflow-outflow on catchment sub-basins;
• The Hydrodynamics (HD) module that simulates the flow of water in
the river beds and flooded areas (DHI, 2001);
• The Data Assimilation (DA) correction module that allows the estima-
tion of errors made by the model and the correction of their forecasts
through the acquisition of hydrometric data.
In particular, RR is a concentrated, conceptual hydrological reser-
voir model. The water flow on each individual sub-basin is simulated by
means of the filling and emptying process of four reservoirs in series,
representing:
• the formation and fusion processes of snow, in function of the altitude
and temperature;
• the temporary influx of a portion of the rainwater on the surface of the
catchment;
• the saturation of the superficial layer of land, based on the formation
of the superficial outflow (coefficient of variable flow of time);
• the collection and release of water that seeps into the groundwater
system.
The parameters that regulate the mathematical models of the phys-
ical processes described by RR are partially deduced from measures and
data concerning the intrinsic characteristics of the basin and partially
calibrated.
The snow formation and fusion module takes into account the distribu-
tion of the basin in altimetric layers, offering an adequate correction of the
temperature with the altitude. Excess rain that the ground is not capable
of absorbing runs off the surface of the basin, following the inclination
of the slope, and converges towards the outlet section. The surface runoff
process is represented by two cascade storages (Nash nonlinear system),
in function of the geometric characteristics of the land. In addition to the

surface runoff, the portion of the rapid subsurface flow is also calculated.
The water that penetrates the ground is collected and released over time
by the underground water system: base runoff sustains the flood recession
phase and guarantees river discharge in times of average and low water
levels. Figure 3.4.5 illustrates the conceptualization of the hydrologic
cycle adopted in the RR module.
Each hydrologic sub-basin, into which the territory has been subdi-
vided, is connected to the drainage network in one of two ways: head basins
are those that direct a concentrated flow to the point furthest upstream of
QOF
SNOW OVERLAND
SOIL MOISTURE FLOW
PROFILE CK1 OF
SNOW RAIN Ep
STORAGE p CK2
IF
PN Ps
Umax SURFACE STORAGE U QIF
INTERFLOW
Ea
DL
ROOT L
ZONE Lmax LOWER ZONE
STORAGE L
Lmax
G CAFLUX
Sy GWPUMP
BFu
GWL
GWL
CKBF BF
GROUNDWATER BASEFLOW
STORAGE
GWLBF0
DEPTH
Figure 3.4.5 Conceptualization of the hydrological cycle adopted in the RR module.

a branch of the drainage network or in a punctual junction, while lateral

basins distribute their flow along a specific segment of a river.
Along the drainage network, the motion of the water and the pro-
cesses of composition and translation of the flood waves are simulated
by the HD module, which implements the well-known equations of De
Saint-Venant for non-stationary flow in open water systems. The stretches
of the drainage network being simulated are represented by means of
cross-sections. Some cross-sections are derived from direct, recent, or
historic topographic and bathymetric reliefs, while others along segments
of the smaller network, were deduced from the cartography. In addition to
the geometry of the rivers in the model, the geometric characteristics of
the flood plain areas that contribute to the reduction of the flood discharges
are implemented. The HD model receives, composes, and translates the
flow contributions that derive from the hydrological sub-basins, calculat-
ing and forecasting flood wave progress downstream in terms of variation
over time and within the space of the water level and discharge.
With regards to the operative application, as input to the model,
the SIPP has data automatically available in real time from the
Figure 3.4.6 Model structure.

Note the subdivision of the
basin into unitary sub-basins
and the simulated drainage
channel.
hydro-meteorological network, including data on Piemonte integrated

with the Aosta Valley network, Liguria, and the Swiss Canton of Ticino.
The total network consists of approximately 350 rain-temperature meas-
urement stations (average density of one station every 100 km2 ) and about
one-hundred hydrometric stations. The data observed are then supple-
mented by quantitative rain forecasts elaborated by Centro Funzionale
meteorologists.
In order to manage the spatial variability of the atmospheric forces
and the response of the drainage basins, a tree system was constructed,
subdividing the entire drainage basin into a series of 267 independent
sub-basins that constitute the base unit for modelling.
From a hydraulic point of view, the network covered by the simulation
consists of about 80 rivers and three large pre-Alpine lakes for a total
length of approximately 3,500 km. The control points, made up of the
regional hydrometric monitoring network, consist of about one-hundred
stations distributed throughout the network.
The meteorological forecasts used are provided by the regional
meteorological service and consist of average area precipitation values
for the warning areas with windows of 6 hours, for a forecasting horizon
of 48 hours. Table 3.4.1 illustrates the sections for which the performance
of the model was analysed.
The system performance is constantly assessed and, in the case of
significant floods, the assessments are archived and later serve as a starting
point for further developments of the system itself.
Performance is analysed off line, with the intention of evaluating both
the behaviour of the hydrological model itself, and the weight of the errors
present in the meteorological forecast on the SIPP forecasts. To complete
these analyses, the observations of the meteorological stations and the
meteorological forecasts provided by different models, for example the
model of the European meteorological centre (ECMWF), the local area
model for Italy (LAMI), and a high-resolution, experimental version of
LAMI (s4) are used. The case study of the November 2002 flood represents
a useful reference by which the performance of the forecasting chain was
verified. As demonstrated in Figure 3.4.7, in order to synthesize the simu-
lation of the forced hydrological model with different quantitative rainfall
forecasts, a relative error (3.4.1) was defined together with an index of
normalized anticipation that takes into account the forecast anticipation,
the interval between the forecast instant (TOF), the peak instant T (Qmax),
and the concentration time of each basin (TC ) (3.4.2)
Qforecast − Qobserved
error = (3.4.1)
max(Qobserved )
T (Qmax) − TOF
i_a = (3.4.2)
TC
TABLE 3.4.1 RIVER SECTIONS USED TO EVALUATE THE MODEL
RIVER RIVER SECTION CATCHMENT AREA CONCENTRATION TIME

[km2] [h]
Cardè 510 7.7

Carignano 3’976 18.0
Torino 5’362 23.8
Po
Crescentino 13’230 27.0
Isola Sant’Antonio 25’857 44.4
Becca 36’770 51.9
Chisone San Martino 581 6.0
Banna Santona 361 18.3
Dora Riparia Susa 827 6.3
Stura di Lanzo Lanzo 580 5.5
Orco Cuorgnè 630 5.8
Dora Baltea Tavagnasco 3’313 11.6
Borgosesia 696 7.0
Sesia
Palestro 2’587 18.8
Scrivia Serravalle 619 10.0
Piantorre 499 9.0
Farigliano 1’508 14.8
Tanaro Alba 3’379 17.8
Masio 4’534 25.3
Montecastello 7’994 36.4
Stura di Demonte Fossano 1’249 9.5
Belbo Castelnuovo 422 15.1
Mombaldone 392 12.2
Bormida
Cassine 1’521 23.2
Orba Casalcermelli 798 14.2
Toce Candoglia 1’475 9.0
Diveria Crevoladossola 321 3.8
Figure 3.4.8 illustrates the results of the simulation in consideration

of the error, as defined above, relating to the normalised index. As can be
seen, the underestimation of the forecasted discharge is not strictly linked
to the forecast anticipation due to the importance of the meteorological
forecasting errors.
Table 3.4.2 illustrates the results of the simulations in terms of average
error and standard deviation. The discharge forecasting error is almost
always negative, and therefore indicates the tendency to underestimate;
the forecast obtained with the observed rainfall data (perfect forecast)
demonstrates the average minimum error in both cases. The one obtained
with the rainfall forecast from the global model (ECMWF) shows the
Tanaro River at Alba, 25/11/02 00.00

900
forecast anticipation Error
800
700
Q (m3/s) 600
500
Observed
400 Modelled
Figure 3.4.7 Comparison 300

between the forecast and 25/11/2002 0.00 25/11/2002 12.00 26/11/2002 0.00 26/11/2002 12.00 27/11/2002 0.00
observation of the Tanaro Forecast
+0 h +24 h +48 h time
River in Alba.
OPERATIVO EC MWF
index of anticipation
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
error [%] error [%]
LAMI s4
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
error [%] error [%]
Figure 3.4.8 Normalised forecasting errors in relation to the anticipation index.
biggest error, thereby confirming how difficult it is to apply them to the

scale of the basins being studied.
From an operational point of view, it must be understood to what
degree the error in the discharge forecast influences the warning system
and, as logically follows, the proper management of the emergency in
terms of false or missed alarms. In fact, a discharge is forecasted for each
section and then compared with the threshold values, thereby defining the
expected level of risk. The Threat Score and BIAS (Murphy & Winkler,
TABLE 3.4.2 SUMMARY OF DISCHARGE FORECAST ERRORS
METEOROLOGICAL 14–16/11/2002 EVENT 23–25/11/2002 EVENT

MODEL Mean Standard Mean Standard
Error Deviation Error Deviation
perfect forecast -0.01 1.10 0.04 0.46
operational -0.14 1.03 -0.03 0.57
ECMWF -0.31 1.15 -0.28 0.41
LAMI -0.27 1.12 -0.18 0.62
s4 -0.29 1.26 -0.16 0.44
TABLE 3.4.3 PERFORMANCE OF WARNING SYSTEM

METEOROLOGICAL 14–16/11/2002 EVENT 23–25/11/2002 EVENT
MODEL
TS BIAS TS BIAS
perfect forecast 0.15 0.15 0.33 0.33
operational 0.46 0.46 0.00 0.00
ECMWF 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
LAMI 0.13 0.50 0.13 0.50
s4 0.08 0.08 0.25 0.25
1997) statistical index were calculated according to the missed and false
alarms generated by the hydro-meteorological chain during the simula-
tions of the two events considered as case studies. Table 3.4.3 reports the
results of these calculations.
The results highlight how difficult it is to make a reliable forecast for
basins with a middle-small extension like those stricken by the events
in question: it can also be noted how the best forecasts, in case of the
operative model, are those for events with a longer duration. This is due
to the fact that when meteorologists’ carry out elaborations to estimate
expected rains during an event, the results are supported by observed data.
The analysis of the two case studies confirms, on one hand, that the
use of quantitative precipitation forecasts by global models as forcing
for the forecasting of discharges in small and mid-size basins produces
significant errors, while on the other hand, the hydrological model itself
present uncertainties for these basins, due to the simplification of physical
processes and to the initial conditions.
Obviously, the uncertainties also cause the reduced reliability of the
warning system in terms of flood forecasting. However, at least for these
case studies, the issuing of missed and false alarms was not strictly related
to the entity of the forecasting error. Future efforts will be aimed at
developing and improving numerical models as well as a probabilistic
discharge forecasting method.
3.4.3 METEOROLOGICAL RADAR IN FORECASTING FLASH

FLOODS IN SMALL CATCHMENT BASINS
3.4.3.1 Observation and nowcasting meteorological radar

Meteorological radar is an instrument for observing clouds and precipi-
tation. The electromagnetic wave emitted by the radar in the form of
impulses is backscattered by the clouds that constitute the meteorological
target. The measurement of the power and the phase (Doppler radar) of
the signal received allows the nature of the meteorological target to be
characterised. In particular, the measurement of power, which is quantified
in the logarithmic unit of reflectivity (dBZ), is linked to the quantity of
water in the cloud, while the measurement of the phase facilitates obtaining
information related to the velocity at which the cloud is moving.
Due to the fact that radar does not give a direct measurement of the
meteorological parameter, suitable algorithms must be applied in order to
obtain information that is more useful for hydro-meteorological purposes.
For this reason, reference is made, for example, to radar estimates of
precipitation.
The electromagnetic field generated by radar is normally polarised on
a horizontal plane. Over recent years, systems that allow the variation of
the plane of polarisation of the wave transmitted (polarimetric radar) have
been developed and are now commercially available. In particular, the
alternated transmission of impulses polarised horizontally and vertically
allows more detailed information to be collected, making it possible to
distinguish accurately between meteorological and non-meteorological
echoes. Furthermore, the identification of the type of precipitation is
possible by recognising the form of the hydrometeor. In fact, water drops,
characterised by a flattened form due to falling motion, backscatter the
radar radiation more on a horizontal plane, while snow and hail usually
have a more spherical form and backscatter the radiation in a similar way
in both polarisations.
Arpa Piemonte manages the radar at Bric della Croce and, in collabor-
ation with the Region of Liguria, the radar of Monte Settepani (Bechini &
Cremonini, 2002). Both systems are Doppler and polarimetric and send
their data to the Centro Funzionale in real time. The Bric della Croce radar
is located at the top of the hills of Torino in the Town of Pecetto (TO),
while the Monte Settepani radar is installed at an altitude of 1,400 m in
Osiglia (SV).
The real-time elaboration of radar measurements allows the estimation
of some significant meteorological parameters over the entire regional ter-
ritory and the realisation of specific products for monitoring and forecast-
ing activities. The most common meteorological radar applications are:
• real time monitoring of the intensity of precipitation, wind speed, the
occurrence of hail within a radius of 120–150 km from the radar site
and with a definition of approximately 1 km2 ;
• flood forecasts; the joint use of radar and the ground monitoring net-
work allows the initialization of hydrological models through an optimal
estimation of the quantity of precipitation within the regional territory.
• very short-term forecasting (3–6 hours) of thunderstorms associated
with intense precipitation, hail, etc.
Radar furnishes a continual and frequent measurement of the territory.
It is the instrument that is best suited to the elaboration of short term
forecasting, especially with regards to convective phenomena.
The term nowcasting is used precisely to emphasise the brief time
interval covered by the forecast – from 0 to 6 hours. Historically, now-
casting activities were based mostly on extrapolation techniques applied
to radar and satellite images. These techniques, which have been used
since the 1970’s, call for the calculation of the cross-correlation between
successive images in order to identify the trajectory of the radar echo: they
can be applied on an areal level (Kessler, 1966) and on a single cell level
(Barclay & Wilk, 1970), in which case the centroid of the echo is used as
a reference.
More recently, sophisticated algorithms have been developed that
allow researchers to manage the union and division of thunderstorm cells
(Dixon & Wiener, 1993).
An alternative approach is the use of numerical modelling data, as in
the case of the Met Office NIMROD algorithm (Golding, 1998), together
with conventional extrapolation techniques. For short term forecasts, the
extrapolation part is given more weight, while for longer times, the
dependence on the model acquires more importance. For periods longer
than 6 hours, the method is almost completely dependent on the model.
3.4.3.2 High-resolution hydrological models

For the management of hydrogeological risk, radar estimates of precipi-
tation are used as forcing in a distributed hydrological model. As already
mentioned, in a drainage basin, the transformation of the inflows (meteoric
precipitation) into run off (discharge at the outlet section) is regulated by
a set of complex physical phenomena. Their complete mathematical mod-
elling would require the use of a great number of differential equations and
the exact knowledge of all the dimensions involved. Distributed hydrolog-
ical modelling (Abbot et al., 1987; Beven, 1985; Rosso, 1994) overcomes
these difficulties by reproducing the effective dynamics of the various
hydrological processes, describing them on the scale of the various ele-
mentary components in which it is discretized. The high spatial resolution
derives from the dimensions of the elementary cell into which the sur-
face of the basin is sub-divided. These cells can be 1,000 m, 100 m, or
even 10 m for smaller basins: the resolution is not limited by the struc-
ture of the model, but rather by the scarcity of territorial information, and
is imposed by the limits of the elaboration capacity of electronic calcula-
tors. High spatial resolution implicitly allows a better temporal description
of the dynamics of the phenomena, which in turn offers the possibil-

ity of accurately describing the different processes and their space-time
variations.
Within each cell, the hydrological and hydraulic topographic properties
are hypothesized as being continual and homogeneous in order to allow the
parameterization of the equations of individual physical processes for the
cell in question and to later evaluate the overall effects in terms of discharge
to the drainage channel sections. Usually, when practicing applications, a
raster type of decomposition of the basins is used, obtained by subdividing
the area of interest into elementary, rectangular-shaped cells. This leads
to the analysis of the integral process by introducing the hypothesis and
simplification to a more or less forced level.
The distributed approach also has the enormous advantage of allowing
the contemporary study of the entire basin and is partial components in
that the model provides information on the evolution of the phenomena
in every point of the domain.
It seems evident that the use of a distributed type of model requires
the acquisition of a large quantity of data: the total number of parameters
involved is in fact given by the number of dimensions used to describe
the individual elementary cell, multiplied by the total number of cells
present. Even the computational weight of the model is therefore costly:
the function of all the cells present must be simulated for each step of the
calculation. In contrast, such costs are compensated by a more accurate
description of the phenomena, especially since it has been pointed out
(Beven, 1985; Rosso, 1994) how the spatial variation of the process in
question (absorption, routing, etc.) has a strong influence on the basin
response.
Furthermore, the calibration phase is more easily controllable, given
that the parameters have a very precise physical significance: they there-
fore oscillate within an interval with a known value. Moreover, it must be
emphasised that only a small portion of them will effectively be param-
eters that require calibration; most of them are data that can be measured
directly on site (altitudes, slopes, etc.).
3.4.3.3 Operational usage and accuracy of the results

The flash flood forecasting system, based on the distributed hydrological
model and the estimate of the forcings by meteorological radar, is cur-
rently operative on the regional territory only in some sample basins and
should serve as performance analysis of this instrument. The objective is
to understand the advantages that a short-term forecast may offer in order
to improve emergency management.
The model used for the estimate of the flooding formation and the
routing of the flood wave in the drainage channel is the FEST (Mancini
et al., 2000; Ravazzani et al., 2002), developed by the Technical Univer-
sity of Milano. It consists of a series of modules that simulate the various
components of the hydrological cycle. Its prerogative is that of working

on a GIS base according to a distributed scheme that allows researchers
to consider the space-time variations of hydrological processes like evap-
oration, precipitation, infiltration, and snow melting and run off along the
surface and underground drainage network. The model resolves the equa-
tion system of the mass balance and the energy balance and allows working
continually and per event, using specific modules for each hydrological
process examined in such a way as to select the ones that best interpret the
different natural conditions to be represented. For this particular applica-
tion, a reduced event version, in which only the processes that lead to the
formation of surface flow are simulated, is used. This version is highly
representative of flood formation in small basins where the base flow is
generally negligible for the purpose of forecasting flood waves.
The architecture of the model consists of two main blocks as in Fig-
ure 3.4.9. In the first block, the pluviometric information is elaborated
and the ground response in terms of infiltration and surface run off for
each cell is elaborated. The infiltration model implemented is the SCS-
CN conceptual one, which is frequently used in hydrological applications
(USDA, 1972, 1986). The rainfall estimation, supplied by the punctual
scale of the radar estimates for the basin, is used as distributed precipi-
tation on single calculation cells. In the second block, the equations that
describe the routing of the surface flow on the slopes, in the existing
drainage channels and eventually through the natural and artificial reten-
tion structures. The simulation of the flow routing along the slopes is based
on the conceptual model of linear retention, while that for the bed flow is
based on the Muskingum-Cunge variable speed model (Ponce, 1989). The
analysis of the digital terrestrial model allows the automatic generation of
Figure 3.4.9 Scheme of the processes described in the specific application of the FEST model.
Figure 3.4.10 Chorography

of the basins used with the
sections considered
highlighted.
the drainage channel according to the identification of the flow directions

for each cell by calculating the direction of maximum slope and the defin-
ition of the slopes and the bed system (Carrara, 1988; Tarboton, 1997).
This latter distinction is obtained by establishing a minimal draining area
whose basin surface is divided into cells that are considered as belonging
to the bed drainage system.
An example of the application of the coupled radar-hydrological model
system is represented by the case study of the September 2002 event in
the Chisola Torrent Basin, where extensive flooding in the Town of Nole
occurred due to the intense precipitation of convective origins. This event
was observed optimally by the Bric della Croce radar, which is only 30 km
far from the shower centre. For the analysis, the basins adjacent to the
Chisola Torrent and the Sangone Torrent, for which there are two hydro-
metric stations respectively at Trana and at La Loggia, were considered.
The efficiency of the system was evaluated according to the comparison
between the results obtained from the same hydrological model – first by
using the precipitation fields estimated by radar and then a second time
by using the fields reconstructed from the rain gauge records.
The first control regards the flood volume calculated in two simula-
tions, summarised in Table 3.4.4. The coherency between the observed
and the simulated volumes derived from the radar confirm the proper func-
tioning of the hydrological model and affirm that the estimates produced
by radar are coherent with ground observations.
The second control regards the direct comparison between the dis-
charge hydrographs estimated from hydrometric observations and those
simulated by the hydrological model. In this case, the capacity of the
TABLE 3.4.4 COMPARISON BETWEEN OBSERVED AND SIMULATED FLOOD VOLUMES

BASIN FLOOD VOLUME [Mm 3]
OBSERVED SIMULATION WITH SIMULATION WITH
RADAR DATA RAINGAUGE
Chisola Torrent at La Loggia 21.05 25.11 (+19% error)
Sangone Torrente at Trana 2.33 2.34 (+2% error)
hydrological model to represent the different processes that contribute to

the formation of the flood wave are evaluated.
The analysis of the results of the Trana section (Figure 3.4.11-A)
demonstrates the appropriate behaviour of both the simulations regarding
the first flood peak, while the simulation with the radar data demonstrates
a slight overestimation for the second peak. The results pertaining to the
La Loggia section (Figure 3.4.11-B) indicate how neither case had a good
wave reproduction, which resulted in the wave having a longer duration
and a less accentuated peak. This is due to the fact that the overflowing
in None, which is upstream from La Loggia, produced a reduction in
the wave that cannot be described by the model. The observations in
this section were therefore not very representative for the purposes of
evaluating the model’s performance. A further verification of the quality
Sangone River at Trana

70
A Observed
60 Modelled rain gauge
Modelled radar
Discharge [m3/s]
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Time [hours]
Chisola River at La Loggia

350
B
300
Observed
Discharge [m3/s]
250 Modelled rain gauge

Modelled radar
200
150
100
Figure 3.4.11 Hydrographs 50
observed and simulated for
the Sangone Torrent in Trana 0
(A) and for the Chisola 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Torrent in La Loggia (B). Time [hours]

Chisola River at None

250
Modelled rain gauge

200 Modelled radar
Discharge [m3/s]
150
100
50
0
Figure 3.4.12 Hydrographs
observed and simulated for 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
the Chisola Torrent in None. Time [hours]
of the results, made possible thanks to the potential of the distributed

model, can be conducted regarding the section just upstream of None. In
this case, direct observations are not available, but the drainage capacity
of the bed in that section is known to be approximately 150 m3 /s.
As can be noted in Figure 3.4.12, the simulation obtained according
to the radar data greatly exceeds this limit value and correctly leads to
the forecasting of overflow flooding in that stretch of the waterway, a
conclusion that is not reached with the simulation based on traditional
rain gauge data. This highlights the importance of high resolution space-
time data in the analysis of convective phenomena and their effect on small
and mid-size basins.
This example demonstrates how the weather radar can lead to a net
improvement in the forecasting capacity of the hydrological model. How-
ever, an operative use of this instrument is still not reliable enough,
due to the abovementioned numerous sources of error that influence the
precipitation estimate.
Operative instruments that allow the joint use of the radar estimate
and the rain gauge observations on the earth are being developed for
the construction of precipitation fields through correction and filtering
algorithms (Cremonini et al., 2004); this should result in a sound and
reliable product useful for operative hydrological forecasting.
3.4.4 FLOOD MANAGEMENT
For a correct management of flooding, it is necessary to plan an adequate

intervention plan and establish a forecasting service that gives advanced
warning of a flood occurring.
The assessment of flood fields and related risk are generally carried
out for a limited number of scenarios, while the emergency plans for every
scenario define the intervention procedures to be adopted (warning level).
Flood forecasting is carried out by defining a limited number of classes
of evaluation (criticality level).
The correlation of these two levels allows the civil protection system
to anticipate those actions that will prepare them to deal with the emer-
gency situation. This means that emergency plans must be developed in
accordance with the warning system being used.
Subsequently, the Arpa Piemonte advanced warning service on a
national level and the possible uses of the cartography pertaining to the
flood fields are presented. This may serve as a moment of transition
between the assessment and forecasting phases.
3.4.4.1 Advanced warning

Recent directives require that Regional administrations provide for the
activities necessary to prevent and reduce hydraulic risk, if necessary,
with the collaboration of the Civil Protection Department, and provide
adequate flood management, including the following activities:
• advanced warning and surveillance through the Centri Funzionali
network;
• territorial hydraulic organisation through adequate structures and/or
subjects;
• regulation of flows.
Flood management for events that involve basins pertaining to more
than one region, which due to their nature and extension require the
coordinated intervention of more than one competent administration, must
stipulate agreements for the sharing of information and data, forecasting,
and surveillance in real time of the Centri Funzionali involved.
In this framework, the service supplied by the Centri Funzionali net-
work in real time supports management and is articulated in three main
phases. The first is forecasting, sustained by an adequate numerical model
and consisting of the assessment of expected meteorological phenom-
ena, the assessment of expected criticality, as well as the potential impact
on life, property, settlements, and the environment. The second phase is
monitoring and surveillance, including the instrumental monitoring of the
ongoing event and direct qualitative and quantitative observations, as well
as the surveillance of the unforeseen situations and short term forecasts
of the relative impact through nowcasting, as facilitated by models ini-
tialised with measurements collected in real time. Finally, the third phase
concerns the assessment of the hydraulic criticality of the major rivers.
The Centro Funzionale of Piemonte, using the hydrological and
hydraulic models available and, in particular, the flood forecasting infor-
mation system described above, evaluates the hydraulic risk through
a continuative service and, in case of hydrogeological and hydraulic
Figure 3.4.13 Flood forecast

bulletin.
criticality warnings, issues a specific flood forecast bulletin that contains

a localised estimate of the level forecasted for major rivers. The critical-
ity levels in this case are divided into three classes: ordinary situation,
ordinary flooding (level 2), and extraordinary flooding (level 3).
The discharge forecasts are currently operative regarding the 24
significant sections. Figure 3.4.13 illustrates an example of the flood
forecast bulletin.
The forecast bulletin complements the hydrogeological and hydraulic
bulletin and allows the specification of if and where danger caused by
adverse meteorological conditions may involve the main drainage chan-
nels. During major floods, additional information and updates may be
supplied together with short to mid-term forecasts.
Finally, for the management of events that involve more than one
region, and in particular may involve the entire length of the Po River,
a series of initiatives that guarantee the sharing of information and fore-
casts throughout the basin have been undertaken. The March 13th, 2002
agreement between the Regions of the Po River Basin defines a subset of
the regional hydro-meteo-pluviometric networks as a trustee network on
the basin scale and constitutes an Inter-regional Po River Committee to
coordinate and supervise the correct and efficient exchange of monitoring
data between the Regional and National bodies.
The February 16th, 2005 convention between the Centri Funzionali of
the Regions of the Aosta Valley, Piemonte, Lombardia, Emilia Romagna,
Veneto, the National Department of Civil Protection, the Po River Basin
Authority, and the Inter-regional Agency for the Po River calls for the
realisation of a hydraulic modelling system for the forecasting and control
of river flooding along the main length of the Po River and the institu-
tion of an Operational Centre to elaborate their own evaluations through
the input of flood forecasts provided by each individual Regional Centro
Funzionale.
In this way, through the synergy of the various structures and especially
by exploiting the forecasting systems already in use, it will be possible to
supply adequate support to the Flood Service along the entire embankment
length of the Po River in a relatively short time.
3.4.4.2 Hydraulic risk assessment for emergency plans

The Regional regulation for the programming and planning of civil pro-
tection activities, approved by a Decree of the President of the Regional
Administration n. 7/R of October 18th, 2004, calls for the set up of provin-
cial emergency plans and municipal or intermunicipal civil protection
plans. A fundamental task of the institutions with regards to civil protec-
tion is the safeguarding of human lives, property, and the environment in
a broader sense of the word, with regards to the occurrence of a potential
disastrous event.
A more profound knowledge of territorial elements, of its evolution-
ary tendencies, as well as the criticality conditions is of great strategic
importance in defining instruments for civil protection programming and
planning.
The responsibility inherent to the legal provisions, in addition to an
increasing level of awareness and knowledge among the administrative
class, highlight the importance of the role played by Local Bodies with
regards to risk forecasting and prevention.
For a Local Administrator, the establishment of a civil protection plan
therefore means the possibility of implementing a useful, decision-making
support instrument during the emergency phases, but also the opportunity
to program the most suitable risk mitigation and territorial development
and management policies.
The regulation requires that the emergency plans include risk assess-
ment through the development of risk scenarios; provisions for hydraulic
risk, methodologies for the assessment of flood fields, and the construc-
tion of hazard maps have been amply described above.
An example is found in the cartographies produced on the Sesia River
as part of the Floodaware Project in which two risk scenarios directly
correlated to the criticality levels of the regional warning system were
constructed:
• Level 2: moderate criticality, which corresponds to the exceeding of
ordinary flood levels defined as the discharge that transits and entirely
occupies the river bed with levels approaching those of ground or
embankment levels. The erosion of the most vulnerable banks begins
to become significant and areas adjacent to the river begin to flood;
• Level 3: elevated criticality, which corresponds to the exceeding of
the extraordinary flood level, defined as the discharge that cannot be
contained in the bed, therefore causing serious flood conditions.
An example of the maps produced can be found in Figure 3.4.14. The
scenarios outlined are directly connected to the advanced flood warning
Figure 3.4.14 Flood risk scenarios of the Sesia River in Gattinara for ordinary flooding (left) and extraordinary
flooding (right) and the relative descriptive table.
service and to warning levels issued by the Regional Centro Funzionale

and can therefore serve as a foundation for the realisation of civil pro-
tection plans. These predefined scenarios are certainly useful for the
programming of interventions, but it is fundamental that the issuing of
a criticality warning be followed by the territorial authorities starting up
activities aimed at on-site observation of the true dynamics of the ongoing
event. These activities must also be gradually intensified as the situation
continues to worsen.
In fact, the complexity of the phenomena at hand and the perturbations
generated by unpredictable phenomena can also noticeably impact flood-
ing. One of the most noted examples regards floating material that may
occlude the bearing distance of bridges during major flooding, limiting
the flow and significantly increasing water levels upstream, resulting in
the flooding of territories that would normally be safe.
With regards to embanked rivers, public safety plans become even
more important for the verification of the conditions of the embankments.
These controls are already provided for by Royal Decrees n. 523/1904 and
n. 2669/1937 in terms of flood service and emergency hydraulic interven-
tions for reaches classified in the first and second categories. Lastly, it must
be remembered that the administrations that use the plans must institute
a permanent verification of current risk in order to monitor the inevitable
changes of hazard and vulnerability of the territory over time. For this rea-
son it is advisable to program periodic updates of the scenarios in order to
monitor eventual modifications in the river or the morphological features,
or even the realisation of new defence works and new settlements.
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3.5 Forecasting Landslides
3.5.1 PRINCIPLES AND METHODS OF FORECASTING

LANDSLIDES
Recent studies have resulted in the classification of Piemonte land-

slides, identifying the typologies listed below (Project IFFI – Inventario
Fenomeni Franosi in Italia – Italian Landslide Inventory, 2004)
The classification criteria are based on the grouping of the landslides
by the type of movement:
• rock falls and toppling failures;
• rapid flows;
• translational and rotational sliding;
• complex phenomena;
• slow flows;
• deep-seated gravitational slope deformation.
Slope instability depends on the geo-structural conditions of the rock

mass or the geotechnical characteristics of the soils, and is sometimes
significantly influenced by phenomena that condition or cause its onset,
like rain, the melting snow cover, earthquakes, the temperature range
(cycles of freezing and thaw), river flooding at the foot of a slope, careless
modifications of the territory by man, etc.
In general, there is not a one-to-one correspondence between land-
slides and their triggering phenomena, in that the evolution of a landslide
can be conditioned by different factors that frequently contribute to the
instability of a slope through complex interactions. In some cases, how-
ever, a direct and translatable connection can be identified in quantitative
terms between the landslide and its triggering factors, as occurs for
example between rapid flows and rain; this relationship appears more
complex in the case of translational rock slides typical of the Langhe area
and in the case of slow flows in clay formations, typical of the province
of Alessandria, but is uncertain in the case of rock falls.
A fundamental aspect of forecasting consists, where possible, of
the identification and quantification of the triggering factors and of the
comprehension of the circumstances in which these factors actually com-
promise slope stability. Whenever the complexity of the phenomena makes
it difficult to identify the causes, forecasting can make use of indicators
correlated to the evolutionary characteristics of the phenomenon.
Usually the forecast is expressed in terms of probability of occur-
rence of a specific phenomenon and is characterised by three fundamental
components that must be analysed together: space, time, and intensity.
According to the scope of the forecast, one component may assume more
relevance than the others: in prevention activities, like land use planning
and mitigation, the spatial and intensity forecast is fundamental, while in
civil protection activities, the element of time is also of vital importance.
The literature indicates different types of methods for the assessment
of slope stability/hazard with characteristics that differ in their complex-
ity, the number of parameters used, and territorial validity. A list of the
methods used by Arpa Piemonte, described in detail in the following para-
graphs, can be found in Table 3.5.1. The degree of complexity and the
number of parameters are expressed in relative form. Territorial validity
is intended as the spatial resolution of the forecast: a punctual approach
refers to the capacity of the forecast to localize individual landslides; an
areal approach refers instead to the method’s capacity to localise, more
generally speaking, the areas prone to instability, each of which is charac-
terised by a homogeneous context, but without being able to distinguish
individual trigger sites.
TABLE 3.5.1 SLOPE STABILITY MODELS ADOPTED BY ARPA PIEMONTE
NUMBER OF TERRITORIAL
METHOD COMPLEXITY PARAMETERS ENVIRONMENT
1st order empirical-pluviometric method Low Low Areal

2nd order empirical-pluviometric method Medium Medium Areal
Empirical-hydrological method High Moderate Areal
Statistical method High High Punctual
Mechanical-hydrological method Medium Medium Punctual
* 1st order: the method only considers the rainfall variable

** 2nd order: the method considers the rainfall and other physical variables
The application of methods to different contexts of the regional ter-

ritory depends on the scope for which the forecast was intended and the
characteristics of the landslide itself. For example, when forecasts for civil
protection purposes refer to well known and particularly critical phenom-
ena, they may have an areal importance as well as a local significance: an
example would be rapid flows that generally and indiscriminately involve
specific mountainous and hilly sectors.
The application of the methods used by Arpa Piemonte may be
extended, in some sample areas (locally to an individual phenomena or
areally to groups of phenomena with similar characteristics), to other
territories for which the same detailed information is available.
However, it must be taken into account that methods requiring a high
number of parameters and an in-depth knowledge of the environment in
which the phenomenon develops may be applied mainly in punctual or
limited areal environments; on the contrary, the methods that require a
low number of parameters may be used more easily in vaster areas. On
Forecasting Landslides 355
the other hand, the adoption of more sophisticated methods or methods

that require a greater number of parameters result in forecasts that are
potentially more accurate.
3.5.2 THE EMPIRICAL-PLUVIOMETRIC METHOD
3.5.2.1 Description of the method

The method consists of a simplified approach aimed at identifying a cor-
relation between rainfall and the triggering of a landslide, regardless of
the laws of physics that govern the slope instability mechanisms.
Whenever the method considers only rainfall and does not rely on an
in-depth analysis of all the morphological elements, land use and covering,
or geological, geometric, and hydrological features of the slope, the result
is fixed thresholds that are defined as 1st order in scientific literature.
The methods that consider other physical variables and evaluate how
critical rainfall varies according to the characteristics of the environment
where the event develops are defined as being of the 2nd order.
The description of the method can be structured by distinguishing
between the collection and the elaboration of data. The collection of
information involves areas in which:
• a significant number of landslides were triggered in conjunction with
intense rainfall;
• information concerning the date and time of landslide triggering and
geological data are available;
• complete and sufficient temporal data are available from rain gauge
stations located close enough to the landslides.
Given a rainfall event during which a landslide was triggered, the
method of elaboration is based on the:
• identification of a rain gauge located in proximity to the landslide;
• identification of the date and time the landslide was triggered;
• identification of the date and time of rainfall onset, if it is believed
that the rainfall event was significant for the landslide; or, by using a
more complex approach, calculation of the interval of influence of the
precipitation on slope stability, characteristic for each phenomenon, in
the hypothesis that the rainfall is significant on a greater scale than that
of the event;
• calculation of the critical rainfall in the interval of time defined for
the previous point. Critical rainfall can be expressed by means of plu-
viometric quantities like rain with assigned return period, maximum
rainfall, cumulated rainfall, and average hourly intensity. In order
to guarantee a more effective comparison among different territories,
these quantities may be normalised, or compared to other pluviomet-
ric ones that are representative of the average behaviour of a certain
territory: for example, Average Annual Precipitation (Precipitazione

Media Annua – PMA).
The empirical pluviometric method usually associates the probability
P[Lt ] that a landslide Lt is triggered at instant t with a function, Y (t),
dependent on the precipitation that preceded instant t:
P[Lt ] = f [Y (t)] (3.5.1)
For rapid flows, the function Y (t) is frequently associated with the average
hourly intensity I , while the time (t) is associated with the duration of the
precipitation D,and is expressed with the formula below:
Y (t) → I = a · Db (3.5.2)
in which a and b are constants that depend on the characteristics of the

environment being studied (Figure 3.5.1).
100
CANCELLI E NOVA 1985
CANNON ELLEN 1985

Intensity (mm/h)
10
CAINE 1980
1 WIECZOREK E SARMIENTO 1987
CERIANI ET AL. 1994

Figure 3.5.1 Representation CLARIZIA ET AL. 1996
of some of the Intensity vs. 0.1
Duration correlations 1 10 100 1000
available in the literature. Duration (h)
3.5.2.2 Considerations on the applicability of the method

The empirical pluviometric method based on thresholds of the 1st and
2nd orders provides good results if applied to those types of landslides
for which the trigger is directly correlated to the rainfall. This category
includes rapid flows, or those that involve the detrital-colluvial and
eluvial-colluvial covering for which subsurface water circulation is not
conditioned by complex hydrogeological situations.
Due to the saturation and fluidification of the surface sheets, rapid
flows respond better to both approaches, while deeper phenomena or
those with more articulated dynamics obtain better results exclusively with
the empirical method based on 2nd order thresholds that, as specified in
the previous paragraphs, take more factors into account, like geological,
hydrogeological, and morphometrical characteristics, etc. For other types
of phenomena – like complex landslides, rock falls, slow flows, and rota-
tional slides, that involve portions of the substratum, the applicability of
both methodologies is highly problematic and in some cases impossible,
given the difficulty of fully understanding the role played by the rain in
contributing to the instability of such phenomena.
The empirical-pluviometric method requires a certain consistency so
as to guarantee the feasibility of the analyses carried out in order to
determine the triggering thresholds. The precision of the chronological
information is essential for determining the exact quantity of critical rain-
fall that, according to the type of landslide, can be represented by recorded
values during the event or during a longer period.
The hour is unknown and the date is rarely available for most of the
triggers known to have occurred in Piemonte from the past century until
today, especially for older triggers. Another problem that arises for older
triggers is the quality of the rainfall data provided by antiquated rain gauge
recording systems and the reduced density of the rain gauge network used
up until the second half of the 1980s. In contrast to the modern rain gauge
network, the information was acquired manually through a daily reading
or by means of pen recording rain gauge (pluviograph), which tended to
complicate its usefulness when entire historical series for numerous rain
gauges had to be analysed.
Furthermore, in spite of the high density of the rain gauge network on
regional territory, the attribution of rainfall data measured in one point to
a landslide that occurred in its surroundings is not always reliable, given
the spatial variability of precipitation. The reliability of the correlations
between pluviometric measures and landslide triggering points diminishes
in function of the distance between the rain gauge and the landslide site,
and is also conditioned by the orographic component. These difficulties
are less limiting for events characterised by prolonged and widespread
precipitation, while they may create problems for the analysis of localized,
brief, and intense precipitations.
In order to compensate for the limits related to the localised recording
of rainfall data in rain gauges, meteorological radar capable of a distribu-
tive observation and quantification of rainfall is used. By criss-crossing
the rain gauge data with that from the radar, it is possible to obtain more
reliable information on rainfall distribution.
Determining the time of influence of the rainfall on slope stability
would require the knowledge of hydrogeological parameters, which are
in turn dependent on numerous factors linked to the characteristics of
deposits, to the deep-seated water circulation, to the type of vegetation,
and to the intrinsic characteristics of the slopes (morphometry, exposure,
etc.). However, the lack of sufficiently detailed data demands that the
identification of the time of influence be determined by means of a cross-
analysis of the historical series of triggerings and rainfalls.
In particular hydrogeological situations like karstic, hydrothermal,
or periglacial environments, or complex multinappe systems, rainfall is
summed with other typologies of water inflows that are difficult to quan-
tify, but that may sometimes relegate a minor role to the precipitations
that trigger landslides.
3.5.2.3 Application of the method to rapid flows

In order to identify a valid empirical correlation on a regional level,
rapid flows triggered during the following rainfall events were taken into
consideration:
• November 1994, areas of Cuneo, Torino, Asti, and Biella;
• July 1996, Cusio;
• July and September 1998, Verbano and the areas of Vercelli and
Alessandria;
• April 2000, area of Torino;
• June 2000, areas of Cuneo and Torino;
• October 2000, Ossola and the areas of Vercelli, Biella, and Torino;
• May 2002, Ossola, Sesia, and the areas of Biella and Alessandria;
• June 2002, Ossola, Sesia, and the areas of Biella and Upper Canavese;
• July 2002, area of Cuneo;
• August 2002, Ossola and the area of Alessandria.
100
E
D
C
B
A
Intensity (mm/h)
10
Figure 3.5.2 Intensity vs.

triggering threshold
Duration diagram for the
Piedmontese territory with
different percentages of 0.1
envelope curves: A 90%, B 1 10 100 1000
75%, C 50%, D 25%, E 10%. Duration (h)
In Figure 3.5.2, where each point represents the rainfall that proved
to be critical for the triggering of a landslide, a fitting curve and a curve
that envelops the points, parallel to the former, with the criterion of partial
inclusion of the predefined percentage points, were drawn.
The choice of the most suitable percentage to use in forecasting
depends on the contrasting needs to consider the greatest number of cases
possible on one hand, and, on the other, to exclude the sporadic and
insufficiently representative cases of average behaviour.
The empirical relation, defined according to the study of past rainfall

events, was associated with each of the rain gauges of the regional auto-
matic network of Arpa Piemonte Centro Funzionale and used to develop
an experimental real-time visualisation software for criticality of slopes
induced by intense precipitations (Figure 3.5.3). The following example
demonstrates the assessment of the software at 08:50 UTC on December
4th, 2003: the colour attributed to each rain gauge station according to
a criticality scale, which takes into account the empirical relation men-
tioned above, allows the visualisation of which rain gauge locations reach
rainfall levels that proved to be critical in the past.
Figure 3.5.3 Experimental

software for real time
visualisation of criticality on
the slopes induced by intense
precipitation. In yellow, the
rain gauges that have
reached rainfall values
corresponding to 100% of the
critical threshold.
Over the course of further activities aimed at defining the 2nd order
thresholds, efforts were made to observe if the identification of the critical
rainfall according to geographic, geologic, morphologic, and land use
discriminants, allowed a zoning of the regional territory that would allow
the defining of valid thresholds on a sub-regional level. The study was
conducted on the following events:
June 1992, October 1992, September 1993, November 1994, July
1996, June 1998, July 1998, September 1998, April 2000, June 2000,
October 2000, February 2002, May 2002, June 2002, July 2002, August
2002, April 2004, May 2004.
It must be emphasised how the attempt to differentiate the triggering
thresholds by observing the distribution of the points representing crit-
ical rainfalls on the stability diagram requires a cross-analysis with other
physical variables that, if treated individually, provide a partial indication
of their influence on the critical rainfall. The results of two elaborations
are discussed here as examples.
In the first case, the critical rainfalls were chromatically distinguished
according to the substratum, the covering of which was subjected to the
Figure 3.5.4 Intensity vs. Duration stability diagram with critical rains distinguished according to the substratum.
triggering of landslides: it can be observed that the points representing

the crystalline substratum (blue symbols – Amphibolites, Gneiss, Syenite)
occupy, in comparison to the overall distribution of the points, the upper
part of the diagram, while the corresponding envelope curve, which is
valid for 80% of the cases, has a minimum discard of 45% in comparison
to the regional one of equal percentage (Figure 3.5.4).
In the second case, the critical rains were chromatically distinguished
according to the land use of the slopes where landslides were triggered
(Figure 3.5.5): it can be observed that the points representing the wooded
surfaces (violet symbols) occupy, in comparison to the overall distribution
of the points, the upper part of the diagram, while the corresponding
envelop curve, which is valid for 80% of the cases, has a minimum discard
of 46% in comparison to the regional one of equal percentage.
3.5.2.4 Application of the method to translational slides

Studies conducted over recent years in Piemonte have highlighted the
existence of specific relations between the triggering of translational slides
(also known as planar slides) typical of the Langhe area and the rel-
ative pluviometric regime. In fact, the evolution of the phenomena calls
Figure 3.5.5 Intensity vs. Duration stability diagram with critical rains distinguished according to land use.
attention to a particular concentration of the activations during the autumn

and spring periods, underlining a marked seasonal character of the phe-
nomenon and suggesting an overview of the cause-effect relations that
frequently indicate the leading role played by precipitations. An experi-
mental and preliminary verification of this relation was carried out on
a sample of landslides triggered over the past 40 years in an area that
stretches from the province of Cuneo to the province of Asti. The samples
were selected according to the following criteria:
• rainfall represented the triggering cause;
• the presence of multiple historical activations;
• availability of rain gauge data that documents the pluviometric regime;
• availability of quality information concerning relation to the existence
of extensive historical documentation.
An analysis of the daily pluviometric data grouped on a monthly or
multi-monthly scale (rainy season) and divided according to the evolu-
tionary stage of the phenomenon (incipient or developed), was carried
out for the cases selected. The experimental approach highlighted signif-
icant differences in the quantity of rain required to activate the landslides
according to the developmental stage considered. In particular, for the
first tension cracks, bulges, and depressions typical of the incipient state
to appear, a quantity of rain much greater than that responsible for the
subsequent consistent evolution of the detachment and the mobilization

of the blocks along the sliding surfaces (effects typical of the advanced
stage) was needed.
The diagram in Figure 3.5.6 shows an example of empirical pluvio-
metric elaboration of critical seasonal rains. The cumulative rainfall over
a period of four months was related to the period of the year in which the
triggering of the phenomenon was observed and was distinguished accord-
ing to its development stage: Incipient Stage (red triangular symbols) and
Advanced Stage (black triangular symbols).
800
Incipient phase Advanced phase
(first phase according to Govi, 1985) (third phase according to Govi, 1985)
700 Space of triggering
of incipient phase Following incipient phase Unknown phases
(second phase according to Govi, 1985)
600
Cumulated rainfall (mm)
500
Space of triggering of
following incipient phase and
400 advanced phase
300
200
100
0
october november february march april may
Months
Figure 3.5.6 Stability diagram of Cumulated Rainfall vs. Months. The position of the symbols (red triangles:
incipient stage, black triangles: advanced stage) allows the identification of similarly behaved areas on the
surface of the diagram, differentiating the activation thresholds.
3.5.3 THE EMPIRICAL-HYDROLOGICAL METHOD

This method does not analyse the strictly hydrogeological and geotechnical
aspects linked to underground water conditions, or more generally, to the
pore pressures that impact the processes of instability, but rather is limited
to the empirical identification of relations between rainfall and landslides
by indirectly considering the quantity of water that infiltrates into the
substratum prior to the triggering.
In particular, on two sample areas of the regional territory, Arpa

Piemonte used the FlaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls)
method, proposed by Sirangelo & Versace (1992) and later developed
by the same authors in more recent works (Sirangelo et al., 1996; Ver-
sace et al., 2002), which allows the forecasting of the triggering of
landslides according to the precipitations measured or forecasted with
stochastic and/or meteorological models. The model, which is applicable
to a single landslide or a homogeneous area subjected to the same type
of phenomenon, is based on the identification of a mobilization func-
tion Y (t),that depends on prior precipitation and synthetically takes into
account the characteristics of the landslide. Once the mobilization function
has been defined, it is possible to identify critical values, the surpassing
of which is associated with a higher probability of movement.
In each instant of time t, the mobilization function depends on the
quantity of water infiltrated into the substratum prior to that specific
instant:
Y (t) = f [I (u)] −∞<u≤t (3.5.3)
with I (u) being the intensity of the infiltration at time u. The mobilization
function represents a synthetic indicator of the risk of activation induced
by previous rainfall on the slope and is analytically defined in such a way
as to assume only non-negative values. Moreover, being an indicator, the
knowledge of its absolute value is not important, its use being linked to
the ratio between the assumed value in different instants. It then follows
that the functionY (t) can be defined unless nonessential multiplicative
constants. The FlaIR model assumes a convolutive type of relation between
the mobilization function Y (t) and the intensity of the infiltration I (u):
t
Y (t) = c ψ(t − u)I (u)du (3.5.4)
o
where ψ(t − u) is the transfer function (or filter), and c is a nonessential

multiplicative constant cited previously. The transfer function synthet-
ically considers the relations that exist between the slope stability and
the meteoric precipitations. Various expressions can be adopted for the
transfer function, thereby ensuring the FlaIR model great flexibility and
the capacity to model situations characterised by triggering mechanisms
that differ greatly among themselves.

Estimating the transfer function parameters is one of the more delicate
aspects of the FlaIR model. The main problem lies in the gathering of
complete information on historic mobilizations of the phenomena being
analysed. If complete information is lacking, it may happen that, given
equivalent analytical structures of the transfer function, there are many
parameter values that are compatible with the estimation criterion adopted.
It is therefore impossible to identify a particular parameter vector, but
perhaps only identify a region of admissibility of the parameters.
The field of admissibility of the parameters may be defined by using
a so-called ranking criterion. This means evaluating the mobilization
functionY (t) over the entire variability interval of the parameters and
admitting all the values that induce Y (t) to assume, in correspondence
with the k historic mobilizations, values that fall into the first k places
in its ranking. In other words, they must fall into the first k positions of
the value sequence of the mobilization function reordered in a decreasing
order. The parametric estimate also allows the identification of the lower
limit value Ycr,li , and an upper limit value, Ycr,ls . The former will cor-
respond to the maximum Y (t) that did not cause mobilization, while the
latter will correspond to the minimum Y (t), occurring together with the
documented historical mobilizations.
3.5.3.3 Application of the method to rapid flow and translational

sliding
The FlaIR method was applied to two areas of Piemonte:
• the Lanzo Valley for rapid flows;
• the Langhe area for translational slides.
Hyetograph
300
250
amount of precipitation (mm)
200
150
100
50
0
01/01/38
01/01/40
01/01/42
01/01/44
01/01/46
01/01/48
01/01/50
01/01/52
01/01/54
01/01/56
01/01/58
01/01/60
01/01/62
01/01/64
01/01/66
01/01/68
01/01/70
01/01/72
01/01/74
01/01/76
01/01/78
01/01/80
01/01/82
01/01/84
01/01/86
01/01/88
01/01/90
01/01/92
01/01/94
01/01/96
01/01/98
01/01/00
01/01/02
Time (days)
Figure 3.5.7 Examples of daily pluviometric histogram with indications of triggerings (red peaks) and
associated transfer and mobilization functions.
Gamma function
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Time (days)
Mobilization function
70
5/11/94
60
50 15/10/00
7/11/62 1/04/81
40
Y(t)
30
20
10
0
01/01/38
01/01/40
01/01/42
01/01/44
01/01/46
01/01/48
01/01/50
01/01/52
01/01/54
01/01/56
01/01/58
01/01/60
01/01/62
01/01/64
01/01/66
01/01/68
01/01/70
01/01/72
01/01/74
01/01/76
01/01/78
01/01/80
01/01/82
01/01/84
01/01/86
01/01/88
01/01/90
01/01/92
01/01/94
01/01/96
01/01/98
01/01/00
01/01/02
Time (days)
Figure 3.5.7 (Continued)

The choice of landslides was made in consideration of the fact that the
model is not applicable if one of the following conditions exists:
• movement triggered by factors other than meteoric precipitations;
• lack of information concerning the dates of the historic mobilization;
• lack of pluviometric data;
• evident modifications of the sites, casting doubt on the hypothesis of
stationarity of the phenomenon;
• landslides that develop in rock.
Following the identification of the admissible landslides, detailed
analyses were carried out on the environments where instabilities develop
and pluviometric events are related to the triggering of landslides. The
landslides selected were subjected to analyses with the FlaIR model to
identify the structure of the transfer function and the value of its param-
eters for each phenomenon and for each group of phenomena belonging
to environments that are believed to be homogeneous.
The study resulted in the association of a mobilization function to
the phenomena studied and the realisation of MoniFLaIR, experimental
software for the real-time monitoring and visualisation of criticality on
slopes induced by intense precipitation. The example below demonstrates
the evaluation of the software from 08:30 UTC on August 4th, 2004: the
colour attributed to each environment according to a criticality signal scale
allows the visualisation of which environments reach the level of rainfall
that proved to be critical in the past (Figure 3.5.8).
INFORMATION GIVEN IN EACH QUADRANT
Monitoring Window: it shows the highest criticality recorded in

Area 1 and Area 2 updating every 30”.
Forecasting Window: it shows the highest forecasted criticality

in Area 1 and Area 2, starting from +6h, +12h, +18h, +24h.
Geographic Detail Window: it shows the criticality recorded or

forecasted in each Area or each phenomenon in Area 2. The
size of symbols that are representative of study domain is
proportional to extent of the ara involved by landslides.
Data Window: it shows a quantitative indication of criticality

recorded and forecasted in each Area or landslide by means
of Flair Index (I.F.), calculated as ratio between the
Mobilization Function observed or forecasted and the limit
one.
Figure 3.5.8 Interface of the MoniFLaIR, 2004 module.
3.5.4 STATISTICAL METHOD

The statistical method is designed to forecast landslides not from a
physical point of view, but by identifying existing relations between
the characteristics of the territory and the landslide. Whenever the

phenomenon being investigated has a sufficient spatial and temporal repet-
itiveness and present homogeneous characteristics, it is possible to statis-
tically describe these properties and, according to their dominant spatial
connotation, put functions offered by GIS data management to good use.
The advantage of the application of such methods on statistically rep-
resentative portions of the territory is the possibility to extend the results
as forecasts to other similar contexts.
Given the complexity of the phenomena at hand, a multivariate analy-
sis is generally used. This is an elaboration technique for statistic cases
that makes contemporary use of multiple variables (in contrast to a uni-
variate analysis), until eventual multiple correlations among variables are
compromised and their statistic weight is established. In particular, the
discriminant analysis has been demonstrated to be a particularly useful
tool for identifying which variables discriminate between two or more
natural groups and for a more accurate classification of the cases into
different groups than is possible with a simple random selection.
This allows the identification of a relations between the event and a
series of parameters and variables regardless of the physical significance
that such relations may assume. Having established if each element of the
territory is actually Stable or Unstable (beginning with the systematic sur-
veys of past events), the statistical model learns from these known initial
situations, fully exploiting the existing information on the status of the
instability. By suitably combining the available variables, the statistical
model can reconstruct the original situation, giving rise to simple polyno-
mial first degree equations that can be used during forecasting phases in
other zones.
As part of the CARG project (see 2.4), a statistical method for the
forecasting of translational landslides that, although they can be traced to
a simple geometric and mechanical schematization, are characterised by
triggering parameters that are difficult to quantify, has been applied.
In addition to the objective problems of determining these param-
eters (difficult sampling in shear zones), there is also the impossibility
of applying an appropriate mechanical model that can be generalised to a
wide territorial context characterised by multiple instabilities. Therefore
the availability of ample historical data relative to the spatial and temporal
distribution of the landslides resulted in the decision to use a purely statist-
ical approach, thanks to which it is possible to find a relation between
landslide events and parameters that influence their triggering by using
multivariate statistics.

Discriminant analysis is a highly useful tool for identifying variables that
allow the discrimination among different groups and a more accurate
classification of the cases into different groups than is possible with a
simple random selection. It considers phenomena (biological, clinical,

physical, economic, social, etc.) in their entirety, taking into account the
different characteristics (i.e. the variables) that best serve to describe the
phenomena themselves: from three or four variables up to, in special cases,
several hundred variables.
The simultaneous analysis of multiple variables does not mean, how-
ever, that a better analysis will result from a higher number of variables.
If the variables at hand (presumed) are added to other only slightly sig-
nificant variables, the result is a dilution of the information and, in turn,
a more difficult analysis of the data. There are also methods that help to
evaluate the relative importance of the different variables (like factorial
analysis), but must in any case be weighed in light of experience and
common sense.
The basic idea of discriminant function analysis is to determine if
groups differ from the average of each variable and then use these variables
to predict to which group new cases belong. This therefore means min-
imising the variability of the elements within the group and then maximise
it among the groups.
For example, if the heights of a random sample of 50 men and 50
women were measured, the women would be shorter than the men on
average. This difference is reflected in the difference between the average
heights and therefore the height variable allows us to discriminate between
men and women with a greater probability than mere chance. If a person
is tall, then it is probably a man, while if instead the person is short, it
is probably a woman. A strong correlation between the two variables can
be seen in Figure 3.5.9 on the left. The subjects (points on the graph) are
aligned according to the relation between the variables and no particular
groupings are obvious. Vice-versa, the graph on the right demonstrates
an evident relation (groups, relatives) among subjects at the expense of
the relation between the variables. In fact, representing the graph on the
right with a regression line is out of the question. It can therefore be said
that strongly correlated variables are of little use in unveiling relations
between subjects, while scarcely correlated variables (independent) often
bring interesting relations among subjects to light.
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
Figure 3.5.9 Example of correlated variables (left) and grouped cases (right).
The principal assumptions of the model are the independence of

the variables among themselves and their normal distribution. While
normality is a characteristic that is preferred but not fatal for the analysis
if it is not present, the independence of the variables is a necessary char-

acteristic. Independence means that a variable is not a linear combination
of any of the others or – in other words, using a geometric concept – that
the variables are two-to-two orthogonal. This assumption lends a clearer
meaning to Discriminant Analysis: each variable corresponds to an axis
of a n-dimensional space and each case is identified by the linear combin-
ation of its own distances (Euclidean or other) from each axis. In a system
of orthogonal axes, the Euclidean distance corresponds to the hypotenuse
of a right triangle whose sides are therefore the difference between the val-
ues of the two variables. This is true if and only if the axes (variables) are
orthogonal (otherwise it would be like applying the Pythagorean Theorem
to a triangle that is not a right triangle). In terms of variables, the condition
of orthogonality (90◦ ) corresponds to the independence of the variables.
The higher the degree of correlation between two variables, the more their
vector space closes with an increasingly narrow angle. Paradoxically, if
the same variable is applied to both axes, the vector space is reduced to a
line. With mathematical methods we can make the variable orthogonal in
order to calculate valid distances.
More specifically, it can be asked if two or more groups differ signifi-
cantly in relation to the average of a particular variable. Therefore, if the
average for a variable is significantly different in different groups, then it
can be said that this variable discriminates between the two groups.
Classification
Another of the objectives for which the Discriminant Analysis is applied
is the classification of the cases not used for the creation of the statistic
model. Once the model is completed and the discriminant functions are
derived, it is possible to use the classification functions to determine to
which group each case most likely belongs. There are as many classifica-
tion functions are there are groups. Each function allows the calculation of
classification scores for each case of each group by applying the formula:
Si = ci + wi1 x1 + wi2 x2 + · · · + wim xm (3.5.5)
where:
the subscript i denotes the respective group;
the subscripts 1, 2, . . . , m indicate the m variables;
ci is a constant for the i-th group;
wij is the weight for the j-th variable in the calculation of classification
scores for the i-th group;
xj is the observed value for the respective case for the j-th variable;
Si is the resulting classification score.
It is therefore possible to use the classification function to directly
calculate the classification scores for some new observations. Once the
scores are calculated for a case, it will be classified as belonging to the

group for which it obtained the highest score.
3.5.4.3 Application of the method to translational landslides

The CARG project successfully applied this method to the Dego Sheet on
a scale of 1:50,000. To carry out the Discriminant Analysis, it was neces-
sary to first identify a group variables to which a prior classification of the
group could be attributed. This means attributing each cell of the study
domain to one of the Groups selected as the basis for discrimination. The
belonging of each cell to the Stable Group or to the Unstable Group was
chosen as the group variable. This was obtained through the topological
overlaying of the regular 10 m grid in which the Dego Sheet, was dis-
cretized with the survey of translational landslides that occurred during
the floods of 1968, 1972, 1974, and 1994. It was then possible to identify
a priori the belonging of each cell to either the Stable Group or Unstable
Group. This variable represents the initial condition of discrimination
that the statistical model seeks to reconstruct through the combination of
the variables available. Operatively speaking, in the GIS Esri© ArcView
3.3 environment, all the informative layers that represent a variable were
reconducted to a single matrix, in which each line is an elementary cell,
and therefore a statistical case, while each column is a variable.
Figure 3.5.10 illustrates a detail of the study domain in which the con-
cept of an elementary cell derived from the grid of the Digital Elevation
Model and the characteristics attributed to the barycentre of the cell itself
are exemplified, while Figure 3.5.11 illustrates the matrix of 2,249 by
2,683 columns, for a total of 6,034,067 cells, as it is presented within the
SPSS© statistical analysis software. It can be seen that each cell is unmis-
takably identified by the pair of coordinates X andY, expressed in metres in
the UTM ED 1950 reference system, which makes it possible to maintain
the spatial correspondence between the cell and the statistical character-
istic that is obtained following the analysis in the SPSS© . The results
obtained are contained in the following tables, which include the percent-
age of success (Table 3.5.2), the discriminant potential of each variable
(Table 3.5.3) and the values of the coefficients of the Classification Func-
tions relative to the Stable Group and the Unstable Group (Table 3.5.4).
Table 3.5.2 supplies all the details needed to evaluate the quality of
the Discriminant Analysis carried out. In fact, the reader can see that
74.2% of the cells declared to be stable before the analysis were effectively
re-classified in the Stable Group, while 78.9% of the cells declared to
be unstable a priori were correctly reclassified in the Unstable Group.
Overall, the ratio of the cells correctly reclassified (2,415,687 stable and
902,301 unstable) and all the cells in the domain analysed is 75.4%, which
can be assimilated to a globally successful evaluation.
The first column of Table 3.5.3 illustrates the standardised coeffi-
cients of the canonical discriminant function. These coefficients can be
Figure 3.5.10 Example of the discretization of the study domain and attribution of the values of the variables
at the barycentre of each cell.
interpreted in such a way as to understand how each individual variable

contributes to the discriminant: the higher the standardised coefficient,
the higher the contribution of the variable in discriminating among the
groups. In any case, these coefficients do not indicate from among which
groups they discriminate, but reveal the unique (partial) contribution of
each variable on discriminant functions.
The second column of Table 3.5.3 lists the factor structure coefficients
that indicate the simple correlations between the variables and the func-
tions. The factor structure matrix is another way of determining which
variables mark or define a particular discriminant function. The factor
structure coefficients are the correlations between the variables in the
model and the discriminant function. These correlations may be thought
of as factorial weights of the variables on each discriminant function.
Therefore:
• the structure coefficients indicate the simple correlations between the
variables and the discriminant functions;
Figure 3.5.11 Analysis matrix in the SPSS© environment. Each line corresponds to an element of the Digital
Elevation Model and each cell indicates the value of each variable in that point. Notice that the univocality of
each element is guaranteed by the pair of coordinates X and Y.
TABLE 3.5.2 RESULTS OF DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

FORECAST OF MEMBERSHIP
Group
Stable Unstable Total
Stable-Unstable
Number Stable 2,415,687 841,053 3,256,740
Number Unstable 240,589 902,301 1,142,890
% Stable 74.2 25.8 100.0
% Unstabile 21.1 78.9 100.0
75.4% of the cases classified a priori as stable or unstable was
correctly re-classified by the statistical model
• the discriminant function coefficients indicate the unique (partial)

contribution of each variable to the discriminant functions.
If labels of significance are to be assigned to the discriminant func-
tions, then the structure coefficients should be used or interpreted; if,
TABLE 3.5.3 STANDARDIZED CANONICAL DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION

COEFFICIENTS AND STRUCTURE MATRIX
STANDARDIZED CANONICAL
DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION STRUCTURE MATRIX
COEFFICIENTS
Slope aspect ⫺0.682 ⫺0.733

Slope dip 0.468 0.580
Expected maximum yearly 24h
0.329 0.417
rainfall with100 years return period
Landcover 0.130 0.334
Litho-stratigraphic units 0.137 0.333
Remotely sensed lineament density ⫺0.048 ⫺0.044
Slope curvature 0.024 0.016
Flow accumulation (catchment area) 0.024 0.004
TABLE 3.5.4 CLASSIFICATION FUNCTION COEFFICIENT FOR EACH VARIABLE AND GROUP
VARIABLE GROUP
Stable Unstable
Slope aspect imm 2.167E-02 3.050E-02
Slope dip incl 0.226 0.156
Expected maximum yearly 24h
24h100y 0.420 0.404
rainfall with100 years return period
Landcover lc 1.994E-02 1.833E-02
Litho-stratigraphic units lit ⫺0.867 ⫺0.892
Remotely sensed lineament density dens 6.516E-03 6.815E-03
Slope curvature curv 2.197E-02 8.516E-03
Flow accumulation (catchment area) flow 1.782E-05 1.565E-05
Constant ⫺47.881 ⫺44.979
instead, one wished to know the unique contribution of each variable to

the discriminant functions, then the discriminant function coefficients are
used. Based on the considerations made, an analysis of Table 3.5.3 leads
to the conclusion that the variables that contribute more to the discrimin-
ation are the slope dip direction and dip, while the least important one is
the contributing catchment area.
As described, one of the objectives for which the DiscriminantAnalysis
is applied is the predictive classification of the cases. Once the model is
completed and the discriminant functions are derived, how well can we
predict to which group a particular case will belong?
The Discriminant Analysis will automatically calculate the Classifi-
cation Functions that can be used to determine to which group each case
most likely belongs. There are as many classification functions are there
are groups.
Table 3.5.4 illustrates the Classification Function coefficients for each
group. Once the classification score has been calculated for a case, it will
be classified as belonging to the group for which it obtained the highest
score and it is then possible to calculate its probability of belonging.
These are called a posteriori and provide the probability that the respective
case belongs to a particular group, based on the knowledge of the values
of the other variables. This probability constitutes the hazard in a strict
sense of the word, expressed in spatial terms and, indirectly, in temporal
terms, because one of the discriminant variables – the Maximum annual
expected rainfall in 24 h with 100-year Return Period – has a temporal
significance.
In this way it is possible to extrapolate the statistical model to the-
oretically unknown zones, as long as they have characteristics that are
reasonably similar to the zone in which the statistical model was gener-
ated. In any case, this opportunity must be calibrated properly in keeping
with the model’s constraints and conditions of use. In this specific case,
the two polynomials that represent the Classification Functions for the
Stable group and the Instable group are:
Gruppostabile = 2.167 · 10−2 · (imm) + 0.226 · (incl) + 0.420

· (24h100y) + 1.994 · 10−2 · (lc) − 0.867 · (lit)
+ 6.516 · 10−3 · (dens) + 2.197 · 10−2 · (curv)
+ 1.782 · 10−5 · ( flow) − 47.881 (3.5.6)
Gruppoinstabile = 3.050 · 10−2 · (imm) + 0.156 · (incl) + 0.404

· (24h100y) + 1.833 · 10−2 · (lc) − 0.892
· (lit) + 6.815 · 10−3 · (dens) + 8.516.10−3 · (curv)
+ 1.565 · 10−5 · (flow) − 44.978 (3.5.7)
Figure 3.5.12 illustrates the a priori classification for each cell (stab_all
column), the forecast effectuated by the statistical model (dis_2 column),
and the probability of belonging to the Stable Group associated with the
forecast. For example, in the case of cell number 51,407, the cell was
classified as Instable and, in effect, the model reclassifies it as Instable
with a 15% probability of belonging to the Stable Group. Since there
are only two Groups, the probability of the cell belonging to the Instable
Group is the complementary percentage of the probability of belonging
to the Stable Group, which would be 85%. This case will be evaluated as
a success because a priori classification and a posteriori classification
coincide.
Figure 3.5.12 Results of the Discriminant Analysis in terms of probability.
Vice-versa, for the example of cell number 51,417, the forecast effec-
tuated by the statistical model does not result in the correct reclassification
of the case itself, since it was declared as belonging to the Stable Group,
while the model placed it in the Instable Group with a probability of 80%,
which would mean a 20% probability of belonging to the Stable Group,
as indicated in the dis1_4 column.
Whether the correct classification is omitted or not, what is important
in these results is the opportunity to evaluate to what degree a case is
effectively inside a Group. In fact, an 80% probability of belonging to
the Stable Group is a strong indication that the cell in question is truly
stable, while a probability of approximately 50% indicates an uncertain
situation in the true classification of that Group. From a statistical point
of view, it means that the value distribution of the Discriminant Function
score overlap, and therefore interference of the tails, makes the correct
attribution to a Group difficult.
3.5.5 THE MECHANICAL-HYDROLOGICAL METHOD

The use of this method implies the application of modelling components
dedicated to:
a) the analysis of the mechanical and hydrological components (stability
model);
b) evaluation of the contribution of rainfall infiltration.
For a specific area, the method allows:
1. the simulation of the effects of a past rainfall for which the amount of
rain is known in terms of outlining the perimeter of the unstable areas.
2. calculate the critical rainfall thresholds responsible for the triggering
of landslides;
3. simulate the effects of a forecasted rainfall characterised by a presumed
spatial distribution of rainfall values.
Activity 1 is a preparatory phase for the other two independent phases
because it also includes the calibration of the model input parameters.
Phase 2, results in the rainfall threshold values for triggering landslides,
which can be expressed in terms of return periods, allowing the connota-
tion of the territory in terms of spatial and temporal hazard. The use of
the model in forecasting is represented by the third of the abovementioned
potential applications.
The margin of uncertainty of the results of this application are linked:
• to the uncertainty of the basic input data;
• to the limits of the modelling approach that, as such, simplifies the
natural phenomenon to be represented;
• to the uncertainty of the meteorological forecast.
The analysis of the uncertainty of the input data is not the subject
of this paper. It is rather our intention to focus attention on the other
two constraints that must be taken into consideration in order to use this
methodology successfully for the forecasting of landslides.
The component inherent to the stability model

The approach proposed is that of Montgomery and Dietrich (Mont-
gomery & Dietrich, 1994; Dietrich & Montgomery, 1998) integrated for
the effective cohesion component. The method combines a hydrological
model and a limit equilibrium slope stability model. The main assumptions
at the base of this model are:
• infinite slope;
• failure plane parallel to the slope and localized at the colluvium-
substratum boundary (weathered bedrock or Quaternary deposits);
• soil strength according to Mohr-Coulomb criterion expressed in terms
of effective stress;
Ground surface Water table

z
Failure plane
h
Figure 3.5.13 Evaluation of the hydrological contribution (Dietrich & Montgomery, 1998). h and z are the
saturated layer and the potentially mobilized mass respectively, while b is the width of the discharge cross-
section. The precipitation infiltrated, q, is equal to the precipitation, p, less the evapotranspiration, e, and the
deep-seated drainage, r.
• steady state shallow sub-surface flow;

• absence of deep-seated drainage and flow in the substratum.
In particular (Figure 3.5.13), an increase in the height h of the layer
of saturated ground corresponds to a reduction of the stress agent perpen-
dicularly to the failure surface and, consequently, of the available shear
strength. This height is referred to the total thickness of the soil layer (z)
by the relation:
h q a
= · =W (3.5.8)
z T b · sin θ
in which:
q = net infiltrated rain;
T = K · z · cos θ = hydraulic transmissivity;
K = permeability coefficient of the saturated ground;
a = contributing area (total cells with direct flow towards the cells being
studied);
b = width of the discharge cross-section;
θ = slope dip.
In the product of the second member of the relation (3.5.8), the first
factor is defined a hydrological term, while the second is defined as a
topographic term; the meaning of this distinction becomes clearer when
reference is made to the schemes illustrated in Figure 3.5.13. In order
to evaluate the net infiltrated rain (q) as strictly as possible, reference is
made to an infiltration model detailed below.
For the purpose of obtaining an equation that includes both the hydro-
logical model and the stability model, formulating the shear strength
according to the criterion of Mohr-Coulomb in the case of infinite slope
with failure surface parallel to the ground level, the safety factor F can
be expressed as (Skempton & De Lory, 1957):
c + (γ − W · γw ) · z · cos2 θ · tan φ
F= (3.5.9)
γ · z · sin θ · cos θ
c = effective cohesion;
z = thickness of the colluvium that slides above the failure plane;
γ = weight of the wet soil per volume unit;
γw = weight of water per volume unit;
φ = angle of shear strength.
In relation to the hypotheses stated and the model structure, the condi-
tion of instability for each cell of the domain is express by the following
relation:

a c γ tan θ T
≥
+ · 1 −
· · sin θ (3.5.10)
b γw · z · cos θ · tan φ
2 γw tan φ q
The condition of instability expressed in (3.5.10) is verified exclu-

sively on those cells that do not satisfy the conditions of absolute stability
and absolute instability expressed respectively in the inequalities (3.5.11)
and (3.5.12):
(absolute stability)

γw
tan θ ≤ 1 − tan φ (3.5.11)
γ
(absolute instability)
c
tan θ ≥ + tan φ (3.5.12)
γ · z · cos2 θ
The conditions of absolute stability identify those topographic ele-

ments that are classified as being stable even when the ground is
completely saturated (h/z = W = 1). It should be noted that (3.5.12), with-
out the cohesion term, is defined conservatively. The condition of absolute
instability is defined for those topographic elements that are classified as
being unstable even in the absence of rain.
By imposing equality between the first and the second terms of the
inequality (3.5.10), or rather by establishing a safety factor equal to one
and resolving the equation for q, the critical infiltration threshold that
results in limit equilibrium conditions is obtained:

c γ tan θ T ·b
qcr = + · 1 − · · sinθ (3.5.13)
γw · z · cos2 θ · tan φ γw tan φ a
The component inherent to the contribution of the rain: the

infiltration model
For the evaluation of the effective infiltrated rain, q, required by the sta-
bility model, reference was made to the Green & Ampt infiltration model
(1911). This model estimates the rate of infiltration considering a simpli-
fied profile of soil moisture that results in an analytical solution of the
equation that describes the physical process of infiltration. In the model
scheme, the infiltration front is horizontal (Figure 3.5.14) and separates
an upper saturated zone, where the water content is therefore equal to
the porosity (θ=n), from the lower non-saturated zone, where the water
content is equal to the initial one (θ = θi ).
h0
saturated
soil L
Figure 3.5.14 Green & Ampt

infiltration scheme.
The simplified hypotheses introduced do not compromise the repre-

sentativeness of the method, especially when sandy soils are considered.
Such soils are generally characterised by low retention capacity and min-
imum capillary rise; this leads to an infiltration front with characteristics
very similar to those hypothesized in the model. Given L as the distance
along the vertical z between the ground surface and the position of the
infiltration front, the infiltrated volume F(t), at time t, is given by:
F(t) = L(n − θi ) = L( θ) (3.5.14)
The infiltration rate is represented by Darcy’s law for only the saturated
zone, between the surface and the infiltration front at depth L:

h0 − h1
q = −K (3.5.15)
L
where: h0 is the water level on the surface of the ground and h1 is the
hydraulic head acting at the infiltration front, or the sum of the capillary
head, ψ, and the gravitational head, L. This equation can then be written as:

h0 − (−ψ − L)
q = −K (3.5.16)
L
Generally, h0 is negligible with respect to L, and therefore:

ψ+L
q = −K (3.5.17)
L
by substituting (3.5.14) in (3.5.17), the following is obtained:

dF ψ θ + F
=K (3.5.18)
dt F
The infiltrated volume is obtained by integrating (3.5.18) written in the

following form:

F F + ψ θ − ψ θ
Kdt = dF = dF
F + ψ θ F + ψ θ

1
= dF 1 − ψ θ (3.5.19)
F + ψ θ
therefore obtaining
[Kt]t0 = [F − ψ θln(F + ψ θ)]F0 (3.5.20)

Kt = F − ψ θ[ln(F + ψ θ) − ln(ψ θ)]

F
= F − ψ θ ln 1 + (3.5.21)
ψ θ
It can be seen that (3.5.21) is a non-linear equation in F, that can be

solved, for example, with iterative methods.
The model constructed in this way assumes that there is a thin sheet
of water on the ground surface (ponding) and that all the water that could
potentially infiltrate is effectively available. To take into consideration the
fact that for the intensity of low rains (in any case, there is no ponding for
less than the potential infiltration rate), a correction of the Green & Ampt
method must be made (Mein & Larson, 1973).
Hypothesizing that prior to the ponding, all the rainwater infiltrates
and that the ponding begins when the rainfall rate exceeds the infiltration
capacity of the soil, and considering also that the potential rate of infiltra-
tion is linked to the infiltrated volume (F) according to (3.5.18), the initial
transient can be described easily. For example, considering a constant rain-
fall rate, i, at the beginning of the event F = i·t until i = dF/dt. The instant
of the beginning of puddling, tp , is obtained by (3.5.18), substituting:

ψ · θ + i · tp ψ · θ
i=K =K 1+ (3.5.22)
i · tp i · tp
from which:
K · ψ · θ
tp = (3.5.23)
i · (i − K)
Beginning with the instant of ponding, it is possible to apply the

Green & Ampt method as described previously. For the application of
the model proposed, three parameters that characterise the hydrological
properties of the soils must be estimated.
These parameters appear in the equation used and have a strong
physical connotation: porosity, n; hydraulic conductivity, K, which corre-
sponds to the permeability of the saturated soil; and the matrix tension in
relation to infiltration, ψ, which corresponds to the rise of the saturated
capillary fringe. The availability of detailed pedologic information and
an extensive bibliography (Rawls et al., 1983) allows us to deduce the
values of these parameters without having to resort to calibration. To this
view, the greatest uncertainty regards the estimate of the value of K. The
hydrological mechanical model, in fact, demonstrates great sensitivity to
this parameter, while an evaluation at the slope scale or at a larger scale is
extremely difficult. The influence of the root system in the soil and of the
macroporosity constitute an element that is difficult to quantify, given its
high uncertainty and spatial variability. In this context, the parameter K
assumes the significance of an integral response of the soil, and, as such,
summarises the set of different characteristics of infiltration by requiring

a more precise calibration phase.
Calculation of the total critical rainfall (Pcr ) given effective critical

infiltrated rain (qcr )
Once the critical infiltration rate has been determined according to the
solution of the geotechnical problem (3.5.13), a solution must be sought
for the calculation of the total rainfall that generates it. The solution to this
inverse problem is less immediate than the solution for the direct problem
due to the non-linearity of the hydrological infiltration model. It therefore
becomes necessary to use a recursive solution process: a value of the total
rainfall is hypothesized, the problem is solved directly, and a comparison is
made to see if the infiltration calculated is equal to the desired infiltration
at less than a tolerance. If the comparison does not give positive results,
the rainfall can be corrected by increasing or decreasing it according to the
case (the link between rainfall and infiltration is monotonous; the more
rainfall, the more infiltration) and the previous procedure is repeated until
a solution is found.
Optimization of the recursive solution process as necessary in that the
calculation times were not high and the calculation converges within a
few iterations.

The results obtained from the mechanical-hydrological coupled model
present some limits that should be taken into consideration when analysing
them. In particular, the assumption of a steady-state water flow in the
slope, in equilibrium with the average flow over the previous 24 hours,
implies the need to consider long-term pluviometric events (>24 hours),
that have not been preceded by prolonged periods with a lack of rainfall.
Only in this way can the hypothesis of the model base be held plausible.
Furthermore, the transient linked to the infiltration of the rain in the slope
is substantially neglected. This phenomenon is strongly conditioned by
the rains of high intensity and brief duration, and must be treated and
described with specific modelling approaches.
Within the event scenario forecast, the results allow the definition of
hazard indices useful over the mid-long term (years or decades) and linked
to the return period that is characteristic of critical rainfall in each por-
tion of the territory. The hazard derived in this way, however, must not
be intended in absolute terms in that it is conservative. As already men-
tioned, the critical rains calculated must in fact be preceded by sufficiently
prolonged precipitation to be the true cause of triggering a landslide.
As part of the short term forecasts (hourly scale), the rain gauge obser-
vations of the ongoing meteorological events do not allow the direct
application of the model with sufficient anticipation for the evaluation
of the hazard scenario, due to the constraints caused by the assumption of

steady state flow in the model slope that, as said, requires rainfall with a
duration of more than 24 hours.
As part of the forecasts on a daily scale, the model can be used as a sup-
port instrument for warning activities, since it is capable of highlighting
the most vulnerable sectors of the slope. Furthermore, an inverse use of
the model, which is to say, the use of the simulations to determine the plu-
viometric landslide triggering thresholds, can further refine the empirical
differentiation thresholds.
3.5.5.3 Application of the method to rapid flow phenomena

(shallow landslides)
The method was experimented successfully in various geomorphological
contexts for a series of floods:
• August 1978, Val Vigezzo;
• November 1994, Upper Langhe;
• June 2002, Valle Cervo.
The experimentation demonstrated the strength of the methodology in
correctly identifying areas with different propensities to instability, which
could also be appreciated in light of the limits of application detailed in
the previous pages.
The results of the experimentation for the case of the hilly context
of the Langhe, correlated with the November 1994 flood, are illustrated
below.
The simulation was conducted on the GIS raster based platform, or by
discretizing the spatial domain studied in 10m-square cells.
The following data pertaining to the November 1994 flood were
available:
• the amounts of precipitation (meteorological precursor);
• the location of the areas destabilized due to the rains.
Given the meteorological precursor, the model was fed with four differ-
ent configurations of parameters and variables and as many instability sce-
narios were developed and compared with the reality of the landslide areas
of 1994. The comparison between the event and the forecast allows the
selection of the optimal configuration of the model input parameters (cali-
bration) and of progressing on to the work phase inherent to the evaluation
of the infiltration threshold for triggering landslides (Figure 3.5.15).
Table 3.5.5 illustrates the results of the simulation carried out with the
optimal configuration of the data. When the forecasting results of the cells
in landslide are satisfactory, excellent forecasts of stable and total cells
are also obtained. It can be seen that the method tends to overestimate the
instability (cfr. total of the cells evaluated as unstable) and this peculiarity
is due to the hypothesis of steady state flow on the slope discussed in
previous paragraphs.
Modelling
Checking Back analysis
Figure 3.5.15 Evaluation No

scheme of critical infiltration Success?
thresholds. It must be
remembered that the entire
elaborative cycle can be
repeated whenever the
analysis of the critical Yes
infiltration thresholds result in
incongruities with the
triggering values of the event Evaluation of the infiltration
deduced, for example, threshold for triggering landslides
through empirical methods.
TABLE 3.5.5 RESULTS OF MODELLING
INDICATOR VALUE
Total cells 4,707,028
Unstable cells of the 199,522
reference event
Cells declared unstable by 1,412,108
the model
Stable cell of the reference 4,507,506
event
Cells declared stable by the 3,294,920
model
Unstable cells of the reference 60.4
event correctly forecasted [%]
71.4
Stable cells of the reference
event correctly forecasted [%]
Total success of the model [%] 70.9
Unstable cells correctly forecasted 79.8

using mobile window method [%]
Since the recognition and the georeferencing of the reference land-

slides were conducted mainly by means of photointerpretation, even the
cartographic imprecision inherent in this type of survey was taken into
account in calculating the success of the simulation.
In this way, an alternative mode of evaluating the quality of the instabi-
lity scenario reproduced by the model was developed. In brief, this mode
requires that the success of the unstable cells be calculated without veri-
fying the precise spatial correspondence between landslide cell and cell
forecasted as being unstable by the model, as is usually done, but by using
the expedient of a circular mobile window with a radius of 15 metres
centred on each landslide cell, within which the presence of at least one
unstable cell calculated by the model can be verified.
With this alternative modality, the percentage of the landslide cells
forecasted correctly by the model rises to 79.7%, indicating that, for a high
percentage of cases, it correctly identifies the areas connoted by conditions
of limit equilibrium that determine the mobilization of the surface sheets
of land for amounts of rain equal to those of the 1994 flood.
One of the significant indicators for evaluating the quality of the
method is, as suggested by the authors themselves (Dietrich & Mont-
gomery, 1998), the q/T ratio, or the value of effective rainfall normalised
to transmissivity. According to the authors, the method is successful if:
1) most of the landslide main scarps of the reference event are verified
in the cells characterised by low q/T values and are coherent with the
triggering thresholds noted for the study area;
2) the main scarps of the reference event demonstrate an increased con-
centration around a given value of q/T with respect to a sample of
scarps generated randomly.
The analysis of about 19,000 landslide main scarps of the 1994 event,
distinctly identifiable by their accumulation zones, leads to the observa-
tions as illustrated in Figure 3.5.16:
1) 84% are located in areas not judged a priori by the model as being
stable and for which the q/T value is known;
2) 16% of these scarps exist in areas evaluated a priori by the model as
being stable.
The frequencies of the q/T values for the main scarps not on cells
evaluated a prior as being stable and transformed for convenience of
representation in a logarithmic form, are illustrated in Figure 3.5.17. In
Figure 3.5.18, the cumulated frequencies are illustrated. The median of
the log10 (q/T ), threshold value of 50% of the triggerings, results as being
equal to approximately −1.3. The distribution also presents approximately
60% and 70% of the instabilities with values of log10 (q/T ), respectively
less than −1.2 and −1.1.
Considering that the average thickness of the soil layer for the area
under study is about 0.7 m, given an average value of saturated permeabil-
ity of 4 · 10−5 m s−1 , the values of log10 (q/T ) are −1.3, −1.2, and −1.1,
MAIN SCARPS OF LANDSLIDES OCCURED DURING 1994 EVENT
Scarps in known q/T zones
Scarps in zones evaluated a priori

by the model as being stable
16%
84%
Figure 3.5.16 Percentages of main scarps that fall into two macro-groups evaluated by the model: cells
evaluated a priori as being stable; cells for which the value of q/T is known.
Log10 (q/T)
(ksat = 4 x 10⫺5 ms⫺1)
4000
expected
3500
Number of observations
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Figure 3.5.17 Frequency
-4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.0
histogram of log10 (q/T ) for
-4.6 -4.2 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2
landslide main scarps of the
reference event. Upper limits
amount of critical rain respectively of 124 mm/24 h, 152 mm/24 h, and

192 mm/24 h, coherent with triggering pluviometric thresholds obtained
through empirical methods (Campus et al., 2005).
As mentioned above, one of the tests for the strength of the model
consists of comparing the frequency distribution of the value log10 (q/T )
Cumulated frequency of Log10(q/T) values

110
Cumulated frequency (%)

90
70
50
30
10
-10
Figure 3.5.18 Cumulated

frequencies for the values of
log10 (q/T ) for landslide main
scarps of the reference event. Log10(q/T)
Log10(q/T)
ksat = 4 x 10 [ms⫺1] and RANDOM SCARPS
⫺5
4000
3500
Number of observations
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Figure 3.5.19 Frequency
histogram of log10 (q/T ) for a -5.0 -4.6 -4.2 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2
sample of main scarps -4.8 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -3.2 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 -0.0
generated casually. Upper limits
relative to the landslide main scarps of the reference event (Fig-

ure 3.5.17) and an equivalent sample of main scarps generated casually
(Figure 3.5.19).
From this comparison, it is evident that the landslides observed demon-
strate a higher concentration in correspondence to the central values of
ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY OF
LANDSLIDE MAIN SCARPS
90
Distance from buildings
80
Figure 3.5.20 Results of the Distance from areas not
analysis of proximity of the 70 evaluated a priori as stable
landslide main scarps located
in areas evaluated a priori by 60
Frequency (%)
the model as being stable.
50
Two cases were considered:
1) percentage of main scarps 40
for distances less than 10 m
and 20 m from the border with 30
areas for which the value of
20
q/T is known; 2) percentage
of main scarps for distances 10
less than 10 m and 20 m from
buildings, calculated on main 0
10 m 20 m
scarps that do not belong to
case 1. Distance
the distribution; this can be interpreted as a demonstration of the model’s

success.
One way to better understand this affirmation is to observe that, while
only 16% of the samples for the landslides observed were located in areas
judged a priori by the model as being stable, this figure rises to 53% for
the sample of casual scarps.
A further in-depth analysis was dedicated to 16% of the landslides
occurring in the areas judged a priori by the model to be stable.
An analysis of proximity demonstrated that 55% of these were located
at a maximum distance of 10 m from the area not judged a priori to be
stable; a further 5% resulted no further than 10 m from road infrastruc-
tures and/or buildings; if a maximum distance of 20 m is considered, the
percentage of main scarps in proximity to areas not judged stable a pri-
ori reaches 78%; a further 4% of landslides are no more than 20 m from
constructions (Figure 3.5.20).
These figures seem to indicate that a significant part of the landslides
occurring in areas judged a priori by the model as being stable can be
interpreted as cartographic imprecisions and, to a lesser extent, probably
responsible for the negative impact of anthropic works on the territory,
which the Digital Elevation Model did not take into account.
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The Uncertainty
of Forecasting and 4
Assessment Methods
4.1 Limitations and Constraints of
Forecasting
In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection that

the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and the
map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province. In time, those Uncon-
scionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the Cartographers Guilds
struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that of the Empire, and
which coincided point for point with it. The following Generations,
who were not so fond of the Study of Cartography as their Forebears
had been, saw that that vast Map was Useless, and not without some
Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it up to the Inclemencies of Sun
and Winters. In the Deserts of the West, still today, there are Tattered
Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals and Beggars; in all the Land
there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of Geography.
From Jorge Luis Borges, Collected Fictions,
Translated by Andrew Hurley Copyright Penguin 1999.
This excerpt by Borges appropriately illustrates the impossibility of rep-

resenting all the aspects of reality (the Empire) with a model (the Map). In
fact, when studying a real object from a scientific point of view, one needs
to consider a small number of aspects while putting the others aside. The
principal problems and the assumptions made concerning the relations
between them constitute the model.
The use of models for reproducing the natural world therefore derives
from the need to be equipped with instruments capable of capturing differ-
ent aspects in as complete and faithful a manner as possible. The concept
at the base of these models is likelihood: an attempt is made to recon-
struct a phenomenon, a process, or an effect that reflects reality as much
as possible through simplified approaches.
Due precisely to their simplified nature, the models, whether physical,
numerical, deterministic, empirical, or statistical, reduce the degree of
complexity of reality, allowing the desired representation to emerge more
clearly. For example, a classic simplification of this type is the study of a
falling body for which the effect of air is neglected. This does not mean that
the models are simplistic, because they may be complicated and sophisti-
cated. Therefore, the distinction between complex and complicated is one
of the deciding factors in adopting one model over another.
In the study of morpho-dynamic processes (landslides and fluvial-
torrential activity), the models are used, as already illustrated in Chapter 1,
due to the need to respond above all to the classical queries “why will it
happen?”, “how will it happen?”, “where will it happen?”, and “when will
it happen?”
394 The Uncertainty of Forecasting and Assessment Methods
Unfortunately, it is not always possible to predict where and when.

Not only is this particularly evident in the case of landslides, but also for
other natural phenomena, like earthquakes for example. The plate tec-
tonics theory led to the understanding of why earthquakes happen and, in
particular, why the epicentres are concentrated in limited areas throughout
the world, but we are still far from forecasting where and when the next
earthquake will take place. The reason why it is difficult to predict where
and when a natural phenomenon will occur is that such answers depend on
the exact knowledge of a number of parameters and boundary conditions
that instead are known only approximately. The uncertainty that derives
from these problems make such forecasts very difficult if not impossible.
The choice of a model must be based firstly on the objective to be
reached and the difficulty in obtaining all the “ingredients” required for
its proper functioning. In any case, it is also possible to make a prediction
without an understanding of the nature of the phenomenon, as in the case
of repetitive phenomena. Whichever approach is followed, the response
of a model is characterised by unavoidable uncertainties. The degree of
uncertainty that one is willing to accept depends not only on the problem,
but also on the questions formulated by decisional authorities.
In any case, for some types of natural events, it is also possible to
make a prediction without a direct or complete understanding of the
nature of the phenomenon, as in the case of floods. They present, within
a Mediterranean metro-climatic framework, common characters, occur-
ring cyclically with a certain regularity, with greater or lesser intensity
and with similar mechanisms, determining ground effects that can usu-
ally be compared. Even if the spatial variability of such events makes
their deterministic forecast impossible, it is however justifiable to base a
warning system on the knowledge of these characteristics. In function of
the recognition of analogous precursors, the warning system foresees the
effects in terms of entity and localisation, according to a mechanism that
crosses natural indicators derived from the measurement of precipitations
with the anthropic factors weighing on the territory.
The strategies implemented by hydrogeological risk prevention ser-
vices have been dealing with these problems on more than one front: that
of comprehending the geological processes, that of geological, geotech-
nics, hydrological, and hydraulic modelling, considering the hydrometer
as the principal triggering factor.
Each of the approaches brings with it different levels of uncertainty,
linked not only to the state of knowledge or the rationality of the method,
but also to the subjective impressions connected to the expected results.
Considering the question from a cause-effect perspective, a decreasing
reliability is attributed to hydraulic modelling, which is now considered
consolidated standard procedure in the forecasting of the run out of flood
waves along major rivers, to meteorological forecasting, reliable for esti-
mating events on a synoptic scale, to the assessment of hazard connected to
slope instability, sometimes punctual on the large phenomena monitored.
Limitations and Constraints of Forecasting 395
The process originates with the flood events of the end of the 1970’s
(Pinerolo-TO, Ossola-VB): the conclusions of the reports of the activ-
ities carried out by the newly-instituted regional Geological Service
highlighted the close relationship between meteorological events and
instability phenomena in a cause-effect relationship, which then served
as a foundation for forecasting procedures for warning purposes. The
statistical analysis of past events, highlighting on one hand the cycli-
cal repetition of critical situations in recurring associations with basins
(Tanaro, Sesia, Dora Baltes, Toce, Orco, Stura di Lanzo, Scrivia), and
on the other hand, the different responses of each of them to pluviomet-
ric prompts, has served to establish guidelines in the subdivision of the
Piedmontese territory into homogeneous areas from a response point of
view. The reorganisation of the pluviometric measurements of the National
Hydrographic Service, completed in 1986 with the critical revision, digi-
talization, and publication of the archive of data concerning Piedmontese
basins since 1913, facilitated the development of suitable analysis tech-
niques for defining the peculiar characteristics of precipitations on each
of them. The initial approach is rather simple: link the effects of an event
to the precipitation, it being the most synthetic parameter linked to the
event itself. This approach allows the direct connection between mea-
suring a precipitation and, consequently the numerical forecast, to the
possibility of verifying a natural hazard by preparing a rainfall threshold
system that functions with a view to warning the prevention structure.
The regional territory was subdivided into pluviometrically homoge-
neous zones (Warning Areas) for which distinct thresholds were iden-
tified, responding to the needs of conveniently spatializing the precursor
identified.
The floods of 1993 and 1994 demonstrated the usefulness and effi-
ciency of the cause-effect approach. The events were forecasted correctly
in their space-time context and the quantities evaluated were certainly
coherent with the triggering thresholds of the phenomena. However, the
detailed analysis of the individual local criticalities indicates how they
are consequent upon particular paroxysmal situations that imply a unclear
complication of the causal mechanism. The effectiveness of the forecasts
based on the cause-effect approach is inherent in the direct relationship
between the occurrence of the event and the parameter that sums up the
causes, without needing to know all the laws that govern it. In fact, it is
known that many situations escape forecasting and it is not infrequent for
there to be different responses in a zone when set thresholds are met, even
under equal conditions.
However, as has been seen in the chapter dedicated to the indicators
of pluviometric hazard, the method is satisfactory; the return periods
coherent with the recurrences documented correspond to the pluviometric
thresholds identified for the regions of Piemonte, Emilia Romagna, and
Calabria for the prediction of events associated with a scenario of moderate
and high criticality for hydrogeological and hydraulic risk. In these cases,
the ratio between false alarms and missed alarms is compatible with the
effective management of the warning system.
The Prime Minister’s Directive dated February 27th, 2004 calls for
each Centro Funzionale to establish its own criticality levels “based on
the precipitations, whether forecasted and/or instrumentally observed,
exceeding the corresponding pluviometric thresholds differentiated for
different Warning Areas according to criteria that take into account the
number of areas at high or very high risk per unit of surface area present in
each warning area and the extension of territory involved in these relative
to the extension of the Warning Areas itself.” However, it also clearly
identifies the limitation of the meteorological forecast and, in particular,
of its modelling forecast to directly represent the ground effects regardless
of any evaluation of the latter.
The first case study presented, relative to the intense precipitations on
the Torrente Scrivia basin in September 2004 indicate the limitations of the
LAM (Local Area Model) in resolving, in quantitative terms appropriate
for the scale of the warning area, a situation that was well-known on
the synoptic scale. The episode occurred at the end of the summer of
2004, characterised by a persistent humid, south-western flow upon which
repeated advections of cold air triggered a series of intense precipitations.
These situations caused a series of advisories for storm events mostly in
the northern area of Piemonte, with quantities forecasted by the Limited
Area Model at threshold limits, generally verified but with values that
were somewhat lower than those expected.
The episode of September 15th instead demonstrated how different
concauses contributed to the formulation of a quantitative precipitation
forecast, in terms of maximum values expected, much less than those
observed, without the emission of any notice. A small error in the syn-
optics of the large scale model caused the LAM to shift the area of more
intense precipitations westward. This shifting, associated with the intrin-
sic difficulty of the models in the propagation of precipitations in the
zones underlying the principal flow, caused a significant underestimation
in some warning areas and a comparable overestimation in others.
In fact, the precipitations appeared immediately more consistent and
more widespread than a series of thunderstorms involving many stations of
the Scrivia and Orba-Bormida areas and of the other Ligurian basins. Not
only were their hourly peaks much higher than the threshold of 36 hours in
many measurement stations, but the overall accumulation recorded values
approaching 200 mm.
Thanks to the seasonal context and the high drainage capacity of the
area, the impact was fortunately limited. The analysis indicated a recur-
ring underestimation of precipitation forecasts provided by the LAMs
over southern areas, and in particular, on the watershed with Liguria (in
association, the model also tends to locate the maximums on the slope
windward to the watershed), of which the episode constitutes an abnormal
confirmation, made even more disturbing by the comparison of different
Limitations and Constraints of Forecasting 397
results that may be obtained with the same model when implemented in a
different way.
The second case study, relative to the solid debris flow (mud-debris
flow) that occurred in August 2004 along the Rio Frejus and involving the
town center of Bardonecchia, instead presents a typology of processes in
which the triggering escaped current forecasting capabilities.
The pluviometric analysis of the event indicated precipitation values
with a duration of less than 1 hour and of moderate intensity, less than the
threshold values for moderate criticality defined by the Regional Warning
System for both the forecasting and monitoring phases relative to the rain
gauge station of Camini Frejus (in the vicinity of the basin head) and other
stations in the area of the Upper Dora Riparia. The data from a significant
number of measuring stations, associated with spatial representation of
the field of precipitation recorded by the meteorological radar of Bric della
Croce, allowed the precise quantification of the rainfall and confirmed its
coherence with the forecasted value.
Moreover, the hydrometric recordings along the channel of the
Dora Riparia, and in particular in correspondence to the station of
Beaulard near the basin outlet, provided yet another confirmation of this
coherence.
In the same area, an analogous torrential flow phenomenon almost con-
temporarily involved the Rio Fenils, a right tributary of the Dora Riparia
with its origins at the eastern foot of Monte Chaberton, highlighting once
again the limitations of a generalized application of pluviometric thresh-
olds as indexes to represent the hazard conditions of an entire warning area.
On the other hand, the historical and technical documents indicate that
in both cases the processes that occurred did not present extraordinary
characteristics, denoting the high recurrence of similar events in these
areas during the summer months.
In this case, the spatial representation of the field of precipita-
tion through the use of meteorological radar suggests a resizing of the
importance of the role generally attributed to the concentrated nucleus
of precipitation of particular intensity in the triggering area of the phe-
nomenon. Consequently, it is necessary to reconsider the roles played
by other factors, like the precipitation in the period prior to the event,
the geological-geomorphological conditions of the basin, the presence of
snow accumulations during the summer period, temperature variations,
sudden water supplies, the emptying of ephemeral reservoirs, etc.
It follows that, for forecasting and warning purposes, only meteoro-
logical information, and in particular pluviometric information, must be
suitably integrated. In fact, in the case of intense and brief phenomena
that cause criticality conditions in the lower mountain and hilly drainage
network, the surpassing of the corresponding pluviometric and hydro-
metric thresholds by expected or instrumentally-observed precipitation,
when predictable, is no longer sufficient to discriminate between a stable
situation or a critical situation.
In these contexts and for these phenomenologies, the meaning of warn-

ing is given exclusively in terms of areal probability that an event can
occur in an extended territory. The punctual localisation of the triggering,
which at the moment is not possible through the meteorological forecast,
can occur only thanks to Centro Funzionale activities by means of Extraor-
dinary Criticality Advisories during monitoring and surveillance phases.
Civil protection planning must be responsible for identifying situations of
ostensible hazard and potential criticality present in the basins warned.
For prevention purposes, until there are further developments in fore-
casting methods, in some basins it would be possible to integrate the
Regional Warning System with local pre-advisory based on a instrument
network capable of recording the triggering and run out of flows. Real
time monitoring of the gauge heights and the flow velocity allows the
activation of automatic warning systems (like automatic barriers or traf-
fic lights to stop traffic at bridges) even if the phenomenon has escaped
meteorological warning criteria.
It is important to repeat that these systems cannot in any way be based
on the cause-effect relation: doing so would be a serious error, which has
been made repeatedly in the past. To organise the evacuation of a camping
area located on the alluvial fan of the Upper Susa Valley based on the
measurement of the precipitation at the basin head can be as successful as
the effect obtained by playing the threshold values at a roulette table. Due
to the fact that the thresholds are cautiously maintained rather low, the
result is a high number of false alarms and, consequentially, inconvenient
evacuations. However, as in the case of the Rio Frejus, all of this is in
no way capable of guaranteeing the safety of the settlement. A disastrous
flow may occur with light rainfall the week following a futile evacuation,
when the guests have once again happily settled in.
4.2 The Case of the Scrivia River on
September 15–16, 2004
4.2.1 METEOROLOGICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT
Below is an overview of the case study of the intense thunderstorm event

that involved Piemonte on September 15th and 16th, 2004. The areas
struck hardest by heavy rains were the northern plains and, above all,
the Ligurian Apennines and the area of Alessandria (warning area corres-
ponding to the Scrivia River). It is therefore interesting to analyse all the
phases that characterised the synoptic evolution of this event, paying par-
ticular attention to the effects of the interaction of the flow with a complex
orography like the one present in our region. Zones of southern Piemonte,
like Scrivia, Belbo-Orba, and the Upper Tanaro, are highly subject to such
interactions due to the complex morphological conformation of the land
in a territory that includes mountains of varying altitudes very near the
sea and within a very limited area.
The meteorological forecast models, including Limited Area Models,
are not capable of giving a detailed representation of the ground effects
caused by such a complex situation where there are so many variables
that are often difficult to quantify. In this case, in fact, it is of fundamen-
tal importance to associate the forecasting tools with the meteorologist’s
experienced interpretation in order to obtain a quantitative forecast that is
as correct and reliable as possible. Below is a brief meteorological descrip-
tion of the event and the relative ground effects with a more complete and
detailed analysis of the behaviour of the meteorological model and, finally,
some general considerations regarding the intrinsic unpredictability of
thunderstorms.
During the days prior to the event, an intense south-western flow
involved the Tyrrhenian regions, especially all the Apennine zones, and
favoured a notable accumulation of humidity in all atmospheric levels,
causing considerably increased instability.
On September 15th and 16th, 2004, a deep trough of north Atlantic
origins stretched from Scandinavia to central-south Europe and conveyed
colder and moister air masses over Piemonte. The outbreak of colder
air associated with the low pressure from northern Europe favoured and
increased the convective phenomena over a great part of the regional
territory.
In particular, during the evening of September 15th, an upper level
low isolated a low pressure zone over the Gulf of Leone that favoured the
triggering of convective precipitations of moderate intensity with locally
strong or very strong values over the northern plains and Apennine zones.
Figure 4.2.1 Surface

pressure and geopotential
height at 500 hPa on
September 16th, 2004 at
12 UTC.
The interaction of the flow with the orography plays a fundamental role in
cases like these, when a synoptic force with a strictly advective features
develops local phenomena with convective features. These precipitations
involved the Piemonte for most of the day of September 16th, followed
by a progressive reduction of the phenomena only during the evening,
for the distancing of the minimum (Figure 4.2.1). The analysis of the
each individual radar map demonstrated that the thunderstorms were more
intense during the central hours of the night between the 15th and 16th of
September.
4.2.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE GROUND EFFECTS
The precipitations that accompanied the thunderstorms from the early

afternoon of September 15th were very intense locally with high values
during the three hours over the area of Vercelli and the Ligurian Apen-
nines, where 77.6 mm/3 h were recorded in Capanne Marcarolo (AL),
76.4 mm/3h in Fraconalto (AL), and 46.0 mm/3 h in Vercelli. During the
following day, the precipitations were more widespread and involved more
of the plains with high values still during the early hours of the day with
a reduction in the evening (Table 4.2.1).
Figure 4.2.2 illustrates, instead, the the precipitation, recorded by the
meteo-hydrological regional network, accumulated during the 24 hours in
which the event occurred, which is to say from 12 UTC on the 15th until 12
UTC on the 16th. This overview of the precipitation pattern distinguishes
the widespread storm showers, the zones more intensely involved – like
the Ligurian and Piedmontese slopes of the Apennines and the eastern
plains of the Vercelli and Novara areas, and the high peaks of precipitation
The Case of the Scrivia River on September 15–16, 2004 401
TABLE 4.2.1 12 HOURS CUMULATED RAINFALL

ON SEPTEMBER 15th–16th, 2004
DATE TIME RAIN GAUGE STATION PROVINCE RAINFALL (mm/12h)

15/09/2004 24:00 Capanne Marcarolo AL 83.6
15/09/2004 24:00 Fraconalto AL 78.6
15/09/2004 24:00 Verdelli VC 59.8
15/09/2004 24:00 Carmagnola TO 30.2
16/09/2004 12:00 Capanne Marcarolo AL 61.6
16/09/2004 12:00 Roccaforte Ligure AL 118.2
16/09/2004 12:00 Covone AL 36.2
16/09/2004 12:00 Pian Audi TO 34.6
Figure 4.2.2 Precipitations

accumulated over 24 hours
from 12 UTC on the 15th until
12 UTC on the 16th of
September, 2004 over the
entire regional network.
reached over 24 hours in Fraconalto (186.2 mm), in Capanne di Marcarolo

(145.2 mm), in Roccaforte Ligure (127.8 mm), and in Busalla (114.8 mm).
In addition to the showers and local hailstorms, strong winds,
accompanied by gusts of ordinary intensity were recorded close to the
thunderstorm: especially during the night between the 15th and 16th of
September, gusts with maximum values of 59.4 km/h in Susa and
55.8 km/h in Cabella Ligure were recorded. Strong fall winds, accompa-
nied by ample clearings, were recorded during the day of September 16th
in correspondence of the shift of the minimum eastwards, with 75.2 km/h
in Cabella Ligure (AL) and in Garessio (CN) with 64.8 km/h. The CAPPI
(Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity analyses at 5,000,
acquired by the radar of Bric della Croce (TO), made it possible to carry out
a qualitative evaluation of the areas involved in a hailstorm. In Figure 4.2.3
Figure 4.2.3 Zones struck by

hail (yellow) on September
15th, 2004.
Figure 4.2.4 Zones struck by

hail (yellow) on September
16th, 2004.
includes the summary map of the hailstorms that involved the Piedmontese
territory during Wednesday, September 15th from 00 to 24 UTC.
The data analysis show localised hailstorms, that involved the plains
between the Torino and the Asti area, the northern plain areas and the area
of Genoa windward of the Ligurian Piedmontese Apennines. Figure 4.2.4
includes the summary map of the hailstorms that involved the Piedmontese
territory during Wednesday, September 16th from 00 to 24 UTC. The data
analysis again shows localised hailstorms that involved the plains between
the Torino and the Asti area, the area of Genova windward of the Ligurian
Piedmontese Apennines, and the watershed between the Ligurian basin
and the Scrivia River.
4.2.3 ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOUR OF

METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
The fundamental moment of the elaboration of a forecast is represented

by the examination and the evaluation of the meteorological situation on
a synoptic scale (continental or planetary phenomena characterised by
dimensions greater than 1,000 km and by time scales of about a week), to
identify the prevailing configuration of the atmosphere and determine the
most probable evolution.
A synoptic structure like the one being considered in this case study,
having a spatial scale larger than the resolution of the global model used
during the forecasting analysis phase (European Centre Medium Weather
Forecast), is suitably represented in its space-time evolution. As can be
seen in Figures 4.2.5 and 4.2.8 a purely visual initial comparison of the
geopotential height analysis map and the temperature at 500 hPa with
the relative ECMWF forecast (run issued at 00 UTC on September 15th)
suggests a fairly good agreement between forecast and analysis for the 18
UTC forecast time on September 15th and 00 UTC on September 16th,
while for the 06 UTC and 12 UTC forecast time, there is an underestima-
tion of the height of the minimum depth and the drop of temperature at
high altitudes.
Figure 4.2.5 Analysis map (left) and forecast (right) of the ECMWF run on September 15th at 00 UTC, of the
geopotential height and temperature at 500 hPa relative to 18 UTC on September 15th.
Furthermore, the localisation of the minimum does not result as hav-

ing been correctly forecasted: it is, in fact, collocated further W than was
verified and, as a consequence, so was the forecasted precipitation pattern.
Finally, this model inaccuracy is also important too. Resolving the flow
interaction with a higher mountain complex like the Maritime Alps com-
pared to the Ligurian-Piedmontese Apennines causes drastically different
ground effects: the morphology of the territory, even though limited, is
different and the response of the basins involved are different.
A successive comparison of the analysis and the forecast of the synop-
tic evolution was elaborated by another global model on a European scale –
the DWD-GME (Deutcher Wetter Dinst) – developed by the German Mete-
orological Service. This model provides a further confirmation of the
discrepancies between the model and the analyses in terms of heights and
localisation of the minimum and the intensity of the drop in temperature
(Figures 4.2.9 and 4.2.10).
The description of the ground effect of the phenomena results as being,

on the other hand, complex and not easily predictable in terms of localisa-
tion, timing, and quantification of the event itself. The detailed forecast of
phenomena forced by orography and linked to convection are facilitated
Figure 4.2.9 DWD-GME run

issued on September 15th at
00 UTC: forecast at +24 h
(September 16th at 00 UTC)
of the geopotential height and
Figure 4.2.10 DWD-GME run

issued on September 15th at
00 UTC: forecast at +36 h
(September 16th at 12 UTC)
of the geopotential height and
by limited area models that have a sufficient resolution (vertical, horizon-

tal, and temporal), or at least a resolution that is comparable with the scale
of the thunderstorm phenomena.
The Warning System is based on the use of quantitative precipitation
forecasts (QPF) over warning areas defined, in terms of average and max-
imum areal values during different time periods, with a minimum interval
of six hours for the accumulation of the precipitation. In cases like those
analysed, in addition to the incorrect large-scale configuration, forces for
the triggering and intensification of the precipitation processes come into
play, like interactions of the flow with the orography, wind shear in the
lower layers of the atmosphere, and so on, that are not simulated suitably
in the area being considered. In some cases, the precipitation forecasted by
limited area numerical models is therefore affected by errors that signifi-
cantly change the warning for a critical situation by causing false alarms
and missed alarms in adjacent zones.
In the more detailed analysis of the quantitative forecasts provided by
the LAM in the case described above, it is interesting to note how, from one
single model implemented in a different way, different results are obtained
for the same study areas. More specifically, the forecasted precipitation
fields accumulated in 24 hours are reported by different LM configura-
tions relative to the 12 UTC runs on September 15th (Figures 4.2.11,
4.2.12, 4.2.13).
This example of a quantitative forecast with an average and maxi-
mum value on the warning areas makes it is easy to understand not only
how complex and useless the output of the meteorological model is, but
also that it requires continuous interpretation and elaboration of the data

the LAMI (IT) model,
developed as part of the
COSMO European
Consortium, in its Italian
version.

the aLMo (CH) model,
COSMO European
Consortium, in its Swiss
version.

the LAMI (IT) model,
COSMO European
Consortium, in its Italian
version.
provided by the models through a subjective analysis, especially in con-

sideration of the geophysical and climatic characteristics of the region
or of the zone being studied, contributing therefore a quantifiable added
value and an increase in the quality of the forecasting product.
4.3 The Mass Movement of the Rio Frejus
(Bardonecchia, NW Italian Alps) on
August 6th, 2004
4.3.1 INTRODUCTION
When evaluating uncertainties related to forecasting methods, the study of

torrential processes that characterise small mountain basins is of particular
significance. In these contexts, characterized by extreme variability of the
geological–geomorphological and meteo-pluviometric features, it is diffi-
cult, if not impossible, to successfully implement cause-effect forecasting
models.
The debris flow that involved the Rio Frejus basin in the Municipality
of Bardonecchia on August 6th, 2004 somewhat exemplifies the situa-
tion described above: as a result of the modest amount of precipitations
recorded, enough damage was produced to arouse considerable concern
among the population (Figure 4.3.1).
Following an initial phase of analysis carried out immediately after
the event and finalised with the publication of the relative report (Arpa
Piemonte, 2004b), further in-depth research became necessary in order
to characterise the promoting and triggering conditions of the torrential
processes of the Rio Frejus.
Figure 4.3.1 Photo of the

Rio Frejus (runoff towards
the left of the photograph) in
the alluvial fan in
Bardonecchia, taken from a
helicopter the day following
the mud-debris flow of August
6th, 2004. The traces of
overtopping are evident on
the hydrographic right (dark
grey deposits on the road that
runs along the channel, see
also Figure 4.3.4) in proximity
of the bridge in Via Europa
(source: Consorzio Forestale
Alta Valle Susa).
This paper presents a summary of the results of a multidisciplinary

approach that facilitated the analysis of the roles played by various fac-
tors in the evolution of the flow processes. The study was characterised
by pluviometric-hydrological and geological-geomorphological analyses
conducted by the Arpa Piemonte Regional Forecasting and Environmental
Monitoring Area, by using data and methodologies deriving from the
following projects:
• National CARG Project (Geological Cartography of Italy on a scale of
1:50,000);
• National IFFI Project (Landslide Inventory in Italy);
• European Project for natural hazard and risk assessment and preparation
of municipal Civil Protection plan (Interreg IIC Programme);
• European CatchRisk Project – Mitigation of hydrogeological risks in
the Alpine catchments (Interreg IIIB Programme – Alpine Space).
This paper concludes with a series of considerations on the gen-
eral hazard conditions of the basin and some proposals for debris flow
forecasting.
4.3.2 THE DEBRIS FLOW OF THE RIO FREJUS –

AUGUST 6TH, 2004
On Friday, August 6th, 2004, between 20:00 and 20:30 UTC, the Rio Fre-
jus, the left tributary of the Dora River of the Stretta Valley (Municipality
of Bardonecchia), was involved in a mud-debris flow that, having been
triggered mainly in the head zone of the Rio Merdovine and Rio Comba
Gautier basins, reached the inhabited area of Bardonecchia (Figure 4.3.2).
The passage of the flow in the inhabited district caused slight damage
to the road and traffic conditions and to works, arousing concern for
the population that, considering it was the high local tourist season, was
particularly numerous. The flow reached the brim of some open sections
of the artificial channel, overflowing in several points along the right bank,
especially in the fan distal sector (Figure 4.3.3).
The most serious flooding occurred near the bridges in Via Europa
and in Via Torino, with consequential deposition amounting to tens of
cubic metres of dark grey silty-sandy materials, in the area immediately
adjacent to the channel (Figure 4.3.4).
Near the bridge in Via Medail, instead, the flow threatened to overflow
the left bank in correspondence with the Le Pleiadi condominiums.
Deposits like those described above, but in smaller quantities, were
observed on the exterior of the channel along the entire alluvial fan: these
deposits were produced by spurt out linked to the turbulent nature of the
flow that, in some cases, surpassed the open surface of the flowing mass
by about 2 m (Figure 4.3.5).
The Mass Movement of the Rio Frejus 411
Figure 4.3.2 The Rio Frejus

basin.
Figure 4.3.3 Photograph

upstream of the Rio Frejus
from the Via Europa bridge
(ebbing phase of the August
6th, 2004 debris flow) in
which the traces of the
overtopping are evident
(source: Consorzio Forestale
Alta Valle Susa).
The flow also overflowed the bridge in Via Torino, interrupting traffic
for more than one hour. At the end of the event, the bridge was prac-
tically occluded by large gravelly deposits (clasts of about 10–20 cm –
Figure 4.3.6) with a loamy-sandy grey matrix and even the upstream
crossing (Via Europa) had a bearing distance somewhat reduced due to
Figure 4.3.4 Right bank of

the Rio Frejus, just upstream
of the Via Europa bridge.
Dark grey, loamy-sandy
deposits abandoned by the
mud-debris flow at the
overtopping point (source:
Consorzio Forestale Alta
Valle Susa).

downstream of the Rio Frejus
in the median stretch of the
alluvial fan during the ebbing
phase of the flood. The
turbulence of the mud-debris
flow produced the dark grey
traces from splashes of mud,
which often surpassed the
right bank and reached the
adjacent Via Einaudi (source:
Valle Susa).
the deposits present. Further localised damage was suffered along the
channel of the apex sector of the alluvial fan, represented by the removal
of some blocks of the rip-rap and the undermining of the base of the check
dam just upstream from the apex.
In general, the flood wave left evident traces in all the watercourses
involved in this event, consisting essentially of a grey loamy-sand layer
of variable thickness. This was observable in several points along the
streambed of the Dora of Bardonecchia, downstream from the town centre.
Upstream from Bardonecchia, instead, the run out of the flow produced

taken August 10th, 2004
downstream from the bridge
over the Rio Frejus in Via
Torino. The deposits from the
August 6th, 2004 debris flow
obstructed the bearing
distances under the bridge
and traces left from the
mud-debris flowing over the
structure can be observed.
Figure 4.3.7 Debris flow

activated in correspondence
of some streams of the head
of the Rio Frejus basin.
localised bank erosion and modest debris deposition of mainly gravelly

material and sometimes covered with loamy-sandy matrix, especially in
correspondence to the sediment retention basins located upstream of the
check dams; along the banks and the debris levee.
Numerous activations of debris flow were observed at the head of
the Rio Frejus basin (Figure 4.3.7). The most significant of these flows,
presumably connected to the event of August 6th, 2004, were observed
along the channels of the Rio Merdovine and the Rio Comba Gautier. In

upstream of the confluence
between the Rio Comba
Gautier (left) and the Rio
Frejus (right) where it is
possible to compare the
different characteristics of the
deposits in the two
watercourses.
particular, the observations of the deposits indicated that the contribution

of the latter provided a decisive increase to solid transport along the Rio
Frejus. The nature of the flow deposits in proximity to the junction between
the Rio Comba Gautier and Rio Frejus (Figure 4.3.8) were substantially
different in the two streams: abundant heterogeneous gravel and some
blocks of larger dimensions (rarely more than a cubic metre) were observed
in the Rio Comba Gautier, with a prevalently black, scaly matrix; the
deposits present in the Rio Frejus presented greater number of blocks
larger than a cubic metre, immersed in a grey loamy-sandy matrix.
4.3.3 RAINFALL ANALYSIS
Meteorological overview of the rainfall event of August 6th, 2004

From July 25th until August 1st, 2004, an anticyclonic ridge of African
origins affected the central-western basin of the Mediterranean, caus-
ing stable and sunny weather over Piemonte with high freezing level and
temperature values. The meteorological configuration began changing
on August 2nd. An initial cold airshed in the upper layers and the con-
tribution of humidity brought about the development of thunderstorm
phenomena that were particularly intense locally over western Piemonte.
On August 3rd, the moderately humid flow from W-SW persisted over
Piemonte and favoured the new development of thunderstorms during the
afternoon with increased areal extension and intensity compared to the
day before. A more radical change occurred the following day with the
currents that came from the southern quadrants, conveying humidity from
Figure 4.3.9 Analysis of the geopotential height at 500 hPa at 12:00 UTC on August 6th; map of the
accumulated precipitations over 12 hours, from 12:00 UTC on the 6th to 00:00 UTC on August 7th.
the sea and with an unstable cold airshed in the upper layers. During the
second part of the 4th and the morning of the 5th, thunderstorms had
essentially affected the entire region, reaching very high local peaks. On
August 5th, the low pressure nucleus shifted towards central Italy and,
during the evening, the instability had diminished over Piemonte. During
the morning of August 6th, there was a slight expansion of the African
anticyclone towards France (Figure 4.3.9) with a consequential temporary
improvement of the atmospheric conditions over Piemonte.
The atmosphere remained, however, relatively humid: both the
radiosonde observed at Milano Linate and at Cuneo Levaldigi at 12:00
UTC (those available closest to the area in question) denoted a relative
humidity of almost 75% for a layer of about 5,000 m above the earth’s sur-
face. The clearing during the day emphasised the conditions favourable
to the convection that is typical of the summer season. In the presence
of this thermodynamic situation, during the late afternoon a new cold air
flow in the upper layers caused the development of thunderstorms over the
mountain zones and foothills of the entire region. The recordings of the
Arpa Piemonte rain gauge network indicated having reached high peak
values locally on the Toce and very high in the Lanzo Valley; the values
recorded in the Susa Valley were at the most moderate.
The thunderstorm of August 6th, 2004 became part of the meteoro-
logical situation that characterised the passage from stable and anticy-
clonic weather conditions of the last week of July to unstable, cloudy
weather with frequent storm precipitations during the first half of the
month of August 2004. The factor relevant to the event was the flow of
unstable cold air at high altitudes (about 1.5◦ C to 500 hPa, an apparently
low value, but in line with those found during analogous events) that
caused the saturation and condensation of the existing humid air column
HYETOGRAPH
Bardonecchia - Camini Frejus Bardonecchia - Prerichard

mm/h mm mm/h mm
35 50 35 50
45 45
30 30
40 40
25 35 25 35
20 30 20 30
25 25
15 20 15 20
10 15 10 15
10 10
5 5
5 5
0 0 0 0
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
08
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
1/
2/
3/
4/
5/
6/
7/
Date Date
Figure 4.3.10 Hyetographs recorded by the Camini Frejus and Prerichard rain gauges for the period of
August 1st–7th, 2004.
up to 5,000 m with the development of thunderstorms. The intensity of

these storms was amplified by ongoing convection.
Wind from the northern quadrants was present at all altitudes and main-
tained mostly weak values. The identification of the wind direction was
useful for determining the trajectory of the storm cells; in particular, the
one responsible for the precipitation in the Susa Valley had originated in
France.
Rainfall analyses of the August 6th, 2004 event

The rainfall analysis was based on the elaboration of hourly and sub-hourly
rains recorded during the event and rains accumulated over several days
prior to the triggering of the phenomenon. During the event, rainfalls of
less than one hour, of moderate intensity, or discontinuous over the period
of a few days prior to the event were recorded. The pluviometric data
used were recorded by the Arpa Piemonte Automatic Regional Monitoring
Network installed in the zone: Camini Frejus (Bardonecchia) located near
the head of the Rio Frejus and Prerichard (Bardonecchia) located near the
junction of the Dora River of Stretta Valley and the Dora of Bardonecchia.
Due to the fact that the phenomenon was triggered at the head of the Rio
Frejus, near the watershed that coincides with the Italian-French border,
data recorded by the rain gauge stations of the Météo France monitoring
network were sought in order to integrate and extend the observation of
the event carried out by the Piedmontese network. The Frejus-Modane
station (1,228 m above sea level) in Savoy (situated about 6 km NW from
the head of the Rio Frejus) is the only one installed in a position pertinent
to the zone in question (Figure 4.3.11).
Figure 4.3.11 Map of rainfall intensities observed at 17:30 UTC (August 6th, 2004) by the meteorological radar of
Bric della Croce and rain gauge and hydrometric stations used for the Rio Frejus basin with outlet at the apex.
Figure 4.3.10 illustrates the hyetographs recorded by the Camini

Frejus and Prerichard stations during the period of August 1st to 7th, 2004:
the accumulated rainfall values measured at the two stations were respec-
tively 43.8 mm and 23.8 mm, of which 9.4 mm and 6.2 mm had fallen
on August 6th. In conjunction with the triggering of the phenomenon,
8.8 mm were measured at Camini Frejus (17:30–18:20 UTC) and 4.6 mm
at Prerichard (17:30–18:10 UTC), while the hourly precipitation values
measured at Frejus-Modane present a maximum equal to 1.2 mm recorded
between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC on August 6th, contributing to the daily
total of 1.4 mm. Therefore, the station was not involved in the same
rainfalls recorded by Camini Frejus and Prerichard
Table 4.3.1 illustrates the maximum depths of precipitation calcu-
lated on a mobile window for different durations (10 and 30 minutes, 1,
3, 6 hours) recorded on August 3rd and 6th, 2004; it is clear how the
greater depths of rainfall for the interval of time considered were relative
to August 3rd.
TABLE 4.3.1 MAXIMUM DEPTHS OF PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT DURATIONS

RECORDED ON AUGUST 3RD AND 6TH, 2004
RAIN GAUGE Maximum depth of precipitation [mm]
STATION August 3th, 2004 August 6th, 2004
10 min 30 min 1h 3h 6h 10 min 30 min 1h 3h 6h
Camini Frejus 5.8 10.8 14.0 20.8 20.8 3.6 7.2 8.8 9.4 9.4
Prerichard 2.8 5.0 6.2 12.4 12.4 2.2 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.2
During the forecasting phase, the Arpa Piemonte Warning System

uses thresholds defined for each of the 11 warning zones for durations
that range from 6 to 24 hours. In monitoring phases it uses threshold
values relative to all the pluviometric stations belonging to the Monitoring
Network for durations that range from 1 to 24 hours; the values differ in
function of the hydrological state or the degree of soil saturation (dry or
wet). For both cases, the thresholds refer to the levels of moderate (2) and
high (3) criticality.
Table 4.3.2 contains the values of the pluviometric thresholds
expressed in millimetres for a hydrological state that is dry for the sta-
tions of Camini Frejus and the area of the Upper Dora Riparia-Po, within
which the basin in question is located.
TABLE 4.3.2 PLUVIOMETRIC THRESHOLDS Criticality Threshhold

USED FOR MONITORING level [mm]
AND FORECASTING 1h 3h 6h
Alta Dora Riparia Threshold verified in 2 - - 47.8
Warning zones
Po the forecasting step 3 - - 65.6
Rain gauge Threshold verified in 2 14.0 23.0 31.0
Camini Frejus
station the monitoring step 3 20.0 30.0 40.0
A comparison of these with the maximum precipitation recorded indi-

cates that on August 3rd the threshold corresponding to the criticality level
2 was reached and lasted for one hour at the Camini Frejus station.
As is known, pluviometric events characterised by brief but intense
precipitation are generally extremely localised. For this reason it is
important to have a combined evaluation of the data recorded by meteo-
pluviometric networks and meteorological radar systems. Broadly speak-
ing, this approach increases the precision of the evaluation of pluviometric
events on territorial environments characterised by good radar visibility
with regards to the identification of phenomena and the estimation of
their intensity, while in mountain environments like those in question,
radar images can be used mostly for the evaluation of the spatial distribu-
tion of the fields of precipitation. During the event of August 6th, the radar
of Bric della Croce, situated in the Torino hills, identified the storm cell
that formed over the zone in question, highlighting the nucleus of greater
intensity over the head of the Rio Frejus basin and in correspondence with
the Camini Frejus rain gauge station (Figure 4.3.11).
TABLE 4.3.3 MAXIMUM RAINFALL DURATION IN THE 1913–1986 PERIOD
Rain gauge station 10 min 1h 3h 6h

mm date mm date mm date mm date
Rochemolles dam 8.0 12/06/1952 29 05/09/1942 43 05/08/1985 53 26/09/1947
Bardonecchia 8.2 14/08/1971 23 10/07/1970 35 25/09/1946 57 25/09/1946
Analysis of the pluviometric regime characteristic of the

study area
The analysis was carried out by using rainfall data recorded by the mechan-
ical station of Bardonecchia and Rochemolles Dam (Figure 4.3.11) of the
ex-Ufficio Idrografico del Po, capable of providing a sufficient historical
series of data ranging from 1913 to 1986. A comparison was made between
the data observed during the period being studied and the maximum val-
ues recorded by historical stations (Table 4.3.3). Later, by resorting to
methods of statistical regionalization of the hydrological extremes, the
return period characteristics of the precipitations being studied were cal-
culated. The historical series used in this study constituted a significant
sample for durations that range from 1 to 6 hours (about 40 values), while
for the duration of 10 minutes, not enough data was available for statistical
elaborations.
Comparing the data of maximum rainfall depths for the different dur-
ation with historical data, it can be noted that for the duration of 10 minutes,
the maximum value (5.8 mm) of the Camini Frejus rain gauge recorded
for August 3rd is the third highest following the 8 mm recording on June
1952 and 7 mm in July 1964, while for the longer durations the values
were surpassed several times over recent years.
The maximum depths of precipitation recorded on August 6th for the
durations considered were always less than the historical data. Different
methods were then used to calculate the value of the return periods (the
average number of years in which precipitation of a certain duration and
intensity is reached or exceeded at least once) for the maximum precipi-
tations recorded between August 1st and 7th, 2004 for durations of 1, 3, 6
hours. In this case it was not possible to evaluate the return period of the
precipitation relative to the extremely brief duration of 10 minutes in that
there were not sufficiently long historical series available. The calcula-
tion was carried out with the VAPI (De Michele & Rosso, 1999), Atlante
delle Piogge Intense (CIMA, 2001), and RAP Rainfall Analysis Package
(Burlando et al., 1997) methods and with the Gumbel and Lognormale
probability distributions, using invariation of scale (IS) and regularized
quantiles (QR). The detail of the value of the return periods for the Camini
Frejus station is found in Table 4.3.4.
For rains recorded by both stations on August 6th, the return periods
calculated were always less than two years for all the aggregations; the
same results were obtained for the rains recorded on August 3rd by the
TABLE 4.3.4 RETURN PERIOD CALCULATED WITH DIFFERENT METHODS FOR CAMINI
FREJUS RAIN GAUGE STATION (AUGUST 3RD AND 6TH 2004 RAINFALL)
Return Period [years]

Statistical method August 3rd, 2004 August 6th, 2004
1h 3h 6h 1h 3h 6h
Gumbel distribution (QR) 3 2 <2 <2 <2 <2
Lognormal distribution (QR) <2 <2 <2 <2 <2 <2
Gumbel distribution (IS) 2 2 <2 <2 <2 <2
Lognormal distribution (IS) 3 2 <2 <2 <2 <2
VAPI (De Michele & Rosso, 1999) 3 2 <2 <2 <2 <2
Atlas of Intense Rainfall (CIMA, 2001) 5 4 2 <2 <2 <2
RAP – Rainfall Analysis Package
8 3 <2 <2 <2 <2
(Burlando et al., 1997)
Prerichard station, while for the return periods for Camini Frejus were
slightly higher than 2 years for the aggregation of 1 hour. In particular,
VAPI,Atlante delle Piogge Intense, and RAP provide higher return periods
of 3, 5, and 8 years respectively for rainfalls one hour long. The cause of
this can be sought in the probabilistic distribution model that is the basis of
the model adopted, in the number of stations used, and in their distribution
over the territory. The VAPI project boasts a database relative to a total of
366 stations (270 in the River Po basin and 96 in Liguria), with at least
20 years of observation and an average sample number of 34. The Atlante
contains the data recorded from all the stations in Piemonte as well as those
in the Ticino Canton and the French stations N of the Pelvoux Massif for
a total of 537; these stations cover an extensive area with a density of
approximately 10−2 per km2 . The results provided by the comparison of
the precipitation data observed and the historical maximums are in any
case coherent with the return periods obtained by means of statistical
inference.
The integration of the data acquired in the rain gauges of the regional
Piedmontese network with those of the Météo France radar data network
confirm that the meteorological event that occurred during the debris flow
along the Rio Frejus on August 6th, 2004 was characterised by a storm cell
of minor dimensions and irrelevant intensity, which generated downpours
over the watershed.
Instead, the statistical analysis through regionalization attributes a
preparatory role to the precipitations that occurred during the days prior
to the triggering. In fact, the return periods obtained were between 3 and
8 years, demonstrating the criticality of the precipitations recorded on
August 3rd for the duration of 1 hour, while the precipitations on August
6th, or when the ground effects were verified, had return periods of less
than 2 years, and therefore a higher recurrence rate.
Historical pluviometric analysis related to phenomena that

involved the area in the past
Information relative to the process and the damage caused by the Rio
Frejus in theTown of Bardonecchia were extracted from theArpa Piemonte
SIGeo (Geological Information System). The documentation of events
that involved the basin in question since 1934 is available in this archive.
The data of daily rainfall kept in the archive of data recorded by the
Mechanical Gauges Network station of the ex-Ufficio Idrografico del
Po were then considered. This data was pertinent to the days in which
the events indicated in the SIGeo occurred. In particular, the Bardonec-
chia gauge (at 1,275 m above sea level, located near the town centre)
and the Rochemolles Dam (at 1,926 m above sea level, in the area sur-
rounding the Rochemolles Torrent basin) are in the area under study. For
events prior to 1990, data is available from the Arpa Piemonte Auto-
matic Regional Meteo-Hydrological Monitoring Network (Camini Frejus
rain gauge, 1,740 m above sea level, and Prerichard, 1,353 m above sea
level). Table 4.3.5 contains a summary of the events documented for
which it was possible to associate the quantities of rainfall measured
on the day of the instability and during the previous days. This table
does not include the events that occurred immediately following World
War II (June 12th, 1947; September 4th–5th, 1948; May 2nd, 1949) for
which no rainfall data is available from the network of the ex-Ufficio
Idrografico, the events for which the SIGeo does not know the trigger-
ing day (10/1977), and obviously all the events for which there is not
sufficient documentation to carry out a correctly referenced pluviometric
analysis.
In spite of the inevitable incompleteness and uncertainty of the avail-
able documentation concerning the instabilities, it can be observed that
the zone, and in particular the town centre of Bardonecchia, was involved
in frequent torrential processes along the channel of the Rio Frejus over a
period of seventy years, confirming the susceptibility of the basin to this
type of phenomena. The scarce accuracy of the date and time indications
of when the phenomenon occurred influences the calculation of the cor-
related depths of rain. The gauges of the Automatic Network acquire the
rainfall every ten minutes, and therefore allow the accurate definition of
the values of rain prior to the triggering of a phenomenon, obviously as
long as the time of the triggering is known.
The accumulated daily rainfall recorded by the ex-Ufficio Idrografico
Network is, instead, calculated from 9:00 AM of the day before until
9:00 AM of the day in which it is attributed; due to the fact that the trigger-
ing times of past phenomena are not known, it is sometimes problematic
to define the exact values of the rains that preceded them. Therefore, con-
sidering the cases in which the information can be considered reliable,
the quantity of rain recorded during the past events by the Bardonecchia
rain gauge are of the same dimensions as those measured relatively on
TABLE 4.3.5 PLUVIOMETRIC ANALYIS OF HISTORICAL EVENTS
Rio Frejus processes and damages in the

Municipality of Bardonecchia Rain gauge Rainfall [mm]
station
Date Impacts Damages 1d 7 d 15 d 30 d
Crossing works damaged
03/08/1934 Bank erosion Hydraulic structure destroyed Bardonecchia 16.0 37.8 53.6 56.7
Road section damaged
Crossing works damaged
Hydraulic structure damaged
Bank erosion
Cultivation destroyed
26–28/05/1951 Bed erosion Bardonecchia 50.0 51.0 80.0 125.2
Road section destroyed
Flooding
Crossing works and buildings
threatened
Sediment transport Buildings damaged
21/06/1954 Flooding Hydraulic structure damaged Bardonecchia 11.0 18.4 39.4 52.8
Erosion Crossing works destroyed
21/08/1954 Alluviation Buildings threatened Bardonecchia 23.0 65.0 89.0 89.6
Bank erosion
Buildings threatened
07–09/06/1955 Flooding Bardonecchia 52.6 92.8 100.8 139.8
Road section destroyed
Alluviation
18–19/10/1966 - Buildings threatened Bardonecchia 9.2 54.0 100.2 119.0
Bank erosion
Buildings threatened
Sediment transport
02–04/11/1968 Hydraulic structure damaged Bardonecchia 19.4 50.0 56.0 86.4
Flooding
Cultivation threatened
Alluviation
Sediment transport
07/08/1997 Crossing works threatened Camini Frejus 12.2 43.2 44.0 72.8
Partial blockage
21/06/2002 Sediment transport - Camini Frejus 0.0 3.6 17.4 148.6

Sediment transport
06/08/2004 Crossing works threatened Camini Frejus 9.4 43.6 43.6 67.2
Channel blockage
August 6th, 2004, especially during the event characterised by solid trans-
port (June 21st, 1954; November 2nd–4th, 1968; August 7th, 1997). It
must also be remembered that the Bardonecchia station is not located in
a suitable position for the analysis of pluviometric events that involve the
Rio Frejus basin, while the Camini Frejus station is.
The historical series of pluviometric data of the Bardonecchia sta-
tion during the periods between 1914 and 1941 and between 1951 and
1986, were used to calculate the average annual number of rainy days,
which resulted as being 86, and the Annual Average Rainfall (PMA-
Pioggia Media Annua), which resulted as being 744 mm. By distribut-
ing the PMA onto the average annual number of rainy days, the result
indicates 8.7 mm of rainfall per day: the daily accumulated rainfall
attributed to the events described in the table are more than this value
TABLE 4.3.6 MAXIMUM DEPTHS OF PRECIPITATION FOR DIFFERENT DURATIONS

RECORDED ON AUGUST 6TH AND 7TH, 2004
Rain gauge Maximum depth of precipitation [mm]

station
August 6th, 1997 August 7th, 1997
10 min 30 min 1h 3h 6h 10 min 30 min 1h 3h 6h
Camini Frejus 5.2 13.2 16.8 17.2 17.2 5.0 6.4 6.4 7.2 9.2
and generally do not differ greatly, but they have the same order of
dimension; this further confirms the extraordinary nature of the pluvio-
metric events that caused the triggering of torrential processes even in
the past.
The accumulated daily rainfall measured at Camini Frejus on August
6th, 2004 is higher than the average. The historical cases found in
Table 4.3.5 offer only data accumulated daily that, as already specified,
refers to the precipitation fallen from 9:00 on the day before, therefore
totals measured by the mechanical stations are not homogeneous with
those of the automatic stations.
The comparison of the event of August 7th, 1997 with the one in
question is particularly significant, considering the temporal proximity,
the manifestation of analogous effects (solid transport, bed obstruction),
the coincidence of the triggering period in reference to the calendar year,
and the availability of the same reference network for the recording of
the pluviometric data. The values recorded at Camini Frejus for both
events demonstrate scrap inferior to 0.1% for the accumulations of the
7 and 15 days prior to the triggerings, therefore the pluviometric events
associated with the two debris flows are fully comparable. An analysis
was carried out on the sub-daily rainfall during the days prior to the
triggering of August 7th, 1997, which occurred in correspondence with
the centre of Bardonecchia around 14:45 UTC. Table 4.3.6 illustrates
the maximum values associated with the event recorded by the Camini
Frejus station, in order to underline that, analogously to the event of
August 6th, 2004, the precipitations of the day of the triggering present
values less than those recorded in the days immediately prior to the event;
even in this case the value of the maximum depths of hourly rainfall
measured over the days before the day of triggering proved to be critical
(16.8 mm/1 h on August 6th, 1997, a value higher than the threshold of
14 mm/1 h – Table 4.3.2).
More recent still is the phenomenon that occurred on June 21st, 2002,
for which the values of the rainfall indicated were decidedly less than those
appreciated in other cases, and above all it can be noted that on the day
of triggering, precipitations were not measured by the reference station.
Furthermore, in order to find significant depths of rain, it is necessary to
consider the value relative to the previous 30 days.
4.3.4 GEOLOGICAL-GEOMORPHOLOGICAL
OVERVIEW AND CHARACTERISATION OF THE
TRIGGER ZONES
In order to analyse the various components that characterise the torrential

processes, a multi-criteria approach based on classical methods of geo-
morphological hazard assessment was adopted (Varnes & IAEG, 1984).
This method integrates information from land surveys, archives (Arpa
Piemonte Geological Information System), and from GIS elaborations
(based on a Digital Elevation Model) for the main purpose of gaining a
better understanding of the triggering of debris flow phenomena.
The pertinent geological and geomorphological characters of the Rio
Frejus basin are presented first, followed by the detailed analyses that
allowed the identification and characterisation of the main triggering areas
of debris flow phenomena.
The Rio Frejus basin, stretching in a N-S direction and with a sur-
face area of about 22 km2 , is articulated in various sub-basins, of which
the main ones are those of the Rio Merdovine, the Rio Comba del
Frejus, the Rio Comba Gaudet, and the Rio Gautier (Figure 4.3.12).
Figure 4.3.12
Three-dimensional
elaboration of the Rio Frejus
basin.
On the E, the Frejus basin borders with the basin of the Rochemolles
Torrent, while to the W it orders with the Rho Torrent basin, and to
the N with some French sub-basins of the Arc Torrent. The main water-
shed, which also marks the Italian-French border, is where the highest
peaks are located: the Cima del Vallone (3,171 m asl), the Punta Bagnà
(3,129 m asl), the Punta Nera (3,041 m asl) and the Punta del Frejus
(2,936 m asl).
Landforms of the Frejus basin evolve in response to a combina-
tion of different natural processes. In particular, the deposits and the
forms connected to the glacial modelling are somewhat scarce and almost
completely remodelled and obliterated by the action of waterways and
gravitational phenomena. These two processes are in turn interconnected
in that the general tendency of waterways to deepen is one of the main
causes of extended slope instability. The importance of modelling by
channelled waters is particularly evident in the crest sector, where it
is possible to observe the overall widening of the Rio Frejus basin at
the cost of the adjacent basins and the stretch upstream of Bardonec-
chia, where the Rio Frejus deepens into a narrow gorge with vertical
rock walls up to 200 m tall. At the end of the gorge and immedi-
ately upstream of the confluence with the Dora di Valle Stretta, there
is the extensive alluvial fan (coalescent with that of the Rho Torrent)
over which Bardonecchia rises: in this stretch, the active channel of
the Rio Frejus is slightly incised and completely regimented by defence
works.
The lithotypes that characterise the pre-Quaternary substratum of the
Rio Frejus basin (Figure 4.3.13) belong mainly to the Tectonostratigraphic
Unit of the Lago Nero (Polino et al., 2002), constituted in this area by
calceschists that are carbonate and locally rich in phylladic alternations.
The outcroppings of thick-bedded serpentinite and ophicalcite (abandoned
quarry of the Rio Comba del Frejus) and quarzites (in proximity to the
Punta del Frejus) are decidedly subordinate. The main structural elements
of the substratum highlighted by the Geological Map of Italy on a scale
of 1:50,000 (Servizio Geologico d’Italia, 2002), are represented by weak
dip tectonic contacts (overthrust plains) and subvertical faults. The latter
have a NW-SE direction and are particularly evident in the Rochemolles
valley, while along the left slope of the Frejus basin their continuity is
presumed; faults with the same direction but of lesser extensions are
also indicated in the high sectors of the Rio Gautier and Rio Comba
Gaudet basins. The rock masses present poor geomechanical character-
istics, due to the intense fragile deformation that produce a series of
discontinuities present on all scales. In particular, the phylladic alter-
nations are extremely degraded with rock masses that can be classified
as very fractured and disjointed. Wherever the combination of structural
setting and slope attitude defines instability-prone conditions, the rock
mass becomes more and more disjointed, eventually becoming a loose
debris.
Figure 4.3.13 Excerpt from the Geological Map of Italy, Sheet n. 153 Bardonecchia, scale 1:50,000
(Servizio Geologico d’Italia, 2002).
There is also a strong convergence between the forms and structures

caused by the gravitational tectonics and the fragile geodynamic mani-
festations. This is particularly evident along the left slope of the Frejus
Valley, where extensive deep-seated gravitational deformations (DSGD)
demonstrate a close geometric connection with the main recent deform-
ation systems of the substratum, developing above all in correspondence
to the principle shear zones (Polino et al., 2002).
As previously mentioned, detailed analyses were carried out especially
on the trigger zones of the debris flow that occurred on August 6th, 2004
and the basin heads; the characteristics of the Rio Frejus channel were also
carefully evaluated in order to quantify the volume of debris present in the
bed (capable of feeding the solid transport) and the effectiveness and effi-
ciency of the defence works. The geomorphological analysis of the alluvial
fan and the relative hazard assessment were carried out in reference to the
results of the Interreg IIC, Territorial collection and organisation Project;
hazard and risk assessment of natural phenomena and development of
municipal Civil Protection Plans (Regione Piemonte, 2001), the products
Figure 4.3.14 Excerpt from the Synthetic Geomorphological Map of the Rio Frejus Basin.
of which were realigned according to regional standards in the successive

CatchRisk Project (AA.VV., 2005a; 2005b).
The results of this in-depth study contributed to the drafting of the Geo-
morphological Synthesis Map and were integrated with GIS elaborations
for the purpose of detecting the trigger areas. This map (Figure 4.3.14)
contains useful information for the defining of the hazard conditions in
the basin and was realised according to the information already present
in the Arpa Piemonte SIGeo and new data relative to the post-event sur-
veys conducted. The main elements reported in the abovementioned map,
subdivided into homogeneous groups, are the following:
• Deposits and forms connected to gravitational phenomena. This infor-
mation derives from the updating of the national IFFI Project (Inven-
tario dei Fenomeni Franosi in Italia; Arpa Piemonte, 2004a), in which
the typologies of movement and the state of activity of gravitational
phenomena and some significant morphological elements are identi-
fied (escarpments, trenches, etc.). The analysis of these data indicates
that 58% of the territory of the Rio Frejus basin consists of landslides,
of which 35% have active phenomena. The surveys pointed out that the
areas that give rise to the flows are located mostly in correspondence to
the slope sectors involved in extensive gravitational phenomena, where

ongoing movements involved in chaotic heterometric deposits with a
prevalent gravelly-sandy component can be observed;
• Probable localisation of avalanches. The areas in which the snowy
masses are channelled during avalanches are represented, deriving from
the cartography developed by Arpa Piemonte for the municipal territory
of Bardonecchia. The inclusion of this information was decided due to
the relevance of the snowy masses present in the channels until late
summer, which can also impact the evolution of debris flow;
• Unstable debris areas in proximity to the torrential channels. There
are also indications of the main debris sources during the August 2004
event and unstable sectors capable of feeding future flow phenomena;
• Deposits and forms related to the rilling of waters. Concentrated rill
areas are represented along the slopes, and secondary incisions, as are
those where minor debris flows took place in August 2004;
• Estimate of the volumes of debris present in the bed. The estimate of
the debris present in the bed and that could potentially be mobilized
during a flood was carried out according to the criterion defined in
the CatchRisk Project (for the description of the method please see
§ 2.5.2). This volume of debris, quantified in sections that represented
various stretches of the bed, considering a single longitudinal stretch,
expresses the unitary magnitude, classified briefly in the following
classes: <5 m3 , 5–10 m3 , 10–25 m3 , >25 m3 . The analysis of the vari-
ation of this parameter along the torrential channel allows the immediate
visualisation of the preferential zones of debris accumulation and to
estimate the total volume that may potentially be remobilized.
Description of source areas

In all the Rio Frejus basin, extensive debris cover from which flow phe-
nomena could originate were observed. In particular, the crest sectors
between the Rio Merdovine basin and the Rio Gautier basin present large,
mixed debris accumulations at the base of rocky walls that present a
high degree of fracturing and alteration. These accumulations are deeply
incised by numerous waterways and represent important sources of easily
erodable material (Figure 4.3.15).
Along less steep slopes there are modest quantities of eluvial-colluvial
debris (usually <2 m) where extensive gravitational and erosive phenom-
ena can be observed (rill flow). The gravitational phenomena include
flow, slide and slump mechanisms: in the latter, the sliding surface is
found mostly in correspondence to the cover/substratum contact.
Even inside the channel there are large quantities of loose heterometric
debris from slopes. Sometimes these materials are already in the channel
due to the fact that the waterway incises debris accumulation. In the main
bed of the Rio Frejus, high unitary volumes of remobilized material were
found (classes from 10–25 m3 to >25 m3 per linear metre) beginning
Figure 4.3.15 Watershed

sector of the Rio Merdovine
basin. The debris
accumulations at the base of
the phylladic calcschist slope
where deep torrential
incisions can be seen.
Figure 4.3.16 Upstream of

the Bardonecchia alluvial fan,
the Rio Frejus crosses a
deep gorge in rock with
vertical slopes sometimes
higher than 50–70 m. This
stretch, about 1.5 km long,
presents an average slope of
less than 6◦ and in some
points the width of the cross
section is less than 2 m. This
morphology generates a sort
of natural funnel with a “filter
effect’’ that conditions the
evolution of the torrential
processes (potential
formation of temporary
obstructions and sudden
release of large volumes of
water and debris).
with the main tributaries until the Frejus rock gorge start (Figure 4.3.16).
The total average volumes obtained with the CatchRisk method along
the channels of the Rio Merdovine and Rio Gautier are 80 · 103 m3 and
48 · 103 m3 respectively.
Particular attention was paid to the characterisation of these two basins
that were heavily involved in the August 2004 event, as described in detail
below.
LONGITUDINAL PROFILE OF RIO GAUTIER

2440
2340
2240 Point 0
Altitude (m asl)
2140 Point 1
2040 Point 2
1940 Point 3
Figure 4.3.17 Longitudinal
profile of the main channel of 1840
the Rio Gautier. The points
from 0 to 3 evidence the main 1740 Point 4
source areas of the August
2004 event. Point 4 indicates 1640
the junction with the Rio 0 500 1000 1500 2000
Frejus. Distance (m)
Rio Gautier (for the location of the descriptive points, see Fig-
ure 4.3.17).
• Point 0. Stretch with slope higher than 35◦ in which conspicuous snow
masses mostly covered with debris were found during surveys con-
ducted at the end of August 2004 (Figure 4.3.18). The quantity of
debris observed on top of the snow residue represents an index of sea-
sonal reloading of debris in the bed. The sudden breaking and melting of
snow bridges could cause sudden releases of water and debris capable
of triggering flow phenomena.
• Point 1. Stretch of bed with a slope of approximately 22◦ –25◦ and where
a high quantity of loose debris material is present (>25 m3 per linear
metre). The right bank presents very high to sub-vertical slopes and
is incised in slightly loose, chaotic, and heterometric talus. The talus
presents overall evidence of instability (escarpments and bulges) and
some thalwegs generated by concentrated rill.
• Point 2. A stretch characterised by the presence of an extensive complex
and active landslide on the left slope. In this stretch, the banks are
8–10 m high and are made up of heterometric debris (with a mostly
sandy-gravelly matrix) that is loose or weakly cemented. The unstable
conditions of the banks and the high quantity of material (in the bed and
on the banks) play a substantial role in the formation and/or feeding of
debris flows (Figure 4.3.19).
• Point 3. Stretch incised at the foot of the extensive gravitational phe-
nomenon described in point 2, characterised by a strong slope (>30◦ )
and accentuated erosion of the debris bank. The analysis of the map
of the drainage area drawn according to the Tarboton method (1997,
2002) indicates that in this stretch there are preferential water flow and
stagnation zones that indicate the tendency of the shallow deposits to
be saturated (Figure 4.3.20).
Figure 4.3.18 Snow bridges

covered by debris material
observed at approximately
2,250 m of altitude in the
streambed of the Rio Gautier
at the end of August 2004.
• Point 4. Confluence with the Rio Frejus characterised by the prevalence

of depositional processes due to the sudden reduction in the slope.
The traces of the maximum heights reached by the August 2004 flow,
measured in the main channel immediately following the event, reach
4–5 m from the bed bottom in this sector; the deposits that constitute
the lateral lobes, outside of the main channel, have a thickness of a little
more than one metre (Figure 4.3.8).
Rio Merdovine (for the location of the points described, see Fig-
ure 4.3.21)
• Point 0. Break in the slope where the bed becomes very steep (>30◦ ) and
incised in diamicton with a low to nil density degree (Figure 4.3.22);
it was estimated that more than 25 m3 per linear metre of deposits that
could be immediately remobilized were present in the bed. Downstream

downstream of the main
channel of the Rio Gautier
at approximately 1,940 m.
The geometric and
sedimentological
characteristics of the banks
can be seen, with recent
erosions (foreground on both
banks).
Figure 4.3.20 Excerpt from the map of the drainage area relative to the stretch of the left slope of the Rio
Gautier involved in an large gravitational phenomenon. The map derives from a GIS elaboration in which the
area of study is subdivided into 10 m-square cells, each of which is assigned a value corresponding to the
number of cells in which the runoff converges on the cell considered (Tarboton, 1997; 2002). An intense and
concentrated surface run off corresponds to a high number of cells (area considered high to very high). In correspon-
dence to the slope instability there is an intense surface run off that, in function of the characteristics and
condition of stability of the material present, plays an important role in preparing the triggering of the debris flows.
LONGITUDINAL PROFILE OF RIO MERDOVINE

2540
2440
Altitude (m asl)
Point 0
2340
Point 1
2240
2140 Point 2
2040 Point 3
Figure 4.3.21 Longitudinal 1940
profile of the main channel of 1840
the Rio Merdovine. The
points 0 to 3 indicate 1740
the main source areas of 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
the August 2004 event. Distance (m)

taken August 18th, 2004
showing the main channel of
the Rio Merdovine at an
altitude of approximately
2,430 m. Traces of the transit
of the August 6th mud-debris
flow (erosions and deposits)
and the sector with the higher
slope from which it originated
can be seen. The left bank,
6–10 m high in this stretch, is
made up of landslide deposits
in precarious equilibrium.
from this break in the slope, the bed presents sharp differences between
the two banks: the left bank delimits a particularly evoluted sector of an
extensive DSGD, and consists mostly of precariously balanced land-
slide deposits (Figure 4.3.23); the right bank consists of outcroppings of
calceschists that are more or less carbonate and alternated with modest
detrital-colluvial deposits.
• Point 1. Stretch with an approximately 20◦ –25◦ dip incised at the foot
of an active rotational sliding (left bank) in which numerous escarp-
ments fissures, trenches, and water outlets are observable. The overall
unstable volume, directly pertaining to the waterway, amounts to more
than 60,000 m3 (Figure 4.3.24).
Figure 4.3.23 Southern slope

of the Roccia Verde mountain
(in the background) where
morphologies (red lines)
typical of the Deep-Seated
Gravitational Deformation
can be seen.
• Point 2. Stretch of 500–600 m in length, characterised by the presence

on the hydrographic left of numerous complex gravitational phenomena
with origins related to the extensive DSGD that involves the left slope
of the Rio Frejus basin (Figures 4.3.23 and 4.3.24). This bank, which
is a few tens of metres high, consists of blocks and pebbles immersed
in abundant sandy-silty matrix deriving from the alteration and dis-
integration of phylladic limeschists. Sometimes rocky portions of a
few hundred cubic metres are observable. The analysis of the drainage
area map (Figure 4.3.25) highlights how the area in gravitational
deformation is susceptible to an intense and widespread surface flow.
• Point 3. Stretch with moderate dip (10◦ –12◦ ) and with a moderately
wider cross section in the upstream stretch. In this sector, the aerial
photographs of July 2001 indicate conspicuous snow masses partly
masked by the overlying debris presumably caused by the avalanche
accumulations from the Rio Graviere basin.
4.3.5 HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS
In order to complete the analysis of the August 6th, 2004 event, two
different hydrological approaches were applied to evaluate the discharges.
Figure 4.3.24 Excerpt of the geomorphological map superimposed onto the aerial photograph of the Region
of Piemonte Flight made after 2000 Flood.
The first approach is based on the quantities of rainfall observed and

leads to the calculation of the liquid discharge, while the second approach
provides, from an a posteriori analysis, a peak discharge based on the
typology of the process and traces of the flow. In the second case, through
the application of empirical formulas, it is possible to distinguish between
the solid and liquid components. The latter is then compared with the
discharge calculated with the first approach.
Calculation of liquid discharges based on precipitations

The estimate of the discharges at the peak was conducted through two
different procedures: an analytical methodology and a distributed hydro-
logical modelling. The sections corresponding to the junctions of the
main tributaries of the Rio Frejus and the relative contributing sub-basins
Figure 4.3.25 Extract of the slope map (left) and the drainage area (right, for the description of the method –
Figure 4.3.20) referred to the area in Figure 4.3.24. “A’’ and “B’’ are examples of zones where erosion caused the
recession of the escarpments is correlated to the triggering of gravitational slides with particularly intense
surface run off. This image highlights the role play by the surface drainage channel, even if only slightly
developed, in the modelling of the slopes and the activation of gravitational phenomena.
Figure 4.3.26 Localization of

basins and relative outlet
sections.
TABLE 4.3.7 FEATURES OF THE BASINS
Basin Area Channel length Mean altitude Concentration time

[km2] [km] [m asl] [h]
R. Comba Frejus 2.82 2.20 2’414 0.5
R. Merdovine 6.38 3.39 2’475 0.7
R. Gautier 1.87 2.12 2’287 0.4
R. Bonne Combe 3.25 2.50 2’150 0.6
R. Frejus 22.00 7.80 2’180 1.3
were identified. Some of the pertinent morphometric information and the

concentration time can be found in Table 4.3.7.
The analytical approach consists of the use of the rational formula,
often used for small basins, that allows the evaluation of the flood
discharge Qmax m3 /s by means of the following equation:
C · imax · A
Qmax = (4.3.1)
3.6
in which C is the flow coefficient that takes into account the reduction
of the meteoric flow due to the effect of the characteristics of soil per-
meability in the basin, imax [mm/h] is the value of precipitation equal to
the maximum intensity recorded on August 6th, 2004, of a duration equal
to the concentration time of the basin, which is obtained by applying the
Giandotti formula (1934), and A [km2 ] is the surface area of the basin. The
value of the flow coefficient for all the basins was hypothesized as being
equal to 1, considering a completely saturated soil that would result in all
of the precipitation contributing to the surface runoff, thereby generating
the maximum liquid discharge.
The second approach, the FEST hydrological model (Mancini, 1990),
used for the calculation of the discharges in correspondence to the sections
considered, is a distributed model for individual events, based on the
method of the CN (curve number) of the United Soil Conservation Service
(Bingner & Theurer, 2001) for the calculation of surface runoff and the
Muskingum Cunge method (Cunge, 1969; Ponce & Chaganti, 1994) for
its propagation.
The CN parameter, estimated by defining the hydrological character-
istics of the soil and the plant cover, assumes values between 0 and 100
and represents the capacity of the basin being studied to produce out-
flow. The available data have a resolution of 100 m for that which regards
the CN parameter and 10 m for the morphological features of the land.
The method takes into account the conditions of soil moisture prior to the
event that, in the simulation at hand, were hypothesized to be an AMC
class equal to 3, corresponding to very wet land.
The values of precipitation used as input for the model regard the sixth
day of August and derive from the direct measurements recorded by rain
TABLE 4.3.8 VALUES OF PEAK DISCHARGE
Rational method (C=1) FEST method
Basin Rainfall intensity Discharge Radar map Rain gauge data

[mm/h] [m3/s] discharge [m3/s] discharge [m3/s]
R. Comba Frejus 14.1 11 3 4
R. Merdovine 10.0 18 4 6
R. Gautier 14.0 7 2 3
R. Bonne Combe 11.4 10 2 3
R. Frejus 6.5 40 17 21
gauge stations (Camini Frejus and Prerichard) and from rain maps pro-
vided by the meteorological radar of Bric della Croce. The latter provide
a spatially distributed pluviometric force, and are therefore capable of
describing the effective volume of rainfall for the area considered (Cre-
monini et al., 2003), while the local measurements require the application
of methods for the calculation of the influence surfaces of the rain gauge
stations. In the case study analysed, the situation of the monitoring network
was ideal in that the Camini Frejus rain gauge is located in the vicinity
of the sub-basins considered and in the Rio Frejus basin. Furthermore,
the comparison with the meteorological radar observations confirms the
coherence of the observed precipitation data. Table 4.3.8 contains the peak
discharge values for the basins considered. These values were obtained
by means of the rational formula and the distributed hydrological model
(FEST) in which the meteorological forces were obtained from the ground
monitoring network and the radar maps respectively.
The results provided by the application of the rational method allow an
approximate estimate of the maximum liquid discharges that transited in
the sections considered relative to the precipitations of the day of August
6th, 2004, which, for the outlet section located at 1,330 m in correspond-
ence to the apex of the Bardonecchia alluvial fan, equal to 40 m3 /s. Peak
discharge value obtained from the FEST model for the outlet section,
hypothesizing the precipitation supplied by the meteorological radar as
a meteorological force, results as being about 17 m3 /s with a peak time
estimated at about 18:30 UTC on August 6th, 2004; while using the data
of the rain gauge station, the value of 21 m3 /s at 18:40 UTC on August
6th, 2004 is obtained.
Finally, the hydrometric data recorded during the event (hydrometer
of Beaulard located on the Dora di Bardonecchia with data monitoring
interval of 5 minutes) recording at 18:50 UTC peak of 0.58 m over hydro-
metric zero, from which a discharge value of 20 m3 /s is obtained. The
maximum observed is inferior to the corresponding level of ordinary
criticality (1.6 m).
Figure 4.3.27 Photographs

downstream of the Rio Frejus
from the Via Torino bridge
during the conclusive phase
of the August 6th, 2004
mud-debris flow (source:
Valle di Susa).
Estimate of the peak discharge of the flow based on a survey of

the traces field observation
The estimate of the peak discharge of the 2004 event, carried out a poste-
riori according to the analysis of the morphological evidence and traces
of the passage of the flow, was conducted by applying motion equations
specific for the type of torrential processes considered. Prior to proceed-
ing with the calculations, it is necessary to characterise the process that
involved the Rio Frejus on August 6th, 2004. According to land surveys,
verbal testimonies, and photographs taken during the event, differences
were noticed between the characteristics of the drainage in the alluvial
fan and along the tributary channels where the process originated. In fact,
in the alluvial fan it can be reasonably assumed that a turbulent process
occurred with a significant liquid component in the inert, pebbly-muddy
debris current (Figure 4.3.27); while the basins of the Gautier and Mer-
dovine Rios were involved in mature debris currents (for the classification
see Takahashi, 1991 and 1999 in Ghilardi et al., 1999). For the estimate of
the peak discharge, reference was made to the correlation between unitary
peak discharge and maximum flow depth according to the run out velocity
of the flow and the slope of the channel (Hungr et al., 1984; Rickenmann
& Zimmermann, 1993).
The traces of the flow were surveyed in a series of cross sections and
in the main channel of the alluvial fan, in correspondence to the crossing
structures and some channelled sub-rectilineals (respectively PO and S
in Figure 4.3.28), and in the bed of the sub-basins of the Gautier and
Merdovine Rios in correspondence to curved stretches.
Figure 4.3.28 a) Hazard map for the Bardonecchia alluvial fan produced by the CatchRisk Project (AA.VV.,
2005a; 2005b): orange = high hazard, green = moderate hazard, blue = low hazard. Furthermore, the points
in which the transit sections of the mud-debris flow were measured are indicated (PO: crossings, S: straight
stretches).
b) Detail of the cross section of the PO4 bridge: blue indicated the level reached by the mud-debris flow of
August 6th, 2004; fuchsia indicates the height of the intrados from the bed bottom measured in February 2001;
green indicates the patch of terraced deposits observed during 2004 measurements.
c) Photographic detail of the traces of the mud-debris flow recorded on the hydrographic left under the
structure of the PO4 crossing. From the comparison of the bed conditions in the alluvial fan between the
post- August 6th, 2004 situation and February 2001 (Regione Piemonte, 2001), it can be deduced that the
reduction of the bearing distance of the crossings increases progressively from upstream downstream:
reduction of the discharge cross-section < 20% for PO1, PO2, PO3, PO4; reduction of the discharge cross-
section of approximately 50% in correspondence of the PO5 bridge and >80% in PO6 and PO7.
A unitary peak discharge of about 6 m2 /s was obtained in the alluvial

fan, corresponding to a total peak discharge (solid-liquid) of about 75 m3 /s
according to the following data:
• the average flow depth relative to the peak discharge lies between
2.2–2.5 m with an average bed width of 13 m in the stretch considered;
• the dip of the bed has an average value of <6◦ ;
• the flow speed, for which precise measurements during the event are
not available, can be hypothesized between 2 m/s and 3 m/s, in consid-
eration of the type of process considered and the slope values of the
bed in the alluvial fan (Rickenmann & Zimmermann, 1993).
Along the tributary channels of the Gautier and Merdovine Rios,
instead, the rise of the flow in the curve was measured in order to carry
TABLE 4.3.9 STREAM VELOCITY OF RIO GAUTIER AND RIO MERDOVINE

Rio Gautier* Rio Merdovine**
v [1] = 5.5 m/s v [1] = 5.5 m/s
i = 14° Rc = 18 m i = 8° Rc = 13 m
v [2] = 3.4 m/s v [2] = 3.4 m/s
* Upstream of the confluence with Rio Frejus [1] Johnson & Rodine, 1984
** Upstream of the confluence with Rio Comba Frejus [2] Hungr et al., 1984
our estimates of the velocity based on methods proposed by Johnson &

Rodine (1984) and by Hungr et al. (1984): both methods are based on
the difference in height of the flow measured on both banks in a curved
stretch (in fact, due to the effect of the centrifugal force, the flow reaches
a higher level on the external bank of a curve). According to heightening
data, the radius of curvature of the line that defines the centre bed (Rc),
and the inclination of the channel (i), the flow velocity can be deduced
(in m/s). Based on the average velocity values calculated (Table 4.3.9),
the total peak discharge calculated for both tributaries considered results
as approximately 105 m3 /s for the Rio Comba Gautier and approximately
78 m3 /s for the Rio Merdovine.
Estimate of the solid/liquid components

Beginning with the total peak discharge data, an indicative subdivision
of the discharge in liquid and solid components through a computational
approach that compares the liquid discharge to the total discharge through
values of volumetric concentration (Takahashi, 1981) was carried out.
The maximum total discharge (solid and liquid) of the flow Qd (m3 /s) is
correlated to the liquid discharge by the following equation:
Qd = Ql · [c∗ /(c∗ − cv )] (4.3.2)
where:
Ql is the maximum liquid discharge [m3 /s];
cv is the volumetric concentration of solid equilibrium (fine and rough)
in the steady current;
c* is the volumetric concentration of the solid phase of maximum packing
(c* = 0.8 on the alluvial fan of the Rio Frejus and c* = 0.7 on the Rio
Gautier and Merdovine).
The volumetric concentration of the rough solids in the steady, mature
debris current cdf is obtained through Takahashi’s equation, which has
been confirmed experimentally by various authors, as follows:
cdf = ρm · tan θ/(ρs − ρm ) · (tan φ − tan θ) (4.3.3)
where:
θ is the inclination of the land in the stretch considered [◦ ];
φ is the angle of static friction of the ground [◦ ];
TABLE 4.3.10 RELATIVE RATIO BETWEEN TOTAL DISCHARGE (100%)

AND LIQUID AND SEDIMENT DISCHARGE
Rio Gautier Rio Merdovine Rio Frejus
Liquid discharge 20% 55% 75%
Solid discharge 80% 45% 25%
ρs is the density of the rough solids (usually 2,600–2,700 kg/m3 );

ρm is the density of the interstitial fluid made up of water and fine sediment
[kg/m3 ].
In immature debris flows, the concentration of transport cq (ratio between
solid discharge and total discharge of the debris current) can be estimated
according to an empirical formula proposed by Takahashi himself (1981),
by which:
cq = 6.7 · (cdf )2 (4.3.4)
Given the notable difficulty in the correct evaluation of the input param-
eters (even a minimal variation in some of these parameters sensibly
influences the discharges), the results given are to be considered purely
indicative for the comparison with the results of the hydraulic modelling.
The total maximum discharges result as being decomposed into two com-
ponents – liquid and solid discharge – on average attested to being around
the values reported in Table 4.3.10.
In light of the analyses and the estimates made, it is important to
emphasise that the traces observed are relative to the peak discharge,
while the values that characterise the flow (c*, φ, ρm ) were assigned
considering its overall evolution. The distinction between the liquid and
solid components strongly depends on the channel slope, the granulometry
of the solid material, and the density and degree of thickening of the flow
mixture. In particular, the value of the solid discharge increases with the
increase in the value of channel slope and the value of density attributed
to the interstitial fluid of the flow and to diminish the value of the friction
angle of solid, potentially mobilized material and of the coefficient of
maximum packing of the flow (c*).
Considerations on water discharges

From a comparison between the liquid discharges calculated with the
Takahashi’s indirect method and the FEST hydrological model, there is
a notable discrepancy between the values in all sections studied. In par-
ticular, on the alluvial fan of the Rio Frejus (near the apex) the liquid
discharge estimated with the indirect method is about three times higher
than that deduced with the FEST model, while on the Rio Merdovine
and Rio Gautier, the discharges estimated with the indirect method are
about 7 times higher than those calculated with the data from the rain
gauges stations and about 10 times higher than the discharges calculated
by using data from the radar maps. This situation can be interpreted, in
addition to problems related to the application of the empirical formulas
in the indirect method, to the effects of amplification that the torrential
process undergoes during an event that leads to an overestimation of the
discharges.
In fact, the impulsive character of hyperconcentrated solid transport
implies extreme temporal and spatial variability of the processes, with
violent and intense flood waves alternated with moments of lesser dis-
charge, as observed during the August 2004 event. These reflections have
important impact on the evaluation of the magnitude of the event (with
dimensions of a few thousand cubic metres), for which it is not possible
to define the values with precision.
4.3.6 CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, based on the results obtained, some important considera-

tions relative to the specific characteristics of the August 2004 event and
the elements that condition the triggering and the evolution of flow phe-
nomena in the Rio Frejus basin are necessary. In particular, even though
some important questions remain unanswered, the analyses provided inter-
esting points to be taken into consideration for improving the forecasting
and prevention methods for these phenomena. The August 2004 flow,
while causing concern for the damage that occurred, was certainly not
exceptional in that it was well within the framework of established insta-
bility. In fact, the most recent historical and technical documents clearly
indicate that such phenomena occur frequently, especially during the sum-
mer period (from May to September), causing varying amounts of damage
each time.
The analysis of rainfall depths that accompany the triggering or the
phenomena and recorded during the events, for both the 2004 event and
historical ones, provide an overview in which, in relation to the reference
systems of critical rainfall adopted on a regional level, the precipitations
of the day of triggering appear to be only slightly significant as triggering
element.
The observations made during the monitoring phase of August 2004
indicated only the rainfall on August 3rd reached the pluviometric thresh-
old for moderate criticality adopted by the Regional Warning System. The
statistical analysis for the same day indicated rainfall with a return period
between 3 and 8 years, while the precipitations on August 6th, when the
flow occurred, were slightly higher than the rainfall of an average rainy day.
On the other hand, the Frejus basin presents evident geological and
geomorphological elements that facilitate the triggering and run out of
the flows, especially the presence of considerable debris accumulation that
interferes directly with the drainage channel. The analyses conducted on

the characterisation of the source areas of the August 2004 flow indicated
a typical framework of Alpine basins in calcschist units where the slopes
are often involved by large gravitational phenomena. These phenomena,
of different types and degrees of development, are in fact the main causes
of the production of debris material present in the streambed and along the
banks of the watercourses. This can be verified mostly along the torrential
channels of the Merdovine, Comba Gautier, and Comba del Frejus sub-
basins, which are subject to large accumulations of gravitational origins
along the margins or inside the channels themselves.
The main origins of the flows that involve the basin in question are
therefore inside the streambeds, which are often blocked by abundant loose
materials consisting mostly of fine silty-sandy material deriving from
the disintegration and alteration of the calceschists common at phylladic
levels. More generally, the main areas of triggering are localised where
high values of the following are also observed: (1) volume of debris, (2)
slope of the torrential channels, and (3) areas presumed to contribute to
drainage (analysis of the drainage area). It would appear that the triggering
of debris flows related to gravitational phenomena involved in the surface
covering of the slopes is less significant.
In this context, in order to the flows triggering, there must be a suf-
ficiently high and intense water income capable of suddenly mobilizing
large quantities of materials collected at several points along the water-
course. It is possible to hypothesize that the energy for the mobilization
of the material is provided by the sudden emptying of temporary debris
dams that may develop along the channel. These debris dams may develop
upstream of gravitational phenomena, of previous debris flows, or even of
snow accumulations. The evolution of these flash floods and run out of the
flow towards the valley, with the potential formation of other debris dams
and sudden releases, amplifies the effects of the torrential phenomenon
along its course. The geometric and morphological characteristics of the
basin, together with the presence of control measures, condition the bal-
ance of the erosive-depositional processes with important consequences
in the alluvial fan, where the main elements of risk reside.
The observations during the event and the surveys carried out during
the following days proved to be particularly significant in that they allowed
researchers to verify that the rheological characteristics of the 2004 mud-
debris flow were modified along the torrential channel, passing from a
mature mud-debris flow (in the upper parts of the basin) to an inertial,
hybrid, rocky-muddy debris flow (in the alluvial fan). In other words, the
phenomenon evolved, passing from a process richer in solid components
to a turbulent process with mainly liquid components. This evolution is
linked to the dimensions of the basin (with an areal extension greater than
22 km2 ) and the channels followed by the flow (about 8 km long, of which
the last 2 km upstream of the alluvial fan with a slope of less than 10◦ ),
which favour the deposition of the material transported. This aspect is
particularly emphasized in correspondence to the gorge present upstream

of the alluvial fan, where the reduced discharge cross-section (never more
than 1.5–2 m) and the low slope (about 5◦ ) diminish the velocity of the
flow and the granulometry of the material in transit.
According to these considerations, the temporal probability of this
event is subject to the influence of numerous variables that, at the moment,
are difficult to evaluate and quantify. In fact, for the comprehension of the
flow triggering mechanisms, it is necessary to consider both the precip-
itations and the characteristics of the basin in a model that is somewhat
complex and dynamic with an exclusive validity for the basin being stud-
ied. On the other hand, even the vast amount of literature available on this
topic does not offer a single methodology of forecasting that is valid for
extensive territories; rather, most of these works call attention to the need
to conduct in-depth studies on the knowledge of the basin, the analysis of
historic events, and the monitoring of triggering causes. In this context,
Arpa Piemonte is planning projects aimed at detailing the connections
between susceptibility and triggering causes of flows in order to evaluate
the feasibility of an approach for forecasting critical conditions.
Based on current knowledge, potential action aimed at adequately
reducing the risks in the territory of Bardonecchia includes the establish-
ment of a local alert system based on an instrument network (hydrophones,
geophones, etc.) capable of monitoring the run out of debris flows that
have already been triggered. In fact, this system is capable of registering
the hydrometric heights and the flow velocity and, according to the param-
eters previously calculated and estimated transit times, activating acoustic
and visual warning systems (for example, traffic lights to impede traffic
on the bridges). Obviously, this cannot substitute the necessary streambed
maintenance that must consist mainly of the regular maintenance and
restoration of water management works (check dams, sills, and stream-
banks protection works) and the cleaning of the alluvial fan channels,
above all in correspondence to bridges.
Acknowledgements
Many thanks to Dr. Nicola Quaranta for his precious collaboration.
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nosi in Italia. Archivio Centro regionale per le ricerche territoriali e geologiche
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Arpa Piemonte (2004b), Rapporto sui fenomeni di trasporto in massa dei rii Fenils
e Frejus del 06–07 agosto 2004. A cura dell’Area Previsione e Monitoraggio
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Occidentale: bacino padano e Liguria tirrenica, CNR-GNDCI (in Italian).
Ghilardi P, Natale L. & Savi F. (1999), Il rischio idraulico nelle aree di conoide,
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Giandotti M. (1934), Previsione delle piene e delle magre dei corsi d’acqua,
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Hungr O., Morgan G.C. & Kellerhals R. (1984), Quantitative analysis of debris
torrent hazard for design of remedial measures. Can. Geotech J., vol. 21, pp.
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Johnson A.M. & Rodine J.R. (1984), Debris flow. In Brunsden D. & Prior D.B.
(eds.) (1984), Slope instability. Chichester, Wiley; pp. 257–362.
Mancini M. (1990), La modellazione della risposta idrologica: effetti
della variabilità spaziale e dalla scala di rappresentazione del fenomeno
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(2002), Note illustrative della Carta Geologica d’Italia alla scala 1:50,000,
Foglio 132–152–153 Bardonecchia, Servizio Geologico d’Italia, Ente realizza-
tore Regione Piemonte – Direzione Regionale Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione (in
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method revisited, J. of Hydrology, vol. 162, pp. 433–439.
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valutazione di pericolosità e rischio dei fenomeni naturali e predisposizione di
piani comunali di Protezione Civile, Programma Interreg IIC Italia – Francia
(in Italian).
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documentation and analysis, Geomorphology, vol. 8, pp. 175–189.
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Prevenzione (in Italian).
Takahashi T. (1981), Estimation of potential debris flow hazardous zones: soft
countermeasures for a disaster, J. of Natural Disaster Sciences, vol. 3(1),
pp. 57–59.
Tarboton D.G. (1997), A new method for the determination of flow directions
and upslope areas in grid digital elevation models. Water Resources Research,
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Terrain Analysis for Water Resources Applications, The University of Texas at
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General
Conclusions 5
5.1 General Conclusions
“See, Glaucus, Already the deep sea is troubled with waves, and
around the peaks of Gyrae the clouds stand upright, a storm-signal.
From the unexpectedness of it, fear seizes me.” (The Cambridge His-
tory of Classical Literature, edited by P. E. Easterling, Bernard M. W.
Knox)
(Archilochus, Fragment 56)
The first excerpts of Greek literature record a natural event: the solar
eclipse of April 6th, 648 B.C., which Archilochus witnessed. A poet of
fiery passion, but also an astute observer of nature, he describes the precise
precursors to forewarn us of a storm that about to strike the Cyclades in
the intense rhythm of the tetrameters of another fragment. When faced
with such events, men of the VII century B.C. could only respond with
fear, which exploded inside them as suddenly as the calamity itself. Two-
thousand and seven–hundred years later, in an epoch when natural risk is
still perceived as an anomalous and extraordinary event, incompatible with
the schemes of technological development and paradoxically increasing
with economic and social growth, it is better, from one point of view,
to reflect on the state of knowledge in order to evaluate the important
steps forward that science has made in comprehending such phenomena
and relative defence techniques and interventions, but is also necessary
to highlight criticality, limits, and what is yet to come.
For natural catastrophes, the information collected is, on one hand,
considerably amplified, while on the other, it demonstrates consider-
able imprecision and several gaps: the complexity of the phenomena is
trivialized, giving the impression that remedies are simple and obvious.
The results of the Interreg IIC Operational Programme Assetto del ter-
ritorio e prevenzione delle inondazioni, which involved the cooperation
of French, Spanish, and Italian technical structures in the elaboration of
shared instruments for risk mitigation and the organisation of warning sys-
tems, has highlighted that in many cases the populations settled in areas
at risk tend to consider the possibility of being involved in such events
very remote. The zonings of risk are considered to be too scientific for a
clear understanding and are therefore considered to be irrelevant, while
the measures of limiting uses of portions of the territory potentially sub-
jected to the effects of events are considered as unpopular and viewed as an
undue limitation of freedom. Meteorological forecasting is perceived as
being too generic and conservative to generate credible warnings, but after
flooding, people will not hesitate to accuse governments, or others, for not
having intervened adequately to impede the effects of the event. All this is
452 General Conclusions
almost always accompanied by insistent and reiterated request for inter-

ventions (works along rivers, levees, rip-rap, check dams, interventions
on landslides, etc.) for the protection of infrastructures.
It is in this context that Arpa Piemonte has developed its strategic deci-
sion concerning non-structural actions in the field of prevention conducted
in close connection with the planning of risk assessment studies, surveil-
lance systems, warning systems, control systems, as well as systems for
emergency management.
This volume was conceived to represent the evolution of natural risk
forecasting from the points of view of methodology and examples, mark-
ing a quarter of a century of dedicated work by the Regional Prevention
Technical Services in the fields of research and operational applications
by highlighting the continual spirit of collaboration and reciprocal stimu-
lation and enrichment through the description of the most significant
results obtained.
After having concluded the illustration of the methodological
approaches and operative services presented in the text, it would seem
appropriate to formulate a series of considerations that allow the cul-
ture of forecasting, in a general sense, to be placed in its proper
perspective.
Forecasting activities must be merged with adequate advisory systems
that allow the identification, with sufficient notice and precision, of the
possible evolution of negative phenomena and its effects towards a parox-
ysmal phase in such a way as to be able to activate an emergency plan.
The emergency management phase represents the most critical point of the
entire forecasting activity. It must make reference to agile, easily managed
models: preference should be given to elementary and essential models
that are easy to use, rather than to more complex and sophisticated ones
that are difficult to use.
The functionality of a territorial forecasting model must also be judged
according to the possibility of updating and integrating it, according to
progress made in the comprehending of the mechanisms that govern the
development and evolution of the phenomena to be forecasted, thereby
amplifying the input options of the cause-effect matrix.
Geographic Information Systems today represent one of the main
instruments of management, elaboration, and analysis of knowledge in
environmental fields thanks to their specific capacity to represent and
model complex natural phenomena in space. Their use is fundamental
and irreplaceable for realising and managing the basic information levels,
whether topographic or thematic, for analysing hydrogeological risk prob-
lems, and for elaborating numerical risk and hazard maps useful for the
planning and governing of the territory.
All the proposable hazard assessment models and all the scenarios
that are formulated, having been derived from a simplified and synthetic
representation of reality, are of a subjective nature and must therefore be
read and interpreted while taking the initial hypotheses into account.
General Conclusions 453
A classification of the territory based on forecasts and hazard assess-

ment expressed in terms of probability represents a somewhat unmanage-
able approach in every way. For this reason it is destined to be used as
a territorial management tool by technicians who are expert in various
specific fields, from gravitational dynamics to urban planning to civil
protection. In fact, only a specialist can correctly manage the uncertainty
inherent in models by explaining the procedure, clarifying the limits, the
advantages, and the problems, while pointing out the correct usage for the
desired scope.
In the chapters dedicated to hazard assessment, the importance of
the expert’s contribution in interpreting and elaborating data supplied by
models in relation to the physical and climatic characteristics of the region
was highlighted in order to improve the quality of the forecasting prod-
uct. The interaction between meteorology and hydrology in forecasting
extreme events is actually a consolidated operative reality for the improved
management of the time that precedes the formation of flood waves. The
geological study and the geotechnical characterisation of the materials are
essential for the identification of potential debris flow in small mountain
basins.
When dealing with hydrogeological risk, it is necessary to take a
global viewpoint that calls for the synergic involvement of multidisci-
plinary knowledge and experts (meteorologists, hydrologists, hydraulic
and geotechnical engineers, geologists, etc.).
In addition to the variety of competencies, a correct cultural approach
of the problem of mitigating hydrogeological risk is indispensable. It
makes no sense to break down or disarticulate the diverse aspects related
to the entire problem into separate, or in any case scarcely correlated,
areas: the basic knowledge of natural processes, the forecasting activ-
ities of phenomena (identification and quantification of precursors), the
natural modelling processes of the territory (landslides, fluvial-torrential
activity), the prevention actions and the measure (land use planning,
intervention strategies and typologies, drafting of emergency plans), and
activities to be carried out during the emergency phase (realisation of
emergency plans, planning of structural and non-structural interventions).
The overall framework of forecasting and prevention of natural calam-
ities demands close collaboration among Public Bodies, with the function
or guidance and coordination as the depository of information resources
on a regional scale, and the Professional who operates on a local scale.
Only the synergies between Institutional and Professional figures, while
fully maintaining their respective roles, will result in the development and
implementation of the instruments needed for a more effective policy to
safeguard the territory from natural disasters.
In fact, the use of more sophisticated models certainly improves
the possibility of forecasting some phenomena, but also implies costs
(computational, time, and economic) that are sometimes impossible to
sustain indistinctly over the entire regional territory. For this reason, Arpa
454 General Conclusions
Piemonte has decided to adopt relatively simplified and general regional-

scale models (for example: rain-landslide and rain-river discharge models)
and use more complex instruments for those sectors that truly have a
greater probability of finding themselves in critical conditions.
These considerations guide Arpa Piemonte in the continuation of its
activities, with a view to evolution defined by structural community
policies aimed at sustainable development. The European Commission
has provided guidelines and appropriated financing for the Regional
Development Fund according to priorities established in the field of the
environment and risk management: the resolution of uncertainties con-
cerning specific local impact of climatic changes over the next thirty years
is the primary challenge to be considered with regards to mid- and long-
term programming. The Alpine territory and its ecosystem are particularly
susceptible to these strategic priorities.
The problem of climatic changes and their impact do not require only
study and global solutions, but rather an understanding of the effects
they may have on man and the environment in specific geographic areas.
Climatic changes alter natural landscapes by modifying the intensity, the
dimension, and the frequency of the phenomena associated with natural
risks. As for contrasting and mitigation measures, the warning process,
from the definition of risk to that of hazard thresholds, must also take
into consideration variable boundary conditions: the climatic dimension
as well as the evolution of the social-economic attributes of the areas
exposed.
Author Index
Barbero, Secondo 9, 231, 301, 321, Mallen, Luca 133

393 Marco, Federica 169, 409
Bellardone, Gianfranca 231 Mensio, Luca 353
Bertea, Andrea 201 Milelli, Massimo 265
Bertolotto, Paolo 45 Morelli, Michele 109
Bonansea, Enrico 15
Bosco, Fabrizio 353, 409
Nicolò, Gabriele 151, 353
Bovo, Stefano 393, 451
Oberto, Elena 399

Campus, Stefano 3, 151, 317, 353, Olivero, Enrico 201
393
Cane, Daniele 265
Castelli, Marta 133 Paesano, Giovanni 45
Cordola, Marco 201 Paro, Luca 3, 33, 109, 409
Cotti, Alberto 201 Pelosini, Renata 45
Cremonini, Roberto 321 Poncino, Serena 45
Cristina Prola, Maria 201
Rabuffetti, Davide 151, 321
Ronchi, Christian 45
Forlati, Ferruccio 393, 451
Fusetti, Ermes 133
Sanna, Antonella 265
Gandini, Daniele 45, 409 Tararbra, Mauro 409

Giampani, Claudia 231, 321 Tiranti, Davide 353, 409
Giudici, Ilaria 409 Troisi, Carlo 15
Graziadei, Mariella 321 Turco, Marco 265
Loglisci, Nicola 45 Zaccagnino, Milena 301

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Evaluation and Prevention of

LONDON / LEIDEN / NEW YORK / PHILADELPHIA / SINGAPORE

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2007.

© 2007 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK

Published by: Taylor & Francis/Balkema

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

ISBN 0-203-93461-X Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 13: 978-0-415-41386-2

1. INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPT OF HAZARD

2. THE ASSESSMENT OF HAZARD AND RISK

*Department of structural and geotechnical engineering

2.5 Torrential Processes 169

3. FORECASTING AND WARNING

*Regional Forecasting and Environmental Monitoring Area

4. THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECASTING AND

The safeguarding of the territory is one of the fundamental aspects of the

Such events motivated Piedmontese administrators to establish prior-

be addressed, due to the number of variables involved and the degree of

triggering of such events, and therefore the curve of separation of the

What is a disaster? It can be defined as an extraordinary event that sur-

TABLE 1.1.1 CLASSES OF DANGERS (Alexander, 2002)

Dangerous processes Structural failure, radiation emissions

Devices and machines Explosives, unexploded ordnance, vehicles,

Terrorist incidents Bombings, shootings, hostage taking, hijacking

Riots, demonstrations, crowd crushes and

Figure 1.1.1 The cycle of Impact

Recovery is the reconstruction phase, which may continue for many

Response is the actuation of procedures during the event or immediately

In developed countries, the impact of calamitous events has mostly

within a certain period of time. Therefore, from a more descriptive and

of the temporal, spatial, intensity, and evolution component. Therefore,

Alexander D. (2002), Principles of emergency planning and management. Oxford

A series floods on Italian territory have called attention to the fundamen-

1.2.2 THE NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM

The new organisational structure is defined specifically in the Directive

the Regions, and by the Autonomous Provinces through the Centri

effects on the ground automatic monitoring network

Figure 1.2.1 Components of the regional Centro Funzionale.

meteo-hydrological events, the typology, and the severity of the relative

1.2.3 THE “CENTRO FUNZIONALE’’ OF PIEMONTE

Regional Law n. 28/2002 assigns Arpa Piemonte the regional planning,

Figure 1.2.2 Bulletins issued by the regional Centro Funzionale.

Territorial Government Regional Offices Provincial Offices

Figure 1.2.3 Flow plan for the diffusion of warnings.

1.3.1 THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION

Analysing the role of Geographic Information Systems in the field of

ITC staff HUMAN workflow

Figure 1.3.1 Components of a Geographic Information System.

During the same years, projects aimed at implementing these con-

Today, Geographic Information Systems represent one of the main

The management of a complex Geographic Information System in fact

data elaboration, the production of specific numerical modelling (like the

to make a significant contribution to the diffusion and sharing of environ-

1.3.2 GEOTHEMATIC INFORMATION AS AN INSTRUMENT

The Arpa Piemonte Regional Centre for Territorial and Geological

Processes and Effects Subsystem

distribution, and characterisation. The integration of the historical data

Source and Documentation Subsystem