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Industry Disconnect: Presentation To
Industry Disconnect: Presentation To
Presentation to
James Enck
Daiwa Securities SMBC/Daiwa Institute of Research
-1-
• European Telecom
Analyst/Global Telecom
Strategist (whatever that is).
• Three years ago I started to
focus on the bear case for
the incumbents – changes in
technology and consumer
behavior which would/will
challenge their business case
assumptions.
-2-
james.enck@dir.co.uk
http://eurotelcoblog.blogspot.com
-3-
Source: RetroGrafix
-4-
-5-
-6-
• Voice is being
redefined by people
with unfamiliar
agendas and a proven
ability to innovate
• Rather than the
“free/not free”
argument, let’s think
about where voice is
really going, and why
-7-
Source: Daiwa, from a major European VoIP player, actual values rebased
-8-
-9-
1200
975
1000
Roughly 1/3 in Europe
800
C.2.5m concurrent
600 users, c.6 - 7m total
on a given day –
400 that’s 4% of
broadband users -
200
170 GLOBALLY
54
0
World internet users Broadband connections Skype users
Me )
M
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(Pr er
IRC
e
ICQ
ary
nge
Lit
g
AI
AI ssen
Ya priet
sse
ICQ
e
o
NM
o!
60,000,000
ho
MS
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000 48m minutes/6 - 7m
10,000,000 users = c.8min./user/day
0
Nov-04
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Apr-05
May-05
Sep-05
Oct-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
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- 15 -
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- 17 -
Hmmm…
- 18 -
Put “Destroy
Telecom” on
my wish
list…
- 19 -
Telcos Consumers
- 20 -
- 21 -
- 22 -
- 23 -
- 24 -
10,000,000 2
R = 0.98
9,500,000
9,000,000
8,500,000
8,000,000
7,500,000
7,000,000
Total Current Subscribers
6,500,000
6,000,000
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05
Source: MMOGChart
- 25 -
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05
- 26 -
- 27 -