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Verifying Residuals from Catch Curves to Detect

Recruitment Variation in Largemouth Bass and Crappies
a
Michael J. Maceina
a
Department of Fisheries , Auburn University , Alabama, 36849, USA
Published online: 08 Jan 2011.

To cite this article: Michael J. Maceina (2004) Verifying Residuals from Catch Curves to Detect Recruitment Variation in
Largemouth Bass and Crappies, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 24:1, 231-236, DOI: 10.1577/M02-162

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 North American Journal of Fisheries Management 24:231–236, 2004
q Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2004
Verifying Residuals from Catch Curves to Detect Recruitment
Variation in Largemouth Bass and Crappies
MICHAEL J. MACEINA*
Department of Fisheries, Auburn University, Alabama 36849, USA
Abstract.—Residuals associated with catch-curve re-
gressions can represent variable recruitment in fish pop-
ulations, but the use of this method to quantify recruit-
ment variation has not been verified. I computed age-0
and age-1 catch rates of crappies Pomoxis spp. collected
with trap nets set in the fall in three Alabama reservoirs
and the age-1 catch rate of largemouth bass Micropterus
salmoides captured with electrofishing during spring
over a 13-year period in a single Georgia reservoir.
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These indices of juvenile abundance were correlated
(r 5 0.52–0.81, P , 0.01) to residuals generated from
catch-curve regressions for electrofishing data collected
when these same year-classes recruited to the fishery at
age 3 and older. At higher age-0 crappie and age-1 large-
mouth bass catch rates, these relations became curvilin-
ear, and improved fit was computed with data transfor-
mation and nonlinear fits to the data. An asymptotic
relation was observed between age-0 and age-1 catch
rates for the same crappie year-classes, and an inverse
relation was evident between mean length at age 1 and
juvenile crappie catch rates. This result suggested that
density-dependent growth suppression and mortality oc-
curred, as age-0 fish did not proportionally recruit to the
age-31 fishery. However, the age-1 crappie (about 18
months old) catch rate was linearly related (r2 5 0.48–
0.55; P , 0.01) to residuals when data were compared
separately for each reservoir, which suggested that full
recruitment to the population occurred at this age. For
largemouth bass, mean length at age 1 was positively
related to age-1 catch rate, and recruitment of strong
year-classes to the fishery appeared proportionally great-
er than for abundant age-0 crappies. Residuals generated
from catch-curve regressions can serve as a useful quan-
titative index of juvenile crappie and largemouth bass
abundance that can be used in subsequent analyses to
explain recruitment variation. However, in some instanc-
es, initial strong year-class abundance may not be fully
expressed in the fishery later in life.
Residuals associated with catch-curve regres-
sions can represent variable recruitment in fish
populations (Maceina 1997). An advantage of us-
ing this technique as a quantitative index of re-
cruitment is that the relative abundance of past-
produced year-classes can be estimated from a sin-
gle sample of older fish that have recruited to adult
size or to the fishery. By regressing the natural
* Corresponding author: maceimj@auburn.edu
Received October 17, 2002; accepted February 19, 2003
231
logarithm of number at age against age, one can
use the associated residuals to estimate recruitment
variation and detect the formation of weak and
strong year-classes (Maceina 1997). In addition,
biotic and abiotic variables have been used in cor-
relation and regression analyses to explain and pre-
dict year-class strength, with residuals serving as
the dependent variable (Maceina and Stimpert
1998; Slipke et al. 1998; DiCenzo and Duval
2002). However, fishing and natural mortality may
not be constant among year-classes or among years
and can also contribute to variation in catch-curve
regressions (Ricker 1975). Also, indices of juve-
nile fish abundance may not be tightly correlated
to adult abundance if density-dependent mortality
occurs before recruitment to the initial age used
in catch-curve analysis. Finally, sample error of
both juvenile and adult fish can further contribute
to variation in estimates of recruitment.
Isermann et al. (2002) used trap-net data and did
not find a relation between coefficients of deter-
mination from catch curves (used as an index of
recruitment variability) and coefficients of varia-
tion in catch rates of age-1 and age-2 crappies
Pomoxis spp. In addition, for 15 of 17 populations
examined, the studentized residuals were not re-
lated to fluctuations in crappie year-class strength
determined from trap-net catches (Isermann et al.
2002). However, potential age and size biases for
trap-net catch rates of adult fish may have occurred
in this study due to underestimation of older and
larger crappies (Boxrucker and Ploskey 1989;
McInerny 1989; Miranda et al. 1992; Allen et al.
1999; Sammons et al. 2002). The objective of this
paper is to compare catch rates of juvenile crappies
and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides to re-
siduals associated with catch curves constructed
when the same year-classes recruited to the fishery
at older ages. A comparison of two different ap-
proaches to estimate recruitment variation is useful
for examining precision and potential bias and for
verifying the use of catch curves to quantify re-
cruitment.
Methods
Study reservoirs, collection, and processing
methods.—Black crappies P. nigromaculatus and
 232 MACEINA

TABLE 2.—Summary of electrofishing effort, collection

years, and catch rates of age-1 and age-3 and older large-
mouth bass from Lake Eufaula, Alabama–Georgia.

Age 3 and older fish

Age-1 fish
Age range
Year Effort (h) Catch Effort (years) Catch
1989 0.97 35
1990 1.50 18
1991 1.08 24
1992 1.41 11 1.41 3–7 57
1993 1.16 39
1994 0.88 15
1995 1.17 12 1.17 3–10 79
1996 0.90 55
1997 0.81 23
1998 1.30 5
1999 0.61 60 7.11 3–10 201
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2000 1.19 18
2001 1.07 16
2002 1.14 23 1.14 3–10 72

Alabama–Georgia. All reservoirs were eutrophic

FIGURE 1.—(A) Age-0 versus age-1 catch rates of
crappies collected via trap nets in three Alabama res-
ervoirs. The 1:1 line (dashed) and nonlinear regression
line (solid) are indicated. The relations between (B) age-
0 catch rate and (C) age-1 catch rate and mean length
at age 1 for crappies are also shown.
white crappies P. annularis were collected from
three reservoirs (Aliceville, Jones Bluff, and Weiss
lakes) from different drainage basins throughout
Alabama (see Figure 1 in Maceina and Stimpert
[1998]; Table 1). Largemouth bass were collected
from Lake Eufaula on the Chattahoochee River,
(chlorophyll-a concentrations $ 8 mg/m3). Water
level fluctuations were minimal (,1 m) in Alice-
ville and Jones Bluff lakes, but Lake Eufaula and
Weiss Lake had regulated annual fluctuations of
about 1.8 m.
Two different methods were used to collect crap-
pies. Juvenile and subadult crappies were collected
with 16–20 Indiana-style trap nets (Smith et al.
1994) from 1990 to 1999 (Table 1). Nets were set
in all reservoirs in October, with an additional sam-
ple collected each November in Weiss Lake. Nets
were set at fixed sample sites throughout each res-
ervoir, and fish were removed from nets after 24
and 48 h. From 1994 to 2001, crappies were pe-
riodically collected via DC electrofishing from a
minimum of three different locations in each res-
ervoir during March–April (Table 1).
Largemouth bass were collected during March
from at least three randomly chosen locations in
Lake Eufaula from 1989 to 2002 (Table 2); col-
lections were made by Alabama Division of Wild-
life and Freshwater Fisheries (ADWFF) personnel.
All largemouth bass were collected with a pre-

TABLE 1.—Summary of sampling effort, collection years, and total number of crappies used to compute age-0 and
age-1 catch rates from trap nets in three Alabama reservoirs. Also included are the years in which adult crappies were
collected with electrofishing and residuals from catch-curve analysis were computed.

Trap nets Electrofishing

Effort (net- Age-0 Age-1 Age range
Reservoir nights/year) Years sampled catch catch Years sampled (years) Catch
Aliceville 32 1991–1999 1,300 1,108 1994, 2001 3–8 140
Jones Bluff 40 1990–1997 2,706 1,558 1994, 1998, 1999 3–9 408
Weiss 76 1990–1997 1,848 1,933 1996, 1999 3–7 434
 MANAGEMENT BRIEFS
determined goal of obtaining at least 120 fish of
stock length (20 cm) and greater. In March 1999,
personnel from the Georgia Department of Natural
Resources (GDNR) used DC electrofishing to col-
lect largemouth bass from 12 pre-determined sites
throughout the reservoir. Age data from this larger
sample was used to augment data collected by the
ADWFF.
Black crappies and white crappies were pooled
for the analyses, as justified in Maceina and Stim-
pert (1998). Sagittal otoliths were removed from
all fish except for crappies smaller than 100 mm,
which were assumed to be age 0. Largemouth bass
and crappie ages were determined from otolith an-
nuli counts (Hoyer et al. 1985; Maceina and Betsill
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1987). If annuli counts were unclear, otoliths were
mounted on glass slides in thermoplastic, ground
until a thin cross section was obtained (Maceina
1988), and read in cross view. All otoliths were
read by a second person to verify precision.
Data Analysis
Catch per effort (total catch in numbers, divided
by the number of net-nights) of age-0 and age-1
crappies in trap nets was used as an index of ju-
venile abundance. For largemouth bass collected
from Lake Eufaula, catch of age-1 fish per hour
was used as an index of juvenile abundance. Catch-
curve analyses (Ricker 1975) were performed on
age-structure data from electrofished crappies and
largemouth bass by regressing (unweighted re-
gression) the natural logarithm of the number
caught in each year-class against age for fish age
3 (complete or nearly complete recruitment to the
fishery) and older. For data collected in Aliceville,
Weiss, and Jones Bluff lakes, residuals from catch
curves generated from different samples were rep-
licated for duplicated year-classes and paired
against age-0 and age-1 catch rates from the same
year-classes. Age-0 and age-1 catch rates were cor-
related and regressed against residuals to deter-
mine whether juvenile catch rates were related to
residuals from catch-curve regressions constructed
after fish recruited to the fishery at age 3. In ad-
dition, age-0 and age-1 catch rates of crappies
within the same year-classes were compared via
correlation and nonlinear regression analyses.
Mean lengths of age-0 and age-1 crappies were
compared to corresponding catch rates by use of
correlation.
For largemouth bass collected from Lake Eu-
faula, age-1 catch rates from the 1988–1999 year-
classes were correlated and regressed against re-
siduals computed from catch-curve regressions of
233
age-3 and older fish collected in 1992, 1995, 1999
(largest sample), and 2002 (Table 2). These col-
lections encompassed the year-classes for which
age-1 catch rates were estimated by the ADWFF.
Results and Discussion
Age-0 and age-1 catch of crappies was highly
variable in the three reservoirs. Age-0 catch rates
varied from 0.44 to 23.70 fish per net-night (co-
efficient of variation [CV] 5 100%), and age-1
catch rates ranged from 0.39 to 11.69 fish per net-
night (CV 5 85%).
For paired comparisons among crappie year-
classes, age-1 and age-0 catch rates were corre-
lated (r 5 0.77, P , 0.01, N 5 21), but in some
instances, catch rates of age-1 fish were greater
than for age-0 fish (Figure 1A). Thus, either under-
or overestimation of age-specific abundance likely
occurred during some years. Catches of 10 or
greater age-0 fish per net-night were associated
with lower catch rates for age-1 fish, with a de-
creasing asymptotic relation evident between age-
0 and age-1 crappies (Figure 1A). This suggested
density-dependent mortality was likely greater at
higher abundances of age-0 crappies. In support
of this, length at age 1 was negatively correlated
to both age-0 and age-1 catch rates (Figure 1B,
C), which suggested density-dependent growth
suppression.
For all reservoir years combined, age-0 and age-
1 crappie catch rates were positively correlated to
residuals (Figure 2A, B). Residuals did not pro-
portionally increase with higher trap-net catch
rates of age-0 crappies and a nonlinear relation
appeared evident in the plot. Log10 transformation
of age-0 catch rate improved the fit between these
two variables compared with the untransformed fit
(r2 5 0.27–0.37, P , 0.01, N 5 33). Residuals
and age-1 catch appeared to increase linearly (Fig-
ure 2) as log10 transformation of age-1 catch re-
gressed against residuals and the computation of
a second-degree polynomial regression equation
between age-1 catch and residuals did not improve
the fit between these two variables. When residuals
were linearly regressed against age-1 catch rate
separately for data from each reservoir, slightly
improved fits were observed; coefficients of de-
termination ranged from 0.48 to 0.55 (Figure 3A–
C). Nonlinear relations based on both log10 trans-
formation and second-degree polynomial regres-
sions between these two variables did not improve
fit compared to reservoir-specific linear relations.
In Lake Eufaula, electrofishing catch rates of
age-1 largemouth bass were correlated (r 5 0.81,
 234 MACEINA
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FIGURE 2.—The relations between (A) age-0 catch rate

and (B) age-1 catch rate and residuals computed from
catch-curve regressions for crappies collected from three
Alabama reservoirs. Residuals greater than or less than
zero can be considered strong or weak year-classes, re-
spectively, dependent on the magnitude of the difference
from zero.

P , 0.01, N 5 23) to residuals generated from

catch-curve regressions computed for fish age 3
and older (Figure 4). Age-1 catch rate was highly
variable and ranged from 3.8 to 98.4 fish/h (CV
5 93%). Similar to age-0 crappies, examination
of the scatter plot between age-1 largemouth bass
catch rate and residuals suggested a curvilinear
relation, as the proportional increase in residuals
declined at higher age-1 catch rates. A second-
degree polynomial equation improved the fit be-
tween these two variables, as the coefficient of
determination increased from 0.66 (untransformed
age-1 catch rate) to 0.72 (Figure 4). Contrary to
the negative relation between age-0 or age-1 catch
rate and mean length of age-1 crappies, a strong
positive correlation (r 5 0.79, P , 0.01, N 5 12)
was computed between age-1 catch rate and mean
total length at age 1 for largemouth bass.
I verified that residuals associated with catch
curves of older fish were associated with trap-net
and electrofishing catches of juvenile crappies and
largemouth bass, respectively. For the populations
I examined, residuals from catch curves only ex-
plained about 50–75% of the variation in juvenile
catch rates. Factors that explain some of the error
FIGURE 3.—Age-1 catch rate plotted against residuals
for crappies collected from three Alabama reservoirs:
(A) Aliceville Lake, (B) Jones Bluff Lake, and (C) Weiss
Lake.
include sampling error and inherent bias in the use
of catch-curve residuals as independent observa-
tions of year-class strength. In catch-curve re-
gression, the positive or negative sign of the re-
siduals associated with a year-class is dependent
on the abundance of other year-classes in the sam-
ple. For example, the potential exists for a partic-
ular year-class to appear abundant or dominant in
a sample, then lower in another sample taken at a
later date if the abundances of more recent year-
classes are high.
Curvilinearity in the relation between age-0
crappies (about 6 months old) or age-1 largemouth
bass (about 12 months old) and residuals suggested
that, at higher juvenile abundances, these fish did
not proportionally recruit to the fishery (age 31).
 MANAGEMENT BRIEFS
FIGURE 4.—The relation between age-1 catch rate and
residuals for largemouth bass collected from Lake Eu-
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faula, Alabama–Georgia. The dashed line represents the
linear regression (r2 5 0.66; y 5 20.602 1 0.0222x)
and the solid line represents the second-degree poly-
nomial regression (r2 5 0.72; y 5 20.898 1 0.0433x 2
0.000232x2) between the two variables.
Length at age 1 was inversely associated with crap-
pie abundance at age 0 and age 1. Typically, pre-
dation risk is higher and survival is lower for
slower-growing and smaller fish (Cowan et al.
2000). Thus, full recruitment to the crappie fish-
eries I examined would not be expected. However,
largemouth bass length at age 1 was positively
related to age-1 catch rate, yet relatively large ob-
served residuals were not computed in catch
curves for either the 1995 year-class (age-1 catch
rate 5 61 fish/h) or the 1998 year-class (age-1
catch rate 5 98 fish/h; see Figure 4). For the age-
1 crappie catch rate, fish were collected in the fall
at about 18 months old, and a linear relation was
evident between this variable and residuals when
examined in individual reservoirs.
My results for crappies differed from those of
Isermann et al. (2002), who did not find a relation
between coefficients of determination from catch
curves and coefficients of variation in catch rates
of age-1 and age-2 crappies. Studentized residuals
were not related to fluctuations in year-class
strength determined from trap-net catches (Iser-
mann et al. 2002). Data for adult crappie abun-
dance used by Isermann et al. (2002) were likely
biased due to underestimation of older and larger
crappies when collected with trap nets. (Boxrucker
and Ploskey 1989; McInerny 1989; Miranda et al.
1992; Allen et al. 1999; Sammons et al. 2002). In
support of the bias in trap-net data, I computed
annual survival rates of 31% in Jones Bluff Lake,
37% in Weiss Lake, and 40% in Aliceville Lake
from catch curves for 2.5–7.5-year-old fish (0.5
235
years was added because fish were collected in the
fall) from all trap-net data pooled. These estimates
were lower than survival rates computed with elec-
trofishing data from the same reservoirs: survival
rates were 54–61% in Jones Bluff Lake, 45–49%
in Weiss Lake, and 51% in Aliceville Lake. Sam-
mons et al. (2002) compared gear bias for sampling
crappies and recommended the use of trap nets to
index recruitment and electrofishing to collect old-
er fish for age analysis. Finally, Isermann et al.
(2002) used catch-curve regressions weighted by
sample size to compute residuals, which deflates
the influence of rare and older fish and causes bias
in residual estimates. Maceina (1997) recom-
mended the use of weighted catch-curve regres-
sion when incorporating environmental terms, and
the creation of a multiple regression from a simple
catch curve to reduce the probability of commit-
ting a type II statistical error when relating vari-
ation in an environmental term to fluctuations in
year-class strength.
To estimate recruitment variability and potential
effects of biotic and abiotic factors on production
of weak and strong year-classes, long-term (.10
years) annual data collection would be ideal. How-
ever, most research projects do not span this length
of time, and successive annual monitoring of pop-
ulations in a single water body by government con-
servation agencies sometimes does not occur due
to labor, financial, and logistic constraints. Col-
lection of age-structure data from older fish in a
population every 3–4 years and computation of
residuals associated with catch curves can circum-
vent this problem to some extent, and provide sav-
ings in funds and labor, as young fish abundance
does not have to be measured each year. However,
recruitment fluctuations in a population must be
large enough to cause variation in the catch-curve
regression. For the catch-curve regressions I com-
puted, coefficients of determination varied from
0.32 to 0.82 (average 0.66) for crappies and from
0.64 to 0.92 (average 0.81) for largemouth bass,
and this variation appeared sufficient to detect
weak and strong year-classes.
In previous publications (Maceina 1997; Ma-
ceina and Bettoli 1998; Maceina and Stimpert
1998), I made the assumption that residuals gen-
erated from catch-curve regressions represented a
quantitative index of variable fish reproduction.
The collection of additional data and analyses has
verified and confirmed this assumption for the pop-
ulations I examined, although some error and po-
tential bias does exist in using catch-curve resid-
uals to assess year-class strength. However, for
 236 MACEINA
very abundant year-classes produced at age 0 for
crappies and at age 1 for largemouth bass, sub-
sequent recruitment to the fishery was slightly
lower than expected based on residuals from catch
curves. Nevertheless, these year-classes still ap-
peared dominant in the age structure of these pop-
ulations later in life. Based on my results, residuals
generated from catch-curve regressions can serve
as a useful quantitative index of juvenile crappie
and largemouth bass abundance that can be used
in subsequent analyses to help explain recruitment
variation.
Acknowledgments
Funding for the data collected in this paper was
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provided by the ADWFF through Federal Aid in
Sport Fish Restoration project F-40. I especially
thank K. Weathers with ADWFF and D. Partridge
with GDNR for supplying largemouth bass data
from Lake Eufaula. Comments from D. Isermann,
K. Pope, and an anonymous reviewer improved
this paper.
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