Candace Farmer

Applying RAPT assignment

May 26, 2020

1) What are President Trump’s primary interests in this situation?

According to the rational political ambition theory, President Trump would

presumably be guided by his re-election in his tariff war with China, but I disagree.
Having read his book the Art of Deal, written decades before he ran for office, I
believe Trump is guided by his interest in securing the best possible deal for the
country. In the book, he discusses how most politicians’ tend not to concern
themselves with costs because they are not paying for things with their own money.
Since Trump spent his life as a businessman, he is naturally inclined to run America
like a business and is concerned with the prices that we pay in every trade structure.
The President has also been clear in his belief that we’ve already been in a trade war
with China for decades, as they’ve undercut American production and made the
arbitrary demand that Americans who wish to enter the Chinese market, must at first
transfer their technology to China. Technology transfers are unfair trade practices
which are banned by the World Trade Organization. Above all else, I think Trump is
guided by a desire to see a fair economic solution— but, in line with RAPT, he will
want to reach that solution before November’s election.

2) What are the primary U.S. national interests?

The primary U.S interests are the economy and national security. China is a major
source of business and our relationship with them directly impacts the markets. Any
inability to reach a positive outcome on trade, would have detrimental effects upon our
economy which would ripple throughout the larger international community.
Separately, similar to the United States, China is both a dominant economic and
military power. When tensions rise between two world powers, the entire world awaits
anxiously for a peaceful resolution— especially the domestic citizens of the countries
involved. In essence, maintaining peace and increasing our economic position are the
primary concerns of the United States.

3) Are there any powerful domestic interests seeking to influence the outcome of this
situation? If so, what are the potential domestic consequences to the
administration?
 American businesses with major overseas economic ties would be most keen to
influence the outcome of the situation. For example, Apple. China is the largest
smartphone maker in the world and is Apple’s number one manufacturing base. Apple
therefore absorbs a major financial hit when tariffs are applied to all of their products.
Domestic consequences for the Trump administration would be an at-home war with
U.S tech giants, who yield a tremendous amount of power and influence (jobs, news,
etc) within America. For example, if they began lay-offs and blamed the current
administration, they could sway American voters as to the detrimental impacts of the
administration’s trade war.

4) What are President Xi Jinping primary interests in this situation?

Since China is ruled by a communist party and is absent term limits, President Xi is not
concerned about the general population’s opinion of his actions. Rather, I believe his primary
interest will be increasing China’s influence within the world. Since America is a strong
competitor to China, controlling the narrative and making America look like the aggressor
might reign chief among his concerns. Also, he would be keenly interested in maintaining
China’s access to the South China sea, a claim which has antagonized many other countries in
the region (Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia), and a conflict area that America may be
looking to exploit.

5) What are the primary Chinese national interests?

Similar to the United States, national security is always of domestic interest. Also, the
Chinese are guided by an interest to be viewed as a peers among the international community.
They would not want any of their many global business ties to be disrupted by a trade war
with another world power.

6) Are there any powerful domestic interests within China seeking to influence the
outcome of this situation? If so, what are the potential domestic consequences to
those regimes?

China’s government structure makes it so that the most powerful domestic organization within
China is the government, however outside of the mainland, in both Hong Kong and Taiwan,
civil unrest against China has been rampant. Taiwan is benefiting economically from the war,
as trade has been diverted to the tune of billions to their territory. In essence, the war has
stimulated their economy in the way that further allows them to pose a threat to China.
Similarly, Hong Kong has been exempted from the U.S tariffs. Having long viewed
themselves as an extension of Western principles, Hong Kong may see the trade war as an
opportunity to further cripple the mainland’s encroachment into their autonomy.
7) Who are the most powerful international actors that will try to influence this
situation?

The World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund

8) What are the basic goals of these international actors?

These international actors operate under the belief that globalization is the way of the future.
They believe that increased cooperation between countries via a multilateral trading system is
of benefit to all. The Trump administration is hostile to such ideas, viewing these
organizations as unfair regulatory agencies which tend to benefit fully developed, high-
income economies (such as South Korea and China) at the expense of America. As the United
States and China are the number 1 and 2 funding members of the WTO— if either of them
feels mistreated it could significantly impact the organization’s operations and global sphere
of influence. Either country pulling out the organization would deliver a significant blow.

9) Given these answers, assess the likelihood that this policy will result in a positive
outcome for the Trump administration and the U.S. at large in terms satisfying most of
their primary interests in this situation.

I believe that in the end, China and the Unites States will come to a deal—likely just ahead of
the election—and although the deal will certainly not include all of the Trump
administration’s desires, it will definitively be more fair than the past arrangement. Any
upgraded deal will be a win for the Trump administration, and the U.S economy as whole, and
will serve China’s interest in being viewed as a fair and compromising leader among the
world stage. Also, any deal between the two powers will satisfy both of their nation’s desires
to maintain peace.