64 COMMS FUTUROLOGY
Just three years into the smartphone revolution,
it is reshaping our lives. William Webb considers
what further changes could await us.
being
mobile
HOW MANY times have you
updated your Facebook entry
from your mobile today? What
cool apps have you downloaded
this week? And how long is it
since you last beat the traffic by
being re-routed by your GPS-
enabled handset?
Even if this does not describe
you, it certainly describes a
large and rapidly growing sector
of society.
Bold, PR-puffed predictions
of what this sector would be
doing with its mobile phones
have often been wrong. Many
services promoted by mobile
operators failed at first –
including WAP, group
calling, picture messaging,
mobile TV, and location-based
offerings – although some
found success years later. New
technologies such as 3G
appeared unnecessary for years,
because there was little need for
their speed and capacity.
Conversely, the successes of
texting and, more recently, the
app stores, were completely
unexpected.
Then, thanks to an abundance
of appealing apps, the 3G
networks were suddenly not
enough – they became congested
through over-use. Now, video
calling – which has been
predicted for at least 50 years –
may have found its platform in
FaceTime on the iPhone 4. Time
will tell.
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Features_64_C2201R3706.BK.indd 64
Many of these failed predic-
tions shared an assumption that,
because a service is possible, it
will succeed. But ‘being mobile’
is much more complex than
charting the rise of technology,
important though that
technology is as an underlying
enabler. It involves under-
standing users’ requirements, the
eco-systems and value chains and
hence the behaviour of the key
actors, the reaction of complex
systems such as healthcare to
new concepts – and much more.
Everyone thinks technology
moves quickly, particularly in
computing and communica-
tions. This is true, to a point –
the technologies that affect
handset design, such as storage,
screens and processors, are
changing quickly. But the
cellular and Wi-Fi networks that With increasing congestion, home. Devices will learn to find
carry the calls aren’t on such a they have often gone down small cells and use them to
rapid development cycle. We are rather than up. download large files,
coming close to physical limits synchronise content and run
on the amount of information TECHNOLOGY TRENDS applications such as video calls.
that can be transmitted over the One key technology trend worth But because such cells are not
available spectrum, and to watching is the move towards always available, applications
economic limits on the number increasingly hierarchical will download video files
of basestations that operators networks, in which most whenever it is easy to do so,
can afford to install. The net communications end up being in anticipation of them being
result is that networks evolve carried over very small needed later.
slowly over years, if not femtocells, moving to larger The ‘green’ agenda will also
decades. This trend has been cells as users move away from have an impact on wireless
masked by recent claims of ever their homes and out of urban technology and usage. Wireless
higher peak data rates for areas. This is partly in response systems consume power and the
cellular, but the practical data to the limits reached for larger more systems there are, the
rates achieved in real systems cells and partly a recognition more power gets consumed.
have changed much less quickly. that users are deploying Wi-Fi at Technologists are working hard
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to reduce the energy require-
ments for each system but there
may be a consumer backlash
against a proliferation of
wireless devices, for example if
consumers end up paying to
power multiple home nodes.
APPLICATIONS
There are almost
as many incorrect
assumptions about
mobile
applications as there are apps
themselves. Operators assumed
that the point of mobile apps
was to save time or enable users
to do on the move what they do at
their desks. In practice, users
have embraced apps that are
little more than pastimes, or
that provide different services
than those available on a home
computer.
Perhaps a better way to look
forwards is to think of the
mobile as a gateway. For
example, a mobile can be a tool
that provides access to
Facebook, or a mechanism to
download and run games and
other apps. Taken to its logical
conclusion, the mobile could
access a site such as Facebook,
which then provides a choice of
onwards communications
channels – such as a voice call to
a friend. The mobile becomes a
portal and the networks become
data pipes that enable the basic
connectivity. This approach
would affect operators, who
would find their relationships
with customers undermined
and their networks being used
as little more than a utility
providing data access – just like
those of a fixed-line ISP. Social
networking may be enhanced
with features such as automati-
cally sharing location informa-
tion with trusted friends, and
enabling video capture from a
family mobile. Such applica-
tions would have to access
features on another handset –
but wouldn’t need the operators’
help to do so.
LOCATION
Location-based
services are likely
to become more
common. Basic
‘where am I?’ and ‘how do I get
Features_65_C2201R3706.BK.indd 65
there?’ apps can be extended, for
example by adding congestion
information, offering tips on
using multiple modes of
transport and the pleasure of
alternate routes. Sharing
location information with
others is also in its infancy.
Although Google Latitude
enables you to locate your
friends it only works in certain
cases with certain handsets. A
‘whereabouts clock’ for the
kitchen that shows the location
of family and friends is still not
available although it’s
technically simple to do.
Applications that overlay
virtual information on the real
world are also beginning to offer
what is being touted as
‘augmented reality’.
THE HOME
A number of wireless
applications are based in or
around the home. Over half of
all mobile calls originate in
buildings, most entertainment
is consumed in the home, some
parts of healthcare happen at
home and new concepts such as
smart grids could use home
networks to control electricity
demand. Many homes now have
broadband Internet connections
and wireless distribution using
Wi-Fi and this forms a platform
for many applications. An
increase in the number of home
applications seems likely,
although the ‘smart home’ is
still some way off – the costs and
inconvenience of enabling
wireless connectivity to the
heating, doors, appliances and
so on still outweigh the benefits.
HEALTHCARE
Mobile
applications could
add real value in
healthcare. With
increased pressure to keep
patients at home longer, wireless
systems can monitor vital signs,
ensure pills are taken, track
patients and alert healthcare
professionals as needed. This is
an interesting example in which
the business case is compelling
and the technology mature, and
yet not much has been done.
Healthcare professionals tend to
resist change; new healthcare
systems require rigorous
testing; and patients often do not
want to be continually
monitored. Such systems cost
money, and it is often the case
that the body that provides the
funds is not the one benefiting
from the savings. Unexpected
side-effects, such as increased
hypochondria and loneliness,
also need to be taken into
account. Despite these
difficulties, this is an area where
pressure on resources will make
the introduction of mobile-
based solutions to particular
illnesses very likely.
BEING MOBILE
So what will ‘being mobile’
mean in the future? It will be
more to do with lifestyle than it
is to do with solving everyday
problems. Owning a mobile will
be a little like owning clothing –
you need clothing to stay warm
and decent but most people buy
it for its appearance and feel
rather than its practicality.
Mobiles have a lot of parallels
with clothing – they are always
with you, they make a fashion
statement, they are needed for
basic functions but are chosen
for the other things they can do.
It will also be about reaching
for your mobile in almost every
situation. If you want some
information, to know where to
go next, to know where someone
else is, to compare the prices of
goods, to find the answer to a
quiz question, to see what your
destination looks like, or just to
keep up to date, then the
automatic response will be to
pull out your mobile.
Being mobile is about having
similar facilities when mobile as
when at home or in the office –
in a way it is about reducing the
inconveniences of being mobile
to the extent that people do not see
being on the move as any different
from being stationary. It is about
staying connected to friends and
family, to social networks and
more while on the move in ways
that only reveal your mobility if
you want to. It is about being
mobile on your terms.
It will also be about utter
reliance on the mobile – a
general equivalent to that
moment when you threw away
www.theiet.org/magazine 9 October - 22 October 2010 Engineering & Technology
65
your paper maps because
you started to accept that a
satnav can be trusted to
always work and to be more
convenient than a physical map.
Being mobile is also about
travelling light – because your
mobile (and its charger) is all
that you need.
It is about entertainment –
for filling in time while out and
about and for distractions
during the day. It is already
a replacement for newspapers,
magazines, books, music
players, portable video players,
games devices and more.
For some, being mobile will
be about using the mobile to
manage disabilities or medical
conditions, linking the mobile to
sensors and automating calls to
medical services if needed. But
this will be on the patient’s own
terms and to help with specific
issues, rather than just
providing general health
validation.
It may also be more about
ephemeral communications
than lots of ‘valuable’ communi-
cations. It is unlikely that
wireless will significantly
change transport, life at home,
or indeed life more generally.
It won’t be about turning on the
home heating while on the
train or automatically booking
train tickets when there is
congestion on the road. It’ll be
about fun.
Being mobile will be about
using handsets to entertain in a
spare moment. It will be about
the handset as jewellery, as an
object of beauty and fascination.
It will be about social connected-
ness, with the mobile enabling
many forms of communications
with many communities. Of
course, the mobile will still let
you to make calls and return
emails – but it already does
that. Being mobile will be so
much more. 
 This feature is
Be i n g
WeBB
based on upcoming
Mobile
B e i n g Mobile
book, ‘Being Mobile’,
by professor William Future Wireless Technologies
and Applications
Webb of Surrey
William WeBB
University
 Further information
http://bit.ly/eandt-weblinks
30/9/10 14:08:40
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