Economics & Strategy Weekly
A 2020 US Slowdown (near-recession) Scenario
DBS Group Research
Taimur Baig
Chief Economist
taimurbaig@dbs.com
Samuel Tse
Economist
samueltse@dbs.com
Please direct distribution queries to
Violet Lee +65 68785281 violetleeyh@dbs.com
• We see a sharp growth slowdown in the US in
2020. As per our scenario, growth could slow
to zero (if not outright negative) by 4Q 2020
• What would drive this? (i) negative fiscal
impulse (as stimulus expires), (ii) drag from
trade wars on investment and exports, (iii)
policy uncertainty ahead of the US
presidential elections, (iv) still-high inflation
preventing the Fed from cutting rates, and (v)
spill-over from weak non-US demand, hurt by
rising rates and tight USD liquidity
• It is hard to price this scenario; the yield curve
would likely steepen in 2019 and then begin
flattening in 2020; the USD would strengthen
first and then soften; inflation will peak but
remain uncomfortably high for the Fed
• A beneficiary of a sharp US slowdown or
technical recession in 2020 could be the large,
domestic demand oriented emerging market
economies, which would still register decent
growth while catching a breather from a
peaking dollar and rates
19 October 2018
US growth could be sharply lower by 2020, but that may
not be a bad thing
At first glance, this may appear to be an odd time to talk
about an impending growth slowdown in the US.
Presently, real GDP is expanding robustly (Atlanta Fed’s
Nowcast has been tracking around 4% since June),
inflation is modest (latest prints show core PCE at 2% and
headline at 2.3%), wages are picking up gradually
(average weekly earnings growth has been over 3% so far
this year), the Fed is hiking as per expectations, and
business surveys reflect buoyant confidence. Trade wars,
oil price increase, mid-term elections, rising rates, and a
strong dollar have not dented the momentum of the
world’s largest economy. At least not yet.
Indeed, we think that near-term downsides to the US
economy are minimal. Labour market tightness, wage
upside, fiscal stimulus (tax cut, farm subsidy, defence
spending), and strong business sentiment will likely to
keep growth comfortably in the 2.0-3.0% range next year,
in our view. The chance of wage and inflation surprising
on the upside is rising, but we don’t see anything
alarming in the pipeline. Fiscal slippage concerns are real,
and the supply of treasuries has ballooned, but the gap
between supply and demand does not appear glaring as
long-term rates have not galloped ahead of Fed policy
tightening so far.
We therefore see 2019 growth remaining impressive by
historical standards, averaging 2.5% for the year, with
core inflation nudging up toward 2.5%, keeping the USD
strong, pushing the 10-year yield to over 3.5%, and
allowing the Federal Reserve to keep hiking policy rates
at the rate of one per quarter. This will take place
regardless of likely criticism from the White House, in our
view, as the Fed will be keen to assert its independence.
But a year from now, as the fourth quarter of 2019
comes along, we expect economic conditions to become
challenging along multiple dimensions:
• After two years of strong support, fiscal impulse will
likely turn negative in 2020. We think it will become
progressively difficult to come up with further fiscal
relaxation through legislative initiatives by then.
Refer to important disclosures at the end of the report
Weekly
Having stimulated the economy through record fiscal
deficits and stimuli (tax cuts and defence spending
increases), the political room for additional
measures will exhausted by then, in our view. This is
especially likely as the 2020 presidential election
nears, and the legislature remains divided (we
expecting the House to swing to the Democratic
party in next month’s mid-term elections).
Strong growth now; a slowdown in 2020
Consumption Investment
4.0%
Net exports Government
GDP
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
• China-US battles will likely transcend trade wars and
spill over into geopolitical tension, but the key
economic drag will stem from assorted uncertainties
and cost increases associated with tariffs and other
trade restriction measures. The full impact of the
resulting recalibration will be felt from 2020 onward,
and it will be a net negative, in our view. We are
forecasting a slowdown in both investment and
exports in 2020.
• In addition to likely challenges with fiscal and trade
wars, we see it as quite plausible that both the
economy and markets will struggle with looming
political and policy uncertainties as the 2020
presidential elections loom. This could readily hurt
consumer and business sentiments.
• Given the prevailing tightness in the US labour
market, wages will continue to rise through 2019,
and the momentum could well last through the
following year, even as growth begins to slow.
Headline and core inflation pressures would
19 October 2018
therefore remain high, making it difficult for the Fed
to relent. The problem for the Fed would be that the
level of output (not delta) and the prevailing
wage/price dynamics will make it nearly impossible
to ease policy in 2020. With high rates and tight
liquidity in place, and having grown well above
potential, it will take fairly small shocks for the
economy to experience a sharp slowdown in growth
or an outright (mild) contraction.
Opposing direction of unemployment and wages
9.0%
Unemployment rate
8.0%
7.0% Avg Weekly earnings growth
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
• Finally, given that a very large number US companies
derive a bulk of their earnings from the rest of the
world, external demand considerations will come
into play sooner or later. Hurt by rising rates and
tight USD liquidity, as well as difficulties around trade
wars, growth in emerging markets will likely struggle,
which will in turn spill back into weak international
sales and profits for US companies by 2020.
It is hard to price this scenario; the yield curve would
likely steepen in 2019 and then begin flattening in 2020;
the USD would strengthen first and then soften; inflation
will peak but remain uncomfortably high for the Fed. In
the following forecast table, we illustrate this contrasting
dynamic between 2019 and 2020.
What are the risks to this scenario? We fear that the
chance of wages and inflation remaining benign, a scaling
back of Fed policy normalisation if markets sell off (so-
called “Powell Put”), or further fiscal support in the
pipeline are rather low.
Page 2
Weekly 19 October 2018

In contrast, the chance of the Fed feeling compelled to US forecast summary

push up policy rates above the neutral rate given that
output is well above potential has risen (this possibility 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
has been flagged by a number of FOMC members in
Real GDP growth, 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.5
recent months). Inflation could readily surprise on the
yoy%, ave
upside as oil, tariffs, and wages compress margins and
Headline inflation, 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.5
gives producers ample reasons to raise prices. yoy%, eop
Core PCE inflation, 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.0
We consider the decision by Fed chairman Powell to yoy%, eop
hold a press conference after every policy meeting from Monetary policy 1.50 2.50 3.50 3.50
now on, as opposed to once per quarter, to be rate, %, eop
significant. Doubling the number of times he gets to USD per EUR, 1.16 1.12 1.10 1.15
explain the central bank’s decision to the markets and the eop

population is a strategy to attain greater policy flexibility, 10-year yield, 2.40 3.20 3.60 3.20
%, eop
including the option to hike more than once a quarter, if
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
needed. In our assessment of risks, this is more likely than
a Fed relent. The timing of curve steepening and
Taimur Baig
flattening would also come forward in this scenario
(relative to our baseline).

Silver lining

A beneficiary of a sharp slowdown or technical US

recession in 2020 could be the large, domestic demand
oriented emerging market economies, which would still
register decent growth while catching a breather from a
weakening dollar and peaking rates. Brazil, China, India,
Indonesia, the Philippines, Russia, and Vietnam are in this
camp, in our view. Indeed, having grown at well above
potential rate for a few years on the back of an
unsustainable fiscal stimulus, we think that it will
probably be healthy for the US to undergo a temporary
and mild correction.

Page 3
Weekly
Strategy
FX: Europe & Asia under pressure
Global markets have found themselves painted into a
corner again. The US dollar is well underpinned by a
strong US economy keeping Fed hikes intact. Asia and the
Eurozone have not able to fend off growth worries
fanned by Trump’s trade policies and higher USD funding
costs. Apart from external pressures, Europe is
preoccupied with unity challenges from Italy and Brexit,
while Asia confronts difficult policy choices between
maintaining financial stability and supporting growth.
The euro is vulnerable after having fallen below 1.15.
Speculators have scope to add more to their recently
established net short euro positions. They have started to
fret about the unity of the single market from Italy’s
intransigence to defy Brussels/market in pushing through
a wide budget deficit. Across the English Channel, the
British pound is set to depreciate below 1.30 again on
more uncertainties into the deadline to achieve a Brexit
deal in November-December. Both Italy and the UK share
a common dilemma – they can achieve a compromise
with the EU or their own political parties, not both.
Asian currencies are on the defensive again. This was
best reflected by the depreciation in the South Korean
won after the Bank of Korea signalled a possible dovish
hike in November. In downgrading its growth forecasts
amidst a stable and benign outlook, the BOK’s priority has
shifted from cushioning growth from global trade risks to
safeguarding financial stability. Raising rates will help to
address 1) the easy monetary policy blamed for fuelling
household debt to record levels; and 2) preventing a
further widening in the positive US-Korean rate
differentials from leading to potential capital outflows.
Expectations have increased for the Chinese yuan to
depreciate towards its psychological 7 level against the
USD. The rise in central parity rate above 6.90 into and
after US Currency Report has not gone unnoticed.
Today’s China GDP report will be closely watched to
affirm the need for more reductions in the required
reserve ratio to cushion a slowing economy from
escalated trade tensions. Rating agencies have started
pay more attention to corporate debt on signs that
deleveraging has taken a back seat to supporting growth.
Philip Wee
19 October 2018
Rates: Tweaking US, SG and HK forecasts for 2019
Worries about rising rates were well-founded this year.
Our USD, SGD and HKD rates forecasts were generally
on point and USD rates rose to price in a more
aggressive Fed, tighter labour markets and higher
inflation expectations. We have tweaked our forecasts
slightly for 2019 (see Forecast table in the previous
section), keeping to our view of four Fed hikes for the
year. With 10Y US yields at 3.20% (up by 80bps for the
year), we believe that the bulk of the rise in 10Y UST
yields may already be behind us and see a grind higher to
3.60% in 2019. USD rates would probably peak in 2019 in
line with US economic activity. Yields are likely to ease
somewhat once a slowdown (on the back of fading fiscal
stimuli) gets reflected in late 2020. On balance, we see
scope for modest curve steepening into mid-2019 and
flattening thereafter. Our 3M Libor numbers have been
shaded modestly lower even as our Fed projections did
not change. This is done to reflect tighter Libor-OIS and
Libor-Fed funds spread assumptions in the coming
quarters.
Our short-term SGD rates forecasts are nudged lower
for the immediate few quarters, reflecting the two
rounds of monetary tightening that the Monetary
Authority of Singapore (MAS) has undertaken this year.
With an estimated SGDNEER slope of 1%, this would
automatically put more downward pressures on SORs
and Sibors vis a vis Libors. The MAS statement appears to
be modestly hawkish and there is the possibility that the
slope may be steepened further in 2019. To be sure, this
is not a done deal. Much depends on how high-frequency
data plays out. Notably, the US-China trade war has not
led to any discernible impact on Singapore (yet) and
inflation appears to be on the high side. If these dynamics
maintain in 2019, another round of tightening would be
in the offing. We continue to see SGD rates
outperformance versus USD rates in the coming
quarters.
Eugene Leow
Page 4
Weekly 19 October 2018

Equities: Hong Kong retailers to benefit from better connecting the 3 regions are expected to start
transport links with China commissioning in late October.
With a higher number of mainland tourists visiting HK,
A few leading retailers based in Hong Kong (HK) have
local retailers should benefit to a good extent. Many
issued their latest operating data. Amongst the segments
visitors will somehow ride on HK’s tax-free shopping and
that capture a high proportion of PRC tourist sales,
purchase some merchandise, be it a lip stick, or more
major jewellery retailers continued to outperform the
expensive products such as jewelleries & watches for
overall retail market and sustained double-digit same-
more tax savings. We believe better transport links with
store sales growth (SSSG). Cosmetics retailing, however,
China driving mainland tourist arrivals and retail sales is
was showing a slower momentum, partly due to the
a medium-to-long term theme that will support the
latter’s relatively higher correlation with RMB trends and
sector. In the near term, the major concern is on overall
consumer sentiment.
consumer sentiment given the latest global market crash.
The outlook for key jewellery retailers should remain
broadly positive, as they continue to see good support
from wedding-related sales that are more resilient in Recovery in inbound tourism has supported retail sales
nature. Gold sales in HK/Macau have been robust during
recent months. The RMB depreciation this year, the Tourist arrivals, retail sales value and rent
lower gold price, and rising uncertainties on the % (YOY) % (YOY)
40 8
escalating trade war between China and the US might Retail shops rental (RHS)
have also led to a higher tendency for customers to 30 Visitor arrivals 6
purchase more gold. Retail sales value
20 4
On the other hand, we stay watchful on the sales
10 2
momentum of cosmetics retailers. Sales from major
retailers were flattish. This could be largely attributable 0 0
to the mega typhoon which saw sales down 20% during
-10 -2
the typhoon week, and sales during the latest golden
week (1-7 Oct 18) just scored 7.4% growth for HK/Macau, -20 -4
which were below expectations in our view. The bright
-30 -6
spot is in its stronger demand from PRC tourists vs. Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18
consumption from locals. Management also stays
hopeful from positive effects of the Greater Bay Area in
the medium-term.
The 26-km HK section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-HK Joanne Goh
Express Rail Link runs from West Kowloon in HK to the
boundary of HK and Shenzhen inaugurated in Sep 2018.
Aside from shortening the travel time between HK and
Shenzhen (Futian) to only 14 minutes (versus 45-60
minutes using existing facilities: e.g. train, bus or private
car), the Express Rail Link will also connect with the
25,000-km National High-speed Railway Network in
Mainland China, thus significantly reducing
transportation time between HK and the major cities of
China. Our sensitivity analysis also suggests, under
normal conditions, the Express Rail Link that connects
HK to China’s High-Speed Railway could bring more than
3 million additional mainland visitors in its first year of
operation. Meanwhile, the HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge

Page 5
Weekly 19 October 2018

Credit: Contrasting geopolitical developments Highlights of the week:

We expect sentiment in the Asian credit markets to SGD rates have outperformance potential
remain weak in the near term and investors largely India chart book – Volatility overshadows growth
sidelined given continued volatility in broader markets. Indonesia: Easing some pressure
Over the past week, secondary market spreads held up
relatively well despite the volatility seen in equity
markets. Primary market issuance was confined largely to
investment grade and quasi-sovereign issuers. A key
development was the missed repayment by a Chinese
solar company on a USD denominated bond, in a
reminder of rising credit stress in the region.

Outside Asia, Turkey and Saudi Arabian credits saw

contrasting fortunes on geopolitical developments.
Turkish bonds reacted positively to the release of US
pastor Andrew Brunson on 12 October, which is a
significant step in de-escalation of US-Turkey tensions.
Taking advantage of the favourable market conditions,
the Turkish sovereign issued USD2bn of 5Y notes at 7.5%
with an order book of around USD6bn another significant
development given concerns over Turkey’s market
access. That said, given that risk remain over Turkey from
an economic perspective, we prefer not to chase the rally
at this stage (see Macro Strategy dated 15 October).

In contrast, Saudi Arabian credit spreads widened on the

back of allegations of the Saudi authorities’ involvement
in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. We expect
spreads to remain under pressure (potentially wider
further) until there is clarity on the ongoing
investigations.

Neel Gopalakrishnan

Page 6
Weekly 19 October 2018

Key Forecasts
GDP growth, % YoY CPI inflation, % YoY, ave
2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2016 2017 2018f 2019f
China 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.2
Hong Kong 2.0 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.0 2.5
India* 8.0 7.1 6.7 7.4 4.9 4.5 3.6 4.7
Indonesia 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 3.5 3.8 3.6 4.0
Malaysia 4.2 5.9 4.7 4.5 2.1 3.9 1.3 2.5
Philippines** 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.5 1.3 2.9 5.0 4.9
Singapore 2.0 3.6 3.4 3.0 -0.5 0.6 0.7 1.8
South Korea 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.8
Taiwan 1.4 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.4 0.6 1.3 1.0
Thailand 3.2 3.9 4.5 4.2 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6
Vietnam 6.2 6.8 6.4 6.6 2.7 3.5 3.6 3.8
Eurozone 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 0.2 1.5 1.4 1.4
Japan 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0
United States*** 1.5 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.0
* refers to year ending March ** new CPI series *** eop for CPI inflation

Policy interest rates, eop

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
China* 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
India 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.50
Indonesia 4.25 4.75 5.75 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.50
Malaysia 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Philippines 3.00 3.50 4.50 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.50 5.50
Singapore** 1.40 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.15 2.40 2.40 2.65
South Korea 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00
Taiwan 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.50
Thailand 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.00
Vietnam*** 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.50 6.50 6.75 6.75
Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
United States 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50
* 1-yr lending rate; ** 3M SOR ; *** prime rate

Exchange rates, eop

Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
China 6.28 6.62 6.87 6.95 6.90 6.85 6.80 6.75
Hong Kong 7.85 7.85 7.83 7.85 7.84 7.83 7.82 7.81
India 65.2 68.5 72.5 73.0 73.5 74.0 74.5 75.0
Indonesia 13728 14330 14901 15050 15100 15150 15200 15250
Malaysia 3.86 4.04 4.14 4.24 4.22 4.20 4.18 4.16
Philippines 52.2 53.4 54.0 54.5 55.0 55.5 56.0 56.5
Singapore 1.31 1.36 1.37 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 1.38
South Korea 1064 1115 1110 1200 1190 1180 1170 1160
Thailand 31.2 33.0 32.3 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2
Vietnam 22775 22938 23320 23350 23400 23450 23500 23550
Australia 0.77 0.74 0.72 0.68 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.72
Eurozone 1.23 1.17 1.16 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16
Japan 106 111 114 115 114 113 112 111
United Kingdom 1.40 1.32 1.30 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.29
Australia, Eurozone and United Kingdom are direct quotes

Page 7
Weekly 19 October 2018

Rates forecasts
2018 2019
Q1a Q2a Q3a Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
US 3m Libor 2.31 2.34 2.40 2.70 2.95 3.20 3.45 3.70
2Y 2.27 2.53 2.82 2.90 3.05 3.20 3.35 3.50
10Y 2.74 2.86 3.06 3.20 3.30 3.50 3.60 3.60
10Y-2Y 47 33 24 30 25 30 25 10
Japan 3m Tibor 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
2Y -0.13 -0.12 -0.11 -0.10 -0.08 -0.05 -0.03 0.00
10Y 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20
10Y-2Y 18 15 24 20 18 15 13 10
Eurozone 3m Euribor -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.30 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00
2Y -0.60 -0.67 -0.52 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
10Y 0.50 0.30 0.47 0.80 1.00 1.15 1.25 1.35
10Y-2Y 110 97 99 90 100 105 105 105
Indonesia 3m Jibor 5.36 7.10 7.35 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
2Y 5.51 7.58 7.70 7.70 7.80 7.90 7.95 8.00
10Y 6.68 7.80 8.12 8.30 8.40 8.50 8.55 8.60
10Y-2Y 117 22 42 60 60 60 60 60
Malaysia 3m Klibor 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
3Y 3.45 3.62 3.60 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85
10Y 3.94 4.20 4.07 4.30 4.35 4.40 4.45 4.50
10Y-3Y 50 58 47 45 50 55 60 65
Philippines 3m PHP ref rate 4.08 4.01 4.87 4.90 5.15 5.30 5.30 5.30
2Y 4.16 4.79 6.20 5.40 5.55 5.70 5.70 5.70
10Y 6.00 6.41 7.39 6.80 6.90 7.00 7.00 7.00
10Y-2Y 184 162 120 140 135 130 130 130
Singapore 3m Sibor 1.45 1.52 1.64 1.85 2.10 2.30 2.55 2.70
2Y 1.79 1.96 1.95 2.05 2.20 2.30 2.45 2.50
10Y 2.29 2.53 2.50 2.65 2.70 2.85 2.90 2.90
10Y-2Y 50 57 55 60 50 55 45 40
Thailand 3m Bibor 1.57 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.85 2.10 2.35 2.60
2Y 1.32 1.69 1.89 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
10Y 2.40 2.58 2.80 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.00
10Y-2Y 107 89 91 110 100 90 80 60
China 1 yr Lending rate 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
3Y 3.56 3.32 3.19 3.30 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70
10Y 3.75 3.48 3.63 3.70 3.75 3.80 3.85 3.90
10Y-3Y 19 16 44 40 35 30 25 20
Hong Kong 3m Hibor 1.21 2.10 2.28 2.40 2.65 2.90 3.05 3.20
2Y 1.42 1.90 2.25 2.35 2.60 2.85 3.00 3.15
10Y 1.99 2.25 2.47 2.60 2.75 3.00 3.10 3.15
10Y-2Y 57 34 23 25 15 15 10 0
Taiwan 3m Taibor 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.74
2Y 0.45 0.50 0.51 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68
10Y 0.99 0.93 0.87 0.95 1.05 1.15 1.20 1.25
10Y-2Y 54 43 36 35 43 51 54 57
Korea 3m CD 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.90 1.90 2.15
3Y 2.22 2.12 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25
10Y 2.62 2.56 2.36 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.75 2.80
10Y-3Y 41 43 35 40 45 50 55 55
India 3m Mibor 7.48 7.36 7.60 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55
2Y 6.85 7.54 7.84 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85
10Y 7.40 7.90 8.02 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.50
10Y-2Y 55 36 18 5 15 25 35 45
%, eop, govt bond yield for 2Y and 10Y, spread bps

Page 8
Weekly 19 October 2018

Group Research
Economics & Strategy

Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - G3 & Asia
+65 6878-9548 taimurbaig@dbs.com

Nathan Chow Ma Tieying

Strategist - China & Hong Kong Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan
+852 3668-5693 nathanchow@dbs.com +65 6878-2408 matieying@dbs.com

Masyita Crystallin, Ph.D. Radhika Rao

Economist – Indonesia & Philippines Economist – Eurozone, India & Thailand
+62 2988-4003 masyita@dbs.com +65 6878-5282 radhikarao@dbs.com

Joanne Goh
Irvin Seah
Regional equity strategist
Economist - Singapore, Malaysia, & Vietnam
+65 6878-5233 joannegohsc@dbs.com
+65 6878-6727 irvinseah@dbs.com

Neel Gopalakrishnan
Samuel Tse
Credit Strategist
Economist - China & Hong Kong
+65 68782072 neelg@dbs.com
+852 3668-5694 samueltse@dbs.com
Eugene Leow
Duncan Tan
Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
FX and Rates Strategist - Asean
+65 6878-2842 eugeneleow@dbs.com
+65 6878-2140 duncantan@dbs.com
Chris Leung
Philip Wee
Economist - China & Hong Kong
FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
+852 3668-5694 chrisleung@dbs.com
+65 6878-4033 philipwee@dbs.com

Sources: Data for all charts and tables are from CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Group Research (forecasts and transformations).

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or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company & its associates, their directors,
officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, & may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein & may also perform or seek to perform
broking, investment banking & other banking or financial services for these companies. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any
person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Sources for all charts & tables are CEIC &
Bloomberg unless otherwise specified. DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Blvd, Marina Bay Financial Center Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company
Registration No. 196800306E.

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