Scenario Comparison

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6 Month 7

Scenario Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual
"Do Nothing" Scenario Profit $8,313 $8,325 $7,713 $7,900 $7,458 $7,724 $6,799
"Do Something" Scenario Profit $8,313 $8,325 $7,713 $7,900 $7,458 $7,724 $6,799

Bus Lines 24 Month Scenario Comparison

$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4
th th th th th th th th th h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 2 h 2 h 2 h 2 h 2
on on on on on on on on on ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont ont
M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

"Do Nothing" Scenario Profit "Do Something" Scenario Profit

 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Month 13 Month 14 Month 15 Month 16
Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
$7,279 $5,827 $5,646 $5,473 $5,307 $5,147 $4,993 $4,846 $4,704
$7,279 $5,827 $6,271 $6,137 $6,011 $5,892 $5,779 $5,673 $5,574
 Month 17 Month 18 Month 19 Month 20 Month 21 Month 22 Month 23 Month 24
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
$4,568 $4,437 $4,312 $4,192 $4,076 $3,965 $3,859 $3,757
$5,481 $5,394 $5,313 $5,238 $5,168 $5,104 $5,045 $4,991
Do Nothing Scenario
Assumptions Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5
Tickets Sold Run Rate Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual
Northern Route -3.7% 1,529 1,486 1,354 1,381 1,288
Southern Route 0.2% 759 796 804 812 816

Total Tickets Sold 2,288 2,282 2,158 2,193 2,104

Revenue Price Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual

Northern Route $5.25 $8,027 $7,802 $7,106 $7,252 $6,762
Southern Route $6.40 $4,858 $5,094 $5,146 $5,197 $5,222

$12,885 $12,896 $12,252 $12,448 $11,984

Cost Calculations
Fixed Costs per Route $2,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000
Variable costs per Ticket $0.25 $572 $571 $539 $548 $526
Total Costs $4,572 $4,571 $4,539 $4,548 $4,526

Northern Route Costs $2,382 $2,372 $2,338 $2,345 $2,322

Southern Route Costs $2,190 $2,199 $2,201 $2,203 $2,204

Total Costs $4,572 $4,571 $4,539 $4,548 $4,526

Northern Route Profit $5,645 $5,430 $4,768 $4,906 $4,440

Southern Route Profit $2,668 $2,895 $2,945 $2,994 $3,018

Total Profit $8,313 $8,325 $7,713 $7,900 $7,458

- - - - -

Do Nothing Scenario - 24 Month Profit

$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
Profit

$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Month
 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Month 13 Month 14
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
1,255 1,241 1,176 1,016 978 941 906 873 840
886 747 878 772 773 775 776 778 779

2,141 1,988 2,054 1,788 1,751 1,716 1,683 1,650 1,619

Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

$6,589 $6,515 $6,173 $5,333 $5,134 $4,943 $4,758 $4,581 $4,410
$5,670 $4,781 $5,619 $4,941 $4,950 $4,960 $4,969 $4,979 $4,988

$12,259 $11,296 $11,792 $10,274 $10,084 $9,902 $9,727 $9,559 $9,398

$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000

$535 $497 $513 $447 $438 $429 $421 $413 $405
$4,535 $4,497 $4,513 $4,447 $4,438 $4,429 $4,421 $4,413 $4,405

$2,314 $2,310 $2,294 $2,254 $2,244 $2,235 $2,227 $2,218 $2,210

$2,222 $2,187 $2,220 $2,193 $2,193 $2,194 $2,194 $2,194 $2,195

$4,535 $4,497 $4,513 $4,447 $4,438 $4,429 $4,421 $4,413 $4,405

$4,275 $4,205 $3,879 $3,079 $2,890 $2,707 $2,532 $2,363 $2,200

$3,449 $2,594 $3,400 $2,748 $2,757 $2,766 $2,775 $2,784 $2,793

$7,724 $6,799 $7,279 $5,827 $5,646 $5,473 $5,307 $5,147 $4,993

- - - - - - - - -

fit

19 20 21 22 23 24
Month 15 Month 16 Month 17 Month 18 Month 19 Month 20 Month 21 Month 22 Month 23 Month 24
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
809 779 749 722 695 669 644 620 597 574
781 782 784 785 787 788 790 791 793 794

1,590 1,561 1,533 1,507 1,481 1,457 1,434 1,411 1,389 1,369

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
$4,246 $4,087 $3,935 $3,788 $3,647 $3,511 $3,380 $3,254 $3,132 $3,016
$4,997 $5,007 $5,017 $5,026 $5,036 $5,045 $5,055 $5,064 $5,074 $5,084

$9,243 $9,094 $8,951 $8,814 $8,682 $8,556 $8,435 $8,318 $8,207 $8,099

$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000
$397 $390 $383 $377 $370 $364 $358 $353 $347 $342
$4,397 $4,390 $4,383 $4,377 $4,370 $4,364 $4,358 $4,353 $4,347 $4,342

$2,202 $2,195 $2,187 $2,180 $2,174 $2,167 $2,161 $2,155 $2,149 $2,144
$2,195 $2,196 $2,196 $2,196 $2,197 $2,197 $2,197 $2,198 $2,198 $2,199

$4,397 $4,390 $4,383 $4,377 $4,370 $4,364 $4,358 $4,353 $4,347 $4,342

$2,043 $1,893 $1,747 $1,608 $1,473 $1,344 $1,219 $1,099 $983 $872
$2,802 $2,811 $2,821 $2,830 $2,839 $2,848 $2,857 $2,867 $2,876 $2,885

$4,846 $4,704 $4,568 $4,437 $4,312 $4,192 $4,076 $3,965 $3,859 $3,757
- - - - - - - - - -
Do Something Scenario
Assumptions Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5
Tickets Sold Run Rate Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual
Northern Route -3.7% 1,529 1,486 1,354 1,381 1,288
Southern Route 0.2% 759 796 804 812 816
Western Route 1.5%
Total Tickets Sold 2,288 2,282 2,158 2,193 2,104

Revenue Price Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual

Northern Route $5.25 $8,027 $7,802 $7,106 $7,252 $6,762
Southern Route $6.40 $4,858 $5,094 $5,146 $5,197 $5,222
Western Route $5.50 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$12,885 $12,896 $12,252 $12,448 $11,984
Cost Calculations
Fixed Costs per Route $2,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000
Variable costs per Ticket $0.25 $572 $571 $539 $548 $526
Total Costs $4,572 $4,571 $4,539 $4,548 $4,526

Northern Route Costs $2,382 $2,372 $2,338 $2,345 $2,322

Southern Route Costs $2,190 $2,199 $2,201 $2,203 $2,204
Western Route Costs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Costs $4,572 $4,571 $4,539 $4,548 $4,526

Northern Route Profit $5,645 $5,430 $4,768 $4,906 $4,440

Southern Route Profit $2,668 $2,895 $2,945 $2,994 $3,018
Western Route Profit $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Profit $8,313 $8,325 $7,713 $7,900 $7,458
- - - - -

Do Nothing Scenario - 24 Month Profit

$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
Profit

$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Month
 Month 6 Month 7 Month 8 Month 9 Month 10 Month 11 Month 12 Month 13 Month 14
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
1,255 1,241 1,176 1,016 978 941 906 873 840
886 747 878 772 773 775 776 778 779
500 508 515 523 531
2,141 1,988 2,054 1,788 2,251 2,224 2,198 2,173 2,150

Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

$6,589 $6,515 $6,173 $5,333 $5,134 $4,943 $4,758 $4,581 $4,410
$5,670 $4,781 $5,619 $4,941 $4,950 $4,960 $4,969 $4,979 $4,988
$0 $0 $0 $0 $2,750 $2,791 $2,833 $2,876 $2,919
$12,259 $11,296 $11,792 $10,274 $12,834 $12,693 $12,560 $12,435 $12,317

$4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000

$535 $497 $513 $447 $563 $556 $549 $543 $538
$4,535 $4,497 $4,513 $4,447 $6,563 $6,556 $6,549 $6,543 $6,538

$2,314 $2,310 $2,294 $2,254 $2,244 $2,235 $2,227 $2,218 $2,210

$2,222 $2,187 $2,220 $2,193 $2,193 $2,194 $2,194 $2,194 $2,195
$0 $0 $0 $0 $2,125 $2,127 $2,129 $2,131 $2,133
$4,535 $4,497 $4,513 $4,447 $6,563 $6,556 $6,549 $6,543 $6,538

$4,275 $4,205 $3,879 $3,079 $2,890 $2,707 $2,532 $2,363 $2,200

$3,449 $2,594 $3,400 $2,748 $2,757 $2,766 $2,775 $2,784 $2,793
$0 $0 $0 $0 $625 $664 $704 $745 $786
$7,724 $6,799 $7,279 $5,827 $6,271 $6,137 $6,011 $5,892 $5,779
- - - - - - - - -

Profit

7 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Month 15 Month 16 Month 17 Month 18 Month 19 Month 20 Month 21 Month 22 Month 23 Month 24
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
809 779 749 722 695 669 644 620 597 574
781 782 784 785 787 788 790 791 793 794
539 547 555 563 572 580 589 598 607 616
2,128 2,108 2,088 2,070 2,053 2,037 2,023 2,009 1,996 1,985

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
$4,246 $4,087 $3,935 $3,788 $3,647 $3,511 $3,380 $3,254 $3,132 $3,016
$4,997 $5,007 $5,017 $5,026 $5,036 $5,045 $5,055 $5,064 $5,074 $5,084
$2,963 $3,007 $3,052 $3,098 $3,144 $3,191 $3,239 $3,288 $3,337 $3,387
$12,206 $12,101 $12,003 $11,912 $11,827 $11,747 $11,674 $11,606 $11,544 $11,487

$6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000 $6,000
$532 $527 $522 $518 $513 $509 $506 $502 $499 $496
$6,532 $6,527 $6,522 $6,518 $6,513 $6,509 $6,506 $6,502 $6,499 $6,496

$2,202 $2,195 $2,187 $2,180 $2,174 $2,167 $2,161 $2,155 $2,149 $2,144
$2,195 $2,196 $2,196 $2,196 $2,197 $2,197 $2,197 $2,198 $2,198 $2,199
$2,135 $2,137 $2,139 $2,141 $2,143 $2,145 $2,147 $2,149 $2,152 $2,154
$6,532 $6,527 $6,522 $6,518 $6,513 $6,509 $6,506 $6,502 $6,499 $6,496

$2,043 $1,893 $1,747 $1,608 $1,473 $1,344 $1,219 $1,099 $983 $872
$2,802 $2,811 $2,821 $2,830 $2,839 $2,848 $2,857 $2,867 $2,876 $2,885
$828 $870 $913 $957 $1,001 $1,046 $1,092 $1,138 $1,186 $1,233
$5,673 $5,574 $5,481 $5,394 $5,313 $5,238 $5,168 $5,104 $5,045 $4,991
- - - - - - - - - -
no cannibalisation has been modelled