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Module 1 8operations Management
Module 1 8operations Management
Figure
1.
Production is the creation of goods and services. It turns inputs, such as natural resources,
raw materials, human resources, and capital, into outputs, which are goods and services.
This process is shown in the above Figure1. Managing this conversion process is the role
of operations management.
Goods are physical products that can be seen, touch, or possibly consume.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Services are primary or complementary activities that does not directly produce physical
products
Production management is concerned with the process which convert the inputs into
outputs such as men, material, money, method etc. and the output such as goods or
services. H.A.Harding
Example 1.
Collins title Company has a staff of 4 each, each working 8 hours per day (for a payroll cost
of P640/day) and overhead expenses of P400 per day. Collins processes and closes on 8
titles each day. The company recently purchased a computerized title-search system that
will allow the processing of 14 titles per day. Although the staff, their work hours, and pay
are the same, the overhead expenses are now P800 per day. What will be the impact on
productivity of the new system?
Given: Old System New System
no. of staff = 4 working 8 hrs/day 4 working 8 hrs/day
Payroll cost = P640/day P640/day
Overhead expenses = P400/day P800
No. of closes = 8 titles /day 14 titles /day
Required: Impact on productivity
Solution:
Example 3.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Art Binley has decided to look at his productivity from a multifactor (total factor
productivity) perspective. To do so, he has determined his labor, capital, energy. And
material usage and decided to use dollars as the common denominator. His total labor-
hours are now 300 per day and will increase to 308 per day. His capital and energy costs
will remain constant at P350 and P150 per day, respectively. Material costs for the 100
logs per day are P1,000 and will remain the same. If he pays an average of P10 per hour
(with fringes), determine the impact on the productivity.
Given: Labor-hour/day = 300
Material cost for 100 logs/day = P1,000
Capital = P350
Energy = 150
Pay/hour = P10
Required Impact on Productivity
Solution:
1. Reduce Costs Foreign locations with lower wage rates and tariffs can lower direct
and indirect costs.
2. Improve the Supply Chain The supply chain can be improved by locating facilities
closer to countries with unique resources
3. Provide Better Goods and Services In order to provide better goods and services, we
need a better understanding of differences in culture and of the way business is done in
different countries.
4. Understand Markets Interacting with foreign customers and suppliers can lead to
new opportunities. Knowledge of the markets not only helps industries understand where
the market is going but also helps them diversify their customer base, add production
flexibility, and smooth the business cycle.
5. Learn to improve operations. Learning cannot be done alone. Industries are able
to serve their customers well when they are open to free flow of ideas.
6. Attract and Retain Global Talent Global organizations can attract and retain better
employees by offering more employment opportunities. During economic downturns in one
country, a global firm has the means to relocate unneeded personnel to more prosperous
country.
Mission states the purpose or rationale for organization’s existence. This provide
boundaries and focus for organizations and the concept around which the industry can rally.
Once an organization’s mission has been decide, each department within the firm
determines their own mission that is in line with the firm’s mission. Below are some
examples of a firm’s mission.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Strategy on the other hand is an organization’s action plan to achieve the mission.
Each department has a strategy for achieving its own mission and at the same time
helping the firm attain the overall mission. There are three strategic approaches to
competitive advantage - differentiation, cost leadership and response. When we say
competitive advantage, we are referring to the creation of a unique advantage over
competitors.
1.
Differentiation - is concerned with providing uniqueness. This can be attained, for example,
through innovative design, by providing a broad product line, by offering excellent after-sale
service, or through adding a sensory experience to the product or service offering. In the
service sector, one option for differentiation is through experience. The idea of experience
differentiation is to engage the customer to use people’s five senses so they become
immersed, or even an active participant in the product. Example on this are Disney with its
Magic Kingdom and Hard Rock Cafe with its classic rock music, big screen rock videos,
memorabilia, etc.
1. Cost leadership - achieving maximum value, as perceived by the customer. This can
be attained, for example, via low overhead, effective capacity use, or efficient inventory
management. A low cost strategy does not imply low quality.
2. Response - also referred to as flexible response, is a set of values related to rapid,
flexible, and reliable performance. This can be attained, for example, by offering a
flexible product line, reliable scheduling, or speedy delivery.
In practice, these three approaches can increase productivity and generate a
sustainable competitive advantage, as shown in the figure below. Correct
implementation of the following decisions by operations managers will allow these
advantages to be achieved.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
This ten strategic operations management are implemented in ways that provide
competitive advantage.
Issues in Operations Strategy
Whether the operations management strategy is differentiation, cost or response, OM is a
critical player. Hence before establishing and attempting to implement a strategy, some
alternative perspective may be utilized.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
1. Resources view. This is a method used to evaluate the resources at their disposal and
manage or alter them to achieve competitive challenge. This means OM should think in
terms of financial, physical, human, and technological resources available and ensure that
the potential strategy matches with those resources.
2. Value-chain analysis. This is a method that is used to identify activities that represent
strengths, or potential strengths.
3. Five forces method. This is a method of analyzing the five forces-immediate rivals,
potential entrants, customers, suppliers, and substitute products, in the competitive
environment.
The saying “no man is an island” can be applied also in industries. No firm will
survive alone. For the firm to grow, it has to tie up with other firms, most especially outside
the country. International operations provide a significant increase in both the challenges
and opportunities for different firms. Although the job is challenging to operations
managers, international or global operations could improve productivity. There are six
reasons why domestic business operations decide to change to international operation.
They are 1) reduce cost, 2) improve the supply chain, 3) provide better goods and
services, 4) understand markets, 5) learn to improve operations, and 6) attract and retain
global talent.
Establishing a business firm requires a mission and strategy for it to succeed.
Mission is needed so that it will know where it is going and a strategy so it will know how to
get there. Business firms achieve mission in three conceptual ways: 1) differentiation, 2)
cost leadership, and 3) response. These three conceptual ways can be achieved when
managers make effective decisions in ten areas which are called operations decisions.
Business firms, in order to be successful, need to identify its strengths and weaknesses and
complement the opportunities and threats in the environment. If this process is performed
well, the firm can have competitive advantage through some combination of product
differentiation, low cost, and response. This is often achieved through a move to
international, multi domestic, global, or transnational strategies.
This module discusses the project management. According to Jay Heizer and Barry
Render, authors of the book titled Principles of Operations Management, “wherever your
career takes you, one of the most useful tools you can have, as a manager, is the ability to
manage a project”. So it is of utmost importance that we master this topic.
A project refers to a series of related tasks directed toward some major output that
requires to be completed in a specified time considering costs and quality
constraints. Many require a significant period of time to execute. Projects entail different
levels of uncertainty and therefore carry risks. While often thought to be one-time
occurrences, some projects can be repeated or transferred to other settings or products
resulting to another output.
Structuring Projects
Before any project starts, management decides on how the project will be structured and
looks at the characteristics of the project leader. The three organizational structures are
pure project, function project or matrix project.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Pure Project - is a self-contained team works full time on the project. It is a small project
oriented team that is autonomous, an entrepreneurial center of opportunity and
characterized by speed and flexibility (Tom Peters).
Advantages
Only the project manager has full authority over the project.
Team members report to only one boss.
Lines of communication are shorter so that decisions are quick.
Team pride, motivation and commitment are high.
Disadvantages
Resources are duplicated because equipment and people are not shared across
projects.
Team members are often both physically and psychologically removed from
headquarters so that organizational goals and policies are ignored.
Organization lags in its knowledge of new technology due to weakened functional
divisions.
Team members have no functional area home, they Team members worry about life-
after-project because they have no functional area home; project termination may be
delayed.
Functional Project
At the other end of the project organization spectrum is the functional project, housing the
project within a functional division. The organizational structure might look like the one
shown below:
Advantages
Disadvantages
Aspects of the project that are not directly related to the functional area get
shortchanged.
Motivation of team members is often weak.
Needs of the client are secondary and are responded to slowly.
Matrix Project
This attempts to blend the properties of functional and pure project structures.
Each project utilizes people from different functional areas.
The project manager decides what tasks and when they need to be performed but
functional managers control which people and technologies are to be used.
Different projects (rows of the matrix) borrow resources from functional areas
(columns).
Senior management decides whether a weak, balanced or strong form of a matrix.
This refers to whether project managers have little, equal or more authority than the
functional managers who control the resources.
The organizational structure might look like the one shown below.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Advantages
Disadvantages
There are two bosses. Who is listened to first, the functional manager or the project
manager?
Requires strong negotiating skills from the project manager.
Sub-optimization is a danger as project managers might hoard resources for their
own project and consequently harming other projects.
It should be noted that the project manager is the primary contact point with the customer
no matter which organizational form is chosen. Consequently, communication and flexibility
are enhanced due to one person having the responsibility for the successful completion of
the project.
Project management involves planning, directing and controlling resources (people,
equipment and material) to meet the technical, cost and time constraints of the project.
The primary challenge of project management is to achieve all of the project goals within
the given constraint.
1. Strategic Alignment. Ensures what is being delivered is right and will deliver real value
against the business opportunity.
2. Clear Focus and Objectives. Ensures there’s a prper plan for executing on strategic
goals.
3. Quality Control. Ensures the quality of whatever is being dlivered, consistently hits the
mark.
4. Leadership. Brings leadership and direction to projects.
5. Risk Management. Ensues risks are properly managed and mitigated against to avoid
becoming issues.
6. Orderly Process. Ensures proper project process is followed throughout the project life
cycle.
7. Subject Matter Expertise. Someone needs to be able to understand if everyone’s
doing what they should.
8. Continuous Oversight. Ensures a project’s progress is tracked and reported properly.
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9. Managing and Learning from Failure and Success. It learn from the successes and
failures of the past.
Management of projects involves three phases. These are the following:
1. Planning. This includes goal setting, defining the project, and team organization
2. Scheduling. This phase relates people, money, and supplies to specific activities
and relates these activities to each other.
3. Controlling. Here the firm monitors resources, costs, quality, and budgets. It also
revises or changes plans and shifts resources to meet time and cost demands.
Project Planning
In this phase a project organization is usually formed to make sure existing programs
continue to run smoothly on a day to day basis while new projects are successfully
completed.
Project Scheduling
This phase involves sequencing and allotting time to all project activities. The manager
decides how long each activity will take and compute how many people and materials will
be needed at each stage of production. Managers also chart separate schedules for
personnel needs by type of skill. Gantt charts are also used in scheduling.
Gantt charts are low-cost planning charts used in scheduling resources and alloted time.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Project Controlling
This phase involves close monitoring of resources, cost, quality, and budgets by using a
feedback loop to revise the project plan and shift resources to where they are needed
most.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Definition
This stage has two parts. The first part involves conceptualizing the project. The
organization, here, may recognize the need for the project or respond to a request
for a proposal from a potential customer or client. The second part involves
conducting the feasibility studies. This examines the expected costs, benefits and
risks of undertaking the project.
Goals, specifications, tasks, responsibilities and teams for the project are set; the
project manager is also appointed.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
This stage is sometimes referred to as the initiation stage. A business problem (or an
opportunity) is usually identified and might solicit several solutions. The feasibility
then is conducted to explore the ability of different solutions in solving the problem or
taking advantage of the opportunity at hand.
Planning
This stage spells out details of the work and the risks involved. This entails preparing
specifics for the following:
The project is now ready for execution after all these plans are put in place.
Execution
Monitoring and controlling activities are executed to ensure that the deliverables of
the project are met. Changes, risks and issues are identified and reviewed against
the acceptance criteria.
This phase often accounts for the majority of time and resources consumed by a
project.
Delivery
Involves delivering the final deliverable to the customer, handing over project
documentation, terminating supplier contracts, releasing project resources
(reassigning personnel and dealing with any leftover materials and equipment) and
communicating the closure of the project to all stakeholders.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
A post implementation review is undertaken to quantify the overall success of the
project and list any lessons learned for future projects.
Closure is achieved.
It should be noted that the phases can overlap so that firms are able to reduce the time
necessary to move through the life cycle and, consequently, generate some competitive
advantage and cost savings. Careful coordination of activities will minimize the risk of
wastage that may occur.
Network-Planning Models
Two of the most commonly used network planning models to fast track planning and
monitoring of projects were developed in the 1950s: the Critical Path Method (CPM) and
the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). The two were developed for different
purposes but, through the years, distinguishing features of CPM and PERT have
diminished.
CPM and PERT owe their development from the Gantt chart. Relationships of
activities to time are easy to see in a Gantt chart for small projects. These
interrelationships, however, become extremely difficult to visualize and to work with for
projects when the number of activities is increased (as include more than 25 activities). It
has no direct procedure also for determining the critical path (CP), which is of great
practical value when identified.
The CP in a project refers to the sequence of activities that form the longest chain in
terms of completion time. Delaying an activity in the critical path means a delay in the entire
project. It is also important then that scheduling information and the time for each of the
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
activities are determined properly. Both CPM and PERT calculate when an activity must
start and end. This, in turn, determines whether the activity belongs to the critical path.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Example 1. CPM with a Single Time Estimate2.4.1. CPM with a Single Time Es
Assume that you have a group assignment that requires a decision on whether you
should invest in a company. You are instructed to perform the analysis in the following four
steps:
Find the CP
Solution:
1. Identify each activity to be done in the project and estimate how long it will take to
complete each activity. We identify the activities as follows: A(1), B(2), C(1), D(1) in
our simple project. The numbers represent the expected duration of the activity.
2. Determine the required sequence of activities and construct a network reflecting the
precedence relationships. First, identify the immediate predecessors associated with
an activity. Activity A needs to be completed before activities B and C can start. B
and C need to be completed before D can start. Information from steps 1 & 2 can be
translated into the following network and table:
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
IMMEDIATE TIME
DESIGNATION
PREDECESSORS (WEEKS)
Select company A None 1
Obtain annual report and perform ratio
B A 2
analysis
Collect stock price data and perform
C A 1
technical analysis
Review data and make a decision D B and C 1
3. Determine the CP. Consider each sequence of activities that runs from the beginning
to the end of the project. The simple project here shows two paths: A-B-D and A-C-
D. Since CP is the path where the sum of the activity times is the longest, A-B-D with
4 days, therefore is the CP. Any activity that is delayed along this CP will delay the
entire project.
4. Determine the early start/finish and late start/finish schedule. Scheduling the project
requires finding when each activity needs to start and finish. For some activities,
there may be a slack time or some leeway in terms of when it can start and finish.
For each of the activity, we calculate the early start (ES), early finish (EF), late start
(LS) and the late finish (LF) times. The difference between the late start time and
early start time is the slack time. These are usually represented as shown in the
figure below.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
2. To find LF and LS times, start from the end of the network and work toward the front.
1.1. Consider activity D. The earliest that it can be done is at time 4; and if we do
not want to delay the completion of the project, the LF needs to be set to 4.
With a duration of 1, the latest that D can start is 3.
1.2. Now consider activity C. C must be done by time 3 so that D can start, so C �s
LF is 3 and its LS is 2. Notice the difference between the ES and LS and LF:
This activity has one week of slack time. Activity B must be done by time 3 so
that D can start, so its LF is 3 and LS is 1. There is no slack in B.
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
1.3. Finally, activity A must be done so that B and C can start. Because B must start
earlier than C, and A must get done in time for B to start, the LF for A is 1.
Finally, the LS for A is 0. Notice there is no slack in activities A, B and D. The
final network should look like the one below.
Write report E 1 5 9
1. Calculate the expected (ET) and variances (σ2) for each of the activities.
The formula for these calculations are
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
2. Determine the critical path. Using the expected times, a critical path is
calculated in the same way as the single time case. Following the steps just
outlined, the table shows the computed expected times and variances.
EXPECTED ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY TIME ESTIMATES
ACTIVITY TIMES (ET) VARIANCES
DESIGNATION
a m b
Design A 10 22 28 21 9
Build prototype B 4 4 10 5 1
Evaluate equipment C 4 6 14 7 2 7⁄9
Test prototype D 1 2 3 2 1⁄9
Write report E 1 5 9 5 1 7⁄9
Write methods report F 7 8 9 8 1⁄9
Write final report G 2 2 2 2 0
Mechanics
1. Sum the variance values associated with each activity on the critical path.
2. Substitute this figure, along with the project due date and the project
expected completion time, into the Z transformation formula. This formula
is
3. Calculate the value of Z, which is the number of standard deviations (of a
standard normal distribution) that the project due date is from the expected
completion time.
The project network was created the same as we did previously. The CP is
determined in the same way it was computed for the one-time example above. The
difference is that the activity times are weighted averages and, hence, there is a difference
in computing probabilities of completion.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Because there are two critical paths in the network, we use the information on
variances in deciding which is CP is more likely to be completed. A conservative approach
dictates using the path with the largest total variance to focus management’s attention on
the activities most likely to exhibit broad variations. On this basis, the variances associated
with activities A, C, F and G would be used to find the probability of completion. Thus, Σσ2cp =
9 + 2 7⁄9 + 1⁄9 + 0 = 11.89 . Suppose management asks for the probability of completing the
project in 35 weeks. D, then, is 35. The expected completion time was found to be 38.
Figure 3.5 below illustrates both conventions for a small portion of the airline turnaround
Gantt Chart in Figure 3.4. In Figure 3.5(a), activity A must finished before activity B is
started, and B must, in turn, be completed before C begins. Activity A represents “deplaning
passengers,” while B is “cabin cleaning,” and C is “boarding new passengers.” Figures
3.5(e) and 3.5(f) show that the AOA approach sometimes needs the addition of a dummy
activity to clarify relationships. It does not consumes time or resources, but is required when
a network has two activities with identical starting and ending events, or when two or more
follow some, but not all, “preceding” activities.
Example 1.
Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing, Inc., has long been delaying the expense of
installing air pollution control equipment in its facility. The EPA has recently given the
manufacturer 16 weeks to install a complex air filter system. Milwaukee Paper has
been warned that it may be forced to close the facility unless the device is installed in
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
the allotted time. The plant manager wants to make sure that installation of the
filtering system progresses smoothly and on time.
Given the following information, develop a table showing activity precedence
relationships.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
MODULE5: FORECASTING
Lesson presentation
This module discusses basic forecasting, in which the main purpose is to make good
estimates. Almost everyday OM managers make decisions with uncertain outcomes or
results. No one can see what will happen tomorrow, yet managers need to come up with a
wise decisions and implement them in order to move the organization forward.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting what will happen in the future. Sometimes
that is determined by a mathematical method; sometimes it is based on the intuition of the
operations manager. Most forecasts and end decisions are a combination of both.
A forecast is usually classified by the future time horizon that it covers. It falls into three
categories:
1. Short range forecast. While it can be up to one year, this forecast is usually used for three
months or less. It is used for planning purchases, hiring, job assignments, production levels,
and the like.
2. Medium range forecast. This is generally three months to three years. Medium range
forecasts are used for sales and production planning, budgeting, and analysis of different
operating plans.
3. Long range forecast. Generally three years or more in time span, it is used for new products,
capital expenditures, facility expansion, relocation, and research and development.
Types of Forecasts
There are three major types of forecasting, regardless of time horizon, that are used by
organizations.
1. Economic forecasts address the business cycle by predicting housing starts, inflation rates,
money supplies, and other planning indicators.
3. Demand forecasts deal with the company's products and estimate consumer demand.
These are also referred to as sales forecasts, which have multiple purposes. In addition to
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driving scheduling, production, and capacity, they are also inputs to financial, personnel,
and marketing future plans.
Operations managers have two tools at their disposal by which to make decisions: actual
data and forecasts. The forecast is the only estimate of demand until actual demand
becomes known. Let us discuss the impact of product demand forecast on the following:
1. Human Resources. Hiring, training, and laying off workers all depend ion anticipated
demand. If the human resources department hire additional workers without warning, the
amount of training declines and the quality of the workforce suffers.
2. Capacity. When capacity is inadequate, the resulting shortage can lead to loss of
customers and market share.
3. Supply-Chain Management. Good supplier relations and the ensuing price advantages
for materials and parts depend on accurate forecasts.
Forecasting System
Routinely repeat these steps, regardless of the time horizon, to stay abreast of changes in
regard to internal and external factors.
Forecasting Approaches
1. Jury of executive opinion. This is based on the inputs and decisions of high-level experts or
management.
2. Delphi method. Decision makers, staff, and respondents all meet to develop the forecast.
Every shareholder in the process provides input.
3. Sales force composite. Each sales person provides an individual estimate which is reviewed
for realism by management, and then combined for a big picture view.
B. Moving Average is a forecast technique that uses a number of historical actual data
values to generate a forecast. This is useful if we can assume that market demands will
stay fairly steady over time. The formula is as follows:
Weighted Moving Average. When a detectable trend or pattern exists, weights can
be used to give more emphasis on recent values. This practice makes forecasting
techniques more responsive to changes because more recent periods may be more
heavily weighted. A weighted moving average may be expressed mathematically as:
Σ(weight for period n)(Demand in period n)
Weighted moving average = --------------------------------------------------------------
Σ Weights
Example: Donna’s Garden Supply wants to forecast storage shed sales by weighing
the past 3 months, with more weight given to recent data to make them more
significant.
Month Actual Shed Sales 3-Month Moving Average
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 [(10 x 1) +(12 x 2) + (13 x 3)]/6 = 12.2
May 19 [(12 x 1) + (13 x 2) + (16 x 3)]/6 = 14.3
June 23 [(13 x 1) + (16 x 2) + (19 x 3)]/6 = 17
July 26 [(16 x 1) + (19 x 2) + (23 x 3)]/6 = 20.5
August 30 [(19 x 1) + (23 x 2) + (26 x 3))/6 = 23.8
September 28 [(23 x 1) + (26 x 2) + (30 x 3)]/6 = 27.5
October 18 [(26 x 1) + (30 x 2) + (38 x 3)]/6 = 28.3
November 16 [(30 x 1)+ (28 x 2) + (18 x 3)]/6 = 23.3
December 14 [(28 x 1) + (18 x 2) +(16 x 3)]/6 = 18.7
New forecast = Last period’s forecast + α(Last period’s actual demand - Last
period’s forecast)
Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1) where α = smoothing constant (0 ≤ α
≥ 1)
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Example1. In January, a car dealer predicted February demand for 142 Ford Mustang.
Actual
February demand was 153 autos. Using a smoothing constant chosen by management
of α = .20, find the forecast March demand using the exponential smoothing model.
Solution: Ft = Ft-1 + α(At-1 - Ft-1)
FMarch = 142 + .2(153 - 142) = 144.2,
Hence the March demand forecast for Ford Mustang is 144.
Example2: During the past 8 quarters, the Port of Baltimore has unloaded large
quantities of grain from ships. The port’s operations manager wants to test the use of
exponential smoothing to see how well the technique works in predicting tonnage unloaded.
He guesses that the forecast of grain loaded in the first quarter was 175 tons. Make a
forecast using two values of α: α = .10 and α = .50.
D. Trend Projection. Trend projection is a technique that fits a trend line to a series of
historical data points and then projects the line into the future for medium to long-range
forecasts. We shall be using the least-squares method whose formula is as follows:
^y =a+bx
b=
∑ xy−n x̄ ȳ
b = slope , ∑ x 2−n x̄ 2
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Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Example: Using the previous example, determine the trend equation and forecast actual
tonnage unloaded on the first quarter of 2020.
Solution
Quarter Actual Tonnage Unloaded, y Time Period, x x2 xy
b=
∑ xy−n x̄ ȳ
∑ x 2−n x̄ 2 = [(6589 - 8(4.5)(179.9)]/[204 - 8(4.5)2] = 2.68
a= ȳ−b x̄ = 179.9 - 2.68(4.5) = 167.8
Lesson presentation
This module discusses causal or associative forecasting method, in
which the main purpose is to make good estimates.
In the previous lesson, we have learned the different time series forecasting
methods. Today we will learn another method of forecasting which is the causal or
associative forecasting method.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
where:
nΣxy −∑ x ∑ y
b=
n∑ x 2 − ( ∑ x )2
∑ y−b∑ x
a=
n
y x y2 x2 xy
1 264 2.5 69,696 6.25 660
2 116 1.3 13,456 1.69 150.8
3 165 1.4 27,225 1.96 231
4 101 1 10,201 1 101
5 209 2 43,681 4 418
Sum 855 8.2 164,259 14.9 1560.8
6 ? 1.75
∑y = 855
∑x = 8.2
∑y^2 = 164,259
∑x^2 = 14.9
∑xy = 1560.8
n = 5
nΣxy −∑ x ∑ y
b=
n∑ x 2 − ( ∑ x )2
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
b = 109.23
∑ y−b∑ x
a=
n
a = -8.137
^y =− 8.137+109.23 x
When x = 1.75
y = -8.137 + 109.23(1.75)
y = 183
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Product-by-Value Analysis
- is a list of products, in descending order of their individual peso contribution to the
firm, as well as the total annual peso contribution of the product. A product-by-value
report allows management to evaluate positive strategies for each product.
One of the tools of QFD is the house of quality. The house of quality is a
graphic technique for defining the relationship between customer desires and product (or
service). To build the house of quality, we perform seven basic steps:
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
6. Value Analysis – is a review of successful products that takes place during the production
process.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
https://www.slideserve.com/valerie/operations-management-powerpoint-ppt-presentation
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Lesson development
Many organizations have found out that quality is a wonderful tonic for improving
operations. Managing quality helps build successful strategies of differentiation, low cost,
and response. For instance, defining customer quality expectations has helped Bose Corp.
Successfully differentiate its stereo speakers as among the best in the world. Nucor has
learned to produce quality steel at low cost by developing efficient processes that produce
consistent quality. And Dell Computers rapidly responds to customer orders because
quality systems, with little rework, have allowed it to achieve rapid throughput in its plants.
As can be seen from the figure below, improvements in quality help firms increase
sales and reduce costs, both of which can increase profitability. Increases in sales often
occur as firms speed response, increase or lower selling prices, and improve their
reputation for quality products. Similarly, improved quality allows costs to drop as firms
increase productivity and lower rework, scrap, and warranty costs.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Quality, or the lack of quality, affects the entire organization from supplier to customer and
from product design to maintenance. The figure below lays out the flow of activities for an
organization to use to achieve total quality management (TQM). A successful quality
strategy begins with an organizational culture that fosters quality, followed by an
understanding of the principles of quality, and then engaging employees in the necessary
activities to implement quality. When these things are done well, the organization typically
satisfies its customers and obtains a competitive advantage. The ultimate goal is to win
customers.
Definition of Quality
An operations manager’s objective is to build a total quality management system that
identifies and satisfies customer needs. Total quality management takes care of the
customer.
Quality, according to the American Society for Quality, is the totality of features and
characteristics of a product or service that bears on its ability to satisfy stated or implied
needs.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Others, however, believe that the definition of quality fall into several categories:
For user based: quality lies in the eyes of the beholder, and higher quality means better
performance, nicer features, and other improvements.
For manufacturing based: Quality means conforming to standards and “making it right the
first time.”
For Product based: Quality is a precise and measurable variable.
Implications of Quality:
The following are the reasons why quality is important:
1. Company reputation:
An organization can expect its reputation for quality-be it good or bad-to follow it. Quality will
show up in perceptions about the firm’s new products, employment practices, and supplier
relations.
0. Product liability:
The courts increasingly hold organizations that design, produce, or distribute faulty
products or services liable for damages or injuries resulting from their use.
0. Global implications:
For both company and a country to compete effectively in the global economy, products
must meet global quality, design, and price expectations. Inferior products harm a firm’s
profitability and the country’s balance of payments.
The cost of quality refers to the cost of doing things wrong--that is, the price of non
conformance. There are four major categories associated with cost of quality, they are:
Prevention costs - costs associated with reducing the potential for defective parts or
services (e.g., training, quality improvement programs).
Appraisal costs - costs related to evaluating products, processes, parts or services
(e.g., testing, labs, inspectors)
Internal failure - costs that occur before delivery of defective parts or services (e.g.,
rework, returned goods, liabilities, lost goodwill, costs to society).
External costs - costs that occur after delivery of defective parts or services (e.g.,
rework, returned goods, liabilities, lost goodwill, costs to society).
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
ISO 14000 - is a series of environmental management standards that contain five core
elements:
1. Environmental management
2. Auditing
3. Performance Evaluation
4. Labeling
5. Life cycle assessments
Total Quality Management (TQM)
refers to a quality emphasis that encompasses the entire organization, from
supplier to customer.
Stresses a commitment by management to have a continuing company wide drive
toward excellence in all aspects of products and services that are important to the
customer.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
W. Edwards Deming used 14 points to indicate how he implemented TQM.
SEVEN CONCEPTS FOR AN EFFECTIVE TQM PROGRAM
1. Continuous Improvement
TQM requires a never-ending process of continuous improvement that covers
people, equipment, suppliers, materials, and procedures. The basis of the philosophy is that
every aspect of an operation can be improved. The end goal is perfection, which is never
achieved but always sought.
The Japanese use the word Kaizen to describe this ongoing process of unending improvement
In the U.S., TQM and zero defects are also used to describe continuous improvement efforts.
0. Six Sigma
The term SIX SIGMA, popularized by Motorola, Honeywell, and General Electric, has
two meanings in TQM.
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
0. In Statistical sense, it describes a process, product, or service with an
extremely high capability (99.9997% accuracy), and 3.4 defects per million opportunities
(DPMO).
B. It is a program designed to reduce defects to help lower costs, save time, and
improve customer satisfaction. Six Sigma is a comprehensive system -- a strategy, a
discipline, and a set of tools -- for achieving and sustaining business success.
0. Employee Empowerment
This means involving employees in every step of the production process. Enlarging
employee jobs so that the added responsibility and authority is moved to the lowest level
possible in the organization. Techniques for building employee empowerment include the
following:
Quality circle is a group of employees who meet regularly with a facilitator to solve work-
related problems in their work areas. They are trained in planning, problem solving, and
statistical methods.
0. Benchmarking
Involves selecting a demonstrated standard of products, services, costs, or practices that
represent the very best performance for a process or activity. The steps for developing
benchmarks are:
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
0. Just-in-Time (JIT)
6.Taguchi Concepts
These are engineering and
experimental design methods to improve product and process design. The goal is to identify
the key component and process variables affecting product variation. Genichi Taguchi
provided us with three concepts aimed at improving both product and process quality. These
are:
Quality robust are products that can be produced uniformly and consistently in adverse
manufacturing and environmental conditions. Taguchi’s idea is to remove the effects of
adverse conditions instead of removing the causes. Taguchi suggests that removing the
Dr. Filemon C. Aguilar Memorial College of Las Piñas
Golden Gate Subdivision, Talon III, Las Piñas City
effects is often cheaper than removing the causes and more effective in producing a robust
product.
Quality loss function (QLF) is a mathematical function that identifies all costs connected with
poor quality and shows how these costs increase as product quality moves from what the
customer wants.
https://www.slideshare.net/RIZWANKHURRAM/heizer-06-15124618
Reinforcement