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  • Forecasting Using Facebook's Prophet Library

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    This document demonstrates how to use the Prophet library for time series forecasting. It loads airline passenger data, trains a Prophet forecasting model on historical data, generates forecasts for 12 future time periods, and evaluates the accuracy of the forecasts using RMSE. Key steps include defining the training and test sets, fitting the Prophet model to the training data, making predictions, and calculating the RMSE between predicted and actual values in the test set.

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    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library

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    This document demonstrates how to use the Prophet library for time series forecasting. It loads airline passenger data, trains a Prophet forecasting model on historical data, generates forecasts for 12 future time periods, and evaluates the accuracy of the forecasts using RMSE. Key steps include defining the training and test sets, fitting the Prophet model to the training data, making predictions, and calculating the RMSE between predicted and actual values in the test set.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    77 views11 pages

    Forecasting Using Facebook's Prophet Library

    Uploaded by

    Teto Schedule
    This document demonstrates how to use the Prophet library for time series forecasting. It loads airline passenger data, trains a Prophet forecasting model on historical data, generates forecasts for 12 future time periods, and evaluates the accuracy of the forecasts using RMSE. Key steps include defining the training and test sets, fitting the Prophet model to the training data, making predictions, and calculating the RMSE between predicted and actual values in the test set.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 11

    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    1 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    2 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    from google.colab import drive

    drive.mount(‘/content/drive’, force_remount=True)

    from fbprophet import Prophet


    import pandas as pd

    3 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    df = pd.read_csv(‘../datasets/air_passenger.csv’)

    df.head()

    df.columns = [‘ds’, ‘y’]

    4 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    df[‘ds’] = pd.to_datetime(df[‘ds’])

    # defining the number of observations we want to


    predict
    nobs = 12

    train = df[:-nobs]
    test = df[-nobs:]

    print(f"Length of dataframe: {len(df)}\n"


    f"Length of train set: {len(train)}\n"
    f"Length of test set: {len(test)}")

    5 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    # Creating an instance of the Prophet model


    prophet = Prophet()

    # fitting Prophet model to the train set


    prophet.fit(train)

    future = prophet.make_future_dataframe(periods=nobs,
    freq=’MS’)

    6 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    forecast = prophet.predict(future)

    fig1 = prophet.plot(forecast)

    from fbprophet.plot import add_changepoint_to_plot

    fig1 = prophet.plot(forecast)

    # viewing the points in time where the trajectory of


    the price index changed
    a = add_changepoints_to_plot(fig1.gca(), prophet,

    7 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    forecast)

    8 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    from statsmodels.tools.eval_measures import rmse

    # Remember nobs = 12

    9 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    y_pred = forecast.iloc[-nobs:][‘yhat’]
    y_true = test['y']

    rmse(y_pred, y_true)

    10 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM
    Forecasting Using Facebook’s Prophet Library | by Christoph... https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/forecasting-using-face...

    11 of 11 11/8/2021, 2:24 PM

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