State of The Future

The Millennium Project
2015–16
STATE OF THE FUTURE

The 2015‐16 State of the Future is dedicated to Frank Catanzaro, the former Cyber Node
Chair of The Millennium Project whose altruism and information systems dexterity
greatly improved The Millennium Project to become smarter, more compassionate, and
Apple‐savvy than we would have otherwise been.
JEROME C. GLENN, ELIZABETH FLORESCU,

and THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT TEAM
Recommendations
A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically oriented exploration of the transforming world order.

Mihaly Simai, former Chairman, United Nations University
The State of the Future can make a difference in the world. Well done.
Wendell Bell, Professor Emeritus, Yale University
Global intelligence on the future of the world in the palm of your hand.
KurzweilAI News
So important for many people around the world.

Eleonora Masini, former Secretary and President, World Futures Studies Federation
Absolutely worth the reader’s time… takes the reader much farther forward than most thinking.
Defense & Foreign Affairs Policy Journal
Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient.

Willian Halal, Foresight Journal
Authoritative compendium of what we know about the future of humanity and our planet.
The Futurist
Certainly, the guide to make better decisions and achieve success.

Julio Millán, President Coraza Corporación Azteca
Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society.
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
ISBN: 978-0-9882639-2-5 Library of Congress Control No: 98-646672

© 2015 The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW +1-202-686-5179 (F/P)
Washington, D.C. 20016-4055 U.S.A. info@millennium-project.org
The 2015–16 State of the Future is a publication of The Millennium Project, an international participatory
think tank established in 1996.
2015-16 State of the Future
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
FORWARD
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY…………………………………………..……………………..1
GLOBAL CHALLENGES……………………………………………………….………12
1. Sustainable Development and Climate Change………………..……….14
2. Water and Sanitation…………………………………………….…………22
3. Population and Resources…………………………………….…………..31
4. Democratization………………………………………………….…………40
5. Global Foresight and Decisionmaking……………...……….……………50
6. Global Convergence of ICT……………………….…………….…………58
7. Rich-Poor Gap………………………………………………………………65
8. Health Issues………………………………………….……….……………81
9. Education and Leaning………………………………………….…………97
10. Peace and Conflict…………………………………….……….……….....103
11. Status of Women……………………………………………….…….……116
12. Transnational Organized Crime…………………………………….……128
13. Energy…………………………………………….…………………...……135
14. Science and Technology………………………………………………….143
15. Global Ethics………………………………………………………….……150
STATE OF THE FUTURE INDEX…………………………………………….…………158

FUTURE OF WORK/TECHNOLOGY 2050……………………………..….………..…182
APPENDICES
Millennium Project Node Chairs, Board Members & Sponsors……………206
List of Tables, Boxes and Graphs………………………………….……….…214
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS………………………………………..…..………217
OTHER MILLENNIUM PROJECT RESEARCH………………………………………..…220
The Millennium Project ii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Chairs and Co-chairs of the 56 Millennium Project Nodes, plus their members who help
select participants, translate questionnaires and studies, initiate projects, review text, and conduct
interviews, are essential for the success of the research and entire work of The Millennium
Project. Their unique contributions to this and previous years’ annual State of the Future reports
are greatly appreciated.
Jerome Glenn and Elizabeth Florescu were partners in the research for this volume, with
research and administrative assistance from Kelley Glenn, Hayato Kobayashi, and John Young.
Special acknowledgment is given to Jerome Glenn for the executive summary, leadership on the
cumulative research on the 15 Global Challenges, and design of the Future Work/Technology
2050 Real-Time Delphi and with Elizabeth Florescu the analysis of the results; to Theodore
Gordon and Elizabeth Florescu for computing the 2015 State of the Future Index, and to Zoltan
Bartha, Piotr Jutkiewicz, Petr Kladivo, Ivan Klinec, Norbert Kołos, Pavel Nováček, and Klara
Szita Toth for the National SOFIs.
Reviewers for the 15 Global Challenges included: Jay Albanese, Jessica Baptista, Emira
Bečić, Guillermina Benavides, Peter Bishop, Thomas Buckholtz, Ralf Büsser, Dennis Bushnell,
Enrique Cabrero, Magdalena Carral, Arturo Cervantes, Kristie Ebi, Epaminondas
Christofilopoulos, José Cordeiro, Cornelia Daheim, Jessica De Alba, Eric Drexler, Greg Folkers,
Aranzazu Martínez Galeana, Agustín Barrios Gómez, Theodore Gordon, Abhik Gupta, Bill Halal,
Barry Hughes, James Hughes, Piotr Jutkiewicz, Ted Kahn, Cadell Last, Michael Marien, Cristina
Puentes-Markides, Lourdes Melgar, Czesław Mesjasz, Tomás Miklos, Thomas Murphy, Okhwa
Lee, Concepción Olavarrieta, Charles Ostman, Charles Perrottet, Jessica Prendergast, Sheila
Ronis, Kamal Shaeer, Mihaly Simai, Paul Werbos, Peter Yim, Raquel Zabala, Ibon Zugasti, and
Patricia Zuñiga
The Millennium Project Interns who conducted research for this report and the Global
Futures Intelligence System that updates this report were: Polina Bayramova, Johanna van den
Berg, N’kauh Nathan-Régis Bodje, Marine d’Elloy, Syed Aziz Farhan, Katherine Gillis, Michael
Harris, Abby Hart, Mary Herman, Sumath Kamalakannan, Aram Kim, Ryan Kuhns, Jude
Herijadi Kurniawan, Cadell Last, Ke Li, Jeff Listerman, Jia Lou, Brandon Metzger, Ojashwi
Pathak, Brandon Ramsay, Dheeya Rizmie, Nicholas Ryu, Duncan Sanders, Sheena Singh,
Andreia Torres, Miks Upenieks, Adam Webb, and Yoon-Ji Yang.
Special thanks to Wesley Boyer, for the development of the Global Futures Intelligence
System at themp.org that was used extensively to produce this report. Updating the 15 Global
Challenges of the State of the Future is an on-going process in the Global Futures Intelligence
System, which also has weblinks to references for much of the data in this report that is not
visible in this print edition. There are also references to Millennium Project research in GFIS
available online; e.g., see GFIS for a 39-chapter collection of Futures Research Methodologies.
The Millennium Project iii

Linda Starke provided editing and John Young provided proofreading and content review
assistance. Kelley Glenn did the production and layout of this publication with assistance from
Elizabeth Florescu. Special thank you goes to Elena Yepes for her infographics for the 15 Global
Challenges.
Cover art by A. Sokol/ EnviroDynamix™ Group compliments of Alexandra Sokol, with
enhancements by Kelley Glenn.
…And special gratitude for donations from readers like you, who help our work continue.
Contributions to The Millennium Project are tax-deductible for taxpayers in the United States, as
we are a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization.
The Millennium Project iv

FOREWORD
The 2015–16 State of the Future brings together an extraordinarily diverse set of data,
information, intelligence, and hopefully some wisdom about the future. This is the eighteenth
edition of State of the Future. We believe that each edition is better than the last. We update data,
improve insights, and respond to feedback. You can add your feedback online at the Global
Futures Intelligence System (themp.org). There is a comment icon in the lower right corner of
the executive summary and the same for every one of the 15 Global Challenges.
The short overviews of the 15 Global Challenges are getting longer and more detailed each
year. In addition to giving you possibly the best overview in existence for each challenge, think
of these as a reference to keep on your desk to return to as needed. Just as you would not speed-
read the encyclopedia, this section should also be taken in short doses. Take your time to reflect
on what you are reading in each challenge and in the sections on the State of the Future Index
and the Future Work/Technology 2050.
This is the second year we have used the Global Futures Intelligence System to update and
improve the State of the Future report. The challenges in GFIS are updated daily from news
aggregations, scanning items, situation charts, and other resources, which has led to greater detail
and depth than in the previous edition.
While this report presents the distilled results of recent research by The Millennium Project,
GFIS contains the detailed background and data for that research, plus all of The Millennium
Project’s research since its founding in 1996. It also contains the largest internationally peer-
reviewed set of methods to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one source. Readers of
this report should subscribe to GFIS to keep up to date and participate in improving insights
about future possibilities.
The purpose of futures research is to systematically explore, create, and test both possible
and desirable futures in order to improve decisions. Just as the person on top of the mast on old
sailing ships used to point out the rocks and safe channels to the captain below for the smooth
running of the ship through uncharted waters, so too futurists with foresight systems for the
world can point out problems and opportunities to leaders and the public around the world. Since
decision-making is increasingly affected by globalization, global futures research is increasingly
valuable for decision-making by individuals, groups, and institutions. The quality of democracies
emerging around the world is enhanced by better-informed publics; understanding issues and
opportunities in this report can contribute to improved democratic decision-making.
This report is for thought leaders, decision-makers, and all those who care about the world
and its future. Readers will learn how their interests fit into the global situation and how the
global situation may affect them and their interests. The State of the Future and GFIS provide an
additional eye on global change. These are information utilities that people can draw from as
relevant to their unique needs. They provide an overview of the global strategic landscape.
The Millennium Project v

Business executives use the research as input to their strategic planning. University professors,
futurists, and other consultants find this information useful in teaching and research.
The Millennium Project is a global participatory think tank of futurists, scholars, scientists,
business planners, and policy makers who work for international organizations, governments,
corporations, NGOs, and universities and who volunteer their time to improve each edition of the
State of the Future. It was selected to be among the top 10 think tanks in the world for new ideas
and paradigms by the 2013 and 2014 University of Pennsylvania’s GoTo Think Tank Index and
as a 2012 Computerworld Honors Laureate for its innovations in collective intelligence systems.
The purposes of The Millennium Project are to assist in organizing futures research, improve
thinking about the future, and make that thinking available through a variety of media for
consideration in policymaking, advanced training, public education, and feedback, ideally in
order to accumulate wisdom about potential futures.
The Project’s diversity of opinions and global views is ensured by its 56 Nodes around the
world. These are groups of individuals and organizations that interconnect global and local
perspectives. They identify participants, conduct interviews, translate and distribute
questionnaires, and conduct research and conferences. It is through their contributions that the
world picture of this report and indeed all of The Millennium Project’s work emerge. The Node
Chairs and Co-chairs are listed in the Appendix.
Through its research, publications, addresses at conferences, and Nodes, The Millennium
Project helps to nurture an international collaborative spirit of free inquiry and feedback for
increasing collective intelligence to improve social, technical, and environmental viability for
human development. Feedback on any sections of the book is most welcome at
<Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org> and may help shape the next State of the Future,
GFIS, and the general work of The Millennium Project.
Jerome C. Glenn Elizabeth Florescu The Millennium Project Team

Executive Director Director of Research Staff, 56 Nodes, Reviewers, and
The Millennium Project The Millennium Project feedback from readers like you.
The Millennium Project vi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Another 2.3 billion people are expected to be added to the planet in just 35 years. By 2050, new
systems for food, water, energy, education, health, economics, and global governance will be
needed to prevent massive and complex human and environmental disasters. The Millennium
Project’s futures research shows that most of these problems are preventable and that a far better
future than today is possible. Brilliant insights, policy and social innovations, scientific and
technological breakthroughs, and new kinds of leadership are emerging around the world. The
interactions among future artificial intelligences, countless new lifeforms from synthetic biology,
proliferation of nano-molecular assemblies, and robotics could produce a future barely
recognizable to science fiction today.
The future can be much better than most pessimists understand, but it could also be far worse
than most optimists are willing to explore. We need serious, coherent, and integrated
understandings of mega-problems and opportunities to identify and implement strategies on the
scale necessary to address global challenges. This report should be used as a reference to further
that understanding.
After 18 years of producing the State of the Future reports, it is increasingly clear that
humanity has the resources to address its global challenges, but it is not clear that an integrated
set of global and local strategies will be implemented together and on the scale necessary to build
a better future. As Pope Francis said in His Encyclical Letter, “Halfway measures simply delay
the inevitable disaster.”
Our challenges are transnational in nature, requiring transnational strategies. Doing
everything right to address climate change or counter organized crime in one country will not
make enough of a difference if others do not act as well. We need coordinated transnational
implementation. Government and corporate future strategy units are proliferating, but they have
yet to sufficiently influence decisions on the scale and speed necessary to address the complex,
integrated, and global nature of accelerating change. Intergovernmental organizations and public-
private collaborations are also increasing, but they too have to become far more effective.
Humanity needs a global, multifaceted, general long-term view of the future with bold long-
range goals to excite the imagination and inspire international collaboration.
For example, the U.S. and China could set a goal to reduce atmospheric CO2 from the current
400 ppm to 350 ppm and invite the rest of the world to participate in a NASA-like program to
The Millennium Project 1

achieve it. They did make a joint announcement in November 2014; they pledged GHG
emissions caps, collaboration on cleaner energy research, carbon capture and reuse, Eco-smart
City designs, and a phasedown of the use of hydrofluorocarbons. This is progress, but it lacks a
bold goal to inspire goal action. The UN is proposing 17 sustainable development goals, such as
ending poverty and hunger by 2030.
The executive summary of the 2008 State of the Future stated:
Half the world is vulnerable to social instability and violence due to rising food
and energy prices, failing states, falling water tables, climate change, decreasing
water-food-energy supply per person, desertification, and increasing migrations
due to political, environmental, and economic conditions.
Unfortunately, these factors contributing to social instability have continued to worsen over
the past seven years, leading to the social unrest we see today in many parts of the world.
While much of the world’s attention focuses on the horrors of extremists and intrastate
conflicts, thought-leaders such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates are warning the
world about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence growing beyond human control.
Whether AI can evolve into the nightmares of science fiction or not, it is certain that it and other
future technologies (e.g., robotics, synthetic biology, computational science, nanotechnology,
quantum computing, 3D and 4D printing, Internet of Things, cognitive science, self-driving
vehicles, and synergies among these) will change what we think is possible over the next several
decades, but they could also lead to massive unemployment.
Concentration of wealth is increasing. Income gaps are widening. Jobless economic growth
seems the new norm. Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor.
Future technologies can replace much of human labor. Long-term structural unemployment is a
business-as-usual forecast.
The Future Work/Technology 2050 Real-Time Delphi conducted by The Millennium Project
explains in the last section of this report that the nature of work and political-economic systems
may have to change by 2050 or else there could be massive long-term unemployment. Avoiding
this could lead to the beginnings of a new kind of self-actualization economy in transition from
issues of scarcity to issues of abundance.
Future artificial intelligence that can autonomously create, edit, and implement software
simultaneously around the world based on feedback from global sensor networks is a unique
historical factor in job displacement. It will affect the whole world, just as the Internet has,
however more so. It might be possible that more jobs will be created than eliminated, as in the
past, but the speed and integration of technological change and population growth is so much
greater this time that long-term structural unemployment is a very plausible future. Ideas like
universally guaranteed basic income and other new economic mechanisms have to be seriously
considered now—because it may take a generation or two to make such changes. Accelerating
scientific breakthroughs in brain and longevity research make healthy life extension increasingly
likely. As a result, massive programs will be needed to teach the elderly how to contribute to
society—finding markets for their skills and interests on the Internet.

The global economy is expected to grow about 3.5% during 2015, while the population of 7.3
billion is growing at 1.14%; hence, the world average per capita income growth is 2.36%. This is
still about half the per capita annual income growth prior to the global financial crisis and world
recession. But growth for growth’s sake is increasingly unwise. Incentives have to be
implemented around the world to speed the transition from blind economic growth to eco-smart
development, otherwise water and other environmental shortages are likely to increase social
instability. Half of humanity that lives within 120 miles of coastlines could eventually be
permanently disrupted. Without a U.S.-China Apollo-like goal on climate change to focus R&D
and implement policies, current goals to limit CO2 growth to 450 ppm seem unlikely, and longer-
range changes in the ocean could lead to increases in microbes that produce deadly hydrogen
sulfide (H2S) worldwide. Large-scale investments are needed to accelerate the transition from
fossil carbon to renewable energy, from livestock systems to growing meat without animals, and
from freshwater-only agriculture to saltwater agriculture.
To prevent the possibility of quantum computing with artificial intelligence and sensor
networks growing beyond human control, we have to design human-friendly control systems and
ways to merge wisely with future technology while living simultaneously in cyber-worlds and
physical “reality.” Because advances in synthetic biology, ICT, and other future technologies
make it plausible that single individuals acting alone could make and deploy weapons of mass
destruction, global sensor networks will be needed to identify intent before action, advances in
mental health will be needed to reduce the number of socio- and psychopaths, and new roles for
the public will have to be found to reduce these threats. Future molecular manufacturing and 3D
printing promise to give everyone a better living standard, but these also distribute the possibility
of creating nano-armies, and they dramatically reduce world trade.
When all of humanity becomes connected to the Internet of Things, and when breakthroughs
are discovered, integrated, and implemented from the human brain projects of the U.S., EU, and
China and the artificial intelligence projects of Google and IBM, every individual could
eventually have the possibility of being an augmented genius. How might a world full of
augmented geniuses change culture, politics, religions, mindsets, and economics? A global
collective intelligence system is needed to keep track of all of this and to widen the conversation
among world leaders, experts, and the public to begin the massive changes in societal constructs
necessary to address these and other foreseeable global challenges to build a better future.
* * *
Through a series of international Delphi surveys beginning in 1997 and global scanning
systems, The Millennium Project has identified and has been updating the following 15 Global
Challenges. They can be used both as a framework to understand global change and as an agenda
to improve the future:

1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global
climate change? The IPCC reports that each decade of the past three was consecutively
warmer and that the past 30 years was probably the warmest period in the northern
hemisphere over the last 1,400 years. Even if all CO2 emissions are stopped, most aspects
of climate change will persist for many centuries. Hence, the world has to take adaptation
far more seriously.
2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict? An additional 2.3
billion people received access to safe drinking water since 1990—an extraordinary
achievement—but this still leaves 748 million without this access. Water tables are
falling on all continents, and nearly half of humanity gets its water from sources
controlled by two or more countries.
3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance? The current
world population is 7.3 billion. It is expected to grow by another 1 billion in just 12 years
and by 2.3 billion in 35 years. To keep up with population and economic growth, food
production should increase by 70% by 2050.
4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes? A global
consciousness and more-democratic social and political structures are developing in
response to increasing interdependencies, the changing nature of power, and the need to
collectively address major planetary existential challenges. Meantime, world political and
civil liberties deteriorated for the ninth consecutive year in 2014 (61 countries declined;
33 countries improved).
5. How can decision-making be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight
during unprecedented accelerating change? Decision-makers are rarely trained in
foresight and decision-making, even though decision support and foresight systems are
constantly improving—e.g., Big Data analytics, simulations, collective intelligence
systems, indexes, and e-governance participatory systems.
6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies
work for everyone? The race is on to complete the global nervous system of civilization
and make supercomputing power and artificial intelligence available to everyone. How
well governments develop and coordinate Internet security regulations will determine the
future of cyberspace, according to Microsoft.
7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between
rich and poor? Extreme poverty in the developing world fell from 51% in 1981 to 17%
in 2011, but the income gaps between the rich and poor continue to expand rapidly. In
2014, the wealth of 80 billionaires equaled the total wealth of the bottom 50% of
humanity, and Oxfam estimates that if current trends continue, by 2016 the richest 1% of
the people will have more than all the rest of the world together.
8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be
reduced? The health of humanity continues to improve; life expectancy at birth increased
globally from 67 years in 2010 to 71 years in 2014. However, WHO verified more than
1,100 epidemic events over the past five years, and antimicrobial resistance, malnutrition,
and obesity continue to rise.

9. How can education and learning make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable,
and wise enough to address its global challenges? Much of the world’s knowledge is
available—either directly or through intermediaries—to the majority of humanity today.
Google and Wikipedia are helping to make the phrase “I don’t know” obsolete.
10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts,
terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction? The vast majority of the world
is living in peace, and transborder wars are increasingly rare. Yet half the world is
potentially unstable, intrastate conflicts are increasing, and almost 1% of the population
(some 73 million people) are refugees or IDPs. The diplomatic, foreign policy, military,
and legal systems to address the new asymmetrical threats have yet to be established.
11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?
Empowerment of women has been one of the strongest drivers of social evolution over
the past century and is acknowledged as essential for addressing all the global challenges
facing humanity. The percent of women in parliaments doubled over the last 20 years
from 11% to 22%. However, violence against women is the largest war today—as
measured by deaths and casualties per year—and obsolete patriarchal structures persist
around the world.
12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more
powerful and sophisticated global enterprises? Transnational organized crime is
estimated to get twice as much income as all military budgets combined per year.
Distinctions among organized crime, insurgency, and terrorism have begun to blur,
giving new markets for organized crime and increasing threats to democracies,
development, and security.
13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently? Solar and wind
energy systems are now competitive with fossil fuel sources. Fossil fuels receive $5.3
trillion in subsidies per year compared to $0.12 trillion for renewable energy sources,
according to the IMF. Energy companies are racing to make enough safe energy by 2050
for an additional 3.5 billion people (1.3 billion who do not have access now, plus the
additional 2.3 billion population growth).
14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the
human condition? Computational chemistry, computational biology, and computational
physics are changing the nature and speed of new scientific insights and technological
applications. Future synergies among synthetic biology, 3D and 4D printing, artificial
intelligence, robotics, atomically precise fabrication and other forms of nanotechnology,
tele-everything, drones, falling costs of renewable energy systems, augmented reality,
and collective intelligence systems will make the last 25 years seem slow compared with
the volume of change over the next 25 years.
15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global
decisions? Although short-term economic “me-first” attitudes are prevalent throughout
the world, love for humanity and global consciousness are also evident in the norms
expressed in the many international treaties, UN organizations, international
philanthropy, the Olympic spirit, inter-religious dialogues, refugee relief, development
programs for poorer nations, Doctors Without Borders, and international journalism.

The Millennium Project has gathered the insights from creative and knowledgeable people
around the world via its 56 Nodes to update the situation, prospects, and strategies to address
these Global Challenges. The following section on the 15 Global Challenges presents an
overview of each Challenge so that readers can save time and more easily improve their
understanding of our common future compared with more narrowly focused books and sources
scattered around the Internet. These are continually updated online in the Global Futures
Intelligence System (themp.org) along with more detailed overviews, international news
aggregation, annotated scanning system, situation charts, Web resources, models, papers, books,
and comments from subscribers. GFIS can be thought of as a global information utility from
which different readers can draw different value for improving understanding and decisions.
* * *
Although the State of the Future executive summaries may provide the best overviews of the
global situation and prospects for the future, there is a need for a better integrated
conceptualization and analysis of holistic problem/solution spaces. Since all of these challenges
have to be addressed, strategies that can address multiple challenges should be emphasized.
Figure 1 is an initial example of an overview integrated global strategy.
Figure 1. Initial Draft Concept for Discussion of an Integrated Global Strategy
Improvements on this initial draft are welcome and will be used to update and improve it in
GFIS.

So how are we doing in addressing these 15 Global Challenges? What’s the score card?
Where are we winning and losing? What is the future outlook? The Millennium Project has
created a State of the Future Index to answer these questions.
The 2015 SOFI below shows slow but steady improvement in general human welfare over
the past 20 years and next 10 years—but at the expense of the environment and with worsening
intrastate violence, terrorism, corruption, organized crime, and economic inequality.
Figure 2. State of the Future Index 2015
See the State of the Future Index section that follows the 15 Global Challenges section for
more details on how the SOFI is created and computed, along with analysis of the 2015 SOFI
and national applications in several European countries. The variables that created this year’s
index are listed in Box 1.
A review of the past 20 years and 10-year projections of the variables used in the global SOFI
gives information useful to create a “Report Card on the Future of the World.” Figure 3 shows
where we are winning and Figure 4 shows where we are losing or have seen little or no progress.
Humanity may be emerging from small-minded adolescence to planetary adulthood. We have
been trying on roles of what it is to be Chinese or French, engineers or artists, for thousands of
years, isolated into our own narrow beliefs of what we think to be true and right. Now it is time
to grow up and become an adult planetary species. If leaders do not make the decisions on the
scale necessary to address the global challenges, then future advances in artificial intelligence
may be needed, just as the autonomic nervous system manages the basic workings of our bodies.
However, this will require attention now to create the conditions to address the warnings of Elon
Musk, Bill Gates, and Steven Hawking about AI growing beyond human control. It is time for
intolerance of irrelevant speeches and non-actions by leaders. The stakes are too high to tolerate
business as usual.

Box 1. Variables Included in the Computation of 2015 SOFI

1. GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
2. Economic income inequality (income share held by highest 10%)
3. Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
4. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
5. CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
(1=low; 6=high)
6. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions)
7. R&D expenditures (% of GDP)
8. Population growth (annual %)
9. Life expectancy at birth (years)
10. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
11. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
12. Health expenditure per capita (current $)
13. Physicians (per 1,000 people)
14. Improved water source (% of population with access)
15. Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)
16. Biocapacity per capita (gha)
17. Forest area (% of land area)
18. Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
19. Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use
(constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))
20. Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric
(% of total)
21. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)
22. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
23. Share of high-skilled employment (%)
24. Number of wars and armed conflicts
25. Terrorism incidents
26. Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)

Figure 3. Where We Are Winning

Figure 4. Where We Are Losing or There Is Little or No Progress
The following section on 15 Global Challenges is a very concentrated set of data,

information, intelligence, and hopefully some wisdom that should be understood to improve the
human condition. It should be kept as a reference for policymakers, their advisors, teachers,
journalists, and those interested in the global future. These overviews are also available via smart
phones at themp.org so than anyone one can access this information quickly before going into a
meeting, giving a talk, or writing an article.
The section after the Challenges focuses on how to measure progress or regress of the future
“as a whole.” The State of the Future Index shown earlier is explained in greater detail in this
section.
And the next and last section shares the initial analysis of the Future Work/Technology 2050
Real-Time Delphi study. It explores a series of questions such as:
 What should we begin to do now to prevent long-term structural unemployment due to
future technologies?
 What questions need to be resolved to answer whether AI and other future technologies
will create more jobs than they replace?
 If massive unemployment cannot be prevented, what political-economic changes would it
be wise to begin to develop?

Artificial intelligence that can autonomously and continually rewrite its own software code
based on feedback from global sensor networks, which will increase its intelligence and that of
others, moment by moment worldwide. When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s
intelligence will be far faster and produce more change than Moore’s Law. Synthetic biology
allows us (or future forms of artificial general intelligence) to write genetic code as we used to
write software code to produce new life forms such as microprobes to eat the plaque in the brain
and plants to produce hydrogen instead of oxygen and carbon dioxide. Biological organs and
houses have been 3-D printed. Atomically precise fabrication could become far more efficient
than current robotic manufacturing, dramatically reducing energy requirements per unit of
production. By 2050 all people will be connected to the Internet, but to a far more intelligent
semantic Web than today. The human brain and AI projects mentioned previously should
improve cognitive science to the point that anyone could become an augmented genius by 2050.
The implications and strategies to address these changes were rated and commented by over 300
diverse experts around the world. The results will be used to construct scenarios and inputs to
national planning workshops initiated by The Millennium Project Nodes.
* * *
We should care about the whole world because the whole world will affect us—from new forms
of terrorism and artificial intelligence to climate change and financial ethics. The State of the
Future is offered to help us better understand the whole world of potential changes. Greater
details are available and updated daily online in the Global Futures Intelligence System.
Throughout the text are references to GFIS for more-relevant details than is possible in this short
overview of our global situation and the prospects for the future.

GLOBAL CHALLENGES
This chapter presents short descriptions of 15 Global Challenges that have been identified and
updated through an ongoing Delphi process and environmental scanning since 1996. The
scanning process includes feedback from Millennium Project global assessments on the future of
specific topics like media, energy, education, etc.; staff and interns scanning the Internet; expert
reviews from the previous year’s text; on-line feedback; regional input from The Millennium
Project Node Chairs; feedback from The Millennium Project’s email lists; monitoring conferences,
seminars, and publications; and discussions around the world as staff and Node Chairs give talks
on these challenges. All of this is distilled for patterns, and data are updated and cross-referenced.
These Challenges are transnational in nature and transinstitutional in solution. They
cannot be addressed by any government or institution acting alone. They require collaborative
action among governments, international organizations, corporations, universities, NGOs, and
creative individuals. Although listed in sequence, Challenge 1 on sustainable development and
climate change is no more or less important than Challenge 15 on global ethics. There is greater
consensus about the global situation as expressed in these Challenges and the actions to address
them than is evident in the news media.
More detailed treatments of the Global Challenges are available online, in the Global Futures
Intelligence System, where each Challenge has the following menu:
1. Situation Chart: Current situation, desired situation, and policies to address the gap
2. Report: Short overview as presented in this chapter, but continuously updated, followed
by detailed content, suggested actions, and other relevant information, totaling some
100-300 pages (depending on the Challenge)
3. Digest: Dashboard-like display of latest information related to the Challenge
4. Updates: Latest edits to the reports and situation charts
5. Scanning: Important information that impacts the Challenge
6. News: Latest news relevant to the Challenge
7. Real-Time Delphi: Questionnaire software that lets users ask questions at any time and
define sub-questions
8. Discussion: A blog-like area where subscribers and reviewers discuss issues they would
like to explore
9. Comments: Comments made by users on any part of the system, organized by time
10. Models: Interactive computer models that can show trends of the Challenge
11. Questions: Suggested questions to experts

The graphs used in this chapter illustrate trends for several variables and developments that
assess changes relevant to the Global Challenges presented. They were created using the State of
the Future Index methodology.
15 Global Challenges
The 15 Global Challenges provide a framework to assess the global and local prospects for
humanity. The Challenges are interdependent: an improvement in one makes it easier to address
others; deterioration in one makes it harder to address others. Arguing whether one is more
important than another is like arguing that the human nervous system is more important than the
respiratory system.
Figure 1.1 Global Challenges
Readers are invited to contribute their insights to improve the overview of these 15 global
challenges for future editions. Please use the forms at www.StateofTheFuture.org and select “15
Global Challenges” or subscribe to the Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org to
participate in the full system.

Global Challenge 1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all

while addressing global climate change?
The U.S.–China November 2014 joint announcement pledged GHG emissions caps,
collaboration on clearer energy research, carbon capture and reuse, Eco-smart City designs, and a
phasedown of the use of hydrofluorocarbons. Although the growth of global energy-related CO2
emissions stalled in 2014, this was still the warmest year in recorded history. Monthly CO2 as
measured at the Mauna Loa monitoring station reached 403.7 ppm in May 2015 (it was 401.88
ppm in May 2014 and 399.9 ppm in May 2013). The IPCC reports that each decade of the past
three were consecutively warmer, that the past 30 years was likely the warmest period in the
northern hemisphere over the last 1,400 years, and that even if all CO2 emissions are stopped,
"most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries." Hence, the world has to take

adaptation far more seriously. The IPCC says the sea level rose 19 cm from 1901 to 2010 and
could rise an additional 26–98 cm by the end of this century and that Earth’s average surface
temperature has warmed by about 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880.
Total GHG emissions are about 54 Gt of CO2 equivalent per year. In a business-as-usual
scenario, the emissions are estimated to reach 59 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2020 and 68 Gt of CO2
equivalent in 2030. The IPCC estimates that no more than 1,000 Gt of CO2 equivalent should be
emitted between 2012 and 2100 if we want to have a 66% chance of limiting the warming to
below 2°C.
Nature's capacity to absorb human-induced emissions is diminishing. Oceans will continue
absorbing human-generated CO2 for decades if not centuries, which increases acidity, affecting
coral reefs and other sea life. Over the long term, increased CO2 in the atmosphere leads to a
proliferation of microbes that emit hydrogen sulfide—a very poisonous gas that could lead to
mass extinctions. Surface ocean pH has already fallen by about 0.11 pH units from preindustrial
times to today, and if the current trend continues, it is likely to drop by 0.3–0.4 units by the end
of this century, with devastating impacts on the marine ecosystem.
If all Kyoto Protocol Annex 1 country pledges were fully implemented, the emissions of
these countries would reach a level by 2020 that is 12–18% below the level of 1990; however, if
only their unconditional pledges were implemented, the decrease would be only 5% below the
1990 level. There is also a growing fear that the target of not exceeding 450 ppm of atmospheric
CO2 is inadequate and should be lowered to 350 ppm—or else the momentum of climate change
could grow beyond humanity’s ability to reverse it. Emissions from increased production of
internationally traded products have more than offset the emissions reductions achieved under
the Kyoto Protocol. Meanwhile, adaptation costs are likely to reach $300 billion per year by
2050, even with strong emissions cuts. One study estimates that a ton of CO2 emitted causes
$220 worth of economic damage.
Global ecosystem services that provide life support and economic foundations are valued at
$16–64 trillion. WWF estimates that the oceans are worth at least $24 trillion. Much of our food
is dependent on bee pollination, yet few people seem to realize that half of the bee colonies in the
U.S. and Europe have collapsed over the past couple of decades. Irrigated fields produce 36% of
the world’s food, but a fifth of the world's irrigated soils are affected by salt, which can cut crop
yields as much as 70%. About $27.3 billion is lost each year in agricultural value due to
increasing salt. As ocean levels rise, seawater will enter freshwater agricultural lands; hence, it
will be wise to develop and convert to salt-tolerant plants.
The size of the “global middle class” (defined as all those living in households with daily per
capita incomes of $10–100 in PPP terms) will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion by
2020 and to 4.9 billion by 2030, drawing even more on ecosystem services. The world spends 1–
2% of global GDP on subsidies that often lead to unsustainable resource use. Global waste has
increased 10-fold in the last century, and it could double by 2025 from where it is today. Halving
global food waste could save as much as $300 billion a year by 2030. More than 41 million

tonnes of e-waste were discarded in 2014. The discarded materials, including gold and silver,
were worth some $52 billion, but less than 20% is estimated to have been properly recycled.
In 2014, Earth Overshoot Day—the approximate date when human resource consumption
exceeds nature's budget—fell on August 19th, one day earlier than in 2013, although since 2001,
it has moved ahead on average three days per year. Humanity has been in annual ecological
overshoot since the 1970s; it now takes one year and six months to regenerate one year's worth
of consumption. Five countries account for nearly half of the world's ecological footprint: China,
the U.S., India, Brazil, and Russia. Unless we improve our economic, environmental, and social
behaviors, the next 50 years are likely to be disastrous for many people. If present trends of
climate change continue, one in six species on Earth could become extinct.
Poorer countries that contribute the least to GHGs are the most vulnerable to climate
change’s impacts because they depend on agriculture and fisheries, and they lack financial and
technological resources to cope. The G-8 committed to the New Alliance for Food Security and
Nutrition aimed at achieving sustained and inclusive agricultural growth to raise 50 million
people out of poverty over the next 10 years. Annual global climate finance flows in 2013
reached $331 billion, which was $28 billion lower than the previous year, further increasing the
gap between finance needed and finance delivered. According to UNEP’s Towards a Green
Economy report, investing 2% of global GDP ($1.3 trillion per year) into 10 key sectors could
kick-start a transition toward a low-carbon, resource-efficient green economy that would increase
income per capita and reduce the ecological footprint by nearly 50% by 2050 compared with
business as usual. As of September 2014, more than 65 countries have green economy policies,
and 48 of them are taking steps to develop national green economy plans.
Climate change could be accelerated by dangerous feedbacks:
 Melting ice/snow on tundras reflect less light and absorb more heat, releasing more
methane, which in turn increases global warming and melts more tundra.
 Warming ocean water releases methane hydrates from the seabed to the air, warming the
atmosphere and melting more ice, which further warms the water to release more
methane hydrates.
 The use of methane hydrates or otherwise disturbing deeper seabeds releases more
methane to the atmosphere and accelerates global warming.
 Melting ice in polar regions reflects less light and absorbs more heat, which further
increases melting.
Glaciers are melting, disease patterns are changing, and coral reefs are dying. The Gulf
Stream system has weakened to its lowest level in 1,100 years, possibly due to an influx of
freshwater from Greenland's melting ice sheet. A third (FAO) to a half (WWF) of the world's
topsoil has been destroyed and it could run out in 60 years. Some 30% of fish stocks have
already collapsed, and 21% of mammal species and 70% of plants are under threat. Oceans
absorb 30 million tons of CO2 each day, increasing their acidity. The number of dead zones in
the oceans—areas with too little oxygen to support life—caused by agricultural runoffs, has
doubled every decade since the 1960s.

Because the U.S. and China are the largest GHG polluters and have the largest economies,
they have the moral responsibility to lead the world in adapting to and turning around climate
change. The U.S. and China are working together but have not yet declared a joint bold Apollo-
like goal—such as reducing atmospheric CO2 to 350 ppm—with a NASA-like R&D strategy that
could rally global collaboration. Such a U.S.–China-led strategy might focus on new
technologies like electric cars, saltwater agriculture, carbon capture and reuse, solar power
satellites, maglev trains, urban systems ecology, pure meat without growing animals (produced
from either stem cells or vegetable inputs), and a global climate change collective intelligence
system to support better decisions and keep track of it all. It is estimated that growing pure meat
without growing animals would generate 96% lower GHG emissions, use 45% less energy,
reduce land use by 99%, and cut water use by 96% compared with growing animals for meat.
These technologies have to be supplemented by policies that support carbon taxes, cap and trade
schemes, reduced deforestation, industrial efficiencies, cogeneration, conservation, recycling,
and a switch of government subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy. (Pakistan and
Venezuela are spending twice as much on fossil fuel subsidies as they are on public health.)
Successful technological and policy implementation in many lesser developed countries will
need assistance.
Seriously addressing global warming will require better conservation, higher efficiencies,
changes in food and energy production, methods to reduce the GHGs that are already in the
atmosphere, and adapting to climate changes already in motion for many years to come.
Scientists are studying how to build towers to suck CO2 from the air, sequester CO2
underground, spread iron powder in oceans to increase phytoplankton to sequester CO2,
genetically alter coral to better absorb CO2, reduce solar input with large-scale geoengineering
projects like sunshades in orbit, and reuse carbon at power plants to produce cement and grow
algae for biofuels. Large-scale geoengineering, such as spraying sulfate aerosols into the
atmosphere to reflect some sunlight, may run into problems with stratospheric ozone depletion,
reaching international agreements to do it, and making the daytime sky significantly brighter and
whiter. Other suggestions include retrofitting coal plants to burn leaner and to capture and reuse
carbon emissions, raising fuel efficiency standards, and increasing vegetarianism (FAO reports
that the livestock sector emits more GHGs than transportation does). Others have suggested new
taxes--such as on carbon, international financial transactions, urban congestion, international
travel, and environmental footprints. Such taxes could support international public/private
funding mechanisms for high-impact technologies. Massive public educational efforts by
professional networks (from scholarly associations to Rotary Clubs) should use social media,
popular films, television, music, games, and contests to stress what we can do to better pressure
political and other leaders.
Without a global strategy to address climate change, the environmental movement may turn
on the fossil fuel and livestock industries. The legal foundations are being laid to sue for
damages caused by GHGs. Climate change adaptation and mitigation policies should be
integrated into an overall sustainable development strategy. Without sustainable growth, billions

more people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilization could collapse, which is
unnecessary since we know enough already to tackle climate change while increasing economic
growth. Unfortunately, we do not have sufficient acceptance of universal ethical principles for
successful implementation.
Challenge 1 will be addressed seriously when green GDP increases while poverty and global
GHG emissions decrease for five years in a row.
Regional Considerations
Africa: Since Africa contributes little to GHGs, its focus should be more on adaptation to
climate change than on mitigation. It is getting about $1–2 billion per year now for adaptation,
but needs $7–15 billion per year for adaptation by 2020, and $50 billion per year by 2050.
Introduction of drought-resistant seeds, more eco-friendly farming, closed environmental
agriculture, seawater farming along the coasts, reforestation, and reduction of slash-and-burn
agricultural practices will be needed to avoid the IPCC forecast that climate change could reduce
rain-fed sub-Saharan agriculture by 50% by 2020. Price- and weather-indexed insurance schemes
will help Africa stabilize prices in domestic markets and help farmers adapt to climate change. If
agricultural practices don't change and global warming exceeds 3°C, virtually all of the present
maize, millet, and sorghum cropping areas across Africa could become unviable.
Solar energy in the Sahara is strategic for African sustainable growth. Africa needs about
$675 billion by 2030 to achieve low-carbon sustainable growth; the current carbon market for
mitigation is not sufficient to address this. The Clean Development Mechanism, the Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation program, and the voluntary offset program
are not fully utilized. Africa’s total ecological footprint is set to double by 2040. Ethiopia is
implementing its climate-resilient green economy plan to become carbon-neutral by 2030.
Mayors in Mali are now required to have couples plant trees as part of their marriage registration
process. Ten African nations have pledged to include the economic value of natural resources in
their national accounts. Meanwhile, West Africa is losing $1.3 billion a year due to illegal and
unregulated fishing, and criminal groups take up to $1.3 billion worth of natural resources such
as gold, timber, and ivory from the DRC every year. Militia and terrorist groups in and around
Africa may earn up to $289 million annually from illegal or unregulated charcoal trade.
Asia and Oceania: China, the largest GHG polluter in the world, plans to begin to reverse the
amount of its GHG emissions by 2030 and to obtain 20% of its energy from zero emissions
sources by that year. The region has half of the world’s megacities and the majority of the
world’s impoverished people, many of whom live in densely populated slums vulnerable to
climate change. Rapid applications of urban systems ecology will be vital for sustainable
development of the region. India loses $80 billion per year, or nearly 6% of its GDP, due to
environmental degradation, and more than half the damage is attributable to air pollution.
Particulate matter pollution reduces life expectancy by 3.2 years for 660 million Indians in

polluted urban cities. Meanwhile, lung cancer has doubled in Beijing over the last decade, and
pollution increasingly becomes a cause of protests and lawsuits. The Chinese government
banned the anti-air pollution documentary "Under the Dome" after it attracted 200 million
viewers within a week.
China's solid waste will grow from about 573,000 tons a day in 2005 to 1.5 million tons in
2025. It has pilot emissions trading schemes in seven provinces and cities and will launch a
national ETS in 2016. Some $320 billion worth of investment will be needed annually to meet
China's environmental targets. The effects of deforestation on the South and Southeast Asian
climate need to be better understood. Due to the effects of global warming, the 103,000 citizens
of Kiribati are expected to become refugees; hence, their government bought 6,000 acres of land
in Fiji for a reported $9.6 million to resettle this population. Bangladesh will need housing
adaptations and new agriculture to save farming from ocean-level increases of saltwater
incursions. Australia repealed the carbon tax that was introduced in 2012, but WWF says the
country could achieve net zero emission by 2050 at a cost of 0.2% of GDP.
Europe: The EU is on track to achieve its 2020 climate/energy objectives (GHG emissions 20%
lower than in 1990; 20% of energy from renewables; 20% increase in energy efficiency). The EC
adopted a low-carbon roadmap that would cut emissions by 80–95% by 2050. The EU-28
committed in 2014 to the 2030 framework policy to reduce GHG emissions by 40% from 1990
levels by 2030 and to increase both energy efficiency and the share of renewable energy by 27%
from 1990 levels. Member States will have flexibility to set national objectives and policies. The
sectors covered by EU ETS reduced their emissions by 13% from 2005 to 2013, but incentives
for low-carbon investments are too low today due to excess of allowance and sluggish economy.
The EU carbon price was around €7 per tonne in mid-2015, down from its peak of over €30.
Reforms to strengthen the EU ETS will be introduced in 2018, which could push carbon prices
up to €20 per tonne by 2020. In 2013, fiscal revenues from auctioning allowances in the EU ETS
amounted to €3.6 billion (of which, around € 3 billion will be used for climate- and energy-
related purposes).
France introduced a carbon tax to support the transition toward renewables and promote
energy efficiency. Spain’s total greenhouse gas emissions fell by 20% to 344 million tonnes in
2012 from 432 million tonnes in 2007; however, subsidy cuts for renewable energy could change
this picture. Russia aims to reduce GHG emissions by 22–25% by 2020 compared with 1990
(which is still an increase in absolute terms, since Russia’s emissions plunged sharply after the
collapse of the Soviet Union). Nitrogen pollution from farms, vehicles, industry, and waste
treatment costs the EU up to €320 billion per year.
The EC is preparing a circular economy strategy to increase resource efficiency by 30% by
2030, which is expected to boost GDP by nearly 1% and create 2 million additional jobs. Air
pollution in Europe cost $1.6 trillion, or nearly one-tenth of the EU’s GDP, in premature deaths
and diseases. At the end of EU's "Year of Air," the EU proposed a new strategy toward 2030,
which would avoid 58,000 premature deaths and save as much as €140 billion per year. The UK

plans to have its own “GDP-plus” national accounts by 2020. Norwegians generated the greatest
volume of e-waste on a per capita basis (28kg), followed by Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, and
the UK.
Russia has the world's second largest total biocapacity reserve and is the only major economy
not facing a growing dependence on other nations' ecosystems. Between 1992 and 2009 its
reserve has further improved from 0.9 to 2.6 gha per capita.
Latin America: The region faces a $100 billion annual loss by 2050 if the global temperature
rises 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Mexico and Colombia are implementing sector-wide
crediting mechanisms that reward low-emission activities. Chile approved a carbon tax to start in
2018. Mexico’s new climate change law sets legally binding emission reduction goals: 30%
below business-as-usual levels by 2020 and 50% below 2000 levels by 2050. Some 40% of
Brazilian businesses reported emission reduction targets in 2012. Recycling in Brazil generates
$2 billion a year while avoiding 10 million tons of GHG emissions.
South America has 40% of the planet’s biodiversity and about half of the world's carbon
stored in tropical forests. Brazil has the world's largest total biocapacity reserve (about 9.6 gha
per capita), but unless more environmentally friendly policies are successful, it could cross into
deficit within the next 50 years. The deforestation rate in Brazil went down for several years, but
the annual deforestation rates increased 28% for the period August 2012 to July 2013. In Peru,
more than 50% of forest cover on the coast is already lost, and more than 150,000 hectares of
forest are lost annually by agriculture and mining. The demand for hydropower and biofuels may
reduce Latin America’s forests as a carbon sink. The dieback of the southern part of the Amazon
rainforest is expected to be greater than expected because the forest is drying faster than the
IPCC models assumed.
According to IICA, Latin America holds 43% of the world’s potential for agricultural growth.
It is rapidly expanding this potential while trying not to damage vital ecosystem services.
North America: The U.S. pledged to cut GHG emissions by 26–28% by 2025 from 2005 levels.
Methane production in the U.S. could be 50% or more than previous EPA estimates due to fossil
fuel production and livestock industries, not previously considered. Although President Obama
created the Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy, municipalities and states initiate and
implement more policies for sustainable development and reducing GHGs than the federal
government does. California and Québec linked their carbon markets in 2014; with the inclusion
of the transport sector in January 2015, their linked ETS is the world’s third largest. U.S. oil
companies are beginning to plan for carbon taxes. Bank of America announced its 10-year, $50-
billion green investment program.
A U.S. National Academy of Sciences panel called for better government coordination to
implement an abrupt climate change early warning system (for changes years to decades faster
than expected), while the U.S. Congress refused to end oil subsidies. Honey beekeepers have
reported that the bee population has been falling about 30% per year since 2006. Air pollution

and exposure to toxic chemicals cost U.S. children $76.6 billion in health expenses. The U.S.
will invest $880 million to clean up the Florida Everglades. The permafrost temperature in
northern Alaska increased about 4–7°C during the last century, almost half of it during the last
20 years. Boy Scouts of America created a Sustainability Merit Badge.
Canada's tar sends exploitation continues to raise environmental concerns. The Alberta
government introduced legislation to create a new environmental monitoring agency focused on
the oil sands. The new Alberta government promises a new climate change strategy. Canada's
intended nationally determined contribution is committing the country to reduce GHG emissions
by 30% below the 2005 levels by 2030. Ontario committed to reduce its GHG emissions by37%
below 1990 levels by 2030, while British Columbia's carbon tax system is considered one of the
most significant in the Western Hemisphere.

Global Challenge 2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without
conflict?
Over 2.3 billion more people have gained access to safe drinking water since 1990. The MDG
goal of halving the number of people without access to improved drinking water was achieved in
2010. This is an extraordinary achievement, but it still leaves 748 million without this access
today, and many more lack a sustainable water supply. Because of falling water tables around the
world, climate change, various forms of water pollution, and population growth, some of those
with safe water today may not have it in the future unless significant changes are made. Some
1.8 billion people gained access to improved sanitation facilities since 1990, but 2.5 billion still
lack access, missing the MDG goal by 1 billion people.
The World Economic Forum in 2015 highlighted the water crisis as the top global risk based
on impact to society and the eighth global risk based on likelihood. The faster the
recommendations in this report are implemented, the less suffering, disease, and conflict will

occur; however, progress is not yet on the scale necessary to meet the water needs of humanity
and nature. Although groundwater remains the primary source of drinking water worldwide, it is
being depleted; its use is growing twice as fast as human population growth over the past century.
Water tables are falling in many areas around the world; for example, it is falling 1 meter per
year in several areas of India. Aquifers are becoming increasingly polluted, and the salinity in
some coastal areas is increasing.
About 27% of the people in developing-country cities do not have piped water at home.
Global water withdrawals have tripled over the last 50 years. Global water demand for the
manufacturing industry is expected to increase by 400% from 2000 to 2050. Energy production
uses about 15% of the world’s water and is expected to increase by 20% through 2035. Water
scarcity due to drought, land degradation, and desertification already affects 1.5 billion people in
the world today and is closely associated with poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition. By
2030 global water demand could be 40% more than the current supply. According to OECD
trend projections, half the world could be living in areas with severe water stress by 2030. Nature
also needs sufficient water to support all life-forms. Hence, business as usual could lead to
several billion people living in water-stressed areas by 2050. This could change with new
agricultural practices, policy changes, intelligently applied new technologies, and changes in
societal values and behavior. Although water-related conflicts are already taking place, water-
sharing agreements have been reached even among people in conflict and have led to
cooperation in other areas; however, these agreements seldom include how to improve the
efficiency of water use. Nearly half the world (excluding Antarctica) gets its water from sources
controlled by two or more countries; increasing water diplomacy will be needed to prevent future
conflicts.
Approximately 80% of diseases in the developing world are water-related; most are due to
poor management of human excreta. At least 1.8 million children under five die every year due
to unsafe water, inadequate sanitation, and a lack of hygiene. The number of children dying from
diarrheal diseases, which are strongly associated with poor water, inadequate sanitation, and
hygiene problems, has steadily fallen over the last two decades from approximately 1.5 million
deaths in 1990 to just above 600,000 in 2012. Some 502,000 diarrheal deaths can be attributed to
unhealthy and insufficient drinking water. Of these deaths, 88% occur in Africa and Southeast
Asia. As a result of efforts put into meeting the MDG sanitation target—to halve, by 2015, the
proportion of the population without sustainable access to basic sanitation—there has been an
increase in the coverage of improved sanitation from 49% of the population in 1990 to 64% in
2012, with almost 2 billion people gaining access to an improved sanitation facility during that
period. Despite these improvements, 2.5 billion people (67% of whom live in Asia) still use
unimproved sanitation facilities, and 1.1 billion people practice open defecation.
Aquaculture produces about half of human-consumed fish, which could be dramatically
increased in many locations around the world, while being careful not to displace native fish and
other aquatic biodiversity. Agriculture accounts for 70% of human usage of fresh water; the
majority of which is used for livestock production. Such water demands will increase to feed

growing populations with increasing incomes. Global demand for meat may increase by 50% by
2025 and double by 2050, further accelerating the demand for water per person (2,400 liters of
water are used to produce one hamburger; 8,000 liters to produce one leather shoe). The UN
estimates that $50–60 billion annually is needed between now and 2030 to avoid future water
shortages. Some 30% of global cereal production could be lost in current production regions due
to water scarcity, yet new areas in Russia and Canada could open due to climate change.
Exploitation of shale gas through fracking could contaminate groundwater, and some suspect
it could even trigger earthquakes. Cooling systems for electric power plants require large
amounts of water. One U.S. study showed that nuclear power plants withdrew nearly eight times
more freshwater than natural gas plants do per unit of electricity generated. Energy demand may
increase 40% in 20 years; coupled with increased food demands, dramatic changes in water
management will be required. Power plants could reduce water use with once-through or
recirculating water through on-site reservoirs, but electric utilities that switch to wind use no
water, and photovoltaics use relatively little water for cleaning compared with thermal plants.
Breakthroughs in desalination, such as pressurization of seawater to produce vapor jets, filtration
via carbon nanotubes, and reverse osmosis, are needed along with less costly pollution treatment
and better water catchments.
Future demand for fresh water could be reduced by:
 Saltwater agriculture on coastlines
 Hydroponics
 Aquaponics
 Vertical urban agriculture installations in buildings
 Producing pure meat without growing animals
 Increasing vegetarianism
 Fixing leaking pipes
 The reuse of treated water
Water should be central to development and climate change strategies. If climate change
results in significant sea level rise, we may see 20% of the world’s coastal freshwater become
saline. In a desperate attempt to cope, people might use massive amounts of diesel to produce
desalinated water, contributing further to CO2 emissions. Though large-scale solar desalination is
problematic, nanotechnology has the potential to make solar efficient enough to be a real
solution.
Development planning should consider:
 The lessons learned from producing more food with less water via drip irrigation and
precision farming
 Seawater greenhouse agriculture
 Improved rainwater management
 Irrigation watershed management
 Selective introduction of water pricing without repeating previous failed privatization
programs

 Successful community-scale projects around the world

 Conversion of degraded or abandoned farmlands to forest or grasslands
 Household sanitation
 Reforestation
 Water storage
 Treatment of industrial effluents in multipurpose water schemes
 Use of wastewater (gray water) from washing on-site for toilet flushing and watering
gardens
 Construction of eco-friendly dams, pipelines, and aqueducts to move water from areas of
abundance to those of scarcity.
And why not develop decentralized methods for final purification of water at the point of tap
water for drinking, instead of total and expensive purification at the central water plant, since
most water is not used for drinking? Just as it has become popular to calculate someone’s carbon
footprint, people are beginning to calculate their “water footprint.”
In the past 15 years, more than 180 cities and communities in 35 countries, including Buenos
Aires, Johannesburg, Paris, Accra, Berlin, La Paz, Maputo, and Kuala Lumpur, have taken back
their control of water services due to disappointing levels of investment and increases in water
tariff. Out of $75 billion invested since 1990 in purchasing power parity (PPP) water and sewer
projects, 27% have been cancelled or are troubled. Return on investment in water and sanitation
services in developing regions is estimated at $5 to $28 per every dollar invested. Providing
universal access would imply a potential economic gain of $220 billion per year. Achieving post-
2015 goals on water and sanitation development, and on maintenance and replacement of
infrastructure, will cost up $2.4 trillion per year. A study by the United Nations University
estimates that a global investment of $840 billion to $1.8 trillion per year for the next 20 years
will generate benefits worth more than $3 trillion.
The UN General Assembly declared access to clean water and sanitation to be a human right.
The Marseilles Ministerial Declaration, adopted at the 6th World Water Forum, called for
accelerating the recognition of safe drinking water and sanitation as a human right and
implementation of obligations to ensure these rights.
Challenge 2 will have been addressed seriously when the number of people without clean
water and those suffering from water-borne diseases diminishes by half from their peaks and
when the percentage of water used in agriculture drops for five years in a row.
Sub-Saharan Africa: More than half of Africans have water-related diseases. Between 1% and
2.5% of GDP of African countries and $5.5 billion are lost annually due to inadequate sanitation.
About 30% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa uses improved sanitation facilities. A global
rush for farmland is actually a “great water grab,” with a number of African governments signing
away water rights for decades—with major implications for local communities. There are huge

amounts of groundwater available in Africa—100 times the amount found on the surface. Yet
40% of the people without access to improved drinking water live in sub-Saharan Africa, and a
study in Nigeria and Ethiopia found that only about 70% of the “improved” sources are safe to
drink.
Foreign aid covers up to 90% of some sub-Saharan African countries’ water and sanitation
expenditures. Despite progress, the actual number of people without access in sub-Saharan
Africa was greater in 2008 than in 1990, mostly due to population growth. Without policy
changes, this region will not meet the MDG target for water until 2040 and the one on sanitation
until 2076. In Nairobi, 40% of the city's water supply is lost due to theft and leaks. Up to 90% of
people in Lagos depend on private boreholes or on water vendors. Meanwhile, poor people
without access to piped water pay up to 25 times more for their water. The number of Africans
living in water-stressed areas is projected to be about 350–403 million by 2055 in the absence of
climate change; with climate change, it could be 350–600 million people.
Since the majority of Africa depends on rain-fed agriculture, upgrading rain-fed systems and
improving agricultural productivity will immediately improve millions of lives. Putting
sanitation facilities in some village schools could bring girls back to school.
The Strategic Framework for Water Security and Climate Resilient Development was
launched to address the twin challenges of water security and climate change. The Gibe III Dam
under construction will lower water levels at Lake Turkana, possibly affecting more than
500,000 people in Ethiopia. The agreement between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt on sharing Nile
River waters is a good step toward solving African challenges. The tripartite agreement signed in
March 2015 is meant to pave the way for negotiations relating to the usage of the dam under
construction in Ethiopia, as well as the entire Nile River flow. The Nile, the longest river in the
world, serves 11 countries that constitute the Nile Basin Initiative born 16 years ago.
Middle East and North Africa: By 2050, an additional 1.5 billion m3 of water will be needed in
the Middle East, of which about a third will be allocated to the Palestinian Authority and Jordan.
Due to advances in desalination, water recycling, and conservation, Israel now has a surplus in
water; 50% of water usage in Israel is artificially produced. Iran's water per person has fallen
50% since the late 1970s. Yemen may have the first capital city to run out of water. UAE's
renewable water resources have decreased 42% in the past 15 years, and water salinity is
increasing due to salt dumping by desalination plants. Increasing water prices could spark social
unrest. Fear of a political and environmental crisis may lead to the collapse of the state and an
influx of refugees, especially from Yemen. To prevent this, Saudi Arabia has donated fuel to
Yemen and offered to fund water projects. The economic costs of poor-quality water in countries
in the Middle East and North Africa range from 0.5% to 2.5% of GDP.
Asia and Oceania: Asia has 60% of the world’s population but only 28–30% of its freshwater.
"Dry 11," or 11 water-scarce regions in China, accounts for nearly half of China’s GDP. China's
water situation is expected to continue to get worse for the next five to eight years under the best-

case scenario, partly due to geographical mismatches in natural resource distribution. The North
has only 25% of China’s total renewable water resources but 63% of the farmland and 86% of
the coal reserves. China's wetlands have shrunk nearly 9% since 2003, and glaciers in the
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau shrank 15% over the last three decades. With only 6% of the world’s
freshwater, China has to meet the needs of 22% of the world’s population. Driven by pollution
fear, consumption of bottled water in China nearly doubled in the past five years. China plans to
quadruple production of desalinated water by 2020, from the current 680,000 m3 (180 million
gallons) a day to as many as 3 million m3 (800 million gallons). Beijing plans to pipe in
desalinated water from the port of Caofeidian in Hebei province through 270-km-long pipelines.
The $2.9 billion project is expected to meet one-third of Beijing's water demand in 2019. Forced
migration due to water shortages has begun in China, and India should be next.
India is the largest user of freshwater in the world even though it has only 4% of the world's
water supply and has to feed 17% of the world’s population. In India, 626 million people do not
have access to a toilet. In Delhi, 24 water ATMs have been installed that accept smart cards to
give water – a vending machine for water; each ATM holds 500 liters of water and provides
water to residents in areas without piped water supply.
The Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, Ganges, and Indus are among the 10 most polluted rivers in
the world. UN-Habitat has declared India's Yamuna River “dead”—without enough oxygen to
support river life. Inadequate sanitation costs the economies of four Southeast Asian countries
(Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) the equivalent of about 2% of their GDP.
The government of Victoria in Australia has opened private competition to bid for water
supply contracts. China is buying increasing amounts of agricultural land in Australia to offset
carbon and is increasingly looking to Australia to export "clean food."
Europe: Some 100 million people in Europe do not have a household connection to safe
drinking water, and more than 66 million lack access to adequate sanitation facilities. Water
utilities in Germany pay farmers to switch to organic operations because it costs less than
removing farm chemicals from water supplies. Water losses due to bad infrastructure are less
than 5% in Germany but can be as high as 50% in Bulgaria. The EU is conducting a Policy
Review for water scarcity and droughts, and the Common Agricultural Policy is exploring how
to achieve a more balanced management of water resources. Spain is the first country to use
water footprint analysis in policymaking. Malta, Cyprus, and Luxembourg lead in terms of EU
bathing water quality. The EU has committed 35.2 billion naira to improve water, sanitation, and
hygiene in Nigeria.
The world’s largest reserves of freshwater are in Russia, which could export water to China
and Middle Asia. Russia plans to improve water efficiency by 2.5 times by 2030.
Latin America: Latin America has 26% of the world’s freshwater and 6% of its population. The
region’s water demand could increase 300% by 2050, but two-thirds of the region is arid or
semiarid, including large areas of central and northern Mexico, northeastern Brazil, northwestern

Argentina, northern Chile, and parts of Bolivia and Peru. About 25% of the population (over 100
million) live in water-stressed areas, mainly in Mexico, Argentina, and the countries along the
west coast. About 125 million people in Latin America lack access to sanitation services. Over
70% of water used there returns to rivers without treatment. Meanwhile, countries in the region
lose nearly $6 billion every year due to delinquencies, overemployment in the industry, and
water loss caused by misused or broken pipes. Brazil wastes nearly 40% of its treated water,
according to UNESCO.
Puerto Rico imposed strict water rationing; 160,000 resident of San Juan have access to
water only every other day. Mexico performs 85% below the OECD average for water quality
but has increased investments in water systems and the “2030 Water Agenda” for universal water
access and wastewater treatment. Suffering from the worst drought in 70 years, Mexican farmers
have lost 2.2 million acres of crops. Costa Rica needs to invest $2.4 billion to improve water and
sanitation conditions by 2030. Chile plans to build five new municipal desalination plants at an
estimated cost of $280 million. El Salvador will be hit hardest by water shortages in Central
America.
Ice is melting in the Andes, affecting hydroelectric dams, agriculture, and urban water
supplies; 68% of the region’s electricity is from hydroelectric sources. Peru will be one of the
Latin American countries that will suffer more water shortages, due to over 60% of its
population (about 18 million people) living in its coastal desert region, which receives water
from the glaciers of mountains that have already lost more than 40% of their volume; it is
expected that in 2030 there will be glaciers only at altitudes above 5,000 meters above sea level.
Water crises might occur in megacities within a generation unless new water supplies are
generated, lessons from both successful and unsuccessful approaches to privatization are applied,
and legislation is updated for more reliable, transparent, and consistent integrated water
resources management.
North America: California is in its fourth year of record drought, forcing farmers to voluntarily
reduce water use by 25%. Fracking, agriculture, and other private interests are buying water
rights, threatening water as a public trust. Additional water withdrawals in the dry Southwest of
the U.S. are being accelerated by new oil and gas extractions. According to the Ceres investor
network, nearly 40,000 oil and gas wells were drilled since 2011 in this region—three-quarters
where water is scarce and 55% in the drought areas. The water demand for fracking in these dry
areas is expected to double over the next year or two. Each kilowatt-hour of electricity in the U.S.
requires about 25 gallons of water for cooling, which makes power plants the second largest
water consumer in the country (39% of all water withdrawals) after agriculture. U.S.
thermoelectric power plants withdrew as much water as farms did, and more than four times as
much as all U.S. residents.
The U.S. EPA issued a new "Clean Water Rule" to curb pollution in the streams and
wetlands in the country; the new rule covers about 60% of U.S. water bodies and protects water

sources for 117 million Americans. USAID has released its water development strategy 2013–18
for developing countries.
While the water infrastructure is aging (there are over 225,000 water-line-related breaks each
year in the U.S.), federal funding for such improvements has fallen substantially. About 20% of
drinking water is lost from plant to user. According to the EPA, $384 billion is needed for
drinking water infrastructure between 2011 and 2030. North Americans use 2.5 times more water
than Europeans per person. Competition for water among agriculture, cities, and power plants is
heightened due to several years of continuous droughts in much of the Southwest. The U.S. may
have passed its “peak water” level in the 1970s. More than 30 states are in litigation with their
neighbors over water. About 30% of U.S. cities could be water-scarce by 2017. Some 13% of
Native American households have no access to safe water and/or wastewater disposal, compared
with 0.6% in non-native households. Mayors in the U.S. Great Lakes regions made "Sister
Waters" Partnership with mayors of the Middle East to share information and technologies for
managing water.
Canada has 20% of the world's freshwater, 7% of which is renewable. The 2013
Transboundary Waters Protection Act bans bulk water exports from transboundary basins,
although it allows bottled water export of up to 50,000 liters per day. Tapping Western Canada’s
tar sands consumes an estimated 20–45 cubic meters of water per megawatt-hour, nearly 10
times that for conventional oil extraction. Canada is mapping its underground water supplies to
help policymakers prevent water shortages. Government agricultural water subsidies should be
changed to encourage conservation.
Figure 1.2 Improved water source (% of population with access)
Source: World Bank indicators, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Figure 1.3 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)

Global Challenge 3. How can population growth and resources be brought

into balance?
The current world population is 7.3 billion. It is expected to grow by another 1 billion in just 12
years, and by 2.3 billion in 35 years. This will create unprecedented demand for food, water,
energy, and employment. Population growth is expected to be most rapid in the 49 least
developed countries, doubling in size from about 900 million today to 1.8 billion in 2050. There
were only 1 billion humans in 1804; 2 billion in 1927; 6 billion in 1999; and 7.3 billion today.
The UN forecasts a range from 8.3 billion to 10.9 billion people by 2050, with 9.6 billion as the
mid-projection. For 2100, the UN projects an 80% probability that the world’s population will be
between 9.6 and 12.3 billion.
According to UN estimates, by 2050 over 70% of the human population will live in urban
areas. The UN-HABITAT estimates the annual urban population increase between 2007 and
2025 in developing regions to be 53 million (or 2.3%), compared with a mere 3 million (or 0.5%)
in developed regions. The growth of urban areas will present many social, economic, and

environmental challenges in the future, particularly for cities in developing countries that
struggle to keep up with the rapid changes. With expansion of private car ownership, urban cities
become more congested; time losses from traffic congestion are estimated to cost the equivalent
of 2% of GDP in Europe and 2–5% in Asia. In the near future, computer-driven driver-less cars
and trucks are expected to dramatically reduce congestion. New approaches to urban systems
ecology and smarter cities that are beginning to be invented and implemented should improve
environmental impacts. See Global Challenges 2 on water and 13 on energy for additional
approaches to addressing these resources for growing populations.
While the challenges presented by increasing population growth, migration to urban areas,
and climate change are formidable, the combination of technology, knowledge sharing, and
smart governance is forming a new kind of city—the Smart City. Smart Cities use new
technology to create more-efficient, data-driven cities, which can help protect the environment.
Some $8.1 billion was spent on Smart City technologies in 2010, and the figure is estimated to
reach $39.5 billion by 2016. There are currently 102 Smart City projects globally, with 73 in
North America and Europe. Some Smart Cities are being built smart from the ground up. Cities
such as Songdo in South Korea and Masdar City in Abu Dhabi are highlighted by the Smart City
Movement. Songdo has 40% parkland, an underground waste disposal system, and a water
recycling center. Though the construction work is not completed, the city houses nearly 40,000
people today. Masdar City is a low-carbon city that uses solar power, wind power, and passive
energy-saving techniques to create an environmentally friendly city. Once completed in 2025,
the city can house some 40,000 people and consumes one-fifth as much energy as a similarly
sized conventional city. India plans to build no fewer than 100 Smart Cities by 2022.
Older cities are also using technology to become more efficient and protect the environment.
New York City has a website called dontflush.me, which guides residents on when not to flush
their toilet in order to reduce sewage pollution in New York City Harbor. Rio de Janeiro has
installed sensors and cameras around the entire city to help monitor traffic issues, social unrest,
and other issues. Singapore’s Jurong Lake District is experimenting with an Intelligent Energy
System that will “allow the city to better manage electricity demand, and offer consumers
improved services and products that will allow them to actively manage their energy
consumption, utility bills and carbon footprint.”
In 2014, the International Standards Organization published ISO 37120—indicators for city
services and quality of life to help measure the sustainable development of communities. The
areas covered by ISO 37120 are economy, education, energy, environment, finance, fire and
emergency response, governance, health, recreation, safety, shelter, solid waste,
telecommunications and innovation, transportation, urban planning, wastewater, and water and
sanitation. Cities are beginning to partner with private corporations such as IBM, Cisco, GE, and
Siemens to collect, analyze, and use the data for better decision-making.
Population dynamics are changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and
low fertility, with an increasingly elderly population worldwide. The world’s fertility rate has
fallen from 6 children per woman in 1900 to 5 in 1950 and 2.45 today. If fertility rates continue

to fall, world population could actually shrink to 6.2 billion by 2100, creating an elderly world
difficult to support. Today, life expectancy at birth is 70.5 years, which is projected to grow to 81
by 2100; with advances in longevity research, this projection will increase. The longevity genes
that give the bowhead whale a 200-year-plus life span were found, which might be used to
extend human life. The population aged 60 or over is expected to increase from 12% (864
million) in 2014 to 21% (2 billion) in 2050, with 20% of the older population aged 80 or more.
Some 22% of Europeans were 60 or older in 2012, compared with 11% in Asia, 10% in Latin
America, and 6% in Africa. The share of world's older people living in the less developed
regions will increase from 66% today to 79% by 2050.
The population is expected to decrease in more than 43 countries between now and 2050. By
2050, there could be as many people over 65 as under 15, requiring new concepts of retirement.
Countering this “retirement problem” is the potential for future scientific and medical
breakthroughs that could give people longer and more productive lives than most would believe
possible today. Human brain projects in the U.S., Europe, and Asia may learn how to prevent
mental deterioration in old age and even increase intelligence. People will work longer and
create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation to reduce the economic burden
on younger generations and to maintain living standards. Meanwhile, half the population is under
age 18 in 17 developing countries, and the world’s youth population could exceed 3.5 billion by
the end of the century. Some 120 million young people reach working age every year. The
extended retirement age may undermine the prospects for employment for the youth, potentially
leading to prolonged economic and political instability.
Some 805 million people, or 11.3% of the world’s population, were clinically
undernourished in the 2012–14 period, down from over 1 billion (18.7%) in the 1990–92 period.
The mortality rate for children younger than 5 dropped by nearly half between 1990 and 2013.
Despite this progress, concerns are increasing over the variety and nutritional quality of food.
FAO estimates that 30% (2 billion people) suffer from “hidden hunger.” This is a situation in
which the intake of calories is sufficient but the amount of vitamins and minerals is not.
Industrial agriculture can reduce the nutrient content of crops, thus escalating the risk of hidden
hunger. About one in eight people in the world are chronically undernourished. FAO lists 35
countries that are in need of external food assistance, and the WFP provides food assistance to
more than 81 million people in 75 countries. Meanwhile, more than 2.1 billion people, or nearly
30% of the global population, are overweight (BMI 25 and above) or obese (BMI 30 and above).
Obesity is responsible for about 5% of all deaths per year globally and costs $2 trillion annually
in health care and lost productivity. In high-income countries and emerging economies, the cost
of healthy food has increased more than that of less healthy options over the last 30 years, thus
encouraging diets that lead to overweight and obesity. Around 44 million (6.7%) of the world’s
children less than five years old were overweight or obese in 2012; 10 million of them were in
the WHO African Region, where levels of child obesity have increased rapidly.
In some of these countries, agricultural lands (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa) are being sold
or leased to foreign investors to feed people in those countries. Since 2006, more than 400 large-

scale land grabs covering nearly 35 million hectares of land in 66 countries have been reported.
Europe- and Asia-based investors account for about two-thirds of the deals listed by GRAIN.
Grain imports to the Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa increased to 70 million
tons in 2011, more than doubling since 1990. The OECD estimates that the private sector’s
investment in farmland and agricultural infrastructure is as much as $25 billion and could double
or triple over the next three to five years. Responsible Agricultural Investment, backed by the
World Bank and UN agencies, aims to promote investment that respects local rights and
livelihoods, but it is heavily criticized by NGOs as a move to legitimize land grabbing.
To keep up with population and economic growth, food production should increase by 70%
by 2050. Meat consumption is predicted to increase from 37 kg/person/year in 2000 to over 52
kg/person/year by 2050; if so, then 50% of cereal production would go to animal feed. Over the
last 20 years, inflation-adjusted food prices have doubled and may rise by an additional 150% by
2030. In food-import-dependent poor countries, where people already spend up to 80% of their
incomes on food, a price hike could mean starvation. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 171
points in April 2015—1.2% lower than the figure a year ago and nearly 30% lower than the peak
in 2011. However, food prices may rise again due to increasing affluence (especially in India and
China), soil erosion and the loss of cropland, increasing fertilizer costs, market speculation,
aquifer depletion, falling water tables and water pollution, diversion of crops to biofuels,
increasing meat consumption, falling food reserves, diversion of water from rural to urban, and a
variety of climate change impacts. There are enough food resources and varieties in the world to
feed everyone, but their management and distribution are deficient, ending up with about 33% of
the food produced for human consumption being wasted. In industrial countries, some 30% of
food is wasted at the consumption level, while in developing ones, an estimated 40% is wasted at
the production level, due to lack of adequate infrastructure and commercialization networks.
"Pyramiding" or "stacking"—a process to insert multiple rust resistance genes in a single
variety of wheat—may help prevent pandemics caused by such agents as the Ug99 fungus;
nevertheless, creating alternatives would be wise to avoid future pandemics like the Ug99
outbreak. Conventional farming relying on expensive inputs is not very resilient to climatic
change. Agricultural productivity could decline 9–21% in developing countries by 2050 as a
result of global warming. Small-scale farmers can double food production within 10 years by
using ecological methods. Agroecological farming projects have shown an average crop yield
increase of 80% in 57 countries, with an average increase of 116% for all African projects. GM
cotton crops in China have cut pesticide use in half since the introduction of insect-resistant BT
cotton in 2007, but monocultures undermine biodiversity, which is critical for agricultural
viability.
New agricultural approaches are needed, such as:
 Producing pure meat without growing animals (demonstrated in 2013)
 Better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management
 Genetic engineering for higher-yielding and drought-tolerant crops
 Reducing losses from farm to mouth

 Precision agriculture and aquaculture

 Planting sea grass to bring back wild fish populations
 Saltwater agriculture (halophytes) on coastlines to produce food for humans and animals,
biofuels, and pulp for the paper industry as well as to absorb CO2, which also reduces the
drain on freshwater agriculture and land, and to increase employment
 Processing of insects for animal feed ("Insects are everywhere and they reproduce
quickly, and have high growth and feed conversion rates and a low environmental
footprint," according to FAO; 2 billion people worldwide already supplement their diet
with insects today
The global market for organic food and beverages increased threefold in the past decade,
with organic agriculture found on 37 million hectares in 160 countries. The World Bank
estimates that 62% of the seafood eaten in 2030 will be farm-raised and 70% of that will be
consumed in Asia. China is expected to produce 37% of the world’s fish by 2030, while
consuming 38% of the world’s food fish.
Examples of other ways to help balance future populations and resources include:
 Encourage vegetarianism; floating ocean solar agriculture, and fish farms
 Anticipate potential impacts of synthetic biology and other longevity technologies that
could make aging healthier and more productive
 Accelerate safe nanotechnology R&D (to help reduce material use per unit of output
while increasing quality)
 Encourage telemedicine (including online self-diagnosis expert software)
 Integrate urban sensors, mesh networks, and intelligent software to create smarter cities
that let citizens help in urban improvements
 Teach urban systems ecology
Without more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and
disease seem inevitable. Continual improvements and applications of ICT are key to improving
the match between needs and resources worldwide and in real time.
Challenge 3 will be addressed seriously when the annual growth in world population drops to
fewer than 30 million, the number of hungry people decreases by half, the majority of cities have
set goals to become Eco-smart Cities, and new approaches to aging become economically viable.
Sub-Saharan Africa: African countries spent $35 billion on food imports (excluding fish) per
year. Increasing agricultural productivity and maximizing the potential of sustainable,
nutritionally rich agriculture and aquaculture to provide food, jobs, and export earnings should
be the region’s priority. Grow Africa has put $10 billion from 200 companies into improving the
agricultural production of Africa. Half of Africa’s population is 17 or younger.

More than half of global population growth between now and 2050 is expected to occur in
Africa, with Nigeria set to have the world's third highest population by 2050. Africa’s population
doubled in the past 27 years to reach 1 billion. It is projected to reach 2.7 billion in 2060,
possibly growing to 3.6 billion by 2100. The number of those who are 15–64 (working age) is
expected to triple between 2005 and 2060. By 2050, one in every three births will be African,
and almost one in three children under the age of 18 will also be African. Yet the population of
older persons in Africa is projected to more than triple by 2050, reaching 212 million. Only 28%
of married women of childbearing age are using contraceptives, compared with the global
average of 62%. In Ethiopia, where the use of modern contraception reaches 27%, the fertility
rate is now below the replacement level in its capital, Addis Ababa.
UNICEF estimated 60% of urban dwellers live in slum conditions today; children in these
conditions are less likely to go to school and more likely to have poor nutrition, increasing future
unemployment, and probabilities of prolonged social conflicts. People under the age of 25
account for about 60% of the total unemployed in sub-Saharan Africa. Historically, however,
growing populations have often led to economic growth. Yet increasing population density,
coupled with declining soil fertility and climate change, will put immense pressure on natural
resources. Much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS, which has
also lowered life expectancy in some countries.
Conflicts and corruption continue to prevent development investments, ruin fertile farmland,
create refugees, compound food emergencies, and prevent better management of natural
resources. Africa has more than half the world's unused potential farmland.
Middle East and North Africa: Approximately a third of the population in the Middle East is
below 15; another third is 15–29; and average youth unemployment is over 27% (some 44% for
young females). The population of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is expected to reach
53.5 million in 2020 from 36 million today, and their food import bill is expected to double from
$24.1 billion in 2009 to $53.1 billion in 2020. In Libya and Tunisia, the average age of women's
first marriage increased from about 20 to 29 over the last 30 years. The average number of
children born to women decreased more than 50% during the same period.
Asia and Oceania: More than 60% of the projected increase in urban population from 2010 to
2050 will take place in Asia, but cities in the region are particularly vulnerable to climate change
because of their high concentration in hazard-prone locations. Even today, more than 500 million
people in Asia are slum dwellers. By 2025, China will have more than 220 cities with
populations over 1 million and eight megacities with over 10 million. China’s urbanization rate
has more than doubled to 55% today from 26% in 1990 and is expected to reach 60%, according
to their “National New-type Urbanization Plan." Overinvestment in housing, however, leaves 49
million housing units, or 22.4% of China’s urban housing, vacant. China is growing old before it
has grown rich enough to support a large aging population. More than 10 million people died in
China in 2014, and the number is expected to double between 2025 and 2030. The figure far

exceeds the capacity of existing crematoriums and will result in excessive production of dioxins
and other pollutants. Meanwhile, China’s infertility rate rose to around 12.5% of people of
childbearing age, more than four times higher than it was 20 years ago. Only one-third of the
semen at Shanghai’s main sperm bank meets WHO standards.
The population of Japan decreased 0.17% in 2014, and its current population of 127 million
can shrink to 87 million by 2060. In Safe Cities Index 2015, Tokyo was ranked as the most
populous but also the safest city among the 50 surveyed worldwide, followed by Singapore and
Osaka, but suicide and depression cost Japan $32 billion per year.
India’s population will surpass that of China around 2028 and continue to grow for several
decades. By 2050, Hindus will become the world’s third largest population, and India will
overtake Indonesia as the country with the largest Muslim population.
Europe: Driven by the war in Syria and unrest in Libya, the number of migrants and asylum
seekers arriving in Italy by sea was more than 218,000 in 2014, compared with 80,000 in 2013.
Taking into account the projected inward migration flows to the EU over the next decades, the
EU population as a whole will be larger in 2060 than in 2013. Yet the population is expected to
decrease in about half of the EU member states. During the same period, the ratio of people aged
65 or above relative to those aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 27.8% to 50.1%. Women’s
life expectancy at birth in the EU by 2060 could reach 89.1 years, up from 82.5 in 2010; men’s
could be 84.6 years, up from 76.7 in 2010. People aged less than 15 accounted for 18.6% of the
European population in 1994 but just 15.6% in 2014. Germany has the lowest proportion, with
children accounting for 13.1% of the population. Yet 13% of the youth in the EU are considered
NEET (Not in Employment, Education, or Training), and in Greece and Spain the share is 20.4%
and 18.6% respectively. The EU spends €153 billion per year for measures related to "labor
market disengagement of young people."
Europe’s low fertility rate and its aging and shrinking population will force changes in
pension and social security systems, incentives for more children, and increases in immigrant
labor, affecting international relations, culture, and the social fabric. The number of Greeks and
Spaniards moving to other EU countries doubled between 2007 and 2013. The Center for
Strategic and International Studies forecasts that the share of people of Muslim origin will grow
to 25% in France and 33% in Germany by 2050. East to West European migration is expected to
continue, as are migrations from rural to urban areas and from North Africa and the Middle East
to Southern Europe; these migrations are expected to increase as long as poverty, civil wars, and
social and health problems continue.
Russia’s population peaked at 149 million in 1991 and then began a decade-long decline,
falling at a rate of about 0.5% per year due to declining birth rates, rising death rates, and
emigration; the last few years, however, have seen some population growth, increases in life
expectancy, and immigration. In 2014 Russia’s population increased by 2 million to 146 million
after annexation of Crimea and after1 million ethnic Russian-Ukrainians migrated to Russia.

Latin America: LAC is the only region that has collectively achieved the MDG of halving the
proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015, and the region is also on track of meeting
the more stringent World Food Summit goal of halving the total number of undernourished
people, which is about 37 million today. The region has about 12% of the world's arable land,
8.5% of the population, 33% of the freshwater resources, 21% of the natural forests, and
substantial mineral resources. About 85% of the region will be urban by 2030, requiring massive
urban and agricultural infrastructural investments. Latin America’s share of population 60 or
older is likely to increase from 10% in 2012 to 25% in 2050.
Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua have approved food
security laws to ensure local agricultural products are primarily used to feed their own
populations and not for export; nine more countries are planning the same. With 70% of adults
being overweight or obese, Mexico faces the most serious obesity crisis in the region. Mexico
introduced a tax on sugary drinks and junk food. Approximately one-third of Mexico's
population lives in rural areas. PROSPERA has been working with the rural poor in Mexico by
paying families if their children regularly attend school, make health clinic visits, and receive
nutritional support; it also promotes more responsible use of rural natural resources.
In Mexico, by 2050, half of the population will be older than 43, with an 18-year increase in
median age. As fertility rates fall in Brazil and longevity increases by 50% over the next 20 years,
the ability to meet financial needs of the elderly will diminish; hence, the concept of retirement
will have to change, and social inclusion will have to improve to avoid future intergenerational
conflicts.
Peru has a 10-year moratorium on imports of GMO products; Peru is one of the world’s
leading exporters of organic food (coffee, cocoa, quinoa, bananas), with $3 billion in potential
annual revenue. The LAC region possesses a substantial part of the most important
nonrenewable mineral reserves; CELAC is contemplating new strategies for increasing the
exercise of sovereignty over natural resources for raising countries' benefits and improving the
living standard of the local population.
North America: Across the region, the share of population 60 and over is expected to rise from
19% in 2012 to 27% in 2050. The number of those 65 or older in the U.S. is expected to grow
from about 40 million in 2009 to 72 million in 2030. Minorities in the U.S. are now the majority
of those under one year old. The number of elderly pensioners jumped 1,300% since the 1980s.
An MIT study finds air pollution causes about 200,000 early deaths each year in the United
States. More than a million U.S. households with children have incomes below $2 a person a day.
Nearly 15% of American households are considered food-insecure today, compared with 10.5%
in 2000, and more than 1 million Canadians struggle to put nutritious food on the table.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of people in the U.S. are overweight or obese, and 8.3% have diabetes.
On average, every American wastes 253 pounds of food every year. Reducing “throw-away”
consumption could change the population-resource balance. Advances in biotechnology,
nanotech, and individualized genomic medicine are just beginning to have an impact on medical

practice; hence, dramatic breakthroughs in longevity seem inevitable in 25–50 years. North
American farmers are increasingly exploring how to make farming more resilient to climate
change and weather extremes, while global warming should increase Canadian grain exports.
Vancouver is the fifth most livable city of the world, while Toronto and Ottawa are ranked
15 and 16th respectively.
th

Global Challenge 4. How can genuine democracy emerge from

authoritarian regimes?
A global consciousness and more-democratic social and political structures are developing in
response to increasing interdependencies, the changing nature of power, and the need to
collectively address major planetary existential challenges. The apparent efforts of some
governments, elite powers, or religious extremists to stop the long-range trend toward democracy
are countered by the rapid democratization of information and intelligence in the cyber-era.
Synergistically self-organized human rights movements for sustainable global democratic
systems are taking place all over the world. Regardless of the trigger—autocracy, political or
religious repression, economic inequalities, or restrictions on civil liberties—increasing numbers
of more globally conscious, media-savvy advocates of self-determination are taking to the streets
and the Internet, exhibiting unprecedented power in resisting external coercion. This renewed
democratic commitment and courage is contagious, inspiring others worldwide to take action and
organize for fundamental structural changes.

Yet if these movements do not mature into more effective systems to implement new
strategies to address the global challenges of our times, democratic gains could be lost. They can
turn to anarchy or oligarchy and challenge the foundations of modern democratic ideals and
practices. Unless present outdated institutional, legal, and governance systems evolve, new forms
of authoritarian regimes, organized crime, political/religious extremism, and restricted individual
access to new resources could counter long-term trends of democratization.
Although the perceptions and implementations of democracy differ globally, it is generally
accepted that democracy is a relationship between a responsible citizenry and a responsive
government that encourages participation in the political process and guarantees basic rights.
According to Freedom House:
 World political and civil liberties deteriorated for the ninth consecutive year in 2014
 61 countries declined; 33 countries improved
 Only 40% of the world population living in 89 countries are rated as “free” and enjoying
democratic values
 24% of world population live in 55 “partly free” countries
 36% of the global population (about 2.6 billion people) live in 51 countries rated "not free"
(three more than in 2013), although over 50% of these people live in just one country: China
 The number of electoral democracies increased to 125 countries (the highest on record),
representing 63% of the 195 countries assessed
Mobilized through social media, young people are getting more politically active and
inclined to vote. However, the relevance of representative democracy and the voting systems are
increasingly questioned and should be adjusted to the speed of the Internet era. The EIU
Democracy Index notes an increasing popular disappointment with democratic achievements and
a declining confidence in political and government institutions. Of the 165 countries and 2
territories assessed (accounting for almost all of world population):
 only 24 countries (12.5% of world population) are considered “full democracies”
 52 countries (35.5% of population) are rated “flawed democracies”
 39 countries (14.4% of population) are considered “hybrid regimes”
 52 countries (some 37.6% of the population) are "authoritarian" regimes.
Freedom House found that press freedom also continued to decline, reaching the lowest level
of the past decade. Based on the 2014 assessment of 199 countries:
 14% of world population, living in 63 countries, enjoy a relatively "free" media
 42% of the population live in 71 countries with "partly free" media
 44% live in 65 countries with a "not free" media environment
New national security regulations, intimidation by militant and criminal groups, and
manipulation of news for economic or political interests by news-media owners or governments
became the main impediments to objective journalism. The 2015 World Press Freedom Index
computed by Reporters Without Borders also notes a worldwide decline in the freedom of
information, with some 66% of the 180 countries surveyed scoring worse than the previous year.

A regional assessment (on a score from 0 to 100; 0 representing total freedom and 100 no
freedom at all) shows a score of:
 18.6 for Europe
 30.8 for the Americas
 35.9 for Africa
 42.6 for Asia-Pacific
 46.1 for Eastern Europe and Central Asia
 49.2 for the Middle East and North Africa
The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that 1,126 journalists have been killed since
1992, with complete impunity in 87% out of all cases; most victims covered politics (46%), war
(38%), corruption (20%), and human rights (20%). The UN Plan of Action on the Safety of
Journalists adopted in 2012 outlines more than 100 areas of work in which different UN agencies
and civil society groups intend to contribute to securing the safety of journalists, operating at
national and global levels.
Since an educated and truthfully informed public is critical to democracy, we have to learn
how to anticipate and counter ideological disinformation, infoglut, censorship in its many forms,
interest group spins of information, and future forms of information warfare.
While the Internet has become the backbone for the free flow of information, it has also
increased the quantity and quality of information that is stored about its users. The implications
of this should be discussed globally to further develop trust and the spirit of democracy.
Confidence in elected governments is damaged by abuse of executive power, impunity, and
growing power of lobbying. The interests of many economic elites’ monopolizing natural and
other resources can undermine political institutions. Some 80 people together own more wealth
than the bottom 50% of the world population. The World Bank estimates that worldwide bribery
stands at $1–1.6 trillion annually, not including other forms of corruption. How many
government decisions could this buy? Conservative estimates of organized crime's annual
income are over $3 trillion.
Are an informed public, independent judiciary, and a free press enough to prevent the slide of
a democracy toward a plutocracy? Can traditional forms of democracy withstand these threats, or
will the growing global consciousness and new communications tools give birth to more-
advanced forms of democratic governance?
Laws and institutions benefiting the majority (while ensuring individual rights) and a strong
civil society to enforce accountability are critical to counter the concentration of power, media
monopolies, and impunity. USAID observes that developing countries that have ineffective
government institutions, rampant corruption, and a weak rule of law have a 30–45% higher risk
for civil war and extreme criminal violence than other developing countries.
Demographic shifts and population dynamics compounded with economic volatility, natural
disasters, political turmoil, and increasing extremism and organized crime require a new global
legal framework for migration. Many refugees are not covered by the Refugee Convention or are
landing in countries that do not offer protection. The Institute for Economics and Peace estimates

that almost 1% of the global population (about 73 million people) are refugees or IDPs. UNHCR
estimates that at mid-2015 the worldwide population of concern was over 42.9 million, including
about 11.9 million refugees and over 23.9 million IDPs protected or assisted by UNHCR. The
Global Slavery Index reveals that 35.8 million people live in modern-slavery conditions
worldwide, while the ILO found that about 21 million people are victims of forced labor.
Old ideological, ethnic, and nationalistic legacies have to be addressed in the process from an
authoritarian state to a more-democratic regime. If addressed too strongly, old conflicts can re-
emerge; address too weakly, and the legitimacy of new regimes is threatened. Sustainable
democracy in a globalized world implies shared perceptions of justice and security, as well as
accountability and international statutes adjusted to protect the rights achieved and the trend
toward democracy.
Amnesty International notes a 28% increase in imposition of the death penalty in 2014 versus
2013, to a total of 2,466, although the real number is difficult to know, since China—which
carries out thousands of executions a year, more than the rest of the world combined—keeps
these numbers a state secret. However, the number of countries performing executions decreased
from 42 in 1995 to 22 in 2014, and 140 countries have a total abolition in law or practice,
signalling a moving away from this most barbarian infringement of human rights.
Some factors helping the evolution of more global democratic systems include legitimate
tamper-proof election systems with internationally accepted standards for election observers, a
better educated world public with open access to information, economic freedom with a
guaranteed basic income to all people, more democratic institutions, knowledge diplomacy, data
sharing, more efficient international regulations that are globally binding and enforced, and the
growing number and influence of international NGOs. This is the topic that needs our constant
and increased attention. The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court has 122 states
parties and 139 signatories, increasing the international potential for accountability and reduced
impunity. New political parties, such as the Pirate Parties in about 70 countries (including post-
Arab-Spring Tunisia), promote direct democracy and participation in government, civil rights,
transparency, and the free sharing of knowledge and information.
More-participatory democracy may grow from e-government to we-government. The e-
generation is more borderless and wants to design new worlds. Petitions circulating around the
world are beginning to influence decisions and hold governments and large organizations
accountable through public participation rather than just relying on national judiciary systems.
News is independently reported or validated. Some argue that access to the Internet should
become a human right (as are libraries) as a tool for an informed public, freedom of expression,
and association. The resolution “Right to Privacy in the Digital Age” adopted by the UN General
Assembly in December 2013 called on all countries to take measures to end activities such as
electronic surveillance, interception of digital communications, and collection of personal data,
which violate the fundamental “tenet of a democratic society.” Yet enforcement of such
international directives remains problematic, as they could interfere with nation-states
perspectives.

Since democracies tend not to fight each other and since humanitarian crises are far more
likely under authoritarian than democratic regimes, expanding democracy is sine qua non for
building a peaceful and just future for all. Meanwhile, international procedures are needed to
assist failed states or regions within states, and intervention strategies need to be designed for
when a state constitutes a significant threat to its citizens or others.
Challenge 4 will be addressed seriously when strategies to eliminate threats to democracy are
in place, when less than 10% of the world lives in nondemocratic systems, when Internet and
media freedom protection is internationally enforced, when enforcement institutions function
without political, economic, or other interference, and when all citizens exercise their rights to
elect and be elected.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Steady economic progress and growing stability in most sub-Saharan
African countries, as well as a growing active civil society, are increasingly developing
democratic structures with pluralistic political engagement and better government accountability
across the region. More and more countries are holding competitive and peaceful elections, and
the freedom of expression and communication increases with the spread of the Internet and
growing consciousness about civil rights and liberties.
Sub-Saharan Africa was the only region experiencing a slight improvement in its overall
score of media freedom for 2014. Yet only 3% of the population live in the 4 countries rated with
"free" media, 58% live in 25 countries with "partly free" media, while 39% of the region's
population live in 21 countries with "not free" press. Freedom House found that 12% of sub-
Saharan Africa’s population live in 10 countries rated “free,” 48% live in 18 countries “partly
free,” while 40% live in the 21 countries with “not free” status. Over the past year, notable
improvements were seen in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau (which also had their media status
changed from "not free" to "partly free"), while Burundi and Uganda declined from "partly free"
to "not free" due to increased repressions against political and civil liberties. Equatorial Guinea, a
high-income country, has the world’s largest gap between its per capita wealth and its human
development score. The Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance adopted by the
African Union in 2007 and in force since 2012 had been ratified by 23 countries by the end of
2013.
Some 5.6 million people of the region are estimated as living in slavery conditions, with a
high prevalence in Mauritania (4% of the population, the world's highest), followed by DRC,
Sudan, CAR, and Republic of Congo, each with over 1% prevalence. The conflict in South
Sudan continues with impunity, aggravating abuses against the population; UNHCR estimates
some 1.95 million IDPs and 293,000 refugees for 2015. Islamist militants of Boko Haram have
yet to be brought to justice for the horrific crimes and terrorization of civilians in Cameroon,
Chad, Niger, and Nigeria and for the use of sexual violence as a weapon.

Human Rights Watch notes that South Africa continues to struggle with corruption,
socioeconomic and political rights, freedom of expression, and weak state institutions.
Zimbabwe, Angola, Chad, and others are still mired in authoritarian regimes masking as
democracies.
While democratic norms have opened up civil society, Africa is yet to experience “strong and
vibrant civil society,” especially in organizing to demand better government, issues, policies, and
programs. However, this might be changed by increasing numbers of educated, unemployed
youth with mobile phones and Internet access.
Middle East and North Africa: This is the region with the worst political rights and civil
liberties in the world, and the situation worsened over the past years. Some of the lowest-rated
countries are in this region: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
The Arab Spring has been followed by chaotic geopolitics, restlessness, and sometimes violent
movements. Nevertheless, in 2014, Tunisia joined Israel as a country rated “free” by Freedom
House, becoming the first Arab country with this status. These two countries contain 5% of the
region's population; another 10% live in 3 “partly free” countries, while 85% of the region (over
349 million people) live in 13 “not free” countries. The vast majority of the population, 93%,
live in countries with no free media; 5% live in the 3 countries with partly free media, and only
2% of the population live in the region's single "free" media country, Israel. Reporters without
Borders notes that there are entire regions controlled by non-state actors, where independent
reporting or access to information doesn't even exist. Iraq and Syria are the top deadliest
countries for journalists.
So far, at least 220,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict and some 12.2 million people
need humanitarian assistance through the country. UNHCR estimates that the population of
concern in the region is over 11.3 million, including some 7.8 million IDPs and 2.6 million
refugees.
An estimated 2.2 million people live in modern slavery, with prevalence of over 1% in Qatar,
Syria, UAE, and Iraq. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, and Qatar are neither party to nor signatories
of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
Executions in Iran reached intolerable proportions; reportedly, at least 852 persons were
executed in the period July 2013–June 2014, and more than 340 persons in the first months of
2015, including women and political prisoners. Saudi Arabia also increased its executions,
reaching 87 by mid-2015, compared with a total of about 90 people in 2014.
The Arab Spring/Awakening could open new perspectives, despite the violent response of
some countries’ authoritarian regimes. Tunisia, which adopted a new constitution in 2014, might
set the example for an emergent democracy in the Arab world. However, MENA has yet to
resolve the security disaster across the region and bring about the economic and social reforms
needed for any burgeoning democracy to have a future. Meantime, empowering youth
movements and civil society in the region, and creating job opportunities might be a better
strategy than violence for the West to help build peace and stability.

Asia and Oceania: The progress of democracy in the region has been irregular over the past few
years. For 2014, Freedom House rated 16 countries (with 38% of the region's population) as
“free,” 14 countries as “partially free,” and 42% of the region's population living in 9 “not free”
countries. India—the world’s largest democracy—shows further improvement with the growth
of an anti-corruption movement. However, it has yet to address concentrated power, increased
centralization, and the caste system. Thailand had its status changed from "partly free" to "not
free" due to the military coup of May 2014 followed by severe civil liberties restrictions. Only
5% of the Asia-Pacific's population live in the 14 countries with "free" media; 47% live in 13
countries with partially free media, while 48% (1.9 billion people) live in 13 countries with "not
free" media.
Since China is home to about half of the world population presently living in countries rated
“not free,” a modification of its status would change the world map of democracy. Eric Schmidt,
the former Google Chairman believes that will happen after the “Great Firewall of China” is
opened. Yet China has increased the crackdowns on freedom of speech and the Internet and has
intensified ideological controls and censorship. It is estimated that over 7,000 death sentences are
passed and over 3,000 executions are carried out per year. The Third Plenum of the 18th Chinese
Communist Party Congress held in November 2013 reinforced promoting "socialism with
Chinese characteristics" but did not include any significant political or civil liberty reforms for
the next decade.
The Global Slavery Index 2014 estimates that over 23.5 million people of the Asia-Pacific
region are enslaved; the countries with the highest number of people living in conditions of
slavery are India with 14 million, China with 3.3 million, and Pakistan with 2.1 million, while
Uzbekistan has the highest prevalence, with 4% of the population estimated enslaved.
In South Asia, repression of political and civil liberties is aggravated by increasing ethnic and
sectarian conflicts, mainly in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. In an effort to curtail
access to information and freedom of expression and the press, Nauru enacted restrictions to the
Internet and social media, and a $6,500 visa fee for foreign journalists. ASEAN's strict policy of
non-interference—allowing members' abuses without consequences—is considered one of the
causes of the deepening humanitarian crises of refugees in Southeast Asia in spring 2015. In
addition to over 2,000 people who have landed in other countries, there are thousands estimated
stranded at sea as a result of a crackdown on human traffickers by the three main destination
countries: Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Most migrants are Rohingya fleeing persecution in
Myanmar, a country with critical human rights abuses. At mid-2015, there were some 1.5 million
Myanmar people of concern to UNHCR, of which more than 810,000 were people without
citizenship and some 120,000 were refugees in neighboring countries.
Europe: All 28 EU countries are rated “free,” and the region has the best freedom of the press
score. The EU Parliament is the largest transnational democratic electorate in the world, and
political and fiscal integration helped the spread and development of democracy across Europe.

The European Citizens’ Initiative enacted in 2012 allows citizens to initiate legislative proposals
if backed by 1 million citizens. Governments across the continent are increasingly involving
citizens in local and legislative development, and most EU countries have a relatively good E-
Government Development Index score. A code of conduct adopted in December 2011 requires
members of the European Parliament to disclose their financial statements and meetings with
lobbyists. The autumn 2014 Eurobarometer survey showed that the Europeans have a higher trust
in the EU (37%) than in national governments (29%) and that support for the EU is increasing,
with 39% having a positive image of the EU versus 22% having a negative one. However, only
40% of the Europeans surveyed feel that their voice counts.
The Eurozone crises and the rise of nationalist and anti-EU parties might challenge further
integration. The Scottish 55% pro-EU vote in the September 2014 referendum created a
precedent, but it is also signalling that stronger and more equitable institutions and policies are
needed to keep the EU together. The EU needs a coherent migration policy to integrate the
growing number of immigrants and asylum seekers and to avoid increasing nationalism and
extremism in some regions. If current trends continue, by 2050 some 20% of Europe's total
population might be Muslim, which could challenge Europe's generally secular and democratic
values. Turkey, which hopes to join the EU, is still rated "partly free," and its "not free" press
environment continues to deteriorate.
Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Russia 136 out of
175 countries assessed (though improving from 154th place in 2010). Despite the 2008 anti-
corruption measures adopted by the Russian government and the country's adherence to several
EU and international anti-corruption legal frameworks, corruption is reportedly rampant in
Russia, affecting all aspects of the society and undermining its democratic development. Its law
to prevent aggressive behavior of demonstrators is seen as another effort to restrict civil liberties.
There are speculations that the Eurasian Economic Union (modeled on the EC) might lead to
further integration toward a political, military and cultural union.
Controversy over Serbian political crimes continues, and the ethnic tension between Slavic
and Albanian populations began intensifying in several countries in 2015. Corruption, autocracy,
and lack of progressive institutions also hinder the democratization process in most Central and
East European (non-EU) countries.
Latin America: Rampant corruption and violence—mostly related to illegal trafficking—are the
gravest impediments to development of democracy in the region. Freedom House rated 22
countries in the region “free,” 10 “partly free,” and only Cuba (1% of the region's population) as
“not free.” However, only 2% of the region's population live in the three countries rated as
having "free" press (Costa Rica, Uruguay, and Suriname); some 813 million people live in 15
countries with "partly free" media, while over 185 million people live in the 5 countries with no
free media (Cuba, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, and Venezuela). Significant declines were noted
in Honduras, Peru, and Venezuela, while Mexico's score is the lowest in the past 10 years, due to
a new telecommunications law.

The big challenges for the region are the institutional weakness for addressing social and
political demands of people, as well as the interlinkages of organized crime, businesses, and
government corruption. The “war” against the drug cartels and their internal wars, mainly in
Mexico, caused thousands of victims and internally displaced persons and reduced civil liberty.
Although in many parts of Mexico the political power vacuums are being filled by ambitious
criminal organizations, civil society is getting increasingly engaged and demands transparency
and accountability, setting the stage for a more democratic system. Human Rights Watch reports
that in Peru and Ecuador, the government used excessive power and violence to stop protests
against mining projects.
Some 1.3 million people in the LAC region are estimated as enslaved, with the highest
prevalence in Haiti, at 2.3% of the population. However, a sense of solidarity of the people and
increased influence of civil society organizations, constitutional reforms supported by the
majority of the population in Bolivia and Ecuador for strengthening the rights of indigenous
peoples, as well as examples of democratic governance set by Chile and Brazil are all helping to
strengthen democratic processes. Many left-leaning or populist governments such as in
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela have been re-elected due to their focus on the
poor majority. Cuba began easing state surveillance, access to the Internet, and political
discussions, as well as opening access to foreign travel and self-employment.
The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States continues to foster Latin American
integration as a strategy for the region's future stability. At its third summit, held in January 2015,
the 33 participant countries adopted a package of 26 declarations that serve as a framework for
further social, economic, and political development of the region.
North America: In Canada and the U.S., increasing political polarization and brinkmanship,
along with new surveillance measures, are affecting public confidence in North American
democracy at home and internationally. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights
has 168 States Party and 7 signatories—but the United States “unsigned it.” The 114th U.S.
Congress—in power until January 2017—is one of the most diverse in American history, with
20% female and over 17% non-white. Although state and municipal governments in the U.S. are
seen as increasingly effective in implementing programs on a more bipartisan basis, there is a
growing uneasiness about local ordinances being pre-empted by state governments motivated by
economic or political interests that are not necessarily reflecting the best interest of the local
population. The cost of America’s presidential race reached a record $2 billion and efforts to "get
the money out of politics" continue to fail.
The U.S. is ranked 49th as far as press freedom, and the controversies around WikiLeaks and
the revelation about NSA procedures continue. New legislation has been passed to reform the
Patriot Act and NSA's surveillance powers over bulk collection of U.S. phone data. USAID, the
White House, and other U.S. agencies and organizations have several programs dedicated to
supporting democracy and the rule of law around the world, but after the Afghanistan and Iraq
disasters, the legitimacy of U.S. military intervention to counter autocracy is questioned.

Meantime, the OPEN Act bill—for a censorship-free Internet while protecting the rights of
artists and innovators—is using online crowd sourcing for improvements.
Canada is considered the most successful democratic multiethnic model; however, recent
changes to regulations for charity organizations and fraud investigations concerning the last
federal election and some high-ranked officials question the healthy future of Canadian
democracy. Although opposed by 56% of Canadians (and by 75% of the 18–35 year olds), Bill
C-51 Anti-Terrorism Act has been passed by the House of Commons and might become law,
raising concerns over civil liberties and the respect for Canadians' opinions and values.
Concerns also persist in Canada and the U.S. about electoral processes, the concentration of
media ownership, powerful lobbying, and political corruption. Nevertheless, in Alberta's 2015
elections, the NDP won an overwhelming majority, ending a 44-year dynasty of the conservative
party.
Although the Occupy movement might have run out of steam, it expanded way beyond North
America, entering the global consciousness, questioning the abuses of financial power, and
encouraging the exploration of new concepts of political economy and democracy.
Figure 1.4 Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)
Source: Freedom House, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Global Challenge 5. How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating

improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?
Government and corporate future strategy units are proliferating (see Government Future
Strategy Units in GFIS), but they have yet to sufficiently influence decisions on the scale and
with the speed necessarily to address the complex integrated and global nature of accelerating
change. Intergovernmental organizations and public-private collaborations are also increasing,
but they too have to become far more effective.
Decisonmakers are rarely trained in foresight and decisionmaking, even though decision
support and foresight systems are constantly improving—e.g., Big Data analytics, simulations,
collective intelligence systems, indexes, and e-governance participatory systems.
Decisionmakers and their advisers should be trained in futures research for optimal use of these
systems (see GFIS for a 39-chapter collection of Futures Research Methodologies). Government
leaders would be well advised not just to request foresight reports and briefings from futurists
but also to periodically discuss long-range issues with leading futurists. For example, the futurist

Herman Kahn had about 20 discussions with the President of South Korea over a 10-year period
that led to Korea's economic miracle. This was an excellent example of how decisionmaking can
be improved by global foresight.
Decisionmaking and foresight should be taught throughout educational systems, fostering an
awareness that the acceleration of change reduces the time from the recognition of the need to
make a decision to the implementation of that decision. Universities should fund the convergence
of disciplines, teach futures research and synthesis as well as analysis, establish decisionmaking
curricula, and produce generalists in addition to specialists. Futures methodologies can be
converted to teaching techniques so that people learn a subject and its future potentials.
Since decisions are based on beliefs about the future, collecting and responding to diverse
feedback about these beliefs should improve decisionmaking. However, judging information
about the future is increasingly difficult, due to the acceleration, complexity, interdependency,
and globalization of change. In addition, the growing number of people and cultures involved in
decisions also increases uncertainty and ambiguity about the future. The proliferation of choices
seems to be growing beyond our abilities to analyze, synthesize, and make good decisions. We
are so flooded with irrelevant info-noise that it is difficult to know what is truly significant.
As a result, individuals and institutions rely more and more on computer systems. Just as the
autonomic nervous system runs most of our biological decisionmaking, so too will artificial
intelligence connected to sensor systems, Big Data, and the Internet of Things increasingly make
day-to-day decisions for the management of civilization. Augmenting these will be institutional
and individual collective intelligence (emergent properties from synergies among brains,
software, and information) systems for “just-in-time” knowledge to inform decisions.
At first, ubiquitous computing or the Internet of Things is likely to increase the number of
decisions we make per day, constantly changing schedules and priorities, but then as AI apps
proliferate, much of this decisionmaking burden should be reduced. Decisionmaking will be
increasingly augmented by the integration of sensors embedded in products, in buildings, and in
living bodies—all connected with a more intelligent Web. Future synergies among the human
brain projects of the U.S., EC, and China—along with Google’s evolving intelligent personal
assistants and future versions of IBM’s Watson and AI systems—should make us augmented
genius decionmakers compared with today. In the meantime, institutional and personal collective
intelligence systems will help us select and integrate experts, information, and decision support
software to receive and respond to feedback for improving decisions.
The United Nations' Global Pulse is connecting all UN data, related data, and social networks
for real-time intelligence to complement traditional approaches to development planning,
decisionmaking, and monitoring. During 2014 it implemented 25 joint data innovation projects
in partnership with 25 UN and government partners, 30 private-sector collaborators, and
academics from 26 institutions. UN Pulse is credited with forecasting food security and
migration and disease patterns, along with identifying leading indicators of crime, improving
disaster management, and tracking global development in real time.

Yet options to create and update national, global, corporate, and individual foresight are so
complex and changing so rapidly that it is almost impossible for decisionmakers to gather and
understand the information required to make and implement coherent policy. At the same time,
the consequences of incoherent policies are so serious today that new systems are urgently
needed. One approach is to create collective intelligence systems that can better integrate
ongoing feedback among people, information, and software to produce insights beyond the
addition of its parts. This can help secure agreement to make necessary changes. CISs can be
created for issues, countries, companies, universities, individuals, and the world (such as the
Global Futures Intelligence System) and can be connected with other elements of our emerging
global brain and planetary nervous system.
CISs can facilitate the establishment of resilience systems—the capacities to anticipate,
respond, and recover from disasters while identifying future technological and social innovations
and opportunities. Better global, national, and local training and the use of websites for real-time
updating via mobile phones to improve situational awareness are needed to improve resilience
from massive potential future disasters. Implementing and integrating resilience and collective
intelligence systems is one way to improve decisionmaking, given the global and local
acceleration of change.
Humanity needs a global, multifaceted, general long-term view of the future with long-range
goals to facilitate contemporary decisions that lead to a brighter future. (See GFIS International
Assessment of Global Goals for 2050.) Such views and goals should be informed by global and
local futures research. Futures research is the systematic exploration of assumptions about the
future; unfortunately, its work has not been systematically evaluated and applied to improve its
quality and to demonstrate its effect on decisionmaking. Instead, the tyranny of the moment
tends to overrule long-term global perspectives. Short-term, selfish, economic decisionmaking
can be blamed for the 2008 global financial crisis, continued environmental degradation, and
widening income disparities. The long-term goal to land on the moon accelerated technological
innovations and economic growth and lifted the human spirit. The long-term goal to eradicate
smallpox inspired many people to cooperate across cultural and political divides. A U.S.-China
long-term goal on climate change could inspire even greater international collaborations.
In the meantime, national foresight and decisionmaking can be improved. Presidents’ or
Prime Ministers’ foresight or futures units and governments in general could be improved by:
 Creating a network of government and nongovernmental futurists on call for quick
futures assessments (Real-Time Delphi software could support this)
 Requiring a "future considerations" section in policy reporting requirements
 Adding foresight as a performance evaluation criterion for senior government officials
 Including how to connect foresight to decisionmaking in government training programs
(See GIFS: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in
Decisionmaking, which includes a 26-item checklist)
 Testing proposed policies before implementation by postulating random future events of
all sorts and evaluating how these might affect the policies (see prototype at
http://www.changesignals.com (code: whatif))

 Computing and publishing an annual national State of the Future Index

 Synthesizing relevant futures research for an annual state of the nation’s future report
 Including 5–10 year allocations in budgets based on rolling 5–10 year SOFIs, scenarios,
and strategies
 Participating in the informal long-term strategy networks to share best practices
 Establishing a permanent parliamentary "Committee for the Future," as Finland has done,
to provide foresight to other parliamentary committees to improve their decisionmaking
 Creating a collective intelligence system and connecting it to related units in government
agencies and e-government systems
 Using the CIS to help provide continuity in national long-term strategy from one
administration to the next
Some of these ideas are further discussed in Anticipatory Governance, a report about how to
integrate foresight in the U.S. White House and other executive branches of government; much
of its advice is relevant to all governments.
Since our long-range challenges are global in nature, they require global strategies and
systems to be successfully addressed. The United Nations has the UN Strategic Planning
Network, which connects UN agency strategy units. Singapore initiated an informal network of
national government future strategy units. Intelligence agencies had the Global Futures Forum.
The World Economic Forum connects government and business foresight. If these and other
such global systems created common platforms, foresight and decisionmaking could be
improved. The Global Futures Intelligence System (themp.org) is a beginning in that direction.
Futurists also should create more useful communications with policymakers. Alternative
scenarios should be shared with politicians and the public for feedback. They should show plausible
cause-and-effect links between a future condition and the current realities. Scenarios should
illustrate decision points where different strategies and policies can lead to different consequences.
Decisionmakers and staffs can explore many alterative futures and their potential
consequences quickly using alterative adaptive learning models such as cellular automata, rules-
or agent-based models, genetic algorithms, and neural networks. Their capability and accuracy
are growing rapidly, and databases describing individual behavior are becoming even more
massive. Analysis of such big databases may lead to the equivalent of social science laws that
can, when fully developed, be used to forecast group behavior. Using leading indicators instead
of lagging indicators can make analytics more useful to anticipate the need for decisions rather
than reacting to surprises. Because the speed of change is accelerating, an organization’s
strategic consciousness is becoming more important than static strategic plans. This allows for
management by understanding instead of just setting fixed objectives. It also can help an
organization act more like a complex anticipatory adaptive system and, where appropriate,
reinforce the principle of subsidiarity—decisions made by the smallest number of people
possible who are closest to the execution and impact of a decision.
Increasing numbers of arts, media, and entertainment professionals are bringing global long-
term perspectives to the public. Communications and advertising companies could create memes
to reinforce foresight. For example, From Reaction to Anticipation or simply Think Ahead.
Previous popular examples of memes include Think Globally, Act Locally and Small is Beautiful.

These slogans spread quickly among thought leaders of the world. Such memes can help the
public become more sensitive to long-term perspectives so that more future-oriented educated
publics could elect more future-oriented, globally minded leaders. Prizes could also be given to
recognize the best examples of global long-term decisionmaking.
Each of the 15 Global Challenges and the next set of UN Sustainable Development Goals
could be the basis for a TransInstitution (a coalition of self-selected governments, corporations,
NGOs, universities, and international organizations) that is willing to commit the resources and
talent to address a specific challenge or goal.
Challenge 5 will be addressed seriously when:
 Foresight functions are a routine part of most organizations (as accounting is today)
 The potential consequences, risks, and uncertainty of high-risk projects are routinely
considered before they are initiated
 50 countries compute national SOFIs (or something similar) to assess their future and
have standing Committees for the Future in national legislatures
 At least 50 countries require elected officials to be trained in decisionmaking
 National corporate law is modified to recognize TransInstitutional organizations.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The UN’s Global Pulse is applying Big Data to improve African
development decisionmaking. Foresightfordevelopment.org makes research documents, projects,
scenarios, futurists, and blogs available to support African futures research. China has become a
force in African long-range planning; it will be the second largest export destination for Africa.
Daily management of many African countries makes future global perspectives difficult; hence,
more-regional bodies like the African Union, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and the
African Development Bank are more likely to further futures work in Africa and should build on
10 years of work of UNDP/African Futures. Civil society is also becoming a bigger factor in
foresight, although it may need external pressure for freedom of the press, accountability, and
transparency of government. Corporations are also helping. For example, Microsoft is
implementing e-government systems to improve transparency and decisionmaking. If the brain
drain cannot be reversed, African diaspora should be connected to the development processes
back home through Internet tele-nation systems. Much of Africa continues to struggle with
keeping the cultural advantages of extended families, while making political and economic
decisions more objective.
Middle East and North Africa: The Egyptian Arabic Futures Research and Studies Association
is connecting futurists and think tanks in the region to share insights. The Arab
Spring/Renaissance revolutions are yet to open the decisionmaking processes, increasing
freedom of the press to better inform the public. Israel is planning a strategic program to
anticipate science/technology revolutions.

Asia and Oceania: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, ASEAN, and the Asian
Development Bank could be the key institutions to help improve long-term decisionmaking systems
in the region. Since China tends to make decisions in a longer time frame than others, its
increasing power and eventually that of India should lead to more global, long-term
decisionmaking as these nations interact with the rest of the world. Japan includes private-sector
companies in the Prime Minister’s long-term strategic planning unit. Asian societies tend to
focus personal decisions more on the good of the family than the good of the individual. Might
the individualistic Internet change this philosophy? Possible synergies among Asian spirituality
and collectivist culture with the Western more linear, continuous, and individualistic
decisionmaking systems could produce new decisionmaking philosophies. The Prime Minister's
Office of Singapore is developing an informal international network of government future
strategy units.
Europe: The International Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis is a major

annual gathering of European futurists who share best practices. The Euro crisis has kept
Europe's focus on itself, not its long-term role in the world; however, the recent EU elections and
EC reorganization have initiated long-term assessments. Other factors making Europeans review
global long-term perspectives include changing ethnic demographics, forecasts of Asian and
African migrations, the emergence of China, and public finances for social and health services
for an aging population. Tensions between the EU and its member governments and among
ethnic groups are making decisionmaking difficult.
The EU2020 strategy for a sustainable social market economy builds on the Lisbon strategy
for growth and jobs. The EU Committee of the Regions and the European Observation Network
for Territorial Development and Cohesion support foresight studies. The European Parliamentary
Technology Assessment is a network and database of 18 European parliaments integrating
futures into decisionmaking. The 7th Framework Programme of the EU expands foresight
support; the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies provides futures studies for EU
decisionmaking; the European Foresight Platform connects futurists; iKnow Project scans for
weak signals and wild cards; and the merger of the European Regional Foresight College with
The Millennium Project European Nodes has created Foresight Europe to improve European
futures research and instruction. The Netherlands constitution requires a 50-year horizon for land
use planning. Poland 2050 encourages more qualitative than quantitative approaches for long-
term analyses. State of the Future Indexes have been created for the first time in Poland, Hungary,
and Slovakia and have been updated in the Czech Republic. Europe is experiencing “reporting
fatigue” due to so many treaties and bureaucratic rules.
Russia is improving policy decisionmaking efficiency by coordination among stakeholders in
nanotechnology research among several Councils, Commissions at the Russian Parliament, the
government, and the Russian Academy of Science. Russian Ministries use Delphi and scenarios
for foresight, while corporations tend to use technology roadmaps. "Open Government" was

established in 2012 to improve interaction between the public and government by providing
public data on government spending, procurement, and investment.
Latin America: The Inter-American Dialogue has documented the growing interest in futures
research in the region (see Why and How Latin America Should Think About the Future), such
as Brazil 2022, Visión Nacional 2030 (Mexico), México 2042, Chile 2025, Surfeando Hacia el
Futuro: Chile en el Horizonte 2025, Latinoamérica 2030 (The Millennnium Project Latin
American Nodes), América Latina 2040 (CAF), Plan Perú 2021, Visión Colombia 2019,
Estrategia Nacional 2010/2025 (Ecuador), Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo 2030 (Dominican
Republic), Un Viaje de Transformación Hacia un País Mejor 2030 (Dominican Republic), and
Estrategia Nacional de Desarrollo 2030 (Dominican Republic). The Millennium Project’s Latin
American Nodes and others have formed RIBER (Red IBERoamericana de Prospectiva).
Venezuela has the Sembrar el Futuro prize for students' futures thinking, and Mexico initiated
the Global Millennium Prize for students' ideas for addressing global challenges. Since the
average age in Latin America is only 24, it is fundamental to incorporate the visions of the next
generation via social networks and apps.
To reduce political conflicts, the Mexican government got political parties to agree to the
“Mexican Pact” on basic long-term reforms prior to submitting legislation. Chile is pioneering e-
government systems that can be models for other countries in the region. For e-government to
increase transparency, reduce corruption, and improve decisions, Internet access beyond the
wealthiest 20% is necessary. The remaining 80% suffer from inefficient service, difficult access
locations, restricted operating hours, and nontransparent processes. Latin America has to
improve citizen participation and public education for political awareness.
North America: The Anticipatory Governance report explain how to create a foresight capacity
in the White House: Create a map of individuals and organizations with foresight and use it to
create a virtual organization at the White House (USA) and Langevin Block (Canada) for regular
input to the policy process. "Future considerations" should be added to standard reporting
requirements. Examples of successful global long-range activities should be promoted (see GFIS
Research section for Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in
Decisionmaking) along with cases where the lack of futures thinking proved costly. Global
perspectives in decisionmaking are emerging due to perpetual collaboration among different
institutions and nations that has become the norm in addressing the increasing complexity and
speed of global change. Global long-term perspectives continue to be evident in the climate
change policies of many local governments.
In 1997 IBM’s Deep Blue beat the world chess champion; in 2011 IBM’s Watson beat top
TV quiz show knowledge champions. What’s next? Apps on mobile phones for collective
intelligence? Blogs and self-organizing groups on the Internet are becoming de facto
decisionmakers in North America, with decisions made at the lowest level appropriate to the
problem. Approximately 20% of U.S. corporations use decision support systems to select criteria,

rate options, or show how issues have alternative business positions and how each is supported
or refuted by research. Intellipedia provides open source intelligence to improve decisionmaking.
The region’s dependence on computer-augmented decisionmaking—from e-government to tele-
business—creates new vulnerabilities to manipulation by organized crime, corruption, and
cyberterrorism, as discussed in Challenges 6 and 12.

Global Challenge 6. How can the global convergence of information and

communications technologies work for everyone?
The race is on to complete the global nervous system of civilization and make supercomputing
power and artificial intelligence (AI) available to everyone. Humanity, the built environment,
and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting
the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime.
Advances in IBM's Watson and TrueNorth, Google’s personal AI, Microsoft’s cloud
computing, Big Data analytics offered by many, and the Internet of Things will make the world
much smarter than today. Making sure everyone gets access to the Internet are powers such as
Google with its Loon project (high altitude communications balloons) and a team at internet.org
led by Facebook. Projects to understand the human brain under way in the EU, U.S., and China
are expected to improve human and machine intelligence. Google and Wikipedia are already
making the phrase "I don't know" obsolete.

As the cost of computers and smart phones continues to fall, and as capacity and ease of use
increases, even remote and less developed areas are beginning to participate in this emerging
globalization. Collaborative systems, social networks, and collective intelligences are self-
organizing into new forms of transnational democracies that address issues and opportunities.
New forms of civilization are beginning to emerge from this worldwide convergence of minds,
information, and technology. This is giving birth to unprecedented international conscience and
action, augmenting conventional techniques for global improvement. New systems are being
invented to address increasing complexity that has grown beyond hierarchical management.
Open source software, open content, and the Internet’s non-ownership model (no one owns the
Internet) may become a significant element in the next economic system. Versions of Windows
10 are intended to connect IoT from HoloLens augmented-reality goggles to imbedded systems
in cars and conference walls. Urban life is being transformed by augmented reality—information
about your surroundings communicated via your smart phone and eyeglasses.
It is reasonable to assume that the majority of the world will experience ubiquitous
computing and eventually spend much of its time in some form of technologically augmented
reality. Mobile phones have already become personal electronic companions, combining
computer, GPS, telephone, camera, projector, alarm clock, research assistant, music player,
flashlight, newspaper, translator, and TV. There are millions of smart phone applications listed in
online stores.
Web 2.0 is evolving from the present user-generated and participatory system into Web
3.0—a more intelligent partner that starts to mimic "understanding of" and the "ability to reason
over" its data and beyond. Imagine how combinations of statistical analysis, semantic technology,
IBM’s Watson, and Apple’s Siri personal assistant will augment our intelligence in the not-too-
distant future. Now imagine a bit further into the future with more advanced AI how we might
become augmented geniuses. In the meantime, massive knowledge repositories are being built,
such as Google's Knowledge Graph with 18 billion pieces of information on the "meaning" of
more than 570 million entities (in the initial 1% of its plan) and its Knowledge Vault, with 1.6
billion facts. Applications are being developed that negotiate with the user in conversational
natural language on how to solve a problem. The human-machine interface continues to improve
with voice and gesture interfaces, and computer-mediated elementary brain-to-brain
communications have been demonstrated. Even fibers are merging with conductive electronics,
making clothing a computer interface and radar is connecting hand motions to computer
responses, blurring the distinctions between 3D reality and augmented reality.
E-government systems that exist to some degree for the majority of the world allow citizens
to receive government information, provide feedback, and carry out needed transactions without
time-consuming and possibly corrupt human intermediaries. Sensors and mesh networks are
making cities smarter, able to diagnose and fix problems. Online training, supported by Web
access and virtual reality environments, is being used intensively in all fields of endeavor.
Telemedicine capabilities are uniting doctors and patients across continents. The ability to use
massive data sets and advanced simulations is changing the nature of scientific research and

dramatically accelerating the discovery of new knowledge and its sharing worldwide, as are
computational biology, computational chemistry, and computational physics.
Over 42% of humanity was using the Internet (over 3.1 billion users) at the beginning of
2015; there were 7.1 billion mobile subscriptions (of which 2.7 billion were smart phone
subscriptions); and uncountable billions of hardware devices were intercommunicating in the
Internet of Things (IoT), a vast real-time multinetwork supporting every facet of human
activity—from controlling a person's home heating via mobile phone to managing drip irrigation
and robotic factories and driverless cars. The IoT is expected to connect 75–80 billion items to
the Internet by 2020.
Microsoft expects 4.7 billion Internet users by 2025, of whom 3 billion would have
broadband connections. Ericsson estimates that by 2020, 90% of the world's population over the
age of 6 will have a mobile phone and that smart phone subscriptions will reach 6.1 billion. More
mobile-broadband subscriptions exist in the developing world than in industrial countries. The
mobile phone is transforming village life throughout the developing world.
Over 2.4 million children and teachers have One Laptop Per Child; Kindle e-book readers are
bringing global libraries to schools in Africa; the Inter-American Development Bank found that
children in Peru in 2012 using the OLPC gained about five months of cognitive development
over a 15-month period compared with those who did not use it. Internet bases with wireless
connections are being constructed in remote villages; cell phones with Internet access are being
designed for educational and business access by the lowest-income groups; and innovative
programs are being created to connect the poorest 2 billion people to the evolving global nervous
system of civilization.
One of the next “big things” could be the emergence of collective intelligences for issues,
businesses, and countries, forming new kinds of organizations able to address problems and
opportunities outside the bounds of conventional management. Collective intelligence can be
thought of as a continually emerging capability that we create by building synergies among
people, software (including sophisticated analysis tools), and information (including massive
"big data" banks) and that continually learns from feedback to produce just-in-time knowledge
for better decisions than any one of these elements acting alone. Billions of people with smart
phones, big data access and analytics, and ontological engineering—working across platforms,
languages, and cultural frameworks—create a unique global capacity. This capacity may be
augmented by personal assistant artificial brains that know “everything” about you.
Some problems to address

The explosive growth of Internet traffic, mainly from video streaming, has created a stress on
the Net’s capacities, requiring new approaches to keep up with bandwidth demand, while the
ubiquity of the Internet in society makes its reliability critically vital. It is a strategic long-range
issue whether bandwidth capacity growth will keep pace with demand in the future. It is hard to
imagine how the world can work for all without reliable tele-education, tele-medicine, and tele-
everything. People and businesses are entrusting their data and software to “cloud computing” on

distant Net-connected servers rather than their own computers, raising privacy and reliability
questions. The Amazon cloud data center’s outage and millions of online credit card users
having their data compromised are examples. Even though Wikipedia has become the world’s
encyclopedia (4.4 million articles, 287 languages), it still has to manually counter disinformation
campaigns occasionally fought through its pages. Security and privacy have become prominent
aspects of current developments in Web usage; multi-million-dollar fines have been levied
against careless data custodians. The legal complexities of accelerating changes in ICT are
forcing new jurisprudence.
Every week there are scores of new laws, regulations, and decisions around the world,
ranging from employees' information rights on computers attached to a corporate network to the
ownership, patenting, and copyrighting of software. There is no worldwide legal system to
handle complex technological and intellectual property disputes involving multiple parties in
different jurisdictions. Although there are no globally accepted policies or approach to replace
the password for identity authentication, progress has been made on two-factor authentication for
business, fingerprints for consumers, and proximity of other devices.
Governments are wrestling with how to control harmful content (and how to define
"harmful"). Vigorous regulatory debate continues on Net neutrality, the doctrine that technical
and economic factors for Net users should not be affected by considerations of equipment, type
of user (e.g., being a second-level communications provider), or communications content. The
International Telecommunication Union has not agreed on what are proper activities for
governments in security-oriented monitoring of communications, which has been brought
dramatically to world attention by the Edward Snowdon NSA disclosures.
Low-cost computers are replacing high-cost weapons as instruments of power in
asymmetrical cyberwarfare. Information security has to address a wide and diverse range of
"enemies," from the "geek in the back room" to criminal organizations and governments whose
sources are very difficult to trace. “Correspondence courses” on how to commit a variety of
cybercrimes are available on the Net for $50. Cyberspace is a new medium for disinformation
among competing commercial interests, ideological adversaries, governments, and extremists,
and it is a battleground between cybercriminals and law enforcement.
The full range of cybercrimes worldwide is estimated to cost $1 trillion annually. Akamai
Technologies found that during the third quarter of 2014, cyberattacks were originating in 201
countries and regions, 49% of them in China. Globally, cyberattacks were up 48% in 2014.
Fundamental rethinking will be required to ensure that people will be able to have reasonable
faith in information. We have to learn how to counter future forms of information warfare that
otherwise could lead to the distrust of all forms of information in cyberspace. Nevertheless, the
value of ICT for reducing the divisions among people outweighs its divisiveness.
Future artificial intelligence, robotics, and other ICT-related technologies could lead to long-
term structural unemployment worldwide. New work models like one-person-businesses that
seek markets around the world instead of non-existent local jobs will be increasingly needed.

However, earning a living in a future AI/robotic-dominated world may not be possible for many;
hence, new economic systems may have to be formulated.
Real-time streamed communications shorten the time it takes from situational awareness to
decisions. There may be a danger in losing the practice of thoughtful investigation and
contemplation, as exemplified by short attention spans and the near-disappearance of
investigative journalism. Multitasking with smart phones may cost the world economy billions
per year in lost productivity due to lack of concentration and interruptions. 3D and 4D printing
presages a whole new world of personal manufacturing, from simple chess pieces to eventually
body parts and, unfortunately, the fabrication of weapons.
Governments, locally and internationally, should create regulations and procedures that
anticipate future cybersecurity issues, not regulations based on current or previous cyber threats.
How well this is done, Microsoft argues, will determine the future of cyberspace.
Universal broadband access should become a national priority for developing countries, to
make it easier to use the Internet to connect developing-country professionals overseas with the
development processes back home, improve educational and business usage, and make e-
government and other forms of development more available. Challenge 6 will have been
addressed seriously when Internet access and basic tele-education are free and available
universally, when basic tele-medicine is commonplace everywhere, and when cybersecurity is
nearly universal.
Africa: Over 300 million Africans use the Internet, opening the door to tele-education, tele-medicine,
and eventually tele-everything else. Africans overseas will be able to help development back home
more easily—matching African brains overseas with the development process back home. Also,
the remittance market is adopting mobile money transfer; according to WorldRemit, half of the
world`s 261 mobile money service providers are in sub-Saharan Africa. Texting is the most
common use of mobile phones in Africa. About 15% of Africans have access to smart Internet-
connected phones. Mobile applications (money transfer, medical help, farm production information)
are revolutionizing life in Kenya and driving development in South Africa and Nigeria. There are
100 million active Facebook users on the continent, 80% of whom use mobiles. Madagascar
offers a mobile cloud phone service based on a login like e-mail so that users who do not need to
have their own phones can borrow someone else’s mobile phone to make a call. The new Main
One and West Africa fiber-optic cables are cutting cost and increasing speed. QuizMax is a free
mobile phone app for math and science education used by 100,000 children in South Africa.
Uganda received an African Development Bank award for its cell-based health management system.
Kenya’s Digital Villages Project integrates Internet access, business training, and microcredit.
FAO’s Africa Crop Calendar website provides information for 130 crops. Tight government
budgets and AIDS deaths among professionals make tele-education, tele-medicine, and e-government
increasingly important. Teachers and students in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda have received over

1,000 Kindles and 180,000 e-books, bringing massive e-libraries to schools. Google Translate is
now available for Chichewa, Hausa, Igbo, Malagasy, Sesotho, Somali, Yoruba, and Zulu.
Asia and Oceania: Asia has the largest share of the world’s Internet users (45%) but only 26%
penetration. In 2014 China had about 632 million Internet users (47% penetration) (up from 420
million in 2011), and in 2012 it had about 388 million Internet-connected mobile phones (up
from 280 million). There are stiff penalties there for "rumor spreading"—i.e., forwarding
nonofficial news items on the Net. The government has introduced the “Great Cannon,” a
technique for a DDOS attack on websites that are considered to be carrying anti-China material.
Phones are being smuggled into North Korea to post reports on conditions. Although South
Korea is rated by the UN as a leading e-ready country, its youth struggle with video game
addiction. The BBC offers educational courses via the newspapers, TV, and mobile phones for
learner-paced options in Bangladesh, with plans to improve the English language skills of 25
million Bangladeshis by 2017. Pakistan has a program to teach literacy and then guide students
to job openings. India is establishing e-government stations in rural villages. The rise of the
mobile phone in India has led to the development of caste-oriented social media communities.
Europe: Finland has made 1 Mbps broadband a legal right for all Finns and plans to increase
that to 100M bps by 2015. Estonia has declared Net access to be a human right. It is EU policy
that Internet access is a right that can be cut off for misuse. The EU’s Safer Internet Programme
is working in 26 European countries to counter child pornography, pedophilia, and digital
bullying. Montenegro is creating Tele-Montenegro to connect its citizens overseas with the
development process back home. The Czech Republic has passed a law requiring most
companies to have a website with relevant corporate information. In the Netherlands, virtually all
households have a computer (97%) and Iceland has the second highest proportion of households
with Internet access globally, at 96%. The European Union’s Digital Agenda aims at bringing
fast broadband (> 30 Mbit/s) to all and achieving 50% of households with superfast broadband
(> 100 Mbit/s) subscriptions by 2020. This will be accomplished through increased investments
in broadband (including EU financing as well as funding from national and private sources),
increased competition between broadband providers, and regulatory initiatives. Over 50% of
Russians use the Internet more often than once a week, and it is a major source of news free from
government control. On the other hand, Russia has banned profanity and obscenity from all
public media, including literature and news.
Latin America: About 40% of the region has Internet access (up from 34% in 2011). About 30
million of the region’s children are expected to have Internet access by 2015. Uruguay is the first
country to provide all primary students with their own Internet-connected laptop, followed by
Costa Rica. Fulfilling the promise of these tools will require more serious attention to training.
Peru's construction of a fiber optic backbone is planned to begin at the end of 2013 and to be
completed in 2016. Although fiber optic cable has been laid between Cuba and Venezuela,

connecting their governments, Cubans still have the slowest access in Latin America. Brazil and
Colombia have plans in place to bring affordable broadband to more households. The goal of
Brazil’s Programa Nacional de Banda Larga is to bring broadband access to 40 million of the
country’s households by 2014, in particular in rural areas, in cooperation with Brazilian
operators. Colombia’s Vive Digital aims to connect 50% of the country’s households to the
Internet by 2014.
North America: Some 73% of U.S. households have high-speed Internet access. Silicon Valley
continues as a world leader in innovative software due to company policies like Google’s, which
gives employees 20% free time to create anything they want. This “20-percent Time” is credited
with half of Google’s new products. The White House has proposed ConnectED, a project to connect
all schools and libraries in the U.S. to high-speed Internet within five years. The Digital Public
Library of America houses more than 5 million books, manuscripts, etc. from museums and libraries.
Cyber-attacks are increasingly viewed as the #1 threat to U.S. national security; the State Department
has warned that such an attack could trigger "self-defense." A private foundation gave free Wi-Fi
to New York City's Harlem to cover 95 city blocks by May 2014 for about 80,000 Harlem residents.
Figure 1.5 Internet penetration by Region
Source: Internetworldstats.com with Millennium Project compilation

Global Challenge 7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to

help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
The world economic agenda has become increasingly dominated by growing income and wealth
disparities, the fast shifts in geoeconomic powers, and the potential impact that automation and
other S&T applications will have on the job market and the living standards of the many. The
gap between industrial and developing economies is expected to keep diminishing, with the
emerging markets and developing countries continuing to grow considerably faster, given their
increasing labor force and expanding market potential, versus the industrial economies, which
are mostly replacement markets. As the economic power of the emerging markets grows, local
brands are also increasingly taking over foreign companies, further consolidating the economic
and political positions of their countries and unfolding new opportunities. Building on the
success of the Millennium Development Goals, the Sustainable Development Goals will further

engage the international community to reduce inequality within and among countries, with a
more comprehensive approach that includes social, economic, and environmental dimensions
along with increased accountability.
Poverty is decreasing around the world:
 By 2030, the global middle class is expected to grow by 66%—about 3 billion more
consumers with increased purchasing power and expectations.
 According to the World Bank, the share of people in the developing world living on less
than $1.25 a day fell from about 51% (1.93 billion people) in 1981 to 43% (1.91 billion
people) in 1990 and to 17% (some 1 billion people) in 2011.
 The number of people living on less than $2/day declined from 2.59 billion in 1981 to 2.2
billion in 2011; world population increased from 4.5 billion to over 6.7 billion over that
period.
 The ILO reports that the number of working poor has also been declining globally; from
the early 2000s to 2013, the number of workers living below $1.25/day declined from
more than 600 million to 375 million (12% of total employment), while the number of
workers living below $2/day declined from more than 1.1 billion to 839 million (27% of
total employment).
 ILO estimates that the rate of workers living in extreme poverty conditions will continue
to decrease to some 7% by 2020.
 According to UNDP’s Multidimensional Poverty Index, about 1.5 billion people—a third
of the population of the 91 countries covered by the index—live in multidimensional
poverty while another 800 million people are highly vulnerable to it and over 80% of the
world's population lack comprehensive social protection.
In the framework of the 17 SDGs to end all forms of poverty everywhere, the target is to
reduce the world's extreme poverty to below 9% by 2020 and to no more than 3% by 2030.
Going beyond reducing poverty, the SDGs require countries to adopt fiscal, wage, and social
protection policies to reduce inequality and have society at large benefit from increasing
prosperity.
Economic gap among countries is diminishing: World output passed $100 trillion (PPP) in
2013, reached almost $108 trillion in 2014, and is expected to be close to $150 trillion by the end
of 2020. The average annual growth rate has been 3.4% over the past three years, and the IMF
projects a steady economic growth of 3.5% in 2015, 3.8% in 2016, and 4% in 2020, while the
World Bank expects global economic growth at an average of about 3.3% through 2017.
 Developing countries are growing faster: although the rate of growth in emerging markets
and developing economies has slowed down from an average of 7.4% in 2010 to 4.5% in
2014, IMF forecasts continued growth at 4.3% in 2015, 4.7% in 2016, and 5.3% in 2020,
considerably higher than the rate of growth of industrial economies.
 Industrial economies have a slow recovery: 1.8% economic growth in 2014 is projected
to slowly pick up to 2.4% in 2015 and 2016, and 1.9% in 2020.

 The share of world GDP (PPP) of G-7 countries decreased from over 50% in 1990 to
some 33% in 2014 and is expected to drop further to 29% in 2020, while that of emerging
markets and developing economies increased from 36% in 1990 to 57% in 2014 and is
due to pass 60% in 2020.
 The GDP of the BRICs is expected to reach $36.43 trillion in 2015, surpassing that of the
G-7, which is projected to be some $35.86 trillion.
 In 2014, the BRICs established the New Development Bank headquartered in Shanghai,
with a regional center in Johannesburg, and a $100 billion Contingency Reserve
Agreement to provide liquidity protection to member countries in case of need.
 PwC projects that by 2050 the world's three biggest economic powers (PPP) will be
China, India, and the U.S., each of them with a GDP greater than the next three largest
economies (Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico) combined.
The per capita income gap will persist for the foreseeable future: Given the low
economic starting point and their high population, emerging market and developing economies
still have a long way to go to reduce the GDP per capita gap.
 GDP per capita of emerging market and developing economies grew at 3.5% in 2014 and
is expected to continue at 3.1% in 2015, 3.6% in 2016, and 4.2% in 2020. This means
that their GDP per capita will increase from $10,120 in 2014 to $13,841 in 2020.
 GDP per capita in industrial economies will grow considerably more slowly compared
with emerging market and developing economies, at 1.3% in 2014 and projected at 1.9%
for 2015 and 2016 and at 1.5% in 2020. This means that their average GDP per capita
(PPP) will grow from $44,588 in 2014 to $54,861 in 2020.
Inequality is increasing globally and within countries: Increasing concentration of wealth
is one of the main factors undermining the rich-poor gap reduction. The 2014 World Economic
Forum identified income disparity as the most likely global risk over the next decade, while in
2015, growing unemployment and underemployment were seen as being both likely and serious.
 UNDP indicates that over the past 20 years, within-country income inequality increased
by 9% in industrial countries and 11% in developing countries.
 About 75% of the households of developing countries are living in societies with higher
income inequality today than in the 1990s. UNDP notes that continuing current inequality
trends versus the "best-ever" inequality rate of each country could mean an extra 1 billion
people living below the $2 per day poverty line in 2030.
 Credit Suisse shows that by mid-2014 global wealth had reached $263.2 trillion, or some
$56,000 per adult; however, $115.9 trillion of it is owned by the top 0.7% of the world
population.
 Oxfam International remarks that if the 2010–14 trends continue, by 2016 the richest 1%
of people will have more than all the rest of the world together. In 2014, the wealth of 80
billionaires equaled the total wealth of the bottom 50%, compared with 388 billionaires in
2010; their combined wealth reached $1.9 trillion—an average of $24 billion each, while
the average wealth of the adults of the bottom 50% is barely $784.

 Across the OECD, the average income of the richest 10% of the population versus the
poorest 10% is almost 10:1 today, compared with 7:1 in the 1980s and 9:1 in the 2000s.
The ratio between wages and profit is increasingly and dangerously imbalanced, undermining
long-term economic prosperity. Although financial leaders are placing inequality and structural
reforms at the top of the world policy agenda, effective action has yet to be seen. Consequently,
the 1% versus 99% movement remains strong, is raising the consciousness of people everywhere,
and questions the integrity of financial leaders and the fairness of the current economic system,
calling for changes toward more sustainable prosperity and a real material commitment to
building a world with human dignity.
Agriculture: This is the second-largest source of employment in the world, with almost 35%
of the workforce (over 1 billion people worldwide). Its contribution to global GDP is only 6%,
compared with 31% for industry and 63% for the service sector. The Bali Package adopted by
the WTO in December 2013 is expected to address the “tariff quota,” land use programs, export
subsidies, and other measures that will improve developing countries' access to world markets
while also addressing their food security.
Unemployment: The economic slowdown and the prolonged "jobless recovery" that lowers
demand might continue to affect unemployment. The ILO reports that:
 In 2014, some 201 million people were unemployed worldwide, 30 million more than
before the beginning of the economic turmoil in 2008.
 If current trends continue, global unemployment might reach over 212 million by 2019.
 The most affected individuals are young people—those aged 15–24, with some 74.5
million looking for work in 2014.
 Although about 40 million net new jobs are expected to be created yearly over the next
five years, this does not meet the needs of an estimated 42.6 million people expected to
enter the labor market every year.
 About 75% of workers worldwide do not have a stable employment relationship.
 Some 48% of all employment is "vulnerable," with most of those people having limited
or no access to social security or a secure income.
 While the number of self-employed and new forms of work is increasing, the ILO found
that often these are vulnerable, with low or no income or social security (e.g., globally,
52% of employees are affiliated with a pension scheme compared with 16% of the self-
employed).
 About 21 million people are victims of forced labor, which generates and estimated $150
billion in illegal profits per year.
 The Global Slavery Index shows that more than 35.8 million people live in modern
slavery conditions worldwide.
Employment opportunities: While unemployment persists, many businesses lack qualified
workers. Hence, a better collaboration is needed among the private sector, civil society,
government agencies, and educational institutions to create the human capital with the
qualifications needed by today's and tomorrow's job markets.

The ILO notes that some estimates show that spending 1.2% of GDP on active labor market
policies could create an additional 3.9 million jobs in industrial economies and the EU region.
The more than 3 billion people connected to the Internet and more than 7 billion mobile
subscribers provide an environment with unprecedented economic opportunities—limitless
markets and possibilities for self-employment and SMEs to find markets rather than applying for
jobs.
New technologies and innovations are empowering people around the world, creating new
forms of business, raising productivity, and freeing up important time for increasing human
creativity and living standards. However, radical changes in the concept of work and profit
sharing are needed so that the entire society benefits from the potential introduced by automation
and AI. Some experts forecast that 50% of today's occupations in corporations might no longer
exist by 2025. This implies lifelong learning and creative intelligence to continuously adapt to
the fast-changing technologies as well as to the new socioeconomic structures of the evolving
sharing economy.
Trade is an important instrument to reduce the economic gap among countries:
Presently, a third of goods cross national borders, and over a third of financial investments are
international transactions. The WTO indicates that in 2014, world trade increased at 2.8%. The
value of world merchandise was $18.9 trillion in 2014, only 0.7% above the previous year, given
the falling price of some primary commodities; meantime, the value of commercial services
increased 4%, to $4.85 trillion.
 Exports from developing countries grew at 3.3%, versus 2.2% from industrial countries,
while the imports of developing countries grew at 2% compared with 3.2% for industrial
ones.
 The newly emerging–market middle class continues the development process through
increasing local demand, while also moving lower-value jobs to other developing
economies, thus spreading the prospects for global prosperity.
 Tax systems and financial regulations have not kept up with the complex growth of
financial instruments, requiring adjustments to ensure fairness.
 Many WTO agreements contain “special and differential treatment” provisions that favor
developing countries:
o The Aid for Trade initiative continues to help developing and least-developed
countries to effectively participate in the global trading system.
o The Enhanced Integrated Framework has been extended until 2022.
o The Trade Facilitation Agreement became operational in November 2014 to
ensure that developing and least-developed countries get the help they need to
develop their border procedures.
o Trade finance facilitation programs support over $20 billion of trade transactions
by SMEs in poor countries.

 However, the overall participation of the least developed countries in world exports
remains marginal, at 0.7%, with more than 70% of their merchandise exports dependent
on a few main products.
 The WTO cautiously estimates that world trade will grow at 3.3% in 2015 and at 4% in
2016.
 Some McKinsey scenarios show that by 2025, global flows could more than double or
even triple compared with today, reaching $54 trillion to $85 trillion, due to growing
participation of the emerging economies.
Financing development and reducing the rich-poor gap:
 Foreign direct investment
o According to UNCTAD, FDI decreased 8% in 2014 compared with 2013, to an
estimated $1.26 trillion. Given the continuous global financial fragility and
geopolitical turmoil, previous forecasts of $1.75 trillion for 2015 and $1.85
trillion for 2016 might be too optimistic.
o Since 2012, FDI flows to developing countries have been higher than those to
industrial countries. In 2014, FDI to developing countries rose another 3%, to
$704 billion, representing 56% of global FDI.
o China, with $128 billion, became the world's top FDI recipient.
o FDI to industrial countries decreased another 14%, to an estimated $511 billion.
o In 2014, developing Asia became the world's largest investor region.
 Investments from transnational corporation: in 2014, investment from TNCs from
developing countries increased 30% over the previous year, reaching some $500 billion,
while that from industrial-country TNCs at $792 billion was similar to the previous year.
 Official development assistance by the 28 DAC countries reached $135.2 billion (net) in
2014, a 66% increase in real terms compared with 2000. Five countries continue to exceed
the UN target of 0.7% ODA/GNI ratio.
o Some 66% of the ODA is bilateral, being directly channeled to partner countries.
o A DAC survey on donors’ plans for programmed aid to heavily aid-dependent
countries reveals that the declining trend in funding might continue until 2018,
although ODA makes up some two-thirds of external finance to least-developed
countries.
o The OECD is also increasing its efforts to curb economic and financial crime,
including illicit financial flows out of least-developed countries, which has a
major impact on development and financial sustainability.
o Better coordination among donor countries and programs is needed in order to
assure long-lasting progress; although there were about 50 fragile states that
depended on aid for stabilization between 2003 and 2012, 22% of all ODA to
fragile states went to Afghanistan and Iraq.

 South-South cooperation continues to increase, reaching 10–15% of total official aid in

2013, although in real terms it is estimated to be much higher, as the valuation of their
services tends to be lower than that of western contractors.
 According to the Ex-Im Bank, medium- to long-term financing to developing countries
from OECD members was $97.9 billion in 2013, a 22% decrease since 2012, while that
from China, Brazil, India, and Russia increased 10%, reaching $55.4 billion (out of which
China accounted for at least $45 billion).
 Remittances—which are about three times as big as ODA and an important source for
improving living standards in recipient countries—continue to grow steadily, given
increased mobility of workers around the world.
o The World Bank estimates that global remittance flows in 2014 reached $583
billion and are expected to grow to $586 billion in 2015, $610 billion in 2016, and
$636 billion in 2017, out of which $440 billion, $459 billion, and $479 billion
respectively flow to developing countries.
o The SDGs stipulate that by 2030 the transaction costs of migrant remittances be
reduced to less than 3% and remittance corridors with costs higher than 5% be
eliminated.
 Crowd-funding is estimated to have reached $5.1 billion in 2013, and the World Bank
estimates that crowd-funding investment in the developing world might be up to $96
billion by 2025, of which $50 billion would be in China.
Geoeconomic transformation: The landscape of geoeconomic power is changing rapidly
with the increasing influence of emerging economies, multinational enterprises, and regional and
local economic transformations.
 Half of the world's major economies are multinationals; these businesses play a crucial
role in poverty alleviation and building a sustainable economic system.
 New geopolitical economic alliances are changing: the G-20 is already G-35+, the Group
of 77 now includes more than 130 countries encompassing over 60% of the world’s
population, and the WTO has 161 members (accounting for 98% of world trade).
 Out of 603 regional trade agreement notifications, some 400 were in force at the end of
2014, with about half of them happening over the past decade.
 As regional trade agreements interlock, the scope and spectrum of multilateral trade
processes will continue to expand, increasing productivity and living standards in many
developing countries, mainly through outsourcing of manufacturing and service jobs to
low-wage high-tech economies.
 By 2025, some 66% of world economic growth is expected to be driven by the world’s
richest 600 cities (measured by absolute GDP). Out of the 25 top growth-contributing
cities, 21 will be in emerging economies (a significant number of them in China),
compared with today's 4 of the 25 wealthiest cities being located in the developing world.

 Unless better urban policies are introduced, over the next 20 years the number of city
dwellers might reach 5 billion (60% of the world’s population), with the majority in the
developing world.
 Approximately 1 billion people in 96 countries now belong to a cooperative, according to
the International Co-operative Alliance.
New measures of progress: New indicators that look beyond GDP are being developed,
which measure progress and prosperity from multiple aspects, including social and economic
inclusion, governance, and the environment. They help understand the interplay among various
factors and assist policymakers with setting priorities, reshaping economic policies, and
improving governance. Some of the most popular new indicators are Human Development Index,
the Better Life Index, the Sustainable Governance Indicators, and the State of the Future Index.
Richer countries used to send money, talent, and equipment to help poorer countries with
mixed results; pay-for-performance is now being explored.
Long-term strategic plan for equitable economic development: The world needs a long-
term strategic plan to develop a global partnership between rich and poor.
 Some long-needed economic reforms could provide new funding sources for harmonious
and sustainable development, reduce income inequality, and eventually create a basic
guaranteed income for everyone to have a decent living standard.
 The OECD calls for policies that ensure that wealthier individuals and multinational
firms pay their fair share of taxes.
 Some estimate that a tax on international financial transactions might generate up to $250
billion per year.
 Tax havens should be outlawed, as they are one of the most significant lost government
financing sources. Tax Justice Network estimates that tax havens harbored some $21–32
trillion at the end of 2010 (almost $10 trillion owned by just 100,000 people). A
conservative (no growth rate applied) projection to today's GDP would mean $30–40
trillion, or some 25% of world's GDP. Hence, outlawing tax havens could generate some
$10–15 trillion a year (considering a 30% tax) for social and economic programs.
 Global Financial Integrity estimates that illicit outflows from developing and emerging
economies totaled some $6.6 trillion between 2003 and 2012, at an average yearly growth
rate of 9.4% (over twice the global GDP growth). In 2012 (the latest year with available
data), the illegal capital outflows from these countries were estimated at $991.2 billion,
including tax evasion, corruption, and other illicit activities; that's almost eight times the
total ODA for that year.
 The Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative—a World Bank and UNODC partnership to identify
and return stolen assets—estimates that some $5 billion was recovered in 1995–2010.
 Some argue that an endowment to help finance the SDGs by the 1,826 billionaires that
have a net worth of $7.1 trillion, with a 5% payout ratio, would generate $355 billion a
year.

 A dividend on the wealth growth of the richest individuals—as an adjustment of income

to productivity growth—could be another important source to help address income and
development gaps.
The UN Global Compact has more than 12,000 participants, including over 8,000 businesses
in about 145 countries, combining business interests with global priorities to help poverty
alleviation, climate change mitigation, and women’s empowerment, while protecting children’s
and labor rights and fighting corruption. Conventional approaches to poverty reduction (technical
assistance and credit) that work in low- and middle-income stable countries do not work in
fragile countries, which need stability first. The post-2015 development agenda envisions
increased partnerships among all actors, mainly with the private sector, emphasizing the role and
accountability of large corporations concerning their social and environmental impact.
Ethical market economies require improved fair trade, increased economic freedom, a "level
playing field" guaranteed by an honest judicial system with adherence to the rule of law and by
governments that provide political stability, a chance to participate in local development
decisions, reduced corruption, insured property rights, business incentives to comply with social
and environmental goals, a healthy investment climate, and access to land, capital, and
information.
Challenge 7 will be addressed seriously when market-economy abuses and corruption by
companies and governments are intensively prosecuted and when the inequality gap—by all
definitions—declines in 8 out of 10 consecutive years.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa is the world's second-fastest growing region, with half
of today's 30 fastest-growing economies. If these trends continue, there could be 1 billion people
in the middle class by 2060, up from today's 313 million people (34% of the region’s population).
However, half of the current middle class is significantly dependent on the African diaspora;
remittances to the region are projected to reach $33 billion in 2015—more than Africa receives
from foreign aid—and continue to grow to $34 billion in 2016 and $36 billion in 2017, highly
facilitated by the adoption of mobile money transfer services.
Since the late 1990s, much of sub-Saharan Africa has experienced 4–6% economic growth,
and the IMF projects that the region will maintain a growth rate of 5% until 2020. The AfDB
projects that the economic growth is more broad-based, driven by increased continental trade and
domestic demand and by infrastructure development. Yet current per capita income levels
remain low due to population growth and high income disparities—100,000 people hold 80% of
the wealth, according to AfDB.
Although for the first time since 1981 less than half (48%) of sub-Saharan Africa's
population is living below $1.25/day, the number of the region's extremely poor doubled over
this period—from 205 million to 415 million in 2011, representing about 35% of the world's
extreme poor. The World Bank's optimistic forecast is that the extreme poverty rate will fall to

between 16% and 30% by 2030. Also, the average income of the extremely poor remains at
approximately half of the $1.25/day threshold, with the region having the countries with the
highest rates of intensity of deprivation of population living in multidimensional poverty and the
countries with the highest inequality in the world—Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, DRC,
Niger, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea.
Since one in every three births will be African by 2050, and almost one in three children
under the age of 18 will also be African, unless job creation and new forms of cyber self-
employment increase considerably, poverty and social instability could become rampant.
Dependency on commodities with fluctuating prices, lack of infrastructure, and rampant
corruption make economic growth and development challenging. FDI to Africa rose from $15
billion in 2002 to $42.5 billion in 2014. China is Africa's largest trading partner, financier of
infrastructure, and lender to its governments. Intra-African trade continues to account for only
10% of exports on the continent and is too weak to be an incentive for changing trade patterns.
This might change with the Continental Free Trade Area expected to be set in 2017. The trade
finance program introduced by the AfDB in 2013, able to support up to $1 billion in trade at any
time, has been expanded in 2015 to further help SMEs across the continent.
There is an increase in the promotion of small and micro-enterprises through policies and
funds, but township and local innovation systems are also needed to help reduce the rich-poor
gap. Urban farming in the Democratic Republic of Congo is converting many unemployed
people into small farmer entrepreneurs. Meantime, approximately 56.2 million hectares (5% of
Africa’s agricultural land) is subject to land-grabbing, further threatening the livelihoods of the
already poor.
For a steady development, the region should address in a systemic way its complex
challenges: poor governance, corruption, high birth rates, gender inequality, income and location
biases, weak infrastructure, high indirect costs, armed conflicts, environmental degradation and
climate change, poor health conditions, and lack of education.
Middle East and North Africa: The MENA region has extraordinary potential for development,
given its young workforce, oil-rich countries, solar energy rich potential, and economically
strategic position between booming Asia, fast-developing Africa, and industrial Europe.
However, chaotic geopolitics with years-long turmoil across the region, volatile oil prices, and
the slow pace of reforms impede a sustainable social and economic development. The drop in oil
price from $110 a barrel in June 2014 to less than $55 at the end of March 2015 had a huge
impact on the budget of the oil-exporting countries that are based on redistribution of oil
revenues rather then a sustainable economy. After the 2013 and 2014 economic slowdown (at
2.3% and 2.4 % growth, respectively), the IMF forecasts continued modest economic growth at
an estimated 2.7% in 2015, 3.7% in 2016, and some 4% in 2020.
In some Arab countries, 50–80% of the workforce is employed by the public sector.
Unemployment has been increasing over the past years, reaching 9.1% for men and over 21% for
women in 2014. Youth unemployment is over 27%, and the ILO projects that it might reach

28.6% in 2018. The Arab Labor Organization estimates that a 1% increase of unemployment rate
reduces GDP by 2.5%. Some 2.2 million people of the region live in modern slavery, with a
prevalence of over 1% in Qatar, Syria, UAE, and Iraq.
Remittance inflows to MENA are expected to grow from an estimated $53 billion in 2015 to
$55 billion in 2016 and $57 billion in 2017. Egypt accounts for some 40% of total remittance
inflows to the region.
The Arab Spring created momentum for building a more open economy and a democratic
society, but economic reforms are slow or non-existent across the region. Structural reforms and
a change in mentality to develop opportunities and the entrepreneurial spirit of young people and
to create a climate favorable to SMEs are imperative.
Israel's strong economic development continues, thanks to a favorable entrepreneurship
climate and great support for innovation.
Asia and Oceania: The historic speed and volume of Asia's economic growth has begun to slow,
but it remains a major factor in the geoeconomic transformation. Asia's middle class is expected
to grow from the current 500 million to 1.75 billion by 2020. The ADB projects that developing
Asia will maintain its GDP growth at 6.3% in 2015 and 2016, similar to 2014, while the WTO
expects Asia's exports to continue to outpace the rest of the world's, at rates of 5% in 2015 and
5.4% in 2016. In 2014, developing Asia continued to be the world's largest FDI recipient, with
$493 billion, and also became the world's largest investor region, with $440 billion.
The region has $4 trillion in fiscal revenues, $6 trillion in private savings, and the region’s
richest individuals had $35 trillion in financial assets in 2013.
China is now the world's largest economy (in PPP terms), but the IMF expects its economic
growth to slow down from 7.42% in 2014 (considerably slower than the average 9% since the
global financial crisis) to 6.8% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016 and 2020, while the EIU is expecting
China's economic growth to slow down to 5.9% in 2018. This may not keep pace with
employment needs and with the Chinese leader's goal to double its GDP and income per capita
for both urban and rural residents by 2020. China has more than 1 million millionaires and is
adding more than any other county. Although China brought more people out of extreme poverty
than any country in history, reducing its extreme poverty rate from 84% of population in 1981 to
12% today, some 80.8 million people are still living in multidimensional poverty and 19% of the
population is near multidimensional poverty.
India has about a third of the world's extremely poor, with some 32.5% of its population
living below the $1.25/day income poverty line and about 632 million people in
multidimensional poverty. However, India's middle class has grown to over 300 million people,
the unemployment rate is only about 5%—some 45 million people are unemployed—and the IT
sector, which employs about 2.2 million directly and 8 million indirectly, is expanding rapidly.
India's economic growth is expected to continue—increasing from 7.4% in 2014 to 7.8% in 2015
and 8.2% in 2016 as result of structural reforms.
The ILO notes that over 90% of workers in China and India are without permanent contracts.

India and China are the world's largest remittance receivers, at $70 billion and $64 billion,
respectively, in 2014. Remittances to East Asia and the Pacific region are projected to continue
to grow from an estimated $125 billion in 2015 to $130 billion in 2016 and $135 billion in 2017,
while those to South Asia are projected to reach $120 billion in 2015 and grow to $126 billion in
2016 and $132 billion in 2017. Remittances are extremely important to some countries such as
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh, where they exceeded 6% of GDP in 2013.
In Bangladesh, some 50% of the population—75.6 million people—are in multidimensional
poverty.
The 10 ASEAN economies are expected to experience a combined economic growth of 4.9%
in 2015 and 5.3% in 2016 with the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community. The
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with China and India the largest investors by far, is
expected to be operational by the end of 2015. China, Japan, and South Korea are negotiating a
Free Trade Agreement. This would be one of the biggest free trade areas, accounting for 70% of
Asia's and 20% of the world’s GDP and representing 35% ($5.4 trillion) of world trade. A larger
Asian economic integration with ASEAN, an Asian Monetary Union, and an Asian Union are
also in discussion. The search for lower labor costs and China's initial outsourcing of
manufacturing continues the intraregional restructuring.
The informal economy remains widespread across Asia, with rates in some countries of
South and Southeast Asia up to 90% of total employment. Structural financial reforms are
needed to support further development and investment. Increasing geopolitical tensions in the
Asian region—plus corruption, organized crime, pollution, growing rich-poor divides, and the
potentials for increasing shortages of water, energy, and food—make continued poverty
reduction difficult. Natural disasters and the effects of climate change are threatening the
development and the very existence of entire Pacific communities. Thus, there is speculation that
the Asian economy as a whole might not surpass a middle-income level in the foreseeable future.
Japan remains the most industrialized country in the region. Its economy, complicated by the
Fukushima nuclear disaster, is expected to improve after a 0.1% contraction in 2014, by 1% and
1.2% growth in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Europe: The EU is one of the richest regions in the world, with a GDP of €14 trillion (~$15.6
trillion), but concerns remain about eurozone countries' debt and direction of fiscal policy. The
economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2015 across the EU, but only 1.1% in the eurozone,
where unemployment is projected to remain at about 11%. Across the EU, unemployment rates
vary from around 27% in Greece and Spain to about 5% in Austria and Germany, but youth
unemployment is close to 50% in some countries. The EU estimates annual youth unemployment
costs €153 billion in lost wages and taxes; however, the program of guaranteed jobs within four
months after ending formal education has yet to be implemented by countries. The EC's €315
billion Investment Plan designed to provide economic stimulus could create over 2.1 million new
jobs by mid-2018, notes the ILO. However, since the 2008 economic turmoil, labor protection

has generally decreased. The divide between the creditor countries in the north and the debtor
nations in the south continues to widen.
The eurozone leaders adopted a set of short- and long-term measures to save the euro and
stimulate economic growth and are discussing several proposals, including a financial transaction
tax across the eurozone, more centralized supervision of banks, issuance of eurobonds, and
enacting a common minimum corporate tax to reduce losses to tax havens across the region. The
crisis also triggered negotiations over structural reforms, which might include a tighter political
integration with more solidarity and concessions on fiscal sovereignty. The Market in Financial
Instruments II reform is intended to regulate financial markets and commodity prices across the
EU, to prevent market distortions and abuse. The economic costs incurred by corruption in the
EU are estimated at €120 billion (~ $163.8 billion) a year (close to the total EU annual budget),
and some 40% of the companies participating in a Eurobarometer survey consider corruption,
nepotism, and patronage to be an impediment for doing business. This is expected to be
addressed by the comprehensive anti-corruption package adopted by the EC in 2011.
Collectively, the EU is the world's largest aid donor, for a total of €58.2 billion (~$65 billion)
in 2014 (including the European Investment Bank contribution), with five countries—Denmark,
Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, and the UK—exceeding the UN 0.7% ODA/GNI ratio. The EU's
11th European Development Fund that entered into force in 2015 totals €30.5 billion (~$34
billion), dedicated to financing development cooperation projects until 2020 in African,
Caribbean, and Pacific countries and in Overseas Countries and Territories to help eradicate
poverty and achieve the SDGs. With only 7% of the world’s population, the EU accounts for
around 20% of global trade and is the world's third largest investor region, with $286 billion in
2014. FDI inflows to the EU were $267 billion in 2014, a 13% increase over 2013.
Economic growth of the Commonwealth of Independent States (excluding Russia), after a
slow 1.9% in 2014 and an expected 0.4% in 2015, is projected to pick up to 3.2% in 2016 and
4.3% in 2020.
Russia is the world's largest country and has the fifth largest economy, but its recent
economic development has been severely affected by low commodity prices, falling foreign
investments, Western sanctions imposed in 2014, and restricted access to foreign loans and new
technology. After a 0.6% economic growth in 2014—the lowest since the recession—its GDP is
expected to contract by 3.8% in 2015 and by 1.1% in 2016, to eventually pick up to 1.5% growth
in 2020. Unemployment rates passed 5.5% in the first quarter of 2015. In February 2015, the
government allocated 2.3 trillion rubles to an anti-crisis plan. However, due to internal
constraints such as an unfavorable business environment mainly to SMEs, too much bureaucracy,
and high inflation, it is difficult to stimulate growth. In 2014, FDI from the Russian Federation
accounted for 92% of the total $55 billion flows from transition economies.
Latin America: Even though the region's middle class has grown 50% over the past decade, it
remains a highly unequal society, with the richest 10% receiving about 48% of total income
versus the poorest 10% that is only getting some 1.8%, and with continued social segregation

based on income, geographical area, or indigenous status. Nevertheless, during the 2000s
inequality declined considerably, including between rural and urban incomes. Yet a World
Economic Forum survey has found that, on average, 64% of Latin Americans think that their
country's economic system favors the wealthy, with the rates varying from 86% in Chile to 32%
in Venezuela. Chile and Mexico are the OECD countries with the highest income inequality. In
Brazil and Mexico, inequality is at the lowest level since the 1960s, when data records started.
Some 40% of social inequality reduction is due to lower wage inequality, the increasing number
of skilled workers, and increased minimum wages, while another 13–20% is due to more-
progressive government transfers. Decreasing inequality also accounts for 33–50% of the
poverty reduction in the region. The share of people living below $1.25/day dropped from
approximately 12% for the last two decades of the twentieth century to 6% now. However, the
continuous economic deceleration since 2011 is expected to increase unemployment from 6% in
2014 to 6.2% in 2015, according to ILO/ECLAC.
Remittances are an important source for poverty reduction in some countries. Inflows are
expected to grow from an estimated $66 billion in 2015 to $69 billion in 2016 and $71 billion in
2017. Mexico, with $25 billion received in 2014, was the largest recipient of the region and
fourth largest in the world.
Brazil reduced the number of people living in poverty from 41 million in 2002 to 15.7
million in 2013; the middle class increased by 42 million people since 2003 and income per
capita grew by 78%; the government pledges to continue creating an investment-friendly
economic environment and to use its rich natural resources to improve living standards sustainably.
Peru reduced its poverty rate from 59% in 2004 to 28% in 2012, but lack of opportunities
increases the number of young "backpackers" working in drug trafficking. The Community of
Latin American and Caribbean States pledged to continue the efforts for poverty eradication and
reduction of inequalities by increasing regional economic, social, and political integration.
After a decreasing rate of 1.3% in 2014 and an estimated 0.9% in 2015 (compared with 2.9%
in 2013), the IMF projects the region's economic growth to remain relatively slow, at 2% in 2016
and 3% in 2020. According to the OECD, less than 4% of state revenue is generated by personal
income taxes, compared with 27% in industrialized countries, while value-added tax is placing
an additional burden on poor customers. The “shadow economy” is estimated to be about 40%
relative to the formal one.
Fiscal and economic reforms are improving stability, although country and regional policies
increasingly focused on national interests and ethical behavior might affect future foreign investments.
After four years of consecutive growth, in 2014 FDI decreased by 19%, to a total $153 billion
(from $190 billion in 2013) mainly due to the fall in commodity prices. The EU is the main
development partner of the LAC region, its first investor, and its second trading partner, and their
relations continue to strengthen. China has become an increasingly important player in the region,
and it might become LAC's largest trading partner by 2017, as it continues major investments
and expansion of trade with different countries (including a proposed $20 billion to finance
infrastructure in the region) and its regular participation in regional forums, including CELAC.

North America: The United States is undergoing a slow but steady economic recovery, allowing
it to maintain the rank of leading world economy, which is likely to continue for the foreseeable
future. This is mostly due to an entrepreneurial spirit that encourages creative intelligence and
welcomes policy for immigrants with advanced technical degrees. GDP is expected to continue
growing, from 2.2% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014 to 3.2% in 2015. By April 2015, the U.S.
unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, a seven-year low, although it is over 12% for young people,
many of whom finished university with high debts and few jobs matching their qualifications.
Raising the minimum wage is long overdue. The first three years of economic recovery
(2009–12) benefited mostly the rich, with the average income of the top 1% increasing 36.8%
while that of the bottom 99% fell by 0.4%, continuing to widen the rich-poor gap. In 2011 and
2012, the official poverty rate was 15% (46.5 million people), 2.5% higher than in 2007, before
the recession. A World Economic Forum survey has found that North Americans see increasing
inequality as the most important challenge facing their region. From 1978 to 2013, for the top
350 U.S. firms the compensation of CEOs increased 937%, versus 10.2% growth for a typical
worker’s compensation, with the CEO-to-worker compensation ratio reaching 511-to-1 in 2013
(compared with 20-to-1 in 1965).
In the meantime, since 2000 the gap between GDP and employment growth has been
widening, increasing concerns over technology eliminating more jobs than it creates. One
projection estimates that automation might replace 45% of jobs in the U.S. over the next 20 years,
most of them at the middle tier. Increasing profits at the expense of lower wages is not
sustainable and undermines markets at home, as well as people's confidence in the system.
The U.S. is the world's top investor, with $337 billion in 2014, but its inflows dropped to $86
billion, putting it in third place after China and Hong Kong. Its trade deficit is over $500 billion,
some 70% of it from business with China. The U.S. continues to provide the largest single-
country ODA, a total of $32.73 billion in 2014.
Although controversial, potential trade agreements such as the Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership (with hundreds of amendments) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership might
open new global economic opportunities. Intra-NAFTA (Canada, Mexico, and U.S.) trade has
tripled over its 20 years of existence, helping continental economic integration.
The most important economic engines for Canada are small businesses, representing some
98% of all businesses and employing over 60% of the workforce. Altogether, SMEs employ
some 90% of the Canadian workforce. The Business Barometer Index shows a nationwide
relatively high small business confidence of 60.6 average, varying from 73.5 in British Columbia
to 45.7 in Alberta (where oil dependence affects the entire economy). However, some argue that
Canada's income gap is widening, with the richest 10% holding some 60% of financial assets,
more than the rest of Canadians combined, while the poorest 20% own less than 1% of the
wealth and have more debt than assets.
The livelihood of 400+ remote communities in the boreal and Arctic regions remains
problematic and unaddressed.

The merger of the Canadian International Development Agency with the Department of
Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Development indicates a new approach to aid, by also
including commercial and foreign-policy objectives in programs rather than exclusively
humanitarian ones.
Figure 1.6 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP)

(world, % of population)

Global Challenge 8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases
and immune microorganisms be reduced?
The health of humanity continues to improve; people are living longer—life expectancy at birth
increased globally from 67 years in 2010 to 71 years in 2014. Although WHO has verified more
than 1,100 epidemic events worldwide over the past five years, the incidence and mortality rates
of infectious diseases are actually falling due to medical advances and accessibility to medical
care. WHO reports that if current trends continue, the world will have met global targets for
turning around the epidemics of HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis. However, the mortality rates
from non-communicable diseases continue to rise—from 60% in 2000 to 68% in 2012. Other
health problems like antimicrobial resistance, malnutrition, and obesity continue to rise. Political
instability is a major health concern in many countries such as South Sudan, Syria, Mali, and the
Central African Republic, where rebuilding infrastructure and establishing health care will take
many years. There are over 42 million refugees or displaced persons in the world (down from 50
million in 2013), who have little access to health care. The prevalence of undernourished

children in fragile states is 39%, compared with 15% in the rest of the world. The spread of
disease in such areas, compounded by having fewer health workers, represents a dangerous trend,
witnessed during the Ebola epidemic.
According to UN data, the number of deaths in children under five declined from 12.7
million in 1990 to 6.3 million in 2013. This is a reduction from an estimated 90 deaths to 46
deaths per 1000 live births. Nevertheless, less than one third of all countries have achieved or are
on track to meet the MDG of reducing child mortality by two-thirds from 1990 levels by 2015.
At the current rate, this goal is not expected to be achieved until 2028. About 80% of child
mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. Rates have worsened in Syria, Iraq,
some sub-Saharan African countries, and some members of the former Soviet Union since 1990.
Maternal mortality fell 45% from 1990 to 2013 (from 380 to 210 deaths per 100,000 live births).
However, this is still far short of the MDG of a 75% reduction. Maternal mortality shows very
little decrease in the regions with the highest rates.
More than half the developing world at any given time is suffering from diseases associated
with unsafe water and poor sanitation. Although an additional 2.5 billion people have gained
access to improved drinking water since 1990, there are still over 700 million people without
such safe access today. Diarrhea causes over 1.8 million deaths per year (68% of these are
children under the age of five). About 25% of the world gained access to improved sanitation
between 1990 and 2012, but many—possibly over 40%—do not use the available facilities, and
WHO estimates that 2.5 billion people did not have access to basic sanitation in 2014 and 1.1
billion people practice open defecation, linked to 280,000 diarrheal deaths annually. It is
estimated that a third of these deaths could be prevented by simple hand-washing.
With longer life expectancies, rising health care costs, and a shrinking health workforce,
telemedicine and self-diagnosis via biochip sensors and online expert systems will be
increasingly necessary. Better trade security is also needed to prevent food- or animal-borne
diseases. Falling costs of gene sequencing and improved genomic understandings will make
personalized medicine possible for the public, at least for high- and middle-income
families. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, U.S. personalized medicine is a $286 billion
per year industry and growing 11% annually. IBM’s Watson is improving diagnostics; nano-
medicine could one day detect and treat disease at the genetic and molecular levels, making
treatments more precise; 3D bio-printing is opening a new field of tissue and organ replacements
from one’s own genetic material, and longevity research has significantly extended the lives of
lab animals.
Current high risks of epidemics that are predictable or a continuation of ongoing trends
include the following:
 Ebola does not have any FDA-approved vaccine or treatment. Without supportive care
and a healthy immune system, it is essentially fatal. The lack of knowledge about the
reservoir and the mode of entry of this virus puts people without access to healthcare at
high risk.

 Several cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been reported, including strains
H5N2, and H5N8. The global movement of avian flu, H5N2 mutant, has been seen for
the first time in the central flyway of the U.S., with millions of birds killed in Iowa and
Minnesota.
 Antimicrobial-resistant “superbugs” resistant against antibiotic classes fluoroquinolones
and carbapenems and third-generation cephalosporins
 Hospital-borne MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus)
 Influenza in its many forms, especially persisting and highly deadly avian flu (H5N1) in
Egypt (115 cases, 36 deaths reported from January to March 2015)
 Drug-resistant TB in Eastern Europe and the Middle East in HIV-positive patients
 Artemisinin-resistant malaria in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam
 Dengue, with a 30-fold increase in incidence over the past 50 years, is estimated to be the
cause of 390 million infections per year, particularly in the Asia-Pacific countries, where
1,800 million people are at risk of infection. The actual numbers of dengue cases are
underreported, and many cases are misclassified
Current high risks of epidemics that are emerging or re-emerging for infectious diseases and
other health threats include the following:
 Measles and tuberculosis are increasing in low-risk areas like the U.S. and the UK due to
migration and anti-vaccination attitudes.
 Polio-like enterovirus D68 was associated with rampant, severe respiratory illness in
children, muscle weakness, and paralysis, particularly in those with asthma. In the U.S.,
1,153 cases were identified with infection of the virus that has no vaccine or treatment.
 More than 800,000 cases of chikungunya have occurred in the Caribbean (6,600 in U.S.
travelers), and it continues to spread to 44 countries or territories with more than a
million cases. A spike in reported chikungunya cases pushed the outbreak total in the
Americas past the 1.5-million-cases mark as of June 5, 2015.
 As of February 2015, a total of 971 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with
coronoavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported to WHO, with at least 356 deaths. The
MERS, first appearing in Saudi Arabia in 2012, has continued to spread globally. The
sudden outbreak in South Korea, currently with 87 cases, emphasizes the need for
resilient infection control mechanisms.
 Cholera continues to be an issue in Haiti and a concern in Nepal. Haiti has shifted from
1,000 new cases per month to almost 1,000 per week. Following the 2010 earthquake,
736,000 Haitians were infected and 8,800 deaths occurred.
 Fast-progressing HIV in Cuba that is a combination of three subtypes of the virus
 Food-borne epidemics, most notably in China
 Lack of international controls for bio-research facilities that could contribute to
accidental or terrorist-induced epidemics

Current high risks of epidemics that were surprises include:

 Insecticide-resistant fleas that transmit plague from rats to humans led to 40 deaths and
119 cases of the age-old plague in Madagascar.
 A “super-bug” strain of typhoid bacterium is driving a hidden epidemic in Africa,
affecting 22 million people globally.
Prior to the Ebola disaster, WHO announced in 2013 that the International Health
Regulations— an international detection, warning, and rapid treatment system for global
epidemics—was not sufficiently in place to manage a major (H7N9) global epidemic. Because
pandemics represent national security risks, much of the best epidemic surveillance is carried out
by military and intelligence agencies, especially in poorer countries with insufficient health
infrastructure. Basic public health systems, which include treatment facilities, laboratories, and
surveillance systems, are fundamental to controlling outbreaks of infectious disease. The lack of
adequate health care systems allowed Ebola to spread faster and farther that it would have had
such systems been in place in countries such as Liberia. New sequencing technology will provide
the opportunity to create a global system of linked databases for identification and detailed
genetic characterization of all microorganisms. This would result in a reduction in
characterization time and hence strengthen surveillance of infectious diseases.
Antimicrobial resistance: Antibiotic resistance "is the single greatest challenge in infectious
diseases today,” says Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO’s Assistant Director-General for Health Security.
WHO published its first report on antimicrobial resistance in 2014, recognizing this as both a
long-range problem and one that needs immediate attention. Investment and development of new
antibiotics have not kept pace with current and potential antibiotic resistance around the world.
This could make major antibiotic classes (such as beta-lactams, carbapenems, fluoroquinolones,
and aminoglycosides) useless and lead to the reemergence of TB, malaria, and HIV. It could also
increase the likelihood of new “superbug” pandemics. The emergent research on the New Delhi
metallo-beta-lactamase-1 (NDM-1) gene and drug resistance found in the New Delhi water
system has alerted WHO investigators to a “potential nightmare” situation. NDM-1 is a gene
carried by some bacteria. If a bacterial strain carries the NDM-1 gene, it is resistant to nearly all
antibiotics, including carbapenem antibiotics—known as the antibiotics of last resort. WHO calls
on more countries to “step up” and develop national plans for antibiotic resistance, identifying
only 34 of 133 countries with basic national guidelines. While monitoring is key for controlling
antibiotic resistance, WHO reports that in many countries poor laboratory capacity, infrastructure,
and data management prevent effective surveillance.
Although antibiotic-resistant microbes and new “superbugs” are increasing, only four new
antibiotics have been approved by the FDA since 1998. Despite the launch of the 10 x 20
initiative by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, pushing for 10 new systemic antibiotics
by 2020, only 2 new systemic antibiotic drugs have been developed since the 2010 launch. The
highest-ranking pathogens (considered "urgent") are carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae,
Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Clostridium difficile. This antibiotic crisis reflects the combined
impact of overuse of antibiotics ("use it and lose it") and the failed market response. Major

pharmaceutical suppliers have largely abandoned the antibiotic development field owing to very
poor economic returns. However, the pipeline for new antibiotics is slow but not dry. Three new
anti-MRSA drugs were recently FDA- approved. In an effort to stem antibiotic-resistant diseases,
the FDA is moving to collect more information on antibiotics used in animals that are intended
for human consumption.
Health funding: Global health funding hit an all-time high of $31.3 billion in 2013, five
times greater than in 1990. Yet with 3.9% growth from 2012 to 2013, the year-over-year increase
falls short of the rapid rates seen over the previous decade. New pledges for development,
including health, would add $80 billion annually from 2015 onward. However, the dramatic
improvements in health and medical services over the past 20 years could be dangerously
reduced by continued slow economic growth, tight government budgets, and political changes.
As funding from many bilateral donors and development banks has declined, growth in funding
from private philanthropists and tailored funding institutions aims to counteract these cuts (e.g.,
the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Global Fund, and the Global Alliance for Vaccines
and Immunization). The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is a notable player, having donated
around $45 billion since it began. By embarking on various initiatives like vaccination
campaigns, rich-poor gap reduction strategies, and agricultural investments, they support high-
impact, multilevel organizations such as the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization,
WHO, and the World Food Programme. As one of the largest private donors to WHO, the
BMGF wields significant power on the global health landscape. Private donors are distorting
health care in low-resource settings as they set the agenda, often not in consultation with local
stakeholders. Their contributions often deprive other health issues of crucial resources, such as
local health care workers. In addition, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program will manage
a proposed €8 billion budget for biomedical research in the EU. The single most important
variable today to address the gap between the current and desired global health status is
continued and directed global health funding.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation compared development assistance funding
for different health issues to disease burden. For example, sub-Saharan African countries
received less than $60 of malaria funding for every year of healthy life lost to malaria between
2006 and 2010. In comparison, Latin America and the Caribbean received nearly $2,000 of
malaria funding per year of healthy life lost during this same period. For NCDs, the funding per
year of healthy life lost was much smaller, less than 50¢ in South Asia from 2006 to 2010 and
just over $2 in Latin America and the Caribbean. In contrast, high-income countries display
excess demand and overuse of medical facilities as medical technology advances and expands.
There is also a call for a Global Fund Mechanism focused on the “broken” research and
development sector to study diseases and antimicrobial resistance, following the Ebola epidemic.
This aims to prevent such outbreaks that are controlled primarily by monitoring and to revive
areas that suffer from chronic underinvestment from the pharmaceutical market. This trend could
also lead to a brighter focus on developing drugs for superbugs. The Global Alliance for

Vaccines Initiative initiated by the Gates Foundation, WHO, UNICEF, and the World Bank has
made significant funding progress with clear goals and new funding initiatives.
Infectious Diseases: Total mortality from infectious disease fell from 25% in 1998 to less
than 16% in 2010, even though much antibiotic resistance emerged during this period.
Approximately half of all deaths caused by infectious diseases each year can be attributed to just
three diseases: tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. Together, these diseases cause over 300
million illnesses and more than 5 million deaths each year. Infectious diseases (pneumonia,
diarrhea, malaria, and measles) cause 67% of all preventable deaths among children under 5
years old. This is linked with undernutrition, which contributes to 50% of childhood mortality.
Undernutrition results in higher susceptibility to these diseases, and children with infectious
diseases are at higher risk of becoming undernourished. Poverty, political unrest, urbanization,
travel, immigration, trade, increased encroachment on animal territories, and concentrated
livestock production facilitate the animal-to-human transmission of infectious organisms in less
time than ever before and could trigger new pandemics. About half of the world’s population is
at direct contact risk of several endemic diseases. On average, a significant new infectious
disease has been discovered each year over the past 40 years. Old diseases have reappeared, such
as cholera, chikungunya, yellow fever, plague, dengue fever, meningitis, hemorrhagic fever, and
diphtheria. In the last six years, more than 1,100 epidemics have been verified. About 75% of
emerging pathogens are zoonotic (they can be transmitted to humans from other species through
a variety of infection routes), which could increase as more humans convert nature to human
habitat. According to a new estimate, there are at least 320,000 viruses in mammals alone, the
vast majority of them awaiting discovery. Scientists state that collecting data on pathogens that
may lurk in wildlife before they are passed on to humans could help officials detect and stem
future outbreaks. Early studies of viral incidence in animals are being tracked in Africa, China,
and South Asia to anticipate epidemics before they reach humans.
Tuberculosis: More people have TB today than ever before, even though its incidence rate
and death rate among HIV-negative cases has been falling since 2006 and although DOTS
treatment is 85% successful. An estimated 13.7 million people are infected with active,
infectious TB worldwide, while almost 2 billion (nearly one-third of the world's population) are
infected with the TB bacillus (includes latent infection). In addition, new drug-resistant strains of
TB have emerged that are difficult to treat successfully. The extremely resistant drug strain
(XDR-TB) is fatal in a large proportion of cases. Current rapid TB tests and a potential
susceptibility test could make a significant difference. The TB vaccination BCG is not
recommended in all situations; 11 new vaccines to prevent TB are moving through development
stages.
The Millennium Development Goal to halt and reverse the TB epidemic by 2015 has already
been achieved. However, drug-resistant strains are increasingly prevalent, and drugs that are
used to treat this variant are not very effective. Some 5% of TB cases were estimated to have had
MDR-TB in 2013 (3.5% of new and 20.5% of previously treated TB cases). Drug resistance
surveillance data show that an estimated 480,000 people developed MDR-TB in 2013 and that

210,000 people died. Extensively drug-resistant TB has been reported in over 100 countries. On
average, an estimated 9% of people with MDR-TB have XDR-TB.
Neglected tropical diseases are chronic diseases that collectively affect 10 times as many
people as HIV/AIDS does. The 17 NTDs that are parasitic and bacterial infections are the most
common afflictions of the world’s poorest billion; examples are schistosomiasis, dengue fever,
and onchocerciasis. They blind, disable, disfigure, and stigmatize their victims, trapping them in
a cycle of poverty and disease. Many of these are waterborne diseases and highly preventable.
High-density population growth and slow progress in sanitation in poorer areas keep these
diseases active. There are seven NTDs with mass-drug administration potential.
WHO reports that 711 million people were treated in 2010 for at least one of the four
neglected tropical diseases (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, and soil-
transmitted helminthiasis). WHO projects that treatment for schistosomiasis (bilharzia) will
reach 235 million people over the next four years, and some observers are talking about
eradication. In 2013, only 6,314 cases of human African trypanosomiasis were reported,
representing the lowest levels of recorded cases in 50 years. Dracunculiasis reached historically
low levels, with 126 cases by 2014. Eradication and elimination of these diseases are targeted for
2020. WHO anticipates global elimination of this preventable disease by 2020. It also plans to
eradicate yaws by 2020. Neglected tropical disease have received more funding than ever in the
past decade, with 700 million people treated with one or more drugs for these diseases in 2014.
HIV/AIDS: The world has begun to reverse the spread of HIV, with new infections reported
in 2013 of 2.1 million people, down from 3.4 million in 2001. It is important to underscore that
almost 60% of new HIV infections among young people in 2013 occurred among girls and
young women. The revised target of achieving universal access to treatment for HIV will be
more challenging as WHO’s recommendations have resulted in much higher numbers of people
needing treatment. At current trends, the world will exceed the target of placing 15 million
people in low- and middle-income countries on antiretroviral therapy in 2015. This trend
suggests that we are on track to meet MDG 6B.
WHO has a new set of goals for 2020: 90% of all people living with HIV will know their
HIV status; 90% of all people with diagnosed HIV infection will receive sustained ART; and
90% of all people receiving ART will have viral suppression. Treatment and diagnosis for
HIV/AIDS are becoming increasingly affordable with the introduction of generic medicines and
improved technology. The cost of first-line regimen antiretroviral medicine per person in low-
income countries has dropped to $115 per year and is free in some areas. However, UNAIDS
reports that 19 million of the 35 million people living with HIV are not aware that they have the
virus.
UNAIDS estimated that nearly 14 million people worldwide were receiving ART by the end
of 2014. HIV incidence has fallen by more than 50% in 26 countries, but infection rates are still
increasing in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. AIDS-related deaths dropped
from 2.3 million in 2005 to 1.6 million in 2012. A recent UNAIDS report reveals that 15
countries accounted for more than 75% of the 2.1 million new HIV infections in 2013. In sub-

Saharan Africa, just three countries—Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda—accounted for 48% of
all new HIV infections. However, it appears that entire countries are being left behind from
interventions and will be forced to face the triple threat of high HIV burden, low treatment
coverage, and no or little decline in new HIV infections. Examples of these include the Central
African Republic, Indonesia, and South Sudan.
Truvada (antiretroviral daily pill) was the first drug approved in the U.S. to reduce the risk of
HIV infection in uninfected individuals. The FDA approved it for prophylactic use on July 16,
2012. Truvada is still new; hence it has little impact so far compared with ART. Other medical
advanced research has shown that some small viruses attack large viruses, offering the possibility
of a new route to disease cures. Another advance involves gene therapy that causes a mutation in
the CCR5 receptor, which prevents binding of the virus to host immune cells and the APOBCE3
gene family, which produces antiretroviral enzymes. Researchers are also studying several
different injectable drugs that can suppress the HIV virus for months at a time, or a monthly
injectable as opposed to a daily pill. Vaginal rings are also being tested that release antiretroviral
drugs slowly, over time, to protect women from contracting HIV. Broadly neutralizing
antibodies are another new technique of treatment, using proteins that have been shown to
neutralize multiple strains of HIV.
Malaria: Despite the recent alarming finding of artemisinin-resistant malaria in Southeast
Asia, malaria mortality rates have fallen by more than 25% since 2000 and by 33% in the WHO
African Region. Furthermore, malaria deaths among children have fallen 51% since 2000,
according to WHO. Between 2000 and 2013, an expansion of malaria interventions helped to
reduce malaria incidence by 30% globally and by 34% in Africa. However, the statistics still
look grim. There were an estimated 198 million cases of malaria worldwide (range 124–283
million) in 2013 and an estimated 584,000 deaths (range 367,000–755,000). About 90% of all
malaria deaths occur in Africa. In 2014, an estimated 214 million long-lasting insecticidal nets
were delivered to malaria-endemic countries in Africa, bringing the total number of LLINs
delivered to that region since 2012 to 427 million. International and domestic funding for malaria
control and elimination totaled $2.7 billion in 2013. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has
been a major contributor toward the efforts against malaria by investing and supporting strategic
interventions. Although funding for malaria represents a threefold increase since 2005, it is still
significantly below the $5.1 billion that is required to achieve global targets for malaria control
and elimination. The MDG goal of halting and reversing malaria incidence has been met, and
Malaria Vaccine Initiative's malaria vaccine candidate (RTS,S) has completed phase III clinical
trials. Results demonstrated a 36% reduction in children cases of clinical malaria despite a low
perceived impact; it has the potential to protect children in malaria-endemic areas.
In recent years, parasite resistance to artemisinin has been detected in five countries. In areas
along the Cambodia–Thailand border, P. falciparum has become resistant to most available
antimalarial medicines, and multidrug resistance is a major concern. Between 2010 and 2013,
some 53 countries globally have reported mosquito resistance to at least one insecticide. Of these,
41 have reported resistance to two or more insecticide classes.

Polio: As a global effort, we are running the final mile to eliminating this disease. However,
polio vaccination will need to continue after eradication. Viral shed post-vaccination has the
potential to revert back to wild type in the environment, threatening new outbreaks in several
countries. However, only three countries (Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan) remained polio-
endemic in 2013. The Eradication of Polio by 2018 campaign has financial commitments of $5.5
billion (an additional $1.5 billion will be needed) to vaccinate 1 billion children. The urgency is
linked to the tremendous advances made in 2012 and the narrow window of opportunity to seize
on that progress and stop all poliovirus transmission before polio-free countries become re-
infected. There have been multiple reports of attacks on polio workers from abroad in the three
countries that polio is still considered endemic. Hence, effectively delivering vaccines requires
addressing the political situation in these countries.
Hepatitis: Viral hepatitis (hepatitis A, B, C, and E) is a leading cause of disease burden in
terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs), being attributed to acute infection, cirrhosis, and
hepatocellular carcinoma. With approximately 170 million infected by HCV alone, the increased
focus has resulted in conversations of coordinating a global response. A significant number of
those who are chronically infected will develop liver cirrhosis or liver cancer. Some 350,000–
500,000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver diseases. Awareness of this disease,
however, is very low. Up to 75% of those infected are unaware they have this disease. The global
mortality largely rests in Southeast Asia, with the possibility of considering it a disease of
emerging markets. The delay to obtain treatment, not the lack of treatment, causes high mortality.
WHO’s resolution calls for better testing and global campaign for safe injections. There is
sufficient disease for pharmaceutical innovation and provision. However, despite a HCV vaccine
in development, there has been limited surveillance data available for HCV. HCV treatment,
although curative, has the potential to be very expensive. With the pricing determined by free-
market demand, sofosbuvir treatment has the potential to be inaccessible to high-income
countries until generics reach the market. In contrast, HBV is preventable but once infected
requires lifelong treatment.
Noncommunicable diseases/chronic diseases: Noncommunicable diseases are increasingly
threatening population health and pressuring health systems worldwide. As NCDs claim 38
million people annually, almost three-quarters of the deaths occur in low- and middle-income
countries. Considered an emerging global crisis arising from the epidemiological and nutritional
transitions, a range of these diseases have become easier to control and manage because of
healthy public policies and medical advances. Chronic diseases, led by heart conditions and
stroke, have significantly overtaken infections as the leading causes of death and disability
except in sub-Saharan Africa. Cardiovascular diseases account for most deaths from
noncommunicable diseases, with 17.5 million people annually, followed by cancers (8.2 million),
respiratory diseases (4 million), and diabetes (1.5 million). The recent WHO strategy, 25x25,
aims for 25% reduction in preventable mortality from significant NCDs (cardiovascular disease,
diabetes, cancer and chronic respiratory disease) that account for 54% of NCD DALYs.
However, a global response against NCDs narrowly constructed around traditional preventable

risk factors (e.g., smoking, cholesterol, high blood pressure, alcohol abuse) is insufficient. With
over 6 million annual deaths attributed to air pollution, nontraditional risk factors (e.g., climate
change, infections, etc.) need to be included in a broader preventive and mitigation strategy.
Chronic risk factors and noninfectious diseases have the potential to perpetuate infectious
diseases. For example, diabetes affects around one-third of the world’s total population. Diabetes
mellitus is a fast-emerging, still-little-known risk factor for TB—and the burden of diabetes is
moving from industrial to developing countries.
The global economic burden of NCDs, estimated to be $6.3 trillion in 2010, is projected to
reach $13 trillion by 2030. Few low- and middle-income countries have the financial and
structural capacity to respond to these burdens. Their health systems need to support NCDs and
multi-morbidities and recognize the potential for new co-morbidity patterns with infectious
diseases. Studies have shown that primary-level health services are more cost-effective and
efficient, resulting in better health outcomes than complex and specialized health systems.
Following the MDGs, many health systems are currently invested in vertical structures targeting
individual conditions. Weak and fragmented organization will be hindered if the NCD agenda
proceeds without acknowledging a need for stronger health systems, further compounding the
burden of NCDs.
Immunization: The 68th World Health Assembly has called for a Global Vaccine Action
Plan to “unleash vaccines’ vast future potential—because their impressive history is nothing in
comparison to what they could yet achieve.” The framework is to prevent millions of deaths by
2020 by ensuring equitable access to vaccinations for people of all communities. The overall
goal is to eradicate polio globally, eliminate maternal and neonatal tetanus globally, and
eliminate (guided by regional targets) measles and rubella. The most promising licensure is for
the dengue virus vaccine. Considering its heavy global burden, its 50% efficacy has potential in
denting reducing its consequences.
Although an estimated 83% of all infants in 2011 have adequate DPT vaccinations
(diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis) at 20¢ per dose in developing countries, over 22 million
infants remain unimmunized in the world each year. The number of measles deaths fell by 71%
between 2000 and 2011. Increased routine vaccination for measles, bacterial meningitis, tetanus,
diphtheria, polio, pertussis, yellow fever, and rotavirus greatly improved with better coordination,
discrete budget sources, and additional outside funding from groups like the Global Alliance for
Vaccines and Immunization.
Despite these successes, improving access to current and long-standing vaccines remains
crucial in preventing mortality. Around 20% of children in developing countries do not receive
the complete immunizations scheduled for the first year of their life. If all countries immunize
90% of children under five years of age with 14 vaccines recommended by the Global
Immunization Vision and Strategy, immunization could prevent an additional 2 million deaths a
year in this age group, WHO estimates.

Bioterrorism: To counter bioterrorism, R&D has increased for improved bio-sensors and
general vaccines able to boost the immune system to contain any deadly infection. Such vaccines
could potentially be placed around the world like fire extinguishers. New problems may also
come from unregulated synthetic biology laboratories of the future. See Global Challenge 10 for
more on biology-related security issues.
Strategy: The best ways to address epidemic diseases remain early detection, accurate
reporting, prompt isolation, and transparent information and communications infrastructure, with
increased investment in clean drinking water, sanitation, and hand-washing, along with
optimizing the use of current health technologies (drugs, devices, biological products, medical
and surgical procedures, support systems, and organizational systems). Climate change and other
global environmental changes are resulting in changes in the magnitude and pattern of risks,
underlining the need for increased investment in monitoring and surveillance.
WHO’s eHealth systems, smart phone technology, international health regulations,
immunization programs, and the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network are other elements
addressing this Global Challenge. WHO’s Global Health Observatory and Global Burden of
Disease project are increasingly making information clearer for setting policy and priorities.
Alongside the other BRICs, China has pushed to redefine mechanisms imported on the global
health landscape and significantly contributing to achieving several health-related MDGs. UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated: "The countries of the South are building new models of
development cooperation that emphasize mutual benefit and solidarity as well as cost-
effectiveness. This is helping to provide people with improved access to affordable medicines,
technology, and credit."
With the conclusion of the MDGs this year, the focus has shifted to the 17 new Sustainable
Development Goals within a post-2015 agenda. Although all goals address the social and
structural determinants of health, Goal 3 stands as the only explicit health-related goal, with a
view to ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all at all ages. This relates to the
passage of a UN General Assembly resolution on universal health coverage in December 2012.
Universal health coverage is still out of reach for many countries. Highly fragmented health
systems have the potential to undermine previous development efforts and leave people's health
vulnerable to external shocks (e.g. conflict, natural disaster etc.). The resolution urged member
states to develop health systems that avoid substantial direct payments at the point of delivery
and to implement mechanisms for pooling risks to avoid catastrophic health care spending and
impoverishment. Furthermore, WHO's World Health Report 2013 states that universal health
coverage cannot be achieved without the evidence provided by scientific research.
The WHO Regional Office for Europe has published Health 2020 (its new health policy
strategy) and an accompanying European Action Plan. Both documents have been endorsed by
the 53 member states, giving WHO a mandate to ensure progress and hold member states
accountable. Through an extensive process of consultation among the countries, overarching
targets have been established in the three foci of Health 2020: reducing the burden of disease and
risk factors, improving health and well-being, and improving governance and systems for health.

Challenge 8 will be seriously addressed when life expectancy grows to 75 years of healthy
life, with little disparity among and within nations; when resilient global health funding is
assured; when effective global disease detection, surveillance, and therapy systems are in place;
and when vaccines and medicines for new diseases are developed in a timely fashion.
Africa: With 12% of the world’s population, Africa has 25% of the world’s disease burden, 3%
of its health workers, and 1% of its health expenditures. Africa is short 1.5 million health
workers, and more nurses leave South Africa than are trained there annually.
The Ebola pandemic (2014–15) highlighted weaknesses in African and global health systems,
regulations, and surveillance and monitoring. The Ebola epidemic overshadowed other persistent
health issues in this region because of its extremely infectious nature and the high mortality rate.
This deadly disease claimed 11,095 lives out of 26,858 cases across the world (May 2015). HIV
incidence has fallen by 26% overall in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa due to ART, although
the region still accounted for the majority of all people living with HIV in 2012. Nearly one in
every 20 African adults (4.9%) is living with HIV. Patients on ART increased to 64% by the end
of 2012, with an additional 1.3 million people added in the last year and with “universal access”
(greater than 80%) in Botswana, Namibia, and Rwanda. UNICEF estimates there are about 1.6
million AIDS orphans in South Africa and that 16% of children in Zimbabwe and 12% in
Botswana are AIDS orphans. Clinics in northern Malawi provided free antiretroviral drugs,
which reduced adult AIDS deaths by 57% in three years. AIDS deaths fell 40% in urban Addis
Ababa in a similar two-year program of free antiretroviral drugs. PEPFAR (a U.S. government
program) is funding 105 medical schools in the sub-Saharan region to encourage graduates to
stay in Africa and is funding laboratories across the continent. Progress in reducing TB incidence
and prevalence rates has been slow due to high HIV/AIDS prevalence rates. Nevertheless TB-
related deaths are on the decline, falling by 23% between 1990 and 2011.
The incidence of and death rates from malaria fell by an average of 31% and 49%,
respectively, in Southern, East, and Central and West Africa as a group. Nevertheless, 90% of
the estimated 627,000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2012 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, and
77% were among children below the age of five. The number of polio cases fell 15% from 2013
to 2014. WHO received reports of 125 cases from 54 villages in 2014: South Sudan (70), Mali
(40), Chad (13), and Ethiopia (2).
In terms of NTDs, mapping of schistosomiasis has improved: 25 countries were entirely
mapped (61%) in 2014 and 15 countries partially mapped (37%). The reported number of people
receiving preventive chemotherapy for schistosomiasis increased by nearly 25% from 2011 to
27.5 million in 2013, but the coverage is far lower than WHO’s target of 75% of school-age
children. Elimination projects have been started in three countries (Burundi, Rwanda, and United
Republic of Tanzania (Zanzibar)), with integrated approaches combining all the necessary
strategies, including health education, improved sanitation, water supply, and snail control. In

2012, some 45% of the population in Southern, East, Central, and West Africa used either shared
or unimproved sanitation facilities, and 25% practice open defecation.
While average life expectancy for both sexes remains less than 55 years in nine sub-Saharan
Africa, low- income countries have made substantial advances (an increase of 9 years of average
life expectancy between 1990 and 2012 —from 51.2 to 60.2 years for men and 54.0 to 63.1 years
for women). However, progress in halving the proportion of undernourished people has been
slow in all developing regions, with an average reduction of 22.3% for Africa between 1990 and
2013. Africa has reduced its maternal mortality ratio by 47% between 1990 and 2013. Despite
these achievements, meeting MDG 5 remains unlikely. Limited access to contraceptives, skilled
birth attendants, and antenatal care as well as high adolescent birth rates have contributed to the
high maternal mortality ratio in Africa.
Asia and Oceania: Asia and the Pacific regions have made the most progress in health in the last
two decades. Nevertheless, they remain an epicenter of emerging epidemics and there are
concerns about data collection and assessment in many countries. Most statistics are based on
only 30 countries in the region. Infant mortality rates in Asia and the Pacific fell by 52% during
the period 1990–2012, from 6.4% to 3.1%. However, this is not close to the MDG goals for child
health, although dramatic reductions have taken place in the incidence of postpartum maternal
death. The maternal mortality rate (the number of women who die during pregnancy and
childbirth per 100,000 live births) fell in the region by 61%, a rate of reduction faster than the
global average of 46%. The number of people living with AIDS has gradually increased, with the
highest prevalence in Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar. The reported number of people in
China with HIV/AIDS fell from 780,000 at the beginning of 2012 to 437,000 at the beginning of
2014. In some countries, the incidence rate of AIDS has been reduced by more than half since
2001, including India (a 57% reduction) and Papua New Guinea (a 79% reduction). Treatment
coverage varies substantially across the region. The percentage of adults and children living with
HIV and receiving ART ranges from 5% in Afghanistan to 67% in Cambodia.
Despite impressive reductions, the prevalence and incidence of tuberculosis in the Asia-
Pacific region in 2012 remained higher than in all other regions except Africa. The rate of TB
prevalence in low-income countries exceeded five times the rate in high-income countries, while
the rate of TB incidence remained more than four times higher in low-income countries than in
high-income ones. Region-wide, the incidence of malaria increased from 1990, peaking in 2002
and declining since, although the rate in 2012 remained 9% higher than in 1990. Pacific island
developing countries had by far the highest malaria rates among subregions in Asia and the
Pacific, with rates more than 40 times higher than the regional average. India, Indonesia,
Myanmar, Pakistan, and Papua New Guinea account for 89% of all malaria cases in the region.
Nevertheless, only 2% of deaths from malaria globally occurred inside the Asia-Pacific region.
Japan and Singapore have the longest life expectancies in Asia: in Japan the figure is 84.7
years (2015 estimate) with 87 years for women and 80 years for men; in Singapore, it is 84.68
(2015 estimate). A number of other Asian countries are among the most improved for healthy

life expectancy since 1990, including Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. China is investing
$127 billion in new health infrastructure over the next two years. If Asian poultry farmers
received incentives to replace their live-market businesses—the source of many viruses—with
frozen-products markets, the annual loss of life and economic impacts could be reduced.
Environmental health will get greater attention due to the alarming air and water quality in China
(Beijing has had air quality recordings three times higher than hazardous levels; Ludhiana in
India is even worse.) Pakistan spends only 2% of its GDP on health care.
In terms of NTDs, unprecedented progress has been made in the elimination of visceral
leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. In Bangladesh, technical expertise, political
commitment, and community mobilization have contributed to the more than 70% reduction
achieved in the number of new reported cases between 2009 and 2013. In 2014 a Memorandum
of Understanding was signed by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Thailand for the
elimination of visceral leishmaniasis, with all five countries adopting the use of single-dose
liposomal amphotericin B. Only Indonesia has populations that require preventive chemotherapy
for schistosomiasis, and 10,392 people were treated for this in 2013, compared with 14,102
people in 2011. Four countries (Egypt, Somalia, Sudan. and Yemen) have populations requiring
chemotherapy. The number of people reported to have received preventive chemotherapy there
was 2.7 million in 2012. In 2013, Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen reported treating nearly 12 million
people (45.1% being school-age children), representing a considerable increase against 2012.
Yemen accounted for 80.1% of those reported treated in 2013.
Europe: Although the aging population of Europe and increasing migration are stressing
government medical services, under-five mortality has fallen 50% since 1990 and maternal
mortality has dropped 25%.The European Health Report 2012: Charting the Way to Well-being,
by WHO, gives country statistics for mortality, causes of death, risk factors and risky behaviors,
and six goals for Europe by 2020 in premature mortality, life expectancy, inequities in health,
well-being, universal health coverage, and national targets set by member states. WHO Europe
(Health 2020) is changing its focus toward prevention amid a funding crisis due to the global
recession. Hospital-borne infections affect 3 million Europeans per year. TB deaths continue to
increase in Europe after a 40-year decline. Ukraine has the highest prevalence of HIV in Europe,
but this has been decreasing since 2006. In Russia, drug tests are obligatory in schools and
universities. In order to maintain and optimize its free health care system, Russia reduced the
number of health facilities in rural areas from 8,249 in 2005 to 2,085 in 2013, including a drop in
hospital numbers from 2,631 to only 124.
Latin America: The OAS and PAHO are integrating the region’s eHealth and eGovernment
systems. The LAC region has the highest life expectancy among developing regions and the
highest rates of antiretroviral treatment for HIV/AIDS of any WHO region. Vaccination
coverage is also among the highest in the developing world. While Haiti’s HIV rate has fallen
from 6% to 2.2% over the last 10 years, the earthquake in 2010 devastated medical systems and

brought on a cholera outbreak of a half-million cases and perhaps 250,000 more, as the cholera
strain is evolving, spreading to Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and may become endemic.
Some 100,000 Haitians are expected to be vaccinated against cholera this year. The HIV/ AIDS
epidemic remains stable throughout Latin America. Brazil has shown that free ART has since
1996 dramatically cut AIDS mortality, extended survival time, saved $2 billion in hospital costs,
and keeps prevalence to 0.6%. Neglected tropical diseases affect 200 million people in Latin
America (intestinal worms, chagas, schistosomiasis, trachoma, dengue fever, leishmaniasis,
lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis) mostly in Brazil. Canine rabies and human rabies
transmitted by dogs have been eliminated in many countries in Latin America. Between 2010
and 2014, human rabies transmitted by dogs was restricted to the Plurinational State of Bolivia,
the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and some limited areas within Brazil and
Peru; elimination of dog-transmitted human rabies is expected in Latin America (by end-
2015).Traffic accidents are the second leading cause of death in Mexico for children and young
people from 5 to 29 years of age.
North America: Future health threats from climate change such as extreme weather conditions
and changing diseases carriers are expected to worsen for the foreseeable future. The current
urgent threats in the U.S., according to CDC, are carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae, drug-
resistant gonorrhea, and clostridium difficile (a serious diarrheal infection causing 250,000
hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths annually that is usually associated with antibiotic use).
Although the U.S. spends almost 20% of its GDP on it health care, results have not been
satisfactory and there are too many uninsured, resulting in the new U.S. health care legislation.
Some 21 states have chosen not to take advantage of the expanded Medicaid part of the law,
leaving many of the poorest without maximum benefit. In the meantime, with a slowed economy,
hospitals are increasingly merging to form insurance-like systems; insurance companies are
buying and/or making deals with health care providers.
The U.S. is upgrading its electronic health records and other forms of health information
technology with $29 billion from the HITECH Act.
The FDA approved Truvada, the first drug approved to reduce the risk of HIV infection
in uninfected individuals. The U.S. has 1.1 million people with HIV (50,000 new HIV infections
acquired in 2012); Canada has 73,000. CDC reports that roughly half of new HIV infections in
the U.S. originate from the 20% of people living with the virus who are unaware of their
infection.
About 33% of children in the U.S. are overweight or obese, and one survey found that
children aged 8–18 spent on average 7.5 hours a day with entertainment media.
The Americas has been declared the first region to eliminate rubella, following 15 years
of vaccination campaigns. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has committed nearly $2
billion in malaria grants and more than $1.4 billion to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS,
Tuberculosis, and Malaria.

Figure 1.7 Health expenditure per capita (world, current $)

Global Challenge 9. How can education and learning make humanity more
intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?
Much of the world’s knowledge is available—either directly or through intermediaries—to the

majority of humanity today. Google and Wikipedia are helping to make the phrase “I don’t
know” obsolete. The Internet is reinforcing curiosity and lifelong learning. The ideal of excellent
curricula and excellent teachers being available to anyone at anytime is a possibility within sight.
Increasing numbers of university courses (over 6,000 now) are freely available to anyone in the
world with an Internet connection. MOOCs are accessed directly from universities or through
intermediaries like Coursera and edX. Learning systems independent of universities, like TED
and the Kahn Academy, are also proliferating. A team led by Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook is
dedicated to getting everyone on the planet connected to the Internet, as is Google’s Loon Project
to create a network of high-altitude balloons for universal Internet access. The price of laptops
and smart phones continues to fall. However, successfully applying all these resources for better

learning around the world requires much greater effort to distribute these capabilities and adapt
them to cultures.
Fundamental changes in education and learning will be critical as low-cost universal artificial
intelligence, robotics, and other technologies will transform the nature of work over the next
generation or two. Some believe that without fundamental changes in education and learning, the
world could face 50% technological unemployment by 2050. If intelligent technology replaces
most repetitive human labor, then many argue that education and learning just focus on creativity,
problem solving, entrepreneurship, tolerance, compassion, and increasing intelligence. In the
meantime, since technical requirements for work are increasing, we need to dramatically increase
our S&T, engineering, mathematical, and software programs.
Fortunately, the world is getting better educated, but slowly. To dramatically speed this up, a
$15 million XPRIZE is being created for the development of open source and scalable software
for children anywhere in the world to teach themselves basic reading, writing, and numeracy within
18 months. As of mid-2015, over 620 teams have registered to compete for this XPRIZE in education.
According to UNESCO, youth literacy rates have improved from 83.4% in 1990 to
approximately 92% in 2015, while adult (over 15 years old) literacy rates improved from 75.7%
in 1990 to approximately 86% in 2015 (but still leaving 743 million adults illiterate). Pre-
primary enrollment grew from 112 million in 1999 to 164 million in 2010. Primary school
completion rates grew from 9.3% in 1999 to 90.3% in 2011. The percent of secondary-school-
age children's enrollment grew from 53% in 2000 to 62.5% in 2010. Enrollment of tertiary
education grew from 19% in 2000 to about 30% in 2010. Nevertheless, about 71 million children
of lower secondary school age are not in school. One in six children in low- and middle-income
countries will not complete primary school in 2015. The attempted murder of Malala Yousafzai
in Pakistani by the Taliban underscores the struggle to get educational access for 28.5 million
primary-school-age children in the world’s conflict zones today, according to UNESCO.
Although the percent of children out of school has fallen, the number remains high due to population
growth over the past decade, and international aid to basic education has not kept pace.
The EU, the U.S., China, Israel, and Japan have major research projects attempting to
understand the brain. Future results could address brain diseases, improve brain functioning, lead
to better computer designs, and create new brain-computer synergies. Advances in cognitive
science should be integrated into teacher training and learning systems. Google plans to augment
intelligence by developing a personal Artificial Intelligent brain assistant. In addition to
knowledge acquisition and socialization, Ministries of Education should declare increasing
intelligence as a national goal of education, which could speed up learning applications of
advances in cognitive science and brain research. Human IQ test scores have been increasing
around the world for over 50 years (the Flynn Effect); the cause of this, or whether humanity is
getting more intelligent, is not clear, but at least the scores are not going down.
The connection of computers and learning is dramatically changing. As Moore's Law
continues to be valid over the next decade or so, portable intelligent devices could have the
processing power of the human brain. Individuals would access the world's knowledge that has

been integrated for "just-in-time knowledge and learning," using simulations with immersive
virtual reality interfaces adapted to individuals' unique needs throughout their lives, along with
online collaborative problem solving gaming among individuals around the world. Continuous
evaluation of individual learning processes designed to prevent people from growing unstable
and/or becoming mentally ill, along with programs aimed at eliminating prejudice and hate,
could bring about a more beautiful, loving world, which will become more necessary as
increasingly destructive technologies become more available to individuals. In a more globalized
world, respect and intercultural collaboration skills and attitudes will become increasingly important.
Brain functioning or intelligence could be increased by combinations of improved nutrition,
reasoning exercises, believing that increasing intelligence is possible (placebo effect), responding
to feedback, consistency of love coupled with diversity of environment, contact with intelligent
people via Internet avatars, brain enhancement pharmaceuticals, software and games, memes
(intelligence is sexy), and low-stress stimulating environments, with certain music, colors, and
fragrances that improve concentration and performance. Insights from partial mapping of the
human brain and other methods could dramatically increase personal intelligence and longevity.
In the more remote future, brains may be genetically enhanced, and designer bacteria via synthetic
biology could repair brain damage and make the brain cells work more efficiently. With the use
of public communications to reinforce the pursuit of knowledge and the use of these learning
innovations and concepts, individual and collective intelligence of societies could be improved.
Advances throughout history have created gaps between early adapters who can afford future
means of augmented intelligence initially at higher costs and those who are less able to afford
such advances. Serious efforts will have to be made to prevent dangerous knowledge/intelligence
gaps leading to unstable conditions. Policymakers should develop ways to encourage broad
democratic usage of these new powers without letting their abuse by the few disadvantage the
many. Future prejudices could emerge between those who are more technologically augmented
and those less so. Over the last several years, the digital gap has begun to narrow, giving hope
that greater decentralization, access, transparency, and proliferation of feedback mechanisms can
address these concerns. As the learning market expands, the unit cost of technologies and
learning designs should fall, reducing the time from wealthy early adopters to more universal
access. By 2050, most of the world could become augmented geniuses, fundamentally changing
education and learning systems as we know them today.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Africa is the only continent where more than half of parents are not able
to help their children with homework due to illiteracy. Only 1% of national education budgets of
most African governments are earmarked to address literacy. Hence, a successful XPRIZE for
education to be delivered by 2019 could be very significant to Africa's future. Although African
school attendance has increased 33% since 1999, 43% of the world’s primary-school-aged children
out of school are in Africa. According to UNESCO, 38% of African adults (some 153 millions) are

illiterate and two-thirds of these are women. The region has the lowest literacy rates, with youth
literacy rate at 70% and the average adult rate at 59% in 2011 (varying from 25% in Guinea to 94%
in Equatorial Guinea). Some 10 million young people drop out of school per year in sub-Saharan
Africa. Save the Children has proved that female dropout rates are reduced in South Sudan when
separate school sanitary facilities are put in for girls. In Nigeria, primary school completion among
the poorest households actually fell from 35% in 2003 to 22% in 2013, according to UNESCO.
Iron-rich and protein foods have to be taken together to help young brains to develop; a key
reason so many children in Africa get protein malnutrition is because the protein and iron-rich
foods are often not mixed well with corn, millet, or cassava paste for young children whose
hands are not developed enough to pick up both the starchy food and the higher protein and iron
foods. Hence, pre-mixing these foods for children could help brain development. New applications
of cognitive science and mobile technologies are needed to "catch up" with the OECD countries;
Open Educational Resources for Africa is making content freely available without license fees
and can be adapted as needed and used on mobile phones.
Middle East and North Africa: According to Al Masah Capital Limited, expenditure on
education is now 3.8% of the GDP in Middle Eastern and North African countries and it is
expected to continue to increase. Primary-age children out of school in the Arab world fell from
6.8 million in 2002 to 4.8 million in 2011, while their secondary school-age out of school fell
from 4.9 million to 3.8 million. At the secondary level, the number of out- of-school adolescents
fell from 4.9 million to 3.8 million between 2002 and 2011. In Arab States, the number of girls
enrolled for every 100 boys increased from 87 in 1999 to 95 in 2012. According to the Institute
of International Education, the number of international Middle Eastern students coming to the
U.S. has more than tripled since 2000.
Asia and Oceana: Half the world’s illiterate adults live in South and West Asia; only 63% of
this region's adults are literate. However, East Asian and Pacific adults are 95% literate, and
Central Asians are 100% literate, according to UNESCO collected data. Youth literacy rates
were also highest in Central Asia (100%) and East Asia and the Pacific (99%). Youth literacy in
South and West Asia is 81%. The percent of university-age individuals enrolled in higher
education rose from 1.4% in 1978 to over 20% today. However, UNESCO reports that in South
and West Asia there will be 76 literate women for every 100 literate men in 2015. Samsung
Economic Research Institute says 70% of South Korean household spending in Seoul pays for
private education of their children. Mintel Group research found that 90% of children in middle-class
families in China go to after-school fee-charging education programs and that 87% of Chinese
parents are willing to pay for additional overseas education. China accounted for 31% of all
international students in the U.S. in 2013–14 with India and South Korea providing the next
largest groups.

Europe: Much of the higher education in Europe is free or at very low cost. The EC has 17 million
students in 4,000 higher education institutions whose purpose and methods are being reviewed to
anticipate a far more complex and changing future. The Knowledge Future report to the EC
recommends the development of an open, participatory, integrated information system of research,
innovation, and other EC-relevant knowledge as a tool for higher education, expert collaboration,
and public participation in the policy process. The EU's Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies is leading the Open Educational Resources project in Europe on how to use Open
Educational Resources and envision educational scenarios to 2030. Tele-education could help
address the falling educational resources in rural areas due to fertility rates and urbanization.
Latin America: Argentina and Costa Rica invest 6.3% of their GDP in education—the largest
investors in education in Latin America. Brazil’s educational spending is 5.8% of GDP, Mexico
spends 5.2%, and Chile, Colombia, and Peru spend 4.5%, 4.4%, and 2.8% respectively of their
GDP on education. Only 4% of those who complete higher education in the region come from a
low-income family. UNESCO is losing its influence in the region due to its shrinking budget.
Over 800,000 One Laptop Per Child computers have been distributed on South America.
Uruguay has distributed half of these laptops (400,000) to every primary student and teacher in
the country. Educational systems in more-socialist countries prefer not to have international
standards and testing, while those that are more market-oriented are seeking them. Free inquiry
and the pursuit of new insights and truth may be reduced by this ideological tug-of-war over the
education of the next generation.
North America: Although increasing numbers of people are accessing MOOCs, a University of
Pennsylvania study found only an average of 4% complete the courses; however, those who do
complete learn with little additional infrastructure or capital expenses, and many more are just
exploring the subject and being curious without any intention of completing the course. These
numbers may change, since the cost of conventional university education is high, leaving many
graduates with high debts (U.S. university student loan debt is over $1 trillion) and disappointing
job perspectives. Efforts have begun to create an American Nationally Accredited MOOCs
University. Because Canada has no national ministry of education, there is little national
coordination between the number and qualifications of university graduates and the labor market
needs. A recent U.S. National Research Council report recommends more focus on testing
students' scientific reasoning and ability to design scientific experiments. The falling trend of
U.S. high school reading and math scores, as well as graduation rates from 1970 to 2000, finally
began to improve between 2000 and 2010. However, international rankings of the U.S. remain
low compared with educational resources per student. State support for U.S. higher education has
fallen 23% since 2008. Nevertheless, the U.S. continues to attract students worldwide. According
to the Institute of International Education, the enrollment of international students in the U.S.
increased by 42% between 2008 and 2014.
* * *

Education and Learning 2030: the following graph shows the likelihood of education and
learning possibilities by 2030 as judged by an International Panel of The Millennium Project. A
rating of 50 on the likelihood scale would mean that there is a 50% chance the possibility will
occur by 2030—in other words, that it is just as likely to occur as not to occur. An assessment of
how each possibility could turn out positively and negatively as well as who will help it to occur
and who might hinder it is presented in the Education and Learning 2030 study, available in the
Global Futures Intelligence System (www.themp.org), under “Research”.
Figure 1.8 Likelihood of education and learning possibilities by 2030

Global Challenge 10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce
ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
The vast majority of the world is living in peace, and transborder wars are increasingly rare. Yet
half the world has the potential to become violently unstable due to a combination of growing
inequality, increasing unemployment, rising prices of food, falling water tables, abuses of elite
power, outdated institutional structures, organized crime, terrorist groups, limited access to
natural and social resources, and inadequate legal and governance systems. Globalization,
migration, geopolitical shifts, the changing nature of power, and increasing access of individuals
to natural, technological, and social resources have raised the world’s vulnerabilities to new
levels and are changing the security paradigm. The diplomatic, foreign policy, military, and legal
systems to address the new asymmetrical threats have yet to be established. The UN, NATO, and
other security structures are based on the nation-state as the primary decision-making entity,
which has become increasingly inadequate.

State of peacefulness: According to the 2015 Global Peace Index, the world has become less
peaceful every year since 2008. The trend toward peace has improved in 81 countries, but in 78
it deteriorated; the cost of violence, around the world, totaled $14.3 trillion in 2014 (or 13.4% of
World GDP), increasing 15.3% since 2008.
Terrorist activity is also on the rise, with the 2015 GPI showing an estimated 20,000 total
deaths from terrorism in 2014, a 9% increase compared to the previous year and a tenfold
increase in the yearly average terrorism fatalities since 2005. According to the 2014 Global
Terrorism Index, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks in 2013 was 61% higher than in
2012, and the number of countries that experienced more than 50 deaths rose from 15 in 2012 to
24 in 2013. However, 82% of all deaths occurred in just five countries: Iraq, Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Nigeria, and Syria. Terrorism has been dominated by four groups: the Taliban, Boko
Haram, ISIL, and Al-Qaeda. The lone actor phenomenon adds a new dimension to the global
security landscape, not only from a safety point of view, but most of all from ethical and legal
perspectives. As a "glocalized" phenomenon, it needs a global framework with local action. The
123 million young people between the ages of 15 and 24 who are illiterate represent a growing
unemployment problem. The vast majority of them are in South and West Asia (62 million) and
sub-Saharan Africa (48 million).
The 2014 Fragile States Index, compiled by the Fund for Peace, shows that out of the 178
countries rated on their susceptibility to destabilization, some 126 are in the "alert" or "warning"
category, although over the past six years there were some noticeable improvements.
The IDMC reports show a continued rise in internally displaced people worldwide, from 33.3
million in 2013 to 38 million in 2014. In mid-2014, there were 18.1 million refugees of concern
according to UNHCR, 2.1 million more than the 2013 figure, and 5.1 million of them were
refugees in about 60 UNRWA camps (about 300,000 more than the previous year). The Global
Peace Index estimates that nearly 1% of the world is now a refugee or IDP, a proportion of the
global population that has not been seen since 1945. At the beginning of 2015, there were 16 UN
Peacekeeping missions, along with political missions, in Libya, Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan,
with a total of 125,396 security and support personnel from 120 countries.
Changing nature of conflict: Civilians constitute the majority of fatalities in the
international struggle against violent extremism, and the changing nature of transnational
terrorism makes it difficult for governments to ensure homeland security. However, lone wolves
and small group attacks are one of the symptoms of our social and international systems’ failures
to keep pace with a better informed, highly connected, technology-savvy, more demanding, and
interrelated world. The combination of thought and feelings with the capability of new
technologies and data availability became the most powerful weapon, available to almost anyone
interested. Recent studies reveal a higher prevalence and success rate of lone wolf attacks than
other types of terrorism.
Mail-order DNA and future desktop molecular and pharmaceutical manufacturing, plus
access (possibly via organized crime) to nuclear materials, could one day give single individuals
the ability to make and use weapons of mass destruction (SIMAD: Single Individuals Massively

Destructive)—from biological weapons that could kill millions in an epidemic to low-level

nuclear “dirty” bombs. To prevent this, three areas should be developed: mesh networks of
nanotech sensors and other advanced technology to detect such threats; mental health and
education systems to detect and treat individuals who might otherwise grow up to use such
weapons; and roles and responsibilities for the public to detect potential SIMADs. These
approaches have complex legal and constitutional issues that are not yet resolved.
Improving capabilities to deal with risks of terrorism, piracy, regional instability, and missile
and cyberattacks, as well as widening cooperation with partners, are the highest priorities of
NATO in order to build stability and avoid fighting instability. The 2014 National Intelligence
Strategy of the USA, warning that the “risk of conflict and mass atrocities may increase,”
underlines the importance of identifying and monitoring the effects of threat multipliers such as
demographic changes, poverty, environmental degradation, and the scarcity of basic resources,
since they could cause further political instability and social tensions—“conditions that can
enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence.”
Environmental security: As growing populations and economies increase the drain on
natural resources and cause environmental degradation, social tensions are expected to increase,
triggering complex interactions of old ethnic and religious conflicts, civil unrest, indigenous
protests, terrorism, and crime. In local areas where political, environmental, and economic
conditions worsen, increasing migrations can be expected, which in turn can create new conflicts.
Future effects of climate change could create up to 400 million migrants by 2050, which could
further increase conditions for conflict. The UN estimates that 40% of the internal conflicts over
the past 60 years were natural resource–related. Although the degree of climate change’s impacts
is uncertain, it would be prudent to prepare to adapt to increasing floods in wet areas, increasing
droughts in dry areas, falling river flows fed by mountain ice, and seawater incursions into
freshwater areas.
Conflicts related to natural resources and/or environmental degradation are twice as likely to
return to violence or become “re-wars” within five years; hence, peace agreements should
address these environmental conditions while dismantling the structures of violence and
establishing structures of peace. Since conflict and environmental degradation exacerbate each
other, their spectrum and severity could expand unless they are addressed together, as a system.
As a result, environmental security is increasingly dominating national and international agendas,
shifting defense and geopolitical paradigms. Increased attention is being given to environmental
security and other non-traditional security strategies for addressing the root causes of unrest and
protecting individuals as well as sovereign states. Militaries will have to focus on social and
environmental conditions as well as battlefields and soldiers, forcing new financial prioritization.
The UN Security Council’s focus on the environment-security-development nexus is increasing,
as several countries are urging that climate change be addressed as a global security threat, with
issues ranging from loss of livelihoods and illegal exploitation of minerals to the impacts of
climate change on national sovereignty. However, the UN's International Law Commission has

stated that they do not intend to impose stricter restrictions on belligerents to protect the
environment.
Military expenditure: SIPRI estimates that global military expenditures were $1,176 billion
in 2014, about 0.4% lower than 2013 spending levels. Military expenditures in North America,
Western Europe, and Central Europe are decreasing, while they are increasing in all other
regions. The volume of the world arms trade in 2010–14 was 16% higher than in 2005–09. In
2012, China joined the U.S., Russia, Germany, and France as the world's largest suppliers of
arms; together, they accounted for 74% of global weapons exports in 2014. Asia and Oceania's
share of arms imports increased from 40% in 2005–09 to 48% in 2010–14. The Middle East's
arms imports in 2010–14 were 25% higher than its 2005–09 imports, while Europe's import of
weapons decreased by 36% over the same time period. India, Saudi Arabia, China, the UAE, and
Pakistan accounted for the world's top five importers in 2014.
NATO guidelines suggest that countries spend 2% of their GDP on defense, with at least
20% of expenditures on defense-related R&D and major equipment acquisitions. Only the U.S.
(NATO's biggest defense spender), the UK, Greece, and Estonia met the 2% guideline in 2013.
However, initiatives such as Smart Defence are increasing the efficiency of both operations and
funds by generating new defense capabilities through growing cooperation among allies.
According to the 2015 Defence Companies Anti-Corruption Index, compiled by
Transparency International, 66% of defense companies have poor to non-existent ethics and anti-
corruption programs. Nevertheless, since 2012, some 60% of the companies surveyed have seen
marginal improvements, while 33% have taken greater steps toward mitigating corruption.
Nuclear threats: The IAEA database records a total of 2,556 incidents of illicit trafficking
and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear and other radioactive materials between 1993
and the middle of 2014 (up from 2,407 last year). The IAEA received reports of 149 nuclear
trafficking incidents during 2014 (compared with 155 the previous year and 163 during 2012),
ranging from illegal possession and attempted sale and smuggling to unauthorized disposal of
materials and discoveries of lost radiological sources. The Project on Managing the Atom noted
that a series of nuclear security summits since 2010 have led to 13 countries getting rid of their
residual HEU and extracted plutonium, increased security for nuclear material–rich sites, better
rules and regulations for safekeeping of nuclear material, and a more robust IAEA. At the same
time, it called for further consolidation of the global effort to secure radiological material.
The number of nuclear weapons is falling in the U.S., Russia, the UK, and France; staying
relatively constant in Israel and China; and increasing in India, Pakistan, and North Korea,
according to a comparison of the 2008 and 2015 estimates by the Federation of American
Scientists. The New START Treaty (signed in 2010) is still binding on the U.S. and Russia, but
tensions over Ukraine, disagreements over the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, and the
politics of missile defense complicate the future of both the treaty and nuclear disarmament in
general. As of April 28, 2015, the U.S. had 1,900 deployed strategic warheads and Russia had
1,780. Assuming that the conditions of the New START Treaty are upheld, the FAS projects that
the number of warheads in the U.S. and Russia will drop to around 1,550 and 1,330, respectively,

by 2022. The total number of the world's nuclear weapons (deployed, in reserve, and waiting for
dismantlement) was around 15,700 in 2015, down from 20,373 in March of 2008 and from more
than 65,000 in 1985.
Maritime conflicts: Although interstate wars may be disappearing, which reduces the need
for deterrence policies, long-range multistate tensions over (energy and food) resources and
boundary claims under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea are intensifying. In the South
China Sea, China is attempting to solidify its nine-dash line through island reclamation and
basing while many ASEAN states have competing claims. The tensions have increased in recent
months as China is increasingly strengthening its efforts in the SCS. Within only weeks, small
atolls have been remarkably expanded into impressive military bases with airstrips and harbors.
Additionally, sea level rise associated with climate change will inundate low-lying islands and
force re-evaluations of maritime boundary claims under UNCLOS. One response has been
militarization. China and India are investing heavily in their military forces, particularly naval
procurement, as are many of the states in Asia and Oceania. China’s language on U.S.
involvement in the South China Sea is increasingly bellicose.
The warming of the Arctic will give access to new shipping lanes and sources of oil and
natural gas, which adds a potential conflict zone for nation-states with overlapping jurisdictions.
Russia is reopening the Arctic to its military and created a new command in the region, while the
military exercises of the other Arctic states and NATO are growing in size and importance. The
opportunities for peaceful solutions to these maritime boundary issues will lie in adherence to
international law and arbitration (under UNCLOS) and the value of intergovernmental and
multilateral institutions, such as the Arctic Council and ASEAN.
The cyber dimension: After land, sea, air, and space, cyberspace is now the “fifth
battlespace” or domain on the agenda of security experts. Governments and businesses face
cyberattacks (espionage or sabotage) daily from other governments, competitors, hackers, and
criminal organizations. The sources of these assaults are tough to identify, and this makes
retribution problematic. Even when the source is verified, it is difficult to formulate an
appropriate response. Countries, especially highly connected ones, have to consider the threat of
a "cyber Pearl Harbor"; hence, much effort has been devoted to cyberdefense and potential
countermeasures. Because society’s vital systems increasingly depend on the Internet,
cyberweapons that could bring them down can be thought of as weapons of mass destruction;
hence, deterrence and protection are critical, yet policy is not clear, and international cyberarms
agreements are non-existent. Unlike nuclear protection and deterrence, cyberwar defense has to
more fully include corporations and individuals, forcing a fundamental re-conceptualization of
protection, deterrence, and defense itself. Increasingly, conflict includes advanced foot soldiers
as nodes in vast networks of war machines, with combatants thousands of miles away controlling
drones overhead. Cyberweapons, special operations, and unmanned sensors and vehicles are
becoming the key military elements of the future. All of this makes satellites prime wartime
targets.

New security paradigm: Military power has yet to prove effective in asymmetrical warfare
without genuine cultural engagement. The new security paradigm is actually about fighting a
philosophy. But when fighting a philosophy there has to be another acceptable one to replace it,
respecting complex cultural, religious, ideological, and ethical aspects. Right now, we fight the
philosophy that guides the terrorists and lone actors—be it based on religious extremism or
social discontent—but do little to offer an alternative, except the rhetoric about a freedom that
does not resonate with them. Thus, this new security paradigm requires innovative strategies by
both security organizations and society to help address the conditions that favor the spread of
threatening ideas. Offering all those young people opportunities instead of weapons or
responding with conciliation rather than violence would have a higher probability of leading to
peace and stability worldwide. Peace strategies without love, compassion, or spiritual outlooks
are less likely to work because intellectual or rational approaches alone are not likely to
overcome the emotional divisions that prevent peace. Conflict prevention and solution efforts
should include NGOs and work with all the related factions, including personal and Internet
conversations with hardline groups and their potential recruits, taking into consideration their
emotional and spiritual sensibilities. Individuals' strong emotional devotion to their ethnic groups
rather than to the nation (and eventually humanity) makes progress toward stable democracy
difficult in many areas. Massive public education programs are needed to promote respect for
diversity and the oneness that underlies that diversity.
It is less expensive and more effective to attack the root causes of unrest than to stop
explosions of violence. In fragile and conflict-states, more ODA should be oriented toward peace
building and state building. In 2012, 46% of ODA went to non-peace and state building efforts,
with only 4% of the money allocated for political reform, 3% for justice, and just about 1% for
security. The Institute for Economics and Peace has shown that the levels of law enforcement
and judiciary corruption are significantly related to the level of peace within countries, but a
change in the level of peace does not affect corruption. While worldwide corruption has
increased over the past seven years, global peace has declined by an average of 5%. The IEP has
also identified a “tipping point,” a point up to which increased corruption does not seriously
affect peace but after which violence (including political varieties, internal conflict, crime
involving force, and murder) sharply increases, along with rising corruption. Of the 64 nations at
the “tipping point,” all are either “flawed democracies” (Philippines, Greece, Mexico),
“authoritarian regimes” (Myanmar, China, Iran), or “hybrid regimes” (Burkina Faso, Bangladesh,
Venezuela).
The Institute for Economics and Peace has identified eight pillars of peace: a well-
functioning government; a sound business environment; an equitable distribution of resources;
an acceptance of the rights of others; good relations with neighbors; the free flow of information;
a high level of human capital; and low levels of corruption. The proposed Sustainable
Development Goal 16, “Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development,
provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all
levels,” might help address the corruption-peace nexus.

The probability of a more peaceful world is increasing due to the growth of democracy,
international trade, global news media, the Internet, increasing prosperity and decreasing extreme
poverty, NGOs' efforts, satellite surveillance, better access to resources, and the evolution of the
UN and regional organizations. Cross-cultural dialogues are flourishing, and intra-state conflicts
are increasingly being settled by international interventions. Some believe that the collective
mind of humanity can contribute to peace or conflict, and hence we can think ourselves into a
more peaceful future.
Transnational justice is one of the major factors for success in post-conflict peace building.
It is still necessary to bring to justice those responsible for war crimes and to support the
International Criminal Court. The Geneva Convention should be updated to cover intrastate
conflicts and the specifics of the new asymmetrical warfare. The UN Security Council
Resolution 11580 Condemning Violent Extremism and to Prevent Travel, Support for Foreign
Terrorist Fighters, adopted in September 2014, is the first comprehensive international legal
instrument that is specifically calling upon all member states to respect their obligations under
international law to prevent the spread of radicalization and terrorism and that addresses the lone
wolf phenomenon. However, wider implementation is difficult due to the absence of a
comprehensive agreement on what individuals or groups are definitively terrorists. Classification
remains highly political, with a great deal of variation among member states’ lists of terrorist
organizations.
In 2015, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons announced that 90% of
the world’s known chemical weapons stockpile had been destroyed. While the chemical and
nuclear treaties have enforcement mechanisms, the deadlock for the Biological Weapons
Convention continues; in the meantime, the developments in the field and the related threats
continue to increase. The Convention on Cluster Munitions entered into force in August 2010,
and by May 2015 had 91 states parties. The Arms Trade Treaty, adopted by the UN in April
2013, entered into force in December 2014. It aims to prevent the flow of arms to conflict
regions, human rights abusers, violators of the laws of war, warlords, pirates, and gangs.
However, it only regulates international trade in conventional arms and in combat aircraft and
warships. Both treaties have yet to be ratified by some major producers and traders such as China,
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. Resolution 2220, adopted in 2015, aims to increase
cooperation among nations to curb “illicit transfer, destabilizing accumulation and misuse” of
small arms and light weapons, mainly to terrorists and criminal networks, and calls upon all
states to ratify the ATT and the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime and its
Protocols. The UN remarks that over the past decade, small arms and light weapons were a
common factor in over 250 conflicts and 50,000 deaths around the world. Although more than 70
countries have or are developing drones and other devices for remote-control warfare, there are
currently no international laws that specifically regulate their use.
New technologies are offering unprecedented possibilities for peace and conflict. Advances
in detection, cleanup, monitoring, and surveillance will increase concurrently with accuracy and
lethality. Intelligent battlefield robots will have elements of the rules of engagement and the

Geneva Convention built into their programming. Self-adjusting bullets will be less likely to
miss their targets (for good or ill). Low-cost, highly networked drones will form “swarms” that
can operate in combat or peaceful reconnaissance roles. A NASA project tested the concept of
“spiderbots” that can be placed into a hazardous environment to communicate among themselves
and with the outside world, including satellites, to monitor dangerous situations. Ultra-sensitive,
portable chemical and biological devices offer increasing accuracy in detection, monitoring, and
cleanup, with rapid response times.
Governments should establish an international audit system for each weapon type, destroy
existing stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons, create tracking systems for potential
bioweapons, develop SIMAD prevention strategies, and support networks of CDC-like centers to
counter impacts of bioterrorism. And agreement should be reached on enforcement mechanisms
for the Biological Weapons Convention. Work should continue to make irregular warfare more
humane and to increase the use of non-lethal weapons and the precision of drone attacks in order
to reduce civilian deaths and potential future revenge cycles.
Early warning systems of governments and UN agencies could better connect with NGOs
and the media to help generate the political will to prevent or reduce conflicts. User-initiated
collaborations on the Web should be increasingly used for peace promotion, rumor control, fact-
finding, and reconciliation. Back-casted peace scenarios should be created through participatory
processes to show plausible alternatives to conflict stories (see ''Middle East Peace Scenarios'' in
Scenarios, under Research in GFIS).
Assessing progress: Challenge 10 will be addressed seriously when intrastate wars, arms
sales, and violent crimes decrease by 50% from one year to another.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The region has slowly decreased conflicts over the past 10 years, and one
of the worst offenders, the M23 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has eschewed
violence. The African Union has set up a Rapid Reaction Force to deal with outbreaks of
violence on the continent. The cost of conflicts fueled by imported weapons in Africa is
estimated at $11 billion. South Sudan has achieved independence, but disputes with the north and
internal conflicts are continuing. The 2015 GPI notes that in 2014, Guinea-Bissau and Cote
d'Ivoire registered the highest score improvements in the world, while Djibouti has been down-
rated 42 places due to rising social unrest in response to the government's authoritarian rule.
IDMC estimates that there are more than 11.3 million IDPs in sub-Saharan Africa, out of
which some 4.5 million were newly displaced in 2014. Central Africa has the highest number of
IDPs, 7.9 million, 3 million of whom were newly displaced in 2014. The countries with the
largest number of IDPs—South Sudan, Somalia, CAR, DRC, and Sudan—are also rated as the
world’s "Very High Alert" countries. Boko Haram’s extreme violence in efforts to impose
Islamic law in northeastern Nigeria displaced at least 975,300 people in 2014.

French and UN forces are still battling the insurgency in northern Mali, and Somalia is a
failing patchwork of regions run locally or from Kenya or Ethiopia. The unrest between
Christians and Muslims in Nigeria and in Kenya has intensified and threatens to ignite wider
sectarian conflict in those regions. General unrest is endemic in much of West Africa and is
compounded by poor and corrupt governance. Youth unemployment, illiteracy of about 50% among
young people, and 11.6 million AIDS orphans may fuel a new generation of violence and crime.
Middle East and North Africa: The Arab Spring/Awakening, overturning a number of long-
lived authoritarian regimes, opened the wider Arab world to the prospect of embracing
democratic governance. However, due to various reasons, this state of affairs has not been
achieved yet. The spread of political instability throughout North Africa and the Middle East has
inhibited the sort of national unity that is necessary for democratization. Some Middle Eastern
countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are buying their weapons from different
suppliers to diversify their dependence on other countries, especially the United States. Iraq is
buying $4.2–5 billion in arms from Russia, while ISIL, largely as a result of Iraq's ineffective
government and sectarian divisions, attempts to establish a caliphate throughout the rest of Iraq
as it continues its insurgency in Syria.
Violent Al-Qaeda activities have increased in the Islamic Maghreb and the Arabian Peninsula,
especially in Mali, Somalia, and Yemen, and this reflects the organization's post-bin Laden shift
from a centralized organization to a franchise operation. Lone wolf extremists supplement such
Al-Qaeda activity throughout the world. The ongoing civil war in Yemen, which is exacerbated
by the Saudi-led airstrikes, has devastated the country, and if not properly addressed it could
dangerously increase instability in the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen's agriculture and infrastructure
systems have been destroyed as its water crisis persists, and WFP aid cannot reach more than
10% of the country's 24 million starving population. If instead of violence and weapons the
response was desalination units and economic opportunities for the million unemployed Yemenis,
the chances to end violence in the region might greatly increase. The IDMC notes the number of
IDPs in the region increased for a third consecutive year, reaching 11.9 million, with about
10,500 people newly displaced daily. By the end of 2014, some 7.6 million IDPs were in Syria,
while for many of them return is not an option, given that 30% of the country’s housing is
estimated to be damaged or destroyed.
Egypt's difficulty in establishing a stable government is emblematic of the struggle
throughout the Islamic world between secular and religious forces. Ethiopia's policy of damming
the Nile's vital waters is causing a serious conflict with Egypt, but it is hoped that a recent
agreement will ease tension. In the wake of the Arab revolutions, Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran
fear the aspirations for an independent Kurdistan among the Kurdish minorities in their countries,
and such independence already exists de facto in Syria and Iraq. The OPCW-UN mission in
Syria was completed in June 2014, although the UN must continue to monitor chlorine gas
attacks. Worsening conditions in the Syrian civil war could lead to the involvement of Turkey (a
NATO member), Israel, and Lebanon.

The election of a more moderate Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, and renewed
negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (U.S., UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China) have
raised the hope that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon. However, Saudi Arabia fears that
such a deal could increase Iran’s hegemony in the region without even preventing it from
acquiring an atomic bomb.
Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority have not resumed, for Israel's
conservative Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, refuses to meet any of the PA's three
preconditions: settlement freeze, commitment to negotiating along the 1967 lines, and release of
Palestinian prisoners. Meantime, the Palestinians continue acts of terrorism, threats, and violence.
Asia and Oceania: Long-term global perspectives and possibly international intervention will be
needed to solve energy resource conflicts in the South China Sea, where China, Vietnam,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines are contending over islets and economic zones.
Alliances within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including with the United States or
India, can broaden the scope of the tensions. China’s internal problems over water, energy,
demographics, urbanization, income gaps, and development projects displacing villagers will
have to be well managed to prevent future conflicts. The severe Muslim Uighur unrest in the
northwest is continuing unabated, but there are some signs of progress in Tibet. China is moving
into Central Asia, becoming the major economic partner in four of the five republics, but is
fostering hostility toward Japan in its population. It is also very actively pursuing major
economic penetration in Africa and Latin America and is attempting to become a significant
world naval power.
An internationally acceptable solution to North Korea’s nuclear program is still lacking.
Japan is about to adopt a set of security bills that would greatly expand its defense role in
overseas military operations. Mindanao has finally achieved a degree of autonomy in the
Philippines after its long and violent struggle. Pakistan’s internal instability and the complex
strategic relationships among Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan hinder the peacemaking and
counter-extremist efforts in all three countries. The $7.5 billion in civilian aid given to Pakistan
over the past five years has mostly been ineffective, and the U.S.-Pakistan relationship is very
shaky. Persecution of non-Muslims persists there. India is facing spreading Maoist violence.
As the international combat mission in Afghanistan scales down, the threat of the Taliban—
with a core of some 60,000 fighters—is increasing and expanding in neighboring countries,
mainly Pakistan. Although difficult to establish, it is estimated that since 2001, some 20,000–
30,000 Taliban and 21,000 Afghan civilians have been killed, while recently, since the fighting
intensified, an average of 12 Taliban fighters are killed every day by Afghan police and army
units. UNHCR estimates that some 3.7 million Afghans have been displaced or are a population
of concern. Contention for control of the country's rich minerals and agricultural resources can
be expected among the government, the warlords, and the insurgents, challenging the country's
newly refurbished security sector. Reportedly, many of the regional officials/warlords also are
proprietors of thriving narcotics networks, aided by their units of the Afghan Local Police, and

are committing terrible human rights violations—torture and murder. China could become a key
intermediary in future stabilization efforts. The agreement on cooperation in counter-terrorism
between the Pakistani and Afghan intelligence services will also heavily affect Afghanistan’s
future security environment, presenting a united front to the Taliban, increasing cross-border
security, and creating an opportunity for improved relations between the two neighbors. Serious
humanitarian needs in Afghanistan are being neglected in favor of reconstruction, an effort
suffering from rampant corruption.
Europe: Western Europe is the most peaceful region in the world, with no domestic or external
conflicts. The Basque ETA rebels have forsworn violence. However, the large numbers of
migrant laborers, refugees, and asylum seekers entering the EU requires new approaches to
better integrate them into society if increased unrest and violence are to be prevented. This is
aggravated by the new surge of immigrants from North Africa that Italy, Greece, and Spain have
taken in but other countries have been less willing to accept. UNHCR estimates that the number
of migrants and asylum seekers arriving in Europe by sea increased to over 218,000 in 2014,
compared with 80,000 in 2013, and some 3,500 lives were lost. Italy estimates that another
200,000 people in Libya are waiting to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Reportedly, ISIL is using
the migrants’ exodus to smuggle fighters into Europe, promote ISIL and Sharia ideology, and
fund terrorism. The new EU anti-smuggling operation, EU Nafor Med, hopes to help curb the
illegal migration by sea.
Only the U.K., Greece, and Estonia are set to meet the NATO guideline of 2% of GDP
investment to defense; if Germany were to meet the target, its defense budget would almost
double, from €37 billion (~$42 billion) to over €74 billion (~$84 billion).
The situation of the Roma population (an estimated 10 million throughout Europe) remains a
challenge across the continent. Continued youth unemployment and fiscal austerity in parts of
the Eurozone have resulted in violent social protests. Stronger and more stable institutions and
further political integration are needed to keep the EU together. The revelation of covert U.S.,
and then German, electronic intelligence directed against EU countries increased suspicion
among the alliance members.
The re-emergence of ethnic tensions and confrontations between the Albanian and Slavic
populations in the Western Balkans raises concerns over the fragile stability of the region.
Croatia joined the EU in 2013; membership talks began with Serbia and those with Turkey have
resumed. In view of the Ukraine crises, three Baltic countries—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania —
are asking for permanent NATO presence as a deterrent against increased Russian activity in
several European regions. NATO is embarking on the largest expansion of its collective
capabilities since the end of the Cold War, with the NATO Response Force increasing twofold.
Tensions and violence between Russians and minority citizens from the Caucasus and
Central Asia are increasing, while in Ukraine it exploded into civil war. The war in Ukraine has
led to a deterioration of its economic situation, which may bring further destabilization in the

region. Russia is reforming and modernizing its military and increased its 2015 defense budget to
4.2% of GDP (3.3. trillion rubles), the highest of the post-Soviet period.
Latin America: Drug wars in Mexico caused more deaths than occurred in Afghanistan.
Although national wars are rare in the region, internal violence from organized crime,
paramilitaries, and amalgams of the two groups continues to be fueled in some areas by corrupt
government officials, military, police, and national and international corporations. Criminal
violence and threats have displaced more than 7 million people in the region—over 436,500 of
them in 2014, a 12% increase compared with 2013. Columbia has the highest number of IDPs,
over 6 million, followed by El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala, which together account for
some 820,000 people. To eliminate criminal gangs, Latin America should address inequality and
develop educational systems that meet the requirements of the knowledge economy. Recent
political changes have begun to improve opportunities for indigenous peoples in some parts of
the region, while political polarization over policies to address poverty and development persist.
The Failed States Index shows that since 2008, stability improved in most countries of the
region. The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States adopted a Proclamation of
Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace and is increasing regional integration and
solidarity for the defense of national sovereignty. The International Court in The Hague has
become the most widely used mechanism by Latin American countries to peacefully resolve
conflicts, e.g. between Nicaragua and Colombia, between Peru and Chile, and between Bolivia
and Chile. Brazil proceeds on its path toward world power status. Argentina is resuming a more
aggressive stance toward the Falklands question. Violence is impeding development in Central
America, a region with one of the highest crime and homicide rates in the world.
North America: Although the U.S. is reducing its activity in Afghanistan, preparing to
completely withdraw, it has re-entered the Iraqi arena with a fight against ISIL. Its spending on
national defense was reduced from 4.7% of GDP in 2010 to 3.5% in 2014, and under the Budget
Enforcement Act it is supposed to be cut further to 2.6% by 2020. Hence, its military
expenditure—still the world's highest—has been reduced from $711 billion in 2011 to $610
billion in 2014. Its national defense budget for 2015 is $636.6 billion and the proposed one for
2016 is $612 billion. Over the past five years, Canada's military expenditure has been around
CAD$20 billion but is projected to increase considerably, as its engagements and role in the
international arena are growing.
The U.S. has signed the Arms Trade Treaty but did not ratify it, while Canada neither signed nor
ratified it. As Arctic ice continues to melt, vast quantities of natural gas and oil will be accessible
where national boundaries are disputed. This could be a source of tension between the U.S. and
Canada, along with Russia, Norway, and Denmark.
Cooperation on environmental security could become a focus to build U.S.–China strategic
trust. Such trust-building efforts should be given more attention to reduce nation-state
cyberwarfare.

The number of cyberattacks on the U.S. continues to grow, shifting increasing attention to
the protection of national infrastructure, such as the electric grid and the evolving Internet of
Things.
Figure 1.9 Terrorism incidents
Source: Start Project, University of Maryland, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Global Challenge 11. How can the changing status of women help improve
the human condition?
Empowerment of women has been one of the strongest drivers of social evolution over the past
century and is acknowledged as essential for addressing all the global challenges facing
humanity. Women are increasingly equal partners in social, political, and economic decision-
making, contributing their views and demanding accountability. Gender equality is an
irreversible trend; it has entered the global consciousness and is guaranteed by the constitution of
143 countries. Old patriarchal structures and barbarian extremist practices are increasingly
isolated and unanimously condemned by citizens and authorities around the world. Building on
achievements so far and with the post-2015 agenda, achieving gender equality by 2030 might be
possible.

Status of political and civil rights: Improvements in women’s civil and political rights have
been an important catalyst for sustained progress over the past decades. Much progress has been
made in the political rights:
 Suffrage is virtually universal.
 Women in parliaments almost doubled over the past two decades. In 2015, women
accounted for 22.1% of the membership of national legislative bodies worldwide,
compared with 11.3% in 1995.
 In 43 countries, the rate of women legislators is over 30%, and 24 women served as heads
of state and government (as of January 2015).
 Important organizations such as UNESCO, WHO, and the IMF are headed by women.
 An increasing number of countries and parties have quotas to promote women’s political
participation.
 However, 38 states have parliaments with less than 10% women, including 6 with no
women at all and 8 countries with no women in the cabinet.
The Global Gender Gap Report by the World Economic Forum found that:
 Out of the 111 countries assessed over the past decade, 105 have been making progress in
closing the gender gap.
 None of the 142 economies assessed in 2014 has closed the gender gap, with divides
persisting across and within regions.
 The gaps for health and educational attainment were closed by 96% and 94% respectively,
but only 60% of the economic participation gap and 21% of the global political
empowerment gap had been closed as of 2014.
The Social Institutions and Gender Index computed by OECD—which considers the root
causes of gender inequality, discriminatory laws, and social norms—shows that countries with
better SIGI scores have close to 50% female participation in paid jobs, while in countries with
high discrimination, female employment is just above 20%. The 2014 SIGI found that despite
positive steps, discriminatory social structures continue to persist:
 Of the 121 countries assessed, 86 still have discriminatory inheritance laws or practices.
 Women hold only 15% of land titles.
 Some 20% of women have no adequate access to family planning.
 Violence against women persists.
The Gender Equity Index computed by Social Watch shows that none of the 154 countries
assessed has narrowed the gender gap to an “acceptable” level.
Economic empowerment: Gender equity is strongly supported not only by moral rightness
but also by improved living standards. ILO notes that in 2014:
 Women accounted for some 40% of the global labor force.
 About 73% of the global job gap was due to a shortfall of employment among women.
 The employment-to-population ratio was 72% for men and only 47% for women.
Oxfam remarks that if women’s paid employment rates were the same as men’s, in 15 major
developing economies the income per capita would rise by 14% by 2020 and 20% by 2030.

Closing the male-female employment gap could boost GDP in the U.S. by 9%, in the euro zone
by 13%, and in Japan by 16%.
Women are found in some 18% of the boards of directors of Forbes Global 500 companies in
the OECD countries, with the ratio varying from 45% in Norway (the highest) to 0.7% in South
Korea (the lowest). However, this share tends to increase worldwide, as studies show that
companies with more women on their boards have better results, given that women tend to have
a more cooperative approach to decision-making. Fortune 500 companies with more gender-
balanced boards could outperform the others by as much as 50%.
Although some 60% of countries have equal pay laws and much progress has been accomplished
in recent years, the gender income gap and the glass ceiling persist around the world:
 Oxfam warns that at the current rate of progress, in the G-20 countries it would take
another 75 years to achieve equal pay for equal work.
 In OECD countries, although the gender wage gap decreased from 18.2% in 2000 to
15.5% in 2013 for similar full-time jobs, women are about 16% less likely to be in paid
work and 40% of them have non-standard jobs (compared with 25% of men).
 Across OECD, the wage gap for full-time jobs varies from 36.6% in South Korea (the
highest) to 5.6% in New Zealand (the lowest).
 The Global Gender Gap Index indicates that the gender income gap is between 72% in
high-income countries and 64% in lower-middle income ones, with the most progress
(5% since 2006) made by the low-income countries that had a 67% gender income gap in
2014.
 ActionAid has calculated that if employment and wage gaps were closed, women could
increase their income globally by some 76%, estimated at a global value of $17 trillion,
out of which over $9 trillion would be in developing countries.
 Yet 79 countries have laws that restrict the types of jobs that women can do, and in 15
countries husbands can legally prevent their wives from working or accepting jobs.
Since old structures persist and collective responsibility is generally not yet part of family
customs, in most cases women's economic roles are added to their traditional housework. Despite
some improvements over the past 50 years, daily and virtually all over the world:
 Women spend more time on unpaid work, while men have more leisure time.
 Many mothers of young children, mostly in industrial countries, work by necessity to
achieve and maintain a middle-class living standard that demands two incomes. This puts
an extra burden on women, not necessarily improving their status.
 Almost 50% of the world's working women are in vulnerable employment, often lacking
legal and economic protection. Women represent most of domestic workers and
caregivers to their families.
 The ILO found that out of 65% of global employment assessed in 2014, 24% of women
worked in part-time jobs, compared with only 12.4% of men.

 In the OECD countries, if unpaid work is factored in, then women's earnings vary
between 65% and 40% of male wages—considering their time on unpaid care activities is
between two and five times more than men's.
 ILO estimates that of the 21 million victims of forced labor, 11.4 million are women and
girls, and of the almost 19 million victims exploited by private individuals or enterprises,
4.5 million are victims of forced sexual exploitation.
 Of the estimated 800,000 people trafficked annually over borders, 82% are women and
children. According to some estimates, approximately 80% of trafficking involves sexual
exploitation, and 19% involves labor exploitation.
Better policies and social structures are needed to help women harmonize the demands of
their careers with their family responsibilities. Ensuring their basic employment rights, as well as
services such as free (or employer-paid) preschools and child care, should be integral parts of
strategies to improve the status of women.
About 70% of the people living in poverty are women, mostly living in rural areas. In
developing countries, rural women represent approximately 43% of the agricultural labor force.
Nevertheless, fewer than 20% of the landholders are women and they have limited access to
inputs, seeds, and agricultural extension services. FAO estimates that the yield gap between men
and women farmers is about 20–30%, mainly due to access to resources. The vast majority of
micro loans go to poor women whose businesses are often too small to significantly improve
their living standards; they need the entrepreneurial talent and business skills to scale up the
business to more significantly affect income. Of the 1.6 billion people still lacking access to
basic energy services, 70% are women. Closing the rural gender gap could raise agricultural
output in developing countries by up to 4%, improving food security and reducing the number of
undernourished people by 100–150 million. Since 76% of the extreme poor live in rural areas, it
would be one of the most efficient ways to reduce poverty and improve the living standards of
the many.
Women control about 70% of world consumer spending; hence they can strongly influence
market preferences and culture.
Education: The gender gap is almost closed in education, and is even reversed in some
countries, as girls tend to outperform boys and are more likely to be enrolled in secondary and
tertiary education. Some countries, such as Japan and Saudi Arabia, where many women are
earning PhDs but are culturally inhibited from becoming senior executives, are likely to
experience a "feminine brain drain." However, despite important gains:
 Some 493 million adult women are illiterate (64% of total of the 774 million adult
illiterates).
 About 31 million girls of primary school age do not attend school.
 At this rate, it would take until 2084 to attain universal education, notes the UN.
 More than 800 million women lack the skills necessary for improving their economic
opportunity.

The health gender gap is also closing, but recognizing women's reproductive rights and
providing effective family planning are crucial to curb maternal deaths. Women-specific
challenges persist:
 Although maternal mortality has been reduced worldwide by some 50% since 1990, the
world is not meeting the MDG5 of reducing it by 75% by 2015—some 120 deaths per
100,000 live births.
 WHO reports that some 800 women die every day from preventable complications
related to pregnancy or childbirth around the world.
 Most maternal deaths occur in developing countries, where the maternal mortality ratio is
about 230 deaths per 100,000 live births, compared with 16 per 100,000 live births in
industrial countries.
 A woman's lifetime risk of maternal death is 1 in 160 in developing countries versus 1 in
3,700 in industrial ones, with women living in rural areas at three times higher risk to die
while giving birth than women in urban centers.
 An estimated 2 million women are affected by obstetric fistula, and some 50,000–
100,000 new cases develop each year.
 About 10 million women per year suffer from infections, disease, and other injuries
during pregnancy.
 The highest prevalence of childbirth-related incidents is in parts of Africa and Asia due to
high fertility rates and weak health care systems.
 UNICEF reports that the global mortality rate for children under-five nearly halved since
1990, dropping from 90 to 46 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013. This still means that in
2013 some 6.3 million children—about 17,000 daily—died before their fifth birthdays;
neonatal death accounts for 44% of these deaths (an increase compared to 37% in 1990).
 Some 50% of global under-five deaths are caused by undernutrition.
 Unless the improvements in reducing health risks to young children accelerate, the
MDG4 of reducing by two-thirds the under-five child mortality rate will not be reached
until 2026.
 WaterAid reports that one in three women and girls in urban slums do not have access to
toilets, while unsafe or open toilets increase the risks of physical and sexual violence.
Female genital mutilation/cutting traumatizes about 3 million girls each year, in addition to
the estimated 140 million women and girls already affected, mostly in Africa and the Middle
East and some parts of Asia. The UN Population Fund projects that if current trends persist, a
further 86 million young girls worldwide could be victims of the practice by 2030. Thanks to
concerted efforts by the UN and NGOs, over the last few years some 8,000 communities
abandoned FGM/C and almost 3,000 religious leaders declared that the practice should end. A
new UN resolution calls on states to take all measures—including legislation—to prohibit female
genital mutilation.

Violence against women is the largest war today, as measured by deaths and casualties per
year. Although 125 countries have laws that penalize domestic violence:
 Up to 70% of women continue to be targeted for physical and/or sexual violence in their
lifetime.
 Some 603 million women live in countries where domestic violence is still not a crime.
 The Global Status Report on Violence Prevention 2014 reports that in the 133 countries
surveyed (representing 88% of the world's population):
o 25% of children have been physically abused.
o 20% of girls have been sexually abused.
o 33% of women have been a victim of physical violence at some point in their
lifetime.
 WHO reports that:
o 35% of women have experienced physical and/or sexual violence in their lifetime.
o 38% of all murders of women are committed by intimate partners.
These are the most under-reported crimes worldwide, continuing to be perpetrated with
impunity. The UN initiative COMMIT aims to encourage countries to adopt new policies to
protect victims. The UN Trust Fund to End Violence against Women has awarded $103 million
to 393 initiatives in 136 countries and territories since its inception and is currently supporting 86
programs in 71 countries with a value of $55.1 million.
Resolution 1325 protects women in wartime and their active participation in peace-building,
as do the 15% of UN post-conflict budgets allocated to women. However, the UN warns about
the increased use of violence against women as a weapon and, lately, an increased use of women
and children in suicide attacks. UNICEF reports that in Nigeria, at least 75% of the suicide
attacks are thought to have been carried out by women and children, with their number rising—
27 incidents in 2015 reported by mid-May, compared with a total of 26 incidents in 2014.
Additionally, the atrocities against women carried out by Boko Haram in Nigeria and
neighboring countries, as well as by other Islamist extremists around the world (stoning, jailing,
acid, and other attacks) and the application of the archaic Sharia law continue with impunity.
Sexualized violence is even more frequent in countries at war or in a post-conflict period,
perpetrated by armed forces and rebel groups and militants but also by intimate partners. One of
the most effective ways to reduce violence and discrimination against women while also building
lasting peace would be to have more women involved in peace-building negotiations and foreign
aid administration.
Potential instruments:
 A panoply of international treaties and dedicated UN organizations are vigorously
advancing women’s rights, but more needs to be done for enforcement.
 Infringements on women's rights should be subject to prosecution and international
sanctions, while aid programs should be conditioned by respect for gender equity.

 School systems should consider teaching martial arts and other forms of self-defense in
physical education classes for girls, not only for self-defense but also as a deterrence
policy.
 Mothers should use their educational role in the family to assertively nurture gender
equality.
 Traditional media should refrain from gender stereotyping, and women should be better
represented in journalism's top management positions.
 Use of mobile-phone and Internet-based sites that are increasingly raising global
awareness of violence against women should be encouraged and paid more attention to
by lawmakers and law enforcement organizations. Apps are being created to report
violence, create alerts, plot rape maps, and handle calls for help (e.g., Safecity, Women
Under Siege Project, and Harass Map). A global survey shows that mobile phones make
93% of women feel safer and 85% more independent, while for 41% they increased
economic opportunities.
A recent Millennium Project study on changing stereotypes concluded that slow but massive
shifts in gender stereotypes will occur over the next few decades. (See "Changing Gender
Stereotypes" in Research section.)
Measure progress: Challenge 11 will be addressed seriously when gender-discriminatory
laws are gone, when discrimination and violence against women are prosecuted, when the goal
of at least 30% women's representation in national legislatures is achieved in all countries, and
when development strategies include gender equity throughout all sectors.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma of South Africa became the first woman
Chairperson of the African Union Commission. In sub-Saharan Africa, female representation is
22.2% in legislatures, while Rwanda has a women-majority parliament. Three sub-Saharan
African countries are ranked among the top 20 by the 2014 Global Gender Gap Index: Rwanda
(7th), Burundi (17th), and South Africa (18th), and 13 out of the 28 countries assessed have closed
over 70% of the gender gap. This is mainly due to the increased participation of women in the
workforce, although generally these are in low-skilled and low-paying jobs. ILO notes that
women have a nearly 85% likelihood of being in vulnerable employment versus 70% for men.
Adult female labor force participation is expected to slightly increase from almost 72% in 2014
to 72.4% in 2018 yet will still be lower than men's rate, which is estimated at 87.7% in 2014 and
almost 89% in 2018. ActionAid shows that closing the wage and employment gender gaps would
mean a 121% income increase for women, valued at some $0.7 trillion. Although women
represent 52% of the agricultural labor force, they have little or no land ownership and are
further affected by increased land-grabbing by foreign companies or countries. Low levels of
education and qualification make it very difficult for the region as a whole and for women
specifically to escape the poverty vulnerability cycle.

Presently, the average fertility rate in the region is 5.1 children, which is not expected to drop
below 3 by mid-century. With 55% of the about 800 maternal deaths per day occurring in sub-
Saharan Africa, the region has the world’s highest maternal mortality, with some countries' rates
as high as 1,000 deaths per 100,000 live births. In Kenya, every two hours a woman dies in
childbirth—4,400 deaths per year, most of them preventable. According to Save the Children,
Niger is the worst country in which to be a mother. UNICEF reports that 1 in 11 children born in
sub-Saharan Africa dies before the age of 5.
Violence against women is widespread and in most cases unreported. In South Africa, there
are an estimated 60,000 cases of sexual assault per year. Rape and sexual assaults are even more
acute in the conflict-torn zones, mostly the DRC, Sudan, and Nigeria (with Boko Haran) and the
neighboring areas, where sexual violence is used as a weapon and continues with impunity. In
some Muslim communities, mostly in Egypt and Uganda, FGM/C is still practiced, despite
increased international opposition. Improved education systems and investments in paid-job
opportunities (mainly for the youth), increased social spending (in some countries, only 4–6% of
the GDP is allocated to social protection benefits), improved infrastructure systems—mainly
water, sanitation, and electricity—and enforcement of gender-equity regulations are some of the
basic changes needed to improve the status of women in Africa.
Middle East and North Africa: Women’s rights in the MENA region remain critical and even
worsening in some countries with the rise of religious extremism and expanded enforcement of
Sharia law. All countries in the region (except for Israel) are ranked among the worst 20 by the
Global Gender Gap Index 2014. Eleven countries have closed less than 50% of their economic
participation and opportunity gaps, while ActionAid estimates that closing the wage and
employment gaps would mean an income gain for women of over 366% (the highest by far of
any of the other regions), valued at some $1.1 trillion. ILO notes that the region's women are
much more likely than men to be in vulnerable employment—at a rate of 55% versus 32% in
North Africa and 42% versus 27% for men in the Middle East. Female representation in
legislatures remains the lowest in the world, with 10 countries closing less than 10% of the
political empowerment gender gap; Qatar and Yemen have no women parliamentarians at all,
and Kuwait and Oman have only one each. Iran, ranked 137th by the GGGI, although with a
good health and education attainment score, has relatively low economic and poor political
participation of women; only 9 out of 290 parliamentarians are women, but there are efforts to
introduce a 30% quota from 2016. Segregation in Saudi Arabia continues; it is ranked 134th by
the GGGI.
Stoning to death is still used as a legal form of punishment for "adultery" in several Muslim
countries, and the purdah (female seclusion) and namus ("virtue") customs persist in many Arab
regions. Sexual harassment, rape, and sexual violence by ISIL and other extremist groups and
security forces across the region has reached intolerable levels. More than 125 million girls and
women have been victims of genital mutilation/cutting in Africa and the Middle East, where the
practice is concentrated. However, these are increasingly being challenged by empowered

women, the outcry of the global society, and women-rights icons such as Malala Yousafzai. In
the Arab MENA region, philosophical, ethnic, and ethical assumptions have to change in order
to make possible the structural transformations needed to improve the status of women. The
international community could use sanctions and conditioned-aid, conditioned-partnership in
international organizations, and business partnerships to help accelerate the long-due change.
Israel (ranked 65) is the best performing country in the region and has closed over 70% of the
gender gap.
Asia and Oceania: High incomes and education levels in countries like Japan are starting to
challenge old family structures. Japan set the goal of increasing the share of women in senior
leadership positions from the current 9% to 30% by 2020, considering that its GDP could grow
by 16% if women participated in the economy equally to men. Together with South Korea
(where women hold 10% of leadership positions), they launched the Gender Parity Task Force to
improve women's career opportunities. Per the Global Gender Gap, Japan ranks 104th and South
Korea 117th. The region's best performers are the Philippines—ranked 9th—followed by New
Zealand (13th) and Australia (24th), while the worst performers are Iran (137th) and Pakistan
(141st). The East Asia and Pacific region has nearly closed enrolment gaps between girls and
boys in primary, secondary, and tertiary education, with girls even outperforming boys in some
countries. However, in South Asia, only Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have reached gender parity in
primary school education, reports UNESCO.
Although all countries of South Asia have ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All
Forms of Discrimination Against Women, UNDP reports that gender inequality causes a 60.1%
loss in human development in the region, while ActionAid estimates that closing the wage and
employment gaps would mean a 73% income gain, valued at some $4.3 trillion. WHO notes that
about 30% of the world's maternal deaths occur in this region, the second highest globally.
Mainly due to the dual legal civil and religious systems in many parts of Asia, early and forced
marriage, violence, discrimination with respect to inheritance and land ownership, dowry issues,
and honor killings continue to be prevalent and unpunished. In Afghanistan, the criminal law
prevents prosecutions for domestic violence and forced and child marriage, and there were calls
to overturn the Law on Elimination of Violence Against Women for being counter to Islam. The
project “Engaging Young Men through Social Media for the Prevention of Violence against
Women” aims to end gender-based violence in Asia and the Pacific by using social media.
Son bias continues to be of concern in many countries of the region; India's 2011 census
found a child sex-ratio of only 914 females for 1,000 males. India is ranked 114th by the GGGI,
but with more than a million Indian women now members of panchayats (local village councils),
unethical practices against women are expected to change. China's one-child policy worked to
reduce the fertility rate, but there are now discussions that it be changed to a nationwide two-
children policy.
Female representation in legislatures is 18.5% for Asia and 15.7% for the Pacific. After
adopting the political quota system, the share of women in the parliaments of Central Asian

countries increased from none to over 20%, although they still have to struggle with the
reminiscent patriarchal structures.
Europe: Gender parity is an important part of the structural changes in Europe. The highest
gender gap is in politics, on average at 80%; women represent 35.2% of the members of the
European Parliament, but only 8 of the 28 commissioners are women. The Nordic countries—
Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark—are ranked highest by the 2014 Global
Gender Gap, having closed their gender gap by 80–86%. At the end of 2014, across the EU,
women accounted for 28% of the seats in national parliaments. Although Poland has passed a
law that requires at least 35% of local candidates in general elections to be female, the rate of
women in the Parliament after the last election is 24%. The interinstitutional women's caucus
launched in December 2014 is supposed to address the gap by promoting gender equality in the
EU institutions. Women's share of board seats in the largest publicly listed companies in the EU-
28 is 20.2% (up from 11.9% in 2010); in four countries—France, Latvia, Finland, and Sweden—
they account for at least 25% of the board members. A draft EU directive voted by the
Parliament in 2013 requires publicly listed companies to have 40% of each sex on their board by
2020. In the UK, only 14% of SMEs are led by women, and the Aspire Fund was set up to
support female business initiatives. A campaign has begun in Germany to get women in 30% of
the management positions in journalism by 2017.
In the EU, women represent 60% of university graduates, and in 2012 on average 83% of
women reached upper secondary school, compared with 77.5% of men. However, women earn
on average 16% less per hour than men for the same work, or even 31% less per year, since
32.6% of women are part-time workers. This also affects old-age living standards, with 23% of
women aged 65 and over being at risk of poverty, versus 17% of men. Nevertheless, Europe has
the best social policies, including child care, maternity leave, and health care.
Violence against women remains a concern, with some 33% of women in the EU having
experienced physical and/or sexual violence since the age of 15, and some 10% of women
complaining of sexual harassment or stalking through new technologies.
Turkey, which aspires to join the EU, has yet to address its gender gap; women representation in
its parliament is at only 14%, it is ranked 125th by the GGGI, and it has a large gender income
gap (estimated income for females being $10,501 versus $26,893 for males.) In Russia, a draft
law proposes that at least 30% of parliamentary seats should be occupied by women (compared
with the present 13.6%), as well as providing opportunities for men to play a greater role in
family life.
Latin America: Women's participation in Latin American parliaments has improved due to the
introduction of quotas in many countries. Some of the most successful countries in the region—
Argentina, Brazil, and Chile—elected female heads of state. Of the Central American Parliament,
21.6% are women. In Mexico, 38% of the Chamber of Deputies are women, and the President's
reform initiative includes that 50% of all political parties' candidates for popular positions should

be women. The 2014 Global Gender Gap indicates that 14 of the 26 countries in the region have
closed over 70% of the gender gap, with Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Cuba being the region's
highest ranked, while Guatemala, Belize, and Suriname are the lowest ranked.
More women than men attain tertiary education across the region, but wage discrepancies
persist and the female labor participation rate is just over 50%, compared with 80% for men;
similarly, unemployment rates for women are over 8% compared with around 5% for men.
ActionAid shows that closing the wage and employment gender gap would mean an income
increase for women of almost 95%, valued at some $1.7 trillion. Despite economic and political
progress, women’s well-being continues to be hindered by the machismo structures. Women are
victims of organized crime in various forms, but they also represent an increasingly important
force fighting it. Rural and indigenous women work at least 16 hours a day, mostly not paid. As
a result of restrictive legislation, one in three maternal deaths is due to abortion, and the lifetime
risk of maternal death is 0.4%. Femicide is a regional problem; thousands of women are killed by
their husbands and relatives in Latin America with impunity.
North America: In about 10% of dual-earning households in the U.S. and 33% in Canada,
women earn more than their partners. Women lead a third of the Canadian SMEs. More women
are graduating from universities than men in North America, and their number in senior manager
positions is increasing. A survey of some 338 companies shows that in 2014 women CEOs in
these companies (found in 17 out of the 338) had a median pay of $15.9 million, compared with
their male counterparts' median salary of $10.4 million. On average, women earn 77% of what
men earn for comparable work, a wage gap that increases to 64% for African-American women
and 56% for Latina women compared with white men. Based on the past half-century progress,
the Institute for Women’s Policy Research estimates that in the U.S. the national wage gap will
close around year 2058, although with significant differences among states—varying from the
year 2038 in Florida to year 2159 in Wyoming. An analysis by the IWPR shows that if women
were compensated at an equal level with men, the poverty rate among working women would
fall from 8.1% to 3.9%, and the country's GDP could rise by about 3%. The Paycheck Fairness
Act—a bill not yet approved—aims to counter gender-based pay discrimination.
Women’s representation in U.S. legislatures is only 19.4%; in Canada, the rate is 25.2%, and
three of its provincial Premiers are women. Both the U.S. and Canadian governments made
critical cuts in domestic and international family planning programs for women.
The U.S. is among the countries with the costliest childbirth, most expensive day care, and
shortest parental leave (in 2012, only 11% of private sector workers had access to paid family
leave). These are even more critical as the share of one-parent families in the U.S. increased
from 7.4% in 1950 to 32% by 2013 (almost 60% for African-Americans); over 50% of births to
women younger than 30 occur outside marriage, and an estimated 4 million women and children
of low-income single mothers are jobless and without financial aid. Canada provides a year of
paid maternity leave but has yet to adopt adequate family supports such as affordable child care
and sick days. More than 40% of new parents surveyed said they could not afford maternity

leave, and 81% of those who took the leave and returned to work would have stayed longer if
they could have afforded it. The share of employed mothers with children aged 6 and over
increased from 46% in 1976 to almost 80% by 2012, while women with children earn, on
average, 12% less than women without children.
In the U.S., violence against women was reduced by 55% since the passage of the Violence
Against Women Act in 1994.

Global Challenge 12. How can transnational organized crime networks be

stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
Transnational organized crime is estimated to get twice the income of all military budgets
combined per year. Distinctions among organized crime, insurgency, and terrorism have begun
to blur, giving new markets for organized crime and increasing threats to democracies,
development, and scrutiny. The world has started to wake up to the enormity of this evolving
phenomenon, but it has yet to adopt a global integrated strategy to counter organized crime as a
complex set of systems. However, the new INTERPOL Global Complex for Innovation that
opened in April 2015 in Singapore might address this need. The IGCI is a global center for
policy, research, training for the identification of crimes and criminals, operational support, and
partnerships.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime has called on all states to develop national strategies to
counter TOC as a whole, which can provide input to the development and implementation of

global strategy and coordination; its periodic regional reports are an invaluable source of
information on the worldwide fight against TOC. However, UNODC notes that states are not
seriously implementing the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which is the
main international instrument to counter organized crime. UNODC, with other agencies, has
founded the International Anti-Corruption Academy, near Vienna; one of its goals is to tackle the
connection of TOC and corruption. That combination, allowing government decisions to be
bought and sold like heroin, makes democracy an illusion.
Havocscope.com estimates the total black market value of 91 of the world's 196 countries at
$1.8 trillion per year. Among their total estimates for those countries are $339 billion for illegal
drugs, $200 billion for counterfeit drugs, $186 billion for prostitution, and $334 billion for
counterfeit products. The economic costs of environmental damage due to illegal logging, gem
mining, hazardous waste dumping, and other environmental impacts are not yet included in the
big picture of organized crime's impacts. The World Bank estimates bribery, often linked to TOC,
at $1–1.6 trillion per year. A CSIS/McAfee study estimates the loss to global economy from
cybercrime and cyberespionage, which often has ties to transnational organized crime, at $375–
575 billion per year, others have estimated it at $2 trillion per year. Hence, adding up all sources,
which does not include extortion, the total organized crime income could be more than $3
trillion—about twice as big as all the military budgets in the world and 20 times more than all
overseas development assistance in 2014. UNODC and UNESCO are considering the destruction
of priceless historical sites by ISIL as a form of organized crime.
Developing countries lose 10 times more money through fraud, corruption, and shady
business transactions than they receive from development assistance says a report from Global
Financial Integrity. IGFI found that developing countries lost $946.7 billion in 2011, an increase
of 13.7% from the previous year. It has become clear that anti-TOC programs must be part of
any country’s development plan.
The UN Global Commission on Drug Policy concluded that the law enforcement of the “War
on Drugs” has failed and cost the U.S. $2.5 trillion over 40 years. It recommends a “paradigm
shift” to public health over criminalization. Some political leaders support decriminalization of
drugs as a potential strategy to take some of the money out of TOC. There are an estimated 272
million drug users worldwide, with 250,000 deaths annually. A major complicating factor in the
drug situation is the rapidly growing popularity of "new psychoactive substances."
The Commercial Crime Services of the International Chamber of Commerce helps track and
combat all forms of commercial crime. Together with the IMO and the navies of major powers,
they are working to fight piracy and armed robbery. Although piracy fell dramatically along the
east coast of Africa during 2011–13 and is an international cooperation success study, worldwide
piracy and armed robbery at sea rose by 26% in 2014, the highest since 2011.
There are more slaves today than at the peak of the African slave trade. Estimates range from
12 million to 30 million people being held in slavery today, with the vast majority in Asia. An
estimated 2–4 million persons are sold into slavery per year; UNODC states that 79% of
trafficked persons are for sexual exploitation. Smuggling of migrants is a profitable TOC

enterprise; two of the principal smuggling routes—from East, North, and West Africa to Europe
and from South America to North America—are estimated to generate about $6.75 billion
annually.
The transition of much of the world’s activities to the Internet and mobile phones has opened
up a wealth of opportunities for TOC to profitably expand its activities from drugs and human
trafficking to cybercrime, affecting all aspects of personal and business life. The online market in
illegally obtained data and tools for committing data theft and other cybercrimes continues to
grow, and criminal organizations are offering online hosting of illegal applications. The financial
crisis and the bankruptcy of financial institutions have opened new infiltration routes for TOC.
INTERPOL has noted the experts’ warning that the cost of cybercrime is larger than the
combined costs of cocaine, marijuana, and heroin trafficking. International financial transfers via
computers of over $5 trillion per day make tempting targets for international cybercriminals. The
International Carder’s Alliance, a confederation of online criminals, is based mostly in Eastern
Europe, the heart of cybercrime, which the FBI estimates costs U.S. businesses and consumers
billions annually in lost revenue.
UNODC is developing a cybercrime database with three sections: case law, legislation, and
lessons learned, organized by countries. It has also launched a new global awareness-raising
campaign and published a Global Report on Trafficking in Persons updating the trends from its
2009 data and providing guidance as to what remains to be done.
There should be an international treaty against tax havens and accounts with anonymous
beneficiaries, with enforcement mechanisms that include collective sanctions imposed on the
relevant banks and countries. Undisclosed funds should be confiscated and made available to a
development fund and to finance the fight against TOC.
It is time for an international campaign by all sectors of society to develop a global consensus
that an effective global strategy is needed to counter TOC. OECD’s Financial Action Task Force
has made 40 good recommendations to counter money laundering; however, the impact of these
recommendations is not clear. Two conventions help bring some coherence to addressing TOC:
the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, which came into force in 2003, and
the Council of Europe’s Convention on Laundering, which came into force in May 2008. A
financial prosecution system could be established as a new body to complement the related
organizations addressing various parts of TOC today. In cooperation with these organizations,
the new system would identify and establish priorities on top criminal groups (defined by the
amount of money laundered) to be prosecuted one at a time. It would prepare legal cases,
identify suspects’ assets that can be frozen, establish the current location of the suspects, assess
the local authorities’ ability to make an arrest, and send the case to one of a number of
preselected courts.
Such courts, like UN peacekeeping forces, could be established and trained, and then be
ready for instant duty. When investigations are complete, arrest orders would be executed to
apprehend the criminal(s), freeze access to their assets, open the court case, and then proceed to
the next TOC group on the priority list. Prosecution would be outside the accused's country.

Although extradition is accepted by the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime,

a new protocol would be necessary for courts to be deputized like military forces for UN
peacekeeping. Each time a court would be needed, it could be selected via a lottery system
among volunteering countries. After initial government funding, the system would receive its
financial support from frozen assets of convicted criminals rather than depending on government
contributions, which could be subject to bribery by organized crime. Countries that made the
arrests and courts that prosecuted the cases would receive reimbursements from the frozen assets.
Challenge 12 will be addressed seriously when money laundering and crime income sources
drop by 75% from their peak.
Africa: The income from foreign aid to Africa and its losses from organized crime over the last
50 years are about the same—$1 trillion. Each year since 2000 Africa loses over $50 billion to
illicit financial flows. Hundreds of billions of dollars are siphoned out of the continent through
money laundering and industrial-scale corporate tax avoidance. Over 15 million AIDS orphans
in sub-Saharan Africa, with few legal means to make a living, constitute a gigantic pool of new
talent for the future of organized crime. ECOWAS is working with West African governments to
improve coordinated implementation of counter-crime strategies. The Brazzaville Declaration
signed by six Central African countries and related organizations pledges to counter illegal
logging in the Congo Basin rain forest, which is losing cover at a net rate of 700,000 ha per year.
An estimated 1,215 rhinos were poached in South Africa in 2014, in a market valued at $60–200
million yearly, along with 360 great apes in Africa and Asia. Some experts are saying that the
only solution is to completely ban trading in ivory. A UNEP official estimates the world wildlife
illegal income to be at least $213 billion annually. The Kofi Annan Foundation held an expert
meeting on The Impact of Organized Crime and Drug Trafficking on Governance, Development
& Security in West Africa, with the summary of the proceedings available online. The increased
production and trade with qat (khat), which is legal in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen, is
of growing concern to international organizations.
East Africa piracy has been dramatically reduced; as of 27 February 2015 no major vessels
were being held for ransom. There were 15 incidents off Somalia in 2013 compared with 75 in
2012, and 237 in 2011. However, piracy on the coast of West Africa continues to be a problem,
with 51 attacks in 2013. In September 2013, an INTERPOL operation in Ethiopia and Uganda
resulted in the arrest of 53 persons, the liberation of more than 300 trafficking victims, and the
identification of a large number of illegal immigrants. Nigeria, jointly with UNODC and the EU,
has launched a nationwide three-year anti-human trafficking campaign. There are reports of
males being trafficked from Kenya to the Gulf States as sex slaves. Kenya is starting a project to
implant tracking chips in the horns of more than 1,000 rhinos, to stem an epidemic of wildlife
poaching, a crime that is a severe problem in much of the continent as it supplies Asian markets

with rhino horns and other animal parts. Corruption remains one of the most serious
impediments to fighting organized crime in most African countries.
Asia and Oceania: Asia continues to have the greatest number of slaves. The ILO reports that
59% of human trafficking happens in Asia and the Middle East. China has 13% of the value of
global illegal markets, the second largest in the world at $261 billion. The world's worst drug
addiction rate, more than 2%, is in Iran, which is spending $1 billion per year on
countermeasures. UNODC estimates that the annual income to all those involved in the Afghan
drug trade totals close to $3 billion, with the largest share going to the traffickers, and predicts
the trade will increase. A UN/World Bank opinion is that the Afghan opium problem will take
decades to eliminate.
China is the main source for counterfeit goods sent to the EU. The relative deficit of females
in China is leading to their being trafficked in from adjoining countries for marriage. India is a
major producer of counterfeit medicines. North Korea is perceived as an organized crime state
backed up by nuclear weapons, involved in illegal trade in weapons, counterfeit currency, sex
slavery, drugs, and a range of counterfeit items. Myanmar is accused of deporting migrants to
Thailand and Malaysia, where they are exploited, and has reportedly become a center for the
ivory trade and elephant smuggling. There is a thriving illegal international trade in human
organs bought from very poor people and sold to very rich ones.
China and Myanmar remain the primary sources of amphetamine-type stimulants in Asia, the
top illicit drug threat in the area, although there are indications that TOC may be targeting the
area's huge and largely untapped cocaine market. Laos had almost eliminated opium production,
but the problem has now returned. Opium cultivation in Myanmar increased by 13% in 2013,
marking the seventh consecutive yearly increase. The country’s highly regarded product
(especially in China) is rapidly overtaking Afghanistan’s output. UNODC and five countries of
Central Asia committed $70 billion between 2015 and 2019 to counter organized crime. The
PATROL project, funded by Australia and the U.S., seeks to improve border security at land
borders, seaports, and airports by working with frontline officers in China and all the countries of
Southeast Asia. The Tri-Border Initiative protects the vital seaways between Indonesia, Malaysia,
and the Philippines against piracy, but piracy is reportedly returning to the Malacca Strait.
A report says Australia has a multi-billion-dollar drug enterprise, and Australians are among
the world’s highest per capita consumers of illicit stimulants.
Large tracts of land in Fiji are believed to have been bought up by the Russian Mafia.
Europe: Europol has published the EU Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment, a
systematic analysis of law enforcement information on criminal activities and groups affecting
the EU. The report estimates that there are 3,600 active organized crime groups in the EU, 70%
of which are composed of multiple nationalities, and that counterfeiting, substandard products,
and cybercrimes are growing. There is a tendency for gangs to be replaced by individual criminal
enterprises. The main illicit markets in the EU generate around 110 billion euros each year. Use

of cocaine in Europe has peaked, possibly due to the recession. SOCTA 2013 is designed to
assist strategic decision-makers in the prioritization of organized crime threats. Further, the
European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction is an agency of the EU and publishes
an annual European Drug Report. Europol is also funding a new European Cybercrime Centre to
provide technical, analytic, and forensic help in investigations. The EC has adopted the EU
Strategy towards the Eradication of Trafficking in Human Beings 2012–2016.
The UK’s Serious Organized Crime Agency Annual Plan 2012/13 stressed flexibility in its
first national integrated strategy, Local to Global, but did not stress anticipation; however, it
created the National Crime Agency, which continues to operate under the same principles.
Organized crime costs the UK £20–40 billion a year and has 38,000 known individuals as part of
6,000 gangs.
The EU has strengthened controls on money transfers across its borders to address trafficking
and money laundering, especially in Eastern Europe. The 2007 accession of Bulgaria and
Romania has made trafficking of women from those countries easier. In 2012 an INTERPOL-led
operation against illicit goods trafficking in Eastern Europe rounded up more than 1,400
individuals and seized 7.3 million illegally trafficked goods.
The U.S. State Department has placed Russia, China, and Uzbekistan in the lowest level in
the ranking of countries on their anti-human-trafficking performance. Russian officials have
declared the drug situation in that country “apocalyptic,” but the Financial Action Task Force has
moved Russia up a level in its evaluation of countries' combating of illegal financial transactions,
putting it higher than the U.S. and Japan in that regard. Russia has enacted a tough new anti-poaching
law, making it a crime to simply possess any endangered species material. Unfortunately, the
country has an estimated 2.5 million drug addicts, 70,000 of whom die in a year, largely because
of a serious lack of treatment facilities.
Latin America: Because Mexico and Colombia are succeeding against organized crime,
criminals are migrating to other countries in Latin America. Large numbers of children are
fleeing drug wars in Central America to cross into the U.S. More than 60,000 people were killed
in Mexican drug violence in 2006–12, and 2,200 deaths were reported in December 2012–
January 2013. Mexico’s cartels receive more money (an estimated $25–40 billion) from
smuggling drugs to the U.S. than Mexico earns from oil exports. Mexican drug cartels are
rapidly moving south, into Central America, and are branching out, with La Familia exporting
$42 million worth of stolen iron ore from Michoacán in a year. Heavy police crackdowns in El
Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras have only made the gangs better organized and more violent.
UNODC says crime is the single largest issue impeding Central American stability. Some
Latin American countries say it is time to legalize drugs, considering the costs/benefits and as a
strategy to curb gang violence. Drug purveyor is often the only cash job available to a young
person in Latin America. Colombia’s government passed a bill for decriminalizing the
cultivation of “drug plants,” while drug processing and trafficking remain criminal. Uruguay
became the first country in the world to legalize marijuana. The OAS has held discussions

around changing drug laws, calling for drugs to be treated as a public health issue, judicial
reforms, and recognizing that TOC is a major factor in the region's drug issues. These are part of
Latin America’s strategy for curbing drug trafficking. Brazil has instituted a $2.2 billion plan to
combat crack trafficking and abuse nationwide, and UNODC and the federal government have
begun a program to promote protective family relationships. The drug gangs have largely
replaced the paramilitaries. Ecuador has become an important drug route, with its drug trade
being controlled by foreign organizations. Mexican cartels control cocaine production in Peru,
generating more than $22 billion per year. While cocaine production is down 12% in Bolivia and
25% in Colombia, Peru became the world's top cocaine-producing nation.
The “war on drugs” in Latin America is hindered by the lack of a joint strategy among the
governments of North and Latin America. It is also complicated by Latin America's being a
major locale for the phenomenon of "criminal diaspora"—criminals being driven to adjoining
countries by law enforcement or seeing more opportunities for profit in the territory just over the
border. The UNODC report Transnational Organized Crime in Central America and the
Caribbean: A Threat Assessment presents some mechanics of illicit trafficking and its potential
impacts on governance and development of the region.
The Caribbean has 27% of the world’s murders, including gang-related killings, with only
8.5% of world’s population.
North America: The FBI closed down the original online illegal drug market, Silk Road, in
2013.The Obama administration issued its Strategy to Combat Transnational Organized Crime to
bring more national coherence to a counter-organized-crime strategy. The Transnational
Organized Crime Rewards Program authorizes the Secretary of State to give rewards for actions
that help dismantle transnational criminal organizations, identify or locate key leaders, disrupt
financial mechanisms, and lead to the arrest or conviction of members and leaders. The U.S. has
a third of the world’s illegal market value at $625.6 billion. The International Organized Crime
Intelligence and Operations Center integrates U.S. efforts to combat international organized
crime and coordinates investigations and prosecutions. Drug criminal gangs have swelled in the
U.S. to an estimated 1 million members, responsible for up to 80% of crimes in communities
across the nation. Organized crime and its relationship to terrorism should be treated as a
national security threat.
Canada continues as a major producer and shipper of methamphetamines and ecstasy. A
nationwide poll found that 66% of Canadians support decriminalization of marijuana possession
in small amounts, an idea also endorsed by some main political parties. Colorado, Washington,
and Washington, D.C., have legalized marijuana for recreational purposes; other states are
expected to follow, creating a legal conflict between state and federal law.

Global Challenge 13. How can growing energy demands be met safely
and efficiently?
The world is in a race to make enough safe energy fast enough to meet the growing needs of an
expanding and wealthier population. The UN Secretary-General has set the goal of universal
access to electricity by 2030, which is estimated to cost $50 billion per year. By 2050, the world
needs to create enough electrical production capacity for an additional 3.5 billion people (1.3 billion
who do not have access now, plus the 2.3 billion due to population growth). There is also a
requirement to decommission aging nuclear power plants and to replace or retrofit fossil fuel
plants. About 2.6 billion people still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating, and
indoor air pollution causes nearly 2 million deaths annually. The new energy sources could well
come from a combination of green renewable sources, energy efficiencies, and improvements in
network distribution, storage systems, and distributed generation. Engineering advances have cut
the costs of renewable energy systems so that they are now matching or outperforming fossil

fuels, particularly when accounting for externalities such as the costs of environmental damage
and health. Although the majority of all new installed energy capacity now comes from
renewables, the vast majority of base-load electricity still comes from fossil carbon systems.
Innovations are accelerating:
 Drilled hot rock geothermal (several kilometers down) makes geothermal energy
available where conventional geothermal has not been possible, assuming sufficient
water is available.
 Solar farms can focus sunlight atop towers with Stirling engines and other generators.
 Concentrator photovoltaics dramatically reduce costs and desalinate water by pumping
sea water through micro-channels on the surface of the solar panel.
 Waste heat from power plants, human bodies, and microchips can generate electricity.
 Buildings are designed to produce more energy than they consume, along with other
architectural designs for energy conservation and efficiencies.
 Solar energy separates hydrogen from water.
 Microbial fuel cells generate electricity.
 Compact fluorescent light bulbs and light-emitting diodes significantly conserve energy,
which can also be done by nanotubes that conduct electricity
 Metal-air batteries are available.
 Halophytes, algae for food, and liquid fuels production are being explored.
 Improved efficiency and maintenance of wind energy generation on land, oceans, and
high altitudes are available.
 Plastic nanotech photovoltaics printed on buildings and other surfaces could cut costs and
increase efficiency.
 Aquaculture uses cyanobacteria for direct conversion of CO2 to ethanol and diesel-range alkanes.
 Unused nighttime power production is used to supply electric and plug-in hybrid cars.
Looking into the future:
 Use of genomics to create plants that produce hydrogen instead of CO2
 Low-energy nuclear reactions (related to cold fusion)
 High-altitude wind generators
 Japan's plan to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030 and China's
plan for the same by 2040
Shell forecasts global energy demand to triple by 2050 from 2000 levels, assuming that
major socioeconomic trends continue. This, they assert, will require “some combination of
extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration." BP forecasts a
37% increase in world energy demand from 2013 to 2035, of which 96% will come from
emerging economies. IEA calculates it will take $48 trillion to meet all energy needs for the
world between now and 2035, of which 90% of new demand will be in non-OECD economies.
By 2035, China is expected to consume nearly 70% more energy than the U.S., although China’s
per capita consumption remains at less than half that of the U.S. today.

Energy-related CO2 emissions in 2014 remained unchanged from the year before but were
still too high to stop at the 2°C increase in temperature target. Without major breakthroughs in
technologies and behavioral changes, the majority of the world’s energy in 2050 will still come
from fossil fuels, which receive $550 billion in subsidies per year globally. Stopping these
subsidies can save 1.6 million premature deaths globally, according to IMF, which estimates the
“true costs” of the subsidies—including health and environmental damage—to be $5.3 trillion.
Assuming that countries meet their existing commitments to reduce emissions and cut fuel
subsidies, IEA estimates that the world primary energy demand will grow by more than one-third
from 2012 to 2035, with fossil fuels accounting for over half of the increase. Emissions
associated with this scenario correspond to a long-term average global temperature increase of
3.6°C. Scenarios developed by the World Energy Council also assume fossil fuels remain
dominant in 2050.
IEA projects coal demand growing 2.1% annually through 2019. Global oil production
forecasts vary considerably, but assuming no major breakthroughs affecting oil production and
demand, IEA expects output could reach 96 million barrels per day by 2035—up from 89 million
today. Non-OECD countries have been consuming more oil than OECD countries since April
2013. The average cost of bringing a new oil well online increased 100% over the past decade.
Natural gas is considered cleaner than coal, but the natural gas industry globally was leaking 2–
4% of the gas produced between 2006 and 2011. Leakage above 3% is enough to negate the
climate benefits of natural gas over coal. Therefore, large-scale carbon capture and reuse has to
become a top priority to reduce climate change, such as using waste CO2 from coal plants to
grow algae for biofuels and food or to produce carbonate for cement. Carbon capture and
sequestration could reduce CO2 emissions in industrial applications by 4Gt if 20–40% of
facilities are equipped with CCS by 2050. IPCC estimates that the cost of climate mitigation
would increase by 138% without CCS.
There is no question that renewable sources of energy such as combinations of photovoltaics,
solar thermal, biomass, wind, and drilled geothermal can replace fossil fuels. The issue is to
agree on a focused strategy to make the changes. Over half of the new energy generation
capacity comes from renewable sources today; however, coal met 47% of new electricity
demand over the past decade. The IPCC’s best-case scenario estimates that renewable sources
could meet 77% of global energy demand by 2050, while the World Wildlife Fund claims 100%
is possible. The costs of geothermal, wind, solar, and biomass are falling. Setting a price for
carbon emissions could increase investments into non-fossil sources. If the full financial and
environmental costs for fossil fuels were considered—mining, transportation, protecting supply
lines, water for cooling, cleanups, waste storage, and so on—then renewables will be seen as far
more cost-effective than they are today. Previously, economies of scale led to concentrated
power production; however, decentralized systems with smart grids may become more cost-
effective. Changed energy regulations will be needed to encourage local decentralized power
production. The costs of fossil fuels are likely to go up with increased usage, while the costs of
renewables are going down with increased use.

Global investment in renewables rose 16% to $310 billion in 2014. Investment in solar and
wind increased 25% and 11% respectively. In seven countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Iceland,
Kenya, New Zealand, Nicaragua, and the Philippines—geothermal represents more than 10% of
electricity generation. More than 7.7 million people are now employed by the renewable energy
industry. Seven countries—China, the U.S., Germany, Spain, Italy, India, and Japan—account
for about 70% of total non-hydro renewable electric capacity worldwide. However, relying on
wind power (surface, not high-altitude) and solar (ground, not orbital) sources for base-load
electricity in mega-cities would require massive storage systems, while other sources like
geothermal, nuclear, and solar power satellites would not.
As of May 2015, a total of 443 reactors with a total capacity of 371.7 GW supplied about
12% of global electricity demand. In addition, 66 reactors are under construction, including 23 in
China, but the IAEA expects nuclear power capacity to fall 4.5–6.2% by 2030. Some 58% of
existing reactors are past the 30-year lifetime and should be decommissioned; however, fewer
than 100 plants are scheduled to be closed by 2020. Because there are still no good solutions for
the nuclear waste problem, most waste is still stored on-site at nuclear plants today. Not
including military or research reactors, 138 nuclear plants have been closed, but only 17 of these
have been fully decommissioned. The Next Generation Nuclear Plant Industry Alliance selected
a high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear concept as ensuring that no internal or external event
could lead to a release of radioactive material.
The global passenger car fleet is expected to double (reaching almost 1.7 billion) by 2035;
however, new developments in car sharing and self-driving cars may alter this forecast. Will
synthetic fuels produced from natural gas, oil shale, and/or biomass be the bridge to fully electric
cars? Mass production of fuel-flexible plug-in hybrid electric cars at competitive prices could be
a breakthrough. A six-year U.S. study to test hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles released in 2012
exceeded expectations for fuel economy, efficiency, driving range, and durability. Manufacturers
are expected to begin sales by 2016. Some argue that the transition to a hydrogen infrastructure
may be too expensive and too late to affect climate change. Options like flex-fuel plug-in hybrids
and electric and compressed air vehicles could provide alternatives to petroleum-only vehicles
sooner. National unique all-electric car programs are being implemented in Denmark and Israel,
with discussions being held in 30 other countries. The global share of biofuel in total transport
fuel could grow from 3% today to 27% in 2050. Massive saltwater irrigation along the deserted
coastlines of the world can produce 7,600 liters/hectare-year of biofuels via halophyte plants and
200,000 liters/hectare-year via algae and cyanobacteria instead of using less-efficient freshwater
biofuel production from corn that has catastrophic effects on food supply and prices. Nearly two-
thirds of incremental gas supply to 2035 could come from unconventional gas, primarily shale
gas. However, the process of “fracking” to get the gas may release methane to the atmosphere,
pollute groundwater from underground wells to dispose of wastewater, and trigger earthquakes.
As a result, political pressure to improve standards and insure implementation is increasing.
Japan plans to have a working space solar power system in orbit by 2030, and it succeeded in
wirelessly sending 10 kilowatts of power over a distance of 500 meters. China plans to do the

same by 2040. The LUNA RING project of Shimizu, a Japanese construction company, aims to
install solar cells around the lunar equator and transmit electricity to Earth. Such space-based
solar energy systems could meet the world’s electricity requirements indefinitely without nuclear
waste or GHG emissions. Eventually, such a system of satellites could manage base-load
electricity on a global basis, yet some say this costs too much and is not necessary, given all the
other innovations coming up.
Challenge 13 will have been addressed seriously when the total energy production from
environmentally benign processes surpasses other sources for five years in a row and when
atmospheric CO2 additions drop for at least five years.
Sub-Saharan Africa: A new $500 million "Access Infra Africa" was launched to fund
renewable energy projects across the continent. Over 70% of sub-Saharan Africa does not have
access to electricity. There are vast oil and gas reserves in Africa; but issues of governance and
corruption are slowing investments. Nigeria and Angola produce over 2 million barrels of oil per
day now, and six West African countries, plus Mozambique and South Africa, are expect to
develop reserves as well. New oil fields have been established in Ghana and Kenya. South Africa
has the fifth-largest—485 trillion cubic feet—technically recoverable shale gas, and Nigeria
produces the most natural gas today (23 billion cubic meters per year). It is estimated that 66% of
land deals are intended for biofuel production, versus 15% for food crops. Kenya plans to
increase its geothermal capacity to 5,000 megawatts by 2030. The World Bank estimates that
geothermal in East Africa's Rift Valley could power 150 million homes. The $80 billion Grand
Inga Dam could generate 40,000 MW of electricity, but the project is progressing slowly. South
Africa’s economic growth is hampered by regular power outages. Medupi Power Station, the
first new power station South Africa constructed in two decades, was scheduled to come online
in 2011, but it is now expected to be completed in 2018 or 2019. South Africa plans to more than
double its renewable energy program. The U.S. Power Africa initiative to double access to
energy across sub-Saharan Africa by 2018 might be in jeopardy, as of the $7 billion five-year
pledge, some $5 billion is slated to come from the Ex-Im Bank, whose future is not sure.
Middle East and North Africa: Chaotic geopolitics in the region and oil price fluctuations
present serious challenges for the oil and gas producers, as they struggle to maintain incomes
from exports and to continue fostering investment from international energy companies to
sustain national economic goals. Additionally, decreased demand from global markets and
competition from unconventional hydrocarbon production change the oil demand order. The
share of solar and other renewable energy sources in the region is also growing, as countries are
looking for more-effective and cleaner ways to meet energy demands. In 2014, Egypt, Jordan,
Kuwait, and Qatar joined Morocco, Algeria, and the UAE with several solar projects, for a total

of 788 MW. With new projects in 2015, the solar market is expected to grow to over 1,500 MW
over the coming year. Egypt’s Ministry of Electricity program launched in November 2014 plans
to introduce 2,000 MW large-scale solar PV power projects and 300 MW of rooftop solar power
projects; 700 MW solar projects are to be awarded in 2015, making the country the year's largest
solar market in the region. Algeria will invest $60 billion in renewable energy projects by 2030.
By 2050, some 10–25% of Europe’s electricity needs could be met by North African solar
thermal plants.
Asia and Oceania: The region's enormous population and economic growth is leading to higher
energy prices and shortages. According to the ADB, the Asia Pacific regional energy demand
could double by 2030, the region will consume 56% of the world's annual energy output by 2035,
and today there are about a billion people without electricity. India alone has 289 million people
without electricity. Nearly 2 billion people in Asia rely on biomass for cooking.
By 2030, Japan solar could reach 100GW of installed PV generation capacity, or 11.2% of
electricity demand. Japan is building a large offshore wind farm off the coast of Fukushima.
Meanwhile, Japan plans to use nuclear power to meet about one-fifth of its electricity demand by
2030 despite public opposition since the nuclear crisis in Fukushima. Corruption in the South
Korean nuclear industry is reducing that country’s long-range driving forces for nuclear power.
China plans to expand nuclear capacity threefold by 2020 and is expected to start building at
least five nuclear reactors in 2015. Wind is China's third largest source of electricity after coal
and hydropower. Renewable energy sources can meet 57% of China's electricity demand in 2030
and 86% by 2050. China's coal production decreased 2.5% in 2014, the first annual drop in more
than a decade. Yet China's annual coal consumption, at about 3.7 billion tonnes, accounts for
roughly 66% of its energy demand. To curb pollution and emissions, China plans to cut coal
consumption by over 80 million tonnes by 2017 and by more than 160 million tonnes by 2020.
India will invest $37 billion in renewable energy to add 17,000 MW of capacity by 2017.
Solar lighting is already a cost-effective option in off-grid India, even with government subsidies
on kerosene. India has 20 operating nuclear reactors and 7 in construction. Singapore plans to
increase the energy efficiency of buildings by 80% by 2030. Lao PDR aims to supply 30% of its
energy consumption from renewable sources by 2025.
Oil and gas production in the Caspian region will grow substantially by 2030; Kazakhstan
and Turkmenistan lead the growth in oil and gas, respectively.
Europe: The EU announced it plans to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 from
1990 levels and to increase both its efficiency and renewable energy sources by 27% from 1990
levels by 2030. Currently the EU has reduced emissions by 18.3% since 1990, and it is likely to
be 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. Renewable sources account for about 13% of the EU's
overall energy consumption today, and there are plans to increase that to 20% by 2020. Sweden
has the highest share of renewable energy in total consumption at 46.8% (non-EU Norway has a
higher 65%). The EU also will improve energy efficiency 30% by 2030. The new climate and

green energy targets, however, do not include legally binding national targets. Instead, member
states will have an "indicative" target of improving energy efficiency by 25% by 2030.
Conservation and efficiencies could reduce EU’s energy consumption about 30% below 2005
levels by 2050. Low-carbon technologies could provide 60% of energy by 2020 and 100% by
2050, according to the EU’s low-carbon road map. Northern Europe is expected to focus on wind,
while southern Europe will focus on solar energy. The EU plans to have 10–12 carbon capture
and storage demonstration plants in operation by 2015.
Germany and Switzerland plan to phase out nuclear energy, but shutting down Germany's
nuclear plants and building a safe disposal site for nuclear waste could cost €70 billion. Finland's
nuclear power plant estimated construction costs grew from $4.5 billion to $12 billion.
Meanwhile, Germany opened its first coal-fired power plant since 2005 and plans to build 10
more, totaling 7,985 megawatts by 2015. Poland imports more than 80% of its natural gas from
Russia, but its shale gas reserves may provide Poland with enough gas for more than 50 years.
However, there is some doubt about these numbers after test drillings and international
companies withdrew from Poland. Meanwhile, France is opposed to the extraction of shale gas,
and the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Bulgaria have suspended drilling for shale gas.
Amsterdam plans to have 10,000 electric cars by 2015. Five geothermal power plants in
Iceland meet 27% of the country’s electricity needs. In 2014, Denmark generated 39% of its
electricity from wind power; it plans to have 50% of its power from renewable energy by 2020
and 100% by 2050. Wind is now Spain's main energy source, at 21.1%, just passing nuclear at
21%, while financial constraints have forced the government to cut back on renewable energy
support, resulting in renewable energy experts leaving the government. Shale gas in Central
Europe is expected to lower energy prices there within 20 years.
Oil extraction in the Arctic offshore territories in Russia might peak at 13.5 million tons a
year over the next 20 years in the most optimistic forecasts, less than 3% of overall oil
production of Russia today. Russia signed a 30-year agreement in 2014 worth $400 billion to
deliver gas to China. Russia’s Ministry of Energy's conservative 2020 scenario forecasts a
decrease in Russia's oil production by 5–10%. Due to the U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia
and slumping oil prices, a number of joint Arctic shelf development projects have been blocked,
high-tech equipment purchases to produce tight oil have been difficult, and Western service
companies, which are difficult to replace, are abandoning the Russian market.
Latin America: The region increased its share of the world's clean energy investments from
5.7% in 2011 to 6% in 2012. The rapid expansion of Mexico’s natural gas transportation network
will increase efficiency and reduce its carbon footprint. Mexico has also created regulatory
instruments to increase investments in renewables and increase their contribution from 20% to
34.6% of Mexico’s energy use by 2018.
Brazil has been the cheapest biofuel producer for years, but it is losing its competitiveness
due to its currency’s rise against the dollar and the high price of sugar. Brazil imported 70
million liters of U.S. ethanol in 2010, up from just 1 million in 2009. Its first commercial-scale

plant of second-generation biofuel (cellulosic ethanol) has started production in December 2013.
Some 90% of the automobiles produced in Brazil are flex-fuel. Corruption and mismanagement
have delayed Petrobras's development of Brazil's major off-shore "pre-salt" oil deposits.
Argentina is the world’s second largest producer of biodiesel, with 13.1% of the market.
Ecuador announced that it would refrain from drilling for oil in the Amazon rainforest
reserve in return for up to $3.6 billion in payments from industrial countries. Venezuela’s
Orinoco heavy oil reserves (requiring advanced production technology) are larger than Saudi
Arabia’s reserves. Peru is promoting the use of natural gas from its new reserves discovered in
the Camisea field. Cuba plans to increase its renewable energy production by 12% by 2020.The
Spanish-owned electric grid company was nationalized in Bolivia.
Geothermal, solar, and wind are vast untapped resources for the region, as are gains from
efficiencies.
North America: Wind power generated 4.4% of all the electricity in the U.S. in 2014, and it
provided more than 15% of electricity in seven states. The world’s largest solar thermal power
plant started operation in California's Mojave Desert, and Tesla's $3,500 lithium-ion storage
battery to save surplus electricity can help expand the application of rooftop solar energy. The
U.S. EPA proposed the Clean Power Plan, which would require states to reduce carbon
emissions from existing power plants to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S.
oil usage fell 8.5% from 2005 to 2014 while its oil production increased by 16.2% during 2014,
reaching 8.7 million barrels per day. The DOE forecasts U.S. natural gas to pass coal as an
energy source to produce electricity by 2035, with nearly half of the production coming from
shale gas. Some190 of 523 coal-fired power plants in the U.S. have recently closed or plan to
close. The U.S. Geological Survey says human-made earthquakes linked to fracking have been
on the rise, leading several states, including New York, to impose a ban or moratorium on fracking.
Meanwhile, Texas passed a bill that denies its cities the right to impose fracking bans. California
oil producers used nearly 70 million gallons of water for fracking last year. Canada has the second
largest oil reserves in the world but they are also among the most environmentally damaging.
Lesser-known potential clean energy sources in the U.S. include high-altitude wind off the
East Coast, ocean thermal energy conversion in the Gulf Stream, solar thermal in the Midwest
(Four Corners, Colorado), drilled hot rock geothermal, and nano-photovoltaics. Algae farms for
biofuel may cost $46.2 billion per year to replace oil imports. It is estimated that recycling waste
heat from nuclear power plants to home air conditioners and recycling body heat to recharge
batteries could reduce CO2 by 10–20% in the U.S.
California requires oil refineries and importers of motor fuels to reduce the carbon intensity of
their products by 10% by 2020. San Francisco’s Mayor called for the city to go 100% renewable
by 2020. Pacific Gas & Electric Company of California agreed to buy 200 megawatts of space-
based solar power from Solaren; the power was to be provided from space starting from 2016,
according to the original contract in 2009, but lack of funding has delayed implementation.

Global Challenge 14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs

be accelerated to improve the human condition?
Computational chemistry, computational biology, and computational physics are changing the
nature and speed of new scientific insights and technological applications. This speed is
accelerating, as its use of computers is accelerated by Moore’s Law. This will be further
accelerated with future forms of artificial intelligence and the advent of quantum computing.
IBM has created a qubit circuit building block for chips for quantum computers; MIT can direct
a single photon on an optical chip; D-Wave plans to release a quantum processor with more than
1,000 qubits, and qubits have been embedded into nanowires—all important steps toward the
development of quantum computers. Hence quantum computing could be in our foreseeable
future. In addition to computational science and quantum computing, future synergies among
synthetic biology, 3D and 4D printing, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, tele-

everything, drones, falling costs of renewable energy systems, augmented reality, and collective
intelligence systems will make the last 25 years seem slow compared with the volume of change
over the next 25 years. The continued acceleration of S&T is fundamentally changing what is
possible.
Progress in atomically precise fabrication in the molecular sciences is laying the foundations
for building machines that can guide the assembly of molecular building blocks. This is a step on
the way to high-throughput atomically precise manufacturing that could bring a revolution to
physical production as profound as the revolution in information technologies brought by today’s
nanoelectronic computer chip technologies.
Chinese scientists have altered the genome of a human embryo, robots staff a hotel in Japan,
a zero-fuel solar plane is flying (with stops) around the world, scanning electron microscopes can
see 0.01 nanometers (the distance between a hydrogen nucleus and its electron), and the Hubble
telescope has seen 13.2 billion light-years away. Photons have been slowed and accelerated.
External light has been concentrated inside the body for photodynamic therapy and powering
implanted devices. DNA scans open the possibility of customized medicine and the elimination
of hereditary diseases. MRI brain imaging shows primitive pictures of real-time thought
processes. Paralyzed people have controlled computers with their thoughts alone, and will
eventually control robots as well. Elementary brain-to-brain communications have been
demonstrated: thought in one brain electronically transferred to another caused physical response
of the second person. Scientists have delayed the aging process in mice by restoring intra-cell
molecular communications. Undreamed thousands of new life forms are likely to be invented by
synthetic biology for everything from clearing water pollution to eating plaque in the brain.
Access to this knowledge is becoming universally available, yet the general public that elects
political leaders seems unaware of the extraordinary changes and consequences that need to be
discussed.
Free online university courses proliferate; open source hardware and software are sharing the
means of production; and a crowd-sourced international computer game called Foldit solved a
complex protein folding problem, opening the door to global participatory citizen science
connecting thousands and millions of personal computers into ad hoc instant super computers.
Singularity University is bringing together top experts on advanced accelerating technology,
business leaders, investors, and students to create and implement businesses from medicine to
agriculture to affect billions of people. The ability to learn this knowledge is also improving,
with Web-based asynchronous highly motivational educational systems, adaptive learning
models such as cellular automata, genetic algorithms, neural networks, and emerging capabilities
of collective intelligence systems. The "Internet of Things," international collaborations, and big
data analysis are also emerging factors accelerating scientific breakthroughs and technological
applications.
China's Tianhe-2 supercomputer is the world's fastest computer at 33.86 petaflops
(quadrillion floating point operations per second)—passing the computational speed of a human
brain (although not cognition). A team in Japan is creating a multilayered frequency fractal

brain-like computer that creates its own programs and increases its power by maximizing the
density of operations. Watson, the IBM computer that beat the top knowledge contestants on a
TV quiz show, is now used for speeding far more precise diagnosis and therapy for cancer and
other applications. The IBM Watson Group is investing more than $1 billion to bring Watson-
powered cloud-delivered cognitive applications to the world, including poorer regions of Africa.
A new gene sequencing system that can produce tens of thousands of human genomes per
year for under $1,000/genome brings the promise of individual genetic medicine closer to reality.
Human cells have been converted from one cell type to another. For example, skin cells have
even been converted into functioning neurons that integrate into neuron networks of the sort
found in the human brain. Tiny cameras can be swallowed and steered by an MRI machine for
more precise diagnoses. Self-propelled devices can float through the blood stream to deliver
drugs. With these advances, synthetic biology, nano-medicine, and various forms of
computational science, it is reasonable to assume we will live longer, healthier lives than seem
possible today. If so, the concepts of retirement and financial planning will change. Even
technology to detect lying promises to make a more honest world.
Synthetic biology is assembling DNA from different species in new combinations to create
lower-cost biofuels, more-precise medicine, healthier food, new ways to clean up pollution, and
future capabilities well beyond what is currently envisioned. The newer form of synthetic
biology is based on xeno nucleic acid, which is created from new combinations of molecules
without DNA. Craig Venter created a synthetic genome by placing a strand of synthetic DNA
into a bacterium that followed the synthetic DNA’s instructions to replicate. Some have called
for a moratorium on this research until regulations are in place, since the future behavior and
interactions of new lifeforms have not been assessed. How will this change the nature of nature?
Venter forecasts that as computer code is written to create software to augment human
capabilities, so too will genetic code be written to create life forms to augment civilization. This
new biological age could have greater impact on our lives than the industrial age that brought
both human advance and environmental destruction.
HP plans to release a 3D printer in 2016 capable of printing over 30 million drops per second
across each inch of the working area. The cost of simpler 3D printers has fallen to less than $500,
allowing individuals and micro-businesses to become industrial producers. It also opens
possibilities for counterfeiting and reducing international trade, especially in simple plastic items.
Open source digital designs at Thingiverse and Shapeways can be downloaded and printed.
Future 3D printers with stem cells serving as “ink” are being considered for manufacturing
personalized organs and limbs.
Improved efficiency and reduced cost are making renewable energy systems less expensive
than fossil carbon systems. The majority of new installed energy capacity is from non-carbon
renewable sources and that volume should continue to increase. Distributed generation is
increasing and storage is also improving rapidly, including the prospect of metal air batteries and
seasonal thermal storage.

With future autonomous robotics, advanced 3D manufacturing, and globally connected

artificial intelligence, employment-less economic growth could become the new normal. The
industrial age and much of the information age have produced more jobs than they eliminated;
but the speed, capacity, synergies, scope, and global dynamics of the coming changes will be
unprecedented. The sooner the world has serious and systematic conversations about these issues,
the more likely the acceleration of S&T can benefit humanity.
A new “smart dust” of millions of wireless sensors is being developed to monitor chemicals,
biologicals, and radiologicals. Each dust particle is an autonomous computer and
communications device in a swarm connecting the “dust particles.” Another program plans to
embed up to a trillion pushpin-size sensors around the world to detect problems in urban systems.
These programs involve self-organizing networks that interconnect almost everything to improve
system resilience.
Nano robots have the ability to roam inside eyes in tests to deliver drugs for conditions such
as age-related macular degeneration. At an even smaller scale, nanometer robots have been
demonstrated and appear able to link with natural DNA. Nanobots the size of blood cells may
one day enter the body to diagnose and provide therapies while transmitting virtual reality
imagery outside the body. Although nanotechnology promises to make extraordinary gains in
efficiencies needed for sustainable development, its environmental health impacts are a concern.
For example, do they bio-accumulate in certain parts of the body, causing health problems?
There were about 2.65 million industrial robots working at the beginning of 2015; 200,000
were added in 2014, up from 160,000 sold in 2012. South Korea has 4.4 robots per 100 human
workers and Japan has 3.2 robots per 100 workers. While some are remarkably human-like, with
emotive facial expressions, others are remote-controlled surgeons with better than human
precision, and some are being tested to provide elderly care in Japan.
There is a huge gap between what can done with space technology and political-economic
decision-making. For example, solar power satellites could supply electricity without nuclear
waste or GHG emissions 24/7 to any part of the earth and could switch between one region and
another to follow demand (or emergencies), at a documented best cost estimate of 9¢ per kwh.
Reusable space planes that can make that possible could also complete the satellite
communications networks to help connect the rest of the world to the Internet.
Advanced, seemingly esoteric scientific research provides the pool of basic knowledge from
which applied science and engineers will make the technologies to improve the human condition
of tomorrow. For example, CERN confirmed its discovery of the Higgs boson particle that
theoretically exists, along with countless others, in a field that permeates the universe in which
their interaction and attraction gives mass to particles that make up the known universe—of
which scientists only know about 4%. If this could indeed explain the fundamental ability of
particles to acquire mass, how might that be applied to far more efficient management of matter
and energy? Some speculate that a second particle called the Higgs singlet might be discovered
that should have the ability to jump into a fifth dimension where they can move either forward or
backward in time and reappear in the future or past.

In another area, CERN has generated a beam of at least 80 antimatter hydrogen atoms
(antihydrogen) by combining positrons and antiprotons and projecting them to a spectroscopic
detector outside their original magnetic containment that interferes with analysis of antimatter.
All this work at CERN and related advanced scientific centers creates new physics that provides
insights for inventions for more-efficient energy production, transportation, construction, and
medicine.
On another frontier, scientists are attempting to entangle billions of particle pairs (quantum
entanglement is the simultaneous change of entangled objects separated in space) that could
revolutionize communications and possibly transportation. Quantum theory includes the
possibility of the controversial “many worlds interpretation” of our existence. In the MWI, every
event is a branch point that may go in any number of directions, creating an almost infinite set of
branches, each of which describes a simultaneously existing alternate world, a remarkable and
counterintuitive reality. Although seemingly remote from improving the human condition, basic
science of the past led to electricity, wireless communications, and countless other technologies
that we take for granted to day.
There is little relationship between some of the accelerating advances in S&T and what is
covered in the news, discussed by politicians, taught in schools, or fills the public's mind around
the world. We need a global collective intelligence system to track S&T advances, forecast
consequences, and document a range of views so that all can understand the potential
consequences of new and possible future S&T. The history of S&T demonstrates that advances
can have unintended negative consequences as well as benefits. We need innovative business
models and policies to enable more-intelligent use of new technologies.
Challenge 14 will have been addressed seriously when the funding of R&D for societal needs
reaches parity with funding for weapons and when an international science and technology
organization is established that routinely connects world S&T knowledge for use in R&D
priority setting and legislation.
Africa: Over 30% of Kenya's GDP is transferred through mobile telephones. IBM is investing
$100 million in a 10-year initiative to engage Africa in the next generation cognitive ("Watson")
computer applications. The focus of African R&D is shifting from agriculture to medicine and
related fields. The African Development Bank organized the first Africa Forum on Science,
Technology and Innovations in Nairobi to stimulate investments into sustainable development,
human capital development, and employment. The Inter-Parliamentary Forum on Science,
Technology and Innovation promises to increase the percent of GDP for S&T. Low levels of
R&D investment, weak institutions, brain drain, and poor access to markets continue to impede
Africa’s S&T innovation potential. Primary commodities continue to dominate Africa’s exports;
S&T innovation is needed to create added value to exports and to leapfrog into future
biotechnology, nanotech, and renewable energy prospects.

Asia and Oceania: In 2011, China's patent office became the world's largest. China launched the
Shenzhou 9 spacecraft, China’s fourth manned space launch—this time with three astronauts,
including the first Chinese woman astronaut for the first rendezvous with Tiangong 1, China's
space lab. Japan has launched a Venus probe that also carried a space sail that derives its energy
from solar pressure in space. Japan’s R&D as a percent of GDP is about 3%. Although China’s is
slightly less, at 2%, its annual R&D budget has been growing about 12% per year and is the
second largest government R&D budget in the world. Chinese patent filings have increased
500% in the last five years, and it has invested more in clean energy technology than the U.S. has.
Other Asian countries with double-digit economic growth have also experienced double-digit
growth in R&D expenditures. India graduates 20 engineers for every law graduate, and Australia
is investing heavily in its National Nanofabrication Facility.
Europe: Europe adopted an electronics strategy in 2013 to facilitate industry investments of

€100 billion into the nanotechnology electronics industries and to help create 250,000 new jobs
in Europe up to 2020 (currently an estimated 300,000–400,000 people are directly employed in
the nanomaterial sector in Europe). Galileo, the operational nucleus of Europe’s satellite
navigation constellation, is the world’s first civilly owned and operated satnav system. Although
Virgin Galactic had a test flight disaster, it is still the leading European space tourism
company—with more than 500 individuals willing to pay the $200,000 ticket to space.
The EU’s multiannual financial framework 2014–20 includes an increase of the expenditure
ceiling for "competitiveness" by more than 37% compared with 2007–13. Horizon 2020, the
main S&T funding program, is allocated €70.96 billion (lower than the €80 billion proposed by
the EC and the €100 billion proposed by the EP); the Galileo global positioning satellite system,
€6.3 billion; the ITER fusion reactor, €2.7 billion; and the Global Monitoring for Environment
and Security Earth-observing program, €3.79 billion. The European Patent Office became
effective in 2014, allowing inventors to apply for a patent valid in 25 of the bloc's 27 member
states (Spain and Italy remain outside the patent regime). Although the Lisbon Strategy expired
in 2010, succeeded by Europe 2020, the EU target of 3% of GDP for R&D has been kept. In
2013, the average R&D expenditure of the EU27 was 2.02% of GDP, with three EU member
states having achieved the 3% target (Finland 3.87%; Sweden 3.42%; and Denmark 3.06%),
while eight Member States reported R&D expenditures of less than 1% of their GDP.
Russia has lost over 500,000 scientists over the last 15 years; however it is experiencing a
reversal in this trend as salaries have risen, innovation is encouraged, and there is increased
support for high tech. Russian investments in nanotechnology R&D and corporations have been
substantial, even during the recent recession. Russia is building the Skolkovo Innovation Center
with multinational corporations to accelerate R&D and applications, and it has budgeted 2.1
trillion rubles (about $70 billion) under a state program for the development of the national space
industry in 2013–20.

Latin America: Mexico’s National Center for Genetic Resources is a leader for genetic
resources for developing countries in agriculture, livestock, aquaculture, forestry, and microbial
research. The OECD, UNESCO, the EU, the U.S., and China are helping countries in the region
with innovation systems. Chile has started a scientific news network for Latin America in order
to reverse some of the lagging indicators in the region. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico
account for almost 90% of university science in the region, and half of the 500 higher education
institutes produce no scientific research. University S&T courses could be required to focus
some attention on helping the poorest communities. Mexico is leading the Innovation Network
for Latin American and the Caribbean. Peru's R&D support has grown over $300 million, mainly
led by companies, with support from its local universities and research centers.
North America: The U.S. National Institutes of Health remains the largest source of non-
military scientific research funding in the world; however, federal R&D research and facilities
fell 9% in fiscal year 2013. Privately built systems are lowering launch costs in order to open
space to more people and to applications such as SpaceX’s Dragon, Richard Branson's Virgin
Galactic, and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin. Also, Bigelow is pursuing inflatable orbital stations.
Boeing has proposed low-earth orbit fuel depots. Blue Origin is working on reusable rockets and
spacecraft to launch astronauts to suborbital and orbital space. Stratolaunch plans to use a huge
airplane to air launch space capsules. In 2011, three AI courses were offered free online by well-
known Stanford University professors. Over 150,000 students registered and 35,000 actually
handed in homework. Other universities that offer free access to courses are MIT, Harvard,
Princeton, and the Universities of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Research by the U.S. National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine is
available for free online. About 35% of world R&D is in the U.S. Each week the U.S. Patent
Office makes thousands of new patents freely available online; however, increasing numbers of
false patent infringement cases are costing companies billions of dollars to settle out of court
instead of paying much higher legal fees—a new kind of legal extortion. The Innovation Act was
introduced in the U.S. Congress to counter this kind of organized crime, but it has yet to become
law.

Global Challenge 15. How can ethical considerations become more

routinely incorporated into global decisions?
Although short-term economic me-first attitudes are prevalent throughout the world, love for
humanity and global consciousness are also evident in the norms expressed in the many UN
treaties, UN organizations, international philanthropy, the Olympic spirit, inter-religious
dialogues, refugee relief, development programs for poorer nations, Doctors Without Borders,
and international journalism. Heads of State and governments meet more often than ever before
to improve the human condition. Human rights, transparency, and the rule of law as policy
criteria are relatively new in diplomatic history. But all this progress has been too slow. The
rising number of protests around the world shows a growing unwillingness to tolerate unethical
decision-making by power elites. A more educated and Internet-connected generation is
increasingly rising up against the abuse of power and demanding accountability.

The proliferation of unethical decisions that led to the 2008 financial crisis clearly
demonstrated the interdependence of economic results and ethics. Quick fixes avoided a global
financial collapse and pulled the world out of recession, but the underlying ethical questions
have not been addressed sufficiently to prevent future crises. The moral will to act in
collaboration across national, institutional, religious, and ideological boundaries that is necessary
to address today’s global challenges requires global ethics. Public morality based on religious
metaphysics is challenged daily by growing secularism, leaving many unsure about the moral
basis for decision-making. Many turn back to old traditions for guidance, giving rise to
fundamentalist movements in many religions today. Unfortunately, religions and ideologies that
claim moral superiority give rise to “we-they” splits that are being played out in conflicts around
the world.
The acceleration of scientific and technological change seems to grow beyond conventional
means of ethical evaluation. Is it ethical to clone ourselves or bring dinosaurs back to life or to
invent thousands of new life forms through synthetic biology? Is it ethical to implement new
S&T developments without proper safety testing or to develop new forms of weapons without
human control over their use and safe disposal? Should basic scientific research be pursued
without direct regard for social issues and the society that funds it? Yet social considerations
might impair progress toward truthful understanding of reality. Since journalists have to "hype"
to be read in such an information-noisy world, truth can be distorted, resulting in a cynical public.
Since there is little time to assess daily S&T advances, is it time to invent anticipatory ethical
systems? Just as law has a body of previous judgments to draw on for guidance, will we also
need bodies of ethical judgments about possible future events? Despite the extraordinary
achievements in S&T, future risks from its continued acceleration and globalization remain (see
GFIS under Research: “Future S&T Management and Policy Issues”) and give rise to future
ethical issues (see “Future Ethical Issues,” also under Research in GFIS). For example, it is
possible that one day a single individual could make and deploy a bioweapon of mass destruction.
Society will naturally want to prevent this, requiring early detection and probably invasion of
privacy and abridgment of other civil rights. To reduce the number of such potentially massively
destructive people in the future, healthy psychological development of all children should be the
concern of everyone. Such observations are not new, but the consequences of failure to nurture
mentally healthy, moral people may be much more serious in the future than they were in the
past. If individuals can be identified who are very likely to commit or who are preparing acts of
mass terrorism, is it ethical to arrest them before the act? The Snowden-NSA revelations give
rise to a global discussion of individual and sovereign rights versus collective security. The
ethical grounds of using advanced surveillance technologies on the public and political protesters
are also questioned.
At the same time, new technologies also make it easier for more people to do more good at a
faster pace than ever before. Single individuals initiate groups on the Internet, organizing actions
worldwide around specific ethical issues. News media, blogs, mobile phone cameras, ethics
commissions, and NGOs are increasingly exposing unethical decisions and corrupt practices.

It is quite likely that the vast majority of decisions every day around the world are perfectly
honorable. Collective responsibility for global ethics in decision-making is embryonic but
growing.
Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have recruited 128 billionaires to give the majority of their
money to philanthropic causes. Elon Musk is freely sharing patents to accelerate development of
greener technologies. Richard Branson has created Plan B for businesses to make decisions for
people, planet, and profit—not just for profit. Corporate social responsibility programs, ethical
marketing, and social investing are increasing.
The UN Global Compact was created to reinforce ethics in business decision-making. As of
April 2015 it had more than 12,000 participants from 145 countries, 8,322 businesses, and over
4,608 civil society organizations, while some 5,628 businesses have been expelled for failing to
report progress on meeting the Compact's goals. It has improved business-NGO collaboration,
raised the profile of corporate responsibility programs, increased businesses’ non-financial
reporting mandates in many countries, and created a 2014–16 strategy to further businesses'
ethical roles in peace and development.
Global ethics also are emerging around the world through the evolution of ISO standards and
international treaties that are defining the norms of civilization. The Universal Declaration of
Human Rights continues to shape discussions about global ethics and decisions across religious
and ideological divides.
Despite the progress made, corruption remains prevalent throughout the world and is a
serious impediment to development. Nearly 20% of 130,000 firms surveyed by the World Bank
in 135 countries were asked to pay a bribe at least once per year. Bribery estimates range from
$1 trillion to $1.6 trillion worldwide. Transparency International’s 2014 Corruption Perceptions
Index found that 68% of the 175 countries and territories assessed scored below 50 (on a scale
from 0=highly corrupt to 100=very clean). The percent of countries in each region that scored
under 50 were as followed: Americas (68%); Asia Pacific (64%), Eastern and Central Europe
(95%); EU and Western Europe (16%); Middle East and North Africa (84%), and sub-Saharan
Africa (92%). The world average was 43%. Their 2015 Defense Companies Anti-Corruption
Index found 33% of the companies studied had improved their ethics and anti-corruption
programs since 2012.
There are approximately 10.5 million children ages 5–14 working in hazardous and
oftentimes slavery-like conditions, with 71% of those being young girls. More than 35.8 million
people live in modern slavery conditions worldwide--more than at the height of the nineteenth-
century slave trade; organized crime takes in over $3 trillion annually; and rich countries send
some 50 million tons of waste to developing countries each year. Concentration of personal
wealth is increasing (by 2016, the richest 1% of people might have more than all the rest of the
world together) as is technological unemployment, which brings into question the ethics of the
current political-economic systems.
The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, backed by the World Bank, was launched
in 2002 to obligate companies and countries to make public the terms of oil, gas, and mineral

deals with developing countries; it now has 48 implementing countries, 31 compliant countries,
and 39 members have published revenues. The UN Convention Against Corruption has been
ratified by 175 countries and the European Union. This established definitions and rules of
behavior and is the only legally binding universal anti-corruption instrument. The International
Criminal Court is successfully trying political leaders, and the proceedings are Web-cast. The
UN’s on-line Universal Human Rights Index compiles recommendations and country reports for
public comparisons. UNESCO's study of world religions to find a "Common Framework for the
Ethics of the 21st Century" should be used as a basis to engage inter-religious dialogue leaders,
other thought leaders, and the international media to increase global ethical considerations in
decision-making.
Corrupt officials' travel visas should be voided, Transparency’s “Unmask the Corrupt”
campaign should be supported, and owners of all companies should be publicly registered. We
need to create better incentives for ethics in global decisions, promote parental guidance to
establish a sense of values, teach ethics and solidarity principles in schools, encourage respect for
legitimate authority while demanding accountability, support the identification and success of the
influence of role models, implement cost-effective strategies for global education for a more
enlightened world, and make behavior match the values people say they believe in. Too often
business is a way to make money by cheating people instead of solving problems. Entertainment
media could promote memes like “make decisions that are good for me, you, and the world.”
Ethical and spiritual education should grow in balance with the new powers given to humanity
by technological progress.
Challenge 15 will be addressed seriously when:
 Corruption decreases by 50% from the World Bank estimates of 2006
 Ethical business standards are internationally practiced and regularly audited
 Essentially all students receive education in ethics and responsible citizenship
 Global ethics is generally acknowledged as transcending religion and nationality.
Africa: About 5% of African youth go to universities today and are likely to be the next
generation of African leaders. How much they care about their ethical development could predict
the future ethics of the continent. South Africa has launched the Five Plus Project to get richer
South Africans to give at least 5% of their income to help reduce poverty. Since African citizens
do not always share in the benefits of their natural resources, the Extractive Industries
Transparency Initiative is working to let the public know how their national natural resources are
being used—and by whom and at what price. Special attention will have to be given to millions
of AIDS orphans in Africa who have had little choice about growing up in unethical
environments. The proportion of children engaged in child labor in sub-Saharan Africa is
currently around 25%. Corruption in the region is estimated at $150 billion (more than the entire
amount of ODA); this remains a serious impediment to democracy and economic development in
many African countries. However, bribery varies across Africa; 63% of those surveyed in Sierra

Leone reported paying bribes (down from 84% several years ago), while only 4% in Botswana
reported the same. The Business Ethics Network of Africa continues to grow (10 sub-Saharan
and 6 North African countries participate), with conferences, research, and publications.
Transparency International has 16 national chapters, 5 national chapters in formation, and 6
national contacts in sub-Saharan Africa helping to build capacity to counter corruption.
Middle East and North Africa: What are the global ethics of intervention? Scholars should
draw lessons about the ethical implications of intervention and decision-making on all sides of
the Syrian disasters. Much of the original Arab Spring/Awakening protests were calls for ethics
in decision-making. With youth unemployment at 25% of the region’s population, increasing
crime and other forms of unethical activity are likely. According to Bayt.com surveys, corporate
social responsibility is growing in the Middle East and North Africa. This may build on Zakat
(charitable giving), one of the five requirements in Islam.
Asia and Oceania: UNESCO organized the first Asia-Pacific conference on "Ethics Education
for All: Searching for a New Paradigm of Learning to Live Together," which focused on global
justice, curriculum, and future trends in ethics education. Altering the genome of embryos by
Chinese scientists raises questions about the ethics of one generation changing the genetics for
all future generations. The millions of dollars that flooded the Philippines to help it recover from
Typhoon Haiyan led to corruption, reminding us to include financial accountability and
transparency in natural disaster resilience planning. As China’s global decision-making role
increases, it will face conflicts about traditional versus Western values. It has initiated a major
anticorruption campaign, which, if successful, could influence others in the region. Some believe
the rate of urbanization and economic growth is so fast in Asia that it is difficult to consider
global ethics, while some Asians do not believe there are common global ethics and maintain
that the pursuit to create them is a Western notion.
Europe: The growing immigrant population in Europe will increase discussions of ethics and
identity for Europe. If current trends continue, by 2050 some 20% of Europe's total population
might be Muslim, which could challenge Europe's generally secular and democratic values. Most
eurozone countries are ranked among the world’s least corrupt by Transparency International;
however, it ranks Eastern Europe and Central Asia among the most corrupt in the world. The EU
Anti-Corruption Report, to be published every two years, has been established to assess and help
member states’ efforts to address corruption. The first report, published in 2014, shows that 76%
of the Europeans participating in the Eurobarometer survey think that corruption is widespread in
their own country, with ratings ranging from 20% in Denmark to 99% in Greece and 97% in
Italy. The financial crisis involving Greece and other southern European countries raises moral
issues about the interdependent ethical responsibilities among citizens, the state, and members of
the eurozone. The European Ethics Network is linking efforts to improve ethical decision-
making, while Ethics Enterprise is working to mobilize an international network of ethicists and

to organize innovative actions to attract attention for ethics in business. Spain and France have
the greatest number of businesses in the UN Global Compact, and Spain is also the leading
country in ISO 50001 energy management compliance.
Latin America: Economic benefits of rapid exploitation of natural resources are at odds with
environmental ethics across the region. Chile’s President vowed to counter corruption as a top
priority for her new government. Mexico has passed legislation to create a national anti-
corruption system and enacted an Anti-corruption Federal Law on public procurement to punish
individuals and companies for unethical behavior. Problems such as lack of personal security,
limited access to education and health services, lack of faith in politics, badly damaged
institutions that do not fulfill their roles (such as the justice system and police), and the
accelerated environmental degradation in some countries are aspects of a serious lack of ethical
values. Regardless of legal frameworks, large sections of the population remain excluded from
the promised protections. It also manifests as a serious lack of ethical standards in the mass
media.
North America: Although the U.S. is part of many UN organizations and treaties that advance
the cause of global ethics, it is still not part of the International Criminal Court. Because
technologies of national security intelligence and their applications could evolve faster than
public understanding and political oversight, the U.S. and others have begun to fundamentally
rethink security and privacy requirements. What are the ethical ways to identify and stop
individuals who are planning to make and deploy weapons of mass destruction? How far can
business go to counter cyber-espionage? Will a continually advancing “Internet of Things” with
sensor networks and drones make privacy an illusion and hence replace covert methods? U.S.
defense research has created cyborg insects that can be remotely controlled, raising new
questions for the future of inter-species cyborg ethics. Although the U.S. has provided some
leadership in bringing ethical considerations into many international organizations and forums,
its ethical leadership is compromised by lobbying interests; the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that
new systems can allow anyone (including organized crime and foreign political sources) to
donate any amount of money anonymously to special funds that could influence political media
campaigns. There is still no generally accepted way to get corrupting money out of politics and
elections or to stop “cozy relationships” between regulators and those they regulate. There is
public dissatisfaction with the status and speed of prosecutions of individuals’ and companies’
unethical financial practices that led to the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. plans to adopt
legislation to make it compliant with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.
Although ranked among the top best countries by the Corruption Perceptions Index, Canada
has been shaken by several incidents of corruption and abuse of public office, which undermines
citizens’ trust in government officials.

Figure 1.10 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in

the public sector rating (world) (1=low; 6=high)

Figure 1.11 is a graphic representation of The Millennium Project’s process on identifying and
updating the Global Challenges and the development of the State of the Future Index.
Figure 1.11 Global Challenges and SOFI Process

2015 STATE OF THE FUTURE INDEX
The State of the Future Index is an indication of the 10-year outlook for the future, based on
historical data of selected variables for the previous 20 or more years and on judgments about the
best and worst plausible 10-year outcomes for each variable. It is constructed with key variables
that are individually forecast and that in aggregate can indicate the potential trend of the future.
The SOFI is intended to show the direction and intensity of change and to identify the roles
of the factors (variables) responsible. It provides a mechanism for studying the relationships
among the items of the system—how changes to individual or several variables ripple throughout
a system. The SOFI is useful for assessing the consequences of different policies and for
showing the combined potential outcomes in an easy to understand fashion. It has been produced
by The Millennium Project since 2000. For the methodology, see “State of the Future Index” in
the Futures Research Methodology section of GFIS (http.themp.org).
The variables included in the SOFI, as well as their respective weights (importance to the
system), and the “best” and “worst” values in 2025 have been decided through RTD studies and
updated by the Millennium Project staff. The sources of data have been carefully considered, are
deemed to be reliable, and have good historical data records.
However, combining many variables into a single index number can lead to loss of detail,
compensating losses in some areas with progress in the others; this could smooth the look of the
SOFI line, as well as mask variations among sectors, regions, or nations. The apparent precision
of an index should not be mistaken for accuracy.
SOFI is in continuous evolution and adapted to global changes. Box 2.1 presents the variables
included in the computation of the 2015 SOFI. The most important changes to the computation
of the 2015 SOFI compared with earlier SOFIs include:
 New variables were added and some variables were replaced with new ones (e.g., “Share
of high-skilled employment” has been added; “Wars (with over 1,000 deaths)” has been
replaced with “Wars and armed conflicts”).
 Historical data were updated, and new series were inserted when old series were
discontinued.
 New curve fit equations were derived, and new interpolations were made for missing data.

The baseline SOFI that resulted from the use of the new data sets for the variables is shown
in Figure 2.1. The data and their sources, extrapolations, and equations for forecasting are
available in the State of the Future Index section in GFIS (http://themp.org) under “Research.”
A one-to-one comparison with the SOFIs prepared in earlier years would be misleading,
since some of the variables have changed. However, overall, the shape of this year’s SOFI is
similar to earlier indexes: the growth rate over the coming 10 years will be slower than over the
past 20 years. This is mostly due to the slow recovery after the 2008 economic crises. It is reflected
in the SOFI decrease in 2009 and a smaller decrease in 2011. One of the variables that has a
large impact on the 2015 SOFI projection is the number of terrorist attacks. If terrorism could be
contained, the world outlook and the rate of growth would appear to be considerably better.
A sensitivity analysis (using multiple regressions) revealed that the following variables
would have a highly significant impact on the overall SOFI:
 Terrorism incidents
 Economic income inequality
 Foreign direct investment, net inflows
 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita
 Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use)
Figure 2.2 shows how the SOFI would be affected by 25% improvements in energy
efficiency and income inequality by 2025. The compounded effect—if both were to occur—
would produce a 5.15% improvement to the global SOFI, while the individual effects would be
1.8% improvement for increased energy efficiency and 3.2% for reduced income inequality.
One of the advantages of computing the SOFI is the identification of the areas where we are
winning or losing or stagnating—thereby helping set priorities. Figures 2.3 and 2.4 show where
humanity is making progress and where more political attention and efforts are needed. This can
be further analyzed by assessing the individual variables and their potential trajectories.
(Figures 2.11 to 2.38 at the end of this section show the graphs of the variables with their
respective extrapolations.)
The world seems to be making progress in more areas than it is regressing or stagnating in,
but since the areas of stagnation or regress are crucially important for human and planetary
survival, addressing them should be a top priority.

Figure 2.1 State of the Future Index 2015
Figure 2.2 State of the Future Index 2015 with 25% improvements of
Energy Efficiency and Income Inequality between 2016 and 2025

Box 2.1 Variables included in the computation of 2015 SOFI
29. GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)

30. Economic income inequality (income share held by highest 10%)
31. Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
32. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
33. CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
(1=low; 6=high)
34. Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions)
36. Population growth (annual %)
38. Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)
39. Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
40. Health expenditure per capita (current $)
42. Improved water source (% of population with access)
43. Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)
44. Biocapacity per capita (gha)
45. Forest area (% of land area)
46. Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
47. Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use
48. Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric
(% of total)
51. Share of high-skilled employment (%)
52. Number of wars and armed conflicts
53. Terrorism incidents
54 F d i ht ( b f ti t d “f ”)

Figure 2.3 Where we are winning

Figure 2.4 Where we are losing or there is no progress
SOFI can be—and has been—computed for nation-states. SOFIs could also be constructed
for different domains (e.g., a SOFI for artificial intelligence or a SOFI for the knowledge
economy). The national SOFIs that have been computed over the years are available in the State
of the Future Index section in GFIS, under “Research.” This year, the featured national SOFIs
are those computed by the V4 SOFI project conducted by a consortium of MP Nodes of the
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The V4 SOFI project has been funded by a
grant from the International Visegrad Fund and was led by the Polish Society for Futures Studies.
The set of variables included in the V4 2014 SOFI is presented in Box 2.2. Figures 2.5 to 2.9
show the respective national SOFIs and the composed V4 SOFIs. The entire study is available at
www.sofi.4cf.pl.
The V4 SOFI study also used the national comparison SOFI to compare the SOFI of the four
countries. Further analysis of this comparison could help highlight areas of progress and develop
an understanding for why some countries are making more progress than others and therefore,
when possible, promote opportunities for learning from each other’s experience. Figure 2.10
presents the resulting comparison graph. With further funding and additional European partners,
the V4 project consortium is planning to expand the SOFI computation for other European
countries and develop a more Europe-specific set of variables (Regional-Focus SOFI).

Box 2.2 Variables included in the computation of V4 2014 SOFI for

Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia
1. CO2 emissions (% of global emissions)

2. Non-fossil fuel energy consumption (% of total)
3. Food availability (kcal/cap/day)
4. Forest area (% of national land area)
5. Freedom level (as measured by Freedom House surveys, Country Score: 1=
completely free; 7= completely not free)
6. GDP per capita (PPP, current international $)
7. GDP per unit of energy use (PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)
8. Homicides, intentional (per 100,000 population)
9. Infant mortality (deaths per 1,000 live births)
10. Internet users (per 1,000 population)
11. Levels of corruption (as measured by Transparency International surveys)
14. Number of refugees displaced from the country (% of national population)
15. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (% of national population)
16. People voting in elections (% of national population of voting age)
18. Population growth rate (annual %)
19. Population lacking access to improved water sources (% of national population)
20. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of national population)
21. Prevalence of HIV (% of national population)
24. Seats held by women in national parliament (% of all national members)

Figure 2.5 2014 SOFI Czech Republic
Figure 2.6 2014 SOFI Hungary

Figure 2.7 2014 SOFI Poland
Figure 2.8 2014 SOFI Slovakia

Figure 2.9 V4 2014 SOFI
Figure 2.10 2014 SOFI Comparison among V4 countries
SOFI’s computation at global, national, and regional or sectoral levels is being continuously
improved in methodology, set of variables, and computation technique. The Millennium Project
is also working on developing an automated computation, to make it easier for anyone to
construct SOFIs tailored to their specific objectives.

Variables included in the global 2015 SOFI

The “best” and “worst” values in 2025 have been decided through RTD studies and updated by
the Millennium Project staff.
Figure 2.11 GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)
Figure 2.12 Economic income inequality (Income share held by highest 10%)

Figure 2.13 Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)
Source: ILO 2015 global report, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast
Figure 2.14 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)

Figure 2.15 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating
(1=low; 6=high)
Figure 2.16 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions)

Figure 2.17 R&D expenditures (% of GDP)
Figure 2.18 Population growth (annual %)

Figure 2.19 Life expectancy at birth (years)
Figure 2.20 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

Figure 2.21 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)
Figure 2.22 Health expenditure per capita (current $)

Figure 2.23 Physicians (per 1,000 people)
Figure 2.24 Improved water source (% of population with access)

Figure 2.25 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)
Figure 2.26 Biocapacity per capita (gha)
Source: Global Footprint Network, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Figure 2.27 Forest area (% of land area)
Figure 2.28 Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)
Source: CDIAC Global Carbon Budget 2014, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Figure 2.29 Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use

Figure 2.30 Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric

(% of total)

Figure 2.31 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)
Figure 2.32 School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

Figure 2.33 Share of high-skilled employment (%)
Source: ILO 2015 global report, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast
Figure 2.34 Number of wars and armed conflicts
Source: List of wars by date, Wikipedia, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Figure 2.35 Terrorism incidents
Source: Start Project, University of Maryland, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast
Figure 2.36 Freedom rights (number of countries rated "free")
Source: Freedom House, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast

Figure 2.37 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (% of members)
Source: IPU, with Millennium Project compilation and forecast
Figure 2.38 Internet users (per 100 people)
Source: World Bank indicators and Internetworldstats, with Millennium Project compilation
and forecast

FUTURE OF WORK/TECHNOLOGY 2050
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and artificial intelligence experts are warning the
world about the potential dangers of artificial intelligence growing beyond human control as it
becomes superintelligence, artificial general intelligence, or strong AI—the ability to
autonomously rewrite its own software code based on feedback, implement the new software
simultaneously around the world, modify its goals, and outperform human intellect. Nick
Bostrom’s expert survey in 2012/2013 found a 50–50 chance that “high-level machine
intelligence” could be achieved by 2040–50 and that superintelligence could be archived 30
years thereafter. (See http://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf.)
Whether AI can evolve beyond human control into the nightmares of science fiction or not, it
is certain that it and other future technologies (e.g., synthetic biology, computational science,
nanotechnology, quantum computing, 3D and 4D printing, Internet of Things, self-driving
vehicles, robotics, and other technologies and synergies) will have fundamental impacts on the
nature of work, economics, and culture by 2050. The Pew Research Center found that the
“experts” are nearly evenly divided about whether future technology will replace more jobs than
it creates in just 10 years. Already we see that:
 Concentration of wealth is increasing.
 Income gaps are widening.
 Jobless economic growth seems the new norm.
 Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better than in labor.
 Future technologies can replace much of human labor.
 Long-term structural unemployment is a business-as-usual forecast.
If long-term structural unemployment is inevitable, what should be done to improve the
future prospects for civilization? Instead of a dystopian socioeconomic future, some believe that
this could lead to a global renaissance of creativity as people are freed from the necessity of
working for a living. But financial viability is not yet clear.

The Millennium Project assumes that the world needs to think seriously about all this now,
because it may take a generation or more to make the changes necessary to improve our future
prospects. To address this challenge, it launched a Future Work/Technology 2050 study with
eight steps:
1. Literature and related research review
2. Real-Time Delphi international survey
3. Road maps and scenario drafts
4. Real-Time Delphi feedback on the draft road maps and scenarios
5. Final scenarios, policy implications, and production of an initial report
6. Initial report as input to national planning workshops
7. Collect results of the national planning workshops; analyze and synthesize results
8. Final report for public discussion
This chapter shares the results of the second step.
Future Work/Technology 2050 Real-Time Delphi Study

Based on a review of the literature and related research, the following main questions were
asked online using the Real-Time Delphi software in the Global Futures Intelligence System:
1. If socio-political-economic systems stay the same around the world, and if technological
acceleration, integration, and globalization continue, what percent of the world do you
estimate could be unemployed—as we understand being employed today—during each of
the following years: 2020; 2030; 2040; 2050?
2. More jobs were created than replaced during both the Industrial and Information Ages.
However, many argue that the speed, integration, and globalization of technological
changes of the next 35 years (by 2050) will cause massive structural unemployment.
What are the technologies or factors that might make this true or false?
3. What questions have to be resolved to answer whether AI and other future technologies
create more jobs than they eliminate?
4. How likely and effective could these actions be in creating new work and/or income to
address technological unemployment by 2050?
5. Will wealth from artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies continue to
accumulate income to the very wealthy, increasing the income gaps?
6. How necessary or important do you believe it is that some form of guaranteed income be
in place to end poverty, reduce inequality, and address technological unemployment?
7. Do you expect that the cost of living will be reduced by 2050 due to future forms of AI
robotic and nanotech manufacturing, 3D/4D printing, future Internet services, and other
future production and distribution systems?
8. What big changes by 2050 could affect all this?
9. What alternative scenario axes and themes should be written connecting today with 2050,
describing cause-and-effect links and decisions that are important to consider today?
10. Other comments to improve this study?

Participants were selected from the literature and research review and by The Millennium
Project’s Nodes around the world. Some 300 experts provided both numeric judgments and over
1,000 comments about their judgments.
Demographics of the participants

There were 99 participants from North America (U.S. and Canada), 111 from Europe, 49
from Latin America, 25 from Asia-Pacific, 5 from Africa, and 9 undefined. There were almost
four times as many male (232) as female (65) respondents. Tables 3.1 to 3.3 present the
demographics of the participants by their affiliation, experience in futures studies, and age
categories. The institutional affiliation results in more than the number of participants, since
some respondents listed themselves in more than one category.
Table 3.1 Age Group of Participants

Age group Participants
Under 30 22
30–45 77
46–60 105
61–70 59
Over 70 33
Undefined 2
Table 3.2 Respondents’ Degree of Expertise in Futures Research

Experience in Futures Research Participants
High (contributed concepts and/or methods, teach and/or write in
101
the field, use and/or produce futures research full-time)
Middle (well-read, maybe published in the field, part of their work
135
is future research)
Low (only general awareness) 51
Undefined 11
Table 3.3 Institutional Affiliation of the Participants

Institutional Affiliation Participants
University 91
Business 70
Independent consultant/writer 60
Think tank 58
Government 34
NGO 31
UN or other IO 7
Other or Undefined 32

Distillation of responses
The following presents the averages of the quantitative responses and a distillation of the
comments:
Question 1: If socio-political-economic systems stay the same around the world, and if
technological acceleration, integration, and globalization continue, what percent of the
world do you estimate could be unemployed—as we understand being employed today—
during each of the following years: 2020; 2030; 2040; 2050?
The graph in Figure 3.1 displays the averages of 279 responses by 10-year increments. This
clearly shows that without changes in the socio-political-economic systems, unemployment is
thought of as an increasing trend.
Figure 3.1 Average Rate of Unemployment by 2050 by 10-year increments
30
24
25 20
Percent unemployed
20 16
11
15
10
0
2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
All age groups and geographic regions expect unemployment to increase over the years.
There was almost no difference between male and female average unemployment estimates. The
greater the experience of the futurist, however, the higher the unemployment forecast. Similarly,
the greater the experience in AI and technical field, the higher the rating of unemployment
forecast.
The following is a distilled set of reasons given by the respondents for their forecasts, and
additional comments:
Concept of work, jobs, employment will change. Rates of unemployment may become
meaningless.
We will be creative and adapt.
Tech unemployment will accelerate when AI masters vision and how to learn.

Everything that can be automated will be; we need to start talking about a world without jobs
quickly.
The issue is distribution of income and wealth.
Tech augments human work; human-tech symbiosis is a new form of work.
The applications of AI and other tech may go slow at first, but expect their applications to
begin to spread around the world more quickly around 2030–40 with unemployment impacts
spreading more broadly by 2050... that is if we do not begin to create new approaches now,
which may take decades to implement. When AI learns how to learn on its own, worldwide, it
will learn faster and faster than humans can learn, unless humans become augmented cyborgs.
30-hour work week; global tele-work will take up the slack; new tech creates new work,
rising BRICs and 3W creates new work.
Unemployment in richer countries but new jobs in poorer countries.
There will be more working-age population in the poor regions than job-creating
technologies could cover.
Unlike the industrial revolution, there will be no plateau during which human labor will have
a chance to catch up.
Global megaprojects will really change the economy creating innovations in human-machine
work; meaningful activity such as space exploration to promote the chances that life and our
species survives in the longer term.
The AI revolution should trigger changes to entire social and economic systems, as the
agricultural and the industrial revolutions have done at those times.
Freed from the necessity of working to make a living:
 2020: Increasing technological unemployment balanced by economic upswing
 2030: People who would like to work increasingly replaced by machines
 2040: Basic income guarantee in most wealthy countries—most people no longer seek
employment and the definition of unemployment no longer applies
 2050: Basic income in most countries
The tools and technologies of abundance are expanding faster than they can be expropriated.
Work as fulfillment, self-actualization, and not just income.
The top 10 job categories in 2025 do not exist today. We will deal with problems that have
not yet been identified, and apply solutions that are based on technology that has not yet
been developed.
Freelance work will increase exponentially.
Unemployment rate of over 25% across the world would lead to massive unrest and possibly
the collapse of civilization.
Effectively 100% unemployment by 2100 may not be unreasonable.
Passive income will become as common as checking your email or Facebook messages and
will create an inflation of what it costs for a real human on the job.

The real question is not about "employment" or "unemployment" as we understand them

today, but about an income or distribution of wealth that would allow all (or most) members
of society to have a decent living standard.
Our technological surrogate workers may be arriving just in time to save us from societal
decay due to distraction by new forms of human activity that are not productivity-oriented.
Question 2: More jobs were created than replaced during both the Industrial and
Information Ages. However, many argue that the speed, integration, and globalization of
technological changes of the next 35 years (by 2050) will cause massive structural
unemployment. What are the technologies or factors that might make this true or false?
Question 2.1: Factors replacing more jobs/work by 2050, preventing mass unemployment rated
on a scale from 10 as Primary Cause to 0 No Impact at All. Table 3.4 displays the average
ratings by 263 participants.
Table 3.4 Average Rating of Technologies Likely to Replace Rather than Create More
Jobs/Work by 2050
Causative
Technologies Replacing Jobs
Strength
Robotics 7.51
Integration and synergies among these making technologies not known today 6.92
Artificial intelligence 6.81
Artificial general intelligence 6.47
Retraining unable to keep up with accelerating technological changes 6.43
3D/4D printing 6.14
Other factors 5.54
Drones 5.35
Nanotechnology 5.19
Synthetic biology 4.66
The following is a distillation of the 241 comments given by participants for their answers,
along with comments on question 2.1:
We are currently developing a second intelligent species, which we have never done before
and which humans simply cannot compete with; it will have FAR MORE CAPABILITY and
LESS COST than humans.
The definition of "employment" will change from something you need to survive or live
decently to something you do voluntarily to get a feeling of self-worth or more luxuries.
I don't think full general artificial intelligence will arrive in this time frame. If it does, it
would change most of my answers as it would be a huge force for change and would enable,

for example, nanotechnology to achieve its full potential, which it otherwise would have a
difficult time doing without AI control systems.
The current leaps in automation and AI will NOT "plateau"; they will keep accelerating
beyond our control. That is the key dynamic we absolutely must address. Never in our history
has the technology itself been so free of human control to improve itself.
With the widespread job disruption coming through artificial general intelligence and
robotics, retraining will be irrelevant. Retrain to what?
Technological asymmetry will be a problem between the haves and have-nots.
AI and AGI will replace the need for any workforce eventually.
Question 2.2: Factors creating more jobs/work by 2050, preventing mass unemployment rated
on a scale from 0 the weakest or no impact to 10 the strongest. Table 3.5 displays the averages of
251 respondents’ judgments of the strength of factors thought to create more jobs than they
replace.
Table 3.5 Average Rating of the Factors Thought to Help Create Jobs and Prevent Mass
Unemployment by 2050
Average
Factors Creating More Jobs Than Replaced
impact
New economic and work concepts 7.17
Self-employment, freelancing, Do It Yourself support systems, incentives, and
7.07
training
Growth in new jobs in leisure, recreation, and health care industries 6.67
Freedom to create new work to make life worthwhile beyond “necessary” work 6.28
Human creativity will accelerate across the world 6.25
Other technologies could create more jobs than they replace 6.14
Human-technology symbiosis and/or augmentation 5.95
Crowd sourcing for finance (Kickstarter) and crowd-sourced work 5.61
Biological revolution (synthetic biology and other new biology-related industries) 5.42
Self-correcting: as unemployment goes up, purchasing goes down, reducing
4.12
growth of AI robotic systems, in turn replacing fewer jobs
The following is a distillation of the reasons given by the participants for their answers, along
with comments on question 2.2:
Information and means of production are far more open and distributed in the forthcoming
Biological Revolution than they were during the Industrial Revolution and the Information
Revolution.
An unlimited number of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations is possible, each with an
unlimited number of peer-to-peer ad hoc “workers.”

The maker and self-employed economies are likely to thrive.

The capital requirements for start-ups are increasingly low—consider YouTube, Facebook,
Uber, etc.
People will adapt by looking beyond today's restrictive views of activities as being "labor" or
"work" and seeking to have worthwhile lives but only if political and economic and social
systems and expectations are adjusted as they should be.
If humanity can move into a phase where thought is valued above physical labor, and
creativity is treasured above output, it could be a watershed moment.
Occupations within virtual reality; the metaverse.
Sharing economy is creating new business concepts.
Internet to obtain skills on a global basis, providing for new work structures.
The most sought-after good might be a purpose in life.
Local economies will be more sound than global economies.
DIY will eliminate some job categories, but potentially many more self-employment and
freelance "jobs" can be created.
DIY, crowd sourcing, etc. only makes competition more intense; a race to the bottom for
resources and money.
Hormonal peaks and valleys tend to be a driving factor of human creativity. It will be
interesting to see how a perfectly engineered intelligence can compete with natural hormonal
creative cycles.
A future “TradeNet” with smart AI contracts peer-to-peer using blockchain financial systems.
Question 3: What questions have to be resolved to answer whether AI and other future
technologies create more jobs than they eliminate?
Question 3.1: What questions have to be resolved?

The following is a distillation of 220 responses.
How can we create initial conditions for AGI or super intelligence or strong AI so it evolves
in a good way?
Do we want jobs at all? Should we be fighting to retain jobs? Or fighting to eliminate them?
How intelligent can AI and AGI become? How much complexity can robots handle?
What are plausible alternative definitions of work, jobs, employment, and basic income?
Who will own the AI? Is AI an independent operator; can it own tools it’s using or
controlling? Does it have intellectual property rights over its productions, code, algorithms,
or inventions? What if very creative AI makes a lot of money and becomes a millionaire or

billionaire, gaining lot of financial leverage? How will we determine and control AI motives?
And should we?
What taxes and how to collect them?
Will human beings still be essential for conceiving, designing, building, and applying new
technological tools—or will machines also take over this part?
Can we adapt our attitudes to work, business models, taxation, and welfare fast enough to
avoid mass civil unrest as machines replace people at work?
Work creation though AI, not “jobs creation.”
Can synthetic biology create many new industries and employment?
What kind of economy comes next?
We have no names for these new “post-unemployment” activities or categories yet. What will
be the new economic order? How do we define "work" in the future?
Will strong AI [or superintelligence or AGI] be freely distributed worldwide?
How can future technologies eradicate poverty?
How and by whom is money created and distributed?
How can we support the development of a person with technology while taking care of the
environment so that humans can live in a "humane" environment?
Question 3.2: What are your thoughts about answers to the questions you suggested?
The following is a distillation of 212 responses:
The objective of work will be self-actualization; the objective of the economy will be the well-
being of humans.
Basic income should be installed and paid by the government.
Artificial biology could be as large as or larger than the Industrial Revolution, creating
many jobs that could be offset by all those jobs lost by AI, robotics, etc.
Localization—Go back to live in connected villages in harmony with nature.
Develop a worldwide organization supported by governments to assess developments and to
encourage developers to think about the (long-term) consequences.

Question 4: How likely (question 4.1) and effective (question 4.2) could these actions be in
creating new work and/or income to address technological unemployment by 2050?
Table 3.6 presents the average rating of the suggested actions using the following scale:
5=Solves the Problem; 4=Very Effective; 3=Effective; 2=Little Impact; and 1=Makes It Worse.
Some 215 respondents provided their judgments. The two grey cells identify the most effective
and the most likely actions.
Table 3.6 Average Rating of the Likelihood and Effectiveness of Some Suggested Actions to
Create New Work/Income by 2050
Average Average
Action
Effectiveness likelihood
Retraining programs for more advance skills 3.43 3.20
Require science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and coding in all
3.33 2.87
levels of education
Make increasing national and individual intelligence a national priority 3.27 2.56
Create incentives to attract and create advanced skilled jobs 3.25 3.26
National innovation programs 3.24 3.42
Consolidate public welfare systems into a basic guaranteed income
3.20 2.48
pending national situations
Create Do It Yourself Maker areas, hubs, centers, districts 3.18 3.05
Double national R&D budgets by 2020 (to have impact by 2050) 3.08 2.35
Create incentives for employee ownership plans 3.05 2.72
Make university education free to students 3.04 2.33
Tax the new wealth generated by new technology for public financial support 3.04 2.74
Massive public training in self-employment 3.03 2.56
Government investments in future technology firms with profits from
2.87 2.40
government shares redistributed to unemployed
Question 4.1 and 4.2: No actions were rated as “Solving the Problem” or being “Very Effective”
or “Very Likely.” The following is a distillation of the reasons given by the panel regarding the
effectiveness and likelihood of the suggested actions:
There are some people who are so far behind technologically and emotionally they will never
be able to catch up, but by 2050–60 that race will be moot once strong AI will reach human
capacity.
Requiring STEM and CS education at all levels of education would be a prerequisite for
basic productive life by 2050 but it would not, in itself, be sufficient to mitigate systemic
technological unemployment.
Training people in how to be self-employed would mitigate technological unemployment
because people would have the necessary skill sets to bootstrap and maintain their own jobs.

It is more expensive to create jobs for people whose work contribution is not enough to make
a living than to have them living on welfare.
Free university education in medicine leads to lower-cost medical services and efficiently
develops national talent resources.
Most of these things will be "tried" and most will fail due to lobbying by partisan interest
groups in the governments.
Democratic governments in most parts of the world operate within a limited time frame. They
prefer immediate gains of their policies/programs to meet public expectations. They, as such,
would be hesitant to invest in long-term goals. And the non-democratic governments usually
are not sensitive to the needs of the masses. It is thus rather rare for governments to
incorporate a view of the distant future in their programs.
Question 4.3: Please suggest additional actions to address technological unemployment.

The following is a distillation of 190 suggestions:
We should be thinking in terms of systemic rather than one-off solutions.
If AI develops into a network service that enhances everyone's abilities everywhere, this will
produce a dramatically different (and more positive) outcome than we expect today.
Teach critical thinking, reasoning faculties, compassion, self-employment, enquiry-based
learning, and data in schools.
Preschool programs to ensure that all children have access to technology-based learning
from an early age.
Most-efficient solutions will be grassroots approaches (like Maker and User Bio labs) rather
than top-down solutions.
Self-employment training in schools.
Changes in current economic models; tax consumption, not labor.
Encourage high-tech subsistence farming, DIY on steroids, off all the grids, tele-everything,
obviates the need for jobs.
Localization, self-sufficiency, small communities produce, transport, use, and dispose of their
things.
Lifelong educational programs to keep people's minds busy.
Systems have to have ample niches for people with few/no skills and low
education/intelligence; not only are they not going away, they are as worthy, as human
beings, as anybody else.
Learn how to use the future global brain to become super-professionals, mindful, craving for
harmony instead of hate, and create our own (professional and citizens') circles of social
security instead of depending on government.
Re-examine defense spending.
Public money for financing startups.

Massive investments into very large-scale global programs, as in addressing climate change
and space exploration; the current level of investment is too small to matter societally.
Set challenging objectives for the societies as a whole.
Create a system by which every living person is given the ability to create their own means of
production.
Review intellectual property rights, given new future possibilities.
Campaign finance reform, reduce lobbying.
Question 5: Will wealth from artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies
continue to accumulate income to the very wealthy, increasing the income gaps?
Question 5.1: What is likely to happen by 2050? Table 3.7 presents the ratings of some
suggested developments using the following scale: 0=No Chance to 10=Almost Certain. Some
213 people provided responses.
Table 3.7 Average Likelihood Rating of Some Potential Developments Addressing Income Gaps
Development Likelihood
Very uneven—some areas of the world implement good policies and
8.05
others do not
Major social unrest occurs first, then policy changes are put in place to
6.52
improve this situation
Other 6.50
Sufficient policy changes do not occur, income gaps get worse, and lead to
6.42
social instability
New public-private economic programs, investments, trainings, incentives,
5.18
begin to reduce the gaps
New taxation programs begin to reduce the gaps 4.71
Masses working and spending much time in virtual reality do not care
4.68
about the income gaps
Several AI disasters change world opinion dramatically, slowing
4.01
technology development
The following is a distillation of the panel’s reasons for their answers:

Instability can spread internationally and lead to important wars.
Basic income would be a way to move forward, however it would have to be paired with
micro incentives (passive income) to participate in society in a constructive and useful
manner, even if it is taking place in a "virtual economy."
Decentralization and crowd funding will reduce the imbalance.

After a period of social instability, the speed of technological progress can create new
wealthy people more rapidly and then income gap diversity could reduce.
It is an invalid assumption that AI works to exaggerate income gaps.
The best strategy is to follow Elon Musk's lead and create wealth through the creation of new
innovating and world-changing technologies, rather than through outdated intellectual
property schemes. Intellectual property is becoming increasingly harder to enforce. The
future is open-sourced everything. This means the wealth generated by AI and other tools of
abundance will be available to all at little or no cost. Structural unemployment will be the
desire and the cure, not the problem.
Give people enough, so they don’t care about the income gap; if people cannot participate,
because of a rigidly structured society, then they will eventually cause a social upheaval.
Question 5.2: What future high-impact strategies should be studied today that could
significantly improve the future work-technology-wealth-income dynamics?
The following is a distillation of 197 suggestions:
Using AI to make predictions about these dynamics itself. If we will have strong AI, we will
use it to test strategies and choose the most promising one.
Conduct regular technology forecasting, monitoring, assessments, and implications for
action, and AI economic impact analyses.
Understand and improve the dynamic between productivity growth and income distribution.
The absolute differences are unimportant if the needs and desires of all are met by
appropriate compensation. Perception is a key consideration.
Universal basic income, with different types of incentives, including cash flow projects to see
how it can finance work for well-being so that basic needs are guaranteed.
New economic systems, transition to a post-scarcity society and eliminate money, peer-to-
peer money and value exchange.
More new world-relevant, self-paced, future-oriented simulations, low or no cost online
education for self-actualization, entrepreneurial-oriented, science-based decision making,
specialization like Singularity University.
Alter taxation, flat tax, taxing revenues where they are made, not where the head office of a
company is based, use "A Theory of Justice" for guidance in tax and welfare systems with
improved democratic governance and counter corruption and crime.
Enforce triple bottom line accounting (Profit, People, Planet) and find regulating mechanism
to force the stock-market and banks to take them all into account.
Innovative ways of supporting self-generated jobs (AI/expert systems, finance, technical
assistance, education, marketing, open-source movement, open collective intelligence,
training, facilities provision, technology access through new start-up funding mechanisms).
AI disasters—pacemakers are already being hijacked for ransom. Recall Frank Herbert's
"Butlerian Jihad" against the machines in his DUNE series. The disaster brought back
higher education and training of actual humans and their actual brains.

Enact viable strategies for mitigating the effects of homelessness informed by those who are
already on the street or who interact with them on a daily basis.
Use results of scientific investigations of the outcomes of laws of government to eliminate
harmful/useless laws and enhance laws that solve problems.
Transfer activities to the virtual world.
Look at the former machine tax debate from last century; avoid mistakes of the last century.
Question 6: How necessary or important do you believe some form of guaranteed income
will be in order to end poverty, reduce inequality, and address technological
unemployment?
Question 6.1: Please rate how necessary you believe guaranteed

lifetime income will be by 2050?
Table 3.8 displays the panel’s judgments concerning the necessity of a “guaranteed income”
rank-ordered by the average scores.
Table 3.8 Necessity of Guaranteed Income (number of responses)

Guaranteed income necessity Score
Absolutely necessary 54
Very important 53
Can help 36
Irrelevant 27
Not too necessary 12
The following is a distillation of reasons provided by 202 of the panel’s participants:

With the basic income, people will have less fear and stress, so less spending on national
health care, and social instability and national security budgets will compensate [balance]
the basic income budget.
Saving national budget costs of riots and other costs due to hungry or unhappy people.
People may create more self-employment to reduce social safety budget.
The security of receiving a constant income will allow people to think and plan their future
better.
Very hard to see how people will survive and buy goods and services without some level of
basic income; the alternative is social collapse.
All sophisticated countries in the West have proved that a minimum income is the surest way
to better education, better health, lower crime, better quality of life (cf. the Scandinavian
countries as examples).

It is a form of social investment, ensuring the financial sustainability of many people. The
payback in social stability should not be underestimated.
Will create immense immigration problems in the countries that would implement it.
Machines taking all the jobs and owned by the 1% is the current direction. EITHER the 1%
is taxed to provide a guaranteed income for the 99% or the 1% will have no one to sell to.
The alternative is the DIY on steroids; subsistence high-tech living obviates the need for jobs
and current econometrics; hence, the 1% goes away.
To implement lifetime income will take longer; current workers are used to contributing to
guarantee their retirement in the next 25 to 30 years. Only increasing rates of self-
employment can change the current tendencies.
It all depends on how much employment is created directly and indirectly by synthetic
biology, self-employment via the Internet, and how much new human creativity will result
from labor-saving tech.
The only market-driven income solution I can find is AI-controlled businesses that generate
dividends for dependent shareholders.
Government must not give money for nothing. Welfare programs like this don't help, they
promote and even force people into poverty; incentives to work and get higher education will
be reduced and people will drop out of the competitive economy except for barter and black
markets.
Capitalism as a primary logic will end due to abundance; the consequence is that we no
longer need to focus on making money to live.
New production/consumption cultures will need less money with lifestyles that are outside of
capitalistic trade.
This is a short-term fix and should be implemented soon. Eventually, it will mostly be
irrelevant as the cost of most things will be nearly zero.
False assumption that there is a single baseline that will cater for all "below" this median.
A guaranteed income is not sustainable by any government in the long run. Also, it is not
healthy for the new generations, no motivation to innovate.
Either totally necessary or totally irrelevant, depending on how we choose to distribute
resources in the future.

Question 7: Do you expect that the cost of living will be reduced by 2050 due to future
forms of AI robotic and nanotech manufacturing, 3D/4D printing, future Internet services,
and other future production and distribution systems?
Question 7.1: How much will the cost of living be reduced by 2050 compared with today? The
responses are presented in Table 3.9.
Table 3.9 Potential Changes in the Cost of Living by 2050
Cost of living by 2050 Score

Increase for some areas 46
Reduced for most areas 43
Remain about the same as today 41
Significantly reduced 34
Significantly increased 16
The panel was divided on cost reductions: 77 participants expected the cost of living to be
reduced significantly or reduced in most areas, while 62 participants expected the cost of living
to be significantly increased or increased in most areas.
The following is a distillation of 195 responses given by the participants:
The costs of goods have been reducing for decades. The new techs are miniaturizing and
improving the performance, productivity of everything. On site 3D printing and fairly soon
molecular manufacturing will greatly accelerate this trend.
Not only the cost of items could go down, but items will last much longer (e.g., nanotech
coating) and have multi functions (mobile phones). Hence the rate of buying things could
also be reduced.
Since more can be done for less work, far more efficiently, and since these tools will be
largely open-sourced and widely available, the total cost in terms of time and money will be
marginal.
Physical products "going to zero" in many cases, but food is likely to remain expensive, and
housing would be hard to reduce
New form of materials such as graphene and others may make buildings, clothes, and city
structures stronger than ever. Education and social services may become almost free with
MOOC and AI robots. Energy may become very cheap with solar clothes/tents being saved in
home energy saving systems.
Increase in the cost of living comes from dramatic unbalance in the global economy. So... If
the unbalance goes away, the cost of living will go down.

Technologies for circular/green/eco-friendly production will allow the use and reuse of
materials that are normally discarded today and will reduce costs; lower mobility costs will
be facilitated through AI (fuel/operational costs) and telecommuting.
The digital life and 3D/4D printing will reduce shipping costs. When renewable energy
becomes the majority, energy costs will fall. However, some areas will have resource
shortages, causing some increasing costs in those areas.
The cost will remain the same, however the qualitative conditions of living will improve
thanks to AI and other new technologies.
No amount of automation can increase the amount of coastline available for putting down
cottages.
Climate change will increase the cost of living, no matter what technologies we are using for
manufacturing.
Tech will not be evenly available across the world and within countries.
Even if manufacturing cost will be reduced, other cost related to new added value services
will make the total costs increase.
The cost of living is a relative thing. Most things will become cheaper as we learn how to
make them cheaper—finite resources may get more expensive temporarily, but the meaning
of "living" and its requirements are likely to change accordingly.
Question 8: What big changes by 2050 could affect all this?
Question 8.1: What high-impact events, developments, surprises, wild cards, or black swans
could change the future work-technology relationship?
The following is a distillation of 199 answers provided by the panel:
Terrorism using WMDs including bioterrorism leading to a neo-Luddite and science
backlash with regulation against technological development.
Data Fukushima.
Political instability, partly religiously driven and partly due to economic divisions.
Organized crime uses AI and other advanced technologies leading to an insecure world.
Massive, state-level cyber-warfare.
Local renewable energy sources and zero-energy solutions (e.g., passive houses) become the
norm, making power grids and large central power stations less important.
Cyberlife dominates physical human life.
Cultural acceptance of not working.
3D-printed food, indoor aquaculture.
Bio-mineralized structures.
All able to become augmented geniuses.

Atomically precise manufacturing, molecular assemblers.

Brain-to-machine and brain-to brain interfaces become the norm.
Global warming accelerates, approaching greenhouse runaway unites the world.
Permanent human space habitats opening “unlimited” energy and resources.
Global movement toward non-material sense of life.
Success of low energy nuclear reactions, also called cold fusion.
A more intelligent and better organized robot society, first in parallel, then dominant, and
eventually giving some humans the possibility to live in zoos.
A huge meteorite risk will initiate a coordinated global effort to deal with the problem,
resulting to great technological breakthroughs and long-term peace.
Intelligent self-reproducing robots spread like a virus to all corners of the world.
AI threats and human-machine wars.
Extraterrestrial contact.
Longevity treatments, radical health life extension, mentally productive "seniors.".
Question 8.2: If the future AI/Robot economy creates the abundant wealth many expect by 2050,
how should it be distributed? Please explain briefly how this might be accomplished.
The following is a distilled sample of over 200 answers received from the panel:
Low but sufficient guaranteed annual equal income via governments to compensate for the
fact that we will not need 70% of the labor force by 2050. This could be paid for by taxes on
consumption, automation technologies, carbon, Internet transactions, robots that would let
people focus on making their lives and others better rather than having to focus on economic
survival.
Basic income, as the Swiss are contemplating, combined with investments for free or low-
cost access to health services, energy, education (for the very young to the very old), water,
transportation, communications, housing, food, 3D-printer time/resources, and other do-it-
yourself entrepreneurial activities.
Give everyone shares in the GNP, while maintaining incentives for work that still could be in
demand.
A certain percentage must go back to the stakeholders that created it; the rest to the society.
Workers owning shares of the companies, ownership of worker robots and their income.
The same way wealth is distributed today: income tax, profit tax (on companies) etc. Today’s
system is the product of many decades of development and shouldn’t be easily overthrown—
just adapted as needed; We still need incentives to advance.
Combination of three ways in a private enterprise/capitalistic society: a) legislation that
limits the earnings potential of the few (owners/inventors) in both public and private
companies ; b) taxation on wealth and/or by applying a progressive tax bracket system; and
c) mandatory employee stock ownership for all companies over, say, 10 people.

Nations are not charities; each will keep its share and maybe give something for
development aid. However, it is not to be expected that shares will be distributed equally.
Instead of a central distribution control system, radical distribution of abundance will
happen organically and automatically in the absence of enforceable intellectual property
rights.
Global networks and AI can optimize wealth distribution based on big data analysis and
direct voting.
By creative output by individuals that improve the human condition; financial incentives for
those that create collective benefits; it should go to those who create and sustain the wealth;
distributed to those who earned it, whether owners, stockholders, distributors.
High taxation of productive and creative individuals and corporations could stunt the growth
of the very technologies that would eliminate poverty and provide food and shelter to many.
Human consciousness melded with machine consciousness will create a civilization where
risk-reward is no longer operant and cost-benefit is obvious.
Smart contracts, AI, peer-to-peer, and blockchain (used by Bitcoin) style financial systems
connected to personal devices.
We need dialogue on creating basic income formulae.
Question 8.3: How might economic systems begin to change?

The following is a distillation of 197 answers:
When distribution of scarcity is overtaken by distribution of abundance.
We can either wait until the current system breaks or create a safety net now to prevent
complete social upheaval/chaos.
Economic systems are already changing; it’s politics that will need to catch up.
Collaborative peer-to-peer networks will transform capital/money relations.
Hyper-connected world economy will emerge with global system such as crypto currency;
cashless, non-state "coin."
A series of global bank crises will eventually create trust on independent digital currencies.
If 10% of people are productive enough for sustaining the entire (100%) of humankind, then
new products and services will be created for the 90% in adult "day-care" activities to
release enormous innovation and creativity.
Increase in participatory democracies, protecting the environment, promoting research and
creativity, and awareness of the social responsibility of all to all.
Changing the taxation system, and the productivity-remuneration relationship.
First, a kind of sustainable capitalism and then, a new kind of circular, recycling, people-
planet-profit economy.
Through revolution or through democratic change or, more likely, it will not change until the
next major crisis or the next two or three major crises.

Some nations implement basic income for everyone, then other states will follow.
Disempowerment of corporations when people no longer "have to work to live."
More network communities will transform hierarchical systems into decentralized ones.
Increased concentration of wealth to the top 1%, then under massive pressure and crisis
government interventions and crowd self-organization; e.g., local food, services, with local
alternative currencies.
The masses become self-sufficient, organized for creating basic needs and some surplus via
free enterprise, free expression and great creativity with a minimum requirement of
"responsible" mandatory work such as guarantee each individual's self-support.
Public pressure, having elective candidate who sees the big picture, and by actually voting
on Election Day.
Reducing the costs of goods and services is equivalent to rising income levels for everyone.
Through increasing automation, human activity will increasingly shift to fun and creative
pursuits—to self-actualization. After improved technologies help restore the ecological
systems, more radical and powerful technologies will continue to flourish, grow, and expand
beyond Earth into high frontiers unknown.
Question 9: What alternative scenario axes and themes should be written connecting today with
2050, describing cause-and-effect links and decisions that are important to consider today?
Question 9.1: What scenarios axes or assumptions should shape useful scenarios on the future of
work-technology dynamics for 2050? The panel was asked to check all that apply. Table 3.10
summarizes the votes.
Table 3.10 Scenarios Axes Rank-Ordered by the Number of Votes Received

Number
Scenarios Axes
of votes
High to Low Human Well-being (including health, guaranteed basic
111
needs, and clean natural environment)
High to Low Wealth Creation from Technology Integration 83
High to Low Unemployment 77
Human Intelligence Technological Augmentation 74
High to Low Use of Guaranteed Income Programs 59
High to Low Artificial Intelligence Disasters 44
Other 13

The following is a distillation of the panel’s reasons given for their answers and additional
suggestions:
Economic decoupling or "opting out" should be considered; i.e., will certain communities
elect to drop out of the global economy entirely? Hyper-localized, autonomous
communities—imagine the hi-tech equivalent of a monastery, but occurring at a variety of
scales from neighborhood up to city-state levels.
Geo-social axis: Or social acceptance axis. At one extreme, overwhelming global acceptance
of the benefits of AI/robotics/IoT, and at the other extreme, many see the use of such
technologies as a loss of control and behaviors considered abhorrent and many work to
quash the technology.
Other axes to consider: draconian government intervention is the one that concerns me most.
General artificial intelligence will be an all-or-nothing scenario. They'll either cause
catastrophic (perhaps existential) damage, or they'll be an unbelievable boon. There's not
much room in the middle.
Question 9.2: What themes, foci, titles would be the most useful for the 2050 scenarios that would
expose what we don't know today, that we should explore to know how to build a better future for
the world-technology dynamic? The rating used a scale from 1=Least Useful to 5=Most Useful.
Table 3.11 displays the themes’ usefulness as rated by 196 of the panel’s participants.
Table 3.11 Themes to be Considered for the 2050 Scenarios

Theme Rating
Human Well-being 2050 3.97
Other (see suggestions below) 3.90
The New Economy 2050 3.74
2050 Global Success: More Work Created than Lost 3.21
Humanity Becoming Augmented Geniuses Changes Nature of Work 3.12
Home/Community Production of Stuff and Food; Bartering/Time-banking 3.08
50% Long-term Structural Unemployment by 2050 3.03
High-Tech Rural Autonomous Subsistence Migration 2.76
The following is a distilled sample of the panel’s reasons or additional comments on their
answers:
Rapid global acceptance of the usefulness of AI/Robotics/IoT or a widespread cultural and
religious rejection? And to what extent will humans really be willing to give over their entire
lives and trust to an AI/robotic system?
How will people engage in policy decisions in 2050?
Changing our understanding of the relationship between work and well-being.

The symbiotic society; the tech-human factor.

Money-neutral society in circular economy.
Humankind's optimized civilization for the space industry; optimize positive benefits to Earth
and humankind from the future space epoch.
Doubling or tripling of the faction of the population having a first-world living standard,
with increased productivity etc. and issues of aging.
If we get anywhere near 50% structural unemployment we are doomed to a long period of
darkness.
Question 9.3: What would make these scenarios worth your time to read them and share with
others?
The following is a distillation of 189 answers:
New insights, punchy implications, the WOW factor!!!
Interaction of technological changes and values and how society sees itself.
Connection with the present human nature, with its desires, hopes and fears.
Connection with what is really happening as well as Innovations still not yet developed.
Use of Maslow’s needs to guide and structure healthy life.
Evolutionary psychology and social dynamics of the causes for the problems: tendencies to
hierarchies, centralized control, exclusionism, and tribalism. Address resistance to change,
group-think, and fear of being an outstanding individual.
Uncovering new aspects and perspectives of the impact of technology on human life (work
and leisure)—in particular, potential risky/unwanted situations/conditions ... with specific
recommendations for actions today.
Better conceptual tools for thinking about an information society.
Endorsement from financial luminaries.
Challenge basic concepts, such as unemployment, income gaps, technological displacement,
classic economics, etc.
Applicable to different contexts, with different scope levels (global, macro meso micro) and
include roadmaps.
The idea of personal progress.
Show the readers how the scenarios directly relate to their children's jobs.
Totally new concepts, ideas, instead of (un)employment, new purposes of work.
Roadmap to transform today into tomorrow with required investments.
More visual illustrations and videos.
Future technological dynamism and rapid growth of the technology market.

Roadmap that shows how AI and new technologies could improve the human condition and
the quality of the natural environment.
Maybe try a short story competition.
Interactive discussions in the right fora with the right people.
Question 10: Other comments to improve this study?
The following is a distillation of 193 comments received from the panellists:

I found this questionnaire thought-provoking and had to revise some of my working models
and hypotheses in my field's work.
Consider short videos of the most important key insights for much broader dissemination and
use in conferences, universities, schools, etc.
Experts who participate in that process should function as loudspeakers for your project and
discussed the issues. Also include social media.
Workshops could also benefit from the raw data and ideas being collected here.
I congratulate the organizers of this Real Time Delphi for the kind of questions they have
managed to present in this survey…the overall result is really worthwhile.
Really a nice work; periodic survey will be beneficial to amend policy level and strategic
decisions. Can we keep the discussions ongoing? Revisit annually?
Engage corporate and union organizations management as well as successful high-tech
companies in the dialogue and the entire process.
I realized this project is really important for making a better world. Please add more chances
to gather and share as many as possible.
I think this is a good way of collecting ideas and direction. I would organize a conference
with futurists and politicians to discuss the results. This should be done every two to three
years to be able to see differences / changes and, if needed, adjust recommendations.
We need to take these global results into local analysis, through the development of specific
regional situation analysis by The Millennium Project Nodes that would be later discussed in
the planned workshops around the world.
Very well prepared and very useful for decision making.
This study is nicely focused on very basic issues.
This is a very good stuff!! Please contact me anytime to help spread the word.
* * *

Next Steps in the Future Work/Technology 2050 Study
The results of this Real-Time Delphi will be used as input to the construction of alternative
scenarios and road maps. These drafts will be made available for comment and feedback to those
who participated in this Real-Time Delphi and additional experts. Based on the feedback, the
scenarios will be rewritten. Strategies will be drawn from the final scenarios and used as inputs
to national planning workshops. These will be initiated by some of the 56 Millennium Project
Node Chairs around the world and others who express interest during this process. The results of
the workshops will be integrated and distilled and made available in a variety of media for public
discussion.

APPENDICES
The Millennium Project Governance
The Millennium Project Board of Directors
John W. McDonald Concepción Olavarrieta

Chair Vice Chair
Jerome Glenn Elizabeth Florescu

Executive Director Treasurer
Charles Perrottet Theodore Gordon

Secretary Member
Cristina Puentez-Markides Philippe Destatte

Member Member
The Millennium Project Planning Committee

This committee gives guidance, works to insure objectivity and integration of a broad range of
views, cultures, and diverse expertise. It is composed of all the Node Chairs and Co-Chairs listed
in this appendix plus additional Futurists: Clem Bezold, Peter Bishop, Francisco Dallmeier,
Hazel Henderson, Riel Miller, Charles Perrottet, Cristina Puentes-Markides, David Rejeski,
Stanley G. Rosen, and Paul Saffo.

The Millennium Project Node Chairs and Co-Chairs
Argentina Bulgaria
Miguel Angel Gutierrez Mariana Todorova
Latin American Center for Globalization & Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Prospective Sofia, Bulgaria
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Boyan Ivantchev
Australia Advance Equity and School for Finance and
Anita Kelleher Insurance
Designer Futures Sofia, Bulgaria
Inglewood, Australia
Canada
Azerbaijan Karl Schroeder
Reyhan Huseynova Idea Couture
Azerbaijan Future Studies Society Toronto, ON, Canada
Baku, Azerbaijan
Mark Lang
Ali M. Abbasov Google, Inc.
Minister of Comm. & IT Toronto, ON, Canada
Baku, Azerbaijan
Caribbean
Bolivia Yarima Sosa, FUNGLODE, Santo Domingo
Veronica Agreda Beatriz Bechara de Borge
Franz Tamayo University - UNIFRANZ Observatorio del Caribe Colombiano
La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba &Santa Cruz, Cartagena, Colombia
Bolivia
Central Europe
Brazil Pavel Novacek
Arnoldo José de Hoyos and Rosa Alegria Prague, Bratislava, and Warsaw
São Paulo Catholic University
São Paulo, Brazil Chile
Luis Lira
Brussels-Area Especialista en Desarrollo y Planificación
Philippe Destatte Territorial
The Destree Institute Santiago, Chile
Namur, Wallonia, Belgium

China Finland
Zhouying Jin Sirkka Heinonen
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Finland Futures Research Centre
Beijing, China Helsinki, Finland
Rusong Wang France

Chinese Academy of Sciences Saphia Richou
Beijing, China Prospective-Foresight Network
Paris, France
Colombia
Francisco José Mojica Germany
Universidad Externado de Colombia Cornelia Daheim
Bogotá, Colombia Future Impacts Consulting
Cologne, Germany
Croatia Greece
Zoran Aralica and Diana Šimić Stavros Mantzanakis, Phemonoe
Croatian Institute for Future Studies Lab/Emetris, SA
Zagreb, Croatia Epaminondas Christofilopoulos, Phemonoe
Lab
Czech Republic Thessaloniki, Greece
Pavel Novacek
Palacky University Gulf Region
Olomouc, Czech Republic Ali Ameen
Kuwait Oil Company
Dominican Republic Kuwait City, Kuwait
Yarima Sosa
Fundación Global Democracia & Desarrollo, Hungary
FUNGLODE Erzsébet Nováky
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic Corvinus University of Budapest
Budapest, Hungary
East Africa
Arthur Muliro Mihaly Simai
Society for International Development Academy of Science
Dar es Salaam, Kampala, Nairobi Budapest, Hungary
Egypt India
Kamal Zaki Mahmoud Shaeer Mohan K. Tikku
Egyptian-Arab Futures Research Futurist / Journalist
Association New Delhi, India
Cairo, Egypt

Iran Republic of Korea

Mohsen Bahrami Youngsook Park
Dir., Iranian Space Organization UN Future Forum
Ministry of Communication and Information Seoul, Republic of Korea
Technology, and
Amirkabir University of Technology Malaysia
Tehran, Iran Carol Wong
Genovasi, Office of the Prime Minister
Israel Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Yair Sharan
The EPI/FIRST group Syed Isa Syed Alwi Al Hindwan
Jerusalem, Israel Algaetech International
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Aharon Hauptman
The Unit for Technology and Society Mexico
Foresight Concepción Olavarrieta
Tel-Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel Nodo Mexicano. El Proyecto Del Milenio,
A.C.
Italy Mexico City, Mexico
Mauro Gatti
Sapienza University of Rome Montenegro
Rome, Italy Milan Maric
Director, S&T Montenegro
Simone Di Zio Podgorica, Montenegro
Università G. d’Annunzio
Pescara, Italy Sanja Vlahovic
Minister of Science
Japan Podgorica, Montenegro
Shinji Matsumoto
CSP Corporation Pakistan
Tokyo, Japan Puruesh Chaudhary
AGAHI and Foresight Lab
Kenya Islamabad, Pakistan
Arthur Muliro
Society for International Development Panama
Nairobi, Kenya Gabino Ayarza Sánchez
City of Knowldege Foundation
Clayton, Ancón, Panama City, Panama

Peru Slovakia
Alan Garcia Ivan Klinec
Government & Public Management Institute Academy of Science
San Martin de Porres University Bratislava, Slovakia
Lima, Peru
Slovenia
Fernando Ortega Blaz Golob
Peruvian Association of Prospective and GoForesightInstitute
Future Studies Ljubljana, Slovenia
Lima, Peru
South Africa
Poland Rasigan Maharajh
Norbert Kolos and Piotr Jutkiewicz Institute for Economic Research on
4CF – Strategic Foresight Innovation
Warsaw, Poland Tshwane University of Technology
Tshwane, South Africa
Romania
Adrian Pop Southeast Europe
Centre for Regional and Global Studies Blaz Golob
Romanian Scientific Society for Belgrade, Ljubljana, Podgorica, Zagreb
Interdisciplinary Research
Bucharest, Romania Spain
Ibon Zugasti
Russia PROSPEKTIKER, S.A.
Nadezhda Gaponenko Donostia-San Sebastian, Spain
Russian Institute for Economy,
Policy & Law Tanzania
Moscow, Russia Ali Hersi
Society for International Development
Silicon Valley Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Brock Hinzmann
Futurist Consultant Turkey
Palo Alto, CA, USA Ufuk Tarhan
M-GEN Future Planning Center
John J. Gottsman Istanbul, Turkey
Clarity Group
San Francisco, CA, USA Uganda
Arthur Muliro
Society for International Development
Kampala, Uganda

United Arab Emirates Arts/Media-Node

Hind Almualla Kate McCallum
Knowledge and Human Development c3: Center for Conscious Creativity
Authority Los Angeles, CA, USA
Dubai, UAE
Cyber Node, The Internet
United Kingdom In transition
Rohit Talwar
Fast Future Research Networks
London, England, UK Foresight Europe Network: Chair, Blaz
Golab; Vice Chair, Cornelia Daheim
Uruguay
Lydia Garrido Red Iberoamericana de Prospectiva
Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias (RIBER): Chair, Leonel Fernández; CEO,
Sociales - FLACSO Jose Cordeiro
Montevideo, Uruguay
Venezuela
José Cordeiro
Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela
Caracas, Venezuela

CURRENT AND PREVIOUS SPONSORS
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt (2013-2015)

Alan F. Kay & Hazel Henderson Foundation for Social Innovation, St. Augustine, FL
(1996-2000)
Amana Institute, São Paulo, Brazil (2004)
Applied Materials, Santa Clara, California (2002–09)
Army Environmental Policy Institute, Arlington, Virginia (1996–2011)
Azerbaijan State Economic University (2009–2015)
Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan (2013)
City of Gimcheon (via UN Future Forum, South Korea) (2009–10)
Deloitte & Touche LLP, Cleveland, Ohio (1998–09)
The Diwan of His Highness the Amir of Kuwait (2010–11)
Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan (1996–97, 2005–06)
Foundation for the Future, Bellevue, Washington (1997–98, 1999–2000, 2007–08)
General Motors, Warren, Michigan (1998–2003)
Government of the Republic of Korea (via UN Future Forum) (2007–08)
The Hershey Company (2008–09)
Hughes Space and Communications, Los Angeles, California (1997–98, 2000)
Kuwait Oil Company (via Dar Almashora for Consulting) (2003–04)
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (via Dar Almashora for Consulting) (2005–06)
Ministry of Communications, Republic of Azerbaijan (2007–11)
Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Azerbaijan (2013)
Ministry of Education and Presidential Commission on Education, Republic of Korea (2007)
Ministry of Education, Azerbaijan (2013)
Monsanto Company, St. Louis, Missouri (1996–98)
Motorola Corporation, Schaumburg, Illinois (1997)
Pioneer Hi-Bred International, West Des Moines, Iowa (1997)
Rockefeller Foundation (2008–13)
Shell International (Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum Company), London, U.K. (1997)
UNESCO, Paris, France (1995, 2008–10)
United Nations Development Programme, New York, (1993–94)

United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan (1992–95, 1999–2000)

Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. (2000–03)
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. (1992–93, 1996–97)
Universiti Sains Malaysia (2011)
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (Foresight & Governance Project),
Washington, D.C. (2002)
World Bank (via World Perspectives, Inc., 2008; and GEF, 2012)
In-kind Support:
FUNGLODE, Dominican Republic
Google
Smithsonian Institution
UNESCO
World Future Society

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Executive Summary
Figure 1. Initial Draft Concept for Discussion of an Integrated Global Strategy…………..……..6
Figure 2. State of the Future Index 2015……………………………………………….…………7
Figure 3. Where We Are Winning……………………………………………………….…..……9
Figure 4. Where We Are Losing or There Is Little or No Progress……………………….……..10
Box 1. Variables Included in the Computation of the 2015 SOFI…………………………...……8
Global Challenges
Figure 1.1 Global Challenges……………………………………………………………..……..13
Figure 1.2 Improved water source (% of population with access)………………………..……..29
Figure 1.3 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)…………………30
Figure 1.4 Freedom rights (number of countries rated "free")………………………….……….49
Figure 1.5 Internet penetration by Region……………………………………………………….64
Figure 1.6 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)……………..…..….80
Figure 1.7 Health expenditure per capita (world, current $)………………………..….…….…..96
Figure 1.8 Likelihood of education and learning possibilities by 2030…………………..…….102
Figure 1.9 Terrorism incidents……………………………………………………………..…...115
Figure 1.10 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating…....156
Figure 1.11 Global Challenges and SOFI Process………………………………………...……157
State of the Future Index

Figure 2.1 State of the Future Index 2015……………………………………………….……..160
Figure 2.2 State of the Future Index 2015 with 25% improvements of
Energy Efficiency and Income Inequality between 2016 and 2025…..………….160
Figure 2.3 Where we are winning………………………………………………………………162
Figure 2.4 Where we are losing or there is no progress………………………………...………163
Figure 2.5 2014 SOFI Czech Republic………………………………………………...……….165
Figure 2.6 2014 SOFI Hungary………………………………………….……………………..165
Figure 2.7 2014 SOFI Poland…………………………………………………….…………….166
Figure 2.8 2014 SOFI Slovakia…………………………………………………......………….166
Figure 2.9 V4 2014 SOFI……………………………………………......………..................…167
Figure 2.10 2014 SOFI Comparison among V4 countries……………………………………..167
Figure 2.11 GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $)……………………...………168
Figure 2.12 Economic income inequality (Income share held by highest 10%)……………….168
Figure 2.13 Unemployment, total (% of world labor force) ……………………………..…….169

Figure 2.14 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) ………..…….….169
Figure 2.15 CPIA transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector rating...….170
Figure 2.16 Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current $, billions) ………..……….170
Figure 2.17 R&D expenditures (% of GDP) ……………………………………………..…….171
Figure 2.18 Population growth (annual %)……………………………………………….…….171
Figure 2.19 Life expectancy at birth (years) ………………………………………………..….172
Figure 2.20 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) …………………………………...….172
Figure 2.21 Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) ………………………...…….173
Figure 2.22 Health expenditure per capita (current $)………………………………………….173
Figure 2.23 Physicians (per 1,000 people) ……………………………………………….…….174
Figure 2.24 Improved water source (% of population with access) ………………….….…….174
Figure 2.25 Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters) ………..…….175
Figure 2.26 Biocapacity per capita (gha) ……………………………………………..….…….175
Figure 2.27 Forest area (% of land area) ……………………………………………………….176
Figure 2.28 Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr) ……………………….….176
Figure 2.29 Energy efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use
(constant 2011 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent)) ………………..…….………….177
Figure 2.30 Electricity production from renewable sources,
excluding hydroelectric (% of total) ……………………………….…………….177
Figure 2.31 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) ……………………….178
Figure 2.32 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) ………………………………………….178
Figure 2.33 Share of high-skilled employment (%)…………………………………………….179
Figure 2.34 Number of wars and armed conflicts………………………………………...…….179
Figure 2.35 Terrorism incidents………………………………………………………..........….180
Figure 2.36 Freedom rights (number of countries rated "free")…………………….………….180
Figure 2.37 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments
(% of members) ……………………………………………………….............….181
Figure 2.38 Internet users (per 100 people) ……………………………………………...…….181
Box 2.1 Variables Included in the Computation of the 2015 SOFI……………….……………161

Box 2.2 Variables included in the computation of V4 2014 SOFI for
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia………………………………….……...……164
Work/Tech 2050
Figure 3.1 Average Rate of Unemployment by 2050 by 10-year increments ………...……….185
Table 3.1 Age Group of Participants…………………………………..…………...…………..184

Table 3.2 Respondents’ Degree of Expertise in Futures Research…………………..…………184
Table 3.3 Institutional Affiliation of the Participants…………………….....................……….184

Table 3.4 Average Rating of Technologies Likely to Replace Rather

than Create More Jobs/Work by 2050….....................……………………….…….187
Table 3.5 Average Rating of the Factors Thought to Help Create Jobs and
Prevent Mass Unemployment by 2050……………………………….…………….188
Table 3.6 Average Rating of the Likelihood and Effectiveness of
Some Suggested Actions to Create New Work/Income by 2050…………………..191
Table 3.7 Average Likelihood Rating of Some Potential Developments
Addressing Income Gaps……………………………………………………….…..193
Table 3.8 Necessity of Guaranteed Income (number of responses)……………...…………….195
Table 3.9 Potential Changes in the Cost of Living by 2050……………………….….………..197
Table 3.10 Scenarios Axes Rank-Ordered by the Number of Votes Received……….…..……201
Table 3.11 Themes to be Considered for the 2050 Scenarios………………………..…..……..202

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development Bank

AfDB African Development Bank
AI artificial intelligence
AIDS acquired immunodeficieny syndrome
AGI artificial general intelligence
ART antiretroviral therapy
ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations
ATM automated teller machine
ATT Arms Trade Treaty
BMGF Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and China
CAR Central African Republic
CCS carbon capture and sequestration
CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
CELAC Community of Latin American and Caribbean States
CEO chief executive officer
CIS collective intelligence system
CO2 carbon dioxide
DAC Development Assistance Committee (of OECD)
DALY disability-adjusted life years
DDOS distributed denial of service
DOE Department of Energy (U.S.)
DOTS Directly Observed Treatment Short course (on TB)
DPT diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EC European Community
ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
EIU Economist Intelligence Unit
EP European Parliament
EPA Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.)
ETS Emission Trading Scheme
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
FAS Federation of American Scientists
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation (U.S.)

FDA Food and Drug Administration (U.S.)

FDI foreign direct investment
FGM/C female genital mutilation/cutting
GDP gross domestic product
GFIS Global Futures Intelligence System
GGGI Global Gender Gap Index
GHG greenhouse gas
GM/GMO genetically modified organism
GNI gross national income
GPS Global Positioning System
Gt gigaton
GW gigawatt
HBV hepatitus B virus
HCV hepatitus C virus
HEU heavily enriched uranium
HIV human immunodeficiency virus
HPAI highly pathogenic avian influenza
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
ICT information and communication technology
IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
IDP internally displaced people
IEA International Energy Agency
IEP Institute for Economics and Peace
IGCI Interpol Global Complex for Innovation
IICA Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMO International Maritime Organization
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISO International Organization for Standardization
IWPR Institute for Women's Policy Research
MDG Millennium Development Goal
MDR-TB multidrug-resistant TB
MENA Middle East and North Africa
MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MWI many worlds interpretation
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (U.S.)
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NEET not in employment, education, or training
NGO nongovernmental organization

OAS Organization of American States

ODA official development assistance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OLPC One Laptop Per Child
PPP purchasing power parity
R&D research and development
RTD Real-Time Delphi
S&T science and technology
SIMAD single individual massively destructive
SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
SME small and medium-size enterprise
SOCTA Serious and Organised Crime Threat Assessment
SOFI State of the Future Index
TNC transnational corporation
TOC transnational organized crime
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
UNHCR United Nations High Commission on Refugees
UNODC UN Office on Drugs and Crime
UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the
Near East
U.S. United States
WHO World Health Organization
WTO World Trade Organization
XDR-TB extensively drug-resistant TB

OTHER MILLENNIUM PROJECT RESEARCH
The Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS)
The Millennium Project is integrating all of its information, groups, and software into a "Global
Futures Intelligence System" (GFIS). This gives users’ a new way to participate in The
Millennium Project and to have access to all of our resources in one place. Those who buy a one-
year subscription can interact with all the elements of the system, make suggestions, initiate
discussions with experts around the world, and search through a wealth of futures research
(equivalent to over 10,000 pages) and access 39 futures research methods (equivalent to over
1,300 pages). The text has built-in Google translation with 52 languages.
The material published in the annual State of the Future is being updated in GFIS on a
continual basis with new data and details on the research that is in the report. The same is true
with Futures Research Methodology, so that users do not need to wait for the new version. Some
Real-Time Delphi studies and other research are also being made available as soon as they are
completed, and will be accessible for discussion of conclusions.
The GFIS is not just new software, vast information, and
global experts; it is also a system to produce synergies among these
three elements for greater intelligence than their separate values.
It is rather a global intelligence utility that provides decision
makers, advisors, and educators with insights that reflect the
consensus and/or range of views on the important issues of our
time.
For more details and subscription information see:

http://www.millennium-project.org

Millennium Project reports provide a context for global thinking and potential for improved
understanding of how humanity could work together for the best possible future. More detailed
information on the Millennium Project publications is available on the Project’s web site
www.millennium-project.org under “Books and Reports.”
Futures Research Methodology––V 3.0

The largest, most comprehensive collection of
internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods
and tools to explore future possibilities ever
assembled in one resource.
Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor
of the method or by a significant contributor to the
method’s evolution.
It contains 39 chapters totaling about 1,300 pages.
Each of the 37 chapters contains:
- an executive overview of each method's history
- description of the method
- primary and alternative usages
- strengths and weaknesses
ISBN: 978-0-9818941-1-9 - uses in combination with other methods, and
Price: $49.50 US dollars speculation about future evolution of the method
available as electronic download or CD - some also have appendixes with applications, links
to software, and sources for further information.
FUTUROS—Foresight Encyclopedic Dictionary
FUTURES is the most comprehensive futures studies

encyclopedic dictionary that exists to date. It
comprises over 1,000 terms and methods used in
futures studies.
The work was initiated and coordinated by
Concepción Olavarrieta, with review and edits of
terms done by Theodore Gordon and Jerome Glenn,
and with the contribution of more than 500 futurists
from The Millennium Project network.
It is available in English and Spanish, as electronic
ISBN: 978-607-00-4892-0 download or CD
Price: $50 US dollars
Previous State of the Future reports are available in Arabic, Chinese, English, Persian, French,
Korean, and Spanish.

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State of The Future

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The Millennium Project

JEROME C. GLENN, ELIZABETH FLORESCU,

A lucid, thought-provoking, strategically oriented exploration of the transforming world order.

So important for many people around the world.

Strategic Planning for the Planet… remarkably articulate and prescient.

Certainly, the guide to make better decisions and achieve success.

ISBN: 978-0-9882639-2-5 Library of Congress Control No: 98-646672

STATE OF THE FUTURE INDEX…………………………………………….…………158

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Jerome C. Glenn Elizabeth Florescu The Millennium Project Team

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Figure 1. Initial Draft Concept for Discussion of an Integrated Global Strategy

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Figure 2. State of the Future Index 2015

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Box 1. Variables Included in the Computation of 2015 SOFI

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Figure 3. Where We Are Winning

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Figure 4. Where We Are Losing or There Is Little or No Progress

The following section on 15 Global Challenges is a very concentrated set of data,

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Figure 1.1 Global Challenges

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Global Challenge 1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all

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 Successful community-scale projects around the world

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Figure 1.2 Improved water source (% of population with access)

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Global Challenge 3. How can population growth and resources be brought

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