DGMT 783: Design Futures: Trends, Foresight, and Intuition / Mitty Xiang / Professor: Tommy Hardy / Spring 2020

Table
Contents
1. Branding Introduction

2. What is Scenario Planning

3. Brand Description

4. Brand Attributes

5. Brand Myth

6. Brand Challenge Questions

7. Scenario Development
What is the Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a business strategy to prepare your business for the future by
forecasting factors of each 5, 10, 15 years. It frequently utilizes STEEP driving forces
to make flexible long-term plans. Moreover, It’s making assumptions on what the future
is going to be and no how the business environment will change over time in light
of that future. More precisely, Scenario planning is identifying a specific set of
uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of the business.
Brand Introduction

Founded in: 2016

Founder: Weihe Ren

Type: Chinese E-Commerce Streetwear Brand

Category: Womenswear, Menswear, accessories

Target Audience
All Genders

Millennials

Gen Z
Company Values

NOT FOR SALE

MADE IN CHINA

SAME BUT DIFFERENT

NO MAKING WITHOUT BREAKING

Brand Myth
UNISEX,
FREE SIZE,
DESIGN FOR ALL
Brand Attributes

Rational

Quality: A brand that contributed to provide a good

quality of the products, most of their products are
handmade. They never compromise with their every single
product, even though a tee, a hat, or sockets.
Culture: A brand that not only derived from Chinese art
， architecture, folk custom life, and natural scenery, but also
patterns, totems, and words that attract people‘s attention
every day.
Futuristic: A brand that is more about building styles to
touch the future than to memorize the past.
Emotional：
Identified: A brand that expects those clothes are from SMF, customers who are wearing their
clothes while walking on the street, everybody can distinguish.
Flexibility: A brand that does not do product series and releases in different seasons. Timely is
a feature and advantage of street and street brand.
Uncompromised: A brand that not cares about traditional absolute authority, contrast, and
reverse thinking are the focus of their explore.
Brand Challenge
Question
How might SMFK optimize their
distribution channel to appeal to
various customers in an intensely
competitive market?
5 Years Outlook
Steep Driving Forces
For 5 Years
 Social

Cultural Migration
Cultural Migration Influence of Millennials Social Network Influence

SMFK is inspiring Millennials are still the The influencers would be

and designing their main target market of their main platform to
products through SMFK. promote products
various cultures.
 Technological

Cultural Migration

Development of Explore the Electronic Rise of VR

Technological Fabrics Wearables

Develop technological In 3-5 years, explore Customers can explore

fabrics, master electronic wearable virtual showrooms, which
technological devices, electronics, and can offer a virtual
manufacturing network are China's experience to customers.
capabilities, and let the strengths in the future.
two combine.
Cultural Migration
Rising Asian Market Globalization of Economy Economy Recession

SMFK will expand SMFK can sell large
its target market to quantities to foreign
Asian countries, customers, they can
such as Korea, conduct cross-border trade
Japan, and transactions and
Singapore, etc. coordinate the global
distribution of goods.
SMFK will incur
market crisis because
of the economic
recession because of
pandemic and
epidemic and so on.

Economic
 Cultural Migration
Resource and Climate Change Pandemic and Epidemic
Emission Intensive

To reduce the source Climate change is trending, Pandemic and the

waste and carbon it requires the company epidemic causes
dioxide emission, need to decrease carbon market fluctuation.
seeking out footprint emission.
sustainable and
zero-waste fabrics
and machines.

Environmental
Cultural Migration

Improvement of labor law Rise of China as Superpower Regulations of Trade

Company probably Chinese the market is The export and

will increase the cost supposed to be self- import sources cost
while the sufficiency. All would be increased,
manufacturers are of the sources can be from as well as the
producing products China, it could reduce the shipping fee.
as expensive labor production cost.

Political
Potential Black Swan

Natural Disaster would bring a

crisis for SMFK, it’s able
to fluctuate the fashion industry
and market.
Mapped Driving Forces for 5 Years
 High Significance Social
1. Cultural Migration
2. Influence of Millennials
3. Social Network Influence
4 14 12
7 Technological
3 8 4. Development of
6 Technological Fabrics
5. Rise of VR
2 6. Explore the Electronic Wearables
5
11
1
Economic
Certainty Uncertainty 7. Rising Asian Market
8. Globalization of Economy
10 15 9. Economy Recession
13
9 Environmental
For 5 Years

10. Resource and Emission

Intensive
11. Climate Change
12. Pandemic and Epidemic

Political
13. Improvement of labor law
14. Rise of China as Superpower
Low Significance 15. Regulations of Trade
Cause and Effect For 5 years
3

Cause
Social Network Influence: The influencers would be their main
platform to promote products

Effect
Technological:
Wearable and embedded
computing will be tied together
in the Internet of Things,
enabling people and their
surroundings to utilize artificial
intelligence to enhance cloud-
based information storage and
sharing.
Economic:
The social media security market
was US $ 894 million in 2018 and
is expected to reach approximately
US $ 2.919 billion by 2025, with a
CAGR of approximately 18.2%
between 2019 and 2025.
Environmental:
Social networking plays an
important role in the formation
of environmental awareness,
because it exposes users to the
stimulus of various
environmentally sustainable
messages,
 4

Cause

Development of Technological Fabrics: Develop technological fabrics, master

technological manufacturing capabilities, and let the two combine.
Effect

Political: Economic: Environmental:

Asia Pacific dominated the
global technical textile market
for many obvious factors.
The global smart fabrics market
size was valued at USD 878.9
million in 2018 and is anticipated
to expand at a CAGR of 30.4%
from 2019 to 2025.
Eliminate waste-water
pollution and insufficient
degradability
 7

Cause
Rising Asian Market: SMFK will expand its target market to Asian
countries, such as Korea, Japan, and Singapore, etc.

Effect

Political: Economic: Social:

Facing pressure from neighbors In terms of purchasing power More than half of the world’s
Russia and India regarding parity, the region may account for urban population—or about 2.5
regional expansion 42.5% of world GDP by 2025 billon people—will live in
Asian cities.
 12

Cause
Pandemic and Epidemic: Pandemic and the epidemic
causes market fluctuation.

Effect

Political: Economic: Environmental:

It would be the geopolitical
game-changer. A shift in the
center of gravity of the balance
of power towards China and
Asia in general, on the other
Like COVID-19, the
manufacturing would be distress;
commodity markets face volatility;
demand plummeting, concerns
rising.
Over-consumption, value
chains, urbanization, mobility,
relationship with nature
 14

Cause
Rise of China as Superpower: Chinese market is supposed to be self-sufficiency. All
of the sources can be from China, it could reduce the production cost.

Effect

Political: Economic: Technological:

China actively pursues its “Made in China aims to achieve 70% self- China keeps moving from
China 2025” plan while continuing to
sufficiency in high-tech industries, medium technological
invest heavily in FDI in developing
countries. The Belt and Road and by 2049—the hundredth capability to high-tech
Initiative allows China access to anniversary of the People’s capability
markets around the world, thus Republic of China—it seeks a
allowing it to lessen its economic dominant position in global
dependency on the US. markets.
Scenario Plot for 5 Years
Plot Direction: 5 years

Set Up: The global economy is concentrated by the western developed countries, especially in the States. The
government decides to constrict the imported commodities from Asia and motivates local customers to use
domestic goods.

Rising Action: Increasing the imported tariffs, pushing domestics productions, encouraging workers and
employees to produce goods domestically and exporting merchandises internationally.

Turning Point: The US is developing industry technology 4.0 to transmit digital instructions to the physical world. It
touches on every aspect of manufacturing. It can create “digital twins” of physical products and production processes,
validating product designs and virtual simulations.

Falling Action: SMFK is going to import the industry technology from the US, in terms of our company’s concept is
to advance and take advantage of the technological fabrics.

Resolution: Our company is supposed to take the risk for this decision. Also, the cost of the productions is going
to increase.
Visual Rhetoric: 5 Years

A Gated Financial World Set Up

Revitalizing US Manufacturing Rising Action

Industry 4.0 Technologies Turning Point

The Chance Falling Action

Cost increases Resolution

Scenario Logic: 5 Years
 Concentrated Economic Power

Economic
Geopolitical Power Concentrated in
the “West”, and the East dominated A Gated Financial World
by China

Eased Consumption Behavior Intensified Consumption Behavior

Social

Transformation in Consumption
Behaviors Towards Less
New Asia
Exclusive and Wasteful
Ownership Models

Distributed Economic Power

Scenario Narratives 5 Years
Grab the Chance

5 Years
A Gated Financial World

“Good morning everyone! Today we are deciding to

discuss what’s the main factors to impact SMFK‘s
prospective! As we can notice the overall economic situation
in current world, according to SMFK’s main market is in
China, since the huge impact of SMFK’s market extension, is
through the economy and society in the next 5 years because
the brand highly relies on those 2 factors to do expand.

As we can notice that if the global economy is concentrated by

the western developed countries, especially in the States. The
government has determined to constrict the imported
commodities from Asia and motivates local customers to use
domestic goods.

Hence, it’s tough for us to touch the North America’s or

European markets as those markets are exclusive.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Revitalizing US Manufacturing

“Good afternoon guys. There is no doubts that the world is

changing swiftly. In terms of the economy is dominated
by developed countries like the US. However, the decline of
manufacturing in the US occurred unevenly in the past 2
decades. Most other manufacturing industries have
experienced slower growth or real declines in value-added.

Therefore, to open for US manufacturing

to turn things around, US manufacturing scales up effort on
multiple fronts to compete in the future. They keep the
supplier arm’s length affects the bottom line of large
manufacturers. Inefficiencies in OEM supplier interactions
can add up to 5% of development, tooling, and product costs
in the auto industry.

Over time, seeking out ever-lower bids from suppliers

produces diminishing returns. Procurement can be a source of
value rather than simply a place to cut costs, but this
mindset requires larges firms to change incentive structures
among their own purchasing teams. Finally, the integrated
policy as a role in modernizing smaller manufacturers through
financing programs, business accelerators, or tax incentives.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Industry 4.0 Technologies

“Good morning everybody. I have to say the technology would be one

of the heroes of globalization. Specifically the technology-leading like
US is concentrated to develop their technology in order to innovate
their machines. To revitalize US manufacturing, the indispensable
factor is innovated technology.

Technology 4.0 is driven by an explosion in the volume of available

data, developments in analytics and machine learning, new forms of
human-machine interaction, and the ability to transmit digital
instructions to the physical world. It’s can run smart, cost-efficient,
and automated plants that produce large volumes, or conversely, plants
that turn out highly customized products.

They touch on every aspect of manufacturing. Internet of Things

sensors can feed real-time data into the analytics system, which can
adjust machinery remotely to minimize defects, improve yield, and
reduce downtime and waste.”

CEO - Sam Ren

The Chance

“Hi guys. I’m so excited today as I found the chance to innovate our
techniques though the experience of the US. The technology in the
US is always advanced and world-leading. The
best way for SMFK is that importing the technology from the US
into our suppliers and manufactures both. There
are no doubts that SMFK is contributed to as the leader of the techn
ology the garment in Asia.

Although it’s could be difficult to expand its market into

North America, the advantage of this decision is their technological
concept can be the hook for foreign customers, we can be
interested in their products first.

We will collaborate with US manufacturers and factories as well. To

utilize and innovate the technological fabrics into SMFK’s products.
This could be the chance for us to become the leader of the current
Chinese garment market!”

CEO - Sam Ren

Cost Increases

“Indeed, technology is prevalent and admirable in every sort of

categories like SMFK's products. We particularly has been taking
advantage of technology to design our products in which pushing our
products can be a pioneer in the technological garment market.

However, the risks also need to be obtained by SMFK. Inevitably the

cost of production will increase if the brand determines to import the
materials from the US. Besides, the tariffs also regard as a risk
to affect SMF in terms of the recent intense political issue between
China and the US: Trade War.

Nowadays, We just a small-size eCommerce, which has no ability to

undertake those risks. To minimize the risks, the brand decides to split
up a bunch of suppliers into various countries, the main supplier of
countries shall steadily be in Asia, others will be in developed countries
according to the unique part( involved high technical fabrics and
materials).”

CEO - Sam Ren

Implications and
Responses 5 Years
Outlook
 Set Up Rising Action
Implications
The global economy is concentrated by the
western developed countries, especially in the
States. The government decides to constrict
the imported commodities from Asia and
motivates local customers to use domestic
goods. For SMFK, it’s tough to export and do
the business extension into the US. The tariffs
would be increased in terms of the exclusivity
of the US. Especially, the national
relationships between the US and China are
in tension. SMFK is absolutely impacted they
prefers to import the smart fabrics or export
the goods to the US.
Turning Point Falling Action Resolution
Responses
To reduce the risk, SMFK will seek out the
substitutive countries which are mainly developing
and researching the technology as well. In fact,
China is one of the strongest countries which are
developing and researching technology in the next
decades since the materials and fabrics of the
company are able to do the self-efficiency. Besides,
China’s adjacent countries such as Japan, Korea,
and Singapore also can be the choices, and can
collaborate with those the smart fabrics companies
to R&D the technology. It’s the best way to split
the manufacturers and factories up into the various
countries so as to decrease the risk and crisis.
Implications and Responses 5 Years Outlook
Black Swan Driving Forces

5 Years
 5 Years
Natural Disaster would bring a crisis for SMFK, it’s able to fluctuate the fashion industry and
Setup market.

Rising Action The COVID-19 crisis is compounding the tensions that disrupted trade flows

The Chinese Textile and Apparel chamber of commerce, reports a positive trend in the resumption of operations
Turning Point in textile and apparel sectors. The capacity of production moved towards 80 percent of the normal situation.
Logistics and port facilities are recovering.

SMFK as an Ecommerce brand so far, the customers purchase power would decrease in terms of the
Falling Action Covid-19. It has seen an even greater impact from the pandemic and face a slower return to normalcy

Specifically, digital-native younger generations, will lead China to become the first market
Resolution for SMFK by 2025,
 Falling Action

Turning Point

Reborn

Hell or Heaven
It is Coming
Rising Action

We are the Next

Setup

The Destruction

Resolution
Resolution
“Good Morning everyone. I think there are no
doubts that environmental issues such as natural
disasters could impact on the fashion industry, of
course, it includes our company.
Hence, today’s main topic is how can we exist
stably even though we are still in a tough situation
because of the environmental issue.
By lending the experience before, we can
notice that environmental issue not only impacts on
society but also the economy, especially like global
trade. SMFK is mainly exporting the outsource of
materials and fabrics. It highly affects our business
in producing.”

CEO - Sam Ren

“The Destruction”
 “It Is Coming”

“Hi guys. So sorrowfully to remind you guys we are

in the tough situation now, and it would continue to
affect us in the next few years. As people read and
browsed the news or press releases, COVID-19 is
spreading across the whole world, and there are
plenty of countries have been in nation lockdown.
The conspicuous consequence of this virus is the
recession of the global economy. Globalization is
slowing down currently since the global trade is
uncertain as well. The COVID-19 crisis is
compounding the tensions that disrupted trade
flows. It’s a chance to mention us that the Covid-19
and its impact on various industry verticals and
wherever required we will be considering Covid-19
footprints for a better analysis of markets
and industries.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 “Reborn”

“Good afternoon everybody. There is

excellent news which a positive trend in
the resumption of operations in the textile
and apparel sectors. The capacity of
production moved towards 80 percent of
the normal situation. Logistics and port
facilities are recovering. It’s a good chance
to know Covid-19 is making the luxury
industry even more dependent on Chinese
shoppers. Luxury companies’ sales
plummet during COVID-19 when Covid-
19 shut down much of China and its
outbound travel.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 “Hell or Heaven”

“Hi everyone, as we can see that how did COVID-

19 still impact the overall industry, such as e-
commerce companies. SMFK is impacted because
of outsourcing from other countries. A bunch of
manufacturers and factories are collapsed and
declared bankruptcy. Therefore, we have to seek
out other manufacturers and factories even though
we have already contracted with our partners. The
deficit we should be able to undertake as well.
Nevertheless, it’s not easy for us in order to our
specific and special requirements of fabrics and
materials. According to the recession of economy,
customers’ purchase power decreased as well, it’
vital for us to tempt the new customers again. So
now we have to assemble to combat this condition!”

CEO - Sam Ren

 “We Are the Next”

“It’s good for us that the Chinese economy should

be the least damaged from the crisis. The e-
commerce gains ground though the COVID-
19. Customer’s buying behavior has changed
vastly in terms of this virus. People are turning
towards buying via digital channels, more than 10-
34%. Besides, buying at home would increase
to 49% in 2025 for Chinese customers, and ongoing
restrictions on international travel will also prompt
Chinese consumers to make more of their purchases
domestically. As an e-commerce-based
company, it’s significant for us to grab this chance
to expand and extend our company inside and
outside.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Black Swan Implications
and Responses—5 Years
 Environmental Scenario 5 Years

Implications

In terms of Pandemic of COVID-19, SMFK is seeing an oversupply of apparel which has led them to cancel orders and delay new
shipments out of fear that SMFK will be left with a large amount of stock they cannot sell. This has left SMFK struggling to sell or
store the unwanted stock. Seasonality could also have a negative effect on SMFK even if the demand for clothing returns to normal
levels. It is likely that the brand and manufacturers alike will end up with a large amount of unsold spring and winter clothing
that they may not see demand for until next year.

Response

SMFK is devoted to being a tech-based fashion company. Hence, to eliminate this crisis and risk, the brand considers investing
in things like hyper-automation to offload some of the more manual, time-intensive tasks – allowing employees to focus on work
that is more purposeful and valuable to them. Utilizing the automated digital platform to discern and collect all of the data and
analyze them to determine the inventory for SMFK. it needs a qualifier on what the “constraints” are; the word “fulfillment”.
10 Years Outlook
Steep Driving Forces For
10 Years
 Gen Z would be our next
Increasing of Gen Z significant target market, and
they would occupy the market
Social

in the next decade.

The purchase power

would increase because
Urban Population Growth of the high demands in
order to population
growth.

Social media still master

Social Media Unrest the e-commerce market,
it deeply impacts SMFK
 This technology would be perfect,
and nanotechnology offers a new Nanotechnology Perfection
approach for the processing of

Technological
fabric materials.

Using Robots as the main

equipment to produce
plants, they vastly increase
Equipment in Their Plants Like Robots the number of fabrics
and fibers. SMFK can have
various choices to select their
materials.

SMFK will create their own

tribe on the app, which
Application Integration
includes communication,
purchase, VR, AR, and 3D
function
 Increasing Income Disparity

In next 10 years, income

inequality continues to

Economic
increase. It means probably
customers’ purchase power Currency Fluctuation
would decrease.

A company responds in a
variety of ways – from adjusting
pricing, sourcing, and retail
locations to hedging currencies
in the FX markets.
Turbulence in China

It would impact the Chinese

market and economy. It
does have a positive and
negative influence.
 Carbon Footprint Requirements

Environmental
A company are supposed to do
zero carbon dioxide emission
while they produce goods.

Global Climate Change

It will influence Renewable Energy Source

the source and
operation of the
All the clothes and
fashion industry
accessories can be made
with renewable electricity.
It means that using 100%
renewable energy to power
all their global operations.
 Global Political Instability

More and more people purse

various freedom of speech, life-
free, no control by
government.

Turbulence in European
Political
The economy and
politics fluctuate.

Trade Tensions
Trade taxes,
requirements, laws
would be rigorous.
Potential Black Swan
Major a terrorist attack would impact SMFK, for
example such as severe social issues.
Mapped Driving
Forces for 10 Years
Social High Significance
1. Increasing of Gen Z
2. Urban Population Growth
3. Social Media Unrest 3
6
10
Technological
4. Nanotechnology Perfection 4 12 8
5. Equipment in Their Plants Like Robots 2
Po
6. Application Integration

1 5
7 15
Economic
7. Increasing Income Disparity Certainty Uncertainty
8. Turbulence in China
9. Currency Fluctuation 11
9
Environmental 13

For 10 Years
10. Global Climate Change
11. Carbon Footprint Requirements
12. Renewable Energy Source
14

Political
13. Global Political Instability
14. Turbulence in European
15. Trade Tensions Low Significance
Cause And Effect For 10 Years
 Effect
Technological
All the major platforms are wrestling with
how to combat the fake and hateful posts that
are polluting their feeds.

Cause Social
we’ll see search’s grip slip further on product
research and social media’s influence grow,
especially among mobile-first consumers and
Social Media Unrest”: emerging markets.
Social media still master
the e-commerce market,
it deeply impacts
SMFK

Environmental
Sustainability can be everywhere for everyone.
Customers are contributing to do sustainable and
environmental projects, and projects to fight
against climate change.

3
 Effect
Technological
Application platforms will create their own
tribe on the app, which includes
communication, purchase, AI, VR, AR, and
3D function

Cause
Economic
Total economic impact of AI in the period to
2030. AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion1 to
Application Integration: the global economy
Artificial Intelligence can be
used in Application
Platform)

Environmental
Benefits from AI could be derived by the
possibility of analyzing large-scale interconnected
databases to develop joint actions aimed at
preserving the environment.

6
 Effect
Social
China’s urbanization ratio could increase
from 60% currently to 75% by 2030,
translating into 220 million new urban
dwellers.

Cause
Economic
The projections suggest China's gross domestic
product will stand at $26 trillion in 2030, up
Turbulence in China: from $14.1 trillion today.
It will impact the Chinese
market and economy. It does
have a positive and negative
influence.

Environmental
The importance of China taking steps to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions as well as other
pollutants – the country has committed to peak its
carbon emissions by 2030.

8
 Effect
Social
As a local government, it will set a local
emissions goals. The adoption of the resolution not
only provided an opportunity, but it was also
necessary to incorporate emissions impacts into all
township decisions.

Cause
Economic
Climate Change will cause losses in
productivity reaching 2.2% of all the working
Global Climate Change hours, every year globally.
It will influence the source and
operation of the fashion
industry

Environmental
The importance of China taking steps to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions as well as other
pollutants – the country has committed to peak its
carbon emissions by 2030.

10
 Effect
Political
Trade taxes, requirements, laws would be rigorous.
EU trade policy and sustainable development. The EU strives to
ensure trade policy helps promote sustainable development
through:
EU trade agreements;
special incentives for developing countries, and;
trade and development policy.
Cause

Economic
Expecting US exports to China to rise to more
Trade Tensions: than $520 billion
Trade taxes, requirements,
laws would be rigorous.

Technological
Automation and additive manufacturing change
production processes and the relative importance
of inputs, and may reduce goods trade

15
Scenario Plot for 10 Years
Plot Direction: 10 years

Set Up: Global politics would be instability in order to AI machine controls.

Rising Action: The western and the eastern countries are researching and developing the weapons which are intelligent
and automated, the military robot armies would replace the traditional way through human to AI robots. AI is supposed to
analyze and predict the decisions.

Turning Point: The US Army wants to turn tanks into AI-powered killing machines

Falling Action: SMFK could take advantage of this technology into production and service so as to improve the
efficiency and capability for producing.

Resolution: National politics conflicts would be amplified. National trade is supposed to tough and complicated.
 Set Up Rising Action Turning Point Falling Action Resolution

Military Robots With The Western and The Killer Robots Is Utilizing AI to National politics
Autonomous Lethal Eastern Countries Developed By Improve the conflicts intense
Firing Power participated in The US Business

Visual Rhetoric: 10 Years

Scenario Logic: 10 Years
 Global Political Instability

Political
AI Replaces Human’s Job, Robots Are Military Robots With Autonomous
Able To Replace Human Creativity Lethal Firing Power
Human-Machine
Collaboration Control AI Control
Technological

Digital Politics SuperMinds

Global Political Stability

Scenario Narratives 10 Years
10 Years

Stay Ambitious
Politics Unrest

“Good morning everyone. I believed that politics and technology will be

the significant factors to impact SMFK in the next 10 years. Particularly,
it’s inevitable that technology will take over humans through human-
control to AI control not only manufacturing but also political aspects
like military robots.

The emergency of AI control hugely brings instability for politics within

the countries. The killer robot machines cause countries
conflicts aggressively, the employees would be replaced by an AI robots
in the workplace. The countries are contributed to develop and promote
their own domestic products and materials, and then stimulate
consumption in the countries.

It’s tough for SMFK to enter the markets worldwide.”

CEO - Sam Ren

The conflicts

"In terms of the emergency of the AI robots, it vastly impacts the

conflicts of the countries specifically western and eastern counters such
as the US and China.

The western and the eastern countries are researching and developing
the weapons which are intelligent and automated, the military robot
armies would replace the traditional way through human to AI robots.

AI can be utilized in every aspect of the world since perhaps

productivity can be satisfied by every country, they would not need to
import or export materials through various countries due to a decrease
in the cost.

In fact, approximately every third robot in the industry is now installed

in China, with the world's second-largest economy accounting for
around one-in-five of the global stock of robots. More than 1.5 million
jobs would have been lost to robots in the United States.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Killer Robots

“To retain the first powerful country all over the world, and compete
with China, the US takes the lead in developing and advancing
the killer robots. Sources familiar with the test described it as a major
milestone in the development of a new wave of artificially intelligent
weapons systems soon to make their way to the battlefield.

A handful of such systems have been deployed for decades, though only
in limited, defensive roles, such as shooting down missiles hurtling
toward ships. But with the development of AI-infused systems, the
military is now on the verge of fielding machines capable of going on the
offensive, picking out targets, and taking lethal action without direct
human input.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Turn Around

“How could we utilize this condition to promote our company?

The AI robots definitely bring political instability between the
countries. Nevertheless, we has taken advantage of this
technology into their business.

With the rise of China, it is still developing AI technology in the

next 10 years to compete with the US. Hence, SMFK would like
to be the first e-commerce company to invest 5 million dollars
into the AI technology to advance its products without relying on
US technology.

The balance would be sought out between countries in order to

globalization. We can use this balance to expand its market into
various countries nationally.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Extensions

“As the AI revolution and accompanying technologies are

transforming geopolitical competition, NATO should address internal
and external disparities in AI capabilities. The AI revolution and
accompanying technologies are also
transforming SMFK’s competition.

Because the development of AI, machine learning, and autonomous

systems relies on factors such as data, workforces, computing power,
and semiconductors, disparities in how well different brands harness
these technologies may widen in the future.

This matters because our mastery of AI will determine their future

strategic effectiveness in competitive matters, as well as their
performance, and ability to deter adversaries.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Implications and Responses 10 Years Outlook
Set Up Rising Action Turning Point
Implications
Politics and technology will become important factors
affecting SMFK in the next 10 years. In particular, it is
inevitable that technology will replace humans through
artificial control, thereby controlling not only
manufacturing but also political aspects of military
aspects, such as military robots. The state of emergency
controlled by artificial intelligence has greatly brought
turmoil to politics within countries. Killer robot machines
radically lead to national conflict, and AI robots in the
workplace will replace employees. These countries have
contributed to the development and promotion of their
domestic products and materials, thereby stimulating
consumption in these countries. It is difficult for SMFK
to enter the global market.
Falling Action Resolution
Responses
SMFK hopes to be the first e-commerce company to
invest US millions of dollars in AI technology without
relying on US technology to upgrade its products. For
globalization, a balance will be sought between countries.
We can use this balance to expand its market to various
countries nationwide. The artificial intelligence revolution
and accompanying technology are also changing the
competition of SMFK. This is important because our level
of mastery of AI will determine its future strategic
effectiveness, performance, and ability to block opponents
in competitive matters
Implications and Responses 10 Years Outlook
Black Swan Driving Forces
10 Years
10 Years

Setup
Global Cyber Terrorism Incidents on the Rise

As automation grows, so does the opportunity to manipulate an industrial Rising Action

control system through a cyber-attack.

The upsurge of highly skilled hackers, often nation-state supported, is coinciding with the
Turning Point
development of more sophisticated tools that are likely seeping into the broader environment
through a thriving black market.

Companies are now deeply dependent on their systems and data, and interference with those assets
Falling Action
can materially affect market capitalization and endanger executive leadership, reputations, sales and
profits. Failures in cybersecurity have the potential to destabilize an enterprise overnight.

To avoid the cyber terrorism from SMFK’s competitors, the company is supposed to recruit Resolution
cybersecurity to maintain the computing system.
 Falling Action

Turning Point

Crisis is inevitable

A Way to Survive
Good or Bad
Rising Action

I’m the winner

Setup
Cyber Day

Resolution
“Cyber Day”

“Good Morning everyone, today our topic is

about cyber terrorism incidents. Based on our
high requirements of technology, the crisis we
need to notice that recently, we have seen a
series of smaller, less complex but equally
shocking terrorist acts involving casualties and
fear-causing incidents everywhere. As new
technologies and opportunities present
themselves to terrorist organizations, the types
of threats will continue to change – cyber
terrorism is an example of an emerging field in
the danger world.
Traditionally, most cyber-attacks have been
carried out by criminal organizations, with the
majority of incidents failing to register on an
enterprise risk scale of businesses that faced
significant setbacks."

CEO - Sam Ren

“Good or Bad”

“However, this is also our opportunity to

switch this crisis as an advantage to
improve the company. Actually,
digitalization isn’t making the world safer
or more insecure.” Whether “private” will
continue to exist at all in the future is a
generation question. Therefore, the
protections that came with the isolation
have weakened with the introduction of
automated controls managed through
interconnected network systems. As
automation grows, so does the opportunity
to manipulate an industrial control system
through a cyber-attack.“

CEO - Sam Ren

“Crisis is Inevitable”

“Nevertheless, although the opportunity we

can seize, we are prepared to undertake the
responsibility as well. Such attacks are rarely
public, they occur more frequently. The
upsurge of highly skilled hackers, often
nation-state supported, is coinciding with the
development of more sophisticated tools that
are likely seeping into the broader
environment through a thriving black
market.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 “A Way to Survive”

“Companies now rely heavily on

their systems and data. Interference
with these assets can seriously
affect market value and jeopardize
executive leadership, reputation,
sales, and profits. Network security
failures can disrupt corporate
stability overnight. Many cyber
policies now contain provisions for
business interruption and
contingent business interruption,
including those involving disruption
of an organization’s supply chain
from a data breach.”

CEO - Sam Ren

“I’m the winner”

“Good morning. To avoid the cyber terrorism from

SMFK’s competitors, the company is supposed to recruit
cybersecurity to maintain the computing system.
Cybersecurity is everyone's responsibility, not just the
members of a team or a committee or a department.
Everyone in your organization is impacted by
cybersecurity so everyone should also be part of the
solution, not part of the problem.
Keeping up with the implementation, monitoring, tracking
and updating required for effective cybersecurity
operations to respond to evolving cybercrime methods can
be a difficult task for insiders. What makes things more
difficult is to attract and retain senior network security
engineers to maintain SMFK‘s network security system.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Black Swan Implications and Responses—10 Years
 Technological Scenario 10 Years

Implications

The upsurge of highly skilled hackers, often nation-state supported, is coinciding with the development of more
sophisticated tools that are likely seeping into the broader environment through a thriving black market. SMFK
would be monitored and stolen data and technological skills by their competitors probably. It vastly breaks the
overall business model and organization in terms of the critical information is in an exposure.

Response

To avoid cyber terrorism from SMFK’s competitors, the company is supposed to recruit cybersecurity to maintain the
computing system. Cybersecurity is everyone's responsibility, not just the members of a team or a committee or a
department. Everyone in SMFK’s organization is impacted by cybersecurity so everyone should also be part of the solution,
not part of the problem. Keeping up with the implementation, monitoring, tracking and updating required for effective
cybersecurity operations to respond to evolving cybercrime methods can be a difficult task for insiders.
\

15 Years Outlook
STEEP Driving Forces for 15 Years
World Population Growth
World population
forecasted to reach
8,838,907,000

Millennials are enjoying an

inheritance boom

Social
This leads to increased
inequality among the
millennial generation (not all
parents have a lot of money or
property)

Online manipulation
and immersive media
have begun to
eliminate the
authenticity and the
trust we share.
 Technological
Fattest Transportation Would Be Created Web/internet: 'Quantum computing is the future'

New train technology travels 3x

The web, as a single space
faster than airplanes
largely made up of webpages
accessed on computers, will be
long gone. We will be sharing
videos, simulations, experiences,
and environments, on a
multiplicity of devices to which
we'll pay as much attention as a
light switch.
Sensor-Based Applications
We may wear band-aid fitness sensors on our skin, use
wireless power to charge our devices, let algorithms
optimize and protect our houses, and be equipped with
virtual assistants (to help us manage large amounts of
data and make it meaningful.
 Changes in Oil Prices
Globalization of Economy Consumer-led economy in China.
As an increasing proportion of
Global economic growth China will try to shift from a
the world shifts to electric cars
gravity will shift from long-term export and
and car-sharing and renewable
America and Europe to Asia investment focus to a
electricity production, world oil
prices can sometimes plummet. consumer-led economy.

Economic

Source Scarcity
Particularly as resources become
scarcer and it becomes
increasingly important to
recognize water and carbon
footprints.
Environmental
Extreme Weather
The southwestern United States will
begin to experience severe droughts
which severely weakened the
agricultural capacity of the region and
forced states to formulate strict water
conservation policies.
Global Hazards
A series of global hazards
constitute an imminent long-term
threat, and even if cooperation
becomes more and more difficult,
collective action is required to
respond.
 Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take
greater risks against the US'
The world will be more
complicated, divided between a
broad American sphere of
influence in Europe, the Middle
East and South Asia, and a
Chinese sphere in East Asia and
Africa.

The Nature of Conflict is Changing

Destructive societies will become more
and more common. Long-range

Political precision weapons, networks, and

robotic systems target distant
infrastructure, and more easily
available technologies can manufacture
weapons of mass destruction.

The final collapse of the European Union

Europe is now experiencing a wave
of major political unrest, the already
fragile alliance having split along
north-south lines.
 Technology Revolutionary and Affecting the
Potential Black Swan Ecosystem would affect SMFK in the next 15
years.
Mapped
Driving Forces
for 15 Years
 Social
High Significance
1. World Population Growth
9 2. Millennials are enjoying an
1 inheritance boom
3. Online manipulation and immersive
11 media

10 8
4 5 Technological
4. Quantum computing is the future
3 5. Sensor-Based Applications
6. Fattest Transportation Would Be
6 Created
14
Economic
Certainty Uncertainty
7. Changes in Oil Prices
8. Globalization of Economy Tension
12 9. Consumer-led economy in China.

2
Environmental
7
10. Source Scarcity
15 11. Extreme Weather
13 12. Global Hazards

Political
13. The Nature of Conflict is Changing
14. Geopolitics: 'Rivals will take greater
risks against the US'
Low Significance
For 15 Years
Cause And Effect For 15 Years
 1

Cause
World Population Growth:
World population forecasted to
reach 8,838,907,000

Effect

Political: Economic: Environmental:

Rapid population
growth strains political instituti
ons and increases pressure on
services
All of 2035’s major players will be
found in Asia: four of the fastest-
growing cities will be in mainland
China, another four in India, and
the last two in Southeast Asia..
Rapid population growth has
put pressure on political
institutions and increased
service pressure
 Cause
4
Quantum computing is the future: We will be
sharing videos, simulations, experiences, and
environments, on a multiplicity of devices to
which we'll pay as much attention as a light
switch.

Effect

Technology: Economic: Environmental:

Expecting chip-level
diversification and more use of
multiple small chips in 2.5D and
3D packages.
Quantum supports portfolio
analysis, asset valuation and high-
frequency trading.
quantum simulation could be
hugely valuable is in meeting the
SDGs – not only in health, energy,
industry, innovation and
infrastructure but also in climate
action.
 Cause

Globalization of Economy:
Global economic growth gravity will shift 8
from America and Europe to Asia

Effect

Political: Social: Environmental:

The threat and challenge of
economic globalization to
China's political stability has
increased
The global population will increase
from 7.35 billion in 2015 to 8.89
billion in 2035 and 9.77 billion in
2050.
At the same time, it will change the
pattern of global energy supply and
industrial division of labor. Climate
change and environmental pollution will
increasingly become constraints to
global economic growth.
 Cause

Extreme Weather: The southwestern United States will begin to

experience severe droughts which severely weakened the
agricultural capacity of the region and forced states to formulate
strict water conservation policies.

Effect

Political:
It would be the geopolitical
game-changer. A shift in the
center of gravity of the balance
of power towards China and
Asia in general, on the other
Economic:
Extreme Weather has exacerbated
the imbalance in economic
development among countries.
11
Social:
Impact of extreme weather on
world crop production and
harvest. Due to various natural
disasters, it will cause a decline
in crop yields
 Cause

Geopolitics: “Rivals Will Take Greater Risks Against

the US”: The world will be more complicated, divided
between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe,
the Middle East and South Asia, and a Chinese sphere in
East Asia and Africa.

Effect

Political: Economic: Technological:

A large number of well-educated The Asia-Pacific region in
populations in Poland, Turkey, particular will emerge as the focal
Brazil and neighboring countries point of the global economy. In
will return to themselves, and terms of size, China, India, the
Russia will continue to revive. United States, Indonesia and
Brazil are expected to be the top
five economies by the mid-century.
The key sectors where most
growth is expected are big
data, biotechnology,
nanotechnology and robotics.
14
Scenario Plot for 15 Years
Plot Direction: 15 years

Set Up: State-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism.

Rising Action: The world now faces momentous challenges with climate change, the return of
state-on-state conflict and an end to social cohesion with increasing levels of inequality.

Turning Point: A world headed toward multipolarity with limited multilateralism. A multipolarity that
devolved into another Cold War bipolarity - China, Russia, and their praters pitted against the US, Europe,
Japan, and other allies.

Falling Action: Meanwhile, SMFK could expand the market into Chinese partners
which pitted against the rival countries.

Resolution: Conflict among great powers looms

 Set Up Rising Action Turning Point Falling Action Resolution

State-on-state conflict Momentous Challenges Multipolarity With Expand the National Conflict Among Great
Limited Multilateralism Market Powers Looms

Visual Rhetoric: 15 Years

Scenario Logic: 15 Years
 Population Growth Extremely

Social
Super Purchase Power Conflict Among Great Powers Looms

Free Market Forces Governance Control

Economic
Customers Select the Products Which Show Dominated Domestic Products
Their Taste and Identity

Population Decline
Scenario Narratives 15 Years
 15 years

Peace and Love

 State-on-State

“Because of the development of the economy and society, our company is impacted in the next 15 years. The world now
faces momentous challenges with climate change, the return of state-on-state conflict, and an end to social cohesion with
increasing levels of inequality. Without a political, intellectual, and, some say, spiritual renaissance that addresses and
deals with the big existential tests facing humanity we will not be able to move together into the future.

As the cost of robots came down and automation and 3D printing spread, still-struggling emerging markets could no
longer rely on lower labor costs, SMFK could be able to decrease the cost through the technology, using the budget
to do promotion or extensions. This is a far cry from the earlier notion that globalization and technological change would
“lift all boats.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 Momentous Challenges

“Only a few years later, many experts are talking about China leading in certain areas—such as AI-based
facial recognition technologies—and having an advantage because of its big stores of data, necessary to
perfecting AI algorithms. SMFK definitely has the advantage to compete with other technology-based fashion
brands. It has to say our company will win.
Besides, migration is creating a new dynamic for us. The assumption has often been that more development in
the places that migrants are coming from will lessen their desire to emigrate. Apparently, though, it is the
other way around. Economic development leads to create more consumption for SMFK’s target market.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 Multipolarity With Limited Multilateralism

“We is impacted by the multipolarity between the countries. A world headed toward multipolarity with limited
multilateralism. A multipolarity that devolved into another Cold War bipolarity - China, Russia, and their praters
pitted against the US, Europe, Japan, and other allies.

In order to our plans on making certain main developing countries as their second market to sell products, those
countries would be supposed to increase their requirements or tariffs if we want to export those countries. This
should be the crisis for SMFK to do expand.”

CEO - Sam Ren

 It’s Time

“Because of the increase of globalization, migration, and economic integration in the next decades, It’s time to expand the
SMFK’s market nationally. SMFK has determined to extend the market into Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and
Singapore. They obtained a huge success for this smart fabrics’ garments.

Consumers in Asian countries, they are super interested in this new technological garments, particularly in Japan. Japan is one
of the developing and high-technology countries in Asia, and they have a high acceptance of new things. We are not only to
expand its market in Japan but also is supposed to import and partner with manufacturers and factories so as to use their smart
fabrics to integrate their products as well.”
CEO - Sam Ren
 Peace and Love In The War

“Hey guys! Exciting day! The increase of globalization, migration, and economic integration in
bringing conflict among great powers looms. How can we survive and still grow in this tough situation?
To be stable to in the national market, SMFK is working with technology-based companies to advance their smart
garments.
On the other hand, the most essential matter is that they devoted SMFK to become one of the representatives of
the Luxury brand in the world. From the beginning to the end, they still believe that Made in China is a matter of
great pride. Pride is more important than money and will always be with them.”

CEO - Sam Ren

Implications and Responses 15 Years Outlook
Set Up Rising Action
Implications
Because of the increase of globalization, migration,
high-tech innovation, and economic integration in
the next decades, SMFK’s business model no longer
attracts customers worldwide. There are abundant
competitors will be emerging, since how SMFK can
alter their business mode or products to diverse
aspects in terms of compete with their competitors?
Turning Point Falling Action Resolution
Responses
Because SMFK as a tech-based fashion company since the
data is the most significant factor for the brand, the
company is required to use accurate data to analyze and
forecast the forward trends. To ensure that the company is
still human control, SMFK is determining to implement
AI machines as subsidiary equipment to assist workers to
collect and analyze data, whereas people are continued to
main decision-makers. Thereby maximizing the overall
value of their products can following future trends, and
further satisfying the customers’ demand, whether how is
fast changing of the fashion industry.
Black Swan Driving Forces
 Black Swan
Driving Forces
15 Years
 Technological breakthroughs in hardware, software and wetware that will change
Setup
everything in an instant, sending research on a totally new trajectory.

Rising Action
The Industrial Revolution changed manufacturing and the A.I. Revolution will
change the intellectual landscape

Two main emerging technologies: contactless shopping and artificial intelligence

Turning Point
are shaping fashion industry.

Falling Action Technology Revolution and the Ecosystem would affect SMFK

To stay competition, SMFK accepts fabric technology and robot machinery, to 3D

Resolution online shopping experience and cashless economies

15 Years
 Falling Action

Turning Point
Emerging

Star Surrounds the Moon

Evolution in Revolution
Rising Action

Pioneer Forever

New Era
Setup

Resolution
 ”New Era”

“Good morning everybody. In the next 20 years,

we are likely to see technological breakthroughs
in hardware, software, and wet software. These
technological breakthroughs will immediately
change everything and start research on a new
track.
What is worrying is that artificial intelligence
will reflect the logic of groups that are already in
a dominant position (white, highly educated,
middle- and upper-class from developed
countries), while excluding groups that are
already disadvantaged. As technology develops
with the support of objectivity, it is easy to
forget how valuable those technologies are. "
CEO - Sam Ren
“Evolution in Revolution”

“Good afternoon, concerning the future of A.I. on

jobs and economies. A.I. will have a radical impact
in the workplace by the year 2035.
The advancement of AI-a computer system that
can self-learn and perform tasks that were once
human-is achieved to some extent by the
improvement of processing power and the
innovation of algorithm development.
We need to approach AI not just as artificial
intelligence , but augmented intelligence, implying
that AI can help augment the human thinking
process by creatively stripping away the more
mundane tasks that can often be automated,
elevating our designers, merchants, marketeers
etc.”.
CEO - Sam Ren
“Emerging”

”Good morning everyone, because of the

advancement of technology in fashion industry,
there are two main emerging technologies:
contactless shopping and artificial intelligence
are shaping fashion industry in the next
decade. Contactless shopping will eliminate
shop fronts, sales staff, checkouts and cash,
thereby reducing business costs, while artificial
intelligence will allow for more efficiency and
agility. Artificial intelligence will also enable
businesses to predict production and trend
forecasts more accurately and provide an overall
better retail experience, like 3D dressing
rooms.”

CEO - Sam Ren

“Star Surrounds the Moon”

“Good morning everybody. The good news is that there

are some promising developments that could transform the
fashion industry and how we purchase and wear clothing.
New technologies and processes are being developed to
design, produce, use and recover products and materials in
radical new ways – a circular system, in which anything
material is considered part of a loop, where recovery or
future use is anticipated and enabled. This includes the
creation of new environmental, social and economic
models.
As acclaimed luxury designer Stella McCartney explains:
‘in future fashion will be restorative and regenerative by
design and the clothes we love will never end up as waste.”

CEO - Sam Ren

“Pioneer Forever”

“To stay competitive, we need to adapt to new

technologies. But with so much change to consumer
behavior in SMFK [due to new technologies], customer
education [has become] one of our biggest challenges.
There are still so many people who don’t know how to buy
online, especially the older generation.
We need to to discuss many topics ranging from fabric
technology and robotic machinery to 3D online shopping
experience and cashless economy. The audience included
representatives from the fashion, education, retail and
media industries.
Therefore, for the SMFK, it is important to continue to
create new networks to help cope with the challenges of
daily changes, thereby pushing the industry into the
future. "

CEO - Sam Ren

Implications
and
Responses
15 Years
 Technological Scenario 15 Years

Implications

In the next decade, technological globalization would be maximized, which means SMFK would lose their
competitive strategy as there are a bunch of competitors are concentrated on the tech-based business model. Hence,
perhaps there are no more particular or unique fabrics or materials for competing in the global fashion market. This
situation would be a risk for SMFK if they lessen the innovations of technology and stand out from their
competitors.

Response

To seek out the opportunity of sustainable development of SMFK, the company would partner with other high-tech
business to innovate and advance the smart fabrics and materials. For example, AiQ Smart Clothing, Inc. is a fashion
apparel company which sells the perfectly seamless integration of technology and apparel. For their business values,
it matches our values as well. In terms of to bring the best service for SMFK’s customers, they are determining to
jointly invest and develop where electronics merge with textiles to create fashionable, functional, comfortable
solutions to meet your everyday needs
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