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26 May 2021

Country Economic Forecast

Colombia

Economist
 GDP growth in Q1 beat our forecast and consensus at 2.9% q/q, according to
Felipe Camargo national accounts data. After revising our expectations for Q2 to consider the
Senior Economist lingering social upheaval since end-April, we now forecast the Colombian
economy to grow 7% this year, up from 6.3% previously. Although S&P’s rating
+52 55 8526 7436
downgrade was broadly anticipated by our most recent fiscal assessment, it
came much sooner than markets expected. This is likely to be the first of
multiple rating cuts as we expect more agencies will follow, causing Colombia
to likely lose its investment grade status by the end of the year.

 National accounts data unveiled a surprising Q1 result, with GDP now only 0.7% short
Stronger-than- of its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic level. This brings carry-over growth into 2021 to 8%. But
expected Q1 growth a mini-contraction in Q2 is likely due to lingering riots in most urban regions, bringing
bumps our 2021 GDP our GDP growth forecast to 7% in 2021.
forecast up to 7%
 As anticipated in previous reports, April inflation showed persistent signs of upward
cost pressures. Annual inflation now sits at 1.9% y/y, driven mostly by food and
energy prices, which are likely to keep trending up given the weaker peso. We see
inflation at 3.3% y/y by year-end which, along with increased fiscal risks, adds further
pressure to monetary policy. Our policy rate forecast remains unchanged at 1.75% by
end-2021, but we do recognize that risks are now tilted to the upside.

 Our medium-term fiscal accounts baseline has deteriorated significantly as

We expect pre-crisis
consequence of the Duque’s administration failure to put forward a more robust tax-
debt-to-GDP levels to
based fiscal adjustment reform. We now expect pre-crisis debt-to-GDP levels to be
be recovered by
recovered by 2040 rather than 2030, which forces us to adjust our equilibrium real
2040 rather than
exchange rate forecast down by 5% and 10-year bond yields up by 100bps.
2030
Forecast for Colombia
(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real GDP growth (% year) 3.3 -6.8 7.0 4.2 4.8 4.1
CPI inflation (%, average) 3.5 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0
Exports of goods ($ bn) 42.4 33.5 41.0 46.4 50.2 53.8
Exports of services ($ bn) 10.6 5.7 10.4 11.5 12.2 12.9
Imports of goods ($ bn) 50.8 41.4 52.5 53.5 57.9 61.6
Imports of services ($ bn) 15.0 10.2 14.7 16.7 17.7 18.6
Exports of goods (% year) -4.7 -21.0 22.4 13.3 8.1 7.2
Imports of goods (% year) 2.5 -18.5 26.9 1.7 8.3 6.4
Current account ($ bn) -14.3 -9.1 -15.6 -12.5 -13.8 -14.3
Current account balance (% of GDP) -4.4 -3.3 -5.1 -3.7 -3.8 -3.7
Exchange rate per USD (year average) 3,281 3,693 3,607 3,522 3,516 3,540
External debt total ($bn) 138.7 159.2 168.6 175.0 182.0 191.5
Government balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -8.1 -8.2 -7.1 -5.6 -4.4
Gross government debt (% of GDP) 52.3 62.8 65.5 68.3 68.8 68.6
Population (millions) 50.2 50.9 51.1 51.3 51.6 51.8
Nominal GDP ($bn) 323.4 271.6 304.8 334.0 361.6 384.9
GDP per capita ($ current prices) 6438 5337 5964 6506 7014 7434

Contact: Felipe Camargo | fcamargo@oxfordeconomics.com

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Forecast overview
Q1 2021 growth was stronger than expected Colombia: GDP growth decomposition
pp contributions to q/q growth, Q1 2021
National accounts data shows a 2.9% q/q GDP increase in
GDP 2.9
Q1, leaving the economy only 0.7% below its pre-pandemic
level, a much stronger-than-expected recovery so far. Investment 2.7

Growth was mostly driven by domestic demand, with a

Privt. Consumption 2.2
sturdy 14.6% q/q jump in investment. Carry-over into 2021 is
now at 8%, but we expect momentum to be hurt by the Exports 1.6

ongoing riots since end-April. We forecast a one-off Govt. consumption 0.1

contraction in Q2 to be followed by a moderate pace of
Stockbuilding -1.8
growth, bringing 2021 GDP growth to 7%.
Imports -2.0
Colombia’s weakness is net exports, which have
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
underperformed most regional peers mainly due to weak Source : Oxford Economics/DANE
export volumes and relatively resilient imports. We expect
this to change when the economy fully recovers once
collective immunity levels are reached, although vaccination
trends have been lacklustre. Colombia: Monthly activity index (ISE)
2015=100, seasonally adjusted
130
ISE F'cast
Policy action is nearing exhaustion 2010-2019 trend
120
The fiscal response to the pandemic crisis was timid at first, Pre-pandemic peak

with the primary spending impact estimated at 3% of GDP in 110

2020. Authorities tapped into the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line
100
for cheap funding, debuting its use globally. Since then,
budgeted spending has increased significantly. 90

We forecast Colombia’s fiscal deficit to be 8.2% of GDP in 80

2021 due to the extension of fiscal spending to support the
70
recovery this year. With debt expected to hover close to 70% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
of GDP, we see little room for spending levels to remain this Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

high. Government debt should gradually converge towards a

2% of GDP deficit over a 5-year horizon.

Colombia: Gov't balance

Monetary policy on hold amid low inflation % of GDP
30 Primary spending
Inflation is currently hovering around 1.9% y/y, which is still Interest payments Forecast
Revenue
below the central bank’s (BanRep’s) target range of 3% (+/- 20 Govt balance
1%), but cost pressures on inflation are building up. We
expect CPI at 3.3% y/y by year-end. To provide support to 10

the economy during the pandemic downturn, BanRep cut the

0
policy rate by 250bps to 1.75%, and has maintained its
lower-for-longer forward guidance ever since. We forecast -10
the policy rate to remain on hold until 2022 and then slowly
normalise to its terminal level of 4.25% by 2025. Yet, we -20

recognize upside risks to our forecast given that the neutral

-30
rate may have increased given the recent rating downgrade 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source : Oxford Economics
by S&P.

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

The key factors behind our GDP growth forecast are: Colombia: Inflation and main components
% y/y
• Inflation will remain below target in 2021: Last year 18 CPI
F'cast
CPI Core
inflation neared the upper bound of BanRep’s target 15
CPI Food
range due to multiple food price shocks. But there was 12 CPI Energy
still spare capacity in the Colombian economy, even Target
9
before the current crisis, providing room for policy easing.
6
We expect inflation to reach 3.3% y/y by the end of 2021
and target stabilisation by 2022. 3

0
• Commitment to fiscal responsibility: Colombia has -3
followed a long-term fiscal consolidation programme, with
-6
the debt-to-GDP ratio hovering around 50% since 2015. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Due to the pandemic downturn, the government has Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

allowed the deficit to widen in 2020 and 2021 to support

the recovery, but after that the country should return to
fiscal consolidation to maintain its investment grade
rating. Debt is likely to reach over 67% of GDP by 2022,
Colombia: External financing
but the economy is set to grow by an average pace of
% of GDP
Foreign direct investment
3.7% pa over the next 10 years, which should support a 6 Forecast
Current account
gradual fiscal consolidation path towards pre-pandemic 4 External financing
levels of debt-to-GDP by 2040.
2

• Current account deficit around 4% of GDP, although 0

long-term adjustment is still likely: Colombia has
-2
adjusted to a more sustainable external position after the
current account deficit widened to 5%-6% of GDP in -4

2014-2015. We expect the external gap will remain at -6

around 4% of GDP in 2021-2024 before narrowing
-8
gradually to below 3% of GDP by the late 2020s. This 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
poses a threat to Colombia’s external outlook since most Source : Oxford Economics
of this deficit is not expected to be funded by future
foreign direct investment. This means Colombia could
face sudden stops from portfolio outflows and be forced
to rely on IMF funding for external liquidity support.
Emerging markets: GDP growth (2021-2030)
• External imbalances threaten the peso: The India 7.2
Colombian peso has recovered a significant portion of its Indonesia 5.4
losses after it plunged during the global market crash in China 4.9
Peru 4.5
March 2020. Our Panel model approach suggests the
Colombia 3.7
peso would be fairly priced at COP3,500/US$1, and we Turkey 3.3
expect a gradual convergence towards this level in real Chile 3.2
Nigeria 3.2
terms. Yet the country’s external position should remain
Mexico 2.4
fragile once the lockdowns end and domestic demand Argentina 2.4
picks up. Such demand would stimulate imports, but the S. Africa 2.3
Brazil 2.2
global appetite for Colombian exports remains subdued.
Russia 1.7
This could put further pressure on the peso.
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Source : Oxford Economics Average annual GDP growth (%)

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Economic Risk Evaluation

Overall risk for Colombia: 4.5/10* Colombia:
Colombia’s overall economic risk score of 4.5 is relatively Economic risk index
low compared with the emerging markets average of 5.7. It (Scores from 1 to 10 with 10 = highest risk)
ranks 51st out of 164 countries in our survey.
Score
Rank out of
May 2021 change from
164†
Weak oil prices had adverse repercussions in 2016, but November
growth picked up following the oil price recovery in 2017- Overall 4.5 51 0.0
2018. Fiscal pressures remain manageable thanks to the Market demand 4.0 27 0.0
Market cost 5.0 68 0.0
approval of structural fiscal reforms. Inflation has fallen from
Exchange rate 3.8 72 0.0
a peak of 9% in July 2016 to within the central bank’s target
Sovereign credit 4.8 73 0.3
band of 2%-4%. The outlook considers the current social Trade credit 5.0 39 0.0
upheaval after the government tried to pass a tax-based † (1 indicates lowest risk ranking)
fiscal adjustment reform proposal.

Market demand: 4/10

Domestic demand should remain strong in the coming years
once the coronavirus shock has ended, driven by a broad-
based recovery and lower inflation. The implementation of
an aggressive reform agenda has supported business
confidence, while the weak peso (relative to its value in
2010-2014) has improved the competitiveness of non-
energy exports in overseas markets.

Market cost: 5/10 Economic risk: Colombia vs Emerging markets

Colombia’s market cost risk score is 5, significantly below average
the EM average of 5.7. Current inflation is hovering close to Risk score, 10 = highest
10
the bottom of the 2%-4% target range after peaking at 9% in
Emerging markets average
July 2016. 8

6
Labour costs are likely to increase steadily, but rising
4
productivity gains have kept this in check. Medium-term risks
are now tilted to the downside as a much dire tax reform was 2

scrapped and political uncertainty remains high since end- 0

Mexico
Russia

Paraguay

Puerto Rico
Argentina
Chile
China
US

Brazil

Venezuela
Peru

Colombia
Panama

S Africa

Uruguay
Ecuador
Bolivia
Turkey

April riots.

Source : Oxford Economics

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Exchange rate: 3.8/10

The Colombian peso weakened during 2018-2019, reflecting
the outlook of a declining external position. The currency Economic risk: Colombia vs Emerging markets
plunged in late February and March 2020, in line with other average
Market demand
Latin American currencies, as the global coronavirus crisis 10.0
and the collapse in oil prices led to financial turmoil. 8.0
6.0
4.0
Trade credit Market cost
Sovereign credit: 4.8/10 2.0
Emerging markets average
0.0
Colombia
The sovereign credit risk score is 4.8, according to our data- Colombia 6 months ago

based methodology. This is below both the regional average

of 5.6 and the emerging markets average of 5.2. Still, the Exchange rate Sovereign credit
score is on a worrying upward trend since the pandemic-
induced downturn.

Source : Oxford Economics

External and fiscal deficits had narrowed prior to the current
crisis thanks to significant FDI inflows. This was a positive
development, though external debt was still high. The recent
failure to implement a tax-based fiscal adjustment reform
bodes ill for long run debt prospects.

Colombia currently holds a low-tier investment-grade credit

score. But the recent downgrade to BB+ by S&P potentially
puts Colombian bonds on a rough path into junk.

Trade credit: 5/10

Trade credit risk in Colombia remains moderate at 5, below Colombia: Oil price and the COP
the EM average of 7.1. This is supported by the prospect of % y/y
% y/y
(reversed)
healthy economic growth in the medium term. According to 80 World Price Oil (West Texas Intermediate) -50
the Heritage Foundation, Colombia has the second-highest Exchange rate (RHS) Forecast -40
60
economic freedom score in Latin America (behind only -30
Chile), ranking particularly high on trade, investment, and 40
-20
business freedom. 20 -10

0 0
10
-20
20
-40
30
-60 40
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Source : Oxford Economics

* Risk scores are from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the highest risk. For our full country risk service, see
www.risk-evaluator.com. Sovereign credit risk comes from our sovereign risk tool and foreign exchange risk
comes from our FX tool. Find out more.

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Background
Economic development
Colombia built its economy on coffee exports in the early twentieth century but started to diversify in the 1960s. The
country has a long reputation for fiscal prudence and was the only major economy in the region to escape default in the
Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s. However, from the mid-1960s, Colombia was wracked by a bloody conflict
between government forces, paramilitary groups, and far-left guerrillas, notably the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC). An estimated 220,000 people were killed during the conflict, over 80% of whom were civilians. In
addition to the huge loss of life, the conflict created economic costs and deterred investors. After imprudent policies in the
1990s prompted a market backlash, the government floated the exchange rate and reached an extended fund facility with
the IMF. Since then, the Colombian economy has modernised extensively, with an inflation-targeting central bank, a well-
developed financial sector, and contained imbalances. A peace agreement was reached with the FARC in 2016, marking
the end of the internal conflict. Today, the economy is still recovering from the oil price crash of 2014-2015. But Colombia
is in a structurally solid position and has been inducted to the OECD.

Structure of the economy

Consumption dominates the Colombian economy at 65%-70% of GDP, but investment’s share of spending has risen
since 2000, accounting for almost a quarter in 2015. Colombia has an open economy, as exports and imports together
make up over 35% of GDP. Services dominate the economy in terms of output, with private service sectors accounting for
just under half of GDP. Financial services account for 5% of GDP, and this share is rising. Manufacturing makes up 13%
of output, and agriculture 7%. Colombia is an oil exporter, but energy extraction is only 5% of GDP.

Balance of payments and structure of trade

Colombia’s major export is oil at 40% of total exports, down from about 60% in 2013. Colombia produced over 1 million
bbl/d of oil in 2013, though this figure has fallen below 850,000 bbl/d in the last two years due to less investment and
lower prices. Coal makes up another 15%-20% of exports and coffee 5%-8%. Colombia is still vulnerable to large shifts in
the oil price. The drop seen in 2014-2015 pulled the current account deficit to 6.3% of GDP, and the subsequent
adjustment to the weaker terms of trade position pushed Colombia’s real GDP growth from 4.5% in 2014 to 2% or below
in 2016 and 2017. The US is Colombia’s largest export destination, accounting for 31% of exports in 2019, with sales to
the EU and China each around 11% of the total.

Policy
Colombia has a sound macroeconomic policy framework. The central bank is independent, with only one political
appointee on the board, and has a clear mandate to target 3% (+/- 1%) inflation. The exchange rate is fully flexible, which
allows the economy to quickly adjust to external shocks. Fiscal policy is also constrained by a constitutional rule that the
“structural” fiscal deficit must narrow to 1% of GDP by 2022. This is not too contractionary, given that the overall deficit
target takes into account the size of the output gap and oil price movements on top of the structural goal.

Politics
Colombia is historically a conservative country, without much history of left-wing revolution or military dictatorship in the
twentieth century. However, the enmities created in a 1948-1958 civil war known as “La Violencia” created a long and
bloody internal conflict. A poor internal security environment also gave an opening to drug barons and cartels, which
engaged in open political violence in the mid-1980s. Successive governments alternated between peace overtures and
military crackdowns, until hawkish President Álvaro Uribe’s defence secretary, Juan Manuel Santos, became president
and shocked observers by negotiating a peace deal with FARC. While the initial deal was narrowly rejected in an October
2016 referendum, a revised agreement was passed through Congress in November 2016. However, implementation of
the peace deal was a central issue in the 2018 presidential elections. The winner, conservative Iván Duque, vowed to
modify the deal further, but has proved hesitant in office. In economic policy, Duque was set to provide continuity with
previous administrations’ fiscal prudence, but the unpopular tax-based fiscal adjustment plan could be his downfall.

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Key Facts
Politics
Head of state: President Iván DUQUE
Head of government: President Iván DUQUE
Political system: Democracy
Date of next presidential election: 2022
Date of next legislative election: 2022
Currency: Colombian peso (COP), floating exchange rate

Long-term economic & social development

1980 1990 2000 2019*
GDP per capita (US$) 1242 1445 2520 6429
Inflation (%) 26.6 29.1 9.2 3.5
Population (mn) 26.9 33.1 39.6 50.2
Urban population (% of total) 63.7 69.5 74.0 81.1
Life expectancy (years) 66.9 69.8 73.0 77.3
Source : Oxford Economics & World Bank

Structure of GDP by output * 2019 or latest

2019 available year
Agriculture 6.7% Source : CIA Factbook
Industry 26.3% Location: Northern South America, bordering the Caribbean Sea,
Services 67.0% between Panama and Venezuela, and bordering the North Pacific
Source : World Bank Ocean, between Ecuador and Panama (CIA factbook)

Long-term sovereign credit ratings & outlook Corruption perceptions index 2019
Foreign currency Local currency Score
Fitch BBB- (Negative) BBB- (Negative) Developed economies (average) 74.5
Moody's Baa2 (Negative) Baa2 (Negative) Emerging economies (average) 38.3
S&P BB+ (Stable) BBB- (Stable) Colombia 37.0
Western Hemisphere 39.7

Source: Transparency International

Structural economic indicators Scoring system 100 = highly clean, 0 = highly corrupt
1990 1995 2000 2019*
Current account (US$ million) 542 -4516 845 -14285
Trade balance (US$ million) 1971 -2546 2670 -8451 Composition of goods & services exports 2018
FDI (US$ million) 500 968 2395 11095
16.6% 3.8%
Debt service (US$ million) 3891 4369 5146 19225 11.3%
Debt service (% of exports) 43.1 33.7 30.6 37.5
External debt (% of GDP) 36.4 27.4 34.4 42.9

Oil production (000 bpd) 440 585 691 891 4.3%

Oil consumption (000 bpd) 196 251 281 337
Source : Oxford Economics / World Bank / EIA
49.4%
14.6%
Destination of goods' exports 2020
U.S. 30.0%
European Union 10.3% Agricultural products Fuels and mining products
Panama 4.8% Manufactures Transport
P.R. China 15.4%
Travel Other commercial services
Other 39.5%
IMF DOTS Source : WTO

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Country Economic Forecast | Colombia

Factors affecting risk scores: Colombia

Overall risk: 4.5/10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Market demand rating: 4.0/10
Domestic demand, % y/y 4.1 -7.4 7.4 2.7 3.8 3.2 3.1
Government balance, % of GDP -2.2 -8.1 -8.2 -7.1 -5.6 -4.4 -3.5
Gross government debt, % of GDP 52.3 62.8 65.5 68.3 68.8 68.6 67.8
Policy interest rate, % 4.25 1.75 1.75 2.75 3.50 4.00 4.3
Domestic credit, % of GDP 56.2 57.9 59.9 62.1 64.3 66.6 68.9
Fixed investment, % of GDP 21.4 18.8 20.4 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5
Output gap, % of GDP - - - - - - -
Real GDP per capita, 2015 US$ 6405 5893 6278 6514 6797 7043 7266.8

Market cost rating: 5.0/10

Nominal unit wage costs, 2008=100 151.1 150.0 151.3 161.6 170.7 178.7 185.7
Real fuel imports % total imports - - - - - - -
Energy use per unit of GDPPPP 42.4 40.5 38.6 36.6 34.7 32.8 30.9
Exchange rate, average, LCU per US$ 3281 3693 3607 3522 3516 3540 3570.6
Output gap, % of GDP - - - - - - -
Unemployment rate, % 10.5 16.1 13.5 11.8 11.1 10.6 10.3
Real GDP per capita, 2015 US$ 6405 5893 6278 6514 6797 7043 7266.8

Exchange rate rating: 3.8/10

Exchange rate, average, LCU per US$ 3281 3693 3607 3522 3516 3540 3571
Exchange rate, avg, PPP, LCU per US$ 1373 1376 1403 1427 1443 1457 1471
Current account of BOP, % of GDP -4.4 -3.3 -5.1 -3.7 -3.8 -3.7 -3
External debt, % of GDP 42.9 58.6 55.3 52.4 50.3 49.7 50
Policy interest rate, % 4.25 1.75 1.75 2.75 3.50 4.00 4
FX reserves, months of imports 11.9 16.4 13.3 13.4 12.7 12.4 12

Sovereign credit rating: 4.8/10

GDP, real, % y/y 3.3 -6.8 7.0 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.6
GDP per capita, PPP, US$ 13758 12657 13485 13992 14600 15127 15608.6
Government balance, % of GDP -2.2 -8.1 -8.2 -7.1 -5.6 -4.4 -3.5
Gross government debt % of GDP 52.3 62.8 65.5 68.3 68.8 68.6 67.8

Trade credit rating: 5.0/10

GDP, real, % y/y 3.3 -6.8 7.0 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.6
External debt, % of GDP 42.9 58.6 55.3 52.4 50.3 49.7 49.5
GDP per capita, PPP, US$ 13758 12657 13485 13992 14600 15127 15608.6

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