National Central University Graduate Institute of Applied Geology 110-1 Seminar

Failure Probability of a Dip Slope:

The Aspect of Geological and Hydro-Geotechnical
Uncertainty

Presenter：Alvian Rizky Yanuardian

Advisor：Prof. Jia-Jyun Dong
Date：2021/11/04

Abstract

Interbedded sandstone and shale of dip slopes with slightly to moderately

weathered condition is mainly prone to landslide due to heavy rainfall. This research
mainly discusses how geological and hydro-geotechnical uncertainty influences the
failure probability of a dip slope, especially at National Yang-Ming University.
Geological aspects are essential in determining hydraulic conductivity and indirectly
influence the distribution of pore water pressure. In slope stability issues, the pore water
pressure is of utmost importance. On the other hand, the distribution of rock units is
different in the vertical and horizontal direction in the research area, which causes the
hydraulic conductivity to be anisotropy. Moreover, groundwater flows not only through
inter-granular but joints also. As a result, the identification of pore water pressure in
rock slopes is more complex. Using a verified geological model will help reduce the
uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity and pore water pressure distribution. And then,
adding the point estimate method to identify the failure probability and get a measurable
result are the final. Geological investigation results show that sedimentary structure is
essential for identifying the key-bed. Besides that, comparison among key-bed, yellow
zone, and discontinuities within boreholes are relatively the same. It indicates that the
proposed geological model is suitable with factual data from the boreholes. The future
works will mainly focus on the geological and hydrogeological investigation of shallow
parts, especially for identifying weak zone. Then, making a model for slope stability
and calculating failure probability.

Keywords: Dip slope, Geological and hydro-geotechnical uncertainty, Point

estimate method, Failure probability.