STUDENTS: YARITZA ORTEGA, ÁLVARO

GURUMENDI

PROFESSOR: MSC. JIMMY CÓRDOVA V.

SUBJECT: RENEWABLE ENERGIES

HOMEWORK TITLE: WEIBULL

DISTRIBUTION MODEL

DUE DATE: AUGUST 25TH, 2020

ACADEMIC PERIOD: 2020-2021

OBJECTIVE

 To determine the Weibull distribution of the wind speed at 23m, the theoretical power
curve for the generator, and the theoretical annual energy yield.

INTRODUCTION TO WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION MODELS

In general, wind power prediction methods are categorized into two groups: physical and
statistical. The first one implies physical considerations such as topography, terrains, local
temperature, and pressure to estimate the wind field more accurately and, subsequently, the
energy potential. The latter, on the other hand, uses statistical models to establish the
relationship between power and other variables as well as their historical and forecasted values.

The Weibull distribution provides a better fit for probability distributions compared to the
Rayleigh model and analyzes the wind speed data by using statistical distributions. The Weibull
distribution (named after the Swedish physicist W. Weibull, who applied it when studying
material strength in tension and fatigue in the 1930s, provides a close approximation to the
probability laws of many natural phenomena.

Weibull models are used to describe various types of observed failures of components and
phenomena. They are widely used in reliability and survival analysis. In addition to the
traditional two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull distributions in the reliability or
statistics literature, many other Weibull-related distributions are available. The purpose of this
chapter is to give a brief introduction to those models, with the emphasis on models that have
the potential for further applications.

After introducing the traditional Weibull distribution, some historical development and basic
properties are presented. We also discuss estimation problems and hypothesis-testing issues,
with the emphasis on graphical methods. Many extensions and generalizations of the basic
Weibull distributions are then summarized. Various applications in the reliability context and
some Weibull analysis software are also provided.
The Weibull distribution is often a good approximation for the wind speed distribution:

A is the Weibull scale

parameter in m/s, a measure for
the characteristic wind
speed of the distribution. A is proportional to the mean wind speed, k is the Weibull form
parameter. It specifies the shape of a Weibull distribution and takes on a value of between 1 and
3. A small value for k signifies very variable winds, while constant winds are characterized by a
larger k.

SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM 

Figure 1. General data.

To obtain the Weibull distribution, it is necessary to filter the data stored in the document shown
in Figure 1, since there are powers that are excessive, and these represent damage to the wind
turbine.
 Figure 2. Data filtering.

First, we must filter to obtain the average for 9 and 18 meters, respectively. After that, we find
the rugosity with the average values obtained in the first step. It will help us obtain the average
speed at 23 meters.

Figure 3. Average speed of the first thirteen samples at 23 meters.

Another reason to the data filtering is to discard aberrant values; this values will not contribute
to the appropriate analysis of the power curve and annual energy yield, as they are most likely
to provide a higher error percentage when plotting the desired curves.
 INTERVALOS FRECUENCIA PROMEDIO
0 1 16 0,10
1 2 50 0,31
2 3 427 2,64
3 4 2810 17,38
4 5 4530 28,01
5 6 3571 22,08
6 7 2149 13,29
7 8 1245 7,70
8 9 674 4,17
9 10 377 2,33
10 11 171 1,06
11 12 89 0,55
12 13 38 0,24
13 14 12 0,07
14 15 9 0,06
15 16 1 0,01
16 17 1 0,01
SUMATORIA 16170

Figure 4. Cumulative frequency distribution.

Technically, a cumulative frequency distribution is the sum of the class and all classes below it
in a frequency distribution. All that means is you are adding up a value and all the values that
came before it.
As we can see in Figure 4, the cumulative table of the 16 values give us a total of 16170; in
other words, the cumulative distribution must add up to 100%.
 Distribucion Weibull
30.00
28.01

25.00
22.08

20.00
17.38

15.00 13.29

10.00
7.70

5.00 4.17
2.64 2.33
1.06 0.55
0.10 0.31 0.24 0.07 0.06 0.01 0.01
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Velocidad 23 [metros]

Figure 5. Probability vs Wind Speed represented by a Weibull Distribution function.

Given the Weibull Distribution shown in Figure 5, we can observe that wind speed’s behavior
varies as it experiences sudden changes. It is also noticeable that the area under the curve must
add up to 1, as it refers to the sum of every single wind speed probability and it always ends up
being 1. The speed of wind varies from calm to the very high speeds. Wind is created when air
moves from areas of high pressure toward areas where the air pressure is low.

Seasonal temperature changes and the Earth’s rotation also affect wind speed and direction. As
a result of the movement of atmospheric materials transported by wind, driven by the energy
from the sun, climates are created, and weather occurs. Without wind, weather would not
exist. Wind, in its interdependent relationship with the other cycles of the Earth, like ocean
currents, is the vehicle by which water vapor and, by consequence, temperature variations
are moved from one area of the globe to another, creating weather variations within specific
climate zones.
 Figure 6. Annual Energy Production in KWH.

The curve shown in Figure 6, refers to the maximum energy obtained and at which speed
corresponds this energy produced. It is obtained in such a way that the Weibull curve is
multiplied with the output power of the wind turbine. We see that at a speed between 6 and 7m/s
it generates the maximum power value, which is 3081.65 KWH.

Figure 7. Power Generation Tendency in KW

Figure 7 shows the wind turbine power values that it can reach at different speeds. We see that
the curve begins to form from the speed of 4m / s and reaches its maximum value at 30 kW. To
obtain this graph we had to use the average speed and we did this through the cutting speed, this
is obtained from a fixed wind turbine. Also, the maximum power that was obtained in it was
30m / s and as we observed, for higher speeds the generator reaches, it can no longer obtain
more power from the wind.
In order to get the speeds, we must obtain the average speed at which the system gets the
nominal speed; thus, the cutting speed is the one that disconnects or brakes the generator as it
is the maximum speed it can withstand. If we look over the furthest right-side, we see this curve
starts to decrease, and it can even reach a minimum value and drop to zero in case the speed
value is quite high.