The data below repreent the sales of a business during the last 72 weeks in '000 R$.

You have
1) Prepare a chart in a new tab with the original data and your four forecasts
2) Make two types of moving average forecast, one with few periods and another with a long
periods and weights.
3) Make two types os exponential smoothing forecasts with different alphas.
4) Evaluate all four forecast erros with MAD, MAPE and MPE for the last 20 observations
5) Interpret the error measures for each forecast

Intercept 1532.69 Alpha 0.7

Slope 14.50 Beta 0.3

Period Sales L T Forecast

1 1109.7 1532.69 14.50
2 1122.8 1250.12 -74.62 1547.20
3 1265.5 1238.50 -55.72 1175.50
4 1334.6 1289.05 -23.84 1182.78
5 1286.8 1280.33 -19.30 1265.22
6 1301.6 1289.43 -10.78 1261.02
7 1059.1 1124.96 -56.89 1278.64
8 1067.2 1067.46 -57.07 1068.08
9 1321.7 1228.31 8.30 1010.39
10 1098.2 1139.72 -20.76 1236.61
11 1076.5 1089.24 -29.68 1118.96
12 1304.6 1231.09 21.78 1059.56
13 1144.4 1176.94 -1.00 1252.87
14 1256.3 1232.19 15.88 1175.94
15 1217.5 1226.67 9.46 1248.07
16 1366.0 1327.04 36.73 1236.13
17 1385.6 1379.05 41.31 1363.77
18 1479.1 1461.48 53.65 1420.37
19 1623.4 1590.92 76.39 1515.13
20 1695.3 1686.90 82.27 1667.30
21 1965.4 1906.53 123.47 1769.17
22 1762.5 1842.75 67.30 2030.00
23 1936.5 1928.56 72.85 1910.05
24 2124.8 2087.79 98.76 2001.42
25 2015.1 2066.53 62.76 2186.55
26 2320.4 2263.07 102.89 2129.29
27 2509.4 2466.37 133.01 2365.96
28 2344.0 2420.61 79.38 2599.38
29 2582.7 2557.89 96.75 2500.00
30 2629.5 2637.04 91.47 2654.64
31 2761.7 2751.74 98.44 2728.51
32 2615.4 2685.84 49.14 2850.18
33 2520.6 2584.91 4.12 2734.97
34 2733.2 2689.95 34.39 2589.03
35 2853.5 2814.75 61.52 2724.34
36 2649.7 2717.67 13.94 2876.27
37 2523.3 2585.79 -29.81 2731.61
38 2568.8 2564.96 -27.12 2555.98
39 2814.4 2731.43 30.96 2537.84
40 2765.8 2764.78 31.68 2762.39
41 2675.5 2711.79 6.28 2796.45
42 2770.5 2754.77 17.29 2718.06
43 2664.2 2696.56 -5.36 2772.06
44 2798.8 2766.52 17.24 2691.20
45 2778.6 2780.15 16.15 2783.75
46 2781.0 2785.59 12.94 2796.30
47 2519.1 2602.93 -45.74 2798.53
48 2827.4 2746.34 11.00 2557.19
49 2815.8 2798.26 23.28 2757.34
50 2583.4 2654.84 -26.73 2821.54
51 2541.3 2567.34 -44.96 2628.11
52 2679.8 2632.58 -11.90 2522.38
53 2647.8 2639.66 -6.21 2620.67
54 2506.2 2544.38 -32.93 2633.46
55 2500.5 2503.78 -35.23 2511.45
56 2417.4 2432.75 -45.97 2468.56
57 2395.9 2393.16 -44.06 2386.78
58 2258.9 2285.96 -63.00 2349.11
59 2285.3 2266.60 -49.91 2222.96
60 2251.7 2241.20 -42.56 2216.69
61 2004.3 2062.60 -83.37 2198.64
62 2157.2 2103.81 -46.00 1979.23
63 2242.6 2187.16 -7.19 2057.82
64 2130.1 2145.06 -17.66 2179.97
65 1967.0 2015.12 -51.35 2127.40
66 1700.0 1779.13 -106.74 1963.77
67 2018.0 1914.32 -34.16 1672.39
68 1682.6 1741.87 -75.65 1880.16
69 1662.5 1663.62 -76.43 1666.22
70 1694.5 1662.31 -53.89 1587.19
71 1526.2 1550.86 -71.16 1608.41
72 1474.4 1475.99 -72.27 1479.71
73 1403.72 -72.27 1403.72
74 1331.45 -72.27 1331.45
75 1259.17 -72.27 1259.17
76 1186.90 -72.27 1186.90
77 1114.63 -72.27 1114.63
78 1042.36 -72.27 1042.36
79 970.09 -72.27 970.09
80 897.81 -72.27 897.81
2 weeks in '000 R$. You have to prepare a forecast for the next 8 weeks.
ur forecasts
ods and another with a longer set o periods. Use your judgement in deciding the number of

rent alphas.
he last 20 observations

Forecast Errors
MAD MAPE MPE MSE RMSE
125.41 6.69% 0.49% 25122.77 158.50

424.40 37.80% 37.80% 180114.33 180114.33

90.00 7.11% -7.11% 8099.98 8099.98
151.82 11.38% -11.38% 23049.16 23049.16
21.58 1.68% -1.68% 465.84 465.84
40.58 3.12% -3.12% 1646.73 1646.73
219.54 20.73% 20.73% 48199.06 48199.06
0.88 0.08% 0.08% 0.77 0.77
311.31 23.55% -23.55% 96912.89 96912.89
138.41 12.60% 12.60% 19157.66 19157.66
42.46 3.94% 3.94% 1802.91 1802.91
245.04 18.78% -18.78% 60045.19 60045.19
108.47 9.48% 9.48% 11765.07 11765.07
80.36 6.40% -6.40% 6457.53 6457.53
30.57 2.51% 2.51% 934.46 934.46
129.87 9.51% -9.51% 16866.80 16866.80
21.83 1.58% -1.58% 476.61 476.61
58.73 3.97% -3.97% 3449.75 3449.75
108.27 6.67% -6.67% 11722.67 11722.67
28.00 1.65% -1.65% 783.74 783.74
196.23 9.98% -9.98% 38507.59 38507.59
267.50 15.18% 15.18% 71558.43 71558.43
26.45 1.37% -1.37% 699.63 699.63
123.38 5.81% -5.81% 15223.19 15223.19
171.45 8.51% 8.51% 29394.58 29394.58
191.11 8.24% -8.24% 36521.69 36521.69
143.44 5.72% -5.72% 20575.21 20575.21
255.38 10.90% 10.90% 65219.80 65219.80
82.70 3.20% -3.20% 6839.59 6839.59
25.14 0.96% 0.96% 632.05 632.05
33.19 1.20% -1.20% 1101.33 1101.33
234.78 8.98% 8.98% 55123.91 55123.91
214.37 8.50% 8.50% 45955.06 45955.06
144.17 5.27% -5.27% 20785.19 20785.19
129.16 4.53% -4.53% 16681.65 16681.65
226.57 8.55% 8.55% 51333.77 51333.77
208.31 8.26% 8.26% 43392.25 43392.25
12.82 0.50% -0.50% 164.23 164.23
276.56 9.83% -9.83% 76485.90 76485.90
3.41 0.12% -0.12% 11.61 11.61
120.95 4.52% 4.52% 14630.07 14630.07
52.44 1.89% -1.89% 2749.66 2749.66
107.86 4.05% 4.05% 11633.14 11633.14
107.60 3.84% -3.84% 11578.77 11578.77
5.15 0.19% 0.19% 26.56 26.56
15.30 0.55% 0.55% 234.06 234.06
279.43 11.09% 11.09% 78081.02 78081.02
270.21 9.56% -9.56% 73014.10 73014.10
58.46 2.08% -2.08% 3417.47 3417.47
238.14 9.22% 9.22% 56712.03 56712.03
86.81 3.42% 3.42% 7536.58 7536.58
157.42 5.87% -5.87% 24779.85 24779.85
27.13 1.02% -1.02% 735.91 735.91
127.26 5.08% 5.08% 16194.01 16194.01
10.95 0.44% 0.44% 119.84 119.84
51.16 2.12% 2.12% 2616.89 2616.89
9.12 0.38% -0.38% 83.26 83.26
90.21 3.99% 3.99% 8137.40 8137.40
62.34 2.73% -2.73% 3885.83 3885.83
35.01 1.55% -1.55% 1225.63 1225.63
194.34 9.70% 9.70% 37768.49 37768.49
177.97 8.25% -8.25% 31671.70 31671.70
184.78 8.24% -8.24% 34145.38 34145.38
49.87 2.34% 2.34% 2487.45 2487.45
160.40 8.15% 8.15% 25727.65 25727.65
263.77 15.52% 15.52% 69575.66 69575.66
345.61 17.13% -17.13% 119444.93 119444.93
197.56 11.74% 11.74% 39028.22 39028.22
3.72 0.22% 0.22% 13.82 13.82
107.31 6.33% -6.33% 11516.30 11516.30
82.21 5.39% 5.39% 6758.86 6758.86
5.31 0.36% 0.36% 28.15 28.15
e number of
 Forecasting Sales
3500.0

3000.0

2500.0

2000.0

1500.0

1000.0

500.0

0.0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79

Sales Forecast