1.

Step 1
Here use probability for a following desine events
Product from warehouse A=A
Product from warehouse B=B
Product from warehouse C=C
D= detective product
D’= good product

Step 2

P(D|A)= 0.03
P(A∩D)= 0.009
P(A)= 0,30

P(D’|A)= 0.97
P(A∩D’)= 0.291

P(D|B)= 0.05
P(B∩D)= 0.01
P(B)= 0,20

P(D’|B)= 0.95
P(B∩D’)= 0.19
P(D|C)= 0.02
P(C∩D)= 0.01
P(C)= 0,50

P(D’|C)= 0.95
P(C∩D’)= 0.49

Step 3
a) Probability that product received from customer is from warehouse ‘C’ given
that it is detective
=P (C|D)
P (C ∩ D)
= P( D)
0.01
= 0.01+0.01+0.009
=0.3448
 b) =P (A|D’)
P ( A ∩ D')
= P(D ' )
0.291
= 0.291+ 0.19+0.49
=0.29969
=0.2997

2. Step 1
Given 3 red balls and 3 white balls spread evenly into two bones. In each step
each ball is dawn from the box and then exchanged.
- Also : Xn is the state of the system after ‘n’ steps.
a) yes, Xn is a maskov chain due to the following facts and fall filling the
reqired criteria.
Let us choose Xn for n≥0
Xn = { no of white balls the fivt bon after folloer n steps}
Xn is obviously a random vacialle that determines the state of the system after
getting n steps followed.
If we had known the number of balls present in the bon of a particular type
then we would have known each and everything about the two bones.
b) to find out transition motion we have
P(Xn+1 = j / Xn=I, Xn-1= i n-1,…..,X1 = i ,Xo = i0)
= P(Xn+1 = j / Xn=i) V states i0,i1,…..,in-1 when n ≥ 0
Clearly exchanging a balls from one box to the other doesn’t leave any effect
on the number y balls present in each of the bones as compared to initial
condition we obseve that the state X0 where we have evenly distributed two
bones.
X0 ~ Binomial (3, 1/3)
Probability of choosing one ball from one box (of any who)= 1/3
 The probability that we increate/deciense the number of white balls by
more than one is zero
P(Xn+1 = j/Xi=i) = 0 V j < (i-1) i.e, j > (n+1)
For i=0, P(Xn+1 = j / X0 = 0) =0 V j<-1 (admissible) when j > 1
 Similady, i=1
P(Xn+1 = j / Xi=1) V j < 0 & J > 2
These, we get at the points of directinuity

P(Xn+1=j/Xn=i) = ( 3i ) 2 ; j = i-1
i 3−i
2( )(
3 )
;j=i
3

( 3−i3 ) 2 ; j=i+1
We know that ∫ ij=0 (mutually exlusive)
I,j s.t |i-j|≥2
P0.0 = 0 P0,1=1 p0,2=0 P0,3=0
P1,0 =1/4 p1,1=4/9 p2,2=4/4 p1,3=0
P2,0=0 p2,1=4.4 p2,2=4/4 p2,3=1/4
P3,0=0 p3,1=0 p3,2=1 p3,3=0
This transition matrix
0 1 0 0
(
P= 1/ 4 4 /4 4 /4 0
0 4 /4 4 /4 1 /4 )
c) probability limit equation is givwn by
E(1/2) = E[X2/X0]
3
= ∑ E [X2/X0=i] P[X0=i]
i=0

3 3
=∑ ∑ j . p [ X2=j/X0=i] P[X0=i]
i=0 j=0

X0= result of distributing 6 balls into two bones

This, probability of having one ball of a specified when = ½
3! 1 1
 P(X0=i)= ()
( 3−i ) ! (i ) ! 2
3i . e , 3Ci ()
2
3

As these are three chance to have 3 balls of the same colone

3
j
Also : P (X2=j/X0=i)=∑ P X 2=
k=0
( X1 )
=k Px P( X 1=k )( X 0=i)

3
i.e, Pij = ∑ PikPkj
k=0
3. Solution
0.20 0.30 0.50
(
Given that P = 0.10 0.00 0.50
0.55 0.00 0.45 )
a) Hit {1,2,3} be a statie space.
Then
P=1 2 3
1 .20 .30 .50
(
2 .10 .00 .50
3 0.55 .00 .45 )
Indoprs the transition diagram is given bellow ->

b) State closer : - let I be the state if marker chain

{Xn : n0,1,2,…..}. then the class of state is denoted
By C(i) and in define as
C(i) = {j<- S : i <-> j and i <- s} where S= state space
= {set of all states that communicating with i}
Communicating : we call i and j are communicating
(i.e. i->jj) if Pjj>0 for some n
c) Recurrent and trandient states :
a state i is called whenever you can go there is a way of returning to i”.
otherwise it is called transent
*here all the state are recurrent
recurent states are {1,2,3}.

4. Step 1
 Here as per policy I have calculated 3 subpart
Poission process
e−t ( t )n
P(x=n) =
n!
And for exponential distribution
P(T<t) = 1-e-t

Step 2
a) Probability that 5 patients present in the prost howl
e−5 x 1 ( 5 x 1 )5
P(x=5) = = 0.09160
5!
b) Probability that time between arrival of 4th and 5th patients is more than ½ how
P (t>0.5)
= 1- p(t0.5)
= 1- (1-e-0.5x5)
= 0.01832
c) Probability that arrival time of second patient is more than 1 hour, than
expensive and poission both memory lesses not considen what happen in past
So required probability
= P(t>1) = 1-p(t1)
= e-8x1
=0.000335

5. Step 1
The customer comes to the information desk with an average of 20 people per
hour i.e.  = 20/hr
The service rate or average time to answer a question is 3 minutes i.e. µ = 20/hr
(60/30)

Step 2
a) Average number of people waiting in the system = Ls = /(µ-)
Therefore,
 Ls = 20 / (20-20) = 20/0 = 20 people
b) The expections of time spent for a customer in the system = W s = 1 / (µ-)
hours
Therefore, Ws = 1 / (20-20) = 1/10 =1 hours
c) The salary is Rs 50 per hour and the waiting rate is 55 per hour
The expected time a customer spends just waiting (time in the queue) = W q =
 / (µx(µ-))
Wq= 20 / (20 x (20-20)) = 20 / 20 = 1 hours
The average people wait for 0.2083 hours and there are 160 (20 arrivals*8
hours) arrivals per day
Therefore : total waiting time =160*1 = 1606 =160 hours
Total cost for waiting = total waiting time*cost per hour for waiting =
160*55= Rs 8800/day
Salary cost = 88 hours*Rs 50 = Rs 400/day
Total cost = Salary cost + waiting cost =Rs 400+Rs 8000 = Rs 8400/day
As per the guidelines I have solved the first three sub-parts. Please post rest in
another post.