Professional Documents
Culture Documents
akuntansi-PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS
akuntansi-PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS
A THESIS
By
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING
INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS
ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY OF INDONESIA
YOGYAKARTA
2008
PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS
THAT INFLUENCE FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS
(Empirical Examination of Manufacturing Company Listed in the Jakarta
Stock Exchange for year 2003-2006)
By
ANDIKAPUTRI KUSUMA WARDHANI
Approved by
Content Advisor,
Language Advisor
ii
PREDICTING FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS AND FACTORS
THAT INFLUENCE FUTURE OPERATING CASH FLOWS
(Empirical Examination of Manufacturing Company Listed in the Jakarta
Stock Exchange for year 2003-2006)
Board of Examiners
Examiner 1:
Examiner 2:
“Herein I declare the originality of this thesis; there is no other work which has
ever which presented to obtain any university degree, and in my concern there is
neither one else’s opinion nor published written work, except acknowledged
quotations relevant to the topic of this thesis which have been stated or listed on
this thesis bibliography. If in the future this statement is not proven as is
supposed to be, I ‘am willing to accept any sanction complying with the
determined regulation for its consequence
valuable than independence. This thesis is the result of three and half years of work whereby I
have been accompanied and supported by many people who have made this thesis possible. It is a
pleasant aspect that I have now the opportunity to express my gratitude for all of them.
First of all, I would like to thank to Allah SWT for the opportunity given to me to live in
this world. Only by His blessing and compassion, I could live my life as the way I am and feels
My greatest appreciation goes to my thesis advisor, Yuni Nustini Dra., MAFIS., Ak.,
whom I always consider as open - minded person for the support, criticism, and advises during
the supervision time. I owe him lots of gratitude for having me shown this way of research. She
could not even realize how much I have learned from him. I would like also to convey my sincere
gratitude to Ms Lulu Sylvianie, S.Sos. for her willingness to be my language advisor, and thank
My deepest gratitude goes to my family for their unflagging love and support throughout
my life; this thesis is simply impossible without them. I am indebted to my father, H.Kenny
Wardhana S.H, for his care and love. He worked hard to support the family and spare no effort to
provide the best possible environment for me to grow up and attend school. He had never
complained in spite of all the hardships in his life. I cannot ask for more from my mother, Hj
Umy Sholikhah, as she is simply perfect. I have no suitable word that can fully describe her
for me. For my sister Dek Arum (Mangu Cosmos) temperamental girl, we will together until the
end OK? Thank you for sleeping together for 21 years. My brother Dek Adi be nice and be
mature ya and thank you for keeping the laptop and printer work well. Bro and Sis thank you for
rendering me the sense and the value of brotherhood. I am glad to be one of them.
I debt special thanks to Maulana Dihaan Tadiska (Liuk) The love you gave comforts me
deep inside my soul, you teach me how to love and make me confident with my self, you just like
Sunshine in the cloudy day. Thank you for have been accompanying me for 6 years 3 months and
together we make our dreams come true. Also mas Diska’s familiy; Tante Istiqomah, Om
Munadjad, Mb Ririn thank you for rendering the books and for sharing your experience, Dek
making this thesis, thank you for all of the inspirations and ideas that I used in my thesis,
especially for Sari who teach me about Regression, Amita and Nuri that always give attention to
me, Diat for our many discussions and providing me brotherly advises and tips that helped me a
lot in staying at the right track, Rika who helped me much in getting things formal in a correct
way and Seto my friends under Ms Yuni thesis advisory, and for all my friends good luck with
your thesis.
Finally, to all of the lectures who have shared their knowledge and staff in International
PAGE OF TITLE...................................................................................................i
APPROVAL PAGE..............................................................................................ii
LEGALIZATION PAGE......................................................................................iii
DECLARATION OF AUTHENTICITY.............................................................iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.....................................................................................v
TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................vii
LIST OF TABLES...............................................................................................xi
LIST OF FIGURES..............................................................................................xii
LIST OF APPENDICES....................................................................................xiii
ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................xiv
ABSTRAK...........................................................................................................xv
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION.........................................................................1
1.1 Background of The Study....................................................................2
1.2 Problem Identification........................................................................4
1.3 Problem Formulation...........................................................................6
1.4 Problem Limitation..............................................................................7
1.5 Research Objectives.............................................................................7
1.6 Research Contributions.......................................................................7
1.7 Definition of Terms..............................................................................8
4.4.1 The First Hypothesis to Find the Ability of Cash Flow from
Operating Activities to Predict the Future Cash Flows … 51
4.4.3 The Third Hypothesis to Prove that Aggregate Cash Flows Are
Incrementally Informative Beyond Accruals Components in
Predicting Future Cash Flows.....................................................57
xi
LIST OF FIGURES
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to examine the ability of cash flows component from
operating activity to predict the future cash flows which done by manufacturing
companies that have been go public in Indonesia based on their financial
statements. As much as 76 manufacturing firm listed in the Jakarta Stock
Exchange each year were taken as sample using a purposive sampling method.
The statistical method used to test hypotheses is a multi linier regression. There
are four equations that will be used in the research. The result of this study for
the first equation shows that cash flow in current year positively and significantly
has ability to predict future cash flows, for second equation cash flows components
(core and non-core) do reflect different information relating to future cash flows.
For third equation we also find that the disaggregation of cash flow into aggregate
cash flows and accrual components significantly enhances cash flow prediction.
Hence, for the fourth equation the inclusion of cash flow components and accrual
components provide significant improvement in cash flow prediction than aggregate
cash flows and accrual components alone.
Keywords: Cash Flows, Accruals, Cash Flow Prediction, Core and Non-Core
Cash Flows, Cash Flow Variability
MEMPREDIKSI ARUS KAS AKTIVITAS OPERASI DAN
FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI ARUS KAS DARI
AKTIVITAS OPERASI DI MASA DEPAN
( Pengujian Empiris Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa
Efek Jakarta Tahun 2003 – 2006)
ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menguji kemampuan komponen arus kas dari
aktivitas operasi untuk memprediksi arus kas di masa depan dengan
menggunakan laporan keuangan perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia.
Penelitian ini mengambil 76 perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa
Efek Jakarta sebagai sample dengan cara metode purposive sampling. Metode
yang digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis adalah regresi multi linear. Ada empat
persamaan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Hasil dari penelitian ini untuk
persamaan pertama yaitu arus kas di tahun tertentu secara positif dan signifikan
mempunyai kemampuan untuk memprediksi arus kas di masa depan. Untuk
persamaan yang kedua yaitu komponen arus kas (inti dan bukan inti)
menunjukkan informasi yang berbeda dalam memprediksi arus kas dimasa
depan. Untuk persamaan yang ketiga yaitu pengujian sample dengan
memisahkan arus kas menjadi kumpulan arus kas dan komponen akrual hasilnya
menunjukkan secara sigifikan meningkatkan prediksi arus kas. Dan untuk
persamaan yang keempat yaitu penggabungan komponen arus kas dan
komponen akrual menunjukkan peningkatan yang signifikan dalm memprediksi
arus kas daripada kumpulan arus kas dan component akrual.
Kata kunci: Arus Kas, Memprediksi Arus Kas, Arus Kas Inti dan Bukan Inti,
Kemampuan Arus Kasi
1
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
(purchase of assets, for example) and the income statement (cash received
from the sale of good, for example) affecting cash and cash equivalents. Cash
and cash equivalents comprise cash on hand and demand deposits, together
known amount of cash and that are subject to an insignificant risk of changes
in value.
Reporting the source, uses, and net increase or decrease in cash will
most liquid resource. Cash flow information is also useful to evaluate the
company’s ability to produce cash and cash equivalent and make possible for
the user to develop the model to evaluate and to compare the present value of
Key principles specified by IAS 7 for the preparation of a cash flow statement are
as follows:
enterprise that are not investing or financing activities, so operating cash flows
includes cash received from customers and cash paid to suppliers and employees
[IAS 7.14] Operating activities include the production, sales and delivery of the
company's product as well as collecting payment from its customers. This could
the product.
and other investments that are not considered to be cash equivalents [IAS 7.6]
Items under Investing Activities include capital expenditures, which include
Financing activities are activities that alter the equity capital and
borrowing structure of the enterprise [IAS 7.6] Financing activities include the
inflow of cash from investors such as banks and shareholders, as well as the
Other activities which impact the long-term liabilities and equity of the company
are also listed in the financing activities section of the cash flow statement. Items
under the Financing activities section include dividends paid, sale or repurchase
The operating activity also shows what the cash effects of transactions
that enter into the determination of net income. As an analytical tool the
company, particularly its ability to pay bills, maintain the company ability in
operations, pay dividend and to make a new investment. Cash flow from
operation generally comes from other transactions and event, which influence
investing, or financing cash flows, provided that they are classified consistently
from period to period [IAS 7.31], cash flows arising from taxes on income are
financing or investing activities [IAS 7.35] and for operating cash flows, the
direct method of presentation is encouraged, but the indirect method is acceptable
[IAS 7.18]
This research tries to confirm about the cash flow from the operating
activities component to predict future cash flows. The reason why most
researches emphasis in the cash flow from operations is that most valuation
models suggest that unexpected operating cash inflow or outflows in the current
period should influence share prices through their effect in the current and future
cash flows
The result of prior research has shown that current period cash flows
better in predicting earning than current period accruals (e.g.,Sloan 1996) and
the result of investigating the aggregate cash flows and accrual components
has different level of significantly with aggregate cash flows and aggregate
studies do not clearly investigate the usefulness of cash flow components from
operating activity in predicting future cash flows. The other research shows
that aggregate cash flows and accrual components enhance cash flow
prediction beyond aggregate cash flows and aggregate accruals. It means that
The research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) tries to use cash flow
from operating activities to predict future cash flows and divide the cash
flows from operating activity into core and non-core cash flow based on the
Public Accountants) that firms should distinguish between the financial effect
the best possible information in which to analyze trends in a firm without the
and non-core cash flows. Core cash flow which the data taken from income
statement is defined as cash flow related to sales, cost of good sold and
operating expenses while non-core cash flow which the data taken from
statement of cash flows is defined as cash flow related to interest, taxes and
other expenses. And then address the issue of whether cash flow components
(core and non-core cash flows) have similar persistence and persist more than
non-core cash flows related to taxes and other expenses. It also explains that
significantly less than those for core cash flow components. The result is
(2004) who used data from Compustat annual industrial, research and full
they usually use indirect method in presenting statement of cash flows but in
using direct method. A different method in accounting will affect the form of
financial statement and the calculation. Direct method cannot reflect the
component of cash flow from operation which is defined as core component and
non-core component to predict the future cash flows. The research will be done at
background, the writer entitled this thesis “Predicting Future Cash Flows
1. Does aggregate cash flow from operating activities have the ability to predict
the future cash flows manufacturing companies listed on Jakarta stock Exchange?
2. Do cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
research will restrict the scope and size of proposed study as follows;
companies, which are listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) from 2003 until
2006.
1. Aggregate cash flow from operating activities has ability to predict future
cash flows.
2. Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence level in
1. This research is relevant for the management of the firm to make decisions.
pay dividend.
predicting the future cash flows to assess the financial reporting quality of the
firm.
3. This research is relevant for financial statement users to assess the effect of
Key word: Cash flow, Statement of cash flow, core cash flow, non-
core cash flow, Accrual basis, direct method of reporting cash flow, indirect
method of reporting cash flows. The writer will elaborate more about this
term.
2) The Statement of cash flows is reports a firm’s major cash inflows and
generate cash from operation, maintains and expands its operating capacity,
meets its financial obligations, and pays dividends. The Statement of cash flows
future investing and financing activities. The statement of cash flows reports cash
flows by three types of activities: cash flows from operating activities are cash
flows from transaction that affect net income. Examples of such transaction
include the purchase and sale of merchandise. Cash flows from investing
activities are cash flows from transaction that affect the investment in non current
assets. Examples of cash inflows include the sale and purchase of plant assets,
such as equipment and buildings and for cash outflows include payments to
acquire plan assets and investment. Cash flows from financing activities are cash
flows from transaction that affect the equity and debt of the entity. Examples of
cash inflow include the issuance or retirement of equity and debt securities, for
cash outflows are the payment of cash dividend, and the payment of debt (Fess &
3) Core cash flow is a cash flow related to sales, cost of good sold and
operating expenses.
4) Non-Core cash flow is a cash flow related to interest, taxes and other
expenses.
the period earned and expenses are recognized in the period incurred in the
6) Direct method reports the source of operating cash and the uses of
operating cash. The major source of operating cash is received from customers.
The major uses of operating cash include cash paid to supplier for merchandise
7) Indirect method reports the operating cash flows from net income and
adjusting it for revenues and expenses that do not involve the receipt or payment
of cash.
CHAPTER II
2.1 Introduction
This chapter contains the previous studies and the relevant theories used
in conducting this research about the predicting the future cash flows. The first
part presents the theoretical review that gives us the insight of the findings from
experts and other researchers. Several lessons can be found in such findings,
especially those related to cash flows and its components. The second part is
step by step started from financial statements, statement of cash flow, cash flow
from operations, presentation of cash flow from operation: direct and indirect
Some researches find that the result examining the earning is not accurate
anymore to predict the future cash flows, but the research below explain that
prediction of operating cash flows show increasing forecast accuracy for short
future cash flows over the 1980s and the 1990s. For example research done by
Myungsun and Kross, (July 2002). The result of the research stated that the
relationship between earnings and future cash flows has increased over time. This
result holds for older (surviving) firms and newer firms, dividend paying and
non-paying firms, firms that earned profits or incurred losses, and for small and
mid-sized firms. Large firms showed neither improvement nor deterioration. Out-
over time for one, two, and three year-ahead cash flows. This statement
supported by DeFond and Hung (2003) found that there is an increasing trend of
statement users’ ability to adequately predict future cash flows. In contrast, cash
flow includes as a primitive valuation construct argue that and cash flow
earnings information to past cash flows would give better predictions of future
cash flows than would past cash flows alone. Based on quarterly Compustat data
for thirty firms, the researcher did not find a general improvement in the ability
to forecast cash flows when earnings information was added. Bowen et al. (1986)
assessed the ability of accrual earnings and five measures of cash flow to predict
one- and two-period ahead cash flows against a random walk prediction of
CFFO. A final sample of 324 firms on Compustat for the period 1971-1981 was
used. The results indicated that the traditional measures of cash flows (i.e., net
statistically superior predictors of future CFFO than either earnings or CFFO and
the random walk models performed as well as (and often better than) models
based on other flow variables. Thus, the results did not support the FASB's
assertions of superiority of earnings for predicting future cash flows. The British
study by Arnold et al.(1991) and the Australian study by Percy and Stokes
(1992), who used the research methodology applied by Bowen et al. (1986),
and cash flows in predicting the future earnings and future cash flows that
using earning and cash flow as research variables, shows that earnings as an
independent variable have better influencing earnings as dependent variable
compare with the use of cash flows as predictor to earnings. But earnings are
not significant in predicting the future cash flow. This result also explains that
earning doesn’t have the ability to predict incrementally comparing with cash
flows.
flows in predicting earnings and cash flows is also done by Parawiyati and
Baridwan (1998). Using purposive random sampling for 288 financial reports
to 1994. By using earnings and cash flows from operation as dependent and
independent variable, this research also examine many problems which are;
firstly whether earnings and cash flows are the predictor to determine future
earnings, secondly whether earnings and cash flows are the predictor to
determine future cash flow, and the last is to whether earnings are
incrementally beyond cash flows in giving the prediction. The results of this
research show that both earnings and cash flow as independent variables have
While the other prior researches that examined about accruals earnings are
superior to cash flow from operations in explaining future cash flows, stock
return, etc. This statement carried as FASB statement declared that using earning
to predict future cash flows is much better compared to the use of cash flows as
predictor.
There are two researches that agree and disagree with the statement
declared by FASB. First, researches that agree using earning as a better predictor
in predicting future cash flow than the cash flows itself is Greenberg, et al.
(1986), and who disagree with FASB statement is (Finger, 1994; and
Burgstahler, 1998). They states that current cash flows have more predictive
ability when predicting future cash flows than current earnings in the short-
horizon.
by Hollie and Cheng (2004) in Indonesia. Both Hollie and Cheng suggest that
both current periods of earnings and current period of cash flows are important
determinants in predicting the future cash flows. They classify cash flow from
operations into two components; core and non-core cash flows and then they
components and aggregated cash flows alone in predicting future cash flows.
research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) as basis, there are some differences
Indonesia.
3. PSAK no.2 stated that the presentation of cash flow should use direct
method. That’s why almost all of the companies listing in Jakarta use direct
method in presenting their statement of cash flow. Thus, this research will
take the core component of cash flow from the income statements and
balance sheets.
According to PSAK No.2, company must arrange the cash flow statement
based on the requirement and they must present that statement as an integrated
part of the financial report for every period of financial report presentation.
One of the main objective of presenting the data regarding cash flow is to
provide information that is assumed that it will (1) Help the investor or
repayment of principal and (2) aid in the evaluation of risk. Risk in this
context, include both the expected variability of future returns and the
PSAK also stated that the historical information of cash flow is often used
appraisal that has been made before and to determine the relationship between
profitability and net cash flow and also the effect of prices changes. The
decision (Kam, 1986). SAK through its framework for the preparation and
presentation of financial statements points out that the information has the
1. The information must have predictive values; it means its resulted from it has
2. Feed back values, it means that the information must have value to evaluate
still reflects economic position when the statement is presented (Kam, 1982).
future activities of the company and can reduce the uncertainty about the
cash flows.
H2 = Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
information can de divided into two; financial accounting and financial reporting.
point in time or various kinds of changes in financial position of the entity over a
period of time.
entity’s assets, liabilities, and equity at the end of each accounting period.
2) The income statement reports revenues, expenses, gain, losses, and the
accounting period.
inflows and outflows during an accounting period. The statement of cash flows
provides information that, together with the information in the other financial
net cash flows 2) a company’s ability to meet its obligation and its need for
common practice of investing idle and cash in highly liquid assets, Statement
No.95 requires that companies treat cash and cash equivalents as a single pool for
reporting purposes.
and external party (investor and creditor). Management use the statement of
cash flows to appraise liquidity, determine the dividend policy, and evaluate
the impact of the decision relate to the main policy in investing and financing
activities. External parties use the statement of cash flows as the basic to
Figure 1.1
INFLOWS
OUTFLOWS
Based on PSAK No.2 year 2002 statement of cash flows must report
cash flow within certain period and classified based on the operating activities,
whether from their operating activities company can produce sufficient cash
flows to settle a debt, maintain the firm’s ability in company operations, pay
dividend and make a new investment. The examples of cash flows from
operations are:
activity.
7. Cash receive and cash payment from contract which is held for business
Method
statement of changes in financial position, effective July 15, 1988. FASB made
the decision to encourage, but not require, the use of the direct method for
reporting. Both the direct and indirect methods require cash flows to be classified
presentation affects the operating section only. The investing and financing
reports major classes of operating cash receipts and payments. In this respect, it
is more consistent with the objective of SFAS 95. Supporters of the direct
sufficient cash from operations to pay debts, reinvest in operations, and make
financial statements do not currently collect information that would allow them
on a cash rather than an accrual basis and may erroneously suggest that net cash
flow from operations is as good as, or better than, net income as a measure of
net income and net cash flow from operations. Advocates of the indirect method
note that it provides a useful link among the statement of cash flows, the income
statement, and the balance sheet. Critics point out that the direct method requires
Figure 1.2
Income Statement
Accounts (Accrual Basis) Balance Sheet Accounts Cash flow Statement
Revenues Adjust revenues to obtain
cash flows
Net cash flows
Cost of good sold Adjust cost of good sold from operating
to obtain cash flows to suppliers activities
Figure 1.3
General Process of the Indirect Approach to Determining Cash Flows
from Operating Activities
prepared using accrual rather than cash accounting. Unlike cash accounting,
associated with economic activities and the actual payment and receipt of cash
and the accrual basis ensures that the expenses incurred are properly matched
with the revenues they generate. When the accrual basis of accounting is used,
revenues are reported in the period in which they are earned. Generally accepted
accounting principles also require the use of the accrual basis. And based on
FASB, 1978, par. 43, 44, accounting earnings and its components provide a
better indication of a firm's ability to generate future cash flows than information
The accrual accounting data also can give the information that is useful for:
1.Financial structure and ability to detect the amount and time for cash
But from the comparison between accrual earnings and cash flows and
because of the arbitrary allocations which are used to compute the present
accrual earnings per share figure and the international differences in the
3. If the investor’s interest is in the survival of the firm, together with their
of performance evaluation in the sense that cash flow and net profit are the
4. Cash flow does not require price-level adjustments (which can distort
reported profit figures if inflation adjustments are not made), because cash
appropriate to the note that some general price level adjustment is needed for
various users because of the concerns associated with the firm’s ability to pay
dividends to investors, interest and capital to lenders and bankers, amount
6. Cash flow information is argued to be more objective and relevant than the
accrual-based information.
8. Cash flow accounting is the ideal system to correct the gaps in practice
flows) and the ways the results are evaluated (generally based on earnings).
CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHOD
This chapter is aimed at giving a view of the research conducted by the
researcher. The view will cover several important things such as the type of
the study, the subject of the study, research setting, and research instruments
procedures). Finally, as the most important thing before data analysis, this
This chapter will explain about the outlines procedures that are used to
gather and analyze the data. The explanation will include the hypothesis
rewritten into statistical hypotheses. This chapter also determines the null and
alternative hypotheses that are developed from the theoretical basis. This
research is an event study which tries to confirm about predicting future cash
flows using cash flows components from operating activity. The reason why
this research needs further observation because this can be important analysis
about future operations can deliver sufficient cash flow to settle a debt, to
from operating activities and the future cash flows, the different persistence
level between cash flow components (core and non core) in predict future cash
variables that used to prove the theory and it included as bivariate and
accordance with the purpose of research and the samples are found based on
elements that usually in the form of people, object, transaction or event where
Sample is a part collection from unit population. The population used in this
public in the Jakarta Stock Exchange within 3 years from 2003 until 2006.
Exchange. For the sample chosen in this research are 228 companies that
In order to collect, analyze, and present the results, the research will be
(ICMD), JSX statistic. The data used in this research is also collected from
JSX database at JSX corner Faculty Economy of UII, and also from Jakarta
data are taken from the companies listed in JSX, because JSX is the biggest
stock market in Indonesia and also accessible of gathering the data and the
To maintain the validity of the study, the data are taken from annual reports
independent auditor, in terms of relevance; the data are selected in such a way so
that they can support the analysis of the problem (they will be described later in
chapter IV). All acquired data are reflecting the existing problems of cash flow
from operating activities and the future cash flows, and the cash flow
statement that issued yearly as data and several requirements must be fulfilled
are:
2. The companies must publish the financial report in the year ended on 31 st
2003) to the accounting year 2006 (ended in December 31 2006), the variable
2003) to the accounting year 2006 (ended in December 31 2006), the variable are
the variable are the cash flow from operating activities, cash flow related with
This variable can be found directly from statement of cash flows, cash
flow from operation that used in this research is net cash flow from operating
activities.
The cash flow from sales variable cannot be used directly from the
from 1997 most of companies present the statement of cash flow by using
cash flow from sales were also calculated as sales minus change in account
receivable-trade.
Cash flow from CGS also same with cash flow from sales that cannot
be used directly from the income statement but must be calculated by Cost of
Good Sold minus change in inventory minus change in account payable
because the companies present the statement of cash flow by using indirect
method.
not available, the value will be taken from income taxes or income taxes
calculated as cash flow from the operations minus by all other cash flow
components (i.e., cash flow related to sales, CGS, Operating expenses, interest
and taxes).
8) Earnings (EARN)
In this research, for the company that presents their cash flow
calculated as follows:
Receivable for company using direct method of cash flow, change in Account
year t-1.
Collecting the data. The data are collected in such a way to maintain the
validity and relevance in this study. I access the information especially those
related to that will be used as variable in this research from the library of PPA
company listed in Jakarta Stock exchange from year 2003-2006 which has at
used as variables and only choose the company financial statement that has
complete data.
Doing calculations of variables needed in this research such as combining
the data which cannot used directly as variable, grouping the variable and etc
Doing the statistical test to find out whether there was a significant
Using the multiple regression analysis to predict the relationship from the
dependent and the independent variable. The regression equation would also
determine the standard error of estimate to measure the dispersion from the
actual data around the regression line. Furthermore the quantitative analysis of
(Gujarati, 1995). The classical linear regression model assumes that there is no
pair wise correlation among regression. If the pair wise or zero order
when the residual (el) has the different variance from one observation to another.
becomes inefficient. Thus, the objective of this test is to find whether there is no
it means that residual variance is same from one residual observation to another
of the Spearman’s correlation tests. Also it can use the scatter diagram and the
park test.
there are two ways to detect whether the residual have been normally distributed
In this research, the dependent variable used in every model used is cash
flow from operation in the year t+1, whether the independent variables used are
aggregate cash flow from operation in the year t, aggregate earnings, the
components of cash flow from operation and the component of accrual. The
relation between the dependent and independent variable will form two types of
The data analysis used in this research is Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
model. The steps analyses are divided into four groups of framework based on
the hypothesis, and then formed the regression model and formulated the
hypothesis testing.
1. The first analysis is to find the ability of cash flow from operating
flow components (core and non core) in predicting future cash flows. In this
research, I defined core cash flows as cash flow related to sales, cost of good
sold, and operating expenses and non-core cash flow as cash flow related to
flows.
6. Then after finished the fourth equation, use the Pair-wise test to know the
a.) First analysis is to find the ability of cash flow from operating activities to
The framework of this assumption is that the cash flow from operating
activities is assumed that they will have the ability to predict future cash flow.
Dependent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t+1.
Independent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t.
β = Coefficient of variable
ε = residual error.
b.) Second analysis is to measure the different persistence level between cash
The framework is taken here since this research tries to define core and
non-core cash flow in parallel with the classification of income statement. Core
components (core and non core) in predicting the future cash flows. In this
research, the researcher defined core cash flows as cash flow related to sales, cost
of good sold, and operating expenses and non-core cash flow as cash flow related
Dependent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t+1.
Independent Variable :
year t.
t.
In This case:
β = Variable coefficient.
ε = residual error.
c.) Measure the superiority of aggregates cash flows beyond accruals components
and aggregated cash flow alone in predicting the future cash flows.
Dependent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t+1.
Independent Variable :
3.3
In this case:
β = Variable coefficient.
ε = residual error.
d.) The fourth is to measure the superiority of cash flows component (core and
enhance cash flow predictability we investigate whether the role of cash flow
Dependent Variable : Aggregate cash flow from operating activities from year
t+1.
Independent Variable :
year t.
3.6
In this case:
β = Variable coefficient.
ε = residual error.
literature, so that the alternative hypothesis and the null hypothesis that are
1. Ho : Cash flow from operating activities doesn’t have the ability to predict
Ha : Cash flow from operating activities have the ability to predict future cash
flows.
2. Ho : Cash flow components (core and non core) doesn’t have the same
persistence level in predicting the future cash flows.
Ha : Cash flow components (core and non core) have different persistence
independent variables used in this research and then do the analysis the
significance of coefficient.
The statistical hypotheses used for equation 3.1 till 3.4 respectively
were as follows:
H01: β1 = 0
Ha1: β1 ≠ 0
H02: β1 = β2 = β3 = … = β6 = 0
H03: β1 = β2 = β3 = … = β6 = 0
H04: β1 = β2 = 0
The first until the fourth hypotheses testing steps are described as follows:
After analyzing the result of classical assumption test, then I continued using
simultaneous regression test by using F-test and partial regression test by using t-
test for each hypothesis that can be calculated by using SPSS 11.5.
significance value less smaller than 0,05 ,so the alternative hypothesis can not
The data then processed by using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social
Science) computer software. The testing for the first hypothesis was tested by
analyzing the cash flow from operation in year t on the cash flow from
operation in year t+1. For the second hypothesis, the hypothesis was tested by
analyzing the cash flow component (core and non-core) in year t on the
aggregate cash flow from operation in year t+1. For the third hypothesis, the
hypothesis was tested by analyzing aggregate cash flow from year t and
year t+1. The fourth hypothesis, the hypothesis was tested by analyzing the
cash flow component (core and non-core) in year t and accruals component in
This testing aimed to know the relation is significant from each free
variable toward its tied variable. If significance rate obtained (p- value) smaller
than 0,05 so H0 can be rejected or by = 5% those independent variable
until the fourth hypothesis that has already been described previously are
follows:
Ho is rejected when:
This chapter will explain about the early process of gathering data,
The data that are used in this research include of the information of cash
flow components from the companies (228 companies) in the JSX at the period
of 2004 - 2006, the data include of cash flow from operating activities, sales, cost
of good sold, cash flow from operating expense, cash flow related with interest
payment, cash flow related to tax payment, earning, account receivable, account
2004 - 2006.
Table 4.1
This section will describe the result of statistical analysis like average
value (mean), standard deviation, maximum value, and minimum value of each
variable.
Table 4.2
As we can see from table 4.1, the amount of sample, which is used in this
research, is 228. From variable CFOt and CFOt+1 that represent the amount of
aggregate cash flows from operations in current year and aggregate cash flows
from operations in the future, shows that in average, the mean for period t+1 that
is 4.15E+011 are greater than the mean in period t that is 2.82E+011. It indicates
that there is an increasing amount of aggregate cash flow from operations during
the periods of research. And the means from all variables represents overall
This test is aimed to know whether in the regression model, the residual has
normal distribution or not. This analysis use normality testing by using normal
probably plot of standardized residual. There are four p-plot diagrams for four
FIGURE 4.1
1.0
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0 0.0
0. 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1.0
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
0.8
Expected Cum Prob
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
dots are spreadly distributing roundabout diagonal line and the distribution is in
line with diagonal line. From the result, it can be concluded that the data
Classical assumption test is done to know whether the data used has been
the classic assumption cannot be fulfilled, it will cause bias in the research result.
The result of the classical assumption below will describe the validity of the data
( free variable) which are cash flow from operating activities, sales, cost of good
sold, cash flow from operating expense, cash flow related with interest payment,
cash flow related to tax payment, earning, account receivable, account payable,
Multicollinearity test can be seen from the tolerance value and variance
inflation facto (VIF) (Ghozali, 2005). If the test result shows that there is no
tolerance value which is less than 10 % or VIF calculation result shows that there
is no VIF value which is more than 5 for each independent variable, so in the
Table 4.3
Multicollinearity Test
Collinearity Statistics
Model Collinearity Statistics
Model Tolerance VIF
Tolerance VIF (Constant)
1 (Constant)
C_SALES .996 1.004
C_CFOt+1 1.000 1.000 C_CGS .978 1.023
C_OE .522 1.914
C_INT .930 1.075
C_TAX .947 1.056
C_OTHER .494 2.024
Coefficients(a) Coefficients(a)
Depre .968
Collinearity 1.033
Collinearity Statistics Statistics
Other .950 1.052
Tolerance VIF Tolerance VIF
(Constant) (Constant)
C_CFOt C_SALES .996 1.004
.997 1.003
A_ AR C_CGS .978 1.023
.998 1.002
A_ AP C_OE .495 2.020
.998 1.002
A_ Inv C_INT .929 1.077
.996 1.004
Depre C_TAX .943 1.061
.996 1.004
Other C_OTHER .469 2.133
.997 1.003
A_ AR .995 1.005
A_ AP .987 1.013
A_ Inv .986 1.015
Based on the multicollinearity test result in the table 4.2 above, it is known
that all variables for each equation have tolerance value more than 10 % and VIF
value less than 5 for each independent variable. Finally, we can conclude that
Figure 4.2
Scatterplot Scatterplot
5.0
Regression Studentized Residual
Regression Studentized Residual
2.5
0.0
-2
-2.5
-4
-5.0
-6
-4 -2 0 2 -2 0 2 4
Regression Standardized Predicted Value Regression Standardized Predicted Value
4 4
Regression Studentized Residual
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6
-4 -2 0 2 4 -2 0 2 4
The figure 4.2 shows that there is no clear pattern, and the dots
spreadly distribute in the above and under 0 in the Y axis. So, we can
and result proves that the data was valid and it will give a reliable estimated
model parameter.
4.4.1 The First Hypothesis to Find the Ability of Cash Flow from
Table 4.4
ANOVAb
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression ,068 5 ,014 2,767 ,018a
Residual 1,092 223 ,004
Total 1,160 228
a. Predictors: (Constant), CFOt
b. Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
Table 4.5
ability of aggregate cash flows to future cash flow. Consistent with prior
research, I find that aggregate cash flows in equation (1) are significantly positive
cash flows.
Table 4.6
Ρ-value Significance
Independent i t-Statistics level
Variables
CFOt 0.921 23.579 0.001 Significant
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
altogether can influence dependent variable. In the above table, it is shown that
regression analysis, table 4.4 shows that the coefficient of CFOt (β) the amount is
0.921. It means that CFOt positively affect the amount of CFO t+1. And it means
that an increase in one value of CFOt, it will cause the increase amount of CFO t+1
by 0.921, holding by other variables constant. This indicates that more than 90%
of current year’s cash flows will persist to next year’s cash flows. The results
also lead to a conclusion that there are sufficient evidences to prove that cash
flow from operation have the ability to predict the future cash flow. This is
consistent with the prior research done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) which stated
that the aggregate cash flow is significantly positive in the prediction equation.
independent variable (CFOt) explains 28.69% of the variation in the next period
cash flows.
This research defines core cash flow component are cash flow from: sales
expenses (C_OE). The non-core cash flow components are interest (C_INT),
taxes (C_TAX), and other expenses (C_OTHER). After finding all the variables
needed and stacking the data, the test for the second hypothesis is done by
identifying the significance level of core and non-core component of cash flow
from operation on aggregate cash flow from operation in future year (CFOt).
Table 4.7
ANOVAb
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression ,071 7 ,002 2,821 ,009a
Residual 1,112 221 ,007
Total 1,183 228
a. Predictors: (Constant), C_SALES, C_COGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER
b. Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
altogether can influence dependent variable. In the above table, it is shown that
Table 4.8
Model Summary(b)
ability of cash flows components (core and non-core) to future cash flow. From
the Adjusted R2, we can conclude that all of the core and non-core cash flows
components are significant in predicting future cash flow. The cash flows
component explains 46.4% of the variation in next-period cash flows. And the
adjusted R2 increase from 33.2% for equation (1) to 46.4% for equation (2), an
Table 4.6 shows the coefficient (slope or i ) and p-value result of all
C_OTHER). From those result we know that both core and non-core
component of cash flow from operation are significantly affecting the future
cash flow.
For core cash flows, the coefficient for C_SALES is 0.879 with a t-
statistic 9.569. The coefficient for C_COGS is 0.571 with a t-statistic 7.263 and
the coefficient for C_OE is 0.522 with a t-statistic 7.169. From that information,
compare than C_OE and C_COGS. This is different with the result from research
which is done by Hollie and Cheng (2004) which stated that C_OE has greater
caused because the research held in different country and different periods.
C_OTHER have a value 0.169, 0.141 and 0.109 respectively. Thus they have a t-
statistic of 1.796, 1.523 and 1.235 respectively. This values indicate that C_INT
has the greatest persistent between C_TAX and C_OTHER. This is in accordance
with the result of research Hollie and Cheng’s research (2004). According to
Hollie and Cheng, this is in accordance with FASB statement through SFAS
No.95, which stated that in deciding the reporting of statement of cash flow,
FASB chooses to include cash flow, related to interest in the operating section.
For the result of C_TAX variable is different with what Hollie and Cheng said,
they stated that C_TAX does not persist to the next period. According to them,
this concurs with the characteristic of taxes. It can depend on the sources of
income that the tax are levied on and depends on the firm’s tax strategy. The
result also lead to a conclusion that there are sufficient evidences to prove that
cash flow components (core and non core) persist similarly among each other but
persist more than non-core cash flows in predicting the future cash flows.
4.4.3 The Third Hypothesis to Prove that Aggregate Cash Flows Are
Incrementally Informative Beyond Accruals Components in
Predicting Future Cash Flows
Table 4.10
ANOVAb
Sum of
Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression ,084 3 ,005 2,749 ,017a
Residual 1,181 225 ,012
Total 1,265 228
a. Predictors: (Constant), CFO, A_AR, A_AP, A_INV, DEPRE, OTHER
b. Dependent Variable: CFOt+1
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
altogether can influence dependent variable. In the above table, it is shown that
Table 4.11
Model Summary(b)
ability of aggregate cash flows and accrual component to the future cash flow.
The result of adjusted R2 is 57.2% we can conclude that aggregate cash flows and
accrual components are significant in predicting future cash flow. The adjusted
2
R increased from 46.4% for Equation (2) to 57.2% for Equation (3), an increase
Table 4.12
ρ-value
Independent i Significance level
t-Statistics
Variables
CFOT 0.744 9.139 0.005 Significant
A_AR 0.616 8.387 0.018 Significant
A_AP 0.428 5.298 0.000 Significant
A_INV 0.325 0.593 0.000 Significant
DEPR 0.292 0.738 0.072 Not Significant
OTHER 0.278 0.872 0.558 Not Significant
Table 4.7 shows that CFOt, A_AR, A_AP and A_INV are significant to
the hypothesis alternative (Ha). We find that the coefficient for CFOt has average
0.744 with t-statistics. It indicates that almost 75% of current year cash flows will
persist to next year’s cash flows once effects of the accrual components are
controlled. Same with Hollie and Cheng, who found that the coefficient for CFOt
has greatest value among all variables, here we can see that A_AR also has a
great value compared to other variables. Based on the p-value of significant,
DEPRE and OTHER are not significant with hypothesis alternative. From that
result, we can derive a conclusion that aggregate cash flows are incrementally
Table 4.13
ANOVA(b)
Sum of
Model Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression ,071 11 ,013 4,926 .029(a)
Residual 1,112 223 ,016
Total 1,183 228
a Predictors: (Constant), C_SALES, C_COGS, C_OE, C_TAX, C_INT, C_OTHER, A_AR, A_AP,
A_INV, DEPRE, OTHER
b Dependent Variable: lgcfot1
In the F test, if the F significant value is less than 0,05 so the alternative
altogether can influence dependent variable. In the above table, it is shown that
Model Summary(b)
Equation (4) assesses whether cash flow components (core and n0n-core)
Table 4.15
Independent
i t- Ρ-value Significance level
Variables Statistics
C_SALES 0.899 10.689 0.000 Significant
C_COGS 0.685 8.374 0.001 Significant
C_OE 0.581 5.103 0.005 Significant
C_INT 0.216 3.060 0.000 Significant
C_TAX 0.251 3.349 0.010 Significant
C_OTHER 0.178 2.947 0.003 Significant
A_AR 0.236 1.848 0.014 Significant
A_AP 0.212 1.789 0.000 Significant
A_INV 0.194 0.702 0.027 Significant
DEPR 0.317 0.236 0.095 Not Significant
OTHER 0.115 0.024 0.688 Not Significant
This research finds that all components of cash flow are significant. For
the accrual components, DEPRE and OTHER are not significant. The
significance level of cash flow components have the same sign to those reported
in equation (2) and the significance level for accrual components also same with
equation (3). When we add accrual components, all coefficients get larger. For
example, coefficients of the core items (C_Sales, C_COGS and C_OE) increase
from (0.879, 0.571 and 0.522) to (0.899, 0.685 and 0.581), a 10% increase,
coefficients of C_INT, C_TAX and C_OTHER increase from (0.169, 0.141 and
0.109) to (0.216, 0.251 and 0.178). Comparing the coefficients for the accrual
components between equation (3) and (4) reveals that magnitude of the
coefficients of A_AR, A_AP, A_INV and OTHER decrease from (0.616, 0.428,
0.325 and 0.278) to (0.236, 0.212, 0.194 and 0,115). However, the coefficients of
DEPR increase from (0.292) to (0.317). This implies the significance of short-
term accruals and OTHER in equation 3 is partly due to their correlations to cash
flows while this is not the case for long-term accruals. This is same with the
result of Hollie and Cheng’s research (2004). The result from their research
shows that all cash flow components become larger when they add accrual
components. They stated that by adding omitted variables it will improve the
depend on whether the significance of the original variables from the original
model is due to their correlation to added omitted variables. From that result, we
can derive the conclusion for the fourth equation in this research that cash flow
and 4
Equation 2 3 4
2 12.32% 14.95%
19.42 27.69
<.0001 <.0001
3 12.13%
19.51
<.0001
(13.97, 12.32 and 12.13 respectively) with high t-statistics (20.84, 19.42 and
for the future research. Through this chapter, the economists can learn some
important lessons in this study, particularly in predicting the future cash flows.
Thus, for the students who will conduct the next research or further research
relates to this study, this paper can be a guidance to derive and determine new
Based on the research purpose, the statistical test and analysis that have been
total sample of 228 companies which were listed in the Jakarta Stock
Exchange conclude that there were sufficient evidence to prove the first
hypothesis that the aggregate cash flow in current year has the ability to
from operations in predicting the future cash flow. From the result we
can see that all variable (consider as cash flow core and non-core
between financial effects of company’s core and non-core cash flow has
CFOt has the highest coefficient with the future cash flows we can see
that all accrual components are not significant to the future cash flows.
d. The superiority of cash flow components to predict the future cash flow
3.4. All cash flows components are significant to the dependent variable
(future cash flow or CFO t+1), each component gives positive coefficient
drawn:
Stock Exchange.
2. For further research, the research should not only prove the different
persistent level between each variable and components but it must also
3. Further research may compare between the core and non-core cash flow
Arnold, A.J., C.D.B. Clubb, S. Manson and R.T. Wearing, [1991], "The
Relationship Between Earnings, Funds Flows and Cash Flows: Evidence
for the UK, "Accounting and Business Research, Vol. 22, No. 85, pp. 13-
19.
Barth, M. E., D. Cram, and K. Nelson, 2001. Accruals and the Prediction of
Future Cash Flows. The Accounting Review 76 (January): 27-58.
Belkaouli, Ahmed Riahi, Teori Akuntansi, Buku 2, Salemba Empat, Jakarta, 2001.
Board, J.L.G., and J.F.S. Day (1989), "The Information Content of Cash Flow
Figures," Accounting and Business Research 20 (77), 3-11.
Casey, Cornelius J., and Norman J. Bartczak (1984), "Cash Flow--It's Not the
Bottom Line," Harvard Business Review July-August 1984, 61-66.
Cheng, C. S. Agnes, and Hollie, Dana, 2004. The Usefulness of Core and Non-
Core Cash Flows in Predicting Future Cash Flows. Working Paper,
University of Houston.
DeFond, Mark, and Hung, 2003. An Empirical Analysis of Analysts’ Cash Flow
Forecasts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 35: 73-100.
Fess, Phipiln E., and Warren, Carl s., (2001). Accounting Principles. United
Stated of America: South-Western Publishing Co.
Finger, Catherine, 1994. The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and
Cash Flow. Journal of Accounting Research 32 (Autumn): 210-223.
Greenberg, R. R., G. L. Johnson, and K. Ramesh, 1986. Earnings versus cash flow as a predictor of
future cash flow measures. Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 1: 266-277
Ikatan Akuntan Indonesia. (1994). Pernyataan Standar Akuntansi Keuangan (PSAK) No.2, Jakarta:
IAI.
Indonesian Capital Market Directory 2004 Institute For Economic And Finance
Research (ECFIN).
Kam, V. (1986). Accounting theory. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Kieso, Donald E., and Weygandt, Jerry J., (2006). Intermediate Accounting.
United Stated of America: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Kim, Myungsun and Kross, William, 2002. The Ability of Earnings to Predict
Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing - Not Decreasing.
Working Paper, Purdue University - Krannert School of Management.
Kuncoro, Mudrajad. (2003). Metode Riset untuk Bisnis & Ekonomi. Jakarta:
Erlangga.
Mahoney, J.J, Sever, M.V. & Theis, J.A. 1998. Cash Flow: FASB opens the
floodgates. Journal of Accountancy, May, pp.26-36
Murdoch, Brock, and Paul Krause (1989), "An Empirical Investigation of the
Predictive Power of Accrual and Cash Flow Data in Forecasting Operating
Cash Flow," Akron Business and Economic Review 20 (3), 100-113.
Parawiyati., dan Z. Baridwan. 1998. Kemampuan Laba dan Arus Kas dalam
Memprediksi Laba dan Arus Kas Perusahaan Go Publik di Indonesia.
Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Indonesia, vol. 1, no. 1 (Januari). pp. 1-11.
Sloan, R., 1996. Do stock prices fully reflect information in accruals and cash
flows about future earnings? The Accounting Review 71: 289-315.
75
APPENDIC 2
Data for Each Variable
76
HDTX 1.2E+10 3.1E+10 5.2E+10 3.1E+10 5.2E+10 1.48E+10 8.65E+11 7.65E+11 5.058E+11 8.38E+11 7.49E+11 6.03E+11
IGAR 2.8E+07 8.2E+09 -7E+09 8.2E+09 -7E+09 4.36E+10 4.47E+11 3.71E+11 3.459E+11 3.88E+11 3.14E+11 2.86E+11
IKAI 2.4E+10 4.7E+10 -1E+09 4.7E+10 -1E+09 5.79E+10 2.83E+11 2.37E+11 1.579E+11 2.15E+11 1.82E+11 1.77E+11
IKBI 5E+10 1.5E+10 1.3E+10 1.5E+10 1.3E+10 7.35E+09 1.44E+12 8.79E+11 5.309E+11 1.34E+12 9.17E+11 5.55E+11
INAF 7.3E+10 5.5E+10 1.6E+11 5.5E+10 1.6E+11 4.07E+10 6.66E+11 6.48E+11 5.213E+11 4.85E+11 4.73E+11 3.61E+11
INAI 8.3E+10 3.4E+10 1.1E+10 3.4E+10 1.1E+10 -7.24E+09 4.24E+11 4.41E+11 2.808E+11 4.36E+11 4.38E+11 2.93E+11
INDF 1.5E+12 8E+11 1.8E+12 8E+11 1.8E+12 1.56E+12 1.81E+13 1.77E+13 1.794E+13 1.43E+13 1.33E+13 1.34E+13
INDS -6.5E+10 6.4E+09 -5E+08 6.4E+09 -5E+08 5.82E+09 5.03E+11 2.86E+11 1.999E+11 3.82E+11 2.67E+11 1.9E+11
INKP 4.2E+12 1.7E+12 9.6E+11 1.7E+12 9.6E+11 1.78E+12 1.17E+13 1.45E+13 1.317E+13 1.2E+13 1.21E+13 1.19E+13
INTP 1.2E+12 1.3E+12 1.3E+12 1.3E+12 1.3E+12 1.39E+12 5.53E+12 4.5E+12 4.032E+12 3.57E+12 3.09E+12 2.76E+11
JECC 2.4E+09 2.4E+10 1.7E+10 2.4E+10 1.7E+10 2.29E+10 4.5E+11 3.53E+11 2.628E+11 3.7E+11 3.11E+11 2.54E+11
JPFA 2E+11 1.5E+11 2E+11 1.5E+11 2E+11 -2.26E+10 5.29E+12 4.55E+12 4.409E+12 4.43E+12 3.94E+12 3.8E+12
KAEF 1.4E+11 3.1E+10 7.5E+10 3.1E+10 7.5E+10 3.15E+11 1.71E+12 1.91E+12 1.773E+12 1.24E+12 1.28E+12 1.27E+12
KDSI 2.9E+10 1.8E+10 -6E+08 1.8E+10 -6E+08 -1.04E+09 6.21E+11 5.32E+11 5.012E+11 5.63E+11 4.92E+11 4.69E+11
KICI 3.6E+09 1.2E+09 1.3E+10 1.2E+09 1.3E+10 -5.31E+09 9.08E+10 8.74E+10 7.974E+10 8.57E+10 8.4E+10 8.51E+10
KKGI 5.4E+09 5.4E+09 1.5E+09 5.4E+09 1.5E+09 3.27E+10 1.37E+11 1.72E+11 1.373E+11 8.86E+10 1.29E+11 1.24E+11
KLBF 6.4E+11 4.4E+11 4.3E+11 4.4E+11 4.3E+11 5.07E+11 5.67E+12 3.42E+12 2.812E+12 2.91E+12 1.46E+12 1.27E+12
LAPD 5E+08 3.8E+09 -3E+09 3.8E+09 -3E+09 6.49E+08 8.52E+10 8.34E+10 5.72E+10 7.87E+10 8.44E+10 5.39E+10
LMPI 6.1E+09 4.7E+07 1.8E+09 4.7E+07 1.8E+09 1.98E+10 2.56E+11 2E+11 2.307E+11 2.23E+11 2.09E+11 2.08E+11
LMSH 9.8E+08 -5E+08 7.2E+09 -5E+08 7.2E+09 3.75E+09 1.03E+11 8.12E+09 6.252E+10 9.21E+10 7.62E+10 5.94E+10
LPIN -2.6E+09 -7E+09 2.7E+09 -7E+09 2.7E+09 1.62E+09 4.22E+10 3.85E+10 5.101E+10 3.51E+10 3.11E+10 2.38E+10
MLBI 1.7E+11 1.4E+11 1.5E+11 1.4E+11 1.5E+11 1.1E+11 8.3E+11 6.93E+11 5.308E+11 4.78E+11 4.02E+11 2.91E+11
MLIA 1.1E+11 1.8E+11 4.5E+11 1.8E+11 4.5E+11 2.21E+11 2.78E+12 2.62E+12 2.112E+12 2.14E+12 1.96E+12 1.8E+12
MRAT 2.3E+09 1.2E+10 2.2E+10 1.2E+10 2.2E+10 1.52E+10 2.17E+11 2.51E+11 2.251E+11 9.32E+10 1.12E+11 9.88E+10
MYOR 2.4E+10 1.6E+11 1E+11 1.6E+11 1E+11 1.28E+11 1.84E+12 1.37E+12 1.047E+12 1.33E+12 1.04E+12 8.05E+11
MYRX 1E+11 1E+11 3.4E+10 1E+11 3.4E+10 2.22E+10 3.95E+11 3.67E+11 2.783E+11 3.75E+11 3.21E+11 2.68E+11
MYTX 1.2E+11 8.9E+10 4.9E+10 8.9E+10 4.9E+10 1.89E+10 2.28E+12 2.12E+13 1.852E+12 2.12E+12 2E+12 1.81E+12
PAFI 3.6E+09 3.4E+08 4.5E+10 3.4E+08 4.5E+10 -1.8E+10 4.35E+11 4.07E+11 3.804E+11 4.46E+11 4.06E+11 4.09E+11
PICO -3.4E+10 1.5E+10 3E+10 1.5E+10 3E+10 -6.45E+09 2.83E+11 1.81E+11 1.426E+11 1.95E+11 1.6E+11 1.55E+11
POLY -8.8E+11 -1E+11 1.8E+10 -1E+11 1.8E+10 2.2E+11 3.72E+12 1.87E+12 2.041E+12 3.32E+12 7.67E+10 2.42E+12
PRAS 5.7E+10 3.4E+10 5.1E+10 3.4E+10 5.1E+10 2.05E+10 6.65E+11 4.72E+11 3.384E+11 6.43E+11 4.89E+11 3.43E+11
PSDN 5.1E+09 8.6E+09 1.8E+10 8.6E+09 1.8E+10 -5.67E+10 3.91E+11 2.65E+11 8.208E+10 3.26E+11 2.19E+11 7.64E+10
PYFA -2.7E+09 1.6E+09 4.5E+09 1.6E+09 4.5E+09 3.97E+09 4.39E+10 3.13E+10 2.628E+10 1.62E+10 1.32E+10 1.03E+10
RICY 1.2E+10 1E+10 5.6E+09 1E+10 5.6E+09 1.49E+10 3.12E+11 1.96E+11 1.937E+11 2.13E+11 1.57E+11 1.73E+11
SCCO 1.3E+11 1.5E+10 5.7E+10 1.5E+10 5.7E+10 8.35E+09 1.24E+12 9.12E+11 5.89E+11 1.21E+12 9.63E+11 5.69E+11
SIMA 3.6E+08 6.9E+09 1.8E+09 6.9E+09 1.8E+09 1.32E+10 9.59E+10 7.16E+10 6.415E+10 7.71E+10 6.33E+10 5.39E+10
SKLT 3.4E+09 2.5E+09 1.2E+09 2.5E+09 1.2E+09 -2.85E+09 1.93E+11 1.65E+11 1.481E+11 1.37E+11 1.14E+11 1.31E+11
SMCB 4.5E+11 2.1E+11 1.2E+11 2.1E+11 1.2E+11 3.11E+10 2.78E+12 2.34E+12 2.163E+12 2.3E+12 2.2E+12 2.02E+12
SMGR 1.6E+12 1.2E+12 8.5E+11 1.2E+12 8.5E+11 1.11E+12 7.16E+12 5.84E+12 5.474E+12 4.64E+12 4.01E+12 3.56E+12
SMSM 7.4E+10 1.5E+11 4.9E+10 1.5E+11 4.9E+10 5.83E+10 9.41E+11 7.23E+11 6.047E+11 6.64E+11 5.56E+11 4.84E+11
SOBI 3.4E+10 1.2E+11 1.3E+11 1.2E+11 1.3E+11 2.91E+10 7.2E+12 5.5E+11 4.621E+11 5.44E+11 4.15E+11 4.04E+11
SPMA 9.9E+09 1.1E+10 -2E+09 1.1E+10 -2E+09 2.3E+10 5.81E+11 5.62E+11 4.694E+11 4.78E+11 4.55E+11 3.96E+11
SQMI 1.8E+08 2.7E+09 2.6E+10 2.7E+09 2.6E+10 -7.36E+08 2.02E+10 5.08E+10 2.973E+10 1.92E+10 4.3E+10 3.15E+10
SRSN 3.6E+10 5.4E+09 -6E+09 5.4E+09 -6E+09 1.28E+10 2.59E+11 1.13E+11 1.458E+11 2.1E+11 1.56E+11 1.37E+11
STTP 1.4E+10 5.1E+09 7.2E+09 5.1E+09 7.2E+09 1.307E+12 6.33E+11 7.26E+11 6.743E+11 5.54E+11 5.91E+11 5.74E+11
TBMS 2.9E+11 4.7E+10 5.1E+10 4.7E+10 5.1E+10 -6.53E+10 2.62E+12 1.71E+12 9.589E+11 2.81E+12 1.76E+12 9.82E+11
TEJA 5.9E+10 -3E+09 2.5E+11 -3E+09 2.5E+11 1.69E+10 6.26E+10 1.63E+11 6.175E+11 1.43E+11 3.05E+11 6.54E+11
TFCO -3.1E+11 3.9E+12 2.1E+11 3.9E+12 2.1E+11 1.3E+11 6.97E+12 2.86E+12 2.043E+12 2.76E+12 2.71E+12 2.25E+12
TIRT 7.2E+10 -1E+11 3E+10 -1E+11 3E+10 6.71E+09 7.23E+11 7.06E+11 3.704E+11 7.65E+11 6.55E+11 3.67E+11
TKIM 3.7E+11 7.5E+11 9.5E+11 7.5E+11 9.5E+11 4.01E+11 1.31E+12 9.18E+12 8.647E+12 7.63E+12 6.93E+12 6.76E+12
TOTO 9.9E+10 4.6E+10 4.6E+10 4.6E+10 4.6E+10 5.69E+10 6.6E+11 5.42E+11 4.472E+11 5.44E+11 4.18E+11 3.47E+11
TRST 1.5E+11 -3E+10 1.8E+10 -3E+10 1.8E+10 1.36E+11 9.04E+11 8.13E+11 7.388E+11 9.15E+11 7.63E+11 6.18E+11
TSPC 2.3E+11 3E+11 4.2E+11 3E+11 4.2E+11 3.21E+11 6.86E+08 1.99E+11 1.965E+12 1.41E+12 1.3E+12 1.16E+12
ULTJ 1.1E+11 3.6E+10 3.6E+10 3.6E+10 3.6E+10 4.04E+09 6.41E+11 5.28E+11 4.647E+11 4.96E+11 3.72E+11 3.31E+11
UNIC 2.9E+13 1.9E+13 4.2E+10 1.9E+13 4.2E+10 3.14E+11 2.9E+14 -3.7E+13 2.492E+12 2.54E+14 2.49E+12 2.12E+12
UNVR 2.2E+12 1.7E+12 1.4E+12 1.7E+12 1.4E+12 1.26E+12 9.8E+12 9.02E+12 8.094E+12 5.1E+12 4.32E+12 3.91E+12
85
APPENDIC 3
Coefficient Regression
First Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients T Sig. Correlations Collinearity Statistics
Second Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig. Correlations Collinearity Statistics
Zero-
B Std. Error Beta order Partial Part Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) .920 .083 3.958 .000
C_SALES 0.879 .070 .142 9.569 .001 .665 .162 .002 .996 1.004
C_COGS 0.571 .062 .207 7.263 .033 .703 .232 .034 .978 1.023
C_OE 0.522 .085 .039 7.169 .006 .589 .040 .022 .522 1.914
C_INT 0.169 .020 .418 1.796 .083 .800 .162 .092 .930 1.075
C_TAX 0.141 .058 .027 1.523 .072 .714 .018 .010 .947 1.056
86
C_OTHER 0.109 .027 .201 1.235 .061 .770 .155 .088 .494 2.024
Third Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig. Correlations Collinearity Statistics
Fourth Equation
Coefficients(a)
Unstandardized Standardized
Model Coefficients Coefficients t Sig. Correlations Collinearity Statistics