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Atc Investor Relations U.S. Technology and 5g Update q2 2021
Atc Investor Relations U.S. Technology and 5g Update q2 2021
Atc Investor Relations U.S. Technology and 5g Update q2 2021
2
Table of Contents
2 The Path To 5G
• What is 5G?
• Network Architecture: 4G LTE vs. 5G
• 5G Standards Roadmap
• 5G Deployments – Country Comparison
• The Current and Future 4G Environment
4 Appendix
• Edge Compute Overview
• O-RAN Overview
5 Definitions
3
Historical U.S. Wireless Network Overview
Mobile Data Usage Trends
Historical U.S. Mobile Data Traffic Growth (petabytes per month)
4,961
3,636
2,699
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E
Notes: 2007-2021 U.S. mobile data traffic assumed to comprise ~97% of North America (U.S. & Canada) traffic
Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2016; 2014-2015 figures provided by Cisco VNI Feb 2017; Forbes; 2017-2021 figures provided by Ericsson Mobility Report (latest
June 2021), Altman Solon Research & Analysis 5
Mobile Data Usage Trends
Growth in usage has been driven by technology and device evolution
U.S. share of device connectivity standards (% of devices) vs.
T-Mobile and Verizon have not
Avg. Monthly Usage per Smartphone (MB) shut down 2G yet, AT&T shut
down in Jan’17
100%
15,274
80%
11,628
60%
2G 8,774
40%
3G 7,312
5,954
3,405
20% 2,451 4G
1,497
613 948
34 55 90 149 339 5G
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E
Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2016; Forbes; 2017-20 Figures provided by Ericsson Mobility Report Jun’21, Altman Solon Research & Analysis
6
Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Historical tower leasing costs per GB of U.S. Mobile Data Traffic have declined
at a 33% CAGR
$76.93
$26.84
$17.08
$10.92
$7.01
$3.19 $2.09 $1.58 $1.15
$0.76 $0.61 $0.46 $0.40 $0.33 $0.26
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Investments in tower equipment and technology such as carrier aggregation have enhanced
mobile networks’ ability to support exponential growth in mobile data traffic
(1) 2017-20 U.S. mobile data traffic assumed to comprise ~90% of North America (U.S. & Canada) traffic. Annualized year-end monthly rates.
(2) Tower revenue includes U.S. property revenue generated by AMT (includes Canada after ‘18), CCI and SBAC (domestic sites).
7
Sources: Cisco VNI, 2006-2017; Ericsson Mobility Report; Forbes; Wall Street research; Altman Solon Research & Analysis
Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Historical U.S. Carrier Investment: Wireless Capex and Spectrum ($ in billions)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
4G Coverage Capacity
5G Coverage
Sources: CTIA, BAML Wireless Matrix, Altman Solon Research & Analysis
8
Network Spending and Capital Intensity
Capital Intensity(1) has been steady as wireless network operators have
invested across their networks to support coverage and capacity needs
Estimated U.S. Wireless Cell Sites
(Big 3 Carriers(2))
Installed Cell Sites (thousands)
Capital Intensity
15%
14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
13% 13%
12% 12% 12% 12%
417
396
349
323
302 304 298 308 308
283
242 247 253
213
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
COVERAGE BUILDS
(solving for maximizing 3G 4G 5G
percentage of population with
access to the network) Coverage Coverage Coverage
CAPACITY BUILDS
(solving for meeting increased
capacity needs in areas
3G 4G
where the network is reaching Capacity Capacity
high utilization)
Time
Carriers typically build a wide, thin layer of coverage first and then invest in capacity to
meet demand as subscriber adoption occurs
10
Technology Progressions
We are currently transitioning from the 4G capacity stage to the early stages of 5G
Key Components of 4G Capacity Build-out
Why? › Add more aggregate › Allow multiple bands of › Add more aggregate
capacity to a given cell site spectrum to be paired capacity to a given cell
together, allowing for site by redeploying
faster speeds (Mbps) to be underutilized 2G/3G
delivered including spectrum to 4G
unlicensed
How? › Add additional equipment › Typically upgrade base
› Swap out 2G/3G
(antennas, transceiver station or add new
equipment with 4G
cards, remote radio heads, equipment (if new
equipment
etc.) to existing base spectrum deployed as part
stations of aggregation)
11
The Path To 5G
What is 5G?
5G is not a single innovation, but rather a set of advancements in spectrum usage
1G 2G 3G 4G / LTE 5G
Note: Maximum theoretical downlink speed by technology generation, Mbps (10 Gbps is the minimum theoretical upper limit speed specified for 5G)
Source: GSMA Intelligence.
13
Network Architecture Continues to Evolve
5G promises enhanced network capabilities
Air Interface
Internet
Lower Latency
14
5G Standardization Timeline
5G standardization is now complete on Release 15 (Phase 1) as well as Release
16 (Phase 2); 3GPP revised its timelines for Release 17
Today
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Release 14
LTE architecture enhancements & early 5G
technology targeted to reduce latency (CUPS)
- C-V2X
- NB-IoT (Machine Type Communications) Functional Freeze: Mar’17
• Supports transmissions in unlicensed spectrum Protocol Freeze: Jun‘17
3GPP announced an
Release 16 (5G Phase 2) updated timeline in
• 5G advances with increased focus on specific Dec’20 accounting for
use cases in IoT the impact of e-meetings
Physical Layer Freeze: Dec’19
• Multi-site connectivity for enhanced data rate in 2020 and at least
Protocol Freeze: Jun’20
• 5G NR for V2X through June’21 (COVID-
19 impact)
Release 17
• 3GPP defined (Dec’19) the scope of proposed study
Functional Freeze: Mar’22
and work items Protocol Freeze: Jun’22
Release 18 (5G-Advanced)
• 3GPP to initiate at YE’21 and frozen by YE’23
Expected Freeze: YE’23
Source: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, RAN #83, RAN #84
15
5G Deployment Timeline
The US, China and Europe are all seeing initial 5G deployments
Technology Adoption by Region
Forecast
2015 2020 2025
13 15 17 19 21 23 25
4G Launch 4G • T-Mobile covers 80% of German population with 5G (mainly 2.1 GHz,
3.6GHz in 50 cities), aims for 90% coverage by YE’21
Europe 5G Mobile
5G PoC 5G Trial 5G Launch • Vodafone 5G available in 114 locations across UK, Germany, Spain,
Italy, and Ireland and has announced plans for further expansion
5G FW
4G Launch 4G China Mobile got 160MHz at 2.6GHz, China Unicom got 100MHz at 3.5-
Asia / 3.6GHz and China Telecom got 100MHz at 3.4-3.5GHz
5G PoC 5G Trial 5G Launch • Shenzhen (Aug’20) and Beijing (Sep’20) have full 5G coverage
Pacific
5G Mobile
Source: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, Ericsson (Jun’21), Carrier press releases 16
The Evolution To 5G
5G deployments are under way, but 4G is expected to remain as the primary
network technology for years to come
U.S. market share of connectivity standards (2000-2025)
based on devices
100%
2021(2) 2022
Est. 2G shut-down Est. 3G shut-down
75%
2G
~24 years lifecycle(1) 3G
(1996-2020)
~20 years
50%
(2002-2022) 4G
Est. ~18-20 years
(2010-2028/30)
25%
5G launch in
5G
3G launch 4G launch 2018/2019
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
U.S. Total Mobile-Connected U.S. Monthly Traffic per Mobile U.S. Total Monthly Mobile Data
Devices (Millions) Connection (GB) Traffic (EB)
858 8%
17.4 28%
40.1 26%
378
X = 16.4 28%
Non-IoT
Exponential Growth in Devices and per Device Usage = Significant Growth in Overall Traffic
LTE Remote Radio
Heads
(includes RF transceiver
cards, power amplifiers, Larger antennas needed
mixers and filters)
Additional antennas
(with more ports) as Software upgrade deployed for
well possibly more for 5G on the RU
Massive MIMO
remote radio heads
LTE Baseband
unit (BBU) Pre‐5G BBU Upgrade Software upgrade eCPRI upgrade to
Deployed at the More compact, “5G Ready” for 5G on the BBU support 64T/64R
bottom of the data rates
tower
Notes: CPRI = Common Public Radio Interface, eCPRI = Enhanced Common Public Radio Interface
Source: American Tower Research and Altman Solon Research & Analysis
19
Ongoing Evolution of Wireless Networks
Carrier Aggregation and unlicensed LAA will continue to play an important role
in urban deployments, as will shared spectrum for neutral host indoor
installations
Network deployments are expected to consist of multiple layers—traditional macro cell towers provide
the wide area coverage, while underneath this umbrella, a combination of other technologies are
deployed to increase network capacity in demand hot spots, particularly in fiber-dense urban areas
› Macro sites expected to continue providing wide › Multiple solutions including DAS, Rooftops,
area coverage for high mobility users and be the Wi-Fi and Small Cell networks expected to
core of wireless networks complement the coverage provided by towers in
urban locations
20
Ongoing Evolution of Wireless Networks
Macro sites remain critical given vast majority of the U.S. landmass is either
rural or suburban
While Hetnets are used
in dense urban and
urban areas, > 80% of
the U.S. population lives
in suburban or rural
areas (<7,500 people per
square mile) where
macro towers are
optimal for wireless
network deployments
• >50% live in suburban
(600-7,500 people per
square mile)
• ~30% live in rural (<600
people per square mile)
21
5G Capabilities and Implications for AMT
5G Capabilities
True 5G targets substantial improvements over 4G
Source: 3GPP
23
What Does 5G Mean for Users?
Subscribers will come to expect a meaningful improvement in network
performance
Potential for low- Will enable much The number of IoT Networks will be More efficient
latency applications faster access to connected devices able to carry a access devices &
like cloud gaming content across the is expected to rise heavier content sensors with
and others ecosystem and exponentially load extended battery
across devices life
24
Source: Qualcomm
24
What Use Cases Can 5G Transform?
5G has a wide variety of potential applications
Smart Cities
Gigabytes in a second 3D video, UHD screens
Mission critical
application
Smart City/Massive Self driving car Augmented/Virtual Reality Gaming
Sensor Mgmt.
25
Interconnected Cars and Autonomous Driving
Source: GSMA
25
5G IoT Capabilities
The Internet of Things (IoT) is expected to experience rapid growth as 5G is
deployed
2021 2026E
26
5G Deployment – Spectrum Bands
5G will be deployed in layers, with different spectrum bands varying
dramatically on coverage & capacity performance
4G – all bands
Coverage
27
Spectrum Considerations: mmWave
Select initial 5G deployments have utilized mmWave spectrum to address the
most pressing capacity constraints in dense urban areas
Overview of mmWave Spectrum (over 24 GHz)
(Illustrative, Not to Scale)
24.25 27.5 28.35 37.6 40.0 42 42.5 47.2 48.2 64.0 71.0 76.0 81.0 86.0 102.2 109.5
A1
A2 B
(1) FCC has considered other bands in its Oct. 2014 Notice of Inquiry (NOI) for 24 GHz+ use for mmWave, but latest Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)
in 2015 does not propose those bands for mobile use. All bands may have satellite interference issues, but FCC has rejected satellite requests to not use
those bands for mobile use and in return has proposed to develop a “flexible rules” framework that would permit mobile and satellite to cohabit in bands. 28
Sources: Altman Solon Research & Analysis, FCC Spectrum Frontiers NPRM
Spectrum Considerations: Low and Mid-Band
We expect low and mid-band spectrum-based 5G deployments to become even
more critical due to more favorable propagation characteristics and
applicability across a wider range of locations
5G Low 5G Mid 5G High (mmWave)
Sub 2GHz 2 – 6GHz 24 – 90 GHz
Currently includes Currently includes Currently includes:
• 600-850MHz • 2.5GHz • 24GHz
Frequency • PCS • CBRS • ~LMDS (27.5GHz-31GHz)
Ranges: • AWS • C-Band • 37GHz, 39GHz, 47GHz
• 3.45GHz (proposed) • 64GHz (proposed)
Ideal for
capacity
Total MHz ~11GHz
Bandwidth ~100MHZ ~500-600MHz (~110X total 600MHz
Available: capacity)
Ideal for
coverage
Propagation
Very good Good Challenging
Characteristics:
High Band
Low Band Mid Band (mmWave)
600MHz 700MHz 800MHz 850MHz 900MHz 1.8GHz 1.9GHz 2GHz 2.1GHz 2.3GHz 2.5GHz 3.5-4GHz 24GHz 28GHz 39GHz 90GHz
AT&T
U.S. Verizon
T-Mobile TMO+Sprint Sprint (5G)
Deutsche Telekom
Vodafone
U.S. 5G deployments span low, mid
SFR
and high bands…
Orange
Europe Telefonica (O2) -
Telefonica (Spain)
T-Mobile Austria
A1 Telekom
Austria
China Mobile
China Unicom
China Telecom
SoftBank
APAC NTT
KDDI
KT Corp
LG Uplus
SK Telecom
… whereas most global
deployments focused on 3.5GHz
Confirmed for 5G
5G likely
(mid)
Existing 2G/3G/4G
Source: Fierce Telecom, Reuters, Telegeography, RCN Wireless, Venturebeast, Motley Fool, Company Press Releases, Altman Solon Research & Analysis
30
Spectrum Considerations
Overlapping timing & poor mmWave coverage characteristics drives parallel 5G
coverage deployment at low/mid bands with select capacity deployment at
mmWave bands
CBRS/3.7-
5G
4.2GHz
Capacity 2.5GHz 4G 5G
Bands
WCS 4G
PCS 4G Mid-Band (e.g. CBRS,C-Band
2.5GHz) is the 5G “sweet spot”
AWS 4G between coverage and capacity
31
AMT Positioning – Macro Towers
Deployment of 600 MHz, C-Band and other low- and mid-band spectrum for 5G expected
to result in incremental demand for AMT’s suburban and rural macro towers
Capacity for
~43k 95%+ Incremental
Towers Suburban/Rural Equipment
Low-Band Mid-Band
• AT&T, 850 MHz: “As COVID hit and the wireless networks became • CBRS (3.5 GHz): “We’re actually pretty jazzed about that. We acquired
much more suburban-oriented than urban-oriented, our strength in low- nationwide licenses for CBRS. We think there’s lot of benefits. We’re
band spectrum has helped…And so, we've been very focused on that, looking at a whole list of things.”
and we intend to be very focused on that moving forward.” - Dave Mayo, Dish EVP of Network Deployment, February 26, 2021
- John Stankey, AT&T CEO, October 22, 2020
• C-Band (3.7GHz): “We’re moving fast, with cooperation from our
• Verizon, DSS Low-Band: "The technology found in both our 5G equipment partners, to have everything in place as soon as this C-band
Ultrawideband and our 5G Nationwide [low-band] networks reflects a spectrum is cleared for use. This is a massive undertaking designed to
massive, multi-year innovation effort that modernizes our entire network add this game-changing capability as quickly as possible to the network
with cutting edge capabilities.“ our customers already rely on for consistent, superior performance
- Kyle Malady, Verizon CTO, December 17, 2020 when they need it most.”
- Kyle Malady, Verizon CTO, April 19, 2021
Continued 4G 4x4 MIMO, New band deployments (e.g. WCS, AWS-3) along with
Investments spectrum re-farming from low band 2G/3G (e.g. PCS) to 4G drive
continued activity
Significant Next demand wave driving continuing need for more capacity
and site densification including across suburban and rural macro
Expected IoT towers and potential next-generation use cases like edge
Demand computing, Automotive, AR/VR, etc.
33
Appendix
Edge Compute Overview
MEC Archetypes
There are four different flavors of the Mobile Edge
RRU
Endpoint
Cell Site Base Station
Aggregation Node/ Regional
Remote CO Datacenter
Carrier Public
Core Cloud
Access Node
MEC MEC MEC MEC
Enterprise Location Edge Cloud
“Micro Edge”
Typical Latency
N/A ~10-20 ms ~50-75 ms
(round trip)
Real-Time Data C-RAN MEC Big Data
Collection & DU Sites CU Centralized Processing &
Key Use Case
Analytics Local Data User Plane Data Analytics
Categories Caching Collection &
Monitoring
Leading Enterprise • Delivery drones • High frequency trading • Diagnostic & biometric
Use Cases • Predictive maintenance • Proactive data analysis
• Advanced telemedicine maintenance • In-hospital remote
surgery
• Manufacturing process
optimization
Leading Consumer • Autonomous driving • On demand video • AR/VR home learning
Use Cases • AR/VR competitive content delivery • AR/VR home gaming
gaming • Local social media data
storage
• Mobile data caching
37
Service Providers MEC Workloads
… with service providers – including wireless carriers – looking to deploy
different workloads across different archetypes
RRU
Endpoint
Cell Site Base Station
Aggregation Node/ Regional
Remote CO Datacenter
Carrier Public
Core Cloud
Access Node
MEC MEC MEC MEC
Enterprise Location Edge Cloud
MicroEdge
Notes: CPE = Customer Premise Equipment, DPI = Deep Packet Inspection, UPF = User Plane Function, CDN = Content Delivery Network, EPC = Virtualized
Evolved Packet Core, IMS = IP Multimedia Core Network
Source: Altman Solon Research & Analysis 38
Enterprises expect IoT, Operational business applications, and
Analytics to be the top 3 use cases enabled by Edge Computing
What are the common use cases that will be enabled by edge computing in your
organization?
I don’t know 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%
16% 13%
AR 17% 18% 17% 16% 20%
18%
In 2020,
21% operational use 16% 21%
Analytics 18%
22%
23% cases take the #2 16%
21%
spot from analytics
39
AMT Positioning – U.S. Edge Compute
Our vision is to serve as a neutral host for wireless connectivity, transport and
compute functions for multi-tenant, multi-service digital infrastructure
40
O-RAN Overview
What is O-RAN?
Open RAN disaggregates hardware (HW) and software (SW) solutions and
allows 3rd party software to run on commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) servers
Distributed
Proprietary Proprietary Software W/ Proprietary Software W/
Unit (DU) Software Virtualized Functions Virtualized Functions
Centralized
Unit (CU) Proprietary Hardware COTS Server COTS Server
vRAN
SW
O-RU
HW
MNO is using a single provider for all O- Hardware from Vendor A can be
RU HW (Vendor A) and a different swapped out when required with
provider (V1) for Open RAN SW compatible HW from Vendors B or C
OpenRAN SW could also be replaced by
SW from V2 without changing the O-RU
HW
43
Operators See Significant Potential Benefits from O-RAN,
but also Adoption Barriers
What is the main driver to O-RAN Other than cost, what are the main obstacles
adoption in your network? in O-RAN adoption in your network?
45
Definitions
Key Definitions
47