Tres suavizaciones

2. Método Estacional de Holt-Winters alfa 1 Nivel L

Suavizacion para estacionalidad beta 0 Tendencia b
Datos de ventas por trimestres durante 6 años gamma 0 Estacionalidad S
Estacionalidad = 4 meses

Período t At Lt bt St Ft Et Et^2
1 362 0 0 0.95263158 0
2 385 0 0 1.01315789 0
3 432 0 0 1.13684211 0
4 341 380 9.75 0.89736842 0
5 382 400.994475 9.75 0.95263158 409.129834 27.1298343 736.027907
6 409 403.688312 9.75 1.01315789 405.410131 -3.58986869 12.8871572
7 498 438.055556 9.75 1.13684211 363.672589 -134.327411 18043.8533
8 387 431.260997 9.75 0.89736842 499.020854 112.020854 12548.6717
9 473 496.519337 9.75 0.95263158 462.939721 -10.0602793 101.20922
10 513 506.337662 9.75 1.01315789 499.694411 -13.3055894 177.03871
11 582 511.944444 9.75 1.13684211 453.965999 -128.034001 16392.7053
12 474 528.211144 9.75 0.89736842 581.360378 107.360378 11526.2508
13 544 571.049724 9.75 0.95263158 564.710593 20.7105928 428.928655
14 582 574.441558 9.75 1.01315789 573.25687 -8.7431298 76.4423187
15 681 599.027778 9.75 1.13684211 513.872204 -167.127796 27931.7001
16 557 620.703812 9.75 0.89736842 678.403389 121.403389 14738.7828
17 628 659.226519 9.75 0.95263158 661.802344 33.8023444 1142.59849
18 707 697.818182 9.75 1.01315789 660.288513 -46.7114874 2181.96306
19 773 679.953704 9.75 1.13684211 622.397938 -150.602062 22680.9812
20 592 659.706745 9.75 0.89736842 768.584772 176.584772 31182.1819
21 627 658.176796 9.75 0.95263158 702.744649 75.7446493 5737.2519
22 725 715.584416 9.75 1.01315789 659.252422 -65.7475784 4322.74406
23 854 751.203704 9.75 1.13684211 638.025643 -215.974357 46644.9227
24 661 736.59824 9.75 0.89736842 847.983599 186.983599 34962.8665
25
26 ERROR 1805.96397
27 RMSE 112.153914
28
29
30
 Iniciación L4 = promedio primer año
L1=L2=L3=0
b1=b2=b3=0
stacionalidad S St =At/PerEst Para primer período estacional
Ft = 0 para primer período (t de 1 a 4)
b4= (1/PerEst)*((At+1-At-3/PerEst + …...)
Formulas
Lt alfa*(At/St-PerEst)+(1-alfa)*(Lt-1+bt-1)
bt, t>=5 beta*(Lt-Lt-1)+(1-beta)*bt-1
St,t>=5 gamma*(At/Lt)+(1-gamma)*St-PerEst
FT, t>=5 (bt-1+Lt-1)/St-PerEst)

Estacionalidad por Excel

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Column B Linear (Column B)

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Column B Linear (Column B)

Column F Linear (Column F)