1 SCHOOL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS

MID-TERM EXAM QUESTIONS – 20202

Course: Probability and Statistics (MI2026). Time: 60 minutes

Question 1 (2 points) A rare disease exists with which only 2 in 1000 is

affected. There is a test for the disease that a correct positive result (patient
actually has the disease) occurs 95% of the time while a false positive result
(patient does not have the disease) occurs 1% of the time.
a) What is the prior distribution of the disease and the posterior distribution
of the disease given the positive result?
b) Is the test good? Explain that counter-intuitive result.
Question 2 (2 points) A student has to make a choice between two topic
A or B to write his final thesis. There are 4 and 6 essays in the topic A and
B, respectively. It is mandatory that students need to pass at least half the
number of required essays to reach his final thesis. Previous statistics shows
that each essay in topic A has 8% failure and topic B has that figure of 4%.
Which topic should that student choose and why?
Question 3 (4 points) Suppose that a bivariate random variable (X, Y )
has joint density function
{2
(x + 2y) if (x, y) ∈ [0, 1] × [0, 1],
fX,Y (x, y) = 3
0 otherwise.
a) Find the probability P (X < Y ).
b) Find the marginal distributions of X and the conditional distribution of
Y given X = 1/2.
c) Find the expectation of X and Y .
d) Find the correlation coefficient between X and Y .
Question 4 (2 points) Assume that the lifetime X of an electronic device
follows the exponential distribution and it is expected to last 100 hours.
(a) What is probability that the device lasts longer than 150 hours.
(b) If the device has lasted 150 hours then what is the probability that it will
last at least 100 hours more? Does it depend on how long the device has lasted?

Students full name: ............................................................

 2 SCHOOL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS

MID-TERM EXAM QUESTIONS – 20202

Course: Probability Theory (MI2026). Time: 60 minutes

Question 1 (2 points) A rare disease exists with which only 5 in 1000 is

affected. There is a test for the disease that a correct positive result (patient
actually has the disease) occurs 96% of the time while a false positive result
(patient does not have the disease) occurs 2% of the time.
a) What is the prior distribution of the disease and the posterior distribution
of the disease given the positive result?
b) Is the test good? Explain that counter-intuitive result.
Question 2 (2 points) A student has to make a choice between two topic
A or B to write his final thesis. There are 6 and 4 essays in the topic A and
B, respectively. It is mandatory that students need to pass at least half the
number of required essays to reach his final thesis. Previous statistics shows
that each essay in topic A has 3% failure and topic B has that figure of 6%.
Which topic should that student choose and why?
Question 3 (4 points) Suppose that a bivariate random variable (X, Y )
has joint density function
{2
(2x + y) if (x, y) ∈ [0, 1] × [0, 1],
fX,Y (x, y) = 3
0 otherwise.
a) Find the probability P (X > Y ).
b) Find the marginal distributions of Y and the conditional distribution of
X given Y = 1/2.
c) Find the expectation of X and Y .
d) Find the correlation coefficient between X and Y .
Question 4 (2 points) Assume that the lifetime X of an electronic device
follows the exponential distribution and it is expected to last 200 hours.
(a) What is probability that the device lasts longer than 150 hours.
(b) If the device has lasted 150 hours then what is the probability that it will
last at least 100 hours more? Does it depend on how long the device has lasted?

Students full name: ............................................................