15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL.

6977

The Influences of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Multiscale Rainfall

Variability over the South China Sea and Maritime Continent in December 2016

WEI-TING CHEN, SHIH-PEI HSU, YUAN-HUAI TSAI, AND CHUNG-HSIUNG SUI

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

(Manuscript received 24 July 2018, in final form 16 July 2019)

ABSTRACT

We studied the scale interactions of the convectively coupled Kelvin waves (KWs) over the South China
Sea (SCS) and Maritime Continent (MC) during December 2016. Three KWs were observed near the equator
in this month while the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) was inactive. The impacts of these KWs on the
rainfall variability of various time scales are diagnosed, including synoptic disturbances, diurnal cycle (DC),
and the onset of the Australian monsoon. Four interaction events between the KWs and the westward-
propagating waves over the off-equatorial regions were examined; two events led to KW enhancements and
the other two contributed to the formation of a tropical depression/tropical cyclone. Over the KW con-
vectively active region of the MC, the DC of precipitation was enhanced in major islands and neighboring
oceans. Over the land, the DC hot spots were modulated depending on the background winds and the terrain
effects. Over the ocean, the ‘‘coastal regime’’ of the DC appeared at specific coastal areas. Last, the Australian
summer monsoon onset occurred with the passage of a KW, which provided favorable conditions of low-level
westerlies and initial convection over southern MC and the Arafura Sea. This effect may be helped by the
warm sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña condition of this month. The current
results showcase that KWs and their associated scale interactions can provide useful references for weather
monitoring and forecast of this region when the MJO is absent.

1. Introduction difference, complex coastlines, and steep topography

(Birch et al. 2015). This region is surrounded by islands
The South China Sea (SCS) and Maritime Continent
and continents with complex topography, which culti-
(MC) regions are located at the center of the Indo-
vates prominent diurnal variability of convection. Peri-
Pacific warm pool. This region is at the heart of the
odically and zonally propagating modes of tropical
rising branch of both the Hadley circulation and
convection at different temporal and spatial scales can
Walker circulation and is also the critical pathway of
be found active over the SCS–MC. These are regarded
the Asian–Australian monsoon system (Chang et al.
as convectively coupled tropical waves based on the
2005). Convection over MC provides the heat source
theoretical study of Matsuno (1966) and the analysis of
for driving the extratropical circulation (Ramage 1968;
Wheeler and Kiladis (1999), including the Madden–
Neale and Slingo 2003), and through teleconnections it
Julian oscillation (MJO; Madden and Julian 1971, 1972,
can influence weather and climate over remote places
1994), Kelvin waves (KWs), equatorial Rossby (ER)
including East Asia (Chang and Lau 1982; Lau and
waves, mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves, and trop-
Chang 1987), North America (Yanai and Tomita 1998;
ical depression (TD)-type disturbances (Takayabu and
Yang et al. 2002; Chan and Li 2004), and Europe
Nitta 1993).
(Neale and Slingo 2003).
The convectively coupled equatorial KWs are the
Convection over the SCS–MC region exhibits signifi-
leading eastward propagation modes near the equator,
cant multiscale variability, which remains a great chal-
with phase speeds around 10–15 m s21 (Kiladis et al. 2009)
lenge to the global atmospheric models, owing to the
and higher amplitudes over the MC (Roundy 2008). The
difficulties in representing convective processes in the
KWs can be embedded in the convective envelope of
tropical environment with contrasting land–ocean
MJO events as ‘‘building blocks’’ (Nakazawa 1988; Majda
et al. 2004; Mapes et al. 2006; Gottschalck et al. 2013) or
Corresponding author: Chung-Hsiung Sui, sui@as.ntu.edu.tw become active as an independent mode (Dunkerton and

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0471.1
Ó 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
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6978 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Crum 1995; Wheeler and Kiladis 1999). Significant
ocean–atmosphere interactions can occur during the
passage of the KWs (Baranowski et al. 2016a). The KWs
can significantly modulate the tropical convection on
synoptic scales (e.g., Takayabu 1991; Wheeler and Kiladis
1999; Wheeler et al. 2000; Wang and Fu 2007; Ventrice
et al. 2012) and monsoon onset (e.g., Flatau et al. 2003;
Straub et al. 2006). Previous studies also discussed the
relationships between KWs and TC genesis over the
western Pacific. Schreck and Molinari (2011) examined
cases of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in cyclonic potential
vorticity areas created between the superimposed west-
erlies brought by MJO and KW events and easterly trade
winds over the western North Pacific. With the passage of
strong KWs, the enhanced westerlies broke potential
vorticity areas into vortices, leading to TC genesis.
Schreck (2015) found that TC genesis over the western
North Pacific (WNP) is most favored in the half days after
the passage of KW, based on the statistics of 380 TCs. The
composite resembles the result of Schreck and Molinari
(2011) that westerlies associated with KWs offer cyclonic
vorticity for pre-TC vortex, and the convective phase of
the MJO provides a favorable background condition for
the interaction of KWs and TC genesis to take place.
Tropical waves can also interact with the prominent
diurnal variability over the MC and SCS. In MJO events,
the mean and diurnal amplitude of land precipitations
over the MC are enhanced 6 days ahead of the MJO
convection envelope, while the precipitation over the
coastal ocean is largely suppressed (Peatman et al. 2014;
Birch et al. 2016; Hung and Sui 2018). Baranowski et al.
(2016b) tracked the KW events passing MC using sat-
ellite observations to identify the scale interactions be-
tween the KWs and the diurnal cycle (DC) over the
major islands. For those KWs that arrive in phase with
the local DC, the KW-associated precipitation is en-
hanced by 3 times and the chance of successful KWs
traversing the MC is 40% higher, when compared to
the KWs that arrive at other times of the day. While the
results of Baranowski et al. (2016b) emphasize more the
effects of the local DC over the islands on the passing
KW, the modulation of the local DC by the KW, which
is less explored in previous studies, is also worth
investigating.
Large-scale conditions over the MC are also an im-
portant modulator of the onset of the Australian
summer monsoon (ASM), which climatologically oc-
curs around mid- to late December. The influence of
MJO on the onset of ASM has been identified in earlier
studies (Hendon and Liebmann 1990; Wheeler and
Hendon 2004; Evans et al. 2014). Wheeler and Hendon
(2004) investigated the ASM onset over the 28 years
from 1974/75 to 2001/02. Over 60% (17 years) of
VOLUME 32
the onset events occurred when the MJO was active
[i.e., with the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM)
index exhibiting amplitude .1], mostly during RMM
phases 4–7. When the MJO convective center and as-
sociated low-level westerlies appear in the vicinity of
northern Australia, they provide favorable conditions
for the transition of circulation and convective in-
stability. However, within the broad time range of
phases 4–7, or when the MJO is inactive, the actual
onset date of the ASM is likely modulated by other
phenomena at shorter time scales (Wheeler and
McBride 2005). While earlier studies have identified
the positive contribution by the KWs to the summer
monsoon onset over India (Flatau et al. 2003) and SCS
(Straub et al. 2006), the potential influence of the KWs
on the ASM onset is less discussed.
Most studies of the synoptic and subseasonal vari-
ability in the tropics focused on the activity of the MJO
(Waliser et al. 2006; Zhu et al. 2014). The month of
December 2016 presents a scenario to study the effect
of equatorial convectively coupled KWs over the SCS-
MC region, when they were active while the MJO
signal was absent. The goal of the present study is to
investigate the scale interactions of these KWs, and
their impacts on the rainfall variability of other syn-
optic events, the DC, and the onset of the Australian
monsoon. Section 2 describes the data and the meth-
odology. Section 3 presents the background conditions
in December 2016. Section 4 describes the identifica-
tion of the equatorial KWs and other tropical modes in
the region. Section 5 discusses the scale interactions
involving the KWs during this month, including the
interactions with other tropical disturbances, the
modulation of DC over MC, and the potential re-
lationship with the onset of the Australian summer
monsoon. The summary and concluding remarks are
given in section 6.
2. Data and methodology
The datasets used for this study can be categorized
into climatology and near-real-time observations. Cli-
matology data are used to produce anomalies on in-
terannual time scales and to filter out tropical waves.
Near-real-time data are processed for monitoring weather
events.
a. Observation and reanalysis datasets
For the climatological outgoing longwave radiation
(OLR) field, we use interpolated data obtained from
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) polar-orbiting satellite (Liebmann and Smith
1996). It has daily 2.58 3 2.58 resolution and the period
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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL.
TABLE 1. The range of planetary zonal wavenumber, period, and equivalent depth chosen for filtering waves and their corresponding
reference. Positive (negative) planetary zonal wavenumber indicates eastward (westward) propagation. MJO and MT do not follow the
dispersion curve so the equivalent depths are not calculated.
Tropical mode Planetary zonal wavenumber
Madden–Julian oscillation 1 to 5
(MJO)
Equatorial Rossby wave (ER) 21 to 210
Kelvin wave (KW) 1 to 14
Mixed Rossby–gravity/ 214 to 0
TD-type wave (MT)
between January 1979 and December 2013 was chosen
to compute OLR climatology. The OLR for December
2016 is obtained from NOAA Climate Data Record
(CDR) of OLR version 1.2 (Lee and NOAA CDR
Program 2011), which is estimated from High-Resolution
Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) radiance observa-
tions with a 2-day lag. It is given daily with 18 3 18 hori-
zontal resolution.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim, hereinaf-
ter ERA-Int; Dee et al. 2011) is utilized for zonal and
meridional wind field. The data assimilation system
producing ERA-Int is based on integrated forecast
system (IFS-Cy31r2, 2006 release). January 1979 to
December 2013 was also chosen as the period to
compute climatology to match that of the OLR. The
data of December 2016 are used to diagnose the syn-
optic evolution of wind fields and the circulation as-
sociated with the filtered waves during this month.
The horizontal grid resolution is 0.758 3 0.758 with 60
vertical levels from the surface up to 0.1 hPa. Anal-
ysis data are available every 6 h (0000, 0600, 1200,
1800 UTC).
Sea surface temperature (SST) was based on NOAA
0.258 daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Tem-
perature (OISST v2; Banzon et al. 2016), which is an
analysis including observations from other platforms
such as satellites, ships, and buoys. Here the OISST
dataset derived from only the Advanced Very High
Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is used. The clima-
tology SST is based on the period from December 1981
to December 2015.
We apply the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite pre-
cipitation estimates (version 1.0 CRT; Joyce et al.
2004; Xie et al. 2017) as rainfall data. It is derived by
combining satellite infrared and microwave sounders,
with calibration against surface gauge observations.
The temporal and spatial resolution of CMORPH
data used in the present study is 3 hourly and 0.258 3
0.258 in the latitude–longitude grid. The period for
6979
Period (days) Equivalent depth (m) Reference
30–96 — Wheeler and Kiladis (1999)
9.7–48 8–90 Wheeler and Kiladis (1999)
2.5–30 8–90 Wheeler and Kiladis (1999)
2.5–10 — Frank and Roundy (2006)
computing rainfall climatology is January 1998 to
December 2015.
b. Interannual anomaly and space–time wave filtering
We calculated the interannual time scale anomaly for
December 2016 by removing the long-term climatolog-
ical mean and the first three harmonics of the annual
cycle of the target variables.
To extract the convectively coupled waves from the
data of December 2016, we performed wavenumber–
frequency filtering (Wheeler and Kiladis 1999) to
daily OLR and 925-hPa wind anomaly of this month.
The long-term mean and annual cycle were removed
to obtain the anomaly as in the first and second step of
calculating the interannual anomaly. To retain the full
signal of the waves, as Kiladis et al. (2009) did, we do
not decompose the anomaly into the symmetric and
asymmetric component. The anomaly data in space
and time are then Fourier-transformed into zonal
wavenumber and frequency domain. Then, the Four-
ier coefficients falling outside the wavenumber and
frequency bands corresponding to each of the tropical
modes are set to zero. Tropical modes considered in
this study are MJO, KW, ER, and MRG/TD (referred
to jointly as MT) waves. The wavenumber and fre-
quency bands for each tropical modes are presented in
Table 1. MJO and TD-type disturbance do not fit the
linear wave solutions but are of prominent modes in
the real world (Madden and Julian 1994; Takayabu
and Nitta 1993; Wheeler and Kiladis 1999). The MRG
and TD-type can be considered together as the MT
band. Takayabu and Nitta (1993) found the transition
of MRG to TD-type disturbance near the western
Pacific. Frank and Roundy (2006) have found that the
TD-type disturbance is the most asymmetric modes
among other tropical waves and its amplitude is
largely confined in Northern Hemisphere. Further-
more, they also mentioned due to the evolution of
MRG to TD-type disturbance, any filter that designed
to separate these two waves suffers from contamina-
tion of the other wave type (Roundy and Frank 2004;
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6980 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 32

Frank and Roundy 2006). For this reason, we chose MT

instead of pure MRG waves (Matsuno 1966) in this study.
c. Diurnal cycle analysis
To analyze the diurnal variation of precipitation, the
dates are separated into convectively active and sup-
pressed conditions over the western part of MC (see
section 5c for details). Ling et al. (2019) pointed out that
the harmonic analysis may not accurately represent the
precipitation DC over the MC, especially over land
areas, because the developing phase can be shorter
(faster) than the decaying phase in the daily cycle. As
the data here only cover a month, the DC phase and
amplitude are determined using a simple method. The
composite means of the 3-hourly CMORPH precipita-
tion (r) for the two conditions are then calculated at the
eight local times at each grid. The diurnal amplitude is
the rainfall difference between the composite mean
daily maximum and minimum, while the diurnal peak
time is the local hour when the composite mean daily
maximum occurs.

3. Background conditions in December 2016

The long-term climatological mean OLR and 925-
hPa streamline for December (Fig. 1a) are character-
ized by the convergent circulation into the tropical
belt, and convection is confined over the Indian Ocean
(IO), MC, western Pacific (WP), intertropical conver-
gence zone (ITCZ), and South Pacific convergence
zone (SPCZ). In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), ra-
diative cooling over the Asian continent drives the
cold-core Siberian high, bringing the low-level north-
easterly winter monsoon along the coast of the Asian
continent toward the IO and MC. The convective ac-
tivity over the MC is the most vigorous in boreal winter
because of the monsoon–terrain interactions (Chang
et al. 2005). The low-level flow over the IO resembles a
Gill response. The cyclonic flow over northwestern
Borneo is the Borneo vortex, a prominent synoptic
feature in boreal winter (Johnson and Houze 1987).
Winds over the WP around 58–158N are dominant by
northeasterly trade winds. The mean rainfall distribu-
tion (Fig. 1b) is consistent with the mean OLR with
highest rainfall over coastal areas of SCS-MC, espe-
cially for the windward side such as the eastern Phil-
ippines, Vietnam, the Malay Peninsula, and western
Sumatra, generally as a result of the wind–terrain
interactions (Chang et al. 2016). For the SST clima-
tology in December (Fig. 1c), high SST (over 28.58C)
is confined around the equator within 108 latitudes
in the IO, MC, and WP, and maximizes in northern
Australia.
FIG. 1. December climatological mean (a) OLR (W m 22 ;
shaded) and 925-hPa streamlines, (b) CMORPH rainfall
(mm day21), and (c) SST (8C; shaded) and 925-hPa wind vectors
(m s21).
Figure 2 shows the interannual anomaly of convec-
tion, SST, and low-level circulation for December
2016. The ENSO condition for this month is in the La
Niña phase following the strong El Niño event in 2015/
16. The SST and convection anomaly over the equa-
torial region therefore exhibited features correspond-
ing to the La Niña condition, including warmer SST by
0.58–28C and generally more enhanced convection over
the tropical WP, SCS, and MC, as well as colder SST by
0.58–28C and suppressed convection over the equato-
rial IO (608–1008E).The anomalous Gill-type response
in low-level winds over the southeastern IO and SCS is
particularly strong this month. Anomalous north-
westerlies over the area south of the Sumatra and Java
islands (58–158S, 958–1108E) enhanced the climatolog-
ical northwesterly, which likely led to increased SST by
0.58–28C through the coastal Ekman effect. Farther

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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL. 6981

FIG. 2. Interannual component of the monthly anomalous (a) OLR (W m 22 ),

(b) precipitation (mm day21), and (c) SST (8C; shaded) and 925-hPa wind vectors (m s21) in
December 2016.

south in the IO (158–208S, 958–1108E) the anomalous
southeasterly was also in phase with the climatological
southeasterly. The cold SST anomaly over this region
is likely owing to the wind evaporation effects. Over
the SCS and WNP, the Gill-type response led to in-
terannually anomalous southwesterly winds at 925 hPa,
opposing the climatological northeasterly of the winter
monsoon.
Cold air outbreaks of the East Asia winter monsoon
were also not active in December 2016. We examined
the cold surge index in Lim et al. (2017), in which the
mean wind speed of the 850-hPa northeasterly wind over

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6982 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 32

FIG. 3. Hovmöller diagram in 58S–58N latitude band of (a) total OLR (shaded) superimposed by contours of 925-
hPa westerly wind (starts at 3 m s21; intervals at 2 m s21; only positive values are shown) and (b) total OLR (shaded)
superimposed by wavenumber–frequency filtered OLR for KW (white contour; only negative values are plotted;
intervals at 210 W m22) in December 2016. Black arrows show the propagation of the three KW events based on
the linear regression of the filtered OLR contour. The black horizontal bar on the top of (a) is the longitude range
for examining diurnal cycle, while the purple (red) vertical lines on the right y axis of (a) mark the date range of
convectively active (suppressed) phase over WMC (see Table 3 for detail).

the SCS (58–108N, 1078–1158E) needs to exceed
9.65 m s21 (0.75 standard deviations above the long-term
mean) and the maximum mean sea level pressure (MSLP)
over the northern SCS (188–228N, 1058–1228E) needs to
be above 1020 hPa. Such criteria were never satisfied
during December 2016 (figure not shown). Two periods
(5–7 and 16–18 December) briefly satisfied the MSLP
requirement and exhibited northeasterly conditions,
but the areal mean wind speed was only around 6 m s21,
indicating moderate events of a cold air outbreak. There-
fore the tropical–extratropical interaction associated with
the East Asian cold surge was not significant during
this month.
4. Convectively coupled tropical waves in
December 2016
a. Kelvin waves
Figure 3a shows the Hovmöller diagram of total OLR
and 925-hPa zonal wind from the IO to the WP in the
equatorial band (58S–58N) during December 2016.
There are three distinct large-scale deep convective
systems that emerged over the eastern IO, propagated
eastward through the MC to the WP, and dissipated at
around 1608E. Based on the wavenumber–frequency
filtered OLR (Fig. 3b), the three events are identified as
convectively coupled KWs (labeled as KW1 to KW3).
During KW1, which was short-lived and weak, the low-
level westerly wind was less coupled with deep convec-
tion. Leading the strong negative OLR anomaly of KW2
and KW3, the low-level westerly wind appeared (3–
5 m s21) and then amplified (7–9 m s21) while coupled
with the convection. KW2 is the strongest case in this
month, which was amplified over eastern IO on 10
December, propagated across the southern MC to
the WP, and dissipated over 1608E on 20 December.
Along the path of KW2, part of the unfiltered OLR
is lower than 190 W m 22 and the filtered OLR
reached 230 W m22. KW3 was enhanced over the
eastern IO on 26 December and propagated eastward to
the tropical WP.
We can also track the signals of KW2 and KW3 from
the sequence of weather maps across December 2016.
Figure 4 shows the horizontal evolution of unfiltered
OLR and streamline at 925 hPa every two days from 6 to
28 December. KW2 strengthened over the eastern IO on
10 December (Fig. 4c) after the enhanced westerly wind
over eastern IO, passing through the southern MC
during 12–18 December (Figs. 4b–g) and decayed at
1608E on 20 December. On 26 December, KW3
strengthened over the eastern IO (Fig. 4k) following the
enhanced westerly wind over the eastern IO as KW2 did
and propagated eastward.

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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL. 6983

FIG. 4. Sequential weather maps of OLR (shaded) and 925-hPa streamline at every two days between 6 and 28
Dec 2016. The white ellipses are filtered OLR anomaly of the KWs. Abbreviations: ‘‘V’’: TC Vardah; ‘‘BV’’:
Borneo vortex; ‘‘TD’’: tropical depression; ‘‘06U’’: TD 06U; ‘‘Y’’: TC Yvette; ‘‘N’’: TC Nock-ten.

The observed wave characteristics (zonal wavelength,
period, intrinsic and zonal phase speed) are listed in
Table 2. They are in general consistent with previous
research (Wheeler and Kiladis 1999; Kiladis et al. 2009).
The zonal phase speeds of the observed KWs in this
month (11.97–15.44 m s21) are somewhat slower than
the intrinsic one (15.81 m s21). The spatial map of the
filtered OLR and 925-hPa wind of KW2 on 8 December
is shown in Fig. 5a. The convective signal is confined
near the equator, and the circulation signal is mainly in
the zonal wind component. The pattern is consistent
with KW linear solution (Matsuno 1966) and previous
Kelvin wave composite study (Wheeler et al. 2000;
Kiladis et al. 2009).
We note that the MJO mode is insignificant in our
filtered results. This is further confirmed by examining
the RMM index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004), of which
the amplitude of the MJO is mostly lower than 1.0
through the month except marginally over 1.0 on 20 and
21 December (figure not shown). Therefore the KWs
are the dominant modes over the equatorial regions
between IO and WP in December 2016.

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6984 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 32

TABLE 2. Observed zonal wavelength, period, and zonal phase speed (m s21) for strong KW, ER, and MT waves in December 2016.
Each case is labeled in Figs. 3 and 6. Intrinsic zonal phase speed is calculated based on 25-m equivalent depth of their theoretical dispersion
relation (without basic state; Matsuno 1966).

Event Zonal wavelength (km) Period (day) Observed zonal phase speeda (m s21) Intrinsic zonal phase speed (m s21)
KW1 7783.3 8.4 11.64 15.81
KW2 10 007.1 11 11.67 15.81
KW3 9339.96 7.2 14.46 15.81
ER1 4400 16 23.28 21.54
ER2 4800 14 24.49 21.57
MT1 4200 4.4 210.49 26.02
MT2 3150 6 26.15 23.93
MT3 3150 6 26.31 23.93
MT4 4600 7.6 27.93 26.84
a
The observed zonal phase speeds were estimated from the longitude–time linear regression slopes of the filtered OLR anomaly in the
Hovmöller diagrams (Figs. 3b and 6, based on the contour of 210 W m22 for KWs and ERs and 215 W m22 for MTs).

b. ER and MT waves d MT4 started over 1508E on 20 December and TC

The spatial distribution of the filtered OLR and low-
level wind for the ER and MT band (Figs. 5b–f) shows
that their associated variabilities are most significant
over the off-equatorial regions, especially in the
Northern Hemisphere between 58 and 158N. These
waves can be summarized by the Hovmöller diagram
between 58 and 158N in Fig. 6. The total OLR and 925-
hPa zonal wind are dominated by westward-propagating
signals. After the wave filtering (contours in Fig. 6), we
can identify multiple events of ER and MT waves and
then track them on the spatial maps in Fig. 4, sequen-
tially, as follows:
d ER1 was initiated around 1008–1108E on 1 De-
cember. Based on Figs. 4a–d, as ER1 propagated
into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) on 6 December,
TC Vardah formed within its envelope (also see
Fig. 6) and eventually dissipated over India on
12 December.
d MT1 initiated on 6 December around 1308E. It
propagated from WP to SCS on 8 December and a
Borneo vortex was formed (Fig. 4b) when MT1 ter-
minated over southern SCS (Fig. 6).
d MT2 was a weak event, which appeared over the BoB
on 16 December and disappeared over the central IO
around 20 to 22 December (Figs. 4f–h).
d MT3 was initiated strongly on 16 December over
eastern Philippine (Fig. 4f). Although filtered OLR
of MT3 weakened over 1008E on 20 December
(Fig. 6), the associated convection and circulation can
be tracked on the weather map continuously as it
moved into the BoB (Figs. 4g–j).
d ER2 appeared over 1508E on 18 December and its
westward-propagating OLR signal weakened after
intersecting with that of MT4 around 1308E on
22 December.
Nock-ten formed in its envelope. MT4 and TC Nock-
ten eventually decayed over SCS on 28 December
(Figs. 4h,i).
Table 2 shows that the observed ER and MT waves
are faster than the intrinsic mode. The filtered OLR and
925-hPa wind for ER1 (Fig. 5b) and ER2 (Fig. 5c) re-
semble the n 5 2 ER (Matsuno 1966) in linear solution,
which has an antisymmetric pattern in its circulation.
MT1 (Fig. 5d) and MT4 (Fig. 5f) exhibit a TD-type
disturbance (Takayabu and Nitta 1993; Roundy and
Frank 2004), and the associated OLR anomaly is mainly
confined in NH, with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation
in phase with negative (positive) OLR, and with less
cross-equatorial meridional flow (Fig. 5f). MT2 and
MT3 (Fig. 5e) were associated with antisymmetric cir-
culation structures and cross-equatorial meridional
flows and their variabilities over northern equator were
stronger.
5. Scale interactions involving the KWs
a. The wave–wave interactions
The interactions between the KWs and the off-
equatorial waves were identified by combining the
equatorial 925-hPa westerly and filtered KW in Fig. 3a
with the off-equatorial OLR in the NH in Fig. 6, as
shown in Fig. 7. When the KW convective envelope in-
tersects with the off-equatorial wave signals, it indicates
that the KW and the westward-propagating waves ar-
rived at the same longitude. Although the OLR vari-
abilities of the westward-propagating waves were mostly
confined in the off-equatorial region, the anomalous
low-level winds can still influence the equatorial region,
as shown in Fig. 5, and their contribution to the equa-
torial westerly can be identified in the Hovmöller

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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL. 6985

FIG. 5. Filtered OLR (shaded) and 925-hPa wind field (vector) for (a) KW2 (ellipse),
(b) ER1 wave train (rectangle) and westerly wind (ellipse), (c) ER2 wave train (rectangle),
(d) MT1 and its cyclonic circulation (ellipse), (e) MT2 and MT3 wave train (rectangle),
and (f) MT4 (rectangle).

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6986 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 6. As in Fig. 3b, but for the 58–158N latitude band. The
contours are filtered OLR for ER (red) and MT (dark blue), with
solid (dashed) lines indicating negative (positive) values at in-
tervals of 10 W m22 for ER and 15 W m22 for MT.
diagram of Fig. 7. To confirm the occurrence of in-
teraction and to obtain the detailed evolution, the lo-
cation and propagation of the wave packets, enhanced
wind pattern, and synoptic disturbances around the in-
tersecting period were traced in the weather maps of
Fig. 4. Following this procedure, four events of scale in-
teractions involving the KWs were identified in December
2016.
The first interaction (I1) occurred around 8–10 De-
cember over the eastern IO (808–908E) where equatorial
westerlies/southwesterlies were enhanced by TC Var-
dah embedded in ER1 (see Figs. 4a,b and 5b). The en-
hanced equatorial westerlies over the terrain of Sumatra
favored the development of organized convection over
the west coast of Sumatra on 8 December. As the con-
vective center of KW2 approached Sumatra on 10 De-
cember, the convective signal of KW2 was strengthened
afterward (Figs. 3b and 4c–e). This enhancement likely
helped KW2 maintain a longer lifetime and propagated
farther east.
The second interaction (I2) occurred also during 8–10
December but over the SCS. As mentioned in section 3,
northeasterly from moderate cold air outbreak en-
tered SCS on 5–7 December (Fig. 4a). With the terrain
effect of the southern SCS basin, a Borneo vortex was
formed on 8 December (Fig. 4b) when MT1 contributed
to enhanced northeasterly winds over west coast of
Borneo (Fig. 5d). As the equatorial westerlies accom-
panied with KW2 propagated into MC on 10 December,
VOLUME 32
FIG. 7. A schematic figure explaining extratropical–tropical in-
teractions in December 2016. The thin black contours are u925
in 58S–58N (identical to Fig. 6), and the shading is the total OLR in
58–158N (identical to shading in Fig. 6). The smooth ellipses repre-
sent wave events based on the filtered OLR in Figs. 3b and 6 (blue:
KW, red: ER, dark blue: MT). The numbered star symbols indicate
the events of wave–wave interactions: *I1: TC Vardah in ER1 en-
hanced southwesterly winds and coastal convection over western
Sumatra / KW2 enhanced. *I2: MT1 over SCS / Borneo vortex 1
KW2 equatorial westerly / TD. *I3: KW2 1 WP trade wind 1
ER2 / MT4/TC Nock-ten. *I4: MT3 / enhanced westerlies and
convection over western Sumatra / terrain effect of Sumatra /
KW3 enhanced.
the Borneo vortex further intensified into a TD owing to
the enhanced shear vorticity (Figs. 4c,d). The north-
easterly wind from the cold air outbreak was not main-
tained during the intensification of the Borneo vortex,
indicating that the extratropical–tropical interaction did
not play a significant role with regard to I2. The un-
named TD eventually made landfall at Vietnam on
14 December (Fig. 4e).
The third interaction (I3) occurred during 18–20 De-
cember. As KW2 propagated to the WP (1508E) on
18 December, the associated equatorial westerlies and
the easterly trade wind produced low-level cyclonic
circulation, with enhanced convection (L in Fig. 4g). The
positive vorticity area over WP sustained, with the
contribution also from the circulation of ER2, and de-
veloped into MT4 and TC Nock-ten on 20–22 December
(Figs. 4h,i and 5f), which propagated westward and
made landfall at the Philippines on 26 December
(Fig. 4k), and then weakened after entering the SCS. In
the case study in Schreck and Molinari (2011), two TCs
developed in the breakdown of cyclonic potential
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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL. 6987

TABLE 3. Composite mean precipitation and diurnal cycle amplitudes over WMC and EMCa for the convectively active and suppressed
conditions of the KWs.b

WMC EMC
Land Ocean Land Ocean
Active WMC, suppressed EMC
Composite mean (mm day21) 10.6 12.4 6.3 5.6
Diurnal cycle amplitudes (mm day21) 22.5 23.5 15.6 13.5
Suppressed WMC, active EMC
Composite mean (mm day21) 6.9 7.5 12.0 12.8
Diurnal cycle amplitudes (mm day21) 15.3 15.5 24.0 24.1
a
Areas of WMC and EMC are shown in Fig. 8. DC amplitude is the difference between maximum and minim rainfall of the composite
mean DC.
b
The criteria of KW phases: Daily mean OLR over WMC is 0.5 standard deviation (0.5 3 12.5 W m22) above (below) the monthly mean
value (193.95 W m22). Active WMC, suppressed EMC (averaged OLR over WMC , 187.7 W m22): 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 23, 25, 26, and 27 Dec
(total of 9 days; purple lines in Fig. 3). Suppressed WMC, active EMC (averaged OLR over WMC . 200.2 W m22): 5, 6, 7, 14, 15, 16, 17,
18, 21, 29, and 30 Dec (total of 11 days; red lines in Fig. 3).

vorticity formed in the strip between equatorial westerly
and easterly trade winds. In their cases, the westerlies
were enhanced by the MJO and KWs together, and the
MJO also provided the convective envelope. In the case
of I3 here the westerlies and convection were mainly
contributed by the KWs.
The last interaction (I4) occurred during 20–26 De-
cember. The cyclonic circulation of MT3 led to the
equatorial westerlies onshore of the west coast of Su-
matra on 20–24 December (Figs. 4h–j), accompanied
with sustained coastal convection that was then coupled
to the circulation of KW3 and lead to the intensification
of KW3 after 26 December (Figs. 4k and 3a). The evo-
lution resembled the intensification of KW2 in I1, except
that the westerly winds and convection in the west of
Sumatra was induced by MT instead of ER.
b. Diurnal cycle in active and suppressed phases of
KWs
To analyze the modulation of the diurnal cycle of MC
by the KWs in December 2016, the dates were chosen
and composited according to the daily areal mean OLR
over the western part of the MC (WMC; 7.58S–7.58N,
958–1208E). The days when the daily areal mean OLR
is 0.5 standard deviations below the monthly mean
(,187.7 W m 22 ) represented the condition that the
WMC was convectively active and the eastern MC
(EMC; 7.58S–7.58N, 1208–1508E) was convectively
suppressed. Conversely, the days with mean OLR
above the monthly mean by 0.5 standard deviations
(.200.2 W m22) represented the condition that the
WMC was suppressed and the EMC was convectively
active. The dates composited in each condition are listed
in the footnote of Table 3 and marked on the vertical
axis of Fig. 3a on the right-hand side, and they are pri-
marily dominated by the phases of KWs. Figures 8a and
8d show the composite mean total precipitation and low-
level winds of the two scenarios, respectively. The con-
vectively active region exhibited extensive coverage of
precipitation and strong equatorial westerlies, while the
suppressed region exhibited limited and scattered pre-
cipitation and weak wind condition.
Figure 8b presents the amplitude of the composite DC
of precipitation for the convectively active WMC and
suppressed EMC, as well as the composite anomaly of
925-hPa wind. There was an anomalous cyclonic circu-
lation over the southern SCS/western Borneo, and DC
was active over most of the coastal ocean. DC amplitude
is strong especially the northwest coast of Borneo, as
well as on the islands over southwestern Borneo and
southern Sumatra. Over the suppressed EMC there
was a strong anomalous anticyclonic circulation of
WP/northwestern New Guinea. DC was only active over
the New Guinea Island and the nearshore coastal ocean,
as well as a limited area over WP around 1408E. The
distribution of the DC amplitude generally reflected the
composite total value in both active and suppressed
conditions. Figure 8c shows the DC peak time of
the same composite over locations with DC amplitude
$ 24 mm day21. Over land, the peak time in mountain-
ous areas occurred mostly in the late afternoon to early
evening (1400–2000 LT), and at midnight (0000–0400
LT) in some downwind plain areas. Over the coastal
ocean to the west of Borneo, a progressive phase shift in
DC can be found, with peak times at midnight (0000–
0400 LT) near shore and in the early morning (0400–
1000) offshore, features the ‘‘seaside coastal regime’’
described by Kikuchi and Wang (2008).
Figures 8e and 8f present the DC and anomalous
low-level winds for the condition of convectively sup-
pressed WMC and active EMC. The ocean in the north
of the New Guinea island was under the anomalous

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6988 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 32

FIG. 8. Composite mean (a) CMORPH precipitation (shaded; mm day21) and 925-hPa wind vectors (m s21),
(b) diurnal precipitation amplitude (shaded; mm day21), and (c) diurnal peak time (local hour) over areas with
diurnal amplitude $24 mm day21 when WMC exhibits convectively active conditions and EMC exhibits suppressed
conditions. (d)–(f) As in (a)–(c), but showing the composite mean when WMC exhibits suppressed conditions and
EMC exhibits active conditions. Vectors in (b) and (e) are 925-hPa anomalous wind relative to the monthly mean of
December 2016. The convectively active and suppressed phases are defined in Table 3. The left and right rectangle
boxes in (a) and (d) as well as the dashed vertical dashed lines in (b) and (e) mark the areas of WMC and EMC.

cyclonic flow, and strong DC occurred extensively
from coastal areas to open ocean, also with the pro-
gressive peak time from midnight to early morning.
The DC over the New Guinea island was also active.
Over the Banda Sea (08–58S) there were strong
anomalous westerly winds and enhanced composite
mean precipitation, but the contribution from the DC
was limited. Over the WMC, a weak anomalous anti-
cyclonic circulation and diminished precipitation were
seen over southern SCS. There were strong anomalous
northeasterly winds over eastern Borneo Island and
the Java Sea, the only regions with active DC in the
suppressed WMC.
Table 3 listed the mean DC amplitude over land and
ocean in WMC and EMC for the two composites.
Overall the DC was enhanced over the convectively
active region (22.5–24.1 mm day21), and weakened
over the suppressed region (13.5–15.6 mm day21),
without noticeable land–ocean contrast. The response
over the ocean is mainly over specific coastal regions
(i.e., west of Borneo and north of New Guinea). The
enhanced coastal organized convection may play an
important role during the scale interactions mentioned
in the last section, such as the intensification of the
Borneo vortex in I2, and the development of MT4 in I3.
Over the land, locations with active DC shifted be-
tween suppressed and active condition, with the
emergence of specific ‘‘hot spots,’’ likely in response to
the terrain effects under different background wind.
The pattern of DC under convectively active condition
over Borneo island and southern SCS resembled the
characteristics of the ‘‘strong westerly’’ regime re-
ported by Ichikawa and Yasunari (2006), including the
stronger amplitude over the northwestern part of the
island and the coastal propagating signals with en-
hanced cyclonic circulation associated with the Borneo

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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL. 6989

FIG. 9. Time series of the two Australian summer monsoon indices from 16 Nov 2016 to 30 Jan 2017. The red and blue lines are OLR and
850-hPa zonal wind, respectively, averaged over northern Australia and the Arafura Sea (28–158S, 1158–1508E), used by Hung and Yanai
(2004). The brown line is the AUSMI (850-hPa zonal wind averaged over 58–158S, 108–1308E) used by Kajikawa et al. (2010). The green
shading marks the onset period (see text in section 5c for definition).

vortex. Over southern Sumatra, the DC pattern is
consistent with the westerly wind regime in Yanase
et al. (2017): convection is initiated in the afternoon in
the central mountain range and then propagated
eastward to the eastern plain in the late evening by the
low-level westerly winds. However, we acknowledge
here that the sampling numbers in the above DC
analysis are limited (9 and 11 days in each compos-
ite), so the results should be interpreted more quali-
tatively and are subject to the interannual conditions of
this year. A more extensive climatological analysis on
this topic covering KW events in multiple years will be
carried out in the future.
c. The KW and Australian summer monsoon onset
The Australian summer monsoon (ASM) onset can be
defined using two commonly used indices, and Fig. 9
shows the time series of these indices from mid-
November 2016 through the end of January 2017.
Hung and Yanai (2004) used the OLR and 850-hPa
zonal wind averaged over northern Australia and the
Arafura Sea (28–158S, 1158–1508E). The onset day is
defined as the first day when averaged 850-hPa zonal
wind exceeds 2 m s21 and sustains for longer than
10 days, while the OLR is lower than 210 W m22 for at
least several days during the 10-day period. These cri-
teria were satisfied on 15 December 2016 (red and blue
lines in Fig. 9). Kajikawa et al. (2010) used the 850-hPa
zonal wind averaged over the southern MC to northern
Australia (58–158S, 1108–1308E) as the multi-time-scale
Australian summer monsoon index (AUSMI). The on-
set day based on this index features the first day after
1 November when the AUSMI turns positive and sus-
tains for longer than 5 days, provided that the AUSMI
must be positive in at least three pentads out of the sub-
sequent four pentads, and the accumulative four-pentad
mean AUSMI . 1 m s21. For 2016/2017 the AUSMI
signified a sharp and clear onset on 13 December 2016
(brown line in Fig. 9).
Both indices consistently indicate the ASM onset in
2016/17 took place around 13–15 December (green
shading in Fig. 9). The timing coincided with the passage
of KW2 over the MC. Before onset, the large-scale
conditions over northern Australia were prevailing
easterly winds and convectively suppressed (Figs. 4a–d).
As the convective center of KW2 moved from the WMC
to the EMC during 14–16 December. (Figs. 4e,f), the
accompanied equatorial westerlies were enhanced, with
convection developed particularly south of the equator
over the coastal ocean of southern MC and then east-
ward to the Arafura Sea. The interannually warmer SST
induced by the Gill-type low-level wind response asso-
ciated with the La Niña condition (Fig. 2c) over this area
also provided favorable conditions for convection. The
monsoon trough was established afterward, maintaining
the low-level westerly and organized convection over
northern Australia, which provided favorable condi-
tions leading to the formation of TD 06U and TC Yvette
on 18 December (Figs. 4g–j).
6. Summary and concluding remarks
This study examined the scale interactions over the
SCS and MC region involving the tropical convectively
coupled Kelvin waves in December 2016, a month dur-
ing which the KWs are the dominant mode over the
equator. From the interannual perspective, this month
was in a La Niña condition, with interannually stronger
convection over the MC and weaker northeasterly
Asian winter monsoon. The space–time filtering of
tropical wave modes revealed that the OLR variability
over the equatorial bands were mainly contributed by
three eastward propagating KW events, while the MJO
signal was insignificant through this month. The first
event was weak and less coupled. The second KW event
(KW2), with the leading strong equatorial westerly
coupled to deep convection on 8–10 December over the
eastern IO, was the strongest and most long-lasting one

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6990 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
among the three. The last event (KW3) of the month was
initiated and coupled on 22–24 December also over
eastern IO. Both KW2 and KW3 weakened and termi-
nated around 1508–1608E. Prominent westward propa-
gating variabilities over the off-equatorial regions in the
Northern Hemisphere (58–158N) were identified as the
equatorial Rossby waves and mixed Rossby–gravity/
TD-type waves.
By superimposing the evolution of the KWs with the
westward propagating waves, four events of interactions
over the SCS-MC region were identified. In two of these
interactions (I1 and I4), the circulation of the off-
equatorial waves (ER in I1 and MT in I4) strength-
ened the equatorial westerly wind onshore of the west
coast of Sumatra and led to more active coastal con-
vections. The coupling between the coastal convections
and the approaching KWs, which is likely a key process
in these interaction events, resulted in the enhance-
ments of the KW2 and KW3. The enhanced KW2 then
contributed to the formation of two tropical distur-
bances. The other two wave–wave interaction events (I2
and I3) led to formation of TD/TC. In I2, the Borneo
vortex over SCS was intensified into an unnamed TD as
the northeasterly winds associated with the MT1 and the
equatorial westerly winds associated with the KW2 en-
hanced the shear vorticity. In I3, as KW2 propagated to
the WP, the convergence of the equatorial westerlies
with the northeasterly trade winds, as well as the cy-
clonic circulation of ER2, provided favorable conditions
for the development of MT4 and later TC Nock-ten that
made landfall at the Philippines.
As the KWs propagated through the MC, the local
diurnal cycle of precipitation over both land and ocean
was enhanced in the region within the anomalous cy-
clonic flow associated with the KW convection center.
The ocean response to KW was mostly in the appear-
ance of the ‘‘coastal regime’’ during the convectively
active condition, in which the DC peak time varied
progressively from midnight at the near shore to morn-
ing in the off shore/open ocean. The west coast of the
Borneo Island and the north coast of the New Guinea
Island were the most responding areas in the WMC and
EMC, respectively, and the enhanced coastal convection
organization may also provide a favorable condition for
the development of the disturbances during the scale
interactions of I2 and I3. The modulation of DC over
land by the KW convectively active/suppressed condi-
tions was a shift in the DC hot spots depending on the
different background winds and the terrain effects, in
addition to the enhanced amplitude.
Last, the passage of KW2 over MC coincided and con-
tributed positively to the onset of the Australian summer
monsoon, which occurred around 13–15 December 2016.
VOLUME 32
The KW2 provided the low-level westerlies and initial
convections over the southern coasts of MC and the Ara-
fura Sea. The large-scale westerlies, the organized con-
vection, and the monsoon trough quickly were established
and maintained, likely facilitated also by the interannually
warmer SST over this region. The onset was followed by
the formation of TD 06U and TC Yvette within the posi-
tive vorticity of the monsoon trough areas.
Our analysis for December 2016 showcases that the
convectively coupled Kelvin waves can participate in
various types of scale interactions in the SCS and MC,
and lead to formation and intensification of synoptic
events in the tropics and monsoonal regions. With the
absence of the MJO signal, the KWs and the associated
scale interactions provide useful references for weather
monitoring and forecast of this region. We also note that
the diurnal coastal convection over specific regions can
play a key role in these scale interactions, owing to the
shape of the coastlines and orientation of the terrain.
The comparable size of the major islands/ocean basins in
the SCS-MC area to the scale of the anomalous hori-
zontal circulation of the KWs may also be a factor
(Baranowski et al. 2016b). The west coast of Sumatra
can be a favorable location of KW enhancement with
onshore low-level winds, while over the southern SCS/
western coast of Borneo, northern coast of New Guinea,
and southern coast of Java coastal organized convection
becomes active under synoptic-scale cyclonic circulation
and thus potentially favors the intensification of synoptic
disturbances. The analysis of the diurnal cycle in the
present study only covered a month. In the future, a
more extensive climatological analysis focusing on the
responses of regional DC to the passage of the KWs can
be carried out to obtain more robust features, and the
DC cycle can also be identified using the more sophis-
ticated method suggested by Ling et al. (2019). Also, in
the present study the observed phase speeds of the
tropical waves are computed by the simple linear re-
gression of filtered OLR anomaly. Ling et al. (2014) and
Zhang and Ling (2017) provided a more advanced ob-
jective tracking method for MJO based on statistics of
precipitation anomaly. It is worth exploring how a sim-
ilar procedure can be developed and applied to track the
other wave types in the future.
The influences of scale interactions and tropical–
extratropical interactions on regional precipitation
over the SCS and MC are the key scientific themes of
two international field campaigns that took place after
2016, namely, the Years of the Maritime Continent
(YMC, 2017–19; science plan: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/
ymc/docs/YMC_SciencePlan_v2.pdf) and the South
China Sea Two-Island Monsoon Experiment (SCSTIMX,
2016–19; Lin et al. 2016; https://scstimx.as.ntu.edu.tw/). In
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15 OCTOBER 2019 CHEN ET AL.
the future, analyses similar to those in the present study
will be carried out for the winter of 2017 and 2018 to in-
vestigate the interannual variability, with the incorporation
of the intensive measurements from these two field
campaigns.
Acknowledgments. This work is supported by Ministry
of Science and Technology of Taiwan (MOST107-2119-
M-002-053; WT Chen: MOST107-2119-M-002-024 and
MOST108-2111-M-002-004; SP Hsu, CH Sui, and YH
Tsai: MOST105-2119-M-002-025, MOST106-2111-M-
002-003-MY2, and MOST108-2111-M-002-016). We
thank Professor Chi-Pei Chang and the three anony-
mous reviewers for the insightful comments on the
manuscript. The observation and reanalysis data sets
were downloaded from the following sources: NOAA
Interpolated OLR (1979–2013; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
psd/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html; accessed 15 De-
cember 2018), NOAA CDR OLR v1.2 (December 2016;
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.
interp.html; accessed 15 December 2018), NOAA OISST v2
(1981–2015 and December 2016; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html; accessed
15 December 2018), ERA-Int (1979–2016; https://apps.
ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/levtype5sfc/; ac-
cessed 9 May 2019), and CMORPH v1.0 CRT 3-hourly
precipitation data (1998–2015 and December 2016; ftp://
ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/CMORPH_V1.0/CRT/
0.25deg-3HLY/; accessed 9 January 2019).
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