IE5004, Homework 3

Solution to 3.49.
Let C = {the man has cancer} and A = {the PSA level is elevated}. Then, P[A|C c ] = 0.135,
P[A|C] = 0.268.

(a) If P[C] = 0.7, then by Bayes’ formula,

P[A|C]P[C] 0.268 × 0.7
P[C|A] = c c
= = 0.822.
P[A|C]P[C] + P[A|C ]P[C ] 0.268 × 0.7 + 0.135 × 0.3
If P[C] = 0.3, P[C|A] = 0.460.
(b) If P[C] = 0.7, then,
P[Ac |C]P[C] (1 − P[A|C])P[C]
P[C|Ac ] = c c c c
=
P[A |C]P[C] + P[A |C ]P[C ] (1 − P[A|C])P[C] + (1 − P[A|C c ])P[C c ]
(1 − 0.268) × 0.7
= = 0.664.
(1 − 0.268) × 0.7 + (1 − 0.135) × 0.3
If P[C] = 0.3, P[C|Ac ] = 0.266.

Solution to 3.52.
Let A = {she is accepted} with P[A] = 0.6. Let M , T , W , T h, and F be the events that
the mail arrives on Monday through Friday. Let R = {the mail does not arrive on Monday
through Friday}. By the table, P[R|A] = 1 − 0.15 − 0.2 − 0.25 − 0.15 − 0.1 = 0.15 and P[R|Ac ] =
1 − 0.05 − 0.1 − 0.1 − 0.15 − 0.2 = 0.4.

(a) By the law of total probability, P[M ] = P[M ∩ A] + P[M ∩ Ac ] = P[M |A]P[A] + P[M |Ac ]P[Ac ] =
0.15 × 0.6 + 0.05 × 0.4 = 0.11.
(b) By part (a), P[M c ] = 0.89. Using the law of total probability,

P[T ] = P[T |A]P[A] + P[T |Ac ]P[Ac ] = 0.2 × 0.6 + 0.1 × 0.4 = 0.16.

Because T ⊂ M c , we have
P[T ∩ M c ] P[T ] 0.16 16
P[T |M c ] = c
= c
= = .
P[M ] P[M ] 0.89 89

(c) We have

P[A ∩ (T h ∪ F ∪ R)] = P[A ∩ T h] + P[A ∩ F ] + P[A ∩ R]

= P[T h|A]P[A] + P[F |A]P[A] + P[R|A]P[A]
= 0.15 × 0.6 + 0.1 × 0.6 + 0.15 × 0.6 = 0.24.

The probabilities that the mail arrives on Thursday, Friday, and that it does not arrive on
Monday through Friday are given by

P[T h] = P[T h|A]P[A] + P[T h|Ac ]P[Ac ] = 0.15 × 0.6 + 0.15 × 0.4 = 0.15,
P[F ] = P[F |A]P[A] + P[F |Ac ]P[Ac ] = 0.1 × 0.6 + 0.2 × 0.4 = 0.14,
P[R] = P[R|A]P[A] + P[R|Ac ]P[Ac ] = 0.15 × 0.6 + 0.4 × 0.4 = 0.25,

1
 respectively. Hence,

P[A ∩ (T h ∪ F ∪ R)] 0.24 4

P[A|T h ∪ F ∪ R] = = = .
P[T h ∪ F ∪ R] 0.15 + 0.14 + 0.25 9

(d) By part (c), we know that P[T h] = 0.15, so

P[T h|A]P[A] 0.15 × 0.6

P[A|T h] = = = 0.6.
P[T h] 0.15

(e) By part (c), we know that P[R] = 0.25, so

P[R|A]P[A] 0.15 × 0.6

P[A|R] = = = 0.36.
P[R] 0.25