Preliminary Analysis of Economic Feasibility of

Energy Recovery From Landfill Biogas In

Thermoelectric Power Plants In Brazil

REGINA Mambeli Barros1, Geraldo Lúcio Tiago Filho1

1
Professor at Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI), National Reference Center in Small Hydro
Power (CERPCH)

CONTACT

Contact name: Profa. Dra. REGINA Mambeli Barros; Organisation: Federal University of Itajubá
(UNIFEI), National Reference Center in Small Hydro Power (CERPCH); Postal address: Av. BPS,
1303, Itajubá-MG, Brazil; Telephone: +55(35)3629-1224; Facsimile: +55(35)3629-1265; Email:
remambeli@hotmail.com

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The present study aims at the numerical simulation of biogas production in sanitary landfills of solid
waste (MSW) under various scenarios for the evaluation and quantification of the volume of biogas
produced by predominantly anaerobic degradation of MSW. These simulations were performed
considering increasing values of the population, and for each value of the population in three different
scenarios of installed power of a Brazilian thermoelectric power plant for energy from landfill biogas.
Subsequently, their respective economic-financial analyses of developments have been made.
Methodology was based on the simulation by using the software "Biogas generation and energy use,
landfills," version 1.0 (CETESB, 2006). The use with the Brazilian generator Otto and a biogas
purification system (H2O, H2S and CO2 purification) has been considered. Economic-financial analysis
has been employed for calculation of the index of Net Present Value (NPV) by analyzing data on
various investments and revenues (including revenues from the credits carbon) for each simulated
scenario, considering populations values in which the annual growth of 1% during the landfill useful
life was considered, between 80,000 inhabitants with annual flow of waste of 13,784 t and 500,000
inhabitants (86,151t). For each scenario, three different values of installed power of that thermoelectric
power plant and their respective thermoelectric plant life-times of biogas from landfill have been
considered, thus resulting in 15 simulations. For these simulations the potential for generation of biogas
from 0.12 m3CH4.kg-1, decay constant of 0.08 yr-1, the landfill life-time of 20 years (2011 -2031),
MSW collection rate of 90%; collection efficiency of the biogas from the landfill of 60%, among other

data have been assumed. The price considered for the calculations per ton of CO2 (
 
), when
considering the carbon credits attached to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been as

8.00 R$.
 
and monthly revenue from the sale of electricity (R$) as 0.15 R$.kW-1.h-1 for the
considered period. Results have been showed favourable values for generation of electricity from
landfill biogas and have showed that the NPV of the project begins to be positive from the values of
3000000 inhabitants for population, in spite of higher levels of investment for power generation.

Key words: Landfill, Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW), Biogas and Renewable Energy

INTRODUCTION

With current development of societies, subsequently there is an increase in solid waste generation also,
as in manufacturing processes of durable and nondurable goods, as well for consumption of the same
by the populations. It should be noted also that the enlargement of populations in urban centers
increases, among others, the demand for energy to carry out their activities. One of the more usual
forms of treatment and final disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW) is the landfill, which has among
its advantages the simplicity of operation, as well as the fact that they constitute a safe way to final
disposal of MSW concerning to health public and the environment, when properly designed and
operated. Among the disadvantages of landfill sites refers to the occupation of large areas which should
be monitored for long periods even after the closure of its activities and subsequently limited use of this
area. Also, it has as byproducts of the degradation of MSW in predominantly anaerobic environment,
the generation of leachate and biogas. Both byproducts should be drained and properly treated.

Quantifying of the potential generation for LandFill Gas (LFG) is a major challenge, mainly because
the uncertainties involved on large geographic scales (Amini e Reinhart, 2011; Amini et al., 2012). In
case study from U.S. state of Florida, the uncertainty (coefficient of variation) in LFG generation rates
modeled by Amini et al. (2012) as a result of Monte Carlo computational method ranged between
±11% and ±17% when the landfill was open (in operation), ±9% and ±18% at the end of MSW disposal
in landfill (end-of-life) and ±16% and ±203% in 50 years after the end of the landfill operation (Amini
et al., 2012). Among the main LFG components are in higher proportions, methane (CH4, 50% -60%),
carbon dioxide (CO2, 40% -50%) (Amini et al., 2012), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), water vapor, a small
fraction of Non-Methane Organic Compounds (NMOC) among others.

In order to support the policies development, many authors intended to evaluate the LFG potential
generation aiming at the generation of electricity in different scenarios. Amini and Reinhart (2011)
have estimated the potential for generating electricity from LFG on a regional scale for a period of 25
years in the U.S. state of Florida, considering the uncertainties. The power estimated by the authors
(op. cit.) was equivalent to replacing the consumption of more than 800 million barrels of oil during the
considered period. Among the uncertainties, it addresses to the heterogeneity that represents a landfill
in their composition, stage of degradation, permeability, and subsequent different emissions of LFG in
different areas of the same landfill. Accordingly, Di Bella et al. (2011) have evaluated in Palermo
(Italy) the direct measurement of fugitive CH4 by using the method of accumulating chamber flow
(static, non-stationary) in order to obtain the contour map of CH4 flux from the landfill. Then the
authors (op. cit.) have compared with those emissions estimates from mass balance equations of CH4,
which results have showed good correlations. Di Bella et al. (2011) have evaluated the flow contour
maps represent a reliable tool in locating areas of abnormal emissions, in order to optimize the
efficiency of the collection system.

Several researchers (Di Bella et al., 2011, Machado et al., 2009, Amini et al., 2012) have studied on the
use of LFG generation predictive models by using an equation of first order kinetics for the decay of
organic matter material deposited in landfill, as LandGem® by United States Environmental Protection
Agency (USEPA, 1998, 2005, USEPA AP-42, 1997). Input parameters for the model equation by using
first order kinetics consist of methane generation potential (L0, in m3.Mg-1) and biodegradation constant
(k, in years). According to Amini et al. (2012), the optimal method to estimate the input parameters of
such models as the LandGem, L0 and k, is the use of MSW amount disposed in landfill and specific
potential values of methane in the laboratory scale. The parameter k can be selected by a regression
analysis and adjusted to the model by using the kinetic equation of first order. However, this procedure
is viable if exists available data on the collection of biogas. Otherwise, the authors (op. cit.) suggest
that the values for the k and L0 parameters can be obtained from technical and scientific literature on
the basis of local conditions: the value k is commonly used to 0.04 y-1 ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 y-1,
and a L0 ranging from 6 to 270 m3.Mg-1.

By using of data collected on-site landfill, Machado et al. (2009) have performed an evaluation of data
collection of CH4 in landfill in the metropolitan region of Salvador, Brazil, and have discussed the data
obtained in laboratory samples of MSW at different ages. The authors (op. cit.) have applied simplified
procedures in order to estimate L0 and k, for using in the kinetic equation of first order in the results of
field and laboratory. According to Machado et al. (2009) the values which have been obtained for the
L0 and k variables in the laboratory were very close to those measured in the field.

The consideration which environmental benefits of improved efficiencies LFG collection, as well as the
economic benefits of energy generation, the Carbon revenues and tax credits would be able to
geographically increase the value of the projects of energy generation from LFG (Amini and Reinhart,
2011). In this sense, studies of financial analysis and feasibility of installation of a thermoelectric plant
from LFG are in a very useful tool. Since 1998 exists in the Marche region of Italy a thermoelectric
power plant in operation from landfill biogas with two internal combustion engines rated at 470 kW,
which receives about 100 kton.yr-1 MSW and industrial wastes (Caresana et al., 2011). This plant has
received public grants for energy production from renewable sources during the first eight years of
operation. The expiration of these benefits has required the study of Caresana et al. (2011) on the main
options available in terms of legal, technical and economical management of the landfill. The authors
(op. cit.) have evaluated five configurations for replacement of existing engines, three in the original
site - a single combustion engine with or without grants, and a central micro turbines -, and two
configurations taking into account the construction of a new plant in a separate location - a central co-
generation with combustion engine and one with micro turbines. These analyses took into account the
financial payback period for a discount rate of 6%.

Barros et al. (2011) also have developed a financial analysis of sanitary landfills projects considering
several amount of population in Brazil. The results of the authors (op. cit.) have showed that the
generation of electricity from biogas landfill begins to be economically viable and their Net Present
Value (NPV) from the thermoelectric plant begins to be positive for values of population served by the
landfill from 400,000 inhabitants, in spite of higher levels of investment for power generation.

However, for the same population served by a particular landfill there are distinct possibilities of
utilization of a given power. Higher values of installed power in a thermoelectric plant from biogas and
landfill require shorter periods of time for those energies. This study aims to evaluate three different
scenarios of installed power for five values for population that has been resulting in fifteen simulations.
These calculations have performed by using of the software "Biogas generation and energy use,
landfills," version 1.0 (CETESB, 2006). A system of purification of biogas has been considered in the
use of a thermoelectric power plant (H2O, H2S and CO2 purification) and a Otto generator. As have
been studied by Barros et al. (2011), the values for the available power have been located within the
range covered by the Brazilian National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL n0. 390/2009 (ANEEL,
2009) on the thermal power plants with capacity not exceeding 5,000 kW, for which the power trading
and open access to distribution facilities and transmission have been ensured. Even, the power range
that has been preconized in this study is comprehended in the rules by ANEEL Resolution no. 77/2004
(ANEEL, 2004) as amended by ANEEL Resolution n0. 271/2007 (ANEEL, 2007) that assures the right
to 100% (one hundred percent) reduction to be applied to tariffs for the use of electric transmission and
distribution systems, focusing on production and consumption of electricity sold by the enterprises
which use as input power, at least 50% (fifty percent) of biomass composed of MSW and/or biogas
from landfill.

In this study, regarding to economic-financial analysis the calculation of index of Net Present Value
(NPV), by analyzing of datum on various investments and revenues (including revenues from the
carbon credits) for each simulated scenario has been employed. Thus, the aims of this study have been
consisted of performing a numerical simulation and quantification of LFG production in different
scenarios, economic analysis and subsequent implementation of a thermoelectric plant from LFG in
Brazil, for different scenarios for the period of time operation of the enterprises, as well for different
population sizes evaluated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Software for estimation of LFG generating

For LFG generation estimating, the software "Biogas generation and energy use - Landfill", version 1.0
(CETESB, 2006) has been used, which compose the portfolio of products developed by the agreements
signed between the Federal Government of Brazil, through the Brazilian Ministry of Science and
Technology (MCT) and the State of São Paulo, through the Secretary of State for the Environment
(SEMA) and the Environmental Company of São Paulo (CETESB).

The software “Biogas generation and energy use – landfills”, version 1.0 (CETESB, 2006) employs a
mathematical model based on first-order kinetic equation, as used by USEPA to estimate LFG
generation by LandGem® (Equation 1), whose integral is represented by Equation 2. The estimated
sum of the methane flows (ΣQx) is given by Equation 3 (CETESB, 2006).


 
 .  .  (1)
  .  .  .   (2)
∑   . .  ∑  .   (3)
Where:
Qx: methane flow generated in year x by MSW deposited in the year T (m3CH4.yr-1);
k: decay constant (yr-1). In this study, the value adopted was 0.12 m3CH4.kg-1;
Rx: waste flow in the year x (kgMSW);
L0: potential for methane generation (m3LFG.kg-1MSW). In this study, the value adopted for L0 was
0.12 m3CH4.kg-1;
T: year of the waste disposal in the landfill (yr);
x: current year (yr); and
 ∑  : sum of n estimative of methane flow rates (m3 CH4)
Equation 4 presents the estimative of the power available per year and Equation 5 shows the energy
available.
 .  !"#$  +
  %&.'%(.)))
. * . &))) (4)
&
*,-./0$-1 2   . (5)
%('345
Where:
Px: Power available per year (kW);
Qx: methane flow per year (m3CH4.yr-1);
Pc(methane): methane calorific power equal to 35.53.106 (J.m3 CH4);
Ec: efficiency of gas collection (%);
31.536.000s = 1 year (s.yr-1);
k: 1,000 (adimensional);
Edisponível: available energy (m3 CH4) ou (kWh);
Px: available power (m3 CH4.h-1) ou (kW);
365: days per year (days.yr-1); and
24: hours per day (hours.day-1).

The use in the thermo electrical power plant taking account the use of the Brazilian Otto generator
and a biogas purification system (H2O, H2S and CO2 purification) has been considered.

Economic-financial analysis

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) indexes are able to be used as indices of
decision among the several economic-financial models. For the present study, rates of NPV decision
have been considered. In addition to the data of flow of waste (t.yr-1) and its investment in power
generation, as revenue from the sale of electric power (Equation 7), the use of NPV has encompassed
their carbon credits from biogas burning and the generation of electric power. Equation 9 shows the
calculation of the NPV, that was based on a function f (x) described by Equation (8). The NPV values
were assessed for the years of the venture for each scenario.
+78 @$
Monthly revenue from energy sales = electric power for sale 69:;
8< . 0.15 6+78< (7)
&
BC  D&EF$G (8)

*H  I J DI. BC#K G (9)

Where:
i: interest rate, assumed as being 12% per year;
n: year evaluated;
f(x)acumm: accumulated values of f(x);
FC0: investment for power generation (R$);
FC: total annual revenue (R$);

For the simulations the potential for generation of biogas from 0.12 m3CH4.kg-1, decay constant of 0.08
yr-1, the landfill life-time of 20 years (2011 -2031), MSW collection rate of 90%; collection efficiency
of the biogas from the landfill of 60%, among other data have been assumed. For each simulated
scenario, considering populations values in which the annual growth of 1% during the landfill useful
life was considered, between 80,000 inhabitants with annual flow of waste of 13,784 t and 500,000
inhabitants (86,151t). For each scenario, three different values of installed power of that thermoelectric
power plant and their respective thermoelectric plant life-times of biogas from landfill have been
considered. The scenarios were called by scenario 1 to 15. The price considered for the calculations

per ton of CO2 (
 
), when considering the carbon credits attached to the Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM) have been as 8.00 R$.
 
and monthly revenue from the sale of electricity (R$) as
-1 -1
0.15 R$.kW .h for the considered period.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The amounts related to costs and revenues from carbon credits are presented in Table 1. The NPV
calculation is evaluated for each scenario and results are shown in Figures 1 to 5.

Table 1: Values for the costs and revenues for each scenario

Scenarios 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16

Rx - Wastes 13,784 17,230 34,460 51,691 86,151

flow
(tons/year)

Population 80,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 500,000

(inhabitants)

Useful Power 100 200 300 200 300 350 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,200 1,400 1,600
(kW)

Operating 31 17 3 22 12 6 22 17 12 18 16 12 18 14 9
time of the
Plant (years)

Electricity 71 69 253 62 78 130 44 47 56 37 38 44 29 33 43

costs
[R$.(MW.h)-1]
a) b)
8000000 7000 8000000 7000

6000000 6000 6000000 6000

Net Present Value, NPV (R$)

Net Present Value, NPV (R$)

4000000 5000 4000000 5000

Available Power (kW)

Available Power (kW)

Power (kW)
2000000 4000 Power (kW) 2000000 4000

100
200
200
0 3000 0 3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 300 2010 2020 2030 2040 300

-2000000 2000 -2000000 2000

350

-4000000 1000 -4000000 1000

-6000000 0 -6000000 0
Time (years) Time (years)

c) d)
8000000 7000 8000000 7000

6000000 6000 6000000 6000

Net Present Value, NPV (R$)

4000000 5000 4000000 5000

Available Power (kW)

Available Power (kW)

Net Present Value, NPV (R$)

2000000 4000 Power (kW) 2000000 4000

Power (kW)
400 700
500 800
0 3000 0 3000
900
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

-2000000 2000 -2000000 2000

-4000000 1000 -4000000 1000

-6000000 0 -6000000 0
Time (years) Time (years)

e)
8000000 7000

6000000 6000
Net Present Value, NPV (R$)

4000000 5000
Available Power (kW)

2000000 4000 Power (kW)

1200
0 3000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 1400

-2000000 2000 1.600

-4000000 1000

-6000000 0
Time (years)

Figure 1: Available Power versus Net Revenue Value (NRV) for each simulation: a) scenarios 1 to 3; b) scenarios 4 to
6; c) scenarios 7 to 9; d) scenarios 10 to 12; and d) scenarios 13 to 15
It can be observed from Table 1 that for the same annual waste stream, the cost for production of
electric power increases as the power station enhances the power and decreases the central operating
time (years) as well enhances the cost for production of electricity (R$.MW.h). For example, by
evaluating scenarios 7, 8 and 9 (all for an annual production of waste of 34,460 ton.yr-1 and population
of 200,000 inhabitants), for which three options of available powers has been considered: 400kW for
22 years of plant operating at a cost of 44.00 [R$.(MW.h)-1]; 500 kW for 17 years of plant operation at
a cost of 47.00 [R$.(MW.h)-1]; or even, 600kW for 12 years of plant operation at a cost of 56.00
[R$.(MW.h)-1].

The considered values for the available power were within the range preconized by Brazilian ANEEL
Resolution n0. 390/2001 (ANEEL, 2009), which ensures the implementation of power plants with low
installed capacity (with power less than or equal to 5,000 kW), as well as assures energy trading and
open access to distribution and transmission services under the current legislation (ANEEL, 2009).
Although, Brazilian ANEEL Resolution n0. 271/2007 assures the right to 100% (one hundred percent)
reduction to be applied to tariffs for the use of electric transmission and distribution systems, focusing
on production and consumption of electricity sold by the enterprises.

When verifying Table 1, it was observed that for the scenarios 1 to 6, i.e. populations of 80,000
inhabitants (or annual waste flow of 13.784 ton.yr-1) and 1000.000 inhabitants (or annual waste flow of
17.230 ton.yr-1), the financial analysis in NRV resulted in negative values for the periods of plant
operation, whatever the powers have been considered. Even to the lower values of power, with higher
values of operating time of the plant (as the scenarios 1 and 4) did not reach positive values of NPV in
such periods. However, investments values have shown that they begins to be attractive when
considering population values over 200,000 people, or waste annual flow greater than 34.460 ton.yr-1.
For example, when considering a population of 400,000 inhabitants and a thermoelectric power plant
with 800kW of installed power, in operation for 16 years, with a cost of electricity production by 38.00
[R$.(MWh)-1], will present a positive value of NPV since the year 2025.

CONCLUSION

The present study aimed to simulate fifteen scenarios of population served by a landfill with use of
biogas for power generation. The methodology has encompassed a simulation by using of software
“Biogas generation and energy use, landfills”, version 1.0 (CETESB, 2006) by considering populations
of 80,000 (Scenarios 1-3), 100,000 (Scenarios 4-6), 200,000 (scenarios 7-9), 300,000 (scenarios 10-12)
and 500,000 (scenarios 13-15) and annual rate of population growth of 1% for all scenarios. In order to
estimate the economic feasibility for the installation of such enterprises the index NPV has been
evaluated. The following conclusions have been able to obtain, based on the results of the simulations.

By increasing of the value of a thermoelectric plant power, for the same population served by the
landfill with energy recovery of biogas, also occurs the increase in the cost of electricity producing and
there is a decrease of the operating time of the thermoelectric plant.

When considering the NPV for each scenario to less than 100,000 inhabitants, the income from the
investments would not pay over the project life-time, i.e., the NPV values have been resulted negatives
for all scenarios between 1 and 6 during the operating time of the thermoelectric plant. Values have
been verified in the most attractive scenarios for a served population size greater than 300,000
inhabitants. For the simulated population of 300,000, 400,000 and 500,000 inhabitants, the enterprises
pay would be for the duration of the thermoelectric plant operating scenarios 7 to 15, despite higher
levels of investment in electricity generation.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We are grateful to Foundation for Research Support of Minas Gerais State (Fundação de Amparo à
Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, in Portuguese; FAPEMIG), by granting of aid for Individual
Participation in Conferences Abroad. We are thankful to the National Reference Center for Small
Hydropower - CERPCH.

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