IE5203 Decision Analysis Term Paper

2020/2021 Semester I
Submission date: 20 Nov 2020

Soh Li Jing (A0209476W)

1. Introduction
The global is experiencing COVID-19 pandemic. It could be the largest test of political leadership the
world has ever witnessed. With the 1st known case of coronavirus traced back to November 2019 in
China, the global has entered pandemic mode for one year. Within one-year, different countries have
reacted wildly differently with different policies at different stages, these can be categorized in three
categories:

▪ Full Lock Down (Strict Movement Control/ Circuit Breaker)

▪ Conditional Lock Down (Conditional Movement Control)
▪ Relaxed Lock Down
o Relaxed Lock Down allows entertainment business to fully reopen. (e.g. Korea,
Taiwan are at this stage)
Many decisions must be made dynamically to adapt the changing scenario and environment.

Below table generally presents key differences of three policies:

Table 1
Full Lock Down Conditional Lock Down Relaxed Lock Down
Go to school No Yes (with social distancing) Yes
Restaurant Dine-in No Yes (with social distancing) Yes
Essential Business Yes Yes Yes
Non-essential No Yes (with social distancing) Yes
Business
Entertainment No No Yes
Business
Cross-state travel No Yes Yes
Allowing big group No No Yes
event (concert, etc)
Ease of access to No No No
country border
2. Objective
This paper aims to demonstrate the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process and YAAHP software to
analyse the decision making by a National Government. It also aims to observe how the conflict and
interaction of criterion’s priority may yield to possibly good decision to the ruling party but bad
decision to the country.
Four aspects of criterion would be the considered:
▪ Political Party’s Ruling Stability
▪ Public Health Safety
▪ Economy
▪ People Satisfaction
The details of above criterion would be explained in detail in later section.
Disclaimer: The analysis is purely conducted based on author opinion and news reading.
3. Modelling using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
In this paper, the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process learnt in IE5203 Decision Analysis (Chapter 9)
will be used to decompose, prioritize, synthesize the goal of 1) people and 2) current government
based on selected country. Sensitivity analysis would be done as well to simulate the priority changes
in each country.

The Saaty’s 9-point scale whose validity supported by empirical studies would be used to rank the
importance of each criterion:

Figure 1: Saaty’s 9-point Scale

Preliminary Case Study: Malaysia

To construct the AHP model, Malaysia government goal would be used as preliminary case study due
to its rich of complexity inside its government. Unlike United State who deems pandemic as the reason
dragging down economy, Malaysia political instability has been deemed as the main element dragging
the nation’s economy in the pandemic. [1] [2] It would be interesting to look at how the priority
difference between Malaysia government and People can lead to different policy outcome.

3.1 People Satisfaction and Modelling for Malaysia

The author, after reviewing on the news from both Eastern and Western countries, concludes the
following criterion to achieve the goal of People Satisfaction.
▪ Public Health Safety – the lesser the COVID-19 new cases, the safer people feel;
▪ Economy – which is deemed to reflect the individual’s income stability;
▪ Civil Liberties – which is deemed as the freedom or human rights, some people may refuse
to stay home or being quarantined; [3]

A pairwise comparison for each criterion(green) and against each policy(blue) are initialized as
shown:

Figure 2: Hierarchy Modelling Result & Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Criterion
Different people can have different priorities when it comes to above three aspects. A survey in
conducted in Malaysia sums up type A and type B people. [4]. Below summarizes the sensitivity
analysis which could be used represent each type of people:

▪ Type A is defined as Malaysians who think that Public Health is the most critical issue to
solve, as a result, a full lock down is preferred:

Figure 3: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Public Health Dominating

▪ Type B is defined as Malaysians who equally value both economy and public health more than
civil liberties, as a result, conditional lock down is a better choice for them:

Figure 4: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Public Health and Economy Equally Dominating

▪ Type C is defined as people who see freedom and human right extremely important, they are
against from stricter movement restriction even though it is for the sake of curbing disease
spread. Type C people is also defined to prioritize Economy. Type C people are usually from
grassroot group who believes that pandemic does not exist (This group of people are of
minority among Malaysian), a relaxed lock down is preferred:
 Figure 5: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Civil Liberties Dominating

▪ Type D is people who see all criterions equally important, it would be indecisive choice for
them to choose between relaxed or conditional lock down.

Figure 6: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Equally Weighted Criteria

Table 2 summarizes type of people with their opinion in terms of their priorities and preferred policies.
This simulates the scenario in real life where the author has read from the global news. In the National
Government Satisfaction, Type A to C would be combined into a single People Satisfaction criterion.

To simplify the People Satisfaction AHP model, people who values economy more than public health
is not discussed in the paper. Instead, a government valuing economy more than healthcare would be
discussed. However, it can be modelled using the similar framework as illustrated above.

Table 2:
Type Priority Preferred Policy Country People Example
A Public Health > Economy > Freedom Full lock down Singapore (in March)
B Economy = Public Health > Freedom Conditional lock down Taiwan, Korea (in March)
C Freedom = Economy > Public Health Relaxed lock down Italy (in March)
D Economy = Public Health = Freedom NA. N.A.
3.2 Current National Government Satisfaction and Modelling in Malaysia
There are a few criteria decomposed and deemed as critical by the author opinion:

▪ Political Party’s Ruling Stability

o Winning of Election - Countries like Malaysia, Singapore and America deploy
conditional lockdown and hold the state-wide or nationwide election during the
COVID-19 period despite the higher risk of sparking COVID-19 outbreak. Experts point
out that holding election in pandemic could result in lesser turn out and potentially
lesser competition for ruling party as the opposition party have lesser chance to
promote their party in rural area [5]. Perhaps, a good timing and policy that facilitate
winning chance is one of the criteria to fulfil current government satisfaction. For
country like Malaysia, winning election is critically important to reinforce the political
party’s power.
o Control of Nation – Malaysia’s current Prime Minister had sought for approval to
enter state of emergency in October 2020. Although above proposal had been
rejected, politician shows the preference towards FULL LOCK DOWN Policy to
stabilize his leadership. A full lock down policy would give the possibility to quarantine
the opposition party leader or restrict the need for parliament [6]

▪ Public Health Safety – Despite the politician, businessman, and people are owning different
opinions about the nation’s health safety, it is still an essential criterion to consider, to avoid
collapse of national healthcare system. For infectious disease pandemic, the preference is:
Full Lock Down > Conditional Lock Down > Relaxed Lock Down.

▪ Economy Satisfaction - Government must take economy health as important criterion to

sustain the nation’s economy and avoid low employment rate. The preference is: Relaxed
Lock Down > Conditional Lock Down > Full Lock Down.

▪ People Satisfaction – An essential criterion to consider winning the people’s support for the
current government. As seen in Table 2 earlier, Type A to C is combined to puzzle into a single
People Satisfaction criterion:
o Type A – People who prioritizes Public Health Safety
o Type B – Business owner, Job seeker
o Type C – Anti-lock far-right groups
The Hierarchy for Malaysia Government Satisfaction for each criterion(green) and each policy(blue):

Figure 7: Hierarchy Modelling Result & Pairwise Comparison for National Government
Satisfaction

3.2.1 Priority of Winning Election vs Control of Nation

The government priority of Winning Election or Control of Nation under Political Party’s Ruling
Stability is varying based on two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Malaysia State Election at Sabah

In September 2020, Sabah’s coalition government and coalition opposition both claimed to have the
majority to form the government. A snap Sabah state election was called after such political crisis
arose. It results in the winning of coalition opposition which consists of current Malaysia Prime
Minister’s political party.

In fact, Malaysia election reform panel welcomes move to postpone polls during crisis [7]. Despite
such disclaimer by the election reform panel, the politician still favours an election. Therefore, an
election has been deemed as a coalition opposition’s trick to reform the desired government.

In Figure 8, when Winning of Election has the higher priority (higher weightage), it is modelled such
that politician preference would be Conditional > Relaxed > Full Lock Down, so that election can be
held while there is still control over spread of virus. Such intention would be dangerous to tackle Public
Health Safety.

Figure 8: Policy Pairwise Comparison for Winning Election using YAAHP Interface

Scenario 2: Lack of Support by Malaysia Prime Minister in the Government

In Feb 2020, Malaysia government leadership power changed hands in 24 hours after the current
Prime Minister claimed to have majority support. Since then, the new Prime Minister has been in
vulnerable position as another opposition leader claiming to have enough parliamentary support to
unseat him and disapprove his financial budget. [8]

When Gaining Control of Nation plays the main priority, it is modelled such that politician would tend
to make a Full Lock Down (or equivalent to Nation Emergency State), so that parliament can be
suspended and any budget or policy proposal can be approved without questioning in parliament. The
politician preference would then be Full Lock Down> Conditional > Relaxed. [9]

Figure 9: Policy Pairwise Comparison for Control of Nation using YAAHP Interface

3.2.2 Decomposing Type of People in Malaysia

A survey done in May 2020 at Malaysia reveals that 82% Malaysian were worried about their personal
health while 68% of them were worried about both their job and health due to economy recession.
There is no significant number of people highlighted their concern about civil liberties in the survey
[4]. In Asia, it is unlikely that civil liberties would become more important than health and ‘bread’.
Therefore, the priority for Type of people is: Type A > Type B >Type C and its priorities mark is given
below. The policy preference of each type of people is listed in Table 2 in earlier section.

Figure 10: Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Subcomponents using YAAHP Interface

Therefore, based on the survey, Malaysian may prefer a Full Lock Down to cease the COVID-19 virus
thoroughly before the economy and border re-opened.
4. Malaysia Case Study – Reflection – Sensitivity Analysis for Political Criterion
Malaysia announced Full Lock Down policy back in March 2020 and entered Condition Lock Down on
4th May 2020. It had received mixed reactions by state governments. Health experts and the public
were having concerns of a possible resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia due to the seemingly
reckless and unnecessary relaxation of the MCO. [10]

Malaysia in May 2020

Figure 11 and Figure 12 show the better option by National Government should be continuing Full
Lock Down provided with zero priority ( zero <0.45) on politician personal criterion and if equal priority
on other. It is so because that Public Health Safety is still a big concern by People Satisfaction and
National Healthcare System based on survey [4].

Figure 11: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Equally Weighted Criteria

Figure 12: Rainbow Diagram on the Impact of Changing weight of Criterion Political Party’s Ruling
Stability
When adding back Political Party’s Ruling Stability, particularly of Winning Election, Conditional Lock
Down policy (green line) dominates other policy (See Figure 13). When politician prioritizes personal
winning more than Public Health at wrong time, it would result in unfavoured policy, which may waste
the effort spent for Full Lock Down and damage the nation economy further.

Figure 13: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Prioritizing Politic Criterion

Figure 14 demonstrates a shift from Type A to Type B people compared to Figure 10. When the
composition of people B takes more weightage, Figure 15 shows that a transition from Full Lock Down
to Conditional Lock Down is possible as both polices score equally in the government goal.

It implies that only when the public have less worrying about Public Health Safety, with more people
strictly following the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to contain COVID-19 virus, then the
Condition Lock down policy would be welcomed. Therefore, before entering Conditional Lock Down,
Malaysia government should be proactive to shift Type A people to Type B people. Several ways to
increase Type B people includes:

▪ Strict punishment for people and business caught violating the SOP to lessen people worry.
▪ Conducting free COVID-19 testing kit for high risk people if financially allowed, etc.
▪ Increase awareness of Public Health System by Distributing Mask, etc.

Figure 14: Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Subcomponents (B > A >C)

Figure 15: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Equally Weighted Criteria Excluding Politic Criterion
5. Singapore Case Study – Reflection
Singapore tightened the nation movement control measure to DORSCON Yellow level (Conditional
Lock Down level) on 7 April 2020 and two weeks later to Orange level (Full Lock Down level). It then
exited and entered Conditional Lock Down on 5 May 2020 which is one day later compared to
Malaysia. [11]

Singapore in May 2020

In a survey based on nationally representative sample of 1000 Singaporeans conducted on 16 March,
Singaporean has shown their confidence in the government measure. [12] Another survey shows that
78% Singaporean were worried about ‘Economy’ and 74% Singaporean were worried about ‘Public
Health Safety’. The small difference in the figures symbolizes majority of Singaporeans are Type B
people who values both ‘Public Health Safety’ and ‘Economy’ approximately equal. [13]

At the similar timing as Malaysia, Singapore ruling party has the personal preference of Winning of
Election in the July 2020 nation election. Unlike Malaysia, it is reasonable for Singapore to enter
Conditional Lock Down.

As modelled in Figure 16, the People Satisfaction is mainly compounded by Type B people according
to above survey. During the full lock down period, Singapore government has also demonstrated its
capability strict punishment upon violation of safety measure and conduct free COVID-19 testing kit
for high risk group of people.

Figure 17 shows the possibility to exit from Full Lock Down to enter Conditional Lock Down as people
has the same goal aligned with government.

Taking sufficient actions in Lock Down period to increase people confidence is the key action
government should do. After which, government can lift the restriction to Conditional Lock Down and
conduct election without conflict with the people.

Figure 16: Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Subcomponents in Singapore (B > A >C)

Figure 17: Rainbow Diagram on the Impact of Changing weight of People Satisfaction in Singapore
Model

The confidence built among people during lock down period could kill two birds in one stone:
helping ruling party of winning people satisfaction (support) and securing election winning.
6. Case Study – Germany – Sensitivity Analysis for Civil Liberties
Germany is one of the European countries succeeded in curbing COVID-19 in early 2020 due to its
well-developed healthcare system and full access for its people to medical care.

Germany in November 2020

However, Germany has seen exponential rise of COVID-19 new cases since late October 2020. On 13th
November 2020, a riot happened in Germany, Berlin, to against the stricter COVID-19 restriction to
curb second wave to virus spread [14]. It is hard to deny that Type C people (See Table 2 for details)
could be a big challenge for government.

Figure 18 demonstrates a possible scenario of shift from Type A to Type C people compared to Figure
10. It is modelled such that the majority in the hierarchy of People Satisfaction in Germany is Type C
more than Type B, Type B more than Type A.

Figure 18: Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Subcomponents in Singapore (C > B >A)

Considering above changes, below new model constructs current Germany Government Decision Goal
in November. Political Party’s Ruling Stability is removed as it is believed not a significant criterion in
Germany at this moment. The Germany economy is believed less worrying than Public Health Safety
as it had seen ‘far above expectation growth [15].

Figure 19 shows that if the government aims to safeguard public health more than other criteria, it
should forcefully implement lock down.

Figure 19: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Prioritising Public Health Safety at 0.6

However, in Figure 20 and 21, Public Health Safety Sensitivity Rainbow Diagram shows that there is a
transition point of Public Safety Weightage at 0.42: if people are violently expressing thru protest
about their need for more priority on their satisfaction of freedom, the government might need to
increase their weightage on people and reduce weightage of Public Health Safety slightly. At this point,
it is indecisive for two extreme policies Full Lock Down and Relaxed Lock Down.
 Figure 20: Rainbow Diagram on the Impact of Changing weight of Public Health Safety in Germany
Model

Figure 21: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Prioritising Public Health Safety at 0.42

To tackle this issue, the government can benchmark the model and conclusion obtained in Section
4&5, which basically include following steps:
Step 1) Start by entering Conditional Lock Down from Relaxed Lock Down and being proactive in
raising the public health safety awareness to shift protester from Type C to Type A / Type B.
Step 2) Enter Full Lock Down if Public Health Safety becomes out of control.
Step 3) Being proactive in raising the public health safety awareness to shift protester from Type
C to Type A / Type B.
Step 4) Enter Conditional Lock Down only when the people show responsibility and awareness
about public health. This requires more survey to understand people satisfaction subcomponent
and corresponding weightage.

The Singapore approach is a demonstration to avoid straight jump from Relaxed Lock Down to Full
Lock Down and vice versa unless the Nation’s People could widely accept it.
7. Case Study – United State – Sensitivity Analysis for Economy
United States, being the world’s largest economy wealthy country, has been criticised for lack of
efficiency in dealing COVID-19 outbreak.

United State in May 2020

A survey shows that majority of Americans are against quick lifted restriction on public activity and
most agreed of them think that focusing on coronavirus infections reduction is the key the recover
damaged economy. [16] [17] This is equivalent to the fact that majority of American are against
relaxed lock down and give highest priority to Public Health Safety (See Figure 23).

Figure 22: Survey Retrieved from PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Figure 23: Pairwise Comparison for People Satisfaction Subcomponents in US (A > B >C)

In contrast to majority of American, the US current president had mentioned in May 2020 that the
American economy will skyrocket once stay-at-home orders and other restrictions are lifted. [18] This
implies the eagerness of the America National Government is to recover US economy. Its highest
priority of in dealing pandemic crisis goes to Economy.

Ruling stability is deemed less significant for US case study. Figure 24 models the situation in United
State. A better option for the government is continue staying in Full Lock Down policy if needed to
value all criterion at same level.

Figure 24: Sensitivity Analysis with YAAHP, Equally Weighted Criteria

In Figure 25, Economy sensitivity Rainbow Diagram shows that if Economy is valued by the
government more than 0.49 despite urgent need to prioritise People Satisfaction and Public Health
Safety, it would result in direct jump to Relaxed Lock Down Policy from Full Lock Down.

Any priority assignment that results in straight jump from Full Lock Down to Relaxed Lock Down should
be avoided.

A better way should be going through transition of Conditional Lock Down. It could be achieved by
shifting people from Type A to Type B as mentioned in Section 4. Only when people have reduced
anxiety and concern on public health safety, then they would start to value and contribute economy
recovery in the public health crisis more effectively.

Figure 25: Rainbow Diagram on the Impact of Changing weight of Economy in US Model

8. Conclusion
The pandemic would come back at any time in the future. This paper has demonstrated how AHP and
YAAHP model could be applied to analyse and understand the optimal decision to adapt varying
challenge within the country.

The key observation is any priority assignment should avoid conflict of straight jump from two policies
without going through a transition policy.

The people satisfaction is a major criterion which truly cannot be neglected. After the COVID-19
pandemic, the world should learn to improve their education system of raising public health
awareness. This is especially crucial for countries full of demonstrators emphasizes on freedom. In the
application of AHP modelling, it is easy to see that a clarity of action cannot be found (i.e. Germany
case) unless the people (protester) refresh their priority differently. To effectively reduce the conflict
when government must impose stricter safety measure upon uncontrollable disease spreading
outbreak, people should also be educated to shift priority for public safety in pandemic.

As demonstrated in the AHP model, the overweighted of personal criterion by the ruling party
becomes a critical issue in policy making during pandemic crisis. A democratic country should consider
forming a special panel to make special independent decision in pandemic without influenced by
politician and ruling party. This could be the only way to make a policy decision with clarity of action
and reduce the harm from political turmoil.
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