SKF-LTU University Technology Centre

on Advanced Conditioning Monitoring

Activos SMART: Una visión

del mantenimiento basada
en el riesgo

Prof. Diego Galar

Division of Operation and Maintenance Engineering
Lulea University of Technology
Our location

Luleå
170 km south of the
Luleå Arctic circle
Sweden Finland

Norway

Denmark
 Luleå University of Technology

44 %
Education Facts about
Luleå University of Technology
 Founded 1971
 Turnover EUR 160 million
90 MEUR 70 MEUR  16 000 students
 1,570 employees
180 professors
530 teachers & researchers
56 % 580 PhD students
Research Space
Main Campus  70 research subjects in
Art&Media
9 research areas
Wood
25,000 people have graduated from
LTU, of which 13,000 work in the region
Research Programs
Structure of Operation and Maintenance
(O&M) research:
A multidisciplinary approach
RAMS: Reliability Availability
PHM
Maintainability Safety
CBM ILS: Integrated Logistic Support
MPM

RBM CM: Condition Monitoring

MDSS
New maintenance RBM: Risk Based Management
services
MDSS: Maintenance Decision
eMaintenance Support Systems
MPM: Maintenance Performance
Measurement
Human
ILS factors PHM: Prognostic Health
Management
CBM: COndition Based
CM LCC Maintenance

RAMS
SKF-UTC and SMART bearings
SKF, groundbreaking intelligent bearing
technology
 Maintenance thoughts
Performance Lack of
contract Budget

Decreasing
knowledge

More preventive Maintenance manager

maintenance

Output
Maintenance Lack of
Contracts information
 Others’ thoughts about
maintenance
What will be the cost How do we ensure the
of a better contracted
performance? performance?

Why is
maintenance so What are the effects
expensive? of cutting budgets?

What do we have
to pay for 1% What are the best
more availability? actions to be taken to
improve performance?

Maintenance manager
 Maintenance actions and
consequences
 What is the (quantitative) relation between
maintenance(cost) as input and performance
of infrastructure as output ?

 And how to manage this relation ?

10
How to answer that question?
Looking for a systematic approach to link
maintenance activities to performance.
• Based on risks
• Usable for evaluation and planning.
 Risk Based Approach

1) Identify & Assess Risk

2) Control Risk
3) Finance the residual Risk
4) Monitor/Modify/Continuous
Improvement
Addressing Safety
Hazards

Device Operator
Malfunction Error
Inspection
The world is smaller and flatter
and is getting more complex

RISK IS AMBIGUOUS WORD?

 But...What is Risk?

ERP
Customer

Logistic
ERP

CI

Warning
CM indicates need for a system
shutdown based on CI but….

SMART SYSTEM
ERP

Risk for asset

RISK n RISK 2 RISK 1=0
Risk for business
RISK 1=0 RISK 2 RISK n
SCENARIO
1

SCENARIO
RUL
SCENARIO 2
N
RUL

RUL
Four ways to classify RISK
decisions

Ethical & Legal

OKAY

Unethical & Illegal

DON’T DO IT
 Who is the driver for RISK based
MAINTENANCE?
• No standards, maybe ISO
55000…upcoming
• Health & Safety / Environment are
key players

Optimum LCC
Versus
mission
accomplishment
 Smarter Assets
enable
new business models
based on RISK
 RISK based maintenance
require SMARTness….
Resources
allocated
Maintenace SCENARIO
policy 1 1
Capacity or
RUL other KPIs
for MP1

Maintenace Resources
allocated SCENARIO
policy 2 2
RUL Capacity or
other KPIs
for MP2

Maintenace Resources SCENARIO

allocated
policy 3 3
RUL
Capacity or
other KPIs
for MP3

Maintenace Resources
allocated
SCENARIO
policy n N Capacity or
other KPIs
RUL for MPN
 SMART bearings, the upgrade
towards SMART assets….

Environment

Enterprise System
Feedback
Inputs Outputs
Maintenance
Labour force
System
Load
Grease
RUL
Adjust Remaining
Calibrate Useful Life
Inspect
Repair
Replace
Asset with SMART bearings will get
SMART
Environment

Enterprise System
Feedback
Inputs Outputs
Maintenance
System

Materials Capacity
Labour Quality
Spares Maintainability
Tools Availability
Money Reliability
Technology Safety
Information Cost
Facilities
 SMARTness will provide RISK management

Fleet System
Level Level Subsystem Component
Integrated Systems Health Management Continuous
Process Research
Prognostics Improvement
Project future health of the
system, taking into account
estimates of past and
future operation profiles
Remaining
Useful RUL
Life
Logistics

Diagnostics/
Condition
Health
Monitoring/
Assessment
Determine current State Detection
health of system or Compare features against
subcomponents expected values or
operational limits

Inspection Data
Product support

Data
Manipulation
Pre-Processing
Sensor Feature Extraction
Data Signal
Characterization
Inspections Maintenance
Data Recorders
Let us close the loop and mitigate the
risk
 In the beginning…
• Robots were designed to be a
replacement for repetitive,
labor oriented tasks
• Humans are slow, imprecise,
prone to injury and have
physical and emotional
limitations
• Machines are fast, precise,
durable and their limitations
make them ideally suited to
repetitive/dangerous tasks
 Industrial Robots
• The first modern industrial robots were
probably the "Unimates", created by George
Devol and Joe Engleberger in the 1950's and
60's. Engleberger started the first robotics
company, called "Unimation",
and has been called the
"father of robotics."
 Laws of Robotics
• Asimov proposed three “Laws of Robotics”

• Law 1: A robot may not injure a human

being or through inaction, allow a human
being to come to harm

• Law 2: A robot must obey orders given to

it by human beings, except where such
orders would conflict with a higher order
law

• Law 3: A robot must protect its own

existence as long as such protection does
not conflict with a higher order law
 What is a Robot?
Manipulator

Legged Robot
Wheeled Robot
 What is a Robot?
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
 What Can Robots Do?

Jobs that are dangerous

for humans

Decontaminating Robot
Cleaning the main circulating pump housing in the
nuclear power plant
 Smarter assets: Systems more efficient,
productive and responsive.
= SAFER and LESS RISKY

NEW
SUSTAINABLE
INTELLIGENCE
AND BEYOND
SMART
DYNAMIC
WORK
ASSET MANAGEMENT

+ +
INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT
How should these SMART
assets be?
Instrument the assets
A billion transistors per human being on the planet

Interconnect them
A trillion devices all giving off data – the ‘internet of things’

Make them intelligent

New analytics tools assessing this ocean of data
Something profound is happening….

INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT

We now have the ability to People, systems and objects We can respond to changes
measure, sense and see can communicate and quickly and accurately,
the exact condition of interact with each other in and get better results
practically everything. entirely new ways. by predicting and optimizing
for future events.

34
 A SMART bearing proposal…..
SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
ERP Enterprise Resource Planning
CMMS Computer Maintenance Management Software

FEATURE FAULT
DATA COLLECTION SIGNAL PROCESING
EXTRACTION CLASSIFICATION

TRANSFORMED CONDITION DATA

RAW DATA DATA FUSION
DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATORS

FAILURE DETECTION AND EVALUATION

Historical data
CMMS
DATA
SENSORS ERP
FUSION
SCADA
W DE
O

Required functions
O R
R
R S
K

MANAGERIAL DATA
ACTUATOR

DECISION Remaining useful life

DATA
SUPPORT Reliability prediction
FUSION
PROGNOSTICS
Risk assestment
SYSTEM

CONDITION
EVALUATION

SMART BEARING
 What does it mean to become Smarter?
Measuring, Monitoring, Modeling and Managing

Our world is becoming Sensing Metering  Data collection

INSTRUMENTED

Incentives and actions to change behavior

Incentives and actions to change behavior
Real Time

Feedback to user and data source;

Feedback to user and data source;
 Data Integration
Data Integration

Our world is becoming Real Time  Comparison of historical

INTERCONNECTED + Historical Data data, with newly collected
data

Data Modeling
+ Analytics  Data modeling and
analytics to create
insights to optimize
Virtually all things are becoming smarter decisions
INTELLIGENT Visualization
+ Decisions
 What does it mean to become Smarter?
Real Time
Data Integration

Sensing Metering

Real Time
+ Historical Data

SMART ASSETS Data Modeling

Visualization
+ Analytics
+ Decisions
 A SMART proposal…..based on RISK
SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
ERP Enterprise Resource Planning
CMMS Computer Maintenance Management Software

RISK ANALYSIS
FEATURE FAULT
DATA COLLECTION SIGNAL PROCESING
EXTRACTION CLASSIFICATION

TRANSFORMED CONDITION DATA

RAW DATA DATA FUSION
DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATORS

FAILURE DETECTION AND EVALUATION

Historical data
CMMS
DATA
SENSORS ERP
FUSION
SCADA
W DE
O

Required functions
O R
R
R S
K

MANAGERIAL DATA
ACTUATOR

DECISION Remaining useful life

DATA
SUPPORT Reliability prediction
FUSION
PROGNOSTICS
Risk assestment
SYSTEM

CONDITION
EVALUATION
RISK REDUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT
SMART MACHINE
First challenge: Instrumented and
connected
Value is created by interconnection
and new services
Traffic Services
Vehicle Services  Police/Emergency Personal Services
 Vehicle Monitoring  Traffic Congestion
 News
 Roadside Assistance  Weather
 Entertainment
 Advanced Diagnostics  Concierge
 Banking
 Software Fault Analytics  Insurance
 Government
 Service & Warranty Data (“pay as you drive”)
 Utilities

Vehicle to
Vehicle Dealer

Vehicle to
Electric Vehicle/ Roadside
Tolls Hybrid Charging GPS
 Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected
$54 Trillion system-of-systems (OECD-based analysis)
This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘) Communication Transportation
$ 3.96 Tn $ 6.95 Tn
Education
$ 1.36 Tn

Water
$ 0.13 Tn
Leisure / Recreation /
Electricity Clothing
$ 2.94 Tn $ 7.80 Tn

Global system-of-systems
$54 Trillion
(100% of WW 2008 GDP)

Healthcare
$ 4.27 Tn

Infrastructure Legend for system inputs

$ 12.54 Tn
Note: Same Industry
1. Size of bubbles represents systems’ Business Support
economic values IT Systems
2. Arrows represent the strength of Energy Resources
systems’ interaction Machinery
Finance Govt. & Safety 1 Tn
Food $ 5.21 Tn
Materials
$ 4.58 Tn Trade
$ 4.89 Tn
 Maintenance :
Islands of Information
 Maintenance :
Islands of Information
• Proprietary systems
– optimized for specific tasks
• Each island speaks a different data “language”

CMMS Condition Monitoring!

ERP
SCADA
On one hand Condition
Monitoring…

…on the other hand

the integration of
different sources
CMMS, ERP..
 SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
ERP Enterprise Resource Planning
CMMS Computer Maintenance Management Software

Architecture
FEATURE FAULT
DATA COLLECTION SIGNAL PROCESING
EXTRACTION CLASSIFICATION

TRANSFORMED CONDITION DATA

RAW DATA DATA FUSION
DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATORS

FAILURE DETECTION AND EVALUATION

Historical data
CMMS
DATA
SENSORS ERP
FUSION
SCADA
W DE
O

Required functions
O R
R
R S
K

MANAGERIAL DATA
ACTUATOR

DECISION Remaining useful life

DATA
SUPPORT Reliability prediction
FUSION
PROGNOSTICS
Risk assestment
SYSTEM

CONDITION
EVALUATION

SMART BEARING
46
 SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
ERP Enterprise Resource Planning
CMMS Computer Maintenance Management Software

Islands of Information
FEATURE FAULT
DATA COLLECTION SIGNAL PROCESING
EXTRACTION CLASSIFICATION

TRANSFORMED CONDITION DATA

RAW DATA DATA FUSION
DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATORS

FAILURE DETECTION AND EVALUATION

MANAGERIAL DATA

Historical data
CMMS
DATA
SENSORS ERP
FUSION
SCADA
W DE
O
O R
R
R S
Required functions
K

Control Info.
ACTUATOR

DECISION Remaining useful life

DATA
SUPPORT Reliability prediction
FUSION
PROGNOSTICS
Risk assestment
SYSTEM

CONDITION
EVALUATION
eMaintenance
system
SMART BEARING

CMMS Condition Monitoring!

ERP
SCADA
Second challenge: The intelligence
Smarter assets will help owners to…
Leverage information to make better decisions
Anticipate problems to resolve them proactively
Coordinate resources to operate effectively
 Trend: Organizations are Getting
Dumber
All Digital
Data
Computing Power Growth

Growing
Dumber

Sensemaking
Algorithms

Time
50
 The Way Forward
All Digital
Data
Computing Power Growth

Context
Engines

Sensemaking
Algorithms

Time
Introducing … Persistent Context

“Remembering in a database (persistent)

how things relate to each other (context).”
 Sensemaking

Feature Context Relevance

Extraction Analysis
& Classification Detection

Persistent Context Publish

Notice Respond
Evolving Maintenance Strategies
Context Driven Prognosis 
Prognostics & Health Management (PHM)

Risk Based Maintenance (RBM)

Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM)

Total Productive Maintenance

Reliability Centered Maintenance

Computerized Maintenance Management Systems (CMMS)

Preventive Maintenance

Inspection
Run to failure

1930 1950 1990 2000

Context Driven Prognosis

RBM
Context
Driven
Prognosis
PHM CBM
 Driving Smarter Outcomes…
What is the innovation in SMART
bearings?
Capture Predict
(Risk analysis) (Risk Assessment) Act
(Risk mitigation)

…
Text Risk
Mining Assesment
Data
Platform
Mining
 From RISKs event point of view…
Event processing in a nut shell

Event Consumer
Event Producer Event Processor

57
 A smarter bearing:
addressing the needs of the industry
A dynamic infrastructure…

.…delivers superior business and services

with agility and speed
A smarter approach requires a
dynamic infrastructure
IMPROVE SERVICE
High availability and quality
of existing services today… … Accelerating the delivery of
innovative new services.

REDUCE COST
Containing operational
cost and complexity today…
… Achieving breakthrough
productivity gains.

MANAGE RISK
Addressing today’s
security, resiliency,
and compliance challenges… … Preparing for the new risks
of a more connected and
collaborative world.
No more crystal balls

Sharpening
the crystal ball
I’m running at
I need more 1434 rpm
grease!
I’m 75°C

The load is
455 N
I’m unaligned

My loss rate of
Remaining Useful Life
is 3172 rev/min
I feel fine but you’d
better check the rest of
the machine
 Prognostics: Let us be aware of its
limitations

An engineering discipline focused on

predicting the future condition or
estimating remaining useful life of a
component and/or a system of
components

Isn’t that what we’d like to do?

 Concluding remarks
Prognostics is about RUL estimation
but RUL is risk based....

Context driven approach:

Diagnosis without Prognosis and
Prognosis without diagnosis
 Concluding remarks
• Definition
– CBM is a set of maintenance actions
based on real-time or near-real time
assessment of equipment condition
• Purpose
– “The purpose of CBM strategy is
to perform maintenance only
when there is objective evidence
of need
– SMART bearings will
perform/support the
maintenance associated with
desired risk
 Concluding remarks
• Major Objective of CBM
– Extend system life cycle as much as possible without
endangering its integrity
• Goal
– Determine the “optimum” time to perform maintenance
• Enabling Technologies
– Various Optimization Tools
– Evolutionary Computing

Maybe asset integrity is not important....

RISK must be considered
 Concluding remarks
Prognostics and Health
Management (PHM) systems must
be highly customized to the specific
equipment being monitored.
SMART BEARINGS MUST
PROVIDE DSS IN A
STANDARIZED WAY KEEPING
THE KNOWLEDGE WITHIN
THE ORGANIZATION.