No 1

Year Mechanical Electronic a. Plot time series

2005 3368 20998
25000
2006 3757 21109
2007 4213 21679
2008 4316 21784 20000
2009 3737 17986
2010 4938 21177
15000

10000

5000

0
1 2 3 4

b. Describe the trend

Trend data menunjukan nilai positif.

c. Regression
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.761527
R Square 0.579924
Adjusted R 0.474905
Standard E 401.4594
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5

Coefficients
Intercept -448665
X Variable 225.5143

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.317343
R Square 0.100706
 Adjusted R-0.124117
Standard E 1494.572
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 4
Total 5

Coefficients
Intercept 500810.8
X Variable -239.1143

d. Interprete
Trend Mechanical sebesar 225,5143
Trend Electrical sebesar -239,114

e. Forecasting
Y1 = -448665 + 225,5143X1
Y2 = 500810,8 - 239,114X2
Y1(2013) 5295.286
Y2 (2013) 19474.32

No 2
Year Voting Age Population Woted for President % Voting a. Voter Participation Rate
1952 99929 61551 61.59473
70
1956 104515 62027 59.34746
1960 109672 68838 62.76716 60
1964 114090 70645 61.92041
1968 120285 73212 60.86544 50
1972 140777 77719 55.20717
1976 152308 81556 53.54676 40
1980 163945 86515 52.77075
30
1984 173995 92653 53.25038
1988 181956 91595 50.33909
20
1992 189524 104425 55.09856
1996 196928 96278 48.88995 10
2000 207884 105397 50.69991
2004 220377 122349 55.51804 0
2008 229945 131407 57.14714 0 2 4

b. Describe the trend

 Trend dari tahun ke tahun m

c. Regression
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.686837
R Square 0.471745
Adjusted R 0.43111
Standard E 3.400928
Observatio 15

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 13
Total 14

Coefficients
Intercept 398.72
Year -0.173126

d. Regresi Linear Lebih Mewakili Data

e. Y = 398,72 - 0,17313X
Y(2012) 50.39084

f. Aktual Voter Rate

No. 3
Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Jan 816 844 885 962 969
Feb 804 834 876 953 943
Mar 794 826 873 947 923
 Apr 803 832 879 952 917
Mei 802 840 889 954 910
Jun 808 840 896 960 905
Jul 808 843 902 966 904
Agu 816 853 916 974 902
Sep 819 856 920 973 893
Okt 820 859 930 969 887
Nov 833 876 947 975 884
Des 857 900 973 989 894
Seasonal 2445 2550.75 2721.5 2893.5 2732.75

d. Peramalan memil
 X X1 X2 Y No. 4
0.77 9.98 2.92 41.91
3.16 9.44 6.62 25.5 X
6.79 3.18 0.02 27.63 X1
2.64 1.82 3.62 3.88 X2
3.16 8.83 0.63 40.42 Y
1.03 0.18 3.17 -5.58
1.83 6.86 7.83 15.64
1.23 9.62 5.54 27.71 No. 5
1.82 9.35 8.63 20.68 SUMMARY OUTPUT
7.54 5.25 6.37 19.68
5.08 5.8 8.55 5.43 Regression Statistics
8.45 8.69 0.11 49.57 Multiple R
4.86 6.06 6.52 19.6 R Square
7.89 0.37 8.64 -20.18 Adjusted R
0.43 0.21 7.21 -23.15 Standard E
6.44 1.03 7.45 -14.76 Observatio
1.6 6.17 8.97 9.54
2.56 2.92 3.12 4.8 ANOVA
9.1 0.06 7.1 -9.9
5.05 6.1 0.1 32.25 Regression
5.41 6.96 3.66 29.23 Residual
7.03 3.32 2.46 16.25 Total
2.83 9.16 9.59 14.86
3.79 9.19 5.52 29.18 Coefficients
3.13 4.86 1.64 20.51 Intercept
9.56 1.39 7.29 -5.36 X
9.07 9.92 0.49 59.2 X1
9.18 3.45 6.02 3.37 X2
6.22 0.95 9.07 -16.24

Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803X + 4

Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803(5) +

No. 6
Variasi
83%

No. 7
Variasi
 Mechanical
Electronic

2 3 4 5 6

e the trend
a menunjukan nilai positif.

SS MS F Significance F
889992.1 889992.1 5.522082 0.078522979
644678.7 161169.7
1534671

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
192654.1 -2.328863 0.080352 -983558.7482 86228.56 -983559 86228.56
95.96716 2.349911 0.078523 -40.93326569 491.9618 -40.93327 491.9618
 SS MS F Significance F
1000574 1000574 0.447935 0.5399652814
8934985 2233746
9935559

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%

Upper 95,0%
717222 0.698265 0.523476 -1490516.772 2492138 -1490517 2492138
357.2711 -0.66928 0.539965 -1231.057904 752.8293 -1231.058 752.8293

chanical sebesar 225,5143

ctrical sebesar -239,114

Tahun 2009 terdapat anomali pada trend

665 + 225,5143X1
10,8 - 239,114X2

r Participation Rate

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

escribe the trend

 Trend dari tahun ke tahun mengalami penurunan.

SS MS F Significance F
134.277 134.277 11.60932 0.0046767629
150.362 11.56631
284.639

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95,0%Upper 95,0%
100.6098 3.963035 0.001621 181.3658114 616.0742 181.3658 616.0742
0.050811 -3.407246 0.004677 -0.282896477 -0.063355 -0.282896 -0.063355

Linear Lebih Mewakili Data

,72 - 0,17313X

57.30%

2010 a. Plot Data

868
845
2500
828

2000

1500
 2500

820
819 2000
817
816 1500
816
807
803 1000
808
827 500
2468.5

0
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agu Sep Okt Nov Des

b. Seasonal Data

Season 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 2414 2504 2634 2862 2835 2541
2 2401 2492 2628 2852 2783 2493
3 2399 2498 2641 2853 2750 2467
4 2413 2512 2664 2866 2732 2456

Season 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 D D D D - -
2 D D D D - -
3 D D D D - D
4 D D D D D D

c. Most borrow
Month Nominal Most
Jan 5344 5440
Feb 5255 Desember
Mar 5191
Apr 5203
Mei 5214
Jun 5226
Jul 5239
Agu 5277
Sep 5268
Okt 5268
Nov 5323
Des 5440

d. Peramalan memiliki kesulitan karena data bersifat cross.

 X X1 X2 Y
1
-0.26659 1
-0.097265 -0.188248 1
-0.022011 0.850562 -0.634663 1

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
0.988031
0.976206
0.97335
3.414581
29

df SS MS F Significance F
3 11958.63 3986.209 341.88902844 2.064E-20
25 291.4841 11.65937
28 12250.11

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
0.72812 2.325095 0.313157 0.75675892 -4.060502 5.516742 -4.060502 5.516742
1.050803 0.233464 4.500926 0.0001358637 0.569975 1.53163 0.569975 1.53163
4.788775 0.196317 24.39309 5.971E-19 4.384453 5.193097 4.384453 5.193097
-3.142336 0.212756 -14.76966 7.436072E-14 -3.580516 -2.704157 -3.580516 -2.704157

Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803X + 4,788775X1 - 3,14234X2

Y = 0,72812 + 1,050803(5) + 4,788775(5) - 3,14234(5) = 14,21

131.0719
108.7897

129.7612