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Victory Joint Stock Company

Victory Joint Stock Company (VICO) was established in 1993 in Binh Duong province whose
mission is to serve the beverage demand of Binh Duong citizens and contribute to creating jobs
for local labour. Its main product is mineral water (Victory Company, 2021a).

VICO is a small-medium enterprise in Binh Duong province. However, its spirit which is “Using
Victory mineral water is the best way to protect your health” has guided the company through ups
and downs in history. The company always offers a quality product to the market. It is shown that
over the last 20 years, there is no scandal about the quality of the product (Victory Company,
2021a).

Figure 1.1 presents the range of product that is currently produced at VICO - the types of container
are different, ranging from 250ml to 19l.

FIGURE 1.1 Products of Victory Company (Victory Company, 2021b).

This case was written by Ninh Tran Thuy Duong, Becamex Business School, Eastern International
University, Binh Duong. The case was developed solely for discussion purposes to illustrate how
forecasting techniques would be done.
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Elbe is the new employee of the Planning department and she is responsible for preparing the
forecast for the most demanding product of the company which is VICTORY 350ML. Listed
below is a summary of sales by month, from October 2018 – December 2019.
2018
Oct 12,622
Nov 14,474
Dec 15,932
2019
Jan 14,935
Feb 8,500
Mar 16,071
Apr 12,653
May 16,394
Jun 9,629
Jul 10,751
Aug 9,309
Sep 9,665
Oct 11,611
Nov 13,602
Dec 13,215

Elbe needs your help to determine the best forecasting techniques based on the given data (Round
the result to one decimal place).
1. Calculate a forecast using a simple three-month moving average method.
2. Calculate a forecast using a simple 3-period weighted moving average method. Use
weights of t = 0.6; t – 1 = 0.3 and t – 2 = 0.1.
3. Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Use alpha = 0.6. Assume the
forecast for the first period is 15,000.
4. Determine the four types of forecasting errors by comparing them to the actual sales in
2020 as below:

This case was written by Ninh Tran Thuy Duong, Becamex Business School, Eastern International
University, Binh Duong. The case was developed solely for discussion purposes to illustrate how
forecasting techniques would be done.
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2020 Demand
Jan 14,460
Feb 11,000
Mar 13,310
Apr 15,000
May 15,150
Jun 11,800
Jul 12,375
Aug 12,500
Sep 11,230
Oct 11,512
Nov 12,750
Dec 13,800

5. Based on the forecasting errors, in your opinion, which method produced the best forecast?
What is your recommendations for the company?

List of References

Victory Company. (2021a). Introduction. http://victorywater.vn/gioi-thieu/tam-nhin-chien-luoc-

3.html

Victory Company. (2021b). Product. http://victorywater.vn/san-pham.html

This case was written by Ninh Tran Thuy Duong, Becamex Business School, Eastern International
University, Binh Duong. The case was developed solely for discussion purposes to illustrate how
forecasting techniques would be done.