MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Rick Shaftan, Neighborhood Research and Media
RE: Iowa Survey, November 2021
DATE: November 15, 2021

TRUMP LEADS DESANTIS 56-12 IN

OPEN-ENDED PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT
“If the 2024 Iowa Caucus were today, who would be your first
choice for President?”

DEF. CHURCH VERY SOMEW. Under MEN WOMEN

ALL VOTE 1X/WK CONS CONS MOD. 50 65+ MALE FEMALE 35+ 35+

Trump 55.7% 58.1% 56.2% 62.3% 46.7% 45.0% 52.3% 58.0% 50.5% 61.5% 48.9% 63.8%

Undecided 20.8% 18.6% 21.7% 15.9% 27.2% 30.0% 16.3% 21.6% 22.3% 19.5% 23.6% 18.4%

DeSantis 12.3% 12.4% 11.3% 12.7% 10.9% 11.7% 18.6% 9.1% 15.8% 8.1% 15.9% 6.8%

Noem 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 1.4% 5.4% 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 3.0% 1.2% 3.3% 1.2%

Cotton 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%

Pence 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1% 3.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.0% 2.3% 1.1% 2.5%

Haley 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2%

Cruz 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6%

Rubio 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 2.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2%

Scott 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 2.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6%

OBSERVATIONS
1. President Trump has a reverse gender gap, the opposite from
what was seen earlier in his career.

2. Among the (small number of) under 35 voters we surveyed, we

found opposite reactions to the rest of the electorate.
Men were much more pro-Trump and women less so. Striking
 difference. Under 35 voters made up 8 percent of
respondents.

3. The gender gap among voters over 35 was stark. Trump led
DeSantis 64-7 with 35+ women, but only 49-16 with 35+ men.

4. When second choice votes are counted, Trump has 62%,

DeSantis 38%, Noem 4%, Pence 3%, Cruz 3%, Haley 2%. Adding
in third choice votes, Trump has 65%, DeSantis 39%, Noem
5%, Cruz 5%, Pence 4%, Haley 3%.

5. 35 percent of respondents did not pick Trump for any of

their three choices including 14 percent of very
conservative voters, 43 percent of somewhat conservative
voters and half of moderates.

6. Among those listed on the file as political donors, an

amazing 56 percent of respondents, Trump leads DeSantis 53-
15 with 22 percent undecided. 24 percent are religious
donors and Trump holds a 49-13 lead with these voters (21
percent undecided). Noem has 4 percent.

7. Half of Noem’s first place votes comes from the Sioux City
and Sioux Falls TV Markets.

8. 45 percent of respondents attend weekly church services and

86 percent gave a specific church name when asked. Of this
group, 37 percent attend Baptist or Non-Denominational
Christ churches, 19 percent go to Lutheran churches, 17
percent Catholic, 16 percent are mainline Protestant,
mostly Methodist, Congregationalist and Disciples of
Christ, 8 percent are Reformed, 3 percent are Presbyterian.

9. Of these voters, mainline Protestants are most enthusiastic

in their Trump support, backing him by 77-0 over DeSantis.
Baptists and Non-Denominationals back Trump by 62-13 and
Catholics back Trump by a similar 61-11. But the Trump
leads fall off with Presbyterians, Lutherans and Reformed
churchgoers, where he leads by only 38-12 (6 for Noem, but
much of that is geography). Trump is particularly weak
with Reformed voters.

10. Among the high-turnout group of very conservative

women 35+, Trump leads DeSantis by a huge 69-3 margin.
 11. While these numbers on the surface look good for the
45th President, the reverse gender gap is a cause for
concern with numbers barely over 50 percent with men, and
under when looking at politically influential 35+ men.

12. DeSantis’s strength with 35+ men who make up a large

share of the political class is not only a long-term
concern for Trump, but his strength, especially among Trump
voters on the second ballot, sucks all the oxygen away from
any other potential candidate. DeSantis gets support on
one of the three ballots from 39 percent of voters. Kristi
Noem is next at only 5 percent.

13. Among Trump voters, 61 percent do not have a second

choice, 25 percent pick DeSantis, 3 percent pick Pence.
Noem and Ivanka are tied at 1.5 percent. That DeSantis
number jumps slightly to 28 percent among very conservative
Trump voters.

14. 17 percent of caucusers listen to WHO Radio and Trump

leads 60-18 there. He has smaller leads, however, among
those who listen to other Iowa talk stations other than
WHO. (Radio was asked as an open-ended question).

15. Should Trump choose not to run, DeSantis becomes the

immediate frontrunner and Republicans across America will
be tripping over each other to endorse him first. DeSantis
knows this and that gives him the ability to hang back and
play it cool.

The data is based from responses from 375 Iowans who voted in
either the 2016, 2018 and 2020 Republican Primary and who said
it was “definite” or “very likely” they would participate in the
2024 Iowa Republican Caucus.
Calls were completed on November 3-5 and 8-12 with live callers
from our facilities in Nags Head, North Carolina. 53 percent of
calls were made to cellphone numbers with the rest to landlines.
The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.05% in 95% of cases on
a 50 percent response.

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