Assignment 1

1. Problem analysis

Step: 1 identify the core problem

Lack of sufficient clean water

Step: 2 listed all related problem with the core problem

Cause

1. Social awareness
2. Lack of water treatment
3. Poor water management
4. Corruption
5. Political instability
6. Poor sanitation and hygiene
7. Population growth and urbanization
8. Global climate change
9. Ecosystem lose

Effect

1. Contaminated human and animals

2. Heathy problem in the villages
3. Drying lakes and shallow
4. Lack of irrigation
5. Agriculture problem
6. Death1
Step 3: relate causal & effect and arrangement problem diagram

2. Objective analysis

Step: 1 convert the core problem to positive side

Improve sufficient lack of water in rural area

Step: 2 listed all related positive side core problem

Means

1. awareness created to the community

2. spread message to the community
 3. improve poor water management
4. improve poor sanitation hygiene
5. improve political and economic stability
6. increase the water source and installation

Ends

1. control population growth

2. improve healthy problem in the village
3. controlled drying lakes
4. improve irrigation
5. Improve agriculture problem
6. Decrease death mortality

Step: 3 relate means & ends effect and arrangement diagram

 3. Alternative analysis

This analysis aim to minimized the objective three in simple format and removed more have similar
solution in to the means and ends .

From means (1) & (2) have similar effect solution we can remove one of them and (3) and (4) almost
same solution water management included increase water source and installation therefore we can
remove (4) from means

From ends (1) and (6) have similar effect improve healthy status internally we can minimized death
mortality therefore we can avoid (6) decrease death mortality and (4) and (5) included one management
system and removed (4)

The diagram of alternative is

 Assignment 2

Objective verifiable Source of varication Assumption

indictor
Goal (x) times targeted area fund raiser, regular High commitment fund
Improve sufficient lack get accesses efficient reporter, village raiser and tank water
of water in rural area water source administrator source provider

Purpose Number of death Hospital and clinic infection disease

1.to improve health decrease records reduced
status in rural area
(x) number of villager Survey targeted people Immigration reduced
2.protect from protected by seasonal
seasonal drought drought Rainfall , lake .river and
spring water,
3.to promote irrigation X times availability
system water source

Output 1. Number of rural Local authority The fund raiser and

1.constract water area and village people observer local villager and force
installation from drill lack of sufficient of to established
underground water User or village
Construction of (X) community For political purpose
2.Water is delivered to piped water schemes in participation force to established
villages in a tanker, areas
2. (x) number of water
supplier or provider

Activities Water installation Regular report on cost governmental and non-

Budget technicians and effect change governmental fund
Recruit and train staff Water conservation raiser like NGO and
Vehicle and transport trainer private investor
Small road Material equipment willingness of
construction employee working in
rural area
 Assignment 3

1. Draw the network? Find the CP?

2. What is the probability of completing the project by 36 days?
3. What is the probability of finishing the project by 28 days?
Solution

1.Draw the network? Find the ?CP

Answer
Step 1

Step 2 to find the critical path

Compute the expiated duration of each activities

O  4 ML  P
ExpectedTime
6 O = Optimistic time represent by a
Ml = Most likely represent by m
P = Pessimistic represent by b

Activity Predecessors Time estimates Expected duration

a m b  a  4m  b 
 ED 6 
A - 2 4 8 4.33
B - 4 6 10 6.33
C A 6 6 6 6
 D A 2 8 14 8
E A 6 8 12 8.33
F B,C 9 3 15 6
G D,F 8 16 20 15.33
H D,F 4 4 4 4
I E, H 4 8 10 7.66

Total number of path = 7

A, E, I = 4.33 + 8.33 + 7.66 = 20.32
A, D, H, I = 4.33 + 8 +4 + 7.66 = 23.99
A, D, G = 4.33 + 8 + 15.33 = 27.66
A, C, F, H, I = 4.33 + 6+6+4+7.66 = 27.99
A, C, F, G = 4.33 + 6+ 6 + 15.33 = 31.66
B, F, G = 6.33 +6 + 15.33 = 27.66
B, F, H, I = 6.33 + 6+ 4+ 7.66 =23.99
Therefore A, C, F, G the longest or the critical path of the network it will take
31.66 days to complete the activity’s.
Then Cp the network diagram is

What is the probability of completing the project by 36

and 28 days?
Calculate the SD of each activity on the critical path using the
formula b a
6
Standard deviation of activity duration of critical path: A, C, F, G
82
Activity A = 1
6
Activity C = 6 6 6  0
Activity F= 36 2.23
31.66
 1.946

Activity G= 20  8  2 Commented [t1]:

6

2
Variance of activity duration:  b  a 
 6 
• Find the combined standard deviation of all activities on the critical path

12  02  02  22  2.23 weeks
 2. What is the probability of completing the project by 36 days?
Z (standard normal deviate) = [x-q]/SD

x= expected days, q= the length of duration the critical path, SD = standard deviation

Therefore 36  31.66
 1.946 From Positive Z score table (0.97391)
2.23

In this case the probability of achieving the scheduled date of week 36 is 97%.

3. What is the probability of finishing the project by 28 days?

28  31.66
 1.641 From Negative Z score table (0.05050)
2.23

In this case the probability of achieving the scheduled date of week 28 is 5.05%.
 Assignment 4
1. Calculate the slop

crash cost  normal cos t

SLOP =
normal time - crash time

activity Preceding Time cost

Activity

Normal Crash Normal crash slope

A - 6 4 500 620 60

B - 4 2 300 390 45

C A 7 6 650 680 30

D A 3 2 400 450 50

E B,C 5 3 850 1000 75

Total = 2700

2. Draw the network diagram

3. Determine the project completion time

No of path AND COMPALTION TIME

A,d = 9 days

B,E = 9 days
 A,C,E = 18 days

4. Determine the critical path

A,C,E = 18 days the longest path the network

5. Construct a least cost schedule for the network (crash it )

Step 1: the first is to determine the normal costs and normal duration of the project

The critical path are A,C,E

A,d = 7days

B,E = 7days

A,C,E = 18 days

Normal project duration is 18 days

Direct cost = 2700 birr

Indirect cost = 120 x 18 = 2160

Total cost = Direct cost + Indirect cost = 2700 + 2160 = 4860

Step 2: reduce the least cost slop from critical activity

The critical activity LIMTI CRASH AND SLOWEST SLOP ORDRLY

Maximum SLOEWST
limit crush SLOP (crash
cost)

C 1 30

A 2 60

E 2 75

Total crash 5 days

day

Maximum reduced day = 5

Now let us crash with the slowest slop activity C reduced by 1 day
The critical path A,C.E not changed

A,d = 9 days

B,E = 9 days

A,C,E = 17 days

Now project duration 17 days

Direct cost = cost step 1 + crash cost of C x reduced days = 2700 + (30 x1) = 2730

Indirect cost = 120days x project duration 17 days = 2040

Total cost = Direct cost + Indirect cost = 2730 + 2040 = 4770

Step 3 since we have fully crashed activity C now crash the second lowest slop activity A by 2 days

The critical path A,C.E not changed

A,d = 7 days

B,E = 9 days

A, C, E = 15 days

Now project duration = 17- 2 = 15 days

Direct cost = cost step 2 + crash cost of A x reduced days = 2730 + (60 x2) = 2850

Indirect cost = 120days x project duration 15 days = 1800

Total cost = Direct cost + Indirect cost = 2850 + 1800 = 4650

STEP 4: we have fully crash activity c now crash the third lowest slop activity E by 2 days

The critical path A, C.E still not changed

A,d = 7days

B,E = 7days

A,C,E = 13 days

Now project duration = 15- 2 = 13days

Direct cost = cost step 3 + crash cost of E x reduced days = 2850+ (75 x2) = 3000

Indirect cost = 120days x project duration 13 days = 1560

Total cost = Direct cost + Indirect cost = 3000 + 1560 = 4550

Conclusion

Finally No of path AND COMPALTION TIME

A,d = 7 days

B,E = 7 days

A,C,E = 13 days

Now we have fully crashed all critical path activity but still not changed critical path and we reached the
maximum crush limit 5 days therefore no need further crash.

Project duration = 13 days total project cost = 4550

The end