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End-of-life Modelling for Power Transformers in Aged Power System Networks

PAUL JARMAN1*, ZHONGDONG WANG2, QI ZHONG2 AND TAUFIQ ISHAK2

SUMMARY
Although the design lifetime of transmission transformers was 40 years or less, operational experience
has been very good with transformers up to this age, but as the majority of transformers on National Grid’s
UK system were installed between 1955 and 1975 it is important to understand and predict the future
reliability of ageing transformers.
This paper presents a statistical analysis of the failure history of the transformer fleet and its age
profile in order to understand the trend and whether/how the failure rate is associated with age. Data from
failures to date only shows random failure modes and no correlation with transformer age. As we know
that transformers are subject to ageing mechanisms it is not reasonable to base a prediction of future
reliability on this historical data. A further problem arises because with the asset condition assessment
techniques available, transformers are being replaced somewhat ahead of actual failure, so a method of
predicting the age of failure has had to be developed using DP analysis of the replaced transformers. For
in-service transformers a calculation of life based on the physical ageing process of paper insulation using
design data, loading condition and ambient temperature, using the normal IEC assumptions, has been made.
This analysis shows that for a typical network transformer, the ageing rate depends more on transformer
design and cooler operation temperature settings than on loading. If the cooler on temperature setting is
low and the transformer thermal behaviour is as designed, then the expected lifetime would be in excess of
100 years. Despite this there have been examples of age related failures indicating that operating
temperatures for at least some transformers are significantly higher than designed.
Further statistical and thermal modelling is required to fully understand how the range of thermal
parameters of transformers will affect the ageing rate of the transformers, their future reliability and hence
the replacement plans required to maintain the future reliability of the power system.

KEYWORDS
Transformer end-of-life, statistical analysis, transformer thermal model, DP value, power system
reliability

1. INTRODUCTION

Power transformer ageing is one of the critical issues utilities are facing, since a large number of units are
approaching or have exceeded their designed end-of-life. A good end-of-life model is required to optimize
asset replacement investment whilst maintaining system reliability. Analysis of failures of HV assets and

1*
: National Grid, Warwick, UK. paul.jarman@uk.ngrid.com,
2
: The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
 end-of-life analysis, particularly of power transformers, has been carried out since the 1990s [1-3]. CIGRÉ
working group 12.09 published its findings on transformer lifetime evaluation in 1993 [4]. This pioneering
work provides an insight into the failure rates and mechanisms and thus suggests the replacement strategy
from a system operator/asset owner view point. In addition, other utilities, insurance corporations and
academic researchers have presented their methods for asset lifetime estimation; these are referential
experience for the analysis of the UK National Grid operation records [3, 5-9].

National Grid has recorded the installation and movement of its 400 and 275kV power transformers since
1952 and failures since 1962. The analysis here considers the information up to 2004. Power transformer
installation number and capacity were significantly developed during the period 1961-1970, this results in
a large number of transformers in-service after 1970. The installed capacity has been steadily increasing
since then. Now transformers, aged over 36 years form the majority of the population.

2. NATIONAL GRID TRANSFORMER DATABASE ANALYSIS

2.1 Power Transformer General Analysis

Fig 2.1.1 shows the number of power transformers installed by year from 1952 to 2004. In the peak year of
1966 a transformer capacity of 23 GVA was installed. Since then installations fell up to privatization in
1989 when increased market activity required a somewhat higher level of investment, subsequently
maintained with the start of asset replacement.

A transformer in-service number profile is deduced from the installation chart and the transformers
removed from service due to failure and scrapping. This is displayed in Fig 2.1.2.
70 700

Number of Installation
60 600 Number of In-service

50 500

400
number

number

40

30 300

20 200

10 100

0 0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
year year
Fig 2.1.1 Power Transformer Installation Numbers Fig 2.1.2 Transformer Number of In-service

Not all scrapped transformers actually failed since there have been a variety of reasons for removing
transformers from service, these units would have had longer lifetimes if they had remained in service.

2.2 NGC Power Transformer Failure Analysis

There are 57 records of transformer failures, of which the 1st was in 1962. The number of failures against
age at failure is shown in Fig 2.2.1. The exposed number, (that is the total number of transformer years
service experience of transformers of a particular age) against age is shown in figure 2.2.2. The ratio of
these two charts is shown in figure 2.2.3 and is the conditional hazard rate against age. The conditional
hazard rate is the chance that a transformer will fail during a particular year in its lifetime conditional on it
not having failed before reaching that age.
 5
Transformer Number of Failure 800
Number of Exposed Transformer
700
4

600

3 500

number
number

400
2
300

200
1

100

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
age (1-53) age (1-53)
Fig 2.2.1 Power Transformer Number of Failure Fig 2.2.2 Transformer Exposed Number

Conditional Hazard
0.05

0.04
conditional hazard rate

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
age (1-53)
Fig 2.2.3 Conditional Hazard against Age

The average conditional hazard rate up to age 36 is 0.248% and is sufficiently stable and low to show that
the transformer failure rate up to this age is random. Unlike the traditional bathtub curve, an early high
infant mortality cannot be seen from Fig 2.2.3. This tends to show that factory testing before installation is
adequate. At older ages a single random failure yields a high value of failure density and therefore a large
hazard, as seen from the turned-up points after age 36 in Fig 2.2.5.

Owing to the limited exposed transformers and failure records, conclusions are arbitrary to make that
transformers are in the random failure period with constant hazard or the fleet step in the wear-out decades
with increasing hazard. In other words, to predict transformer population end-of-life, a conventional
statistical tool is not suitable for the truncated or right-censored data as in database. Individual lifetime
simulation by transformer thermal model suggested in IEEE or IEC loading guide is therefore carried out
in Part 3. This proposes another approach to predict transformer end-of-life.

A transformer is designed (and passed vigorous factory tests, being proved) to have sufficient dielectric
and mechanical strength, with some spare margin, to withstand the maximum operation stresses. The
normal ageing process, represented as the reduction of oil quality and paper mechanical strength, will
degrade the spare margin until it no longer sustains the stress caused by external events and thus the
transformer is prone to fail. However, it is noticeable from the past operation experience that transformers
do not fail due to normal ageing only. A transformer may develop a fault, in addition to normal ageing,
which results in a faster than normal ageing/degradation process, with a higher consequent probability of
failure. Occasions like these are treated as “abnormal” random events (e.g. system short circuit, lightning,
or/and switching transients). In another word, transformer failure may happen prior to the unit’s designed
thermal end-of-life.
Overall, transformer failure is a probability issue with three main controlling parameters: design, ageing
and external trigging events. The fundamental quantitative relation between the extreme ageing conditions
and transformer intrinsic dielectric strength is still lacking although, transformer thermal life, as the
operating years to lose the mechanical strength of conductor paper, is the baseline of plant’s end-of-life.
Therefore the expression of transformer thermal end-of-life is used in the following sections.

3. INDIVIDUAL FAILURE SIMULATION BY THERMAL MODEL

A transformer thermal end-of-life can be predicted according to its design, historical loading and ambient
temperatures since the insulation deterioration as a function of time and temperature follows the Arrhenius
reaction as stated in loading guides [11, 12]. Typically in IEC 354 loading guide for oil immersed power
transformers [12] this relationship is expressed as:
V  2(HS 98) / 6 (3.1)
where V is the relative ageing rate, θHS is the hotspot temperature in °C. The loss of life L over a certain
period of time is equal to:
t2 N
L   V .dt or L  Vn  tn (3.2)
t1 n 1

In which Vn is the relative ageing rate during interval n, according to equation (3.1), t n is the nth time
interval, n is the number of interval and N is the total number of intervals during the period.

Thermal model in IEC 60076-7 revision 2005 [13], incorporated with Pierce’s new study [14, 15], is used
to calculate the winding hot-spot temperature. Normally in UK, the power transformers have dual cooling
mode of ONAN/OFAF, which is controlled automatically by a WTI measurement. When the suspected
hot-spot temperature exceeds a certain value (a 75/50oC setting is valid here), the pumps and fans will be
switched on. The change in cooling mode is typically represented by changing winding and oil parameter
values in the thermal model. The effect of transformer cooling mode change temperature setting and hot-
spot factor are studied.

3.1 Transformer Dual Cooling Mode Study

For illustrating purpose in this section, one year load and ambient profiles are used to determine the loss-
of-life of a 240MVA, 275/133kV power transformer, with the assumption that the yearly profile remains
the same throughout its lifetime. In order to see the loss-of-life variation with load increase, the loads are
simulated with different peak load value by keeping the pattern unchanged. There are two sets of cooler
setting have been studied in this simulation. The first cooler setting is the fans and pumps will operate at
75 oC and turn off at 50 oC. Another case study is to set the cooler at 95 oC to turn on the fans and pumps
and turn off at 75 oC.

The transformer life expectancy can be viewed in Fig 3.1.6 with the assumption that the transformer
remains its yearly load profile throughout its lifetime. It can be seen a nonlinear relationship between the
life expectancy against the peak load. If the transformer operates at the load between 0.6p.u to 0.7p.u peak
load (for case 75/50), we can expect its lifetime longer than that from operating at 0.6p.u peak load. This is
due to effect from dual cooling mode: for the load less than 0.6p.u, the transformer always operates under
ONAN; for the peak load bigger than 0.6p.u, the pumps and fans are preferred to be tripped (OFAF) when
the hotspot temperatures reaching 75°C and would keep operating unless the temperature decreases to
50°C. This intermittent switch causes the nonlinearity of transformer thermal loss-of-life. It is thus
suggested that the individual cooling strategy needs to be considered in calculating the transformer thermal
end-of-life, as well as the historical load and ambient profiles.

Life expectancy based on 50% reduction of tensile strength

with respect to peak load

10000
Life expectancy (year)

1000

95/70
100
75/50

10

1
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
peak load

Fig 3.1.6 Life expectancy vs. peak load

3.2 Transformer Hot-spot Factor Study

The hotspot rise in the previous calculation is estimated using a hot-spot factor, H of 1.3 as given in IEC
60076-7 loading guide for oil immersed power transformers[12]. A statistical analysis of thermal test data
by CIGRE Working Group 12-09[16] showed that the value of H is distributed between 1 and 3. IEC
60076-2[17] states that, the hotspot factor varies considerably in large power transformer depending on
transformer design. The effect of assuming an H of 1.3 when the real value is higher is studied here.

Based on a typical daily ambient and load profile, the hot-spot temperature is computed by varying the
hot-spot factor from 1.3 to 2.1. The results are shown in Fig 3.2.1 .For this study, cooler WTI on/off
settings of 75/50oC and 95/70oC are both simulated.

Daily loss of life (hour) vs Hotspot factor

1000.00
Daily loss of life (hour)

100.00

10.00

1.00
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1

0.10

Hotspot factor
Winter profile (95-70) Winter profile (75-50) Summer profile (95-50/75-50)

Fig 3.2.1 Daily loss-of-life Vs. the hot-spot factor

The daily loss-of-life increases linearly as the hot-spot factor increases, as can be seen from each of the 4
cases: summer loading under 75/50oC, summer loading under 95/70oC, winter load under 75/50oC and
winter load under 95/70oC. In industry practice, the hot-spot factor is set at 1.3. If this is not the true inside
the transformer, the temperature can be much higher than expected. The underestimated hot-spot
temperature leads to the pumps and fans running less and the transformer running hotter with a
significantly reduced lifetime.

4. FAILURE PREDICTION BY DP VALUE

Due to the uncertainties from transformer dual cooling mode and winding hot-spot factor, it is considered
to apply scrapped transformer lowest DP value to predict individual thermal end-of-life. Again ambient
temperature, oil condition, loading experience and design parameters are the key factors to determine the
unit’s loss of life and thus its end-of-life. DP is a compositive index, which covers all the information from
the above factors. If a large transformer population can be represented by a small amount of scrapped units,
fleet end-of-life is believed to be evaluated.

The cellulose molecules are composed by long chains of glucose rings or monomers, and the degree of
polymerization (DP) of the molecular is used to describe the average number of glucose rings in the
molecule[18]. The cellulose degradation is a complex sequence of chemical reactions as a result of water,
oxygen and heat reciprocity [18, 19]. The DP value is a valid indicator of solid insulation ageing.

Many efforts are endeavoured to identify the precise DP values for initial insulation status and the end of
thermal life[18-21]. It is widely accepted that DP of 1000 indicates the new insulation before commission
and 200 represents the exhausted paper. The reduction of DP against age is concluded as a linear equation
via transformer ageing rate factor (k)[19], which is expressed as:
1 1
  kt (4.1)
DPt DP0
where DPt is the DP value at time t,
t is the time elapsed,
DP0 is the initial DP when the insulation assumed new, and
k is the ageing rate factor, which is a constant.

57 transformers owned by NGC are scrapped by Doble. The cellulose samples are extracted from different
points along the transformer windings. The sample from a suspicious hot-spot is tested to obtain the lowest
DP (DPlowest), and the highest tested value is treated as the highest DP (DPhighest) of the entire insulation.
The arithmetical average value between the measured highest and lowest is denoted the average DP
(DPaverage). The number of samples is variable depending on the scrapping on different transformers. Fig
4.1 concerns the reciprocal of DPhighest, DPlowest and DPaverage as those derived from Equation 4.1.

Besides 1/DPhighest, 1/DPlowest, and 1/DPaverage are fit into linear curves by individual trendlines. 1000 is
again accepted for new material and hence the 1/DP interception is 0.001 at year zero. The slope of
1/DPhighest trendline figures out a general ageing rate factor (k) of all the scrapped transformers. It can be
seen from the discrete points in the plane, the lowest DP values dispersed severely. The large discrepancy
gives the evidence of the hot-spot factor uncertainty, for instance, and essentially the variety operation
condition of individual transformer.

Transformer population end-of-life is predicted from the lowest DP data shown in Fig 4.1 via Equation 4.1,
as the steps as follows.
Step 1: Estimate the average ageing rate factor (k) of a scrapped unit by its given lowest DP (DP lowest) and
operation life (t1).
Step 2: Assume a certain unit will continue ageing by the estimated k, calculate the residual year to reach
DP of 200, as end of its thermal life. This is the remaining life (t2) of this transformer.
Step 3: Transformer operation life (t1) plus its corresponding remaining life (t2) yields the total life time, or
thermal end-of-life (T).
Step 4: Repeat Step 1 to 3 for each scrapped transformer. Their end-of-life are denoted as T1,T2,…,TN, N is
the number of scrapped transformers.
Step 5: Generate the arithmetic average of T1,T2,…,TN. This is the derived end-of-life of the whole
population.

9 Number of Transformers Vs DP Predicted Lifetime

6
transformer number

0
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121-130
131-140
141-150
151-160
161-170
171-180
181-190
191-200
201-210
211-220
221-230
231-240
241-250
251-260
261-270
271-280
281-290
291-300
301-310
311-320
321-330
331-340
341-350
351-360
age interval
Fig 4.1 distribution of lifetimes predicted by DP

The approach described above is doable if a considerable amount of DP values exist. In our case, only 49
lowest DP is validly extracted from all the Doble scrapped transformers till 2006 (others are reactors, or
power transformer suspicious hot-spot point is not sampled). Their predicted thermal end-of-life are
largely diverse (27 - 342years) as well as the ageing rate factor (1.17 - 24.35E-05).

Either k or T disperses significantly at a certain DP point. The discrepancy verifies the operation and
ambient variation among all the power transformers, and furthermore challenges the representativeness
from a small amount of DP. The arithmetic average of 46 scrapped predicted lifetimes suggests the
population end-of-life as 119 years.

It is well recognized that the end-of-life of an active transformer designed by EEC, located in London area,
under an average 0.3p.u load, for example, should be suggested by any similar scrapped units rather than
other plants. This explains the huge errors produced by the above arithmetic average lifetime. The
categorization of transformers and their representation by scrapped plants will be further discussed in
another paper.

5. CONCLUSIONS

NGC records 57 power transformers failure historically between 1952 and 2004, and derives a stable
failure hazard averaged less than 0.4% within 36 years operation. Due to the lack of proof for ageing
failure, the limited failure records and truncated transformer population, any traditional statistic analysis
cannot be implemented properly. Alternatively, the individual thermal end-of-life prediction by thermal
model is of indeterminacy because of the cooling mode interconversion and hot-spot factor uncertainties.
Transformer paper insulation lowest DP value is adopted to predict plant’s thermal end-of-life according to
the experienced linear equation, however a certain DP can only represent a group of units, designed,
operated, and oil-immersed similarly. NGC large amount of transformers are therefore lack of
representative scrapping plants.

Transformer thermal simulation and DP calculation may be improved by each other, since they both
concern thermal end-of-life and are determined by design, historical loading, ambient temperature and oil
condition. Besides the conclusions drawn from individual study should contribute to the statistic analysis,
by artificially “predict” the future failure in the blank portion of failure curve.

Either individual thermal end-of-life calculation or lowest DP prediction suggests transformer thermal end-
of-life, or the risk of failure, rather than actual lifetime. Transformer actual end-of-life is determined by the
mechanical stresses from external random events, based on the normal thermal ageing. Besides
transmission security criteria need to be taken into account when deciding the plant’s actual end-of-life,
from power system point of view. Particular for an aged grid, a cascaded system collapse triggered by a
plant failure is necessarily considered.

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