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Analysing Risk For Sustainable Construction Project: A Concept
Analysing Risk For Sustainable Construction Project: A Concept
Sony Susanto1
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Department of Civil Engineering,
Surabaya, Indonesia, E-mail; susantosony5@gmail.com
Abstract
2. Literature Review
2.1. Project Risk Management
Risk management is an action or practice related to risk. Among them are planning for
risks, identifying risks, analyzing risks, developing strategies to respond to risks and
monitoring and controlling to determine how those risks have changed (PMI, 2013).
A risk is an uncertain event or condition which, if it occurs, has a positive or negative
effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality. A risk
can have one or more causes and, if that happens, he may have one or more impacts.
Project risk starts with the uncertainty that exists in all projects. Known risks are risks
that have been identified and analyzed, making it possible to plan responses to those risks.
Known risks that cannot be managed proactively, must be designated as emergency
reserves. Unknown risks cannot be managed proactively and therefore management reserves
can be given. Negative project risk that has occurred is considered a problem that must be
anticipated in its impact. The risk of each project is different from the overall project risk,
both positive and negative about the impact (PMI, 2013).
Positive and negative risks are often referred to as opportunities and threats. Projects can
be accepted if the risk is tolerated and balanced with the benefits that might be obtained by
taking the risk. Positive risks that offer opportunities within the risk tolerance limit can be
pursued to produce enhanced values. For example, adopting an aggressive resource
optimization technique is a risk taken to anticipate prizes because it uses fewer resources
(PMI, 2013).
Risk Management processes related to risk management planning activities,
identification, analysis, response, and monitoring and control of a project, most of these
processes are updated throughout the project. Here only the identification and analysis are
explained. The aim of Project Risk Management is to increase the probability and impact of
positive events, and reduce the probability and impact of adverse event on the project (PMI,
2013).
3. Research methodology
Risk identification based on literature review , while in the process of combining Triple
Bottom Line values (economic, social and environmental) (Hubbard, 2009), about the
calculation of sustainable performance index scores that refer to the triple bottom line
(economic, social and environmental Because sustainable assessment is ambiguous in
human judgment, it uses fuzzy logic
3.1. Research Flow Chart
Confirmation
Risk Identification
Yes
Figure 1. Concept
Sustainable of Research
Construction Flow Risk
Project Chart
The first step in deciding the concept of this research is identification according to the
literature review. The second is confirmation to determine the appropriate risk by the expert.
Third, using fuzzy logic methodology. In the fuzzification process to get fuzzy input to
determine the impact, probability in economic, social and environmental aspects. Then the
inferen process to determine fuzzy rules. The last step in the defuzzification process to
determine the level of risk in each aspect. After assessing the level of risk, the average
merging of all three aspects to obtain the level of risk in sustainable construction project.
4.1 Analysis
4.1.1 Risk Identification
Based on literature review, risk identification on sustainable construction project are
summarized as follows;
Table 1. Table Risks in Sustainable Construction Projects.
Source Source Source Source Source
(Hwang, (Ismael (Pavloff (Darda et (Apine,
Code
A Finance
A1 High cost of sustainable materials and √
equipment
A2 Investor does estimate high √
sustainability funds
A3 sustainable building shipments that have √
an impact on project costs and schedules
B Maintenance / Legal Standards
B1 Many green standards are currently √
voluntary; not required by law
B2 Changes in Green Building Policy √
B3 Pollution Restriction √
B4 Import / eksport restrictions √
C Performance
C1 Product performance and reliability √ √
C2 Use of untested materials, unknown √
quality of green ingredients.
C3 Impact of post-construction or √
sustainability operations and
Performance
C4 Concerns Green certification will be seen √
as a proper building code and good
development practice.
D Consultants, Subconsulters &
Subcontractors
D1 Contractors and subcontractors agree to √
standards that are not in their control.
E Regulatory
E1 The risk of regulatory demands becomes √
a punishment; if regulations become an
integral part of the meaning of being
green, there is a potential direct
economic impact on business.
E2 Risk that green regulations increase as √
the number of providers of green
products and services increases
F Technology
F1 lack potential technological √ √ √
sophistication and experience of certain
team members
F2 Not familiar with new technology √
G Labor and Material Equipment
G1 Lack of availability of green materials and √ √
equipment
G2 Materials and equipment are easily √
damaged / temporary
4.1.2 Data Analysis
In this study, risk analysis uses fuzzy techniques to analyze risk variables that have been
prepared, subjects are treated with fuzzy logic in handling ambiguity, subjectivity, and
inaccuracy in human reasoning when processing large and complex volumes of data. Fuzzy
stages include:
4.1.2.1. Fuzzification
Data Fuzzification input is done to change inputs/inputs that have p truth values (crisp
input) becomes a form fuzzy input. Fuzzification is the process of converting crisp numbers
into membership values in a fuzzy set.
Based on triangular fuzzy number (TFN) often used to give a more precise description
and get more accurate results. Fuzzy set membership functions are called fuzzy triangular
sets if they have 3 parameters, namely: a, b, cb R with a <b <c, explained by S (x, a, b, c)
using rules:
μ (X)
x
a b c
0, x≤ a or x ≥c
(x-a)/(b-a), a≤x≤b
μ (X) =
(b-x)/(c-b), b≤x≤c
Probability
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The talk of the risk probability variable model above is 1-10, with fuzzy set domains:
Rare (1-3) with the highest membership degree (= 1) in number 1, Unlikely (2-5) with the
highest membership degree (= 1) in number 3.5, Moderate (4-7) with the highest degree of
membership (= 1) in 5.5, Likely (6-9) with the highest degree of membership (= 1) in
numbers 7.5 and almost certain (8-10) with membership degrees (= 1) highest at number 10.
1 Moderate Major
Very Low Low Disaster
Probability
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The talk of the risk impact variable model above is 1-10, with fuzzy set domains: Rare
(1-3) with the highest membership degree (= 1) in number 1, Unlikely (2-5) with the highest
membership degree (= 1) in number 3.5, Moderate (4-7) with the highest degree of
membership (= 1) in 5.5, Likely (6-9) with the highest degree of membership (= 1) in
numbers 7.5 and almost certain (8-10) with membership degrees (= 1) highest at number 10.
Due to the level of Membership function of modelling the impact and probabiltas about
the economic, social, environment is the same, then the formation of a membership function
in describe as follows in the formula;
μ very low = 0 s≤ 1
(3-s)/2 1≤ 1s≥ 3
0 s≤ 2 atau s≥3,5
low= (s-2)/2,
0 2≤
s≤ s≥3,5
2 atau s≥3,5
0 s≤ 4 atau s≥5,5
0 s≤ 6 atau s≥7,5
μ Major = (s-6)/2,
0 6≤
s≤ s≥7,5
6 atau s≥7,5
0 s≤ 8
μ Disaster =
(s-8)/2, 8≤ s≥10
4.1.2.2. Inferent
In determining fuzzy rules to get risk level output can use the frequency and impact table
below, while the risk flow using fuzzy techniques can be seen the risk flow scheme to get a
risk rating.
10 M M M M H H H H H H
9 M M M M H H H H H H
8 M M M M M M H H H H
Major
7 M M M M M M H H H H
Potential Impact
6 L L M M M M H H H H
Moderate
5 L L M M M M H H H H
4 L L L L M M M M H H
Low
3 L L L L M M M M H H
2 L L L L L L M M H H
Very Low
1 L L L L L L M M H H
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Rare Unlikely Moderate Likely Almost Certain
Likelihood
examples
Based on the above matrix values, the following 2 of logical rules are used as follows;
Rules (A): IF LIKELIHOOD ALMOST CERTAIN AND IMPACT CATASTROPHIC THEN
RISK
IS HIGH;
Rule (B): IF LIKELIHOOD LIKELY AND IMPACT MAJOR THEN RISK IS MEDIUM;
4.1.2.3. Defuzzification
This study uses the Defuzzy Weighted Average method commonly used. This method
gives an average, weighted by the level of truth, from the support values in which all
membership functions. Defuzzification converts the fuzzy output to crisp value. This
method takes the weighted average value in the form of membership degrees so that z* can
be defined as follows:
𝑎. 𝑧
z* = ∑ 𝑎. 𝑛 (kusumadewi, 2010)
where z is the crisp / rule value and 𝑎 is the fire strength for each rule
4.2. Results.
The research concept uses the fuzzy logic methodology. The first step in this
fuzzification process is to do fuzzy input to determine the same probability information on
economic, social and environmental aspects. While the determination of the impact of the
three aspects has different information. The second step in the inferior process is determined
by fuzzy rules. The third step determines the risk rating of each aspect. After finding the risk
level, the concept of combining the three aspects with the formula below is determined.
This bellow plotting risk analysis to get a risk rating with the fuzzy logic technique above;
Fuzzification
Probability Statement
Economy Risk (Rx) Social Risk (Rs) Environmental Risk (Rm) Fuzzy
Inference
results of the research concept can be seen from the research scheme above. Job risks on
sustainable construction projects have an influence on sustainable risk ratings (economy,
social risk, and environmental risk). In each of these risks, there are calculations using fuzzy
logic with different impacts on the three aspects, but the probability used is the same. So that
the concept can be derived from the formula;
5.2. Recommendation
a. Risk analysis for sustainable construction projects needs to be tested for validity and
reliability to find out the reality in the field.
b. Because the concept of success is the incorporation of the three economic, social and
environmental aspects, the theme needs to be reviewed on one of the major aspects, for
example, natural disasters, economic crises, and others. Automatically because it is major,
other aspects will have no effect when the formula is used.
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